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Starting Pitching Rumors: Cardinals, Castillo, Mariners, AL Central

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The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).

St. Louis has upwards of $155MM already on the books for the current season, though that number will dip to around $90MM for the 2023 campaign (not including several notable arbitration raises). The Cardinals are still nearly $10MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll ($164MM), and they’ve gone a bit further than that with some midseason acquisitions in recent years, so there should still be payroll space to accommodate players making substantial salaries. They also have one of the game’s deepest farm systems, allowing them to bid competitively for the market’s top arms.

Some more notes on the trade market for starters…

  • The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
  • For all the teams seeking pitching help, however, it’s the trio of AL Central front-runners that are the most aggressive at the moment, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are all looking to bolster their pitching staffs (rotation and/or bullpen help alike). The American League Central is the one division in the sport where there are three legitimate contenders for the division crown at the moment, and both Cleveland and Chicago (who currently trail Minnesota) are within 3.5 games of a Wild Card berth as well. There’s been prior speculation (here included) about the White Sox potentially going another direction, but they’ve been playing some of their best ball of the season this month and have thusly not had any discussions about the possibility of trading away veteran arms like Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
  • As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.

Max Meyer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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An already disappointing Marlins season took a turn for the worse Thursday, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola tweets that an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in top pitching prospect Max Meyer’s right elbow. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign as well as the bulk of the 2023 season.

Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, skyrocketed through the Marlins’ system and made his debut earlier this month, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. His next outing lasted just two-thirds of an inning before he exited due to elbow discomfort that sent him to the injured list. He’ll now spend the remainder of the season and the majority of the 2023 campaign on the Major League injured list, accumulating MLB service time and pay for the time spent rehabbing.

Prior to that rocky big league debut and subsequent injury, Meyer was universally regarded as one of the sport’s brightest pitching prospects. The former University of Minnesota ace breezed through Double-A last season and was even better in a 10-inning look at Triple-A last year, logging a combined 2.27 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate in 111 innings.

The 23-year-old Meyer roared out of the gates in 2022, logging a 1.72 ERA and 39-to-9 K/BB ratio in his first 31 1/3 innings, overpowering opponents with an upper-90s heater and devastating slider along the way. He struggled through a pair of awful outings in late May with Triple-A Jacksonville, however, ultimately going on the minor league injured list due to what the team termed irritation of the ulnar nerve in his right forearm. He came back strong — 2.11 ERA over his next five starts — and looked to be back on track for this month’s big league debut.

Whether Meyer had a tear prior to his big league promotion or didn’t sustain the tear until one of his two MLB outings, he’ll now be sidelined for the next year-plus. A return late in the 2023 season remains plausible, but that’s hardly a given. Every recovery is different, of course, but pitchers often take closer to 13 or 14 months to return from Tommy John surgery. For instance, we’re about one year to the day removed from Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull undergoing his own Tommy John procedure, and the organization just recently announced that Turnbull won’t return this season. If the Marlins are in contention in 2023, perhaps they’d push the envelope and take some risk to get Meyer back as a bullpen option late in the year, but they have every reason to be cautious with the flamethrowing righty, given how important a role he could play in their future.

Meyer joins fellow top prospects Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis), Sixto Sanchez (2021 surgery for torn anterior capsule in his shoulder) and Jake Eder (2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Miami has also seen 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers take a massive step back in his sophomore season. It’s all a good reminder — particularly at a time of year when fans and teams alike are wary of trading minor league pitching — that as easy as it is to dream on touted young arms , the attrition rate of pitching prospects is an unyielding roadblock that teams perennially struggle to navigate.

Astros’ Jose Siri Drawing Trade Interest

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The Astros are receiving trade interest in outfielder Jose Siri, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds that “a number of teams” have explored trading for the 27-year-old. Each of the Phillies, Marlins and Brewers have been seeking center field help, Rosenthal notes, though he doesn’t explicitly indicate that any of the three have had substantive talks with Houston.

Interest in Siri comes from other clubs at a time when the Astros are apparently seeking more proven options in center field, but it’s plenty understandable if other clubs would look at Siri’s strong MLB debut in 2021 and his outstanding Triple-A track record and hope he can emerge as a valuable long-term piece if they can land him in a deal with Houston. While he’s something of a late bloomer, having turned 27 just six days ago, Siri hit .304/.347/.609 with four homers and three steals in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut. This season, he struggled to a .178/.238/.304 slash in a larger (but still relatively small) sample of 147 trips to the plate.

Houston has twice optioned Siri to Triple-A Sugar Land this season (most recently one week ago), and in the 13 games he’s played there, he’s ripped eight home runs and batted .293/.354/.828 in 65 plate appearances. That eye-popping production from the right-handed-hitting slugger is further backed up by a huge .318/.369/.553 slash through 394 plate appearances with Houston’s top affiliate last season. Overall, he’s played in 107 games and tallied 462 plate appearances with the Astros’ Triple-A club, crushing 24 homers and swiping 25 bags in that time. Siri also posted through-the-roof defensive numbers in 315 innings of center field work for Houston this season: 8 Defensive Runs Saved, a 6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and 7 Outs Above Average.

While that combination of minor league production and exceptional defensive grades at the big league level is quite appealing, Siri’s strikeout woes are the proverbial elephant in the room. He’s had issues making contact since reaching the Double-A level with Cincinnati back in 2018. Siri punched out in 32.2% of his plate appearances that season and has continued to whiff in more than 30% of his plate appearances at nearly every stop since. He’s fanned “just” 16 times in Triple-A this year (24.6%), but Siri has fallen victim to a strikeout in one-third of his MLB plate appearances and in 30.9% of his total Triple-A plate appearances.

There’s extra reason for the Astros to consider offers on Siri, given that he’s in his final minor league option season. As a win-now club, Houston understandably seeks an immediate contributor in center, and while it’s tempting to say they should be patient with Siri given the power/speed/defense blend, he’ll have to be carried on the Major League roster next year or else be exposed to waivers. Considering his raw tools and Triple-A production (and the current trade interest), it’s quite likely he’d be claimed by another team if things were to reach that point, so extracting some value for Siri right now makes sense if the Astros can find a deal to their liking.

Siri has not yet accrued even one year of Major League service, though if he spends enough time on a big league roster down the stretch, he could still get there. Even if he does reach that point, he could still be controlled another five years beyond the current campaign (or six more if he spends another 17 days in the minors this year).

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Marlins Open To Trade Offers On Pablo Lopez, Looking To Upgrade Offense

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The Marlins have stumbled out of the All-Star Break, dropping three of their first five contests against below-.500 teams in the Rangers, Pirates and Reds. Paired with a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-rival Phillies to close out the season’s unofficial first half, Miami has dropped six of eight before tonight’s contest with Cincinnati.

Sitting 45-51 and 5 1/2 games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, the Marlins look increasingly unlikely to compete for a postseason berth. That’s particularly true with the news that the club’s best position player, Jazz Chisholm Jr., won’t return until September at the earliest due to a stress fracture in his back. In the face of those mounting odds, general manager Kim Ng and her staff are apparently willing to consider dealing notable players from the major league roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon that the Fish are willing to listen to offers on everyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara. It’s hard to imagine Miami trading Chisholm since he’s controllable through 2026 and currently on the injured list, but it seems the bulk of the team could be available. Aside from Alcantara and Chisholm, perhaps no one else on the roster would draw more interest than starter Pablo López. While Miami hasn’t previously shown much appetite for dealing López, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins are now willing to hear offers on the 26-year-old righty. According to Jackson and Mish, the Fish aren’t actively shopping López, but they’re “no longer dismissing calls” from interested teams.

Assuming Ng and her staff are willing to seriously consider offers on López, he’d be one of the top options available for rotation-needy clubs. After missing most of the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, he’s stayed healthy this year to take 20 starts. López owns a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate, a stingy 7.6% walk percentage and a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate. It’s the continuation of a few excellent years for the Venezuelan-born hurler, who has posted a sub-4.00 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk rates in each of the past three seasons.

López is only in his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’s making an affordable $2.45MM salary, around $974K of which is still to be paid before the end of the season. That’s affordable enough for every club, and López comes with an additional two seasons of control before he can hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s both cheaper and under a longer window of control than any of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas — the three hurlers who have generally been viewed as the top rotation trade candidates on the market.

There’s no need for Ng and her front office to force a deal given that extended window of club control, but they could view this as an opportunity to move him at the peak of his trade value. The Herald writes that the Marlins have not engaged López’s representatives at Excel Sports Management about a possible extension. Miami also has a fair bit of rotation depth and is looking for opportunities to invigorate an offense that carried a meager .238/.302/.376 line into play tonight.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins would like to add a left-handed power hitter for the 2023 lineup. Whether that’d come directly in a López deal is unclear — it’s rare for contenders to trade off their big league roster to address another area — but an openness to dealing away one of their top arms while searching for ways to add a controllable hitter suggests Ng and her staff aren’t approaching the deadline as a strict “buyer” or “seller.” Rather, it seems they’ll be one of a handful of teams — the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels and Orioles could be others — approaching the deadline more flexibly, recognizing that competing in 2022 is a longshot while still searching for ways to preemptively add to next year’s roster.

Of course, the rotation depth that could make the Marlins more amenable to parting with López has also been hit hard by injuries. Former top prospect Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two years. Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been on the injured list for months, and rookie Max Meyer joined them over the weekend after leaving the second start of his MLB career with elbow discomfort.

In a worrisome development, Jackson and Mish report that Tommy John surgery could be on the table for Meyer. The team is still awaiting the results of a recent MRI before determining whether surgery will be required, but a UCL reconstruction would likely cost him all of the 2023 season. Miami is certainly hoping the electric 23-year-old will be able to avoid that fate; the club figures to provide an update on the righty’s status in the coming days.

Whether Meyer eventually goes under the knife or not, the injury serves as a reminder that even teams with a seeming surplus of starting pitching can see that depth thinned out rather quickly. Indeed, Miami’s rotation has largely been propelled by excellent seasons from Alcantara and López. 2021 breakout southpaw Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing follow-up campaign, and the back of the rotation has been hit by the aforementioned injuries along with a woeful showing from Elieser Hernández, who found himself demoted to the bullpen.

If Miami follows through on dealing some veterans, López wouldn’t be the only player on the roster to attract interest. MLBTR examined a few of the club’s other possible trade candidates last week. First baseman/designated hitter Garrett Cooper has a season and a half of remaining control and is hitting .279/.347/.426 on the year. He landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right wrist contusion this afternoon, but he indicated he expects to return when first eligible on August 3 (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He won’t play again before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but injured players are able to be dealt, and it stands to reason other clubs will look past the injury if Cooper’s likely to return next week.

Brian Anderson and Jon Berti each looked like potential trade candidates, but they’re on the IL themselves. Anderson suffered a shoulder injury over the weekend, while Berti has yet to begin a rehab assignment after hurting his groin a little less than two weeks ago. They seem less likely than Cooper to be dealt given their longer-term recovery timelines.

Miami also has a handful of veteran relievers who could change hands. Right-hander Anthony Bass is controllable next season via $3MM club option, but he should draw interest with a 1.51 ERA through 41 2/3 innings on the year. Southpaws Steven Okert and Tanner Scott have missed plenty of bats and are controllable for multiple seasons beyond 2022, although each has struggled with his control. Richard Bleier is a more stable ground-ball specialist from the left side, while Dylan Floro is a righty with a broadly similar profile as Bleier.

Marlins Roster Moves

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The Marlins made a number of roster moves today, including moving All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the 60-day injured list. Anthony Bender and Cody Poteet were also moved to the 60-day injured list. Those moves cleared 40-man roster spots for Willians Astudillo, Jeff Brigham, and Huascar Brazoban, who were all added to the active roster. To create those spots on the active roster, Brian Anderson was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder strain, while Max Meyer and Tommy Nance were both placed on the 15-day injured list, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).

The Chisolm move is the most noteworthy (if expected) move of the bunch. The All-Star was recently diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back. The Marlins hope he can return by the end of the season, though that’s definitely in doubt.

It’s equally disappointing to see Meyer make a quick trip to the injured list after just two big league starts. The 23-year-old surrendered five earned runs in seven innings while striking out six and walking two.

Nance, a 31-year-old reliever, joins Meyer on the injured list. The former Cub has a 5.76 ERA/3.28 FIP in 19 outings covering 25 innings this season for the Marlins. The power righty misses a fair amount of bats, but struggled at times with his command. For the year, he has struck out a robust 29.9 percent of opponents, but he has also walked 11.1 percent of opposing hitters, a number that needs to come down in order for him to become an effective late-inning arm.

Brazoban made his Major League debut today, throwing an arsenal based around a sinker that neared 98 mph on average. The 32-year-old Dominican was playing in the independent league last season. Brigham, 30, has made 37 appearances for the Marlins over the past three seasons, posting a 5.01 ERA/5.32 FIP across 55 2/3 innings. Astudillo has stepped to the plate 38 times for the Marlins this season, slashing .270/.289/.351.

Injury Updates: Trout, Rodriguez, Buxton, Thielbar, Meyer

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Mike Trout hasn’t played since July 12 due to back spasms, and that absence morphed into a stint on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his left ribcage.  The Angels placed the superstar on the IL on July 18, but head trainer Mike Frostad told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group) that Trout will miss more than the minimum 10 days.  Trout received a cortisone shot in his back “a few days ago.”

It isn’t yet known when Trout could return, and any sort of lingering problem is obviously bad news for the Angels and their fans — especially after last season, when Trout played in only 36 games due to a seemingly minor calf injury that simply never healed.  Trout returned in 2022 to deliver another outstanding set of numbers, though it isn’t helped an Angels team that has fallen apart after an impressive first five weeks of play.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Julio Rodriguez has missed both of the Mariners’ games in the second half, as the rookie star is day-to-day with left wrist soreness.  Rodriguez first suffered the injury while sliding during a stolen-base attempt last Sunday, and he told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other reporters) that he felt more soreness after participating in the Home Run Derby on during Monday’s All-Star week festivities.  However, the injury is “feeling better already,” and Rodriguez doesn’t think he’ll miss much time.  Rodriguez has exploded onto the scene in his first season, hitting .275/.337/.477 with 15 homers and 21 steals over his first 380 plate appearances in the majors.
  • Byron Buxton will miss the Twins’ weekend series in Detroit, as the outfielder received a PRP injection in his right knee on Wednesday.  (Megan Ryan of The Minneapolis Star Tribune was among those to report the news.)  Buxton has been plagued by tendinitis in his right knee for much of the season, though he opted to play in the All-Star Game for the first time rather than sit out the entire break.  Since Minnesota has off-days sandwiched around this two-game series against the Tigers, Buxton will receive five days off anyway, and the hope is that he’ll be ready to play when the Twins face the Brewers on Tuesday.
  • In other Twins injury news, Minnesota placed left-hander Caleb Thielbar on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to July 19) due to a left hamstring strain.  Right-hander Yennier Cano was called up to take Thielbar’s spot on the active roster.  Thielbar has a rather misleading 4.84 ERA over 35 1/3 relief innings this season, as he has outstanding hard-contact and strikeout numbers, plus only a 3.00 SIERA.
  • Max Meyer made only 10 pitches before exiting tonight’s game due to what the Marlins described as right elbow discomfort.  The ominous diagnosis comes on the heels of some ulnar nerve irritation that sidelined Meyer while he was pitching in the minors earlier this season.  One of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Meyer was making his second career start after allowing five runs over 5 1/3 frames in his July 16 debut.

Marlins Promote JJ Bleday, Place Jorge Soler On Injured List

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The Marlins have selected the contract of former first-round pick JJ Bleday and added him to the active roster, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).  Bleday’s addition to the roster comes in response to Jorge Soler going on the 10-day injured list with lower back spasms.

There isn’t any backdating on Soler’s IL placement, so the veteran slugger will (at minimum) be out of action until the August 2 trade deadline.  Though Miami has several players who could be trade chips by the deadline, there hadn’t been much buzz about the possibility of Soler being traded, which speaks to both Soler’s contract, the Marlins’ longer-term plans, and his tough 2022 season.

Soler, the reigning World Series MVP, inked a three-year, $36MM free agent deal with the Marlins after the lockout.  Soler has the ability to opt out after both this season (leaving $24MM on the table) and after the 2023 season (leaving his $9MM salary for 2024 on the table), though it would seem unlikely that Soler would again test free agency on the heels of an underwhelming year to date.

Soler has hit .207/.295/.400 with 13 home runs over 306 plate appearances, with a 99 wRC+ that reflects slightly below-average production.  Despite the lack of big numbers, there is some evidence that Soler could turn it on in the second half.  After all, it was just last season that Soler went on a tear after being dealt to the Braves at the deadline, and he more or less carried that hot streak all the way through the World Series.

This year, Soler has outstanding hard-contact numbers and a .322 xwOBA that is above his .305 wOBA, even if that .322 mark is only around the league average.  Soler is also walking at an above-average rate but is swinging and missing a ton, as his 29.4% strikeout rate is only in the ninth percentile of all batters.  Teams are playing shifts against Soler 78% of the time, which is stifling his solid contact numbers — Soler has only a .275 wOBA against the shift, and a whopping .411 wOBA when not facing shifts.

Injuries have also played a role in the last few weeks, as Soler missed about two weeks at the start of July with bilateral pelvis inflammation, and played in only five games before this latest return to the IL.  It remains to be seen how much extra time Soler might miss (if more than 10 days), but his absence will open the door for Bleday’s Major League debut.

The fourth overall pick of the 2019 draft, Bleday has hit .229/.365/.470 with 20 home runs over 367 PA at Triple-A Jacksonville this season, his first exposure to Triple-A pitching.  It’s a nice breakout for Bleday, who didn’t hit much in his brief minor league debut in 2019 and then struggled in his first full season of pro ball in 2021.  His lack of results last year cost Bleday a slot in some top-100 prospect rankings, but MLB Pipeline still had him 69th on their preseason list.

Of course, Bleday didn’t play at all in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, so it isn’t necessarily surprising that it took some time to get back on track.  The 24-year-old’s performance in 2022 has seemingly quieted a lot of questions about his power potential and on-base ability, though Bleday is still not hitting for average and is still swinging-and-missing (99 strikeouts in those 367 PA) at a high rate.

Bleday’s strong throwing arm has made him more of a right-field candidate than his initial center field position, and in Miami, Avisail Garcia could slide over to left field to accommodate regular playing time for the rookie, or Bleday could simply take over left field himself.  With the Marlins perhaps already planning towards 2023, Bleday could very well get a long look as a potential candidate for an everyday spot next year.  Assuming Soler doesn’t opt out, he and Garcia are longer-term options in the corner outfield spots, but the DH is also available to juggle playing time down the road.

Jazz Chisholm Diagnosed With Stress Fracture In Back

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The Marlins will be without star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. for quite some time, as a CT scan has revealed a stress fracture in his back, Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald report (Twitter link). That comes with around a six-week recovery timetable, and Chisholm will likely then need to ramp back up to game activity.

It’s a brutal injury for a Marlins team that is on the fringe of the National League Wild Card race (six games back) and determining whether to add some veteran pieces or sell off short-term assets with the trade deadline looming. The 24-year-old Chisholm has emerged as Miami’s best position player and one of the better all-around talents in the National League, slashing .254/.325/.535 with 14 home runs, 10 doubles, four triples and a dozen stolen bases in 241 plate appearances this year.

That output would put Chisholm on pace for a potential 30-homer, 30-steal season — all while playing standout defense at second base. This latest injury, however, looks as though it’ll sideline the dynamic Miami second baseman for the majority of the games remaining on the schedule. Nagging back issues have interrupted the breakout season for the first-time All-Star, who initially landed on the 10-day injured list in late June with what had been termed a lower back strain.

The Fish have felt Chisholm’s absence, limping to a .206/.266/.304 line since he landed on the shelf. They’re currently riding a four-game losing streak in which they’re scored a total of one run, and they haven’t plated more than five runs in any contest since July 3. That stretch has dealt a notable hit to their chances of hanging around in the Wild Card race, and losing their best player only makes a second-half push seem more far-fetched. Frustrations with the offense have understandably mounted, with manager Don Mattingly saying yesterday the Marlins have a “stagnant club that sits and hopes we hit a home run or a couple doubles” while both Chisholm and stolen base leader Jon Berti have been on the injured list (video link via Jeremy Tache of Bally Sports Florida). The skipper added it’s been “frustrating” to get down years from players like Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler, each of whom was brought in via multi-year free agent deals over the winter.

Mish tweeted yesterday that unhappiness was predictably mounting throughout the organization, suggesting the team could soon turn to former #4 overall pick JJ Bleday in hopes of sparking the offense. Bleday has seen his stock fall notably since he’s been in pro ball, but he’s at least reaching base at a .365 clip with Triple-A Jacksonville this season. General manager Kim Ng and her staff will have to decide how to proceed with the roster over the next few weeks, with Miami featuring a host of veteran role players who could hold appeal to contenders were the Marlins to make them available.

Marlins Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Jacob Berry

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The Marlins have agreed to terms with first-round pick Jacob Berry, according to Joe Frisaro of Man On Second Baseball. Frisaro says that the sixth overall selection will be receiving a bonus of $6MM, which is just a hair below the $6.03MM slot value for the pick.

Berry, a third baseman out of Louisiana State University, posted a ridiculous .370/.464/.630 batting line on the year, hitting 15 home runs in the process. In addition to that potent bat, Berry will bring some versatility to the table, as he is a switch-hitter who also saw some time in the outfield corners this year. Baseball America placed him eighth on their pre-draft rankings, complimenting his plate discipline but adding that his defense is his weakest trait. Still, they note that his bat should still play even if his defensive shortcomings result in a move to first or designated hitter down the road. Berry also came in at #8 over at FanGraphs, was #9 at ESPN, #27 at The Athletic and #7 at MLB Pipeline.

By getting Berry to agree to an under-slot deal, the Marlins will be able to reapportion that small amount of money to try and sign other draft picks.

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