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Chase DeLauter To Miss 6-8 Weeks Due To Hamate Surgery

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The Guardians announced today that outfield prospect Chase DeLauter required surgery due to a right hamate fracture. Their announcement noted that the typical return timeline for such a procedure is six to eight weeks.

It’s yet another frustrating injury setback for DeLauter, who has had many of them. Recurring foot injuries limited his workload in both 2023 and 2024. This year, he required core muscle surgery in March, which cost him a couple of months. Now this surgery seems likely to cost him a couple more.

DeLauter, the 16th overall pick of the 2022 draft, has still been productive on a rate basis. He has a .302/.384/.504 batting line and 142 wRC+ in his minor league career overall. That includes a .278/.383/.476 line and 130 wRC+ in Triple-A this year. However, he’s been limited to just 583 plate appearances in the three years since being drafted.

Despite all the setbacks, it seemed possible he would help the Guardians at the big league level this year. He first reached Triple-A late in 2024 then came into camp this year as a non-roster invitee. He was already a long shot to make the Opening Day roster before the core muscle surgery put him out of commission. He returned and got a couple of months on the field and could have been called up to help the Guards, but there’s little chance of that now. With his timeline, he won’t be back until September.

The Guards could give him some big league playing time down the stretch but they may be in a playoff race. Though their outfield hasn’t been strong for a while, they might not want to rely on a prospect who has missed so much time, so perhaps he will finish his season by getting into a few more minor league contests. He’s going to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, so the Guards will be adding him to the roster in the next few months regardless. Perhaps that could lead to DeLauter making his major league debut, especially if the club is out of contention later in the year.

Once he’s on the roster, there’s a path to playing time if he’s healthy. Lane Thomas has been hurt most of this year and is an impending free agent. Will Brennan is recovering from Tommy John surgery and has been a subpar hitter in the big leagues. He also has options remaining. Nolan Jones, Ángel Martínez and Johnathan Rodríguez are all struggling at the plate this year. Steven Kwan has been in some trade speculation but seems likely to stay.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Lange, Imagn Images

Guardians Open To Offers On Shane Bieber

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The Guardians have made rehabbing right-hander Shane Bieber available, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has yet to pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April but is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.

Bieber, 30, signed a two-year, $26MM contract to remain with Cleveland after that ill-timed injury. He can opt out of the contract at season’s end, which only further muddies a complicated trade scenario. Bieber is owed the balance of a $10MM salary and at least a $4MM buyout on a $16MM player option for the upcoming season.

Cleveland had hoped that Bieber would be back on a big league mound by now. He originally embarked on a minor league rehab assignment on May 31 but felt some soreness that caused the Guards to pull him from that rehab stint and slow his return process. That initial soreness didn’t prove to be any kind of significant recurrence of injury, as Bieber’s now back on the mound. He made the second start of his current rehab stint last night with High-A Lake County. He’s pitched five innings and held opponents to a run with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio on this rehab stint. Bieber also tossed 2 1/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts back in that May 31 appearance.

Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his injury. He tossed 12 shutout innings and struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. Also encouraging was the fact that his average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging. It was a sample of just two starts, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Bieber at this point. Scouts figure to keep a particularly close eye on his remaining rehab starts as a result. Not only is Bieber recovering from Tommy John surgery, he’d pitched with diminished results in 2023 due to elbow troubles. He tossed 128 innings in 2023 and logged a 3.80 ERA with a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate.

At his best, Bieber is a frontline starter capable of dominating any lineup in baseball. From 2020-22, he pitched 374 innings with a 2.70 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate and a 47.2% ground-ball rate. Those rate stats all range from good to excellent, and fielding-independent metrics were similarly bullish on Bieber’s success (2.75 FIP, 3.04 SIERA). He looked like more of a third or fourth starter in 2023 while working with career-low velocity, and now he’s coming off a major surgery with at least one minor setback. He’s an enigma, to say the least.

The player option for the 2026 season makes him all the more difficult to value. If Bieber is activated within the next two to three weeks and pitches even competently down the stretch, he’s sure to decline a net $12MM player option in favor of a return to free agency. If he pitches poorly and/or encounters further injury woes, he’d likely pick up that player option and stick his new club with a $16MM salary it’d prefer not to have on the books.

Given all those layers, the Guardians may not extract the sort of return that would typically be commensurate with a brand-name pitcher of this caliber. Bieber stands as a high-upside play but one who comes with plenty of risk as well. A trade shouldn’t be seen as a given, particularly not with Cleveland riding a three-game win streak that’s put them back to .500 and within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot in the American League. But Bieber’s next rehab outing and the Guardians’ play in the next week merit a watchful eye, as a healthy Bieber could be a major boon for a contender’s staff — whether that’s the Guardians themselves or a theoretical trade partner.

Dodgers Pursuing High-End Bullpen Upgrades

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The Dodgers are known to be in the market for bullpen help after injuries to Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech and Blake Treinen have thinned their relief corps. They’re focused on several of the market’s most high-profile names, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who reports that L.A. has inquired on Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, Pirates closer David Bednar, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley and Orioles closer Felix Bautista (in addition to previously reported interest in Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax).

Los Angeles was active on the relief market over the winter, signing Tanner Scott to a four-year deal, Treinen to a two-year contract and Kirby Yates to a one-year pact. Neither Scott (4.00 ERA) nor Yates (4.08) have performed up to expectations, however, and Yates has also missed some time due to a hamstring strain (though he’s been healthy for the past month and a half). Dodgers relievers rank 24th in the majors with a 4.38 earned run average, and they’re at an ugly 5.28 mark over the past month.

Of the names listed, Bednar is the likeliest to change hands. The Pirates, in last place in the NL Central, were swept by the White Sox this weekend and are surefire sellers. Bednar is earning $5.9MM this year and is owed one final raise in arbitration this winter before becoming a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason. The 30-year-old struggled through a down season in 2024 and pitched poorly enough early in 2025 to be optioned to Triple-A; he’s been in vintage form since returning from a brief two-week demotion.

Over his past 31 innings, Bednar boasts a 1.74 ERA with a massive 36.4% strikeout rate against a 5.8% walk rate. He’s currently in a 17 1/3-inning streak without allowing an earned run — his last earned run was on May 24 — and has posted a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio in that time. Pirates ownership has reportedly nixed some trade talks on Bednar, a Pittsburgh native, in the past. That’s not expected to be the case this time around.

Helsley has a good chance of moving as well. The Cardinals dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break and are three back in the NL Wild Card chase. They’ve outperformed all expectations this season after an offseason of inactivity, but they entered the season expecting this to be a transition year as their baseball operations staff turns over. If the Cards win several games in a row and nudge further up the standings, they could wind up hanging onto Helsley, whom Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently highlighted as a potential qualifying offer candidate. Nightengale writes that the Cards don’t plan on making a QO to Helsley, though that could simply indicate there are differing opinions within the front office on whether that’d be prudent.

Helsley, 31, certainly makes sense as a potential QO candidate. He’s been among the best relievers in the National League over the past four seasons, working to a combined 2.06 ERA with 101 saves. This year’s numbers have dipped a bit. He’s sitting on a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. It’s still  a strong performance overall, but not up to the lofty standards he’d set from 2022-24. He’ll still command sizable interest — Nightengale writes that five contenders have been in touch with the Cardinals about him — and should be able to net the Cardinals greater value  (and certainly more MLB-ready talent) than they’d net with a compensatory draft pick if Helsley rejected his QO and signed elsewhere.

The other relievers highlighted are less likely to be traded. Cleveland is reportedly listening on Clase and teammate Cade Smith, but both players will have exorbitant asking prices. Clase is signed cheaply through 2026 and has a pair of affordable club options. Bautista is arbitration-eligible in 2026 and 2027, and the Orioles are far likelier to trade short-term rentals than players controlled multiple years beyond the current season. Both Duran and Jax are controlled through 2027 as well, and the Twins are still on the fringes of the AL Wild Card race as well.

Guardians Listening To Offers On Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith

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The Guardians are listening to offers on their relievers, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That includes a willingness to discuss their star back-end duo of Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith, Heyman adds, though he unsurprisingly notes that the asking price is high enough that a trade of either pitcher remains a long shot.

Teams are generally willing to field offers on almost every player. That’s particularly true for small-market clubs that are constantly trying to balance the short term and the future. It’s only sensible the Guards would hear other teams out on Clase and Smith. Teams are willing to pay a premium for relievers at the deadline. That’d be all the more true for late-game arms who are cheaply controllable for multiple seasons.

Clase is playing on a $4.5MM salary and will make $6MM next year. Cleveland has a pair of club options covering the 2027-28 seasons. Those respectively came with $10MM base salaries, though Clase has since escalated their value to $11.5MM annually by twice winning the American League Reliever of the Year award and by surpassing 200 appearances over the past three-plus seasons. He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if he’s traded.

That’s well below market value for a pitcher of Clase’s caliber. He’s a much better pitcher than Tanner Scott, who signed for four years and a little over $60MM in net present value as last winter’s top free agent reliever. Clase is controllable for his age 27-30 seasons. There’s a chance he’d get into nine figures if he were a free agent.

Clase was MLB’s best reliever in 2024. He surrendered just five earned runs in 74 1/3 innings and went 47-50 in save opportunities. He had an ugly postseason performance but that came in a total of eight innings. Clase is putting together another excellent regular season this year. He has fired 44 innings of 2.86 ERA ball while going 21-25 in save chances. His 23.4% strikeout rate is essentially league average, but he has never been a huge strikeout artist. Clase excels with plus command and movement on his 99 MPH cutter, which hitters very rarely square up.

[Related: Cleveland Guardians Deadline Outlook]

Smith, 26, had a breakout rookie season to emerge as Cleveland’s top setup man. He turned in a 1.91 ERA with a near-36% strikeout rate through 75 1/3 innings a year ago. Smith’s ERA has backed up to a less impressive (though still strong) 3.07 mark across 41 frames this season. He’s striking out 35% of opponents behind a gaudy 15.1% swinging strike rate. The 6’5″ righty has a 96 MPH heater and a plus splitter. Smith is still a season and a half from reaching arbitration and is under club control for four and a half seasons.

There’s virtually no chance the Guardians would trade both relievers. If they were to move Clase, it’d be largely driven by the belief that Smith would be an elite closer in his own right. It’s even tougher to see them pulling the trigger on a Smith deal when he’ll play for barely above the league minimum for the next year and a half. The Guardians have a few lower-profile relievers (e.g. Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski) who could also draw some attention. They’d certainly listen on veteran righty and impending free agent Paul Sewald, but he just landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain that could keep him out beyond the deadline.

An openness to discussing Clase and Smith doesn’t signify that Cleveland is a guaranteed seller. They’re 4.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot. They have one of the easiest second-half schedules of any team, including four series against clubs with losing records (A’s, Orioles, Royals and Rockies) up to the deadline. There’s a path to getting back in the race and hoping that an excellent back of the bullpen can return them to the ALCS and beyond.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Guardians’ Luis Ortiz Placed On Leave Due To “Ongoing League Investigation”

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July 18: The league and the the MLBPA have jointly agreed to extend Ortiz’s leave through Aug. 31. The investigation is still ongoing.

July 3, 11:00am: Zack Meisel and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the investigation pertains to gambling.

9:35am: Guardians right-hander Luis Ortiz has been placed on non-disciplinary paid  leave through the All-Star break due to an “ongoing league investigation,” according to announcements from both the team and the league. The leave was jointly agreed upon by the league and the Players Association. The Guardians’ statement noted that they are not permitted to comment further at this time. Neither the league nor the team provided specific details on the nature of the investigation.

Ortiz, 26, is in his first season with Cleveland after coming over from the Pirates in exchange for first baseman Spencer Horwitz. He stepped right into the Guardians’ rotation and has started 16 games, tossing 88 2/3 innings with a 4.36 ERA, a 25.1% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate.

Ortiz had been slated to start tonight’s game for Cleveland, but left-hander Joey Cantillo will make that start instead. He’ll join a rotation also including Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi. The Guardians lost righty Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery earlier this season, while longtime ace Shane Bieber’s return from last year’s Tommy John procedure was slowed by a minor setback. Bieber recently resumed throwing.

MLBTR Podcast: Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which 2025 All-Star hitter and pitcher are most likely to be traded ahead of the deadline? (29:50)
  • Will the Red Sox trade an outfielder to upgrade another part of the roster? Could they get Joe Ryan from the Twins? What should Boston do with Tanner Houck? (36:15)
  • Could the Padres trade Dylan Cease and still compete, the way the Tigers flipped Jack Flaherty and still made the playoffs last year? What will the Friars add at the deadline? (51:50)
  • How will the Mets use Clay Holmes the rest of the way? (59:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up – listen here
  • Depleted Mets’ Pitching, The Pirates Are Open For Business, And More! – listen here
  • The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Guardians Place Paul Sewald On Injured List

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The Guardians placed right-hander Paul Sewald on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain, reports Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. The move is retroactive to July 12, and a corresponding transaction has not yet been announced by the club. It’s not clear how long Sewald is expected to be out.

It’s the second time this season that the 35-year-old Sewald has been placed on the injured list due to a strain in his throwing shoulder. The former D-backs and Mariners closer signed a one-year, $7MM deal with Cleveland in free agency and struggled for much of April before heading to the IL for what would wind up being a stay of more than two months. Sewald was only reinstated from the injured list on July 5, but it seems his return will only last for a week.

In his limited time with the Guardians, Sewald has pitched to a 4.70 ERA with terrific strikeout and walk rates of 29% and 6.5%, respectively. That’s all come in a sample of just 15 1/3 innings. Sewald allowed eight runs in 11 2/3 innings prior to his original IL stint (6.17 ERA) and returned with 3 2/3 shutout frames before now heading back to the 15-day IL. He’s been more homer-prone than usual in that small sample (1.76 HR/9) and has seen his fastball velocity dip from an average of 91.4 mph last year to just 90.3 mph this season.

Sewald has never thrown particularly hard, but his velocity has been in a steady decline in recent seasons. He averaged a career-best 92.5 mph in 2022 but dipped to 92.2 mph, 91.4 mph and 90.3 mph in subsequent seasons. His swinging-strike rate has dropped accordingly in each season, though he’s still managed to continue posting strong strikeout rates.

Sewald’s placement on the injured list just over two weeks before the trade deadline is increasingly notable, given his team’s recent slide in the standings. The Guardians dropped 10 straight games from June 27 through July 6, though they lessened some of that sting by closing out the first half with six wins in seven games. They’re now three games under .500 and four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

Cleveland will open the second half with winnable series against the A’s, Orioles, Royals and Rockies — all of whom have records that are comparable to or worse than the Guardians’ own mark of 46-49. If the Guards slip further down the standings, they’d be increasingly likely to listen to offers on short-term veterans like Sewald. If he’s facing a notable absence, that scenario is off the table. Conversely, if the Guardians slice through that slate of opponents in the two weeks between now and the trade deadline, they’d presumably be more apt to add to the club, and Sewald’s absence could increase the front office’s desire to add to the bullpen.

Which Other Draft Picks Are Eligible To Be Traded Before Sunday?

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The Rays made an “early” strike in deadline season yesterday, shipping off their Competitive Balance Round A selection (No. 37 overall) in Sunday’s draft to acquire righty Bryan Baker from the division-rival Orioles. Baker, 30, has had his two worst outings of the season in his final Orioles appearance and last night’s Rays debut — which came just hours after he was “shocked” to learn he was traded and boarded a last-minute flight to meet his new team in Boston — but carried a 2.58 ERA and 33.3% strikeout rate through July 5. He comes to the Rays with three additional seasons of club control, as well.

Following the trade, O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged that Thursday’s trade was “earlier than my comfort level” but that the timing of the draft and strength of the return pushed him to make a deal sooner than he’d have preferred (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). It’s feasible that other general managers/president of baseball operations feel similar pressure if presented with opportunities to add an extra pick over the next two-plus days.

As a refresher, Competitive Balance picks are the only picks in the annual amateur draft that are eligible to be traded. They can only be traded one time, meaning the pick the Orioles received for Baker — and the picks the Dodgers, Guardians and Red Sox received in trades of Gavin Lux, Josh Naylor and Quinn Priester, respectively — are now locked in place for those clubs. There are still a handful of selections that could be traded, however.

Here’s a rundown of the picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B. MLBTR has confirmed via industry sources that the picks held by the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets in Round A are ineligible to be traded, as they’re technically first-round picks that were dropped down into Competitive Balance Round A as penalty for exceeding the luxury tax by more than $40MM. Similarly, the picks held by the Rays and Brewers in Round B are ineligible to be traded due to the fact that they are compensation for failing to sign last year’s picks in Competitive Balance Round B. Picks that are eligible to be traded are in bold; those ineligible to be moved are in strikethrough font. The deadline to trade any of these eligible picks is 4pm ET on Sunday — two hours prior to the start of this year’s amateur draft.

Round A

  • No. 33 overall: Red Sox (acquired from Brewers in exchange for RHP Quinn Priester)
  • No. 34: Tigers
  • No. 35: Mariners
  • No. 36: Twins
  • No. 37: Orioles (acquired from Rays in exchange for RHP Bryan Baker)
  • No. 38: Mets
  • No. 39: Yankees
  • No. 40: Dodgers
  • No. 41: Dodgers (acquired from Reds in exchange for INF/OF Gavin Lux)
  • No. 42: Rays (acquired from A’s in exchange for LHPs Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez)
  • No. 43: Marlins

Round B

  • No. 66 overall: Guardians
  • No. 67: Rays (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 68: Brewers (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 69: Orioles
  • No. 70: Guardians (acquired from D-backs in exchange for 1B Josh Naylor)
  • No. 71: Royals
  • No. 72: Cardinals
  • No. 73: Pirates
  • No. 74: Rockies

The Tigers are the only clear buyer with a pick that can be traded, and it’s a prominent one. The Mariners and Cardinals are only one game out of a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues. Seattle is expected to act as a buyer and has been on the hunt for corner infield bats and late-inning bullpen help. The Royals (3.5 games), Twins (4) and Guardians (5) are all within five games of a Wild Card spot.

Fans would largely welcome the advent of additional selections becoming eligible to be traded, but that’s not in the cards for now. MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer joined Foul Territory earlier this week and told hosts Scott Braun, Erik Kratz and A.J. Pierzynski that the union is in favor of trading draft picks and has unsuccessfully raised the issue in past waves of collective bargaining (video link, draft pick talk coming around the one hour, 12-minute mark).

“This union has consistently been in favor of teams being able to trade draft picks,” said Meyer. “It would help competition. We think it would help small-market teams that have those valuable draft picks. They should have the flexibility to trade them if it’s in the best interest of the team. I think many teams would agree, but the league for whatever reason has, to date, been against allowing clubs the ability to trade Rule 4 [amateur] draft picks. We proposed it last time. It was rejected. I don’t want to commit to much for the next round of bargaining, but I feel pretty confident we’ll propose that again, because we think it’s actually beneficial to competitive balance.”

It should be noted that virtually any proposal in collective bargaining comes with some give and take. Meyer’s comments only portray one side of the discussion, and it’s not clear whether anything else was attached to that proposal. Regardless, it’s notable that the union’s lead negotiator has signaled a desire to again broach the subject of draft pick trades when the two sides return to the table to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.

Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

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The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.

As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.

The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.

Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.

Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.

Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.

For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.

But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.

Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.

That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.

Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.

Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.

Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.

Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.

Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.

That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.

If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.

It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.

Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images

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