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Twins Notes: Allen, Sano

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The Twins have decided to part ways with pitching coach Neil Allen, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune writes. While Paul Molitor will remain as the manager after inking a new deal, the organization is now on the market for a new hand to guide the pitching staff. Minnesota is sure to enter the offseason in search of ways to boost the productivity of its rotation after a season in which only two starters (Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios) turned in high-quality overall campaigns. While others showed signs at times — Kyle Gibson finished strong, for example — there’s clearly room to improve through both new acquisitions and internal development.

  • In other Twins news, the organization does not presently expect Miguel Sano to require surgery to address his shin injury, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Though there have been some prior indications to the contrary, a surgical option would be an “extreme” measure and isn’t on the table at this point, per the report. Berardino adds that young reliever J.T. Chargois is also not under consideration for a surgical approach despite missing virtually all of the season due to elbow problems. You’ll also find some player reactions to the coaching staff decisions at the link.

Twins Sign Paul Molitor To Three-Year Extension

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The Twins announced Monday that they have signed manager Paul Molitor to a three-year contract extension that will keep him with the team through the 2020 season. Molitor’s new deal is worth approximately $4MM, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter). He and the Twins are still discussing whether there will be changes to his coaching staff, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link).

Paul Molitor | Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

While a new deal for Molitor was expected by many, it wasn’t quite a given. Molitor was initially hired as the successor to longtime manager Ron Gardenhire, but that hire was made by former general manager Terry Ryan, who was fired from his post last year. Some speculated that Falvey and general manager Thad Levine may want to bring in their own candidate to take over the dugout, but Molitor will stay in the fold.

While the 2016 season was an unmitigated disaster, the Twins have surprised in two of Molitor’s three seasons at the helm. The 2015 club won 83 games — a 13-game improvement over the preceding season — and was in contention for an AL Wild Card spot until the very last weekend of the regular season. Last year’s 103-loss campaign now looks to be largely an aberration, as Molitor’s Twins posted 85 wins and secured the second AL Wild Card spot this year before falling 8-4 against the Yankees. That surprising performance has positioned Molitor as one of the speculative front-runners for American League Manager of the Year honors.

Molitor, of course, enjoyed a 21-year playing career and is among the most decorated offensive players in Major League history. The seven-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger winner finished his career with a .306/.369/.448 batting line, and his 3,319 career hits rank 10th all-time in MLB history. Molitor is widely praised by his former teammates and current players for his baseball intelligence, and while he may not be as sabermetrically inclined as some other skippers around the game, his arrival in Minnesota did prompt a much more aggressive implementation of defensive shifting.

Overall, he’s managed the Twins to a 227-259 record in his three-year tenure, though the future looks considerably brighter in Minnesota following explosive second halves from young talents such as Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario. Those three will join a hopefully healthier Miguel Sano, outfielder Max Kepler and right-hander Jose Berrios in forming a long-term core that the Twins hope can lead to additional postseason appearances in the very near future.

Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press first reported (via Twitter) that Molitor would return to manage the Twins under a new contract. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reported Sunday (Twitter link) that the two sides were closing in on a deal. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune confirmed the agreement Monday. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: How Will The Twins Address Their Rotation Issues?

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After quickly shifting from buyers to sellers at the 2017 trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins’ offense went on an absolute tear during the second half, thanks in part to blazing hot streaks from Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Brian Dozier. The lineup’s offensive storm resulted in a whopping 412 runs after the All-Star break, surpassing even the Indians for most in the American League. They surged up the standings to claim the AL’s second wild card spot, but fell to the New York Yankees in the one-game playoff after starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios gave up a combined seven runs across five innings.

The heartbreaking loss alluded to an overarching theme of the Twins’ 2017 season: the woes of subpar performances from starting pitchers. While Santana and Berrios were actually the team’s most respectable performers during the season, the rotation performed miserably on the whole. Sixteen different pitchers started games for Minnesota. Of those sixteen, only one (Santana) qualified for the ERA title. Only five finished with an ERA below 5.00. Minnesota starters as a group finished in the bottom ten in all of baseball in innings pitched (24th), fWAR (22nd), strikeouts (26th), xFIP (27th), least hard contact allowed (21st), and fewest home runs allowed (23rd).

Without dramatic improvements to the rotation, the Twins have little hope of dethroning the rival Indians as AL Central Champions. However, if they can add pitching reinforcements to an offense that’s intimidating from top to bottom, it’s easy to see a path for them to reach the playoffs again. Adding to their fortunes is a weak division wherein the White Sox and Tigers are in the midst of full teardowns, with the Royals likely to follow suit this offseason.

The problem has the potential to solve itself. Santana and Berrios will both return to their roles in 2018, with Kyle Gibson likely to slot in behind them after performing very well in the second half this past season. LHP Stephen Gonsalves and RHP Fernando Romero both rank as top 100 overall prospects and could potentially see major league action next season. And Adalberto Mejia is at the very least a reasonable back-end starter. If Berrios is able to take another step forward, and one of Gonsalves or Romero emerges as a top-of-the-rotation type, the Twins would certainly be no worse off on paper than most contenders.

But even the highest-rated prospects are never sure bets, and Santana, Berrios and Gibson all have at least a few question marks hovering over them. Meanwhile the free agent market for pitchers is full of high-upside starters who carry tremendous risk. Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta represent the top options on the market, while Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto can both opt out of their current contracts. Most of these pitchers would likely cost more than the Twins can afford to pay, and all carry significant injury risk. Japanese phenom Shohei Otani would be an incredibly exciting target, but the competition for his services will certainly be fierce. It’s difficult to imagine what the Twins could offer him that other teams cannot. So while it’s certainly possible the Twins could land a high-end starter, a foray into the free agent pool would likely end with the Twins having to settle for an even riskier tier of starters that includes Andrew Cashner, Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Jason Vargas and a somewhat resurgent Doug Fister.

To say that the trade market for starting pitchers this offseason will be competitive would be an understatement. The top starters in baseball are heavily concentrated on teams with plans to contend next season. Michael Fulmer and Gerrit Cole are examples of solid pitchers who could be made available, but due to heavy demand, the Twins would probably have to fork over at least one of top 30 overall prospects Royce Lewins and Nick Gordon. Both Fulmer and Cole come with injury concerns.

While many teams are in need of rotation help, the Twins’ situation is dire. If the offense can repeat anything close to their late 2017 production, Minnesota will be in the thick of contention all next season. But they absolutely must get significant improvements within the starting five.

How do you think the Twins will address their rotation issues? Vote in the poll and comment below with your ideas.

(Poll link for app users)

Twins Notes: Sano, Vargas

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  • It wouldn’t be a surprise if Miguel Sano requires surgery this offseason, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link) opines, given that the Twins third baseman is “in a lot more pain than many of us realized.”  Sano was sidelined on August 19 due to a stress reaction in his left shin, and while he returned for the final three games of the regular season, he didn’t make the roster for Minnesota’s wild card loss to the Yankees.
  • Kennys Vargas is interested in the idea of playing in Japan or Korea, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Twins could be more open to trading the first baseman overseas given their glut of first base/DH options.  The Twins rejected overtures about Vargas from NPB and the KBO two offseasons ago.

How They Were Acquired: Minnesota Twins Wild Card Roster

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The Twins became the first team in MLB history to go from a 100-loss season to a playoff berth in 2017, and while that’s skewed somewhat by the fact that the postseason field of 10 teams is relatively new, it’s nonetheless an impressive feat. Newly minted chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the Twins’ front office deserve credit for both the offseason additions they made last winter and for the restraint they showed in not blowing up a young roster that wholly underperformed reasonable expectations in 2016.

Former general managers Terry Ryan and Bill Smith and their lieutenants (including assistant GM Rob Antony, who still holds that title the new-look front office) also deserve credit, as a number of the players in question were acquired under their watch.

Here’s a look at how the Twins acquired the 25 players that will comprise their roster in tonight’s Wild Card playoff at Yankee Stadium…

[Related: Minnesota Twins Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]

  • ACQUIRED VIA RULE 5 DRAFT (1)

Notably, the Twins announced today that slugger Miguel Sano — a major factor in their postseason berth this season — will not be a part of the Wild Card roster due to ongoing discomfort in a stress reaction he suffered when fouling a ball into his shin in late August. He’d been activated for the final three games of the season, lending some optimism that he could potentially play in the divisional series should the team advance, but he was apparently too limited to carry on the roster for this all-hands-on-deck game.

Twins Notes: Sano, Colon, Perkins

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A players-only meeting in the aftermath of the trade deadline may have been the turning point in the Twins’ season, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes.  A July slump led the club’s front office to deal Brandon Kintzler and Jaime Garcia at the deadline, leaving the clubhouse feeling “angry,” in the words of Byron Buxton.  The meeting, led by Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier, lasted only 10-15 minutes and “I think the biggest thing in the meeting was to direct that anger or whatever feeling in a positive way,” Mauer said.  The message certainly seemed to sink in, as the Twins turned things around in a big way and are now headed to the AL Wild Card game.

Here’s more from Target Field…

  • Miguel Sano is “still having discomfort” in his ailing left shin, manager Paul Molitor told Berardino and other reporters today.  The slugger felt some soreness while lightly running out a grounder in the fifth inning today and didn’t return to the game.  It is still very much up in the air as to whether or not Sano will be activated for the Wild Card game, as GM Thad Levine said that the club may use every minute until the 9am CT deadline on Tuesday to finalize their roster for the game against the Yankees.  Sano has gone 1-for-8 since returning from the DL, and as Berardino notes, “has yet to hit a ball in the air.”
  • To honor a promise to his late mother, Bartolo Colon intends to pitch in 2018, the right-hander told reporters, including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and Michael Clair.  “That’s the goal.  That’s what I promised my old lady and that’s what I want to do,” Colon said.  Colon earned the 240th victory of his 20-year career today, and he received a standing ovation from Twins fans when he was removed from the game in the seventh inning just in case this is the end of the road for the 44-year-old.  After several effective years that belied his age, Colon finally showed signs of declining this season, posting a 6.48 ERA over 143 innings with the Twins and Braves.
  • Glen Perkins was emotional after what may have been his final big league game on Saturday, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes that Perkins has said that he’d consider retiring if he can’t return to the Twins next season.  The St. Paul-born Perkins has spent his entire career with his hometown team, and only just returned to the mound in August after missing over 16 months due to shoulder surgery.  The Twins will surely buy Perkins out for $700K rather than exercise their $6.5MM club option on his services for 2018, though there’s a chance he could return on a minor league contract.

Paul Molitor Unsure Of 2018 Status

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  • The Twins have surprised this year en route to a playoff berth, but Paul Molitor still doesn’t know if he’ll be the team’s manager in 2018, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Molitor is unsigned past this season, and his fate will rest with the decision-making duo of chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine. Those two were not at the helm when the Twins hired Molitor prior to the 2015 season. That was ex-GM Terry Ryan, who’s now an employee of a Philadelphia team that happens to be looking for a manager, as Berardino notes.

Who Will Win The World Series?

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Aside from Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton’s pursuit of 60 home runs, the final day of Major League Baseball’s regular season won’t bring much drama. Colorado on Saturday became the last team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot and will be one of 10 clubs vying for World Series glory over the next month-plus. Here’s a rundown of the participants by league and seeding:

National League

1.) Los Angeles Dodgers (record: 103-58; most recent title: 1988): The Dodgers are loaded with stars and depth, which explains how they easily exceeded the 100-win mark despite enduring a 1-15 stretch from Aug. 26 through Sept. 11. They recovered from that nightmarish 16-game showing over the season’s final couple weeks and once again look formidable entering the postseason. While the Dodgers have scored the second-fewest runs of this year’s playoff teams, they’ve still managed to pace all NL clubs in position player fWAR. Plus, with a Clayton Kershaw-fronted rotation and a Kenley Jansen-led bullpen, their staff is atop the NL in pitching fWAR.

2.) Washington Nationals (record: 97-64; most recent title: never): The Nationals cruised to an NL East crown this year despite losing center fielder Adam Eaton in April and having to go without arguably their best player, right fielder Bryce Harper, from mid-August until late September. Harper suffered a knee injury that looked like a season-ender when it happened, and while the missed time derailed his MVP chances, he’s back to lead a lineup that also includes other standouts in Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman. On the pitching side, it seems ace and Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer avoided a serious hamstring injury during his start on Saturday. If that’s the case, Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez could be the premier starting trio in the playoffs. They’ll hand off to a bullpen that has featured offered plenty of shaky performances in 2017, though midseason additions Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have helped stabilize the Nationals’ relief corps.

3.) Chicago Cubs (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2016): At this time a year ago, Chicago was putting the finishing touches on a 103-win regular season and preparing to enter the playoffs as the odds-on favorite. Ultimately, the Cubs lived up to the billing last fall and broke a 108-year title drought in an unforgettable World Series against the Indians. They haven’t been as sharp this year, owing in part to worse performances from their pitching and defense, but are still laden with talent. There’s no shortage of quality position players on hand, including reigning MVP Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, but the Cubs will need more from their staff – particularly Jake Arrieta, who’s dealing with a hamstring issue right now, and Jon Lester.

4.) Arizona Diamondbacks (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2001): One of this year’s surprise teams, the Diamondbacks rode an underrated starting staff and a top 10 offense (by runs scored) to a playoff berth. Starters Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin and Taijuan Walker have all turned in good to great seasons, which is why the D-backs’ starters lead the NL in fWAR. They also have a pair of offensive superstars in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though he had a horrid September that likely ruined his MVP chances, and outfielder J.D. Martinez. The latter has been a revelation since coming over from the Tigers in a July trade, having smashed 29 home runs in 61 games and batted .304/.369/.746 in 255 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a potential Achilles’ heel, no playoff entrant has a worse wRC+ (84) against left-handed pitchers than Arizona. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a team that will face the Dodgers, whose southpaws include Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson, if it wins the NL wild-card game.

5.) Colorado Rockies (record: 87-74; most recent title: never): Primarily on account of NL MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies are near the top of the league in runs scored, which is what you’d expect from a team that plays half its games at Coors Field. The Rockies managed to break a seven-year playoff skid this season largely because of an improved pitching staff that sits eighth in the majors in fWAR. Still, despite the presence of Jon Gray, their rotation doesn’t look particularly imposing relative to other playoff teams’ staffs. They do, however, feature a few highly capable relievers in Greg Holland, Chris Rusin, Pat Neshek and Jake McGee.

(Poll link for app users)

 

American League

1.) Cleveland Indians (record: 101-60; most recent title: 1948): At 48-45, the reigning AL champions were a mere three games above .500 on July 18. Since then, they’ve run roughshod over the rest of the league en route to a 53-15 mark, including a historic 22-game winning streak from Aug. 22 to Sept. 14. The Indians lost a meaningless game to the White Sox on Saturday, but that was just their fourth defeat in the past 35 contests. Needless to say, they’re heading into the playoffs on a roll. As you’d expect, Cleveland’s roster is chock-full of excellence. MVP hopeful Jose Ramirez and all-world shortstop Francisco Lindor are at the helm of a talent-rich offense, one that supports what could be an all-time great pitching staff from top to bottom. Ace/Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, righty Carlos Carrasco and super reliever Andrew Miller, one of the faces of last year’s postseason, deservedly grab the most headlines, but good luck finding any weak links among the other pitchers the Tribe will use in the playoffs.

2.) Houston Astros (record: 100-61; most recent title: never): With a league-high 892 runs and a 121 wRC+, it’s a wonder how anyone gets the Astros out. Much of the damage has come from AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the latter of whom missed significant time earlier this season, but ancillary pieces such as Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel have all been no worse than very good at the plate. And then there’s the one-two pitching punch of recently acquired ace Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, not to mention a deep starting staff/bullpen behind them. If there’s one big concern here, it’s that Houston may be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

3.) Boston Red Sox (record: 93-68; most recent title: 2013): This year’s Red Sox have deviated from past Boston teams that used the likes of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez to pound opponents into submission. In fact, this is the first playoff-bound Red Sox club since 1995 to qualify for the postseason without scoring at least 800 runs. Nevertheless, they have several especially well-rounded position players (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi and the banged-up Dustin Pedroia, to name a few) who have done enough in the field to make Boston an elite defensive outfit. That defense supports the AL’s foremost southpaw, Chris Sale, and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. Boston is entering the playoffs with some concerns in its rotation, though, including the recent struggles of Sale and the yearlong issues 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has had. Fortunately for the Sox, starter Drew Pomeranz quelled some late-season concerns with an encouraging start against the Astros on Saturday.

4.) New York Yankees (record: 90-71; most recent title: 2009): Baby Bombers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez have more than lived up to the hype this season, combining for 85 home runs and 11.7 fWAR in 1,203 PAs. Fifty-one of those long balls have come from Judge, an OPS machine and an AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in whose 8.2 fWAR leads the majors. The rest of the Yankees’ offense isn’t exactly subpar, either, as a laundry list of their other hitters have notched above-average seasons at the plate. And New York’s pitching staff could be built for October, with an incredibly strong bullpen and a rotation that features perhaps the AL’s third-best starter, Luis Severino. One of the major questions regarding the Yankees is which versions of Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka will show up in the postseason – if the team gets by the wild-card game, that is. Gray allowed between four and six earned runs in three of five September starts, while Tanaka was a mixed bag throughout the regular season. He did conclude the slate with a seven-inning, 15-K shutout against the Blue Jays on Friday, though.

5.) Minnesota Twins (record: 84-77; most recent title: 1991): In terms of teams, there probably hasn’t been a better story during the regular season than the Twins, who were 103-game losers and owners of the majors’ worst record a year ago. Adding to the improbability of their Cinderella run to the playoffs, the Twins were sellers at this year’s trade deadline, when they dealt starter Jaime Garcia to their wild-card opponent, the Yankees, and Kintzler to the Nationals. However, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer & Co. were undeterred in the face of those deals and the late-summer absence of slugging third baseman Miguel Sano, who missed over a month with a left shin injury but just returned this week. Given its relatively underwhelming pitching staff, Minnesota is obviously a long shot to claim its first World Series in 26 years. For now, the Twins are focused on the Yankees, who have historically owned Minnesota in the playoffs. But New York’s past triumphs came during series. The wild-card round is a one-off, increasing the odds of an upset. The Twins’ No. 1 starter, Ervin Santana, allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of 33 starts during the regular season. If he’s that stingy against the Yankees on Tuesday – an admittedly tall order – an upset could be in the offing.

(Poll link for app users)

 

And now for the most important question (poll link for app users)…

Twins Activate Miguel Sano From Disabled List

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The Twins have activated third baseman Miguel Sano from the 10-day disabled list, as per a team announcement.  The slugger last played on August 19, a day after fouling a ball off his left shin and causing a stress reaction.

What was initially thought to be some minor soreness led to a pretty lengthy DL stint for Sano, and even some worry that he wouldn’t be able to return this season.  However, Sano reportedly made some progress in recent days at swinging the bat, looking good enough that the Twins feel comfortable in activating him in time for their final regular-season series, and of course their upcoming AL wild card game appearance.  Of course, there isn’t yet any guarantee about how much action Sano will see, whether he returns to the everyday lineup or is used as a pinch-hitting threat.

The Twins’ run to a wild card after a 103-loss season in 2016 is amazing enough, though it’s even more surprising that Minnesota was able to hold steady through September even without its top hitter.  Sano has a .267/.356/.514 slash line and 28 homers over 475 PA, with a 126 wRC+ that leads all Twins hitters.

Given both the nature of Sano’s injury and the fact that he isn’t a speedy runner even at the best of times, one would think the Twins will be looking to use Sano as a designated hitter the rest of the way.  Eduardo Escobar has filled in at third base in Sano’s absence and delivered some unexpected power, hitting .257/.299/.584 with eight homers over 107 September plate appearances.

Miguel Sano Making Progress

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  • On Wednesday, the Twins became the final American League team to clinch a playoff spot. Here’s more good news for Minnesota: Third baseman Miguel Sano, out since Aug. 19 with a stress reaction to his left shin, is making progress in his recovery. The slugger took 60 swings Wednesday and could do the same Thursday, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey noting that Sano’s “in a better spot now,” Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. While Sano probably won’t be active for the Twins’ wild-card game against either the Yankees or Red Sox, he could be a factor if the club advances to the ALDS, per Bollinger. The Twins have gone 21-16 since Sano’s injury, even though his absence has deprived them of a hitter who recorded a terrific .267/.356/.514 line with 28 home runs in 475 trips to the plate.
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