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Brewers Grant Release To Jon Duplantier To Pursue NPB Opportunity

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The Brewers have granted right-hander Jon Duplantier his release so that he can pursue an opportunity with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

Duplantier, 30, inked a minor league deal with Milwaukee back in November and had been slated to compete for a job in spring training. It would seem that the opportunity overseas presented itself between the completion of that deal and today’s news, and the Brewers opted not to stand in the way of Duplantier’s guaranteed payday in NPB.

A former third-round pick and consensus top-100 prospect, Duplantier has only pitched in parts of two big league seasons: 2019 and 2021. Both came with the D-backs, who originally selected him in the 2016 draft. Duplantier held his own through 36 2/3 innings as a rookie in ’19 but was bombarded for 19 runs in only 13 innings in ’21. He’s posted a 6.70 ERA in 49 2/3 innings, striking out 19.7% of opponents against an 11.2% walk rate.

That was quite some time ago now. More recently, Duplantier dominated for the independent American Association’s Lake Country DockHounds in 2024, posting 18 scoreless frames with a 30-to-6 K/BB ratio. He parlayed that into Triple-A looks with the Dodgers and Mets, pitching to a combined 4.20 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and grisly 16.1% walk rate in 65 2/3 innings of minor league work. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Duplantier has a 4.85 ERA with similar strikeout and walk rates to the ones he notched in 2024.

Yankees Acquire Devin Williams For Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin

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The Winter Meetings might be done, but the big trades aren’t. The Yankees and Brewers on Friday agreed to a trade sending star closer Devin Williams to New York in exchange for left-hander Nestor Cortes, infield prospect Caleb Durbin and a reported $2MM in cash.

Both Williams and Cortes are entering their final seasons of club control, and both were projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in 2025. Milwaukee will still come out ahead a couple million dollars, which is of some moderate note, as the Brewers are working on an extremely tight budget this winter. Durbin, meanwhile, is a second baseman with experience at the hot corner. He was added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline and is likely to slot in at second or third base in 2025, with one of Brice Turang or Joey Ortiz moving to shortstop in place of Willy Adames, who signed with the Giants as a free agent.

Williams, 30, is one of the game’s elite relievers. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year, he boasts a career 1.83 earned run average with 68 saves, 60 holds, a 39.4% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in his big league career. Command has been an issue at times (11.8% walk rate), but Williams’ utterly devastating changeup — nicknamed the “Airbender” — is one of the most dominant pitches in the entire sport. He’s finished off 2299 big league plate appearances with that pitch, during which opponents have posted a comically feeble .139/.223/.200. The pitch boasts a preposterous 23% swinging-strike rate.

Among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2019, Emmanuel Clase (1.67) is the only pitcher with a better ERA than Williams’ 1.83 mark. No other pitcher is within even 40 points. (Jacob deGrom is next, at 2.24.) In that same time, only Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz have posted higher strikeout rates than Williams’ 39.4%. Only Gerrit Cole has a higher mark in terms of win probability added. Hader is second in WPA among relievers, but his 12.46 mark isn’t close to Williams’ 14.24. Sports Info Solutions credits Williams’ changeup as far and away the most valuable pitch of its type in the majors.

Dominant as Williams has been, he’ll come to the Yankees with some recent injury concerns. A stress fracture in his lower back caused the right-hander to miss the first four months of the 2024 season. Williams wasn’t activated for his 2024 debut until July 28. Once healthy, he generally looked like his dominant self, rattling off 21 2/3 innings with a microscopic 1.25 ERA, a massive 43.2% strikeout rate and an unsightly 12.5% walk rate (that was largely mitigated by his near-unparalleled ability to rack up strikeouts). Of course, the lasting memory for many fans will unfortunately be the backbreaking three-run homer that Williams surrendered to Pete Alonso in Milwaukee’s NLDS loss to the Mets.

Similarly, one of Cortes’ final moments as a Yankee is one he’d like to forget. The left-hander served up a walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of the World Series — the first of four Gibson-esque home runs the hobbled L.A. first baseman swatted en route to World Series MVP honors. As with Williams, there are some notable 2024 health concerns; Cortes gutted his way through a late-season flexor strain to return to the Yankees in the postseason. Cortes was also limited to 12 starts in 2023, thanks to a strain in his rotator cuff. Clearly, both clubs are satisfied with the medical reports on the veterans they’re acquiring.

Cortes, who just turned 30, has been a rock-solid mid-rotation arm when healthy in recent seasons. Dating back to his 2021 breakout with the Yankees, he’s pitched 489 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. The ERA is skewed by the 4.97 mark he logged in ’23 when dealing with that shoulder strain, but Cortes has been quite effective in three of the past four seasons.

In 2024, Cortes pitched a career-high 174 1/3 innings while sitting a career-best 92.1 mph with his four-seamer. The lefty fanned 22.8% of his opponents and notched a career-best 5.5% walk rate. If he can deliver anything close to that, the Brewers will surely be thrilled. Adding to the rotation was a significant need for the Brewers this offseason, but they’ve been operating with minimal resources as they try to find creative ways to do so.

Cortes will give Milwaukee an experienced arm to slot in behind Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff (returning from 2023 shoulder surgery), Aaron Civale and diamond-in-the-rough Tobias Myers. The Brewers also have lefties Aaron Ashby and DL Hall as rotation candidates, plus young righties Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick on the 40-man roster but likely ticketed for Triple-A.

With a full, healthy season, there’s a chance Cortes is a more valuable pitcher on the whole than Williams. He’s been worth about 10 wins above replacement over the past four seasons, per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs (even when accounting for his poor showing in an injury-marred 2023 season). For the Yankees, however, he was no more than sixth or seventh on the depth chart — not with Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman all on the roster.

For the Yankees, the deal is about not only beefing up their bullpen during the regular season but more specifically about bolstering their postseason roster, where Williams would be a focal piece and Cortes would be relegated to a lower-leverage relief role. In that sense, there are some parallels with the 2022 Jordan Montgomery/Harrison Bader swap: ship out a starter who’s not in the playoff rotation in exchange for someone who’ll have greater impact on postseason results. In the end, the trade involves both teams dealing from areas of strength.

The Milwaukee bullpen, after all, was one of the best in baseball last season — even in a year where Williams missed two-thirds of the year. The Brewers’ collective 3.11 bullpen ERA ranked second in the sport, and they were top-10 in terms of FIP (3.78, seventh), walk rate (8.3%, ninth) and K-BB% (15.5, tenth). With Williams out of the picture, they’ll likely look to Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA, 27.3 K%), Joel Payamps (3.05 ERA, 25.1 K%) and Bryan Hudson (1.73 ERA, 26.8 K%) for late-inning work. The previously mentioned Ashby (1.37 ERA, 36.8 K%, 19 1/3 innings) and Hall (3.00 ERA, 26.5 K%, 12 innings) also looked impressive when working as relievers.

The other major piece of the puzzle for the Brewers, of course, is the 24-year-old Durbin. Milwaukee lost Adames to free agency this offseason and has been in search of infield help but with scant money to spend. Durbin could slot in at second or third base, with one of Ortiz or Turang sliding over to shortstop. He could also simply give the Brewers a versatile utility option with intriguing contact skills and speed.

Durbin, who came to the Yankees from the Braves in exchange for Lucas Luetge, spent the bulk of the 2024 season in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes/Barre. He missed more than two months after being hit by a pitch on the wrist in May, but when he was healthy he was quite impressive. An infielder from the Altuve mold, Durbin is listed at just 5’6″ but nevertheless hit .287/.396/.471 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers and 31 stolen bases in 82 Triple-A games (375 plate appearances). He walked more than he struck out, drawing a free pass in 12.5% of his plate appearances versus a 9.9% strikeout rate.

With Durbin having missed a notable chunk of the season, the Yankees sent him to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some extra reps. He thrived there, hitting .312/.427/.548 with another five home runs and an AFL-record 29 stolen bases in 24 games (117 plate appearances). As he did in Triple-A, Durbin recorded more walks (17) than strikeouts (six).

Durbin has yet to take a single big league plate appearance, but the success he’s had in Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League — coupled with the Brewers’ needs in the infield — give him a legitimate chance to break camp with the club. He might need to earn his way into a starting gig this spring, and his ultimate role will depend on any subsequent moves the Brewers make, but he’s very clearly an option to help the club in 2025. As it stands, he’s controllable through at least the 2030 season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Yankees and Brewers were finalizing a Williams trade. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the deal was in place. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Cortes was in the deal. Durbin’s inclusion was first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reported that there was cash in the deal, and Nightengale chimed in with the exact amount.

Brewers Sign Grant Wolfram To Major League Deal

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The Brewers have agreed to a major league contract with free-agent lefty Grant Wolfram, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (X link). He’s already passed his physical. It’s a nice birthday present former 18th-rounder, who’ll turn 28 on Thursday. Wolfram is a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.

A towering 6’8″ southpaw, Wolfram is being added to a 40-man roster for the first time in his career. He’s pitched exclusively in the Rangers organization to this point, logging parts of three seasons in Double-A and another two in Triple-A.

Wolfram was hit hard in his Triple-A debut in 2023 but excelled with the Rangers’ top affiliate in Round Rock this past season. In 56 2/3 innings, Wolfram posted a 3.34 ERA with a sharp 25.6% strikeout rate. His 10.9% walk rate is notably higher than league-average, but Wolfram has typically missed bats at strong levels and, over the past couple seasons, has seen an uptick in grounders. He kept the ball on the ground at a 44.6% rate in 2024.

An 18th-rounder who signed for an $85K bonus out of Division-II Davenport University in Michigan, Wolfram has spent parts of seven seasons in pro ball but has yet to reach the majors. Now that he’s on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, he’ll have a good chance to do just that in the coming season. While it’s not common for career minor leaguers with no big league experience to sign major league contracts, it’s certainly not unheard of. There tend to be a handful of contracts along these lines every offseason, with Kyle Finnegan standing as one of the more prominent recent examples.

The Brewers aren’t exactly lacking in left-handed bullpen options, but Wolfram gives them some further depth. At the moment, Milwaukee has Jared Koenig, Bryan Hudson, Tyler Jay, DL Hall and Aaron Ashby all on the 40-man roster. Hall and Ashby could be ticketed for rotation work, however, and Jay is more of a depth arm who’s not a lock to survive the entire offseason on the 40-man roster himself. Since Wolfram is being added to a big league roster for the first time, he’ll have a full slate of minor league options, giving Milwaukee plenty of flexibility with him for the next few years.

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Dodgers Interested In Devin Williams, Tanner Scott

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10:54PM: At least 10 teams have checked in with the Brewers about Williams, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, including the Dodgers and Yankees.  With this much interest in the closer, there is a sense that the Brewers might wait until later in the offseason to deal Williams (if at all), since they could land a bigger return once the free agent relief market clears out.

4:51PM: The ever-aggressive Dodgers are looking for high-leverage relief help, and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Devin Williams and Tanner Scott are two of the names under consideration as L.A. weighs options in both free agency and the trade market.

Williams is eligible for free agency next winter, and there has been speculation that Milwaukee will once again look to move a notable player in advance of a trip to the open market so that the Brewers can recoup more than just draft compensation.  The closer is projected for a $7.7MM arbitration salary, as Williams’ numbers last season were limited by a stress reaction in his back that kept him off the mound until late July.

Despite the long layoff, Williams still looked like himself upon his return, posting a 1.25 ERA in 21 2/3 innings while racking up 14 saves.  It is possible rival teams could still point to the back injury as a reason to limit their offers for Williams, not to mention the fact that even an elite reliever has somewhat limited trade value with just one year of remaining control.

This all being said, Williams has such an outstanding track record that the Brewers will likely be able to hold firm on a high asking price.  Williams has excelled in both a set-up and closing role basically since he debuted in the majors in 2019, with a 1.83 ERA and a preposterous 39.4% strikeout rate over his 235 2/3 career innings.  His 11.8% career walk rate is on the high side and memories of his blown save in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series will linger for a long time in Milwaukee, but overall, Williams is the type of pitcher any team would want at the back of their bullpen.

Los Angeles has plenty of young talent to offer Milwaukee in a potential trade, and some of the Dodgers’ MLB-ready young pitching could be of particular interest.  Dealing away some of this depth might be preferable since the Dodgers have already dipped into the free agent market for Blake Snell, Michael Conforto, and Blake Treinen this offseason….or L.A. could make another splash by inking Scott to a long-term contract.

MLBTR ranked Scott as the best reliever in this year’s free agent class, and 14th overall on our list of the top 50 free agents.  This designation came with a prediction of a four-year, $56MM contract, and such a deal is certainly feasible for a Dodgers team that clearly isn’t shy about spending.  As Ardaya notes, L.A. was one of the many teams interested in Scott prior to the trade deadline, before the Marlins sent him to another NL West contender in the Padres.

Scott has always had plenty of strikeout power, but things didn’t fully click for him until the 2023 season.  Over the last two years, Scott has a 2.04 ERA, 31.3% strikeout rate, and 10% walk rate in 150 innings with Miami and San Diego, with just six home runs allowed and a 50.4% grounder rate.  Like Williams, control is a bit of an issue for Scott, yet the premium stuff is clearly there.

Brewers Reportedly “Engaged” In Garrett Crochet Market

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Reporting yesterday indicated that the market for White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet has started to heat up, with an increasing chance that a deal could come together at some point during the Winter Meetings this week. The Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, and Reds are among the suitors who have previously been mentioned, but Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork added an additional suitor this morning when he reported that the Brewers are among the teams who remain engaged with Chicago regarding Crochet.

Milwaukee is an intriguing suitor for Crochet’s services. While the club typically focuses on internal development and savvy free agent deals in the middle and lower tiers of free agency in order to sustain their status as perennial contenders, the Brewers have swung trades for notable players such as Willy Adames and Christian Yelich in the past. Adames, of course, just signed with the Giants after declining a Qualifying Offer from the club, but Yelich went on to become a franchise stalwart who is under contract in Milwaukee through the end of the 2028 season. While Crochet comes with just two years of team control as opposed to the three-and-a-half and five years of control Adames and Yelich respectively had remaining at the time of their deals, the Brewers are firmly in the midst of their competitive window and have plenty of reason to be aggressive.

The club has weathered the losses of stars like Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Josh Hader in recent years that have left them facing increased long-term uncertainty, and with groups of exciting young talent in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Chicago reaching the majors it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Milwaukee’s recent dominance over the NL Central comes to an end within the next few years. Adding a player with Crochet’s upside to a rotation that already figures to feature Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta this winter could be a way for the Brewers to guarantee their competitive window remains firmly open in 2025, and do so at a relatively affordable financial cost. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Crochet to make just $2.9MM in his penultimate trip through arbitration this winter. That’s a salary any club could afford, including the budget-conscious Brew Crew.

Of course, a trade for Crochet would come with plenty of risks. The southpaw managed just 146 innings in 2024 after two lost seasons due to injury and has never shown himself to be capable of handling a full starter’s workload at the MLB level; while he started 32 games in 2024, 17 of those starts lasted less than five innings. Even setting aside those volume- and health-related concerns, trading significant prospect capital for a player who wouldn’t be under long-term team control may be a difficult pill to swallow. While prospects like Jeferson Quero and Jacob Misiorowski could be used to create an enticing package for Chicago, the Brewers lack the high-end talent other suitors like the Padres (Ethan Salas), Red Sox (Marcelo Mayer), and Cubs (Matt Shaw) may be able to offer.

Of course, the prospect capital lost in a hypothetical Crochet trade could be made up for in other ways. The Brewers could pull from the playbook San Diego ultimately wound up using with Juan Soto and slot Crochet into their rotation for a year before flipping him next winter. It’s even possible that could land the club a return somewhat comparable to what they gave up if Crochet is able to stay healthy and establish himself as capable of pitching a wire-to-wire big league season on a starter’s workload this year. Alternatively, it’s at least plausible that Milwaukee could explore extension talks with Crochet that would keep him in town for longer than his two years of team control, though it’s unclear whether or not the club would have room on their books for the sort of salary Crochet could command given that any extension would overlap with the final years of Yelich’s deal.

Looking For A Match In A Devin Williams Trade

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Although he’s coming off an injury-shortened 2024 season, there is little doubt that Devin Williams remains an elite closer. Upon his mid-season return from a back injury, Williams looked every bit as dominant as he did in his All-Star 2022 and ‘23 campaigns. Over 21 1/3 innings, the righty pitched to a 1.25 ERA and 2.31 SIERA, striking out 38 of the 88 batters he faced. As he enters his age-30 season, his career 1.83 ERA, 39.4% strikeout rate, and 68 saves in 78 chances tell you everything you need to know about why he could be such a valuable trade chip for the Brewers this offseason.

In October, Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters that he had to be “open-minded” about potentially trading Williams. He made similar comments in November, saying, “Certainly we have to be open to those types of things, but I think he makes our team better” (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). Those words suggest Arnold isn’t actively shopping his closer, but his reluctance to shut down the idea speaks volumes. After all, Milwaukee has earned a reputation for trading star pitchers at least one year before they reach free agency. Back when Arnold worked under former president of baseball operations David Stearns, they dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline. More recently, Arnold oversaw the swap that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Thanks to an excellent pitching development pipeline, the team has managed to stay competitive despite these trades. Thus, it would hardly be surprising if Williams is wearing a different uniform come Opening Day 2025.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked the Top 35 Trade Candidates of the offseason, he put Williams at no. 4, behind only White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, and Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. The fact that Williams ranked behind Helseley was partially because the latter seemed more likely to be dealt. However, recent reports suggest the Cardinals are unlikely to trade Helsley this winter after all. That should only invigorate the market for a pitcher like Williams. If Helsley is staying put, Williams is undeniably the top reliever on the trade market. 

What’s more, former Yankees closer Clay Holmes is off the free agent market after signing with the Mets to become a starting pitcher. Holmes was MLBTR’s third-highest-ranked free agent reliever this offseason. Meanwhile, MLBTR’s second-highest-ranked free agent reliever, Jeff Hoffman, has also drawn interest as a potential starter. In other words, the market for top-end, right-handed relievers is already starting to thin out.

Thus, if the Brewers trade Williams, they should be able to land a strong return commensurate with his value. At the same time, he won’t bring back quite as much young talent as Burnes (a former Cy Young winner) or Hader (who had an extra half-season of team control), so just about every interested party should have the necessary trade chips to make a compelling offer. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a return for Williams would “ideally” include a young starter, though if the Brewers are really keeping an open mind, they might be open to various return packages.

Let’s take a closer look at which teams could trade for Williams this winter:

Clear Fits

Blue Jays: From 2021-23, the Blue Jays had one of the better closers in baseball: homegrown Canadian righty Jordan Romano. However, things quickly tumbled downhill for Romano in 2024, and the rest of Toronto’s relief corps followed suit. No AL bullpen had a worse ERA, a higher home run rate, or a lower strikeout rate. The Jays are thought to be interested in re-signing Romano, but that shouldn’t preclude them from looking for a more reliable closer. Indeed, they were reportedly considering signing Holmes (as a reliever) before he ultimately landed with the Mets. Adding Williams would go a long way to help revamp one of the worst bullpens in the league.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have a strong group of arms at the back end of their bullpen, but none with significant closing experience. Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Ryan Thompson are all coming off strong seasons. Still, GM Mike Hazen said earlier this offseason that he’d prefer to have another back-end arm to help them out, suggesting his team was at its best when capital-C closer Paul Sewald was the ninth inning guy. Hazen could be dealing with some financial constraints this winter as he tries to replace Sewald, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and more without significantly increasing payroll. So, adding Williams, whose projected $7.7MM salary is well below open market value, could be a particularly appealing move.

Phillies: The Phillies bullpen lost two high-leverage right-handers to free agency this offseason: Hoffman and Carlos Estévez. POBO Dave Dombrowski has made it clear he’s looking to add at least one righty arm to the back end of the bullpen to replace the talent he lost. That could mean bringing back Hoffman (the Phillies have reportedly shown interest in such a reunion) or targeting another free agent like Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, or Blake Treinen. After all, this team has largely preferred to flex its financial muscle rather than part with prospects to acquire star talent. However, Dombrowski has repeatedly suggested he will look to get more creative this winter. Could the Phillies and Brewers line up on a swap involving Williams and fellow trade candidate Alec Bohm?

Rangers: The Rangers arm barn is in a rough spot right now. After finishing among the AL’s bottom five bullpens in most statistical categories in 2024, Texas lost Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña to free agency. POBO Chris Young should have some money to spend this winter, but as he aims to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold, he won’t be able to throw out numerous big-money contracts as he’s done in the past. That could make an arbitration-eligible arm like Williams quite appealing. 

Royals: Lucas Erceg stepped up for the Royals after the trade deadline, putting up a 2.88 ERA over 25 innings and blossoming into the closer his new team desperately needed. Yet, Erceg’s success doesn’t mean the Royals can’t look for an upgrade at the back of the bullpen. As dominant as he looked down the stretch in 2024, he’s hardly the most experienced or reliable arm. He’ll enter his age-30 season with just 116 2/3 MLB innings under his belt and a career 4.01 ERA and 3.52 SIERA. As the Royals look to compete for the AL Central title in 2025, a bona fide closer like Williams would make for a terrific addition to the squad.

Tigers: The Tigers have a few options to close in 2025, most notably Tyler Holton, who has quietly been one of the best relievers in the game over the past two seasons. Still, no one has a lock on the closer role in Detroit, and the right-handed Williams would make an excellent complement to the southpaw Holton. Now that the Tigers are officially contenders, a proven closer like Williams is the kind of luxury they can afford as they strive to go on a deeper postseason run in 2025.

Yankees: Luke Weaver certainly earned the right to slot into the closer role for the Yankees at the end of the 2024 season and into the playoffs. At the same time, he doesn’t have a ton of late-inning relief experience, and New York might prefer to use him in a variable, multi-inning role. The Yankees made a huge splash on the trade market when they acquired Juan Soto last offseason, and they could do so again by scooping up Williams. After losing in the World Series, the Bronx Bombers are surely going to be hungry for talent — especially if they can’t re-sign Soto.

More Potential Fits

Dodgers: These days, it seems like you just can’t rule the Dodgers out on anyone. Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech both have what it takes to close for the reigning World Series champions, but neither is without his question marks. Phillips missed the World Series with a shoulder injury, while Kopech’s success in L.A. came in a pretty small sample size. With so few holes to fill on their roster, could the Dodgers look to add a superstar closer to make their super team even more super?

Giants: Following his breakout performance in 2024, Ryan Walker has the inside track on the Giants’ closer job in 2025. That said, he’s hardly a lock for the gig. New POBO Buster Posey is looking to build a legitimate postseason contender this offseason, and a closer like Williams would give the Giants more security at the end of ballgames.

Padres: After trading for Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at last summer’s trade deadline, the Padres stuck with Robert Suarez in the closer role. That’s a pretty clear indication of how much this team values Suarez, who pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 3.53 SIERA while recording 36 saves in 42 chances in 2024. That makes a trade for Williams, who would almost surely usurp Suarez as the closer, seem unlikely. Then again, Padres POBO A. J. Preller loves to pull off blockbuster swaps, and he’ll be looking for some way to replace Scott’s excellent production out of the bullpen. 

Division Rivals

The Cubs, Pirates, and Reds could all use a reliable closer. Porter Hodge was terrific for Chicago in his rookie season, but a team with legitimate postseason aspirations needs a more proven arm to anchor the bullpen. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (Alexis Díaz) and Pittsburgh (David Bednar) both have more experienced closers, but neither pitcher had a strong 2024 campaign. There is no doubt that Williams would make all three of these teams significantly more competitive in 2025.

However, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Brewers sending Williams to a division rival. After all, it’s not as if they’d be trading him as part of a rebuilding effort. The Brewers are the reigning NL Central champions, and they’re looking to retain that crown in 2025. That will be hard enough with Williams pitching anywhere else, let alone for one of their closest competitors.

Longer Shots

Williams is such a special talent that there aren’t many teams one can completely rule out of the trade sweepstakes. The Red Sox are likely out of the running after signing Aroldis Chapman, especially since they also have Liam Hendriks at the back of their bullpen. Similarly, the Orioles (Félix Bautista), Mets (Edwin Díaz), Astros (Hader), Braves (Raisel Iglesias), and Mariners (Andrés Muñoz) already have excellent pitchers entrenched in the closer role. Still, it’s not as if any of these contenders wouldn’t be able to make room for Williams. Figuring out how to split time between two star closers is the kind of problem any manager would love to have, and adding Williams would immediately turn any of these bullpens into one of the best in the league. 

Brewers Sign Jared Oliva, Jon Duplantier To Minor League Deals

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The Brewers are signing outfielder Jared Oliva and right-hander Jon Duplantier to minor league contracts, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Both players will get non-roster invitations to big league camp.

Oliva, who turns 29 tomorrow, got a brief big league look with the Pirates. The Arizona product appeared in 26 games for the Bucs between 2020-21. He hit .179/.220/.214 in that minimal sample. He spent the ’23 season in Triple-A with the Angels, struggling to a .261/.348/.423 slash in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Oliva dropped back a level this year, as he spent the season in Double-A after signing a minor league contract with the Mariners.

The righty-swinging Oliva posted good numbers in the Texas League. He turned in a robust .294/.378/.463 slash while going 37-40 in stolen base attempts. He’s quite a bit older than the average Double-A player, but he showed enough to earn a camp invite from Milwaukee. Oliva can play all three outfield positions and could open next season with Triple-A Nashville.

Duplantier has also been out of the majors for a few years. He earned some Top 100 fanfare during his prospect days in the Diamondbacks’ system. Duplantier has yet to find any major league success, however. The 6’4″ hurler owns a 6.70 earned run average across 49 2/3 big league innings. He last suited up at the MLB level in 2021.

The Rice product split the ’24 campaign between the Mets’ and Dodgers’ systems, along with four starts in the independent American Association. He started seven of 23 appearances in the upper minors, turning in a 4.20 ERA with a strong 27.4% strikeout rate but a massive 16.1% walk percentage over 55 2/3 innings.

Brewers, Thomas Pannone Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers agreed to a minor league deal with lefty Thomas Pannone, reports Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The BHSC client will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee to spring training in 2025.

It’ll be the second Brewers stint of Pannone’s career. He was also with the organization in 2023. While the 30-year-old’s broader track record in Triple-A doesn’t necessarily stand out, he’s been sharp against non-MLB competition in recent seasons. Pannone tossed 53 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with the Brewers’ Triple-A club in 2023, and he also spent parts of the 2022-23 seasons with the KBO’s Kia Tigers, pitching to a combined 3.49 ERA in 165 innings across those two seasons. Most recently, Pannone hurled 152 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball between the Triple-A affiliates for the Cubs and Yankees in 2024. He fanned 21.9% of opponents against a 5.9% walk rate this past season.

All of that should allow Pannone to head to camp with the Brewers and compete for a rotation spot or long relief role. He’s stretched out and built up, meaning workload wouldn’t be an issue if the Brewers need to utilize him as a starter between Nashville and Milwaukee. (Notably, he’s out of minor league options, so if he’s added to the 40-man at any point, he’d have to stick or else be placed on waivers.)

For a Brewers club that is currently light on rotation depth, adding a lefty who’s pitched well for the past three seasons in the upper minors and in the KBO makes good sense. At the moment, Milwaukee’s rotation likely includes Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff (likely on an innings limit after missing 2024 due to shoulder surgery), Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers and one of Aaron Ashby or DL Hall. That group could change, of course, depending on how the rest of the offseason plays out. Each of Myers, Ashby and Hall can be optioned. Civale has been a speculative trade candidate (as is the case with most Brewers veterans when they’re down to one final season of club control remaining). Lefty Robert Gasser could join the bunch late in 2025, but he’s recovering from UCL surgery performed in June.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/22/24

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The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Throughout the day, we’ll surely see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

  • The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
  • The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
  • The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
  • The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
  • The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
  • The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
  • The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
  • Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
  • The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
  • The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
  • The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
  • The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
  • The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
  • The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,
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