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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres finally put themselves back on the map in 2020. Emboldened by last year’s success, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller spent the winter attempting to assemble a championship-caliber roster. Preller had plenty of money to play with, evidenced by the Padres’ franchise-record $174MM Opening Day payroll.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

At 37-23, the Padres finished with the majors’ third-best record last season, but that still left them six games behind the Dodgers – their NL West rival and the reigning World Series champions. With that in mind, Preller and his front office cohorts used the past few months seemingly leaving no stone unturned in an effort to overthrow the Dodgers, who have ruled the division for eight consecutive seasons. The Padres showed interest in a variety of household names both in free agency and trades, and they were successful in reeling in a few big fish.

The always aggressive Preller’s main headline-grabbing acquisitions addressed the Padres’ rotation, which was terrific last year. However, the Padres saw a couple of their top starters – Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger – go down with injuries late in the season, while Garrett Richards then exited in free agency. Lamet hasn’t yet returned from the elbow issues that ended his season in September, though he doesn’t seem far away from his 2021 debut. On the other hand, the Padres learned in November that Clevinger, who was a blockbuster in-season pickup, required Tommy John surgery. He’s not going to pitch at all in the current campaign, but that didn’t stop the Padres from signing Clevinger to a two-year, back-loaded deal with the hope that he’ll factor in come 2022.

In the wake of the Clevinger news, the Padres went to work in a major way. They showed interest ranging from mild to serious in free agents such as Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Tomoyuki Sugano, Adam Wainwright, Kohei Arihara and Martin Perez. Trade targets included Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn, though the Padres instead landed three other high-profile starters via that route.

The first domino to fall for San Diego was the acquisition of former AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell from the Rays. Snell has three years and $39MM of control left, so as you’d expect, the Rays didn’t give him away for cheap. Rather, the package headed to Tampa Bay centered on 21-year-old righty Luis Patino, who ranks among the premier prospects in the sport. The Padres also had to surrender two other quality prospects – righty Cole Wilcox and catcher/first baseman Blake Hunt – as well as a once-heralded farmhand in Francisco Mejia. Acquired from the Indians in the teams’ Brad Hand trade in 2018, Mejia was never able to establish himself with the Padres at catcher, nor did his offense come close to matching the hype.

The Snell swap wasn’t the only late-December present for the Padres or their fans. Shortly after swinging the trade with Tampa Bay, Preller & Co. pried 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from the Cubs. It didn’t cost the Padres nearly as much this time, in part because they ate all but $3MM on the $62MM Darvish is owed over the next three years. The Padres did have to give up one of their best 2020 starters, Zach Davies, but he’ll be a free agent next offseason. Plus, it’s hard not to view Darvish as a clear upgrade over Davies. Along with Davies, San Diego parted with four prospects – shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena – but all of those players are at least a few years from the majors. That’s if they make it at all.

The addition of Caratini came as welcome news for Darvish, as the former is his personal catcher. Caratini played second fiddle to Willson Contreras in Chicago, but he has typically blended passable offense for his position with well-graded defense. Once Austin Nola returns from a fractured finger, he and Caratini should give the Padres a solid one-two behind the plate with Luis Campusano also in the mix.

No one would have blamed the Padres had they stopped at Snell and Darvish, but they decided there was more to accomplish. Just a few weeks after scooping up those two, the Padres executed yet another eyebrow-raising trade, this time hauling in righty Joe Musgrove from the Pirates. While Musgrove doesn’t carry a Snell- or Darvish-like track record, he did give the Pirates useful mid-rotation production for multiple seasons. Now back in his native San Diego, Musgrove has thrived, having already thrown the first no-hitter in franchise history. He has also yielded just one earned run in his first 19 innings in a Padres uniform.

To pick up Musgrove’s two affordable remaining years of team control, the Padres again sent away a bunch of non-elite prospects (Hudson Head, Drake Fellows, David Bednar and Omar Cruz). The only major leaguer they said goodbye to was Joey Lucchesi, whom the Mets acquired in the three-team deal. Like going from Davies to Darvish, Musgrove gives the Padres an obvious improvement over Lucchesi.

All said, the Padres acquired two front-line starters and another who may be turning into one while moving only a single star prospect (Patino). So, even in spite of dumping double-digit prospects in these deals, the Padres’ farm system is still pretty loaded. In fact, according to MLB.com, it’s the game’s sixth-best system – one that still boasts four top-100 players in lefty MacKenzie Gore (No. 6), shortstop CJ Abrams (No. 8), Campusano (No. 45) and outfielder Robert Hassell III (No. 62).

Along with finding outside starting pitching, taking care of key inside business was among the primary items on the Padres’ offseason checklist. They and the face of their franchise, 22-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., made it clear entering the winter that they wanted to hammer out a contract extension. Tatis wasn’t on track to reach arbitration until after 2022 or become a free agent until the end of the 2024 season, but the Padres weren’t going take a chance on losing him in his mid-20s. Instead, in late February, they succeeded in locking up Tatis into his mid-30s.

The agreement with Tatis is historic – a 14-year, $340MM pact that shattered Mike Trout’s previous record guarantee of $144MM for a pre-arb player. It’s also the second $300MM-plus contract the Padres have doled out over the past couple years, as they previously signed third baseman Manny Machado to a decade-long deal in free agency. The club now has the left side of its infield under wraps with two superstar-caliber players for the foreseeable future.

The rotation improvements and the Tatis extension represented the offseason heavy lifting for the Padres, but they were active in other areas. Most notably, they signed former Korea Baseball Organization standout Ha-Seong Kim to a four-year, $28MM guarantee with a $5.5MM posting fee paid to the Kiwoom Heroes. Kim isn’t an upgrade over Tatis, Machado or second baseman Jake Cronenworth, but the team felt it was a worthwhile risk to spend on a versatile 25-year-old whom many regard as a top-1o0 prospect.

The Kim signing wasn’t the last of the Padres’ depth-bolstering moves in free agency. A few weeks after they won the Kim sweepstakes, the Padres re-upped Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $21MM guarantee. The contract includes a pair of opt-outs, so if Profar plays well enough this year or next, he could elect to return to free agency. For at least another year, though, he’ll continue to give the Padres someone who can play multiple positions and offer league-average or slightly better offense at a reasonable annual cost. Profar’s fourth on the Padres in plate appearances this year, and he has already lined up at four spots (first, second and both corner outfield positions).

The bullpen was also a matter of some offseason importance for the Padres, who faced the losses of relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates in free agency. San Diego showed interest in bringing both back, but they departed for higher paydays elsewhere. The Padres seem to have dodged bullets in both cases, as Rosenthal underwent thoracic outlet surgery earlier this month and Yates had a Tommy John procedure in March.

Rosenthal and Yates signed for a combined $16.5MM in guarantees, but the Padres spent far less on their relief corps, inking Mark Melancon and Keone Kela for a total of $4.2MM. It’s early, but the always steady Melancon has been a bargain for the Padres so far. He’s 5-for-5 in save opportunities and hasn’t allowed a walk or a run in six innings of one-hit ball. Likewise, Kela has been flawless in the runs allowed department, having surrendered none in 5 2/3 frames. The hard-throwing Kela had an impressive three-year stretch of run prevention and strikeouts with the Rangers and Pirates from 2017-19, but a positive COVID-19 test and forearm troubles held him to two innings last season. If healthy, though, he also has a chance to end up as a steal for San Diego. So far, so good.

Although it’s only mid-April, the Padres look as if they’re going to be a force again this year, thanks in no small part to Preller’s offseason moves. So impressed with his work, Padres ownership decided in February to upgrade Preller’s title from general manager to president of baseball ops and extend him through 2026. It appears the Padres are in capable hands with Preller at the helm, but how would you grade their offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Grade the Padres' offseason
A 83.55% (2,088 votes)
B 11.60% (290 votes)
F 2.48% (62 votes)
C 1.80% (45 votes)
D 0.56% (14 votes)
Total Votes: 2,499

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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Tampa Bay remodeled its pitching staff as the team prepares to defend its American League pennant.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Rays began their offseason by, as usual, trimming payroll.  Declining club options on Charlie Morton and Mike Zunino removed $19.5MM in potential expenditures off the team’s books, though in Zunino’s case, the two sides only temporarily parted ways.  Zunino re-signed with the team for $3MM in guaranteed money, plus another $3MM more in total earnings if the Rays choose to exercise another club option on the catcher for 2022.

In short, the Zunino situation saved the team $1.5MM, and they ended up retaining a player they clearly value as a defender.  Zunino has yet to show much of anything at the plate as he enters his third season in Tampa, though as we’ll explore later, Zunino wasn’t the only move the Rays made to address their seemingly neverending quest for catching help.

Declining Morton’s option was a bigger call for the Rays, given how the veteran performed over his two seasons with the club.  Yet, as always, general manager Erik Neander and his front office looked to maximize the Rays’ value on what (little) they had available to spend.  Exercising Morton’s club option would have cost the Rays $15MM, whereas signing three starters and three relievers (Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Collin McHugh, Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake) ended up costing the team a combined $15.725MM.  Heading into a season where pitching depth may be more important than ever, the Rays managed to get six free agent arms for the price of one pitcher entering his age-37 season.

This is standard operating practice for the Rays, even when the team is reloading for what they hope will be a return trip to the World Series.  Not many pennant winners head into the next season having parted ways with two top-of-the-rotation starters, yet that’s exactly what Tampa Bay did in saying goodbye to Morton and in trading Blake Snell to the Padres.

The Snell trade was one of the offseason’s biggest moves for any team, and there was obviously a financial component.  Snell is owed $39MM over the 2021-23 seasons, so the Rays again cleared some money.  For moving a former Cy Young Award winner with three years of control, the Rays picked up a four-player package that they believe can help them in the coming years and as early as the 2021 season.

Luis Patino, one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, is expected to be called up at some point during the year to add yet another arm to the Rays’ rotation mix.  Francisco Mejia is serving as Zunino’s backup and, should Mejia start to show any of his past top-prospect potential, could end up supplanting Zunino in 2021 and onward as the Rays’ regular catcher.  Right-hander Cole Wilcox and catcher Blake Hunt are longer-term pieces that could prove useful down the road and give the Rays a pair of recent early draftees with high ceilings to bolster a perennially strong farm.

Time will tell if the Rays made the correct move in trading Snell when they did, and it could be that the deal only occurred because San Diego was the only team willing (or able, given the Padres’ deep farm system) to meet Tampa Bay’s big asking price.  It probably also didn’t hurt that the Rays already had a lot of familiarity with the Padres’ prospects given how the two teams have been frequent trade partners in recent years.

With Morton and Snell gone, Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough are the provisional top two starters in the Tampa rotation, with Hill, Archer, and Wacha all signed to one-year contracts to round out the starting five.  That initial rotation has already hit a snag since Archer is on the injured list with right lateral forearm tightness, though Archer isn’t expected to miss much time.

Josh Fleming has stepped into the rotation in Archer’s place, providing the first glimpse of the second layer of the Rays’ pitching depth.  Fleming, swingman McHugh, Patino, Trevor Richards, Shane McClanahan, and Brent Honeywell Jr. could all end up getting regular starts as the season progresses, or at least handle bulk-pitcher duties behind an opener.

Pitching was very much at the forefront of the Rays’ winter plans, as the team reportedly had interest in such names as Martin Perez, Mike Foltynewicz, Julio Teheran, and Anibal Sanchez.  Tampa Bay also made strong bids to sign Corey Kluber and acquire Jameson Taillon from the Pirates, though both Kluber and Taillon ended up on the division-rival Yankees.

While there was risk involved in all of those pitchers on the Rays’ target list, they also ended up rolling the dice on the pitchers they did acquire.  Archer missed all of 2020 due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and hasn’t pitched well essentially since the moment Tampa dealt the right-hander to Pittsburgh at the July 2018 trade deadline.  As fun as it would be (well, for everyone besides Pirates fans) to see Archer reignite his career with his former team, it is still very unclear if the righty can be a notable contributor.

The same can be said of Wacha, as injuries and an increasingly large home run rate have drastically worsened the right-hander’s results in the years since his All-Star peak with the Cardinals.  Thanks to his increased velocity and strong swinging-strike numbers, however, Wacha did draw some interest from around the league despite some pretty miserable bottom-line numbers (6.62 ERA) over 34 innings with the Mets in 2020.

Hill is a different story, as the southpaw has continued to pitch effectively even as he enters his age-41 season.  Since the start of the 2017 campaign, Hill and Morton have very similar numbers — except Hill has only tossed 375 2/3 innings to Morton’s 563 1/3 innings.  Since Hill has proven he can deliver front-of-the-rotation production when healthy, the Rays will be particularly careful with his usage to keep him fresh for what they hope will be some important innings come October.

The bullpen also saw quite a bit of turnover, as McHugh and minor league signing Hunter Strickland were added in free agency, and the duo of Chris Mazza and Jeffrey Springs were acquired in an inter-division trade with the Red Sox.  Drake, Roe, and Andrew Kittredge were re-signed to new contracts, while Jose Alvarado, Aaron Loup, Aaron Slegers, and John Curtiss were all shuffled out of the relief corps.

Bullpen reorganization is a Rays staple, and the team will need as much depth as it can find from the farm system due to a number of early injuries.  Roe (shoulder strain) and Nick Anderson (partial elbow ligament tear) will be out until at least July, while Drake was re-signed with the knowledge that he’d also be out until around midseason due to a forearm problem.  Right-hander Pete Fairbanks is also sidelined until May due to a rotator cuff strain.

Given all these injuries, it isn’t surprising that the Rays are at or near the bottom of several team bullpen categories, but this is a problem that needs to be quickly solved considering how quality relief pitching has been a cornerstone of the Rays’ success.  If the bullpen is struggling, it puts even more pressure on the starters to not just post quality innings, but to eat innings altogether, which is doesn’t fit the Rays’ usual pitching strategy.

With so much offseason focus on the rotation and bullpen, Tampa Bay did very little with its group of position players.  Besides re-signing Zunino and adding Mejia, the Rays are more or less running it back with the 2020 group intact.  This isn’t to say that the team didn’t at least check into some notable acquisitions, as the Rays were linked to Kolten Wong, Yoenis Cespedes, and even Marcell Ozuna at different points in the offseason (though according to reports, Ozuna would have only been a realistic addition if he had been willing to accept a one-year contract).

Hunter Renfroe was let go in free agency, and the only other notable subtraction from the position player mix was Nate Lowe, who was traded to the Rangers as part of a six-player deal.  Since the Rays also picked up a couple of other first base prospects in Evan Edwards and Dillon Paulson over the winter, Tampa Bay might have felt it had the depth to part with Lowe, especially since the first base picture on the big league roster was also pretty crowded.

Two weeks into the season, however, Lowe is off to a pretty solid start — .245/.327/.510 with four home runs in 55 plate appearances.  Not earth-shattering numbers, though they do stand out considering that Ji-Man Choi is injured and Yoshi Tsutsugo and Mike Brosseau are both in season-opening slumps.  Lowe was even an above-average hitter (106 wRC+, 109 OPS+) over 245 PA with Tampa in 2019-20, but the Rays never seemed particularly enamored with the idea of giving him an extended look at first base.

While the Rays haven’t gotten off to a good start as a whole in 2021, it’s obviously way too early to write off a team that has made a habit of overachieving.  The Rays’ habit of finding hidden gems in trades or low-level waiver pickups also makes it somewhat difficult to evaluate their moves in the moment.  Who would’ve thought that postseason hero Randy Arozarena would end up as the headline acquisition of the 2019-20 offseason, for instance?  More pivots and roster alterations are certainly likely to occur over the course of the season, as Tampa Bay is perpetually looking to both build and rebuild even while vying for a playoff berth.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Rays' offseason
C 39.08% (784 votes)
B 30.91% (620 votes)
D 16.95% (340 votes)
A 6.78% (136 votes)
F 6.28% (126 votes)
Total Votes: 2,006

2020 Rule 5 Draft Update

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An abnormal number of picks from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft survived Spring Training and made the Opening Day rosters with their new clubs. The Orioles and Marlins both broke camp with a pair of Rule 5 picks on the active roster, while the Pirates opened the season with one Rule 5 pick on the roster and one on the injured list. Most clubs that are carrying a Rule 5 pick, unsurprisingly, have little in the way of postseason aspirations. There are a few October hopefuls among those still clinging to Rule 5 picks, however, and it’ll take some uncharacteristically strong Rule 5 showings for those players to survive the season.

We’ll take a look at how the surviving Rule 5 draftees are faring periodically throughout the year. Here’s the first glance…

Currently in the Majors

  • Brett de Geus, RHP, Rangers (via Dodgers): Injuries throughout the Rangers’ bullpen might have helped the 23-year-old de Geus crack the Opening Day roster in Texas. He’s out to a shaky start, having walked three batters and hit another three against just two strikeouts through his first 5 2/3 innings. On the plus side, 13 of the 15 balls put into play against him have been grounders.
  • Akil Baddoo, OF, Tigers (via Twins): Baddoo is one of the best stories (maybe the best) of the young 2021 season. The 22-year-old homered on his first swing in the big leagues as his family rejoiced in the stands, and in less than two weeks’ time he’s added a grand slam, a walk-off single (against his former organization) a 450-foot dinger off Zack Greinke and a fourth homer. Baddoo has a ludicrous 1.342 OPS through his first 29 plate appearances in the Majors, and while he obviously won’t sustain that, he’s forcing a legitimate audition in the Detroit outfield. Baddoo missed nearly all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and didn’t play in 2020. Despite that layoff and the fact that he’d never played above A-ball, the Tigers called his name in December. It may have seemed like a stretch at the time, but it doesn’t look that way now.
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP, Red Sox (via Yankees): The Sox would surely love for Whitlock to stick, having plucked him from their archrivals in New York. So far, so good. Better than good, in fact. Through 6 1/3 scoreless innings, Whitlock has yielded three hits and punched out nine batters without issuing a walk. He’s sitting 95.6 mph with his heater and has posted a hefty 16.9 percent swinging-strike rate. Whitlock also had Tommy John surgery in 2019, so even though he’s previously been a starter, it makes sense to monitor his workload ease him into the mix as the Sox hope to get through the year with him in the ’pen.
  • Tyler Wells, RHP, Orioles (via Twins): Wells has allowed a pair of homers and surrendered three total runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 5 2/3 frames. The O’s aren’t trying to win in 2021, but their bullpen also has four arms that can’t be optioned (Cesar Valdez, Shawn Armstrong, Adam Plutko, Wade LeBlanc). Keeping both Wells and Mac Sceroler (currently on the IL) brings them  to six and will hamper their flexibility.
  • Zach Pop and Paul Campbell, RHPs, Marlins (via Orioles and Rays): Pop was technically the D-backs’ pick in the Rule 5, but Arizona immediately flipped him to the Marlins for a PTBNL. The 24-year-old didn’t allow an earned run in five spring frames but as I was finishing this post, he served up a three-run homer, bringing his season line to seven runs on three hits, three walks and two hit batters in 3 1/3 innings. Campbell has struggled to a similar extent. He’s surrendered five runs (three earned) and given up four hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings. With the Marlins out of tank mode, it’ll be tough to carry both all year.
  • Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Rockies (via Dodgers): Sheffield was the No. 36 overall pick in the 2016 Draft, but control issues prevented him from being protected on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gives Sheffield three plus pitches in his scouting report (fastball, curveball, changeup) but also pegs his command at a 30 on the 20-80 scale. Sheffield has walked or plunked 15 percent of the hitters he faced in the minors. He’s yet to walk anyone 13 batters he’s faced with the Rockies, but he did hit one and has also tossed a pair of wild pitches. That said, he’s also sitting 95.5 mph with his heater and is unscored upon in 3 2/3 frames.
  • Luis Oviedo, RHP, Pirates (via Indians): Oviedo was the Mets’ pick at No. 10, but they had a deal worked out to flip him to the Pirates in exchange for cash. Oviedo has been hammered for six runs on six hits (two homers) and two walks with five strikeouts through 4 2/3 innings so far. Even pitching for a tanking club, Oviedo will need to show some improvement in order to stick on the roster all season.
  • Will Vest, RHP, Mariners (via Tigers): The Mariners kept last year’s Rule 5 pick Yohan Ramirez for the whole season, but it’ll be tougher to do with a full schedule in 2021. The Mariners’ young core is also beginning to rise to the big leagues, and Vest will need to fend off some intriguing young arms. He’s done a decent job so far, allowing a pair of runs (one unearned) on five hits and four walks with five strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings.
  • Trevor Stephan, RHP, Indians (via Yankees): Stephan whiffed 16 of 44 hitters this spring to earn a spot on the Indians’ Opening Day roster, but he’s allowed four runs in his first four MLB frames. The 25-year-old has surrendered five hits (including a homer), walked a pair and hit a batter so far while facing a total of 21 hitters.
  • Ka’ai Tom, OF, Athletics (via Indians): Tom, 26, raked at a .310/.412/.552 pace with a homer, two doubles and a triple in 34 spring plate appearances. After that strong audition, however, he’s just 1-for-16 with six strikeouts through his first 16 trips to the plate with the A’s.

On the Major League injured list

  • Jose Soriano, RHP, Pirates (via Angels): It wasn’t a surprise to see Soriano open the year on the injured list. He’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in Feb. 2020 and didn’t pitch in a game with the Pirates this spring. He’ll be sidelined for at least the first two months, as the Bucs put him on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot when they signed Tyler Anderson. Soriano hasn’t pitched above A-ball, but the Pirates aren’t exactly a win-now club, so they can afford to stash him as a seldom-used bullpen piece in order to secure his rights beyond the 2021 season.
  • Mac Sceroler, RHP, Orioles (via Reds): Sceroler fanned six hitters in 3 2/3 innings early in the season but also yielded three runs on five hits (two homers), three walks and a hit batter. The Orioles recently placed him on the 10-day injured list due to tendinitis in his right shoulder, although it’s not expected to be too lengthy an absence.
  • Dedniel Nunez, RHP, Giants (via Mets): Nunez was hit hard in the Cactus League, surrendering four runs in 3 1/3 innings. He’ll now miss the entire 2021 season after sustaining a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery this spring. Nunez will spend the season on San Francisco’s 60-day injured list and receive a year of MLB service, but he’ll still be subject to Rule 5 restrictions in 2022 once he’s healthy. He’ll need to spend at least 90 days on the MLB roster before he can be sent to the minors; if he doesn’t last that long, he’ll have to pass through waivers and, if he clears, be offered back to the Mets.

Returned to their original club

  • Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP, Angels (via Astros): The Angels didn’t take much of a look at Rivera, returning him to Houston on March 24 after just one inning of official work in Cactus League play.
  • Kyle Holder, SS, Reds (via Yankees): The Reds weren’t sure who their shortstop was going to be heading into Spring Training, but they ultimately settled on moving Eugenio Suarez back to that spot, sliding Mike Moustakas back to third base and giving prospect Jonathan India the nod at second base. A strong spring from Holder might have at least given him a bench spot behind that trio, but he hit just .219/.359/.250 in 39 plate appearances. The Reds returned him to the Yankees on March 30.
  • Gray Fenter, RHP, Cubs (via Orioles): The Cubs returned Fenter to the Orioles on March 12 after just one spring appearance. He hasn’t pitched above A-ball yet.
  • Dany Jimenez, RHP, Athletics (via Blue Jays): The 27-year-old Jimenez was a Rule 5 pick in consecutive offseasons — once by each Bay Area club. The A’s returned him to the Jays on March 15, however, after he yielded four runs (two earned) in three innings of work this spring.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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After winning their third straight NL East title and falling one victory shy of a World Series berth in 2020, the Braves made a few notable moves in free agency.

Major League Signings

  • Marcell Ozuna, OF: Four years, $65MM (includes $16MM option or $1MM buyout for 2025)
  • Charlie Morton, RHP: One year, $15MM
  • Drew Smyly, LHP: One year, $11MM
  • Josh Tomlin, RHP: One year, $1.25MMM
  • Jake Lamb, 3B: One year, $1MM (non-guaranteed MLB deal; Lamb was later released)
  • Total spend: $92.25MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

One of the main questions the Braves faced entering the offseason was whether they would re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna – who had a monster year in 2020 – or replace him with another big bat via free agency or the trade market. Liberty Media, the publicly traded company that owns the Braves, experienced a significant drop in revenue during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The Braves could have used that as an excuse (albeit not a very sympathetic one for fans) to avoid going big-game hunting in the winter. Nevertheless, rumors connected the Braves to a slew of noteworthy offensive pieces, including J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu and Justin Turner on the open market and Nolan Arenado in a potential trade.

Ultimately, even though it hasn’t been general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ M.O. to hand out long-term paydays in free agency, Ozuna stuck around on a four-year, $65MM guarantee. Ozuna wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, so he would have walked for no compensation had the Braves let him go. And though Ozuna spent most of last season at designated hitter, the Braves knew they’d have to send him back to left field on a full-time basis this year had the majors done away with the universal DH. As it turned out, the league did just that, though the DH could return to the NL in 2022 if MLB and the union sign off on it in collective bargaining agreement negotiations next winter.

Ozuna was the lone major addition the Braves made on offense, but they didn’t need much with a Ronald Acuna Jr.-, Freddie Freeman– and Ozuna-led lineup that finished second in the NL in runs and third in wRC+ last year. That said, third base was a liability for the Braves, which explains why they at least had some interest in LeMahieu, Turner and Arenado. Having struck out with that group, the Braves took an inexpensive shot at Jake Lamb – a former All-Star who enjoyed a strong stretch run – only to release him before the season.

Failure to bring in a clear solution left the Braves with last year’s starter, Austin Riley, as their No. 1 option at the hot corner. Riley was a high-end prospect in his minor league days, and he’s still just 24 years old, but the results simply haven’t been there since he debuted in 2019. He’s off to another poor start this season, and if he doesn’t make significant improvements, it would behoove the Braves to pursue an in-season upgrade; that is, if they’re in contention.

While the Braves’ offense was marvelous last season, the same wasn’t true of their rotation. Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels were supposed to play integral roles, but those plans went up in smoke because of injuries. Soroka made just three starts before suffering a torn right Achilles tendon, while Hamels totaled only one appearance because of shoulder troubles. Fortunately for Atlanta, Max Fried and Ian Anderson more than pulled their weight across a combined 17 starts. Unfortunately, no one else provided much.

Fried and Anderson exited last season as shoo-ins to start for the Braves at the outset this year, while the hope was that Soroka would be back for the opener or at least shortly after that. Still, despite those three and the presences of other young starters such as Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright, the Braves needed to add to their rotation in the offseason. There were rumored possibilities in Blake Snell and Adam Wainwright, but the Braves ended up signing righty Charlie Morton and lefty Drew Smyly instead. Anthopoulos brought in the pair on one-year deals, which has been fairly typical of how he has handled free agency.

Even though they didn’t require long-term commitments, there was certainly some risk in inking Morton ($15MM) and Smyly ($11MM). Morton, who began his career with the Braves in 2008, finally broke out in 2017 with Houston and was superb with the Astros and then the Rays through 2019. His numbers took some steps backward in Tampa Bay last year, though, and he’s now in his age-37 season. Morton’s 4.76 ERA early this season just about matches the 4.74 mark he recorded a year ago, but to be fair, his strong peripherals suggest a turnaround is coming in the run prevention department.

Although Smyly, 31, is younger and cheaper than Morton, he was an even riskier pick. After a promising start to his career, Smyly missed all of 2017 and ’18 because of Tommy John surgery, and he returned in 2019 to post unsightly numbers. Smyly, however, enjoyed a highly encouraging rebound in seven appearances (five starts) with the Giants last season. That convinced Anthopoulos to take a somewhat costly chance on Smyly, and though he has allowed nine earned runs in just 11 innings as a Brave, he has struck out 11 while issuing just one walk.

Of course, the fact that Morton and Smyly haven’t kept runs off the board at a solid clip isn’t the only problem the Braves’ rotation has faced. Like last year, they’re again battling multiple important injuries. As mentioned before, Soroka looked on track to return by early April. However, the Braves had to shut him down April 7 because of a new issue – shoulder inflammation – and there isn’t a timeline for his return at the moment. Meanwhile, Fried – a Cy Young contender in 2020 – got off to a brutal start this year in allowing 14 earned runs on 23 hits and five walks in 11 innings before landing on the IL this week with a strained hamstring. The hope is that he won’t be out for too long, but it’s certainly a discouraging development for the Braves that they’re facing attrition in their rotation for the second consecutive season.

The Braves’ bullpen helped pick up the slack last year, when Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Darren O’Day each played key roles. All three are now gone, though Greene is oddly still available in free agency. Melancon took a more-than-reasonable $3MM guarantee with the Padres and has been his usual effective self this year. It was surprising to see the Braves decline an affordable $3.5MM option for O’Day in favor of a $500K buyout when the offseason began, and he’s off to a nice start as a Yankee this year.

The Braves didn’t do much to replace Melancon, Greene and O’Day. They did show interest in the No. 1 available reliever, Liam Hendriks, but he chose the White Sox’s four-year, $54MM offer. In the end, the Braves’ “big” bullpen move was to re-sign Josh Tomlin for $1.25MM, and they also took minor league flyers on some veteran relievers. One of those minors pickups, Nate Jones, is now in their bullpen. He hasn’t pitched all that well in the early going, though the bullpen as a whole actually has held up despite the lack of offseason upgrades. It’s currently top 10 in the majors in FIP, ERA and K-BB percentage.

Atlanta went into the offseason as a final four team looking to get over the hump and build a World Series-winning squad for the first time since 1996. The results haven’t been great thus far, as the Braves have lost eight of their first 13 games. Nevertheless, the talent is there for the Braves to at least push for another NL East title, if not more.

How would you grade the Braves’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Braves' offseason
B 41.92% (1,258 votes)
C 35.92% (1,078 votes)
D 10.40% (312 votes)
A 7.03% (211 votes)
F 4.73% (142 votes)
Total Votes: 3,001

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Francisco Lindor is now under contract with the Mets through 2031, and they’ll be cutting him checks for ten years beyond that due to deferred money.  Before accounting for Lindor’s $50MM in deferrals, his $341MM contract ranks third in MLB history behind Mookie Betts and Mike Trout.  But the net present value of Lindor’s deal is $332.39MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and it’s been previously reported that Betts’ $365MM extension actually had a present-day value of $306.66MM.  Fernando Tatis Jr.s’ 14-year, $340MM extension actually outranks Lindor and Betts in that sense, even though Lindor’s final million bucks was clearly tacked on so he and his agents at SportsMeter can at least nominally say he passed the Padres’ shortstop.

In our interpretation, Trout’s ten year, $360MM extension from March 2019 still reigns supreme among baseball contracts.  Though Trout tore up his existing contract and technically put pen to paper on a 12-year, $426.5MM deal with the Angels, he had two years and $66.5MM remaining on his old deal at the time.  The Angels committed $360MM in new money, which is the figure we think matters and allows for accurate comparison.  Baseball’s first true $400MM man has yet to be anointed, and that’s unlikely to happen as part of the 2021-22 free agent class.  MLB Trade Rumors maintains the definitive list of the largest MLB contracts here.

Though he had fallen short of our top ten back in March, Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is also off the board.  McCullers signed a five-year, $85MM extension to remain with the Astros, a reminder that Boras Corporation clients don’t always explore free agency.  McCullers had age on his side, as he doesn’t turn 28 until October.  The Astros were willing to grant McCullers a fifth year despite the fact that he has never pitched as many as 140 Major League innings in a single season, postseason included.  That’s partially due to his November 2018 Tommy John surgery, from which McCullers is fully recovered, as well as the shortened 60-game MLB season in 2020.

As a catcher slated to hit free agency in his age 32 season, the Royals’ Salvador Perez also failed to crack my top ten last month.  Perez did better than I thought, with his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council securing a four-year, $82MM extension.  Perez will be nearly four years younger than Yadier Molina was upon starting his three-year extension, so it makes sense that Perez would command a longer term.  Perez was also able to inch past Molina’s $20MM average annual value, becoming the third catcher to reach that mark along with standard-bearer J.T. Realmuto.

The 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings below represent my estimation of the players’ earning power, with the uncertainty of the expiring collective bargaining agreement set aside.  You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

1. Corey Seager.  Even with Lindor locked up, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class still includes seven starting-caliber players in Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, and Jose Iglesias.  Everything we said about Seager last time remains true: it’s exceedingly rare to find a shortstop who can hit this well.  It may be foolish to try to read tea leaves based on 49 plate appearances this year, but Seager’s walk rate is higher than ever so far and perhaps this will be the first time he reaches 70 free passes in a season.  Will the Dodgers allow their star shortstop to reach free agency?  Jon Heyman provided an update on March 30th, noting that the Dodgers “made an effort on Seager,” which obviously did not come to fruition.  As he approaches his 27th birthday this month, Seager has a clear benchmark to aim for in Lindor’s $341MM.

2. Trevor Bauer.  The most notable recent development involving Bauer was MLB’s collection of multiple baseballs he threw during his April 7th start at Oakland.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, “The balls had visible markings and were sticky, and were sent to the league offices for further inspection, the sources said.”  Rosenthal the baseballs were “brought to the umpires’ attention.”  This occurred only weeks after after MLB sent a memo to teams “alerting them of plans to crack down on pitchers’ use of foreign substances to manipulate pitch movement,” as Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post put it.  Per Janes’ article, the memo said collected baseballs would be tested at a third-party lab and players will be subject to discipline.

Bauer, who has been outspoken about pitchers’ widespread use of foreign substances on baseballs, had choice words in the wake of Rosenthal’s article.  It’s unclear whether Bauer was even being targeted in this instance, and it seems unlikely MLB could make a suspension stick (pun intended).

Most likely, this story is much ado about nothing, and will have no effect on Bauer’s earning power should he decide to opt out after 2021.  Given the structure of his contract, most feel that Bauer is more likely to opt out after 2022.  That’s why we didn’t include him in the snazzy image used in this post.

3. Carlos Correa.  The Astros attempted to extend Correa by his self-imposed Opening Day deadline, offering six years and $120MM or five years and $125MM.  The six-year offer is an exact match for Xander Bogaerts’ contract with the Red Sox, which Bogaerts signed coming off a 133 wRC+, 4.9 WAR season.  That contract,  covering ages 27-32, contains an opt-out after the third year and a very achievable seventh-year vesting option.  The extension still felt a bit light at the time for Bogaerts.  It still seems like a reasonable comparable for Correa at present, who hasn’t topped 110 games in the regular season since 2016 (though he was healthy in 2020).

If Correa is able to hit to his abilities (a 130 wRC+ or better) while playing 140+ games, he’ll prove himself right and probably at least double the Astros’ offer as a free agent.  Such a contract will probably come from another team, as Correa said of the Astros, “We didn’t get close at all.  There were not really any negotiations.”  He added, “Once I hit free agency, I’m going to look for a big, long contract. They made it very clear that they did not believe in that.”  Lindor’s contract is an obvious benchmark, with Correa noting in February, “I’m the one, I feel like with Lindor, that can do both — offensively and defensively — at a high level.  I always have the option of going to third base if it’s needed (for a team).”

Lindor’s ten-year, $341MM contract, which has a present-day value of about $332MM, pays him through age 37.  Manny Machado was paid through age 35 on a ten-year deal worth $300MM.  Correa may have a ten-year deal in that price range in his sights, or he could tack on additional years to squeeze out a few extra dollars as Bryce Harper did.

4. Trevor Story.  Is it too early to start the Trevor Story Trade Watch?  The Rockies have virtually no chance of making the playoffs.  Assuming the qualifying offer system and its exemption for traded players remains in place, Story would get a little boost over rival shortstops Seager and Correa, who do not figure to be traded this summer.  Plus, Story would have two months to start building a case that he’s a 120 wRC+ hitter outside of Coors Field.

5. Freddie Freeman.  Asked about progress on a contract extension with the Braves, Freeman told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman on March 24th, “We haven’t been approached yet.”  A week later on Opening Day, Freeman said, “There is nothing to report on.”  For as much of a foregone conclusion Freeman staying with the Braves seems to be, the club appears willing to let the reigning NL MVP reach the open market or at least get weeks away from it.  I could see a sixth year becoming a sticking point.  Paul Goldschmidt signed a five-year extension with the Cardinals in March 2019, but he was new to the team, wasn’t on the open market, and didn’t have an MVP on his résumé.  The Braves haven’t gone past four years in free agency since signing B.J. Upton in November 2012.

6. Kris Bryant.  Bryant has been overshadowed by the shortstops of the 2021-22 free agent class, even though the Cubs and baseball fans have been talking about his free agency since his delayed call-up in 2015.  Less than 7% of the Cubs’ season is in the books, but in 44 plate appearances in 2021 Bryant has begun to erase the ugly 147 PA from 2020.  In a full-length season, Bryant has never posted a wRC+ below 126.  If this is a four or five-win season in the making, Bryant could vault up this list in a hurry.  With the Cubs currently sporting a 12.4% chance at making the playoffs, he’s a prime July trade candidate.

7. Michael Conforto.  With a 132 wRC+ from 2017-20, Conforto’s track record speaks for itself.  That’s why his first seven games of 2021 should be of little concern and shouldn’t affect his free agent value.  Though SNY’s Andy Martino reported on March 19th that the Mets made an offer to Conforto, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo wrote, “Shortly before Lindor signed his deal last week [March 31st], a source said the Mets had yet to exchange numbers with Conforto’s agent.”

The day of Lindor’s agreement, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, “With the Mets focused on Lindor, extension talks with Michael Conforto fizzled, with the two sides in different realms regarding contract value, according to a source. Though Conforto in spring training backed away from the idea of Opening Day as a hard deadline to negotiate, the likelihood of him testing free agency is strong.”  With a typical year, Conforto will be the top free agent outfielder on the market.

8. Clayton Kershaw.  There’s nothing new to report on Kershaw, who recently turned 33 years old.  Speculation, including from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, seems to be in the three-year, $90MM range for Kershaw.  The Dodgers remain the favorite, with the Rangers lurking as the hometown pick.

9. Noah Syndergaard.  If McCullers is worth five years and $85MM, Syndergaard deserves a spot on this list.  The Mets’ flamethrowing righty, who turns 29 in August, is currently on the mend from March 2020 Tommy John surgery.  Syndergaard was said to have hit 96 miles per hour in a mid-March bullpen session and remains on track for a mid-June big league return.  That could give Syndergaard more than 20 starts to prove his health prior to free agency.

10.  Dylan Bundy.  The Angels’ Opening Day starter continues to see his stock rise after three strong starts to open the season.  His velocity is up a full two miles per hour from 2020.  In his 14 starts with the Angels dating back to last year, Bundy has a stellar 27.3 K% and 6.4 BB%.  Bundy won’t turn 29 until November, meaning he’s more than a year and a half younger than fellow free agents Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.  Drafted fourth overall by the Orioles out of high school in 2011, Bundy seems to be realizing his promise at the opportune time.

I missed this last time, but new Cardinal Nolan Arenado said in February that there is a “very, very high chance” that he will not be opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal, suggesting that staying put is “part of how we made the contract,” where the Redbirds added one year and $15MM to his deal.  So, there’s little reason to include him in these rankings.  Meanwhile, the Mariners’ James Paxton had his hopes for a comeback season dashed, as the need for Tommy John surgery arose 21 pitches into his season.

Aside from the aforementioned Gausman and Stroman, Max Scherzer, Lance Lynn, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Eduardo Rodriguez remain on the outskirts of the top ten.

MLBTR Polls: What Early Injury Worries You Most?

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While the sprint of 2020 gave urgency to the regular season, this year brought back the challenge of baseball’s marathon regular season.  The longer season brings greater health challenges. We’re particularly on edge for pitchers attempting to more than double their year-over-year workload. Hamstring injuries to position players have proven to be the more drastic bugaboo in the early going, however. Regardless, less than two weeks into 2021, the landscape has already begun to shift rosters and change odds.

The defending champs just placed Cody Bellinger on the 10-day injured list, while MVP runner-up Mookie Betts has been out of the lineup for a couple of games now. As much as a Dodgers lineup without Bellinger and Betts will boost some heart rates, neither injury appears to be serious – for now. The concern for all injuries, of course, goes beyond the time missed.

The Diamondbacks started the year with ace Zac Gallen on the shelf, and it took only one appearance for offseason addition and candidate-to-close Joakim Soria to join him on the shelf. Starters Nick Ahmed and Kole Calhoun have been out, though both recently returned to the lineup. Gallen should return this week too, but now Ketel Marte is out with a strained hamstring. Marte’s injury hurts all the more, not only because he’s become the face of the franchise in the post-Paul-Goldschmidt era, but because he was off to a rip-roaring start to the season with a 259 wRC+ through six games.

The Padres might have the scariest injury of all this season, as the centerpiece of their organization, Fernando Tatis Jr., dislocated his shoulder at the plate. Shoulder subluxation is the technical term, but a slight tear in his left labrum is the term to make you wince. Tatis is already working his way back, but this is going to be a pins-and-needles situation for the rest of the season, not only for the Padres, but for the league, as Tatis Jr. has rapidly become the face of the “let the kids play” generation. The Padres have also dealt with injuries to Trent Grisham, Dinelson Lamet, Austin Nola, Pierce Johnson, Michel Baez, and others. The Padres offseason spending spree all but guaranteed that they have the depth to contend, but the injuries are piling up.

Bad news has not been unique to the NL West, however. The Nationals started the season with a COVID-19 outbreak, which delayed their opening series and placed nine players on the injured list on Opening Day. Patrick Corbin made his return the other night, but he was rusty, and they still have yet to see Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Jon Lester, or Will Harris.

The Mets knew they’d be without Noah Syndergaard for the first half, but Carlos Carrasco has joined him on the injured list, as have key bullpen arms in Dellin Betances and Seth Lugo. J.D. Davis is out now as well, though Jonathan Villar should grant them cover at the hot corner until Davis returns.

In the American League, the White Sox head the list of forlorn head-shakers. Eloy Jimenez tore his pectoral late in spring, forcing the ChiSox to lean early on their questionable depth. First base prospect Andrew Vaughn and spring-training-castoff Billy Hamilton made for a patchwork timeshare, but Hamilton is out now as well. Tim Anderson, mercurial leadoff man and heartbeat of the roster, is also out with – you guessed it – a hamstring injury. How innocent it seemed when the team’s fourth outfielder Adam Engel went on the injured list at the end of Spring Training, but it’s only gotten worse since then.

Like the White Sox, the Blue Jays are a popular pick for the “it” team of 2021, but they’ve been without star pitching prospect Nate Pearson and prized offseason addition George Springer. Robbie Ray has been activated for his season debut, but closer Kirby Yates may never even throw a pitch for the Blue Jays. Yates needs Tommy John surgery, and he’ll miss the season.

The Astros got their injury heartbreak early enough to pivot before the season even started. They knew they’d be without Justin Verlander, but Framber Valdez’s season is now in doubt as well. Losing Valdez particularly smarts, given the breakout he enjoyed in 2020. They’re also without Austin Pruitt, Pedro Baez, Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, and Josh James. They were able to add Jake Odorizzi, but will he be enough?

The A’s got a real punch in the gut with A.J. Puk’s injury news. It might be funny if it weren’t so tragic: Puk shined in his season debut, only to find himself back on the injured list. The same can be said for Trevor Rosenthal, a savvy offseason addition to replace departed closer Liam Hendriks without the long-term financial commitment. It took a season and a half for Rosenthal to re-calibrate after Tommy John surgery, but he seemed to have found the form that made him a star closer for the Cardinals early in his career. Oakland’s $11MM investment is now on the 60-day injured list.

The Rays lost Nick Anderson and large swaths of their bullpen, as have the Yankees, who are down a couple of southpaws and their first baseman. A strained oblique sent Adalberto Mondesi to the injured list on Opening Day. Josh Donaldson doubled in his first plate appearance – and then headed to the injured list. The Rangers have done a full line change in the bullpen, and veterans James Paxton, Dexter Fowler, and Seranthony Dominguez are all out for the year.

The first punches of the 2021 season have been thrown. Some teams have had better luck than others, but all face the reality of a long season. Injuries are not the fun part of the game, but they are a part of baseball. If nothing else, every injury provides an opportunity for somebody else. Narratives change, but baseball continues, and we crown new heroes every day. After all, Adam Wainwright’s iconic strikeout of Carlos Beltran in the 2006 postseason never happens if Jason Isringhausen isn’t injured in September, for example. Tom Brady doesn’t get a chance to start if Drew Bledsoe isn’t injured. And so on.

Which team’s new reality is most disconcerting? Which team’s early injuries have changed their long-term fortunes the most? And who did I leave out? (Poll link for app users)

Which Team Should Be The Most Concerned By Their Injury Situation?
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., et al 36.14% (2,251 votes)
White Sox: Jimenez, Anderson & Engel 16.17% (1,007 votes)
Blue Jays: Springer, Yates & Pearson 11.99% (747 votes)
Dodgers: Bellinger & Betts 8.78% (547 votes)
Mets: Carrasco, Lugo, Betances, and Davis 5.59% (348 votes)
Yankees: The Bullpen & Voit 4.91% (306 votes)
Nationals: COVID-19 Outbreak 3.31% (206 votes)
Rays: The Bullpen 3.29% (205 votes)
Athletics: Puk & Rosenthal 3.19% (199 votes)
Mariners: Paxton & Kyle Lewis 2.87% (179 votes)
Diamondbacks: Gallen & Marte 1.93% (120 votes)
Astros: Framber Valdez, et al 1.14% (71 votes)
Rangers: The Bullpen 0.69% (43 votes)
Total Votes: 6,229

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies traded one of the best players in franchise history without adding much in the way of major league talent this offseason. That would seem to indicate the franchise is headed for a full rebuild, but they’ve held onto the rest of their top players so far.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor-League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rockies began the 2020 season red hot but fell off just as sharply, losing 31 of their final 46 games. Ultimately, Colorado’s 26-34 record was a slight step back from their 71-91 finish the year before, nowhere near the 94-win pace owner Dick Monfort boldly predicted last February. Back-to-back down years set the stage for change this winter.

For the second consecutive year, much of the focus on the Rockies’ offseason revolved around Nolan Arenado. The star third baseman signed a seven-year, $234MM contract extension in February 2019. Less than a year later, though, Arenado made plenty of headlines when he voiced frustration with organizational leadership, telling reporters in January 2020 he felt “disrespected” by the front office. That didn’t stop Arenado from sticking in Denver for the season, but there was plenty of speculation about the 29-year-old potentially being on the move last winter after another losing season.

Arenado did wind up traded, although that wasn’t an inevitable outcome. His lofty contract presented a challenge for potential buyers on the heels of a season with lost gate revenues. Making matters worse, Arenado was coming off by far the worst offensive season of his career, having slumped to a .253/.303/.434 line while battling a shoulder injury.

Still, Arenado’s elite track record attracted plenty of reported interest. The Mets, Braves and Dodgers were among the clubs that either spoke with the Rockies or were speculated as potential fits (although Colorado never seemed likely to send him to their division rivals in Los Angeles). Ultimately, it wound up being the Cardinals that pulled the trigger on an Arenado deal in late January.

The Rockies got five players back from St. Louis, none of whom looks to be a potential franchise-changing talent. Southpaw Austin Gomber is the most famous, having pitched to a 3.72 ERA/4.62 SIERA over 104 career MLB innings. He is capable of stepping right into the big league rotation. But as a 27-year-old with below-average velocity and swinging strike rates, Gomber profiles as a back-of-the-rotation type.

The other four players in the Arenado deal have yet to reach the majors. Corner infielder Elehuris Montero was once a top 100 prospect; the powerful 22-year-old now sits eighth in the Colorado farm system, per Baseball America. Fellow infielder Mateo Gil and right-hander Tony Locey are a little further down the organizational rankings, while righty Jake Sommers did not make the Rockies’ top 30.

Arenado’s contract and lackluster 2020 numbers made it unlikely the Rockies would be able to bring back an elite young player in a trade. Nevertheless, the return they ultimately received felt light, especially given the financial hoops the team had to jump through to push the deal across the finish line. Colorado agreed to pay down $51MM of Arenado’s contract, including his entire $35MM salary for 2021. Meanwhile, the Cardinals agreed to guarantee an extra year on the eight-time Gold Glove winner’s contract and permit him to opt-out of the deal after 2022 (in addition to his previous post-2021 opt-out opportunity) in exchange for Arenado waiving his no-trade clause.

Without knowing what other offers were on the table, it’s impossible to say the Rockies should’ve taken a different return from another organization. It’s likely Colorado values the players they received more highly than public prospect rankers and observers do. But the Arenado saga seems to reflect poorly on the team, however one feels about the player’s public comments. Angering the face of the franchise to such an extent the organization feels compelled to trade him while his value is at its nadir is surely an outcome nobody with the Rockies would’ve foreseen or desired when signing him to a mega-extension less than two years before.

Arenado’s departure was the most significant of the winter, but he wasn’t the only familiar face to leave town. The Rockies non-tendered catcher Tony Wolters and outfielder David Dahl last November. Moving on from Wolters wasn’t unexpected. Colorado stuck by him for a while based on his defense and clubhouse presence, but the 28-year-old has simply never hit at an acceptable level.

The latter cut was more surprising. Dahl has dealt with myriad injuries and was terrible in 2020, but he’d been an above-average hitter between 2017-19. Projected for an arbitration salary in the $2.5MM range, he’d have certainly been affordable enough to keep around. Ultimately, it seems the front office just wanted to give opportunities to other players.

With Dahl gone, the Rockies will turn to a combination of Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Garrett Hampson and Yonathan Daza in the outfield. Blackmon has a long track record of high-end hitting, although he fell off precipitously down the stretch last season after a blistering start. The rest of the group is looking to establish themselves as core pieces for the future. Tapia, Daza and Hampson are contact-oriented speedsters, while Hilliard has huge power but needs to rein in his strikeout totals.

Wolters’ departure leaves just two catchers on the 40-man roster. The season-opening job belongs to returnees Elias Díaz and Dom Nuñez, although an injury and/or underperformance could open the door for José Briceño, who inked a minors contract over the offseason.

Another pair of minor-league signees have easier paths to playing time on the infield. C.J. Cron and Chris Owings had their contracts selected to the 40-man roster prior to Opening Day. Cron has some on-base deficiencies but brings plenty of power, so the appeal of adding him to Coors Field is obvious. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over the Rockies’ first basemen of the past few years. No team got less production at the position from 2018-20, where the now-retired Daniel Murphy and Ian Desmond (who has opted out of the 2021 season over COVID-19 concerns) failed to live up to multi-year free agent contracts.

Owings will get some early-season run at second base. Top prospect Brendan Rodgers finally seemed in line for everyday playing time, but a hamstring strain in Spring Training will sideline him at least into late April. Once Rodgers returns, Owings figures to work in a utility role. Third base belongs to a combination of Josh Fuentes and Ryan McMahon.

Perhaps the most interesting storyline of the coming months is how the team will handle star shortstop Trevor Story. The 28-year-old is on track to be one of the top players on next winter’s free agent market, so Story looks like an obvious trade candidate on paper. That was also true over the winter though, particularly after the Arenado deal. Yet general manager Jeff Bridich shot down speculation about an offseason Story trade and pushed back against the notion the franchise was embarking on a full-scale teardown.

Indeed, the two-time All-Star opened the year in Colorado. A midseason deal still seems the most likely outcome but an acquiring team would no longer be able to tag Story with a qualifying offer next winter, likely reducing his value compared to what the Rockies could’ve received over the offseason. At the same time, the team and Story’s representatives had not discussed a potential extension as of late February. The Rockies’ lack of action while Story’s service clock ticks is rather puzzling, but it’s conceivable they can salvage the situation with a midseason trade if he performs up to expectations over the first few months.

There’s a case to be made for the Rockies to trade off a few key pitchers, as well. Like Story, Jon Gray is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. He looked like a speculative offseason trade candidate but his name didn’t come up in any substantive rumors. Gray had a terrible 2020 season, so there’s plenty of logic for the Rockies in hoping he can rehabilitate his value with a decent start this year.

The situation isn’t as urgent for Opening Day starter Germán Márquez, but there’s a case to be made for Colorado to move him as well. Márquez is one of the game’s more underrated arms. He throws in the mid-90’s with a pair of plus breaking balls, has had plenty of success despite a brutal home environment for pitchers, and just turned 26 years old. Márquez is also reasonably controlled through 2024 under the extension he signed two years ago. That makes him a potential franchise building block, but he’s also the organization’s most valuable potential trade piece. A deal doesn’t seem especially likely given Bridich’s comments about avoiding a full rebuild, but there’s an argument to be made for putting him on the block this summer.

Márquez and Gray will be followed in the rotation by Gomber and holdover Antonio Senzatela. Kyle Freeland would’ve gotten a starting spot but a shoulder strain led to a season-opening IL stint. Freeland’s injury might’ve played a role in the Rockies’ decision to sign Jhoulys Chacín to a one-year deal on the evening before Opening Day. The right-hander returns to Colorado on the only guaranteed free agent contract the Rockies gave out all offseason.

There wasn’t a whole lot of turnover in the bullpen. The club did bring in the hard-throwing Robert Stephenson as part of a deal that sent Jeff Hoffman to the Reds. Stephenson and Hoffman are both one-time top prospects who showed flashes of promise but generally hadn’t lived up to expectations with their previous teams, so it’s something of a challenge trade. Rule 5 draftee Jordan Sheffield is the only other outside addition to the current bullpen, which will lean heavily on returnees Daniel Bard, Tyler Kinley, Yency Almonte and Mychal Givens. Unfortunately, former closer Scott Oberg might not be able to continue his career after a setback with persistent blood clots in his throwing arm.

The 2021 season doesn’t figure to be an especially enjoyable one for Rockies’ fans. The current roster comprises mostly unproven youngsters, journeymen and bounce back hopefuls. Bridich may bristle at the notion of a full-on rebuild, but the Rockies aren’t in position to keep up with the powerhouse Dodgers and Padres at the top of the division. Rather, public projections suggest they’re likely to finish last in the NL West (and near the bottom of MLB as a whole).

Perhaps more important to the organization than their place in the 2021 standings is whether they can rebuild a culture that, at least from the outside, seems to have gone sour. Arenado’s vocal displeasure with franchise leadership was the most visible example of frustrations, but the Rockies appear to have issues far beyond their spat with the former face of the franchise.

Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of the Athletic published a lengthy piece last month that details mounting frustrations among some players and lower-level front office members with a few of Monfort’s and Bridich’s roster decisions and their perceived lack of communication of the organization’s long-term vision. Rosenthal and Groke also question whether the Rockies’ analytics department, which saw the departures of four of its six staffers over the winter, is properly equipped to help Monfort and Bridich build a sustainable winner moving forward. The article is well worth reading in full for Rockies’ fans who haven’t yet perused it.

How does the MLBTR readership feel about the course the Rockies charted this winter? (poll link for app users)

Grade The Rockies' Offseason.
F 51.36% (1,242 votes)
D 31.72% (767 votes)
C 12.45% (301 votes)
B 2.36% (57 votes)
A 2.11% (51 votes)
Total Votes: 2,418

 

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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It was another offseason of short-term veteran additions for the Detroit Tigers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

On January 18, 2016, the Tigers inked Justin Upton to a six-year, $132.75MM free agent contract. The first overall pick of the 2005 draft was a three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner. He was MLBTR’s fourth-ranked free agent of the 2015-16 free agent class. Entering his age-28 season, he was coming off a 4.2 bWAR campaign in his only year with the Padres. In short, he was a get.

Upton wouldn’t stay long, however. He was gone by mid-2017, traded to the Angels, who re-worked his contract to avoid an opt-out clause Upton could have triggered after 2017. Had he stayed in Detroit to complete that deal, Upton would be entering the final year of that contract this season.

Somewhat amazingly, Tigers GM Al Avila – who took over the August before the Upton offseason – had not signed a single free agent to a multi-year deal since Upton. The nearly-five-year drought ended this offseason. Come on down, Robbie Grossman. The former A’s left fielder signed a whopping two-year, $10MM deal to achieve this important landmark in the Tigers’ rebuild. Make no mistake, it is an important landmark.

Detroit has yet to really pull themselves from the rebuild that started back in 2017. Signing Grossman isn’t exactly analogous to the intent-to-contend contacts we’ve seen in the past for Jayson Werth, Jason Heyward, or even George Springer this winter, but the Grossman deal does represent an important signal that the Tigers believe the time is coming when they will be ready to contend again.

The time is right, considering the arrival of much-touted pitching prospects like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and soon, Matt Manning. For now, however, those youngsters haven’t shown to be impact contributors in the Majors. Their careers are just beginning, however.

As for Grossman , he’s flown under the radar as a productive hitter over the past five seasons. He was particularly good over 192 plate appearances last year for the A’s. He slashed .241/.344/.482, good for a 127 wRC+. He does just enough in almost every facet of the game, including with the glove. He walks at an above-average rate, avoids strikeouts at an above-average rate, he runs better than most, and he fields his position well enough. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power, and he’s not really elite at any one thing.

For the Tigers, the Grossman deal – as well as the rest of their offense – wasn’t so much about capturing upside, however. The ceiling on their roster rises or falls with the fortunes of their young players: Mize, Skubal, Willi Castro, Akil Baddoo, Gregory Soto, Bryan Garcia, and eventually, Manning, Isaac Paredes, Spencer Torkelson, Daz Cameron, Riley Greene, and others. Grossman represents a desire to raise the floor for this team and prevent the sort of disastrous season that might slow their organizational momentum.

So, too, does the return of Jonathan Schoop on a one-year, $4.5MM deal. Schoop hit .278/.324/.475 in 177 plate appearances last season, a solid 114 wRC+. He’s better defensively than you might think, given his power profile at the plate. He was worth 4 outs above average in 2020, trailing only Adam Frazier and Nicky Lopez among second baseman. He also added the ability to play first and third during spring training.

Wilson Ramos has long been thought of as a bat-first catcher, but the Tigers feel good enough about his ability to usher this young staff into the Majors to sign him to an affordable one-year deal. Jake Rogers hopes to claim the position in the long-term, but they can take their time with the 26-year-old with the veteran Ramos on hand.

Similarly, Jose Ureña and Julio Teheran hope to keep the Tigers’ young arms from overwork. Teheran somewhat surprisingly won his rotation spot while on a minor league deal this spring. He showed some promise, if not to return to the guy he was in Atlanta, at least to post better numbers than in 2020. He was an unmitigated disaster for the Angels with a 10.50 ERA/6.19 SIERA over 31 1/3 innings. Over nine starts, he made it as deep as five innings exactly two times, particularly struggling to keep the ball in the yard. He served up 12 home runs while only striking out 20 hitters.

Ureña made five starts in 2020 with a 5.40 ERA, but he was made largely expendable by a strong stable of young rotation candidates in Miami. How long he stays in Detroit’s rotation will be dependent on a number of factors, including how he fares early in the season.

Derek Holland came out of spring training with real positivity about his re-captured velocity and ability to be a difference-maker for the Tigers out of the pen. Truth be told, he’s a low-cost gamble for the Tigers, who will need a plethora of bullpen arms to survive the 162-game season and protect their young arms. Holland may have some worldly wisdom to impart, himself having once been a promising rotation arm on a World Series team. He flashed some of that promise as a member of the Giants’ rotation in 2018, but it’s been a rough couple of seasons since then.

The same can be said for Nomar Mazara, who overlapped with Holland in Texas during the 2016 season. There was legitimate hope that a change of scenery might have prompted a breakout with the White Sox in 2020, but a complete lack of power tanked those expectations. He hit just .228/.295/.294 across 149 plate appearances with a meager .066 ISO. There’s little reason to expect Mazara’s power to have completely evaporated, so the Tigers will give him another chance to “come into his own” as their everyday right fielder. If nothing else, he doesn’t even turn 26 until late April, so a breakout isn’t inconceivable. The track record is hard to ignore, however. If he’s able to muster a wRC+ north of 100, it will be the first time in his career he’s able to do so.

Baddoo rounds out their offseason additions. Taken in the Rule 5 draft from the Twins, the speedy outfielder had a mere 29 games in High-A to his name before this season. He has shown a good approach and a bit of pop in the little minor league action he saw with Minnesota, but he should have an opportunity to play in Detroit.

It would seem unlikely that the 22-year-old would stick on the roster the whole season, but then he launched a home run on the first Major League pitch he saw. He hit a grand slam the next day and a walk-off single the day after that. Suddenly, there’s a bit of excitement around the Silver Spring native. Through four games, he rocks a comical .455/.455/1.182 triple slash line. One of these days, Baddoo will play a Major League game and fail to register a hit, but it hasn’t happened yet. The hype train has left the station and room is running out on the bandwagon.

None of these moves are meant to move in the needle like, say, Upton back in the day. But with this grab bag of veterans, the Tigers hope to foster a more competitive atmosphere, a structural foundation to allow the kids the space to grow at their own speed. This team is not likely to compete this season, they’re more-or-less the unanimous pick to finish last in the AL Central, but it’s arguable that even a month or two of competitive play could prove beneficial to the youth on the roster. Best case, young players like Mize and Skubal take off, and the rest of the roster is capable enough to give some legs to the Tigers as a first half surprise team. Alternatively, any of these veterans might be flipped at the deadline, and none weigh heavy on the long-term ledger  – not even Grossman.

How would you grade the Tigers’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

How Would You Grade The Tigers' Offseason?
B 41.53% (878 votes)
C 35.19% (744 votes)
D 10.12% (214 votes)
A 8.14% (172 votes)
F 5.01% (106 votes)
Total Votes: 2,114

 

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox made a big starting pitching acquisition, signed the best reliever on the market, and went for a modest right field solution.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The White Sox kicked off their offseason with the firing of manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper.  Rather than allow GM Rick Hahn to run a traditional managerial hiring process, White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided to put Tony La Russa back in a managerial role for the first time since 2011, despite awareness of the manager’s second DUI having occurred in February 2020.  I wrote about the situation at greater length back in November.  Though the La Russa hiring brought the White Sox some backlash, it didn’t seem to have much effect on their free agent pursuits.  And as of a few weeks ago, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times put it, “Sox players have expressed nothing but acceptance and support for La Russa.”

At the December non-tender deadline, the White Sox made the expected decision to cut Nomar Mazara loose.  2020 marked the third consecutive year in which the White Sox received replacement-level play from their primary right fielder.  With free agent options ranging from George Springer to Joc Pederson, the White Sox instead pounced on…Adam Eaton.  I thought the club would aim bigger than a reunion with the 32-year-old, whose ceiling would appear to be something around 2 WAR.  The White Sox did not seriously engage with Springer, who went to the Blue Jays for six years and $150MM.  Pederson, intent on the chance to prove himself against left-handed pitching, landed with the Cubs in January on a contract similar to Eaton’s.

Around the same time as the Eaton signing, the White Sox swung a major trade with the Rangers to acquire Lance Lynn.  The price for Lynn’s age-34 season was steep: six years of control of 26-year-old sophomore Dane Dunning, plus a 40-grade prospect in Weems.  Dunning was considered a 50-grade prospect before the 2020 season, in which he bolstered his stock with seven solid post-Tommy John surgery starts as an MLB rookie.  Lynn is both a better pitcher than Dunning in 2021 and a more reliable one.  Lynn led MLB in innings last year, and ranked fifth with 6.46 innings per start.  He’s one of the game’s few remaining horses, and the White Sox have him at a below-market $8MM.  Lynn fits nicely into the team’s rotation with Dallas Keuchel, behind ace Lucas Giolito.

The White Sox added Giolito’s former high school pitching coach, Ethan Katz, but weren’t successful in locking up the righty to a long-term deal.  On March 1st, Giolito said to James Fegan of The Athletic, “There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine.  I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.”  The White Sox did engage with Giolito at some point after that comment was made, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  The White Sox haven’t reached an in-season extension with a player anytime recently, and they may have to try again with Giolito in the spring of 2022, when he’ll have four years of MLB service under his belt.  The most recent comparable might be Kyle Hendricks’ March 2019 deal, covering one arbitration year and potentially four free agent seasons for a $55.5MM guarantee.  As someone actively involved in the players’ union, Giolito probably isn’t keen on giving much of a discount.

The White Sox would eventually round out their rotation in late January with the signing of Rodon.  Having non-tendered him a few months prior, it’s clear that the White Sox wanted to retain their 2019 Opening Day starter only at their price.  The White Sox drafted Rodon third overall in 2014.  He was in the Majors the following year and peaked with a 2.7 WAR 2016 campaign before injuries set in, culminating with May 2019 Tommy John surgery.  Rodon returned last summer to make four appearances, but then got a “wake-up call,” as he described it, when the Sox non-tendered him in December.  Having experienced the White Sox throughout their rebuilding phase, he didn’t want to miss out now that they’re a contender.  After an impressive spring training, I’m intrigued to see what a second act might look like for the 28-year-old lefty.

In addition to Lynn, Chicago’s other major strike of the offseason was the signing of the best reliever on the market, Liam Hendriks.  As a 32-year-old, Hendriks wasn’t going to get the five-year contract standards set by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.  Hendriks (or his agent) was instead seemingly intent on setting an average annual value record for relievers.  That’s how we wound up with a contract structure I’d never seen before, a three-year $54MM deal that includes a fourth-year club option in which the buyout value of $15MM matches the option price.  So Hendriks is getting $54MM no matter what, but with the fourth year not technically guaranteed, the AAV is $18MM.  So why wouldn’t the White Sox pick up the 2024 option?  If it’s declined, the buyout is paid in ten annual installments, so there’s a modest benefit to the club in the event Hendriks is completely undesirable for ’24 whether due to injury or poor performance.

Unique contract structure aside, the White Sox landed a lockdown stopper who put up a 1.79 ERA, 38 K%, and 5.7 BB% from 2019-20 over 110 1/3 innings.  He led all traditional relievers in innings over that period and has proven himself capable of going more than one inning.  Relievers are a fickle bunch, but it looks like the White Sox acquired a relief ace they can lean on heavily in the postseason.  Hahn has put together a flamethrowing bullpen.  Four of their current relievers – Codi Heuer, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Jose Ruiz – actually throw harder than Hendriks’ 96.3 mile per hour average fastball.  It’s also a largely untested bullpen behind Hendriks, with four current members who have yet to reach 31 career innings.

Though not exactly part of their offseason, March saw a couple of major, related developments for the White Sox.  Eloy Jimenez ruptured his left pectoral tendon during a spring training game, requiring surgery with a 4-5 month recovery timeline.  A few days later the club selected the contract of 2019 first rounder Andrew Vaughn, making good on their pledge not to manipulate his service time even though they’ve been unable to sign him long-term thus far.  Not only is the club convinced Vaughn will successfully make the jump from High-A to the big leagues (with alternate site time in-between), but they’re also asking him to learn left field to replace Jimenez.

Even before the Jimenez injury, the White Sox elected not to bring in a full-time designated hitter to replace Edwin Encarnacion.  Backup catcher Zack Collins snagged the Opening Day DH assignment, with third catcher Yermin Mercedes riding a hot streak to get the next three starts.  Once Mercedes cools off, others will surely filter through the DH spot as well.  The White Sox probably aren’t dying to see more of Jimenez in left field once he recovers, so he may join the DH rotation as well.  The best solution might be to try to make the pieces fit until July, at which point the club will know more about Jimenez’s timeline and can acquire someone with real outfield experience.

Even with the Jimenez injury, the White Sox have a solid chance of making the playoffs for the second consecutive year.  Though a Jerry Reinsdorf team going all-in might not involve $100MM contracts, I expect the Sox to continue to be aggressive in their own way in the coming years.  Their contention window is now fully open.

How would you grade Chicago’s offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the White Sox offseason
B 50.27% (1,197 votes)
A 22.22% (529 votes)
C 20.16% (480 votes)
D 3.82% (91 votes)
F 3.53% (84 votes)
Total Votes: 2,381

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The World Series champions added the National League Cy Young winner to their already-stacked rotation. What else is there to say: They’re ready to defend their title.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Contemporaneous with Willy Adames being called out on strikes to seal the 2020 World Series, the Dodgers became the heavy favorites to repeat. That early in the offseason – literally seconds – the current champ almost has to be favored, but it was especially true of these Dodgers. After eight years of playoff blah-ness, they finally put the narrative of their postseason failures to rest. Thus began a new era of Dodger baseball.

What’s more, after eight consecutive division titles, one would think they snagged their 2020 rings in a last-gasp effort to validate an aging core. Au contraire: Somehow, they feel more like a team on the rise.  Mookie Betts is entering just his second season with the team and the first of a 12-year mega-contract. The roster boasts an enviable collection of under-27 playmakers in Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Will Smith, Brusdar Graterol, Dustin May, Gavin Lux, and Tony Gonsolin. Even if we turn to the farm, there are reinforcements for the coming years on the way in Keibert Ruiz, Jacob Amaya, Josiah Gray, Michael Busch, Kody Hoese, Andy Pages, Ryan Pepiot, and whatever other scrap-heap pick-up they turn into their next Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, or Max Muncy (cough Sheldon Neuse cough).

Much has changed in the months since their ascent to the peak of MLB’s hierarchy. Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove now live in their division, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco are New York Mets, even the baseball itself is different. But one thing hasn’t changed: the Dodgers are still the favorites. Vegas has the Dodgers at +350, and they’re the overwhelming favorite pick among pundits.

Yet, it was largely a quiet winter for President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman. By the time February rolled around, the only free agent he’d signed to a Major League deal was Tommy Kahnle, who will likely miss all of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Eventually, however, the Dodgers would step into the spotlight and flex their considerable financial might. They made their big splash in signing Trevor Bauer to a hefty, and yet relatively low-risk three-year deal that’s meant to maximize their current window without overburdening their long-term payroll. Though it took awhile to consummate, ultimately, Bauer in Hollywood was really the only way to appropriately end the polarizing righty’s much-publicized free agency.

For the Dodgers, the deal pushed them into tax payor territory for the first time since 2017. That’s notable mostly because teams have become so tax-averse in recent seasons, though for a team with resources like the Dodgers, it’s hardly a significant development.

The re-signing of franchise icon Justin Turner further pushed them into tax territory. Bringing back Turner on a two-year, $34MM deal pushes the Dodgers past the second tax threshold, meaning that every dollar on the payroll beyond $250MM gets a 62.5% tax. As of now, Cot’s Contracts has the payroll at $262MM, fairly well past that second tax line. If the Dodgers stay over this line for the entire season, they will also have their highest draft pick in 2022 moved back ten spaces. Does that matter? Sure, but not as much as Turner and Bauer helping their title chances.

While Friedman opened up the checkbook this offseason in flashier fashion than is his custom, he also did so in smaller, more Friedman-ian ways. By signing arbitration-eligible players Barnes and Buehler to two-year deals, the Dodgers don’t gain any extra control, but they do get some cost certainty. Barnes signed for two-years, $4.3MM with an additional $400K on the table in incentives based on games played, while Buehler signed for a reasonable two-years, $8MM with a number of baked-in escalators based on the number of games started and where he finishes in Cy Young voting. Buehler will have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility after this deal expires.

The Dodgers said goodbye to a number of long-term pieces, too. Joc Pederson played 748 games as a Dodger, Kiké Hernandez 648 games, Alex Wood appeared in 95 games (only 9 this time around), Adam Kolarek made 46 masterful appearances over two seasons, Floro leaves after 104 appearances since his arrival in mid-2018, Terrance Gore never became a factor, Jake McGee gave them a solid 24 outings plus four more in the playoffs, and Pedro Baez departs after 355 games over seven remarkably steady seasons in the bullpen. The total contribution of those eight departing players amounted to 2.1 bWAR (5.67 bWAR when extrapolated to 162 games). Strictly speaking, Bauer could replenish that supply on his own.

Positionally, the Dodgers hope that Gavin Lux will end up taking many of the at-bats left behind by Hernandez and Pederson.  Taylor will remain as their ninth position player. Matt Beaty or Neuse  – acquired from the A’s – could get an opportunity to backfill the tail end of the roster. The positional flexibility of Taylor, Beaty, and Neuse will help account for any unforeseen injury pretty much anywhere on the diamond except catcher, where the Dodgers have another highly-regarded prospect in Ruiz waiting in the wings.

The most substantive difference between the 2020 Dodgers and the 2021 Dodgers comes on the pitching side. In the rotation, Bauer is the newcomer alongside returning heroes Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, May and Urias. May somewhat surprisingly won the fifth starter’s job, sending veteran David Price to the pen along with Gonsolin, their other primary depth option. That’s seven quality arms that they can turn to throughout the season to soak up chunk innings. Beyond those seven there is a drop-off, but Jimmy Nelson made the roster, and he’s another former starter who will be in the Dodgers’ bullpen.

The bullpen itself is the unit that will look the most different after losing recent mainstays like Baez and Floro. The Kahnle signing might help, but not until 2022. For this season, bringing back Blake Treinen was huge for this team considering the little bit of uncertainty surrounding Kenley Jansen. Jansen is the longest-tenured Dodger after Kershaw, and tales of his demise may be slightly overblown. Despite his struggles, he still finished 2020 with 11 saves in 27 games with a 3.33 ERA/3.03 FIP. His velocity is down, but his batted ball numbers from the regular season were still excellent. Regardless, Treinen was a solid understudy during the playoffs, and he has experience closing games. Graterol’s slow start to the season paired with Joe Kelly being on the injured list has made Treinen all the more critical.

Corey Knebel is the third piece that could prove instrumental to preserving wins. Though he missed all of 2019 and posted just a 6.08 ERA/6.64 FIP, the Dodgers got him before the Brewers were going to DFA him, so the cost was minimal. Prior to his injury, Knebel owned a 3.15 ERA/3.11 FIP over 223 innings with 57 saves. His velocity didn’t come all the way back in 2020, but his curveball was money. He may need to devise a new approach, but he’s an interesting gamble for a somewhat-diminished bullpen.

All told, Bauer’s addition to Kershaw and Buehler at the top of the rotation was the impact move. The roster was already in such good shape, however, that not much else needed to be done to stay ahead of the rapidly-rising Padres.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Grade The Dodgers' Offseason
A 62.87% (1,351 votes)
B 26.99% (580 votes)
F 4.56% (98 votes)
C 4.14% (89 votes)
D 1.44% (31 votes)
Total Votes: 2,149
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