NL Notes: Marlins, Dodgers, Rockies, Brewers
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has obtained two versions of Project Wolverine – the operational plan of new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman – one of which is from August and the other from a couple months before. According to the document, whose name stems from Jeter’s home state of Michigan (the Wolverine State), the Marlins will turn a profit in 2018. Most of that will come from MLB’s sale of BAMTech to Disney, which entitles each team to a one-time payout of $50MM. Otherwise, exactly how much of a profit the Marlins will rake in next season is going to depend largely on their television deal with Fox, Jackson explains.
Back in August, Jeter and Sherman forecast a $68MM “cash flow” profit, but they projected $44.8MM would come via an up-front payment from a renegotiated TV contract with Fox. There hasn’t been a renegotiation yet, though, and if it doesn’t occur, the Marlins’ projected profits would drop to $23MM or lower for next season, Jackson reports. The Marlins’ pact with Fox runs through 2020 and ranks as the lowest-paying TV contract in the majors, and as Jackson notes, it’s a key reason why the team is unwilling to field a larger payroll. Additionally, as of August, the Marlins expected a 2018 spike in attendance revenue, but that now looks questionable at best with fan favorites Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been traded in payroll-slashing deals. Looking beyond next season, Jeter and Sherman projected profits of $10MM in 2019, $15.8MM in 2020 and $22MM in 2021 in August, details Jackson, whose piece is well worth a full read.
More from the NL:
- The Dodgers have hired former major league right-hander Mark Prior to serve as their bullpen coach, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links here). Prior had worked as the division-rival Padres’ minor league pitching coordinator since he officially retired from the game in 2013. The 37-year-old was “very good” in that role, notes Brown, who suggests Prior could eventually take over for Rick Honeycutt as the Dodgers’ pitching coach.
- The Rockies re-signed reliever Jake McGee to a three-year, $27MM contract earlier this winter, and he repaid the club by helping recruit closer Wade Davis to Colorado, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post relays. “I told him this was a team that was going to win now,” said McGee. “I told him that (manager) Bud Black was awesome and I really liked how he used the bullpen. I told him the team was awesome and the communication was really good.” McGee and Davis, who joined the Rox last week on a three-year, $52MM pact, previously played together in both the minors and majors as members of the Rays organization. The two were even Single-A roommates at times, Saunders adds.
- Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson, who underwent surgery on a torn labrum in September, told MLB Network on Tuesday that his “rehab is going just about as well as it could possibly go, knock on wood” (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Its still unclear, though, how much time the 28-year-old will miss next season after emerging as a front-of-the-rotation starter in 2017. For now, Nelson’s “really anxious to start a throwing program and get to spring training.”
East Notes: Yelich, Realmuto, Marlins, Machado, Sox, Orioles
The Marlins continue to discuss center fielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto with other clubs, but there’s “nothing imminent” on the trade front, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Although the Marlins are in teardown mode, it would reportedly take a “huge overpay” for them to deal either Yelich or Realmuto, their two most valuable assets. The 26-year-old Yelich is controllable through 2022 on one of the majors’ most appealing contracts, while Realmuto (27 in March) is set to play his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns in 2018. Kyle Downing of MLBTR examined Yelich, Realmuto and the rest of Miami’s trade candidates over the weekend.
More on the Fish and a couple other East Coast franchises:
- Miami traded both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna earlier this offseason, thus subtracting a pair of in-their-prime sluggers who combined for a whopping 96 home runs in 2017. Now, with those two in other uniforms, the organization is “looking for guys who can provide power in the middle of the lineup,” vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, though, the Marlins aren’t competing for high-level free agents who would serve as short-term upgrades, per Frisaro, who writes that “their vision is more long range.”
- With the Red Sox still interested in acquiring Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, Ian Browne of MLB.com weighs in on a potential trade between the AL East rivals. Browne senses that the Red Sox don’t want to trade either shortstop Xander Bogaerts or center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason, but he concedes that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the former head to Baltimore as part of a Machado deal. The Red Sox would be losing two years of Bogaerts for a single season of control over Machado. As such, if Boston acquires Machado, it would make an aggressive push to re-up the superstar in order to prevent him from leaving as a free agent next winter, Browne adds.
- The Orioles still face a difficult path, all the more so given that the team will evidently be paying Zach Britton a full arbitration salary for what might be little more than a half season of work. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that, while the rotation market still hasn’t moved much, some of the arms from Baltimore’s potential target demographic are among those that have found new teams. Meanwhile, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com considers the question of whether the team will look to make second baseman Jonathan Schoop a part of a new long-term core — and, if so, how much it might cost to get something done.
International Notes: Choi, Senga, Yang
Happy New Year to all of our readers here at MLBTR! As MLB teams begin to gear up for what should be the most active January in hot stove history, here are a few notes on the international market…
- First baseman Ji-Man Choi‘s agency in Korea recently spoke to the media about their client’s current foray into free agency and revealed that he’s received offers (presumably of the minor league variety) from the Yankees, Angels, Rays, A’s, Brewers, Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Twins, Braves, Blue Jays and White Sox (English link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The 26-year-old Choi slugged a pair of homers in 18 plate appearances with the Yankees last year and posted a strong year with their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .288/.373/.538 in 87 games. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Choi has posted a robust .298/.390/.479 batting line.
- Right-hander Kodai Senga of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Nippon Professional Baseball is eyeing a jump to the Major Leagues down the line, per a report from the Japan Times (link in English). Senga, 25 next month, is currently negotiating a new contract with the Hawks, according to the report, so it doesn’t seem as though the move would happen until next offseason at the earliest. Next year will be Senga’s sixth full season in NPB, meaning he’ll have the pro experience and be old enough to be exempt from the international bonus pool system. However, he’d still be subject to the newly augmented posting system agreed to by MLB, NPB and the MLBPA. At present, Senga owns a career 2.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 418 innings. The righty moved from the bullpen to the rotation in 2016 and owns a 2.63 ERA in 47 starts over the past two seasons.
- Left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang has re-signed with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, Yoo writes in a second report. Set to turn 30 in March, Yang is fresh off an MVP season with the Tigers, having thrown 193 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in the hitter-friendly KBO. The southpaw has garnered interest from MLB teams in the past, though his KBO club did not accept the winning bid when he was initially posted for Major League teams back in the 2014-15 offseason. Yang, who has been pitching professionally since he was 19, now has enough experience to qualify as a true free agent without any restrictions but will nonetheless return to the KBO for a 12th pro season. His deal with the Tigers is worth $2.14MM, per Yoo, giving him the second-highest annual salary of any player in the KBO (behind former Mariners first baseman Dae-ho Lee).
Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins
In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).
So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.
Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…
Two Years of Control
Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.
Longer-Term Assets
J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.
Christian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.
Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.
Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.
Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.
Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.
Salary Dump Candidates
Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.
Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.
Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.
Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.
Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.
More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…
- Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
- Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.
Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli
In his latest run of notes from around the game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag touches upon a variety of topics. Many are covered in an omnibus post, while others get their own full treatment. Here are a few highlights with particular hot stove relevance:
- The Nationals have put out feelers on the top available relievers, says Heyman, even though the club surely isn’t desperate to find a new option in the ninth inning. While Wade Davis is now off the board, it seems Greg Holland could yet be an option for the Nats. And of broader importance, the report suggests that further bullpen upgrades are still under consideration as the team considers how it can put the finishing touches on an already-strong roster.
- Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.
- Speaking of options, the Giants are evidently still looking at quite a range of options in the outfield. Heyman says that trade candidates include not only Yelich but also Andrew McCutchen and Juan Lagares. (Others, of course, have linked the team to Billy Hamilton throughout the winter.) The free agent market is still chock full of possibilities, and Heyman says the team is still a potential landing spot for top option J.D. Martinez as well as the previously rumored Jay Bruce. Beyond that, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Dyson, and Jon Jay seem to be on the radar for the Giants.
- There have been some conflicting signals floating around on slugger Mike Napoli, it seems clear there’s serious interest between him and the Twins. The veteran slugger hasn’t lined up yet with Minnesota, but Heyman says some believe it’s “something of a likelihood” that a deal will ultimately be struck between the sides. Of course, there are still quite a few other defensively-limited sluggers on the market, but it seems the Twins are focused on Napoli both to add some pop and provide a strong veteran presence to the young squad.
Marlins Open To Trade Talks About Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto
7:24pm: The Nationals asked about Realmuto during the Winter Meetings but were told that the Marlins weren’t planning to deal him, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier reports. Matt Wieters’ struggles in 2017 make Washington a natural candidate to look for a catching upgrade, though Collier notes that it isn’t GM Mike Rizzo’s style to make a huge trade offer for Realmuto that the Marlins couldn’t refuse.
5:34pm: The Marlins are in “active trade discussions” about outfielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link). No trade is imminent, Morosi notes, and the exact nature of Miami’s willingness to deal either of its controllable young stars isn’t yet determined.
According to Clark Spencer and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, three sources give slightly different descriptions of the talks. One source says the Marlins are “more seriously considering offers” than in the past, and are particularly listening on Yelich. Another source says that the Marlins are listening to offers but “not aggressively shopping” either player, while the third source says rival teams have been informed by Miami that Yelich and Realmuto “are available for the right price.”
It’s worth noting that none of these three takes on the situation really contradict each other, and ultimately, the Marlins could simply be doing their due diligence in exploring what they could get for two very valuable trade chips. There have been conflicting reports on whether the Marlins were really looking to move Yelich (or Realmuto), or if the team had completed much of its heavy lifting in terms of payroll clearance in previous trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, and (to a lesser extent) Marcell Ozuna.
Both Yelich and Realmuto have been disappointed with this latest Miami rebuild, with Realmuto going so far as to reportedly ask for a trade. Since both players are under team control (Yelich via an extension, Realmuto via arbitration) for several more years, they don’t have any real leverage to make a deal happen, though obviously the Marlins could see value in moving players that no longer want to be there, especially when those two players could bring back multiple young assets in return.
As Jackson and Spencer note in their piece, the Marlins could try to capitalize on Yelich and Realmuto’s trade value by attaching one of their remaining big contracts (i.e. Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa) to either of those players in a trade. Multiple teams have been linked to Yelich for months now, while Realmuto would certainly generate almost as much interest, even from teams that may have a solid catcher in place but could be swayed by the idea of landing a younger option.
East Notes: Machado, Adonis Garcia, Marlins, Braves
The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder. As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.” Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now! Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day. For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.
- Though Venezuelan reporter Marcos Grunfeld tweeted yesterday that Braves third baseman Adonis Garcia has signed a contract with the LG Twins to play in Korea, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says “there have been discussions but [there is] no deal yet.” Garcia, 33 in April, was below replacement level in 52 games for the Braves this year.
- MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tackles questions from Marlins fans in his latest inbox. As of now, Frisaro expects Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto to be back with the team next year, though the team is “open to listening on everyone.” He notes that the Orioles are “known to have interest” in 29-year-old righty Dan Straily, who is under team control through 2020. Clearly, there is no urgency for the Marlins to deal controllable, affordable players like these.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com opens his Braves inbox, writing that “there is reason to believe Atlanta will use an abundance of funds to acquire another proven top-of-the-rotation starter via trade or free agency before the start of the 2019 season.” Looking at which starting pitchers will be available in free agency outside of possibly Clayton Kershaw, I agree with Bowman that a trade is the more likely route.
Looking for a Match in a J.T. Realmuto Trade
A new ownership group in Miami (headlined by Derek Jeter) has kicked off a fire sale. Dee Gordon is now a Mariner, Giancarlo Stanton a Yankee, and Marcell Ozuna a Cardinal, and there’s no telling whether the Marlins are done yet.
In the wake of this significant shift in direction for the organization, catcher J.T. Realmuto has reportedly requested a trade out of the city. While the team has stated that they have no intention to trade him (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports), the club had similar things to say about Ozuna early this offseason before shipping him to St. Louis for a package of prospects. On that note, there’s reason to at least explore his trade value and market.
Unlike Stanton or Gordon, Realmuto has significant surplus value on his contract. He’s been worth a combined 9 WAR across the past three seasons due to his excellent defense, above-average bat and good baserunning skills. He’s projected to make just a $4.2MM salary in his first trip through the arbitration process, and comes with two additional years of team control beyond the 2018 season. The former third-round pick out of Oklahoma’s Carl Albert High School is just entering his prime; he’ll begin the 2018 season having turned just 27 years old.
Realmuto, then, doesn’t help the Marlins’ with their loudly-stated goal to shed salary. However, by taking Stanton, Gordon and Ozuna off the books, they seem to have already reduced their payroll significantly. They don’t seem to have any intention of competing for an NL East pennant this year, and it’s looking more and more like Realmuto won’t be around for the next winning Marlins club. After all, teams like the Astros, Cubs and Nationals all took longer than three years to go from teardown to contention.
So with a realistic time frame to contend in mind, it’s difficult to believe the Marlins wouldn’t move Realmuto for the right offer. The question, then, is a matter of what kind of package would tempt them enough to move their backstop. Above-average major leaguers with three arbitration years remaining typically cost a small fortune; one need not look any further than the Braves’ recent trades of Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for evidence. It would likely take at least one “blue-chip” prospect to even get the Marlins to pick up the phone, and probably another prospect within or near the top 100 to ultimately get a deal done.
A trade partner, then, would need to have a strong farm system along with a significant need at the catcher position. That club wouldn’t necessarily need to stand out as a contender this season, but Realmuto would fit best on a team with a fairly obvious multi-year window in the near future.
The Nationals jump off the page as the most obvious trade partner for the Marlins in a hypothetical Realmuto trade. They have a great farm system, including outfielder Juan Soto, who doesn’t have an obvious path to the majors. The Nationals’ outfield is crowded, and superprospect Victor Robles is ahead of him in the pecking order. Thanks in part to a terrible season from Matt Wieters, Nats catchers ranked dead last in the majors with -1.1 fWAR. Washington would definitely benefit from the sizable upgrade Realmuto would provide them at the catcher position; in theory the team would have won about five more games last year if they’d had him instead of Wieters.
Beyond that, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are fairly good fits. Both clubs ranked in the bottom ten in WAR value from the catcher position in 2017, and neither has any promising backstops in their farm system. Additionally, both teams are obvious contenders in 2018. Either team could feasibly deal from its prospect depth in order to add Realmuto to their lineup.
The Padres may be ready to give up on Austin Hedges at this point, and while the team probably won’t win next season, they could feasibly be contenders before Realmuto hits free agency. The Twins could make a play if they’re not content with mediocre offensive production from Jason Castro. If the Brewers aren’t buying last year’s breakout from 30-year-old Manny Pina, they’d have plenty of prospect depth to get a deal done.
Although there’s no rush to trade him at the moment, there are a host of teams that would probably be willing to fork over enormous value for a catcher who ranked third in the majors in fWAR this past season. The Marlins would be wise to keep their ears open if they’re approached teams who are interested in, or desperate for, an elite backstop.
East Notes: Marlins, Orioles, Britton, Red Sox
Major League Baseball officials complained “to the highest levels of ESPN management” after commissioner Rob Manfred’s fiery interview with ESPN Radio’s Dan Le Batard on Wednesday, Ryan Glasspiegel of The Big Lead reports. Le Batard took Manfred to task for the payroll slashing the Marlins have done this offseason under rookie owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, and Manfred insisted (perhaps disingenuously) during their discussion that he was unaware the club would cut costs under its new leadership. ESPN spokesperson Ben Cafardo confirmed to Glasspiegel that MLB officials did reach out after the Manfred interview, though the exchange doesn’t seem to have fractured the two entities’ relationship. Cafardo passed along a statement to Glasspiegel from ESPN Executive Vice President, Programming and Scheduling, saying: “We have a terrific relationship with Major League Baseball and we’re in constant communication at all levels, so it’s not uncommon that we would discuss both issues and opportunities in the course of that communication.”
Even if the Le Batard-Manfred dust-up has led to resentment, ESPN and MLB are married to each other for the foreseeable future, as Glasspiegel points out. Back in 2012, the two reached an eight-year, $5.6 billion broadcasting agreement that runs through 2021. More recently, ESPN spent almost $2.6 billion to acquire 75 percent of BAMTech (formerly MLB Advanced Media). Further, with ESPN’s parent company, Disney, having agreed to acquire 21st Century Fox, ESPN will take over Fox’s regional sports networks. That puts ESPN in position to be the regional rightsholder for roughly half of MLB.
More on Miami and a couple more East Coast teams:
- Had one of the other serious bidders for the Marlins acquired the team, this winter’s controversial roster teardown likely wouldn’t be occurring, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The runner-up, Jorge Mas, told Jackson he’d have retained Giancarlo Stanton, increased payroll from $115MM to $130MM and hired a new general manager. Fellow would-be owner Wayne Rothbaum would not have slashed payroll, either; instead, he’d have saved money by cutting “wasteful non-player spending,” including reducing executive salaries, a league source informed Jackson. Under Rothbaum, the Marlins would have tried to contend and improve their farm system – not one or the other. But both Mas and Rothbaum were outbid by Sherman and Jeter, who acquired the franchise for $1.2 billion. In doing so, they overpaid by roughly $400MM, a Marlins official suggested to Jackson.
- It’s “probably not even a remote possibility” that the Orioles will cut ties with closer Zach Britton in the wake of his ruptured Achilles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. Britton, who’s entering his last year of arbitration eligibility, would receive his full 2018 salary (a projected $12.2MM) even if he’s released, according to Kubatko. So, it’s more likely the Orioles will attempt to extend the Scott Boras client and keep him in the fold beyond next year, Kubatko suggests. Interestingly, there’s a small chance a healthy Britton could eventually return to his original role as a starter. The Orioles approached Britton with the idea earlier this year, and though he expressed a desire to remain in the bullpen, he “wasn’t adamant about resisting the switch,” Kubatko writes. Whether it would make sense to change Britton’s role has drawn mixed opinions in the organization, Kubatko details, and his injury may reduce the likelihood of it happening. Regardless of whether he starts or stays in the bullpen going forward, the O’s are hopeful Britton will return before the All-Star break, Kubatko relays.
- The Red Sox‘s farm system has declined in recent years and currently lacks upper-level talent, making it more likely a high-profile addition(s) will come through free agency, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald posits. The Red Sox could meaningfully upgrade their roster by trading one of their top pitching prospects, Jay Groome or Tanner Houck, but Jennings argues that they’re not in position to move either because current rotation members Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Rick Porcello could depart in free agency in the next couple years. While Boston’s prospect pool isn’t in great shape at the moment, it’s worth mentioning that some of its recent farmhands (including Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, as Jennings points out) have turned into more-than-capable majors leaguers, thus improving the Red Sox but weakening their farm. And last winter’s system-hurting trade that saw the Red Sox send big-time prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech to the White Sox for Sale hasn’t exactly led to regret from Boston. Sale continued to serve as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2017, after all, and he’s eminently affordable for two more years.