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Yankees v. Rays: Who Will Advance?

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The rival Yankees and Rays entered the season as the two favorites in the AL East, and they did indeed finish atop the division. The Rays handily outdid the Yankees, though, finishing with a 40-20 record to New York’s 33-27 mark. The Rays got there in part because they dominated the Yankees in the regular season with eight victories in the teams’ 10 contests. However, the clubs have been much more evenly matched in their ALDS showdown. At 2-2, they’ll meet for the decisive Game 5 of the series on Friday.

To this point, the offensive excellence of designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton – who already has four home runs in the series – has led the Yankees. In all likelihood, though, New York will need a sterling performance from ace Gerrit Cole, a 30-year-old who’s starting on short rest for the first time in his career, in order to advance. The club signed Cole for this type of game when it landed the ex-Pirate and Astro on a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last offseason. Cole has since gone 2-0 in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory against the Rays, and allowed five earned runs on 12 hits with a 21:2 K:BB ratio over 13 innings.

With a payroll that falls well short of the Yankees’, the Rays have used a mix of creativity and shrewdly acquired talent to earn a place among the game’s elite teams. They revolutionized the opener strategy a couple years ago, and they won’t be afraid to turn to it yet again Friday. Righty Tyler Glasnow, Cole’s former Pirates teammate, will take the ball in Game 5 at the start; however, Glasnow’s only on two days’ rest, and manager Kevin Cash said on Friday that the Rays will utilize 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell early if there’s a need for it, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Snell could further strengthen a bullpen that was one of the majors’ best during the regular season.

So far in the series, the Yankees have outscored Glasnow, Snell & Co. by a 23-19 count. But none of that matters heading into a do-or-die Game 5. Which team do you expect to finish with more runs Friday and advance to face the Astros in the ALCS?

(Poll link for app users)

Yankees, Rays Set Game 5 Starters

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It will be Gerrit Cole against Tyler Glasnow in tomorrow’s deciding Game 5 of the ALDS matchup between the Yankees and Rays.  New York recorded a 5-1 win in Game 4 tonight to force the winner-take-all contest on Friday at Petco Park (the Rays will be the designated home team).

It isn’t any shock that Cole will get the call for the Yankees’ biggest game of the season.  Signed to a nine-year, $324MM free agent deal last winter, Cole lived up to that ace billing in the regular season and is 2-0 in two playoff starts.  The home run issues that plagued Cole during the season have again been something of an issue in the postseason, as he has surrendered three long balls in 13 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching during these playoffs.

Two of those homers came in Game 1 of the ALDS, though Cole held on for a quality start in allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings of work, while recording eight strikeouts.  Counting the regular season, Game 5 will be the fifth time the Rays have faced Cole in 2020.  It will also mark the first time in Cole’s eight-year career that he has started a game on only three days’ rest, though it’s safe to assume manager Aaron Boone will have his entire cadre of pitchers available should Cole run into any early struggles.

The same tactic will almost surely apply for Glasnow and the Rays, as Glasnow will start on just two days’ rest after pitching five innings in Game 2 (allowing four runs on three hits and three walks, with 10 strikeouts).  Given the even shorter amount of time between games for Glasnow, he might also be a candidate for a quick hook from Rays manager Kevin Cash.  It is also possible Glasnow could be less a proper starter and more of a glorified opener, as Tampa Bay would be pleased to get as many innings as they can from Glasnow before turning things over to their deep bullpen.

East Notes: Arozarena, Eaton, Nationals, Sanchez

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Randy Arozarena, infield prospect?  The current Rays outfielder began his pro career in Cuba’s Serie Nacional as a second baseman during his teenage days, so his defensive future wasn’t exactly settled by the time the Cardinals scouted him as a Mexican League player.  “Some of the question marks at the time were more on profile because he played second base, a tick of third base…and then when we saw him in Mexico when he was eligible to sign he was full-time playing center field and we had great looks there,” Cardinals assistant GM Moises Rodriguez told Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser.  “Profile muddled the evaluation a little bit, but as far as strength and twitch in his swing, that was never in question.”

This offensive potential was enough to merit a $1.25MM bonus for Arozarena as part of the Cardinals’ 2016-17 international signing class, though Arozarena has long since left second base behind, and also left St. Louis last winter.  The Cards dealt Arozarena to Tampa Bay as part of a multi-player trade that seemingly featured Jose Martinez and pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore as the headliners, yet it is Arozarena who has blossomed as a major piece of the 2020 club.  After recovering from a bout of COVID-19 early in the season, Arozarena hit .281/.382/.641 with seven homers over 76 PA in the regular season, and has been even hotter during the Rays’ postseason run.

More from around both the AL and NL East…

  • It seems possible that Adam Eaton has played his last game with the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes that “you’d think they might prefer another corner outfielder with more pop than Eaton can provide.”  Beyond just Eaton’s rough .226/.285/.384 slash line over 176 plate appearances in 2020, the Nats also figure to consider glovework and cost in deciding whether or not to bring Eaton back next year, and neither factor is necessarily in the veteran outfielder’s favor.  Eaton’s defensive metrics took a significant step back this season, and exercising his 2021 club option is a $9MM choice for the Nats — Eaton’s option can be picked up for $10.5MM or bought out for $1.5MM.  With a lot of money already committed to the 2021 team and several roster issues in need of being addressed, Washington might prefer to spread that $9MM around to multiple areas, though letting Eaton go would create another need in left field.
  • Third base is another problem spot for the Nationals, as Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington notes.  Carter Kieboom didn’t produce in his rookie year, leaving veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Josh Harrison having to pick up the slack to mixed results.  It’s obviously too early to give up on Kieboom, so Dybas suggests that the Nats could just sign another veteran on a short-term contract as a depth option if Kieboom again struggles.  Conversely, the Nationals could make a bigger internal move by shifting Luis Garcia to third base, or look outside the current roster for a free agent signing either big (Justin Turner) or more modest (Jake Lamb).
  • Gary Sanchez is “the biggest decision of the Yankees’ offseason,” George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Sanchez’s disastrous 2020 season has seemingly cost him the starting catcher job, and it remains to be seen if the Bronx Bombers still consider him as a part of their future.  It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would simply non-tender Sanchez (owed a raise on his $5MM salary heading into his second arbitration year), yet a trade might not be out of the question.  The Yankees would obviously be trying to shop Sanchez when his trade value is at its lowest, King notes, “yet, there is no guarantee the Yankees will ever be in position to sell high on Sanchez.”  There is also the matter of finding a replacement at catcher — the Yankees are already looking at a second consecutive year with a big luxury tax bill, so splurging on J.T. Realmuto might not be feasible.

Rays Remove Oliver Drake From ALDS Roster

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The Rays removed reliever Oliver Drake from their American League Division Series roster with the Yankees due to a right flexor tendon strain, per a team announcement. Trevor Richards has been activated in a corresponding move. Players removed from a postseason roster mid-series are ineligible to return in the next round, so Drake would not be available for the ALCS should Tampa Bay qualify.

Drake hasn’t pitched since Game 1 of this series, when he threw a scoreless inning. The 33-year-old struggled in his eleven regular season frames this year, but he was a key bullpen piece for skipper Kevin Cash in 2019. Last year, Drake tossed 56 innings of 3.21 ERA/3.87 FIP ball, finding a home after a chaotic 2018 season that saw him pitch for five different clubs. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for a second time this offseason, where he’d receive a small raise on this year’s $1.025MM salary if tendered a contract.

Richards, 27, pitched in nine games (starting six) this season, working to a 5.91 ERA/4.97 FIP. The former Marlin will give Cash a multi-inning option out of the bullpen.

Pitching Notes: Montas, Astros, Morejon, Rays

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The latest on a few teams’ Division Series pitching plans:

  • The Athletics are turning the ball over to right-hander Frankie Montas for this afternoon’s must-win Game 4 against the Astros, per various reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). The 27-year-old was the best pitcher on staff in 2019 before an 80-game suspension following a positive PED test derailed his season. Montas hasn’t performed anywhere close to last year’s level in 2020, although he continues to pump high-90’s heat and strike batters out at a high rate.
  • The Astros haven’t yet named their opposing starter for Game 4. Manager Dusty Baker didn’t rule out turning the ball over to veteran Zack Greinke, who has been dealing with some arm soreness, notes Jason Beck of MLB.com. The 36-year-old ran in the outfield before yesterday’s game but did not throw, reported Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). If Greinke doesn’t go, fellow righty Cristian Javier would be the logical choice to get the ball. [UPDATE: Greinke will get the ball for this afternoon’s potential clincher, via Jake Kaplan of the Athletic and others].
  • The Padres finalized their rotation plans for what they hope will be the next two games against the Dodgers. Young southpaw Adrián Morejón will go in tonight’s Game 3, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link), with righty Chris Paddack scheduled for a potential Game 4. Of course, there’ll only be a fourth game if San Diego can stave off elimination tonight with L.A. leading the best-of-five set two games to none.
  • The Rays, meanwhile, are planning to go to an opener to kick off tonight’s Game 4 against the Yankees. Reliever Ryan Thompson will get the ball to start (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Presumably, the sidearmer will be backed up by lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who has shown he’s comfortable providing bulk innings behind openers over the past two years.

Quick Hits: Rays, McClanahan, Astros, Valdez, Pirates,

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The Rays had a tough ninth inning in tonight’s game one against the Yankees. But after Giancarlo Stanton put the game away with a grand slam, the Rays got to make a little history themselves. Shane McClanahan became the first pitcher in MLB history to make his major league debut in the postseason, writes MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). Hitters have accomplished the feat, including this season when Alex Kirilloff made his debut for the Twins. McClanahan was the Rays #5 ranked prospect in Baseball America’s midseason report, and he’d pitched only as high as four games in Double-A prior to his ALDS appearance on Monday night. Rays manager Kevin Cash tasked the former 31st overall pick of the 2018 draft with getting the final out of the ninth inning. The southpaw allowed a high-chop infield single, then surrendered a walk to load the bases for DJ LeMahieu. McClanahan got the AL batting champ to hit one of the end of the bat, which he fielded cleanly to retire the side. While the playoffs rumble on, the rest of the baseball world continues in the background…

  • Framber Valdez will start game two of the ALDS for the Houston Astros on Tuesday with a chance to go up 2-0 in the series. But there was a version of events in which Valdez never would have been employed by the Astros at all. Valdez told reporters Monday that he was actually signed by the Brewers back in 2015, but he was released after a failed physical (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The lefty didn’t elaborate as to what brought about the failed the physical, and given the range of possibilities, it’s not worth speculating. The Astros signed the hard-throwing southpaw on March 18, 2015 as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, and he made his big-league debut in 2018. This season was his real breakout, however, as he locked down a spot in the Astros’ rotation with a 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP in 70 2/3 innings before turning in a dominant, five-inning relief showing in Game 1 of the Wild Card round.
  • Pittsburgh Pirates GM Ben Cherington continues to re-make the organization that hired him as General Manager back on November 18, 2019. Lots has changed in the year plus that Cherington has been in charge, but a long rebuild still lies ahead. Given the revenue dips caused by the pandemic, it’s not particularly surprising that today’s news regards a “mix of firings and not renewing contracts,” per Jason Mackey of PG Sports Now (via Twitter). Among those not returning to Pittsburgh are strength coach Jim Malone, head athletic trainer Bryan Housand, and senior advisor Nick Leyva, among others it seems. Given the trends we’re seeing in the industry, it would not be surprising to see these positions either filled internally or not filled at all.

Austin Meadows Active For ALDS

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The Rays released their 28-man roster for their ALDS matchup with the Yankees. Here’s the full breakdown:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Most notably, Meadows returns to the roster after missing Tampa Bay’s first-round sweep of the Blue Jays. (However, he’s not in the starting lineup for the series opener). Out since September 17 with an oblique strain, Meadows will attempt to get his season on track for the stretch run. Perhaps the Rays’ best player a season ago, the 25-year-old slumped to a .205/.296/.371 line over 152 plate appearances in 2020. An early-season bout with COVID-19 certainly didn’t start him off on the best footing, although he’ll have a chance to right the ship in the postseason. First baseman Nate Lowe, who was available in the Rays’ opening series, was removed from the active roster to accompany Meadows’ return.

Tampa Bay will run with the same 13-man pitching staff they used against Toronto. That presents another opportunity for the flamethrowing McLanahan to make his MLB debut. The highly-regarded prospect was added to the roster entering the postseason to lengthen the bullpen for manager Kevin Cash, but he didn’t appear in the first round.

MLBTR Poll: Rays Or Yankees?

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The top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays are set to “host” division rival New York Yankees in a playoff-bubble, 5-game, 5-day ALDS contest beginning on Monday night. Without days off, this series will function differently from divisional rounds of years past. The Rays and Yankees will both need to rely on their pitching depth to get through this series, starting with a barnburner in game one as Blake Snell takes on Gerrit Cole.

The Rays are famous for relying on organizational depth, but throughout the course of the regular season they have the luxury of the railway between Triple-A and the big leagues to replenish the bullpen and keep fresh arms rotating into games. The Rays should still have plenty of depth to survive the five-game series if all goes according to plan, given 28-man rosters.

Still, expect to see a lot of different Rays’ arms cycling through games. Tampa starters went less than five innings per start during the regular season, and that’s true for their top trio as well as the rest of the staff. Tyler Glasnow will take the hill in game two, with Charlie Morton getting the start in game three, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter links). Glasnow, Morton, and Snell combined for an average of 4 2/3 innings per start during the regular season, and that’s not likely to change much during the playoffs, where each pitch registers as high-impact and stress levels reach season-highs.

In the bullpen, both the Rays and Yankees are used to relying on a number of different arms for high-leverage innings. That will be important if the series goes the distance. Yankees’ closer Aroldis Chapman probably carries the single biggest individual burden, but Zack Britton can expect at least equal usage coming out of the pen for stress outs in the middle-to-late innings. As they have all season, the Rays will go with a bullpen-by-committee approach, leaning heavily on the quartet of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and John Curtiss late in games.

On the offensive end, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris points out that the Rays strike out a lot and don’t homer very much, which isn’t a typically strong recipe for October. On the other hand, in a conversation with Lindsey Adler, he writes: “But what teams are we talking about? The Rays ran out 60 different lineups in 60 games! They called up Randy Arozarena and sent everyone running in September, and seemed like a different team.”

The Yankees, of course, have the advantage of Cole going in game one, who has a history of strong postseason starts. He’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in the game right now to provide length. That should get the Yankees off on the right foot. Plus, he’ll be backed by a potent offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weak spots. Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have proven their potency in the postseason. It’s a scary lineup, any way you slice it.

Still, the Rays have the best record in the American League, an 8-2 record against the Yankees, and a chip on their shoulder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides this quote from Kevin Kiermaier, “We’re a small-market team with a low payroll, not a whole lot of household names, but with a lot of very good, above-average, quality major-league baseball players. One through 28, or however many roster spots we’re allowed, we know we can play with anyone. We know we can beat anyone.”

The Rays 3.56 team ERA was 2nd-best in the American League, where the Yankees finished 8th. By FIP the gap closes a bit with the Rays finishing 3rd and the Yankees 7th. The Yankees led the Rays by just 0.4 offensive fWAR, though their 116 wRC+ as a team was the best mark in the American League. The Rays are no slouches in that department either, finishing fourth at 109 wRC+.

Austin Meadows has been a big part of that offense for Tampa Bay – at least in theory – and he’s working his way back to full health, per Toribio (via Twitter). Meadows might have the highest ceiling offensively in the Rays lineup, but it’s been a tough year for the outfielder, who managed just 36 games with a .205/.296/.371 line. He did not appear in their 2-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Without him, the Rays still have plenty of options, especially given the defensive prowess of Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, as well as the emergence of Arozarena, who could also continue to see time as the designated hitter.

As for the Yankees, they’ll be reliant as ever on an otherwordly offense that just continues to produce in key spots. Not even mentioned in their ridiculous collection of offensive talent above, DJ LeMahieu leads the way after winning the batting title in the America League. On the mound, Cole gives them a big-time punch in game one, but that could be his only appearance of the series. To pitch again, he’d have to come back on short rest in a potential game five. If the Yanks lose game one, it will certainly be interesting to see at what level of urgency they come to the park for game two. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ are likely to follow Cole in the rotation, though manager Aaron Boone hasn’t officially set the rotation yet. High-profile rookie Deivi Garcia could get the ball in a potential game four.

All of which is to say: who knows? This is perhaps the preeminent series of the divisional round, which is saying a lot considering we have four divisional match-ups ahead. What say you? Who is going to come out on top to face the winner of the Astros and Athletics on the other side of the bracket? Save your personal preferences for the comments – I want to know who will win this series.

(Poll link for app users)

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/1/20

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Checking in on the game’s latest minor moves…

  • The Indians have reinstated right-hander Emmanuel Clase from the restricted list, the team announced. Clase missed the entire season after suffering a teres major strain and receiving an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Before that, he was the headlining part of the return the Indians received for righty Corey Kluber in an offseason trade with the Rangers. The flamethrowing Clase thrived in his major league debut in 2019 with a 2.31 ERA/3.43 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 and a 60.6 percent groundball in 23 1/3 innings. Based on that, Clase should be an important part of the Indians’ bullpen next year.
  • Rays left-hander Sean Gilmartin has accepted an outright assignment, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The club previously designated Gilmartin on Tuesday. Gilmartin, whom the Rays have shuffled on and off their roster throughout the year, threw 4 1/3 regular-season innings and yielded four earned runs on seven hits and four walks (five strikeouts).

Injury Notes: Osuna, Meadows, Brewers

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It’s been nearly two months since Tommy John surgery was initially recommended for Astros closer Roberto Osuna. A couple weeks later, however, Houston skipper Dusty Baker revealed that Osuna was opting for a rest-and-rehab route. Osuna elaborated on the decision to FOX 26’s Mark Berman, revealing that a second opinion offered him a different conclusion: a forearm strain that could benefit from four weeks or so of rest. Osuna shut down from throwing for the recommended four weeks and resumed throwing three weeks ago. He’s optimistic that he’ll be able to avoid surgery based on the way his arm feels and his most recent input from doctors.

Even with a deep postseason run for Houston, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he builds up to the point of being able to pitch in 2020. And given that he’s eligible for a raise on this year’s $10MM salary in arbitration before becoming a free agent next winter, he doesn’t appear to be a lock to be tendered a contract. Even if he were to simply repeat this year’s salary, that’d be a rather sizable gamble to take on a reliever who is just months removed from a Tommy John recommendation.

A couple more injury notes from around the game…

  • The Rays have been without Austin Meadows since Sept. 17 due to an oblique strain, but Tampa Bay general manager Erik Neander tells reporters that it’s possible Meadows will be able to rejoin the club for its upcoming ALDS date against the Yankees (Twitter link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The 25-year-old Meadows opened the season on the Covid-19 IL after testing positive and experiencing symptoms in July. He didn’t look like himself when on the field, struggling to a .205/.296/.371 slash with a bloated 33 percent strikeout rate in 152 plate appearances. That’s miles away from last year’s .291/.364/.558 slash and 22.2 percent strikeout rate. If Meadows is able to return to that 2019 form, it’d obviously represent a major boost to the Rays in a division series that could pit them against Gerrit Cole twice. With Meadows absent, the Rays’ only left-handed-hitting outfield options have been Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips.
  • Brewers skipper Craig Counsell didn’t give a particularly positive update on Brett Anderson when asked by reporters last night (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The veteran lefty, who is not on the Wild Card roster due to a blister, hadn’t improved much since the end of the regular season and was “not close” to being considered for the team’s roster in round one of postseason play. Right-hander Devin Williams, meanwhile, said he believes he’d be able to rejoin the roster in the next round of postseason play, should the Brewers qualify (Twitter link from McCalvy). The breakout changeup artist was left off Milwaukee’s Wild Card roster due to shoulder soreness. Any Brewers injury news could be rendered mostly moot, of course, as they’ll fight for their playoff lives tonight in an elimination showdown with the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw.
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