Latest On Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts trade drama has been one of the prevailing stories of the offseason. In addition to the Red Sox’s recent discussions with the Padres, Boston is also in touch with the Dodgers on a potential Betts deal, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While there’s still no certainty that Boston will eventually pull the trigger, Speier characterizes the club’s willingness to move the 2018 AL MVP as “serious.”
While a Padres’ deal would seemingly require Boston to take on Wil Myers‘ contract as a means of acquiring prospects and reducing their luxury tax hit, Dodgers’ talks would seem to be more straightforward. As Speier notes, L.A. could part with one of their many MLB outfielders to facilitate a trade for Betts, whom they justifiably view as “a rare talent.” Such a scenario could be appealing to Boston, who no doubt hopes to compete in 2020.
Interestingly, Speier adds that the Dodgers could look to explore a package deal involving Betts and a high-priced starting pitcher like David Price. That would help Boston get under the $208MM luxury tax threshold, although Sox owner John Henry recently downplayed the importance of doing so. At the moment, the Sox project for a $236.8MM luxury number, per Roster Resource. Removing Betts’ $27MM and Price’s $31MM respective CBT hits from the books would ameliorate that. That, of course, would certainly make Boston’s roster worse in the short-term, even if they received MLB-ready pieces in any return.
A third NL West team is also at least lurking on the periphery of the Betts’ market. The Diamondbacks, where former Red Sox executives Mike Hazen and Amiel Sawdaye are leading the front office, have interest in the superstar outfielder, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Arizona doesn’t have the resources or farm system of the Dodgers or Padres, perhaps making them a longshot. Still, any team figures to have a strong enough system to reel in Betts, who will hit free agency next offseason. Meanwhile, the Snakes should have a bit of financial flexibility, with a projected season-opening payroll of $114MM that trails their season-ending outlay of $125MM. That alone wouldn’t be enough to make room for Betts’ $27MM salary, although perhaps ownership could bump payroll beyond typical spending levels if it meant landing a unique talent.
If anything is clear from the varying reports, it’s that the situation remains fluid. 70% of MLBTR readers forecasted this week that Betts would open the season in Boston. That’s obviously still a strong possibility. Nothing prevents the Red Sox from holding Betts and reevaluating their situation at the trade deadline; future suitors wouldn’t get the benefit of being able to tag Betts with a qualifying offer if they acquire him in-season (as they would if a deal is swung preseason), but there’d no doubt still be demand for one of the sport’s best players in July.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/23/20
The latest minor league transactions from around the game…
- The Dodgers released their list of Spring Training non-roster invites, most of which have already been detailed on MLBTR’s pages. One previously unreported name on the list is left-hander Kyle Lobstein, who is back with L.A. on a minor league contract. This will be Lobstein’s second stint in the organization, as he pitched for the Dodgers’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2018 before moving on to pitch for the Athletics’ Triple-A team in 2019. Lobstein posted a 4.75 ERA, 2.06 K/BB rate, and 9.0 K/9 over 66 1/3 innings last season, with virtually identical numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters. The 30-year-old Lobstein posted a 5.06 ERA over his 128 career Major League innings, all with the Tigers and Pirates from 2014-16.
Twins Targeted Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu Before Winning Donaldson Sweepstakes
Before the holidays, the Twins offered Josh Donaldson a four-year, $84MM contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in team history after Joe Mauer, writes Phil Miller in a profile well worth a read from the Star Tribune. Another interesting tidbit from Miller confirmed that Zack Wheeler had been the Twins’ primary target at the outset of the offseason, shifting only to Donaldson after missing out on Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Donaldson offered a potent bat, of course, but the ability to improve their infield defense at third (and by effect, their pitching) also keyed the Twins on the Bringer of Rain.
Donaldson and his agent Dan Lozano fielded recruitment efforts from all corners of the Minnesota Twins extended universe before committing, from Miguel Sano over video eagerly offering to accommodate Donaldson by changing positions, to a former tennis professional and friend of Donaldson’s who happens to be a Twins fan, to the substantial recruitment effort put in ink by Twins’ ownership when they offered him a four-year, $92MM contract. The fifth year, $16MM team option helped push the deal over the edge, especially once the Twins’ agreed to set the buyout amount at $8MM. If the option is picked up, the deal becomes a five-year, $100MM pact.
Some of the heaviest lifting was done in a meeting between Donaldson, Lozano, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli, General Manager Thad Levine and Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey. Baldelli sold Donaldson on clubhouse culture and his plans for deploying Donaldson. The front office put together metrics on their 2019 success and profiled some of the talent on its way to Minneapolis from the minor leagues, establishing a belief that the Twins will remain in contention throughout Donaldson’s tenure.
Misinformation persisted in the media throughout, with Lozano suspected of leaking the $110MM asking price in the hopes of a team with deep pockets (like the Dodgers) matching the number. It worked, in a way, as the Twins realized Donaldson must not have had the offer he wanted, so they set out with renewed enthusiasm (and more money). Obviously, $100MM turned out to be the magic number.
Cubs Acquire Casey Sadler
The Cubs have acquired right-hander Casey Sadler from the Dodgers, per team announcements. Minor league infielder Clayton Daniel is headed back to L.A. Sadler lost his spot on the Dodgers’ 40-man when the club signed Alex Wood. The Cubs’ 40-man roster now sits at 39.
Sadler, 29, pitched to a stellar 2.14 ERA in 46.1 innings between the Rays and Dodgers in 2019. As might be expected, his peripherals hardly supported that level of run prevention. A below-average 9.1% swinging strike rate and 16% strikeout rate contributed to a 4.38 FIP. To Sadler’s credit, he did limit walks and features elite spin on his fastball and curveball. Perhaps he’ll be able to overcome some likely regression in his BABIP allowed and strand rate if he can better actualize his raw stuff in Chicago. Sadler’s out of options, so he’ll have to stick on the Cubs’ active roster or else again be traded or exposed to waivers.
Daniel, 24, has reached Double-A, albeit briefly. In 501 professional plate appearances, mostly in the low minors, the Jacksonville State product has compiled a .290/.367/.379 line with nearly as many walks (52) as strikeouts (53). The former 31st-rounder has logged starts at second, short, and third base, with much of that work coming in the middle infield.
Dodgers Designate Casey Sadler
The Dodgers have designated right-hander Casey Sadler for assignment, the team announced. The move clears roster space for left-hander Alex Wood, whose deal with the team is now official.
This could go down as a short Dodgers stint for Sadler, whom they acquired from the Rays last July. In terms of bottom-line results, though, Sadler was quite effective with both teams in 2019. The 29-year-old put up a stingy 2.14 ERA over 46 1/3 innings between the clubs, also notching a terrific 51.8 percent groundball rate and walking only 2.53 batters per nine.
Sadler also posted a career-high 95 mph average fastball velocity in the majors last season, but he barely struck out six hitters per nine. He also managed a bel0w-average 9.1 percent swinging-strike rate, and ERA indicators such as FIP (4.38), xFIP (4.78) and SIERA (4.58) weren’t high on his work.
Last year may have been a mixed bag at the MLB level for Sadler, but there’s no disputing that he was a standout in the minors. Sadler worked 38 2/3 innings innings in Triple-A ball and recorded a 3.26 ERA with 12.3 K/9 against just 1.4 BB/9. That performance, not to mention Sadler’s run prevention in the majors last season, may put him on other teams’ radars. However, the fact that Sadler’s out of minor league options could work against him.
NL Notes: Dodgers, Cards, Arenado, Beltran
The Dodgers lost the 2017 World Series in seven games to a franchise that’s now embroiled in one of the biggest scandals in baseball history. The Astros, who defeated the Dodgers, fired the GM (Jeff Luhnow) and manager (A.J. Hinch) of their championship team Monday after the league determined they were key figures in a sign-stealing scandal from that year. Luhnow and Hinch received one-year suspensions before the Astros dismissed them, while the tea also lost four draft picks (first- and second-rounders in each of the next two years) and earned the maximum fine of $5MM. The Dodgers could perhaps feel slighted as a result of the Astros’ misdeeds, but the organization is prohibited from making any complaints known. The team issued a statement Monday, saying: “All clubs have been asked by Major League Baseball not to comment on today’s punishment of the Houston Astros, as it’s inappropriate to comment on discipline imposed on another club. The Dodgers have also been asked not to comment on any wrongdoing during the 2017 World Series and will have no further comment at this time.”
More from the National League…
- The Rockies and Cardinals have engaged in preliminary negotiations centering on Rox superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has been on St. Louis’ radar for years. They’ve held talks with Colorado “at least dating back” to December 2018, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. A few months later, the Rockies extended Arenado for seven years and $234MM on a deal that will kick in this season. That money, not to mention Arenado’s no-trade rights and his ability to opt out after 2021, could help prevent an acquisition from materializing for the Cardinals or anyone else. The Cards haven’t been willing to meet the Rockies’ asking price for Arenado in the past, per Goold, though it’s unclear what Colorado asked for in return. Now, as you’d expect, Goold notes that the Cardinals are unwilling to trade young ace Jack Flaherty and also seem unlikely to part with high-end outfield prospect Dylan Carlson.
- New Mets manager Carlos Beltran, a member of the Houston team in 2017, was part of the league’s investigation into the Astros. MLB did not issue him any punishment, however, after he was gave the league his full cooperation “and admitted to everything,” Andy Martino of SNY tweets. It seems Beltran changed his tune since the league’s investigation started in November, though, as he initially denied any knowledge of violations on the Astros’ part.
Dodgers Sign Alex Wood
The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with free agent left-hander Alex Wood, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). The deal will guarantee the ACES client $4MM on a one-year term, with incentives that can push the total to $10MM, Rosenthal adds (via Twitter). Wood has already passed his physical, Rosenthal further reports. Wood himself has confirmed the agreement on Twitter.
The reunion marks a nice birthday present for Wood, who turned 29 today. The lefty has done his best work in Dodger Blue, combining for a 3.46 ERA and 3.50 FIP over 434.2 innings in three-plus seasons in Los Angeles. Over that time, Wood only managed an average strikeout rate (22.3%), but he proved stingy with walks (6.7%) and induced ground balls on over half the balls in play against him. That mid-rotation output prompted the Reds to acquire him (alongisde Yasiel Puig and Kyle Farmer) last offseason for a pair of well-regarded prospects.
Unfortunately, a back injury limited Wood to seven ineffective starts in Cincinnati. He didn’t make his season debut until July 28, and only once did he exceed six innings in a start. Never an extremely hard thrower, Wood’s 89.98 MPH average sinker velocity last season, per Brooks Baseball, was down over two MPH from his career-best 2017 effort.
2019 struggles notwithstanding, it’s not hard to see the upside for both parties. Wood was an above-average starter as recently as 2018. He has four career seasons in which he was worth at least two wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and as noted, he remains quite young for a free agent. Injuries have hampered Wood in recent seasons, to be sure, as he’s been on the injured list each of the past four years. There’s little long-term risk here for the team, though, and their $4MM investment is minuscule for a franchise which ended the 2019 season with an estimated $210MM payroll, per Roster Resource.
Wood, meanwhile, gets an opportunity to reestablish his health. Should he reclaim his prior form, he’d likely earn some or all of the available incentives. More importantly, he can reenter the open market at a still-young 30 next offseason in search of the multiyear deal for which he seemed ticketed before his 2019 tribulations.
Wood joins a crowded Dodgers’ rotation mix behind Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. LA hasn’t been shy about moving pitchers in and out of the rotation under manager Dave Roberts. Wood figures to compete with Kenta Maeda, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and the newly-signed Jimmy Nelson for rotation innings. Surely, some or all of those pitchers will log some time out of the Dodgers’ oft-maligned bullpen as well.
So continues an offseason trend for the NL West favorites. Nelson, Wood, and reliever Blake Treinen have all been brought in on one-year deals this offseason. All three have shown high ceilings in the past, but struggled through injuries or ineffectiveness (or both) in 2019. They may not be the stars Dodger fans have been coveting, although each brings quite a bit of upside. None, it should be noted, would preclude the Andrew Friedman-led front office from striking on a bigger name if the opportunity were to present itself.
2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- George Springer, Astros: $22.5MM versus $17.5MM (Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter)
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: $12.4MM versus $10MM (Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, via Twitter)
- Trevor Story, Rockies: $11.5MM versus $10.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: $9.5MM versus $7.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: $6.95MM versus $6.6MM (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, via Twitter)
- Shane Greene, Braves: $6.75MM versus $6.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Josh Hader, Brewers: $6.4MM versus $4.1MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers: $5.8MM versus $5.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Hector Neris, Phillies: $5.2MM versus $4.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Max Muncy, Dodgers: $4.675MM versus $4MM (Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter)
- Jose Berrios, Twins: $4.4MM versus $4.025MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: $4.1MM versus $3.625MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Pedro Baez, Dodgers: $4.0MM versus $3.5MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez
The Dodgers have struck a record-breaking arbitration deal with outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Bellinger is said to have a $11.5MM pact, topping the prior record (Kris Bryant, $10.85MM) for a first-time arb-eligible player.
Other top performers have also reached deals. Corey Seager will play at a $7.6MM salary. And utilityman Enrique Hernandez will earn $5.9MM, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).
Bellinger lands right at the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. As Matt explained in a closer look, though, there was an argument for the reigning NL MVP to earn even more. He’ll still end up setting a new high-water mark for arbitration rookies by a fairly healthy margin.
Entering 2019, Bellinger had already established himself as a high-quality hitter and versatile defender. But he took things to a whole new level in his age-23 season, slashing a hefty .305/.406/.629 and launching 47 home runs while delivering big value on the bases and with the glove.
The projections were also close for Seager ($7.1MM) and Hernandez ($5.5MM). Both players were at less than top form in 2019 but remain key contributors — at least, unless they end up being shuffled out of the deck with a spring trade.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
- Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
- The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
- The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
- Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
- The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
- Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
- The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
- Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
- Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
- The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
- Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.
Earlier Settlements