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Never On Top, But Still The Champs

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 The Washington Nationals have had more time than your average champ to take a bow after their World Series victory last October. Their win in Game Seven over the Astros more than seven months ago stands as the most recent non-exhibition game, and though Major League Baseball continues to bob and weave their way back to play amidst this pandemic, the Nats are still the champs until a new one is crowned. Luckily for baseball fans, Davey Martinez’s crew in Washington certainly made the most of their first World Series victory from a lore perspective. Their turnaround after starting 19-31 has been the most often trumpeted fact from their run to the top, but there are plenty more factoids that add flavor to the Nats’ first championship.

For example, as their Twitter account graciously reminds us, they’re “The Greatest Comeback Team In MLB History” after reversing an in-game deficit five times when facing elimination in the postseason. Then there’s Ryan Zimmerman hitting the first home run in their World Series history 15 years after the Nats made him the first-ever draft pick. Howie Kendrick certainly has a story to share, as does Stephen Strasburg, as does, believe it or not, Gerardo Parra, who bonded the clubhouse around – of all things – a South Korean children’s song.

They also became the first team to win a World Series via four road wins, they took out the Astros just weeks before news broke of the sign-stealing scandal, and they coined multiple slogans along the way, like “Stay In The Fight,” “Bumpy Roads Lead To Beautiful Places,” and “Go 1-0 Every Day.”

But despite the rings, the accolades, and the lore aplenty, there’s at least one thing the Nationals did not accomplish. The 2019 Nats became just the second team in the Wild Card Era to win the World Series without spending a single day in first place (2003 Marlins). 

Of course, the introduction of the wild card in 1995 makes this fun fact possible. Since the single wild card was brought into play, we have 25 seasons of wild card history. Seven wild cards survived the gauntlet of the playoffs to win it all: 1997 Marlins, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2014 Giants, 2019 Nationals (that’s it, right?). While the run in the early aughts gave the wild card some serious juju, the shine had worn off a bit in recent years. Still, each of the past two decades brought a 30% championship rate for wild card entrants. 

Meanwhile, World Series champions on the whole over the past 25 years have spent an average of 95.88 games in first. Of course, we’re dealing with a small sample size here and a fairly large spread. A standard deviation of ~54 games means that roughly 95% of our champs should have spent somewhere between 41 and 150 games in first, meaning there really are many ways to skin this cat – especially since more than a quarter of World Series champs fell beyond those bounds (thanks a lot, sample size). 

The 2016 Cubs came pretty close to running the table, leading the NL Central for 154 games before capping a season for the ages. They were outdone – White Sox fans will not be surprised to hear – by their crosstown rival. The White Sox were in first place for 161 games during the 2005 season before sweeping the Astros. They did, in fairness, share first place with the Tigers and Twins for (small) portions of the season. The ’02 Angels and ’97 Marlins, meanwhile, barely managed to escape our list by spending 12 and 11 days in first, respectively. 

So while the Nationals had a season for the ages in 2019, there’s yet more for this team to accomplish (if/when play resumes for the 2020 season). The Braves would seem to rule the roost, but the Phillies held a share of the NL East lead for 60 days of the 2019 season, and the Mets took the top spot for a cool 14 days. The Marlins’ 105-loss season didn’t share a ton in common with the Nats’ by the end of the year, but this fact they shared: neither managed to lead the division for even a day.

From The 31st Round To Three Gold Gloves (And $53.5MM)

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It isn’t often that a 31st-round draft pick even makes it to the big leagues, let alone enjoys a very successful Major League career.  Jake Arrieta, Aaron Judge, Chris Chambliss, Cecil Fielder, Andrew Benintendi, Brad Ziegler, and Hunter Renfroe are some of the most prominent 31st-rounders chosen over the years….except none actually signed after being drafted with these picks, as the selecting teams were taking long-shot fliers to see if they could entice these prospects into starting their pro careers early.

In terms of “proper” 31st-rounders, as in players who actually did sign after being drafted, there are a few notable names in the game today: Brewers reliever Brent Suter, Mariners reliever Matt Magill, and Red Sox catcher Jett Bandy (still in Boston’s organization as a non-roster invitee).  Plus, there is the other noteworthy active 31st-rounder, one who is on pace to become the best 31st-round pick in baseball history.

If you will, the Mount Rushmore of 31st-round selections…

  • Jay Howell, who posted a 3.34 ERA over 844 2/3 innings from 1980-1994.  Howell was a stalwart closer and setup man for many teams, including the 1988 World Series champion Dodgers.
  • Pedro Feliciano, who posted a 3.33 ERA over 383 2/3 innings in parts of nine seasons from 2002-13, all with the Mets.  At his peak, Feliciano was a workhorse who led the league in appearances each year from 2008-10.
  • Travis Hafner, longtime Indians slugger.  “Pronk” hit a whopping .273/.376/.498 with 213 homers (132 wRC+, 134 OPS+) over 4782 career plate appearances from 2002-13, with all but 369 of those PA coming in a Cleveland uniform.

And finally, there’s Kevin Kiermaier.  Hafner and Kiermaier are easily the most accomplished position players to ever come out of the 31st round, with Hafner holding an edge in career fWAR (22 to 17.5) over the Rays outfielder, though Hafner also has the benefit of 583 more career games.  As such, there’s still time for Kiermaier to overtake Hafner as — cue fanfare — The Best 31st-Rounder In Baseball History, which was a wholly unlikely scenario when Tampa Bay selected Kiermaier out of Parkland College in the 2010 draft.

Kiermaier made pretty quick progress through the Rays’ farm system, reaching Triple-A Durham by 2012 (albeit for just a four-game cup of coffee) and then hitting .295/.362/.431 over 571 combined plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2013.  That performance earned Kiermaier his first ticket to the majors, in somewhat unusual circumstances.  Kiermaier made his MLB debut as a defensive substitute in the ninth inning of in the 163rd game of the Rays’ 2013 season, a tiebreaker with the Rangers to determine a wild card berth.  Tampa Bay won that game and then the actual AL Wild Card game over Cleveland, with Kiermaier again making an appearance as a late-game placement.

For a Rays franchise that has long been creative in trying to find roster advantages, using a postseason roster spot on the untested Kiermaier was perfectly logical.  After all, who better to serve as a defensive sub than the best defensive player in the organization?  (An honor officially conferred on Kiermaier after the 2013 season.)  While Kiermaier’s minor league numbers were good if unspectacular, he quickly gained notice due to his glovework, which has continued to be the case throughout his MLB career.  He is a three-time Gold Glove winner, as well as the winner of both a Platinum Glove and Fielding Bible Award in 2015.

Since the start of the 2014 season and over 4966 2/3 innings in center field, Kiermaier has 112 Defensive Runs Saved and a 14.8 UZR/150.  Among all other players in baseball with at least 4500 innings at a single position, only Andrelton Simmons is ahead of Kiermaier in both stat categories, with Mookie Betts also leading all players in UZR/150.  Betts’ excellence has come in right field rather than the more demanding center field position, and while I’m not going to make a claim that the amazing Simmons isn’t anything less than the best defensive player of his era, Simmons did accumulate his 144 DRS with the benefit of more than 2000 more innings at shortstop than Kiermaier has played in center field.

Though Simmons had a head start by beginning his career during the 2012 season, that big innings gap underscores Kiermaier’s issues in staying on the field.  From 2016-18, Kiermaier played in only 291 of 486 games due to a fractured left hand, a hip fracture, and a torn right thumb ligament.  He also had a brief injured list stint last season due to a thumb sprain, but overall, 2019 was a pretty healthy season for Kiermaier, as he appeared in 129 games and made 480 plate appearances.

All of these injuries during what would have been prime years surely haven’t helped Kiermaier’s consistency at the plate.  Over 847 PA in 2018-19, Kiermaier was a decidedly below-average hitter, batting just .223/.280/.386 with 21 homers.  These recent struggles dropped Kiermaier to a 98 OPS+ over his career, after he had managed a 107 OPS+ through his first 1734 PA.

To be clear, if Kiermaier is able to hit at even a 98 OPS+ level while still maintaining his superb defense and strong baserunning, he is still a major asset to Tampa Bay’s team.  “Asset” always carries a different meaning to the Rays than to most teams, however, given how Tampa is consistently trying to manage one of the game’s lowest payrolls.  It is also particularly applicable to Kiermaier given his status as one of the few higher-paid players on the roster.

Prior to the 2017 season, Kiermaier signed a six-year extension worth $53.5MM in guaranteed money.  The deal covered Kiermaier’s four arbitration years (he was Super Two eligible) and his first two free agent seasons, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023 that could add another $10.5MM to the deal.  It was a rare instance of the Rays making a sizeable long-term investment in a player; Kiermaier’s deal is still the second-largest contract in franchise history, behind only the Rays’ 2012 extension with Evan Longoria.

At the time of the Kiermaier extension, the Rays were betting that they were gaining cost certainty on a borderline five-tool talent, given the hitting promise Kiermaier showed over his first three seasons.  Fangraphs’ value metric calculates that Kiermaier has been worth $51.1MM from 2017-19, already almost matching the cost of his extension, though he wouldn’t have earned close to that amount via the normal arbitration process.  In a world where Kiermaier doesn’t sign that extension, it’s possible that the always cost-conscious Rays might have simply non-tendered or traded Kiermaier (especially given his injury history) at some point rather than pay his increasing arbitration salaries.

Kiermaier only just turned 30 years old in April, so he can truly get the injury bug behind him, there’s still plenty of time to build on what has already been a very impressive career.  Becoming an elite-level center field defender is an incredible accomplishment for any player — for a 31st-round pick, it is downright astounding.  Kiermaier’s success stands out all the more in a year that will see the amateur draft reduced to five rounds, as who knows how much potential talent could fall through the cracks among the hundreds of players that would have normally been drafted over 35 additional rounds.  While a Kiermaier-esque success story is quite rare, it’s unfortunate that a possible next Kiermaier (or a next Hafner, or next Feliciano, or next Howell) might not even get a chance to get their career underway.

The Other Chris Archer Trades

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Pirates right-hander Chris Archer has been among the most prominent major leaguers in the news this week. Archer just underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, meaning he won’t pitch until at least 2021. It also means his tenure could be done in Pittsburgh, which will have to decide between an $11MM club option and a $250K buyout next winter.

Archer’s surgery came as the latest disastrous development during his time with the Pirates, who made an ill-fated trade with the Rays to acquire him in July 2018. For the sake of Pirates fans, who have witnessed Archer struggle mightily in their favorite team’s uniform and have seen two of the players their club gave up flourish as Rays, we’re not going to recap that trade for the umpteenth time. But we are going to look back at other trades involving Archer. Long before he became a Pirate, Archer was part of a couple other notable deals.

First off, Archer entered the pros as a 17-year-old and a fifth-round pick of the Indians in 2006. Archer struggled to prevent runs as part of the Indians’ system through 2008, and after that season, the club traded him, righty Jeff Stevens and lefty John Gaub to the Cubs for infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa. Cleveland didn’t get a full season out of DeRosa, whom the team flipped to the Cardinals in June 2009 after he batted a solid .270/.342/.457 in 314 plate appearances and 71 games as an Indian.

What of the Cubs’ return for DeRosa? Stevens combined for 37 1/3 innings of 6.27 ERA ball as a Cub from 2009-11. Gaub made even less of an impact in Chicago, with which he threw the only 2 2/3 innings of his career in 2011. Archer never appeared in the majors with the organization, but he turned around his fortunes as a Cubs minor leaguer and began cracking top 100 prospects lists as a member of the franchise. Still, that wasn’t enough for the Cubs to keep him.

After the 2010 season, when Archer topped out as Baseball America’s 27th-best prospect, the Cubs dealt him to the Rays in a blockbuster. Along with Archer, the Cubs surrendered shortstop prospect Hak-Ju Lee, catcher Robinson Chirinos, and outfielders Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer for righty Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez and lefty Zac Rosscup.

The Cubs got nothing from Perez, who never appeared in the majors with them, and very little from Rosscup (he posted a 5.32 ERA over 47 1/3 frames and parts of four seasons in their uniform). On the other hand, Garza was effective in Chicago from 2011-13. Though the team failed to push for the playoffs during that stretch, Garza turned in 372 2/3 innings of 3.45 ERA pitching with 8.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. However, as a non-contender in July 2013, Chicago sent Garza – a soon-to-be free agent – to Texas for third baseman Mike Olt and the righty trio of Carl Edwards Jr., Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez.

As for the Rays’ return, Lee never made it to MLB, even though he was a highly regarded prospect in his younger days. He’s now playing with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization. Chirinos has evolved into a fine offensive catcher, though he only took 60 plate appearances with the Rays in 2011 before they traded him to the Rangers two years later. Fuld played from 2011-13 in Tampa Bay, where he batted .230/.301/.326 in 653 attempts. Guyer appeared with the Rays in parts of four seasons from ’11-15 and slashed .255/.341/.396 over 978 PA.

While none of Lee, Chirinos, Fuld or Guyer offered especially valuable production as Rays, Archer thrived. He piled up 177 starts and amassed 1,063 innings of 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP ball with 9.7 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9 as part of the team from 2011-18, during which he earned two All-Star nods and signed the six-year, $25.5MM extension he’s still playing under.

Many have been tough on Archer on account of what has been a rough run in Pittsburgh, but he’s the same player who once made the Rays look like geniuses for adding him. That makes his recent fall from grace all the more surprising, and it’s anyone’s guess whether a rebound will be in store in the wake of TOS surgery.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Former MLB Players In NPB: Japan Central League

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Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is targeting a June 19 Opening Day. As is the case with the Korea Baseball Organization, the league has plenty of recognizable names for MLB fans to follow as we await the return of baseball in North America. NPB is larger than the KBO (12 teams vs. 10) and has slightly lesser restrictions on foreign players. As such, I split the “names to watch” rundown into two posts — this one covering the Japan Central League and a prior post on the Japan Pacific League.

Yomiuri Giants (77-64-2 record in 2019):

  • Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP: Perhaps the most well-known player on this list, Iwakuma was a rock in the Mariners’ rotation from 2012-16 before shoulder injuries interrupted a very strong MLB run. He signed with NPB’s Giants in the 2018-19 offseason but was only able to throw two minor league innings last year. Now 39, he’ll take another shot at a return in 2020.
  • Gerardo Parra, OF: The man who brought “Baby Shark” to Nationals Park and celebrated a World Series win last October took an early free-agent deal with the Giants back on Nov. 20. The 33-year-old batted .250/.300/.447 with the Nats last year.
  • Rubby De La Rosa, RHP: Once considered to be among the game’s top pitching prospects, the now 31-year-old De La Rosa had a decent run with the Red Sox and D-backs from 2014-17 before injuries derailed his career. He made his NPB debut with the Giants last year, pitching to a 2.25 ERA with a 32-to-5 K/BB ratio in 24 innings.
  • Angel Sanchez, RHP: Pirates fans are excused if they don’t remember Sanchez’s brief 12-inning cup of coffee from the 2017 season. Sanchez, now 30, had a very promising 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A before his 2016 season was lost to Tommy John surgery. He’s spent the past two years with the KBO’s SK Wyverns, including an impressive 2.62 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 165 innings in 2019.
  • Thyago Vieira, RHP: The 26-year-old Vieira was an intriguing prospect with the Mariners and White Sox due to his huge fastball velocity, but he was hit hard in 25 2/3 MLB frames and in the upper minors. This will be his first season in Japan.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars (71-69-3):

  • Jose Lopez, 1B: Yes — it’s that Jose Lopez. An All-Star second baseman with the Mariners way back in 2006, Lopez is now 36 years old and a seven-year veteran in NPB. In two seasons with the Giants and five with the BayStars, he’s a .276/.317/.500 hitter with 186 home runs.
  • Spencer Patton, RHP: The 32-year-old hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2016 and has just a 6.26 ERA in 54 frames between the Rangers and Cubs. But Patton has made a name for himself with the BayStars, for whom he pitched to a combined 2.64 ERA in 116 innings from 2017-18. He had a down year in ’19 and will be looking for better health and better results in 2020.
  • Edwin Escobar, LHP: Still just 28, Escobar hasn’t pitched in the Majors since a 2016 cameo with the D-backs. That’s due largely to the success he’s found in Japan, where he’s logged a 3.36 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in three seasons out of the BayStars’ bullpen.
  • Tyler Austin, OF: Austin has shown plenty of power in parts of four MLB seasons, but his strikeouts have limited him to a .219/.292/.451 overall batting line. The former Yankees prospect will be suiting up for the first time in NPB this season.
  • Neftali Soto, INF/OF: The 31-year-old Soto saw all of 44 MLB plate appearances with the Reds in 2013-14, but he’s hit like a star in Japan. In two seasons with the Yokohama club, he’s batted .288/.355/.594 with 84 home runs inn 1043 plate appearances. He’ll be a free agent next year and could potentially draw some MLB interest.

Hanshin Tigers (69-68-6):

  • Kyuji Fujikawa, RHP: The now 39-year-old Fujikawa never took off after signing with the Cubs for the 2013 season. He returned to NPB in 2016 and has regained his status as a high-end reliever with his original club, the Tigers. Fujikawa whiffed 83 hitters and posted a 1.77 ERA in 56 innings last year.
  • Kosuke Fukudome, OF: Another former Cub, Fukudome is still chugging along at 43 years old. He hit .256/.347/.394 in 403 plate appearances with the Tigers last season — his 16th in NPB.
  • Justin Bour, 1B/DH: Bour blasted 92 home runs in a six-year run with the Marlins, Phillies and Angels, but he never hit much upon leaving Miami. His power should play well in his NPB debut this year, and hopefully his “Bourtobello Crushroom” nickname catches on there (even though Bour told Sports Illustrated he’s never actually been called by that nickname, it still appears on his Baseball-Reference page).
  • Jon Edwards, RHP: Edwards, 32, has seen MLB time with the Rangers, Indians and Padres but never cemented himself as a steady contributor. He boasts a 3.08 ERA and 12.4 K/9 in parts of four Triple-A seasons, however. This will be his NPB debut.
  • Onelki Garcia, RHP: Garcia, 30, has just 7 1/3 MLB innings to his name and will return to the Tigers for a second season after struggling to a 4.69 ERA in 103 2/3 frames last year. He did post a strong 2.99 mark with the Chunichi Dragons in 2018.
  • Jefry Marte, 1B/3B: Marte never found his stride in parts of four seasons with the Tigers or Angels from 2015-18, but he posted a .284/.381/.444 slash in his debut effort with Hanshin last season.
  • Jerry Sands, OF: The 32-year-old Sands had a journeyman career in the U.S. but hit at star levels in the Korea Baseball Organization over the past two seasons: .306/.391/.574. He signed with Hanshin this winter and will be making his NPB debut.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp (70-70-3):

  • Kris Johnson, LHP: Johnson, 35, barely got a look with the Pirates or Twins, but he’s been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past half decade. In five seasons, all with the Carp, he has a combined 2.54 ERA with averages of seven strikeouts and three walks per nine innings.
  • DJ Johnson, RHP: This will be the first NPB season for Johnson, who posted a 4.88 ERA in 31 2/3 innings with the Rockies over the past couple of seasons. As an undrafted player who has also spent time on the indie circuit, the 30-year-old Johnson is cultivating quite the unique baseball career.
  • Tayler Scott, RHP: The second South African-born player to make it to the big leagues — Gift Ngoepe was the first — Scott was hit hard in 16 1/3 frames between the Mariners and Orioles last year. However, the 28-year-old also tossed 16 frames with just one run allowed and a 21-to-3 K/BB ratio with the Orioles’ Triple-A club in ’19.
  • Jose Pirela, OF: Pirela hit well in a half season with the Padres back in 2017, but he’s struggled in the Majors outside that run. He was never able to win the second base gig in San Diego and was lost in the shuffle of their crowded outfield mix. Pirela brings a career .257/.308/.392 MLB slash to his debut season in Japan, but he’s a .311/.362/.493 hitter in Triple-A.

Chunichi Dragons (68-73-2):

  • Dayan Viciedo, 1B: White Sox fans surely remember “The Tank” from his 2010-14 stretch with the South Siders, but he never blossomed into the star they hoped he could. Vicideo hit .254/.298/.424 in just shy of 1800 MLB plate appearances, but he’s a .303/.372/.502 hitter in four seasons as a Dragon.
  • Moises Sierra, OF: Speaking of former White Sox outfielders, Sierra’s run with the ChiSox was much more brief than that of Viciedo. He played 83 games there and 207 total in the big leagues from 2012-18, hitting .235/.287/.362 in the process. Sierra posted outrageous numbers in the Mexican League last year (.355/.464/.572) and will make his NPB debut in 2020.
  • Enny Romero, LHP: Romero pitched quite well for the 2017 Nats but has otherwise struggled in the Majors. He spent most of last season in the Dragons’ rotation, pitching to a 4.26 ERA through 116 1/3 frames.
  • Zoilo Almonte, OF: The 30-year-old Almonte never caught on with the Yankees despite a long look in their farm system, but he’s broken out with the Chunichi club in NPB. In two prior seasons, Almonte is a .323/.372/.491 hitter.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (59-82-2):

  • Nori Aoki, OF: Aoki may be 38 years old, but he’s still a productive hitter. In 565 plate appearances with the Swallows in 2019, he batted .297/.385/.442 with 16 long balls. That’s more power than he showed in MLB, but his six-year run in the Majors was still quite solid: .285/.350/.387, 10.5 WAR.
  • Alcides Escobar, SS: Aoki’s former Royals teammate will join him for his debut NPB campaign once play resumes in two weeks. The 33-year-old Escobar’s bat tailed off dramatically in his final big league seasons, but he’s a former All-Star, Gold Glove winner and World Series champion.
  • Gabriel Ynoa, RHP: A longtime Mets farmhand, the 27-year-old Ynoa never found much success in the Majors (5.39 ERA in 163 2/3 innings). Ynoa soaked up 110 innings for a disastrous Orioles pitching staff in 2019, but he’ll hope to make more of an impact in his NPB debut.
  • Matt Koch, RHP: Koch, 29, never found his footing in four years with the D-backs or even in Triple-A, but he threw well up through the Double-A level in his career.
  • Scott McGough, RHP: The 30-year-old McGough has just 6 2/3 innings in the Majors, all with the 2015 Marlins, but he was sharp for Yakult in 2019, pitching to a 3.15 ERA with nearly a strikeout per frame in 68 2/3 innings of relief.
  • Albert Suarez, RHP: Once a Rule 5 pick by the Giants, Suarez also saw some time with the Yakult club last season, logging a 1.54 ERA in 17 2/3 frames. He also spent time with their minor league club, but he’ll hope to establish himself further in 2020.
  • Ryota Igarashi, RHP: The 41-year-old Igarashi’s time with the Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays in 2010-12 was ugly, but he’s been a consistently strong bullpen presence in a whopping 17 NPB seasons. Last year’s 2.98 ERA in 42 1/3 frames was a near-match with his 2.93 career mark, although his 5.1 BB/9 mark was a bit of a red flag.

A Bad Trade Gets Even Worse

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Neither the Pirates nor their long-suffering fans needed more unfortunate news Wednesday, but they received some centering on one of the team’s most prominent players. The club announced that right-hander Chris Archer underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on Tuesday, meaning he won’t play in 2020 if there is a season.

While the team believes Archer will be ready to return in 2021, it’s very much up in the air whether he will pitch for the Pirates again. The club does have Archer’s rights for ’21 by way of an option worth $11MM, but it could choose to buy him out instead for a relatively paltry $250K. In light of the surgery – not to mention the money the low-budget Pirates would save (which could be all the more important for them in these uncertain economic times) and Archer’s uninspiring production in their uniform – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bucs cut ties with him in a few months.

It’s well known by now to everyone who closely follows the majors, but here’s yet another reminder: Archer joined Pittsburgh in a 2018 trade with the Rays that looked like one of the worst in Pirates history even before Wednesday’s developments. The Pirates and then-general manager Neal Huntington thought they were acquiring a front-end, reasonably priced starter in Archer, who was then 29 and someone who had recorded a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP with more than a strikeout per inning in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Since Archer got to Pittsburgh, though, his run prevention has gone in the tank. While he has struck out almost 11 batters per nine, he has also logged a less-than-stellar 4.92 ERA/4.71 FIP over 172 innings as a Pirate.

The Rays, for their part, are no doubt pleased with their end of the trade. They came away with outfielder Austin Meadows and righty Tyler Glasnow, who were promising prospects as Pirates and who have since proven their worth in the majors. The 25-year-old Meadows was a 4.0-fWAR player with 33 home runs a season ago. Glasnow missed a substantial amount of time with injuries in 2019, but the towering 26-year-old was a force during the 60 2/3 innings he did accrue, as he owned hitters with a 1.78 ERA/2.26 FIP, 11.27 K/9 against 2.08 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate.

Now more than ever before, it appears the Pirates are going to rue making this deal. So, perhaps they’ll regard it as a sunk cost and decline Archer’s option when the time comes, especially considering new GM Ben Cherington has no connection to the trade that brought the hurler to the Steel City. As you’d expect, though, Cherington suggested Wednesday he hasn’t closed the door on retaining Archer.

“We won’t have games to evaluate, but there will be other information that we have at that time that we don’t have now,” Cherington told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “We want to take all the time we possibly can until we have no time remaining, and then make the best decision we can at that time.”

Cherington would probably like to at least get something for Archer in a trade, but that may be impossible to ask now that he’s coming off TOS surgery. Regardless, do you think Archer is done as a Pirate?

(Poll link for app users)

Remembering The Top Of The 1997 Expansion Draft

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In case you missed it, MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes and I are gearing up for a mock expansion draft that will kick off Thursday at 1 p.m. CT. On the eve of our event, I figured it would be worthwhile to go back to 1997 – the last time there was a real expansion draft in Major League Baseball – and specifically focus on the first 10 players whom the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks took off the board. For the most, real standouts were hard to come by near the top of that draft (here are all 70 selections if you’re interested). Maybe Tim’s Portland Lumberjacks and my Las Vegas Vipers will stumble on more gems Thursday.

1.) Tony Saunders, LHP, Devil Rays:

  • Saunders, then 23, was coming off a rookie year with the Marlins in which he pitched to a 4.61 ERA/4.46 FIP across 111 1/3 innings. Little did he or Tampa Bay know his career wouldn’t extend much beyond then. Saunders made 40 starts and tossed 234 1/3 innings of 4.53 ERA/4.51 FIP from 1998-99, but he broke his arm (warning: that video is hard to watch) on the mound in the second of those seasons and broke it again while rehabbing the next year. He had to retire after that.

2.) Brian Anderson, LHP, Diamondbacks:

  • Twenty-five at the time, Anderson was a former No. 3 overall pick (1993) who was coming off a run of unspectacular pitching with the Angels and Indians when he went from Cleveland to Arizona in the expansion draft. But Anderson did end up eating a lot of innings as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he recorded a 4.52 ERA/4.91 FIP with 4.39 K/9 and 1.64 BB/9 over 840 2/3 frames from 1998-2002. He was part of the D-backs’ only World Series-winning team in 2001.

3.) Jeff Suppan, RHP, Diamondbacks:

  • Then 22, Suppan was coming off a so-so tenure in parts of three seasons with the Red Sox when the Diamondbacks selected him. He barely even pitched for the Diamondbacks, as the Royals purchased him in 1998 after Suppan totaled 66 innings of 6.68 ERA ball in Arizona. However, Suppan did go on to a long major league career. As a member of a few different teams, he combined for a 4.70 ERA/4.86 FIP and 2,542 2/3 innings from 1995-2012.

4.) Quinton McCracken, OF, Devil Rays:

  • A former Rockie who was 27 when the expansion draft rolled around, McCracken got off to a decent start in Tampa Bay in 1998, when he batted .292/.335/.410 with seven home runs, 19 steals and 1.5 fWAR in 675 plate appearances. However, owing in part to a torn ACL, McCracken only mustered a line of .229/.308/.291 with one homer, six steals and minus-1.4 fWAR in 202 PA from 1999-2000. The Rays released him after that.

5.) Gabe Alvarez, 3B, Diamondbacks:

  • Alvarez, whom Arizona took from San Diego, never played for Arizona. The Diamondbacks traded Alvarez, righty Matt Drews and infielder Joe Randa to the Tigers for third baseman Travis Fryman on the day of the expansion draft. None of Alvarez, Drews or Randa offered much impact in Detroit. Fryman didn’t play for Arizona, which quickly flipped him and lefty Tom Martin to Cleveland for third baseman Matt Williams.

6.) Bobby Abreu, OF, Devil Rays:

  • This could have been an absolute steal for Tampa Bay, but the club squandered it. Abreu, whom the D-Rays got from the Astros, went on to enjoy at least a “Hall of Very Good career.” He played with a few teams (primarily the Phillies) from 1996-2014 and slashed .291/.395/.475 with 288 homers, 400 steals and 59.8 fWAR. None of his 10,081 plate appearances came as a Ray, though, as the club dealt him to the Phillies for shortstop Kevin Stocker on the day of the draft. Stocker took 804 PA with Tampa Bay from 1998-2000 and batted .250/.329/.347 with nine homers.

7.) Jorge Fabregas, C, Diamondbacks:

  • The Diamondbacks wanted Fabregas so much that they were happy Tampa Bay took Abreu instead. Oops. Most recently a member of the White Sox when the Diamondbacks scooped him up, Fabregas had a short stint in Arizona. He amassed 167 PA with the team in 1998 and hit .199/.263/.245. The D-backs traded him and righty Willie Blair to the Mets that summer for RHP Nelson Figueroa and outfielder Bernard Gilkey.

8.) Miguel Cairo, INF, Devil Rays:

  • Twenty-three when the Rays grabbed him from the Cubs, Cairo wound up lasting 17 seasons with several different clubs, though he was never much of an offensive threat. His OPS as a Devil Ray from 1998-2000 (.675) matched his lifetime mark.

9.) Karim Garcia, OF, Diamondbacks:

  • This couldn’t have worked out better for Arizona, and it had little to do with Garcia’s contributions in its uniform. After swiping the then-22-year-old from the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks saw Garcia turn in a .222/.260/.381 line in 354 PA in 1998. The D-backs subsequently traded Garcia to the Tigers for outfielder Luis Gonzalez, who was largely outstanding in the desert from 1999-2006 and whose World Series-winning hit against Mariano Rivera and the Yankees in 2001 will always count as one of the most iconic moments in baseball history.

10.) Rich Butler, OF, Devil Rays:

  • Butler joined Tampa Bay as a 24-year-old who played in all of seven games with the Blue Jays in 1997. He appeared in 79 as a Devil Ray from 1998-99, but he never played in the majors again after combining to hit .219/.274/.350 in 259 PA during those two seasons.

Replacing Lester And Quintana

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At present, the Cubs have only two starting pitchers under contract for the 2021 season: Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks.  The Cubs actually control Darvish through 2023 and Hendricks through ’24, so they’ll continue as rotation mainstays into their mid-30s.  The pair combined for 355 2/3 innings of 3.72 ball in 2019, and they’ll earn a total of $36MM in 2021.  It’s a good starting point, but the Cubs have to address 60% of their rotation before the 2021 season.

The Cubs’ Three Free Agents

Jon Lester’s time with the Cubs has been a clear success no matter what else happens, and he’ll never have to buy his own drink in Chicago.  The lefty will turn 37 prior to the ’21 season.  Is there a way he continues with the Cubs?  The easiest path would be through his current contract, which guarantees his $25MM mutual option for 2021 with 200 innings pitched in 2020.  Obviously Lester can’t reach that number in a shortened season, but such benchmarks would become prorated.  Meaning if MLB teams play an 81-game season, Lester’s goal would become 100 innings.

Lester has averaged 5.62 innings per start over the past three years, so in a half-season he’d either need to go deeper into games or make 18 starts to reach 100 innings.  In a recent chat with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Lester talked about the need for pitchers to ramp up carefully to avoid injury, and it’s doubtful he’d push himself well past six innings per start just to get his option to vest.   I suppose in the most extreme example, MLB could follow through on its 50-game schedule threat, dropping Lester’s benchmark to about 62 innings.  He could theoretically pull that off in 10 starts, but it still seems physically risky to push to a level he hasn’t reached in years.

On the Cubs’ end, they likely prefer the $10MM buyout to locking Lester in for $25MM.  So new manager and former Lester battery-mate David Ross could encounter a delicate situation, where if Lester somehow kicks off a 2020 season going deeper into games, Ross’ bosses might push for earlier hooks.  Ultimately, though, I don’t expect Lester’s option to vest, in which case it’s a mutual one.  It’s rare that both sides exercise such an option, meaning Lester would become a free agent.  Working out a new short-term deal could be tricky, with the Cubs already on the hook for a significant $10MM buyout.

The Cubs also stand to lose Jose Quintana to free agency.  Quintana, who will turn 32 prior to next season, hasn’t quite gotten the results the Cubs hoped for after giving up Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for him in July 2017.  In his time with the Cubs, Q has posted a 4.23 ERA over 429 2/3 innings.  His impressive durability has remained intact, but the southpaw has dropped to about 5.4 innings per start since 2018.  By a results-based measure, Baseball Reference WAR, Quintana was at just 1.4 in 2019.  FanGraphs WAR, rooted in the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stat, puts him at a healthy 3.5 – rewarding respectable strikeout, walk, and home run numbers but ignoring his allowing 10.1 hits per nine innings.

Wherever you land on WAR, it’s fair to say Quintana projects to be better than 2019’s 4.68 ERA.  170 solid innings of 4.30 ball might be a reasonable expectation moving forward.  It’s not clear yet on what the qualifying offer may look like if teams play a shortened 2020 season, so it’s impossible to say whether the Cubs would offer one.  My guess is that they would not make the offer, instead maintaining their financial flexibility.  That’s what they did with Cole Hamels last winter.

Though he’s penciled in as the Cubs’ fifth starter for 2020, Tyler Chatwood’s contract has been a bust for the Cubs, and he’ll surely be allowed to leave via free agency.

Internal Options

What options do the Cubs have to fill a rotation spot internally?  There’s Alec Mills, the soft-tossing righty who turns 29 in November.  Mills was a candidate for the Cubs’ fifth starter job this spring, so he’ll likely be in the mix next year as well.  Adbert Alzolay, 26 next March, would be in the running again as well.  Alzolay pitched 109 innings in total over the past two seasons, and Mills hasn’t been particularly successful even at Triple-A.  Both pitchers are depth options, and if they’re favorites for a 2021 rotation job, it will be because they’re affordable.

Lefty Brailyn Marquez is the crown jewel of the Cubs’ farm system, but he’s yet to pitch above High A and projects for a 2022 ETA.  Even that goal could be pushed back given the lack of a minor league season this year.  The Cubs do have a few starters with experience at Double-A or above in Cory Abbott, Tyson Miller, and Justin Steele, all of whom have ceilings at as back-end starters according to Baseball America.  The bottom line?  The Cubs need to add at least two starters from outside before next season, and possibly three.

Free Agency

After paying a $7.6MM luxury tax bill for 2019, the Cubs were looking to stay under the $208MM payroll mark in 2020 as a means of resetting the escalating penalties.  The Cubs won’t get a free reset if the 2020 season is canceled, but if games are played the club will likely maintain their goal of staying below the base tax threshold.  It’s also possible that the luxury tax will be temporarily reduced in some way as part of the current negotiation between MLB and the players’ union, to grease offseason spending.  If the Cubs don’t spend money during the 2020-21 offseason, I don’t expect the luxury tax to be the reason again.

Cubs owner Tom Ricketts recently claimed that “about 70 percent of the revenue that comes into our organization comes in on day of game.”  He also said, “We’ve already lost half that season, so in a best-case scenario, we’re looking at recovering maybe 20 percent of our total income.”  We’ll never know the real financial picture, but obviously the Cubs won’t make nearly as much money as they expected to in 2020.  It’s easy to see this being the justification for modest free agent spending.  Still, there almost has to be some money to spend if the salaries of Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood come off the books.

While some of the savings could be offset by arbitration raises for players like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras, it’s impossible to project what those arbitration raises will look like after a shortened season.  I imagine we’d be subjected to a fundamental disagreement across baseball on whether a half-season should result in a half-raise, but at least there’s already a mechanism in place to settle that with arbitration hearings.

The free agent market will feature roughly 30 credible options, many of whom the Cubs have already tried.  Aside from the trio mentioned above, there’s recent former Cubs Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Arrieta, Brett Anderson, and Drew Smyly.  If the Cubs seek innings, they could make a run at Trevor Bauer, who famously seeks a one-year deal with a team that will let him pitch every fourth day.  With three vacancies, getting significant innings out of someone like Bauer could fit the Cubs better than an arguably better pitcher with a poor track record of durability, like James Paxton.

Though the market lacks a true ace, options abound with a solid group including Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, Robbie Ray, and Anthony DeSclafani.  Feel free to explore next winter’s starting pitcher market further with this FanGraphs leaderboard I created.  Even on a budget, the Cubs could plausibly target any of these guys.

The Trade Market

I’ve yet to see any concepts floated regarding in-season trading during a shortened 2020 campaign.  At the least we can assume players will be traded in the offseason and starting pitchers will be available.  The Cubs’ farm system is far from robust, but they do have minor league assets to consider trading.  There’s also a good chance of the team trading Kris Bryant, who becomes eligible for free agency after 2021.

Even the teams that were clearly rebuilding for 2020 could adjust course if they somehow make a fluke run in a shortened season with expanded playoffs.  Names like Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, Joe Musgrove, Jon Gray, Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, Jose Urena, and Nick Pivetta could reasonably be available, though we may be in for an unpredictable offseason.

Whatever path they choose, the Cubs seem likely to remake their rotation in a significant way for 2021.  What do you expect them to do?  Let us know in the comments.

The Winding Journey Of An All-Star Slugger

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Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz has carved out a fantastic career with a few different teams since he debuted in the majors a decade and a half ago. As you’ll see below, it has been quite an eventful journey for a player who has gone from relatively unheralded prospect to 401-home run hitter with six All-Star nods on his resume…

Professional Entry

  • The Dominican Republic native entered the pros with the Mets, who signed him as an 18-year-old amateur free agent in 1998, but he never took a professional at-bat with the franchise.

Prospect Status

  • Cruz was not a leaguewide elite prospect as he climbed his way to the majors. At his best, he ranked as Baseball America’s No. 8 Brewers prospect in 2006. BA rightly wrote then that Cruz, the Brewers’ minor league player of the year, possessed “well above average raw power,” though it also expressed concern over “holes in his swing.”

Early Career Trades

  • In the first of multiple trades Cruz has been involved in as a pro, the Mets sent him to the Athletics in August 2000 for infielder Jorge Velandia. However, Velandia was a nonentity in the majors for the Mets. He amassed 92 plate appearances with New York across three years and stumbled to a .149/.281/.216 line.
  • Like the Mets before them, the A’s gave up on a young Cruz, but only after he spent a few years in their system. In December 2004, Oakland dealt Cruz and right-hander Justin Lehr to the Brewers for infielder Keith Ginter. Unfortunately for the A’s, Ginter mustered a weak .161/.234/.263 line over 156 PA in 2005 – his lone season with the club. As mentioned earlier, Cruz was a productive Brewers minor leaguer, though he didn’t get much of a chance in the majors as a member of Milwaukee. Cruz made eight appearances and totaled seven PA in 2005.

Headed To The Site Of His Breakout

  • The Brewers traded Cruz and former slugger Carlos Lee to the Rangers for righty Francisco Cordero, lefty Julian Cordero, and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix in July 2006. Let’s first address the non-Cruz pieces in that swap: Lee was a short-term success as a member of the Rangers, with whom he batted .322/.369/.525 with nine home runs in 260 PA. The Rangers didn’t make the playoffs, though, and Lee bolted for the Astros’ six-year, $100MM contract during the ensuing offseason. Francisco Cordero had a very nice run in Milwaukee, where he pitched to a 2.60 ERA with 11.6 K/9 and 60 saves in 90 innings from 2006-07. He left the Brewers for the Reds’ four-year, $46MM offer, which was then a record for a reliever. Julian Cordero never got past Single-A ball. Mench put up an unimpressive .256/.288/.403 line with nine HRs in 441 PA as a Brewer from 2006-07, while Nix collected a meager 61 PA with the club in parts of three seasons.

Overcoming Adversity

  • In hindsight, as effective as Lee and Francisco Cordero were after this trade, Cruz emerged as the most valuable piece for either team. It just took a few more years to finally happen. Cruz got off to a brutal start as a Ranger from 2006-07, when he combined to hit a dismal .231/.279/.384 with 15 HRs in 471 trips to the plate. Discouraged, the Rangers designated Cruz for assignment at the beginning of 2008, but they retained him after he cleared waivers. Cruz went on to mash 37 home runs in the minors that year, and he chipped in a tremendous .330/.421/.609 line and seven homers in 133 major league PA. That was truly the start of a fruitful run in Texas and in the majors as a whole. From 2009-13 as a Rangers regular, Cruz piled up 135 homers, batted .272/.331/.511 and won an ALCS MVP in 2011. To be clear, though, not everything went swimmingly for Cruz in the Lone Star State. The former outfielder’s defensive limitations helped lead to a catastrophic World Series loss to the Cardinals in 2011. Two years later, Cruz was hit with a 50-game suspension stemming from the Biogenesis scandal. However, Cruz contended he only took the substance to combat helicobacter pylori, a bacterial infection that caused a 40-pound weight loss.

Trips To Free Agency

  • The PED ban came at an especially inopportune time for Cruz, then a soon-to-be free agent; after rejecting the Rangers’ $14.1MM qualifying offer, he had to settle for a one-year, $8MM guarantee with the Orioles in February 2014. The move wound up as a positive for both sides, though, as Cruz rebuilt his stock as a member of a playoff team by slashing .271/.333/.525 and establishing a new career high with 40 homers.
  • Cruz returned to the open market the next offseason, but he did far better that time. In what looked like a questionable move by the Mariners, they handed Cruz a four-year, $57MM guarantee. As it turned out, Cruz more than lived up to his payday in Seattle, where he truly cemented himself as an all-world offensive player. He appeared in at least 144 games in each season from 2015-18 – a 1,967-PA stretch in which he racked up 163 homers, hit .284/.362/.546 and recorded an eye-popping 147 wRC+.
  • After his superb Seattle stint, Cruz reached free agency yet again prior to the 2019 campaign. And once again, the team that signed him came away happy. Cruz inked a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with the Twins, though the pact also included a $12MM club option for 2020. Unsurprisingly, the Twins picked up that option after Cruz helped the team set an all-time single-season HR record (307) en route to 101 wins and a division title. Despite only appearing in 120 games, Cruz contributed 41 of those dingers. Pound for pound, it may have been his greatest season at the plate thus far – he registered a .311/.392/.639 line with a personal-high 163 wRC+.

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It’s not exactly common to see a player thrive under three consecutive free-agent contracts, but Cruz has managed to accomplish the feat. He’ll have an opportunity to go 4 for 4 if he becomes a free agent again next winter. Although Cruz will turn 40 on July 1, his bat’s aging like fine wine, so it would seem unwise to doubt him.

The Rays’ Huge Win In Free Agency

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The Rays have crafted a reputation as one of the sport’s best organizations at finding undervalued talent. That typically manifests in frequent roster churn via trades and waiver claims. Given their budgetary limitations, the franchise has been decidedly less active in free agency. Last offseason, Tampa surprisingly stepped up to ink one of the better players available on the open market: right-hander Charlie Morton. The early returns couldn’t have been better.

In December 2018, the Rays added Morton on a two-year, $30MM guarantee. That’s hardly overwhelming money for most teams, but it no doubt accounted as a major splash by Rays’ standards. Morton’s $15MM salary counted for about a quarter of the club’s $60MM season-opening payroll last season, according to Cot’s Contracts. It was a major gamble for a front office lacking the resources of most of its rivals across the league. Nor was this a situation of a low-payroll team stepping in only after a free agent’s market fell way below expectations. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected a two-year, $32MM deal for Morton that almost perfectly aligned with the guarantee he actually received.

Morton’s age (he’d just turned 35) was the impetus for the contract’s short term. His performance over the prior two years had been fantastic. With the Astros from 2017-18, he spun 313.2 innings of 3.36 ERA/3.53 FIP ball with strong strikeout and ground ball numbers. His days as an unexciting back-end starter in Pittsburgh were long behind him. Morton had reinvented himself in Houston, sitting in the mid-90’s with a hammer curveball.

Nevertheless, even the Astros were reluctant to completely buy Morton’s late-career renaissance. They declined to offer him a $17.9MM qualifying offer. It was a bizarre move at the time that only looks worse in hindsight. That decision proved beneficial for Morton as a free agent, since his suitors needn’t worry about losing a draft pick to sign him. It proved equally beneficial for the Rays.

Would Tampa have still ponied up for Morton if doing so would’ve cost them their third-highest pick in the 2019 draft? Unclear. (They ended up selecting Campbell University right-hander Seth Johnson with that selection, if you’re curious). Fortunately, they didn’t have to make that decision.

Morton was brilliant in year one in Tampa. He tossed a career-high 194.2 innings with career-best marks in ERA (3.05), FIP (2.81), strikeout rate (30.4%), and both fWAR (6.1) and bWAR (4.9). He finished third in AL Cy Young voting, behind only a pair of former Astros’ teammates, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Morton was no doubt one of the biggest reasons the Rays advanced to an ALDS.

What does the future hold for Morton in Tampa? Hopefully, he’ll be able to play out his final guaranteed year under contract in 2020. If MLB doesn’t come to an agreement on a return to play this season, his situation will be more in flux. Morton’s contract calls for a club option of up to $15MM in 2021, one the Rays would almost certainly exercise given his 2019 dominance.

In February, though, Morton indicated he wasn’t sure he’d want to continue playing beyond 2020. How a potentially cancelled season could impact his thought process isn’t yet clear. Whatever the future holds, it’s apparent the Rays have already gotten a return well above and beyond the cost to bring Morton aboard.

Which Glove-First Shortstop Would You Rather Have?

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In a piece from MASN last week, Roch Kubatko said this of the Orioles’ search for a veteran shortstop: “The Orioles chose [Jose] Iglesias over Adeiny Hechavarría in their winter search for a glove-first shortstop.” Kubatko linked the Orioles to Hechavarria back in December, but La Pantera ultimately re-upped with the Braves on a one-year, $1MM deal. The Orioles, meanwhile, splurged on Iglesias, signing the 30-year-old gloveman for a one-year, $3MM guarantee (with a $3.5MM team option for 2021). 

Granted, the Jose Iglesias versus Adeiny Hechavarria showdown wasn’t the most compelling positional matchup of free agency. And while the Orioles may have shown interest in Hechavarria, these situations are dynamic, and the decision to sign one or the other was likely never quite so binary. Let’s use it as a jumping-off point for this player comparison anyway.

First, let’s cover the similarities, as both Cuban-born veterans are glove-first shortstops viewed generally as second-division starters. Hechavarria is a year older, and his deal comes at one-third the cost of Iglesias’, though the Orioles picked up the second year of control on Iglesias. Both players entered the league fairly young and both saw their first significant action in 2012 (Iglesias at 22 with the Red Sox, Hechavarria at 23 with the Blue Jays). And both have since gone on to play for multiple franchises (Iglesias for Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati and Baltimore, Hechavarria for Toronto, Miami, Tampa, Pittsburgh, both New Yorks, and Atlanta).

Since Iglesias has a more stable resume, my guess is his name carries a little more weight, so let’s start there. Iglesias, 30, has produced a total of 11.1 rWAR/11.6 fWAR thus far over his eight years in the bigs (he appeared in 10 games as a 21-year-old in 2011, but missed all of the 2014 season). The right-handed batter has traded off between ~2.5 fWAR and ~1.5 fWAR seasons going all the way back to his rookie campaign, but either way he presents as an above-average option at short. He produced 9 OAA at short last year, putting him among the elite options defensively at short.

The batting line is the question with Iglesias after posting a career line of .273/.315/.371. Included therein, however, is a fair amount of year-to-year variance. Early in his career, Iglesias was a .300 hitter, but over his final three seasons in Detroit (2016 to 2018) he managed a batting average of just .259 BA. The walk rate has been steadily below average, so when he can’t hit his way on base, his whole offensive profile suffers. He’s a difficult guy to strike out, and as a guy who puts the ball in play without much oomph, his offensive value is tied directly to his BABIP. When his BABIP falls below .300, his overall line underwhelms. When the ball bounces his way, such as in 2013, 2015, and 2019, Iglesias turns into an asset with the bat: combined .296 BA in those seasons.

Iglesias has also gained a modicum of power over the years. His isolated power was consistently below .100 for the early part of his career, but over the last three seasons, Iglesias has enjoyed a small bump to .114 ISO, .120 ISO, and .119 ISO. That’s still nothing to write home about, but put together with the rest of his profile, and it’s enough to make Iglesias a viable starter.

Thanks to his every-down status as the Marlins starting shortstop from 2013 to 2016, Hechavarria has appeared in more games and seen more plate appearances over his career than Iglesias. The past three seasons have been a whirlwind, however, as Hechavarria became a part-time player while playing for seven teams in the last three seasons. By WAR, he only comes about halfway to matching Iglesias’ career totals (5.6 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR). Iglesias edges out Hechavarria in most statistical categories, including career stolen bases (52 to 35).

Though their profiles are very similar, the real difference between the two is that Hechavarria hasn’t matched the offensive ceiling of Iglesias. They walk at similar rates, and though Hechavarria strikes out a little more, he still boasts an above-average ability to put the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he’s never quite put it all together. He hasn’t posted a batting average higher than .261 or an on-base percentage over .300 since 2015.

If there’s something in Hechavarria’s favor, it’s this: his power ticked upwards last season, to a robust .202 ISO. The added power came in only half a season of play, so it’s hard to know if the gains in Hechavarria’s game could/would be sustained over the course of a full slate of games. Back in Atlanta, we won’t likely find out, as he’s in line to back up Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies in the middle infield.

For that matter, it’s difficult to compare the contracts signed by Hechavarria and Iglesias because their expected roles are so different – and the expectations of their clubs are so very divergent. The Orioles might see triple the production from Iglesias that the Braves will from Hechavarria (to match the salary difference), but that’s at least in part because Iglesias could receive triple the playing time. Both the Orioles and Braves probably got the guy that better suits their needs – but in a vacuum – the choice is yours (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

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