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Reactions To And Effects Of The Jose Quintana Trade

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After a nearly silent All-Star break on the rumor front, the Cubs and White Sox stunned the baseball world by announcing a blockbuster deal that sent left-hander Jose Quintana from Chicago’s American League club to its National League team in exchange for minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. Over the past 24 hours, both teams have addressed the media, pundits from around the media have weighed in on the swap, and others have reported details on alternative talks that each team had leading up to the blockbuster move. Here’s a before-and-after, if you will, of how what might be the summer’s biggest trade transpired…

  • The Yankees, Brewers and Astros were all involved in varying levels of trade talks regarding Quintana before the Cubs ultimately acquired him, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Braves, too, were in on Quintana “until the end,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies were “never really in” on Quintana despite a potential need for some rotation upgrades with some of their younger arms sputtering lately.
  • The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. They also inquired on Justin Verlander, per Morosi (also via Twitter), though he notes that, similarly, talks between the two sides “never gained momentum.”
  • While many were stunned to see the Sox and Cubs line up on a trade — their first since 2006 — White Sox GM Rick Hahn scoffed at the notion that their shared city would serve as an impediment to trade talks, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “This notion that we wouldn’t do business with them because they’re in town — or somehow we would actually take an inferior baseball deal for non-baseball reasons because of emotion or a rivalry or something totally unrelated to putting the best possible team on the field for the next several years — is laughable,” said Hahn. The South Side GM went on to laud Jimenez’s upside, calling him a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power potential and the ability to hit to all fields. Hahn adds that yesterday’s package was “far and away the best offer, the best possibility, that we’ve discussed with any club since we’ve started this process roughly a year or ago or so.”
  • The Cubs believed that they were out of the running to acquire Quintana after talking to Hahn in June, president of baseball operations told reporters (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times). Hahn, though, re-engaged with Epstein on Sunday night, and the two talked over the next few days, including a conversation that included Hahn ducking behind an exhibit at All-Star FanFest in Miami to avoid being seen (per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, on Twitter). Ultimately, it became clear that the Cubs would have to part with two of their very best prospects to get the deal done. “This deal had zero-percent chance of happening without both Eloy and Cease in it,” said Epstein. The Cubs president went on to say that they’ve been trying to acquire a pitcher like Quintana for “a long time” and added that his analytics and scouting teams “[dug] deep” to determine whether there were any changes that led to Quintana’s slow start t the season. “Our assessment on both fronts was that he is the same guy, and our staff felt that way with conviction,” Epstein said.
  • Also via Wittenmyer’s column, Epstein said that the team isn’t necessarily done yet, though their play in the next two weeks will dictate what other moves are or aren’t made. “We need to play well coming out of the gates here, and we’ll assess what we’re trying to do in large part based on how we play and where we are in the standings, and how realistic we think a World Series run is this year,” Epstein said. “Everything is still on the table for this year.”
  • ESPN’s Keith Law opines (Insider subscription required and recommended) that both clubs did well in the trade. The Cubs picked up a durable arm that has a near-ace-level track record over the past three years whose raw stuff “didn’t really waver” even through his struggles earlier this season. Quintana can help offset the loss of right-hander Jake Arrieta after the season, joining Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation for the next several years. His contract is also affordable enough that the team can comfortably pursue rotation help on the free-agent market this winter. Law projects Jimenez as a middle-of-the-order bat and suggests that he alone could’ve been an acceptable return, though the inclusion of Cease sweetens the deal. Cease has questions about his command as well as his durability and may end up in the ’pen, though his velocity and pair of potentially above-average secondary offerings make him a nice upside play. Law notes that he’s been leapfrogged by a pair of pitching prospects on the Cubs’ organizational rankings, which might’ve made him easier to deal.
  • Both Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network opine that it’s ridiculous that this is just the second trade these two teams have made this decade and offer praise for Hahn and Epstein for their pragmatic approach to dealing with one another. Teams are making more rational and data-driven decisions than ever before, Rosenthal notes, ultimately surmising that that trend should also include a willingness to deal within the same city and within the same division.
  • Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes that Quintana’s contract was every bit as important to the Cubs as Quintana himself. With significant arbitration raises looming for players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Carl Edwards Jr. and others looming in the next two years, the team’s enviable young core is going to rapidly become considerably more expensive. Shedding money from aging veterans like Arrieta, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist will obviously free up some cash, but Quintana’s contract meets an important nexus of future payroll flexibility, remaining under the luxury tax and improving the near- and long-term roster.

Cubs Acquire Jose Quintana

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In a stunning development, the Cubs have acquired lefty Jose Quintana from the crosstown rival White Sox, per club announcements. Top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease are going in return, with first baseman Matt Rose and infielder Bryant Flete also included in the package.

On its face, the deal is rather a straightforward one: The defending champion Cubs needed starting pitching, with a controllable arm making obvious sense. And the White Sox have marketed Quintana since last fall, holding out for a big prospect return.

Jose Quintana | MLBTR Photoshop

But that hardly accounts for the true drama inherent in this transaction. There has been chatter of late as to whether the two Chicago stalwarts would do business with each other; clearly, any such questions have been answered.

The scuffling Cubs have said the main focus is on internal improvements, but have now acted forcefully in advance of the deadline. As for the White Sox, they now possess a bevy of elite prospects after swinging yet another significant trade. And those wondering about Quintana’s trade value now have their answer as well.

This time last year, the Cubs were lining up another deal that sent out an elite prospect (Gleyber Torres, in the Aroldis Chapman deal) in hopes of spurring a World Series run. This time, though, the piece coming back isn’t a rental. Quintana is just 28 years old and will remain under the Cubs’ control through 2020. His extension includes a $8.85MM guarantee for 2018 and successive options ($10.5MM and $11MM, respectively) for the ensuing two years. In addition to bolstering the Cubs’ staff now, Quintana will also help cover the organization as starters Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, and Brett Anderson reach free agency after the season.

Quintana has not been quite at his best in 2017, with a 4.49 ERA over 104 1/3 innings thus far. But most indicators suggest he has mostly been his usual self, and his recent good form helps support that view. Quintana owns a 15.5% K%-BB% mark on the year, just as he has in recent years while consistently posting low-3 ERAs. And he has racked up 45 strikeouts with a 2.70 ERA over his last forty innings.

The deeper history is yet more promising, of course. Since landing with the South Siders as an utterly unheralded free agent, he has done nothing but produce results. Quintana carried a 3.41 lifetime ERA entering the 2017 season and has not missed a start over the past five seasons. With the contract control baked in, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs just ranked Quintana the 42nd most valuable trade asset in the game.

Eloy Jimenez | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Understandably, then, the Cubs paid a hefty price to draw the southpaw up town. Jimenez, clearly, is the headliner. A consensus top-ten prospect leaguewide, the twenty-year-old corner outfielder is viewed as a future middle-of-the-order bat. He has impressed thus far in his first attempt at the High-A level, posting a .271/.351/.490 batting line with eight home runs over 174 plate appearances.

The package doesn’t end there, though. Cease is also generally valued as one of the game’s hundred best pre-MLB players, making him arguably the Cubs’ second-best overall prospect and most promising young hurler. While he’s seen as something of a risky asset, given his injury history and relative lack of polish, Cease is tabbed with top-line upside. He carries a 2.79 ERA with 12.9 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 at the Class A level.

Rose and Flete aren’t without their interest, either, though neither registers as a significant prospect at this stage. The former is a corner infielder who has slashed .227/.281/.481 with 14 long balls through 254 plate appearances this year as a teammate of Jimenez at Myrtle Beach. The 24-year-old Flete has also played there, putting up the best season (.305/.355/.425) thus far in his minors career while playing all over the diamond (including at shortstop).

The move leaves quite a few other teams still looking for controllable starters, with one key asset now off the market. Sonny Gray of the Athletics is perhaps the clearest alternative trade candidate, while quality arms such as Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, and Chris Archer do not appear to be as readily available. Organizations such as the Yankees, Brewers, Twins, and Astros will be looking hard at those and other possibilities over the next two-and-a-half weeks. Today’s big intra-city swap sets an important market marker for those talks.

Outfield Rumors: Beltran, White Sox, Eloy, Reddick

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Here’s the latest on two veteran outfielders who have been prominently mentioned in trade rumors and one young outfield prospect who (to date) isn’t yet a trade chip…

  • Even if the Yankees did decide to shop Carlos Beltran, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the relatively deep outfield trade market could result in Beltran staying in the Bronx.  NL teams may pass on Beltran due to his defensive shortcomings and the fact that he couldn’t be used as a DH in the senior circuit.  Failing to find a deal for Beltran wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for the Yankees, as they could still issue a qualifying offer to Beltran this winter and get draft compensation back if he left in free agency.
  • One team that could be a fit for Beltran is the White Sox, as George A. King III of the New York Post notes how little production Chicago has received from its DH spot this season.  The Sox recently signed Justin Morneau and the former AL MVP could make his season debut as soon as Friday, though Morneau is also coming off elbow surgery and hasn’t shown much at the plate in Triple-A rehab games (albeit in a very small sample size).  In my opinion, the White Sox could make a move for the Yankees slugger even if Morneau does produce, as Beltran would provide a significant right field upgrade over Avisail Garcia’s sub-replacement level numbers.
  • Cubs outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez is getting trade attention but the Cubs aren’t eager to part with the talented 19-year-old, CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan tweets.  Jimenez signed with the Cubs during their spending spree in the 2013-14 international signing market, inking a deal with a hefty $2.8MM bonus that reflected his status as the most well-regarded prospect of that 2013-14 class.  Jimenez is enjoying a breakout year at A-level ball, hitting .332/.372/.527 with 10 homers over 336 plate appearances.  He also was one of the stars of today’s MLB Futures Game, going 2-for-3 with a homer and a spectacular catch in the outfield.  Despite Jimenez’s promise, the Cubs’ minor league depth meant that he ranked only ninth (Baseball America) and 10th (MLB.com) in preseason rankings of the top 10 prospects in Chicago’s system.  The Cubs have such depth that they could explore moving Jimenez or other top prospects in midseason trades and still have one of the game’s best farm systems.
  • If Josh Reddick was indeed willing to accept a four-year extension in the $50-$52MM range from the A’s, Nico of the Athletics Nation blog feels the club should absolutely make that deal.  Though there are some questions about Reddick’s long-term viability, the length and relative inexpensiveness of that proposed contract (not to mention Reddick’s role as a leader in the Oakland clubhouse) should ensure that Reddick still has value even if his skills do slightly diminish.

Cubs Sign Eloy Jimenez

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The Cubs announced the signing of Eloy Jimenez, who was rated as the top international prospect in this year's July 2nd class  by both Baseball America and MLB.com.  The two sides first reached agreement on a deal on July 3rd and formalized things nearly a month later.

The deal is worth $2.8MM bonus as well as a $250K college scholarship, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.  That's a signficant payday for a 16-year-old, but he actually turned down an even more lucrative offer to sign with the Cubs (Twitter link).  The Cubs got a lot done on the international market, signing Jimenez, Gleyber Torres ($1.7MM), Jen-Ho Tseng ($1.625MM), Jefferson Mejia ($850K), and Erling Moreno ($800K). In total, the Cubs spent $7.895MM on int'l free agents.

As Steve Adams explained in his analysis of the Cubs' international expenditures, the Cubs have gone far over their alotted bonus pool.  The Cubs will likely face the maximum penalties for international spending next summer, which means that they won't be able to give any player more than $250K in 2014=15.  They'll also have to pay a 100% tax on the overage.

The outfielder is 6'4" and 200 pounds, and Baseball America's Ben Badler says that his average raw power and flat swing produce line drives — a combination that could lead to above-average home run power in the future. MLB.com raved about Jimenez in their Top 30:

"Considered the crown jewel of the Class of 2013, Jimenez has one of the best baseball bodies available this year and is considered to be the total package. The teenager has impressed scouts with his intelligence, plus-speed, and gap-to-gap power that is expected to improve as he grows into his body."

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Analyzing The Cubs’ International Expenditures

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The Cubs have been extremely active on the international free agent market in the past two days, signing Gleyber Torres ($1.7MM), Jefferson Mejia ($850K), Erling Moreno ($650K), Johan Matos ($270K) and reaching agreement with Eloy Jimenez ($2.8MM). If those figures are accurate, the Cubs have $6.27MM in international expenditure.

As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted yesterday (Twitter link), the Cubs began the international free agency period with a bonus pool of $4,557,200. They acquired an additional $388,100 in the Scott Feldman trade with the Orioles and $784,700 from the Astros in the Ronald Torreyes trade before sending $209,700 to the Dodgers in the Carlos Marmol swap. All told, they gained an additional $963K in bonus space.

That total brought their bonus pool to $5,520,300 — which is a significant ways short of the $6.27MM they've spent following the Jimenez signing.That would mean the Cubs are over their allotted bonus pool by $749,700 — an overage of 13.6 percent. Baseball America's Ben Badler reported back in April that the penalty for exceeding a bonus pool by 10-15 percent would be a 100 percent tax on the overage as well as the inability to sign a player for more than $500K in next year's signing period.  The penalty for exceeding the pool by 15% or more is a 100 percent tax on the overage and a $250K per player limit next year.

If the reported signing bonuses aren't 100 percent accurate, the Cubs could be less than 10 percent over. However, barring a significant inaccuracy, they would still fall into the 5-10 percent overage bracket, which would prevent them from signing a player for more than $500K in 2014-15 but require only a 75 percent overage tax.

The other thing to consider is that the Jimenez deal isn't official as of yet. It could be possible for the Cubs to acquire additional bonus money in trades, as they haven't technically spent the $2.8MM on Jimenez.

Per the new CBA, teams are allowed to acquire up to 50 percent of their initial bonus pool. That would be a total of $2,278,600 for the Cubs, meaning they can still acquire an additional $1,315,600. That would be enough to cover the remaining difference and keep the Cubs from incurring limitations on next year's spending.

Reactions To The Feldman-Arrieta Trade

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Earlier today, the Orioles acquired Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger from the Cubs in exchange for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop and two international bonus slots. Here are some reactions and related news to the first significant trade of this year's trading season…

  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports that Arrieta has two year and 99 days of service time, meaning that the Cubs can avoid Super Two status if he accumulates less than 53 days of service time this season (Twitter link). If Arrieta picks up fewer than 73 days of service time, he will be controllable through the 2017 season.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs provides an excellent, in-depth analysis of the trade, noting that Feldman should net the Orioles an extra 1.0-1.5 wins above replacement, which is a critical upgrade over their internal rotation options. From the Cubs' point of view, Arrieta is a nice gamble, but the deal is really about the long-term future, Cameron writes. He agrees with the assessment of Baseball America's Ben Badler that the Cubs are clearly stockpiling international money to add top international prospect Eloy Jimenez after signing Gleyber Torres earlier today.
  • Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio that he didn't want to trade prospects whose capabilities are unknown at this point. The O's parted with Arrieta and Strop because they believe they know what those arms are capable of (Twitter link).
  • The Padres tried to acquire Arrieta, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but it sounds like the Cubs fully intend on hanging onto him rather than including him in other deals.
  • The Red Sox weren't in on Feldman, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.co (on Twitter). Feldman could have appealed to Boston had the rotation faded as the trade deadline drew nearer, but they weren't interested at this time.
  • Cubs closer Kevin Gregg told MLB.com's Carrie Muskat that he couldn't believe the Cubs were able to acquire both Arrieta and Strop in the trade. Gregg offered high praise for the talent of both players, noting that a change of scenery could help Strop. Manager Dale Sveum expressed excitement to Muskat about acquiring a power arm like Strop that was part of baseball's best bullpen in 2012.

July 2 Notes: Rankings, Twins, Trading Bonus Money

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We're a day away from the kickoff of this year's international free agency period. Starting tomorrow, teams will be able to sign amateur free agents, many of whom will be just 16 years of age. Baseball America's Ben Badler reported each team's bonus pool back in April. The Astros ($4.93MM) have the most to spend while the Nationals ($1.85MM) have the least. Here's more on what to expect in this year's signing period…

  • Badler provides his list of Top 30 international prospects to the public for free, though subscribers can access full scouting reports on each of his Top 30. Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez tops Badler's list.
  • Jimenez also heads the Top 30 list compiled by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, though the two sets of rankings are quite different otherwise. For example, Mayo's No. 4 prospect — Dominican outfielder Wasner Peguero – does not appear on Badler's list at all.
  • Mayo's colleague at MLB.com, Jesse Sanchez, provides an in-depth profile of Jimenez. The 16-year-old tells Sanchez that he wants to be like his idol, Roberto Clemente. Sanchez writes that scouts praise Jimenez's speed, gap-to-gap power (which is expected to grow), quick hands and baseball intelligence. He's expected to end up in a corner outfield position. Jimenez tells Sanchez that July 2 is a day on which "dreams come true."
  • Sanchez also notes (Twitter link) that there's more to signing international free agents than just money. One current top prospect is deciding between two teams based on their GMs and how they have treated past international signees.
  • The Twins are expected to sign Dominican outfielder Lewin Diaz, writes LaVelle E. Neal of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Minnesota is also very interested in Dominican right-hander Mayky Perez. They have interest in Italian infielder Marten Gasparini, but aren't likely to bid as highly as some other teams might. The Twins, for what it's worth, are the current record holders for largest bonus ever given to a European amateur. German outfielder Max Kepler received an $800K signing bonus in 2009.
  • In a subscription-only piece, Badler explains that general managers are having a hard time valuing bonus money in trades. The new CBA allows teams to exchange money from their international bonus pools, but the difficulty in trade talks is creating dilemmas for teams who have already given players or agents the impression that they will be able to commit a certain amount of money on July 2. Once a team uses all of its spending pool, it cannot trade for additional funds; trades must be completed prior to the exhaustion of a team's pool.

Quick Hits: Appel, Padres, Jimenez, 2014 Draft

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Despite reports over the weekend that the Astros and first overall pick Mark Appel have already agreed to terms on a below-slot contract, GM Jeff Luhnow today told reporters (including MLB.com's Brian McTaggart and Chris Abshire) that nothing is official and he has yet to meet with Appel or advisor Scott Boras.  "We're trying to move it as fast as we can," Luhnow said. "We wanted to give [Appel] the weekend to enjoy his commencement. We're optimistic we can move it pretty quickly."  Luhnow said he hoped that Appel would be signed by as soon as this week.

Here's the latest from around the majors…

  • Virtually all of the players recently extended by the Padres have struggled, so Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune said the team might look for future extension candidates to prove themselves more fully before signing them to multiyear deals.  Center also discusses several other Padres topics as part of the online chat with fans. 
  • Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez, favored to receive the largest bonus of the coming international signing period, is profiled by Baseball America's Ben Badler.  Jimenez, a 16-year-old with a 6'4", 200-pound frame, was reported to be a major target for the Cubs by Badler last month, and Chicago is still in "heavy pursuit" of the prospect.  Two of the several scouts and international directors who comment in Badler's piece cite Jermaine Dye as a comparable for Jimenez.
  • With the 2013 amateur draft just barely in the books, ESPN.com's Christopher Crawford (Insider subscription required) looks ahead to the 2014 draft, which could be headlined by two NC State products. 
  • FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi looks at ten players who have helped their trade value in recent weeks.  Three of those players (Jesse Crain, Yovani Gallardo and Bud Norris) have recently had their trade stock examined as part of MLBTR's Trade Candidate series.
  • In the video link atop that previous post, Morosi cites the Blue Jays, Padres and Phillies as being "right on the fence" as to whether or not they'll be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  If the three teams do decide to sell, plenty of arms will be available — Morosi lists Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Jonathan Papelbon and Cliff Lee as possible trade chips.
  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said he has no intention of releasing embattled reliever Carlos Marmol, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports.  Manager Dale Sveum said the same yesterday after Marmol allowed four ninth-inning runs in a 4-3 Cubs loss to the Mets.  Marmol has a 6.08 ERA in 26 2/3 IP this season.

Twins Notes: Jimenez, Wang, Draft

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Here are some Twins-related items, courtesy of 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson…

  • The Twins "are dealing…heavily" with Amauris Nina, a trainer/agent tied to several international prospects, most notably 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Elon Jimenez.  The Cubs are considered to be a "heavy favorite" to sign Jimenez once the international signing period begins on July 2.
  • The Twins didn't have any interest in right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, who signed with the Blue Jays earlier this week.
  • Club vice president Mike Radcliff said he expects the Twins will sign 27 or 28 of their 40 picks from this year's amateur draft.  He doesn't expect the club will sign 29th-round pick Logan Shore, a high school right-hander who is committed to the University of Florida.  Shore was ranked as the 202nd-best prospect in the draft by Baseball America, who speculated that Shore could've gone as high as the third round had he found a particularly interested suitor.
  • A Twins source tells Wolfson that "they fully expect" to sign fourth round pick Stephen Gonsalves.  The high school southpaw has committed to the University of San Diego and was ranked by MLB.com as the 98th-best member of this year's draft class.

Latest On July 2 Players

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The July 2nd international signing period is less than two months away.  Every team had a $2.9MM bonus pool for 2012-13, but as Baseball America's Ben Badler outlined here, the 2013-14 pools "will be tiered based on reverse order of 2012 major league winning percentage."  The Astros, Cubs, and Rockies each have at least $4.2MM to spend, plus teams can trade for additional money.  The Twins, Indians, Marlins, and Red Sox each have more than $3MM to spend, while the Royals and Blue Jays are close to that figure. Badler has the latest on ten prospects who are expected to sign for at least $1MM apiece.

  • The highest bonus is likely to go to Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez, potentially $2.6-2.8MM with the Cubs as the "heavy favorite."  The Cubs are also the frontrunners to sign one of the top Venezuelan players, shortstop Gleyber Torres.
  • Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers "might be the best hitter on the international market," writes Badler.  He's the primary target of the Red Sox.  Another contender for the best bat is third baseman Luis Encarnacion, who is most likely to sign with the Phillies.
  • The Yankees are the most likely suitor for Leonardo Molina, perhaps the best athlete in the class.  He can sign when he turns 16 on August 1st.  The Yankees' preliminary bonus pool is reportedly $1,877,900.
  • The biggest raw power belongs to Dominican outfielder Micker Zapata, who has been connected to the White Sox and Padres.
  • Badler's article has much more information, so be sure to give it a click and a read.

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