Cardinals Rumors

Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Deadline, Rotation, Outfield

By Anthony Franco | July 17, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Cardinals approach the trade deadline in an unfamiliar position as sellers. Sitting 12 games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, St. Louis joins the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates as the only National League clubs at least 10 games out of a playoff spot.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted last week the Cards were turning their attention towards 2024. He expanded upon that in a wide-ranging conversation with the St. Louis beat this afternoon (YouTube link via Charlie Marlow of 590 The Fan). Cards’ fans will want to check out the complete media session.

Mozeliak conceded there wasn’t much hope of avoiding a sell-off of short-term pieces at this stage of the season. “Does performance (over the next two weeks) change our direction? Probably not at this point. Where we are in the standings, it’s going to make it very difficult to change that.” He left open the possibility of something like an eight-game win streak altering the equation but it’s clear the front office anticipates parting with a number of veteran players over the next couple weeks.

The front office leader restated they’re prioritizing trade targets who could help the big league team in the near future. Mozeliak indicated they’d look for players who’d be MLB factors by 2024-25 and was rather blunt about their positional desires.

“We’re going to treat the trading deadline as ’pitching, pitching, pitching,'” he said. “That’s not to say we’re going to ignore a position player that may be uber-great … but the goal would be to address as much pitching as possible.”

It isn’t hard to understand why. The rotation has been St. Louis’ biggest problem area. Cardinals’ starters entered play Monday ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. That’s obviously insufficient to begin with and it’s only likely to thin out over the next few weeks. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are impending free agents who both seem likely to change uniforms by August 1. Adam Wainwright isn’t a trade candidate but he’s retiring at season’s end.

That’s three vacancies arising before 2024. Only Miles Mikolas seems a lock for next year’s season-opening rotation. Steven Matz is under contract for two more seasons but has bounced between the starting staff and the bullpen this year. Matthew Liberatore has been tagged for a 6.39 ERA over eight MLB starts. Righty Jake Woodford wasn’t much more effective in an early-season rotation look. Former first round draftee Zack Thompson could compete for a ’24 rotation spot but has one MLB start to his name.

While St. Louis will scour the trade market for upper level starting pitching, they’ll also have to dip into free agency next winter. Mozeliak conceded it’d be nearly impossible to envision the Cards not adding a free agent starter and indicated the organization should have enough financial flexibility to attack the open market.

Interestingly, he indicated the organization’s approach to pitching acquisition could be a little different moving forward. St. Louis has prioritized ground-ball pitchers in recent seasons, relying on an excellent infield defense to support a pitch-to-contact staff. That hasn’t worked this year. St. Louis has allowed an MLB-worst .324 batting average on grounders. That’s a huge change from seasons past, one Mozeliak admitted could impact the way the front office approaches things.

The team is likely to prioritize “more swing-and-miss versus ground-ball types,” he said. Only the Rockies and Royals have gotten a lower strikeout rate out of their rotation than St. Louis’ 18.4% clip. The bullpen has been more effective, ranking 12th with a 24.5% strikeout percentage.

A few members of the relief corps are also likely to be on the way out. The Cards already designated lefty Génesis Cabrera for assignment this morning. Mozeliak called that a “change of scenery” decision, noting that Cabrera is hopeful of landing a higher-leverage role than the one he’d received in St. Louis. Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton seem likely to be dealt strictly because of their contractual situations. Both are impending free agents and having quality seasons, with the flamethrowing Hicks standing out as a particularly desirable rental trade chip.

There aren’t any true rentals on the position player side, although the Cards seem likely to opt for a $1MM buyout over a $12.5MM club option on shortstop Paul DeJong. A middle infield logjam also comprising Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and eventually top prospect Masyn Winn makes a DeJong trade seem likely.

Left fielder Tyler O’Neill has seemed a potential trade candidate amidst a season decimated by back issues. Mozeliak didn’t expressly rule that out but seemed to cast some doubt on that possibility today, saying the Cardinals anticipated playing O’Neill as their everyday left fielder. He has been on the injured list since May 4 but could be reinstated before tomorrow’s game against Miami.

O’Neill is playing this season on a $4.95MM salary. The club can retain him for one more season via arbitration. St. Louis has enough outfield depth that O’Neill could be a non-tender candidate next winter, though it’s also possible they deal another outfielder to clear space. Star rookie Jordan Walker isn’t going anywhere, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last week the Cards were telling other clubs they had no intention of moving Lars Nootbaar.

That arguably leaves Dylan Carlson as an odd man out. The former top prospect is hitting .243/.350/.376 over 203 trips to the plate. He reaches arbitration for the first time next winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com indicated this evening (on Twitter) the Yankees could have some interest in Carlson as they search for outfield help.

Of course, there are no bigger names the Cardinals could put on the trade market than their star corner infield tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Mozeliak declined to declare either player categorically untouchable but strongly downplayed the possibility of moving either. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.” As he subsequently noted, both players have full no-trade rights, and it seems very unlikely a St. Louis team gearing back up for 2024 would want to part with either of its top two position players regardless.

Cardinals Sign Ryan Tepera

By Darragh McDonald | July 17, 2023 at 4:15pm CDT

The Cardinals have signed right-hander Ryan Tepera, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat relaying word from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. It seems as though Tepera will take the roster spot of Génesis Cabrera, whose designation for assignment was reported earlier.

Tepera, 35, has plenty of years of effective relief work on his résumé but 2023 has been challenging. He began the year with the Angels but posted a 7.27 earned run average through 10 outings before that club designated him for assignment and released him. The righty then landed with the Rangers on a minor league deal and reported to their Triple-A club. He tossed eight scoreless innings for Round Rock but didn’t get a roster spot with the Rangers and opted out of that deal last week.

Although the results earlier in the year weren’t pretty, there’s plenty of logic to this pickup for the Cards. Coming into this year, Tepera had a 3.50 career ERA in 354 2/3 innings, so the rough patch with the Halos to start this season represents a drop in the pocket in terms of his larger body of work. His strikeout rate was over 30% in each of 2020 and 2021 before tailing off to the 20% range in the past two seasons, but he just struck out 37.9% of opponents during his stint in Round Rock.

There’s also no financial risk for the Cards. Tepera signed a two-year, $14MM deal with the Angels prior to the 2022 campaign. Though he had a solid 3.61 ERA last year, his struggles a few months back got him released. The Angels are still on the hook for the majority of what’s left of that deal and the Cardinals will only be responsible for the prorated league minimum for any time Tepera spends on their roster.

The Cards have had a disappointing season and are currently 40-53 on the year, putting them in last place in the National League Central and 11.5 games out of a playoff spot. Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to go into the deadline as sellers, making moves that set the club up for 2024. The bullpen features some impending free agents like Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton would would make sense as trade candidates, with Tepera perhaps moving up the bullpen chart in the wake of whatever moves the Cards make. He could theoretically pitch himself into being a candidate himself, though he’ll only two weeks to do so, with the deadline on August 1.

Rays Showing Interest In Several Veteran Starters

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2023 at 11:27am CDT

The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.

Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.

While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.

Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.

As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.

Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.

Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.

There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.

Cardinals To Designate Genesis Cabrera For Assignment

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2023 at 9:34am CDT

The Cardinals are planning to designate left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. They’ll have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers once the move is official.

Cabrera, 26, posted a sharp 3.41 ERA in 92 1/3 innings with the Cards from 2020-21, but he’s never displayed even average command at the MLB level and has struggled over the past two seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2022, the southpaw carries a 4.82 ERA with a below-average 20.8% strikeout rate and much higher-than-average 11.3% walk rate. Cabrera’s heater averaged 97.9 mph during 2021, arguably his peak season, but that velocity is down two miles per hour from that level in 2023, sitting at 95.9 mph. He’s also been extremely home-run prone dating back to last year, averaging 1.64 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Even with the downturn in velocity and pedestrian strikeout rate over the past two seasons, there’s still some reason to believe Cabrera is capable of more. Averaging roughly 96 mph from the left side is of note, even if that’s down from peak levels, and Cabrera sports a very strong 13.6% swinging-strike rate this season. He’s also induced chases off the plate at an above-average 32.6% clip. There’s little doubt that Cabrera has intriguing raw stuff, and another team may have a different plan to maximize his arsenal.

Beyond his power repertoire, Cabrera is affordable ($950K salary in 2023), controllable and has a minor league option remaining. He entered the current season with just over three years of Major League service time, so he can be controlled through the 2025 campaign. He’s unlikely to fetch a major price in a trade, but another club could view him as an interesting buy-low candidate who could contribute not just this year but for another two seasons.

Cabrera’s DFA figures to be the first of a broad-reaching slate of roster changes for the Cardinals in the next few weeks. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already suggested that the 2024 season will be his focus at this year’s deadline, and the Cards are expected to at the very least shop rental players like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong and Chris Stratton. Broader-reaching changes are possible — the Cards have a glut of MLB-ready outfielders, for instance — but the Cardinals aren’t expected to trade core players and have given no indication that a larger-scale teardown is coming as a result of this year’s disastrous season.

Central Notes: Perez, Tellez, Jimenez, Kelly, O’Neill, Knizner

By Mark Polishuk | July 16, 2023 at 11:11pm CDT

Salvador Perez suffered a left hamstring strain while scoring a run in today’s 8-4 Royals victory over the Rays. Perez scored from first base on a MJ Melendez double, but the extra effort was costly for the veteran catcher, and a trip to the injured list now seems likely. The time lost will depend on the grade of Perez’s strain, and manager Matt Quartraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the club will have more information on Monday.

An injury to Perez just adds to a nightmare of a season for the Royals, as they are a measly 27-67 after today’s win. Perez is hitting .258/.299/.444 with 15 home runs over 345 plate apperances, translating to below-average (97 wRC+) overall offense for the 33-year-old backstop. It represents a dropoff from Perez’s usual production, yet he remains one of the best bats on a Royals team that has almost entirely underachieved. Melendez and Freddy Fermin seem likely to take over catching duties in the event of Perez hitting the IL, and if you’re wondering if the injury might impact Perez’s trade value, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo already stated last month that Perez isn’t going anywhere.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Stroman, Burnes, Wainwright

By Nick Deeds | July 15, 2023 at 5:32pm CDT

As the trade deadline on August 1 creeps ever closer, the Cubs stand as one of a handful of teams that has yet to make a decision regarding whether they will be buyers or sellers this trade season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to 670 The Score on Friday regarding the club’s plans. Hoyer asserted that “there is nothing we want more than to add” at the coming deadline, though he made clear the club was willing to pivot if buying at the deadline seemed imprudent.

The Cubs currently sit at a record of 43-48 following today’s win against the Red Sox, a record that will leave them seven games out of first place following this evening’s game between the Reds and Brewers. While the club’s +27 run differential is by far the best in the NL Central, Hoyer acknowledged that in order to justify buying at the deadline, “We need to make up ground on first place, and we need to make up ground on .500.”

Should the Cubs fail to do so over the next two weeks, the club seems poised to shop players like center fielder Cody Bellinger and right-hander Marcus Stroman to contending clubs. Stroman, whose lack of extension talks with the club has been well documented, told reporters (including Bruce Levine of The Score) today that he does not expect an extension offer from the Cubs prior to the trade deadline. Even if he’s traded, however, Stroman indicated he would have interest in returning to Chicago on a new contract during the offseason. Stroman can opt-out of the final year and $21MM on his contract after the 2023 campaign comes to a close, and seems all but certain to do so after posting a 2.88 ERA in 118 2/3 innings across his first 20 starts of the season.

More from around the NL Central:

While Stroman’s future is up in the air, the same can’t be said for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, who told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that GM Matt Arnold has privately told him that he will not be traded. That matches what Arnold has said publicly, as he previously indicated that Milwaukee would look to add at the deadline and would not consider moving either Burnes or shortstop Willy Adames. The news hardly comes as a surprise given the step back Burnes has taken this season relative to the Cy Young-caliber performance he offered from 2020-22, during which time he posted a 2.62 ERA and 2.40 FIP across 428 2/3 innings of work. In 2023, Burnes has been more solid than spectacular, with a 3.73 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 19 starts with a reduced 24.8% strikeout rate.
Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright has endured a difficult season as he prepares to retire following the 2023 campaign. In 11 starts with St. Louis this season, Wainwright posted a ghastly 7.66 ERA and 5.87 FIP prior to heading to the injured list prior to the All-Star break with a shoulder strain. Wainwright is expected to return to the mound this season, however, and manager Oli Marmol today provided an update on the veteran’s status. In conversation with reporters, including MLB.com’s John Denton, Marmol noted that Wainwright was set to resume throwing off a mound on Monday after receiving multiple shots in his shoulder to help alleviate pain. Once back on the mound, Wainwright will be built up to return to the club’s rotation later this season.

Injury Notes: Edman, Candelario, Gausman, Sborz

By Mark Polishuk | July 15, 2023 at 2:15pm CDT

Tommy Edman was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list on July 7, as the multi-positional regular was suffering from inflammation in right wrist. A clean MRI provided some hope that Edman could be back soon after the All-Star break, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com) that Edman received an injection in his wrist. As a result, Marmol said it will be “several more days” before Edman can return.

Rotating between shortstop, second base, center field, and right field this season, Edman’s versatility and switch-hitting bat have been very helpful to St. Louis, even if his production at the plate has dropped off. Edman had a 108 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances in 2022, but he had only a 91 wRC+ (and a .237/.303/.391 slash line) over 307 PA thus far in 2023. It could be that the move to the outfield is hurting Edman’s hitting, as his offense has badly tailed off since the Cardinals started regularly starting him in center field in late May. With St. Louis looking like probable sellers at the deadline, it remains to be seen how Edman might fit into what could be a remodeled mix around the diamond, though the first order of business for the 28-year-old is just to get healthy. To be clear, there hasn’t been much trade buzz around Edman himself, and his lingering injury would certainly seem like a further obstacle to any sort of deal.

More injury updates from around baseball…

Jeimer Candelario is a much clearer trade candidate as the deadline approaches, but the Nationals third baseman got an injury scare of his own yesterday when he injured his thumb during a pregame fielding drill. Manager Davey Martinez described the injury as a bone bruise, and Candelario tried to play through the pain but had to leave the game after his first at-bat. Candelario is day to day for now, as Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the infielder was hoping to be ready as soon as tonight’s game with the Cardinals. While there’s no truly good time for an injury, the timing is particularly bad for Candelario and the Nats with the deadline approaching. Even a minimal IL stint will likely impact the club’s chances of maximizing value in a trade, or it could scuttle the chances of a deal altogether.
Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman was scratched from his scheduled start today due to soreness in his left side, with Chris Bassitt instead taking the hill against the Diamondbacks. Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (Twitter links) and other reporters that Gausman first felt the discomfort after his last start before the All-Star break, but an MRI didn’t reveal any injury. As such, Gausman might be able to return as early as Tuesday when the Blue Jays begin a series with the Padres. It’s no surprise that Toronto is being cautious with their ace, as a healthy Gausman (who leads all MLB pitchers with 4.0 fWAR) is critical to the Jays’ chances of reaching the postseason.
The Rangers placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis, with a backdated placement date of July 12. Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Sborz has been rocked for nine earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings (four appearances) of work, spoiling what had been a quietly solid season for the righty in the Texas bullpen. In his previous 34 1/3 innings, Sborz had posted a 2.62 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .460 OPS. Texas has already made an early trade for Aroldis Chapman in an attempt to shore up its inconsistent bullpen, and more relief help might be needed by the deadline if Sborz will now miss a significant amount of time.

Cardinals To Sign First-Rounder Chase Davis

By Mark Polishuk | July 15, 2023 at 12:46pm CDT

The Cardinals are expected to finalize their agreement with 21st overall pick Chase Davis today, according to MLB.com’s John Denton (Twitter link). The 21st selection has a slot value of $3,618,200, but Davis’ bonus isn’t known since Denton has since corrected his intial report about how much the outfielder would receive. Fangraphs ranked Davis as the 16th-best prospect in the 2023 class, with MLB Pipeline (22nd), Baseball America (28th), The Athletic’s Keith Law (30th), and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (31st) all only slightly less enthused about the 21-year-old outfielder’s potential.

As BA’s scouting report notes, “Davis remains a divisive prospect, perhaps given his history of contact questions,” but he significantly cut back his strikeouts during his most recent college season. This only added to a strong offensive profile that includes hard contact and the ability to hit to all fields, plus power grades in the 55-60 range. Davis has an excellent throwing arm and looks to have a pretty safe floor as an above-average corner outfielder, with enough speed that he might be able to handle center field.

The 21-year-old Davis will look to be the latest in a long line of homegrown Cardinals position players to reach the majors, though with so many of those players now in St. Louis, the Cards’ current top prospect list is mostly pitcher-heavy at the top (with the notable exception of shortstop Masyn Winn). While teams don’t draft to address needs at the moment, it is interesting to note that the Cardinals are adding another outfielder at a time when the club might be readying itself to move some of its position-player surplus for longer-term pitching assets at the trade deadline.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

By Darragh McDonald | July 14, 2023 at 1:44pm CDT

The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

The Well-Timed Breakout Of Jordan Hicks

By Darragh McDonald | July 12, 2023 at 9:56pm CDT

Not a lot has gone right for the Cardinals this year. They came into the season with a talented roster and hopes of contention but have repeatedly struggled to get into a groove. Their record sits at 38-52, placing them 11.5 games back in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. They don’t often find themselves as clear deadline sellers, having only once finished below .500 this century, which was way back in 2007. But barring a massive turnaround in the next three weeks, they will likely be selling this year, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak essentially admitted earlier today.

Thankfully, there are some factors that could make this a particularly fruitful sell-off for the Cards. For one thing, the expanded playoffs and some wide-open divisional races are seemingly making this year a seller’s market. The Cards have a number of controllable position players they could move without significantly hurting their chances of returning to contention next year. They also have some impending free agents of note, such as Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Another impending free agent who should be garnering plenty of interest is reliever Jordan Hicks. The fireballer has been in the club’s bullpen since 2018, though Tommy John surgery in June 2019 prevented him from appearing in the latter half of that campaign or at any point in 2020.

His performance in his career has been unusual in that he has elite velocity, averaging over 100 mph on his fastball in his career. But somehow, that hasn’t translated into the huge strikeout numbers one would expect. By the end of the 2022 season, he had tossed 177 2/3 innings over 147 outings, striking out 23% of batters faced. That strikeout rate is right around league average, whereas other gas-spewing pitchers like Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz or Félix Bautista often run their rates into the 40s or even the 50s.

Here in 2023, Hicks seems to have finally unlocked a new level in that department. He’s thrown 36 2/3 innings over 36 outings, punching out 32.9% of batters faced. His 13.8% walk rate is still on the high side but that’s right in line with his previous work and not too dissimilar from other late-inning arms. Chapman has walked 12.4% of batters faced in his career. Josh Hader is at 10.2% in his career and 11.3% since the start of 2020. Hicks is getting fewer ground balls than in previous seasons but his 53.5% rate this year is still well above league average.

The new strikeout rate has helped to lower his ERA to 3.93, compared to 4.84 last year and 5.40 the year before. He likely deserves even better, as his .357 batting average on balls in play is above league average and above his marks in previous seasons. His 3.47 SIERA and 3.12 FIP suggest he could get even better results if that BABIP normalizes going forward. He’s also produced these results while ascending into the closer’s role with Ryan Helsley on the injured list, with Hicks racking up seven saves in the past four weeks.

One thing that might be fuelling this breakout is a change in his pitch mix. He has primarily been a sinker-slider guy in his career, with 90% of his offerings being one of those two pitches, while also occasionally mixing in changeups, cutters and four-seam fastballs. According to Statcast, Hicks had thrown only 20 four-seamers prior to his surgery and then just nine over the past two seasons. He has thrown 73 of them this year. He’s also added a sweeper, throwing 150 of those this year, with opponents batting just .107 and slugging just .250 in plate appearances ending with that offering. The sweeper seems to pair well with his sinker/two-seamer, as shown in this tweet from Rob Friedman, aka the Pitching Ninja.

This is still just a few months of results we’re talking about, but the change in repertoire seems to point to a legitimate progression as opposed to just small sample noise. The Cardinals would surely have preferred to be in contention right now, using this new and improved version of Hicks to bolster their chances in a postseason race. But they will at least have the opportunity to squeeze some extra future value out of it via trade prior to the upcoming deadline. If he had discovered this new level of performance next year instead, they may not have benefited from it at all.

The timing is also potentially significant for Hicks personally, allowing him to go into the open market with a strong platform season if he can maintain it for the next few months. He cracked the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster in 2018 when he was just 21 years old and has never been optioned, putting him on pace to finish this season with exactly six seasons of service time and thus qualify for free agency just after he turns 27 years old in September. Relief pitchers don’t usually secure very long deals in free agency. No one has ever topped five years and contracts of that length are quite rare.

Some clubs may be skeptical given that he has a longer track record of being just okay and will have a much smaller span of time with the improvements. But we have seen clubs take significant gambles on pitchers based on limited samples before. Drew Pomeranz was a starter for much of his career but transitioned into more of a relief role in 2018 and 2019 before getting a four-year, $34MM deal from the Padres. It was a similar story for Liam Hendriks, who had been closing for two years, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, before landing a $54MM guarantee over three years from the White Sox. Robert Suarez spent most of his career in Japan before parlaying one strong MLB season into $46MM over five years.

That’s not to say that Hicks is a lock to secure a contract similar to those, especially since few of those deals have worked out well for the signing clubs, which may lead to more hesitancy in the relief market this offseason. But clubs have shown they are willing to bet on a small sample of improved results when they have reason to believe it could be carried forward. Those three pitchers were all in their early 30s when they secured their deals, whereas Hicks will be significantly younger.

Hicks has always had the velocity and now seems to be figuring out how it deploy it in a more effective way than he ever has before. With his quick rise through the minor leagues and time missed due to his surgery, he’ll be hitting the open market at an usually young age for a relief pitcher and with very few total innings on his arm. For now, he should be able to help the Cardinals recoup some extra value at the deadline before helping himself cash in this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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