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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

NL West Notes: Kelly, Pham, Dodgers, Padres, Preller

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Merrill Kelly’s gem of an outing in Game 2 has made him the talk of baseball, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal took a look back at the right-hander’s unique path to the World Series stage.  Beginning his career in the Rays’ farm system, Kelly signed with the KBO League’s SK Wyverns and spent four seasons pitching in South Korea, despite feeling an urge to return to North American baseball halfway through that stint.  Still, pitching in the KBO League sparked Kelly’s career to the point that Diamondbacks had interest in a free agent deal during the 2018-19 offseason, and Kelly signed a two-year, $5.5MM deal with club options attached for 2021 and 2022.

This was the only multi-year offer Kelly received that winter, so he jumped at the chance at some extra security as he made his MLB debut at age 30.  Between that initial contract and a subsequent extension signed prior to the 2022 season, Kelly’s time in Arizona has now included five seasons, at least $32.5MM in guaranteed salary, and now a key role in the postseason.  Kelly has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and 24 innings in these playoffs, and holds an interesting distinction as the first pitcher to earn a win in both the Korean Series (helping the Wyverns capture the 2018 title) and the World Series.

Some more from around the NL West….

  • Before the Diamondbacks picked up Tommy Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline, the Dodgers were known to be one of several other teams who considered acquiring the veteran outfielder.  Pham told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to join the Dodgers last offseason, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman twice turned down overtures from Pham’s agent, as L.A. was focused on adding a left-handed hitting outfielder instead.  David Peralta ended up being that lefty swinging outfielder, and while Peralta had a subpar season, Pham hit .256/.328/.446 over 481 combined PA with the Mets and D’Backs this season.  Pham has continued to contribute during Arizona’s playoff run, including a four-hit night in Game 2 of the World Series.
  • A.J. Preller’s management style as the Padres’ president of baseball operations has come under increased criticism due to the team’s disappointing 2023 season, as well as the reported discord between Preller and now-former manager Bob Melvin.  Preller spoke with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters about what he is looking for in hiring the Padres’ next skipper, with Acee adding details and anecdotes within the piece related to Preller’s approach, his (to some, overbearing) attention to detail, and the communication breakdown that occurred between Preller and Melvin over the last year.

James Outman, Breakout Man

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As a fan of dad joke-level wordplay, I was tempted to title this post “James Outman Came Outta Nowhere,” except that wasn’t really the case.  The Athletic’s Keith Law had Outman on his list (in 89th) of the 100 best prospects in baseball heading into the 2023 season, the outfielder tore up minor league pitching in 2021-22, and Outman even had a 1.409 OPS over the very small sample size of the 16 plate appearances he received with the Dodgers in 2022.  That put Outman in good stead to win a spot on Los Angeles’ Opening Day roster, and he indeed secured his place with a big Spring Training.

From there, it isn’t a stretch to call Outman one of the Dodgers’ most valuable players of 2023.  In fact, Outman and Will Smith tied for third on the club with 4.4 fWAR, as only NL MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman has more fWAR among all Dodgers position players.

The season had its share of ups and downs for Outman, as his hot start in April was followed up by a .551 OPS over 166 plate appearances in May and June.  Just when it looked like Outman might’ve just been a flash in the pan, his bat steadied once more, and he posted an .852 OPS over 292 PA over the remainder of the regular season.  It all added up to a .248/.353/.437 slash line and 23 home runs, which translated to a 118 wRC+.  Beyond the offense, Outman was also a stellar center field defender in the view of the Outs Above Average metric (+9), and the UZR/150 (+1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (+1) metrics at least had his glovework slightly above average.

This defensive performance ended up being particularly important given how center field might’ve otherwise been a big problem area for Los Angeles.  With Cody Bellinger gone to the Cubs in free agency, the Dodgers went into 2023 prepared to give Trayce Thompson a big chunk of center field time, as Thompson unexpectedly hit very well after coming to L.A. in 2022.  Thompson was slated for the majority of playing time up the middle, with a pair of left-handed bats (Outman and veteran minor league signing Jason Heyward) in position as complements for platoon purposes.

Unfortunately for Thompson, everything went downhill after a three-homer performance in his first game of the season.  Thompson struggled badly over the first two months and then missed two more months on the 60-day injured list due to an oblique strain before he was included in the trade package that brought Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox prior to the trade deadline.  Heyward was having a nice comeback year but had an increased amount of playing time in right field, as Mookie Betts was needed at second base and shortstop due to injuries in the Dodgers’ middle infield.

That left center field for Outman, who rose to the occasion.  Heyward, Chris Taylor, Jonny Deluca, and deadline pickup Enrique Hernandez chipped in for playing time, but by and large, Outman was the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder.  This looks to be the case heading into 2024 as well, even though the 26-year-old has some flaws to correct in his game.

The .343 BABIP could indicate some natural regression is in order, even if Outman has a lot of speed and can challenge for hits even on weak-ish contact.  This baserunning skill came in handy since Outman’s hard-contact numbers were nothing special — a 39.9% total that ranked in the 44th percentile of all hitters, even if his strong barrel and sweet-spot rates generated some power.  The bigger issues were a 31.9% strikeout rate that was among the worst in the league, and an overall lack of production against left-handed pitching.  Outman had just a .665 OPS over 154 PA against southpaws, compared to an .836 PA against righties.

These splits and the high strikeout totals also troubled Outman in the upper minors, and even Law’s positive scouting report praised Outman’s other tools but noted that “there’s too much swing and miss in the zone here to say he’ll be more than an average hitter.”  The obvious volatility within Outman’s numbers might make him a candidate for a sophomore slump, now that opposing teams have more of a book on him and know to keep throwing him breaking balls.

On the other hand, Outman could be partially shielded simply by becoming a bit more of a platoon player.  He’d still get the bulk of at-bats as the left-handed side of a center field platoon, but having a righty-swinger to split time would help Outman avoid southpaws.  As to who that right-handed center fielder might be, Taylor, Deluca, and Andy Pages are in the mix, even if Deluca might be the only real center field option of that group from a defensive standpoint.  Hernandez is a free agent and a candidate to be re-signed.  Betts might even factor in for the occasional cameo in center field, even if the Dodgers would ideally like to see Betts mostly back in his normal right field spot, and the middle infield shored up by a healthy Gavin Lux and perhaps a new acquisition to join veteran Miguel Rojas.

The Dodgers have enough pressing offseason needs that a platoon center fielder is relatively down their list of priorities, not to mention the fact that left field is a bigger question mark in the outfield alone.  That said, Outman’s emergence provides some major relief for Los Angeles, and gives hope that despite all the middle infield issues, the Dodgers can at least get some strength up the middle with a solid center field option.

NL West Notes: Christenson, Giants, Padres, Chapman, Soto, Kershaw

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Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco.  Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants.  Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.

It isn’t known what coaching roles Christenson and Williams might take with the Giants, though most of the (very large) staff was expected to stay in place.  Bench coach Kai Correa is under contract for next season, though Baggarly writes that the Giants are likely to give him permission to interview with other teams, so this could provide an opening for Christenson to just assume the bench coach job.  Mark Hallberg is the third base coach, and since the team thought highly enough of Hallberg to interview him for the manager’s job, the Giants could probably try to find space for both Hallberg and Williams on the staff.

More from around the NL West…

  • Also from Baggarly’s piece, he suggests that Matt Chapman could be a good fit as a free agent target for the Giants this winter.  Of course, Chapman played under Melvin for years with the A’s, and beyond that recruiting link, adding Chapman would solidify a proper everyday player within a San Francisco lineup that has perhaps suffered for having too many platoon players and moving parts in recent years.  Chapman’s stellar glove would instantly upgrade the Giants’ struggling defense, and put less fielding pressure on Marco Luciano (possibly the next regular shortstop in the Bay).  J.D. Davis and possibly Casey Schmitt would then become trade chips for San Francisco if Chapman was installed at the hot corner.
  • With the Cubs and Yankees both already rumored to be eyeing Juan Soto this offseason, the trade speculation about the Padres star isn’t likely to end until he is either extended by San Diego, or until a trade actually happens.  Of course, it isn’t yet clear if the Padres are willing to move Soto at all this winter, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner hears from a league source that if Soto is dealt, it might not happen until closer to the trade deadline.  Dealing Soto that late would naturally reduce the trade package San Diego would receive in return, yet for a Padres team desperate to contend in 2024, they might first want to see if they can get on track with Soto in the lineup before considering a deal.
  • Clayton Kershaw has one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers in each of the last two offseasons, and it has been widely known that Kershaw was choosing between only retirement, returning to Los Angeles, or possibly signing with his hometown Rangers.  While Kershaw opted to keep playing in L.A. on both occasions, Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Texas’ breakout success now makes it a tougher decision for Kershaw, as the Rangers have now shown that their willingness to spend can translate to championship contention.

MLBTR Podcast: Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
  • Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
  • What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
  • Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
  • Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
  • The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
  • The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​

Luis Avilan Retires

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Reliever Luis Avilán has retired, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The Venezuela native pitched in parts of 10 big league seasons with seven teams.

Avilán began his career as an amateur signee with the Braves. He debuted with Atlanta in 2012 and pitched his first three-plus seasons there. Avilán allowed 2.00 earned runs per nine in 36 innings as a rookie and turned in his career season in the second year. He posted a 1.52 ERA through a personal-high 65 frames in 2013 and tacked on 2 2/3 scoreless in the postseason.

After another year and a half in the Atlanta bullpen, Avilán was moved to the Dodgers in a massive 13-player, three-team 2015 deadline deal that also sent Alex Wood to Los Angeles. Avilán spent two and a half years in Southern California. He saw postseason action in both 2015 and ’16 before pitching to a 2.93 ERA over 46 regular season innings in 2017.

Going into the following season, Avilán was involved in another three-team deal. This one — orchestrated between the White Sox, Dodgers and Royals — landed him in Chicago. He’d pitch for five teams over the next four seasons, suiting up with the White Sox, Phillies, both New York franchises and Nationals. His 2021 campaign with Washington was cut short after four outings by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

That ultimately brought his major league career to an end. Avilán re-signed with the Nats on a minor league deal last year, spending the bulk of the season in Triple-A. He was out of professional baseball entirely this past season and, at age 34, has decided to step away.

Avilán concludes with a 3.43 ERA in 354 major league innings. He recorded 319 strikeouts and kept the ball on the ground for just under half the batted balls he allowed. A situational lefty, he collected 85 holds while limiting same-handed batters to a .204/.279/.281 slash line through nearly 700 plate appearances. MLBTR congratulates Avilán on a decade-long run in the majors and sends our best wishes in his post-playing days.

Guardians Interview Clayton McCullough In Managerial Search

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The Guardians have interviewed Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough as they search for a new manager, reports Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. He joins Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz and Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as known candidates to meet with Cleveland brass.

McCullough, 44 in December, has never managed at the major league level. He has seven years of managerial experience in the minors, however, working at the lower levels of the Blue Jays’ system between 2007-13. He signed with Los Angeles as a minor league field coordinator in 2015. The Dodgers added him to Dave Roberts’ staff at the start of the 2021 season.

Before his coaching days, McCullough spent some time in the Cleveland organization. An East Carolina product, he was selected by the Indians in the 22nd round of the 2002 draft as a catcher. He played 104 games over parts of four minor league seasons.

This isn’t the first time McCullough has drawn attention in a major league managerial search. He interviewed with the Mets during the 2021-22 offseason for the position that eventually went to Buck Showalter. McCullough was reportedly a finalist in the Royals’ hiring process last winter. Kansas City ultimately tabbed Matt Quatraro off the Rays’ coaching staff.

Cleveland is embarking on a managerial search for the first time in over a decade after Terry Francona stepped aside. While the three known interviewees are all from outside the organization, Hoynes lists a few internal candidates under consideration. The front office has considered minor league field coordinator John McDonald, hitting coach Chris Valaika, and player development director Rob Cerfolio as potential candidates, although it’s unclear which of that group will receive a formal interview. First base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. has already taken himself out of the running; according to Hoynes, third base coach Mike Sarbaugh has not been asked to interview.

Wander Suero Elects Free Agency

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Reliever Wander Suero has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Dodgers, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. There’d been no prior indication Suero was on waivers. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster.

Los Angeles inked Suero to a minor league contract last offseason. He’d spend the majority of the season with their Triple-A team in Oklahoma City. The 32-year-old righty pitched in 47 games for OKC, working to a 3.26 ERA through 49 2/3 innings. That was the eighth-best run prevention mark among the 127 pitchers to surpass 40 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Suero fanned just under 26% of opposing hitters in Triple-A, although he also handed out free passes at an alarming 11.2% clip. The Dodgers selected him onto the big league roster twice. He pitched eight innings of seven-run ball, punching out nine while walking five. He leaned mostly on a cutter that averaged 90.6 MPH during his abbreviated MLB look.

This was Suero’s first major league work in two years. He pitched for the Nationals from 2018-21, logging a career-high 71 1/3 innings for the 2019 World Series team. He posted slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers during his time in Washington. Suero managed a sub-4.00 ERA in two of his first three seasons before a homer spike in 2021 led to a 6.33 ERA in 42 2/3 frames.

Suero has over three years of MLB service and would have been eligible for arbitration. While his projected $900K salary wasn’t significant, he always seemed in jeopardy of losing his spot on the 40-man roster. He’s likely to sign another minor league deal this offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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A relatively quiet offseason a year ago didn’t stop the Dodgers from continuing their incredible run of regular season success. But after another disappointing playoff performance, perhaps they will be more aggressive this winter. There are many ways to do that, but the big question is whether or not they land the most unique free agent in history.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF: $295MM through 2032
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $108MM through 2027
  • Chris Taylor, 1B/OF: $30MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option)
  • Miguel Rojas, IF: $6MM through 2024 (includes buyout on ’25 option)
  • Tony Gonsolin, RHP: $5.4MM through 2024 (eligible for two more arbitration years after that)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $3.5MM through 2024 (includes ’25 option with no buyout)

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $18MM option on RHP Lance Lynn with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $14MM option on IF Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Club holds $9.5MM option on RHP Joe Kelly with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $6.5MM option on RHP Daniel Hudson with no buyout
  • Club holds $3MM buyout on RHP Alex Reyes with $100K buyout
  • Club holds option between $1MM and $7MM on Blake Treinen, depending on health

2024 financial commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $98.9MM
Total future commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $461.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Yarbrough, Almonte, Suero

Free Agents

The Dodgers had a fairly quiet offseason after 2022, limiting themselves to one-year free agents like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez. That led some observers to predict that they could be dethroned in the West by the Padres, who had a far louder winter, or perhaps an upstart Diamondbacks club. But the Dodgers had yet another excellent season, winning 100 games for the fourth straight full season and fifth out of the last six. They won the West division title for the 10th time out of the last 11 seasons, with their only second-place finish being the 106-win club in 2021 getting edged out by the 107-win Giants.

There’s no question they’ve been the most consistently good regular season club over the past decade-plus, but the postseason is another matter. All of those playoff berths have resulted in just one title, which was in the shortened 2020 season, and they’ve been quickly bounced out of the NLDS in each of their past two trips.

Perhaps that will lead the club to make some more noise this winter, which they have the ability to do. They’ve been one of the top spenders in the past decade but have generally avoided long-term commitments. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players under contract beyond 2025 and each of those two are continuing to play at MVP-caliber levels, meaning there’s almost no dead money on the books.

In terms of 2024, Roster Resource estimates their current payroll around $126MM, which includes the MLBTR arbitration projections. A few non-tenders could drop that closer to $120MM, particularly if they let go of Yarbrough, who was cut by the Rays at this time a year ago. Their luxury tax figure would be under $140MM if they did indeed cut Yarbrough. That gives the Dodgers plenty of room to be aggressive this winter, as they have frequently run Opening Day payrolls in the $240-280MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to reset their luxury tax status after paying the tax in the past two years, they could add about $100MM before getting near this year’s $237MM base threshold.

The Dodgers are likely to be one of many teams drawing up two distinct offseason plans, one that involves signing Shohei Ohtani and one that doesn’t. The most unique player in baseball history is about to become the most unique free agent in baseball history, with many pegging the Dodgers the most likely landing spot. Ohtani has frequently mentioned a desire to win as a priority and the Dodgers would have a compelling case in that department.

Of course, Ohtani will surely want to be compensated at a fair rate as well, but there’s nothing preventing the Dodgers from doing that. As mentioned, they have plenty of spending room both for the coming year and well into the future. It has been speculated that Ohtani might lean towards a West Coast club, since that was his preference when first coming over from Japan. At that time, he was limited by the amateur bonus pool system and was only going to be able to pull in a few million bucks, meaning that such a preference wouldn’t impact his earning power. Now he will be motivated to express an interest in any club, as expanding his market will help him secure the biggest possible guarantee. But if he privately holds onto that West Coast preference, it would only help the Dodgers.

It’s possible there are other factors that could work against them, at least speculatively. Ohtani hasn’t interacted with English-language media very much during his time as an Angel, at least compared to other superstars in the game. It has been speculated that moving to a bigger market club would make it harder for him to maintain that relative spotlight reluctance. Whether that’s something that actually matters to him can’t really be known.

There’s also the question of Ohtani’s leash to continue pitching deeper into his career. There’s no precedent for anything Ohtani does and different clubs will probably have different ideas about how long they want him to continue with the full two-way workload. Now that he’s coming off a second career Tommy John surgery, or something close to it, that only raises further questions about how he will hold up into his 30s. Some clubs may want to give him free rein to start for as long as he wants, others might have ideas about when a move to the bullpen will be warranted or when it would be time to stop pitching altogether. If the pitching eventually needs to stop, some clubs may view him as a viable outfielder, a position he played in Japan. Others might prefer to just keep him as a designated hitter as he ages.

It’s can’t really be known how the Dodgers view these matters, but these are things that will likely come up in offseason discussions with Ohtani and his reps. Ohtani is hitting free agency ahead of his age-29 season, two years younger than Aaron Judge was before his free agency. Since Judge was able to secure a nine-year deal, Ohtani will very likely be able to get into the double digits. Even though he’ll be a DH only in 2024, teams will undoubtedly be enticed by his potential return to being a two-way player, as well as the international marketing opportunities he can provide. But in the short-term, the free agency of Martinez means that the Dodgers have an open DH spot they can easily slot Ohtani into.

Gauging Ohtani’s interest in being a Dodger figures to be the number one priority for the club, with everything else following from there. But there will be some formalities that have to come first, with a large number of club options on the table. Each of Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes missed all or most of 2023 due to injuries and should have their options declined. The Dodgers are generally unafraid of banking on their injured players but would likely work out new deals with any of this group they wanted to take another chance on.

The net $8.5MM decision on Joe Kelly is borderline, but the club would likely prefer to keep that powder dry for now, with the ability to circle back to Kelly or someone similar later in the winter. Max Muncy is a lock to have his option picked up, despite the low batting average and high strikeouts. He launched 36 home runs this year and walked in 14.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and 2.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. Though he was able to nudge the option price up to $14MM by reaching plate appearance escalators, it’s still a bargain. Lance Lynn is likely to be bought out after posting a 5.73 earned run average this year.

The Dodgers will be looking to replace some thump in their lineup, whether they sign Ohtani or not, even though Betts and Freeman will each be back. Martinez and Jason Heyward each had solid bounceback years, but both are now set to return to free agency. Martinez has yet to receive a qualifying offer in his career and the Dodgers could offer him one, but there are reasons they may not do so. Martinez settled for a one-year, $10MM to join the Dodgers a year ago and this year’s qualifying offer is expected to go over $20MM. That kind of pay raise might be tempting for a 36-year-old designated hitter. But the Dodgers may not want to risk that since players who accept a qualifying offer can’t be traded until June 15. Having both Martinez and Ohtani on the same club isn’t possible with just one DH slot, so the Dodgers probably can’t take a chance by putting the offer in front of Martinez.

But Martinez will likely want to wait on Ohtani before deciding where to sign, since many clubs may have him as a backup option. That means the Dodgers may be able to circle back to him if they don’t end up landing Ohtani. Other players who may be in a similar boat include Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt or old friends Justin Turner and Joc Pederson.

Replacing Heyward may not be as necessary. Betts spent a lot of time on the infield this year with Gavin Lux suffering a season-ending knee injury in Spring Training. If Lux is healthy enough to rejoin the middle infield next year, Betts can go back to being a primary right fielder next to center fielder James Outman. Left field will still be a question mark, but the club would have some internal options there with Chris Taylor, Andy Pages and Jonny Deluca some of them. It might be possible to fit Heyward in there, but he may have cleaner paths to playing time elsewhere.

On the infield, Freeman and Muncy should have the corners largely spoken for. The middle infield is a bit less certain, with the aforementioned Lux situation the major unanswered question. The club was planning to give him a shot to be an everyday shortstop before his injury. Whether that plan is back on the table remains to be seen. If he is able to secure the shortstop job, he could push Miguel Rojas to second base or perhaps into a depth role. Or perhaps Lux sticks at the less-demanding second base spot going forward. There are also prospects looming, with Michael Busch and Jorbit Vivas some of those potentially in the mix for the keystone. Since the free agent market doesn’t have too much to offer anyway, the Dodgers might stick with internal candidates here as well, though the trade market theoretically offers players like Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan.

The catching spot seems fine with Will Smith having another strong season in 2023. Austin Barnes wasn’t great at the plate in 2023 but is already under contract and still got good marks for his framing. Cutting him loose and signing a veteran backup wouldn’t be shocking, but it wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources when the club has bigger priorities elsewhere.

Outside of the Ohtani question, the big focus for the Dodgers this winter will be the starting pitching. This year saw the pitching injuries pile up, and Julio Urías become unavailable due to a domestic violence situation, with the diminished rotation arguably serving as the club’s unraveling. They tried to patch things together by trading for Lynn, Yarbrough and Eduardo Rodriguez, but E-Rod used his no-trade clause to stay with the Tigers while Lynn wasn’t able to salvage his rough season as hoped. The club can keep Lynn around but $17MM for the age-37 season of a pitcher who just allowed 44 homers is fairly steep.

Both Urías and Clayton Kershaw are set to become free agents, and some of the pitching injuries will carry over into next year. Dustin May will likely miss the first half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in July. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John later in the year and will likely miss the entire 2024 season. That leaves the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own Tommy John, atop their depth chart. Bobby Miller likely earned a spot after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2023. Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone could compete for jobs as well but it’s arguable that none of them did enough to be guaranteed a gig.

That could position the Dodgers to seek out as many as three starting pitchers this offseason. One of them could be Kershaw coming back, though that’s become an annual question in recent years. The two most recent offseasons have seen him deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. Though he eventually returned to the Dodgers in each instance, it seems there’s less confidence in that path this year. His velocity dipped as he battled shoulder issues this year and he indicated he might take a few months before making his choice about 2024.

Even if the Dodgers land Ohtani, he won’t help the rotation since he won’t be pitching in 2024. The Dodgers have the spending capacity to play at any level of free agency, but it’s possible that their level of spending in this aisle is contingent on what happens with Ohtani and Kershaw. The top of the market will feature guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola, with each of them looking at nine-figure deals. Then there’s also solid guys at a lower tier, such as Seth Lugo or old friend Kenta Maeda, as well as bounceback candidates like Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas.

The trade market is another area the club could explore, though this path is a little trickier. Brandon Woodruff is out for most or perhaps all of 2024, which might mean the Brewers take Corbin Burnes off the market. Other theoretical trade candidates may be hard to pry loose as well, with the White Sox seemingly hoping to contend and therefore likely holding Dylan Cease. Perhaps Shane Bieber can be freed from Cleveland, but his stock is down after a bit of an uninspiring year and a late-season battle with elbow inflammation. The Pirates are probably looking to hold Mitch Keller as they try to build off some encouraging performances in 2023.

The bullpen is likely less of a priority, with plenty of strong arms still under club control next year. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzálezand Alex Vesia all had good results in one way or another and each can be retained via affordable arbitration salaries. Adding a couple of veteran free agents to the group should be on the table, but the level of aggressiveness will likely be dictated by how the other priorities are addressed.

All signs point towards a bigger offseason for the Dodgers this year, though that could take a few different shapes. Maybe they can sign Ohtani or maybe they can’t. Maybe Kershaw comes back or maybe he doesn’t. Whether those guys are involved or not, the club will need to add to the rotation and the lineup. But there may not be any club with as much spending capacity this winter, meaning there’s a good chance this offseason looks very different from the last one.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Dodgers-centric chat on 10-19-23. Click here to read the transcript.

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