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Edwin Diaz

AL West Notes: Mariners, Fiers, Adell, Whitley, Astros

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The December 2018 trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets was a transformational moment in Mariners history, as it allowed Seattle to both escape a major salary commitment to Cano and also re-stock its farm system with some prime minor league talent in Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn.  Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto recently discussed the trade with The Athletic’s Corey Brock, looking back at how talks with the Mets developed, and how concurrent discussions with the Phillies about a Diaz trade helped make the Mets even more aggressive about swinging a deal to one-up their NL East rival.

More from around the AL West…

  • An MRI revealed hip inflammation for Athletics righty Mike Fiers, and manager Bob Melvin told Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links) that Fiers will receive an injection and be rested for a couple of days.  Fiers making the Opening Day roster is “a little bit of a long shot” for now, Melvin said.  The manager said yesterday that A.J. Puk or Daulton Jefferies are candidates to fill in for Fiers if an IL trip is required, with Puk the favorite if he is able to get enough innings under his belt during Spring Training.
  • Jo Adell is day-to-day with a knee contusion and will work out today, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter).  Adell had to leave Saturday’s game after a collision with the outfield wall, but the star Angels prospect doesn’t appear to have suffered any major injury setback.
  • Top Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley will miss the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he won’t be moved from the 40-man roster to the 60-day injured list due to a roster rule, as The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan explains.  Because Whitley doesn’t have any MLB service time and because he was optioned to the minors before March 16, the Astros can simply place him on the minor league IL.  This means Houston will have to use a 40-man roster spot on Whitley all season, but the Astros are unlikely to burn a season of Whitley’s service time by moving him from the 40-man to the 60-day Major League injured list.

Mets, Edwin Diaz Avoid Arbitration

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The Mets are avoiding arbitration with relievers Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro. Díaz will make $7MM next season, reports MLB.com Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Lugo comes in at $2.925MM, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Castro, meanwhile, will make $1.6875MM, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. All three pitchers are controllable through the end of the 2022 season.

Díaz comes in above his projected salary range of $5.1MM — $6.5MM. After a rocky first season in Queens, he was brilliant last year. The 26-year-old pitched to a 1.75 ERA with a 45.5% strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified relievers.

Lugo and Castro, meanwhile, fall within their projected ranges. Lugo had some tough bottom line results last year but much more impressive underlying numbers. Castro was adequate for the Mets, who acquired him midseason from the Orioles. Earlier today, New York also came to terms with Robert Gsellman and Dominic Smith.

Mariners Notes: Haniger, Outfield, Sixto, Phillies

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The latest from Seattle…

  • Though Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and Julio Rodriguez are expected to be part of the Mariners’ outfield of the future, Mitch Haniger is still a part of the team’s present.  Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times looks at Haniger and the broader outfield plan as a whole, noting that Haniger is expected to be ready to participate in Spring Training.  It has been a brutal 15 months for Haniger, who hasn’t played since June 2019 due to a ruptured testicle, a torn abductor muscle, and then a herniated disc.  It remains to be seen if Haniger can recapture his 2018 All-Star form when he does get back onto the field, though if he plays well and stays healthy, Divish figures Haniger might still hold some trade value, considering that he is under arbitration control through the 2022 season.  Since Trammell and Rodriguez aren’t likely to be in the majors until at least 2022, there is also a case for the M’s to keep Haniger, especially if he remains a productive player and if the Mariners start to become regular contenders.
  • The Mariners’ 2018-19 offseason was marked by several major trades, including a notable deal that saw Seattle land J.P. Crawford and (the soon-to-be-flipped) Carlos Santana from the Phillies in exchange for Jean Segura, James Pazos, and Juan Nicasio.  However, an earlier incarnation of that deal would have seen Segura and Edwin Diaz head to Philly, while Sixto Sanchez would have been part of the trade package coming back to the Mariners, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  It makes for an interesting what-if for Seattle fans, as moving Diaz in that trade would have altered several other future deals, most obviously the blockbuster swap with the Mets that brought Kelenic and Justin Dunn into the organization and sent Diaz and Robinson Cano to New York.  Rosenthal adds another interesting detail in noting that the Mariners kept trying to acquire Sanchez even after he had been dealt to the Marlins as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade with the Phils in February 2019.  Needless to say, it doesn’t seem like Sanchez is going anywhere for a long time considering how impressive the young righty has looked in his first Major League season.

Edwin Diaz Drawing Trade Interest

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As clubs throughout the league look to bolster their bullpens, the Mets have received calls on right-hander Edwin Diaz’s availability, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. However, the Mets have continually rebuffed offers to this point. ESPN’s Jeff Passan further reports that Diaz could be had, but teams have been making weak offers in an attempt to buy low. Both Martino and Passan indicate that the Mets are loath to sell low on an arm of Diaz’s caliber — particularly given the extraordinary price they paid to acquire him from the Mariners.

The 26-year-old Diaz is sitting on an impressive 2.77 ERA through 13 innings and has struck out a ridiculous 28 of the 60 batters he’s faced in 2020. However, Diaz has also walked eight batters, hit another and served up a pair of homers in that small sample of work. Add in last year’s ghastly season — 5.59 ERA in 58 frames — and it’s not surprising to see clubs hoping to get a deal on the flamethrowing righty.

In Diaz’s three full seasons with the Mariners, he pitched to a collective 2.64 ERA with a 2.56 FIP, 14.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9. Along the way, he racked up 109 saves and gave the M’s 191 innings out of the ’pen. While he’s still missing bats at an elite rate — his 16.1 K/9 as a Met is actually an improvement over his Mariners rate — Diaz has seen his walk rate increase and his HR/9 mark soar to 2.15. He’s blown 10 saves in 71 innings as a Met after blowing just 12 in 191 frames with Seattle.

Even with Diaz’s questionable control thus far in 2020, though, the early results do have the makings of a bounceback effort. His 98.3 mph average fastball is stronger than ever, and Diaz’s 21.5 percent swinging-strike rate is not only a personal best but would be the third-best mark of any reliever in a single season over the past decade. With that context, just as it’s easy to see why clubs would try to low-ball the Mets, it’s easy to see why the Mets don’t feel inclined to take a mediocre return.

Diaz’s 2020 salary clocks in at $5.1MM — prorated to $1.84MM — and he’s still controlled for another two seasons beyond the current campaign. His outrageous strikeout totals will only further drive up his arbitration price, as will any saves he accrues, although he’s only picked up two of those so far in the current season.

Quick Hits: Mets, E. Rodriguez, Tigers

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The Mets are off to a slow start at 3-4, and high-profile reliever Edwin Diaz hasn’t helped matters. Diaz, whom the Mets hoped would rebound this year after a subpar first season with the team in 2019, has allowed an earned run in two of three appearances this year. He struggled Thursday in a loss to the Red Sox, allowing four of five hitters to reach base. Afterward, manager Luis Rojas told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters that Mets bigwigs will discuss whether to use Diaz in high-leverage situations going forward. Considering Diaz has only thrown 2 1/3 innings this season, it’s far too soon to say he won’t bounce back. Nevertheless, it’s stunning to see how far he has fallen off since a tremendous run with the Mariners from 2016-18. The Mets’ decision to trade for Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano continues to look worse and worse.

  • Infielder Jed Lowrie joined the Mets in the same offseason as Diaz and Cano, but he has barely played for the club. Now in the second season of a two-year, $20MM contract, various injuries have limited Lowrie to nine games and eight plate appearances as a Met. He hasn’t played yet this season, and the reason became somewhat more clear Thursday. It turns out that Lowrie is dealing with PCL laxity in his left knee, according to general manager Brodie Van Wagenen. It’s still unknown if Lowrie will play for the Mets this season, however.
  • Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has been out this season because of coronavirus complications, but chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told Greg Hill of WEEI on Thursday (h/t: Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com) that they believe he will pitch this year. “We do expect to get him back,” Bloom said. “I couldn’t tell you exactly when. Obviously, we’re fortunate in that the complication that he had was very mild in terms of the severity of it.” Rodriguez went on the injured list July 7 after testing positive for the virus and has been dealing with a heart issue related to the illness lately. If healthy, he’ll unquestionably be the No. 1 starter in a Boston staff that’s rife with problems.
  • The Tigers are placing oufielder Cameron Maybin on the injured list because of a strained quad, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com relays. Maybin suffered the injury Thursday, just the sixth game since the once-touted Tigers prospect returned to Detroit for a third stint. The club signed Maybin to a one-year, $1.5MM deal in free agency.

Rebound Candidate: Edwin Diaz

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If the Mets are going to maximize their potential and break their three-year playoff drought in 2020, odds are they’ll need a bounce-back effort from right-handed reliever Edwin Diaz. It’s still tough to believe how little the Mets got last year from Diaz, whom they acquired in December 2018 in what now looks like a regrettable blockbuster with the Mariners.

Diaz concluded his three-season Seattle tenure in epic fashion prior to the trade, turning in one of the greatest years a reliever has ever recorded. He collected 57 saves on 61 tries and logged a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with 15.22 K/9 and 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings en route to AL Reliever of the Year honors. The Mets surely expected Diaz to compete for the NL version of that award last season. No dice.

Diaz wound up ranking among the majors’ worst at preventing runs in his first year with the Mets, as he finished seventh last out of 158 qualified relievers in ERA (5.59) and well below average in FIP (4.51). The .377 batting average on balls in play hitters registered against Diaz had a hand in his sudden ineffectiveness, though he can’t simply be let off the hook for that. After all, someone who was so dominant just the year before (and very good in the prior two seasons) could no longer seem to keep meaningful contact at bay.

Thanks in part to noticeable decreases in groundball percentage and infield fly rate, Diaz’s hard contact jumped by 18.8 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. He ended up in the league’s second percentile in hard-hit percentage and its 11th percentile in average exit velocity against, per Statcast. His slider – a pitch that embarrassed hitters before – was battered to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average, helping lead to a whopping 16 percent increase in home runs. Many pitchers gave up more HRs than usual during a power-happy 2019, but most didn’t so to that extent.

Despite all of that, the 26-year-old Diaz shouldn’t be counted out just yet. He did show some positive signs last season, believe it or not. Diaz lost nothing on his fastball, a pitch that has averaged 97.3 mph in each of his major league seasons. His strikeouts and swinging strikes dropped from his dream ’18 effort, while his walk rate rose, but he was still far above average in the first two categories and passable in the third. In fact, his strikeout rate (39 percent; 15.38 per nine) ranked in the league’s 99th percentile, and he finished fifth among relievers in swinging strikes (18 percent). And it seems Diaz did deserve better when he threw his slider, evidenced by a .272 expected wOBA against the pitch.

None of this is to say Diaz will ever return to his absolute best form, but he does still seem to have what it takes to succeed in the bigs. Even if he does, the Diaz/Robinson Cano trade (the latter has also struggled so far) probably won’t go down as a positive for the Mets. But if Diaz can help stabilize the back end of New York’s bullpen and aid in a return to the playoffs, that would ease the pain to some degree.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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GM Meetings Notes: Mets, White Sox, Red Sox

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The Mets have about $20MM to spend to stay under the luxury tax, and though they haven’t ruled out going over for a season, history suggests otherwise, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The rotation is largely set with Cy Young Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz locked into the top four spots. Despite the rumblings, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been adamant about Syndergaard staying put, and as for the fifth rotation spot, relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are very real candidates. Free agent upgrades are more likely to bolster the bullpen, which is already a man down if Lugo or Gsellman jump to the rotation. Of course, the best upgrade they could hope for would come in the form of a bounceback season from closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz is putting in extra work this winter in Puerto Rico, and for what it’s worth, new manager and fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltran “considers mentoring Diaz one of his top priorities.” Here are some more notes coming out of the GM meetings…

  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.
  • The Red Sox are facing a different kind of offseason under the leadership of Chaim Bloom, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Scaling back the payroll is objective A, and the Red Sox are active in trade discussions around just about everyone on the roster. The media has Mookie Betts as the fulcrum of Boston’s trade activity, but he’s expensive on a one-year deal and unlikely to sign an extension, mitigating any trade return and making a deal unlikely. It’s more likely the Red Sox find their desired breathing room by trading from their rotation: David Price, Chris Sale, and/or Nathan Eovaldi. Meanwhile, discussions with free agents are largely on the backburner as they look for creative ways to free up space in the payroll.

Van Wagenen: Syndergaard, Diaz Will Not Be Traded In Offseason

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An offseason free of trade rumors swirling around right-hander Noah Syndergaard will almost feel strange at this point, but Mets general manager Brodie Van Wageen said in a conference call to address today’s dismissal of manager Mickey Callaway that the team will not trade Syndergaard or embattled closer Edwin Diaz this winter (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Tim Britton):

“Edwin Diaz is going to be on this team next year. Noah Syndergaard is going to be on this team next year,” said Van Wagenen. Notably, that was an unprompted assertion from the GM, who is entering his second offseason at the post.

Syndergaard has been a fixture on the rumor circuit for the better part of two seasons, as teams have persistently inquired about the right-hander’s availability amid postseason misses and uncertain offseason approaches. While most expected the Mets to take a seller’s approach at the 2019 trade deadline, though, Van Wagenen & Co. loaded up for the 2020 season with a surprise acquisition of Marcus Stroman. Today’s comments not only emphatically double down on the fact that the Mets view themselves as contenders but also preemptively put to bed any speculation about moving Syndergaard for MLB-ready help in other areas.

As for Diaz, the once-dominant Mariners closer looked like a potential change-of-scenery candidate after the 2019 season proved to be an unmitigated disaster. The 25-year-old’s strikeout percentage dropped from 44.3 percent in 2018 to 39 percent in 2019 as his walk percentage jumped from 6.1 to 8.7. But Diaz’s true downfall was his alarming susceptibility to the long ball. After allowing an average of just 0.61 homers per nine innings pitched with Seattle in 2018, Diaz’s HR/9 rate soared to an untenable 2.33 with the Mets in 2019. The flamethrowing righty maintained his velocity, but the uptick in walks and home runs serve as clear indicators of trouble locating the ball.

The bottom-line results — a 5.59 ERA, seven blown saves and an eventual removal from the closer’s role — were about as poor an outcome as one could’ve forecast following the trade that brought Diaz to Queens. However, it seems there’s no thought to parting ways a la Sonny Gray and the Yankees, as the Mets remain confident they can get Diaz back on track. He does have three remaining seasons of club control, so the upside with Diaz is enormous if he can right the ship. Syndergaard, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2021 season.

With both Syndergaard and Diaz seemingly written in ink on next season’s roster, the question for the Mets will become one of who’ll slot in alongside them. Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Stroman will join Syndergaard in the rotation, but with Zack Wheeler hitting free agency, the Mets will need to add a fifth starter (plus some depth to stash in the upper minors). That’s especially true given that Anthony Kay, perhaps the organization’s most MLB-ready rotation prospect, was sent to the Blue Jays as part of the trade to acquire Stroman.

In the bullpen, Jeurys Familia had a similarly disappointing year to the one through which Diaz struggled. Robert Gsellman had his own struggles before going down with a partially torn lat that ended his season. That trio will return alongside righty Seth Lugo and lefty Justin Wilson, both of whom pitched well, but the Mets will surely be in the market for some bullpen reinforcements once again.

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