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The Reds Have A Eugenio Suarez Problem

By | at December 28, 2021 10:58pm CDT

Reds GM Nick Krall kicked off the offseason by stating that “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”  While subsequent reports have indicated that the Reds aren’t entirely tearing things down, the team has already parted ways with such veterans as Wade Miley and Tucker Barnhart, and combined with last winter’s trade of Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, that marks three notable players given away for virtually nothing in salary-dump fashion.

Much to the dismay of Cincinnati fans, the gradual increase in spending that followed six losing seasons from 2014-19 now appears to be over.  That rebuild resulted in winning records in both 2020 and 2021, but only a two-game appearance (without a run scored) in the expanded 2020 postseason to show for the Reds’ efforts.  It is safe to say that the pandemic is in large part to blame for ownership’s apparent decision to limit spending, and yet it also can’t be ignored that some of the higher-paid members of the Reds roster have underachieved — a critical setback for any mid-market team.

Case in point, Eugenio Suarez.

The third baseman’s seven-year, $66MM extension in March 2018 was one of the early signposts that the Reds were getting ready to open the pocketbook and start building the core of their next contender.  The extension covered Suarez’s three remaining arbitration years and up to five of his free agent years (Cincinnati has a $15MM club option on his services for 2025, with a $2MM buyout).

Suarez earned the extension after posting some solid offensive and defensive numbers over his first three seasons in the Queen City, and the Reds’ decision to lock him up looked even wiser considering how Suarez performed in 2018-19.  Over his age 26-27 seasons, Suarez kicked up his production to another level, hitting .277/.362/.550 with 83 home runs over 1268 plate appearances, good for a 132 wRC+ and a 133 OPS+.  Suarez received down-ballot MVP attention in both seasons, made the All-Star Game in 2018, and cracked 49 homers in 2019 to tie the second-highest single-season mark in Reds franchise history.

It certainly seemed as if Suarez was set to be one of the cornerstones of a now-loaded Reds lineup that added the likes of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in the 2019-20 offseason.  However, Suarez simply hasn’t been the same since, and there are some unwelcome signs that 2018 and 2019 may represent his peak.

Some red flags even emerged during that 49-homer season.  Suarez’s .351 xwOBA was well below his .381 wOBA, and his strikeout rate ballooned to 28.5%, after Suarez struck out at only a 23.8% rate over his first five MLB seasons.  As per Statcast, 2019 also marked the lowest line drive (24%) and grounder (36%) rates of Suarez’s career, as he sustained the big increase in his fly-ball rate that began in 2018.  Statcast’s “Expected Home Runs” data only covers the last three seasons, so while Suarez’s 2018 numbers can’t be analyzed, the xHR metric indicates that Suarez “should” have hit only 39.1 homers in 2019.

The other glaring trend was Suarez’s evolution into being a dead pull hitter.  Since the start of the 2019 season, the right-handed hitting Suarez has hit the ball to left field 50.5% of the time, the fourth-highest pull rate of any qualified hitter in baseball.  While teams increased their shift usage against Suarez in 2019, it didn’t hamper his offense too much thanks to that sky-high 29.5% homer rate.  In fact, Suarez had a whopping .423 wOBA against the shift in 2019.

The shifts kept coming, however, with teams shifting against Suarez 69.6% of the time in 2020 and 55.2% of the time in 2021.  With Suarez’s fly balls leaving the yard at a more moderate rate and his grounders now getting gobbled by opposing defenses, Suarez had only a .221 BABIP in 2020-21, contributing to that big dip in his offensive numbers.

Suarez followed up his big 2019 with almost exactly average (100 OPS+, 101 wRC+) production in 2020, as he batted .202/.312/.470 with 15 homers in 231 PA.  After only a .504 OPS over his first 82 PA, Suarez had a .928 OPS in his last 149 trips to the plate, so the thinking was that Suarez might have just had a slow start.  The third baseman also underwent surgery to remove some loose cartilage from his right shoulder in January 2020, though Suarez was expected to have been ready to go by sometime in April if the season had started on time.

That shoulder surgery stands out as an obvious demarcation line between Suarez’s peak production and his decline over the last two years.  However, given the statistical question marks that began even in 2019, injuries can’t be considered the root cause for Suarez’s struggles.  As his rough 2021 season played out, all of the warning signs that stood out in 2019-20 snowballed, resulting in what was essentially a replacement-level season.  Baseball Reference gave Suarez a subpar -0.7 bWAR, while Fangraphs’ calculations were only a little more generous, calculating Suarez at 0.6 fWAR.

Suarez batted .198/.286/.428 over 574 plate appearances, hitting 31 home runs but contributing only an 80 OPS+/85 wRC+.  His 9.8% walk rate was his worst since the 2016 season, and he had only a .301 wOBA against the shift.  Really, considering Suarez had only a .313 wOBA when teams weren’t shifting on him, his pull hitting was less of an issue than the fact that he wasn’t making much hard contact at all.  While Suarez still had one of the league’s better barrel rates, his 39.8% hard-hit ball rate was below the league average.

The strikeouts also just kept coming.  There has always been a lot of swing-and-miss in Suarez’s game, yet among qualified batters, only Javier Baez and Wil Myers have a higher strikeout rate than Suarez’s 29.1% figure since the start of the 2019 season.

If these problems at the plate weren’t bad enough, Suarez’s defense is now also a question mark, though that could be more due to the Reds’ roster construction.  With the team unable to land a shortstop in the 2020-21 offseason, the Reds planned to move Suarez to shortstop last year, thus moving Moustakas into the third base role and breakout rookie Jonathan India getting a shot at the everyday second base job.  Suarez began his career as a shortstop and lost 15 pounds last winter in preparation to move back into his old position, and yet the defensive problems that triggered his move to third base in the first place continued.

Pretty much all of Suarez’s time at shortstop came in the season’s first six weeks, as he struggled enough that Cincinnati quickly pivoted away from the experiment.  With Moustakas spending a big chunk of the season on the injured list, Suarez was able to move back to third base, with India enjoying a Rookie Of The Year campaign at second base and Kyle Farmer turning in a respectable performance as the regular shortstop.

Heading into 2022, it’s hard to know what to expect from Suarez.  If the NL adopts the designated hitter as part of the new collective bargaining agreement, it will alleviate some of the infield logjam that stemmed from the Moustakas signing, but Suarez getting time at DH doesn’t help matters if he still can’t hit.  It could be that some mental pressure might be lifted for Suarez if he doesn’t have to worry about a position switch, and yet defensive metrics have illustrated that Suarez has been an average third baseman at best for the last four years.

For a Reds team now looking to trim payroll, Suarez’s $11MM salary in each of the next three seasons (and the $2MM guaranteed via his club option) stands out as an expenditure that the club would probably prefer to not have on the books.  Finding a suitor for Suarez in the wake of his 2021 down year won’t be easy, as teams may now see Suarez only as a one-dimensional power bat who doesn’t make much contact, and whose production can be kept in check by the shift.

It’s worth noting that Suarez drew some trade interest last offseason, with the Nationals in particular exploring a deal, though Washington wasn’t open to parting with its top pitching prospects.  In hindsight, last winter may have been the Reds’ best opportunity to score a solid trade package in return for Suarez, as he still carried enough long-term value that Cincinnati wouldn’t have moved him in a salary dump.

The equation may have changed now, as the Reds might need to attach a prospect as a sweetener for another club to eat a bigger chunk of Suarez’s salary, or Krall might have to arrange some kind of a trade for another team’s unwanted contract.  The Reds could also conceivably try to package Suarez along with one of their better veteran trade chips (i.e. Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray), but giving up one of those pitchers essentially just to get Suarez’s salary moved wouldn’t be an optimal way to maximize return on a top trade asset.

Needless to say, a return to form for Suarez would be an enormous boon for Cincinnati next year, as Suarez would then essentially be replacing Castellanos (who is still a free agent but unlikely to re-sign given his big asking price) as another big bat alongside India, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker.  Since he doesn’t turn 31 until July, Suarez isn’t exactly over the hill, and players have rebounded from far worse declines by making changes to their swing or their approach at the plate.  That said, Suarez may need something drastic to counteract the underlying statistical trends of the last three seasons, or else an extension that once looked pretty team-friendly may now be something of an albatross for the Reds going forward.

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MLBTR Poll: Where Will Clayton Kershaw Sign?

By | at December 28, 2021 10:16pm CDT

Clayton Kershaw is among the most interesting free agents still available. The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but he’s still highly effective when healthy. He worked 121 2/3 innings over 22 starts this past season, pitching to a 3.55 ERA with a very strong 29.5% strikeout percentage and a tiny 4.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ frames, only five topped Kershaw’s 25.2 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages.

Yet the 33-year-old’s status is complicated by a few matters. First and foremost is health. He missed two months with forearm/elbow soreness between July and September. The three-time Cy Young award winner returned to make four starts, but he exited his final regular season appearance with renewed forearm issues. That proved to be season-ending, and while he didn’t require Tommy John surgery, he did undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection.

Kershaw is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Which uniform he’ll don remains up in the air, though. He’s been a career-long Dodger, and the Los Angeles front office has predictably spoken about a desire to bring him back. The Dodgers declined to make him a qualifying offer, a decision president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last month was out of respect for his accomplishments with the franchise. There’s no doubt the team would welcome a return, but Friedman told reporters the pitcher wanted to take some time to ruminate on his decision with his family.

If he doesn’t return to the Dodgers, it’s widely expected he’d be donning a Rangers uniform. Kershaw’s a Dallas native who has ties to Texas manager Chris Woodward, who previously worked on the Dodgers staff. Woodward is already on record about the Rangers’ desire to bring him aboard this offseason.

Texas probably isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2022, while the Dodgers look like one of the game’s top World Series contenders. Yet the Rangers would welcome both the high-end production Kershaw’s likely to provide if healthy and his veteran leadership for a generally young rotation in Arlington. If Kershaw and his family decide that a move to the Dallas area is desirable, the Rangers would no doubt be happy to add him.

There’d surely be other teams with interest if Kershaw casts a wider geographic net than Los Angeles and Texas. Assuming he’s indeed on track to be ready for the season, the eight-time All-Star would upgrade every team’s rotation. Kershaw himself hasn’t hinted at a decision one way or another, yet it’d register as a surprise to many around the industry if he signed with anyone other than the Dodgers or Rangers.

It’s also at least worth mentioning the possibility Kershaw decides not to play at all. Some may read into Friedman’s November statement that Kershaw “wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them” as a potential hint of retirement. In October, Kershaw had told reporters he hadn’t made any decision about his future (link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Turning 34 in March and still a well above-average pitcher, Kershaw still looks capable of pitching for multiple seasons beyond 2021, but retirement can’t be completely ruled out until he makes a definitive declaration about his desire to keep playing.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in with thoughts. Where is Kershaw likely to be in 2022?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Clayton Kershaw Be In 2022?

  • Dodgers 48% (7,448)
  • Rangers 26% (4,121)
  • Other team (specify in comments) 18% (2,837)
  • Retirement 8% (1,230)

Total votes: 15,636

 

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Evaluating The Marlins’ Rotation Trade Options

By | at December 28, 2021 5:33pm CDT

The Marlins’ abundance of riches in the rotation has led to trade speculation for quite some time, particularly given Miami’s desire to land a controllable outfielder. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last month that the Fish were amenable to dealing from their starting pitching surplus. They’ve since thinned out the depth a little bit by trading Zach Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal, but it’s possible they’re open to another move that addresses the position player group.

It stands to reason rival teams will be in contact with Marlins general manager Kim Ng and her staff whenever the transactions freeze comes to an end. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at which pitchers could come up in discussions:

Best Combination of Value/Potential Availability

According to Morosi, the Marlins’ early deliberations about the possibility of trading a starter revolved around their three hurlers with between three and four years of big league service time. Sandy Alcantara has since signed a record-setting extension for a pitcher in that service bucket, so he’s not going anywhere. That leaves two starters as Miami’s most straightforward candidates for this kind of move:

Pablo López — López has been quietly excellent over the past two seasons. He’s got a 3.26 ERA across 160 innings since the start of 2020, including a 3.07 mark this past season. There’s not much to nitpick in his statistical profile. The 25-year-old uses a five-pitch mix. He’s got plus control, misses a few more bats than average and — thanks mostly to one of the sport’s best changeups — rarely gives up hard contact. With three years of control and a modest $2.5MM projected arbitration salary, López would have a ton of trade value if he’d gotten through the 2021 campaign fully healthy.

Yet the situation’s complicated by a shoulder injury that cost him essentially the entire second half. López landed on the IL in mid-July and didn’t return until the final day of the season, when he worked just 1 2/3 innings in a deliberately abbreviated start. His velocity returned to peak levels and it’s possible López’s shoulder problem proves nothing more than a blip, but any team looking into an acquisition this offseason will surely do their due diligence on a medical evaluation.

Elieser Hernández — Hernández missed much of the 2021 campaign because of a pair of long-term injuries. He lost two months early in the year to biceps inflammation. In his first start back after that absence, he strained his right quad while running the bases and missed another couple months. Those absences limited him to 51 2/3 frames of 4.18 ERA ball. Hernández doesn’t throw hard, and he couldn’t sustain the massive 32.1% strikeout rate he posted over a six-start showing in 2020. But he still missed a decent amount of bats with both his slider and changeup, and he rarely hands out free passes.

Like López, he comes with three years of what should be affordable arbitration control. At age 26, Hernández has value, but it’s not at the same level as his rotation mate. In addition to his overall lack of volume over the past couple seasons, Hernández is a fly-ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, particularly on his fastball. That’s led to significant home run troubles even in the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park, and teams in more hitter-friendly environments may worry he’s too prone to the longball to be successful. Perhaps curtailing the use of his fastball and leaning more heavily on his solid secondary weapons could allow him to mitigate those concerns a bit.

Back-of-the-Rotation Depth Options

Braxton Garrett — Garrett’s stock has dipped since he was selected seventh overall in the 2016 draft. He’s made a few MLB starts over the past two seasons, though, and Garrett had a 3.89 ERA with decent strikeout and walk rates in Triple-A this past season. He’s not going to headline a deal for a controllable outfielder, but he could be of interest to clubs as a secondary or tertiary piece.

Nick Neidert — Neidert is in a similar bucket as Garrett. He’s a formerly well-regarded prospect who has had a decent amount of minor league success but hasn’t impressed in limited big league time. The righty rarely misses bats but possesses very strong control.

Cody Poteet — Potent debuted with seven starts this past season, working to a 4.99 ERA across 30 2/3 innings before suffering a season-ending MCL sprain. He’s not likely to have a ton of value and the Fish will probably hold onto him into the season, but he did miss a decent amount of bats for a sixth/seventh starter in his limited showing.

Highly-Regarded Young Pitchers/Top Prospects

It’d be a surprise if the Marlins trade anyone in this group — each of whom could see their value increase substantially if they take a reasonable developmental step next season. It’s not out of the question the Fish take calls on anyone in this group, but they’re perhaps more relevant as a reminder of the enviable collection of young pitching that could facilitate a deal involving someone else on the roster.

Edward Cabrera — Cabrera’s first seven MLB starts didn’t go as hoped. He’s one of the sport’s most highly-regarded pitching prospects and posted massive strikeout rates in the high minors though, and he averaged almost 97 MPH on his heater in the big leagues. It’s possible the Marlins consider moving Cabrera, but he’d likely have to be a key piece of a deal for a controllable star in the Cedric Mullins or Ketel Marte mold for that to happen.

Jesús Luzardo — The return from the A’s for Starling Marte at last summer’s trade deadline, Luzardo continued to struggle over the final couple months in Miami. The 2021 season was a disaster for the young southpaw, but he’s only a year removed from being ranked among the top ten overall prospects by Baseball America. The Marlins liked him enough to land him one-for-one for their star center fielder a few months ago, so it seems likely they’ll give him a chance at a rebound.

Max Meyer — The third overall pick out of the University of Minnesota in the 2020 draft, Meyer dominated at Double-A during his first pro season. He’s one of the sport’s top prospects. As with Cabrera, it’d be a surprise if he’s available and he’d only be part of a deal for a star.

Sixto Sánchez — Sánchez, a top prospect who headlined the J.T. Realmuto return from Philadelphia, impressed over his first seven MLB starts in 2020. He missed the entire 2021 campaign due to a shoulder issue that required surgery. He’s expected to be ready for next season, but it’s not an opportune time for the Marlins to consider a trade.

The Likely Unavailable All-Star

Nobody in the Marlins rotation would bring back more than Trevor Rogers. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the National League’s Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. Coming off a season in which he posted a 2.64 ERA/3.72 SIERA across 133 innings, Rogers looks like a potential top-of-the-rotation stalwart for years to come. He’s controllable through 2026 and would bring back an absolute haul — likely headlined by one of the sport’s top few position player prospects — if the Marlins ever decided to make him available. That’d be an incredibly bold bet on the strength of the other rotation arms, though, one which the front office probably wouldn’t give much thought.

López and Hernández are the Marlins’ best candidates for a pitcher-for-position player swap. Given the attrition rates of pitchers, it’s arguable the front office should hold onto as much depth as possible to give themselves plenty of cover for potential injuries or underperformance. Yet there are plenty of options of varying pedigree Ng and her staff could consider moving in the right deal, a testament to the organization’s commitment to building the pitching pipeline in recent years.

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Five-Year Deals For Free Agent Starting Pitchers Rarely End Well

By | at December 27, 2021 9:41pm CDT

Prior to the lockout this winter, three starting pitchers signed free agent deals for exactly five years:

  • Mariners signed Robbie Ray for five years, $115MM with an opt-out after third year
  • Blue Jays signed Kevin Gausman for five years, $110MM
  • Tigers signed Eduardo Rodriguez for five years, $77MM with an opt-out after second year

Free agent contracts of exactly this length are fairly rare.  We saw a pair of five-year starting pitcher deals in the 2019-20 offseason for Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner.  Before that, you have to go back to the 2015-16 offseason, when teams incredibly inked five of them.  Interestingly, Marcus Stroman signed a three-year deal prior to the lockout even though we predicted five

I think free agent starting pitchers signing five-year deals have some commonality: the combination of their ability and age resulted in enough market pressure for exactly that number of years, no more and no less.  I’d say it’s generally a pitcher who is considered good or very good, yet something short of an ace.  While it’s true that market conditions may result in a five-year deal for a pitcher in a certain offseason and not another, these guys still seem to fall within the same bracket.

Going back to Gil Meche‘s December 2006 contract with the Royals, 11 different free agent pitchers have signed five-year deals that are now completed.  Spoiler alert: very few of these ended well.  Stat note: ERA- is a park and league-adjusted version of ERA, where 100 is average and lower is better.

Jordan Zimmermann: five-year, $110MM deal with Tigers

  • Starts: 97
  • ERA-: 127
  • fWAR: 5.0
  • bWAR: 0.9
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 1, when Zimmermann posted a 4.87 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Zimmermann made three September outings in the shortened 2020 season.  He’d go on to make two appearances with the Brewers this year before retiring.  By measure of bWAR, Zimmermann’s performance was the second-worst of this sample.

Jeff Samardzija: five-year, $90MM deal with Giants

  • Starts: 110
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 6.9
  • bWAR: 7.1
  • When Regret Set In: Samardzija was solid in three of the five years, including the fourth.  So regret never really set in here.
  • How It Ended: Samardzija made four starts in the shortened season.  He has not pitched since.

Mike Leake: five-year, $80MM deal with Cardinals

  • Starts: 124
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 8.6
  • bWAR: 5.8
  • When Regret Set In: Year 1, when Leake posted a 4.69 ERA.  In August of Year 2, Leake cleared waivers and was traded to the Mariners along with $17MM.
  • How It Ended: Leake opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic, forgoing his salary.  He hasn’t pitched since September 24th, 2019.

Wei-Yin Chen: five-year, $80MM deal with Marlins

  • Starts: 53
  • ERA-: 129
  • fWAR: 2.1
  • bWAR: -0.6
  • When Regret Set In:  At some point in Year 1, in which Chen posted a 4.96 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Chen was released with a year remaining on his contract, with the Marlins eating $22MM in salary.  He signed a minor league deal with the Mariners but was released in June 2020.  Chen signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines and made four appearances in ’20.  He pitched for the Hanshin Tigers in 2021.  Chen’s Marlins contract was the worst of all of these five-year deals.

Ian Kennedy: five-year, $70MM deal with Royals

  • Starts: 86
  • ERA-: 102
  • fWAR: 3.9
  • bWAR: 6.3
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 2, when Kennedy posted a 5.38 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Kennedy was moved to the bullpen in the fourth year of the deal, saving 30 games.  He struggled in 14 relief innings in 2020 to finish out the contract.

Anibal Sanchez: five-year, $80MM deal with Tigers

  • Starts: 118
  • ERA-: 109
  • fWAR: 12.0
  • bWAR: 7.0
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 3, when Sanchez posted a 4.99 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Sanchez played out the contract with the Tigers and posted a 6.41 ERA in 2017, the final season.

C.J. Wilson: five-year, $77.5MM deal with Angels

  • Starts: 119
  • ERA-: 102
  • fWAR: 7.5
  • bWAR: 5.7
  • When Regret Set In: Wilson had a 3.89 ERA as late as Year 4 of the contract, so you could argue that regret didn’t set in until he had season-ending shoulder surgery in August of that year.
  • How It Ended: No one realized it at the time, but Wilson’s career was over after that August 2015 surgery and he’d be injured for all of Year 5.

Cliff Lee: five-year, $120MM deal with Phillies

  • Starts: 106
  • ERA-: 76
  • fWAR: 19.6
  • bWAR: 20.2
  • When Regret Set In/How It Ended: One of these things is not like the others, as Lee was an ace when he signed to remain with the Phillies.  Lee made his last start for the Phillies, and of his career, on July 31st of 2014 – three and a half years into the contract.  He left that trade deadline start with an elbow injury and never pitched again, yet he was so good in those three and a half years that it’s fair to say the Phillies never regretted the contract.

John Lackey: five-year, $82.5MM deal with Red Sox

  • Starts: 121
  • ERA-: 106
  • fWAR: 9.2
  • bWAR: 3.6
  • When Regret Set In: Quite soon, with Lackey posting a 4.40 ERA in Year 1 and a 6.41 mark in Year 2.  At that point, Lackey underwent Tommy John surgery.
  • How It Ended: Lackey’s time with the Red Sox ended with a bit of a resurgence, as he posted a 3.60 ERA in 21 Year 5 starts before being traded at the deadline to the Cardinals for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly.  What’s more, the Red Sox included a clause in Lackey’s contract that triggered a league-minimum sixth-year option upon the Tommy John procedure.  This turned into a six-year deal in which the Cardinals received a stellar 2015 campaign from Lackey for just $500K.

A.J. Burnett: five-year, $82.5MM deal with Yankees

  • Starts: 159
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 12.2
  • bWAR: 8.3
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 2, when Burnett posted a 5.26 ERA.
  • How It Ended: After three seasons of Burnett, the Yankees shipped him to the Pirates and kicked in $20MM of the $33MM still owed to him.  Burnett flourished with the change of scenery.

Gil Meche: five-year, $55MM deal with Royals

  • Starts: 100
  • ERA-: 96
  • fWAR: 8.6
  • bWAR: 10.2
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 3, when Meche posted a 5.09 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Meche underwent shoulder surgery in July of Year 4, and the Royals planned to use him in relief in the final season of the contract.  Instead, Meche felt that he didn’t deserve the $12MM he still had coming.  He retired, letting the Royals off the hook for all of the money.

Conclusion

It’s not fair to take this 11-pitcher sample and say that the deals for Ray, Gausman, and Rodriguez won’t work out.  Teams are evaluating pitchers better, and the Chen contract doesn’t have anything to do with how Ray will hold up.  Perhaps we can set the bar for a successful five-year starting pitcher contract at 10 total WAR: 3 in Year 1, 2.5 in Year 2, 2.0 in Year 3, 1.5 in Year 4, and 1.0 in Year 5.  By fWAR, Lee, Burnett, and Sanchez were able to accomplish that.  By bWAR, only Lee and Meche got there.  Over the life of their contracts, only those two produced an ERA better than league average.

How many of these 11 contracts ended with a useful pitcher still working for the signing team at the end of Year 5?  Zero.  However, five-year deals are given out because of market pressure, not because the team expects five strong years out of the pitcher.  Lee produced 17.7 WAR in the first three years of his deal, so the rest didn’t matter.  Meche, Wilson, Samardzija, and Sanchez started off their contracts with a pair of strong seasons.  Zack Wheeler isn’t in this sample but he’s well on his way to 10+ WAR for the Phillies despite a shortened 2020 season.  Madison Bumgarner, however, seems like a long shot.

What do the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Tigers really expect out of Ray, Gausman, and Rodriguez?  If they looked at these comparables, they’re likely expecting two strong years and hopefully a third.  If Ray or Rodriguez sees fit to opt out, the clubs will likely have gotten the best of them and could duck a few decline years.

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Have Certain Free Agent Former MLB Stars Already Played Their Last Game?

By | at December 27, 2021 2:32pm CDT

This year, we’ve seen former quality MLB players such as Joakim Soria, Daniel Murphy, Cody Allen, Nick Markakis, Hector Rondon, Jordan Zimmermann, Welington Castillo, and Nate Jones decide to retire.  All current MLB free agents are experiencing the first work stoppage of their career right now.  Should the lockout end sometime in February, there could be a burst of concentrated free agent signings and trades unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

While that will likely work out just fine for the likes of Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Freddie Freeman, a free agent frenzy could also include a cold shoulder toward former MLB stars nearing the end of their careers.  Instead of putting the finishing touches on rosters with a sprinkling of February or March one-year MLB deals and minor league deals, front offices will be working to acquire many significant star and mid-tier free agents and trade targets when the lockout ends.  It stands to reason that many veterans with declining skills will be told they need to wait even longer before a team is willing to commit.  That could leave former stars without jobs.  Rich Hill has a deal with the Red Sox heading into his age-42 season, but let’s take a look at eight elder statesmen who may at least consider retirement.

  • Albert Pujols: 42 in January, Pujols mashed lefties and gave the Dodgers a veteran presence off the bench this year.  Back in October, he said, “I don’t think my time to retire has come. I don’t want to sit in my house next year, knowing that I can still keep playing.”  Pujols is 21 home runs shy of 700 for his career, and he’d be aided by the addition of the NL DH.
  • Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman, 37, had an October send-off at Nationals Park but hasn’t publicly made a decision about retirement.  At a press conference, he said, “Do I want to keep playing? I think I can keep playing. I think I had a really good year with the role that I was supposed to do, and now it’s a decision of whether I want to keep doing that, or do I want to be around my family a little bit more. I think the only thing I kind of told Davey is I started the season around 50/50 and it hasn’t gone up.”  GM Mike Rizzo said Zimmerman has an MLB contract with the team as long as he wants it.
  • Brett Gardner: Gardner, 38, scuffled with the bat this year but wasn’t much worse than he was in 2016 or ’18.  He wants to return to the Yankees in 2022, but chose a $1.15MM buyout over a $2.3MM player option.
  • Nelson Cruz: Cruz, 41, has been defying age for many years but managed only a 96 wRC+ in 238 plate appearances after a trade to the Rays.  Before the season, Cruz said “retirement is not on my mind,” and now he might have the chance to DH in the National League.  Cruz is tied with Jeff Bagwell and Vladimir Guerrero at 40th on the all-time home run leaderboard with 449.  It’s easy to see Cruz striving for the 500 club, which currently has 28 members.
  • Jed Lowrie: Lowrie, 38 in April, played only nine games from 2019-20, encompassing his contract with the Mets.  This year, surprisingly, he played 139 games for the A’s.  Lowrie struggled in the season’s final two months, but thus far he’s given no indication he’s looking to retire.
  • Zack Greinke: Greinke, 38, gave up 20 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his final four regular season appearances, ballooning his ERA from 3.41 to 4.16.  He battled through COVID-19 and neck soreness, but capped his season by giving the Astros four scoreless innings to start Game 4 of the World Series.  Asked after the game if he wants to continue playing, Greinke declined to answer.  Back in March, Greinke said, “Hopefully, I’ll pitch a lot longer still, but a lot of things come into play on whether you’re allowed to pitch as long as you want to and stuff.”
  • J.A. Happ: Happ, 39, posted a 6.77 ERA in 19 starts for the Twins, but managed a 4.00 mark in 11 outings after being traded to the Cardinals.  He’s given no indication about retirement.
  • Jon Lester: Lester, 38 in January, also pitched better upon a trade to the Cardinals this year.  Asked in September about playing in 2022, Lester was reportedly noncommittal.  He reached his 200th career win on September 20th.
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If Not The Braves, Where Could Freddie Freeman Sign?

By | at December 27, 2021 12:13pm CDT

32-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman, once of baseball’s best hitters, entered the lockout without a home.  After 12 years with the Braves and coming off a championship, the assumption is that Atlanta remains the favorite.

The last information we have on Freeman’s negotiations with the Braves dates back to mid-November.  On November 12th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today put it this way, reporting from the GM Meetings in Carlsbad:

“Free agent Freddie Freeman was on the mind of every team seeking a first baseman, with Freeman rejecting Atlanta’s five-year, $135 million offer, and seeking closer to a six-year, $200 million deal. Yet, you couldn’t find a soul who believes Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta.”

Jon Heyman of MLB Network generally concurred in a report four days later, writing, “Last heard 6th year was still at issue in Freeman/Braves talks but situation is fluid and they’ve still got to be considered the favorite.”  A few weeks after that, Heyman suggested the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are “trying to pry” Freeman away from the Braves, even though those clubs find it unlikely.

Will the Braves or Freeman crack on the sixth year issue once the lockout ends?  Would Freeman take a lower AAV than the expected $30MM+ to convince the Braves to commit to a sixth year, perhaps at something like six years and $160MM?  Whatever needs to happen to get it done, the impending lockout did not create enough pressure to result in an agreement.  You’d have to think Freeman’s chances of leaving the Braves are around their highest point, whatever those chances are.  The Braves have let it get to a point where Freeman has no team, and other teams likely made offers.

Let’s assume something like MLBTR’s six-year, $180MM projection would be needed to lure Freeman away from the Braves.  Signing Freeman would also likely require draft pick forfeiture.  If not the Braves, which teams could reasonably do that contract?  Let’s start by assessing Heyman’s trio.

  • Dodgers: The Dodgers doing a six-year contract for another team’s 32-year-old free agent?  Andrew Friedman has been in charge for seven years now, and he’s given out four-plus years to another team’s free agent two times: four years to Brandon McCarthy in 2014, and four years to AJ Pollock in 2019.  Under Friedman, the club did go to four years to retain Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and five to keep Kenley Jansen in free agency.  They also notably did a 12-year extension with Mookie Betts before he played a regular season game with the team.  But six years to Freeman along with the forfeiture of the Dodgers’ second and fifth round draft picks?  I just don’t see it.  Signing Freeman would also require Max Muncy to spend more time at second or third base, but the addition of an NL DH could alleviate a potential logjam.
  • Yankees: The Yankees basically did nothing to improve the team prior to the lockout, so there’s the idea they could add Freeman’s sweet-swinging lefty bat in lieu of their more pressing need at shortstop.  Even if Freeman costs $180MM, that’s still likely over $100MM less than Carlos Correa.  The team could and would likely have to exceed a new 2022 competitive balance tax threshold to sign Freeman, but they may be willing to do so after staying below the line in 2021.  Adding Freeman would do nothing to solve the shortstop issue, and it would also crowd out Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres to a degree.  One of them could be traded to accommodate Freeman.  Still, Freeman is an imperfect fit for a team that is also in need of rotation help.
  • Blue Jays: Speaking of imperfect Freeman fits, the Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base.  Assuming Freeman doesn’t intend to mostly shelve his first baseman’s glove, Vlad Jr. would have to spend most of his time at designated hitter – fresh off a second-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger award.  A shift back to third base for Guerrero would seem even more risky.  It’s also worth noting that signing Freeman would permanently plug up Toronto’s DH spot, where George Springer spent nearly half his games in 2021.  I think the Blue Jays could swing the financial commitment to Freeman, and I get the idea of replacing Marcus Semien‘s bat, but this is not a great roster fit.

So we’ve looked at the three teams Heyman linked to Freeman, and none seem like a perfect fit.  Let’s look at all the other even slightly plausible options.

    • White Sox: They’ve got Jose Abreu at first base, but only through 2022.  They’ve also got flexibility in the DH spot, so the roster fit could work.  Financially, though, I’d be quite surprised to see the White Sox make this level of commitment given their current payroll situation.
    • Tigers: There’s a sense that the Tigers have finished their major spending after the Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez signings.  But man, would Freeman be a game-changer in Detroit.  They’ve got Jonathan Schoop at first base and Miguel Cabrera at DH, neither of whom should block a player like Freeman.  Freeman could get in the way of top prospect Spencer Torkelson, who played more first base than third this year in the minors.  Plus, the club has Jeimer Candelario at third base.  I don’t think the Tigers will pursue Freeman, but if they had the desire to spend the money I think the roster could be figured out.
    • Red Sox: The Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec at first base, who came on very strong in the season’s final two months.  They’ve got J.D. Martinez at DH, but only for one more year.  They also have first base prospect Triston Casas.  Roster-wise, the Red Sox have good options at first for the long-term, though no established Major Leaguers.  They also have a GM who’s yet to give a free agent more than $14MM.  As with Andrew Friedman, this just doesn’t seem like Chaim Bloom’s way of doing things.
    • Astros: The Astros have Yuli Gurriel at first base, but only for one more year.  They’ve got Yordan Alvarez as the regular DH.  Signing Freeman would probably necessitate a Gurriel trade.  The Astros do have the payroll flexibility to accommodate Freeman, but they seem like yet another big market club that would shy away from signing a corner infielder through age 37 – especially since they don’t seem to want to pay Carlos Correa past age 31.
    • Angels:  The Angels are committed to Shohei Ohtani as DH for two more years, and they’d surely like to lock up the AL MVP beyond that.  And Jared Walsh took over first base quite capably for the Halos this year.  Like the Yankees, shortstop and the rotation are more pressing needs.  It’s difficult to see Freeman landing here.
    • Mariners: The Mariners have Ty France at first base, plus Evan White under contract through 2025.  They don’t have a set DH, but Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens are projected to spend time there in 2022.  France could potentially play some second or third base, if the Mariners decided to accommodate Freeman.  The Mariners spent big on Robbie Ray and traded for Adam Frazier, but they’re known to be in the hunt for a significant position player addition.  I consider Freeman within the realm of possibility, though the more versatile Kris Bryant would fit better if the price tag is similar.
    • Rangers: The Rangers have Nathaniel Lowe at first base, and no set DH.  Lowe had a nice year for a player who hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time, but bumping him to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be problematic.  It’d be staggering for the Rangers to add Freeman after already committing $561.2MM to four free agents, though they could afford it.  Pitching has to be a higher priority for this team, but who’s to say they can’t do both?
    • Cubs: The Cubs have Frank Schwindel penciled in at first base after a strong couple of months, and no NL team has an incumbent DH.  Schwindel is 29 and there was nothing special about his exit velocity or launch angle even in his successful stint.  Pushing Schwindel to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be an issue, and the team did make a statement with the Marcus Stroman signing.  But that was a surprisingly short three-year deal, and with Freeman we’re talking about double that term to a player who is 19 months older.  Freeman just doesn’t fit with the long-term payroll flexibility GM Jed Hoyer enjoys.
    • Cardinals: The team has Paul Goldschmidt under contract for three more years, but again, an NL DH would open things up.  Signing Freeman would mean stretching payroll to a franchise record, and I doubt the team considers first base/DH a position of need.
    • Marlins: The Marlins have Jesus Aguilar under control for next year, but he’s not much of an impediment for a player like Freeman.  Here, it’s all about money.  A team with a $65MM payroll can afford Freeman, but Avisail Garcia‘s $53MM deal seemed like the Marlins’ big free agency strike.  Freeman would require more than triple that commitment.
    • Mets: The Mets have to be listed here in the name of, “How crazy can Steve Cohen get?”  Crazy enough to add Freeman to the $254.5MM the club already committed to free agents this winter, while also forfeiting the 14th pick in next year’s draft?  Even with a more significant need in the rotation?  I don’t expect Cohen to steal Freeman away from the Braves, but it’d be the ultimate power move.
    • Phillies: The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins for two more years.  He’s been an excellent hitter, though he will be coming off lower abdomen surgery.  The Phillies’ needs at shortstop, third base, left field, and center field are much more stark than at first base/DH.  They also have a fairly bloated payroll situation.  I suppose Dave Dombrowski could simplify and try to sign Freeman in the name of adding the top bat, but it’d be a surprising choice.
    • Nationals: One year of Josh Bell wouldn’t block Freeman.  And should the Nats really take any kind of step back with only three more years of control of Juan Soto?  But it just doesn’t sound like the Nationals are looking to take on a commitment of this nature this winter.
    • Rockies: They’ve got C.J. Cron at first base, but could easily move him to DH for Freeman.  The Rockies have relatively modest commitments, which drop quite a bit as of 2024.  As a team with real and surprising interest in Kris Bryant, we should consider a possible pursuit of Freeman as well.
    • Padres: Freeman is an excellent roster fit for the Padres, who have an underperforming Eric Hosmer locked in through 2025.  The team’s payroll is pushing $200MM already, so GM A.J. Preller would need to get creative and move contracts to fit Freeman in.  It’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
    • Giants: The Giants haven’t really demonstrated their financial might yet, committing $99.4MM to four free agents without topping Anthony DeSclafani‘s $36MM.  DH is the ideal spot for the injury-prone Brandon Belt.  Farhan Zaidi does seem to come from the increasingly common GM school of thought that eschews long-term free agent commitments, even in big markets.  He’d have to buck that trend to sign Freeman, but otherwise it’s reasonable enough.
    • Brewers: The Brewers are a contending team with Rowdy Tellez penciled in at first base, so they at least warrant a mention.  It’s just hard to see them outbidding the field to land Freeman in that $180MM range.  I could write something very similar for the Guardians.

You’ve seen my opinions; now it’s your turn (direct poll link for app users here).

Assuming Freddie Freeman leaves the Braves, where will he sign?

  • Yankees 22% (2,216)
  • Dodgers 19% (1,917)
  • Padres 7% (659)
  • Blue Jays 6% (623)
  • Red Sox 5% (458)
  • Angels 4% (440)
  • Giants 4% (423)
  • Mariners 3% (344)
  • Brewers 3% (308)
  • Cubs 3% (299)
  • Mets 3% (280)
  • Rangers 2% (219)
  • Phillies 2% (165)
  • Tigers 1% (146)
  • Nationals 1% (132)
  • White Sox 1% (124)
  • Cardinals 1% (122)
  • Pirates 1% (122)
  • Guardians 1% (116)
  • Astros 1% (114)
  • Orioles 1% (108)
  • Twins 1% (100)
  • Reds 1% (84)
  • Rockies 1% (76)
  • Rays 1% (67)
  • Marlins 1% (64)
  • Athletics 1% (60)
  • Diamondbacks 1% (58)
  • Royals 1% (57)

Total votes: 9,901

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Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

By | at December 26, 2021 1:46pm CDT

Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Who Would You Rather Sign?

  • Nick Castellanos 54% (4,306)
  • Kyle Schwarber 46% (3,665)

Total votes: 7,971

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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at December 25, 2021 9:00pm CDT

The Rays had a busy couple of weeks prior to the MLB lockout, but there’s still work to be done when transactions resume. Here’s a look at where things currently stand and what might be next in Tampa Bay.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wander Franco, SS: $182MM through 2032 (includes $2MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2033)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $19MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $14.5MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brooks Raley, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: $8MM through 2022
  • Mike Zunino, C: $7MM through 2022
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B/DH: $3.2MM through 2022 (arb-eligible through 2023 season)
  • Total 2022 guarantees: $41.95MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $243.7MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

The Rays got a huge portion of their offseason lifting done prior to the lockout, extending Wander Franco on a record-setting contract for a player with under a year of service time. By guaranteeing Franco $182MM through the 2032 season, Tampa Bay solidified him as the face of the franchise and locked in a burgeoning star who turned in one of the more memorable rookie performances we’ve seen in recent years.

As is typical with the Rays, their early dealings involved plenty of tinkering with their arbitration class as well as what the team hopes will be some bargain additions on the pitching side. Gone are super-utility man Joey Wendle — traded to the Marlins for outfield prospect Kameron Misner — and lefty masher Jordan Luplow, who was sent to the D-backs for minor league infielder Ronny Simon. The Rays also parted ways with lefties Adam Conley (outrighted), Ryan Sherriff (claimed by the Phillies) and Dietrich Enns (granted his release to sign in Japan). Additionally, pre-arb righties Brent Honeywell (A’s) and Louis Head (Marlins) were swapped for cash.

Incoming arms include former Cy Young reclamation hopeful Corey Kluber, spin-rate standout Brooks Raley, bolstering the rotation and bullpen, respectively. There’s work to be done on both sides of the pitching staff still, however, particularly with ace Tyler Glasnow likely out for the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery. The Rays will also be without Yonny Chirinos early in the year after he fractured his elbow late in the 2021 season while rehabbing from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Lefty Brendan McKay, too, is a question mark after recently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.

Among the potential members of the rotation — Kluber, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane Baz and Luis Patino — only Yarbrough and McClanahan topped 110 innings this past season. Kluber managed just 80 innings and didn’t pitch particularly well in six starts upon returning from the IL late in the season. Yarbrough, meanwhile, posted a career-high 155 innings but also a career-worst 5.11 ERA in that time. Baz dazzled at Double-A, Triple-A and in three big league starts late in the season, but the ballyhooed top prospect was also hit hard in his lone postseason outing. He could follow McClanahan’s lead as a late-season debut who carves out a concrete rotation role the following year — but there’s also still some uncertainty surrounding both him and Patino, another touted top pitching prospect.

Suffice it to say, with plenty of talent but just as many questions surrounding the young arms on the staff, the Rays figure to be on the lookout for some further pitching help. They’re not a likely fit for high-priced free agents still sitting on the market (e.g. Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw), but plenty of veterans who may command one-year deals remain unsigned (e.g. Matthew Boyd, Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards and old friend Drew Smyly). Similarly, it’d be a surprise to see the Rays trade for a relatively high-priced starter (e.g. Sean Manaea, Luis Castillo), but president of baseball ops Erik Neander, newly minted GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the Rays staff will be on the lookout for under-the-radar rotation adds (much like they found with Rasmussen during the 2021 season).

Of course, if the Rays were able to cull the current payroll a bit — projected at nearly $84MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez — perhaps there’d be a bit more room for an additional pitching splash. Tampa Bay reportedly discussed Kevin Kiermaier in trades at the same time Joey Wendle was being shopped, and it stands to reason that Kiermaier will again be made available post-lockout. While the Rays have explored Kiermaier trades for years now, the current market circumstances suggest a trade is now likelier than ever.

Kiermaier is entering the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract extension and, at $12MM (plus a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 option) is the team’s most expensive player in 2022. Excellent as Kiermaier is with the glove, Tampa Bay could move him and still boast arguably the best defensive outfield in baseball, with Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips and center field prospect Josh Lowe (already on the 40-man roster) all possessing high-end defensive skills.

Beyond that, there are several teams who could be eyeing center field upgrades, including the Phillies, Marlins, Astros and Cubs, to name a few. The Rays might have to pay down a bit of Kiermaier’s salary in a deal, although speculatively speaking, they could alternatively look to swap him for a comparably priced player who better fits the team’s needs (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Jake Odorizzi).

While Kiermaier’s salary makes him a more obvious trade candidate, the Rays could also at least entertain interest in Margot instead, given that he’ll be a free agent next winter. A standout defender in his own right, Margot would hold similar or perhaps even broader appeal to teams with outfield vacancies and a preference for defensive upgrades.

Broadly speaking, when looking ahead for potential Rays moves, it’s always best to consider the possibility of them dealing from positions of great organizational depth. At the moment, that means outfield and perhaps middle infielders. Franco’s extension locks him into the lineup for more than a decade, and Brandon Lowe is signed through at least 2024 on a highly reasonably deal that includes a pair of team options. Meanwhile, the Rays still have well-regarded shortstop prospects like Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards. Both Walls and Brujan have made their big league debuts already. Dealing young prospects of that nature is never easy, and the Rays certainly wouldn’t mind keeping them as bench pieces or upper-level depth options, but they’ll surely receive interest in that perceived surplus. Teams that seek shortstop help in the long run but aren’t willing to pay one of Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, in particular, will be keenly intrigued.

Another general rule when looking for potential Rays moves is to follow the money. In this arbitration class, that means the aforementioned Margot and, perhaps more interestingly, Glasnow. The loss of Glasnow, who had Tommy John surgery Aug. 4, is a major blow to the Rays’ 2022 hopes. The team tendered him a contract knowing he’ll miss most or all of the season, which is only sensible given that he’s controllable through the 2023 campaign. That said, a projected $5.6MM salary for Glasnow amounts largely to dead money for the Rays in ’22, and Glasnow figures to earn that same sum (or a slight bit more, if he makes it back to the mound this year) in 2023 — his final year of team control.

Paying $11-12MM for what’s effectively one season of Glasnow (2023) is hardly burdensome, but for a low-payroll club like the Rays, it’s also not ideal. Tampa Bay surely wouldn’t make a salary-dump deal for a pitcher of this caliber; if the money were an issue he could’ve been non-tendered, so that’s clearly not the case. But, other teams with deeper pockets could also try to opportunistically bolster their 2023 hopes by giving the Rays some immediate help in 2022 at the cost of acquiring Glasnow for the 2023 season. It’s not necessarily a likely outcome, but larger-payroll clubs will undoubtedly inquire at the very least.

An underrated but nonetheless enviable aspect of the Rays is the team’s bench mix. Tampa Bay’s reserves figure to include a blend of versatile defenders (Walls, Brujan, Josh Lowe) and switch-hitters (Walls, Brujan, backup catcher Francisco Mejia) who currently or very recently ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. There’s room for third baseman Yandy Diaz and/or first baseman Ji-Man Choi to be pushed into a part-time role if either Brujan or Walls forces the team to adjust. And, with Franco able to handle third base, Brujan able to handle three infield spots, Brandon Lowe capable of playing second, first or in the outfield, Diaz capable of playing both corners — there’s a virtually limitless number of lineup permutations that could emerge from this grouping.

Whenever play resumes, the Rays will find themselves in a strong position. They already have a deep and talented MLB roster that’ll be anchored by a premium defense and one of the game’s most exciting young talents, Franco. The rotation has its share of question marks, but that’s true on a semi-regular basis and was perhaps never more true than in 2021, when Tampa Bay still went on to win 100 games.

The Rays could take the current iteration of their roster, as-is, into the 2022 season and likely be competitive in the American League East. The front office, however, could also elect to explore trades from the considerable outfield and middle-infield depth, perhaps dropping payroll a bit and then using that combination of trades and increased resources to further supplement the pitching staff. The Rays always have a fairly broad outlook, and that won’t change after the lockout. Whichever path Neander, Bendix & Co. choose to walk, the result figures to be a roster that may lack in name value but will make up for it in talent. In other words: business as usual for the Rays.

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2021-22 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By | at December 25, 2021 7:30pm CDT

The Marlins sprinted through much of their offseason dealings in the week prior to the MLB lockout, making their biggest free-agent signing under the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group, swinging a pair of trades and extending their top arm. What’s left when the transaction freeze lifts?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $56MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option in 2027)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $53MM through 2025 (including $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10MM through 2023
  • Anthony Bass, RHP: $4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
  • $3MM owed annually to Yankees, through 2027, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
  • Total 2022 salary commitments: $26.5MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $142MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Miami’s four-year, $53MM contract with Avisail Garcia crossed one of the team’s top items off the wishlist, adding a power-hitting corner outfielder to a lineup that ranked 28th in the Majors in home runs this past season. The four-year term was a surprisingly big bet on a player who does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has, in two of the past seasons, seen his end-of-year results at the plate clock in well below average. Garcia has hit well in the other three of those five campaigns, and the cumulative result is a solid .278/.335/.464 slash (113 wRC+).

Joining him as newcomers in the lineup will be former Rays infielder Joey Wendle and former Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings. Neither will add much in the way of pop, but Wendle gives the Fish a true super utility option who’s posted a .271/.326/.425 slash over his past 685 plate appearances. Wendle can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base quite well, and the Marlins could give him some outfield reps as well. He’ll be in the lineup more often than not, even if he won’t have a set everyday position.

Stallings, meanwhile, gives the Marlins one of the best defensive backstops in the game and a high-end framer to work with their young pitching staff. He’s hit .246/.333/.371 across the past two seasons and will serve as a major upgrade, on both sides of the ball, over the since-traded Jorge Alfaro (dealt to the Padres on Dec. 1).

Acquiring three new bats obviously represents a pretty sizable chunk of the Marlins’ offseason lifting, but they’re not done shopping just yet. General manager Kim Ng has already made clear that she hopes to add another outfielder to the bunch. Center field is still somewhat up in the air, though Ng said after signing Garcia that the Marlins believe he can play center if needed. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, that’d open the possibility of the Marlins pursuing another corner-outfield option, although playing Garcia in center seems suboptimal from a defensive standpoint. Miami has been tied to Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario, but Castellanos and Schwarber are likely beyond their price range.

Adding another corner option and playing Garcia in center would be something of a surprise, but the free-agent market lacks a true, everyday option in center at this point. There are some center fielders available (e.g. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, Albert Almora Jr.), but none who profile as everyday options offensively. Meanwhile, there are plenty of corner bats who have some experience in center (e.g. Rosario, Joc Pederson), but none who’d profile as a regular in center from a defensive perspective.

If there’s one corner outfielder in particular who makes sense in Miami, it’s perhaps NPB star Seiya Suzuki, whose posting window will resume once the transaction freeze lifts. A star with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp, Suzuki will sign with a big league team in advance of his age-27 season. For a team that’s looking to continue improving but won’t be a division favorite in 2022, Suzuki is an ideal add. He’ll still be in his prime several years down the road, perhaps when Miami’s prospect core has further bolstered the MLB roster. There’s risk in signing a star player who is yet untested against MLB pitching, but that uncertainty also helps to tamp down the price point. Since 2018, Suzuki has batted .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He just won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in right field this past season. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, Suzuki becomes a much more interesting name to ponder.

However, the most straightforward path for the Marlins finish off their outfield would be to add a center fielder via the trade market, though the few available options would be tough to pry from their current teams. The Orioles and Pirates will at least listen to offers for Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds, for instance, but both players are controlled four more years and would come with through-the-roof asking prices. It’s a similar story with Arizona’s Ketel Marte, who’s guaranteed $8MM in 2022 before the team has a $10MM club option for 2023 and a $12MM club option for 2024. He’s a bit more expensive and has one fewer year of control, but Marte is the most established player of that trio.

The Marlins do have a wealth of young pitching and managed to acquire Wendle and Stallings without dealing from their very best young arms, but any of Mullins, Marte or Reynolds would require parting with several young talents, likely headlined by a pair of legitimate top prospects.

There could be other, less-talked-about options to pursue. Oakland’s Ramon Laureano will miss the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban, but that could perhaps drop the price on him a bit. He’s controlled another three seasons. Kevin Kiermaier will surely be available once again, and while he wouldn’t provide the offense the Fish are hoping to add, he’d follow the Stallings mold in providing one of the most notable defensive upgrades possible.

Speculating further, Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal — they’ve certainly acquired plenty of other former Yankees. Or, perhaps they could go in the other direction and buy low on a former top prospect like Seattle’s Taylor Trammell, who has yet to establish himself and may already be squeezed out of the long-term outlook with the Mariners. There’s a match to be made between the pitching-rich Marlins and the Twins, too, if Miami is comfortable playing Max Kepler in center field regularly.

Whatever route the Marlins go in the outfield, they’ll surely want to keep some playing time free for 24-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 home runs in just 251 plate appearances as a rookie this past season. Sanchez’s 31.1% strikeout rate will need to come down, but he slashed .251/.319/.489 (116 wRC+), securing himself a lengthier look moving forward. Also in line for a larger look is 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz, who hit .296/.356/.427 (albeit with a rather fortunate .380 average on balls in play) after coming over from the Astros in the Yimi Garcia trade. Former top prospect Monte Harrison is out of minor league options and could soon be out of opportunities if and when Miami adds another outfielder, given the options in line ahead of him.

That’s a lot of focus on one outfield spot for Miami, but that’s due largely to the fact that the lineup is otherwise mostly set. Stallings is locked in at catcher, and the Marlins have Jesus Aguilar (first base), Jazz Chisholm (second base), Miguel Rojas (shortstop) and Brian Anderson (third base) rounding out the infield. The aforementioned Wendle and fellow infielder/outfielder Jon Berti provide backup all around the field, while underrated slugger Garrett Cooper and prospect Lewin Diaz provide backups at first base.

In the event the DH is added to the National League, Aguilar could spend more time there in deference to the defensively superior Diaz. If Diaz needs more time in Triple-A, the Marlins could simply let Aguilar and Cooper share first base/DH duties. There’s perhaps room for another addition here to deepen the lineup, but don’t expect the Marlins to break the bank and sign Castellanos, Schwarber or another bat of that magnitude.

In the rotation, the Marlins are largely set, unless they want to bring in a veteran on a minor league deal just for additional depth purposes. Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM extension that set a record for pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service time, will anchor the staff after ranking fourth in the Majors with 205 2/3 innings pitched this past season. He’ll be followed by breakout lefty Trevor Rogers, who notched a 2.64 ERA through 25 starts as a rookie in 2021. Righties Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez have spots largely assured, health permitting. Lefty Jesus Luzardo may have the inside edge on the fifth spot, but flamethrowing top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera will get their opportunities in 2022 as well.

Even beyond that top seven, the Marlins have enviable depth. Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man roster and all have some big league time under their belts already. The Fish also still have 2020 No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer rising through the ranks. Fellow top prospect Jake Eder will miss 2022 due to Tommy John surgery but is highly touted in his own regard. Right-hander Eury Perez elevated his profile with a huge 2021 season in A-ball, and lefty Dax Fulton is also well-regarded.

Some of those arms — particularly those already on the 40-man — could end up in the bullpen, which is the other area the Marlins could look to upgrade. Dylan Floro, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass and Richard Bleier are all locks for the ‘pen. Lefty Steven Okert may have earned a 2022 spot as well. Still, there’s no shortage of relief arms available on the market — and the Marlins have spent on some veteran arms at the back of the relief corps in recent offseasons. Sergio Romo, Brandon Kintzler and Bass were all signed as free agents. It’s doubtful Miami would spend at the top of the remaining market (i.e. Kenley Jansen), but another modest one- or two-year deal for an underappreciated veteran seems plenty possible.

Whenever offseason activity finally resumes, the Marlins will still have some work to do — even if they’re not as active as they were in the days leading up to the shutdown. Look for Miami to cast a wide net as they seek one final outfield piece, and don’t be surprised if teams come calling on some of their starting pitchers, given that arguably unrivaled level of depth.

The NL East features the reigning World Series champs, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper) and perhaps the most aggressive owner in the sport right now (the Mets’ Steve Cohen), making it a tough time for the Marlins to be looking to turn the corner. They’ll face a tough road, but with another savvy addition or two and some strides from the young arms on the roster, a playoff push in 2022 isn’t completely out of the question.

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2021-22 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at December 25, 2021 5:00pm CDT

The Dodgers were once again a tier-one baseball club in 2021, but their streak of eight consecutive division titles came to an end, and their efforts to repeat were quashed in the NLCS.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $12MM option for RHP Joe Kelly, opting instead to pay a $4MM buyout
  • Bauer declined an option to trigger an opt-out clause

Free Agents

The career talent present on the Dodgers’ list of departing free agents is somewhat remarkable. It’s also somewhat misleading, as Pujols, Kershaw, Duffy, Hamels, et al, aren’t exactly in their prime, nor were they inner circle contributors to the club in 2021. Kershaw did his part, contributing 22 starts with a solid, if not Kershawian 3.55 ERA/3.00 FIP across 121 2/3 innings. That places him third on the team in innings, so he did his par. That said, by the time the playoffs rolled around, his year was done.

Bottom line: there are significant losses represented on that list, most notably thus far, Seager, Scherzer, and to a lesser extent, Knebel. Seager seemed destined to walk after the acquisition of Trea Turner at the trade deadline, though without him they’ll be pressured to pony up for the speedy ex-National, who is a free agent after next season. President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman values flexibility in his roster construction, and that’s evident in his handling of Seager. We could see a similar saga play itself out next winter, as the Dodgers could turn to Gavin Lux and/or Jacob Amaya rather than commit to a mega-contract for Turner.

But that’s tomorrow’s problem. For now, Trea Turner, Lux, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy make up a star-studded, if injury-prone starting infield. The health and age questions surrounding this group made the re-signing of Chris Taylor all the more crucial. With Taylor back in the fold for a reasonable $15MM per, the Dodgers can feel relatively stable with their infield group. Matt Beaty and Zach McKinstry are bench options on the Major League roster, while Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts give manager Dave Roberts extended flexibility because of their ability and willingness to move to the dirt on occasion.

All that said, there’s still room for another bat. Assuming there will be a designated hitter in the National League, the Dodgers could add a third baseman while allowing J. Turner to age gracefully into a bat-only role. Barring the addition of one of the star level bats remaining in free agency (think Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman), the Dodgers could still make a play for a veteran utility man, who wouldn’t have to play every day, but could capably pinch-hit and fill-in at multiple positions around the diamond. To their benefit, having T. Turner, Taylor, and Lux means they’re probably covered at shortstop, which frees Friedman to lean more liberally in the direction of a bench bat. Speculatively speaking, someone like Asdrubal Cabrera could be a fit, but they could also bring back Albert Pujols or look at other veteran minimum types while waiting for youngsters like Amaya, Michael Busch, or Miguel Vargas to play themselves into a role.

In the outfield, Betts, Bellinger, and AJ Pollock line up as the opening day starters, but they could absolutely look to add another bat here as well. Taylor and Lux can play the outfield, as can Beaty and others on the roster, but Friedman is more likely to have too many options than not enough. Don’t be surprised if there’s another name added to this mix after the lockout.

The big picture of the position player side of things is that they aren’t as deep as in years past, but they’re still in better shape than most. And yet, if they’re looking to grow the overall depth on this club, there are arguably more bats available in free agency than arms,  so we could see the Dodgers overindulge on this side of the ball to compensate for the losses on the pitching side.

Because for the first time in years really, there are reasons to wonder about the overall quality of the Dodgers’ pitching staff.

The rotation is the biggest area of concern right now. After all, the two most surprising decisions from the Dodgers so far this winter both relate to the rotation. Not issuing a qualifying offer to Kershaw definitely zagged from expectations, as did their not making a bigger push to retain Scherzer. Kershaw could still return, but if not, the Dodgers’ rotation is thinner than it’s been in years. Losing Kershaw would be a bigger blow than it’s being perceived right now, in part because Kershaw’s “legacy value” took a big hit by not being anywhere near the mound during the playoffs, and even in the regular season, he fell from the divine heights of prior seasons. But let’s not diminish the man: He posted 2.1 rWAR/3.4 fWAR and finished 11th overall by FIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings. In fact, by FIP alone, the Dodgers would be losing the 10th (Scherzer) and 11th (Kershaw) starters in the Majors. Sure, they got just 33 starts from the pair, so we can almost count them as a single starter, but they make a darn good one that the Dodgers will miss.

Also on the positive side of the ledger, the Dodgers still have Walker Buehler and Julio Urias as a tremendous, in-their-prime duo. In fact, those two finished just behind Scherzer/Kershaw as 14th and 15th in the Majors by FIP. But the Dodgers had a front-row seat to the Padres’ horror-show second half.  Two starters – even stars – is not enough to helm a postseason rotation.

If Kershaw does ultimately re-sign, I’ll give a ‘hear-hear’ – but if he doesn’t, they did, at least, strike quickly to add former Angels’ southpaw Andrew Heaney to the starting mix. Heaney struggled mightily after a deadline trade to the Yankees, but the Dodgers believe in his upside. Said Friedman, “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.” Despite his long-time reputation as a potential quality starter, Heaney’s 1.9 rWAR back in 2015 marked a career-high. Entering his age-31 season, it’s not impossible to imagine a re-brand in the mold of Wade Miley or, sure, dream big, Charlie Morton, but that’s a pipe dream – until it’s not.

Dustin May has a bright future, but he’s not due to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half of the season at the earliest. Tony Gonsolin slots in as the number four behind Heaney right now, but the 27-year-old hasn’t been trusted to hold down a regular rotation spot before, and solid as he’s been, the Dodgers clearly like him in a swing role. Fangraphs lists David Price as the fifth starter right now, and though the 36-year-old may very well end up in that role, it would be surprising if both Price and Gonsolin are among their starting five on opening day.

Rotation depth is more important now than ever, and though the Dodgers seem to have lost ground in the star power department, they did make a couple of low-key pickups during the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft that deepens their pool of potential arms. Carson Fulmer was once the eighth overall pick of the draft, and though it’s been a while since his mound work merited national attention, he is definitely worth a minor league contract. The same can be said for Jon Duplantier, who even more recently graced top prospect lists while coming up through the Diamondbacks’ system. Both are entering their age-28 season, an age at which Jake Arrieta still had a 5.23 career ERA. Neither Fulmer nor Duplantier has been even that good, but there’s no risk here for the Dodgers, and they need the depth.

They expressed some interest in the Reds’ available starters, but nothing came together before the lockout. That could still happen, or they could explore a deal for one or more of Oakland’s arms: Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, et al. Frankly, it was surprising that they didn’t make more of a push to bring back Scherzer. Still, even without a major addition, it’s worth remembering that the goal isn’t to build out a starting five – the goal is to build an organization capable of competing for 162 games.

It’s worth wondering if Scherzer’s contract just became too rich for Friedman’s tastes. On the one hand, that’s absurd, nothing and nobody should be too rich for the Dodgers. But practically speaking, the Dodgers ran out the highest payroll in baseball in 2021, and they might want to see how the now collective bargaining agreement changes luxury tax rules before barreling ahead into repeater tax territory. Fangraphs has their current 2022 payroll at ~$232MM, so their bed may already be made, but it’s only sensible to want the exact terms of the arrangement.  Aside from the aforementioned Kershaw, most of the free agent starting pitching talent signed prior to the lockout.  The Dodgers could still consider Carlos Rodon, whose health history is likely to lead to the type of shorter-term requirement the Dodgers prefer.  Indeed, when the MLBTR staff was debating Rodon’s potential contract, they kicked around some kind of Bauer-lite high-dollar three-year arrangement.

Speaking of Bauer, last we saw of the divisive right-hander, he had been on extended administrative leave due to unresolved sexual assault allegations. As of now, it’s entirely unclear if he will be available to pitch in 2022 (or even if the Dodgers would welcome him back). MLB’s recent ruling on Marcell Ozuna‘s violation of the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy suggests the league office is not yet ready to levy significant penalties for players whose criminal court cases are dropped.

Still, Bauer’s case is more public than perhaps any prior violation, and one would expect greater backlash upon his return to the field. So long as the Dodgers remain responsible for paying the $70MM+ still owed the right-hander, they would be hard-pressed not to allow him to suit up, especially given their need on the hill. If, however, they are somehow let out of their contractual obligation to Bauer, they could allocate that money elsewhere – though any replacement would most likely be a downgrade from Bauer’s significant on-field potential. Needless to say, the cloud of these proceedings will hang over the Dodgers for some time.

In the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel have been replaced by Daniel Hudson, while long-time closer Kenley Jansen remains a free agent. Blake Treinen was amazing last season (1.99 ERA/2.88 FIP across 72 1/3 innings), Hudson has plenty of high-leverage experience, and it’s easy to dream on Brusdar Graterol‘s potential, but the relief corps is very much a work-in-progress.  After 12 years at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, the club may finally allow Jansen to walk away.

Whether they add starters, relievers, or the modern type of arm that can move between roles, they’re going to need more pitchers. They had 11 pitchers post more than half a win by fWAR in 2021, six of whom are either already gone or current free agents (Kershaw, Scherzer, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, Jansen) and a seventh is Bauer. No need to panic: that’s a backward-looking approach, they can afford to print new jerseys, and the offseason isn’t over. But there’s work to be done.

In terms of the free agents available, Kershaw may be the best starter available, with Rodon and his checkered past also in the running. Other lesser names are available as well, perhaps led by Yusei Kikuchi. Many of the available free agent starters aren’t likely to ignite the fanbase, but the Dodgers have spun straw into gold before.

The relief market has a bit more juice with Jansen only one name among many that can be first division arms: Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, Kelly, Nelson, and Adam Ottavino, to name a few. There’s still a chess move or two that the Dodgers could make without horribly overburdening their payroll.

Internally, Mitch White could find himself in a bigger role, Tommy Kahnle is coming back from Tommy John, and prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove aren’t far from seeing daylight (Grove is on the 40-man roster). There is some growth potential, but if nothing else, Buehler and Urias need to take over as the faces of Dodger pitching. Then again, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that they already are.

All told, while they await resolution on the Bauer and CBA fronts, the Dodgers had to charge ahead, thought they did so with a relatively quiet first half of the offseason. They made some minor additions, adding outfielder Jason Martin and right-hander Beau Burrows on minor league deals to build out their depth. But they also dealt away outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks for cash considerations. Both had been designated for assignment as a means of being removed from the 40-man roster. Sheldon Neuse seemed like a classic Dodger project when he was acquired from the A’s, but he’s now in DFA purgatory until the lockout ends.

The Dodgers will be one of the more interesting teams to watch coming out of the lockout. Given their status as the top paying luxury tax team, the particulars of the new CBA could affect them more than any other club. Add in Bauer’s situation and Kershaw’s free agency, and the Dodgers are facing more uncertainty than they’ve seen in years. That said, their financial might is as great as ever, and even depleted by their free agent losses, they have one of the most talented rosters in the game. They also play in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport. With the Giants and Padres as formidable as ever, there’s no room to take a step back. After all, even with Betts, Buehler, Urias, the Turners, Taylor, Muncy, Bellinger, Will Smith, and more, the fact is, the Dodgers aren’t the champs anymore.

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