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NL West Notes: Melvin, Haniger, Musgrove, Rojas

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With the Giants looking for a new manager and Bob Melvin’s future with the Padres perhaps in question, there has already been speculation that the two situations could be simultaneously resolved by Melvin leaving San Diego to take over the Giants’ dugout.  Melvin is both from the Bay Area and is both a former Giants player (1986-88) and A’s manager (2011-21).  It was during that stint in Oakland that Melvin worked with Farhan Zaidi, when the Giants’ current president of baseball operations was a member of the Athletics’ front office.

Melvin is under contract for the 2024 season, so the Padres would have to fire the skipper to allow him to change jobs.  While there have been plenty of rumblings that Melvin might be replaced, the possibility that he might immediately join a division rival could complicate the situation for the Padres, and they might explore the possibility of some kind of trade if the Giants did have interest in hiring the veteran manager.  A meeting of Padres officials is set to take place Monday, so some kind of resolution to Melvin’s status in San Diego could possibly be coming pretty quickly.

More from around the NL West…

  • In other Giants news, the club placed Mitch Haniger on the 10-day injured list yesterday (retroactive to September 26) due to a lower back strain.  The move will officially end Haniger’s season, a disappointing campaign that saw the outfielder hit .209/.266/.365 over 229 plate appearances.  The limited playing time is certainly a factor, as Haniger played in only 61 games due to a right forearm fracture that cost him roughly 2.5 months of the season, as well as an oblique injury in Spring Training that delayed his 2023 debut until April 24.  Signed to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal last winter, Haniger can only hope for much better health heading into his second year in San Francisco.
  • Joe Musgrove hasn’t pitched since July 28 due to a bout of shoulder inflammation, as the Padres opted to shut Musgrove down rather than risk any further injury, as San Diego’s hopes of reaching the playoffs looked dim.  Musgrove provided Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune with a health update, saying that his shoulder is feeling good and that he is making “a very easy, slow progression” towards his normal offseason throwing routine.  In a pinch, Musgrove said he could have been able to pitch if the Friars had make the playoffs and reached the second round.  However, the right-hander will now look to rebound after an injury-riddled 2023, as Musgrove was limited to 98 innings due to his shoulder issue and a broken toe suffered during Spring Training.
  • X-rays were negative on Miguel Rojas’ left hand after the Dodgers infielder was hit by a Sean Hjelle pitch on Friday.  Rojas was removed from the game as a precaution, and manager Dave Roberts (speaking with Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters) feels Rojas will be okay, though he’ll undergo more testing today.  The Dodgers’ first-round bye means that they won’t begin their postseason run until October 7, giving Rojas plenty of time to heal up.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Giants, Heyward

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As the Rockies shift their focus towards the offseason, Kyle Newman of The Denver Post writes that the club is looking to “make up ground” regarding its pitching development and analytics department. While Newman notes strides the club has made recently in those departments, the news isn’t entirely good.

On the pitching side of things, the club has been successful in looking to diversify its stockpile of arms in the minor leagues rather than simply focusing on sinker-slider pitches as they have previously. That being said, one prospect tells Newman that the changes have left the club’s planning for the pitchers they draft as unfocused. What’s more, the rash of injuries the Rockies suffered in the big league rotation this year (including Tommy John surgery for rotation stalwarts Antonio Senzatela and German Marquez) exposed the club’s lack of upper-level pitching depth, a situation that has forced the club to aggressively target pitching help not only in the last two drafts but also at the trade deadline this year.

Looking at the club’s analytics department, while the organization is in the midst of constructing what Newman describes as an analytics-specific building the Rockies call “the Lab”, Newman points out that most organizations around the major leagues already have their own version of such a building. That leaves the project as little more than playing catch-up relative to other organizations. Another example of the Rockies working to merely catch up to the competition is seen in their analytics staff. While prospects in the organization tell Newman that there’s a newfound emphasis on providing the players with digestible data thanks to each level of the organization sporting an analytics coordinator who travels with the team, the Rockies still employ just 11 full-time analysts total, tied for the second-fewest in the majors.

Meanwhile, in a Q&A with the organization’s blog, Rockies GM Bill Schmidt discussed the club’s future and cited the club’s aggressive acquisition of pitching talent as a reason for optimism regarding the club’s future. “We’re trying to make ourselves better and improve our talent base, and along the way, hopefully some of those guys are going to help us,” Schmidt said, “I think we’ve added 38 pitchers over the last two years through trades, the draft and international signings. You would like to think that even if a third of those guys hit, it’s going to help us.”

When asked about organization goals for the Rockies headed into the offseason, Schmidt kept things relatively vague, acknowledging that the club is “not where we need to be by any means” but simply pointing to a need to add depth to the big league roster rather than naming specific areas the club is looking to improve headed into the offseason.

More from the NL West…

  • In losing director of pitching Brian Bannister to the White Sox as Chicago reworks its front office, the Giants have suffered a hefty loss to their pitching infrastructure. Evan Webeck of The Mercury News recently wrote about Bannister’s departure, noting that pitchers in the organization such as righty John Brebbia and veteran starter Alex Cobb were shocked to see the club let Bannister go, calling him a “miracle worker.” Webeck notes that the club seemingly plans to fill Bannister’s role by giving increased responsibility to other members of the club’s pitching infrastructure, with pitching coach Andrew Bailey and assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez both mentioned as key pitching minds who remain with the organization.
  • The Dodgers have utilized platoons aggressively to great success in their outfield this year, and perhaps no player embodies that success better than Jason Heyward. Heyward’s .270/.343/.481 slash line in 365 plate appearances this season is his best offensive performance since the shortened 2020 campaign, and his best since his rookie season back in 2010 over the course of a full season. That offensive surge is thanks to LA’s focus on optimizing his matchups in order to minimize his at-bats against left-handed pitchers. As a result, Heyward has taken just 27 plate appearances against lefties all season, allowing his career .268/.353/.435 slash line against righties to shine through. As noted by Jack Harris of the LA Times, the mutual appreciation between Heyward and the Dodgers organization lays the groundwork for a possible reunion in 2024 even as Heyward is slated to return to free agency come November. For Heyward’s part, he says it would be “an honor” to be asked to return to the team next season.

NL West Notes: Machado, Smith, Giants

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Right elbow surgery seems to be in the cards for Manny Machado, and the star third baseman shed a bit more light on his injury situation when speaking with The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters Friday.  According to his doctors, Machado said he’ll need 5-7 months of recovery time before he is able to both hit and field, meaning he’ll be limited in some capacity heading into Spring Training and potentially for the start of the Padres’ 2024 season.  This timeline is still pretty fluid since the nature of Machado’s surgery (for lateral epicondylitis or “tennis elbow”) is very rare among baseball players and among athletes in general, yet the procedure seems like the best method of correcting Machado’s longstanding injury.  Since Machado hits and throws from the right side, the elbow issue is keeping him from properly throwing, though he can still manage to hit, albeit with discomfort.

Rookies Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten have been handling third base while Machado has been limited to DH duty for the last three weeks, and it seems possible the Padres will look for some infield help (whether a short-term veteran third baseman or a more versatile utility type) this winter as a fill-in while Machado recovers.  The good news is that Machado has been adjusting well to a designated hitter role, hitting .302/.343/.571 with five home runs over 67 September plate appearances.  This includes four hits and two homers in yesterday’s 4-2 win over the Cardinals, which extended San Diego’s winning streak to eight games.  With the Padres still in the wild card picture, Machado has said he’ll try to keep playing through the pain unless the club is mathematically eliminated from the playoff race.

More from the NL West….

  • Speaking of playing through pain, Dodgers catcher Will Smith told 570 AM radio’s David Vassegh last weekend that he suffered “a broken rib and some oblique strain stuff” after being hit by a Jake Woodford pitch on April 30.  Smith didn’t miss any time and was still as productive as ever for the next few months, but he has struggled since the All-Star break, possibly due to lingering swing effects even though the healing process is now more complete.  “There was probably a little bit of guarding [the injury] initially after. And then when you’re talking about the rib, the oblique, that sort of dovetails into some changed mechanics,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told the Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris and other reporters.  Smith has been doing extra work with the team’s hitting coaches to try and fix the problem before the postseason begins, since beyond just the lack of production, he probably won’t have the benefit of DH days in the playoffs as the Dodgers will try to field their first-choice lineup in every game.
  • The Giants’ heavy use of openers/bulk pitchers and platoons around the diamond is meant to maximize production, with the club’s 107-win season in 2021 serving as an example of how smoothly these tactics work.  However, San Francisco had a .500 record last season and is an even 77-77 this year, which also shows the drawbacks of the strategy.  As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the Giants’ usage of many of their players “seems almost designed to demonstrate a lack of faith in them,” which has caught the notice of scouts and other personnel from around baseball.  “Psychologically, you’re telling players they’re not good enough.  So why would free agents want to go there?,” one source rhetorically asked.  Slusser figures some changes will be made to the coaching staff this winter, though manager Gabe Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are likely to be retained, as team chairman Greg Johnson said just last week.  Kapler’s hands-off managerial style is discussed by a few Giants players (named and unnamed) within Slusser’s piece, and one unnamed veteran player felt the front office should’ve shown more trust in the club by being more active at the trade deadline.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • What can the Tigers do about Spencer Turnbull? (16:45)
  • Will the Athletics change their spending habits after they move to Las Vegas? (22:00)
  • Why is the American League Central always so bad and will that ever change? (25:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
  • MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here
  • The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here

Dodgers Select Kyle Hurt

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5:48pm: Los Angeles has officially announced Hurt’s promotion. Victor Gonzalez was optioned in a corresponding move. To create space on the 40-man roster, L.A. transferred Varland to the 60-day injured list. His season is over because of a knee issue.

12:43pm: The Dodgers are planning to select the contract of right-hander Kyle Hurt, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’s started 16 games in the minors this year (plus another nine relief outings) but will work primarily out of the bullpen in Los Angeles.

Hurt, 25, was a fifth-round pick by the Marlins in 2020 who went to Los Angeles alongside lefty Alex Vesia in a trade that sent Dylan Floro from L.A. to Miami. The 6’3″, 240-pound righty posted fairly nondescript numbers in his first two professional seasons but has put himself on the prospect map in 2023 with 88 1/3 innings of 3.87 ERA ball and, more interestingly, a ridiculous 39% strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A. As is often the case, that ability to miss bats at an elite level is accompanied by some shaky command (11% walk rate). Still, Hurt’s strikeout rate is the highest among the 613 minor league pitchers with at least 70 innings so far in 2023.

To his credit, Hurt has tamped down that walk rate a bit since moving up the minor league ladder. After walking 11.8% of his opponents in Double-A this year, he’s issued walks at a much tidier 8.6% clip in 23 1/3 Triple-A frames. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate jump from 44.2% in Double-A to 52.1% in Triple-A.

As a college arm (USC) who was drafted in 2020, Hurt was a lock to be added to the Dodgers’ 40-man roster this winter, as opting not to do so would’ve left him eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. The Dodgers were never going to leave an arm capable of missing bats at this level unprotected, so one way or another, his contract would’ve been selected sooner than later. They’ll opt to take a look at Hurt down the stretch and evaluate him for a possible role in the postseason bullpen. While Hurt wasn’t on the 40-man roster at the time the postseason eligibility deadline passed back on Sept. 1, he can be added to the roster as a replacement for any number of injured Dodgers, by virtue of the fact that he was at least in the organization prior to Sept. 1.

The Dodgers have a staggering ten relievers currently on the 15-day or 60-day injured list. Each of Yency Almonte, Tyler Cyr, J.P. Feyereisen, Daniel Hudson, Joe Kelly, Jimmy Nelson, Alex Reyes, Wander Suero, Blake Treinen and Gus Varland is currently shelved with an injury. They’ve patched things together with a characteristic hodgepodge of little-known names and veteran reclamation projects, getting key innings from waiver-wire closer Evan Phillips, minor league signee Ryan Brasier and resurgent veteran Shelby Miller — among others. Hurt will join that group and vie for a spot in the playoff bullpen with a big showing in the season’s final three weeks.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Candelario, Slater, Alvarez

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The Dodgers have decided to push the next start of veteran ace Clayton Kershaw to Friday, as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Kershaw was originally slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Padres. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that the decision to move Kershaw’s start wasn’t prompted by a physical issue, saying that the main goal in pushing his start back is lining up the rotation for the postseason.

As Plunkett notes, however, Kershaw’s workload has been carefully monitored by the Dodgers ever since he returned from a six-week sojourn on the injured list due to shoulder issues. Kershaw has not pitched beyond the fifth inning since returning and has eclipsed 80 pitches in a start just once. Plunkett also spoke with pitching coach Mark Prior regarding Kershaw’s dip in velocity since returning, with Prior calling the drop below 90 mph on Kershaw’s fastball “surprising,” though he added that Kershaw maintains that his shoulder feels fine.

If there’s any concerns regarding Kershaw’s ability to start playoff games deep into the postseason, it certainly makes sense for the Dodgers to manage his workload carefully down the stretch. The club has a massive 13 game lead in the NL West, essentially guaranteeing them a division title, while the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs give LA a whopping 99.8% chance to clinch a bye in the Wild Card round, allowing them to move directly into the NLDS. With regular season games rapidly waning in importance for the Dodgers and a rotation featuring Kershaw, Lance Lynn (6.09 ERA in 28 starts) and a trio of rookies led by Bobby Miller (3.98 ERA in 18 starts), it’s a no-brainer for the Dodgers to take as few risks with their 35-year-old ace’s arm as possible.

More from the National League…

  • Cubs infielder Jeimer Candelario exited today’s game against the Diamondbacks due to back tightness, as manager David Ross told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this evening, and will be re-evaluated tomorrow. Candelario has had a big rebound season since being non-tendered by the Tigers last winter, as the switch-hitter has slashed .254/.339/.475 in 553 trips to the plate split between the Nationals and Cubs this season. He’s cooled off a bit recently, slashing just .161/.257/.356 in his last 101 trips to the plate, but that month long cold stretch doesn’t change the fact that Candelario is a key piece of Chicago’s lineup alongside the likes of Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki as they look to return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018. Should Candelario miss time with the injury, the club figures to rely on Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom at third base.
  • Giants outfielder Austin Slater has been out of the lineup in recent days due to illness, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noting that the 30 year old visited a specialist recently and received vertigo medicine, which has helped to alleviate the dizziness and balance issues he had been struggling with. It’s been a bit of a down year for Slater, as he’s hit just .248/.328/.379 as he’s shifted to more of a part time role with San Francisco. Luis Matos has acted as the club’s primary center fielder in Slater’s absence.
  • Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez left today’s game against the Twins in the seventh inning after being struck in the hand by a pitch during the fifth inning. Fortuantely, Mike Puma of the New York Post noted that Alvarez underwent x-rays on his hand that came back negative, indicating the 21-year-old rookie avoided a serious injury. Alvarez took over as the club’s primary catcher following an early-season injury to veteran backstop Omar Narvaez and has performed solidly in the role, hitting .212/.288/.434 in 107 games. That stat line is good for a wRC+ of 98, ahead of quality regulars behind the plate like Alejandro Kirk, Yan Gomes, and Tyler Stephenson.

Dodgers Select Wander Suero, Place Gus Varland On 15-Day IL

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The Dodgers have placed right-hander Gus Varland on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right knee.  Taking Varland’s place is another righty, as Los Angeles has selected Wander Suero’s contract from Triple-A.

Suero inked a minor league deal with L.A. during the offseason, and this is the second time the Dodgers have selected him to the active roster.  His first stint saw him post an 8.10 ERA over four appearances and 6 2/3 innings, and Suero was then designated for assignment and outrighted back to Triple-A.  Because Suero entered the season with more than three years of MLB service time, he could’ve rejected that outright assignment and returned to free agency, but he instead opted to remain in the Dodgers organization.

Given all of the Dodgers’ pitching injuries, Suero might be able to carve out a bullpen role if he pitches well, though his selection might just represent a short-term way to get a fresh arm onto the roster.  It’s at least another look in the Show for Suero, who spent 2022 in the Angels’ farm system and in the Mexican League without seeing any big league action.  Prior to 2022, Suero tossed 185 1/3 relief innings for the Nationals from 2018-21, including 71 1/3 frames during Washington’s 2019 championship season.

Varland just pitched yesterday, and picked up the loss in the Dodgers’ 7-6 loss to the Nationals in 11 innings.  2023 is Varland’s first Major League season, as he has posted a 6.64 ERA over 20 1/3 combined innings with the Brewers and Dodgers.  Selected by Milwaukee from L.A. back in December during the Rule 5 Draft, the Brewers returned Varland to the Dodgers in May, and the righty has pitched a bit better in the Dodger Blue.  Varland has a 3.09 ERA in 11 2/3 frames with the Dodgers as opposed to an outsized 11.42 ERA in 8 2/3 innings with the Brewers, though given the small sample sizes and some similarly uninspiring peripherals on both teams, Varland’s improvement with the Dodgers might be more due to good fortune.

NL West Notes: Betts, Marte, Stripling, Lee

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Mookie Betts hasn’t played since suffering a bone bruise on his left foot on Thursday, though the superstar could be back in action as early as Monday when the Dodgers open a series against the Padres.  In the wake of the initial injury, the Dodgers put Betts through a battery of tests to ensure that his foot hadn’t incurred more serious damage, and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes that Betts was walking normally around the L.A. clubhouse yesterday.

The club is naturally being as cautious as possible with the MVP candidate, as it is hard to imagine Los Angeles making a serious postseason run without Betts wreaking havoc in the lineup.  The league leader in fWAR (7.9), Betts is hitting .314/.411/.609 with 38 homers over 610 plate appearances, and his ability to play second base and shortstop has been crucial for a Dodgers team that has been beset by middle-infield injuries since Spring Training.  Fortunately, it looks like Betts will be able to resume his dream season in short order, with an eye towards then helping the Dodgers capture another World Series championship. [UPDATE: Betts is in the Dodgers’ lineup today, leading off and playing second base.]

More from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks had a pair of injury scares in yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Cubs, as Ketel Marte fouled a ball off his right knee and Jordan Lawlar was hit in the right hand with a pitch.  Marte’s knock occurred in the first inning and he remained in the game until the seventh, with postgame x-rays coming back negative.  Manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Theo Mackie of the Arizona Republic) that Marte might not miss any time as long as his knee didn’t have continued soreness overnight.  Lawlar’s HBP occurred in the 10th inning, so an update on his status won’t come until Lovullo meets with the media today.
  • A mid-back strain has kept Ross Stripling from any MLB action since August 16, but the Giants right-hander told Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group that he is healthy and ready to return from the injured list.  However, Stripling feels “in limbo” and like he’s on the “phantom IL” due to a roster crunch, according to his conversations with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler.  “It’s bad luck of the timing that I’m healthy and Farhan likes the roster that he has.  And I’m just sitting here healthy with nowhere to go,” Stripling said.  Juggling a number of arms on the pitching staff, San Francisco has used an opener-heavy strategy for the last couple of months, perhaps leaving Stripling without a clear role with everyone healthy.  Kapler said the Giants “actually have a pretty good plan in place to have [Stripling] back on the roster sooner rather than later,” but didn’t give any specifics about a timeline.  It could be that the team simply prefers its other pitching options, as Stripling has a 5.29 ERA over 78 1/3 innings while battling back problems for much of the season.
  • The Padres are “viewed as a strong candidate to sign” Jung Hoo Lee this winter, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  Lee has been posting excellent numbers over seven seasons in the KBO League, and only just turned 25 years old last month.  The outfielder’s 2023 season was prematurely ended due to ankle surgery, but Lee is still expected to be posted to MLB teams by the Kiwoom Heroes, his KBO club.  The Padres have traditionally been aggressive on the international market, and they might have an extra recruiting advantage since Ha-Seong Kim is a close friend of Lee’s and a former teammate with the Heroes.

The Dodgers Grabbed An Elite Closer Off Waivers

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There are myriad reasons for the Dodgers’ decade-long run of excellence. They’ve added elite players via trade (Mookie Betts) and free agency (Freddie Freeman). Their strong player development pipeline has allowed them to consistently supplement their high-payroll, star-laden roster with controllable talent.

As with any good team, the Dodgers have also hit on less visible acquisitions. Jason Heyward has looked reinvigorated after cracking the L.A. roster following an offseason minor league pact. Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller have turned in solid results in the middle innings since being acquired at little cost. None of those have been as impactful as the August 2021 waiver claim of right-hander Evan Phillips.

Phillips had pitched in parts of four MLB seasons at the time. He’d debuted with the Braves and been included in the 2018 deadline deal that sent Kevin Gausman from the Orioles to Atlanta. Phillips flashed strikeout upside with the O’s over the next couple seasons but couldn’t consistently throw strikes. At the end of the 2020 campaign, a rebuilding Baltimore team put Phillips on waivers. He went unclaimed.

The reliever stayed in the O’s system until the following August. He was carrying an ERA a little above 5.00 in Triple-A when Baltimore released him. The Rays signed Phillips to a minor league deal, called him up for one three-inning outing, then pushed him back off the MLB roster. When he hit waivers for a second time, L.A. claimed him.

It seemed a nondescript move. Phillips had a 7.26 ERA in 49 career appearances. Relievers with swing-and-miss potential but control woes often change hands. Phillips was out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent to the minors without running through waivers. It seemed entirely possible he’d get quickly squeezed out of the Dodger bullpen the way he had been in Tampa Bay.

Phillips threw 10 1/3 unremarkable innings down the stretch. He was left off the playoff roster for the first two rounds before working three scoreless frames in an eventual NLCS loss to the Braves. He held his spot on the 40-man all winter and began last year in middle relief.

It only took a couple months for him to establish himself in a higher-leverage role. Phillips broke out with 63 innings of 1.14 ERA ball, the lowest mark of any reliever with 60+ frames. He struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters while cutting his walks to a lower than average 6.4% rate. While he didn’t dramatically increase the number of pitches he threw within the strike zone, he more consistently got hitters to chase pitches off the plate. Hitters’ rate of swings on would-be balls went up, while they began taking more pitches within the zone. He was giving opponents a much more uncomfortable at-bat.

Upon landing with the Dodgers, Phillips made a couple adjustments to his pitch mix. Against right-handed batters, he increasingly leaned on his slider — his best offering — while scaling back on his four-seam fastball. When facing southpaws, he dropped a split in favor of a low-90s cutter. He has dominated hitters of either handedness since that point.

Phillips was never likely to repeat a 1.14 ERA — that’s an almost impossible ask of any pitcher — but he has again been one of the game’s best relievers. He’s allowing only 2.18 earned runs per nine over 53 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate is down slightly but still well above-average at 29.9%. The Dodgers have increasingly used him in the ninth inning, and he’s responded with 22 saves (and six holds) while blowing a lead just twice.

Going back to the start of last season, Phillips leads MLB relievers (minimum 100 innings) with a 1.62 ERA. He’s 11th among that group in strikeout percentage and eighth in both strikeout/walk rate differential and SIERA. He’ll turn 29 on Monday but still has three more seasons of club control via arbitration. Phillips played last year on a near-minimum salary and is making $1.3MM this season as a Super Two qualifier.

The Dodgers will go into the postseason with perhaps their spottiest starting staff in years. Julio Urías is on administrative leave after a felony domestic violence arrest. Clayton Kershaw is pitching through shoulder discomfort. Lance Lynn continues to struggle with home runs. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin have undergone season-ending surgery. There’s a case that rookie Bobby Miller — who has all of 17 major league starts to his name — is L.A.’s most reliable starter at the moment.

That’ll very likely increase the pressure on the relief corps in October. The Dodgers have an above-average bullpen, with Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson joining Brasier, Miller and hopefully deadline acquisition Joe Kelly in bridging the middle innings. Dave Roberts figures to lean most heavily on Phillips, something no one would’ve projected when the Dodgers placed their claim a little over two years ago.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Walker Buehler Won’t Return This Year

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The Dodgers announced that right-hander Walker Buehler, who recently began a rehab assignment after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, won’t return to the club this year. He will instead focusing on getting healthy for 2024.

“My goal since last year has been to return to a major league mound this season,” Buehler says in a club statement. “After many conversations with my doctor, the Dodgers’ front office, training staff and my family, we concluded that waiting until next season is the right course of action. I am disappointed that I will not be able to help this team go after a title in the 2023 postseason, but I look forward to returning fully healthy in 2024 and bringing another World Series to L.A.”

Buehler, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in August of last year. Given that the recovery period for that procedure often pushes to 14 months or more, his ability to return in 2023 was questionable right from the get-go. Nonetheless, he planned to give it a try, saying earlier in the year that he was targeting a September return. That plan still seemed to be on track as recently as this weekend, when Buehler started a rehab assignment, tossing two innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday.

But it seems that Buehler, along with the various other parties he mentioned, have decided that it’s no longer feasible. It’s unclear exactly what the situation is, but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that there was no setback and that Buehler still feels good physically. He just hasn’t progressed enough and pushing himself in the next few weeks comes with too high a risk of re-injury.

While it sounds like both the pitcher and the club have agreed that prioritizing his long-term health is the sensible approach, it will be a significant challenge for the club in the short-term given the other challenges they are facing in the rotation. Dustin May required flexor tendon surgery earlier this year and Tony Gonsolin required Tommy John surgery not too long ago. Both of them are now out for the remainder of this year and at least part of next year as well. Julio Urías was placed on administrative leave earlier this week as the league investigates him for a possible domestic violence violation. His situation is unclear but it seems unlikely he will be returning anytime soon.

Those absences, along with today’s news about Buehler, make the rotation start to feel a bit flimsy. The Dodgers are in a healthy place overall with a record of 85-54, putting them 13 games up on the Diamondbacks in the division and eight games ahead of the Brewers for a bye through the first round of the playoffs. But starting pitching takes on magnified importance in the postseason when teams lean on their top pitchers more often.

The Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw on the active roster, though his health is a big question mark at the moment. He already missed over a month of the season, from early July to the middle of August, due to a shoulder issue. While on the IL, he spoke about how he felt fine but was being told to rest after undergoing an MRI. He’s now been back for over a month but it seems that situation is lingering.

Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic looked into the details this week, highlighting that Kershaw failed to hit 90 mph with his fastball at any point in his most recent outing, despite averaging over 91 mph with the pitch earlier in the year. Kershaw continues to assert that he feels fine, in spite of the clearly diminished stuff. Manager Dave Roberts conceded that Kershaw was still not 100% healthy but insisted he would continue to pitch. “He’s going to keep going until he can’t,” Roberts said. “If he is able to take the baseball, he’s going to take the baseball.”

There’s also Lance Lynn, acquired from the White Sox at the deadline, though he has an earned run average of 6.09 on the year. That mark was 6.47 with Chicago and he initially showed better results after changing jerseys, but he went on to allow 15 earned runs over his two most recent starts. Ryan Yarbrough has a 3.80 ERA but the club doesn’t seem to trust him beyond pitching bulk innings out of the bullpen.

Beyond them, the club is relying on rookies, with some encouraging results in there. Bobby Miller has a 3.80 ERA on the year in his 17 starts and Ryan Pepiot is at 0.86 in his four outings. On the less encouraging side, Emmet Sheehan has an ERA of 5.31 while Michael Grove is at 6.61 and currently rehabbing a lat strain.

All in all, there are plenty of questions in that mix, either due to health or a lack of experience or general ineffectiveness. Bringing Buehler back could have been a difference maker, as he has a 3.02 career ERA in the regular season and a 2.94 mark in the postseason. However, it seems that’s not in the cards and the Dodgers will have to cobble together a playoff rotation without him. Buehler will instead set his sights on the 2024 campaign, which will be important for him personally, as that will be his final arbitration season before he is slated to reach free agency.

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