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Red Sox Unlikely To Trade Jarren Duran This Summer

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With a 55-49 record and a seat at the Wild Card table, the Red Sox have seemingly played themselves out of selling this summer even after trading former franchise face Rafael Devers to the Giants last month. There’s been plenty of speculation about the possibility that they could trade from their glut of outfield talent and move Jarren Duran, but it seems as though that might not be in the cards—for now, at least. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Red Sox might more or less stand pat this summer, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted that Boston is “believed” to be unlikely to move Duran despite considerable interest from the Padres.

Sean McAdam of MassLive provides further details on the situation surrounding Duran. He suggests that while a deal involving Duran is “likely” at some point, the Red Sox are inclined to hold off on making such a deal until the offseason. McAdam then goes on to note that the Padres offered Boston a three-player package of right-hander Dylan Cease, top catching prospect Ethan Salas, and an additional prospect not named Leo De Vries that was “quickly rejected.” That’s a fairly significant offer, particularly given the fact that the Red Sox had reportedly expressed interest in Cease previously in conversations with San Diego this summer.

Duran’s in the midst of a decent season but has taken a massive step back from his All-Star 2024 campaign that ended with an eighth place finish in a crowded NL MVP race. This year, Duran has hit just .254/.321/.428 with a wRC+ of 104 and below average defense in the outfield. While the Padres clearly still believe in the upside they saw when he put together a 6.8 fWAR, 8.7 bWAR season last year given their offer of a longtime top prospect and a front-of-the-rotation rental, it’s possible that the Red Sox are hoping for a strong second half from Duran that can raise his value headed into the offseason and potentially get the attention of other clubs besides San Diego.

Perhaps the Red Sox were willing to reject that offer from San Diego in part because the players they’d be acquiring are in the midst of down seasons themselves. Cease has long been viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitchers, but he’s posted a 4.59 ERA that’s actually 10% worse than league average by ERA+ across 21 starts this year. His peripheral numbers remain strong and some of his poor season-long numbers can be attributed to a nine-run, four-inning implosion at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento back in April. Even so, Cease doesn’t carry the same surefire ace pedigree he would have had even one season ago. Salas is in no better shape, having been sidelined by a stress fracture in his back for most of 2025 following a tough season at the High-A level last year.

While the Padres have been frequently connected to Duran for quite some time now, they’re far from the only team for whom he’d be an excellent fit. The Phillies have a major hole in left field, the Astros are in desperate need of a left-handed bat to help balance their lineup, the Royals are in clear need of help all around the outfield, and even non-contending clubs in need of offense like the Pirates could make sense as a suitor for Duran given that he won’t reach free agency until after the 2028 season. That’s hardly an exhaustive list of teams that could make sense as a fit for Duran, as his combination of upside and long period of team control could make him attractive for virtually any team that isn’t already stacked with outfield talent themselves.

Should The Padres Listen To Offers On Their All-Star Closer?

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Despite being deadline buyers, the Padres are hearing teams out on Dylan Cease. He’s an impending free agent who could theoretically allow them to acquire young talent they could flip for a more controllable starting pitcher or help elsewhere on the roster.

There’d be a similar logic for San Diego in entertaining offers on All-Star closer Robert Suarez. The 34-year-old righty is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract. He’s playing on a $10MM salary this year, around $3.2MM of which will be owed from the deadline through the end of the season. While that’s a bargain rate for a very good reliever, it’s not an insignificant amount for a team that had very little short-term payroll room all offseason.

San Diego reportedly fielded interest in Suarez throughout the offseason. They obviously didn’t find an offer to their liking. That was also the case for Cease but hasn’t stopped them from taking calls this summer. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested on Wednesday that the Padres could make Suarez available as well.

The Padres have a trio of high-end setup options in Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon. Rookie right-hander David Morgan has a 2.25 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents in his first 24 big league innings. Morgan doesn’t have any high-leverage experience, but he regularly hits 98 MPH with his fastball and has a plus curveball. He certainly has late-inning caliber stuff. If they were to trade Suarez, the Padres could give Morgan some more meaningful assignments while using Estrada or Adam in the ninth inning.

A trade would only make sense if the Padres get big league talent in return (either directly or by flipping some of the prospects to a third team). They need to add a left fielder and could be in the catching market. The rotation depth is questionable, especially with Yu Darvish struggling in his first four starts off the injured list. Their farm system isn’t strong beyond their top two prospects, Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas, whom they’re unlikely to move. Trading off the big league roster in some capacity seems likely — even though the conventional play would be to deal rookies like Morgan or starter Ryan Bergert for more established veterans.

Suarez leads MLB with 29 saves. He tallied 36 saves last season and carries a 3.46 ERA across 41 2/3 innings. Almost all of the damage has been confined to a pair of five-run disasters. Outside of those two appearances, he has allowed seven combined runs. 36 of his 44 appearances have been scoreless. Suarez has fanned nearly 27% of batters faced against a 7.3% walk rate. His opt-out clause could give some teams pause — the remaining $16MM in guarantees are pure downside for an acquiring club if he gets injured late in the season — but he’s affordable and effective enough that the Padres should find plenty of interest if they seriously considered making him available.

Blue Jays, Rays Among Teams Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

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Earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Padres had discussed Dylan Cease with multiple AL East teams in addition to the Mets and Cubs. It seems the interest from the AL East has come from every contending club in that division. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees have all checked in with the Friars to express interest.

The Cease rumors have picked up steam over the past few days. It’d be unconventional for a team that presently occupies the National League’s final playoff spot to trade one of its two best healthy starters. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings, though, and they’re seemingly considering the idea of trading Cease for young talent while reallocating payroll room and prospects to different available starters. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported last night that they’re among the teams that have been in touch with the Marlins regarding Sandy Alcantara, for instance.

Cease is an impending free agent who is playing on a $13.75MM salary. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Padres hold him all season. As a luxury tax payor, they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2026 draft. That’s worth far less than they’d receive if they traded him, though they need to balance that against the hit it’d deal to the rotation for the stretch run.

The 29-year-old Cease is incredibly durable and has pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level in previous seasons. His near-30% strikeout rate and 97 MPH average fastball still point to that ceiling, but he hasn’t managed particularly strong results this year. He carries a 4.59 earned run average across 113 2/3 innings. Some of that can be traced to a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the A’s in their extremely hitter-friendly park in Sacramento back in April. That’s hardly the sole factor, though. Cease got on a decent run after that outing but has allowed a 5.21 ERA over his most recent seven starts.

Even if this hasn’t been a banner year, Cease’s track record and stuff would make him an extremely desirable trade target. He’d be the best rental rotation arm available, and teams would still view him as a surefire playoff starter. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all known to be in the starting pitching market. New York has a strong 1-2 in Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, but Luis Gil is a health question mark and they lost Clarke Schmidt to Tommy John surgery. Boston would certainly benefit from adding another high-end starter to pair with Cease’s former White Sox teammate, Garrett Crochet. Toronto’s veteran-laden rotation lacks a true top-end starter, and they’ve already been tied to some of the higher upside trade candidates like Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller.

The Rays would be the most surprising entrant into this group, though Tampa Bay tends to at least kick the tires on big names even if they don’t often land them. They’re a game and a half back of Boston in the Wild Card race. They’d have little hope of re-signing Cease, and a big push for a rental when they’re a bubble team seems unlikely. Tampa Bay could trade a starter like Taj Bradley or Zack Littell in the coming days; they’re also hopeful of getting Shane McClanahan back in the final two months.

San Diego awaits the return of one of their own top starters. Michael King has been out for more than two months with a nerve injury in his shoulder. He’s targeting a mid-August comeback. As of now, he’d team with Cease, Nick Pivetta and potentially Yu Darvish in a playoff rotation. That’s not a terrible group, but both Cease and King are months from free agency. Pivetta can opt out after next season, and Darvish is approaching his 39th birthday. Even with Joe Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery next year, the long-term rotation picture is cloudy. They could try to thread the needle of acquiring a controllable arm while shipping Cease out.

Nick Ahmed Announces Retirement

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12-year MLB veteran Nick Ahmed has announced his retirement from baseball. Ahmed made the announcement on social media earlier today. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Ahmed played for the Diamondbacks, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Rangers during his time in the majors.

“For as long as I can remember, all I ever wanted to do was play baseball,” Ahmed said in his announcement. “I got to live out my childhood dream and play baseball for a very long time! After 15 professional seasons and more than a decade in the big leagues I am officially hanging up my spikes and retiring from playing baseball… I will always love the game of baseball. I am excited for my next chapter and the opportunity to give the best of me to this game we all love!”

The 35-year-old was a second-round pick by Atlanta back in 2011 out of the University of Connecticut. He was traded to Arizona as part of a package that brought back outfielder Justin Upton and infielder Chris Johnson prior to the 2013 season and made his big league debut with the Diamondbacks the following year. He made it into just 25 games that year, but in 2015 he took over for Didi Gregorius as the team’s regular shortstop. Ahmed’s .226/.275/.359 slash line (66 wRC+) in that rookie season wasn’t much to write home about, but he was a standout defender from the jump with +8 Defensive Runs Saved in his rookie season.

Injuries limited Ahmed to just 143 games across the 2016 and ’17 seasons, but he re-emerged in 2018 healthy enough to return to play on a regular basis. That age-28 season saw Ahmed reach his peak. His .234/.290/.411 (85 wRC+) slash line was still below average, but it was nonetheless a marked improvement over previous seasons. More impressive, however, was his growth defensively. Ahmed put up a defensive season for the ages in 2018, with an eye-popping +34 Outs Above Average and +25 Defensive Runs Saved. His glove was by far the most valuable of anyone in baseball that year—not just among shortstops, but at any position. Ahmed followed that brilliant performance up with one that was as good or better in 2019.

While his +17 OAA and +14 DRS weren’t quite as otherworldly as the prior season, they were still elite figures. This time, Ahmed’s strong defense was backed up by roughly league average offense, has he posted a 91 wRC+ and crushed a career-high 19 homers. Ahmed’s strong play continued into the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 96 wRC+ with his typical excellent defense. From 2018-2020, Ahmed’s 8.9 fWAR was ninth-best among all shortstops and clocked in ahead of players like Carlos Correa and fellow defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons.

Unfortunately for Ahmed, his offense would come crashing back to Earth in 2021, when he posted a 66 wRC+. While his defense remained elite, injuries in 2022 limited him to just 17 games. His offense fell even further in 2023, and come September his defensive value just wasn’t enough to justify his roster spot as the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment to make room for top prospect Jordan Lawlar on the roster and dedicate more playing time to shortstop of the future Geraldo Perdomo. Ahmed split the 2024 season between the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres and appeared in 71 games as a bench piece and injury replacement for his three longtime division rivals before wrapping up his career with a five-game stint as a member of the Rangers this year.

All together, Ahmed appeared in 964 games during his big league career with a .233/.286/.370 slash line. He collected +118 OAA since Statcast began tracking the stat in 2016, a figure that trails on Francisco Lindor across the stat’s history. He also finished his career with +80 DRS, good for 11th overall and second among shortstops since Ahmed made his debut during the 2014 season. MLBTR joins the rest of the baseball world in congratulating Ahmed on a fine career and wishes him all the best in whatever comes next.

Padres Among Teams Interested In Sandy Alcantara

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As the Padres gear up for a deadline that seems like it’ll see them operate on both the buying and selling side of the market, they’ve reached out to the Marlins to inquire about right-hander Sandy Alcantara, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

San Diego’s interest in Alcantara comes less than 24 hours after it was reported that they’ve been willing to discuss fellow righty Dylan Cease with other clubs. Lin adds that he’s heard similarly. Both right-handers have underperformed this season but feature strong track records and power arsenals. Shipping out an underperforming former Cy Young finalist to bring in an underperforming former Cy Young winner might seem like shuffling the deck chairs, but there’s typically a method to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s deadline madness.

Cease is earning $13.75MM in his final season of club control before reaching free agency. Alcantara is earning $17MM this season and is signed for the same amount in 2026, with a $21MM club option for the 2027 season. If the Padres were to trade Cease and acquire Alcantara, they would essentially be swapping out — not directly for one another, of course — two pitchers of comparable upside but coming away with the one who provides rotation stability beyond the current season.

As ever, there are roadblocks to be considered. The Padres’ baseball operations staff isn’t believed to have much financial flexibility at its disposal presently. That was a key driver in their frugal slate of offseason signings (e.g. Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Elias Diaz, Martin Maldonado, Jose Iglesias), and it’s also a factor in why they’re listening to offers on Cease in the first place.

Even if they were to trade Cease and the entirety of his remaining salary, turning and adding Alcantara would add about $1.153MM onto the current payroll — and do so at a time when the Padres are also looking for help in left field and behind the plate. That said, the Marlins were willing to pay down virtually all of Luis Arraez’s salary when they lined up with the Padres on a May 2024 trade. Doing so allowed Miami to ask for more talent in exchange and allowed the Padres to get the player they coveted even in the face of payroll constraints from ownership. They could try a similar path here.

That brings up a potentially even more prominent roadblock: a thin farm system. San Diego’s prospect cache has been repeatedly leveraged to acquire veteran players over the years and left the team with a top-heavy system. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are considered among the sport’s very best young talents. The Padres are ostensibly loath to part with either, and the rest of the system is less compelling.

Trading Cease could help in that regard. Even with the right-hander falling shy of his prior standards this season, he’s still averaging better than 97 mph on his heater and missing bats at an elite level. He’d surely command a notable return. It’s possible Cease could be swapped out for big league help at another position of need (e.g. the previously referenced left field or catcher), but a contending club would likely be reluctant to give the Padres a big league outfielder or catcher in exchange for a rental arm. A trade for prospects would be more straightforward, and because the Padres are a luxury tax payor, there’s incentive to move him rather than make a qualifying offer. Their CBT status would drop the compensation for Cease from a pick after the first round to a pick after the fourth.

Speculatively speaking, the Padres can look to find a trade partner for Cease while in the same breath using some of that return to help pry Alcantara loose from Miami. They could potentially even structure it as a three-team trade, though that’s not necessary. They went through a similar sequence in the 2023-24 offseason when trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a prospect package headlined by right-hander Drew Thorpe, only to turn and trade Thorpe to the White Sox a couple months later as part of the package to acquire Cease.

Adding Alcantara would be of extra importance to the Padres because of that remaining club control. Both Cease and Michael King are free agents at season’s end. Next year’s rotation outlook currently includes Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish (in his age-39 season), Joe Musgrove (in his return from Tommy John surgery) and some combination of Randy Vasquez, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert. Pivetta can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season.

Whether some form of Cease/Alcantara shell game comes to fruition or not, the mere fact that the Padres are looking into the possibility serves as a prominent reminder of the type of frenetic dealing that has become a hallmark of the Preller-led Padres this time of year. With several holes on the roster, a tight payroll and a farm system that could work against them, the stage appears to be set for another July of creative dealing from the Padres.

Draft Signings: Schoolcraft, Watson, Russell, Quick, Flemming, Root

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There were a handful of draftees who signed for between $2MM and $4MM on Wednesday. All signings were first reported by Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. View pre-draft scouting reports from Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic.

  • The Padres reached agreement with first-rounder Kruz Schoolcraft on a $3.6066MM bonus that matches the slot value for the #25 overall pick. A 6’8″ left-handed prep pitcher from Oregon, Schoolcraft was committed to Tennessee. Evaluators credit him with a potential plus changeup and the ability to run his fastball into the upper 90s on occasion, though his velocity varies between starts. Schoolcraft was a two-way player in high school and would have been a legitimate prospect as a first baseman, but scouts agree that he has greater upside on the mound. He placed between 19th and 41st on the linked pre-draft rankings.
  • The Reds went well above slot with a $2.75MM bonus for second-round pick Aaron Watson. The 51st overall selection comes with a slot value around $1.89MM. Watson is a 6’5″ prep right-hander who had been committed to Florida. He sits in the low-90s at present and has advanced command and feel for manipulating a potential above-average slider. The Reds saved a bit of money by going below slot for first-rounder Steele Hall, allowing them to reallocate some money to Watson.
  • The Rangers have a $2.6MM agreement with second-rounder A.J. Russell against an approximate $1.85MM slot value. A University of Tennessee product, he’s a 6’6″ righty who missed parts of the 2024-25 seasons recovering from elbow surgery. Russell had dominated as a reliever during his freshman year but only managed 70 innings in his college career. Evaluators suggest he has a potential mid-rotation ceiling, but he’ll face questions about his ability to stick as a starter until he builds more of a track record.
  • The Twins signed supplemental first-rounder Riley Quick for $2.692MM, matching the 36th selection’s slot value.  Quick is a 6’6″ righty from the University of Alabama with a power arsenal but a limited college track record because of Tommy John surgery.
  • The A’s signed second-round pick Devin Taylor. He’s an Indiana University product who hit .374/.494/.706 with 18 homers and 52 walks against 30 strikeouts in his draft year. The lefty-hitting Taylor is viewed as one of the best offensive players in the college class but projects as below-average left fielder who might be limited to designated hitter.
  • The Rays have an overslot deal with second-round pick Cooper Flemming. The California high school infielder receives a $2.2975MM bonus that comes in above the $1.8MM slot value. A left-handed hitter who was committed to Vanderbilt, Flemming ranked around 50th on Law’s and McDaniel’s boards but placed as low as 102nd at Baseball America. He projects to third base and has a well-rounded skillset with advanced hitting ability but doesn’t project for many plus tools.
  • The Dodgers signed 40th overall selection Zachary Root for $2.2MM, a little below the $2.43MM slot. They signed 41st selection Charles Davalan for exactly $2MM, also below slot. Root, a 6’1″ lefty from Arkansas, is viewed as a likely back-end starter on the strength of his secondary stuff. He posted a 3.62 ERA with 126 strikeouts in 19 starts this past season. Davalan was Root’s teammate with the Hogs. He hit .346 with 14 homers in his junior season. A short left-handed hitter, Davalan has plus contact skills with some bat speed and could project as an above-average defensive left fielder.

Note: This post initially called Taylor a Minnesota draft pick. MLBTR apologizes for the error.

Padres, Phillies Showing Interest In Steven Kwan

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The Phillies and Padres are two of the many teams that have expressed interest in Steven Kwan, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Both National League contenders are known to be looking for a left field upgrade.

Kwan would be one of the top hitters on the market if the Guardians made him available. Heyman suggests that Cleveland is willing to consider offers but are understandably setting a high asking price. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote on Tuesday that the Guardians are unlikely to pull the trigger on a Kwan trade. The two-time All-Star is under arbitration control for another two seasons. He’s playing this year on a bargain $4.175MM salary.

Phillies left fielders are hitting .190/.302/.339. Most of that falls on offseason signee Max Kepler, who has not performed as expected on a $10MM deal. Kepler carries a .207/.305/.372 slash with 11 home runs in 328 plate appearances. He has also expressed some frustration about the Phils shielding him from left-handed pitching, though it’s not as if he has forced his way into the lineup with his production. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Phillies tried to move Kepler in a change-of-scenery trade.

That might happen even if the Phils can’t land a bigger bat. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski shed some light on the team’s thought process with outfield prospect Justin Crawford on Monday (link via Matt Gelb of The Athletic). Dombrowski indicated that the 21-year-old Crawford, who is hitting .326/.406/.424 with 29 stolen bases in Triple-A, is on the radar for an MLB promotion. That might wait until after the deadline, however, as the Phils don’t want to call Crawford up only to option him back to the minors if they trade for an everyday outfielder.

“The one thing, if you’re bringing Justin Crawford up at this point, he needs to play,” Dombrowski told reporters. “So that’s the main thing. So we need to kind of just sort out our own situation here and see when he comes up that he’s going to be a guy that’s playing all the time.” Crawford could theoretically push Brandon Marsh out of center field even if the Phils were to acquire a left fielder. There’d be a clearer path to plugging him into left while pushing Kepler to the bench or off the roster entirely if they don’t land an external upgrade.

San Diego planned to open the season with a Jason Heyward/Connor Joe left field platoon. Neither player made it on the roster through the end of June. Gavin Sheets has taken over as the left fielder. The lefty-hitting Sheets has had a strong year at the dish, batting .257/.319/.433 with 14 homers. He has hit a skid this month, though, and he profiles better defensively at first base or designated hitter.

Kwan is one of the best all-around left fielders in the sport. He has won the Gold Glove in each of his first three big league seasons. He’s been an average or better hitter in each year, including a .285/.348/.393 slash in 415 plate appearances this season. Kwan has walked more often than he has struck out in each of the past two seasons. He doesn’t have huge power but has the high-OBP skillset that makes him an ideal leadoff hitter.

As a small-market club, Cleveland tends to be broadly open to considering offers on any player aside from José Ramírez. Each of Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith and Shane Bieber have come up in trade rumors as well. They’re certainly not locked into selling, however. The Guardians have won three straight and eight of their past 10 to climb back to .500. They’re within 2.5 games of a Wild Card position pending tonight’s results. They have two more games against the Orioles before heading to Kansas City for a weekend series. They’ll host the Rockies for three in their final set before the deadline.

Padres Have Discussed Dylan Cease With Several Teams

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The Padres have spoken to several teams about the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Cubs, Mets and multiple AL East clubs have had some talks with San Diego, per the report. Separately, Olney’s colleague Jeff Passan also suggests that Cease has come up in trade talks, though that’s framed as other clubs approaching the Padres and not expressly being turned away.

Whether the Padres have initiated talks or whether they’re simply hearing other teams out, the possibility of trading Cease speaks to multiple challenges for San Diego over the next week-plus. The Friars’ farm system is not particularly well regarded beyond its top two prospects, and the team is ostensibly reluctant to part with either Leo De Vries or Ethan Salas. That leaves the Padres with a fairly light slate of prospects from which to deal.

Talks surrounding Cease could also reflect what looked to be the case in the late stages of the offseason: the Padres’ baseball operations staff does not appear to have much financial firepower at its disposal. The new-look ownership structure hasn’t been as keen to spend as the late Peter Seidler. They’re still well north of the luxury tax threshold, but the team’s actual cash payroll is down considerably from its 2023 peak.

The Padres’ late-offseason dealings put a spotlight on that lack of resources. Nick Pivetta’s four-year, $55MM deal pays him just $4MM in the first season of the contract. Catcher Elias Diaz ($3.5MM), lefty Kyle Hart ($1.5MM) and outfielders Connor Joe ($1MM) and Jason Heyward ($1MM) signed one-year contracts valued at a combined $7MM. Their other late additions included minor league deals for Yuli Gurriel, Gavin Sheets, Jose Iglesias and Martin Maldonado. Each cracked the big league roster at the end of camp, but Iglesias’ $3MM base salary was the largest of the bunch.

Trading Cease while still aiming to contend might seem counterintuitive, but the Padres could accomplish multiple goals, in theory. He’s an impending free agent who’s earning $13.75MM this season with about $4.95MM of that sum yet to be paid out. Trimming nearly $5MM off the books would create a decent bit of money to pursue upgrades behind the plate, in left field and perhaps on the bench — all areas of need. It’d also net some prospects of note, any of whom could subsequently be flipped to another team to address various needs on the roster.

Of course, moving Cease would also further deplete a perilously thin rotation. Michael King has been out nearly two months due to shoulder inflammation, and Joe Musgrove is out all season following last year’s Tommy John surgery. With Cease out of the picture, the Padres would be left with Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Stephen Kolek, Randy Vasquez and rookie Ryan Bergert in the rotation — at least until King returns. It’s not a great group, and the depth beyond it is shaky at best.

To that end, Olney further reports that even while discussing Cease, the Padres have been in contact with the Orioles about right-hander Charlie Morton, who’s widely expected to be traded between now and July 31. Morton’s $15MM salary is even larger than that of Cease, so presumably the Padres would be interested only if the Orioles were to include cash to offset a portion of the deal (likely enough so San Diego would owe a good bit less than the $4.95MM left on Cease’s contract).

Morton got out to a terrible start this season but has posted terrific numbers over his past 12 appearances overall (even including a seven-run hiccup his last time out). Since May 10, he’s posted a 3.47 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate, a 7.7% walk rate and a 44.2% grounder rate. Metrics like FIP (3.30) and SIERA (3.49) generally support his resurgence. Over that span, Morton has actually outpitched Cease, though Cease’s power arsenal, track record and sustained ability to miss bats would still hold greater appeal to most clubs on the lookout for rotation upgrades.

Cease hasn’t had his best season but has been generally solid since a catastrophic nine-run drubbing in his third start of the year. Dating back to April 14, Cease has pitched 99 innings with a 4.09 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. His swinging-strike rate in that time is nearly 17% — a massive mark — and he’s averaging better than 97 mph on his heater. He’s had some struggles with runners on base this year and at least a little bit of batted-ball misfortune (.319 compared to his .290 mark entering the season), but Cease is still throwing hard, missing bats at a plus rate and limiting walks at an average clip. For any of the Cubs, Mets or any AL East contender, he’d very likely step right into a theoretical playoff rotation, barring a late injury or substantial downturn in results.

MLBTR Podcast: Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which 2025 All-Star hitter and pitcher are most likely to be traded ahead of the deadline? (29:50)
  • Will the Red Sox trade an outfielder to upgrade another part of the roster? Could they get Joe Ryan from the Twins? What should Boston do with Tanner Houck? (36:15)
  • Could the Padres trade Dylan Cease and still compete, the way the Tigers flipped Jack Flaherty and still made the playoffs last year? What will the Friars add at the deadline? (51:50)
  • How will the Mets use Clay Holmes the rest of the way? (59:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up – listen here
  • Depleted Mets’ Pitching, The Pirates Are Open For Business, And More! – listen here
  • The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series continues with the Padres. San Diego's top-heavy roster makes it easy to identify the priorities. If they remain resistant to trading either of their top prospects, they could pivot to under-the-radar or rental trade targets.

Record: 52-44 (48.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners

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Potential needs: Catcher, left field, starting pitcher, utility infielder

San Diego has had the same top few needs going back to the offseason. Free agent departures of Kyle Higashioka and Jurickson Profar left them without answers at catcher and in left field, respectively. The rotation depth has been a question since Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery. The late-offseason Nick Pivetta signing has been massive, but the back of the rotation still feels tenuous. Low-cost pickups in catcher and left field have not panned out, leaving the Padres to address both positions over the next two and a half weeks.

The Padres have had arguably the worst catching tandem in MLB. Elias Díaz and Martín Maldonado have combined to hit .195/.255/.306 over 327 plate appearances. Neither player rates highly as a pitch framer. While both players, especially Maldonado, have a strong reputation for the unquantifiable aspects of catcher defense (e.g. game-calling, managing a pitching staff), the production has not been there. It speaks to how far former top prospect Luis Campusano has fallen in the organization's eyes that he hasn't gotten an opportunity this year.

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