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Brewers Acquire Bryan Hudson From Dodgers

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12:20pm: The Dodgers have announced the deal, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, with the Brewers sending lefty Justin Chambers and a player to be named later in return. Chambers is just 18 years old, having been selected in the 20th round of the 2023 draft. He didn’t make an appearance in affiliated ball after that draft selection.

12:05pm: The Brewers are acquiring left-hander Bryan Hudson from the Dodgers, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. The lefty was designated for assignment two weeks ago. DFA limbo is normally capped at one week but that clock is paused for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. It’s unclear what the Dodgers are receiving in exchange. Milwaukee’s 40-man roster count is up to 39.

Hudson, 27 in May, made his major league debut last year with 8 2/3 innings for the Dodgers. He allowed seven earned runs in that time, leading to an unsightly 7.27 ERA, though that’s obviously a miniscule sample size. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, tossing 55 2/3 innings with 2.43 ERA. He struck out 35.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 10.8% clip and keeping 46.7% of balls in play on the ground.

Grounders have consistently been a part of his game, going all the way back to his Rookie ball days. Those strikeouts are a fairly new development, however, having shot up in the past two years. He also struck out 29.7% of batters faced in 2022, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A while in the Cubs organization.

The ability to both strike hitters out and keep the ball on the ground when they do make contact is enticing and appears to have caught the attention of the Brewers. Hudson still has a couple of option years remaining, so he can serve as a depth piece for the bullpen in Milwaukee. Their southpaw relief corps is currently headlined by Hoby Milner, with Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews also on the roster, though Hudson will now jump into that group as well.

Yamamoto’s Opt-Out Dates Are Conditional On Elbow Health

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The Dodgers signed NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325MM deal that set the record for the largest pitching guarantee. That included a pair of opt-out chances for the 25-year-old righty. He could be in line for an even loftier deal a few years down the line if he continues to perform like a top-of-the-rotation starter against MLB competition.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported that Yamamoto would be able to opt out of the contract after the 2029 and ’31 seasons. According to the Associated Press, that’s in part conditional on the pitcher’s arm health in the first six years of the deal. If Yamamoto undergoes Tommy John surgery or spends 134+ consecutive days on the injured list with a right elbow concern between 2024-29, his opt-out chances would be delayed until following the 2031 and ’33 seasons. In the absence of that significant of an elbow injury, he’d be able to opt out after 2029 and ’31 as initially reported.

Interestingly, the contract also includes an opt-out provision designed to keep him from being traded. The AP reports that if the Dodgers trade Yamamoto, that would vest an opt-out clause that’d allow him to become a free agent at the end of that season. While it’s not true no-trade protection, it makes it very difficult to deal him. Any acquiring team would have to account for the possibility that Yamamoto leaves the following winter.

Of course, the Dodgers didn’t sign Yamamoto with any intention of trading him in the foreseeable future. They’re going to be all-in for years to come, likely for the entire duration of Shohei Ohtani’s decade-long contract. Ohtani’s willingness to defer $68MM of his $70MM annual salaries afforded the organization more short-term leeway to acquire and extend Tyler Glasnow and to sign Yamamoto.

Yamamoto’s contract contains a massive $50MM signing bonus. The AP reports that he’ll be paid $20MM by the start of February and the other $30MM by July 1. His annual salary structure breaks down as follows:

  • $5MM in 2024
  • $10MM in 2025
  • $12MM in 2026
  • $26MM annually from 2027-29
  • $29MM annually from 2030-31
  • $28MM annually from 2032-35

He’ll thus be paid $155MM over the next six seasons. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. Were Yamamoto to suffer an elbow injury within the first six years and opt in after the 2031 and ’33 seasons, the Dodgers receive a $10MM option (no buyout) covering the 2036 season, the AP reports.

The salary breakdown does not affect the contract’s average annual value. The deal counts for approximately $27.08MM each year from a luxury tax perspective. The Dodgers also owe a $50.625MM posting fee to Yamamoto’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes, though that is separate from the CBT calculation.

Dodgers Designate Bryan Hudson For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that left-hander Bryan Hudson has been designated for assignment.  The move opens up roster space for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose 12-year, $325MM deal with Los Angeles was made official this afternoon.

Hudson made his Major League debut this season, appearing in six games for L.A. and posting a 7.27 ERA over 8 2/3 innings of relief work.  It was a big milestone in Hudson’s eight-year pro career, which began when he was a third-round pick for the Cubs in the 2015 draft.  The 6’8″ Hudson pitched in Chicago’s organization until last winter, when he joined the Dodgers on a minor league contract.

The 26-year-old is a grounder specialist, regularly posting groundball rates north of 50% during his time in the minors.  However, Hudson’s groundball rates have dropped to around 46.5% at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons, as he has added a lot more strikeout ability to his arsenal.  After posting mostly uninspiring strikeout totals for much of his career, Hudson jumped to a 28.4% strikeout rate with Chicago’s Triple-A club in 2022, and then an even more impressive 35.7K% in 55 2/3 frame with Triple-A Oklahoma City last season.

While his 10.92% career walk rate indicates some wildness in Hudson’s game, his ability to rather drastically increase his ability to miss bats is a positive development, particularly since he is still able to generate grounders at an above-average rate.  This skillset isn’t unlikely to go unnoticed on the waiver wire, so there’s a decent chance a bullpen-needy makes a claim on Hudson while he is in DFA limbo.

Dodgers Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto To 12-Year Deal

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For the second time this month, the Dodgers have made a record-setting free agent strike. Los Angeles announced the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year contract. The NPB star lands a reported $325MM guarantee, an all-time high for a pitcher. The deal comes with a near-$51MM posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, bringing the overall commitment north of $375MM. Yamamoto is represented by Wasserman.

“I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Dodger organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the team. “I am truly excited to wear Dodger Blue and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Dodger Stadium.”

Yamamoto receives a massive $50MM signing bonus and a pair of opt-out opportunities. Those are conditional on the status of his elbow but would allow him to retest free agency after the 2029 and ’31 seasons if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of the last six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. The deal does not contain any deferred money.

The right-hander has been the best pitcher in Japan for the past few seasons. He spent parts of seven years with the Buffaloes. By his age-20 campaign, he’d emerged as one of the top pitchers at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Yamamoto turned in a 1.95 ERA that season, kicking off a run of five straight years allowing no more than 2.20 earned runs per nine.

That includes sub-2.00 ERA showings over his final trio of seasons. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher in all three years. He worked to a 1.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 2021, followed by a 1.68 mark in 193 frames the next season. Yamamoto somehow turned in an even better year in his final season, pitching to a microscopic 1.21 ERA through 168 frames.

Among NPB pitchers to reach 100 innings, Yamamoto’s ERA was more than half a run lower than anyone else’s. (Shoki Murakami finished second with a 1.75 mark in 144 1/3 frames). Only Shota Imanaga, who is also available to MLB teams this offseason via the posting system, topped Yamamoto’s 169 strikeouts. He punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters against a tidy 4.4% walk rate.

It’s about as dominant a body of work as a pitcher can build before he faces any MLB hitters. The elite production is supported by both scouting and quantitive evaluations of Yamamoto’s arsenal. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting him as a high-octane major league starter. Conservative estimates on his upside point to a future as a high-end #2 starter, while other scouts have pegged him as a potential ace.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently broke down Yamamoto’s repertoire. He suggested Yamamoto brandishes three plus or better offerings highlighted by a split-finger that should be among the best in the majors. The righty worked in the mid-upper 90s with his fastball in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic. He also sports a promising curveball and a cutter as his third and fourth offerings, while evaluators praise his athleticism and command.

Yamamoto would have been in high demand even if he were in his late 20s or early 30s, the standard age for a free agent pitcher. That he debuted in NPB as an 18-year-old and was made available via the posting system only adds to the appeal. Yamamoto turned 25 in August, making him the first marquee free agent pitcher that age since Masahiro Tanaka signed during the 2013-14 offseason. He’ll be paid through his age-36 season.

To the extent there are concerns about Yamamoto, they’re limited to his lack of MLB experience and a smaller 5’10” frame. That hasn’t worried many evaluators, though, and they’re clearly not issues for the Dodgers.

Entering the offseason, it was widely believed Yamamoto would land the largest contract ever for a player coming over from NPB. It’d have been a far bolder prediction to peg him for the largest deal of any pitcher in major league history. That’s what he’ll receive, though, setting the mark in both contract length and guarantee. He’s the first pitcher in recent memory to reach even the 10-year mark. The guarantee edges past the $324MM which Gerrit Cole landed with the Yankees during the 2019-20 offseason. Yamamoto’s deal stretches three more seasons than Cole’s does, but his camp is surely pleased with the guarantee record even if it required slightly lowering the annual salary.

The deal comes with a $27.08MM average annual value. Regardless of the precise salary distribution, that’s the relevant factor for the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax picture. That pushes L.A. well into the third tier of luxury tax penalization. Roster Resource calculates the club’s CBT number in the $282MM range.

The Dodgers are set to pay the tax for a third consecutive season. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% for their next $20MM, and a 95% clip for spending between $277MM and $297MM. (They’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for any dollars above $297MM.) By pushing the Dodgers from around $255MM to $282MM from a tax perspective, the contract adds roughly $18.2MM in tax payments. It also means that future acquisitions will come with an elevated tax height.

On top of the money to Yamamoto and the tax payments, the Dodgers are on the hook for a huge sum to Orix. Under the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, a posting fee is calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. That comes out to $50.625MM which the Dodgers owe to the Buffaloes.

It’s a staggering outlay, one that pushes near the $400MM mark in aggregate. It’s the kind of massive strike the Dodgers envisioned in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani signing. The defending AL MVP deferred $680MM of his $700MM deal until 2034-43. That left plenty of money at the front office’s disposal to fix the starting rotation. With Ohtani unable to pitch until 2025, he signed with a team that only had Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as locks for the Opening Day rotation.

Within a couple weeks, the Dodgers have constructed a star-studded pitching staff to complement their strong bullpen and loaded lineup. Los Angeles acquired and promptly extended Tyler Glasnow. Adding Yamamoto to the group gives them a potentially elite front four. There’s still some risk. Glasnow and Buehler have concerning injury histories, while neither Yamamoto nor Miller has pitched a full season in MLB. Yet it’s also not difficult to see the path to excellent results regardless of whomever takes the final spot. Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove project as the top internal options, but it’d be foolish to rule out the Dodgers adding a veteran arm to continue their all-in push.

Aggressive as the signing is for L.A., they weren’t meaningfully above their top competitors in the bidding. Martino reports that the Yankees put forth a 10-year, $300MM offer, while the Mets put the same $325MM figure on the table. According to Martino, Yamamoto’s camp had sought opt-out provisions after the fifth and eighth seasons in those discussions. The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillies were also in the running down to the final week.

In the end, it seems Yamamoto preferred the Dodgers to the other clubs that were seriously involved. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets first presented the $325MM offer, which the Dodgers agreed to match. He’ll join Ohtani, Glasnow, Buehler, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on a team that’s likely to enter the 2024 campaign as the most popular World Series pick.

The rest of the clubs will look elsewhere. The Mets seem likely to have a fairly quiet offseason, as they reportedly viewed Yamamoto as a unique free agent based on his youth and talent. They’re not expected to pivot to the next tiers of free agency. The Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox could all still be in play for top-of-the-market talent, either on the rotation front or at other positions. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery now stand atop the starting pitching class, while Cody Bellinger is arguably the best remaining overall free agent. The market could also now accelerate for Imanaga, the #2 NPB pitcher who has until mid-January to sign with an MLB team.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers for more than $300MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the 12-year, $325MM term. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the $50MM signing bonus, while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the absence of deferrals. Passan reported the two opt-out possibilities.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Remain Interested In Teoscar Hernandez

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According to independent reporter Francys Romero, the Dodgers are among the teams currently “monitoring” the market for outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, though they are not considered the favorite to ultimately land him. The report comes nearly two months after the club first expressed interest in the slugger’s services at the beginning of the offseason.

Of course, plenty has changed for the Dodgers since that initial report. L.A. has been by far the busiest club of the offseason to this point as they’ve landed top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto while also swinging a trade for and extending right-hander Tyler Glasnow. While the club’s flashiest acquisitions don’t overlap significantly with Hernandez, the Dodgers did acquire outfielder Manuel Margot as part of the Glasnow trade. With Margot now in the fold, the club appears likely to platoon him and veteran Jason Heyward (who re-signed with the club last month) in Hernandez’s native right field which cast at least some uncertainty on the club’s interest in his services.

Given the massive changes to the club’s roster in recent weeks, the Dodgers’ continued interest in Hernandez is somewhat notable even as they aren’t currently considered to be the favorite to land him. With Ohtani locked in as the club’s everyday DH, Heyward and Margot likely to man right field, and James Outman poised to start his sophomore season in center, Hernandez would likely wind up as L.A.’s everyday left fielder if he ultimately signed with the club.

The Dodgers have no established everyday left fielder, though the job is seemingly poised to go to veteran Chris Taylor if an external addition at the position isn’t made. Taylor put together a respectable season in 2023 that saw him slash a league average .237/.326/.420 while splitting time between shortstop, second base, third base, left field, and center field. If Hernandez or another regular outfielder is added, that would allow the Dodgers to keep Taylor in his current role as a semi-regular who shores up the club’s depth all around the diamond.

While the Dodgers sported MLB’s third-best offense last season with a team-wise wRC+ of 116, the club’s production in left field was actually well below average as David Peralta combined with Taylor to start all but 29 games at the position last year. The club’s collective production from left field was just 96, placing them 20th in the majors and bottom-five in the NL for the 2023 season. Hernandez, as a career 117 wRC+ hitter who slashed a whopping .283/.333/.519 from 2020-22, could prove to be a quality middle of the order bat for LA even after a down season in 2023. With that being said, even Hernandez’s diminished 105 wRC+ this past season would represent a fairly notable improvement over Peralta, who slashed just .259/.294/.381 in 422 trips to the plate last year.

That mix of a relatively stable floor and tantalizing upside earned Hernandez the 12th spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract. While that’s far from an insignificant sum, it’s a relative pittance to a club that’s committed over $1 billion total to Ohtani and Yamamoto alone, even as deferred money lowers the present-day financial impact of those deals. RosterResource currently projects the Dodgers for a $286MM payroll in 2024 but they figure have far more flexibility than that franchise-record figure would indicate thanks to the massive deferrals in Ohtani’s contract, which will pay him just $2MM in 2024.

Of course, the Dodgers are far from the only club known to be interested in Hernandez with both the club’s local rivals in Anaheim and the Red Sox among those pursuing the 31-year-old slugger. On the other hand, Hernandez is not the only corner bat available, though he figures to be a better fit for the Dodgers than Jorge Soler thanks to Ohtani’s presence at DH while offering more impact than the likes of Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham.

Dodgers Sign Jonathan Arauz To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have signed infielder Jonathan Arauz to a minor league deal, according to his player page on MLB.com. The specifics of the deal aren’t clear, but it’s likely the contract comes with an invite to big league Spring Training.

Arauz, 25, signed with the Phillies out of Panama prior to the 2015 season before being swapped to the Astros as the return in the Ken Giles deal the following season. Arauz spent three seasons in Houston’s farm system, ultimately advancing to Double-A before the Red Sox selected him in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. Arauz stuck on the big league roster in Boston throughout the entirety of the shortened 2020 season, during which he posted a .250/.325/.319 slash line (77 wRC+) in 80 trips to the plate across 25 games where he primarily played second base.

With Arauz now a permanent member of the Red Sox organization, the club shuttled him from Triple-A to the majors as infield depth in 2021, where he more or less replicated his 2020 season with a 71 wRC+ in 75 trips to the plate across 28 games. While Arauz started the 2022 campaign with the Red Sox, he was designated for assignment and claimed on waivers by the Orioles in June of that year. Arauz spent most of his time in Baltimore on the restricted list and was outrighted by the Orioles late in the year and ended the season with just five hits and a walk in 41 plate appearances spread across 15 games.

That offseason, Arauz changed uniforms through a familiar process after being selected in the second phase of the 2022 Rule 5 draft by the Mets, which added Arauz to the organization without any sort of restrictions. While he hit a respectable .239/.340/.415 in 100 games at the Triple-A level in 2023, the infielder’s time with the big league Mets was less productive as he slashed just .136/.203/.388 in 66 trips to the plate. In joining the Dodgers, Arauz is now on to his fourth team in three years and appears likely to act as minor league depth for L.A. backing up an infield group that includes Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, and Mookie Betts at the big league level with youngsters like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch hoping to break into a regular role in the majors.

West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto

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The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.

According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.

If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
  • Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
  • While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Latest On Yankees’, Mets’ Failed Pursuits Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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The Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes ended late last night when the 25-year-old right-hander agreed to a 12-year deal with the Dodgers worth $325MM. The massive figure is a record for free agent pitchers (aside from two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with LA earlier this month) as Yamamoto slightly surpassed Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM guarantee with the Yankees.

Among the most aggressive suitors for Yamamoto’s services aside from the Dodgers were the two New York teams. Both the Yankees and Mets met with Yamamoto multiple times and reportedly made offers that appeared to match or even exceed LA’s in terms of aggressiveness. Previous reporting indicated that the Mets offered Yamamoto a matching $325MM guarantee while the Yankees offered $300MM over just ten years, boosting the deal’s average annual value to $30MM. In the aftermath of Yamamoto’s decision to head to Los Angeles, more details regarding both clubs’ ultimately fruitless pursuits of the right-hander have come to light.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto exceeded that of the Dodgers’ in a few key areas despite offering $25MM less in terms of total guarantee. In addition to the aforementioned higher AAV, Rosenthal indicates the Yankees were willing to offer Yamamoto opt-out opportunities after the 2028 and 2032 seasons, both one year earlier than the opt-out opportunities he received in his contract out west. The differences in those offers are more meaningful than they may immediately appear. Had Yamamoto signed in the Bronx, he would have had the opportunity to hit free agency for a second time before his 30th birthday, while his deal with the Dodgers will offer him his first chance to opt-out after his age-30 season. Generally, players younger than 30 are widely considered to be far more attractive candidates for long-term deals than those older.

In addition to the potentially more lucrative opt-out situation, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto was not back-loaded, as his deal with the Dodgers reportedly is. That the contract Yamamoto ultimately agreed to is back-loaded is no small factor; not only does that mean that the deal’s present day value is diminished somewhat, it also means Yamamoto would be leaving a larger portion of his guaranteed money on the table by opting out of his contract with the Dodgers. No such concern would exist with the Yankees’ offer.

For the Mets’ part, Mike Puma of the New York Post indicates that the club’s 12-year, $325MM offer to Yamamoto was “among the first received” by the right-hander, and that the club was not offered the chance to improve upon that offer. Puma goes on to note, however, that the club may not have significantly raised their bid above that $325MM figure due to the roughly $50MM posting fee the club would have owed to Yamamoto’s NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, had a deal come together.

The Mets have long been expected to largely avoid top-of-the-market bidding wars for starting pitchers this offseason if they were to miss on Yamamoto, and club owner Steve Cohen seemingly confirmed that stance in conversation with reporters today. As relayed by Puma, Cohen discussed a more cautious approach to free agency this offseason than in previous seasons under his ownership.

“We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week,” Cohen said. “I think there’s a couple of ways to build a team… We’ll build it. It will happen. Slowly and surely you will see changes and improvements.”

Such a measure approach to the 2023-24 offseason has seemed to be a possibility in Queens ever since veteran right-hander Max Scherzer indicated last summer that the club viewed 2024 as “a kind of transitory year” with 2025 and 2026 as the club’s true focus in terms of returning to contention. Since then, the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto has largely taken center stage as the club has made smaller moves on the periphery, adding Luis Severino and Joey Wendle in free agency while picking up Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor in trade.

One factor that may have helped the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto, as discussed by Rosenthal, is the $50MM signing bonus he’ll receive as part of the contract. Rosenthal notes that Yamamoto’s bonus, paid entirely in 2024, would not be subject to California state taxes so long as he is not a resident of the state. That structure reportedly could save the right-hander as much as $7.2MM. Perhaps even more valuable than that savings would be the Dodgers’ unique position to accommodate his transition to the majors. NPB teams typically use six-man rotations with starters expected to pitch just once a week, making the move to MLB a significant jump in workload for overseas arms.

As noted by Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times, the Dodgers are all but guaranteed to plan on a six-man rotation for the 2025 season given the expected return of Ohtani to the mound that season. The lessened workload could help Yamamoto stay healthy throughout his big league career, which DiGiovanna relays is perhaps the primary concern of scouts regarding his future in the majors thanks to his undersized 5’10”, 176lb frame. Of course, there’s no guarantee that such an arrangement will be the plan for the Dodgers in 2024, when Ohtani will be rehabbing UCL surgery. Even so, DiGiovanna notes that the Dodgers’ starters appeared on regular rest in just 42 regular season games last season, leaving the door open for Yamamoto to get extra days of rest built into his schedule even if the club doesn’t go with a proper six-man rotation.

Giants Out Of Bidding For Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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9:06pm: Yamamoto could make his decision within the next 48 hours, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

7:55pm: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that Yamamoto has at least one offer of $300MM or more in hand.

6:59pm: The Giants have been informed they’re out of the running for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (X link). While there’s no indication that Yamamoto has made his final decision, Pavlovic adds the Giants expect he’ll sign with the Dodgers or one of the New York clubs.

Andy Martino of SNY tweets that the Mets have not received any indication they’re out of the running. That’s also true of the Yankees, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Heyman indicates the Yankees have put a “significant bid” on the table.

Crossing San Francisco off the list technically leaves six known finalists. In addition to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Red Sox have been involved. Philadelphia has made an offer this week. That said, reports have cast the Phils, Jays, and (to a lesser extent) the Sox as longer shots.

Yamamoto has been weighing offers throughout the week. While he technically has until the evening of January 4 to sign, the expectation is that he won’t take things to the wire. That his camp is now in the process of whittling the field lends credence to the idea that a decision might not be far off.

The bidding seems as if it’ll surpass $250MM, before accounting for a posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes that could tack on another $45-50MM. That fee is in proportion to the contract size, calculated as 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of additional spending. That reflects Yamamoto’s atypical youth for a free agent pitcher (25) and his sheer dominance in Japan. Named NPB’s best pitcher three years running, he’s coming off a 1.21 ERA while striking out nearly 27% of opponents in 164 innings.

It’s a tough blow for the Giants, who come up short on another top-tier free agent. The Giants have missed on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani within the past two offseasons alone, while their deal with Carlos Correa fell through because of the physical. Yamamoto will join that list. San Francisco did land KBO star Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM pact — the largest deal of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as baseball operations president — but they haven’t gotten a truly elite free agent in some time.

San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity as they decide on their next steps. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $158MM. That’s about $30MM below this year’s Opening Day figure. From a luxury tax perspective, they’re almost $45MM south of the base threshold. That opens the possibility for a run at any of the top remaining free agent talents. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery headline the rotation class, while Matt Chapman was on the radar earlier in the offseason. So was the top available hitter, Cody Bellinger, although the Lee signing seems to rule out a pursuit of another lefty-swinging center fielder.

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