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MLBTR Originals

Top 40 MLB Trade Candidates: Early June Edition

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Memorial Day is behind us, which is typically the time of year that teams at least begin to shift their focus to the summer trade market. With this year’s draft pushed back to July, it’s possible some clubs will look to be active a bit earlier than usual. Even if things don’t really pick up until next month, as is typically the case, we at least have some semblance of an idea as to how things will play out.

As in past years, this list aims to rank players on a combination of likelihood of being moved and overall value as a trade chip. It’s all subjective, of course, but “value” in this instance is a reference to a player’s on-field production, salary, remaining club control, etc.

Club control and salary dovetail nicely with a player’s likelihood of being moved. Rebuilding clubs and clear sellers are obviously more likely to move impending free agents — particularly those who aren’t candidates to receive a qualifying offer. Players with one extra year of control are also frequently moved at the deadline, but once you start getting into players with two, three and four years of affordable control remaining, the likelihood diminishes. The composition of a club’s farm system comes into play, too. Does a veteran with a year and a half of club control remaining have a top prospect breathing down his neck? Is the team’s farm so bleak that it needs to consider moving players with several years of control remaining? There are many factors to consider.

As the deadline draws nearer, the names on the list will change. Teams will fall out of contention, and some who look far from the top of their division will make a surge. Injuries or poor performance will sap some players’ value, while a return to health or a turnaround on the field could boost the performance of others. Again, it’s subjective and highly debatable, which is part of what makes the whole thing a fun exercise.

On to the list!

1. Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: The Rockies turned over their front office earlier this year after yet another lackluster start, and Gray stands out as the likeliest trade candidate on the roster. The former No. 3 overall pick and top prospect is in the midst of a solid rebound campaign, but he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. The Rockies probably wouldn’t issue a qualifying offer without a huge finish to the year, and starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline.

2. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: While Gray may be something of a borderline QO candidate, Story seems like a lock to receive a qualifying offer if he isn’t traded. That’s the key difference between him and Gray in terms of trade likelihood; the Rox need to feel that whatever they receive in return is more valuable than that 2022 draft pick. It should be noted that outside of a brief hot streak from mid-April to early May, Story hasn’t really hit much in 2021. He’s also on the IL with what the team has termed minor elbow inflammation, and the hope is his stint will last only 10 days. Story is also striking out at a career-low 22.4 percent clip without sacrificing anything in the walk department, and his track record is so strong that if he shows his health in the next few weeks, interest should be robust.

3. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners: It was great to see Haniger take the field at all after his 2019-20 seasons were derailed by a bizarre series of escalating injuries, but the fact that he’s returned as one of the American League’s most productive hitters only makes his story better. They’re enjoying the comeback in Seattle for now, but Haniger only has a year of control remaining beyond the 2021 season. With a deep crop of young outfielders on which to rely — 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, plus top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell — the Mariners seem likely to explore the market for Haniger this summer. He’s earning $3.01MM in 2021.

4. Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: The Tigers held onto Boyd when he was one of the most oft-mentioned trade candidates in the game in 2019, but their club control on him is beginning to dwindle. Boyd is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, and he’s enjoying a nice year thanks largely to a new-look changeup that has helped him neutralize opposing right-handers. So long as Boyd stays healthy and reasonably effective, this summer will be his trade value’s apex. It’s hard to see him sticking around into August.

5. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Pirates: Anderson’s signing couldn’t have worked out much better for the Bucs so far. He’s pitching his best baseball since his rookie year in 2016 and sporting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. Durability is a major question mark for Anderson, who has only twice started 25 games in a season. But he’s been healthy since Opening Day 2020, and his $2.5MM base salary is a bargain for clubs in need of some reinforcements at the back of the rotation.

6. Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pirates: Frazier has put last year’s awful season in the rear-view mirror and is in the midst of the best start of his six-year career. The 29-year-old has ample experience at second base and in the outfield, and he could fill in as a starter or versatile bench option for any contending club. His $4.3MM salary is, incredibly, the second-largest on the Pirates behind Gregory Polanco, but that’s an eminently affordable price for Frazier even if he reverts back to his typical, roughly league-average level of offensive output.

7. Richard Rodriguez, RHP, Pirates: One of the most anonymous high-end relievers in the game, the 31-year-old Rodriguez boasts a 2.84 ERA, a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate dating back to 2018 with the Pirates. He’s not flashy, sitting 93.2 mph with his heater, but Rodriguez gets the job done and is controllable all the way through 2023. Any team seeking a high-leverage reliever could acquire two and a half years of his services this summer, and given his $1.7MM salary in 2021, his subsequent arbitration raises won’t break the bank.

8. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Rangers: Gibson’s 2020 season was a nightmare, and the 2021 campaign looked to be more of the same after he couldn’t escape the first inning of his first start. Since that awful 2021 debut? All Gibson has done is pitch 54 innings of 1.50 ERA ball with a 53.7 percent grounder rate and the lowest walk rate of his career. His strikeout rate is below-average, he’s not going to sustain the .214 BABIP he’s logged over those eight starts, and his 81.7 percent strand rate is due for a correction as well. But even with some regression baked in, Gibson looks like the latest veteran to outperform a modestly-priced three-year deal in Texas. He’s on the IL with a groin injury at the moment but is reportedly looking at a fairly minimal stint.

9. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: Kennedy has had more success than arguably any pitcher who inked a minor league deal this winter, rejuvenating his career with a dominant showing as the Rangers’ closer. He’s among baseball’s leaders in saves and is doing so with a revitalized heater, a strikeout rate north of 31 percent and the lowest walk rate of his career. That minor league pact came with a $2.15MM base salary, which makes Kennedy affordable for any team in need of bullpen help. He’s a free agent at season’s end, but he looks like one of the better bullpen rentals out there.

10. Kendall Graveman, RHP, Mariners: Another reliever rental in the AL West, Graveman has gone from a solid fourth starter to someone who looks like a potentially overpowering bullpen piece. His sinker velocity has soared since he moved to short stints after an IL stint in 2020, and he’s emerged as the Mariners’ closer on the back of a 26 2/3-inning run during which he’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a 22-to-6 K/BB ratio and a 50 percent ground-ball rate. He’s currently on the Covid-related IL, but Graveman hasn’t surrendered a run in 16 2/3 frames this season. He’s on a one-year, $1.25MM deal with incentives that can max it out at $3.75MM. This is the type of reliever every buyer will want.

11. Yimi Garcia, RHP, Marlins: The Dodgers’ decision to non-tender Garcia in 2019 has proven regrettable. Since joining the Fish on a $1.1MM deal that winter, Garcia has turned in 36 2/3 innings of 1.23 ERA ball, striking out 29.2 percent of opponents and walking just 6.8 percent of them along the way. He’s on a small $1.9MM salary in 2021 and will be a free agent at season’s end, making him an appealing rental option for teams in need of relief help (which ought to be nearly every contender).

12. David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks: Peralta, 34 this summer, hasn’t recaptured his 30-homer pace from the 2018 season but has been an above-average bat and solid corner defender throughout his career. When the deadline rolls around, he’ll be halfway through a three-year, $22MM extension on a D-backs club that has been among the worst in the game. He generally struggles against lefties, but Peralta mashes right-handed pitching and would be a boost to any club looking for some left-handed pop — particularly if said club has a solid right-handed pairing for him. He’s earning $7.5MM in 2021 and has the same salary in 2022.

13. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers: Like Boyd, Fulmer has a year of control beyond the 2021 campaign and was an oft-mentioned trade candidate earlier in his career. It’s a little easier to see why Fulmer wasn’t moved, as trading a former AL Rookie of the Year when he had four or even five years of club control remaining would’ve required a massive haul. By the time he was in a more conventional window to be moved, injuries had wrecked multiple seasons for the righty. Those look to be in the past now, however, as Fulmer has seamlessly moved from the rotation to the ’pen, stepping up as Detroit’s closer in 2021. His fastball velocity is as good as ever now that he’s working in short stints, and Fulmer boasts career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. He’s owed a raise on his $3.1MM salary in arbitration this winter, but that looks plenty reasonable for this version of the right-hander.

14. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron’s minor league pact with the Rox could scarcely have gone better thus far. He’s proven that his surgically repaired knee is healthy, which was about the only question mark surrounding him given that Cron has hit pretty much since the day he made his MLB debut. He’s not an elite defensive first baseman and doesn’t really offer any versatility, but he’s a solid everyday option at first or DH. Cron is a bit above average against righties and absolutely punishes lefties. His deal came with just a $1MM base salary at the MLB level, so he’s not going to break the bank. Teams have generally devalued first base/DH-only sluggers in recent years, but Cron will draw interest and fetch the Rockies a prospect or two.

15. Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins: Minnesota is probably baseball’s most disappointing team, and at 22-31, things are looking bleak. Pineda stands as the most logical rental candidate they could market, though the Twins’ offseason consisted entirely of one-year free-agent signings, so they surely have others. Pineda should have the broadest market, however, as most contenders will be looking for solid rotation pieces, and he certainly fits the bill. Pineda is playing out the second season of a two-year, $20MM deal and will be a free agent this winter. Barring a major winning streak in Minnesota, he figures to be available.

16-17. Dylan Bundy (RHP) & Andrew Heaney (LHP), Angels: Bundy has been rocked in his past three starts, which has sent his ERA spiking to 6.50. His velocity is up this season over its 2020 levels, however, and he’s sporting similar marks in K-BB%, SIERA and other secondary indicators that he carried during his excellent 2020 season. If Bundy continues to struggle with the long ball, which has been an issue for him in the past, then his stock will obviously dip. If he looks like he did in 2020 or through his first six starts of this season, however, he’ll be one of the market’s more in-demand rentals. It’s a somewhat similar tale for Heaney, who has had a roller-coaster season beginning with a miserable season debut. He’s sporting a 5.24 ERA but with demonstrably better K-BB numbers and fielding-independent marks. With the Angels six games under .500, Mike Trout absent for another six to seven weeks and a new front office regime installed, the Angels could sell off some short-term pieces.

18. Jose Urena, RHP, Tigers: A hard-throwing 29-year-old, Urena doesn’t miss many bats but is inducing grounders at a 54.3 percent clip and has been a generally solid fifth starter for a rebuilding Tigers club that is all but certain to flip him if a decent offer presents itself. Urena has a 4.14 ERA in 54 1/3 frames, albeit with a poor 15 percent strikeout rate and a pedestrian 9.4 percent walk rate. He’s unlikely to factor into a club’s playoff rotation unless injuries necessitate it, but for a postseason hopeful looking for some stability at the back of the rotation for the season’s final few months, Urena is a decent, low-cost option. He signed a one-year, $3.3MM deal with Detrot this winter.

19. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Angels: The 31-year-old has run into some uncharacteristic homer troubles since being traded to the Halos, but he’s also sporting the best K-BB% of his career thanks to a career-best 35.1 percent strikeout rate and a career-low 3.9 percent walk rate. His ERA is just shy of 5.00, but most teams will expect that number to trend downward in the months to come. Iglesias is second among 184 qualified relievers with a 21.1 percent swinging-strike rate, and his 37.9 percent chase rate is tied for 19th.

20. Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: Gallo is drawing walks at a career-high clip, and his strikeout rate is “down” to a career-low 34 percent. His power numbers have trended downward since Opening Day 2020, however, and if Gallo isn’t hitting like a 30- or 40-home run threat by this summer, the offers probably won’t be enough for Texas to consider a move. Playing on a $6.2MM salary for the current season, Gallo is controllable through the 2022 campaign.

21. Nelson Cruz, DH, Twins: Cruz is in his third season with Minnesota and has become an invaluable leader and integral part of the clubhouse. Trading him would be a difficult move, and his market will likely be limited to AL suitors. The Twins are likely hoping a big June showing for their team can get them back into the postseason hunt, but it’s increasingly tough to ignore a 22-31 record and a 10.5-game deficit in the division. If they’re still nowhere near contending as July 30 approaches, Cruz could be the most impactful bat moved at this year’s deadline.

22-23. Eduardo Escobar & Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Diamondbacks: The D-backs hold one of the game’s worst records. Escobar and Cabrera are reasonably productive veterans who are impending free agents. It’s a pretty textbook formula for a trade. Escobar slumped to a .269 OBP since 2020, but he’s also been dogged by a .241 average on balls in play during that time — well down from his career .290 mark. He’s never drawn many walks, so the BABIP dip has been particularly harmful to his batting line. That said, his power is back in 2021 after a brief disappearance in 2020. The 32-year-old is solid at second or third, can handle left field or shortstop in a pinch, and is playing on a reasonable $7.5MM salary. The switch-hitting Cabrera, meanwhile, just keeps on producing, even at 35 years of age. He’s no longer a shortstop, but Cabrera can handle either infield corner and second base. He’s been an average or better hitter every season since 2015, and this year has been perhaps the best start of his generally underrated career. Playing on just a $1.75MM salary this season, he’d be a boost to any contending club’s infield mix, although he’s currently on the injured list with a right hamstring strain.

24. Michael A. Taylor, OF, Royals: The longtime Nats outfielder inked a one-year deal with the Royals after getting non-tendered and is out to a .256/.308/.397 start in 169 plate appearances. Taylor isn’t a great hitter, but he’s a plus defender with some home run power who can swipe a handful of bases in a given year. Considering the number of clubs dealing with outfield injuries — in center field in particular — Taylor represents a fine stopgap who can later shift to a bench role. He’s playing on a cheap $1.75MM base salary, which makes him affordable for just about any team.

25. Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks: I profiled Kelly as one of the game’s more appealing under-the-radar trade chips last summer. He promptly went on the injured list thereafter, and within weeks was headed for thoracic outlet surgery. Sorry, Merrill. He’s back healthy in 2021, and while the results haven’t been as good this year, Kelly is sporting solid K-BB numbers and has really been plagued by a poor strand rate. Looking past his smallish-sample ERA, his skill set appears pretty similar to that of the 2019-20 version of Kelly who was a solid No. 4 starter. It’s not necessarily an exciting package, but Kelly has just a $4.25MM salary in 2021 and a $5.25MM option for 2022, so he’s a nice add for a pitching-hungry team with budgetary constraints.

26. Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers: Grossman’s two-year, $10MM deal with Detroit this winter has already paid off in spades. His perennially high walk rate is at a career-best 15.9 percent, and he’s posted a .256/.382/.423 slash with five homers and a 7-for-8 showing in stolen base attempts. Grossman isn’t a great defender, but he’s playable in either corner and is a proven source of OBP whose power has ticked up in the past couple seasons. A contender with OBP struggles and/or outfield deficiencies could probably jump the market, since Grossman ought to be available well in advance of the July 30 deadline.

27. Freddy Galvis, SS, Orioles: Hitting for the most power of his career with his second-best walk rate and a strikeout rate a good bit south of league average, Galvis has exceeded expectations in Baltimore. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average feel he’s playing the worst defense of his career, but a contender might look to Galvis as more of a utility option to bounce between shortstop, third base and second base anyhow. His cheap $1.5MM salary isn’t going to stand in the way of anyone acquiring him. Galvis obviously won’t get a qualifying offer, and the Orioles aren’t going to contend this year, so the impending free agent seems all but guaranteed to be traded as long as he’s healthy.

28-29. Starling Marte & Corey Dickerson, OF, Marlins: The Marlins are hanging around in an unexpectedly mediocre NL East, but the salaries of both Marte and Dickerson, paired with some young outfield talent on the rise, could prompt the club to move either veteran. Dickerson, in particular, feels likely to be on the market given that the Fish have more depth at the outfield corners than in center. But Miami might not want to risk a qualifying offer for Marte, and the Marlins certainly don’t want to lose him for nothing when he reaches free agency at season’s end.

30. Kole Calhoun, OF, Diamondbacks: Calhoun is still on the shelf after undergoing hamstring surgery earlier this year, but he should be back a month or more before the deadline, giving him some time to prove his health to other teams. He was out to a nice start in ’21, hitting .292/.333/.479 in 51 plate appearances. Calhoun has an established track record as an above-average bat and quality defender in right field, though certainly a hamstring operation could impact both facets of his game. He’s earning $8MM this year, and his contract has a $9MM club option for the 2022 season. Given that option’s $2MM buyout, it’s effectively a net $7MM decision for the D-backs or an acquiring team.

31. Jacob Stallings, C, Pirates: Stallings isn’t as commonly cited as a trade candidate as some of his more well-known teammates, but he’ll be among the better catchers available on rebuilding clubs. He’s a roughly average bat wh0 gets there more through OBP than power, but a league-average bat at catcher is valuable when the average catcher is hitting .216/.298/.367 so far in 2021. Stallings is a .256/.331/.384 career hitter who’s out to a .240/.343/.421 start in 2021. He’s earning just $1.3MM in 2021, is controllable via arbitration through 2024, and is a premium defensive option. He’s also already 31 years old, so despite being controllable, the Pirates should have no problem moving him if a catcher-needy contender comes calling.

32. German Marquez, RHP, Rockies: While Gray and Story look like near-locks to be moved, Marquez is in a different situation. The 26-year-old is signed affordably through 2024, earning $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 before the Rockies (or another club) can decide between a $16MM club option or a $2.5MM buyout. He was absolutely blown up by the Giants last month, serving up eight runs and getting knocked out in the first inning, but he’s been excellent outside that one fluke appearance. Marquez has a 4.47 ERA overall but a 3.28 mark if you’re willing to overlook that career-worst day. Marquez whiffs hitters at an average or better rate, typically has a better-than-average walk rate (albeit not so far in 2021) and induces grounders north of 50 percent. He’s posted a combined 4.18 ERA since 2018 while calling Coors Field home. Most clubs would view him as a mid-rotation starter with the upside for more, and his affordable contract adds to the value.

33. Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers: Similar to Marquez, Turnbull is a controllable starter on a rebuilding team who doesn’t “have” to be moved this deadline. His recent no-hitter garnered him some national attention — deservedly so — but Turnbull has been a solid starter since the 2019 season. Over his past 245 1/3 innings, he has a 4.22 ERA and 3.68 FIP. He’s enjoying the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career so far and allowing less hard contact than he ever has. Turnbull won’t even be arbitration-eligible until this winter and is controlled through 2024, so the Tigers could certainly hold onto him. Then again, they got burned by doing just that with Boyd and Fulmer, so perhaps they’ll be more proactive this time around.

34-36. John Means (LHP), Anthony Santander (OF) & Trey Mancini (1B/OF), Orioles: Baltimore has some tougher decisions to face regarding the three players that figure to hold the most appeal to other teams. Means has been one of the game’s best pitchers in 2021 and is controlled through 2024, which indicates he could at least be part of the next competitive Orioles club. But he’s also already 28, and the Orioles know they won’t be competing just yet in 2022. Holding Means would be gambling that he’ll remain this effective into his age-30 and age-31 seasons — completely plausible but also inherently risky, as is the case with any pitcher. Mancini would be a natural trade candidate were he not the Orioles’ feel-good story of the season — the heart-and-soul of the clubhouse who triumphed over a frightening diagnosis of Stage 3 colon cancer. The optics of trading him wouldn’t be great, and the move would be felt immensely in the clubhouse. Santander drew plenty of offseason interest after a nice 2020 showing, and he’s another player who is controllable through 2024. He has power but clear OBP issues. Of the three, he’d probably be the easiest to part with should another club show interest.

37. Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds: I’m not convinced the Reds will be all-out sellers at this point — more on that below — but that was true in the offseason and they still at least listened to offers on Gray as they looked to cut payroll. Gray would require a pretty notable return given that he’s signed affordably through 2023 (the final year being a club option) and is once again delivering quality results. He’s missed some time but now has a 3.40 ERA with a well above-average strikeout rate and a slightly improved (but still below-average) walk rate. If it becomes clearer that the Reds will shop Gray and his contract, he’ll vault up this list in a hurry as one of the best arms who could conceivably be moved in July. That’s also true of the next entrant on the list.

38. Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds: Castellanos hit .305/.347/.611 in March and somehow got much better in May, hitting .409/.476/.667. At this point, the 29-year-old is hitting so well that it seems likely he’ll exercise the opt-out clause in his contract. If the Reds are out of the race, they’ll have to look at Castellanos as a rental they’ll likely lose. Considering the Reds’ efforts to shed payroll this winter, dropping the remainder of Castellanos’ $14MM salary while also adding some prospects in return might be a palatable gambit.

39. Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals: Kansas City’s recent tailspin has caused them to plummet in the AL Central standings. They’re in a tough spot with Duffy, as he’s a free agent at season’s end who was enjoying a dominant start to the season before hitting the injured list. Duffy is a homegrown product who’s already signed an extension once and has somewhat famously declared, “Bury me a Royal” in response to past trade rumors surrounding him. The Royals are trying to move toward a more competitive cycle and surely want him to be a part of that. Kansas City, perhaps more than any other club, is loyal to its core players and resistant toward trading veterans for prospects. At the same time, interest in Duffy will be strong if he’s healthy. They could conceivably trade him in July then try to re-sign him in November, but this sort of move isn’t really GM Dayton Moore’s style. Duffy will be in demand, but I could just as easily see the Royals signing him to an extension.

40. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Diamondbacks: It won’t be easy to unload Bumgarner’s contract after his poor showing in 2020, but he’s shown some signs of rebounding in a bizarre 2021 season. Bumgarner has been rocked for five or six earned runs in five of his 11 starts — his first three outings and his two most recent ones. The interim six starts? Bumgarner looked like the 2014 version of himself, hurling 34 innings of 1.32 ERA ball with a 39-to-6 K/BB ratio. His average fastball velocity is up three miles per hour after last year’s dip to 88.3 mph, which has to be encouraging for the D-backs and others. Still, Bumgarner is owed the balance of this year’s $19MM salary (about $12.5MM) plus salaries of $23MM, $23MM and $14MM from 2022-24. The D-backs would need to eat some cash or take back a contract to make things work, and the financial component of any such trade only further muddies the actual return in terms of young talent.

Others to Watch (* = Currently on injured list)

Angels: Jose Iglesias, Steve Cishek, Tony Watson, Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana*, Junior Guerra, Kurt Suzuki

Cubs: Zach Davies, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

D-backs: Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard*, Josh Reddick

Mariners: Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, Drew Steckenrider*, Keynan Middleton, Rafael Montero

Marlins: Adam Duvall, Anthony Bass

Nationals: Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Harrison, Jon Lester, Starlin Castro

Orioles: Matt Harvey, Paul Fry, Maikel Franco, Pedro Severino, Shawn Armstrong, Tanner Scott

Pirates: Colin Moran*, Trevor Cahill*, Mitch Keller, Chris Stratton, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault*

Rangers: Joely Rodriguez, Mike Foltynewicz, Brock Holt, Charlie Culberson, Khris Davis

Reds: Luis Castillo, Tyler Naquin

Rockies: Daniel Bard, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens

Royals: Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Greg Holland, Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, Jarrod Dyson, Ervin Santana

Tigers: Wilson Ramos, JaCoby Jones, Niko Goodrum, Jose Cisnero, Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario

Twins: Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Matt Shoemaker, Taylor Rogers

General Notes

–As the deadline looms closer, the viability of sell-offs from disappointing, expected contenders improves. It’s tempting to jam the list full of Twins after two disastrous months, but it’s hard to see them selling controllable players when most of their core is intact into 2022 (and well beyond, in many cases). It’s similarly hard to see them climbing back into the race, but still I wouldn’t expect much beyond the impending free agents, and perhaps an increasingly expensive reliever like Taylor Rogers.

–The same holds true for the Nationals. While there was plenty of speculation on Max Scherzer earlier this month, it’s not clear he’ll be made available. Teams would certainly be interested in a pitcher of his caliber if the Nationals were to sell. But the Nats, of all teams, are familiar with how a team’s record through Memorial Day isn’t reflective of where they’ll be at season’s end. The Nats are a woeful seven games under .500, but they’re still only six games out of first in a surprisingly feeble NL East. Washington generally hasn’t been keen on aggressively shopping their core players in recent years, so it’s not a given they’d look to move Scherzer if they remain on the periphery of contention.

–There’s been plenty of speculation on the Cubs, particularly surrounding Kris Bryant, but at eight games over .500, they’re unlikely to trade any of their core players even on the brink of free agency. A prolonged losing streak would likely bring up rumors surrounding all of the above-mentioned veterans, with Bryant the likeliest to change hands based both on his massive start to the season and his monster rebound effort at the plate.

–Few picked the Royals to contend in 2021, but that was their aim, and general manager Dayton Moore has made clear that he wants to shift his focus to winning in the here and now. They didn’t sign Carlos Santana and Mike Minor to multi-year deals simply to flip them. Either veteran could draw interest — Santana, in particular, has raked — but the Royals likely view their window to contend as just starting to open. Prospects like Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic and the ballyhooed Bobby Witt Jr. could all be on the big league roster in early 2022. It’s hard to see them trading many pieces, and even Duffy was a borderline inclusion on this list. It wouldn’t at all be a surprise were Moore to come out and flatly say he won’t trade the left-hander.

–The Reds are closer to the cellar than first place in the NL Central as of this writing. The club walked a fine line this past winter, dumping salary without really adding any win-now pieces in hopes that a strong offense and a quality core of bats would help them contend in 2021. That hasn’t been the case just yet, due in part to the struggles of Luis Castillo. The Reds never said it, but it’s hard to imagine owner Bob Castellini didn’t push the front office to shed payroll based on their offseason. If they’re a ways back this summer, any of their veterans on notable salaries could surface as legitimate trade candidates.

The Blue Jays Other Key Free Agent Signing Is Paying Off

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The Blue Jays drew plenty of headlines over the offseason for their reported interest in seemingly every free agent available. It took until late January, but the club rewarded the fanbase’s patience by landing premier center fielder George Springer on a six-year, $150MM guarantee. Various injuries have mostly kept Springer off the field to this point, but the Jays are getting a ton of production from their other key position player acquisition: Marcus Semien.

Semien was one of the more difficult free agents to value last winter. He’d been a solid regular from 2015-18, combining consistently league average offense with strong shortstop defense and durability. The 2019 season brought an offensive breakout, with Semien unexpectedly hitting .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs. He didn’t follow up on that incredible year during the shortened 2020 season, though. Semien got off a terrible start, and while he finished the year on a hot streak, his overall .223/.305/.374 line was closer to his average hitting from 2015-18 than his fantastic numbers the year before.

With some uncertainty about his true offensive talent level and teams curtailing free agent spending on the heels of the shortened season, Semien elected to take a prove-it deal with the Jays. He signed a one-year, $18MM guarantee with Toronto just a few days after the club added Springer, agreeing to slide to second base in deference to Bo Bichette in the process. In the early going, it looks like a great decision for both player and team.

Semien is off to a career-best start at the plate in 2021. The 30-year-old is hitting .288/.355/.545 over his first 220 plate appearances. He’s completely regained his 2019 power stroke, posting a personal-high .258 ISO (slugging minus batting average), while his thirteen home runs is tied for sixth in MLB.

Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of that production seems to be the result of him simply hitting the ball harder more consistently. Semien is barreling up 8.5% of his batted balls this year, per Statcast- a better than average mark he’s only ever matched in the aforementioned 2019 season. His average exit velocity is up to a career-best 90.5 MPH, a more than 4 MPH improvement over his figure from last season. He’s also gotten more pull-oriented on his fly balls. The improved thump is no coincidence, since pulled flies lead to the most power-friendly outcomes for a hitter (the league is slugging 1.474 on such batted balls this year).

Whether Semien can sustain something like this level of production all year is still uncertain. The increase in power has come with an uptick in strikeouts to a carer-high 26.4%, and his contact rate is down more than five percentage points from that 2019 campaign. It’s also worth considering the Jays home environment. The team spent the first two months of the season at their Spring Training complex in Dunedin, which, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com recently pointed out (Twitter link), played very hitter-friendly. With the Jays moving to Buffalo (and perhaps eventually Toronto) over the next couple months, Semien’s ability to continue hitting for this kind of power is worth monitoring.

The Blue Jays have already gotten plenty of return on their investment in Semien, but there’s much at stake for both in the near future. At 25-24, Toronto will need to play better to stick in the AL postseason picture. Semien, as an impending free agent, would be a logical trade candidate if the Jays fall out of the race. (A midseason deal would remove the possibility of a team making a qualifying offer, which would only improve Semien’s market value). The upcoming free agent shortstop class has drawn plenty of attention, with Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Carlos Correa all hitting the market. Semien’s older than those four, but he’s also outperforming them all to this point- with the added bonus of proving he can transition to second base if needed without issue. In the process, he’s setting himself up for another fascinating trip to the open market.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers

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We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.

  1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
  2. Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
  3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers:  The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
  4. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ’pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
  5. Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
  6. Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
  7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
  8. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
  9. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
  10. Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds:  After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
  11. Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
  12. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
  13. JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
  14. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
  15. Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
  16. Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.

As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Position Players

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Minor league contracts don’t generally draw much of a reaction over the course of a baseball offseason, with some rare exceptions. Everyone loves to see an out-of-the-blue comeback story on a non-guaranteed arrangement, but most minor league deals of any note are injured veterans, struggling former prospects or fringe big leaguers who have never really solidified their status as a contributor at the game’s top level. Every year, however, a handful of these no-risk investments produce solid returns.

We’re about a quarter through the 2021 season, so let’s check in on a handful of non-guaranteed pacts that have already proven to be wise investments for their clubs.

  1. Tyler Naquin, OF, Reds: Naquin’s signing was met with a collective yawn, but one Ohio club’s leftovers have turned into another’s treasure. The former Indians first-rounder has mashed his way into a regular role in Cincinnati, raking at a .265/.346/.530 clip through 133 plate appearances. Naquin parlayed a strong spring and a March injury to Shogo Akiyama into an Opening Day roster spot, but he’s now fourth on the team in plate appearances and third in wRC+ at 135 (min. 20 PAs). He’s hitting so much better than struggling center fielder Nick Senzel that Cincinnati hasn’t hesitated to move Senzel to the infield in the wake of Joey Votto’s injury, creating more playing time for Naquin. This doesn’t appear to be a mere small-sample fluke, either. Naquin ranks in the 95th percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and has similarly strong percentile rankings in hard-hit rate (84th), xwOBA (89th), xSLG (93rd) and barrel rate (90th). He’s also controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration. For an Indians club that has gotten virtually no production from its outfield over the past two seasons, watching Naquin’s start in 2021 has to sting, even if they’re happy for their former prospect on a personal level.
  2. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron’s ability to hit hasn’t really been in question since his 2014 MLB debut, but injuries have dogged him in recent years. Fresh off a season-ending knee surgery in 2020, Cron inked a non-guaranteed pact with the Rockies, made the club out of Spring Training and has unsurprisingly emerged as their primary first baseman. He’s out to an excellent start, hitting .300/.397/.500 in 116 plate appearances. Cron missed 10 days with a back strain and, unlike Naquin, is a free agent at season’s end, so he didn’t grab the top spot on this list. Still, he’s been a bright spot for the Rockies and could give them a summer trade chip if he can stay healthy. It’s still somewhat puzzling that the Tigers didn’t bring him back, given how poorly things have gone at first base in Detroit, but perhaps Cron simply liked the opportunity presented in Colorado better.
  3. Matt Duffy, 3B, Cubs: Duffy began with his MLB career with a stellar year for the 2015 Giants, in which he hit .295/.334/.428 and finished second behind current teammate Kris Bryant in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He never really followed up on that debut effort, though, as underperformance and injuries knocked him off track over the next two seasons. Duffy rebounded to play fairly well with the Rays in 2018 but wound up released after a difficult 2019 campaign. The veteran infielder spent 2020 at the Yankees alternate training site. This offseason, Duffy attracted interest from a few clubs in a coaching and/or front office capacity, but the Cubs offered him a chance to reinvigorate his playing career and have been rewarded for doing so. Duffy made the Opening Day roster and has come out with a .281/.375/.360 line over his first 104 plate appearances, his top offensive output since the aforementioned rookie season. The right-handed hitter isn’t a power threat, but he’s an above-average defensive third baseman with a good approach who makes plenty of contact. Duffy solidifying the hot corner has allowed Bryant to help out an otherwise shaky, inconsistent outfield.
  4. Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics: There’s something about Lowrie and the A’s that just clicks every time he dons the green and gold. In his third stint with the team after missing practically all of the 2019-20 seasons as a Met, Lowrie is improbably hitting .254/.329/.394 through 158 plate appearances. With offense down around the league and a cavernous home park, that’s good for a healthy 108 wRC+. The veteran switch-hitter’s bat has cooled since a torrid start to the season, but the early return on his no-risk minor league pact has been strong.
  5. Charlie Culberson, INF/OF, Rangers: A popular utility player wherever he goes, Culberson is well on his way to endearing himself to the Rangers’ fanbase. Through his first 97 plate appearances, the 32-year-old is hitting .264/.316/.429 with three homers. Culberson has made one-off appearances at second base, shortstop and in left field, but the bulk of his playing time has come at third base.
  6. Pablo Sandoval, INF, Braves: Atlanta fans might’ve groaned when the Braves brought the Panda back on another minor league deal, but Sandoval has thrived as a pinch-hitter and seldom-used bench bat. Sandoval has come to the plate as a pinch-hitter 26 times and homered in four of those plate appearances. On the whole, he’s hitting .250/.372/.583 through 43 plate appearances. No one expects the former All-Star to continue at this pace, and you can certainly argue that since Sandoval is effectively a dedicated pinch-hitter, this isn’t an ideal use of a roster spot. Still, it’s hard to argue with four pinch-hit dingers, and we’re talking about minor league deals here, after all.

We’ll check in on this year’s crop of minor league signees a few months from now, as it’s quite likely that we’ll see the tides turn on some of these (and other) contracts. A hot streak from Travis Shaw in Milwaukee could quickly make his deal look all the more prudent, and Connor Joe is out to a hot start with the Rox in a return from last year’s cancer diagnosis, which is a feel-good story in and of itself. At least through the season’s 25 percent mark, however, this group of bats is paying dividends for the teams that rolled the dice.

MLB Trade Rumors Has A New Agency Database

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We have revamped our agency database!  The database is now mobile-friendly, so you can search for players’ agencies from your phone.  You can search by player name or by agency.

The universe of players in this database is anyone who played in the Majors in the previous three completed seasons, which right now means 2018-20.  Once this season ends, it’ll become 2019-21.  We have agency info for many players, and we’ll continue to do our best to keep it up-to-date.  If you work for an agency and one of your players is blank or incorrect, please drop us a line at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

You may also recall that in October, I decided to stop doing posts on agency changes on MLBTR, with the exception of significant national stories.  We are still monitoring agency-related news and we will be entering changes into the database.

The agency database is available for all MLBTR readers.  Check it out today!

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Which Contract Year Players Are Performing The Best?

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You’ve seen our 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, but which contract year players are actually performing the best at this point in the young season?  These are the top 2021-22 free agents ranked by FanGraphs WAR.  Note: I’m using Baseball-Reference’s excellent Span Finder frequently in this post.  For the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents, click here.

Hitters

  • Kris Bryant – 1.8 WAR, 180 wRC+ in 124 PA.  As good as Bryant has been, this level of production has plenty of precedent for him.  He’s hit more than eight home runs in a 29-game span many times, including 12 in a stretch in 2019.  It’s not going to be hard to make a case for a huge free agent contract for the 29-year-old Bryant, who may be traded by the Cubs in July.
  • J.D. Martinez – 1.8 WAR, 215 wRC+ in 126 PA.  Like Bryant, the odd 2020 season is the only recent blip in Martinez’s career.  As Boston’s DH continues to light up Statcast, the question becomes whether he should opt out of the remaining $19.375MM on his contract for 2022, which will represent his age-34 season.  The universal DH would help.
  • Buster Posey – 1.4 WAR, 218 wRC+ in 78 PA.  The last time Posey hit seven home runs in 20 games?  Late in the 2014 season, when he finished sixth in the MVP voting.  He hit seven home runs in 114 games in his previous season in 2019.  Clearly, a year off did the 34-year-old Posey good.  A multiyear deal is materializing for the Giants legend.
  • Nick Castellanos – 1.4 WAR, 166 wRC+ in 114 PA.  Castellanos’ early mashing this year is reminiscent of his brief stint with the Cubs, in which he posted a 154 wRC+ in 225 PA.  If he keeps it up, the 29-year-old right fielder might find it easy to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM left on his contract with the Reds after this season.
  • Starling Marte – 1.0 WAR, 151 wRC+ in 70 PA.  Things were looking up for Marte until he fractured a rib a couple weeks ago, potentially knocking him out until June.  Assuming a healthy return, trade partners will begin knocking on the Marlins’ door at that point.
  • Other impending free agents playing well in the early going: Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz, Chris Taylor, Josh Harrison, and Corey Dickerson.

Pitchers

  • Clayton Kershaw – 1.3 WAR, 2.95 ERA in 39 2/3 innings.  Even after a clunker Tuesday against the Cubs, Kershaw leads free agent pitchers in WAR.  Is there any way he’d leave the Dodgers heading into his age-34 season?  Max Scherzer is another elder statesman future Hall of Fame pitcher who is off to an excellent start in his contract year.
  • Matt Barnes – 1.0 WAR, 2.12 ERA in 17 innings.  Generally known for high walk rates, Barnes has posted an excellent 5.1 BB% so far this year.  He’s actually had bouts of strong control before, with similar stretches in 2016 and ’17.  He’s also whiffed a phenomenal 49.2% of batters in 2021.  Barnes got off to a great start in 2019 as well, punching out half the batters he faced and walking only 6% over his first 16 games.  He’d go on to walk more than 15% of batters over the remainder of that season.  The point is that Barnes’ start could hardly be better, but these 17 innings do not prove he’s become a completely different pitcher.  At any rate, he’s positioned for one of the better contracts for free agent relievers.  Mark Melancon, Craig Kimbrel, Kendall Graveman, and Ian Kennedy are also getting it done in the early going.
  • Danny Duffy – 1.0 WAR, 0.60 ERA in 30 innings.  Duffy’s velocity is the highest it’s been since 2016.  His peripherals are strong, though he does owe some of his success to a .247 batting average on balls in play and a 6.1% home run per flyball rate.  As you might expect, this has been the best five-start stretch of Duffy’s entire 197-start career.  Duffy, 32, once tweeted, “Bury me a Royal” in response to December 2017 trade rumors.  So you’d think the Royals will find a way to work out a new deal with him.
  • Lance Lynn – 0.9 WAR, 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings.  Lynn missed a couple weeks with a trapezius strain, but before that he whiffed 21 batters against zero walks in a pair of starts.  Lynn turns 34 next week, but if he remains healthy for the rest of the season he’s setting up for at least a three-year deal.
  • Carlos Rodon – 0.9 WAR, 0.72 ERA in 25 innings.  Lynn’s rotation-mate with the White Sox has been one of the offseason’s best signings at just $3MM.  He tossed a no-hitter against the Indians and has given up only two runs all year.  Among those with at least 20 innings, Rodon ranks eighth in baseball with a 37.9 K%.  He’d never previously whiffed batters at this rate over any prior four-start stretch.  Rodon’s 94.9 mile per hour average velocity is the best of his career, and he won’t turn 29 until December.  With a clean bill of health, Rodon could be one of the winter’s most intriguing free agent starting pitchers.
  • Kevin Gausman – 0.8 WAR, 2.04 ERA in 39 2/3 innings.  Gausman, 30, is underlining the fact that his excellent 2020 season for the Giants was no fluke.  In the era of five-inning starts, Gausman ranks fifth in MLB at 6.53 per outing.  Like Lynn, he’ll come free of a qualifying offer.
  • Anthony DeSclafani – 0.8 WAR, 2.00 ERA in 36 innings.  Of the six pitchers who have made starts for the Giants so far this year, five of them will be free agents after the season.  Four of them have an ERA of 2.04 or lower.  The Giants appear to have another successful reclamation project on their hands in DeSclafani.
  • Several other impending free agent starters currently sport a sub-3.00 ERA: Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, Alex Wood, Marcus Stroman, Michael Pineda, Trevor Bauer, and Wade Miley.

MLBTR Poll: Do You Believe In The Giants?

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The Padres beat the Dodgers in extras last night in yet another affirmation of baseball’s hottest rivalry, but there’s another team that sits between the Padres and the division-leading Dodgers out west: the San Francisco Giants.

At 14-8, the San Francisco Giants somewhat surprisingly sit tied with their partners across the bay in Oakland for the second-best winning percentage in baseball. It seems like every year we expect the Giants to bottom out, but under President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi, the Giants put out competitive squads. And yet, they haven’t finished above .500 since 2016. They were 29-31 in 2020, just barely missing out on the final playoff spot in an expanded field.

They’re off to a fantastic start in 2021. Despite a lack of star power, the Giants pitching staff boasts a 2.94 ERA, second only to the Padres league-wide. By fielding independent pitching, the Giants allow 3.59 runs per nine innings, and while that suggests the ball may be bouncing in their favor early on, that’s still the seventh-best mark in the Majors. They’re a top-10 team in limiting free passes with a 7.9 percent walk rate and striking out an above-average 24.9 percent of hitters. Better yet, they’re keeping the ball on the ground at a league-best 49.9 percent groundball rate.

Coming into the season, a rotation pool of Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Aaron Sanchez, and Logan Webb wasn’t likely first on Pitching Ninja’s teams to watch, especially not in a division with the star-powered rotations in San Diego and Los Angeles. The Giants’ group, by comparison, had former stars, late-developers, and injury perennials. Four turns through the five-man cycle, however, the Giants starters are second overall with a 2.46 ERA, fifth with a 3.16 FIP, and second by volume with 127 2/3 innings. They’re also limiting hard contact with a 28.6 percent hard hit percentage, tied for second overall.

Is regression coming to Oracle Park? They’ve benefited from the seventh-best batting average on balls in play (.256 BABIP), they’ve been best in the game at stranding runners with a 85.2 percent left on base rate, and they’re tied for third with a 9.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. It’s pretty early to know how “earned” those rankings are.

While the pitching has been about as good as they might have hoped, the offense actually has some room to grow. As a group, their 89 wRC+ is a bottom-10 mark overall, despite a top-10 .176 team ISO. Like the pitching staff, the offense shares a .256 BABIP mark, fourth-lowest among offenses. Mike Yastrzemski’s potential oblique injury could be a blow, and while it’s been great seeing Buster Posey and Evan Longoria turn back the clock to the tune of 150 wRC+ and 160 wRC+, respectively, they are going to slow down.

This is our third season of Zaidi’s Giants. He can claim a number of savvy, low-key development wins like the star turns from Yaz and Gausman, but while they’ve sniffed around the edges of some significant free agents, they’ve largely let the big-ticket names head elsewhere. With the Giants off to the races in what’s sure to be a competitive division, will Zaidi be more aggressive on the trade market if they stay in the playoff picture?

Will they stay in the playoff picture? Are you bullish or bearish on the Giants’ hot start? April is a time for belief in baseball, so let’s see what y’all believe about the Giants.

(Poll link for app users)

Do You Believe In The Giants?
No 30.33% (2,747 votes)
Yes 24.22% (2,194 votes)
I believe they'll fall away after the All-Star break. 18.16% (1,645 votes)
I believe Farhan Zaidi knows what's up. 14.09% (1,276 votes)
I believe they'll be a playoff team. 4.57% (414 votes)
I believe in their pitching. 4.55% (412 votes)
I believe Kevin Gausman is a true "Ace." 2.13% (193 votes)
I believe in Johnny Cueto. 1.29% (117 votes)
I believe in their offense. 0.65% (59 votes)
Total Votes: 9,057

MLBTR Poll: Struggling 2020 Playoff Teams

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This season has not started in ideal fashion for the majority of last year’s 16-team playoff field. While the Dodgers, Brewers and Athletics boast terrific records at roughly the 20-game mark, everybody else who qualified for the postseason in 2020 is, at best, hovering around .500. Eight of those clubs currently have more losses than wins (we’ll get to them in a bit).

With a 162-game schedule instead of a 60-game slate, slumping teams have far more time to rebound from slow starts this season. On the other hand, only 10 clubs will make the playoffs in 2021, so teams can ill afford to dig early holes for themselves.

American League

Twins (2020 record: 36-24; 2021 record: 6-11):

  • The Twins are coming off an 0-4, COVID-interrupted road trip that came to a horrific end with a 13-12 loss Wednesday, when sloppy defense led to an extra-innings collapse against the A’s. Reliever Alex Colome – the Twins’ keynote bullpen acquisition of the offseason – took the loss, continuing a rough start to the year for him. Meanwhile, ace Kenta Maeda turned in his worst performance of the season (seven earned runs in three innings) and has only gotten past the 4 1/3-frame mark in one of his four starts. The Twins will likely need the Maeda of old back if they’re going to push for a third straight AL Central title, though Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda have helped pick up the slack in their rotation so far. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense hasn’t been a juggernaut (Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler and Andrelton Simmons have missed time with health issues), but Byron Buxton may be in the early stages of a breakthrough year at the plate and Nelson Cruz isn’t showing signs of slowing down.

Yankees (2020 record: 33-27; 2021 record: 6-11):

  • The Yankees were pegged as serious World Series contenders entering the season, but they have looked like bottom-feeders so far. What was supposed to be a high-powered offense has totaled the AL’s fewest runs and put up its second-worst wRC+, owing in part to the absence of injured 2020 home run king Luke Voit. The Yankees’ pitching has been much better than their hitting, but that’s largely thanks to the work of their bullpen – which hasn’t had many leads to protect. Gerrit Cole and, to a much lesser extent, Jordan Montgomery have carried their rotation, while offseason acquisitions Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon haven’t been all that effective coming off injuries, and Domingo German has struggled mightily in his return from a domestic violence suspension. The Yankees should get former ace Luis Severino back from Tommy John surgery during the summer, but there’s no telling how he’ll perform in the wake of two straight injury-wrecked seasons.

Blue Jays (2020 record: 32-28; 2021 record: 8-10):

  • The Jays have dealt with a rash of injuries to their pitching staff, including in their rotation – an area that could be a significant question mark even if everyone’s healthy. They have also had to go without their main offseason acquisition, center fielder George Springer, though he shouldn’t be far off from returning from a quad strain. To the Jays’ credit, they’ve essentially tread water thus far, and their plus-10 run differential does rank third in the AL.

Astros (2020 record: 29-31; 2021 record: 7-10):

  • The Astros sneaked into the playoffs last year with a sub-.500 record, though they still came within a game of reaching the World Series for the third time in four seasons. However, the team then got weaker in the offseason with the loss of Springer, whom it didn’t adequately replace, and was dealt another blow when starter Framber Valdez suffered a serious finger injury at the beginning of the spring. The Astros reacted by signing veteran Jake Odorizzi, who has delivered miserable results through his first two starts. Aside from Zack Greinke and Luis Garcia, Astros starters have not gotten the job done, while their bullpen has also been a letdown in the early going. Fortunately, even without Springer, a healthy version of Houston’s offense still brings plenty of firepower to the table.

Which of the above four AL teams do you believe has the best chance to rebound and make the playoffs? (Poll link for app users)

Which AL team is most likely to bounce back?
Yankees 44.97% (3,074 votes)
Blue Jays 20.66% (1,412 votes)
Twins 19.09% (1,305 votes)
Astros 15.27% (1,044 votes)
Total Votes: 6,835

National League

Braves (2020 record: 35-25; 2021 record: 8-10)

  • The back-to-back-to-back NL East champions have fallen behind in April, thanks in part to injuries to starters Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Drew Smyly. The Braves overcame a series of health problems in their staff last year to earn a trip to the NLCS, of course, but an elite offense led the way then. Their attack has been above average again this year, though Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are their only regulars who have offered star-caliber production. Conversely, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Travis d’Arnaud have gotten off to brutal starts at the plate.

Cubs (2020 record: 34-26; 2021 record: 8-9)

  • The most significant move the Cubs executed over the winter was one that weakened them, at least in the short term. The team said goodbye to Yu Darvish, sending the 2020 NL Cy Young finalist to San Diego for fellow righty Zach Davies and a few prospects. Cutting costs was part of the motivation for that trade and in general when it came to the Cubs’ offseason; as a result, many were bearish on their chances heading into 2021. So far, the preseason pessimism has been warranted. The Cubs have not hit much, evidenced by bottom four National League rankings in runs and wRC+, and their pitching staff owns the NL’s third-highest ERA. Of their starters, only Jake Arrieta and Alec Mills have managed to post an ERA south of 5.00 so far. Surprisingly, the club’s best pitcher has been closer Craig Kimbrel, who’s back in dominant form after he was largely written off before the season.

Cardinals (2020 record: 30-28; 2021 record: 8-10):

  • The Cardinals pulled off one of the ultimate headline-grabbing moves of the offseason in acquiring star third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. The hope then was that Arenado would lift an offense that finished 2020 with a less-than-stellar wRC+ of 93. Arenado has indeed notched solid production so far, yet the Cardinals’ wRC+ sits at an almost identical 94 through 18 games. Meantime, the bottom-line results of the Cardinals’  starters have been a far bigger problem, as their rotation – which is missing the injured Miles Mikolas – has recorded the NL’s fifth-worst ERA.

Marlins (2020 record: 31-29; 2021 record: 8-9):

Which of the above four NL teams do you believe has the best chance to rebound and make the playoffs? (Poll link for app users)

Which NL team is most likely to bounce back?
Braves 69.72% (4,849 votes)
Cardinals 21.47% (1,493 votes)
Cubs 5.65% (393 votes)
Marlins 3.16% (220 votes)
Total Votes: 6,955

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

Who will sign for more total dollars?
Carlos Correa 53.24% (2,545 votes)
Trevor Story 46.76% (2,235 votes)
Total Votes: 4,780
Who will sign for a higher average annual value?
Trevor Story 55.84% (2,480 votes)
Carlos Correa 44.16% (1,961 votes)
Total Votes: 4,441
Who will be the better player over the next seven years?
Trevor Story 63.09% (2,879 votes)
Carlos Correa 36.91% (1,684 votes)
Total Votes: 4,563
Show all

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