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Latest On Cubs’ Rotation Plans

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The Cubs’ rotation took a huge hit recently with Justin Steele requiring season-ending elbow surgery. However, they don’t plan to rush out and scramble for external options. Per a report from Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the club is focused on internal solutions for now.

That’s a fairly understandable position to take at this part of the calendar. There are some unsigned free agents, with Spencer Turnbull arguably the most notable one, but that wouldn’t provide any help in the short term. Such a player would effectively require a delayed spring training ramp up, meaning they wouldn’t be an option for a few weeks even if they were signed today.

The trade market could provide some more hot-and-ready options but there are problems there as well. This early in the season, most clubs are still hoping to contend. The clubs that have no hope of contending this year don’t have a ton of exciting pitchers available.

It could be argued that Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is the perfect storm of an exciting player on a rebuilding club that should be willing to deal him at any time. The Marlins did trade Luis Arráez in early May of last year, so it’s a possibility with some precedent. However, Will Sammon of The Athletic reported this week that the Fish haven’t yet decided if they will trade Alcantara. There is no real rush for them to decide, as the trade deadline is still months away and they are out to a respectable 8-8 start. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports similarly, noting that the Marlins feel they will get better offers in July.

Some less-established pitchers might be available. For instance, the Brewers just acquired Quinn Priester from the Red Sox to bolster their own injury-battered rotation. Priester is a former first-round pick and notable prospect but had a 6.23 earned run average in 99 2/3 career innings when Milwaukee grabbed him. The Brewers gave up the 33rd overall pick in this summer’s draft, a mid-tier prospect (Yophery Rodriguez) and a player to be named later to get him.

The Cubs already have some guys who are more or less in that Priester bucket. Jordan Wicks is a former first-round pick with a 5.02 ERA in 80 2/3 innings. Cade Horton, another first-rounder, hasn’t made his big league debut yet but is in the Triple-A rotation.

They also have a couple of other options. Javier Assad started the season on the injured list due to an oblique strain but has begun a rehab assignment and should be able to rejoin the club soon. As noted by Mooney, the club has a number of off-days coming up on the schedule. That could allow them to ride with a four-man rotation of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown for a while, with swingman Colin Rea contributing from time to time via spot starts or bulk outings until Assad is back in the mix.

That’s a decent amount of depth for the time being and the club is out to a strong 12-8 start, so they probably don’t feel the need to make a panic move. Once the deadline draws nearer, it seems fair to expect their willingness to trade for external options will increase. It’s possible that guys like Wicks or Horton could take over roles in the coming months but other injuries are also a distinct possibility.

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

Cubs Option Matt Shaw

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The Cubs have optioned third baseman Matt Shaw to Triple-A Iowa, reports Keith Law of The Athletic. That’s part of a larger slate of moves, relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. On the pitching side, the club recalled left-hander Luke Little and right-hander Daniel Palencia. To make room for those two, righty Nate Pearson has been optioned to Iowa as well, while righty Eli Morgan has been placed on the 15-day IL due to an elbow impingement.

Shaw, 23, came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league. The club clearly believed he was worthy of a shot at the majors, as they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal in the offseason. That didn’t guarantee Shaw a spot on the Opening Day roster but it opened a door for him, which he walked through. He cracked the club’s roster ahead of the Tokyo Series and has been serving as their regular third baseman up until this point.

The results have been mixed. Across his 68 plate appearances thus far, he has drawn a walk in 14.7% of them, but he’s also been struck out at a 26.5% clip. He has a tepid .172/.294/.241 batting line, though with a .231 batting average on balls in play. That number is on the unlucky side but Shaw hasn’t been doing himself many favors in terms of putting good wood on the ball. His 82.7 mile per hour average exit velocity in the second percentile of qualified MLB hitters, per Statcast. His hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile, his bat speed in the tenth and his barrel rate 15th. His defense has also been a bit of a question mark. In 141 innings at third base thus far, he already has four errors.

All of that is surely less than the Cubs were hoping for, as he destroyed minor league pitching. After getting selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw got into 159 minor league games between that draft selection and the end of the 2024 season. He had solid walk and strikeout rates of 10.2% and 17.3% respectively while slashing .303/.384/.522 for a 157 wRC+. 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level last year and he hit .298/.395/.534 in those, building the case that he was ready for a major league debut.

Shaw is yet another example of a top prospect who didn’t immediately click at the major league level. While some may jump to declare Shaw a “bust”, this sort of thing is actually quite common. A classic example is Mike Trout, who hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances back in 2011. It can’t be assumed that a prospect will immediately succeed when reaching the majors for the first time, nor does it mean that they won’t ever find success down the line.

Sending Shaw down is defensible in a vacuum, given his struggles. But outside the vacuum, it’s unclear who the Cubs can turn to as a better option for the hot corner. Bruján has a .189/.261/.270 batting line in his career. Justin Turner has lots of third base experience but is now 40 years old. He’s been more of a first base/designated hitter type in recent years, with just 90 innings at the hot corner since the end of the 2022 season. He’s also having his own struggles at the plate this year, with a .172/.286/.172 line thus far. Jon Berti is a 35-year-old veteran utility guy. Gage Workman is a Rule 5 guy who has received just ten plate appearances thus far this year and has been punched out in five of them.

It’s possible this is just a short-term situation and Shaw will be back up with the big league club soon. How long it takes for his return will be significant for him and the club. By cracking the Opening Day roster, he was on pace to get a full year of service time in 2025. That would have meant qualifying for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030. A quick return to the majors could still make those targets viable. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days in the big leagues or on the injured list to get credited with a full year. It’s also possible for Shaw to qualify for arbitration after 2027 even with less than three years of service time, as he could reach Super Two status.

If Shaw doesn’t return fairly quickly, those timelines will be pushed one year into the future. It will also take off the possibility of the Cubs earning an extra draft pick via the prospect promotion incentive. Under the PPI rules, teams can earn an extra pick by carrying a top prospect on the roster long enough to earn a full service year. The Cubs put that on the table initially by giving Shaw an Opening Day job but it will no longer apply if he’s down for a few weeks.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

Justin Steele To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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Cubs southpaw Justin Steele is slated to undergo season-ending surgery on his left elbow, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) this afternoon. Steele was placed on the injured list with elbow tendinitis shortly after his most recent start against the Rangers and was sent to receive a second opinion on the issue after undergoing an initial MRI on Thursday. Whether or not Steele will require a full Tommy John surgery or instead undergo an internal brace procedure is not yet clear. He won’t pitch again in 2025 in either case, but internal brace procedures typically come with a shorter recovery timeline of around twelve months, as opposed to the timeline for Tommy John, which can stretch up to 18 months and would likely impact much of his 2026 campaign as well.

It’s a gut punch for the Cubs and their fans, particularly given initial indications that Steele’s injury wasn’t especially significant. The southpaw told reporters after his placement on the IL last week that he was expecting a minimum stint on the shelf, and the injury did not initially appear dissimilar from the relatively minor elbow issue that caused him to spend two weeks on the shelf last September. When the club opted to seek a second opinion on Steele’s elbow, they suggested that recurring nature of the tendinitis was the impetus behind their decision to seek a second opinion in hopes of putting a stop to the problem in a more permanent fashion. Evidently, that will require the southpaw to go under the knife.

For at least the rest of 2025, that will leave Chicago without perhaps their most talented pitcher overall. Steele has drawn criticism over the years for his repertoire, which is generally limited to just a fastball and a slider aside from a handful of rarely-used tertiary offerings. Starting pitchers can rarely survive in the majors without at least three average pitches they can lean on, but Steele has managed to buck that trend. The unique properties of his fastball have allowed him to not only survive as a starter, but thrive. From the time he earned a job as a full-time starter in 2022 through the end of the 2024 season, Steele’s 3.10 ERA was sandwiched between Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara for the ninth-best figure in baseball. His 3.14 FIP also placed him within the top ten, and his 3.46 SIERA was good for 19th and placed him ahead of well-regarded aces such as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Zac Gallen.

The southpaw wasn’t quite pitching up to that elite level in his first starts of the season. He was lit up to an ugly 6.89 ERA with a 19.4% strikeout rate in his first three starts of the year and, even as he mostly looked like his usual self in his latest start when he struck out eight Rangers across seven scoreless innings, his velocity has been down all year and averaged just barely 90 mph in that start against Texas. For a pitcher who usually sits around 92 mph, that’s a notable and concerning drop in velocity, but it’s nonetheless surely frustrating for the southpaw to be shut down just when he was beginning to turn a corner this year.

With Steele now out for at least the remainder of the year, the Cubs will need to hope for strong health from the remainder of their starting pitching options. Fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga will be leaned on heavily to step in as the team’s ace after a dominant rookie season in the majors where the 31-year-old managed a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting and received an All-Star nod. Looking beyond Imanaga, fans in Chicago are left to hope that veteran Matthew Boyd’s brilliant performance (1.59 ERA, 3.34 FIP) across his first three starts in a Cubs uniform are a signal that he’ll be able to remain healthy and effective this year after four consecutive seasons of injury woes. Righty Jameson Taillon looking anything like he did last season, when he posted a 3.27 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 28 starts, would also go a long way to helping make up for the loss of Steele.

Outside of that veteran trio, the Cubs have little certainty in the rotation. Youngster Ben Brown looked good against the Dodgers in his start against the club yesterday, but carries a 5.09 ERA on the year despite a 3.89 FIP. Veteran swingman Colin Rea has looked good in three scoreless appearances as a long relief arm this year and is filling in for Steele as a spot starter today, though whether that’s Chicago’s long-term plan or just what they’ve decided on for today’s game remains to be seen. Right-hander Javier Assad is presently on the injured list due to an oblique issue but could start a minor league rehab assignment at some point this month.

Aside from those big league options, the club has some pitching depth in the minors as well. Southpaw Jordan Wicks was scratched from his start with Triple-A Iowa last week, though it’s unclear if that was to preserve him as a possible option to start today’s game or due to an injury of his own. Brandon Birdsell was on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point this year, though a shoulder issue has kept him out of action since February with no timetable for return. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton has a 1.23 ERA and 38.7% strikeout rate in his first two starts with Iowa this year, but has not yet fully built up to five inning starts after missing most of last year with his own injury issues. Veteran righty Chris Flexen signed a minor league deal with Chicago over the offseason and remains at Triple-A with the organization as a potential innings-eater, if necessary.

That’s enough depth that the Cubs should be able to get by in the rotation for the time being without much issue, as long as they avoid another major injury. Even so, the eyes of fans in Chicago are surely already turning to the trade deadline this summer. It’s unlikely the Cubs would jump the market and swing a major trade for a starting pitcher this far from July 31, but if the club remains in a strong position to contend this summer it would hardly be a surprise to see them involved in the trade market. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is widely expected to be the top arm available, but Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen are among a number of lesser arms on expiring contracts who could theoretically be available this summer depending on where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings come July.

Cubs Release Caleb Kilian

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The Cubs have released right-hander Caleb Kilian, according to the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. The righty was designated for assignment by the Cubs last week and presumably passed through waivers unclaimed in the days since his DFA. The Cubs could have outrighted the right-hander to the minor leagues, but evidently did not choose to do so. He’ll now be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs without the club needing to carry him on their 40-man roster.

Kilian, 28 in June, got his start in pro ball as an eighth-round pick by the Giants back in 2019. He made just seven appearances in the minors that year, with 16 scoreless innings between rookie ball and Low-A. That impressive start to Kilian’s pro career was put on hold due to 2020’s canceled minor league season, and when he got off to a hot start with the Giants between the High-A and Double-A levels in 2020, Kilian found himself swapped to the Cubs alongside outfielder Alexander Canario at the 2021 trade deadline in the deal that made Kris Bryant a Giant.

That trade kicked off Kilian’s Cubs career, and he made four starts for the club’s Double-A affiliate down the stretch to finish the year with a 2.42 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate in 100 1/3 innings across two levels of the minors. Those were solid numbers for the year and put Kilian on the radar for a big league call-up at some point in 2022. He started the year at Triple-A but got his chance with the Cubs in June of that year. His first outing in the majors was a solid run, as he allowed three runs across five innings of work while striking out six and walking two. Things came apart from there, however, and Kilian struggled to a 14.21 ERA with ten walks in just 6 1/3 innings of work against three strikeouts.

That pair of disastrous outings ended Kilian’s first foray into the majors, and his newfound control struggles seemingly followed him back to the minors. After posting a 2.06 ERA with a 9.1% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in nine Triple-A starts prior to his call-up, Kilian struggled to a 5.37 ERA with a 14.6% walk rate the rest of the way after being optioned back down to the minor leagues. He managed to rein in his wildness in 2023, but that came at the expense of punchouts; Kilian struggled to a 4.56 ERA in 25 Triple-A outings that year despite walking just 7% of his opponents thanks to a lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate.

Last season, Kilian appeared to be in the conversation for a big league job with the Cubs during Spring Training before being sidelined by a teres major strain for several months. When healthy enough to pitch again, Kilian posted a 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. That was a marked improvement, but his 20.3% strikeout rate was still lackluster. He continued to struggle at the big league level in brief call-ups to the majors as well, with a 4.22 ERA and 5.98 FIP in 10 2/3 innings of work that brought his career ERA in the majors down to 9.22.

Coming into 2025, Kilian had an odd Spring Training where he struck out 32.3% of his opponents in six innings of work, but also surrendered 12 hits and wound up with a 7.50 ERA. His first start at the Triple-A level was nothing short of disastrous this year, as he surrendered six runs over 2 1/3 innings of work. That wound up being his only outing with the Cubs this year before they decided to pull the plug and designate him for assignment. Now that he’s cleared waivers and been granted his release, the right-hander will have the opportunity to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs and try to get his career back on track, though it’s also possible he could look to reinvent himself in independent ball or overseas as well.

Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Discussed Contract Extension

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TODAY: The Cubs and Crow-Armstrong have ceased negotiations for now, the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes. As per Mooney’s framing, the talks seemed somewhat exploratory in nature, and perhaps more to “lay some groundwork for the future” rather than to complete an extension immediately. There was also some conflict with Feinsand’s report in terms of the $75MM ceiling of the possible extension, as Mooney writes that “team and league sources characterized the outline of that report…as inaccurate.”

APRIL 12: The Cubs recently reached out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s camp with an extension offer, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand relays that the deal would’ve maxed out in the $75MM range if all option years involved in the deal had been exercised, though it would not have reached that figure in terms of total guarantee. The exact structure of the offer is not known and, while Feinsand writes that the sides did not work out a deal, it’s unclear whether talks between the two sides have ended for the time being or could continue going forward.

That Chicago would have interest in extending Crow-Armstrong’s stay in Chicago beyond his years of control is hardly surprising. The longtime top prospect came over from the Mets in the Javier Baez trade at the 2021 trade deadline, and he flew through the minor leagues after arriving in Chicago to make his big league debut late in the 2023 season. Crow-Armstrong’s offense has not been anything special during his time in the majors so far, with a 79 wRC+ overall and an 87 wRC+ in 123 games last year, but he’s more than made up for that lackluster performance at the plate with phenomenal work in the field and on the bases. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths last year, including 22 straight steals without being caught.

In the field, meanwhile, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among all outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field, meaning he put up those huge numbers despite getting less than three-quarters of a full season’s worth of reps. Overall, that defensive and baserunning ability was good for 2.7 fWAR last year despite him being 13% below league average as a hitter.

The fact that Crow-Armstrong has flashed a three-win floor when prorated out over a full season has to be enticing to the Cubs even before considering his solid work on offense in the second half last year, when he slashed .260/.309/.442 with a 108 wRC+ and nine homers over the season’s final three months. If the 23-year-old were ever able to reach that sort of offensive production on a consistent basis, he’d likely blossom into the sort of perennial All-Star Chicago is surely hoping for. That all makes trying to extend Crow-Armstrong, as many other clubs have done with youngsters like Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar, a sensible goal for the organization.

With that being said, offering Crow-Armstrong a hefty contract under the expectation that he will fulfill that offensive ceiling would be very risky. He certainly wouldn’t be the first extremely talented hitter with five-tool potential to fail to reach that ceiling in the big leagues, and Billy Hamilton’s career serves as a reminder of the fact that a player can’t expect to find success purely off elite defensive and baserunning even if they play a position as defensively important as center field. That surely contributed to a recent poll of MLBTR readers winding up split nearly down the middle on whether or not the Cubs should pursue an extension with the youngster, with just under 52% of respondents voting no.

Chicago’s solution for the wide gap between Crow-Armstrong’s current offensive abilities and his demonstrated potential seems to have been to err on the side of caution. An extension that guarantees Crow-Armstrong significantly less than $75MM would fall below the standard set by many other recent early-career extensions including the aforementioned Butler and Tovar deals as well as deals signed by players like Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell just after or before their big league debuts. It’s hard to properly evaluate the deal the Cubs offered Crow-Armstrong without knowing more about the structure; after all, even the deal between Detroit and infielder Colt Keith maxes out in a similar range ($82MM) as the one reported for Crow-Armstrong despite guaranteeing him just $28.6425MM.

Given that even mediocre hitters with the sort of elite defense that Crow-Armstrong possesses like Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier have been paid handsomely in free agency with one-year deals that often fall into the $10MM range, it makes sense that Crow-Armstrong would likely require a healthier guarantee than the one Keith received from the Tigers in order to sign on the dotted line. Evidently, the offer the Cubs presented his camp with did not pass muster, though with the youngster not presently set to hit free agency until after the 2030 season there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a deal that extends his stay in Chicago past those initial years of team control.

Seiya Suzuki Exits Due To Right Wrist Issue

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Cubs slugger Seiya Suzuki exited tonight’s game against the Dodgers this evening due to right wrist pain, per a team announcement. Suzuki was serving as the club’s DH in tonight’s game but was pinch hit for by Miguel Amaya in the fifth inning. As noted by Marquee Sports Network’s Taylor McGregor during the club’s broadcast of the game, Suzuki first dealt with soreness in his wrist during the club’s series against the Athletics in Sacramento last week while playing the outfield. Suzuki has played exclusively DH in the eight games since that series.

It’s unclear at this point whether Suzuki’s injury is a day-to-day situation or will require a trip to the injured list, but either outcome would leave Chicago without one of its best hitters. The Cubs offense has gotten off to a hot start this year, helping to lead the club to a solid 10-7 record to open the season with an MLB-best 113 runs scored. That’s nearly seven runs per game, and a huge part of that production has been the duo of offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker (206 wRC+ entering play this evening) and Suzuki (170 wRC+).

While that otherworldly start to the season from Suzuki is certainly impressive, he was already the club’s best hitter for the past three years prior to the Tucker trade this winter. Since coming over from Japan prior to the 2022 season, Suzuki is hitting .279/.356/.473 with a 131 wRC+ that’s tied with Pete Alonso and Joc Pederson for 22nd among qualified MLB hitters over that time. He was even more impressive last year, when he slashed .283/.366/.482 with a wRC+ of 138 in 132 games for the Cubs. Impressive as Suzuki’s numbers have been, staying healthy has been a challenge for him over the years. After playing 111 games in his rookie season due to finger sprain that sidelined him for over a month, Suzuki has missed time due to oblique strains in each of the past two seasons as well.

It remains to be seen if this latest ailment will require a trip to the injured list, but in the event that it does the Cubs are fortunately fairly well-suited to handle an absence from even one of their top hitters. Justin Turner signed with Chicago over the offseason to serve as a veteran presence off the bench and spell Michael Busch at first base and, while he’s hitting just .250/.346/.250 to this point in the season, that production has come in a sample size of just 26 plate appearances during which Turner has posted identical 11.5% strikeout and walk rates. Given his track record of above-average offense that spans more than a decade, Turner should be able to step into the lineup and serve as an effective fill-in option even if he can’t be expected to replace the elite production Suzuki has offered to this point in the year.

If the Cubs decide to bolster the lineup with one of their prospects at Triple-A instead of leaning on Turner, the options are somewhat less inspiring. Kevin Alcantara and James Triantos have both yet to get going even with the club’s Iowa affiliate, and calling either player up to help the club in the majors when they’re already struggling against minor league pitching could be a tall order. Owen Caissie is hitting a more robust .267/.365/.538 in seven games for Iowa this year after posting a 121 wRC+ at the level last season, but his penchant for strikeouts over the years makes his 40% strikeout rate to open the season all the more worrisome.

Cubs Sending Justin Steele For Second Opinion On Elbow Tendinitis

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The Cubs are sending Justin Steele for a second opinion on his elbow, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Alden González of ESPN and Maddie Lee of The Chicago Sun-Times). The southpaw landed on the 15-day injured list on Wednesday with elbow tendinitis, a surprising move that came two days after Steele fired seven shutout innings against Texas.

Steele told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Wednesday that he expected it to be a minimal 15-day stint. The Cubs sent him for an MRI on Thursday. Counsell did not specify the results of that imaging. To this point, there’s no indication it’s any more serious than the initial tendinitis diagnosis. It’s nevertheless of some concern any time a pitcher goes for multiple evaluations on an elbow problem.

Elbow tendinitis also sent Steele to the injured list for a couple weeks last September. Counsell indicated the recurring nature of the injury contributed to the decision to go for multiple opinions. “We want to make sure we know why it has happened again so Justin’s got all the information and then we can go from there,” the manager said.

Monday’s start was easily Steele’s best of the season. He’d allowed at least three runs in each of his first three appearances. Steele punched out eight against three hits and two walks against the Rangers. However, his fastball averaged a season-low 90.2 MPH in that start after sitting in the 91-92 range during his first three appearances. It clearly didn’t sap his effectiveness, but it was seemingly a sign that he wasn’t operating at full strength.

Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown are operating as Chicago’s rotation. They haven’t named a probable starter for what would have been Steele’s spot agains the Dodgers on Sunday. A scheduled off day yesterday could allow them to turn back to Brown on standard rest and delay the need for a fifth starter into next week’s series in San Diego.

Poll: Kyle Tucker’s Earning Power

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The biggest news from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which will keep him in Toronto through the end of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker were widely viewed as the top free agents of the coming offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the top of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the superstar outfielder who the Cubs gave up a massive package (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to acquire ahead of his final year of team control.

Tucker’s certainly validated that belief in him as an impact player during the early going this season. A career .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his game to an even higher level recently. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate last year before being limited to just 78 games by a fractured shin, but even in his last 250 games dating back to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest figure among all hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.

That lofty company, combined with the huge expectations created by $700MM+ deals for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created plenty of intrigue about where Guerrero’s contract could end up prior to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls short of that $700MM mark both Ohtani and Soto reached, although Ohtani’s deal includes massive amounts of deferred money that make it lower than Guerrero’s pact in terms of net present value. Questions remain, however, about how Tucker’s own eventual deal will compare to those names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the sort of standout carrying tool that other top stars have. He’s not a threat to hit 60 homers like Judge, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and certainly isn’t the sort of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.

With all that being said, however, Tucker gets to that elite tier of production by being well above average at just about everything. Among hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Tucker’s barrel rate (11.7%) is top-30 in the majors, and his isolated slugging percentage is seventh best. He combined that excellent power with similarly excellent plate discipline; his 14.1% strikeout rate is the eleventh-lowest, while his 13.8% walk rate is fourth behind Judge, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. While Soto remains the only player to walk more often than he strikes out, the 0.3% difference between Tucker’s strikeout and walk rates is the smallest among the rest of the league.

Tucker’s talent in the batters’ box is further augmented by strong work in other areas of the game. He’s a well-regarded defender in right field who won the AL’s Gold Glove award at the position in 2019, and while he’s not shown an ability to play a premium position like center field, it seems unlikely that he’ll need to make a move down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time soon. He’s also proved to be a solid contributor on the bases. Despite middling foot speed, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 attempts since the start of the 2020 season. That’s good for a phenomenal 89.2% success rate, and includes 25- and 30-steal efforts during the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was well on his way to another 20+ steal season in 2024 before being sidelined by injury, and with three bags swiped in just 15 games this year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him steal more than his fair share of extra bases this season as well.

Given Tucker’s all-around impressive skill set, it’s not hard to see why teams will be clamoring to bring him into the fold this winter. There’s even a fairly strong argument to be made that Tucker is a more valuable player than Guerrero, given that their career numbers are relatively similar at the dish and Tucker is a far more valuable player in the field and on the basepaths. With that being said, Tucker’s age could hold him back somewhat relative to the deals landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season, while Guerrero is currently in the midst of his own age-26 campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is two years older than Guerrero and will be marketing himself three years older than Soto was this past offseason.

It’s possible that could keep him below that half-billion dollar threshold that only Guerrero and Soto have managed to reach by measure of net present value, but he could still be in for a massive payday. After all, Judge landed $360MM over nine years in free agency when marketing his age-31 season, while Ohtani was roughly the same age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a net present value of just under $461MM for luxury tax purposes. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Daily Podcast earlier this week that a person from Tucker’s agency, Excel Sports Management, suggested an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That figure obviously comes with caveats aplenty given that the source is Tucker’s own agency and he’s just 15 games into his platform season, but that number would top both Judge and Ohtani’s contracts in terms of NPV.

How do MLBTR readers believe Tucker’s contract situation will play out? Will he be able to crack the $500MM threshold that only Soto and Guerrero have crossed so far? Have your say in the poll below:

Cubs Acquire Tom Cosgrove From Padres

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The Padres announced that they’ve dealt reliever Tom Cosgrove to the Cubs for cash considerations. Chicago designated righty Caleb Kilian for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot. San Diego had designated Cosgrove for assignment over the weekend.

Cosgrove, 28, was drafted by the Padres in 2017. San Diego added him to the 40-man roster during the 2022-23 offseason, a testament to the bat-missing ability he’d shown in the minors. Cosgrove made his major league debut the following April and managed strong numbers as a rookie. He turned in a 1.75 earned run average through 51 1/3 innings. His strikeout and walk profile was pedestrian, but he very rarely allowed hard contact and pitched well against lefty and righty batters alike.

The pendulum swung dramatically in the other direction last year. Cosgrove gave up 19 runs in 14 2/3 MLB innings spanning 18 appearances. Opponents’ average exit velocity jumped by three ticks while his strikeout rate dropped from 21.5% to 19.7%. Cosgrove spent most of the season in Triple-A, where he posted a 4.85 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout percentage in 32 appearances.

Cosgrove did not break camp after a rough Spring Training, in which he gave up seven runs through 5 1/3 frames. He has gotten out to a slow start in Triple-A as well, allowing three runs with four walks and two strikeouts in four appearances. The Cubs immediately optioned him. He’ll begin his Chicago tenure with their top affiliate in Iowa. This is his final minor league option year.

Kilian is in his last option season as well. The Texas Tech product was a decent prospect in the San Francisco farm system whom the Cubs acquired in the Kris Bryant deadline deal in 2021. Chicago also acquired outfield prospect Alexander Canario, whom they DFA and traded away a couple months ago. It’s possible they’ll lose Kilian via trade or waivers within the next week.

The 27-year-old righty never established himself on Chicago’s staff. He has made five starts and three relief appearances going back to 2022. Kilian owns a 9.22 ERA in 27 1/3 innings thus far. He has issued 20 walks while recording only 21 strikeouts. Kilian has better numbers over four seasons at the Triple-A level. He carries a 4.37 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.8% strikeout rate across 274 innings at the top minor league level. Most of that has come as a starter. Kilian has only started one Triple-A game so far this season. He was tagged for six runs on a trio of homers in 2 1/3 innings.

Cubs Place Justin Steele On Injured List

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11:05am: Steele tells ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that he first felt discomfort during his most recent start against the Rangers. He gutted through another couple innings, but the discomfort lingered in the days following that appearance. He believes it’ll be a minimum IL stint.

10:22am: The Cubs placed lefty Justin Steele on the 15-day injured list due to tendinitis in his left elbow, per a team announcement. Righty Ethan Roberts has been recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take his spot on the roster.

It’s something of a surprise IL placement for the excellent 29-year-old southpaw. The Cubs hadn’t previously acknowledged any elbow troubles for Steele — at least not publicly — and he’s coming off the best results of his season to date. He fired seven shutout innings with three hits, two walks and eight punchouts against the Rangers just two days ago.

Steele’s fastball averaged just 90.2 mph during that outing, however, tying him for the lowest mark of his career. At first glance, that could’ve been chalked up to frigid low-30s temperatures at Wrigley Field, but it seems there’s at least some degree of elbow trouble at play. On the whole, Statcast has measured Steele’s average heater at 90.8 mph this season — a career-low mark that’s down even relative to his early work in prior seasons.

The Cubs haven’t given any sort of timetable for Steele’s absence. He’ll be sidelined into late April at the very least, joining fellow starter Javier Assad on the injured list. The Cubs still have Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Ben Brown locked into rotation spots. Veteran swingman Colin Rea seems likely to step into the starting five in place of Steele, though lefty Jordan Wicks gives Chicago a healthy option who’s on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A. Fellow Triple-A starter Caleb Kilian, also on the 40-man roster, was placed on the minor league IL over the weekend after giving up six runs in 2 1/3 innings during his 2025 debut.

The Cubs have an off-day tomorrow — one of five remaining off-days on their schedule in the month of April. They still have six consecutive days with a game from April 11-16, so they’ll need a fifth starter during that stretch, but they can plug Rea or Wicks in as the starter in a de facto bullpen game and navigate the rest of the month with only four starters, pending the rest of the group’s health.

Roberts, 27, has pitched in a pair of big league seasons with the Cubs but has yet to cement himself as a regular in the bullpen. He’ll give manager Craig Counsell a fresh arm for now, and his early work in Iowa is certainly eye-catching; he’s appeared in three games, tallied 4 1/3 innings and held opponents scoreless on four hits and no walks with eight strikeouts.

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