Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
The Astros missed the postseason for the first time in a decade, and now they'll enter the offseason in the unfamiliar position of underdogs in the AL West.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Correa, 3B: $92MM through 2028 (deal includes four vesting club options for 2029-32; Twins covering $10MM annually for next three seasons as part of trade)
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $80MM through 2029
- Yordan Alvarez, DH: $78MM through 2028
- Josh Hader, LHP: $57MM through 2028
- Cristian Javier, RHP: $42MM through 2027
- Christian Walker, 1B: $40MM through 2027
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $17MM through 2026
- Nate Pearson, RHP: $1.35MM through 2026 (arbitration eligible in 2027)
Option Decisions
- None
Total 2026 commitments: $155.85MM
Total future commitments: $407.35MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Mauricio Dubon (5.162): $5.8MM
- Steven Okert (5.089): $2MM
- Luis Garcia (5.083): $2.2MM
- Ramon Urias (5.025): $4.4MM
- Bryan Abreu (5.022): $5.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (5.015): $2.1MM
- Chas McCormick (4.161): $3.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (4.160): $9.3MM
- Jesus Sanchez (4.118): $6.5MM
- Jake Meyers (4.044): $3.5MM
- Jeremy Pena (4.000): $7.9MM
- Hunter Brown (3.035): $5.7MM
- Yainer Diaz (3.035): $4.5MM
- Hayden Wesneski (2.170): $1.5MM
- Bennett Sousa (2.156): $1.1MM
- Taylor Trammell (2.144): $900K
Non-Tender Candidates: Dubon, Garcia, Urias, De Los Santos, McCormick, Sanchez, Trammell
Free Agents
The Astros finished the season with an 87-75 record and missed out on the final AL Wild Card spot after losing the season series tiebreaker to the Tigers. As far as seasons that don't end in a postseason berth go, Houston's year certainly could've been worse. Yet there's plenty of work for GM Dana Brown and the rest of the front office to do this winter.
The elephant in the room is the impending departure of southpaw Framber Valdez. It's a safe bet that he will be pitching elsewhere come Opening Day, as Houston has rarely made a full-scale effort to retain their free agents over the years. Alex Bregman walked in free agency last winter, and Kyle Tucker was traded before his final year under team control so that he wouldn't do the same. Gerrit Cole previously left for New York after reaching free agency after the 2019 season. Justin Verlander and Carlos Correa both signed elsewhere on two separate occasions, though both did return to Houston in trades after their respective departures.
Jose Altuve is the only one of the club's stars they've managed to keep in town consistently, and comments from Brown haven't offered much reason to expect Valdez's free agency to reverse that trend. Brown said that he expected to have "some conversations" with Valdez's camp, but otherwise largely focused on the emergence of Hunter Brown as a legitimate ace and the club's other internal options when asked about the possibility of a reunion. Valdez is sure to be well outside the club's typical comfort zone even as he enters free agency marketing his age-32 season, and Brown has suggested that the club could look to the trade market in any efforts to bolster its rotation.
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Pirates To Hire Bill Murphy As Pitching Coach
The Pirates are expected to hire Astros pitching coach Bill Murphy for the same position, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Pittsburgh had a vacancy after former pitching coach Oscar Marin did not have his contract renewed. Assistant pitching coach Brent Strom is also not returning to the team.
Murphy has been a coach in Houston’s organization since 2016. He was first hired as a pitching coach for Rookie-level Greeneville. Murphy moved up to Single-A Tri-City in 2017, then to Double-A Corpus Christi the following season. He became an assistant pitching coach with the big league club in 2021, coincidentally working underneath Strom (then Houston’s pitching coach) in his first season. Strom stepped down at the end of that year, so Houston elevated Murphy and Josh Miller to co-pitching coach positions.
Houston’s pitching staff hadn’t missed a beat after Strom’s departure. They lead MLB with a 3.61 earned run average over the past four seasons. Only the Braves have a higher strikeout rate over that stretch. They dropped to 11th in ERA this year but led MLB with a 24.9% strikeout percentage. No team got more swinging strikes.
The Astros already had an excellent pitching staff by the time that Murphy and Miller took the lead positions. Hunter Brown’s emergence as an ace has come under their tutelage, however. The Astros navigated various injuries on the pitching staff over the past few years, with the likes of J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and Jason Alexander each turning in a solid or better season in that time.
Murphy gets to work with an arguably even more talented group of arms in Pittsburgh. Paul Skenes is one of the few pitchers in baseball who is better than Brown. Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows might all be in the Opening Day rotation, while Jared Jones could be back from elbow surgery in the second half. Mitch Keller has tailed off late after stellar first halves in three straight years. He’s unlikely to turn into an ace at age 30, but it’d be a boon for the Bucs if they can get him to sustain his #2/3 caliber production for an entire season.
The Astros will now need to decide whether to turn the full-time job to Miller or hire a new co-pitching coach. They’re already revamping their offensive instruction after moving on from co-hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker.
MLBTR Podcast: The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Blue Jays making it to the World Series and how being a baseball writer can dull your fandom (1:20)
- The Phillies reportedly planning to move on from Nick Castellanos (7:10)
- The Tigers making an uninspiring extension offer to Tarik Skubal a year ago (15:30)
- The Giants potentially hiring Tony Vitello to be their new manager (27:50)
- The Brewers reportedly willing to listen to offers on Freddy Peralta (35:20)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What positions do the Astros need to target to make it back to the postseason? (41:55)
- Do the Brewers need to change their contact-over-power approach? (45:20)
- Will Kyle Tucker‘s injuries significantly impact his payday? (47:10)
- Should the Padres try to sign J.T. Realmuto or stick with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano? (49:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
- Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here
- Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Astros Sign Nate Pearson
October 21: Houston officially announced their one-year deal with Pearson on Tuesday. According to The Associated Press, the deal includes $150K in incentives. He’d earn $50K for reaching 50 innings and $50K apiece at 20 and 25 starts.
October 17: The Astros are in agreement with right-hander Nate Pearson on a one-year, $1.35MM guarantee, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Pearson, a client of Excel Sports Management, is expected to work as a starter. The deal also includes performance bonuses.
Pearson will get the opportunity to pitch out of the rotation for the first time since his brief MLB debut in 2020. The hard-throwing righty made four starts as a rookie with Toronto. He’s made 118 appearances over the past five seasons, and all but two have been out of the bullpen. Pearson spent the last season and a half with the Cubs. He came to Chicago in 2024 via a midseason trade from Toronto.
Pearson made 11 appearances with the Cubs this past season. He broke camp with the team, but gave up 10 earned runs over his first 8 2/3 innings and soon found himself back at Triple-A. Pearson made it back up for a weekend in June, only to be hammered for five earned runs in his lone appearance. His final stint with the big-league club would be two solid outings in August, when he tossed four scoreless innings. In total, Pearson posted a 9.20 ERA across 14 2/3 MLB innings, including an untenable 7:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chicago released Pearson during the final week of the regular season.
A major-league agreement for Pearson might seem surprising given his recent output at the highest level, but his results were much better at Triple-A Iowa. Pearson recorded a 2.22 ERA with a stellar 30.6% K% across 38 minor-league outings. Free passes remained a problem (12.9% walk rate), but Triple-A batters hit just .170 against Pearson.
Houston is likely betting on pedigree here. Pearson was a first-round selection for Toronto back in 2017. His development was delayed by a broken arm and an oblique injury in 2018, but he broke through with a tremendous 2019 season in the minors. Pearson tossed 101 2/3 innings across three levels, notching a 2.30 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate over 25 starts. He entered the 2020 campaign as a top 10 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
Pearson made five appearances with the Blue Jays in the shortened 2020 season before an elbow injury cut his year short. Injuries would continue to derail him moving forward. A litany of health issues capped Pearson at 45 2/3 innings in 2021 and 30 2/3 frames in 2022. He stayed healthy for 2023 and 2024, working exclusively as a reliever with the Blue Jays before being dealt to Chicago.
Houston has some uncertainty in the rotation heading into 2026. Framber Valdez is a free agent. The club lost Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, and Brandon Walter to Tommy John surgery. Spencer Arrighetti‘s season ended prematurely due to elbow concerns. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. were healthy to close the season, but have dealt with injuries of their own. Jason Alexander went from depth option to rotation mainstay after getting scooped up as a waiver claim. Hunter Brown is the only rock-solid member of the staff at the moment. Pearson comes with plenty of his own question marks, but the risk is minimal. He could return to a bullpen role if starting doesn’t work out.
Image courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images.
Martin Maldonado Announces Retirement
After 15 Major League seasons, Martin Maldonado is retiring from baseball. The 39-year-old catcher made the official announcement today via his Instagram page, thanking his family, the fans, teammates, coaches, and many others who helped him live his dream.
“Baseball, I was just four years old when I fell in love with you,” Maldonado said in his statement. “From the moment I first put on that catcher’s gear, I knew this game would be part of me forever. Every inning, every pitch, every moment behind the plate has been a blessing. For 34 years, I’ve had the honor of wearing that gear — and for the last 15, doing it at the highest level. Today, it’s time to hang them up and officially call it a career.”
The epitome of a glove-first catcher, Maldonado will retire with a career .203/.277/.343 slash line and 119 home runs over 4028 plate appearances and 1230 games in the majors. Despite the modest offensive output, Maldonado carved out a long career due to his defense and game-calling ability. Maldonado was renowned for his ability to work with pitchers, whether it was young arms just arriving in the big leagues or veteran hurlers who were set in their routines.
This ability earned Maldonado regular work on one of baseball’s most successful teams of recent years, as he played with the Astros for parts of the 2018-23 seasons. Initially a deadline pickup for Houston in 2018, Maldonado left for a free agent deal with the Royals that winter, but was re-acquired again by the Astros at the 2019 trade deadline. The Astros then locked Maldonado up on a two-year contract that winter, with another extension in April 2021 that ultimately added two more years to Maldonado’s time in Houston once he played enough in 2021 to trigger a vesting option.
With plenty of pop elsewhere in the lineup, the Astros were happy to focus on defense in the catcher’s position, with such other backstops as Jason Castro, Garrett Stubbs, Christian Vazquez, and eventual heir apparent Yainer Diaz all sharing time with Maldonado behind the plate. Maldonado’s tenure in Houston was highlighted by a championship ring in 2022 when the Astros captured the World Series.
A 27th-round pick for the Angels way back in the 2004 draft, Maldonado didn’t make his MLB debut until he appeared in three games with the Brewers in 2011. That cup of coffee marked the first of six seasons for Maldonado in a Milwaukee uniform, acting as a complement to regular catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The Brewers dealt Maldonado to the Angels in December 2016, and the 2017 season saw Maldonado earn starting catcher duties and win the only Gold Glove of his career.
Maldonado went from the highs of the Astros’ perpetual contention to the low of playing with the 121-loss White Sox in 2024, though Maldonado was released by the Sox in July of that year as the team was moving on to younger options. He signed a minor league contract with the Padres last winter and hit .204/.245/.327 in 161 PA and 64 Major League games in what ended up being his final season in the Show. The Padres designated Maldonado for assignment and released him in August, but re-signed him to a minor league deal in September. Maldonado even got one more taste of the playoffs when the Padres activated him for backup duty in their Wild Card Series against the Cubs, though Maldonado didn’t play during the three-game series.
Maldonado’s defensive metrics tended to swing from year to year, yet at various points in his career, he was one of baseball’s best at framing pitchers, blocking pitches in the dirt, and throwing out baserunners. In the latter category, Maldonado tossed out 188 of 663 runners (28.36%) attempting to steal. Maldonado finishes his career as a +17 in Fielding Run Value and with +57 Defensive Runs Saved.
We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Maldonado on a fine career, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.
Astros Make Several Changes To Coaching Staff, Front Office
GM Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada are sticking around, but that doesn’t mean the Astros aren’t making big changes. The team is parting ways with hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, catching coach Michael Collins, head athletic trainer Jeremiah Randall, and assistant GM Andrew Ball, as relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Chandler Rome of The Athletic.
It’s no shock that the Astros are looking for new blood. They missed the playoffs this year for the first time since 2016, after a season marred by injuries and offensive inconsistency. McTaggart confirmed yesterday that both Brown and Espada would return in 2026, but it appears that Cintrón, Snitker, Collins, Randall, and Ball aren’t so lucky.
Cintrón first joined the Astros as an interpreter and soon became the first base coach. He and Snitker, previously a minor league hitting coach, took over as Houston’s co-hitting coaches in 2019, and they filled the role together for the next seven years. There is no question that they inherited a highly talented group, but all the same, Cintrón and Snitker deserve their fair share of credit for guiding an offense that led the AL in all three triple-slash categories from 2019-24. Unfortunately, the Astros finished with just a 100 wRC+ in 2025, indicating league-average levels of offensive production. The hitting coaches can’t be blamed for the departure of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman or injuries to Yordan Alvarez and Isaac Paredes, but nonetheless, it’s not surprising that the organization decided to head in a new direction.
Speaking of injuries, Alvarez and Paredes were far from the only Astros to miss significant time, and that likely explains why Randall is out of a job after 10 seasons as Houston’s head athletic trainer. According to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger, no team lost more value to the IL than the Astros in 2025. And while some of those injuries might have been unpredictable and unpreventable, the club dealt with some particular scrutiny for how it handled injuries to Alvarez and Jake Meyers.
Collins grew up playing cricket in Australia (per Leah Vann of Chron) before learning to play baseball and quickly generating interest from MLB scouts. After a long minor league career, he moved into minor league coaching and eventually joined the Astros as a bullpen catcher in 2018. He took over catching coach duties the following season.
Ball previously worked in the Rays and Angels front offices before he joined the Astros as an assistant GM prior to the 2022 season. He was part of the team that temporarily took over Houston’s front office the following winter in the interim period between the end of James Click’s time as GM and the beginning of Brown’s tenure. According to the Astros’ website, Ball’s duties included overseeing the team’s research & development and sports medicine & performance departments.
Astros To Retain Dana Brown, Joe Espada
Coming off their first non-playoff season since 2016, the Astros will hold off on any major organizational overhauls. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports that both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada will be back with the club in 2026, for Brown’s fourth season and Espada’s third season in their respective roles.
The news isn’t hugely surprising, as Brown said during the Astros’ end-of-season press conference last week that Espada would return, and the GM believed he would also remain in his position. There has been no indication that team owner Jim Crane is dissatisfied with the job performance of either man, whereas by comparison, there were rumors for months in 2022 that Crane was clashing with ex-GM James Click (Brown’s predecessor). Sure enough, the Astros parted ways with Click shortly after the 2022 season, despite the fact that Houston had just won the World Series.
Since winning that championship, the Astros’ win totals and finishes have gradually gone in reverse. Houston won 90 games and the AL West in 2023 but fell just short of another pennant, losing to the Rangers in a seven-game ALCS. In 2024, the Astros won 89 games and another division crown, but their streak of ALCS appearances was snapped when they were upset and swept by the Tigers in the wild card series.
This season saw the Astros win 87 games, the most of any club that didn’t reach the postseason. The Tigers were again their nemesis, also winning 87 games and edging out the Astros for the final AL wild card berth due to the tiebreaker advantage (Detroit had a 4-2 record against Houston this year). Even with the Tigers in full collapse mode for much of September, the Astros came undone in the final stretch, going 3-6 in their last nine games.
In this sense, Brown and Espada are somewhat victims of their own success — naturally, most teams would love to have a three-season run that included two division titles and 265 wins. For this season in particular, there was also a clear reason for the Astros’ relative struggles, as Houston was absolutely ravaged by injuries. Only four Astros players had more than 500 plate appearances, and Framber Valdez (192 IP) and Hunter Brown (185 1/3 IP) were the only hurlers to log more than 86 innings pitched. Within this context, Espada found himself garnering some buzz as a Manager Of The Year candidate before the bottom finally fell out on his injury-riddled club.
It isn’t hard to imagine that the Astros would’ve made the playoffs if their team had been even reasonably healthy. However, just counting on fewer injuries in 2026 might not be enough, plus the Astros have a big pair of potential holes to fill if Valdez or productive backup catcher Victor Caratini leave in free agency.
Going forward, Brown and Espada are both under contract through at least the 2026 season, though the specific terms of either man’s contract aren’t publicly known. If 2026 is the last year of their deals, Crane could explore at least a brief extension just to make sure that neither is a lame duck, or the owner might want to see if the Astros can firmly get things turned around before making a further commitment.
10 Players Elect Free Agency
Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents. Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.
To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back. These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.
We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion. These free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.
Catchers
- David Bañuelos (Orioles)
- Sandy León (Braves)
- Ali Sánchez (Red Sox)
Infielder
- Emmanuel Rivera (Orioles)
Outfielder
- Joshua Palacios (White Sox)
Pitchers
- Nabil Crismatt (Diamondbacks)
- Angel Perdomo (Athletics)
- Tayler Scott (Astros)
- Wander Suero (Mets)
- Bruce Zimmermann (Brewers)
14 Players Elect Free Agency
Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents. Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.
To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back. These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.
We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion. These free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.
Catchers
- Jason Delay (Braves)
- José Herrera (Diamondbacks)
Infielders
- Jacob Amaya (White Sox)
- Trenton Brooks (Padres)
- Zack Short (Astros)
Outfielder
- Sam Hilliard (Rockies)
Pitchers
- Luarbert Árias (Marlins)
- Luis Castillo (Orioles)
- Mike Clevinger (White Sox)
- Chris Devenski (Mets)
- Joe Jacques (Mariners)
- Tyson Miller (Cubs)
- José Quijada (Angels)
- Jake Woodford (Diamondbacks)
Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images
Astros’ Luis Garcia Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
The Astros announced to reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that right-hander Luis Garcia underwent elbow surgery on Wednesday. That surgery included a reconstruction of his ulnar collateral ligament, the procedure commonly known as Tommy John surgery. It will be his second Tommy John surgery in the past three years. The righty’s flexor tendon was also repaired this week.
Last month, the Astros announced that Garcia would be undergoing some sort of elbow procedure which would prevent him from pitching in 2026. They didn’t provide the details on that operation until today.
Today’s update is not surprising but provides some specificity on what’s ahead for Garcia. Elbow issues have been haunting him for several years now. He made just six starts in 2023 before requiring his first Tommy John surgery. He was expected to return to the club in 2024 but repeatedly hit setbacks and eventually missed that whole season.
More setbacks came in 2025 and he didn’t make it back to the big league club until September 1st. He made one good start, throwing six innings of three-run ball against the Angels. But in his second outing in Toronto, he called out the trainers in the second inning and ominously departed the game. He was placed on the 15-day injured list the next day due to elbow discomfort. Just a few days later, he was already on the 60-day IL. A few weeks later, the Astros already made it public that his 2026 was over.
Garcia just finished his second arbitration season. He can be retained for one more but there’s no reason for the Astros to tender him a contract since he’s going to miss the year. They could theoretically work out a two-year deal. It’s fairly common these days for a pitcher facing a lengthy injury absence to get a two-year pact. The player gets to bank some money while rehabbing. The team gets no return on the first year but is hoping for enough production in the second year to justify the entire investment.
Whether Garcia can secure that kind of expenditure remains to be seen. He has a strong track record, with a 3.60 earned run average in 359 2/3 big league innings, but there has to be a lot of doubt about his future. Even if he is healthy at some point in 2027, he’ll be coming off four effectively lost years.
A likely scenario is that Garcia is non-tendered or outrighted off the roster in the coming weeks. He could then try to find a two-year deal with the Astros or any other club. Astros fans will perhaps be familiar with José Urquidy‘s departure. He required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. The Astros outrighted him off the roster at season’s end and he became a free agent. He then signed with the Tigers, a one-year deal which paid him $1MM in 2025 with a $4MM club option for 2026. Garcia could try to follow that path but he should have less appeal to a signing club since his surgery is occurring later in the year and his health history is worse.
Photo courtesy of Erik Williams, Imagn Images