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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a somewhat average first half, the Cincinnati Reds collapsed after the All-Star break and ultimately finished last in the NL Central. The result was a second consecutive 68-94 record and a fourth consecutive losing season. The organization will now need to answer some tough questions, including what they’ll do to improve a historically bad pitching staff, and whether or not they ought to try and sell off some established players like Billy Hamilton.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Overview

With about $68.7MM tied up in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, along with $18MM in projected arbitration salaries, the Cincinnati Reds face limited retooling options for their 2018 roster. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, it seems as though the small-market Reds have more holes to fill on their roster than space in the budget. Top prospect Nick Senzel is likely to contribute at some point next season (according to comments made by GM Dick Williams), but he’d only fill a hole in the lineup left by Zack Cozart, who will either depart or become expensive to retain. Within a fiercely competitive division that includes four other teams pushing to contend, it’s unlikely that a few cheap patches will vault the Reds into contention within the NL Central.

Williams has stated that the team is interested in discussing a new deal with Cozart, but the Reds won’t be the only team vying for his services. The Rays, Royals, and Padres are all in need of a shortstop for the long-term. The Orioles could take a look as well, considering incumbent Tim Beckham’s horrid September and relative uncertainty. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in using him at second base as well. His .297/.385/.548 slash line this past season and solid defense made Cozart the fourth-most valuable shortstop in baseball by fWAR. Even if the Reds are willing to shell out the cash needed to keep their All-Star shortstop, there’s still the chance he’d rather play with a more likely contender. If Cozart ends up elsewhere, former top prospect Jose Peraza seems like the best bet to take his place at short.

The first decision the Reds will need to make on Cozart this offseason will be whether or not to issue him a $17.4MM qualifying offer. The rules are different overall this season, but the implications for Cozart and the Reds would likely remain the same. Because the Reds received revenue sharing in 2017, they would gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2018 draft next June, if Cozart signs a contract with another team worth at least $50MM. The additional pick (and corresponding slot money) would be a great asset to the club’s rebuild. But for the Reds and their limited payroll space, $17.4MM could end up severely handcuffing them in a non-contending season. That salary, along with guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections and league minimum salaries for the rest of the roster, would push their payroll north of $111MM for 2018, which would fall just $4MM short of their 2015 club record payroll. Such a high payroll could hurt the organization’s capacity to fill other holes on the roster through free agency. With Peraza waiting as a shortstop option with some upside, there’s at least a small chance the Reds could decide not to take the risk of giving Cozart a QO.

Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be healthy enough in time for spring training to join Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey in a rotation that struggled mightily last year; Reds starters allowed the most homers in baseball and finished with the second-highest ERA and walk rate. Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, Tim Adleman, Amir Garrett and top prospect Tyler Mahle are internal options for the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds don’t sign anyone. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll be involved in the bidding for a top-tier starter due to their limited payroll space. There’s a chance they could give a three- or four-year contract to a number two or three starter type, but even that seems like a stretch given the risks involved and the fact that they aren’t likely to make the playoffs in the near future. Instead, they might end up exploring veteran options like Jaime Garcia and Andrew Cashner who have some upside and could eat innings for Cincinnati on less expensive contracts.

Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the Reds’ bullpen is still a disaster. After being so bad that they literally set records in 2016, their relievers combined to post the fourth-worst ERA in the majors this past year. 16 relievers pitched at least ten innings for Cincinnati this season, and nobody outside of Iglesias contributed more than 0.50 Win Probability Added (WPA). They’re likely to sign a couple of veterans in free agency, but it’ll be like trying to cover a bullet wound with a band-aid. It’s likely that we’ll see the Reds once again churn through a large number of relievers in hopes that someone will develop into a reliable setup option. Michael Lorenzen will be worth watching; he showed some promise as a multi-inning reliever before collapsing to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in the second half.

Even the lineup isn’t a true strength. Cincinnati finished middle of the pack in most offensive categories, even while playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Most of that lineup will be coming back, but it seems like the Reds will have to hope that high-pedigree hitters Peraza and Jesse Winker can take big steps forward. Even then, it’s not a sure bet that Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler will be able to replicate their 2017 breakout performances. On-base engine Joey Votto will anchor the lineup, but they’d need a lot to break right around him in order to consistently keep up with the runs their pitching staff is likely to allow.

Should the Reds decide to double down on their rebuild, they do have some assets that could help them further strengthen their farm system. Billy Hamilton and Gennett become free agents after the 2019 season. Neither is likely to play October baseball with the Reds before then; many of Cincinnati’s best prospects are still at least two years away, and the money owed to Bailey won’t make things easy on their payroll during that time. I already wrote about a few potential trade partners for Hamilton. Finding a partner for Gennett wouldn’t be too difficult; he’s capable of playing second, third and left field and is coming off the best offensive season of his career (though his continued struggles against lefties could limit his market).

Iglesias is another piece who could bring back a significant haul… recent deals for high-end relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Ken Giles have all brought back top 100 prospects to the selling teams. Though Iglesias hasn’t yet established himself to the level of Miller or Chapman, it’s easy to see him fetching a return similar to that of Giles.

Breakout infielder Eugenio Suarez could fetch a good return as well. However, since Iglesias and Suarez are both under control for another three seasons, they’re less likely to be traded. Joey Votto could be a trade asset, but his contract has a full no-trade clause, and he’s plainly stated that he doesn’t plan on waiving it.

There’s certainly no guarantee that the Reds will end up trading away Hamilton or Gennett. But if they do, they could look to fill holes in the center and the infield. Phil Ervin and Dilson Herrera are next on the depth chart respectively, but there are some free agent fill-in options as well. Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis are examples of free agent center fielders that might get a close look should Hamilton change uniforms. There are a few free agent veterans that could be candidates to fill in as a stopgap at second base until Senzel is ready to take a spot on the big league roster if the team decides to move Gennett, but it seems more likely they would look at internal options or waiver claims.

One big question for the Reds this offseason is whether or not they’ll attempt to unload Bailey’s contract. It’s likely they’d need to eat a significant portion of it even if they do manage to trade him, but it’s possible that a big-budget team might be willing to take a chance on the expensive right-hander. The Phillies, for example, have a lot of payroll space and could afford to take a chance on Bailey rebounding and reestablishing some value. However, it would be difficult to convince any team to take on more than $10MM of his contract. With his value at a low point, the Reds might be best served to open the season with him in the rotation, and hope he can bounce back a bit before the trade deadline. At the very least, he’s better than most of the internal options behind him, and they’d likely spend at least some money on a free agent starter if they traded him, anyway.

It’s difficult to imagine the Reds making any major splashes in free agency. They’ll might sign one or two cheap veteran relievers, but that’s not going to simply fix their bullpen. Perhaps they’ll explore the market for starting pitchers, but unless they manage to retain Cozart, they probably won’t dole out significant money to land a big-name player. Instead, we’ll probably see them make some pitching acquisitions via waiver claim and maybe even the Rule 5 Draft, the latter depending on whether or not they choose to sell off some key pieces.

While the odds are stacked against the Reds posting a winning season in 2018, there are some high-end prospects in their minor league system that are worth being excited about. The next few seasons could prove tough for Cincinnati fans if the Reds choose to have a fire sale, but there’s plenty of upside in the organization, both at the major league level and down on the farm. So, will the Reds tear down their roster even further to supplement that talent? If not, to what extent will they attempt to push through their disadvantages in an effort to win? The Reds’ offseason will be a fun one to track.

Peraza Prepping For Shortstop Role In Winter Ball

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  • Jose Peraza is already playing winter ball in Venezuela as he prepares for the possibility of an everyday role as the Reds’ shortstop in 2018, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. While there’s still a chance that Zack Cozart could be back in Cincinnati next season, Peraza is the favorite to take over the position if Cozart receives more lucrative offers elsewhere. Peraza is currently the top internal option at short, Sheldon notes, and the fleet-footed 23-year-old tells Sheldon that he plans to get as many reps at shortstop as he can this winter in order to work on his defense there. Peraza has bounced between short, second base and the outfield with the Reds and didn’t rate favorably there in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, though focusing on one position could of course help to improve those results.

Brandon Finnegan Expects To Be Healthy For Spring Training

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  • Reds southpaw Brandon Finnegan, who made just four starts this season due to trouble in both shoulders, tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he has “completely” healed and is anticipating a normal offeason and Spring Training. “I’ve got more rotation in my right shoulder than I had before I got hurt,” said Finnegan. “That’s a good thing. I’ll start working out in November and throwing in December. I’ll keep up with my running, and that’s it.” Finnegan twice suffered a strained teres major muscle in his throwing shoulder and also was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder after an off-the-field fall in July. The Reds will be counting on the 24-year-old former first-rounder to come back healthy, alongside righties Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey, to help stabilize the rotation.

Reds’ GM On Cozart, Young Players, Rebuild

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Reds president of baseball operations and general manager Dick Williams sat down with C. Trent Rosecrans and Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer for an excellent, lengthy Q&A covering a number of topics pertaining to the Reds’ upcoming offseason and ongoing rebuild.

Of most interest, perhaps, was the fact that Williams was straightforward in stating that he planned to “continue to talk” to Zack Cozart about the possibility of re-signing the shortstop. The 32-year-old Cozart is up for free agency for the first time in his career, and while his age might not necessarily align with the rebuilding Reds’ timeline to contend, he’s one of the team’s longest-tenured players and is fresh off a career year at the plate. In 507 plate appearances, he hit .297/.385/.548 with a career-high 24 homers and a dramatically improved walk rate (to say nothing of his typically excellent glovework at shortstop).

The Reds will face a tough decision on Cozart, who seems to at the very least be a candidate for a $17.4MM qualifying offer. (MLBTR readers were split about 55-45 in favor of the Reds giving him a QO in early September.) If Cozart isn’t retained, though, it doesn’t sound as if the Reds’ top priority would be to delve into the free-agent or trade markets to attempt to replace him.

“[T]he primary candidate would be (Jose) Peraza,” said Williams when discussing a replacement for Cozart, if needed. “We believe that he showed at the end of ’16 with an extended look that this is a young, athletic, talented player. He’s still one of the youngest guys on our roster. … This year, we really asked him to move around a decent amount. I think that made it a little tougher on him than if he settled in at one spot.”

Peraza is, as Williams suggests, still somewhat of a work in progress. Although he’s spent the bulk of the past two seasons in the Major Leagues, Peraza won’t even turn 24 until April 30 of next year. The former top 100 prospect demonstrated a good deal of promise with an impressive .324/.352/.411 batting line and 21 steals in 72 games last year, but he struggled for the majority of the 2017 campaign before turning things around in the season’s last couple of months. In Peraza’s final 48 games (31 starts), he batted .293/.361/.338 with just 18 strikeouts in 149 plate appearances.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart and payroll outlook]

Williams did go on to state that while he believes Eugenio Suarez to be capable of playing shortstop, he likes Suarez at third base and would like to have two additional players on the roster that can handle shortstop regularly. Conceivably, that could mean a re-signed Cozart and Peraza, or Peraza and a veteran bench option with experience at the shortstop position as well.

More broadly, Williams didn’t reject the notion that top prospect and former No. 2 overall pick Nick Senzel could play in the Majors next season, though it doesn’t sound as if the team will rush him out of Spring Training. Senzel, according to Williams, is capable of playing second, third, shortstop and perhaps even the outfield corners, but the team is reluctant to bounce him around the diamond too much. Second base seems to be a position at which he’ll get a look, as the Reds have Suarez thriving at the hot corner presently.

Senzel raked at a .321/.391/.514 clip in 507 PAs between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last year, mashing his way through the Southern League to the point that many expect him to begin the 2018 season in Triple-A. Scooter Gennett, of course, gives the team another option at second base, though with just two years of club control remaining, I’d imagine that the Reds wouldn’t have many qualms about ultimately moving him if and when Senzel proves ready (though that’s just my own speculation).

Williams also spoke at length about the struggles of several of the Reds’ young pitchers in 2017, noting the lack of innings most of the team’s young starters were able to log in Triple-A. Injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan and Homer Bailey forced Cincinnati to tap into its reservoir of young pitchers more often than the team would’ve liked. Jesse Winker is also discussed quite a bit, with Williams hinting that he’s intrigued by Winker’s high-OBP skill set as a potential top-of-the-order option. Just 24 years old, Winker hit .298/.375/.529 with seven homers, a 10.9 percent walk rate and a 17.5 percent strikeout rate in 137 big league plate appearances.

While no one should expect the Reds to shell out top dollar in free agency this winter, the GM does suggest that he’ll have some money to spend and that the team’s list of targets is a broad one, including some players looking to move from Japan over to the Major League (and more than just the highly publicized Shohei Otani). The entire Q&A is (obviously) stuffed with quotes from Cincinnati’s top baseball ops executive and is well worth a full read for Reds fans and non-Reds fans alike. Williams gives plenty of insight into where he feels the team is at in its rebuild, his own thoughts on his first year as a general manager and the team’s approach in the upcoming offseason.

Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade

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After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.

Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.

The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.

So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.

With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.

Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.

Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

DeSclafani Throws Seven Innings In Instructs

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  • In some other notable injury news, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani threw seven innings in an instructional league start today. That could be DeSclafani’s final start of instructional league play, though it’s nonetheless a positive step for a key part of the Cincinnati pitching staff after missing the entire 2017 season. DeSclafani was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament early in the year and was never able to make it back to a Major League mound during the regular season.

Rookie Davis Undergoes Hip Surgery

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Reds right-hander Rookie Davis has undergone surgery on his right hip, per a club announcement (h/t MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, on Twitter). Specifically, repair work was done to the labrum and a bone spur was removed.

The procedure is a rather significant one, it seems. Davis will have an entire winter to rest and rehab, but the team says he is not expected to be ready to begin spring camp with the rest of the roster in mid-February.

With the news, it seems the Reds will have one less early-season rotation option on hand. Presumably, though, Davis will work back up to strength at some point during the 2018 campaign. Regardless, adding some pitching depth likely remains the Reds’ top priority this winter.

Though the 24-year-old Davis was perhaps not a leading candidate to claim one of the five rotation spots, he surely would have had an opportunity to compete for a job during camp. And given the organization’s views on pitching usage — including a focus on multi-inning relievers — it certainly stands to reason that Davis would have had a chance of earning a significant role of some kind out of the gates.

Instead, the youngster will have a chance to iron out some pitching kinks even as he rebuilds strength in his hip. He struggled to an 8.63 ERA over his first 24 major-league frames in 2017. But Davis did show better at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.43 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.

Notably, Davis will accrue MLB service while he’s on the 60-day DL since he ended the season on the big-league roster. Cincinnati will still control him for the foreseeable future, leaving plenty of time for the club to recoup some value from one of the four players received in the 2015 Aroldis Chapman trade. (Among the others, only Eric Jagielo remains with the organization; he has struggled in the upper minors and has yet to reach the bigs.)

Central Notes: Royals, Reds, Jose Ramirez

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Via Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, Royals GM Dayton Moore details the elements of an uncertain offseason for Kansas City. The organization will go “one of two ways”, according to Moore. The first option is obvious; the club could choose to “gut the team” in a complete teardown, saving money and going for high draft picks. But Moore does detail an ambitious alternative: trying to retain their free agent stars. “Everybody assumes that we are just going to just get blown away in free agency, and we don’t have a chance,” he tells Dodd. “They may be right, but I think everybody felt that way about Alex Gordon at the time. That fell back to us. You just never really know.” Indeed, there are rumblings that one of the Royals’ biggest offseason priorities will be to retain star first baseman Eric Hosmer. But with the 2017 Royals’ payroll setting a franchise record for the fifth consecutive year while delivering a losing season, Moore does make one blunt concession. “It’s very clear to us that we need to get younger and more athletic. We’re going to continue with that mindset as we go forward into the future.”

More from baseball’s central divisions…

  • Ken Rosenthal details the elements of a bittersweet postseason for Reds scouting director Chris Buckley in a piece for The Athletic (subscription required and recommended). Seven players originally signed by the Reds are currently playing October baseball with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, including infielders Didi Gregorius and Justin Turner. While the presence of former Cincinnati signees gives Buckley a clear rooting interest, it also evokes painful memories of the two scouts he lost to cancer in recent years.
  • David Waldstein of the New York Times tells the fascinating story of how superstar infielder Jose Ramirez first came to the Indians. According to Waldstein, Ramon Pena (then an international scout for Cleveland) attended a three-game showcase in the Dominican Republic largely to gawk at invitees Jorge Alfaro and Martin Peguero, but noticed Ramirez playing with surprising confidence and determination. During a subsequent telephone call with a local trainer who represented the players, Pena was focused on trying to sign Alfaro. When he learned that Alfaro was asking for $1.5 million, the conversation shifted to Ramirez. Pena eventually talked the trainer down from $300,000 all the way to $50,000. After an agreement was in place, however, Pena was unable to gather the papers required for Ramirez to play in the United States, so he sat out the 2010 season and instead spent the year working out at the Indians’ facility in Boca Chica. The team managed to get Ramirez’ papers in order in time for the 2011 season, and Ramirez sped through the minor leagues, making his MLB debut just two years later.

Reds Notes: Otani, Rookie Affiliate

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Reds general manager Dick Williams was on hand to witness what might have been right-hander Shohei Otani’s final start in Nippon Professional Baseball, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Otani didn’t disappoint, as he held the Orix Buffaloes to just two hits while racking up 10 strikeouts in a masterful shutout. Per Rosecrans, the Reds have legitimate interest in signing Otani despite the fact that they’re prohibited from signing an international amateur — and Otani does qualify as an amateur under MLB’s 2017-21 CBA despite significant pro experience in Japan — for more than $300K. Otani’s decision to leave well over $100MM on the table to jump to MLB this offseason instead of two years from now suggests that money isn’t his ultimate motivation, thus giving Cincinnati and other clubs in the international “penalty box” some degree of hope. That said, Rosecrans notes that Cincinnati is still a long shot to sign Otani, who may land in the AL where he can serve as a DH when not pitching.

  • The Reds have decided to add a lower-level affiliate, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. The Cincinnati organization will own and operate a ballclub in the Appalachian League, taking the open slot for a team in Greeneville, Tennessee. Jumping on this opportunity was part of a longstanding effort to add another lower-level affiliate, Buchanan notes.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/4/17

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • Righty Rob Wooten tweets that he has agreed to a new deal with the Reds for the 2018 season. Presumably, it’s a minor-league deal. The 32-year-old had joined Cincinnati on a minors pact for the 2017 season, but only made six Triple-A appearances before going down with injury. Despite previously working almost exclusively from the bullpen, Wooten was starting before he was hurt. He racked up an impressive 26:5 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 frames, but also allowed 18 earned runs on 34 hits. Wooten will attempt to work back to the majors for the first time since 2015; he has compiled 68 total frames of 5.03 ERA pitching at the game’s highest level, spread over three seasons.
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