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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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Despite a quiet offseason, the Guardians returned to contention in 2024. They won 92 games and the AL Central crown before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. As November approaches, two related questions loom large for this team: Will the surprising success of their rivals in Detroit and Kansas City convince the Guardians to do more this winter to defend their division title? Or will the potential loss of local media revenue lead to another slow offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • José Ramírez, 3B: $88MM through 2028
  • Andrés Giménez, 2B: $96.86MM through 2029 ($23MM club option for 2030 with $2.5MM buyout)
  • Myles Straw, CF: $13.8MM through 2026 ($8MM club option for 2027 with $1.75MM buyout and $8.5MM club option for ‘28 with a $500K buyout)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $11.3MM through 2026 ($10MM club options for 2027 and ‘28 with $2MM buyout for ‘27 and $1MM buyout for ‘28)
  • Trevor Stephan, RHP: $5.8MM through 2026 ($7.25MM club option for 2027 with $1.25MM buyout and $7.5 club option for ‘28 with no buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Jean Segura, INF: $2MM buyout owed on $10MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $45.17MM
Total future commitments: $225.26MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Karinchak, McKenzie, Hentges

Free Agents

The top teams are often the most well-rounded, but the 2024 Guardians were defined by their strengths and weaknesses. Their bullpen was the best in baseball, but their starters were unreliable for most of the year. Meanwhile, their offense was excellent against left-handed pitching but struggled to score against righties. They were also one of the better defensive teams in the league by almost every metric, but their baserunning numbers were surprisingly mediocre. First and foremost, the Guardians need to focus on their scoring, and not run prevention, this winter. That said, they could badly use a couple more reliable options for the rotation.

All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan led the offense in 2024, and they’ll be back at the top of the order again next year. Even the notoriously stingy and trade-happy Guardians wouldn’t possibly part with their star third baseman, who continues to look like an absolute bargain on the seven-year, $141MM extension he signed in 2022. As for Kwan, the left fielder is a strong extension candidate himself after another terrific season. 

Additional veterans in the lineup include the slugging Josh Naylor at first base, defensive stalwart Andrés Giménez at second, and trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas in center field. Youngsters Kyle Manzardo (DH), Bo Naylor (C), and Brayan Rocchio (SS) should have spots in next year’s starting nine as well. All three had up-and-down seasons, but considering their recent top prospect status, there’s little reason to think they won’t get to continue their development with the big league club in 2025. Indeed, the best way for Cleveland to improve its offense next year will be to get more production out of Manzardo, Bo Naylor, and Rocchio.

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White Sox Managerial Search Reportedly Down To Three Finalists

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The White Sox are on the hunt for a new manager and might be getting closer to a decision. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today on X, the three finalists for the job are Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz and former Angels manager Phil Nevin.

As noted by Nightengale, this could make for an interesting standoff. The Sox are one of two clubs on the hunt for a new manager, with the other being the Marlins. It was reported yesterday by Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald that Venable and Albernaz are the two finalists for the Marlins gig, so there’s plenty of overlap in the two searches.

Nevin, 53, appears to be the one name on the radar of the Sox but not the Marlins. Jon Heyman of The New York Post listed him as a candidate a few weeks ago and it seems Nevin is still in the running. He’s also the only one in the group with previous managerial experience. He was working as the Angels third base coach in 2022 when manager Joe Maddon was fired. The club gave Nevin the gig on an interim basis and eventually re-signed him for the 2023 campaign but didn’t extend his contract after that.

The club went 119-149 during his time there, but that might not say much about his abilities as a skipper. The club also posted poor results before he had the job and after he left, meaning the poor record is likely more a reflection of roster construction as opposed to a lack of dugout leadership.

After parting ways with the Angels, Nevin interviewed for the managerial vacancy in San Diego but that job went to Mike Shildt and Nevin didn’t land a gig elsewhere for the 2024 season. Prior to joining the Angels, he spent about a decade in the majors as a player before pivoting into coaching. He worked in indy ball and then in the minors with the Tigers and Diamondbacks. He then had major league coaching jobs with the Giants and Yankees before landing with the Angels.

Venable is also a former player with plenty of coaching experience. He was a base coach with the Cubs for the 2018-2020 seasons before becoming the bench coach with the Red Sox. He’s spent the past two years as associate manager for the Rangers under skipper Bruce Bochy.

He was listed as a candidate for managerial gigs last winter with the Guardians and Mets but reportedly declined to be interviewed as he was happy with the Rangers. Now it appears that he’s giving more consideration to a change. Heyman reported yesterday that Venable was in Miami to interview for that gig and a move to the South Side of Chicago seems to be feasible as well.

Albernaz never cracked the majors as a player, spending almost a decade in the minors from 2006 through 2014. After that, he started his coaching career in the minor league system of the Rays. Prior to the 2020 season, he was added to the major league staff of the Giants as bullpen and catching coach. A year ago, the Guardians hired him to be their bench coach, working under new manager Stephen Vogt.

It’s been speculated by some that Albernaz is the favorite for the Miami job, given his history with Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. When Albernaz was coaching for the Rays in the minors, Bendix was working for that club, eventually becoming general manager in December of 2021.

Pedro Grifol was fired as White Sox manager during the most recent season and replaced by Grady Sizemore on an interim basis. Sizemore had been identified as a candidate to take the job more permanently but Nightengale’s report suggests he’s behind this trio of Venable, Albernaz and Nevin.

Plenty of other names have been connected to the job but many have reportedly been eliminated from the running, including former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso, Tigers bench coach George Lombard, Rangers bench coach and offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and Padres special assistant A.J. Ellis.

Teams are generally discouraged from announcing big news on days when a playoff game is taking place. Even if the White Sox make a final decision soon, it may not be publicly reported until the World Series is done or gets to Thursday’s off-day.

Will Venable, Craig Albernaz Reportedly Finalists For Marlins Manager

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Rangers associate manager Will Venable and Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz are finalists for the Marlins’ managerial vacancy, report Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It seems the search will come down to one of those two. Mish notes in a separate post (on X) that he’s “not aware” of other finalists, though he leaves the door slightly open for the possibility of a mystery candidate emerging.

If it is indeed down to Venable and Albernaz, they’ll settle on Skip Schumaker’s replacement shortly. (An announcement may not come in the next few days, as MLB discourages teams from releasing significant news on days with a postseason game.) The Herald reports that both Albernaz and Venable are flying to Miami for in-person meetings with owner Bruce Sherman after conducting Zoom interviews for the first round. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Venable’s latest interview is occurring today.

Venable and Albernaz have been two of the hottest names in this year’s managerial cycle. They’ve both gotten consideration from the White Sox in their search. Venable has interviewed for the Chicago position. It’s not clear if Albernaz has had a formal sit-down with Sox brass or is simply on their list of potential hires.

Neither has major league managerial experience. Venable might have gotten an MLB job by now if he hadn’t taken himself out of consideration in previous offseasons. The former outfielder has a fair amount of experience as the #2 on a coaching staff. He spent two seasons as Alex Cora’s bench coach in Boston and has logged the last two years as an associate manager under Bruce Bochy in Arlington. The 42-year-old, a Princeton product, also logged three years on the Cubs’ staff after ending his playing career in 2016.

Albernaz, 41, did not reach the big leagues as a player. He has less experience than Venable in the coaching ranks as well. He joined the Giants as bullpen and catching coach during the 2019-20 offseason. After four seasons in San Francisco, he made the jump to bench coach for first-year skipper Stephen Vogt in Cleveland.

While Albernaz only has one year in a bench coach role, he’s a known commodity for Miami baseball operations president Peter Bendix and assistant GM Gabe Kapler. Albernaz was a minor league player and coach in the Rays’ organization while Bendix was Tampa Bay’s general manager. His four years with the Giants coincided with Kapler’s managerial tenure.

In other staffing news, MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola reports (on X) that Miami has hired Joe Migliaccio as director of hitting. Migliaccio, who had been with the Yankees as a hitting coordinator, will work in the player development department and oversee the team’s offensive performance at multiple levels. He is not going to be the MLB hitting coach. That role has yet to be filled and will probably wait until the managerial decision. Miami parted ways with Schumaker’s entire staff, including hitting coach John Mabry.

Latest On White Sox Managerial Search

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Reports from earlier today removed a couple of names from consideration as the next White Sox manager, though the team’s search continues to be seemingly pretty fluid.  Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz is a new name in the mix according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X), while interim manager Grady Sizemore is still in the running and Tigers bench coach George Lombard is also no longer a candidate.

Since the White Sox and Marlins are the only teams currently looking for a new skipper, many of the same candidates are appearing in both searches, with Albernaz’s name the latest crossover.  Albernaz has already interviewed in Miami and is considered one of the favorites for the position, as he has previous working relationships with both president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and assistant GM Gabe Kapler.

Like the White Sox, however, it isn’t yet entirely clear how close the Marlins might be to making an actual hire, or if any other candidates might still emerge.  Lombard and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough both interviewed with Miami and are apparently still under consideration for that job, even if Chicago is moving in another direction.

Albernaz (who turns 42 later this week) just completed his first season in Cleveland, after working as the Giants’ bullpen/catching coach over the 2019-22 seasons.  This makes him a known quantity to White Sox pitching advisor Brian Bannister, who was San Francisco’s director of pitching for the last three of Albernaz’s seasons in the Bay Area.  The Giants job marked Albernaz’s first role on a big league coaching staff, as he spent the previous five seasons as a manager, coach, and coordinator in the Rays’ farm system.

The 2024 season was also Sizemore’s first time on a Major League staff, and his first pro coaching job at any level.  After Pedro Grifol was fired in August, Sizemore was something of a surprise choice as Chicago’s interim manager, and he led the team to a 13-32 record in the final stretch of what ended up as a singularly disastrous 121-loss season.  GM Chris Getz said Sizemore would continue to be a candidate within the team’s search for a full-time bench boss, but Sizemore’s coaching contract runs through the 2025 season, so he might well be back anyway in some capacity if he isn’t retained as manager.

The list of known candidates still in the running for the White Sox position include Sizemore, Albernaz, former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, former Angels manager Phil Nevin, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso.

Trade Candidate: Josh Naylor

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Since Josh Naylor didn’t sign an extension with the Guardians during his pre-arbitration years, it has always seemed like there has been a ticking clock on the first baseman’s time in the Cleve.  With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stay with the franchise, a look at Cleveland’s extension history over the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the simple truth that the Guards virtually never sign players to long-term extensions for significant salaries once they get within a year or two of free agency.

Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process.  It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.

A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023.  That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP.  Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed.  On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.

All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter.  It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.

The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars.  MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.

In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business.  And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core.  Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency.  That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.

Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however.  Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter.  Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.

While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market.  For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns.  Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors.  The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.

Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks.  The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup.  Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season.  The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth.  It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.

The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons.  Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.

Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster.  Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span.  Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.

Reds Hire Chris Valaika As Hitting Coach

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The Reds announced today that Chris Valaika has been hired as director of hitting and major league hitting coach. He had previously been with the Guardians as that club’s hitting coach but will now move to the other side of Ohio.

Valaika, 39, was originally a third-round draft pick of the Reds back in 2006. He played in the majors from 2010 to 2014, for the Reds, Marlins and Cubs, and then pivoted to coaching after his playing days. He started in the minor league system of the Cubs, eventually working his way up to the major league staff with that club. He was hired by the Guardians going into 2022, working under then-manager Terry Francona.

Francona stepped away after 2023 to focus on his health, with Stephen Vogt taking over as Cleveland’s skipper. Francona is ready to return to a managerial role, as it was reported earlier this month than he’ll be leading the Reds starting with the 2025 season, replacing David Bell.

A few days after Francona’s hiring became public, it was reported that Cincinnati was moving on from hitting coach Joel McKeithan as well as assistant hitting coaches Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte. One of those positions has now been filled with a familiar face for Francona.

In 2022, the Guardians hit .254/.316/.383 for a wRC+ of 100. That indicates they were exactly league average, though their 18.2% strikeout rate was the lowest in the majors by a notable margin, with the Astros second at 19.5%. The Cleveland offense dipped a bit in 2023, with a .250/.313/.381 line and 91 wRC+, but again with the best strikeout rate in the league. Here in 2024, they dropped to fifth-lowest in terms of strikeout rate but added some more power, getting to a .238/.307/.395 line and 100 wRC+ as they pushed as far as the ALCS.

It’s always difficult to separate the contributions of a coach from the performances of the players on the team, but Francona presumably had a good relationship with Valaika during their two years together, as he has now plucked him away and brought him to Cincinnati.

MLBTR Podcast: The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The upcoming World Series (0:30)
  • White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf reportedly talking about selling the team (4:35)
  • The hurricane damage to Tropicana Field and the complicated situation the Rays are in (18:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Should the Guardians trade Josh Naylor and what would the return look like? (27:05)
  • What would a Masyn Winn or Alec Burleson extension look like? Could the Cardinals still hammer out a deal even with the current budget constraints? (35:00)
  • What do you think the Red Sox will do this winter? (42:05)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here
  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Central Notes: Ecker, White Sox, Lynn, Cardinals, Pirates

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Reports surfaced last week that the Rangers had given permission for Donnie Ecker to interview with the White Sox about their managerial opening, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) wrote that Ecker is no longer under consideration for the job.  Ecker will instead return for what will presumably be his fourth season as the Rangers’ bench coach and offensive coordinator.

Ecker’s departure from the search could simply be due to a personal preference to remain in Texas, rather than necessarily a sign that the White Sox are getting any closer to hiring their new skipper.  SoxMachine’s James Fegan described the managerial search last week as still being short of any official list of finalists, even though the team had already eliminated some candidates while still aiming to speak to some other names working for teams still alive in the playoffs.  Dodgers coaches Clayton McCullough and Danny Lehmann are two names linked to the Sox that might fit this description, though a wide range of names are rumored to be on Chicago’s list.  Most of the rumored candidates (like Ecker) would be first-time managers at the big league level, though Skip Schumaker and Phil Nevin both have past experience running MLB clubs.

More from both the AL and NL Central…

  • A pair of IL stints due to right knee inflammation limited to Lance Lynn to just two starts over the last two months of the season, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Lynn is feeling better “and expects to have a normal offseason of preparation.”  This is good news for Lynn as he heads into his 14th Major League season, and despite the knee issues, Lynn still had a solid 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings for the Cardinals.  Since the Cards are planning to cut payroll in a rebuild year, it isn’t a guarantee that Lynn’s $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) will be exercised, though St. Louis is probably more likely to pick up the option and then shop Lynn on the trade market this winter.
  • In other Cardinals news, Goold reports that longtime front office staffer Matt Slater is leaving the organization.  Slater has been with the team since 2007 working as a scout, director of player personnel, and (for the last seven seasons) as a special assistant to the GM in a player procurement capacity.  These roles meant that Slater was directly involved in the acquisition of several notable Cards players, and Goold notes that Slater was particularly influential in the team’s international scouting practices.  This resume drew Slater some attention from the Tigers and Phillies in past GM searches, and he probably shouldn’t have much trouble landing a new gig with another team.
  • The Pirates have hired Kevin Tenenbaum to lead their analytics department as the club’s new VP of research and development, according to reporter John Dreker (X link).  The 32-year-old Tenenbaum has spent the last seven seasons in Cleveland’s R&D department, working as the director in 2022 and then VP of the Guardians’ analytics team this past season.  This experience with another lower-spending team is surely of interest to the Pirates, especially given the Guards have been a lot more consistently competitive than the Bucs have in recent years despite working with generally comparative payroll.

Six Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

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