- While the Dodgers have come up as a potential landing spot for Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray or Justin Verlander, it appears for now that they’re likelier to acquire an impact reliever than a high-end starter, relays Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). On the subject of the Tigers’ Verlander, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter) that Los Angeles has focused less on him than reliever Justin Wilson in trade talks with Detroit. That isn’t surprising, as Verlander is on an onerous contract and unlikely to move before Monday.
Dodgers Rumors
New CBA To Penalize High-Payroll Teams With Lowered Draft Picks
MLB’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement contains a previously unknown detail that could potentially affect teams that spend heavily, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. In addition to the luxury tax, the CBA includes two surcharge thresholds that could cost big spenders extra money and that could even lower their top draft picks.
The financial details of the surcharge thresholds were previously known. If a team spends above $217MM in 2018, it will receive an extra 12% tax in addition to the usual 20%, 30% or 50% luxury tax. If a team spends over $237MM, it will receive an extra 42.5% or 45% surcharge tax.
Beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category, Cooper notes. A team that spends above $237MM will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots.
As Cooper points out, the new rule could be a significant deterrent to teams hoping to be among baseball’s biggest spenders, since teams are generally quite protective of early-round draft picks. The Dodgers, for example, have had payrolls above $237MM for the past several seasons. Under the new system, they would pay a very significant penalty for spending so heavily. Cooper notes that a $260MM payroll in 2018 would cost the Dodgers over $50MM in luxury tax, plus the lowered draft pick.
Dodgers Acquire Luke Farrell From Royals
The Dodgers announced on Friday that they’ve acquired right-hander Luke Farrell from the Royals in exchange for cash. Farrell was designated for assignment earlier this week when Kansas City acquired the trio of Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter from the Padres. The Dodgers moved lefty Adam Liberatore to the 60-day disabled list to create space on the 40-man roster.
Farrell, 26, made his MLB debut with K.C. this season but was shelled for five runs on seven hits and three walks with two strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings. Unsightly as that spot start was, Farrell has produced some solid results with Triple-A Omaha in each of the past two seasons, working to a combined 3.92 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and roughly a 36 percent ground-ball rate. He comes from a good baseball family as well, given that his father, John, currently manages the Red Sox.
Farrell has never ranked among the Royals’ top echelon of prospects, though Fangraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen did mention him when profiling the Royals’ farm system this offseason. Per Longenhagen, Farrell works 90-92 mph with his fastball and has an average cutter and fringe curveball.
Darvish Dodgers' Top Target; Gray A Fallback
Teams around the league are waiting for the Cardinals to give a clear indication that they intend to trade right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. The impending free agent is among the most sought-after assets in a thin market for starting pitching, Olney adds. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests, though, that the Cardinals haven’t exactly made Lynn’s availability a secret. St. Louis is “in the process of generating a market and offers” for Lynn, according to Goold, though they’re also still trying to acquire a bat to put in the middle of their lineup. Goold speculates that once Sonny Gray is finally traded, other clubs may then pivot to the Redbirds and make their best offer for Lynn, who hasn’t had any substantive talks with Cardinals brass about an extension. The Yankees have interest in Lynn, per Goold, who also notes that the Dodgers and Indians have scouted St. Louis recently. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Royals have also had recent talks with the Cardinals about Lynn.
- Yu Darvish is still the Dodgers’ top target, but the team isn’t likely to surrender any of its “very top prospects” in order to pry him away from the Rangers, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Dodgers view Sonny Gray as a fallback option for Darvish, who is also drawing interest from the Yankees, Cubs and Astros, according to Heyman.
Dodgers Focusing On Yu Darvish?
- The Dodgers are also looking at starters, of course, and Morosi hears they are (Twitter links) increasingly confident in landing a big name. Currently, Los Angeles is focused more on Rangers star Yu Darvish than either Sonny Gray of the Athletics or Justin Verlander of the Tigers, he notes. Of course, at this point it’s still unclear whether Darvish will be marketed at all, and it’s not really known how keen the Dodgers’ interest is in the other two starters.
Justin Wilson Trade Rumors: Thursday
Justin Wilson has been among the most talked-about assets on the trade market, and the sheer volume of updates on the expansive market for his services is enough to warrant its own dedicated post with the deadline looming. Here’s the latest on the Tigers southpaw, who currently boasts a 2.75 ERA with 12.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate…
- It seems the list of possible suitors isn’t getting any shorter just yet. To the contrary, the Indians have also asked about Wilson’s price tag, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Cleveland is down a lefty after losing Boone Logan.
Earlier Updates
- The Yankees have joined the pursuit of Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It was New York that traded Wilson to the Tigers in the first place (for righties Chad Green and Luis Cessa), and while the Yanks have already beefed up their ’pen with the additions of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, they appear further interested in adding a shutdown lefty. The Tigers, though, are aiming extremely high in talks for Wilson, with Fenech suggesting that they’re seeking an Aroldis Chapman -esque return for Wilson. While the 29-year-old Wilson is earning a bargain $2.7MM salary and can be controlled through 2018 via arbitration, that’s still a sky-high ask. The Cubs sent Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren and Rashad Crawford to New York in exchange for Chapman last summer.
- The Astros could be the most focused team on Tigers southpaw Justin Wilson, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Wilson has leapfrogged Orioles closer Zach Britton on the Astros’ list of targets, though all indications are that the ask on Wilson is extremely high. Houston is hardly alone in its pursuit of Wilson and has yet to definitively separate itself from the pack, however, per Crasnick (Twitter links). There are at least six teams still in on Wilson, with the Nationals “strongly” in the mix. Lastly, Crasnick tweets that the odds of a package deal sending Wilson and Justin Verlander to a team “are not good” due to the complex nature of such negotiations.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that the Brewers, Astros and Red Sox were recently considered to be the leaders in the Wilson sweepstakes, though others are in on him as well. Heyman lists the Cubs, Rockies, D-backs, Dodgers and Nationals as other potential landing spots in a trade.
Jeff Samardzija Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause
Jeff Samardzija’s name has come up frequently in recent trade rumors, but the 32-year-old right-hander’s five-year, $90MM contract allows him to block trades to all but eight teams. Moreover, Samardzija tells Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that if approached by the Giants about a trade to one of the teams over which he has veto power, he wouldn’t be interested in waiving the clause.
“I love being here,” said Samardzija shortly after praising the Giants’ core players and suggesting that the team fully believes it can turn the tide next season. Samardzija smiled yesterday when telling Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he “[doesn’t] remember” the eight teams to which he can be traded without his approval (Twitter link), but Baggarly now reports the full list in a separate column.
According to Baggarly, Samardzija can be traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Athletics and Nationals without his consent. All other teams — including the Astros, who have been the team most frequently connected to Samardzija on the rumor circuit — require Samardzija’s consent, and it doesn’t sound like he’s interested in green-lighting any proposals.
Samardzija is owed $18MM annually and has struggled in the estimation of traditional metrics this season. He’s sporting a 5-11 record with a 4.85 ERA, but most other statistical means of evaluation are rather bullish on the righty. He’s averaging 9.7 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9, both of which would be the best marks of his career, and leading the Majors in K/BB ratio. His 43.3 percent ground-ball rate is only a tick below average, and he’s inducing more swings at pitches out of the strike zone than he ever has before. Samardzija’s fastball velocity has also held strong at an average of just over 94 mph, and he’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start. Metrics like FIP (3.49), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28 prior to today’s strong outing) all view him much more favorably than earned run average.
Samardzija has struggled with men on base, in part due to the fact that he’s one of many pitchers throughout the league that has seen his HR/9 rate and HR/FB ratio spike as balls are leaving the yard at a higher rate than ever before in MLB history. And while his durability and K/BB numbers are impressive, some teams will no doubt express some skepticism that Samardzija would be able to better keep the ball in the yard by vacating the spacious AT&T Park as his home stadium. The remaining money on his contract also figures to be a concern to come clubs, as he represents a fairly sizable commitment to those that are near the luxury tax threshold.
All of that sounds to be mostly a moot point anyhow. Among the teams to which Samardzija can be moved, the Red Sox don’t seem likely to pursue a starter, while the Mets and A’s aren’t contending. The Angels are a fringe contender at best and have luxury tax concerns, while the Nationals are said to be more focused on relievers and may shy away from the money remaining on his deal. It’s at least possible that one of the other teams listed shows some interest, but the Yankees are presently focused on Sonny Gray, while the Cubs have already added Jose Quintana and the Dodgers have been most heavily linked to Yu Darvish (to say nothing of the longstanding Dodgers/Giants division rivalry).
NL Deadline Chatter: Nats, Hand, Cards, Cozart, Cubs, Mets
The Nationals are “scouring [the] market” for a starter, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). We have heard varying suggestions on this front, as the Nats deal with the loss of Joe Ross and newfound uncertainty regarding Stephen Strasburg. While the latest signs on Stras are positive, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post argues that the club ought to going after a front-line starter regardless. Beyond the possibility of augmenting the club’s staff for an anticipated postseason appearance this year, the possibility of adding an arm for 2018 and perhaps beyond would seem to hold appeal, perhaps adding to the justification for making a move.
Here’s more deadline chatter from the National League:
- Padres chairman Ron Fowler suggested today in a radio appearance on The Mighty 1090 that he doesn’t really expect the team to end up dealing lefty Brad Hand (h/t Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). “Other things being equal right now, I don’t see us moving him, because we value him more than what’s being offered and we think he could be part of the team for the foreseeable future,” Fowler stated. That said, he acknowledged the team remains open to working out a deal, calling it “a very fluid situation.”
- Though it’s still unclear just what course the Cardinals will take at the deadline, the club is now “expected to listen to offers” on outfielders Tommy Pham and Randal Grichuk, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. While the Cards do now have quite a few options in the corner outfield, both of these players seem to fall in a curious spot in the potential market. There just isn’t much deadline demand in the corner outfield to drive up prices, and the Cards would surely be valuing their lengthy control rights in exploring potential deals. While there’d surely be interest, neither really looks to be a likely deadline mover from the outside. Of course, St. Louis also has some shorter-term assets that might be of interest — Lance Lynn, Seung-hwan Oh, and Trevor Rosenthal chief among them — and Morosi does note that the Dodgers and Nationals had scouts at the club’s latest game last night. Whether the Cardinals will really punt on the present season when the division is still in reach, though, is hardly clear at this point.
- The Reds held shortstop Zack Cozart out of the lineup today as he continues to deal with quad issues, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. It seems the hope is that this is more a rest day than the precursor to a DL stint, but it’s not the best news regardless. Cozart has been great this year, but the quad problem further dents his value in a market that doesn’t seem to have much appetite for shortstops.
- Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says there’s nothing close to completion at this point for his team, as Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio of Sirius XM tweets. The team is unsurprisingly still looking at pitching, with the rotation and relief corps both being susceptible of improvement.
- The Cubs are among the teams to have asked the Mets about righty Seth Lugo, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). But there’s simply no indication at present that New York will seriously entertain offers on Lugo, as Crasnick and Newsday’s Marc Carig (Twitter link) note. That makes sense given the multitude of pitching injuries the organization has experienced as well as its intentions of competing again in 2018.
- Some interest has begun to develop in Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The veteran obviously is very much available, and would conceivably fit quite a few teams as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can still handle some time in center field. On the other hand, he has been hurt and cold at the plate of late, and is playing on a hefty $15MM salary this year.
Kershaw Injury Doesn't Involve Last Year's Herniated Disk
- While Clayton Kershaw’s injury is obviously a blow to the Dodgers, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times offers a bit more encouraging detail on the situation. While the team was initially fearful that Kershaw had again injured the disk that he herniated last season, manager Dave Roberts told reporters that a scan confirmed that this injury does not involve last year’s herniated disk. That was the Dodgers’ greatest concern, according to Roberts, who called it a “safe bet” that Kershaw would make it back to the team later during the regular season. Shaikin notes that even the back end of the projected four to six week timeline would have Kershaw back in the rotation in early September. Regarding the potential that Kershaw’s injury pushes the Dodgers to make a run at Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish, Roberts simply stated that every team in baseball would love to have Darvish, but stressed that he has no plans to try to persuade the front office into action: “I can’t put the pressure on. I’m not going to put the pressure on.”
Dodgers Looking Closely At Pat Neshek
As things stand right now, the Rangers are leaning against dealing star righty Yu Darvish, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. That could still change with an “overwhelming” offer or a total collapse in the standings, he notes. There’s still no clarity in the American League Wild Card picture, and the Rangers remain as plausible a contender as any, so perhaps the smoke surrounding Darvish really has come from an extinguished flame. That storyline promises to be among the most notable of the coming week, not least of which because of interest from the suddenly Clayton Kershaw-less Dodgers. Los Angeles seems to be taking something of a Darvish-or-bust stance with regard to starters, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests in a tweet.
- We continue to hear of widespread interest in Phillies reliever Pat Neshek, though it remains unclear just how much he’ll draw in return. A few teams still looking hard at him are the Nationals, Dodgers, and Red Sox, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Those three clubs are among several that seem to be looking over a variety of relief pitchers, of course.
