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MLBTR Originals

Which Glove-First Shortstop Would You Rather Have?

By TC Zencka | May 30, 2020 at 12:17pm CDT

In a piece from MASN last week, Roch Kubatko said this of the Orioles’ search for a veteran shortstop: “The Orioles chose [Jose] Iglesias over Adeiny Hechavarría in their winter search for a glove-first shortstop.” Kubatko linked the Orioles to Hechavarria back in December, but La Pantera ultimately re-upped with the Braves on a one-year, $1MM deal. The Orioles, meanwhile, splurged on Iglesias, signing the 30-year-old gloveman for a one-year, $3MM guarantee (with a $3.5MM team option for 2021). 

Granted, the Jose Iglesias versus Adeiny Hechavarria showdown wasn’t the most compelling positional matchup of free agency. And while the Orioles may have shown interest in Hechavarria, these situations are dynamic, and the decision to sign one or the other was likely never quite so binary. Let’s use it as a jumping-off point for this player comparison anyway.

First, let’s cover the similarities, as both Cuban-born veterans are glove-first shortstops viewed generally as second-division starters. Hechavarria is a year older, and his deal comes at one-third the cost of Iglesias’, though the Orioles picked up the second year of control on Iglesias. Both players entered the league fairly young and both saw their first significant action in 2012 (Iglesias at 22 with the Red Sox, Hechavarria at 23 with the Blue Jays). And both have since gone on to play for multiple franchises (Iglesias for Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati and Baltimore, Hechavarria for Toronto, Miami, Tampa, Pittsburgh, both New Yorks, and Atlanta).

Since Iglesias has a more stable resume, my guess is his name carries a little more weight, so let’s start there. Iglesias, 30, has produced a total of 11.1 rWAR/11.6 fWAR thus far over his eight years in the bigs (he appeared in 10 games as a 21-year-old in 2011, but missed all of the 2014 season). The right-handed batter has traded off between ~2.5 fWAR and ~1.5 fWAR seasons going all the way back to his rookie campaign, but either way he presents as an above-average option at short. He produced 9 OAA at short last year, putting him among the elite options defensively at short.

The batting line is the question with Iglesias after posting a career line of .273/.315/.371. Included therein, however, is a fair amount of year-to-year variance. Early in his career, Iglesias was a .300 hitter, but over his final three seasons in Detroit (2016 to 2018) he managed a batting average of just .259 BA. The walk rate has been steadily below average, so when he can’t hit his way on base, his whole offensive profile suffers. He’s a difficult guy to strike out, and as a guy who puts the ball in play without much oomph, his offensive value is tied directly to his BABIP. When his BABIP falls below .300, his overall line underwhelms. When the ball bounces his way, such as in 2013, 2015, and 2019, Iglesias turns into an asset with the bat: combined .296 BA in those seasons.

Iglesias has also gained a modicum of power over the years. His isolated power was consistently below .100 for the early part of his career, but over the last three seasons, Iglesias has enjoyed a small bump to .114 ISO, .120 ISO, and .119 ISO. That’s still nothing to write home about, but put together with the rest of his profile, and it’s enough to make Iglesias a viable starter.

Thanks to his every-down status as the Marlins starting shortstop from 2013 to 2016, Hechavarria has appeared in more games and seen more plate appearances over his career than Iglesias. The past three seasons have been a whirlwind, however, as Hechavarria became a part-time player while playing for seven teams in the last three seasons. By WAR, he only comes about halfway to matching Iglesias’ career totals (5.6 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR). Iglesias edges out Hechavarria in most statistical categories, including career stolen bases (52 to 35).

Though their profiles are very similar, the real difference between the two is that Hechavarria hasn’t matched the offensive ceiling of Iglesias. They walk at similar rates, and though Hechavarria strikes out a little more, he still boasts an above-average ability to put the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he’s never quite put it all together. He hasn’t posted a batting average higher than .261 or an on-base percentage over .300 since 2015.

If there’s something in Hechavarria’s favor, it’s this: his power ticked upwards last season, to a robust .202 ISO. The added power came in only half a season of play, so it’s hard to know if the gains in Hechavarria’s game could/would be sustained over the course of a full slate of games. Back in Atlanta, we won’t likely find out, as he’s in line to back up Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies in the middle infield.

For that matter, it’s difficult to compare the contracts signed by Hechavarria and Iglesias because their expected roles are so different – and the expectations of their clubs are so very divergent. The Orioles might see triple the production from Iglesias that the Braves will from Hechavarria (to match the salary difference), but that’s at least in part because Iglesias could receive triple the playing time. Both the Orioles and Braves probably got the guy that better suits their needs – but in a vacuum – the choice is yours (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals Shortstops Adeiny Hechavarria Jose Iglesias

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Three Teams Played Musical Chairs With First Basemen…And Five Teams Came Away Winners

By TC Zencka | May 30, 2020 at 10:57am CDT

Last week, I looked at Cole Sulser’s prospects of making an impact in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Sulser found his way to Baltimore via Tampa Bay after being included in a three-way swap of more prominent players. Today, let’s take a look at those players. 

To review: in December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around their first basemen. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with (at least one) major-league first baseman. The Rays got Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, while the Indians snagged a pair of first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. 

There were auxiliary pieces that fit less cleanly into our first basemen carousel. The Rays picked up Sulser from Cleveland, while Tampa also sent $5MM to the Mariners. Seattle paid that money forward, sending a total of $6MM to the Indians. Coming back to Seattle was the Indians’ Round B selection in the draft. The Mariners ended up selecting right-handed pitcher Isaiah Campbell out of Arkansas with the #76 pick in the draft. Those pieces aside, let’s check in on how each team is feeling about their end of this whirlwind deal one season after the fact.

Indians

This move – and much of their offseason last winter – was largely about shuffling money around – but not wholly so. The Indians took back Santana, who had only recently been sent to Seattle after playing one season in Philadelphia. Santana made $20.3MM in 2019, but his contract was offset by sending out Encarnacion, who was owed $21.7MM in 2019 with a $5MM buyout for 2020. The difference in their salaries, plus the money acquired from Seattle netted the Indians close to $7.5MM in 2019, though they took on more long-term money in Santana.

On the field, this deal basically amounts to two exchanges for the Indians: Santana over Encarnacion in terms of big-money players, and Bauers over Diaz for cost-controlled assets. As for the first exchange, the Indians have to count this as a win. After one so-so year with the Phillies, Santana returned to form in a big way with the Indians. All aspects of Santana’s game came together in 2019. He hit .281/.397/.515 on the year with 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He turned in his typically strong BB-K numbers, posting identical walk and strikeout rates of 15.7% (slight improvements on his career norms in both departments). His isolated power (.234 ISO) was the second-highest mark of his career, while the .397 OBP was a new career-high for a full season. Santana’s season totaled 4.6rWAR/4.4 fWAR, good for 135 wRC+, and he’ll be back in their lineup for 2020.

Bauers, on the other hand, is a work in progress. He brings an added level of versatility, appearing in 31 games at first and 53 games in left, but he’ll need to improve at the plate to put that value to work. Bauers hit just .226/.312/.371 across 423 plate appearances in his first season with the Indians. His walk rate dropped to 10.6% and with a power mark of just .145 ISO. That’s not enough pop from a first baseman/left fielder. He finished with below-average marks of 78 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Still, all hope is not lost for Bauers. A career-low .290 BABIP might point to some positive regression in the future, and he doesn’t even turn 25-years-old until October.

Mariners

The Mariners’ biggest get here was the draft pick. GM Jerry Dipoto continued his rebuild, and ultimately, the swap of sluggers was an avenue to add another draft pick. After taking on Santana a week prior, the Mariners shed long-term money by swapping in Encarnacion, whom they eventually flipped to the Yankees.

While with the Mariners, Encarnacion was about as good as expected, slashing .241/.356/.531 with 21 home runs in 65 games. With the rebuild in full swing, EE was never expected to spend a full season in Seattle. Given his start to the year, the Mariners’ return for the DH was a little underwhelming, but the market for teams in need of a designated hitter was limited. Still, Trader Jerry added right-hander Juan Then from the Yankees. Fangraphs ranks Then as the Mariners’ #13-ranked prospect after finishing the season in A-ball. Campbell, selected with the acquired draft choice, comes in at #16.

The Yankees and Mariners essentially split the remaining money owed Encarnacion at the time, so the M’s did see some financial benefit as well. It’s often difficult to track the wheeling and dealing done by Dipoto, but we can give it a go here. To do so, we have to go back to the deal that sent Santana from the Phillies to Seattle. Dipoto sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos to Philly for Santana and J.P. Crawford. In sum, he started with Segura, Nicasio, and Pazos, and the Mariners ended up with Crawford, Then, and Campbell, along with some financial saving both in the short-and-long-term.

Rays

It was surprising to see the Rays move Jake Bauers at the time of this deal, but they’re no stranger to dealing from a young core. The Rays picked up Sulser and Diaz for Bauers in this trade, while also sending $5MM to the Mariners. Considering Sulser was eventually lost on waivers to the Orioles (though he did give them 7 scoreless innings in 2019), the move essentially amounts to the Rays paying $5MM to swap in Diaz for Bauers. At the time of the deal, Bauers was seen as an up-and-comer, while Diaz was a little-known 27-year-old utility player with little-to-no boom in his boomstick. As has often been the case of late with Rays’ trades, at a cursory glance, the Rays were trading away controllable youth for a role player.

But where the Rays are concerned, it’s often worth delving a little further. Diaz quickly became known for his above-average exit velocities. And while Diaz was a little older and without the prospect pedigree of Bauers, he came with similar team control, more versatility given his ability to line up at the hot corner, and his biceps have a cult following all their own.

Injuries unfortunately limited Diaz’s production in 2019, but when he was on the field, he was dynamite. While posting a line of .267/.340/.476 across 79 games, Diaz was coming into his own as a hitter with a 116 wRC+. Diaz’s minor league career to this point was a testament to his ability to get on base, limit strikeouts, and make hard contact, but a groundball-heavy approach limited his power.

But it was a different story in Tampa. Diaz produced a career-best .208 ISO to go with a 91.7 mph exit velocity that put him in the top 8% of the league, per Statcast. His hard-hit percentage continues to be well above average, and a small improvement in launch angle and a large jump in barrels led to Diaz smashing 14 home runs in 79 games after hitting just 1 in 88 big league games with the Indians.

Not only that, but Diaz returned from the injured list in time for the playoffs, leading off the wild card game with a solo shot off Sean Manaea. Diaz went deep his second time up as well, at which point the Rays had more than enough to get past the A’s. It was a monster performance from Diaz in the biggest game of the year up to that point. (Things didn’t go quite so well for Diaz in Houston, as he went 0 for 9 with four strikeouts in the ALDS.) The Rays have to feel pretty good about where they stand with Diaz moving forward, as he should continue to be a cheap source of offense for the next couple of seasons.

For that matter, all three teams have to feel pretty good about this deal, as they each accomplished their goal. If Bauers has a better showing in 2020 and the Mariners’ prospects come to fruition, there will ultimately be very little not to like about this three-way deal. Include the Orioles for nabbing Sulser and the Yankees for getting a half a season of Encarnacion, and it could be argued that five teams actually came away winners from this three-way swap of first baseman.

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Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Carlos Santana Cole Sulser Edwin Encarnacion Isaiah Campbell Jake Bauers Jerry Dipoto Yandy Diaz

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Remembering A Yankees-White Sox Blockbuster

By Connor Byrne | May 28, 2020 at 9:14pm CDT

In late July of 2017, the Yankees were mired in a weeks-long skid and working to avoid their second straight season without a playoff berth. After a 38-23 start to the season, the Yankees suffered a loss to the Twins on July 17 to fall to a so-so 47-44. They were in the midst of a free-fall, and general manager Brian Cashman decided he had seen enough. While the Yankees did get a win on the 18th, Cashman acted aggressively that night to acquire third baseman Todd Frazier and two relievers – right-handers David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle – from the White Sox. In doing so, Cashman surrendered three prospects – left-hander Ian Clarkin and outfielders Blake Rutherford and Tito Polo – as well as reliever Tyler Clippard.

The deal played some role in helping the Yankees to a 91-win finish, a playoff berth and a trip to the ALCS, where they lost to the eventual champion Astros in seven games. Frazier seemed to be a hugely positive influence in the clubhouse (remember the thumbs-down craze?), and on the field, he slashed a decent .222/.365/.423 with 11 home runs in 241 plate appearances. Frazier was only a rental at the time, though, and he wound up with the Mets the next offseason on a two-year, $17MM guarantee.

Robertson, a Yankee from 2008-14 before he signed a four-year, $46MM contract with the White Sox prior to 2015, was excellent in his return to the Bronx. He threw 104 2/3 innings of 2.49 ERA ball with 12.21 K/9 and 2.37 BB/9 over parts of two seasons, though he left the Yankees as a free agent yet again when the Phillies inked him to a two-year, $23MM in advance of the 2019 campaign.

Kahnle, meanwhile, is still in the Bronx. The year the White Sox gave him up, Kahnle (who entered the pros as a fifth-rounder of the Yankees back in 2010) was amid a breakout season in which he wound up throwing 62 2/3 frames of 2.59 ERA/1.83 FIP ball with 13.79 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9 between the two teams. The 2018 season proved to be an injury-shortened disaster for Kahnle, who could only manage a 6.56 ERA/4.19 FIP in 23 1/3 innings, but he bounced back last year with a 3.67 ERA/3.33 FIP and 12.91 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 across 61 1/3 innings.

The Yankees can control Kahnle at reasonable prices through 2021, so he should continue to be an important part of their bullpen for at least a little while longer. However, when they made this deal, the Yankees were no doubt hoping it would help propel them to a championship. That hasn’t happened, though they have made three consecutive playoff appearances since swinging the trade. As for the White Sox, who were still a long way from contention when they agreed to the swap, here’s how their return has gone so far…

  • Ian Clarkin: The former first-rounder (No. 33 in 2013) struggled enough in Double-A in 2018, his first full year in Chicago’s system, for the team to designate him for assignment. He threw 13 1/3 innings with the Cubs’ Double-A club last season and is now in the San Diego organization.
  • Blake Rutherford: The 18th pick in 2016, Rutherford topped out as Baseball America’s 45th-best prospect after 2017, though his stock has dropped since then. After the 23-year-old batted .265/.319/.365 with seven homers in 480 PA at Double-A last season, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him as Chicago’s No. 15 prospect.
  • Tito Polo: Now 25, Polo only lasted in the White Sox’s system through 2018. He divided last season between the Mariners’ Triple-A team and the Mexican League. He’s currently a free agent.
  • Tyler Clippard: Less than a month after acquiring Clippard, the White Sox traded the veteran to the Astros for cash considerations.

Almost three full years since this trade occurred, it seems Kahnle has emerged as the most valuable long-term asset involved. Now, Chicago’s only hope is for Rutherford to turn into a viable major leaguer, as the other players it received left the organization and didn’t bring back any assets when they departed.

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Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals New York Yankees

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The 2008 Top 10: Four Teams Passed On Potential Hall Of Famer

By Connor Byrne | May 28, 2020 at 5:03pm CDT

Twelve years after the 2008 amateur draft, one top 10 pick ranks far above the rest…

1.) Tim Beckham, SS, Rays:

Taking Beckham at No. 1 has long looked like one of the most regrettable moves in Rays history. Beckham was only a .247/.299/.421 hitter with 2.5 fWAR in 791 plate appearances with the team from 2013-17. and it flipped him to the Orioles for right-hander Tobias Myers in the last of those seasons. Myers hasn’t advanced past the High-A level for Tampa Bay, while Beckham didn’t offer much production for Baltimore in 2018 or Seattle in ’19. He’s currently a free agent after the league hit him with an 80-game PED suspension last August.

2.) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates:

Alvarez wasn’t a total bust for the Pirates, with whom he put up two 30-home run seasons worth 2.5-plus fWAR apiece. The former Vanderbilt Commodore hasn’t lived up to his draft status, though, and is now accompanying Beckham in free agency. Alvarez, who has also played for the Orioles, hasn’t taken a major league diamond since 2018. If his career in the bigs is over, he’ll end as a .236/.310/.447 hitter with 162 homers and 7.7 fWAR.

3.) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals:

Hosmer had an inconsistent run as a Royal from 2011-17, but the highs were high. He was a key part of the Royals’ most recent championship team in 2015, and his .284/.342/.439 line with 127 homers and 60 steals in their uniform helped lead to a notable free-agent payday heading into the 2018 season. The Padres forked over a guaranteed eight years and $144MM to Hosmer, but he hasn’t lived up to the deal so far. The 30-year-old has hit .259/.316/.412 with minus-0.5 fWAR since he signed with San Diego.

4.) Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles:

Matusz once looked like a can’t-miss prospect, but he failed to match the hype. To Matuz’s credit, after a pretty rough run from 2009-12, he reinvented himself as a solid reliever for the Orioles from 2013-15. However, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since a horrid nine-inning run with the Braves and Cubs in 2016. Matusz hasn’t officially retired yet, but he’s likely to call it quits as the owner of a 4.92 ERA across 528 2/3 innings.

5.) Buster Posey, C, Giants:

Finally, a smash success. Posey, 33, is the lone member of the 2008 top 10 with a legitimate Hall of Fame case. He’s a six-time All-Star, an NL Rookie of the Year, an MVP and someone who has been instrumental in three Giants World Series titles. Posey’s also a lifetime .302/.370/.456 batter with 140 homers and 52.7 fWAR.

6.) Kyle Skipworth, C, Marlins:

“Why couldn’t the Giants have taken Skipworth instead of Posey?”-The Marlins now, probably. Skipworth totaled four plate appearances as a Marlin in 2013, the only year in which he appeared in the majors. He last appeared in pro baseball in 2016 as part of Cincinnati’s minor league system.

7.) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds:

Alonso had a brief run with the Reds from 2010-11, after which they sent him to the Padres in a mega-trade for righty Mat Latos. Alonso has since had just one above-average season – with the A’s and Mariners in 2017, when he batted .266/.365/.501 with 28 homers and 2.4 fWAR. He has fallen back to earth since then, though, and has only accounted for 5.4 fWAR with a .259/.332/.404 line and 100 HRs in the majors during his career. Alonso’s now with the Braves, who signed him to a minor league contract over the winter.

8.) Gordon Beckham, SS, White Sox:

Beckham had a poor run as a member of the White Sox, with whom he hit .242/.304/.370 in over 3,100 PA, and has also struggled to put up good numbers in a few other stops. The 33-year-old is now a free agent.

9.) Aaron Crow, RHP, Nationals:

Washington failed to sign Crow, so it received the No. 10 pick in the 2009 draft as compensation. The team used that choice on righty Drew Storen, who logged a 3.02 ERA with 95 saves and 72 holds in 334 innings with the Nats from 2010-15.

10.) Jason Castro, C, Astros:

Thanks in part to his well-known pitch-framing wizardry, Castro has thus far enjoyed a respectable career between Houston and Minnesota. He’s a career .231/.313/.390 hitter with 86 HRs and 14.5 fWAR, and is just a few months removed from signing a one-year, $6.85MM contract with the Angels.

—

Any other first-round notables?

Not many. Gerrit Cole went 28th to the Yankees, but they couldn’t sign him (they made up for that a few months ago). Justin Smoak (No. 11), Aaron Hicks (14), Andrew Cashner (19) and Lonnie Chisenhall (29) also came off the board in that year’s top 30. There was some more success in the supplemental round, where Jake Odorizzi (32), Lance Lynn (39) and Wade Miley (43) were taken.

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MLBTR Originals

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Which 15 Players Should The Nationals Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 28, 2020 at 4:00pm CDT

We’re planning a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.  We’ll have plenty more next week, culminating in a live draft event.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

Click here for previous entries in the series.  The Nationals are the last team up for discussion.

First we’ll remove free agents Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick, Kurt Suzuki, Asdrubal Cabrera, Sean Doolittle, Eric Thames, and Anibal Sanchez from consideration.  Adam Eaton’s $10.5MM club option for 2021 is worth entertaining, so I’ll add him to the poll.  Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg make the protected list due to their no-trade clauses.  We’ll lock down seven players out of the gate:

Max Scherzer
Stephen Strasburg
Juan Soto
Trea Turner
Patrick Corbin
Victor Robles
Carter Kieboom

That leaves eight spots for the remaining 23 players.  You can review the Nationals’ contract statuses and service time here.

Tres Barrera
Aaron Barrett
James Bourque
Starlin Castro
Wilmer Difo
Adam Eaton
Roenis Elias
Erick Fedde
Yan Gomes
Ryne Harper
Will Harris
Daniel Hudson
Kyle McGowin
Jake Noll
Tanner Rainey
Raudy Read
Joe Ross
Adrian Sanchez
Andrew Stevenson
Wander Suero
Michael A. Taylor
Austin Voth
Austen Williams

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly eight players you think the Nationals should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals

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Which 15 Players Should The Phillies Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 28, 2020 at 1:00pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

Click here for previous entries in the series.  The Phillies are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents J.T. Realmuto, Jay Bruce, Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, Jose Alvarez, and David Robertson from consideration.  Bryce Harper and Jean Segura will make the protected list due to their no-trade clauses.  As Baseball America Top 100 prospects with a 2020 ETA, Spencer Howard and Alec Bohm will also make the list.  We’ll protect a total of 11 players out of the gate:

Bryce Harper
Jean Segura
Spencer Howard
Alec Bohm
Aaron Nola
Rhys Hoskins
Scott Kingery
Zack Wheeler
Zach Eflin
Adam Haseley
Hector Neris

That leaves four spots for the remaining 19 players.  Check out the Phillies’ contract statuses here.

Vìctor Arano
Austin Davis
Enyel De Los Santos
Seranthony Dominguez
Edgar Garcia
Kyle Garlick
Deivy Grullon
Deolis Guerra
Cole Irvin
Andrew Knapp
Reggie McClain
Andrew McCutchen
Adam Morgan
Nick Pivetta
Roman Quinn
Robert Stock
Ranger Suarez
Vince Velasquez
Nick Williams

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Phillies should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies

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Which 15 Players Should The Mets Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 28, 2020 at 9:53am CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Marlins, Braves, Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Mets are up next.

First, we’ll begin by removing free agents Jed Lowrie, Rick Porcello, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Wilson, Michael Wacha, Marcus Stroman, Jake Marisnick, Wilson Ramos, Brad Brach, and Dellin Betances from consideration.  The latter three have 2021 options, but we will consider them free agents for this exercise.  Robinson Cano and Jacob deGrom will make the protected list by virtue of their no-trade clauses.  We’ll protect a total of a dozen players out of the gate:

Robinson Cano
Jacob deGrom
Pete Alonso
Jeff McNeil
Noah Syndergaard
Michael Conforto
Amed Rosario
Brandon Nimmo
J.D. Davis
Steven Matz
Edwin Diaz
Seth Lugo

That leaves three spots for the following 12 players.  Be sure to check out the Mets’ contract statuses here.

Tyler Bashlor
Jeurys Familia
Robert Gsellman
Luis Guillorme
Walker Lockett
Tomas Nido
Corey Oswalt
Jacob Rhame
Paul Sewald
Dominic Smith
Drew Smith
Daniel Zamora

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly three players you think the Mets should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals New York Mets

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Which 15 Players Should The Marlins Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 27, 2020 at 11:00pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

So far, we’ve covered the Braves, Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Marlins are up next.

We’ll start by removing free agents Jonathan Villar, Matt Joyce, Francisco Cervelli, and Brandon Kintzler from consideration.  Sixto Sanchez and Jesus Sanchez will make the protected list as Baseball America Top 100 prospects with 2020 ETAs.  Here’s the initial protected list of ten players:

Sixto Sanchez
Jesus Sanchez
Brian Anderson
Sandy Alcantara
Miguel Rojas
Jorge Alfaro
Isan Diaz
Caleb Smith
Pablo Lopez
Jordan Yamamoto

That leaves five spots for the remaining 17 players.  Check out contract statuses and team control here.

Jesus Aguilar
Jon Berti
Jeff Brigham
Lewis Brinson
Adam Conley
Garrett Cooper
Corey Dickerson
Robert Dugger
Yimi Garcia
Elieser Hernandez
Harold Ramirez
Magneuris Sierra
Ryne Stanek
Drew Steckenrider
Stephen Tarpley
Jose Urena
Chad Wallach

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly five players you think the Marlins should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

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Remembering The Tigers’ 3-Star Sale

By Connor Byrne | May 27, 2020 at 10:04pm CDT

It seems like long ago, but the Tigers were one of the majors’ most successful teams in the first half of the previous decade. The club won four straight AL Central titles from 2011-14, a span in which it combined for a 366-282 regular-season record and took home a pennant (2012). Success has largely eluded the Tigers since that four-year run, though. Going back to 2015, they’ve posted just one winning season and are now only a couple weeks away from drafting first overall for the second time in three years.

During the summer of 2017, sensing his bottom-feeding team was a long way from contention, general manager Al Avila launched an aggressive rebuild. In a little over a month, he traded three of the Tigers’ veteran stars for a total of eight prospects. Here’s how those deals have gone so far…

July 18: Diamondbacks Acquire J.D. Martinez

Martinez was a failed Astro whom the Tigers scooped up off the scrapheap before 2014 and then saw evolve into one of the most dominant hitters in the game. As a Tiger from 2014-17, Martinez turned a remade swing into a line of .300/.361/.551 (145 wRC+) with 99 home runs in 1,886 plate appearances. However, with Martinez just months away from free agency, the Tigers parted with him in exchange for infield prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

Martinez finished the season on a rampage in Arizona and has continued to rake in Boston since 2018, but Lugo’s the only player in the package the Tigers received for JDM who has even played for them. It hasn’t been pretty, as the 25-year-old combined to hit .237/.270/.362 (63 wRC+) with minus-1.0 fWAR from 2018-19. FanGraphs likened Alcantara to ex-Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias a year ago, when he batted .247/.346/.296 in 378 trips to the plate in Double-A. Considering his lack of power, his well-regarded defense will have to carry him to the majors. King, 21, hasn’t advanced beyond Single-A ball, where he put up a meek .209/.283/.279 line in 193 attempts last season.

Aug. 31: Angels Acquire Justin Upton

Nearing the end of the August waiver trade deadline, the Tigers swung their first of two massive deals before the clock ran out. Upton inked a six-year, $132.75MM contract with the Tigers under 20 months earlier, and 2017 has been one of his most productive seasons yet. However, with the Tigers launching a rebuild and Upton weeks away from having to decide on an opt-out clause, they decided to let him and the remaining four years, $88.5MM of his pact go in exchange for righties Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez. The return hasn’t amounted to much so far – Long retired before he ever threw a pitch in the Detroit organization, though Rodriguez does have some promise. He logged a 3.77 ERA/4.06 FIP in 133 2/3 High-A innings as a 21-year-old last season, and MLB.com ranks him as the Tigers’ 27th overall prospect.

Aug. 31: Astros Acquire Justin Verlander

In one of the most famous buzzer-beating trades in the history of sports, the Tigers shipped off a franchise icon with moments to spare before the deadline passed. Verlander was regularly among the game’s superstar pitchers in Detroit since the first full season of his career in 2006, but as a then-34-year-old, his days as an elite hurler seemed to be in the past. Not the case, though, as Verlander rounded back into form down the stretch in Houston, which he helped lead to a championship in the fall, and hasn’t let up. In fact, he won his second AL Cy Young Award and earned his eighth All-Star nod in his age-36 season in 2019.

Although Verlander cleared waivers, he still could have used his full no-trade rights to reject the deal. In accepting the move, he cleared the way for the Tigers to receive three prospects in catcher Jake Rogers, righty Franklin Perez and outfielder Daz Cameron (Detroit also paid $16MM of Verlander’s remaining $56MM and gave up outfielder Juan Ramirez as a player to be named later).

Has anyone from the trio the Tigers landed contributed in the majors yet? Not really. Rogers debuted as a Tiger last season and hit a disastrous .125/.222/.259 (27 wRC+). Perez hasn’t pitched above High-A, and Cameron has had an awful time at Triple-A since he first arrived there in 2018. In fairness to these three players, they’re all still young – Rogers is 25, Perez is 22 and Cameron is 23 – so it’s far too early to write off their careers. In the cases of Perez and Cameron, it’s worth noting that they aren’t far removed from landing on top 100 prospect lists, so there’s still some intrigue in Detroit’s return for Verlander.

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The Best Top 10 Pick Of 2012

By Connor Byrne | May 27, 2020 at 7:59pm CDT

Before we revisit the top 10 picks of the 2012 Major League Baseball amateur draft, let’s begin with a reminder of a few notable players who fell just outside of it. Right-hander Lucas Giolito (No. 16), shortstop Corey Seager (18) and Marcus Stroman (22) weren’t deemed worthy of the top 10 at the time, but all three now look like above-average major leaguers. That’s more than can be said for some of those who were among the first 10 selections that year…

1.) Carlos Correa, SS, Astros:

  • Health has been the main issue so far for Correa, who has performed extremely well when he has been able to take the field. Since debuting in 2015, Correa has only appeared in more than 110 games in a season once (he missed 87 last year), but he has slashed .277/.356/.489 with 102 home runs and 18.5 fWAR. Correa also helped the Astros to a World Series championship in 2017, though that title has been sullied by a sign-stealing scandal.

2.) Byron Buxton, OF, Twins:

  • Buxton’s another player whom injuries have troubled to this point, and he also hasn’t been consistently productive. When Buxton’s right, though, he’s electrifying to watch. Buxton’s an elite defender in center field, where he has posted 42 DRS and a 25.8 UZR in his career, but his offense hasn’t come close to that level. He’s just a .237/.292/.414 hitter with 38 homers and 60 steals to date, but he may have turned the corner last year with a .262/.314/.513 line during a 295-PA campaign.

3.) Mike Zunino, C, Mariners:

  • Like Buxton, Zunino also hasn’t been able to put it together on a regular basis. Owing to a combination of defense and power, he was roughly a 4.0-fWAR player in two seasons (2014 and ’17) and a 2.0-fWAR contributor in another (’18), but he wasn’t very productive in his other campaigns. The 29-year-old is now a member of the Rays, who acquired him in November 2018 as part of a trade that brought outfielder Mallex Smith to Seattle, but his first season in Tampa Bay didn’t go well. Zunino ventured to the Rays as a .207/.276/.406 hitter. That’s not especially impressive, yet it trumps the .165/.232/312 line he put up a season ago.

4.) Kevin Gausman, RHP, Orioles:

  • Gausman has not evolved into a major league ace, but he has recorded a handful of respectable seasons. He managed a 4.22 ERA/4.16 FIP with 8.21 K/9 and 2.71 BB/9 in 763 2/3 innings with Baltimore from 2013-18 before the team traded him to Atlanta. Gausman was effective with the Braves then, but things went south last year, which led the club to cut ties with him in August. He finished the season on a solid run as a Reds reliever and then inked a one-year, $9MM deal with the Giants this past offseason. Not long ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked into Gausman’s chances of a full-blown bounce-back effort in San Francisco.

5.) Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Royals:

  • Injuries have played a significant role in torpedoing the once-promising Zimmer’s career. He finally made his MLB debut last season at the age of 27, but across 18 1/3 innings, he yielded 22 earned runs on 18 hits and totaled more walks (19) than strikeouts (18).

6.) Albert Almora, OF, Cubs:

  • Almora is coming off his third straight season of regular playing time, but he hasn’t made much of an impact in the majors yet. The 26-year-old has amassed 1,282 PA as a Cub and hit .274/.311/.403 with 2.1 fWAR dating back to his 2016 debut.

7.) Max Fried, LHP, Padres:

  • Fried didn’t pitch in the majors for the Padres, who sent him to Atlanta in 2014 as part of a blockbuster to acquire Justin Upton. But Fried now looks like a keeper for the Braves, as he gave the team 165 2/3 innings of 4.02 ERA/3.72 FIP ball with 9.4 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent groundball rate in his first full season last year. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, the 26-year-old Fried may have even more to offer going forward.

8.) Mark Appel, RHP, Pirates:

  • The Pirates didn’t sign Appel, which entitled them a compensatory pick (No. 9) in the 2013 draft. They used that selection on outfielder Austin Meadows, who broke out last season with a .291/.364/.558 line, 33 homers, 12 steals and 4.0 fWAR. The problem for Pittsburgh is that Meadows’ success came in a Tampa Bay uniform. In what looks like one of the most regrettable trades in franchise history, the Pirates sent Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz to the Rays for Chris Archer in July 2018.

9.) Andrew Heaney, LHP, Marlins:

  • Heaney only pitched 29 1/3 innings for the Marlins, who traded him to the Dodgers in a huge deal in 2014. And Heaney didn’t pitch at all for the Dodgers, as the club quickly flipped him to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. Since that chaotic sequence, Heaney has gone on to an up-and-down, injury-limited tenure as a member of the Angels, with whom he has totaled 408 2/3 innings of 4.34 ERA/4.36 FIP ball with 9.03 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9.

10.) David Dahl, OF, Rockies:

  • Yet another player whom injuries have haunted over the years, Dahl hasn’t yet appeared in more than 100 games in a single season. That said, at least the 26-year-old has been an above-average hitter when healthy. Even taking into account that he calls hitter-friendly Coors Field his home, he has logged a wRC+ of 111 thus far, having slashed .297/.346/.521 with 38 HRs in 921 trips to the plate.
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