Dodgers Sign Tom Koehler
Dec. 20: The Dodgers formally announced the signing of Koehler today. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the righty will earn $2MM and can earn incentives based on games started and relief appearances. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that Koehler would earn $1.25MM for starting 25 games and $500K for making 60 total appearances.
Dec. 15: The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year deal with righty Tom Koehler, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). Financial details are not yet known. Koehler is represented by Pro Agents, Inc.
Koehler, 31, was non-tendered by the Blue Jays after the 2017 season. He had been projected to earn a hefty $6MM via arbitration. Koehler remains eligible to be tendered arbitration after the 2018 season.
Given the salary, that decision came as little surprise. But it’s also not hard to see why the reigning National League champs have made a move to bring in the veteranr right-hander.
While he struggled badly in the first half of the 2017 season, Koehler rebounded upon going to the Jays, where he moved into the bullpen and increasingly favored his curve over his slider. Over 17 frames, Koehler allowed five earned runs on 16 hits and six walks while recording 18 strikeouts.
Though it seems clear the Dodgers will use Koehler out of the bullpen, it doesn’t hurt that he comes with a long track record as a starter. Through 749 2/3 career innings working out of the rotation, Koehler carries a 4.44 ERA. In addition to multi-inning capacity, he has also generally proven to be effective against opposite-handed batters. While lefties knocked Koehler around in 2017, he actually carries slight reverse platoon splits for his career.
Free Agent Rumors: Moustakas, Cahill, Mets, Dodgers, Hirano, Indians, Twins
Like most free agents, Mike Moustakas has been met with an unexpectedly slow market this offseason, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Zack Cozart‘s willingness to move from shortstop to third base and the potential presence of names like Manny Machado, Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson on the trade market have all complicated matters for Moustakas, who entered the winter as the consensus top third baseman available in free agency. Olney writes that some MLB evaluators have questioned how well Moustakas’ body will hold up into his 30s, which represents another potential stalling point in his market. Olney speculates about the possibility of Moustakas ultimately settling for a one-year deal and reentering free agency next winter, noting that the Orioles, Yankees and Cardinals would all represent very logical landing spots on a short-term pact. Of course, it remains to be seen whether he’d be amenable to such an arrangement; the majority of top position players remain unsigned, after all, and agent Scott Boras has a history of lengthy trips through free agency for some of his clients.
Some more notes on the free-agent market…
- Olney also reports that the Giants are among the clubs considering righty Trevor Cahill for a rotation spot (Twitter link). Cahill, 30 in March, was terrific early in the year before a shoulder injury torpedoed his season. Through his first 41 1/3 innings with the Padres, Cahill logged a 3.27 ERA with 11.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 60.2 percent ground-ball rate. Upon returning from that injury, however, he was rocked for a 6.54 ERA In 42 2/3 frames between the Padres and Royals. Cahill’s newfound ability to miss bats completely evaporated after being activated from the DL (7.6 K/9), and he was unable to find the strike zone with any consistency (5.9 BB/9).
- The Mets have indeed “reached out” to Adrian Gonzalez, tweets Olney. (Olney and others had previously suggested the Mets were likely to explore the possibility.) New York’s level of interest isn’t known, but they have a considerably more intriguing option in-house in the form of Dominic Smith, and the market bears a number of considerably more appealing veterans (all of whom, albeit, are more expensive). The 35-year-old Gonzalez could be had for just the league minimum, as the Braves are on the hook for the remainder of his salary, but he’s coming off a season that was ruined by back injuries and saw him post an unsightly .242/.287/.355 slash line in 252 plate appearances.
- The Dodgers have some interest in Japanes closer Yoshihisa Hirano, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweeted recently. The 33-year-old Hirano has starred for NPB’s Orix Buffaloes for quite some time, amassing 143 saves with a 2.62 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 271 1/3 innings from 2013-17. Hirano, who will turn 34 next spring, has enough professional experience that he’s exempt from the posting system and is able to sign a Major League deal without going through the posting system. He’s also been linked to the Cardinals and Tigers this winter.
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Indians aren’t operating under the same capacity that they did last offseason when they surprised everyone by signing Edwin Encarnacion (Twitter links). Cleveland is looking at lower-profile first base options to replace Carlos Santana, with Crasnick listing the likes of Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Logan Morrison and Yonder Alonso as possibilities rather than Eric Hosmer. (Speculatively, I’d imagine that even Morrison and Alonso could be beyond Cleveland’s comfort zone.) Dealing Jason Kipnis and the remaining $30.5MM on his contract (2018-19) would open up some additional funds for the team to reallocate to a first baseman or additional bullpen help, Crasnick notes.
- Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN touched on a number of Twins-related issues in his most recent podcast (audio link, Twins talk beginning at the 3:30 mark). Minnesota was in on Drew Smyly until the end, per Wolfson, before Smyly chose to sign with the Cubs. Minnesota gave an identical two-year, $10MM guarantee to Michael Pineda instead, and they have some interest in working out a two-year agreement with injured reliever Trevor Rosenthal as well. Minnesota has shown no inclination to spent upwards of $9MM on multi-year deals for relievers and doesn’t love the idea of going to six years on Yu Darvish, though the team does maintain strong interest in the righty. Wolfson notes that the trade market could be an avenue for improving the ‘pen and/or rotation.
Dodgers Receiving Minimal Trade Interest In Matt Kemp
When the Dodgers recently pulled off a big-contract swap with the Braves that improved the team’s luxury tax accounting, they ended up with former star outfielder Matt Kemp. It remains difficult to see Kemp ending up on the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster, but the team is also finding little interest in the veteran from other organizations, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.
Indeed, per Heyman, “the trade market for Kemp is believed to be virtually nonexistent at the moment.” That’s hardly surprising, of course. Atlanta no doubt would have moved Kemp previously if there had been an opportunity. He’s worth nothing close to what’s left on his contract, which has been traded three times already.
Still, we heard recently about the possibility of the Dodgers including prospects as an inducement to another organization to take over a portion of the Kemp deal. Just how much cash might move off the L.A. books would surely depend upon the quality of the prospect(s) up for the bidding, with any such deal potentially representing an interesting look at the market valuation of some young talent.
Whether that sort of scenario might yet be in play is not yet clear, but it seems the Dodgers won’t be able to get much of a credit for the rights to Kemp himself. But that’s not to say that there’s no potential value left in the veteran slugger, who only just turned 33 years of year.
Kemp, after all, is still a significant power threat who has managed slightly above-average offensive production over the past three seasons. While health, defense, and on-base questions persist, he could well be worthy of a MLB roster spot — particularly for an American League team that is in need of a slugger that can mash against opposing lefties (against whom Kemp carries a lifetime .921 OPS).
In any event, the Dodgers likely aren’t in much of a rush at present. Even with Kemp on the 40-man, the club has three open roster spots to work with. Unless and until pressure is created in that realm, the Los Angeles front office can explore any number creative ways to shed some of the obligations to Kemp while maximizing the organization’s resources in addressing other needs.
Reactions To And Effects Of Dodgers-Braves Trade
The Dodgers and Braves swung an out-of-nowhere, payroll-geared trade Saturday consisting of five major leaguers, with just one (Matt Kemp) going to Los Angeles in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Charlie Culberson. LA, which made the trade for luxury tax purposes, previously tried to send Gonzalez, Kazmir and McCarthy to the Marlins as part of a package for now-Yankee Giancarlo Stanton, according to Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. Although that failed, Dodgers brass already had a fallback option in the Braves, whose general manager – Alex Anthopoulos – worked in LA’s front office until mid-November. The two sides began discussing the parameters of Saturday’s trade shortly after his hiring, per McCullough. Talks gained steam during this week’s Winter Meetings before culminating in an agreement Saturday.
- The Braves immediately designated Gonzalez for assignment after his acquisition, but the 35-year-old had to waive his no-trade clause before the deal could occur. Gonzalez touched on that choice afterward, saying in a statement: “My final decision was not based on playing time, as I had agreed to a limited bench role. It is a way to test the free-agent market and see what opportunities are out there for me so I can make the best decision moving forward for me and my family. Lifting the no-trade clause is the hardest decision I have ever made in my career due to the fact that I loved every single second being a Dodger.”
- The Padres will consider a reunion with Gonzalez if they’re unable to reel in free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests (Twitter link). Gonzalez was a franchise player in San Diego from 2006-10, slashing .288/.374/.514 with 161 home runs in 3,425 plate appearances and earning three All-Star nods.
- Shortly after the news broke, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Dodgers would likely trade or release Kemp before he ever plays another game in their uniform (he was previously with LA from 2006-14). The Dodgers will first try to flip Kemp, confirms McCullough, who adds that they “appear willing to offer prospects” to help convince someone to take some of his contract. Kemp, 33, is due $21.5MM in each of the next two seasons. Keith Law of ESPN opines that he wouldn’t even be worth picking up if the Dodgers ate all of that money (subscription required and recommended). Regarding a discussion he had with Kemp, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said: “I was very open and honest with him about what the future might hold. It’s just too difficult to say, definitively, at this point.”
- Having completed this trade, it seems the Braves’ heavy lifting for the offseason is mostly over, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution details. They improved their defense by getting rid of Kemp, thus freeing up a spot in the outfield for elite prospect Ronald Acuna (he’ll be in the majors early in 2018, whether it’s Opening Day or a bit later); added a veteran starter in McCarthy (possibly two if Kazmir recovers from a hip injury); and landed a backup infielder they like in Culberson. While Anthopoulos said the Braves could still seek a third baseman and relief help, he noted that those areas are not priorities, O’Brien writes.
- Meanwhile, Nightengale, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs and Bill Shaikin of the LA Times agree that this trade will help set up an action-packed offseason in a year. Now that the Dodgers are unlikely to exceed the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, they can be more aggressive in trying to reel in certain members of a star-studded class of free agents next winter. One of their own standouts, left-hander Clayton Kershaw, could be a prominent part of that group.
Dodgers Acquire Matt Kemp For Adrian Gonzalez, Kazmir, McCarthy, Culberson
In a stunning swap of big contracts, the Dodgers have traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, left-hander Scott Kazmir, right-hander Brandon McCarthy and infielder Charlie Culberson to the Braves in exchange for outfielder Matt Kemp. The Braves will also receive $4.5MM in cash. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report news of the trade. Furthermore, Mark Bowman of MLB.com adds that the Braves have already designated Gonzalez for assignment. A source close to Rosenthal tells him that the Dodgers are likely to trade or release Kemp (Twitter link).
There’s a ton to unpack here, but the biggest motivator of the trade appears to be money, and more specifically luxury tax implications for the Dodgers. Rosenthal notes in another tweet that the trade is “effectively cash-neutral overall,” but adds that the swap will put the Dodgers below the $197MM luxury tax threshold for the 2018 season. That will allow the Dodgers to reset the escalating luxury tax penalties, which seems to have been a significant objective for the club this offseason. The money owed to Kemp is spread out across the 2018-2019 seasons, while Gonzalez, Kazmir and McCarthy all have just one year remaining on their contracts.
Rosenthal offers further clarification yet, as he points out that the Dodgers have paid the luxury tax for five consecutive seasons. Their penalty for 2017 was over $30MM, but if they keep their payroll below $197MM, their penalty will drop from 50% on the overage to 20% the next time they exceed the luxury tax threshold.
Joel Sherman reports in his own tweet that the Braves are planning to release Gonzalez, but can’t do so until Monday since MLB teams can’t release players on weekends during the offseason. Gonzalez actually had to waive his no-trade clause in order to make this trade possible, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports that he did so mainly because the Dodgers told him he’d be buried on the bench and receive limited at-bats.
[RELATED: Updated Dodgers Depth Chart; Updated Braves Depth Chart]
As for the Braves, the $4.5MM they’ll get in the deal will even out the overall dollars swapped in the trade (hat tip to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports). GM Alex Anthopoulos says that McCarthy satisfies the team’s “desire to add a veteran starter,” while Culberson fills their need for a bench player (via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). Kazmir has some upside as a rotation piece too.
Not insignificant is the fact that the Dodgers have opened up multiple spots on their 40-man roster, including one that was already earmarked for Tom Koehler, with whom the Dodgers have recently agreed to a one-year deal.
Kemp, 33, was a sixth-round selection of the Dodgers back in 2003. He made his major league debut in 2007, and went on to have some great seasons for Los Angeles, including a 2011 campaign in which he finished as the runner-up in the MVP voting. Later that year, the club signed the outfielder to an eight-year, $160MM extension. Not long after that, his performance began to decline; Kemp has only topped 1 WAR once in the past four seasons as his contract has been tossed between the Padres, Braves and Dodgers. For the 2017 season, Kemp hit .276/.318/.463, making him a roughly average major league hitter (100 wRC+). However, his poor defense in the outfield dropped his overall value to -0.5 fWAR.
Gonzalez, now 35 years of age, went to the Marlins with the number one overall pick in the 2000 draft. His breakout season came with the Padres in 2006; that year began a streak of ten consecutive seasons wherein the left-handed-hitting first baseman posted at least 2.9 fWAR. Across those years, he posted a .292/.366/.501 slash line and mashed 283 homers. This past season, however, Gonzalez battled injuries throughout the year and didn’t hit well when healthy; he amassed only 252 plate appearances across 71 games with the Dodgers and managed a career-worst .355 slugging percentage. All told, Gonzalez was valued at 1.1 wins below replacement level.
Kazmir’s story is a roller coaster of sorts; he was a great pitcher during his early years with the then-Devil Rays, including a 2007 season in which he posted a 3.48 ERA with 239 strikeouts across 206 2/3 innings. However, Kazmir began to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, and though he experienced a resurgence in July that prompted a trade to the Angels, his ERA during the 2009 postseason was an ugly 7.59. Those struggles continued into the 2010 season, and by 2011 Kazmir was pitching for the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate and was cut before June was over. After spending 2012 out of MLB entirely, the Indians took a chance on him in 2013, and he rewarded them with a 4.04 ERA (and 3.51 FIP) campaign that earned him the Comeback Player of the Year Award. He signed a two-year deal with the Athletics the following offseason, and seemed to be “back.” The Dodgers signed Kazmir to a three-year, $48MM deal, but the injury bug struck once again, marring his 2016 performance and keeping him off the field entirely in 2017.
The 34-year-old McCarthy has a career 4.15 ERA across 1,145 big league innings with the White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Yankees and Dodgers. He’s generally provided value while on the field, but has only topped 140 innings twice in his twelve-year career. Part of that can be attributed to injuries, including a 2015 Tommy John surgery when he famously noted on Twitter that “31 years is a lot to ask for from a ligament.” During the past two seasons, he’s put up a 4.27 ERA while striking out 116 batters in 132 2/3 innings.
Based on his age and team control, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Culberson is the one player in this deal who looks capable of being a long-term piece. The Georgia native won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter, meaning the Braves could control him for the next four seasons. The righty-hitting Culberson hasn’t found much big league success since debuting in 2012, though, having hit just .229/.269/.321 in 443 PAs with three NL West clubs – the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers. Culberson racked up a mere 83 trips to the plate in two seasons with the Dodgers, but he did swat a couple dramatic homers during his LA tenure.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL West Notes: Headley, Padres, Darvish, Rockies, Davis
Padres GM A.J. Preller discussed his team’s surprising acquisition of Chase Headley with reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), and the possibility exists that Headley will be flipped before Opening Day. “I talked to Chase this morning and explained to him that we’re going to look at the situation and figure out if there’s space for everybody, was very honest, telling him we’re going to talk to other clubs as well,” Preller said. Headley’s addition has also created a glut within San Diego’s infield, and Preller said that he has already received calls from teams about Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg, and Carlos Asuaje.
Some other rumblings from around the NL West…
- The Dodgers are still in “active dialogue” with Yu Darvish, GM Farhan Zaidi told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters. Andrew Friedman said yesterday that the team was more focused on relievers than starters due to the number of depth rotation options already in the organization, though with Darvish’s market yet to fully develop, it only makes sense that L.A. would continue to check in with the ace righty. In regards to the Dodgers’ bullpen search, Zaidi noted that the team is looking for value additions rather than at the top of the market.
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich poured cold water on some speculation surrounding his team, telling Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (all Twitter links) and other reporters that the Rox aren’t involved in trade talks for Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Bridich also said that the club doesn’t have the payroll capability to shop at the very top of the free agent market for players like J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer. One player Colorado is involved with is Wade Davis, as Bridich confirmed that the team is still talking to the free agent closer.
- The Padres‘ rather surprising pursuit of Hosmer has drawn headlines, though Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller tweets that San Diego is more focused on either signing Zack Cozart or acquiring Freddy Galvis from the Phillies during the Winter Meetings. Either infielder would address a more pressing need at shortstop. Preller said (hat tip to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that the Padres have a list of eight or nine shortstop options that they feel could be acquired. Lin also hears from some rival officials that the Padres would possibly be open to dealing a young pitcher in exchange for a shortstop.
NL West News: Rodney, Bruce, Duggar, Cutch, Giants, Reynolds, Dodgers
Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that his team has kept in touch with Fernando Rodney. The veteran reliever was expected to personally attend the Winter Meetings to speak to clubs about a contract, though it isn’t known whether the D’Backs were one of those teams. Rodney signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Arizona last winter and turned into a bargain signing for the team, recording 39 saves to go along with a 4.23 ERA, 10.57 K/9 and 52.2% grounder rate.
Some more from around the NL West…
- The Giants have some level of interest in Jay Bruce, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The slugger is known to be on the target list for at least four other teams, though it remains to be seen if the bidding will be high enough for Bruce to land his desired five-year contract. A right-handed bat would be a better fit within San Francisco’s heavily left-handed lineup, though Bruce would check a couple of boxes for the Giants as a power hitter and defensively-capable right fielder.
- From that same Schulman piece, the Giants are impressed enough with prospect Steven Duggar that “it does affect how we view addressing that [center field] need this offseason,” GM Bobby Evans said. “It does give us a mindset more short term.” This would seem to lessen the chance that the Giants acquire names like Lorenzo Cain or Billy Hamilton, who have been both been linked to the team in rumors. Andrew McCutchen has also been mentioned as a possibility for the Giants, yet Schulman writes that “he is not viewed as a priority,” even though the Pirates outfielder is only under contract through the 2018 season and would seem to fit as a short-term answer. Duggar is expected to start the season in Triple-A but would seem to be on pace for a big league debut next year and potentially a regular role by 2019.
- A big bat for third base or the corner outfield is the priority for the Giants at the Winter Meetings, Schulman tweets, and the team may have to sacrifice defense in order to land that type of hitter. San Francisco also wants to address the bullpen, though that will be dealt with later in the offseason.
- The Rockies are interested in re-signing Mark Reynolds, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). GM Jeff Bridich has suggested that first base (or any type of bat) isn’t necessarily a priority for the team, though that hasn’t stopped the Rox from checking in on the likes of Carlos Santana or Jay Bruce. Reynolds would be a more affordable and familiar option for Colorado at first base, returning for a third year at Coors Field after hitting .274/.354/.471 with 44 homers over 1034 PA in 2016-17. Despite those slightly above-average hitting numbers, however, Reynolds has only been worth a total of 1.0 fWAR over those two seasons due to his strikeouts and lack of defensive or baserunning value.
- It is “fair to say” that the Dodgers‘ 2018 payroll will be lower than $237MM, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other media. Exceeding that figure would balloon the team’s luxury tax rate to 95 percent and drop their position in the June amateur draft back by 10 spots. Counting arbitration projections and money owed to players no longer on the roster, the Dodgers’ payroll stands at over $208MM for next season, so they do have some room to make upgrades though it seems unlikely that they’d take on any major salary commitments without first unloading some of their existing big contracts.
- Also from Friedman, the Dodgers are prioritizing bullpen additions. Starting pitching doesn’t seem to be a need, as Friedman likes their current rotation depth and wants to give younger pitchers “a soft landing spot in the big leagues to go through their acclimation process. We have a talented enough group to ride that out a little bit.” As Gurnick notes, this makes it seem unlikely that L.A. would re-sign Yu Darvish. Of course, the Dodgers did make a push for one very notable starter in Shohei Ohtani, though that was a unique circumstance due to Ohtani’s minimal costs.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/12/17
Here are the latest minor league moves from around baseball, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…
- The Mariners have re-signed infielder Gordon Beckham to a new minor league deal, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Beckham spent 2017 on another minor league contract with Seattle and spent the majority of the season at the Triple-A level, appearing in just 11 games in an Mariners uniform. The light-hitting veteran utilityman will continue to provide the M’s with some infield depth in the minors, though it seems unlikely Beckham will get much time on the 25-man roster unless injury strikes.
- The Angels signed outfielder Rymer Liriano to a minors deal, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Once ranked as a top-60 prospect in baseball during his time in the Padres farm system, Liriano has a .274/.346/.432 slash line over 3599 career PA in the minors but he has appeared just sparingly in the majors, posting a .580 OPS over 167 PA with the Padres and White Sox. Forty-six of those plate appearances came last season for Chicago, as Liriano got his first taste of big league action since 2014.
- The Dodgers have agreed to sign Colombian right-hander Guillermo Zuniga to a deal with a $205K bonus, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (Twitter link). Zuniga was one of the 12 former Braves prospects who were declared free agents in the wake of MLB’s investigation into signing improprieties within Atlanta’s front office. Each of the other 29 teams received an extra $200K in international bonus pool funds to sign any of these players, so the Dodgers only slightly dipped into their pre-existing pool money for Zuniga. The Braves originally signed Zuniga, 19, to a $350K bonus.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Giancarlo Stanton Trade
The Yankees shook the baseball world early Saturday when they agreed to acquire 2017 National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins. As you’d expect, the deal has elicited no shortage of media reactions, many of which we’ve rounded up here:
- While the Los Angeles-born Stanton would have preferred to go to the Dodgers, they didn’t make an offer that “intrigued” the Marlins, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Sending Stanton to the Dodgers would have required the Marlins to take on more bad contracts than they were “comfortable with,” according to Sherman, who reports that LA wanted Miami to accept one or both of Adrian Gonzalez or Scott Kazmir and absorb $30MM of Stanton’s contract. The Marlins found acquiring Starlin Castro from the Yankees much more appealing, as he’s someone they could slot in at second base or flip elsewhere.
- The Dodgers’ wariness toward a more aggressive Stanton pursuit stemmed from the back-loaded nature of his 10-year, $295MM commitment, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required and recommended). If he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020, Stanton will rake in $96MM over the final three years of his pact, when he’ll be in his late 30s. The Yankees will be able to slot him in at designated hitter then if his work in the field sharply declines with age, whereas the Dodgers would have had to continue running him out as a defender.
- Adding Stanton gives the Yankees as many as six major league-caliber outfielders, thereby making Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier potential trade candidates. The Yankees will work to rid themselves of Ellsbury, even if it means eating “a lot” of the $68.3MM left on his contract, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Ellsbury was reportedly uninterested in leaving the Yankees as of earlier this week, but that was before the acquisition of Stanton relegated him to the role of a fifth outfielder. While Ellsbury, who has a full no-trade clause, would be a salary dump, the 23-year-old Frazier would likely bring back a quality return – perhaps a starter, King suggests. Additionally, the Yankees “would certainly listen on offers” for third baseman Chase Headley, per King. Headley is entering the last year of his contract, in which he’ll make $13MM.
- With new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman on a mission to continue paring down payroll to the $90MM range, Castro looks like their most obvious trade chip, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. By parting with Castro – who has two years and $22MM left on his pact – and not taking back another guaranteed contract, Miami would still be about $15MM above its spending goal, Jackson notes. Further payroll slashing could come from deals involving some combination of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Moving Castro, Ozuna, Ziegler and Tazawa would likely obviate any need to trade Yelich, Jackson suggests.
- Prior to the Yankees’ Stanton acquisition, they looked poised to go after Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency a year from now. That may be out the window now, leading Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post to posit that the trade probably helps the Nationals to some degree because it appears to erase a would-be Harper suitor. However, several other teams will make big offers to Harper, Janes points out, so retaining him on what should be a record contract still figures to be a tall order for the Nats.
- Harper is among the losers in this trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic opines (subscription required and recommended). Unsurprisingly, Harper’s agent, the always colorful Scott Boras, disagrees. “A Bronx opera . . . The Three Tenors . . . Hal’s genius, vision,” Boras told Rosenthal via email, referencing Harper, Stanton, Aaron Judge and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. Boras added that the Harper-Stanton-Judge trio would be “a galaxy of international popularity” on the same team. While Boras clearly isn’t ruling out a Yankees-Harper union, Rosenthal sees Manny Machado as a more likely target for the club in free agency next year.
- The fact that Stanton is set to join a Yankees team that was just one win from securing a World Series trip last season is a major blow to parity in the AL, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues. Cameron classifies the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Indians as potential “super teams” heading into next season, and the Angels could be on their way to the playoffs after winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. As impressive as those clubs look, there’s now less incentive for others to play for the last wild-card spot, Cameron contends, which could lead certain fringe teams to rebuild.
Free Agent Profile: Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish hits the open market as both the top free agent pitcher available and, in MLBTR’s view, the top free agent of the entire 2017-18 class.
Strengths/Pros
After seven years of stardom in Japan, Darvish came to North American baseball with great fanfare in the 2011-12 offseason, and he has since lived up to the hype. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has a 3.42 ERA, 11.04 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate, and 19 fWAR, firmly establishing himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm.
Tommy John surgery sidelined Darvish for all of 2015 and limited him to 100 1/3 innings in 2016, though he looked healthy in a full season of work last year plus an extended postseason run with the Dodgers. Darvish tossed a combined 201 1/3 innings between the regular season and playoffs, the second-highest total of his MLB career. Beyond just the workload, Darvish also set a new career best by averaging 94.2 mph on his fastball.
It’s worth noting that Darvish’s numbers with the Rangers prior to his deadline trade to L.A. were somewhat below his usual standard, thanks in part to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. While those home run issues continued after Darvish went from Texas to Los Angeles, he took quite well to pitching in the NL, posting better strikeout and walk rates as a Dodger than he did in 137 IP with the Rangers before the deal. His cumulative 10.08 K/9 for the season was the lowest of his career, though Darvish balanced that minor dip in punchouts with a 2.8 BB/9, continuing his trend of exhibiting better control throughout his big league career.
Since Darvish was dealt during the season, he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, and thus a team doesn’t have to give up any draft picks or international bonus money in order to sign him. This gives Darvish a slight edge over his top competition in free agency, as Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb all have QO compensation attached to their services.
Weaknesses/Cons
Beyond the obvious red flag of the Tommy John surgery, Darvish has made five other trips to the disabled list during his MLB career, ranging from minor neck and back stiffness to rather lengthier DL stints for elbow and shoulder issues. Though Darvish just turned 31 last August, he has 2127 2/3 regular-season innings on his arm between both Japan and North America, not to mention extensive postseason work. While he hasn’t really exhibited any signs of slowing down, it’s easy to see how a team could be worried about committing nine figures to Darvish into his mid-30’s.
The spike in home runs allowed isn’t completely out of the blue (Darvish had a 14.4% homer rate in 2013), and clearly he was far from the only pitcher who ran into trouble with the long ball during a record-setting season for homers. Darvish’s 33.1% hard-hit ball rate was also a career-high, however, and his curveball was a below-average pitch in 2017 after previously being one of the most devastating weapons in his seven-pitch arsenal.
No discussion of Darvish is complete with mentioning his awful World Series performance, though that could just be chalked up to the Astros having his number. Darvish was very effective in his two starts earlier in the playoffs, and given the small-sample size factor of all postseason numbers, it’s hard to imagine any team wouldn’t be eager to give Darvish the ball this October.
Personal
Darvish has been dealing with the media spotlight since he was a teenager, rising from a highly-touted high school prospect into instant stardom with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. His move to Major League Baseball drew intense interest from several teams, with the Rangers making the high bid (under the old posting system) of $51.7MM just for the rights to talk terms with Darvish, eventually signing him to a six-year, $56MM deal.
Market
While Darvish has drawn significant interest from at least six teams, there haven’t been too many rumblings about Darvish or other top free agent hurlers given that the Shohei Ohtani chase has so dominated the offseason pitching market. Now that Ohtani has agreed to join the Angels, you can expect a least a few of the finalists in the Ohtani sweepstakes to turn their attention to Darvish, even though the veteran pitcher comes at a vastly higher price. Interest should be robust.
The Cubs have already made one notable rotation signing in Tyler Chatwood, though adding Darvish would further bolster an already-strong rotation. The Dodgers are also deep in pitching options, though they could explore a reunion with Darvish to guard against further rotation injuries. A return to the Rangers doesn’t seem very likely, while San Diego, San Francisco or Seattle are also longer shots based on costs, though the Mariners seem to be taking such an aggressive approach to this offseason that they can’t be totally ruled out.
Let’s not overlook the Angels themselves as possible candidates, as there has been some light speculation that Darvish and Ohtani could aim to be on the same team; the two are friends and Darvish is one of Ohtani’s idols. Anaheim has some payroll room even after extending Justin Upton, and with Darvish added to the promising but injury-riddled rotation, the Halos could even look to trade one of their excess starters in their attempts to add second base help.
The Twins and Cardinals have been linked to Darvish this winter, though St. Louis has already made one notable rotation addition and could be more focused on adding a big bat. Minnesota is something of a surprise suitor for Darvish on paper, though the club has enough open payroll space in future seasons that signing Darvish is actually feasible. (The Brewers are also a possible fit for the same reason.) The Orioles and Phillies badly need arms but the former won’t meet Darvish’s price and the Phillies may be a year away from augmenting their rebuild with big-ticket free agents. The Astros may prefer to earmark future money on extending their core players, though they make some sense for Darvish if they wanted to safeguard their rotation against Dallas Keuchel possibly leaving for free agency after 2018.
Expected Contract
MLBTR projected Darvish to land a six-year, $160MM contract this winter, which would work out to the fifth-highest average annual value given to any pitcher in baseball history. It’s a big investment given Darvish’s age and the miles already on his arm, though it also looks to be market value for such an ace-level hurler that reaches free agency.
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