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Dodgers Sign Brendon Davis, Chris Okey To Minor League Deals

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The Dodgers have inked infielder Brendon Davis and catcher Chris Okey to minor league deals, according to the transaction logs and each player’s MLB.com profile page. It’s unclear if either deal comes with an invitation to MLB Spring Training next month.

It’s a reunion for Davis, 26, who was selected by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. His first stint in the organization was a short one, however, as Davis was among the prospects L.A. shipped to the Rangers to acquire right-hander Yu Darvish at the 2017 trade deadline just two years after he had been drafted. Davis’s stay in the Rangers organization was only slightly longer. He played in the club’s organization in the 2017-19 seasons and reached the Double-A level during that time before missing the 2020 season due to the cancelled minor league season. The following offseason, Davis was plucked from the Rangers organization by the Angels in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

Davis’s return to southern California was a successful one, as he slashed .290/.362/.561 across three levels during the 2021 season, including a .333/.409/.641 slash line in a 33-game taste of the Triple-A level. 2022 saw him get a full season of experience in Triple-A, though his numbers fell back down to Earth a bit as he slashed just .235/.340/.424. Most of that production came in the Tigers organization, as Detroit claimed him off waivers from the Angels in May of that year. Davis even saw his first taste of big league action during the 2022 season thanks to a brief late-season call-up from the Tigers, though he collected just two hits, a walk, and a stolen base while striking out three times in 11 trips to the plate during his three-game stint in the majors.

Davis remained in Detroit for the 2023 season but struggled badly at Triple-A early in the season, slashing .178/.289/.363 and making it into just 43 games before the club released him back in June. Now back with the team that drafted him nearly a decade ago, Davis figures to provide the Dodgers with a depth option in the upper minors going forward. The 26-year-old boasts experience at all four infield spots and all three outfield spots, though he’s spent most of his time on the left side of the infield to this point in his career.

As for Okey, the 29-year-old was a second-round pick by the Reds back in 2016 and slowly worked his way up the minor league ladder, eventually reaching Triple-A in 2019. After the aforementioned layoff in 2020, Okey managed a respectable .237/.330/.379 slash line in 2021 before making his big league debut the following June. Okey’s time in the majors that season lasted just seven games, however, before he was designated for assignment and spent the rest of the season back at Triple-A.

After electing minor league free agency that winter, Okey caught on with the Angels on a minor league deal. An early-season injury to Logan O’Hoppe provided a potential opportunity for Okey at the big league level but the club ultimately relied primarily on the services of Matt Thaiss and Chad Wallach until O’Hoppe returned in August, with Okey appearing in just two games at the big league level. He struck out in both of his plate appearances in the majors last year, though he did manage to hit a respectable .281/.345/.414 in 235 trips to the plate with the club’s Triple-A affiliate last year.

Going forward, Okey will remain in southern California with the Halos’ geographic rival in L.A. as a depth option behind the plate. The club seems largely set behind the plate thanks to the long-standing tandem of Will Smith and Austin Barnes, but the presence of Okey could allow the club to avoid rushing a prospect like Diego Cartaya, Hunter Feduccia, or Dalton Rushing to the majors in the event of an injury.

Dodgers Hire Raul Ibanez In Baseball Operations

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The Dodgers have hired Raúl Ibañez as their vice president of baseball development and special projects, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. He returns to the L.A. organization, where he worked in Andrew Friedman’s front office between 2016-20.

Ibañez had a 19-year playing career in the major leagues. The left-handed hitting outfielder suited up with the Mariners, Royals, Phillies, Yankees and Angels between 1996-2014. He played through his age-42 campaign and remained in the sport almost immediately after hanging up his spikes. He was a finalist in the Rays managerial search within weeks of his retirement but ultimately backed out of the running. (Things worked out well for Tampa Bay, who ended up hiring Kevin Cash.)

After one year off, he joined the Dodgers in a special assistant capacity. Ibañez would hold that position for five seasons before moving to the MLB offices. He joined the league as a senior vice president of on-field operations. Ibañez was among a number of recently retired players working alongside the commissioner on various initiatives — in his case, primarily with regards to rules and on-field technology.

Ibañez spent three seasons in that role. The 51-year-old now heads back to the team side, reuniting with many former colleagues in Los Angeles. Whether this could set the stage for an eventual jump to a more significant front office or coaching position remains to be seen. In addition to the Rays, Ibañez has been mentioned in managerial searches in Houston, San Francisco and with the Yankees and Cubs over the years.

Cubs Acquire Michael Busch, Yency Almonte

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The Dodgers and Cubs announced a trade sending rookie infielder Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte from Los Angeles to Chicago for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope. The deal clears a pair of 40-man roster spots for L.A. — one of which will go Teoscar Hernández once his free agent pact is finalized. The Cubs designated catcher Brian Serven for assignment in a corresponding move.

Busch has the more significant value of the players headed to Chicago. Los Angeles selected the UNC product with the 31st overall pick in the 2019 draft. Regarded as a bat-first prospect with questions about his defensive fit, Busch has mostly lived up to that billing during his time in the minors.

Over parts of four seasons, the left-handed hitter owns a .283/.390/.529 line. That includes a robust .293/.385/.544 showing in just under 1000 plate appearances at Triple-A. Busch has connected on 48 home runs and 58 doubles with an excellent 11.8% walk rate at the top minor league level. His 22.5% strikeout rate is closer to league average, but Busch has shown a strong combination of power and patience.

Despite his excellent Triple-A production, the 26-year-old hasn’t gotten much of an MLB opportunity. He didn’t reach the majors until last April. He appeared in 27 games scattered over the course of the season. Through his first 81 plate appearances, he hit only .167/.247/.292 with a pair of home runs. He struck out in a third of his trips.

There’s not much to be gleaned from such a small sample of MLB work. At the same time, that the Dodgers haven’t given Busch extended run is indicative of a few factors. The Dodgers have had strong position player groups in recent years. That’s an impediment to a young hitter, but L.A. had some questions at second base and left field last season. Were Busch regarded as a better defensive player, perhaps he’d have forced his way into the discussion at one or both of those spots.

L.A. has given Busch opportunities at a few positions in the minors. While he has played primarily second base, he’s also gotten work at both corner infield spots and in left field. Prospect evaluators have graded him as a below-average defender at every spot, raising questions about his athleticism and arm strength. Baseball America nevertheless ranked him as the top prospect in the Dodgers system this offseason on the strength of his offensive ceiling.

In some respects, the Cubs will face the same question on Busch as they do on Christopher Morel — where to find at-bats for a promising hitter who hasn’t defended well at any position. That’d most likely come at a corner infield spot or at DH. Morel projects for a starting role at either first base or DH. Some combination of Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are the top options at the hot corner. The Cubs could still pursue a free agent target at either spot — they’ve been tied to Rhys Hoskins and Matt Chapman this winter — but Busch adds an affordable, high-upside lefty bat to the mix.

Busch still has a pair of minor league option years, so he’s not a lock to open the season on the MLB roster. He’s at least three years from arbitration and won’t be eligible for free agency for at least six seasons. Future minor league assignments could push that back even further.

A secondary part of the return, Almonte steps into the middle relief corps. The 29-year-old righty pitched in 49 games a year ago, working to a 5.06 ERA across 48 innings. He struck hitters out at a solid 23.6% clip but issued free passes to more than 11% of opponents. That continues an up-and-down career for Almonte, who has three seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA and a trio of campaigns allowing more than five earned runs per nine.

Almonte and the Dodgers already agreed to a $1.9MM arbitration salary back in November. The Cubs will take on that near-$2MM sum to add a pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s sweeper that has generated a strong number of whiffs throughout his career. He’s out of options, so he’ll very likely have a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. The Cubs could control him via arbitration for the 2025 season as well.

To add immediate MLB help, Chicago parts with two promising lower-level players. Ferris, who turns 20 next week, was a second-round pick in the 2022 draft. A 6’4″ left-hander, he signed for a well overslot $3MM bonus as a high school prospect. Ferris made his professional debut last season, turning in a 3.38 ERA over 18 starts for Low-A Myrtle Beach. He punched out nearly a third of his opponents while walking almost 14% of batters faced.

As a young, lanky pitching prospect, it’s not particularly surprising that Ferris has yet to dial in his control. Baseball America praised a 93-95 MPH fastball and a pair of potential above-average or plus breaking balls this offseason, slotting him as the #10 prospect in the Chicago system. He’s a high-upside development play whose future will largely be determined by how well his command develops.

Hope was an overslot signee for $400K in the 11th round last summer. A left-handed hitting outfielder from a Virginia high school, he played in 11 rookie ball games after the draft. In a pre-draft report, BA wrote that Hope was among the fastest players in last year’s class. He’s regarded as a viable fit in center field with a line drive approach, although BA expressed trepidation about his aggressiveness at the dish.

Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported the Dodgers were discussing Almonte and Busch in trades with the Cubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed an Almonte deal was agreed upon. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Dodgers were receiving two players not on the 40-man roster, which Toribio specified included a highly-regarded pitching prospect. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 was first to report L.A. would receive Ferris and Hope.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
  • Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Dodgers To Sign Elieser Hernández To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers are signing right-hander Elieser Hernández to a minor league deal, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The deal for the MVP Sports Group client includes an invite to major league Spring Training.

Hernández, 29 in May, didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2023. He was acquired by the Mets from the Marlins in a December 2022 trade but began the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain. He was activated from the IL in July and optioned to the minors, but was recalled shortly thereafter and placed on the IL with a right pectoral strain. He finished the year having tossed just 9 1/3 innings in the minors, then was outrighted off the roster in November and elected free agency.

He has shown flashes of promise in previous seasons, but often with health getting in the way. He posted a 3.16 ERA in 2020, but in just six starts due to a strained right latissimus dorsi. He then had a 4.18 ERA in 2021, but only made 11 starts, missing time due to right biceps inflammation and a right quad strain. Over those two seasons, he struck out 26.3% of batters and gave out walks at just a 5.7% clip. But his ERA jumped to 6.35 in 2022 before he endured the mostly lost season last year.

The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to sign players with injury concerns, betting on the talent showing up with some luck on the health side. Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Jimmy Nelson, J.P. Feyereisen and Alex Reyes are just a few recent examples of players that the club has taken a chance on. In the case of Hernández, there’s no risk in bringing him aboard via this minor league deal and seeing what form he’s in once Spring Training rolls around. If he does make the roster, he can’t be optioned down to the minors since he has over five years of service time. He was worked as both a starter and reliever in his career but the lack of health will perhaps nudge towards spending more time in the bullpen.

Dodgers Sign Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have continued their free agent spending spree, announcing a one-year, $23.5MM deal with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.  Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39.  Hernandez is represented by Republik Sports.

Reports about the Dodgers’ interest in Hernandez surfaced soon after the free agent market opened back in early November, and L.A. maintained that interest all the way up until today’s agreement.  The Dodgers were known to be still be looking for a right-handed bat, and they’ve now addressed that need in a big way with a former All-Star and Silver Slugger who has hit 147 home runs over 3002 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season.

After a string of productive years with the Blue Jays, Hernandez was dealt for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko last offseason, and Hernandez’s move to Seattle resulted in a downturn in his production.  While he still went yard 26 times, Hernandez batted only .258/.305/.435 over 678 plate appearances, and his 105 wRC+ was well below his 133 wRC+ from 2020-22.  Since Hernandez’s underlying metrics were largely the same as his career norms, it seems possible that the biggest culprit was simply T-Mobile Park.  Hernandez hit only .217/.263/.380 in the Mariners’ home ballpark last season, as opposed to a much stronger .295/.344/.486 slash line on the road.

While Dodger Stadium has something of a pitcher-friendly reputation itself, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old Hernandez might get back on track in a new environment, and this one-year deal might reflect his desire to re-establish himself before committing to a longer-term contract.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hernandez 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a four-year, $80MM deal, under the logic that the offseason’s lack of premium bats would still lead to a big contract for Hernandez even in the wake of an underwhelming 2023 campaign.

It could also be the case that Hernandez was open to a one-year pact specifically to join the Dodgers, as the outfielder is now joining arguably baseball’s most loaded lineup.  Los Angeles already racked up plenty of runs in their 100-win 2023 campaign, and that powerful collection of position players has now added Shohei Ohtani to the DH spot and Hernandez to a corner outfield role.

Hernandez now gets to join a contender and possibly win a World Series ring, while ideally posting a better platform year that would allow him to score a big multi-year contract next winter.  The Angels and Red Sox were two other teams known to be in the running for Hernandez’s services, and reporter Francys Romero and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X links) each relayed that those teams had interest in the outfielder on two-year deals.  In Boston’s case, Cotillo wrote that the Sox were interested in something akin to a two-year, $28MM pact.

Hernandez now looks to be the Dodgers’ everyday option primarily in left field, though he could slide over to right field when a left-hander is on the mound (thus sending Jason Heyward to the bench).  L.A. is still perhaps a little unbalanced with left-handed hitters in its first-choice lineup, yet Hernandez now joins Mookie Betts and Will Smith as big righty swingers, plus the Dodgers have other right-handed bats in Chris Taylor, Manuel Margot, and Miguel Rojas available off the bench.

Margot was also recently acquired as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Rays but is known more for his defense than his bat.  Taylor can fill in at multiple positions, and his hitting also became a question mark after a down year in 2022, though he did bounce back with a 104 wRC+ over 384 PA last season.  Having Taylor as a supersub around the diamond is perhaps a better use for his skillset than a regular spot in left field, even if defensive metrics have been mixed at best about Hernandez’s outfield glovework during his career.

Hernandez has never drawn many walks during his career, and his high strikeout totals add even more swing-and-miss to a team that already saw Taylor, James Outman, Max Muncy, and even Ohtani rank well below the league average in strikeout rate in 2023.  Still, the relative lack of contact is something of a minor flaw compared to the huge upside provided by the Dodgers’ overall offensive attack.

The deferred money will lower the luxury tax number on Hernandez’s $23.5MM salary, but his signing represents yet another big expenditure for a Los Angeles team that has basically lapped the rest of the league combined in offseason spending.  Led by Ohtani’s $700MM deal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract, the Dodgers have now spent slightly under $1.067 billion on free agents alone this winter, to say nothing of the extra money taken on when L.A. acquired and then extended Glasnow.  As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2024 now sits at roughly $302.32MM, well over the Competitive Balance Tax’s highest penalty threshold of $297MM.

Even with the luxury tax bill continuing to escalate, there is little reason to think L.A. is done making moves, as starting pitching continues to be a need even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.  More signings obviously can’t be ruled out, or the Dodgers could move more young talent in other trades for another starter.  The sky is basically the limit for Los Angeles at this point, as the Dodgers have outpaced even their usual high-spending ways (with the many deferrals kicking the financial can down the road to some extent) in building a veritable superteam with Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, and Freddie Freeman among the cornerstones.

Reporter Moises Fabian (via X) was first with the news that Hernandez had signed with Los Angeles, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X links) reported details about the one-year term, the salary, and the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Pham, Harrison, Rockies, D’Backs

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Tommy Pham could be one of Dodgers’ targets as the team looks for a right-handed hitting outfielder, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio writes.  The L.A. lineup is heavy on left-handed batters overall, and another righty bat might be needed in the outfield in particular with James Outman and Jason Heyward slated for the bulk of at-bats in center and right field.  Chris Taylor and Manuel Margot (both righty swingers) will be in the mix for left field work and, in Margot’s case, more of a general backup role.  Prospect Miguel Vargas will also get a look in left field, yet adding a more proven bat to this group would only enhance what is already a loaded Dodgers roster.

Pham has been on the Dodgers’ radar before, and would come at a lower cost than another rumored Los Angeles target in Teoscar Hernandez.  Pham is coming off another productive season that saw him hit .256/.328/.446 with 16 homers over 481 combined plate appearances with the Mets and Diamondbacks, and he hit very well for Arizona in the NLDS and World Series.

More from the NL West…

  • Top Giants prospect Kyle Harrison has been speculatively floated as a trade candidate, especially after reports surfaced last month that the club was considering dealing from its stock of young pitching.  However, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi all but officially closed the door on a Harrison swap, telling The Athletic’s Tim Kawakami in a podcast interview that “I can’t imagine any plausible scenario where we would move Kyle.  He kind of embodies everything we’re hoping to be the next few years.  He’s a local guy, he’s a homegrown talent, drafted and developed in our organization….Is a great kid, great competitor, has All-Star, Cy Young potential in our mind.  Works really hard.  Those are the kinds of guys you want to build around.”
  • It appears as though Major League Baseball could be handling Rockies broadcasts next season, according to The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders.  An official announcement could come as early as this week, though it isn’t yet clear if the Rox or the league have found a local cable partner to carry games on actual television, as opposed to just online availability on MLB.tv.  Colorado’s games used to be shown on the AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain regional sports network, though since that network is ceasing operations, the Rockies are in need of a new broadcasting partner for 2024 and beyond.
  • The Diamondbacks are continuing to look for more hitting on both the trade and free agent markets, GM Mike Hazen told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other reporters.  “My gut tells me it’s going to come via the free agent route, but we have had some active conversations about trades and now that we’re through the new year I’m curious to see if that dialogue picks up and if there’s more opportunity in the trade market, too,” Hazen said.  The general manager reiterated that the team is open to either right-handed or left-handed hitter, as the Diamondbacks’ initial need for right-handed bats has now been addressed by re-signing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and trading for Eugenio Suarez.

Six Teams Interested In Ryan Brasier

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Free agent reliever Ryan Brasier is drawing interest from at least six different teams, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Goold writes that the Cardinals and Dodgers are involved in the market, while Heyman writes that the Angels, Cubs, Orioles, and Rangers also have interest.

Brasier has already pitched for both Los Angeles teams, as he made his MLB debut with nine innings for the Angels back in 2013 and then seemingly got his career back on track with the Dodgers last season.  The right-hander posted a 6.16 ERA over 83 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2021 and in the first two months of the 2022 campaign before he was released, and then signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in June.

Secondary metrics (especially in 2022) indicated that Brasier was pitching better than his ERA would indicate, and the turn-around came once he donned Dodger Blue.  L.A. selected Brasier’s contract in late June and he was almost untouchable the rest of the way, posting an 0.70 ERA over 38 2/3 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen.  Brasier had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and 51.1% grounder rate as a Dodger — all major improvements over his numbers in Boston last year, though Brasier also enjoyed a .183 BABIP in Los Angeles, as opposed to a .344 BABIP with the Red Sox.

As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings explored in August, Brasier started throwing a cutter for the first time in his career and the results were immediate.  Not only did batters hit only .152 against Brasier’s new offering, he noted that “having another pitch to get guys off certain other pitches.  But (while) working on the cutter, some other stuff started to come back.”

The cutter’s effectiveness adds yet another wrinkle to the up-and-down nature of Brasier’s career.  After his cup of coffee with the Angels in 2013, he didn’t return to the majors until 2018, as the righty spent the interim years pitching with the Athletics’ Triple-A team and with the Hiroshima Carp in Japan.  Brasier returned to North America by signing a minors deal with the Red Sox in 2018, and he unexpectedly emerged as a key bullpen weapon for the eventual World Series champions.  Brasier had a 1.60 ERA over 33 2/3 regular-season innings for the Sox that season, plus a 1.04 ERA in 8 2/3 postseason frames.

The remainder of Brasier’s time in Boston was much shakier, as he ended up with a 4.55 ERA over his 209 2/3 career innings in a Red Sox uniform.  As he now enters his age-36 season, however, Brasier again seems like an intriguing relief option given how well he pitched with the Dodgers.  His age and somewhat inconsistent track record could limit him to a one-year contract, yet with so much interest in his market, Brasier might be able to land some type of option for the 2025 season depending on how sold teams are with his late-season performance.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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