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Reds’ Prospect Edwin Arroyo Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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The Reds informed reporters this evening that infield prospect Edwin Arroyo underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his left shoulder (via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). He’ll miss the entire 2024 season. Arroyo suffered the injury when he dove back to a base on a pickoff attempt while playing in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Cincinnati acquired Arroyo as the secondary piece in the 2022 deadline blockbuster that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. The package was built around Noelvi Marte, but Arroyo was viewed as a borderline Top 100 caliber prospect in his own right. He spent most of last season at High-A Dayton, where he hit .248/.321/.427 with 13 home runs and 28 stolen bases. While not an overwhelming showing, that was respectable production for a 19-year-old.

Arroyo ranked among Cincinnati’s five to seven best prospects at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law each slotted him at the back half of the sport’s Top 100 minor league talents, calling him a potential regular as a switch-hitter with some power and a chance to stick at shortstop. While he’s certainly young enough to get to that point, the surgery deals a hit to his prospect stock and costs him a year of development reps. Arroyo had barely reached Double-A and was unlikely to impact the major league team this season, but he could’ve played his way to the upper levels with an eye towards a 2025 debut.

Instead, he’ll be faced with an extended rehab process before hopefully starting the ’25 season healthy in Double-A. Cincinnati will need to decide at the end of the 2025 campaign whether to add him to the 40-man roster or expose him to the Rule 5 draft.

Reds Acquire Santiago Espinal

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The Reds acquired infielder Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays for minor league righty Chris McElvain, both teams announced. Cincinnati has a full 40-man roster but did not immediately reveal the corresponding move.

Acquiring an infielder a week before Opening Day probably wasn’t what the Reds anticipated entering camp. For most of the offseason, it seemed likelier that Cincinnati’s infield depth would lead them to trade someone away. That was particularly true after they added corner infielder Jeimer Candelario on a three-year free agent pact.

Things have changed rather quickly. Top prospect Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games after a positive test for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone. That cleared everyday third base reps for Candelario, who had previously been ticketed for action between both corner spots and designated hitter. Perhaps even more alarming than the Marte suspension was today’s announcement that expected second baseman Matt McLain received an MRI on his injured left shoulder.

The team hasn’t provided a timeline on McLain, but manager David Bell told reporters this evening that he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. Bell had rather ominously left open the possibility that McLain could require surgery this morning, although the team hasn’t announced anything on that front. The UCLA product is headed for a second opinion before there’ll be an official timetable.

That the Reds went outside the organization for another infielder wouldn’t seem to point towards them expecting McLain’s return in short order. While they await official word on his injury, they add a quality defender who can serve as a depth piece at any of second base, third base or shortstop.

Espinal, 29, rode a surprisingly strong first half to an All-Star selection in 2022. His overall track record suggests he’s more of a high-end utility player than a regular on a contender, though. Espinal has plus contact skills with below-average power. His career .273/.331/.367 batting line is right around league average, as measured by wRC+, but he’s coming off a down year.

The righty-hitting Espinal turned in a .248/.310/.335 slash with two homers over 254 plate appearances last season. He lost a couple weeks to right hamstring inflammation but otherwise spent the year as a versatile infielder off the bench. Espinal saw most of his action at second and third base. He has graded as an above-average to plus defender at both spots in the eyes of public defensive metrics. He’s capable of playing shortstop but wasn’t asked to do so often in Toronto, where Bo Bichette has been an everyday lineup fixture for three years.

Espinal still has a pair of minor league options, so the Reds can move him to Triple-A Louisville, but they presumably would not have parted with a pitching prospect if they didn’t anticipate him being on the major league roster. He’ll back up Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz and Candelario while Marte and McLain are out. His acquisition doesn’t bode well for the chances of non-roster invitee Erik González breaking camp. The Reds also had Josh Harrison and Tony Kemp on minor league deals this spring. Both players opted out and returned to free agency after being informed they wouldn’t make the team.

In January, the Jays and Espinal agreed on a $2.725MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing. That’s a fully guaranteed deal which Cincinnati agreed to absorb. RosterResource calculated their payroll around $102MM before the trade; they’re up to roughly $105MM after the deal. Espinal has a little under four years of major league service. Cincinnati can control him via arbitration for another three seasons.

Toronto offloads a few million dollars from a payroll that had been projected around $236MM. Their luxury tax number sat around $249MM. That’ll also fall by $2.725MM. As second-time tax payors, they owe a 30% fee on spending between $237MM and $257MM. Shedding Espinal’s salary also saves them around $818K in tax commitments.

Moving Espinal clears a path for the out-of-options Ernie Clement to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster. As a contact-oriented righty hitter with infield versatility, he offers a similar profile to Espinal. The Jays feared that Clement would be claimed off waivers if they tried to send him to Triple-A, particularly on the heels of a huge showing this spring.

They’ll add McElvain as a flier to the lower levels of the system. An eighth-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2022, he worked as a starter between two A-ball levels last season. McElvain pitched to a 3.75 ERA through 96 innings, albeit with a slightly below-average 21.1% strikeout rate and a walk percentage just south of 10%. He was not among Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America and didn’t receive a mention on Keith Law’s analysis of the system for The Athletic.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Matt McLain Headed For Second Opinion On Injured Shoulder

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6:10pm: Bell conceded this evening that McLain will not be available on Opening Day (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). He’s headed for a second opinion to determine the extent of the injury but now seems likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

12:44pm: Reds infielder Matt McLain was scratched from the lineup Monday due to some discomfort in his left shoulder, prompting the club to have an MRI performed. While the team hasn’t divulged anything conclusive yet, manager David Bell provided an ominous update Wednesday, telling the Reds beat that the MRI found “something” and that the team is still gathering information and determining how to proceed (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). There’s an unusually broad range of outcomes at this point, as Bell didn’t firmly rule out McLain for the Opening Day roster but also acknowledged that there’s a “possibility” of shoulder surgery.

The 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, the now-24-year-old McLain made his big league debut in 2023 and immediately made an impact. In 89 games and 403 trips to the plate, he slashed .290/.357/.507 (128 wRC+) with 16 homers, 23 doubles, four triples and 14 stolen bases (in 19 tries). His 7.7% walk rate was a bit lower than average, while his 28.5% strikeout rate was well north of average.

McLain had some good fortune on balls in play (.385 BABIP), though some of that lofty BABIP is attributable to a huge 24.2% line-drive rate and strong 42.8% hard-hit rate. It’s still fair to project some regression in his performance, but even if he’s not hitting at the borderline star-caliber level he did in 2023, McLain has the look of an everyday fixture in the Reds’ lineup due both to his bat and his defensive versatility.

Though McLain was drafted as a shortstop, he split hit time between the two middle infield slots. Bell suggested earlier in camp that McLain was likelier to focus on second base this season. Elly De La Cruz is expected to take the lion’s share of reps at shortstop, though McLain could slide to that side of the bag in the event of further injury troubles for De La Cruz.

The Reds have a noted infield surplus which was only deepened when they signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year deal over the winter. An 80-game PED suspension for promising 22-year-old Noelvi Marte has thinned out the perceived logjam a bit, and an absence for McLain would lend further clarity to the division of playing time around the diamond. As it stands, Candelario appears lined up for regular work at the hot corner, with De La Cruz at short, McLain at second, Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base and Spencer Steer in left field. Former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been expected to bounce between second base, first base and designated hitter, though he could certainly reclaim regular playing time at second base if McLain heads to the injured list.

McLain picked up 140 days of major league service time in 2023, leaving him a bit more than a month shy of a full year (172 days). That means the Reds still have six full seasons of control over him, though he’ll very likely wind up reaching Super Two status and thus be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three. The first of those four offseasons of arbitration eligibility would fall after the 2025 campaign. On his current trajectory, McLain wouldn’t qualify for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason.

Brandon Williamson To Begin Season On Injured List

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Reds starter Brandon Williamson will begin the season on the 15-day injured list, manager David Bell informed the Cincinnati beat on Tuesday (relayed by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The left-hander departed his Spring Training start over the weekend with shoulder soreness.

There’s no indication it’s expected to be a long-term issue, but the team didn’t provide a timeline for his return. Williamson held a spot in the Reds rotation for much of last season. He started 23 games and worked 117 innings as a rookie. After being hit hard through his first eight starts, Williamson settled in as a decent back-of-the-rotation contributor. He finished his debut campaign with a 4.46 ERA, a respectable figure for a rookie pitching in one of the league’s most hitter-friendly home environments.

That came with middling peripherals, but the TCU product still had a shot of securing a season-opening rotation spot if he were healthy. With Williamson on the shelf, Bell said that fellow lefty Andrew Abbott will get a starting job. The Reds had previously been noncommittal on that, even though Abbott had a strong rookie campaign. Over 21 starts, he worked to a 3.87 ERA while punching out 26.1% of opposing hitters. The overall numbers were impressive, but Abbott’s production fell off dramatically down the stretch. He carried a 2.35 ERA into August before allowing more than six earned runs per nine in each of the final two months.

Abbott rounds out a season-opening rotation that’ll be fronted by offseason pickup Frankie Montas. The Reds announced that the hard-throwing righty will get the nod on Opening Day for his team debut. He’ll be followed in some order by Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, fellow free agent signee Nick Martinez, and Abbott. Martinez has plenty of experience as both a starter and reliever. He’ll take at least one turn through the rotation but would be an option to move back to the bullpen once Nick Lodolo is ready for his season debut. The Reds have targeted the second week of April for the left-hander, who lost most of the 2023 season to a stress fracture in his left tibia.

Cincinnati was hit with bigger injury news over the weekend, as center fielder TJ Friedl was diagnosed with a fracture in his right wrist. He’ll be out for quite some time. At this stage of the offseason, there aren’t any MLB-caliber center fielders still available in free agency. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes that the Reds seem likely to turn to the combination of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild to cover center field if they can’t find help outside the organization.

As a left-handed hitter, Benson would be in position for the stronger side of a possible platoon arrangement. The Reds kept him away from southpaws last season, limiting him to 44 plate appearances. Benson was excellent when put in favorable platoon situations. He hit .297/.389/.549 in a little under 300 trips versus righty pitching. That kind of production was always going to warrant a lot of play in the Cincinnati outfield. The bigger question is whether he’s capable of handling an up-the-middle position. Benson only has 88 major league innings in center field. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have each graded him as a roughly neutral defender in the corners.

Fairchild appeared in 97 games a year ago, hitting .228/.321/.388. He’s out of minor league options and was already set to break camp, but the Friedl injury pushes him into a more important fourth outfield role. The 28-year-old has posted roughly average offensive numbers against pitchers of either handedness in his major league career. He owns a more impressive .275/.371/.507 slash line over parts of three Triple-A campaigns.

Reds Release Tony Kemp

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The Reds have released infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He had previously signed a minor league deal with the club and that pact allowed him to opt out if not on the roster by March 23. The Reds announced yesterday that he had been reassigned to minor league camp.

Whether he triggered his opt-out or the club proactively let him go to find his next club, the end result is the same. Kemp is now a free agent again and will look around to find his next gig.

The Reds have a fairly crowded position player mix, even though infielder Noelvi Marté was recently hit with an 80-game PED suspension and outfielder TJ Friedl is set to miss extended time due to a wrist fracture. They still have Jeimer Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to take regular infield roles, as Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley and Will Benson could be taking the outfield playing time. Jonathan India could be moving between the infield and outfield while all that group rotates through the designated hitter spot. Players like Stuart Fairchild and Nick Martini are on the roster and could take on bench/depth roles.

With all of those options on hand, a couple of veterans on minor league deals have been squeezed out. Another veteran utility guy, Josh Harrison, opted out of his minor league deal yesterday after being informed he wouldn’t be making the club. Both he and Kemp will be hoping to find new clubs in the coming days, presumably ones with cleaner paths to playing time.

Kemp, 32, had a solid run with the Athletics over the past four years. He limited his strikeouts to a very low rate of 11.7% while also drawing walks at a healthy 10.5% clip. He didn’t do too much damage, hitting just 20 home runs in 1,488 plate appearances, but his contact approach led to a .240/.330/.345 batting line and 97 wRC+.

Unfortunately, his most recent season was the weakest of those four, as he hit just .209/.303/.304 last year for a 77 wRC+. But he still proved useful in other ways, stealing 15 bases while splitting his time between second base and left field. His glovework has been considered around average in left with the metrics split on his defense at the keystone. He has eight Outs Above Average as a second baseman in his career but -17 Defensive Runs Saved.

Josh Harrison Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Reds

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Utility player Josh Harrison has opted of his minor league deal with the Reds, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He signed with the club last month on a deal that allowed him to opt out if not on the roster by March 21. He was informed that he would not be making the team and will be returning to free agency.

The path for Harrison to make the club was not smooth, as the Reds are loaded with talented young position players. That depth has taken some recent hits, as infielder Noelvi Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension while outfielder TJ Friedl is set to miss significant time due to a wrist fracture.

But even with those issues, the club still has plenty of options for filling out its lineup and roster. Jeimer Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can handle the infield duties most of the time, with Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley and Will Benson in the outfield and Tyler Stephenson behind the plate. Jonathan India can have a regular role, serving as the designated hitter or rotating through various defensive positions. Luke Maile and Stuart Fairchild figure to have two bench spots accounted for while the club also has Bubba Thompson, Nick Martini, Rece Hinds and Jacob Hurtubise on the roster. Non-roster invitees such as Tony Kemp, Mike Ford, Mark Mathias and Erik González are around if the club wants to add someone into to its roster.

Harrison would have been in that latter group but hasn’t been in good form recently. He hit just .204/.263/.291 for the Phillies last year and got released in August. He then signed a minor league deal with the Rangers, hitting .222/.323/.370 in six games before opting out of that pact. In eight spring games with the Reds this year, he’s hit .250/.250/.350.

But he’s not too far removed from being a solid utility option in the big leagues. He played 290 games from 2020 to 2022, hitting .270/.332/.390 in that time for a wRC+ of 102. His 5.4% walk rate wasn’t strong but he limited strikeouts to a 14.7% clip. He also bounced around the diamond, playing every position except catcher.

He’ll now look for another opportunity on the open market, with that versatility perhaps helping him find his next gig. He’s not much more than an emergency option at first base, shortstop or center field, having played just one inning in his career at first, just three innings in the past two years at short and 10 innings overall in center. But he has plenty of experience at second base, third base and the outfield corners. There will likely be plenty of roster shuffling in the next week or two as clubs around the league finalize their camp cuts and other veterans trigger opt-outs.

TJ Friedl Facing Extended Absence Due To Wrist Fracture

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Reds center fielder TJ Friedl was pulled from yesterday’s game with what the club initially termed a right wrist sprain, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Since then, however, the club provided a far more dire update regarding Friedl’s status: the 28-year-old’s new diagnosis is a right wrist fracture that will keep him off the club’s Opening Day roster as he figures to miss an “extended period.” Per Wittenmyer, Friedl indicated to reporters this evening that he’ll have to wait for the bone to heal before he can resume baseball activities. While no timetable for Friedl’s return was specified, he expressed optimism that he play for the Reds at some point this year. He’ll be re-evaluated in three to four weeks to determine next steps in his rehab process.

The news is a major blow to the club’s chances in a competitive NL Central division this season. The 28-year-old was one of the club’s most reliable all-around contributors last year with a .279/.352/467 slash line in 138 games to go along with 27 stolen bases and strong defense in center field. That strong performance left Friedl in position to be one of the most crucial pieces in the club’s positional mix this season, particularly given the club’s relative lack of outfield depth in comparison to their famously deep infield mix. In Friedl’s absence, the club will likely turn to the likes of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild in center field to open the season. That would open up playing time on the infield corners for the likes of Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Jonathan India. Nick Martini and Bubba Thompson are among the club’s depth options in the outfield currently on the 40-man roster.

Between the loss of Friedl to injury and third baseman Noelvi Marte’s 80-game suspension following a positive test for the performance enhancing substance Boldenone, the Reds figure to enter the season with substantially less depth on the positional side than expected entering the season. That will mean additional opportunities- and additional pressure- for the club’s bevy of young infielders, which includes the likes of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, each of whom appear likely to get everyday at-bats alongside the likes of Jeimer Candelario, India, and Steer in the club’s infield mix while Friedl and Marte are unavailable. The club also has a handful of non-roster options who could provide additional infield depth coming off the bench, such as Tony Kemp and Josh Harrison.

While those internal options all figure to be under consideration for the Reds, Wittenmyer indicated that president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t rule out looking outside of the organization for additional help on the positional side in light of Friedl’s injury. The Reds made clear how much they valued their position player depth this winter when they not only decided against trading Jonathan India despite him being seemingly squeezed out of the club’s everyday lineup, but doubled down on that decision by adding Candelario to the infield mix on a three-year deal. Those decisions have already paid off in a big way for the club by softening the blow of losing Marte and Friedl before the 2024 season has even begun, and it would be understandable if Krall was interested in finding ways to further bolster the club’s depth.

With that being said, the Pirates’ recent deal with veteran outfielder Michael A. Taylor took the last surefire center fielder off the free agent market last week, meaning the Reds would likely be forced to look to the trade market if they hope to improve their current outfield mix. It would be a surprise to see Cincinnati swing a major move for another bat, though it’s certainly possible the club could look to add a veteran currently in camp with another club on a non-roster deal who isn’t rostered by his current organization, either by way of a minor trade before Spring Training comes to a close or perhaps simply by waiting for them to trigger an opt-out clause and return to the open market. Oscar Mercado, Tim Locastro, Brett Phillips, Rafael Ortega, Trayce Thompson, and Albert Almora are among the many veteran center fielders currently in camp with other clubs on minor league deals who could be speculative fits for a bench role with the Reds should they be made available.

Reds Sign Justin Wilson To Major League Deal

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve signed left-hander Justin Wilson to a one-year deal. The ACES client will be guaranteed $1.5MM on a contract that includes an additional $1MM in possible incentives. Cincinnati already had an opening on the 40-man roster, so no further move was necessary. Manager David Bell told reporters that another lefty reliever, Alex Young, will open the season on the 15-day injured list with a back issue.

Wilson, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers about a month ago. He pitched fairly well in the spring, striking out nine hitters in four official innings, but he seemed blocked from making a stacked Dodger bullpen. He opted out of that deal earlier this week.

Cracking the bullpen in Cincinnati should be easier. Brent Suter is one lefty option but they are otherwise shorthanded in that department. Sam Moll was slowed by some shoulder soreness when he reported to camp and has yet to pitch in an official spring game. Now that Young is also injured, Suter was the only healthy lefty reliever on the roster until this Wilson signing.

Wilson is coming off a couple of injury-marred seasons. After making just five appearances in 2022, he required Tommy John surgery in June of that year. While rehabbing, he signed with the Brewers for 2023. But after being activated off the injured list in July last year, he suffered a lat injury while warming up in the bullpen. He went right back on the IL and wasn’t able to come back, meaning he didn’t make an official big league appearance last year.

But prior to that, he was an effective big league reliever for about a decade. He pitched for the Pirates, Yankees, Tigers, Cubs, Mets and Reds from 2012 to 2021, posting a 3.42 earned run average in 522 appearances. He punched out 25.7% of batters who came to the plate, walking 10.7% of them and kept 46.8% of balls in play on the ground. He earned some leverage work in that time, getting 18 saves and 132 holds.

Though he missed the last couple of campaigns, Wilson is healthy now and brings a solid track record to the Reds. He and Suter should be the club’s lefty relief duo, at least until Moll and Young get healthy.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Reds and Wilson had agreed to a major league contract. The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer had previously relayed that Wilson was in Reds’ camp. MLBTR’s Steve Adams was first to report the deal contained a $1.5MM base salary with an additional $1MM in performance bonuses.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds almost made the playoffs last year as they promoted several exciting prospects and seemed to firmly end their rebuilding period. They added to that foundation this offseason by spreading money around to several free agents.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $61.75MM
Total spending: $111.75MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Though the Reds came up just shy of a postseason berth in 2023, it was still an encouraging campaign. Exciting prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott and Noelvi Marté all debuted, adding to a roster of young talent that already included TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and others.

It was a turning point moment for the franchise in another way as well. In addition to that infusion of young talent, 2023 was the final guaranteed year of Joey Votto’s long-running contract. Signed way back in 2012, he had many excellent seasons for the Reds. But as is so often the case with lengthy contracts, the final years weren’t especially pleasant. Votto missed time in each of the past two years thanks to shoulder surgery. He could have been retained via a club option but the Reds understandably wanted to give more playing time to younger players.

It’s a bittersweet pivot for the club, as Votto is a franchise legend and was one of the few reasons to watch during some challenging years. But he was making $25MM annually in the final years of his contract, a sizeable chunk of change for a club that doesn’t generally run high payrolls. He lingered in free agency for a while but recently signed with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal which comes with a modest $2MM base salary if he makes the club.

With Votto’s contract off the books, the Reds were able to have one of their busiest offseasons in recent memory. Their huge supply of position players seemed to not only squeeze out Votto, but also led to plenty of speculation about a trade. Since the club had an on-paper infield of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain and Encarnacion-Strand, it seemed that Steer was going to be pushed to the outfield and India onto the trading block.

Despite persistent rumors, the club was consistent in maintaining that India wasn’t going anywhere. The 2021 National League Rookie of the Year is coming off two injury-marred campaigns but the Reds seemed to believe in a bounceback and also to value his clubhouse presence. Not only was he not traded, he got a two-year deal to avoid arbitration, locking in a salary for 2025.

The club not making a trade was one surprise, but it was even more surprising when they added another infielder. They signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal with a club option for 2027. His presence further crowded the infield picture, but the Reds don’t have a strict DH, so they could use that spot to rotate their many infielders through. Candelario also gave them a bit of insurance if any of their young infielders suffered an injury or a sophomore slump and needed to return to the minors for a spell.

In hindsight, it now looks wise that they added to their infield, as Marté was recently hit with an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test. As he will sit out the first half of the season, the infield suddenly looks far less crowded. Candelario can play both corner spots but will now likely replace Marté as the regular third baseman.

Elsewhere in the position player mix, the club was facing a slight catching shortage. Last year, they had three backstops, with Luke Maile and Curt Casali in the mix. That allowed Tyler Stephenson to serve as the designated hitter and occasionally play first base. He had a bit of a down year but at least the smaller workload behind the plate kept him off the injured list. Each of Maile and Casili became free agents but the Reds re-signed Maile. Since Casali signed elsewhere, it seems they will pivot to a more traditional two-catcher setup this year.

But the main target of the offseason was pitching. The pitchers on the 2023 club were fairly inexperienced and they also dealt with a number of injuries. The pitching staff as a whole had a 4.83 earned run average last year, better than just five other clubs in the majors. The rotation was even worse, with the Cincy starters posting a 5.43 ERA, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

They could have expected some improvement just with their incumbent options. Each of Greene, Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft spent time on the injured list last year, while Abbott was only able to log 109 1/3 innings due to his midseason promotion. But the club wasn’t content to rely solely on improvements from that group and went on to cast a wide net this winter in looking for upgrades. Their interest extended to notable free agents and trade targets, including Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Yariel Rodríguez and Wade Miley.

They didn’t seem to find much traction in those pursuits. The talks with the White Sox about Cease stalled when the Sox seemingly asked for four or five notable prospects, a price that the Reds were understandably unwilling to pay.

Instead, their big rotation addition came from free agency. The club took a bounceback flier on Frankie Montas, who has been battling shoulder issues for quite some time. He missed some time late in 2022 due to his shoulder and was shaky when on the mound, then required surgery going into 2023 which wiped out most of that season.

There’s certainly risk in giving $16MM to a pitcher with those health concerns, but it’s only for one year and will be a bargain if Montas can get back to his previous self. He made 32 starts with the A’s in 2021 with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate.

The club also bolstered their staff by signing swingman Nick Martínez, who will likely be in the rotation but could eventually end up in the bullpen depending on how things play out. He has worked both roles with the Padres over the past two years, giving Cincy some flexibility to assess the health and performance of Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, Ashcraft and others.

In case Martinez is needed in the rotation, the club also reinforced their bullpen in other ways. They took a gamble on Emilio Pagán, signing him to a two-year deal. He’s coming off a strong season, having posted a 2.99 ERA with the Twins in 2023. But he’s a flyball pitcher who saw his home run to flyball rate drop to 5.3% on the season. The previous three seasons saw that rate fall in the 13-19% range as his ERA finished between 4.43 and 4.83 in those years. Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park was the most homer-friendly venue in the league last year, per Statcast, so the move is a bit eyebrow-raising.

On the other hand, their signing of Brent Suter looks like a steal. He has kept his ERA under 4.00 in five straight seasons, generally doing a great job limiting hard contact. That continued in 2023 even though he moved to the hitter’s haven of Coors Field. He likely could have secured a contract larger than one year and $3MM if he looked to maximize his guarantee, but he grew up in Cincinnati and went to high school there, perhaps leading him to take a bit of a discount to play for his hometown team. Buck Farmer was also brought back to Cincy on a modest deal.

All told, the club boosted the floor in a lot of different areas. They added a couple of starters to the rotation, a few relievers to the bullpen and even added to the already-strong position player mix. Perhaps the recent news about Marté will lead them to dip back into free agency, as there are still players out there.

The club was previously connected to Michael A. Taylor, who remains unsigned. He can provide elite defense and his right-handed bat would pair well with lefty-swinging outfielders like Friedl, Jake Fraley and Will Benson. Steer and India are both right-handed and in the mix for outfield playing time but the Marté suspension might open up some infield playing time for them, perhaps making the fit for someone like Taylor more viable.

Regardless of how that plays out, the roster looks strong going into 2024. They were carried by their lineup last year and almost made the playoffs, despite dismal results from their pitching staff. Even a slight correction could be enough to make them a legit playoff club, but they also increased their chances by signing Montas, Martínez, Pagán, Suter and Farmer. Internal improvements from Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Ashcraft and others would only help matters.

The National League Central is fairly wide open, with no clear favorite. The Reds clearly sensed they have a chance this year and are trying to take advantage. They didn’t make any blockbuster moves but strengthened the roster in several other ways.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
  • Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
  • Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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