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Twins Still Searching For Major Rotation Addition

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We’re closing in on the one-year anniversary of these memorable words from Twins GM Thad Levine: “The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open. We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”

Last season, the Minnesota roster shattered the pane with 101 wins. A roster that front office characterized as possessing an “unusual abundance of variance and volatility” came up aces. Now, Levine and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey have no real choice but to believe in the talent on hand and take on the mentality of a clear contender. There are several areas to consider for improvement, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained at the outset of the offseason, the rotation was the prime area of focus.

So, how to understand the club’s early maneuvering? Falvey and Levine opened the offseason by bringing back two preexisting players at much higher prices than they had played for in the prior two seasons. The added cost is understandable in each instance, as both pitchers boosted their value with quality seasons. Jake Odorizzi doesn’t seem likely to vastly outperform the $17.8MM he’s now promised after accepting the qualifying offer — he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate his excellent results from 2019 — but it’s an appealing contract for the team since it comes without any future obligations. And just-re-inked hurler Michael Pineda seemed like a plausible candidate to be pursued at a higher rate of pay, so his two-year, $20MM contract seems at worst to be a market-value move that comes with real upside.

The front office is pleased with these re-acquisitions, as it should be, but the rotation remains incomplete. “I do think we’ve stabilized the team and that was essential,” Levine explains to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). “Now, we still have the ability to impact it significantly. But, first steps first, was to stabilize.”

Odorizzi and Pineda helped the Twins to a magical 2019 regular season and can undoubtedly be a big part of driving another winner. Doubling down on last year’s unit is mostly a fine strategy. But that roster variability that the Twins’ upper management cited this time last year? It cuts both ways. Mitch Garver might turn into a pumpkin. Nelson Cruz could show his age. Odorizzi and Pineda are hardly assured of repeating their ’19 efforts. Injuries and performance backslides are always possible. With the Indians facing uncertainty, the White Sox trying to figure out precisely how to vault into contention, and the remainder of the AL Central firmly in the rebuilding camp, now isn’t the time for the Twins to play it safe.

Retaining Odorizzi and Pineda was the prelude — but to what? Levine says that the team is “aspirational of getting the best players we can get.” He also suggested patience in making that happen. “What we’ve seen the last couple of years is that this process has skewed later and later each year,” says Levine of free agency. “Maybe we’re seeing it rebound a little bit this offseason and we’re going to be attentive to that. But we’re having a lot of meetings now to put ourselves in the best position to proceed.”

Just how it’ll all shake out remains to be seen. The Twins aren’t in the market for Gerrit Cole but do have eyes on the next tier of available arms. Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu have long been known to be targets. Fellow southpaw starter Dallas Keuchel is also of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Hayes also emphasizes the possibility of trades, even noting that the front office hasn’t ruled out dealing from among its very best prospects. Trouble is, the trade market isn’t exactly laden with obviously available, high-end hurlers. Robbie Ray is probably the best rental arm that could be had; otherwise, Chris Archer may be the next-best single-season target that seems to be available. Matthew Boyd and Caleb Smith are among the controllable pitchers that ought to be open for bids. It is difficult to imagine deals coming together with the Rockies (Jon Gray, German Marquez), Mets (Noah Syndergaard), or Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price), but the Twins have surely inquired. Unfortunately, some of the most intriguing wild-card targets (Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger) play for the division-rival Indians.

The Twins aren’t the only organization playing this high-stakes game at the moment. Intense and widespread demand explains why the Phillies spent big to land Zack Wheeler — beating the Twins and others to do so — while the Nationals went to such heights to retain Stephen Strasburg. If and when the Twins finally put the wraps on a major transaction to haul in a top-shelf starter, it’ll likely sting the wallet or the farm. But with that metaphorical window now wide open, it’s incumbent upon the organization to dedicate real resources to taking advantage.

Yankees’ “Total Focus” On Gerrit Cole

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The Yankees “total focus” remains on reeling in the winter’s big fish: ace starter Gerrit Cole, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. That Cole is a priority for the Yankees is old news, though Heyman’s characterization certainly seems to stake a higher degree of urgency to the Yankees’ intent.

The nostalgic among us can take this opportunity to think fondly of the Yankees of yore, who routinely targeted their man in free agency with this kind of fervor. It’s been a few years since a free agent made this kind of impression on the Yanks, though they attacked the opportunity to trade for James Paxton last offseason with similar drive.

The urgency isn’t shocking coming off 2019, which proved an interesting campaign in New York. Injuries decimated the roster, but the offense never missed a beat no matter who stepped into the void (hello, Gio Urshela). They coasted to 103 wins and a division title, defeated the Minnesota Twins in the playoffs as they are wont to do, only to see the favor repaid in full by the new powerhouse of the day Houston Astros. The Yankees found themselves booted from the playoffs for the third time in the last five seasons by the Astros, making this pursuit of the ex-Astro Cole feel all the more crazy-eyed. That said, there is rarely a free agent with Cole’s pedigree, and if they’re going to channel the ghost of Steinbrenner and go all-in for a free agent, Cole is a worthy target.

Which is, of course, exactly why interest in the right-hander runs so rampant. As Heyman put it, the Yankees “don’t want to be denied” in their pursuit of Cole, but there is no shortage of contenders, including both LA teams, the Rangers, and the Phillies (who are a little crazy-eyed themselves these days). All five clubs have ample cause to pull out all the stops for Cole – on paper, they’re not alone.

White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Twins Among Runners-Up For Jordan Lyles

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Before Jordan Lyles signed his two-year, $16MM deal to join the Texas Rangers rotation, there was no shortage of interest in the big righty. Though we don’t know which (if any) of these teams made official offers, we do know that the White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers and Twins were among the teams with interest, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Without financial specifics, it’s presumptuous to assume much in regards to the interest level of these four clubs, but the size of the contract inked by Lyles at least hints at a low-scale bidding war for the back-end rotation arm.

The Brewers interest is not surprising, given they acquired Lyles around the deadline in each of the past two seasons and he pitched to a 2.45 ERA (4.42 FIP) to close out 2019. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out that the Brewers have now lost the bidding on each of their free agent targets thus far (except Justin Grimm!), suggesting either limited payroll flexibility or disciplined judiciousness on the part of GM David Stearns. Of course, Lyles signed for more than most would have guessed, and Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas signed for a combined 8-years, $137MM, a stratum the Brewers were hardly expected to reach. On the plus side, should the Rangers scuffle and Brewers stay in the race, we could see the rare baseball trade turkey, when a team successfully strikes for the same player at the deadline for three consecutive seasons.

The Twins and White Sox are two of the more eager starting pitching hunters this offseason, so their inclusion on this list is no surprise either. Both teams are likely to sign a couple of veteran free agents before the winter is out. As for the Blue Jays, they have less urgency given their timeline, though Lyles certainly fits the mold of the type of free agent they are likely to target.

Quick Hits: Mets, Astros, Lindblom, Shaw, Twins, Lyles

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There may be huge changes on the horizon for the Mets, as minority owner Steve Cohen is reportedly in talks to become the franchise’s control person by 2025. That could be good news for Mets fans, many of whom have been fed up with current majority owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon for years. David Waldstein, Kevin Draper and James Wagner of the New York Times just profiled the Wilpons, and if you’re a Mets fan who reads that, you’ll probably grow even happier that the team could change hands in the next several years. As part of a piece that seems to list one damning Wilpon tidbit after another, Waldstein, Draper and Wagner note that the Mets have lost $60MM-plus in each of the past two seasons. That helps put them “at the limit of debt allowed by Major League Baseball rules,” they write. It’s unclear what that will mean as far as making changes to the roster this offseason goes, but as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained back in October, there doesn’t appear to be much spending room.

  • The Astros are one of the clubs “monitoring” free-agent right-hander Josh Lindblom’s market, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. The 32-year-old struggled in the majors before heading to Korea and thriving there over the past couple seasons. Now that he’s on the open market, MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason that the Astros would sign Lindblom, a spin rate darling. That’s something the Astros seem to value. Plus, with Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley currently unsigned, the Astros have openings in their starting staff.
  • Almost half the league has shown some level of interest in free-agent infielder Travis Shaw since the Brewers non-tendered him Monday, as he told MLB Network Radio. The 29-year-old has gotten bites from “probably already 13 or 14 teams,” he said. There has been “significant interest,” though nobody has made an offer to this point. Shaw has primarily been a third baseman thus far, but he indicated that he’s glad he broadened his horizons by lining up at other positions (mostly second) over the past couple years. The newfound flexibility’s nice, but Shaw’s offensive issues in 2019 – during which he hit an ugly .157/.281/.270 in 270 plate appearances – will limit his earning power in free agency.
  • Right-hander Jordan Lyles agreed to a surprising two-year, $16MM contract with the Rangers on Friday. The Twins were among those who inquired about Lyles before then, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Minnesota may have gotten more serious about Lyles had it not re-signed righty Michael Pineda to a two-year, $20MM accord on Thursday, Wolfson suggests. However, even with Pineda and Jake Odorizzi (who accepted the Twins’ qualifying offer) back in the fold, they still have a need for starting help. Pineda, Odorizzi and Jose Berrios are the only in-house shoo-ins to occupy rotation spots in 2020.

Sergio Romo Close To Deciding On Next Team

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10:17pm: The Athletics are one of the teams with interest in Romo, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. Romo could return to the Bay Area, where he spent the first several years of his career as a member of the Giants. He won three championships in San Francisco.

8:27pm: Veteran reliever Sergio Romo appears to be cruising towards his next deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter) says there’s momentum towards an agreement, with a decision anticipated during the Winter Meetings.

What’s not yet clear is where the 36-year-old hurler is headed. The California native has been all over the map in the past few campaigns, most recently thriving with the Twins late in 2019.

There are still three teams engaged on Romo, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). Notably, that trio of leading contenders for his services — all unknown, at present — does not include the Minnesota organization. The Twins have maintained interest, per Wolfson, but not (at least to this point) to the same “level” as the other clubs involved.

Twins To Re-Sign Michael Pineda

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The Twins have re-signed right-hander Michael Pineda to a two-year deal, Pierre Noujaim of FOX 9 Minneapolis reports (Twitter link).  The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Pineda will earn $20MM on the deal, which will become official after Pineda passes a physical.  Pineda is represented by ISE Baseball.

Pineda will exactly double the two-year, $10MM deal he originally signed with Minnesota in the 2017-18 season, a contract that was really a one-year pact given that Pineda had undergone Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2018.  This new contract also comes in the midst of some extenuating circumstances, as Pineda is still in the midst of a 60-game PED suspension and will miss the first 39 games of the 2020 season.  That 60-game absence was originally an 80-game suspension, reduced on appeal since Pineda (who turns 31 in January) was able to provide evidence that the hydrochlorothiazide found in his system wasn’t being used as a PED masking agent.

While this situation could have made some teams wary about Pineda’s 2019 performance, and perhaps paved the way for him to return the team that knew him best, there was ample interest in his services.  Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News reports that the Blue Jays, Giants, Rangers, Braves, and White Sox also looked at adding Pineda in free agency.  MLBTR ranked Pineda 17th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and his contract fell just shy of the $22MM we projected he would land on a two-year deal.

In the wake of his TJ surgery, Pineda delivered arguably the best season of his career in 2019, posting a 4.01 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 5.00 K/BB rate over 146 innings.  It wasn’t an entirely smooth year, since he had two minimal injured list stints (for a triceps strain and knee tendinitis), and Pineda also had one of the game’s least-impressive spin rates.

Still, a 2.7 fWAR season coming off Tommy John surgery is certainly sturdy, and the Twins can expect even more from the righty once he returns in May.  While multiple injuries and issues with the home run ball have dimmed the profile of a player who was considered one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Pineda looks like a very solid mid-rotation candidate in this next phase of his career.

Facing one of the more dire pitching situations of any contender heading into the offseason, the Twins have now brought back both Pineda and Jake Odorizzi, who accepted the club’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer.  Getting Odorizzi and Pineda back at reasonable prices before the Winter Meetings is already a nice result for Minnesota, who still have up to two more rotation spots to fill beyond ace Jose Berrios.  The next arm could come at a much higher price, as the Twins are making a push to sign Madison Bumgarner, and they also made Zack Wheeler an offer before Wheeler signed with the Phillies.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

AL Central Notes: Tsutsugo, Lindblom, Royals, Indians

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Past reports have already linked the Blue Jays and Marlins to Yoshitomo Tsutsugo’s market, and now MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that three AL Central teams are also in the mix.  The White Sox, Tigers, and Twins all have some interest in the Japanese slugger, who has hit 185 homers for Yokohama since the start of the 2014 season.  Tsutsugo’s left-handed power would fit in any of the three teams’ lineups, though his limited defensive capability as a first baseman or outfielder could see him mostly play first base if he wound up in Minnesota, since Nelson Cruz is locked into DH duties.  Chicago could deploy Tsutsugo along with Jose Abreu in the first base/DH mix or play Tsutsugo in the outfield on days when Yasmani Grandal is getting a DH or first base day, while Tsutsugo would simply step right into an everyday role for the hitting-starved Tigers.

Any team that signs Tsutsugo will have to pay his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, a release fee that will be determined by the size of Tsutsugo’s eventual MLB contract.  The 30-day posting window for Tsutsugo to find a contract in North America ends on December 19, so there is still lots of time for one of his five known suitors or perhaps other teams to strike a deal.

Here’s more from the AL Central….

  • Morosi reports on another potential Detroit target in another tweet, noting that the Tigers and Angels are two of the teams interested in Josh Lindblom.  The right-hander is looking to return to the majors on the heels of two outstanding seasons in South Korea’s KBO League, and some very impressive spin rate numbers on his four-seam fastball.  Morosi writes that Lindblom has already received multi-year offers from more than one team, which isn’t surprising given how Lindblom would be an inexpensive yet high-ceiling addition to a lot of pitching staffs (such as rebuilding teams like the Tigers or hopeful contenders like the Angels).
  • The Royals announced their 2020 coaching staff under new manager Mike Matheny, with a few new faces in the mix and some familiar faces returning in some different roles.  Pitching coach Cal Eldred and hitting coach Terry Bradshaw will remain in their positions, while Pedro Grifol moves to bench coach from his past quality control/catching coach job, and Vance Wilson goes from bullpen coach to third base coach.  Rusty Kuntz will become the Royals’ first base coach for the third time in his 12-year stint as a member of the K.C. organization, while Larry Carter will take over as bullpen coach after 22 years in various minor league roles for the club.  John Mabry joins the staff as a Major League coach, after working under Matheny as the Cardinals’ hitting coach when Matheny was the St. Louis manager.  Former coaches Dale Sveum and Mike Jirschele will remain with the Royals in as-yet-unassigned new roles.
  • The Indians’ homegrown pitching has been the backbone of the team’s success in recent years, and The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (subscription link) looks at how the organization has been able to turn the likes of Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and other relatively unheralded — none were drafted before the third round by the Tribe or other teams — arms into top-flight hurlers.  Ruben Niebla, formerly the minor league pitching coordinator and now the big league team’s assistant pitching coach, has been a key figure in the system of finding what works for each pitcher, getting the pitcher to buy into the strategy, and then tailoring that development through all levels of the pitcher’s trip up the organizational ladder.  “That communication is vitally important to us, that we make sure we have continuity and the same message as he goes through. There’s no confusion. It’s clear,” Niebla said.

Latest On Madison Bumgarner’s Market

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TODAY, 1:58pm: The Cardinals could also have interest in Bumgarner, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.

WEDNESDAY, 7:52pm: The Reds are indeed among the teams with ongoing interest in Bumgarner, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Cincinnati has been aggressive thus far and has also been linked to free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, further backing reports that they’re willing to sign players who rejected a qualifying offer.

5:35pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests otherwise regarding the White Sox, writing that they’ve been zeroed in on Wheeler and have yet to even enter into negotiations with Bumgarner’s camp.

2:45pm: Zack Wheeler is off the board on a reported five-year, $118MM agreement with the Phillies, and it sounds like a decision from fellow free agent Madison Bumgarner might not be far behind. Even before word of Wheeler’s agreement broke, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted that some within the industry also expect Bumgarner to sign before the Winter Meetings begin next week.

At this point, the Twins and White Sox are among the “heaviest” suitors for the longtime Giants lefty, tweets Andy Martino of SNY, who adds that the Yankees are involved “to some degree.” Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that even after the Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18MM deal earlier today, they’re still not completely out of the Bumgarner bidding. And ESPN’s Buster Olney somewhat speculatively links the Reds, who also pursued but missed out on Wheeler, to the Bumgarner market as well (Twitter link). Other clubs are surely involved as well.

It seems unlikely that the bidding for Bumgarner will escalate to the same heights as the Wheeler market, although USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted earlier that the Braves jumped on Hamels in part due to concerns that Bumgarner’s price could approach $100MM.

Regardless of where he lands, there’s little doubt that Bumgarner is among the best arms on the market this winter. He’s not the clear-cut ace that he was earlier in his career when he was busy establishing himself as a postseason legend, but the 30-year-old Bumgarner still posted a 3.90 ERA and a matching FIP through 207 2/3 innings this past season. His average fastball velocity (91.4 mph) and strikeout rate (8.8 K/9, 24.1 percent) are both down a bit from peak levels, but Bumgarner still displayed impeccable command (1.9 BB/9) this past season and topped 30 starts for the first time since his injuring his shoulder in 2017’s dirt-bike debacle.

Bumgarner has made 55 starts across the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.66 ERA (110 ERA+, 3.94 FIP) while averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, meaning he’ll require some draft and possibly international bonus forfeitures (with exact compensation dependent on which team ultimately signs him). At this point, there’s little indication that the incumbent Giants are a serious player for Bumgarner, but they’re in position to recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next year’s draft (as they did when Will Smith signed with the Braves).

Pitcher Notes: Hamels, Phils, Wheeler, Twins, Bundy, Lindblom

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The latest pitcher-relates news from around baseball…

  • Left-hander Cole Hamels said earlier this offseason he’d be open to a return to Philadelphia, where he thrived at the beginning of his career. Hamels wound up accepting the division-rival Braves’ one-year, $18MM offer on Wednesday, but the Phillies were among his suitors before then. They put forth a one-year proposal worth roughly half what Hamels got from the Braves, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Hamels turned down a return to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the starter-needy Phillies made a much bigger splash to improve their rotation Wednesday, as they agreed to sign ex-Met Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM pact.
  • The Twins were also among the most ardent teams in pursuit of Wheeler, according to La Velle E. Neal of the Star Tribune. They offered Wheeler a five-year, $100MM offer, but the Phillies upended them. Had Wheeler taken the Twins’ offer, it would have been the richest in franchise history. Now, even after Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, they’re still in clear need of starting help. Odorizzi and Jose Berrios are the only sure things for Minnesota’s 2020 rotation, meaning we probably haven’t seen the last of the team’s starting pursuits this winter. Indeed, the Twins seem to be aggressively going after free-agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner.
  • The Angels and Orioles swung a headline-grabbing trade Wednesday, when Los Angeles acquired righty Dylan Bundy from Baltimore. Even after picking up Bundy, the Angels remain “in the market for pitching,” said general manager Billy Eppler (via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). As for the non-contending Orioles, in parting with Bundy, they took “a big step toward our stated goals to accumulate and develop as much young talent as possible as the club rebuilds its roster and gets our talent level back to the level needed for consistent playoff contention,” per GM Mike Elias (via Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com).
  • Korea Baseball Organization right-hander Josh Lindblom officially became a free agent Wednesday, the Yonhap News Agency relays. Lindblom was terrific as a member of the KBO’s Doosan Bears from 2018-19, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained. Before that, he was unremarkable in the majors from 2011-17 with several teams. However, Lindblom’s KBO performance could overshadow his MLB history as he seeks a big league contract this offseason.

Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

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