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Blue Jays Make Contract Offer To Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays’ interest in Anthony Santander is well-known, with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press even listing the Jays and Angels “as the frontrunners” to sign the All-Star outfielder in a report last week.  Toronto has formalized its pursuit of Santander by making an official contract offer, according to KPRC’s Ari Alexander, though the size and length of the offer isn’t known.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Santander ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the longtime Orioles outfielder for a four-year, $80MM deal.  Santander and his reps at the Beverly Hills Sports Council have been looking to top that number, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Santander is looking for a five-year contract worth at least $100MM.

Given how many other notable free agents have landed bigger deals than expected this winter, it isn’t surprising that Santander is aiming high, and he might have some leverage since so many other big bats have already signed elsewhere.  Beyond the Blue Jays and Angels, the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees have also been publicly linked to Santander, and it is possible another club or two might be lurking to see how his market develops.

One team that doesn’t appear to be in the running for Santander is Houston, as Alexander notes that the Astros are “very unlikely” to dole out the type of contract that would basically ensure that the team stays over the luxury tax threshold.  RosterResource’s current estimate of a $244MM tax number for the Astros already puts them over the $241MM threshold, and there has been speculation that Houston might look to move a contract in order to duck under the line and reset its tax status.  Because the Astros were tax payors in 2024, they also have to give up two 2025 draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money for signing any free agent that rejects a qualifying offer, and Houston already paid those extra penalties to sign Christian Walker.

Adding a powerful switch-hitter like Santander would cover multiple needs for the Jays, whose largely right-handed hitting lineup finished 26th in the majors last year in home runs.  Putting Santander behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (who contributed 30 of the Jays’ 156 homers in 2024) in the lineup would give Guerrero some valuable protection, and there’s a ready-made defensive position for Santander in left field.  Since the Blue Jays don’t have a set designated hitter, Santander could get a good chunk of at-bats from the DH spot, which also works since Santander’s outfield defense is average at best.

It has been a pretty quiet offseason for the Blue Jays, though not for lack of effort, as the team has been linked to almost every major free agent on the market.  Toronto made aggressive bids for both the top hitter (Juan Soto) and pitcher (Corbin Burnes) available, and reports indicated that the Jays may have outbid the Diamondbacks’ $210MM contract with Burnes, but the right-hander took less money in order to pitch closer to his home in Arizona.  For all of the Jays’ free agent dealings, their only noteworthy deal has been a two-year pact with old friend Yimi Garcia.  Toronto’s other big offseason move to date was a trade with the Guardians that brought second baseman Andres Gimenez and reliever Nick Sandlin into the fold, but Gimenez’s subpar hitting numbers over the last two seasons offers no promise that he’ll help the Blue Jays’ lackluster offense.

Signing Santander would at least quiet the narrative that the Jays are unable to land top free agents, even if the heat on GM Ross Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro won’t really let up unless the Blue Jays turn things around on the field in 2025.  Arguably no team in baseball faces as much short-term pressure as the Jays, since Guerrero and Bo Bichette are both free agents next winter and there isn’t any indication that the club is making any headway in extension talks.  Bringing in Santander on a long-term deal could be viewed as a move to lock a big bat into the lineup even if Guerrero does leave, similar to how the Gimenez trade could be interpreted as a move to shore up the shortstop position if Bichette departs.

Where Can Astros Turn For A Left-Handed Outfielder?

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After last month’s Kyle Tucker trade, the outfield is the biggest question for the Astros. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are lined up to start in center and right field, respectively. Meyers is a defensive stalwart without much offensive upside. McCormick has been a very good hitter in the past, but he’s coming off the worst season of his career.

Left field is completely open. While Yordan Alvarez could get a few starts there, the Astros want to use him mostly as a designated hitter. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell, who started one major league game last season, is Houston’s projected left fielder at RosterResource. Trammell is coming off a strong season in Triple-A, but he’s 27 years old and has a .167/.270/.368 batting line over 359 MLB plate appearances. If not Trammell, utility player Mauricio Dubón would probably get the majority of the playing time. Houston still expects to compete for an AL West title. They’ll need to add at least one outfielder before Opening Day.

General manager Dana Brown has acknowledged as much. Houston is looking for a left-handed hitter, in particular, potentially allowing them to spell McCormick or Meyers. The Astros project narrowly above the competitive balance tax threshold and don’t seem likely to make a play for Anthony Santander. If they’re dealing with a tighter budget, where could they look?

Free Agency

Jurickson Profar: Profar might be out of their financial comfort zone as well. As of last month, the switch-hitting left fielder was looking for a deal of at least three years. He’s the best non-Santander outfielder available in free agency. Profar has had an up-and-down career but is coming off by far his best season. He hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers behind massively improved exit velocities. He’ll turn 32 in February, but the Astros have made three-year free agent commitments to much older hitters (i.e. José Abreu and Christian Walker). Profar is an ideal fit on paper, but the money could be an issue.

Alex Verdugo: For most of his Red Sox tenure, Verdugo was a capable if mercurial everyday player. He hit .281/.338/.424 across four seasons in Boston. The Sox traded him to the Yankees, who stuck with him as their regular left fielder amidst the worst season of his career. Verdugo finished the year with a .233/.291/.356 slash across 621 plate appearances. Almost all the positives came in the first month of the season. Verdugo carried a .267/.358/.446 line into May. He hit .225/.275/.336 over his final 501 plate appearances. Verdugo doesn’t turn 29 until May, so he’s a plausible rebound candidate, but that’d be less risky for a fringe contender than it is for a true win-now team like Houston. He’s likely looking at a one-year pillow deal, probably for less than the $10MM that Max Kepler received from Philadelphia.

Jesse Winker: Outside of Profar, Winker probably has the best offensive profile of this group. He hit .258/.366/.422 with 13 homers in 404 plate appearances against righty pitching last season. He’s a career .276/.379/.462 hitter with the platoon advantage. Winker isn’t a huge threat against lefties, but he can hit right-handers. The big drawback is the defensive profile. He’s a poor defender in left field who should primarily be a designated hitter. The Astros would either need to have him divide left field work with Alvarez or play Winker there regularly if they want to keep their superstar DH off his feet. Maybe they feel the Crawford Boxes and limited left field to cover in Houston makes that worthwhile. Winker might be able to get two years but shouldn’t be all that expensive.

Jason Heyward: Heyward finished the 2024 season in Houston after being released by the Dodgers. He hit four homers in 24 regular season contests and started one of their Division Series games against the Tigers. While it was a fairly strong finish, Heyward had hit .208/.289/.393 across 197 plate appearances with Los Angeles. He’s at best a strong-side platoon option and might be a better fit for a bench role going into his age-35 season. He’d be available for one year and a base salary of a few million dollars.

David Peralta: Peralta has a similar profile to Heyward. He’s a former above-average regular who has settled into a platoon role in his late 30s. He’s coming off a nice season for the Padres, hitting .267/.335/.415 across 260 plate appearances. The Astros would probably prefer to bring Heyward back if they’re going this route, but Peralta had better numbers in 2024.

Trade Candidates

Jesús Sánchez: Outside of Sandy Alcántara and the dead money owed to released outfielder Avisaíl García, Sánchez projects as the highest-paid player on the Marlins. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary in his second of four trips through arbitration. That’s hardly exorbitant, but Miami has shown a willingness to move virtually anyone amidst their full rebuild. Sánchez is a former top prospect who has settled in as a low-end regular in the big leagues. He’s coming off a .252/.313/.417 showing with 18 homers and 16 stolen bases — his second straight league average offensive performance. He’s a roughly average defender in either corner. The 27-year-old may not have the upside that many prospect evaluators had hoped, but he’d be an upgrade over Trammell.

Mike Yastrzemski: The Giants seemed likely to deal one of their arbitration-eligible players at the start of the offseason. Yastrzemski, who agreed to a $9.25MM salary in his final year of club control, seemed the most logical candidate. San Francisco has been quiet since pulling off the Willy Adames deal, however, so they might not be looking to shed payroll to open additional free agent pursuits. Yastrzmeski is coming off a .231/.302/.437 showing with 18 homers through 474 trips to the plate.

Willi Castro: Castro is a switch-hitting utility player who has more than 800 innings of left field experience. He has had a solid two-year run in Minnesota, hitting .251/.334/.395 in 1044 plate appearances. Castro was a nice find for the Twins’ front office, who inked him to a minor league deal after he’d been non-tendered by the Tigers. He’s in his final winter of arbitration and projected for a $6.2MM salary. Minnesota highly values his versatility and clubhouse presence, so they’re probably not keen on moving him. Yet the Twins are working with an extremely tight budget and have done nothing in free agency. Trading Castro would be one way to open a bit of payroll space.

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There are a few other trade candidates if Houston wanted to take a bigger swing. Players like Wilyer Abreu, Jake McCarthy and Alec Burleson could be available. They’d require a stronger prospect return than any of Sánchez, Yastrzmeski or Castro, however. That seems unlikely considering the Astros dealt Tucker because they wanted to add talent to a very thin farm system without giving up on the upcoming season.

Multiple Teams Showing Interest In Kyle Hart

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The Astros, Brewers, Orioles, Twins, and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in free agent southpaw Kyle Hart, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo.  Earlier this month, FanSided’s Robert Murray indicated that a whopping 18 teams had at least checked in on Hart’s services as he looks to return to North American baseball after a tremendous year with the NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization.

Hart posted a 2.69 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and six percent walk rate over 157 innings and 26 starts with the Dinos, winning the Dong-won Choi Award (the KBO League’s answer to the Cy Young Award).  Hart’s best pitch is his slider, but according to Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Hart used that slider less as a primary offering and more as a chase pitch to put batters away.  Longenhagen isn’t sure how Hart’s arsenal of this plus slider but only a 90mph fastball and an okay changeup will translate back in the big leagues, and thus Hart is projected as a fifth or sixth starter even if Fangraphs ranked him 48th on their list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

A somewhat limited repertoire might be less of an issue if Hart is working out of the bullpen, of course, and Sammon and Woo note that some interested MLB teams have considered Hart as a multi-inning reliever.  Whether working as a starter, long reliever, or perhaps both in a swingman role, there’s plenty of upside if the 32-year-old Hart can carry over even some of his KBO success back to the big leagues.

It isn’t known if Hart is specifically looking for a starting opportunity in the majors or if he’s willing to take on any role, though the five teams cited as suitors would seem to slot him as a reliever or swingman, in lieu of future injuries or trades to the incumbent rotation.  The Twins and Yankees are particularly thin on left-handed bullpen options, which could make Hart particularly appealing to those clubs.

Hart’s previous Major League experience consists of just four appearances and 11 innings with the Red Sox in 2020, when he was hit hard for a 15.55 ERA over his few cups of coffee in the Show.  A 19th-round pick for Boston in the 2016 draft, Hart pitched pretty well in his first taste of Triple-A ball in 2019, but has since struggled at the top minor league level, with an overall 4.36 ERA to show for 334 2/3 career Triple-A frames.  Hart spent his entire career with the Red Sox before pitching with the Mariners’ and Phillies’ Triple-A affiliates in 2023, and then jumping to the Dinos.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Several teams don’t publicize contract details for their top front office executives or even for their managers, so this list of skipper and execs (any head of a baseball operations department, whether titled as a president of baseball ops, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) entering the final year of their deals may not be entirely complete or accurate.  Still, since MLBTR so often focuses on players entering their “contract year,” this post provides a rough outline of which notable team personnel may be feeling some extra pressure as their own deals may be close to expiring.

It is quite possible some of these names may have already quietly signed extensions weeks or months ago, or will sign new deals during Spring Training once clubs turn their attention away from offseason roster-building.  A shorter-term extension may not necessarily indicate much extra job security, as some teams tack an extra year (or at least a club option) onto an executive or managerial contract just to avoid the appearance of that person entering a lame-duck year.  Of course, even a longer contract is no guarantee of job security, as a rough season can instantly put a manager or a front office on the hot seat.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Ron Washington is already heading into the final season under contract, as he signed only a two-year deal to manage the Halos in November 2023.  While the Angels were only 63-99 last season, it could hardly be considered Washington’s fault given the subpar state of the roster.  Expectations will be higher in 2025 since the team has been aggressing in adding talent this winter, and since GM Perry Minasian got a contract extension last August, Los Angeles might also look to add a year onto Washington’s deal to at least keep him on line with the guaranteed portion of Minasian’s new contract.  It should be noted that Washington turns 73 this coming April, so he might also prefer to just take things year-to-year if he has any thoughts about retirement.

Astros: Dana Brown is entering his third season as Houston’s GM, and the terms of his contract weren’t made public when he was hired in January 2023.  It is possible Brown might only be working on a three-year deal since his predecessor James Click also received just a three-year commitment, though Click was hired in the singular aftermath of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  This probably isn’t a situation to monitor too closely since the Astros have kept winning during Brown’s tenure, with the caveat that owner Jim Crane and his advisors are known to weigh heavily on baseball operations decisions.  Click was let go within days of winning a World Series due to reported acrimony with Crane, but there hasn’t been any indication of any heat between Crane and Brown.

Athletics: Mark Kotsay’s initial contract covered the 2022-24 seasons, and the A’s picked up Kotsay’s 2025 club option over a year ago.  GM David Forst said in October that “there’s no one I would rather have managing this team,” and that Kotsay “wants to be here,” though there hasn’t been any public word about any extension talks.  As comfortable as Kotsay seems with the organization, it is possible he might be willing to let the season play out and then explore his options, if he has any uncertainty over continuing to manage the A’s through their stint in West Sacramento before their planned move to Las Vegas for the 2028 season.  While no public details were revealed about Forst’s latest contract, the GM has obviously signed some kind of extension since his last deal expired after the 2023 season, and said in November that “I’ve been here for 25 years.  There’s not a thought that I wouldn’t be in this for the long run.”

Blue Jays: Manager John Schneider is entering the last guaranteed season of his three-year contract, as the Blue Jays hold a club option on Schneider for 2026.  It is fair to guess that the Jays might not exercise that option too far in advance, as there is widespread speculation that another disappointing season (or even a slow start) will cost Schneider his job.  The same could be true of general manager Ross Atkins, even though Atkins is under contract through 2026.  Team president Mark Shapiro is also entering the final season of his five-year contract, and while Shapiro’s focus has been more towards bigger-picture projects like Rogers Centre’s renovations, his possible departure might also trigger a larger overhaul unless the Jays turn things around on the field in 2025.

Braves: Manager Brian Snitker is entering the last year of his contract, so the Braves might well look to tack at least one more season onto Snitker’s deal this spring.  Snitker has led Atlanta to the postseason in each of the last seven seasons, highlighted by the team’s World Series victory in 2021.  He has stuck to just shorter-term deals and extensions during his tenure, which is probably due more to his age (Snitker turned 69 in October) than any dissatisfaction on the organization’s part, so no change seems imminent in the Braves dugout.

Cardinals: John Mozeliak’s exit plan is already in place.  The longtime head of the St. Louis front office is stepping down after the 2025 season, with Chaim Bloom already inked to a long-term contract to become the Cardinals’ next president of baseball operations.

Cubs: The Cubs have posted 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons, but they still haven’t reached the postseason during Jed Hoyer’s four-year tenure as president of baseball operations.  2025 is the last year of Hoyer’s original five-year contract, and acquiring Kyle Tucker (who is a free agent next winter) in a big-ticket trade might indicate that Hoyer is feeling some heat to win as soon as possible.  It can be argued that Hoyer has been somewhat hamstrung by ownership’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market, but that might also indicate that ownership could be considering hiring a PBO with more experience in building contenders on limited budgets.

Dodgers: Reports surfaced earlier today that the Dodgers are planning to work out an extension with Dave Roberts, as the skipper is entering the last season of his last three-year extension with the club.  It comes as no surprise that L.A. wants to retain Roberts in the wake of the team’s second World Series title during his tenure, and it stands to reason that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is also a candidate for a new deal, perhaps regardless of the terms of his last agreement.  Friedman came to the Dodgers on a five-year deal in October 2014, then signed an extension of an unknown length in November 2019.  If that next contract was another five-year pact, Friedman is a technically free agent right now, but there has no zero indication that Friedman (who has been as busy as ever in bolstering the Dodgers roster this winter) is going anywhere.

Guardians: This is a speculative entry since it has been well over a decade since Chris Antonetti’s contract terms were publicly reported.  Even if he is approaching the end of his current deal, there hasn’t been any sense that the Guardians are planning a front office change, especially not in the wake of another AL Central crown and a trip to the ALCS.  Antonetti has been a member of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and in his current role as president of baseball operations since October 2015.

Mariners: Jerry Dipoto has been extended twice since the M’s first hired him in September 2015, and his last extension in September 2021 was a multi-year deal of unspecified length.  It is therefore possible this could be Dipoto’s final season under contract as Seattle’s president of baseball operations, unless another extension has been signed in the last three-plus years.  Despite four straight seasons of 85 or more wins, the Mariners reached the playoffs just once in that span, as a lack of hitting has hampered the team over the last two years in particular.  It remains to be seen if ownership is okay with just being competitive (or, as Dipoto infamously put it, winning “54 percent of the time“) or if any impatience is growing over the Mariners’ difficulty in truly breaking through as a contender.  The Mariners were sparked to a 21-13 record down the stretch after manager Dan Wilson was hired last August, so it could be that the managerial change (and a change of hitting coaches) is what was needed to get the M’s back on track, but Dipoto and Wilson could both face pressure if Seattle again falls short of postseason baseball.

Orioles: Mike Elias has been Baltimore’s GM for six seasons, though his contract terms haven’t been made public at any point during his tenure.  Manager Brandon Hyde signed a three-year deal when first hired prior to the 2019 season, and he has signed at least one or perhaps two extensions since, leaving his contract status a bit of a mystery.  This is another situation where job security probably isn’t an issue, as the Orioles have come out of their rebuild to reach the playoffs in back-to-back years, even if the club has yet to record even a single postseason win in that span.  New owner David Rubenstein is eager to win but hasn’t shown any inclination to changing the leadership structure since he bought the Orioles earlier this year.

Pirates: Ben Cherington has now completed five full seasons as the Buccos’ general manager, so he either signed a somewhat unusually long contract when first hired, or he has already inked one extension that has escaped public attention.  Pittsburgh fans are impatiently waiting for the first winning season of Cherington’s tenure, as the team has flirted with contention in each of the last two years before finishing with identical 76-86 records.  Paul Skenes has at least emerged as the crown jewel of the Pirates’ lengthy rebuild process, so regardless of Cherington’s contract terms, it doesn’t appear as though he is in any danger of being fired.

Rangers: Bruce Bochy’s return to managing saw him sign a three-year contract with Texas, so 2025 represents the final year of that deal.  Bochy turns 70 in April but didn’t give any hints about retiring when speaking to reporters at the end of the season.  A second straight losing season might change the equation either on Bochy’s end or on the front office’s end, but the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title (to say nothing of Bochy’s three previous rings as the Giants’ manager) has naturally brought him a lot of leeway within the organization.  Both sides might prefer to go year-to-year just to maintain flexibility, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Bochy soon gets another year added to his contract.

Rockies: Bud Black has signed three straight one-year extensions to remain as Colorado’s manager, and past reports have indicated that Black is on something of an unofficial year-to-year rolling contract with the organization.  It is perhaps notable that Black’s most recent deal wasn’t finalized until this past October, whereas his previous two extensions were completed prior to the start of the seasons.  This might indicate that ownership and/or Black himself are starting to think harder about continuing the relationship in the wake of six straight losing seasons, even despite the Rockies’ well-known penchant for staying loyal to long-term employees.  The same logic could extend to GM Bill Schmidt, though Schmidt’s contract terms haven’t been known since he was elevated to the full-time general manager position in October 2021.

Royals: Matt Quatraro is entering the final guaranteed year of his initial three-year contract as manager, though the Royals have a club option on his services for the 2026 season.  J.J. Picollo has also completed two full seasons as the team’s general manager since being elevated to top of Kansas City’s baseball ops ladder in September 2022, though his contract status in the wake of that promotion wasn’t known.  Regardless, it doesn’t seem like either is going anywhere, and extensions could be in order since the Royals enjoyed an 86-win season and a return to the playoffs last year, including a wild card series win over the Orioles.

Tigers: Likewise, Detroit is also coming off a playoff appearance and a wild card series victory, as a magical late-season surge left the Tigers just one game short of the ALCS.  It is therefore safe to assume that president of baseball operations Scott Harris has plenty of job security, and while his contract terms aren’t known, it is probably safe to assume Harris received more than a three-year guarantee when he was hired in September 2022.

Twins: Some larger-scale changes could be afoot in Minnesota since the Pohlad family is exploring selling the Twins, and some shuffling in the front office has already taken place, with president of baseball ops Derek Falvey also becoming the president of business operations and Jeremy Zoll replacing Thad Levine as general manager.  Falvey’s previous deal was up after the 2024 season so obviously he signed an extension, but while manager Rocco Baldelli’s previous extension is known to have run through at least the end of the 2025 campaign, it is unclear if the coming season is the final year of that deal.  If Baldelli is indeed heading into a lame-duck year, the ownership situation might prevent the skipper from getting at least another season added to his deal, just so a new owner could potentially have a clean slate in evaluating things once they take over the team.

White Sox: This is more of a speculative entry, just because Chris Getz’s contract terms weren’t released when he was named Chicago’s general manager in August 2023.  A GM wouldn’t normally be considered to be on the hot seat so soon after being hired, nor are immediate results expected since the White Sox are quite obviously going through a hefty rebuild.  While nobody expected the Sox to contend in 2024, however, there’s a difference between just being a losing team and having a league-record 121 losses.  Another embarrassment of a season might give owner Jerry Reinsdorf second thoughts about Getz’s stewardship of the rebuild effort, or the possibility exists that Reinsdorf could sell the team, which should shake the organization up entirely.

Yankees: Aaron Boone quieted some of his critics when the Yankees both returned to the postseason, and captured the first AL pennant of Boone’s seven-year stint as the Bronx manager.  This result led the Yankees to exercise their club option on Boone’s services for 2025, and while no negotiations had taken place about a longer-term deal as of early November, it stands to reason that some talks will take place before Opening Day.  Then again, Boone’s current deal wasn’t signed until after he’d already completed the final season his previous contract, so it could be that the Yankees will again play wait-and-see.  There isn’t much sense that Boone is in jeopardy, and while expectations are always high in New York, ownership’s loyalty to Boone through some relative lean years would make it unusual if he was let go so soon after a World Series appearance.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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It has been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed deal that would’ve seen the veteran third baseman go from the Cardinals to the Astros.  The next step in the Cards’ efforts to trade Arenado remain unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report that “there has been minimal traction on Arenado’s front since the Astros deal fell through.”

The lack of activity isn’t exactly surprising given how many factors complicate any potential deal.  The Rockies are covering $10MM of the remaining $74MM owed to Arenado over the last three years of his contract, and some deferred money involved in the contract reportedly makes Arenado’s remaining salary worth $60MM in present-day money.  That’s still a big chunk of change that the Cardinals are looking to mostly shed from their payroll, leaving a fairly limited number of possible suitors who have both payroll space and a need at third base.

To the latter point, Arenado has indicated a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe told reporters during the Winter Meetings.  Arenado is ultimately in the driver’s seat in these negotiations due to his no-trade protection, and past reports have indicated that he would okay a deal to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, though it appears this list of preferred destinations is somewhat fluid.

In fact, Houston was on an initial version of that list, as Woo and Chandler Rome wrote earlier this month.  The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker just a few days before the proposed Arenado trade reportedly gave him pause about going to Houston, which is why he invoked his no-trade clause at the time.  However, the door wasn’t entirely closed on a potential deal, as Sammon and Woo write that Arenado “was willing to revisit the Astros after further clarity developed in his market (namely, Alex Bregman signing).”

The Astros ended up moving on from both Arenado and Bregman, as they instead signed Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, thus pushing Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal with the Cubs) across the diamond as the new regular third baseman.  Even with his former team now out of the running, Bregman is still garnering plenty of interest, as such clubs as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets have all been linked to him this winter.  Reports have been somewhat mixed about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman, as the primary hold-up in Arenado’s case being New York’s unwillingness to take on the bulk of his remaining salary.

The overlap between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s reported trade preference list is likely why Arenado’s situation hasn’t much changed in the last couple of weeks, as it might take Bregman signing to spark renewed interest in teams returning to trade talks with the Cardinals.  If Arenado can’t be traded at all, St. Louis could simply bring him back for the coming season and perhaps explore deals later — even as early as the trade deadline, as a hot start from Arenado could help erase any worries a suitor might have about his average offensive numbers from the last two seasons.

Keeping Arenado even for the short term doesn’t solve the Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll, however, so Sammon and Woo write the Cards would then likely put a better emphasis on trading a starting pitcher to save some money.  Sonny Gray has indicated he isn’t going to waive his own no-trade protection and Andre Pallante is still in his arbitration-eligible years, leaving Miles Mikolas (owed $16MM in 2025), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) or Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) as the top trade chips.  It seems likely that St. Louis would be open to moving Mikolas or Matz with or without an Arenado trade, though Sammon and Woo note that the Cardinals would prefer to keep Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they move him at all.

Astros, Miguel Castro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros are in agreement with reliever Miguel Castro, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 specifies that it’s a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invite. Castro, a client of Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment, would lock in a $1.5MM base salary if he makes the MLB roster, according to Alexander.

Castro, who turned 30 last week, is aiming to pitch his way onto an MLB roster for an 11th straight year. The well-traveled righty has suited up for six different teams. Castro carries a 4.20 earned run average in nearly 500 MLB innings. He’d generally posted an ERA in the low-4.00s, including a 4.31 mark through an NL-high 75 appearances for the Diamondbacks in 2023. That triggered a $5MM vesting option for the ’24 season.

That didn’t work out well for Arizona. Shoulder inflammation sent Castro to the injured list midway through April. He was shelved until the All-Star Break. Castro made 11 appearances and surrendered nine runs over 13 2/3 innings. Arizona designated him for assignment just before the trade deadline. They released him at the start of August. Castro spent the rest of the season in free agency.

Houston has a thin relief group that should give Castro a real chance to earn a roster spot out of camp. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and (barring a late-offseason trade) Ryan Pressly will be at the back end. Tayler Scott is out of options and pitched well enough to lock down a middle relief job. That leaves as many as four spots up for grabs. Even if the Astros bring in a veteran on a low-cost MLB deal, Castro could vie with Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley and Kaleb Ort for low-leverage work.

Third Base Rumors: Bregman, Arenado, Yankees, Tigers, Astros

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With the Yankees in need of infield help, both Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado have been linked to the club this offseason, with the idea being that one would become New York’s new third baseman and Jazz Chisholm Jr. would become the full-time second baseman.  However, during an edition of the YES Network’s “Yankees Hot Stove” show earlier this week, Jack Curry said that the Bronx Bombers weren’t in on either Bregman or Arenado, and pushed back on the idea that the Yankees ever had interest in trading for Arenado.

This runs counter to last week’s report (from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch) that the Yankees offered Marcus Stroman to the Cardinals as part of a trade package for Arenado, though St. Louis rejected the deal.  As always with seemingly contradictory offseason reports, the truth could lie somewhere in the middle.  Hypothetically, it could be that New York’s interest in Arenado was limited to this scenario that would’ve seen Stroman’s salary moved off the team’s books.

Whatever the depth of the Yankees’ interest in Arenado might be, it could be a moot point if Arenado himself isn’t interested in joining the team.  The Yankees aren’t one of the six clubs (the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox) Arenado is reportedly willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, and Arenado has already vetoed a proposed deal to the Astros.  There was speculation that New York’s deal with Paul Goldschmidt was made in part to entice Arenado to accept a trade to the Bronx to join his old teammate, yet Curry’s report seems to close the door on that possibility.

In addition to signing Goldschmidt and Max Fried, the Yankees have also traded for Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams, and Fernando Cruz, as GM Brian Cashman has aggressively reloaded the roster after Juan Soto left to sign with the Mets.  Even with some holes left to be addressed, New York is projected (by RosterResource) for a luxury tax number of $303.2MM, and thus the team is already over the maximum penalty threshold of $301MM.

The Yankees could reduce their tax bill by trying to move Stroman or another unfavorable contract, yet the payroll situation might hint at why Arenado or Bregman aren’t (or no longer are) on the radar.  Signing Bregman would require a far higher investment than taking most or all of Arenado’s contract in a trade, plus since Bregman rejected Houston’s qualifying offer, the Yankees would need to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money.  Since the Bombers already paid that extra penalty to sign another qualified free agent in Fried, the club would very likely prefer to avoid further depleting its draft pool and bonus pool by adding Bregman.

If the Yankees are indeed out on Bregman, that leaves the Phillies, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, and Tigers as teams known to have some level of interest in Bregman’s services this winter.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press shed a little more light on the Tigers’ link in the latest edition of the Days of Roar podcast, noting that “there has been an increase in the Tigers’ prioritization of Bregman” as the offseason has developed, with “more dialogue, more conversation” between the club and Bregman’s camp.

Heading into the offseason, Detroit was viewed as a logical landing spot for Bregman for multiple reasons — his past history with manager A.J. Hinch, the lack of long-term money on the Tigers’ books, and the perception that the Tigers were going to be aggressive in the wake of their Cinderella run to the ALDS last season.  The latter point hasn’t played out to date, as Alex Cobb’s one-year, $15MM deal represents the Motown team’s only major investment of the winter.

Bregman’s reported asking price of at least $200MM appears to be the hold-up, as the Tigers aren’t willing to spend to that level.  What remains unclear is if Detroit is willing to at least approach Bregman’s demands, or if the team is aiming lower overall.  Most of the free agents or trade targets publicly linked to the Tigers in rumors this winter (i.e. Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Walker Buehler, Kirby Yates, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson) are either already under contract on short-term deals, or would likely require only one- or two-year investments.  Apart from Bregman, Jack Flaherty and Ha-Seong Kim are the other free agents on the Tigers’ list of targets that would require bigger contracts, and even Kim’s situation is fluid due to the lingering uncertainty surrounding his shoulder surgery.

Bregman already turned down a reported six-year, $156MM offer from the Astros earlier this winter, which was the first step towards what now looks like the end of a reunion possibility between the third baseman and his longtime team.  Acquiring corner infielder Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade left open the possibility that Bregman could still be re-signed and Paredes could play first base in Houston, but the Astros’ three-year, $60MM deal with first baseman Christian Walker has now addressed the team’s needs in the corner infield.

While not officially stating that the Astros were now out on Bregman, GM Dana Brown left things pretty clear by stating “Paredes is going to play third and Walker is going to play first” when speaking with reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) earlier this week.  Brown felt “the negotiations stalled” with Bregman’s camp, leaving the Astros in search of an alternative.

“I thought we made a really competitive offer and showed that we wanted [Bregman] back,” Brown said.  “But we had to pursue other options, we couldn’t just sit there.  We locked in Paredes early in that trade knowing that he could play third or first. And then when the opportunity to add another bat [Walker] came up, we just jumped on it.”

Astros Could Pursue Lefty-Batting Outfielder, Reliever

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The Astros have added a pair of talented right-handed bats to their lineup this offseason: third baseman Isaac Paredes and first baseman Christian Walker. However, they also parted ways with one of the premier left-handed hitters in the sport when they traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and Cam Smith. That means the ’Stros have a very righty-heavy offense; Yordan Alvarez is their only dangerous lefty bat. It also means Houston has a glaring hole in the outfield. Manager Joe Espada would prefer to scale back Alvarez’s playing time in the field next year (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic). That would leave Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell to play the outfield. It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.

With all that in mind, general manager Dana Brown told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that he’s not finished adding to the roster. For one thing, he could still go after a left-handed hitting outfielder. Presumably, it won’t be one of the top remaining free agent bats, like the switch-hitting Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar. Brown has downplayed the suggestion that he’s working under any strict payroll constraints. However, Chandler Rome recently said on the Foul Territory podcast, “From what I’m hearing, I don’t expect any more significant big-dollar additions.” That’s a speculative comment, but it’s informed speculation. To that point, Rome suggests the Astros would prefer to get back under the luxury tax in 2025. Currently, RosterResource puts them about $3MM above the first tax threshold. They are known to be looking to offload Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary in a trade, but even a move like that wouldn’t give them enough flexibility to sign Santander or Profar without having to pay the luxury tax.

Less expensive outfield options for the Astros could include free agents Jesse Winker, Alex Verdugo, or David Peralta. They could also consider a reunion with Jason Heyward. Meanwhile, if they don’t bring in an outside reinforcement, Rome names Zach Dezenzo and Jacob Melton as two prospects to keep an eye on. Yet, neither is necessarily a strong solution. Dezenzo is right-handed and has very limited experience playing the outfield. Melton is a highly-regarded outfield prospect, but he struggled offensively at Triple-A in 2024. While he bats left-handed and has had success against right-handed pitching, his platoon splits against southpaws are so poor that he’ll have to take a big step forward before he becomes an everyday option for the Astros.

Turning to the pitching staff, Brown suggested he’s happy with his club’s rotation depth (per Kawahara). Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Arrighetti will most likely make up the Opening Day rotation, while recent acquisition Wesneski offers insurance at Triple-A. However, the bullpen is an area where Brown could look to make an addition. The Astros arm barn was solid but unspectacular in 2024, and they have yet to make any moves to address the losses of Caleb Ferguson, Héctor Neris, and Seth Martinez. On top of that, all of those losses would pale in comparison to the potential loss of Pressly. The veteran right-hander has been a key cog in Houston’s bullpen for the past seven years. It’s understandable why the Astros are looking to trade him – he’s still making top closer money when he’s really more of a set-up man – but he’ll be hard to replace.

The Astros could pursue a similarly talented arm who will come with a slightly cheaper price tag, such as Chris Martin or A.J. Minter. Yet, that might not leave them with enough payroll left over to add an outfielder. Thus, they could prefer to bet on a cheaper option instead. Perhaps that’s a bounce-back candidate like Will Smith or Dylan Floro or an undervalued, high-upside arm like Danny Coulombe or Jalen Beeks.

Astros DFA Grae Kessinger

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After officially announcing the Christian Walker signing earlier today, the Astros have designated infielder Grae Kessinger for assignment to open a spot for Walker on the 40-man roster (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

Kessinger, 27, was Houston’s second-round pick in the 2019 draft. The grandson of six-time All-Star Don Kessinger, he showed off excellent bat-to-ball skills in college, hitting .330 with a .904 OPS in his junior year at Ole Miss. However, evaluators had concerns about his ability to keep up against major league pitching. There were also rumblings he wouldn’t be able to stick at shortstop. Indeed, Kessinger struggled at the plate over his first few years in the Astros farm system, and he played all around the infield as the organization looked to maximize his versatility.

After his promotion to Triple-A in 2023, Kessinger seemed to take a step forward at the plate. He improved his walk-to-strikeout ratio and put up an .832 OPS and a 107 wRC+. It was enough to earn him a call-up to the big league club that summer. However, he failed to make an offensive impact at the major league level, going 8-for-40 with 12 strikeouts, good for a .614 OPS and 73 wRC+ in 26 games.

Despite his big league struggles in 2023, Kessinger made the Astros’ Opening Day roster in 2024. Unfortunately, he continued to come up short against MLB pitching. In 25 plate appearances, he didn’t manage a single hit. He walked thrice, reached once on a hit-by-pitch, and struck out seven times. To make matters worse, he regressed at Triple-A as well. His OPS dropped by more than 100 points from the year before, while his wRC+ fell to a well-below-average 83. 

Considering all his struggles at the plate, it’s hardly surprising to see Kessinger DFA’d. However, he can still provide value with his versatility – he’s played all four infield positions at the MLB level – and there could certainly be a team that sees enough potential in the former second-round pick to claim him off of waivers. If not, the Astros will have the option to send him outright to the minors and keep him in the organization.

Astros Sign Christian Walker

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December 23: The Astros have officially announced Walker’s signing. According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the deal includes a limited no-trade clause and will pay Walker an even $20MM annually per season.

December 20: A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to terms on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA client’s deal is still pending a physical.

Walker’s deal with Houston seems to shut the door on the possibility of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could’ve played first base with Bregman in the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Similarly, this effectively eliminates any chances of Nolan Arenado landing in Houston — an outcome that was all but at the finish line before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time now, dating back to the trade deadline when was reportedly at the top of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get done then, obviously, but Houston still has a need at first base after their three-year deal with Jose Abreu almost immediately imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an awful .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, meanwhile, hit .251/.335/.468 — almost an exact match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries through 3171 plate appearances dating back to the 2019 season.

On top of his quality results at the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s won three straight Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in those respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position has essentially been unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are strong fits for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who’s one of the game’s most dead-pull and prominent fly-ball hitters. Walker has more of an all-fields approach, but when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply, Walker may spray the ball around a bit more than Paredes, but when he does pull the ball, he lifts it far more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with plenty of pop in his bat, that should play quite nicely with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a year less than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is an exact match for our predicted contract back on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The $20MM annual salary on the contract puts the Astros north of the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season. RosterResource now projects them at $244MM of luxury obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the coming season. Their bottom-line payroll will depend on how that $60MM is divided over the three years of the deal, but if it’s evenly distributed, Houston would be just over $225MM in terms of actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could duck back under the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling teams they don’t intend to trade top starter Framber Valdez, but they’ve been exploring the trade market for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. More speculatively, they could also gauge interest in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM salary, then turn that role over to Cesar Salazar, who hit well in Triple-A and the majors this past season.

Dropping back under the tax line, however, doesn’t appear to be any kind of mandate. Owner Jim Crane said earlier in the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 levels of spending if the right scenario presented itself. At the time, few envisioned that would entail trading Tucker and letting Bregman walk, but the Astros have been averse to the types of long-term megadeals both players — Tucker in particular — are expected to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension under Crane’s ownership, the latter also being the largest guarantee in franchise history.

As a result, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman in the past three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason and will still be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him at the contract’s halfway point. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, as it came in the lull between the team’s dismissal of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may feel some trepidation about another multi-year deal for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, though it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in year one of his contract; Walker will be 36 in the final season of this deal.

Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’ll cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they’ll receive a comp pick after the first round, because Walker’s agreement is for more than $50MM guaranteed. It’ll be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be tough to replicate with in-house options. Former top-10 draft pick Pavin Smith hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first big league success in parts of five seasons and came in a small sample. The Snakes can hope for a similar late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, but odds are against that. They could look to affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift through a deep trade market of first base options that includes Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casas (though the asking price on Casas would be extreme and surely cost the D-backs some coveted young pitching).

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in advanced talks and closing in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement was in place, pending physical. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the terms.

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