Twins, Christian Vazquez Agree To Three-Year Deal
The Twins have jumped into a fast-moving catching market, reportedly agreeing to terms with Christian Vázquez on a three-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, will guarantee him $30MM. Vázquez is represented by MDR Sports Management.
A longtime member of the Red Sox, Vázquez now changes uniforms for the second time in five months. Boston dealt him to the Astros at this past summer’s trade deadline, bringing back prospects Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for the final half-season before he hit free agency. That left Vázquez in an unfamiliar role splitting time with Martín Maldonado, but it positioned him to secure his second World Series title.
Vázquez, 32, is one of the better all-around catchers in the game. A light-hitting defensive specialist for his first few seasons, the Puerto Rico native has taken a step forward with the bat over the past four years. He hit .276/.320/.477 in 521 plate appearances in 2019, popping a career-best 23 home runs. Vázquez hasn’t replicated that kind of power outside a season with perhaps the liveliest ball the league has ever used, never reaching double digit longballs in another season. Still, he’s been an adequate hitter in two of the past three years. Vázquez stumbled to a .258/.308/.352 mark in 2021, but he was an above-average hitter during the abbreviated 2020 campaign and roughly league average this past season.
Going back to the start of 2019, he owns a .271/.318/.416 line in slightly more than 1600 plate appearances. That’s five percentage points below league average overall, by measure of wRC+, but it’s above par for a catcher. Backstops have a cumulative .232/.304/.390 mark over that stretch. Vázquez doesn’t draw many walks and, 2019 aside, rarely hits for power. His high-contact approach differentiates him from most of his positional peers, as he owns the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage among catchers (minimum 750 plate appearances) since the start of 2019.
The 2022 season was generally par for the course. Among 29 catchers with 300+ trips to the dish, he had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) and fourth-best rate of contact per swing (85.1%). Overall, Vázquez posted a .274/.315/.399 line in 119 games. He carried an impressive .282/.327/.432 mark with the Red Sox before the trade but stumbled to a .250/.278/.308 showing in 35 regular season games as an Astro. Vázquez also did very little offensively in his six-game playoff showing.
The Twins clearly aren’t deterred by that slow finish to the year. That came in an unfamiliar role dividing his reps with Maldonado, and Minnesota presumably anticipates he’ll more closely approximate his production from his time in Boston moving forward. Offense is only part of the story and Vázquez has an excellent reputation with the glove.
For his career, Vázquez has nabbed just under 34% of attempted basestealers. He had a more modest 27.1% mark this year, but that’s still narrowly above the roughly 25% league average. Statcast also credits him with a better than average arm, placing him 20th among 73 catchers with 10+ throws in pop time (average time to throw to second base). Vázquez consistently draws strong grades from public pitch framing metrics. Pair strong receiving with his ability to control the running game, he’s been rated as an above-average catcher by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in all but one season of his career. DRS pegged him 11 runs above par in 2022 and has rated him as 51 runs above average over his eight years in the majors.
That wealth of experience calling games certainly added to Vázquez’s appeal to the Minnesota front office. The Twins have young backstop Ryan Jeffers on hand already. The 25-year-old will continue to see a fair amount of run at Target Field, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have each spoken of a desire to add another starting-caliber catcher to pair with Jeffers. They’ve done just that, leaving manager Rocco Baldelli to decide how to divvy up playing time.
Jeffers, a right-handed hitter, has been far better against lefty pitching (.263/.344/.450) than same-handed opponents (.185/.256/.361) through his first couple MLB campaigns. Vázquez also hits right-handed and is better against southpaws, but his career splits aren’t so drastic. He has a .257/.309/.422 line against lefty arms and a .263/.310/.372 mark against right-handers. Falvey has already suggested the Twins don’t plan to relegate Jeffers solely to the small side of a platoon, but the presence of a more balanced hitter in Vázquez gives Baldelli some more flexibility in matching up against opposing pitchers.
It’s the first meaningful dip into free agency for Minnesota this offseason. Vázquez’s contract lands right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of $27MM over three years. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would bring Minnesota’s 2023 payroll around $107MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. There’s a fair amount of room before getting to this past season’s approximate $134MM mark, and the Twins surely aren’t finished. Addressing shortstop — where the organization awaits Carlos Correa’s decision — is the big question, but the Twins also could stand to upgrade both areas of the pitching staff (especially the bullpen) and potentially shake up their outfield.
Vázquez’s signing follows last week’s five-year agreement between the Cardinals and Willson Contreras and this afternoon’s blockbuster that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. As a result, the catching market is drying up quickly. The Blue Jays can still dangle one of their three backstops, with Danny Jansen seemingly the most likely to move. Free agency is without many obvious solutions at this point, with glove-first players like Austin Hedges, Tucker Barnhart, Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino (the latter two of whom saw their 2022 seasons cut short by surgery) among the options.
Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Vázquez was making progress on a deal with an unknown team. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the backstop was in agreement with the Twins. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported it was a three-year contract, while Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily was first to report the $30MM guarantee.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks
The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.
The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.
Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.
As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.
A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.
As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.
Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.
If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.
It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.
Max Kepler Has Drawn Trade Interest
Twins outfielder Max Kepler has drawn trade interest, according to Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The report doesn’t list any specific teams that are interested in Kepler, nor does it say that the Twins are actively shopping him. But the fact that Kepler’s name has come up in conversations is noteworthy nonetheless.
Kepler, 30 in February, has spent his entire career in the Twins organization thus far, having been signed by them back in 2009 at the age of 16. He made it to the majors by 2015 and proved to be a serviceable player in his first few seasons. His bat was slightly subpar at that time, as he was hitting .233/.313/.417 at the end of the 2018 season, which included 1,633 plate appearances. That production was 5% below league average, as indicated by his 95 wRC+. However, he was still able to produce value with his speed and defense, as all of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average looked fondly upon his work on the grass.
Going into 2019, with Kepler having just turned 26, the Twins took a gamble on him by signing him to a five-year, $35MM extension. There was certainly risk involved since Kepler had yet to show above-average capabilities at the plate, but he came with a solid floor from the baserunning and glovework. After one year of that deal, he made the Twins look like geniuses. He hit 36 home runs and produced an overall slash line of .252/.336/.519 for a wRC+ of 122. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 3.8 wins above replacement on the year.
He hasn’t been able to maintain that level of production, however. He slipped to a wRC+ of 109 in 2020 and then 97 and 95 in the two seasons after that. Those aren’t disastrous numbers and he’s still strong in other areas. Despite below-average work with the bat in each of the past two seasons, he still produced 2.3 fWAR in 2021 and 2.0 this year.
Kepler is now entering the final guaranteed season of that aforementioned extension, where he will make a salary of $8.5MM with a $10MM club option for 2024 that has a $1MM buyout. That level of pay is more than reasonable for a solid outfielder, though it’s unlikely to give him tremendous trade value. As mentioned by Gleeman and Hayes, though Kepler is receiving interest, it’s not enough for him “to be the centerpiece of a deal bringing back a prominent player.”
There are some parallels to Hunter Renfroe, another good-but-not-elite corner outfielder. Over the past couple of seasons, Renfroe has produced 4.5 fWAR, right in the same range as the 4.3 that Kepler produced. He’s going into his final season of arbitration eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $11.2MM salary. The Brewers recently traded him to the Angels for three young pitchers, none of whom were especially highly rated by prospect evaluators.
Kepler is arguably a more attractive target than Renfroe since the 2024 club option provides a bit of upside should he find that higher gear that he had in 2019, but he’s not likely to net a huge return. However, the Twins might entertain trade offers regardless because their outfield picture is somewhat crowded. Byron Buxton should have center field locked down as long as he’s healthy, while Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are also in the mix to varying degrees. Many of those players dealt with injuries in 2022 and aren’t guarantees to be healthy next year, but that’s still a lot of candidates for two corner outfield jobs and the designated hitter slot. Those players all still have years of cheap control remaining, as none of them have reached the three-year service mark so far. Kepler is more established than any of them but his higher salary and proximity to free agency make him a more logical trade candidate for Minnesota.
The Twins shouldn’t be tight for cash right now, though that could change. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at just $98MM at the moment. Last year, they opened the season at $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which leaves them plenty of wiggle room. However, they have apparently made multiple offers to Correa with varying lengths and salaries. It was one year ago that he and the team made a surprising connection on a three-year deal that saw him paid $35.1MM annually, but with the opt-out that he eventually triggered. If they were to reconnect on anything in that salary range, their payroll would suddenly be right back in line with last year’s spending. If money is suddenly tight, trading Kepler could be away of trimming a few bucks while simultaneously addressing other target areas such as the catching corps or the bullpen.
Though no specific teams have been connected to Kepler, it stands to reason that his market would largely overlap with other left-handed hitting outfielders like Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger. The Cubs already landed Bellinger and Nimmo is going back to the Mets, but some other teams that have been interested in that group include the Blue Jays, Giants, Astros and many others. Bellinger reportedly had 11 teams interested in his services at one point, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Any team that fails to line up on Benintendi or Conforto could theoretically look to Kepler as a backup plan, though they could also call the Diamondbacks, who are likely to deal from their own outfield surplus.
Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dansby Swanson
The Twins recently chatted with Dansby Swanson via video conference, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. They’re one of a handful of teams in discussion with the longtime Brave, who’s one of the three top shortstops remaining in free agency.
Minnesota is one of a handful of teams that has been involved in the market. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports the Cubs, Cardinals and Red Sox have joined the Twins in showing significant interest this offseason (Twitter link). The incumbent Braves have also publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson.
There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty in Swanson’s market, as he’s not the primary target of either Minnesota or Boston. The Twins continue to prioritize Carlos Correa, although there’s also a chance they’re outbid by a bigger spender. The Dodgers are reportedly uninterested in Correa, but the Giants loom as a major threat after missing out on Aaron Judge. San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity after Judge declined their offer in the $360MM range, and Correa has been reported as their favorite of the top-tier shortstops available. The Twins have been linked to both Bogaerts and now Swanson as potential fallback options in the event they lose the bidding for Correa.
Swanson’s surely a secondary option for the Red Sox as well. Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has called Bogaerts their top priority on a number of occasions, and reports this morning suggested there was growing momentum in talks between the Sox and their longtime shortstop. So long as no deal is in place, the Red Sox are a viable fit for Swanson. If they do retain Bogaerts, he’d pair with Trevor Story in the middle infield and almost certainly rule out a Swanson pickup.
It looks unlikely the Cardinals will remain in the top of the shortstop market moving forward. St. Louis agreed to terms with top free agent backstop Willson Contreras this morning. That obviously doesn’t present a positional logjam for Swanson, but it adds a reported five-year, $87.5MM contract to the books. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested earlier this week the Cards were unlikely to pursue the top shortstops unless they acquired their catcher more affordably via trade. A significant free agent deal for Contreras seems likely to leave the Cards to rely on Tommy Edman and some combination of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman up the middle.
The Cubs are a stronger fit for Swanson. They’re not attempting to retain an in-house free agent shortstop as Minnesota and Boston are. Chicago has Nico Hoerner as a franchise building block, but he’s already expressed a willingness to kick over to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. The Cubs have already met with each of Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson and could make sense for any of that trio. Yet with the strong interest Correa and Bogaerts are seemingly drawing from other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this afternoon the Cubs view Swanson as a more realistic target.
Swanson’s going to command a significant deal in his own right, of course. He won the NL Gold Glove award at shortstop in 2022, and he’s coming off arguably the best offensive season of his career. The 28-year-old (29 in February) hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs while suiting up in all 162 games. He made the no-brainer decision to decline a qualifying offer, meaning any signing team would have to forfeit a draft choice to bring him in. MLBTR predicted Swanson to land a seven-year, $154MM deal at the opening of the offseason.
Twins Have Made Offer To Christian Vazquez
The Twins have made a formal offer to free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link).
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that his club hoped to bring in a catcher to split time with 25-year-old Ryan Jeffers — ideally one who can provide some offense against right-handed pitching, given the righty-swinging Jeffers’ stout .263/.344/.450 career batting line against lefties (which includes a .306/.377/.532 slash in 2022). The market is quite thin on lefty-hitting catchers, however, and the Twins aren’t necessarily interested in a strict platoon anyhow. Both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have spoken of a more even distribution of playing time between their two primary catchers next season, whoever the new addition might be.
Vazquez, 32, would give the Twins a strong defensive option who’s elevated his offensive profile in recent seasons as well. The longtime Red Sox backstop won a World Series ring following a summer trade to the Astros this season and hits free agency having batted .271/.318/.416 over the past four seasons combined. He’s thwarted 34% of stolen-base attempts against him in his career to date, been credited with a hefty 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons, and has drawn plus framing marks from publicly available metrics via Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
Now that Willson Contreras is off the board on a five-year deal with the Cardinals, Vazquez stands out as the top catcher on the free-agent market. (The Twins, for what it’s worth, did not pursue Contreras, according to Wolfson.) The trade market offers a handful of viable alternatives, headlined by Oakland’s Sean Murphy and Toronto’s Danny Jansen, though there’s been at least some mention of the Braves giving consideration to trading from their own stockpile of catching talent. (In that scenario, backup Manny Pina would be the likeliest to go.)
While Contreras removed the top name from the free-agent market for catchers, he also removed a viable landing spot for Vazquez, who’d been linked to the Cardinals in recent rumors. The Twins will still have competition, as Vazquez is said to be of interest to the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres and Giants — and other clubs are surely in play. Both Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic have previously suggested that Vazquez could command at least a three-year contract in free agency. The Twins have a projected payroll around $98MM, which sits well shy of last year’s Opening Day mark of $135MM.
Pirates Win #1 Overall Pick In Draft Lottery
The inaugural MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this evening. The Pirates were awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Nationals and Tigers. Here is the first round:
- Pirates
- Nationals
- Tigers
- Rangers
- Twins
- A’s
- Reds
- Royals
- Rockies
- Marlins
- Angels
- Diamondbacks
- Cubs
- Red Sox
- White Sox
- Giants
- Orioles
- Brewers
- Rays
- Blue Jays
- Cardinals
- Mets
- Mariners
- Guardians
- Braves
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Yankees
- Phillies
- Astros
In previous years, the draft order was fixed in inverse order of the regular season standings. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection. All 18 non-playoff teams were technically in the running for any of the top six picks, albeit with increasingly diminished odds for the clubs with better records. The 12 playoff teams were ordered depending on their postseason finishes, with a team’s revenue sharing status separating teams that were eliminated in the same round.
This year, the Nationals, A’s and Pirates all had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each club had a 16.5% probability. The Reds (13.25%) and Royals (10%) rounded out the top five as the only other teams with a 10% chance or better of securing the top pick. Other than Pittsburgh, the Twins were the biggest beneficiary of the new system, drawing into the top five despite having the 13th-worst record. The Royals fell outside the top ten despite finishing fifth from the bottom in the standings, while Oakland falls from second-worst to sixth.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.
While the draft order is official, there’s obviously plenty of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its preliminary top 100 draft prospects in October, slotting LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There’ll be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit kicks back off next spring.
Padres, D-Backs, Guardians Among Teams Interested In Christian Vazquez
8:08pm: The Diamondbacks and Giants are also in the mix for Vázquez, Abraham reports (on Twitter). The Boston Globe writer also suggests he’s likely to find at least three years and floats the possibility of a four-year pact materializing.
4:07pm: Christian Vázquez is the second-best catcher available in free agency this offseason, the top option for teams not willing to meet a much loftier asking price and surrender a draft choice for Willson Contreras. It’s little surprise the two-time World Series winner is generating a fair bit of attention from clubs, with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reporting the Padres, Guardians and Twins are all in the mix. Rosenthal also lists the Cubs and Cardinals — each of whom has been previously linked to the veteran backstop — and the incumbent Astros as teams in the bidding.
None of the new suitors is all that surprising, as they could each stand to upgrade behind the dish. That’s arguably not as pressing a concern for San Diego as it may be for some other teams, as the Friars do have Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as a viable catching tandem. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.
Nola, 33 this month, has spent two-plus seasons in Southern California. He looked like a late-blooming breakout player with the Mariners in 2019-20, leading San Diego to acquire him at the 2020 deadline in a now-regrettable swap that landed Ty France, Taylor Trammell and Andrés Muñoz in Seattle. Nola’s offensive production has dropped off since the trade, and he owns a .254/.327/.348 line in 665 plate appearances as a Padre. That’s fine production for a catcher but it’s not overwhelming, with Vázquez coming off a superior .274/.315/.399 showing. Campusano is a longtime top prospect with a strong Triple-A track record, but he has all of 28 MLB games under his belt.
Pursuing Vázquez could also be a way for the Friars to more indirectly upgrade their roster, as signing a catcher would free them up to market Nola or Campusano in trade talks. The 24-year-old Campusano still has six seasons of remaining club control and would have a fair bit of value on the trade market, able to appeal to win-now clubs and teams with further off contention windows alike. Nola has three seasons of arbitration-eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary next season. He’s not as appealing as Campusano but could still attract some attention if the Friars made him available.
The Guardians, meanwhile, are certain to add a catcher this offseason. Austin Hedges hit free agency, leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians have been one of the more frequently mentioned suitors for A’s backstop Sean Murphy, who seems highly likely to be dealt. Vázquez isn’t that caliber of player, but he wouldn’t force the team to surrender any young talent to add him. A highly-regarded game-caller with consistently strong defensive metrics and a plus arm, Vázquez would be a sensible target for a Cleveland team that has prioritized catcher defense.
The Twins have made no secret of their desire to add another catcher to pair with 25-year-old Ryan Jeffers. Both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have spoken of the appeal of bringing in another catcher capable of starting 100-plus games to take some of the responsibility off Jeffers. They’re not so much trying to supplant their internal catcher as find a strong complement to him. Vázquez would surely qualify, although it’s unclear if the Twins are prepared to offer him as many at-bats as he’d like.
Late in the season, Vázquez suggested to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe he’d prioritize finding a primary job in free agency. A longtime #1 catcher in Boston, he took a bit of a backseat to Martín Maldonado during his final couple months in Houston, starting just 23 games in the season’s final two months.
That desire for playing time would seem to reduce the chances Vázquez ends up back in Houston. Maldonado is under contract for another season and beloved for his ability to work with the pitching staff. The Astros have been wary of usurping him as their top catcher, and Rosenthal suggests they’d pursue a Vázquez reunion as part of a broader playing time split with Maldonado. Houston has been strongly linked to Contreras a few times this winter, with the thought that the longtime Cub’s bat plays well enough he could see extended time at designated hitter or in left field in addition to his time behind the plate. That’s less appealing for a glove-first player like Vázquez, who’s a good hitter for a catcher but a below-average offensive threat compared to players at less demanding positions.
There should be more than enough interest for Vázquez to find a #1 job again if that’s indeed his priority. He also looks in position to land a solid payday, as Rosenthal writes he’s likely to find a three-year commitment. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted the MDR Sports Management client for a three-year, $27MM contract.
Twins Rumors: Correa, Arraez, Rotation, Catcher
The Twins are set for another in-person meeting with Scott Boras this week to discuss Carlos Correa, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News reports in his latest podcast (Correa/Twins talk beginning at 10:10). The Twins have already discussed various contract structures with Boras and Correa, reportedly putting forth multiple offers.
Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.
While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.
That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.
Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.
Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).
Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.
Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.
The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.
Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras‘ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.
As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.
Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.
However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.
Pitching Notes: Puk, Kluber, Pagan, Britton
When discussing the Athletics‘ 2023 rotation, general manager David Forst told reporters that reliever A.J. Puk will prepare for the season as a starter and enter spring training with a chance to earn a spot on Oakland’s staff, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Forst noted how Puk “got through a season healthy,” with the lefty only spending time on the COVID injured list during 2022.
Puk, a former first-round draft pick, threw 66 1/3 innings (62 appearances) during the 2022 season with a 3.12 ERA, a strong 27.1% strikeout rate, and an 8.2% walk rate. The 27-year-old had previously worked his way through Oakland’s minor league system as a starter but transitioned to a bullpen role in Triple-A and has yet to start a game at the major league level.
The As utilized a rotation comprised of Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian, Paul Blackburn, and Frankie Montas (before his trade to New York), but also received at least seven starts from Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, JP Sears, Daulton Jefferies, and Ken Waldichuk. Nevertheless, Oakland’s vast staff housed the fifth-highest ERA (4.69) and sixth-lowest strikeout rate (18.3%), while allowing the third-most home runs to opposing batters (129).
In other news:
- The Cubs have checked in with Corey Kluber as they search to add to their rotation, reports Sahdev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Sharma and Mooney add that Kluber is close friends with Cubs catcher Yan Gomes and is “more open-minded about Chicago” after spending the past few seasons on the East Coast. Kluber, who turns 37 years old in April, joined the Rays in 2022 on a one-year, $8MM contract laced with incentives that he maxed out, resulting in a total salary of $12MM. The two-time Cy Young winner pitched 164 innings (31 starts) with a 4.34 ERA, a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate, a tiny 3.1% walk rate, and a career-low 35.1% ground ball rate. However, Kluber labored as the season progressed, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in the first half compared to a 5.14 ERA after the All-Star break. Nevertheless, he was able to complete his first full season since 2018. Kluber made one appearance during Tampa Bay’s postseason push, throwing 1 2/3 innings of relief and giving up a solo shot in a Rays’ Wild Card loss.
- Despite a shaky first season with the Twins, Emilio Pagan reportedly garnered trade interest at both the trade deadline in August and the non-tender deadline in November, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Pagan, 31, pitched 63 innings of 4.43 ERA baseball, earning seven saves with a high 30.7% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, and 39.9% ground ball rate. 2022 was Pagan’s third consecutive season with an ERA over 4.40 after gaining prominence pitching to a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings with the Rays in 2019. MLBTR predicts that Pagan will receive $3.7MM during his final trip through the arbitration process.
- Free agent and former two-time All-Star Zack Britton has “started his normal offseason throwing program and should be a full go in spring training,” reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that Britton is seeking a “one-year deal.” Britton, who turns 35 years old in December, pitched to a 1.90 ERA in 80 1/3 innings across 2019 and 2020 before dealing with elbow discomfort in early 2021 and undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of the season. Britton returned to the mound near the end of the 2022 season but was soon shut down with shoulder fatigue. Despite two lost years, Britton will likely field calls from across the league, having recorded ground ball rates of at least 70% in eight of his last ten seasons, excluding 2022.
Royals Hire Zach Bove As Assistant Pitching Coach
Zach Bove is the latest new face on the Royals’ coaching staff, as Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo (Twitter link) reports that Bove is leaving the Twins’ staff to become Kansas City’s new assistant pitching coach. Bove has been in Minnesota for the last four seasons, working in the assistant pitching coordinator role in 2022.
It marks another Royals hire from inside the AL Central, as K.C. just named Brian Sweeney (formerly the Guardians’ bullpen coach) as the team’s new pitching coach earlier this week. Beyond these hirings, the Royals also named Matt Quatraro as their new manager and Paul Hoover is the new bench coach, with both men coming from the Rays organization. Additionally, longtime former Giants coach José Alguacil is coming aboard as the Royals’ new infield coach.
Bove is one of several pitching coaches and coordinators around baseball who came to the majors from the college ranks, as Bove was a pitching coach at the College of Central Florida for seven years before he joined the Twins. With more of a new-school, analytical approach, Bove brings some different perspectives towards the Royals’ stated goal of helping bring their younger pitchers along at the MLB level. Brady Singer pitched well in 2022, but with Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar all struggling, the Royals haven’t gotten nearly the expected results from the pitchers they thought would be the backbone of the team’s latest rebuild.