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Pre-Break Sweep Raises Questions About Marlins’ Deadline Outlook

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With the trade deadline two weeks away, a good portion of the league has a general idea of how they plan to approach things. 16 teams either occupy or are within two games of a playoff spot. Barring a massive losing streak coming out of the All-Star Break, those clubs figure to explore ways to improve the 2022 roster. 11 more teams are six or more games out of the playoff race, and with the exception of the Rangers, they’ve all been outscored by 30+ runs on the year. How aggressively they’ll sell will vary, but there’s little reason for those teams to not at least explore the possibility of dealing some impending free agents.

That leaves three teams in a somewhat nebulous middle ground. The Orioles and White Sox each sit 3 1/2 back in the AL Wild Card standings, while Chicago is three out in the division race. MLBTR examined the Orioles’ deadline dilemma last week, while the White Sox seem likely to stay the course and hope for better second halves from some key players. The final team between two and six games out is the Marlins, whose deadline approach figures to be tied quite heavily to how they perform in the first week out of the break.

Miami was within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot as recently as last Friday. A weekend sweep at the hands of the Phillies, who moved into a tie for the NL’s third Wild Card spot in the process, dropped the Fish to 43-48 and 5 1/2 out. It was a brutal three games that dealt a real hit in the standings — the club’s playoff probability fell from 7.6% to 2.7% over the weekend, according to FanGraphs’ estimates — but the Marlins will have an opportunity to salvage their postseason hopes before the August 2 trade deadline. Miami kicks off the unofficial second half with a standalone game against Texas before hosting Pittsburgh (three games) and going to Cincinnati (four games). If the Marlins can take six of those eight contests, they’d be back around .500 heading into their pre-deadline series against the NL East-leading Mets. Going 4-4 or even 5-3 over those relatively soft first two series probably wouldn’t be enough to deter general manager Kim Ng and her group from dealing some near-term talent.

Another full teardown seems unlikely. Earlier this month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Miami owner Bruce Sherman didn’t want to orchestrate a deadline sell-off “barring a collapse” from the team. Exactly what constitutes a “collapse” in Sherman’s and Ng’s eyes obviously isn’t clear, but it seems unlikely one sweep would cause Miami to totally reevaluate whether they want to move a controllable star like Pablo López. Yet even if Miami isn’t willing to part with their most valuable trade pieces this summer, they could make a few decent role playing types available.

Who might be attainable if the Marlins do decide to sell?

Garrett Cooper, 1B/DH

Cooper has been frequently mentioned as a trade candidate on MLBTR’s pages over the past couple years. The 31-year-old is a consistently good hitter when healthy, but he’d missed notable time each season from 2018-21. Cooper has avoided the injured list this season (aside from a very brief stint for virus symptoms) and played his way to an All-Star Game for the first time. He owns a .283/.349/.434 line with seven home runs and 21 doubles through 327 plate appearances. Throughout his career, he’s shown a knack for running strong batting averages on balls in play. He makes a lot of hard contact, hits plenty of line drives and generally uses the whole field to hit for gap power, even as he’s never hit more than 15 homers in a season.

Miami has resisted trading Cooper to this point, but he’s down to his final season and a half of club control. He’s only making $2.5MM this year, but that’s likely to jump to the $5MM range for his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s certainly not onerous but the Marlins annually run a bottom ten payroll and this could be the best chance to recoup decent prospect value while Cooper’s healthy. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this month that the Dodgers could have interest.

Jon Berti, INF/OF

Berti’s a versatile speedster who’s having a career-best season. He’s hitting .271/.365/.375 with a pair of home runs and an excellent 12.2% walk rate across 222 plate appearances. That plate discipline has allowed Berti to reach base quite frequently, and he’s wrecked havoc once there. He has swiped 28 bases on the year, six more than anyone else in MLB despite only playing in around 64% of the team’s games. Berti’s slash-and-dash approach is rare, but he’s making it work and had earned a role at the top of the Miami lineup before going on the 10-day injured list late last week with a mild left groin strain.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on his return, and perhaps the injury will rule him out as a trade candidate. If it’s minor enough he returns before the deadline and looks no worse for wear as a runner, though, it stands to reason he’ll draw interest from contenders. In addition to his baserunning acumen, he’s started multiple games at each of third base, second base, shortstop, and in left field this year. Miami can control him through 2025, so they don’t have to make a deal even if they move some other players, but he’s already 32 years old and having perhaps a career season. This’ll probably be the apex of his trade value, particularly since this year’s infield market is very thin.

Brian Anderson, 3B/COF

It’s unlikely the Marlins deal both Berti and Anderson, but they may have enough infield depth to feel comfortable parting with one of the two. Miami acquired Joey Wendle from the Rays over the winter, intending to supplant Anderson at third base after he underperformed in 2021. Wendle has been solid when healthy but missed a notable stretch between May and June with hamstring troubles. That afforded Anderson more playing time at the hot corner than anticipated, and he’s bounced back with a solid .262/.358/.393 showing across 193 plate appearances.

Anderson, 29, is controllable through the end of next season via arbitration. He’s already making $4.475MM this year and will earn a bit of a bump during his final season of arb-eligibility. As with Cooper, it’s possible Miami sees this as an opportunity to bring in some young talent while reallocating the projected 2023 salary elsewhere. Anderson is a good player, a well-rounded everyday third baseman. Yet Miami already has Wendle and Berti as options at the position, and they signed Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler to multi-year deals over the winter to plug the corner outfield. It’s a deep collection of corner players that might squeeze Anderson out of the mix.

Elieser Hernández, RHP

Hernández would be more of a change-of-scenery candidate than a solution for a contender. Throughout his big league tenure, he’s shown a strong combination of strikeouts and walks but given up far too many home runs. He’s taken that to a particular extreme in 2022, serving up a staggering 18 longballs in 53 innings (3.06 HR/9). That’s far and away a career-worst mark for a pitcher who was already one of the league’s most homer-prone arms. Unsurprisingly, Hernández has an ERA above 6.00 and lost his spot in the rotation in May.

Perhaps the home run troubles are so pronounced there won’t be much interest. Hernández hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the yard even in one of the game’s more spacious home parks. Still, we’ve seen teams place bets on pitchers like Andrew Heaney and Yusei Kikuchi over the years, valuing strikeout stuff and betting that tweaks to a pitcher’s repertoire and/or simple home run rate regression will even things out. Perhaps some team feels the same way about Hernández and will look to buy-low on a pitcher making just $1.325MM and arb-eligible through 2024.

Anthony Bass/Steven Okert/Dylan Floro, RP

Miami has a handful of capable if unexciting middle relief arms who should draw some attention from contenders. Bass, 34, is a prototypical journeyman but has posted an ERA below 4.00 in each of the past five seasons. He throws in the mid-90s, pounds the strike zone and misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. He’s making $3MM this year and has a matching club option for 2023.

Okert isn’t yet arbitration-eligible, while Floro is making $3MM and arb-eligible for one more season. A former minor league signee, Okert is a 31-year-old southpaw who has posted swinging strike rates north of 13% in each of the last two years. He’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced as a result, and he’s handled hitters from both sides of the plate. Okert struggles with walks and home runs, but a southpaw who misses bats is always likely to attract some amount of interest. Floro is essentially the polar opposite. The 31-year-old righty doesn’t throw hard or generate many whiffs, but he’s a volume strike-thrower who consistently induces grounders at a strong clip.

Longer shot possibilities

Ng and her staff could also try to find a taker for first baseman Jesús Aguilar, who is set to hit free agency at the end of the year (assuming the team declines its end of a 2023 mutual option). Interest figures to be modest for a defensively-limited player who’s hitting just .252/.299/.401 while making $7.5MM, however. It’s possible they could flip Wendle or catcher Jacob Stallings, but Miami acquired both over the winter to upgrade the lineup. With each controllable for at least another season (and Stallings having a down year), that seems unlikely.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the team will try to play its way out of any sort of sell-off. They’ll have a stretch of below .500 teams to start off, giving them an opportunity to get back into the playoff periphery. Getting swept heading into the break digs them a significant hole, though, and the Miami front office figures to field a number of calls on their veteran complementary players with dwindling windows of control.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Marlins To Promote Max Meyer

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The Marlins are set to promote top pitching prospect Max Meyer, the team announced on Twitter (with video of him learning the news). Craig Mish of SportsGrid reports (Twitter link) that Meyer will start on Saturday against the Phillies.

It’ll be the major league debut for the right-hander, who flew through the minors. Miami selected Meyer with the third overall pick in the 2020 draft. The University of Minnesota product was the first pitcher off the board, and he’s excelled over his first two years in pro ball. There was no minor league season during his draft year because of the pandemic, and the Fish aggressively assigned Meyer to Double-A Pensacola for his first game action in 2021.

Meyer handled the assignment with aplomb, pitching to a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts. He punched out an above-average 27.2% of opponents while inducing ground-balls on more than half the batted balls he surrendered. Meyer’s walks were a touch high, but it was a promising showing for his first full pro season. He earned a late-season cameo at Triple-A Jacksonville and headed into last offseason as one of the sport’s better pitching prospects.

Entering the 2022 campaign, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted Meyer among the game’s top 100 overall prospects. He drew praise for a mid-upper 90s fastball and a slider that some evaluators considered the best single pitch in the 2020 draft class. The quality of his changeup was a bit more divisive, with FanGraphs and ESPN projecting it to average or better but BA considering it more of a fringy offering.

Meyer isn’t necessarily regarded as a future ace. BA and Keith Law of the Athletic (who slotted him fifth in the Miami system heading into the year) each noted that some evaluators point to his lack of pinpoint fastball command as a reason to project a potential bullpen future. That said, all four outlets suggested Meyer has the potential to be an above-average, mid-rotation or better arm if his command comes along. The Marlins will surely give him every opportunity to cement himself in the starting five over the coming seasons.

This year, the 23-year-old has continued to overpower upper minors hitters. He’s made 12 starts with the Jumbo Shrimp, tossing 58 innings of 3.72 ERA ball. He has a 28.4% strikeout percentage with a 50% grounder rate, and he’s cut his walk rate slightly from 9.6% in Double-A to 8.3% this season. Meyer spent a month on the injured list between mid-May and June, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts since returning.

It remains to be seen whether Meyer will hold a rotation spot for good now that he’s headed to the big leagues, but there should be an opportunity if the club feels he’s ready for consistent run against MLB hitters. Miami’s top three is set in stone. Sandy Alcantara is performing at a Cy Young level, and Pablo López is having another excellent year. Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing first half, but he’s certainly not in danger of losing a rotation spot after an All-Star 2021 campaign.

The final two spots have been more questionable, in part due to injury. Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo opened the year fourth and fifth on the depth chart. Hernández had a dreadful first few months and was eventually optioned to Jacksonville. He’s since been recalled but has worked in long relief. Luzardo, meanwhile, hit the injured list in May with a forearm strain and has yet to return to the big leagues. Sixto Sánchez hasn’t pitched all season, while Cody Poteet and Edward Cabrera have been on the IL for a while.

Former first-rounder Braxton Garrett has pitched well through seven starts since replacing Hernández in the rotation last month. Daniel Castano has stepped into the #5 role and held his own, working to a 4.35 ERA over six starts. He’s only striking out around 13% of hitters, though, so Meyer will certainly be a more high-octane option. Castano still has an option year remaining, and he can head back to Jacksonville or work out of the major league bullpen as needed.

The upcoming series is critical for the Marlins, who sit at 43-45. They’re three games back in the Wild Card standings. The Phils are one of two teams between them and the Cardinals, who currently hold the final playoff spot in the National League. The next two and a half weeks could shape how general manager Kim Ng and her staff approach the upcoming trade deadline, and they’ll turn to one of the sport’s most interesting young arms at this pivotal stage of the season.

Meyer is not on the 40-man roster, so the Marlins will have to formally select his contract on Saturday. Miami’s 40-man roster is full, but they can clear a roster spot by transferring one of their injured pitchers from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list. Reliever Anthony Bender has already missed almost two months and just began a rehab assignment today, so transferring him would be little more than a formality.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

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The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

Orioles Claim Louis Head From Marlins, Designate Kirk McCarty

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4:30pm: The Orioles have announced the claim and that Head has been optioned to Triple-A. To make room on the 40-man roster, they have designated lefty Kirk McCarty for assignment. McCarty had just been claimed off waivers from the Guardians last week and thrown four innings for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides before heading back into DFA limbo. The O’s will have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him.

1:20pm: The Orioles have claimed right-hander Louis Head off waivers from the Marlins, according to Mark Feinsand and Christina De Nicola of MLB.com.

Head, 32, made his major league debut with the Rays last year, throwing 35 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 31.1% ground ball rate. There was likely some good fortune keeping that ERA down, as Head allowed a .216 batting average on balls in play, well below last year’s .290 league average.

In the offseason, the Rays flipped him to the Marlins for a player to be named later, which was eventually revealed to be Josh Roberson. Here in 2022, the Marlins surely didn’t get what they were hoping for out of Head. Through 23 2/3 innings, he has an unfortunate 7.23 ERA, with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 26.4% ground ball rate, all of those numbers being worse than league average. He was placed on the IL on June 23 with an impingement in his non-throwing shoulder. He began a rehab assignment three days ago but won’t return to the Marlins, heading to the Baltimore organization instead.

The move is a little curious, as Head still has options. When he finished his rehab assignment, he could have simply been sent to Triple-A as depth, but the Marlins evidently wanted to move on instead. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, only release waivers. Although there had not been any public indication he’d been designated for assignment, it appears the Marlins put him on release waivers recently, with the Orioles putting in a claim.

Baltimore has a full 40-man roster at the moment, meaning a corresponding move of some kind will be required to accommodate Head’s addition.

Latest On Pirates’ Trade Possibilities

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Few players who could plausibly be moved this summer would be as impactful a pickup as Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates center fielder isn’t performing at quite his star level from last season, but he’s having another well above-average campaign. Through 335 plate appearances entering play Friday, Reynolds owns a .257/.337/.463 line with 15 home runs, 10 doubles and a trio of stolen bases.

Controllable for another three-plus seasons, there’d be no shortage of interest if the Bucs make him available over the coming weeks. Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Yankees, Marlins, Phillies, Padres and Mariners among the teams likely to gauge his availability. There are no surprises among that group, as all five are known to be in the hunt for outfield help and/or have made unsuccessful attempts to pry Reynolds away in the past.

New York has relied on Aaron Judge in center field to great results, but they’ve grown dissatisfied with the continued struggles of Joey Gallo and (to a lesser extent) Aaron Hicks in the corners. They could eye Reynolds either to plug directly into left field or as a center field option capable of kicking Judge back to right. Miami and Philadelphia have direct needs in center field and figure to inquire about various possibilities at the position; the Fish have been linked to Oakland’s Ramón Laureano as well.

San Diego has holes in both corner spots and has watched center fielder Trent Grisham flounder for most of the year. Seattle may have the most robust outfield of any of the reported Reynolds suitors, but Jarred Kelenic struggled enough to be optioned to Triple-A and they’ve not gotten the production they’d anticipated from Jesse Winker or Mitch Haniger this season (the latter on account of injuries).

The quintet, of course, would certainly be joined by other suitors if the Pirates actively shopped Reynolds. Pittsburgh, however, has set a justifiably lofty asking price both at last summer’s deadline and over the winter. That makes him a longshot to actually change hands, and Heyman notes in a separate piece that it remains “unlikely” the Bucs will find a compelling enough offer to make a move.

That may also be true of star closer David Bednar, whom Heyman floats as a possible trade candidate. One of five players the Pirates acquired in the January 2021 Joe Musgrove deal, Bednar has emerged as one of the sport’s best late-inning weapons. Since landing in Pittsburgh, the right-hander has posted a 2.26 ERA while holding opponents to a .187/.255/.321 line in just shy of 100 frames. That includes 39 innings of 2.31 ERA ball this season, with Bednar punching out more than a third of batters faced and likely to earn his first All-Star nod.

The 27-year-old comes with even more club control than Reynolds, as he’s slated to remain in Pittsburgh through 2026. Bednar won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until the 2024 campaign, so there’s no financial pressure for the Bucs to make a deal. Needless to say, they’d have to be blown away by a package to pull the trigger on a Bednar trade as well.

One player the Bucs are virtually assured of trading is starter José Quintana. The veteran southpaw is having a solid bounceback season after signing a $2MM free agent deal over the winter. He’s a sensible back-end rotation target for teams seeking pitching help, and the Bucs have already fielded hits from contenders. As an impeding free agent on a team that won’t come anywhere near the postseason, he’s as good a bet as any player in the league to change uniforms over the next few weeks.

Quintana suggested he’s not dwelling on the possibility of being dealt, saying he’s “(staying) focused on one start at a time” (link via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). He acknowledged a move was a possibility, but indicated he’d be open to returning to Pittsburgh in free agency next winter. “For sure, I want to come back here. But I think it’s too soon to talk about that. I want to keep my eyes focused on this season, one start at a time.” Nothing would preclude the Bucs from reengaging with Quintana’s representatives during the offseason if/when he’s dealt this month, but this season’s solid 3.33 ERA/3.96 SIERA make it likely he’ll land a loftier guarantee (and perhaps a two-year commitment) if he continues to pitch well down the stretch.

Marlins Outright Erik Gonzalez

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Infielder Erik Gonzalez cleared outright waivers following last week’s DFA and has been assigned to the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate in Jacksonville, per the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. Gonzalez, who was designated for assignment last week when the Marlins selected the contract of veteran center fielder Billy Hamilton, has enough service time to reject the assignment and elect free agency if he chooses.

The 30-year-old Gonzalez has had a pair of stints with Miami this season, hitting at a combined .189/.268/.216 clip in a tiny sample of 41 plate appearances. He entered the 2022 season with a more palatable, albeit still well below-average, career batting line of .245/.276/.345 (853 plate appearances).

Miami is the third big league stop of Gonzalez’s seven-year big league career. He’s previously spent time in Cleveland and in Pittsburgh but has primarily filled a utility role. The versatile infielder has never topped 81 games played or 229 plate appearances in a single Major League season.

Along the way, Gonzalez has appeared at all four infield positions and in all three outfield slots, although the vast majority of his time has been split between shortstop (781 innings), third base (655 innings) and second base (384 innings). Gonzalez has plus defensive ratings at all three of those positions per each of Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, with his work at third base, in particular, standing out (13 DRS, 4 OAA).

The right-handed-hitting Gonzalez opened the year with a .339/.376/.431 showing through 186 plate appearances in Triple-A. He’s a career .268/.308/.396 hitter in just over 1200 plate appearances at that level.

Marlins Select Billy Hamilton, Designate Erik Gonzalez

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The Marlins announced a series of roster moves Friday, selecting the contract of veteran outfielder Billy Hamilton from Triple-A Jacksonville and designating infielder Erik Gonzalez for assignment to clear roster space. Miami also reinstated Joey Wendle from the 10-day injured list and placed slugger Jorge Soler on the 10-day IL with what they’re terming “bilateral pelvis inflammation.”

Miami just signed Hamilton to a minor league contract a couple weeks ago. He made just one appearance with Jacksonville before being called up, and he’s now in position to log his first MLB action of the year. Hamilton adds a speed and defense element to an outfield that has otherwise been lacking a prototypical center fielder. Miami has relied on Jesus Sanchez, who’s probably better suited for a corner outfield role, in center field of late.

Sanchez, of course, will remain the primary center fielder even with Hamilton’s arrival. The fleet-footed veteran hasn’t hit well, putting up only a .213/.269/.299 line since the start of the 2019 campaign. Even with excellent defense and baserunning, that offensive output has been too light to merit regular playing time at the big league level. He’ll add an interesting complementary skill set to the bench for skipper Don Mattingly.

Gonzalez has had a pair of separate stints in the majors this season, the first coming as a COVID replacement. The former Pirate has suited up in 16 MLB games with Miami, playing all four infield spots but not offering much at the plate. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, Gonzalez has had a nice season in Jacksonville. Through 186 plate appearances with the Jumbo Shrimp, he’s hit .339/.376/.431 and swiped seven bases.

With Wendle back and Soler landing on the IL, Miami will turn the final bench spot over to an outfielder at the expense of some infield depth. Gonzalez, who is out of minor league option years, had to be designated for assignment to be taken off the active roster. Miami will have a week to trade him or, more likely, run him through waivers. If he passes through the wire unclaimed, he’d have the right to elect free agency as a player with over three years of big league service time.

Outrights: Astudillo, Romero

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A couple of recent DFA resolutions to start the morning here at MLBTR…

  • Utilityman Willians Astudillo went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Jacksonville by the Marlins, per the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. The 30-year-old Astudillo appeared in 17 games with the Fish, posting a .270/.289/.351 batting line in 38 plate appearances. True to form, Astudillo struck out just twice and walked only once in that span. That’s par for the course, as Astudillo uncanny bat-to-ball skills and overwhelmingly free-swinging nature have resulted in minuscule 4.7% strikeout and 1.9% walk rates through 571 Major League plate appearances, mostly coming with the Twins from 2018-21. Unfortunately, while he is perhaps more adept than anyone in the game at putting the ball in play, he rarely does so with any authority (career 86 mph average exit velocity, 31% hard-hit rate). The catcher-turned-super-utilityman has also played every position on the diamond, including six innings of mop-up relief in blowouts over the past few years. Astudillo technically reached three years of Major League service time just days before being designated for assignment, so he should have the ability to reject the assignment in favor of free agency if he chooses.
  • Outfielder Stefen Romero has been assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma City by the Dodgers after clearing outright waivers, per the team’s transaction log. Romero made it back to the Majors last week after a six-year absence and a lengthy run in Japan, so it was somewhat deflating to see that the Dodgers never actually used him in a game before designating him for assignment. Romero doesn’t have three years of service and hasn’t been previously outrighted, so he’ll head back to OKC in hopes of earning another look at a later date. After hitting .264/.331/.497 in five seasons over in Japan, Romero has posted a similar .270/.337/.461 slash through 102 plate appearances so far in Triple-A with the Dodgers.

Latest On Marlins’ Deadline Plans

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The Marlins, owners of a 34-40 record, have plenty of baseball to play before committing as a buyer or seller at the August 2nd Trade Deadline. Given that record however, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald spoke with Miami GM Kim Ng about the club’s upcoming plans given their likely status as deadline sellers.

Ng, like most front office members in June, didn’t throw the towel in on the season, but admitted the team will need to close the gap in the NL East (13 games back of the Mets) or Wild Card race (7 games back of the Cardinals) if her club is to pursue veteran additions at the deadline: “[Y]ou want to be within striking distance. I hope we get there. The club is playing a lot better this month than they were last month. We’re getting healthier.” 

Ng also added that the club will be ready to increase its payroll in the right scenario: “If we feel that we’re within that striking distance, I think [owner Bruce Sherman] will continue to be supportive.” That striking distance won’t be easy to obtain, of course, as two competitive clubs in the Giants and Phillies are currently blocking Miami from even sniffing the Wild Card spots held by the Padres, Braves, and Cardinals.

Should the club end up selling in a month’s time, Mish and Jackson speculate that the team has a few bullpen arms that will be in high demand. The most likely candidates include Anthony Bass (1.74 ERA in 31 innings) and lefty Steven Okert (2.28 ERA in 23 plus innings), two relievers in their thirties with club control that extends beyond this season. Given the club’s crop of pitching on the farm and several other arms of note already in the bullpen, either veteran reliever figures to be expendable if it helps strengthen the club next season.

Interestingly, Mish and Jackson cite the back of the bullpen as an area to improve via trade if the club heats up in the next month. As buyers the club also figures to target “a high-end center fielder,” per the report, though center field will likely be an area to watch even if the team is selling, thanks to the underperformance and misalignment of the team’s current outfield unit. Center field has been an area of focus for Miami dating back to the offseason, but they’ve yet to find a sufficient everyday solution and have instead regularly trotted out a carousel of miscast corner bats.

The Marlins currently hold a 3.9% chance of making the playoffs in the eyes of FanGraphs, but plenty of time remains for the club to turn into bullpen buyers over Steven Okert sellers. Turnarounds from 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers plus offseason acquisitions Avisail Garcia and Jacob Stallings could go a long way in bolstering a club that is otherwise receiving sneakily elite production atop its rotation and throughout its lineup.

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