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Qualifying Offer Rumors: Sunday

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The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. Here’s some QO-related chatter that’s been floating around on Sunday.

  • The Rays are likely to issue a qualifying offer to right-handed starter Alex Cobb, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Cobb pitched to a 3.66 ERA with a typically strong 47.8% ground ball rate across 179 1/3 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old started 29 games in 2017. The MLBTR team predicts a four-year, $48MM contract for him.
  • Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago opines that the Cubs will issue a QO to both Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis (something that has long seemed likely). He further speculates that the (unlikely) event of Davis accepting the offer would represent an ideal scenario for the Cubs, who don’t have an obvious replacement for him in the closer role aside from perhaps Carl Edwards Jr., who struggled with command in the playoffs and has only 107 innings of major league experience. Both Arrieta and Davis rank among MLBTR’s top ten free agents.
  • The Rangers are not expected to extend a QO to right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter. He notes that the Rangers were considering the move, but that certainly would have been surprising given Cashner’s injury history and poor peripherals. Though he managed a 3.40 ERA across 166 2/3 innings in 2017, Cashner struck out an alarmingly low 4.64 batters per nine innings. He seemingly benefitted from some BABIP- and homer/fly ball rate-related luck as evidenced by his 5.30 xFIP. The MLBTR team predicted a 2-year, $20MM contract for Cashner, ranking him as the 27th-best free agent available.

Cubs Claim Randy Rosario From Twins

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The Cubs announced that they’ve claimed left-hander Randy Rosario off waivers from the Twins. Chicago’s 40-man roster count now sits at 33 players.

The 23-year-old Rosario was rocked in his big league debut with the Twins this past season (eight runs in 2 1/3 innings) but has been considered among the team’s 20 to 30 best prospects in recent years. A hard-throwing lefty out of the Dominican Republic, Rosario’s performance has deteriorated as he’s ascended through Minnesota’s minor league ranks. This past season, he tossed 57 1/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA and 7.1 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 with a 50.9 percent ground-ball rate in Double-A.

To Rosario’s credit, he was dominant at the Double-A level through the season’s first half. However, he collapsed in significant fashion from late July through season’s end, yielding 19 earned runs on 31 hits with a 13-to-11 K/BB ratio in his final 17 2/3 frames at the Double-A level.

NL Central Notes: Cozart, Cubs, Cardinals

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Despite coming off a roughly five-win season, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could face a difficult market in free agency, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Buchanan quotes an exec from the American League and another from the National League who suggested that Cozart would struggle to match even the three-year, $40MM pact attained by J.J. Hardy at a similar age three offseasons ago. A lack of contending teams in clear need of a shortstop is working against Cozart, as is the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of producing at his 2017 levels. An NL exec opined that Cozart could expand his market by adopting a super-utility role in which he started a couple of times per week at shortstop, second base and third base, though Buchanan notes that Cozart “feels strongly” about remaining a shortstop. Cincinnati is thought to be “leaning heavily against” a qualifying offer for Cozart, per Buchanan, which would certainly help his free-agent stock. From my view, it still seems likely that a team will ultimately see Cozart as too good a value not to find a spot for him at a certain point. It’s difficult to see his market falling below even the three-year, $33-36MM range, as even if he doesn’t replicate his 2017 excellence at the plate, he could still be reasonably expected to more than justify that level of commitment.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • The Cubs need to replace 40 percent of their starting rotation in 2018, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score, adding that the team is “expected” to pursue an acquisition similar to its July pickup of Jose Quintana (i.e. a controllable arm on the trade market). Levine speculatively lists former Cub Jeff Samardzija (now the Giants and owed $58.5MM through 2020) and Rays right-hander Chris Archer (owed $34MM through 2021, with the final two years being club options) as possibilities. Of course, the Giants have shown no inclination that they’ll be selling off veteran pieces this winter, and the Rays have no pressure to move Archer, whose contract is one of the most affordable commitments to any established starter in the big leagues. Levine also notes Alex Cobb as a potential free-agent target, noting the righty’s connection to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey — each of whom knows Cobb well from their days with the Rays.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has posted highlights from a lengthy, comprehensive chat on the Cardinals and their offseason plans. There are more than a dozen interesting scenarios covered within, including the team’s search for a closer, the need to add a known quantity to the middle of the lineup and the possibility (or lack thereof) various players currently on the roster will be moved. Goold notes that the Cardinals have had interest in Brandon Morrow on multiple occasions in the past and notes that he could well be a target if the Cardinals ultimately decide to pursue multiple arms and have a competition for the ninth inning next spring. He also adds that St. Louis will likely pursue top-end closers (e.g. Wade Davis, Greg Holland), though the Cards will have obvious competition on that front. Any who track the offseason closely, especially fans of the Cardinals or other clubs in the NL Central, will want to take a full look for some insight into the Redbirds’ upcoming plans.

NL Central Notes: Bell, Anderson, Brewers, Ross

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The Reds have hired Buddy Bell for a senior advisor position in their front office, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports (Twitter link).  The team is expected to officially announce Bell’s hiring tomorrow.  Bell, who managed the Tigers, Rockies and Royals from 1996-2007, has been working in the White Sox front office for the last decade, most recently acting as Chicago’s assistant GM.  This will be Bell’s second stint in Cincinnati, as he played for the Reds from 1985-88 during his 18-year career in the big leagues.  The Bell family has long-standing ties in Cincinnati — Gus Bell (Buddy’s father) spent eight seasons with the Reds and is in the team’s Hall of Fame, while Buddy’s sons Mike and David also spent time with the Reds as a player and minor league manager, respectively.

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • Chase Anderson discussed his contract extension in a conference call with reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel), noting that he was eager to put pen to paper after solidly establishing himself as a quality starter.  “Going into last season, I wasn’t sure I’d be in the rotation. But it showed me what I really could do and opened up different windows for me,” Anderson said.  “I always wanted a multi-year contract once I got into this position. When the team offers you an extension and it’s guaranteed money, it’s hard to turn it down.”  While he had three arbitration-eligible years remaining as a Super Two player, Anderson also turns 30 in November, so one can’t fault him for wanting to lock in a big payday.  The righty will earn at least $11.75MM from the contract’s two guaranteed years, and he could an addditional $29.25MM in 2020-21 should the Brewers exercise their two club options.
  • From that same conference call, Brewers GM David Stearns said the team is in discussions with some other players about multi-year contracts.  Stearns didn’t cite any names, though arbitration-eligible closer Corey Knebel seems like a logical candidate, as do pre-arb building blocks like Domingo Santana or Travis Shaw.
  • Now that Dave Martinez has been hired as the Nationals’ new manager, David Ross seems like a logical candidate to step into Martinez’s old role as the Cubs’ bench coach.  Two sources tell NBCSports.com’s Patrick Mooney, however, that it could be difficult for Ross to commit to the season-long job, given his family commitments and various off-the-field endeavors.  Ross is so widely respected around the game that he “can pretty much write his own job description” whenever he wants to dive back into a full-time baseball job.  Mooney suggests that Cubs first base coach Brandon Hyde could be an internal candidate for the bench coach position.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Chief Wahoo, Cubs, Otani

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The new Marlins ownership group apparently asked Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Andre Dawson to remain with the organization, but at a 75% pay cut amounting to a $25k annual salary. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has the full scoop here. In a phone interview with FanRag, Perez said, “They say they wanted us in the organization. But we didn’t like the way they wanted us in the organization.” The debacle actually began with Marlins president David Samson calling Perez to tell him that the two were being let go. After a few subsequent events, Perez and Dawson were given the $25K offer and asked to spend their time with minor leaguers rather than the major leaguers they had developed a rapport with. Conflicting information came to the two Hall of Famers from Samson and Jeter over the course of a few days, leading Perez to describe the whole fiasco as “ridiculous”, adding that “it wasn’t right”.  They’ve rejected their respective low-ball offers and will no longer be a part of the Marlins organization.

Some other items across major league baseball as the Astros and Dodgers prepare to face each other in Game 4…

  • Yuli Gurriel’s use of a racial slur aimed at Yu Darvish has once again brought up the subject of the Indians’ Chief Wahoo logo. When asked about Chief Wahoo, Manfred said that he sees a difference between the logo and Gurriel’s slur, but that “both are problematic” (via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). Scott Miller of Bleacher Report adds in his own tweet that Manfred plans to deal with Chief Wahoo in the offseason.
  • The Cubs might be willing to listen on big-name players in order to acquire young pitchers, Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports. He lists Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Sean Manaea, Aaron Nola and Michael Fulmer as potential targets, noting that only Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are likely to be considered untouchable. The Cubs’ starting staff finished with a 4.05 combined ERA last season, but could see former Cy Young-winner Jake Arrieta leave in free agency (Rogers cites the Rangers as a team that could potentially sign him).
  • Coveted Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Shohei Otani has been released from the hospital following successful ankle surgery, according to a report from the Japan Times. Otani’s recovery process will be one to watch, as he’s likely to be courted by all 30 MLB teams during the offseason as he attempts a move to the majors. Otani’s ankle injury can actually be traced all the way back to last October and has bothered him ever since, so fans in Japan and the US alike will hope that this surgery puts a firm end to any issues.

The Nationals’ Managerial Search

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The Nationals became the latest team with a managerial vacancy last Friday when they announced that skipper Dusty Baker would not return for a third season with the team. The Nats have traditionally shown little penchant for hesitation when it comes to shuffling the dugout mix, as evidenced by the fact that they’re now seeking their fourth manager since the 2011 season. No manager has lasted more than three years at the helm in D.C. since the franchise moved there from Montreal.

It’s not yet clear how many candidates the Nats plan on interviewing, but we’ll track the candidates and update accordingly here in this post as they come to light.

Finalists

  • Dave Martinez is a finalist to land the job, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. It’s unclear whether anyone else is still in the mix, Janes adds (Twitter links).

Latest Updates

  • John Farrell interviewed for the job today, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  As with previous reports, Rosenthal also hears that Dave Martinez is considered the favorite to be Washington’s next manager.
  • It is “not likely” that the Nationals have interest in former Yankees manager Joe Girardi, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  One of the reasons is that the Nats traditionally don’t pay large salaries to managers, and Girardi would certainly command a notable commitment — his just-completed contract with the Yankees was a four-year deal worth $16MM.

Will Interview/Have Interviewed

  • Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post tweets that the Nationals have received permission from the division-rival Mets to interview hitting coach Kevin Long for the position. Long, who has spent the past three seasons as the Mets’ hitting coach and held the same post for the Yankees in the seven preceding years, was reportedly a finalist in the Mets’ search. However, the Mets ultimately selected Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway as their new skipper.
  • The Nats are interviewing Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez today or tomorrow (Oct. 26/27), Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. (Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post first reported Martinez would interview.) The 53-year-old Martinez has previously interviewed for the position in 2013, Castillo notes, before the Nats elected to go with Matt Williams. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times further reports that Martinez came quite close to being named Nationals manager after Williams was dismissed, but ownership decided late in the process that a candidate with prior MLB managerial experience was needed. Wittenmyer writes that some within the industry consider Martinez the favorite this time around, which Jon Heyman of Fan Rag echoes. Martinez has spent a decade as Joe Maddon’s bench coach, dating back to 2008 with the Rays. Martinez spent parts of 16 seasons in the Majors as an outfielder, including four with the Expos before the franchise moved to Washington, D.C.

Cubs Hire Chili Davis, Brian Butterfield, Jim Hickey

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6:10pm: Hickey has evidently put pen to paper, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that the agreement is “official.”

5:30pm: Chicago is nearing agreement on a deal to bring Jim Hickey aboard as the new pitching coach, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago tweets. Hickey long served as the Rays’ pitching coach, including a long run with Maddon. He had reportedly drawn interest from quite a few other organizations as well.

12:22pm: The Cubs announced today that they’ve hired former Red Sox coaches Chili Davis and Brian Butterfield to their staff. Davis will take over for hitting coach John Mallee, who will not return to the organization. Butterfield will be the team’s third base coach, replacing Gary Jones. Additionally, the Cubs announced that minor league hitting coordinator Andy Haines will be the team’s new assistant hitting coach, replacing Eric Hinske, who took a job as the Angels’ hitting coach earlier this week.

Davis and Butterfield were both a part of John Farrell’s coaching staff in Boston through the end of the 2017 season, but the Red Sox gave permission to Farrell’s staff to explore other opportunities. Their hiring in Chicago makes them the second and third members of the Red Sox 2017 coaching staff to take new jobs today alone; Carl Willis was named pitching coach of the Indians earlier this morning.

The 57-year-old Davis enjoyed a highly productive 19-year playing career as an outfielder and DH with the Angels, Giants, Yankees, Twins and Royals. He hit .274/.360/.451 with 350 career homers in just under 10,000 MLB plate appearances and won three World Series rings as a player (’91 Twins, ’98-’99 Yankees).

Since hanging up the spikes, Davis has also emerged as a well-regarded hitting coach, first taking the position with the Athletics (2012-14) before joining the Red Sox (2015-17). He drew interest from the Padres in the same role and has also been listed as a speculative managerial candidate at times. While there are many in the Boston organization that deserve some degree of credit, Davis was the primary voice guiding Boston’s rising crop of young bats, including Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts.

The 59-year-old Butterfield will bring more than two decades of coaching experience to the Cubs. He’s previously held various positions with the Yankees, Blue Jays and D-backs, serving as a first base coach, third base coach and bench coach at the Major League level.

Cubs Claim Jacob Hannemann, Designate Mike Freeman

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The Cubs on Thursday announced that they’ve claimed outfielder Jacob Hannemann off waivers from the Mariners and designated infielder/outfielder Mike Freeman for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Hannemann was originally with the Cubs earlier this year but was claimed off waivers by the Mariners in September. He’ll now return to the organization that selected him in the third round of the 2013 draft.

The 26-year-old Hannemann made his MLB debut with the Mariners following that claim, though he collected just 20 plate appearances over the final month of the season and hit .150/.150/.300 (3-for-20 with a homer and four punchouts).

Through 322 PAs with Triple-A Iowa in 2017, Hannemann slashed .265/.324/.404, though his rough Double-A performance dragged his cumulative batting line down to a less palatable .240/.312/.372. Baseball America rated Hannemann as Chicago’s No. 23 prospect last offseason, writing that he has 70-grade speed and is the “best athlete in the Cubs system.” However, he also has a fringy arm in the outfield, per their report, and has never demonstrated that much power in the minors.

The 30-year-old Freeman saw time with the Cubs, Mariners and Dodgers in 2017, appearing at all four infield positions but mustering just a .100/.182/.183 slash in 66 trips to the plate. Freeman’s jack-of-all-trades status on the defensive end of the spectrum and quality on-base numbers in Triple-A have made him a desirable commodity to round out 40-man rosters over the past couple of seasons, though. He’s played every position other than catcher over the past two seasons and has a career .312/.377/.420 batting line in parts of four Triple-A campaigns.

Central Notes: Twins, Cubs, Tilson, Royals

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Carl Willis’ name has been oft-mentioned in the Twins’ search for a new pitching coach, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The 56-year-old Willis has held that same position with the Red Sox since the 2015 campaign, but Boston’s coaching staff under now-former manager John Farrell was given the opportunity to explore opportunities with other teams. Willis is no stranger to the Twins organization, as he spent five seasons pitching for Minnesota in the early 90s and enjoyed a career year with the World Champion ’91 Twins. Heyman also notes that the Twins have interviewed former Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey, but Hickey’s ties to Cubs skipper Joe Maddon are strong. The Cubs also have a pitching coach vacancy after dismissing Chris Bosio following their exit from the NLCS.

More from baseball’s Central divisions…

  • Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently spoke about the team’s 2018 rotation and acknowledged a need, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”
  • Ankle surgery has not yet been firmly ruled out for White Sox center fielder Charlie Tilson, writes Scot Gregor for Baseball America (subscription required and recommended). Tilson has been beset by injuries since being acquired from the Cardinals in exchange for Zach Duke in a 2016 deadline deal. He tore his hamstring in his MLB debut with the ChiSox in Aug. 2016, and he missed the 2017 campaign after suffering an offseason stress fracture in his right foot and a broken right ankle in June. Tilson was at last able to play in the instructional league this month, and he tells Gregor that those games were a “test” for the health of his right foot. “There’s always surgical possibilities, but I’m just trying to take it a day at a time and keep doing the things that are working for me,”  said Tilson. He’ll have some new competition next spring, as Adam Engel and Leury Garcia will be in Chicago’s center field mix as well.
  • The Royals have been discussing contingency plans for the potential departure of Eric Hosmer and/or Mike Moustakas, writes MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. One possibility is for prospect Hunter Dozier to slide across the diamond from third base to first base, with Cheslor Cuthbert manning the hot corner. Dozier has seen occasional time at first base in recent seasons and could see some additional time there playing winter ball in Mexico, though assistant GM J.J. Picollo tells Flanagan that Dozier’s goal in winter ball is just to get as many at-bats as possible regardless of position. If Hosmer and Moustakas do depart, it’s also possible that Cuthbert could play first next year with Dozier playing his natural third base, says Picollo, calling it “a matter of how we line up best defensively.”

NL Notes: Callaway, Marlins, Peralta, Hickey

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While the Mets had intended to conduct a second round, the team jumped at the chance to hire Mickey Callaway as manager after his first interview, Marc Carig of Newsday writes. He stressed a need to engage the team’s players as “human beings and individuals,” while GM Sandy Alderson cited a need to establish “rapport [and] empathy.” In other news relating to the hiring situation, Carig also notes (Twitter link) that the club interviewed Mark DeRosa before reaching its decision. The long-time big leaguer currently works for MLB Network; his candidacy had not previously been reported.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Trimming payroll down to a reported $90MM obviously represents a big challenge for the Marlins. The challenge is made all the more difficult, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes, by the state of the team’s rotation. With some paring of veteran assets seemingly all but inevitable, it seems likely that the team will look to bring back some new arms if at all possible. Of course, the organization will surely still be looking to rely on internal options to fill out the staff. A team source had some rather harsh words for two such candidates, telling Jackson that promising youngster Dillon Peters “needs to lose weight” and charging that the struggling Adam Conley fails to accept instruction and “thinks he has all the answers.” Neither of those two southpaws produced appealing results in 2017, though the former drew a ton of groundballs in his first 31 1/3 MLB frames (and was also quite good at Double-A) while the latter had quite a lot of success in the prior two seasons.
  • The Reds’ pitching staff has easily been the worst in baseball over the past two seasons, but there are certainly some useful pieces in place. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon takes a look at one such pitcher, southpaw reliever Wandy Peralta. The 26-year-old was a pleasant surprise in his rookie campaign, working to a 3.76 ERA in 64 2/3 frames with 7.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 54.2% groundball rate. Peralta has a diverse slate of pitch offerings — a pair of big fastballs along with a slider and change — that he utilized nearly equally in 2017. Given the number of questions marks among Cincinnati hurlers, hopes are obviously high that Peralta will continue to cement his status as a solid bullpen asset.
  • The pitching coach carousel seems to be a particular area to watch in the coaching ranks this offseason, with Jim Hickey among the notable names on the market. Per MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, via Twitter, the former Rays pitching coach held a chat with the Cubs today. He has also already engaged with the Giants and Cardinals, she notes.
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