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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a thrilling season on the whole, but a tumultuous roller coaster ride bookended by significant winning and losing streaks ultimately ended on a low note as they missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season. That’s a lengthy drought by their standards, as fans hadn’t yet been forced to endure such a streak during the new millenium.

On the one hand, the club has a formidable crew under team control for 2019, including several franchise mainstays, and can expect a reasonable degree of improvement from its wealth of young talent. On the other hand, its veteran core includes eight players over 30 years of age (six are at least 32), and they could be facing some decline in production and/or injury risk from many members of that group. The club’s front office will surely be taking a slew of complex factors into account as they try to put together a contender for 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart |St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Outlook]

Even after a relatively quiet trade deadline, the Cardinals surged to the forefront of the NL Central race with a torrid August that saw them go 22-6. But a mediocre 12-15 September cost them a chance to compete in the 2018 playoffs, proving that even the surprising midseason replacement of longtime manager Mike Matheny wasn’t enough to flip the club’s fate after a middling 47-46 start to the season. After three consecutive years of seeing their season end with game number 162, the perennially successful Cardinals organization could be facing a sense of urgency to right the ship and get back to October in order to satiate the fan base.

It’s difficult to tell where that process begins. While the team is loaded with fan favorites and high-caliber players in every area of the roster, they’re also staring down one or more significant question marks in their rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield. With their current construction, they’ve got an obviously good team. Unfortunately that’s not likely to cut the mustard in a division where they’re likely to face stiff competition from the Cubs and the now-soaring Brewers, both of whom have younger cores.

One of the simplest avenues would be to add several wins in one fell swoop, by paying for one of the market’s elite talents. The Cardinals have been connected to Bryce Harper this offseason, and have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for Manny Machado as well. Either would fit easily into the club’s puzzle, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend big on a marquee free agent after being putting in strong bids for Jason Heyward and David Price in offseasons past. It’s also worth pointing out that they worked out a deal to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last season before the slugger used his no-trade clause to veto the move to St. Louis. While any realistic offer to add one of the market’s two biggest prizes would surely dwarf any of the three aforementioned contract sums, the Redbirds’ involvement serves as an indicator that adding a superstar bat lies within the realm of possibility.

But the market for both Harper and Machado comes with strong competition, so we can easily assume that the Cards are exploring several contingency plans. For example, the club will likely be motivated to make an upgrade at the hot corner if Machado lands elsewhere. Carpenter is aging and probably profiles best at first base at this point in his career, and Josh Donaldson might be a fitting target after previous reports of interest from St. Louis. Even Mike Moustakas could serve as an interesting add. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees could explore the market for Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar in order to address their rotation, though it’s questionable whether the Cards would have any interest in giving up the type of young arm necessary to get a deal done. (Last night’s trade of James Paxton to the Yankees could also shift New York’s focus from the trade market to free agency for their remaining rotation needs.)

Turning an eye to the outfield, St. Louis may have in-house alternatives to signing Harper, should they lose out in that auction. Rookie Harrison Bader certainly earned a foothold on the center field job, and Ozuna is a lock to hold down left field. While Harper’s presence in right would make for a formidable outfield alignment, Fowler probably can’t be counted out as dead weight after a single horrendous season. Beyond him, the club has former top prospect Tyler O’Neill champing at the bit to follow up on a promising debut.

Absent from that list of in-house options is slugger Jose Martinez, who had an excellent offensive showing but proved to be an outright defensive liability. With that in mind, it seems unlikely he’ll be a part of their outfield plans come springtime (though the possibility shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, either), and his performance at first base even begs questions about whether his glove can be relied upon at all. Overall, the returns on playing him were positive; he yielded an above-average fWAR figure thanks to his excellent contact and on-base skills coupled with above-average power. But if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, they could look to explore shopping the slugger to American League team that might value him a bit more highly thanks to the ability to protect him from being entirely exposed defensively. There’d certainly be a number of suitors.

The bullpen is perhaps the Cardinals’ most glaring area of concern. A number of statistical shortcomings (including the second-highest walk rate of any ’pen in the game) led to a -4.54 WPA figure that would have stood as the worst in all of baseball save for the disastrous showing by a largely inexperienced Marlins relief corps. Norris, who held down the closer role for most of the season and was their bullpen’s most consistent fixture, is set to depart as a free agent. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll probably find it necessary to find at least one viable alternative on the free agent market.

Make no mistake, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be desperate to find anyone with closer experience. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak has said the Cardinals believe flamethrowing righty Jordan Hicks could succeed in that role (though as always that could simply be a negotiating technique), but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually have the job on opening day. The market is littered with former closers (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera), but it’s not difficult to imagine them instead rolling with Hicks and adding an upside lefty like Andrew Miller or Zach Britton. Speculation on specific names aside, it seems inevitable that the bullpen is an area to which they’ll allocate at least some money.

It’s worth noting that St. Louis will almost inevitably see some positive regression in relief performance, too. It’s more likely that Brett Cecil will rebound somewhat than that he’ll endure another career-low performance. Likewise, it’s improbable that the usually-durable Luke Gregerson will spend such an excessive amount of time on the DL. They won’t have Greg Holland walking nearly eight batters per nine innings across half a season’s worth of work, while Sam Tuivailala and Tyler Lyons represent other possible instances of addition by subtraction. Meanwhile John Brebbia, Dominic Leone and Dakota Hudson all had encouraging showings. In other words, while the Cardinals have some work to do in order to cover high-leverage innings, their situation isn’t quite as eyebrow-raising as a team like the Indians, for example.

Martinez, Wacha, Mikolas and rookie sensation Jack Flaherty seem like good bets to return to the rotation for 2019, while Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver and Adam Wainwright all in the mix for starts as well depending on health and performance. There’s room for improvement in their rotation, but it’s also not a bad cast overall; certainly other contenders are facing more daunting rotation questions. The situation gets murkier beyond 2019, though, as the contracts of Wacha, Mikolas and Wainwright all expire at season’s end. For that reason, we could see the Redbirds check in on free agents or trade targets whom they could keep in the fold for multiple seasons beyond the next. There’s no real urgency to do so, but there could easily be motivation given the right price and player.

The Cardinals are also an organization known for locking up many of their young players pre-arbitration, and this spring could present many opportunities to do just that. A wave of young players impressed last season, and the ever-opportunistic Cardinals brass could look to capitalize on the chance on some early extensions. Flaherty, Hicks, Bader and O’Neill could represent a strong core for years to come, and gaining additional control and cost-certainty over some of that group could allow the Cardinals to feel secure as some of their older veterans depart or retire in the near future.

Whatever path the Cardinals take this offseason, it seems unlikely to be a quiet one. With motivation to end an unusually long playoff drought, the organization will want to set new manager Mike Shildt up for success. They’ve got money to spend, a reasonable amount of prospect capital, and just enough positional flexibility on the roster to allow them to fit the right player into the picture if the opportunity arises. That should present a comfortable cavalcade of potential strategies to one simple end: add enough wins to remain competitive with a pair of formidable divisional opponents.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Indians endured the heartbreak of another early exit from the postseason in 2018, and they’re likely to suffer the mass exodus of nearly a dozen free agents. That, combined with several impending player salary increases, a shortage of top prospects, and the looming return to relevance of some rebuilding AL Central teams, poses some difficult questions about the Tribe’s contention window. They’ll enter the offseason foraging for creative (and budget-conscious) ways to address them.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: $25MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $19MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF: $17MM through 2019 (includes $2.5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,412,500 through 2019 (includes $662.5K buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Yonder Alonso, 1B: $9MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout on 2020 vesting/club option)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $14.5MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout on 2021 club option)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $9MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $21MM through 2021 (includes $2MM option on 2022 club option)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $6.9MM through 2020 (includes $900K in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Dan Otero, RP: $1.4MM through 2019 (includes $100K buyout on 2020 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart | Cleveland Indians Payroll Outlook]

While the Indians have enjoyed a sustained run of dominance over the rest of the American League Central for the past three seasons, they’ve fallen short of a championship each year, and every time in a fashion more disappointing than the last. Three consecutive losses have bumped them from the playoffs all three times, and they’re now facing yet another club record payroll (north of $145MM) in a market too small in size to support such a figure.

Worse yet, that payroll estimate comes in spite of the very likely departures of several players who’ve been key contributors during the Tribe’s run of success, including Brantley, Allen, Miller and Chisenhall. The subtraction of those contracts from the books are more than negated by gargantuan expected arbitration raises for Bauer and Lindor, in combination with 10 players who are contractually guaranteed raises on their 2018 salaries. Put more simply, Cleveland is set to subtract talent while adding payroll.

It’s not as though there’s significant cavalry on its way from the farm, either. Four of the club’s five top prospects are still playing at Class A or below, and their highest-ranked outfield prospect (their biggest area of need) in the upper minors is Oscar Mercado, who sits at #15 on MLB Pipeline’s Indians prospect rankings. Only #1-ranked Triston McKenzie appears primed to make an impact in 2019, and the Tribe’s rotation already has five locks in the form of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber.

That’s perhaps a large part of the reason the Tribe is reportedly willing to listen to offers on Kluber and Carrasco this winter, in addition to some other pricey veterans. The logic behind it makes plenty of sense: if the Indians can deal from a strength by trading one of their top starters for a cheap, controllable outfielder who can help now, they’d receive some salary relief while improving their outlook further down the road, and all without greatly diminishing the strength of their 2019 ballclub. After all, McKenzie’s ceiling is nothing to scoff at, and without much divisional competition to worry about (again) in 2019, the club might be less concerned with its regular season starting five than it is with its postseason starting four. And one could certainly argue that there’s no better time to reap a generous return for a premium starting pitcher, given the number of pitching-needy contenders and relative dearth of alternatives on the trade market and in free agency.

Of course, with Kluber being a two-time Cy Young winner and one of the main faces of the franchise, it might be hard for fans to stomach losing him in an effort driven in part by a desire to shed salary. Meanwhile, trading Carrasco for even a player owed the league minimum would save the club less than eight figures next season, so while such a move could still help to fill a hole elsewhere on the roster, it wouldn’t go as far in the way of shedding financial obligations. These factors, along with the immense value each pitcher is expected to deliver on his contract in 2019 (and beyond), make it far from a sure thing that either will end up in a different uniform before Opening Day. Rather, the notion of the Tribe trading one of their top two arms should be seen only as one potential card in their hand as they work to solve a complicated roster puzzle headed into next year.

The biggest gap in that puzzle, as we touched upon earlier, lies in the outfield. Brantley, who’s been a mainstay since his MLB debut in 2009, is set to test free agency for the first time in his career; reports say he’s almost certainly not returning to Cleveland. Cabrera, Davis and Guyer, likewise, are vulnerable to being signed by rival teams at this juncture. Martin, for whom they traded prior to the 2018 non-waiver deadline, is expected to make a full recovery from a life-threatening bacterial infection in time for opening day, but outside of him — assuming he is indeed able to get back to full health — the club’s options are extraordinarily fallible. Kipnis hasn’t had a productive offensive season since 2016. Greg Allen has played below replacement level thus far in 330 career plate appearances. Naquin’s career is full of ups and downs and there’s no telling whether he’ll completely rebound from his recent hip surgery. Former top prospect Bradley Zimmer limped offensively in 2018 and won’t return for quite some time due to a shoulder injury he suffered in Triple-A.

Outside of trading a starting pitcher, the Tribe would appear to have few ways to address their outfield need. They already swung a minor trade with the Pirates that netted them major-leaguer Jordan Luplow, though he’s more of a lottery ticket than an established, reliable piece. One possible avenue would be to cash in prospect capital for a talented corner outfield option; certainly MLB Pipeline’s #84 prospect Nolan Jones could get a conversation started for some solid targets. And with monetary funds largely tapped out as things stand at present, they’re highly unlikely to afford a reliable solution on the free agent market.

Then again, that financial outlook could easily change if the club is able to find a taker for some of their more expensive veterans. Encarnacion and Kipnis, for example, are both on the wrong side of the aging curve. The two combined for just 3.2 fWAR in 2018 but are owed a massive sum of $36.5MM for their services next season. Certainly neither player would be viewed as having any sort of surplus value on his respective salary — quite the contrary — and that’s without even considering the $7.5MM in total buyouts on the pair’s contract options for 2020. Still, either could provide a method of shedding salary if the right team were to show interest. Encarnacion has plenty of pop left in his bat, and could be a fit for a handful of American League clubs. Young OBP machine Yandy Diaz could perhaps step in and fill the DH opening should the parrot fly out of Cleveland. Kipnis, meanwhile, could theoretically be replaced with the addition or promotion of an infielder or outfielder, so there are plenty of options to fill his shoes. Certainly plenty of teams would be interested in bringing a league-average middle infielder into the fold.

Of course, the Tribe’s questions marks are not limited to the outfield. Perhaps an even more pressing issue is the club’s bullpen, which finished in the AL’s bottom three in ERA, FIP and fWAR, and has been ravaged by the free agent departures of Allen, Miller and Perez. Of the group set to return, only Hand finished 2018 with an ERA below 4.00. It’s worth mentioning that Salazar is somewhat of a wild card, but overall the outlook is bleak.

It’s unclear what viable options the club has in the way of improving its relief corps to the level necessary to compete with other powerhouse teams, but the “throw a bunch of spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks” method employed by the club in 2018 was a pronounced failure and hopefully won’t be employed again next season. The in-house group is likely to see some positive regression, of course, but creative methods of bringing in reinforcements are likely to be high on the club’s priority list.

While there are certainly plenty of issues to address for 2019, the long-term outlook brings an entirely different cornucopia of questions. While the Indians have a wide variety of high-end young talent locked up for the near future (Lindor, Ramirez, Clevinger and Hand all come to mind), those players will continue to get significantly more expensive over the next three seasons. During that time, their already-expensive veterans are more likely to decline than they are to repeat their recent performances, and unlike in years past they’ve got very few promising players under team control beyond the next three seasons. The AL Central won’t be a cakewalk forever; teams like the White Sox and Tigers are already past the initial teardown phases of their respective rebuilds and figure to be on the upswing in the coming seasons. All of a sudden, the Tribe is facing some very real longevity concerns, and it’s not unthinkable that they could make some creative moves this offseason as a means of addressing them.

Of course, even if they made next to no major moves from this point through spring training, they’re a contender in every sense of the word. Their rotation remains one of the best in baseball, and they have two of the game’s best young position-player talents in Lindor and Ramirez. The path to a fourth consecutive AL Central Championship doesn’t have much in the way of serious obstructions, so any and all acquisitions the Indians make this winter will simply culminate in slight statistical improvements upon their postseason odds. While they aren’t likely to enter next October as favorites, they’ll have a chance, and as we saw with the 2016 club, sometimes an outside shot can carry a team a long way.

The recently (and unofficially) extended Mike Chernoff has a wide variety of issues to address this offseason, but he’s also got a wide variety of options at his disposal and a relatively low floor as far as overall competitive makeup. There will be some suspense as far as who might stay or go, however, and that very aspect of the club’s offseason outlook means that there will be several interesting storylines to follow. Tribe fans will certainly have an entertaining winter ahead of them in that regard.

Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Dodgers

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In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. In addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, that piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.

With Philadelphia in our rear view mirror, we turn our attention to the biggest spender in recent years: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Team Leadership

Despite being a marquee franchise, the Dodgers found themselves embroiled in a quagmire during much of the last decade, with Frank McCourt’s tumultuous ownership ending with a bankruptcy sale to Guggenheim Partners in 2012. Guggenheim — consisting of Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton, and Todd Boehly — added Billie Jean King and Ilana Kloss as minority owners in 2018, comprising the current group. As is well known, they have spent aggressively throughout their ownership, fueled in large part by an $8.3 billion, 25-year television rights deal with Time Warner.

After directing a run of success in Tampa Bay, Andrew Friedman joined the Dodgers as President of Baseball Operations on a lucrative five-year, $35 million deal after the 2014 season. Despite that massive contract, this is actually a time of some uncertainty with the front office. Friedman named Farhan Zaidi his general manager shortly after taking over in 2014, but Zaidi left to run the rival Giants earlier this month. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers have yet to guarantee an outside free agent even $50 million during Friedman’s tenure.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.

As with the Phillies, we’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Dodgers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. With the Dodgers, this captures nearly the entirety of the McCourt years and all of Guggenheim’s free spending ways. Here is what the Dodgers have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

The Dodgers payroll story tracks the story of their ownership changes remarkably well. In the mid-2000s, McCourt increased spending to build a winner before corralling expenditures as his divorce from ex-wife Jamie and the effects of purchasing the team with so much debt caught up with him. Then the Guggenheim folks showed up and blew the top off of what most of us thought was the ceiling for spending outside of the Bronx. Importantly, the figures above do not include luxury tax payments, meaning that Dodgers spending was actually notably higher over that span thanks to the taxes that accompanied their lavish spending.

Unlike Philadelphia, the Dodgers were substantial players in the Latin American amateur market before Major League Baseball imposed significant spending restrictions, handing out substantial deals to the likes of Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez, and Erisbel Arruebarrena. In the end, as gaudy as the Major League spending figures were, amateur spending added a significant amount to overall expenditures reflected above, at least during the Guggenheim period of ownership.

Future Liabilities

For a team known for its massive spending habits, the Dodgers have surprisingly little in the way of long-term guarantees, especially when compared to other big spenders in major markets competing for the World Series each year.

Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option — in the case of Kenley Jansen, this is an opt-out prior to the 2020 season.  As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

The Dodgers’ new deal with Clayton Kershaw gives them an ace on a reasonably short-term deal. While the annual financial commitment is high, the Dodgers must have been pleased to keep the term so modest.

Beyond Hill, their salary sheet is loaded with short-term commitments until we hit Maeda. Maeda’s contract is heavily incentive driven. Maeda receives $3 million annually, then receives the following incentives:

  1. $0.15 million for making Opening Day roster
  2. $1 million for each of 15 and 20 starts, then $1.5 million for each of 25, 30, and 32 starts
  3. $0.25 million for each of 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, and 190 innings pitched, then $0.75 million for 200 innings pitched

It is an extraordinarily team-friendly pact, one that has played out handsomely for Los Angeles. From a budgetary standpoint, however, it does present plenty of uncertainty.

At the bottom of the chart, we see two lines with hefty numbers but no tax component. First, we see the remaining half of the $48 million owed to Scott Kazmir from his three-year deal covering the 2016-18 seasons. Instead of receiving $16 million per year or something close to it, Kazmir received $8 million annually for six years. As such, he will receive his $8 million annual payouts in 2019-21, but those cash receipts won’t count against the Dodgers’ luxury tax figure. Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra obtained a substantial guarantee from the Dodgers, but he is yet to pass Double-A and didn’t record an inning in affiliated ball in 2018. Because L.A. removed him from their 40-man roster (under a rule that has now been amended), his significant cash guarantees do not count against the luxury tax figure for the Dodgers either.

Moving to arbitration, the Dodgers feature a pair of massive paydays for pending free agents in Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood. On the other hand, they appear to have “lucked” into artificially deflated arbitration pay rates for shortstop Corey Seager due to a poorly timed injury in his platform year. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

The Dodgers have a number of key contributions controlled via arbitration, but as is the case with most teams, there are some players here who stand a good chance of being non-tendered. From this viewpoint, it looks like Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup will likely get the boot. Regardless of what happens with that trio, only a couple of million dollars in savings are there to be found.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

This is where things get interesting. Really interesting. Last week, the Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times got hold of a document prepared by the Dodgers before the 2017 postseason for potential investors indicating that the club intended to stay below the luxury tax threshold each year from 2019-22. This would be a striking shift from the free-spending club. The document pegged future payrolls roughly $5 million south of the luxury tax threshold in each season once player benefits are factored in, as they are for luxury tax purposes, projecting payroll at $185 million in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021, and $196 million in 2022.

Will such a spending restriction come to fruition? Your guess is as good as mine. It’s worth stressing that the document was prepared before the 2017 postseason and that Shaikin cited a team official as saying that he would be “shocked” if the payroll stayed below $200 million in 2019. The team’s plans might have changed in the last 13 months, especially after back-to-back World Series losses. But one significant data point out there regarding Dodgers spending in 2019 suggests that the 2018 payroll will be far more predictive of spending in 2019 and beyond than were the payrolls from 2013-17.

Are the Dodgers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Simply put, this depends on how you feel about the two preceding paragraphs. If the Dodgers haven’t altered their plans since that document was prepared, it’s difficult to see them making a serious push for either player. If the Dodgers were merely posturing with the leaked document or setting forth an aspirational threshold that they don’t actually expect to hit, Harper or Machado is surely in play as the franchise continues to be flush with cash as they chase a World Series title that has proved elusive. (Those same leaked projections also predicted significant revenue increases.)

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

Whereas the Phillies will clearly spend and spend big, the Dodgers enter this offseason as a wild card. They have enough talent on the Major League roster and in the upper levels on the farm to expect another excellent season in 2019 without marquee additions this winter. They lack an obvious hole — provided, at least, that the Dodgers believe in Matt Kemp’s 2018 resurgence. Of course, even if they don’t buy into Kemp repeating his surprising success, Alex Verdugo is likely ready to jump to the big club to take his job.

If the Dodgers are serious about capping their spending south of the tax line, they won’t make a big move. Even removing Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup, the Dodgers are projected to spend $196.5 million including the hits for Kazmir, Sierra, and Toscano. Removing that trio, they are still at $184.3 million. There just isn’t enough payroll space to make a splash. If, on the other hand, the Dodgers get serious about Harper, they could create enough financial wiggle room to sign him by upping payroll by a few million dollars, shipping out Puig, and trading one of their lefty starters: Wood, Rich Hill, or Hyun-Jin Ryu. Friedman would likely be able to find a market for his moderate-sized contracts should he elect to go that route, though Ryu would have to approve any deal before June 15th of 2019 since he accepted a qualifying offer and is therefore treated like a signing free agent.

While it seems crazy to think that they’ll actually hold tight to their purse strings, the presence of impact talent on the farm and a strong Major League roster lends credence to the idea that L.A. could roll into 2019 with their core largely intact from 2018, allowing Machado to leave in free agency after a mercenary visit while passing on the chance to bring Harper back to the Southwest. Crazier things have happened.

We’ll find out if I’m a chump for believing this in the coming weeks.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $195 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: -$1.5 million

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Giants reassigned general manager and longtime front office fixture Bobby Evans in order to bring some fresh ideas into the mix after two straight disappointing seasons.  Now, newly-hired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi faces a tall order in streamlining an expensive, veteran-heavy, underachieving roster and helping guide the Giants back to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[San Francisco Giants Depth Chart | San Francisco Giants Payroll Information]

The top eight names in the “guaranteed contracts” section (everyone except Tony Watson and Pablo Sandoval) are slated to earn approximately $135.84MM in 2019, coming off a season in which the octet generated a combined 8.3 fWAR.  That’s a lower total fWAR than Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom produced as individuals in 2018, which is indicative of the troubling situation in which San Francisco finds itself heading into this new season.  Between homegrown names that haven’t been producing and high-priced acquisitions that range from underwhelming to disastrous, the Giants simply don’t know what to expect going forward from most of the biggest names on their roster.

Into this situation comes Zaidi, who brings more of an analytically-minded approach to the Giants’ more traditionally “old-school” front office.  Zaidi has experience finding efficiencies while working with payrolls both small (from his time in the Athletics’ front office) and large (as the Dodgers’ GM).  Ideally, the Giants would love to see Zaidi replicate what he did in Los Angeles alongside president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — cut tens of millions in salary while still reaching the postseason every year.  The Dodgers went from touching the $300MM mark in payroll at the start of Zaidi’s tenure to getting under the luxury tax threshold this past season.

Unlike with the Dodgers, however, Zaidi inherits a Giants team that doesn’t have many polished prospects ready to step into regular roles.  And, while the Dodgers had their share of underperforming big contracts, injury questions weren’t quite as prevalent as they are for the Giants’ priciest assets heading into 2019.

Johnny Cueto, for instance, almost surely won’t pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.  Hip surgery could keep Buster Posey from the Opening Day lineup.  Brandon Belt battled knee problems down the stretch and has a lengthy injury history.  Jeff Samardzija missed much of 2018 with shoulder issues, and Mark Melancon’s two years in San Francisco have been punctuated by multiple trips to the disabled list.  Brandon Crawford dealt with nagging knee problems last year, though he also simply hasn’t hit as much over the last two years as he did from 2014-16.

Madison Bumgarner has had his own share of DL time over the past two seasons, which was certainly one reason why his numbers (3.29 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate over 240 2/3 IP) were a step back from his usual ace standards.  That said, Bumgarner is still easily the most intriguing trade chip/extension candidate the Giants have, and what the team decides to do with the southpaw this offseason may quite possibly determine their approach for the rest of the winter.

If Bumgarner is re-signed to another extension, the Giants will add to their ledger of long-term deals and perhaps signal that they’re aiming to get back into contention right away.  A Bumgarner trade, however, could lead one of two scenarios.  First, the Giants could approach 2019 as a bit of a mini-rebuild, to add young talent and clear some money in order to make a renewed push for 2020.  Secondly, the Giants could deal Bumgarner as part of a rebuild on the fly, adding some MLB-ready pieces that would help them fill some holes immediately.

This is complete speculation on my part, and admittedly dealing Bumgarner without getting at least one blue-chip prospect in return would be a bit of a waste.  But, the Giants could explore moving Bumgarner along with either Belt or Evan Longoria in the same deal, accepting only a moderate return of either mid-range prospects, or perhaps a big league player who could help the Giants at another position (such as maybe a third baseman to replace Longoria).  The Giants are reportedly looking to move Longoria, who struggled in his first season outside of Tampa Bay and is still owed over $73MM through 2022.  As for Belt, he was the most productive of the Giants’ long-term assets, though dealing him would free up first base for some combination of other possibilities: giving a look to prospect Chris Shaw, Posey splitting time between first and catcher, or targeting a potentially underpriced asset in free agency or trade.  Both Belt and Bumgarner have partial no-trade clauses that allow them to block deals to 10 and eight teams, respectively, so it could be a bit tricky finding a willing trade partner for this scenario who isn’t on either player’s no-trade list.

Such a deal would give San Francisco more flexibility with both roster construction and the payroll.  After they (barely) ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season, the Giants reset their luxury penalization to zero, and they’ll pay only a first-timer minimum penalty should they surpass the $206MM payroll limit.  So while the team doesn’t necessarily face any huge restraints in regards to spending, getting one big contract off the books is probably a logical step if the team is preparing to make another high-priced addition.

Signing Bryce Harper, of course, would be the biggest such move the Giants could make, though early reports have suggested the club isn’t going to be a major suitor for the 26-year-old free agent.  San Francisco has the resources and the ownership track record to pursue just about any free agent, or to take on a big contract from another team in a trade, though it remains to seen if the Giants will be as aggressive in this regard under Zaidi as they were under the Brian Sabean/Bobby Evans regime.

If we’re mentioning Harper, it’s only fitting that we also at least throw Manny Machado’s name out there.  While Zaidi just a few months removed from bringing Machado to the Dodgers in a trade, a Machado/Giants connection seems unlikely at best.  To make room for Machado at third base or shortstop, San Francisco would have to move either Longoria or Crawford, and neither player has much in the way of immediate trade value thanks to their salaries and lackluster 2018 seasons (plus, Crawford’s contract grants him full no-trade protection).  Eating money to facilitate a Longoria/Crawford trade and also paying $350MM+ for Machado doesn’t seem like a very realistic proposition.

The two corner outfield positions and second base are the most pressing areas of need around the diamond for the Giants.  Barring trades, the other spots will be covered by Longoria at third base, Crawford at shortstop, Belt at first base, defensively-gifted youngster Steven Duggar in center field, and Posey receiving the bulk of playing time behind the plate (while also getting some rest games as a first baseman).  A reunion with veteran backup catcher Nick Hundley has been mentioned as a likely possibility while Posey is on the mend, with youngster Aramis Garcia also in the mix.

Austin Slater, Mac Williamson, Gorkys Hernandez (if he isn’t non-tendered), utilityman Alen Hanson, and Shaw are in the mix for bench duty for perhaps a share of a platoon in left or right field.  For at least one of the two outfield positions, however, the Giants will surely add an established everyday player, either on the trade front or in free agency.  If a record-setting contract for Harper is too rich for the Giants’ blood, other free agent options include Michael Brantley or old friend Andrew McCutchen.  A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, though if he is willing to consider a position change, he and Duggar would be a great defensive pairing in AT&T Park’s expansive outfield (or Pollock could play center himself if Duggar isn’t ready for everyday action).

Marwin Gonzalez’s versatility makes him a good fit on most teams, though he’d be particularly useful to the Giants rotating between the corner outfield spots and second base.  Joe Panik was a replacement-level player (0.1 fWAR) last season, and considering his lack of power, the downturn in his defensive metrics, and injury history — not to mention the glut of options on the second-base market — San Francisco could simply non-tender Panik and seek out a more reliable, cost-efficient, and/or controllable option.  Jed Lowrie might be an interesting player to consider in this regard, as a familiar name to Zaidi from their time in Oakland and a quality player who wouldn’t require too lengthy a contract given his age (35 in April).

At a projected $4.2MM in arbitration, Panik isn’t a bank-breaker to retain, though the Giants could get themselves some extra cover at second base with a multi-position addition like Gonzalez.  Not to say that the next Max Muncy or Chris Taylor is awaiting the Giants, but Zaidi’s Dodgers had a knack for finding those types of hidden-gem utility types.  Looking elsewhere around the bench, Sandoval and Hanson line up as the utility options, and the Giants will have to sort through the aforementioned outfield candidates to figure out their backup situation.  Williamson and Hernandez are both out of options, which could give them a leg up on the other possibilities.

San Francisco’s bullpen turned in a quietly solid year in 2018, headlined by Watson’s excellent year and Will Smith posting some strong numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery.  Melancon also pitched well after making his season debut in June, and the Giants are hopeful that he can reclaim his old closer’s job and finally start to provide a quality return on that big contract.  I’d guess the Giants might add another depth arm or two, though relief pitching doesn’t appear to be a major priority for the team this winter.

Losing Cueto is a big hit to the Giants’ rotation, though the team did find some unexpected starting help from rookies Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez last season.  Those two 26-year-old arms are penciled into a starting five that features a lot of uncertainty, given Bumgarner’s trade situation, Samardzija’s health, and Chris Stratton’s inconsistency.  Ty Blach and minor league righties Shaun Anderson and Tyler Beede could also fight for consideration in Spring Training, though Beede will have to strongly rebound from significant struggles at both Triple-A and in a brief big league cameo.

It would theoretically help the Giants quite a bit to add another front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher who could both contribute in 2019 and also anchor the starting staff in the future, should Bumgarner depart in free agency or be shipped out in a trade.  Top free agents like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi could all fit the model as a long-term answer, or a shorter-term solution like J.A. Happ could also be considered.  The Giants are one of several teams who have scouted Yusei Kikuchi and the organization’s interest in the Japanese left-hander dates back years, so San Francisco will certainly be a player if Kikuchi is posted as expected.

While the Giants could shop at the high end of the market, it’s worth noting that the team hasn’t had much luck on expensive pitching contracts in recent years, between the Cueto and Samardzija signings and Matt Cain’s extension.  AT&T Park’s pitcher-friendly reputation make it a popular destination for relatively inexpensive veterans looking for a rebound year, so the Giants could pursue such arms in the hope of finding the next Derek Holland.  The southpaw revived his career in San Francisco last season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings after signing a minor league contract that came with just a $1.5MM base salary.  Holland is sure to land more in his latest trip through free agency, though his price tag won’t be too high for the Giants to consider a reunion.

There’s really no shortage of options facing Zaidi, who is open to any and all possibilities when it comes to getting the Giants on track as quickly as possible.  A total rebuild doesn’t appear to be on the table this winter, nor does a major spending spree, but pretty much anything in between seems to be under consideration.  The Giants could end up being as active and creative of any team this offseason, though it remains to be seen if enough can be done to get the club turned around in time to be a factor in what should be a competitive NL West in 2019.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the last week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • A 10-9 win-loss record didn’t prevent Jacob deGrom from winning the NL Cy Young Award, though that record could impact what the Mets ace will earn in arbitration this winter.  Matt Swartz, creator of MLBTR’s arbitration model, profiles deGrom’s unique situation in the first Arbitration Breakdown piece of the 2018-19 offseason, noting that deGrom could end up being an important precedent for other pitchers in future arbitration cases.
  • Speaking of arbitration, Tim Dierkes presents MLBTR’s annual list of potential non-tender candidates, listing 51 arb-eligible players whose teams could simply not tender them new contracts on the November 30th deadline.  These players could also be candidates to be traded or released before November 30 — since Tim published his list, we’ve already seen one name (Justin Bour, formerly of the Phillies) hit the waiver wire.
  • Speaking of Phillies first basemen, Carlos Santana is rumored to be on the trade market less than a year after signing in Philadelphia, as the team is eager to end the Rhys Hoskins-as-an-outfielder experiment.  Tim takes a look at some teams that could possibly fit as trade partners for the Phillies in finding a new spot for the veteran slugger.
  • Trading Santana is just one of many rumored moves in what is expected to be a very busy offseason for the Phillies.  With the team linked to just about every big free agent and trade target on the market, the question has to be asked, how much do the Phillies have to spend on these acquisitions?  In his first “Projecting Payrolls” piece for MLBTR, Rob Huff breaks down the Phillies’ projected payroll space for the coming offseason, based on such factors as their past spending habits, future commitments, team needs, and more.
  • Our preview of each team’s winter plans continued with seven new entries in the Offseason Outlook series.  This week’s featured teams: the Mariners, Mets (both by Connor Byrne), Pirates, Nationals (both by Jeff Todd). Padres (by Jason Martinez), Yankees (by Steve Adams), and Red Sox (by Mark Polishuk).
  • Patrick Corbin is projected to land the biggest contract of any free agent starting pitcher, leading Ty Bradley to ask MLBTR’s readers which team will end up signing the star left-hander.  The choice was clear, as over 55% of readers polled believe Corbin will return to his home state to sign with the Yankees.
  • We’ll wrap up this Phillies-centric week of original content with another poll, this one from Connor inquiring whether or not Philadelphia will wind up with Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper when the dust settles this winter.  Interestingly, 32.67% of readers polled believe neither player will be a Phillie on Opening Day, with 27.34% predicting the Phillies will sign Harper and 25.77% calling a Machado signing.

Poll: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado And The Phillies

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On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) –  easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.

Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed  that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.

The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.

Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.

Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.

Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

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Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Padres’ were in full rebuild mode by mid-2016, having dealt away any veteran players with value by that year’s trade deadline. Immediate help was not on the way. In fact, it was nowhere close if it even existed. General manager A.J. Preller was going to have his opportunity to build his team from the ground up. Two-and-a-half years later, the Padres have, arguably, the best farm system in baseball and are looking to become legitimate playoff contenders in the next year or two.

Preller is now tasked with putting together a Major League roster that can at least break .500 in 2019 while staying in contention past July 31st. That would be a major step forward for a franchise that has not had a winning season since 2010. The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies, who improved by 14 games from the previous season and didn’t fall out of the pennant race until mid-September, would be a good comparison for what success would look like at the minimum. Matching what the Atlanta Braves did—an 18-game improvement and division championship—would be quite a bit more challenging and represents something like the best-case scenario. Preller’s offseason, which should be very eventful, will have a major effect on whether the team can become a perennial playoff contender and how quickly they can get there.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[San Diego Padres depth chart | San Diego Padres payroll outlook]

With the waves of young and inexpensive talent expected to arrive in San Diego over the next few seasons, the Padres should have the ability to add multiple impact players with high price tags in preparation for their next playoff run. Eric Hosmer, signed last offseason, was the first significant piece. Adding a frontline starting pitcher and either a third baseman or shortstop prior to the 2020 season would appear to be the next big priorities. It’s possible that they will check one or both off of the list as early as the current offseason.

Preller’s first line of business, however, could be to determine how to best sort out the crowded outfield situation. With only Wil Myers guaranteed a spot on the 25-man roster — barring a trade, at least — and everyone else having Minor League options, it doesn’t have to be that complicated. But, assuming that Myers’ third base experiment is over, the Padres have six outfielders and not one of them belongs in Triple-A.

It could take some creativity on Preller’s part, but Myers is certainly a trade candidate. Although he’s due to make just $3MM in 2019, he’ll make $20MM annually over the next three seasons. That normally wouldn’t be a lot for a former Rookie of the Year who averaged 29 homers and 24 stolen bases in his ages 25-26 seasons, can play multiple positions and is still only 27 years old. But he’s been injury-plagued throughout his career and his overall numbers have been underwhelming for a player who fits best at a corner outfield spot.

Hunter Renfroe (.805 OPS, 15.5 AB/HR) and Franmil Reyes (.838 OPS, 16.3 AB/HR) were each particularly impressive in 2018, making them attractive trade targets for a team hoping to add some legitimate right-handed power to their lineup. Travis Jankowski could be a useful reserve and should draw some interest. Manuel Margot and Franchy Cordero, on the other hand, are much less likely to be traded. Margot’s value is down after he struggled in 2018 and he’s too talented for the Padres to sell low on him. The left-handed hitting Cordero missed most of last season due to an elbow injury, keeping him somewhat of an unknown commodity. But, in any case, the Padres will want to hold on to a 24-year-old with 30 home run and 30 stolen base potential.

Hosmer was a disappointment in his first season with the club, but maybe it shouldn’t have been all that unexpected. After a solid rookie season in 2011, he had his worst season as a pro in 2012. He bounced back in 2013 before struggling again in 2014. He had a very good 2015 season, which ended with a World Series championship. His numbers dipped slightly in 2016 and then he was at his best in 2017 (.882 OPS, 25 HR). Not that the Padres were expecting eight years of the 2017 version, but it’s safe to say that he wasn’t nearly as productive as they had hoped in his debut. It’s probable that he’ll continue to be up and down as he was with the Royals while delivering a couple of higher-output seasons somewhere in between.

Other than Hosmer at first base, catcher Austin Hedges is the only other position player who is all but assured to be in the Padres’ Opening Day starting lineup. Acquiring the best catching prospect in baseball, Francisco Mejia, last July has done nothing to change that. Hedges’ defense and leadership ability are much too valuable for a team that will continue to rely so much on young pitching. If the Padres believe that the 23-year-old Mejia is ready for the Majors in 2019, it could make sense to pair him with Hedges, who could be a strong mentor despite his age (26) and lack of MLB experience (2.166 days). Both players have a long ways to go to prove themselves offensively at the MLB level, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that the duo could combine for over 25 homers per season. Of course, Mejia could also be a valuable trade chip and could headline a major deal this offseason. He could also spend some more time in Triple-A. In either of those cases, the Padres would have to bring in a veteran backup to give Hedges an occasional day off. Free agent A.J. Ellis was terrific in that role last season.

While Reyes made plenty of noise during his rookie season, his contributions were somewhat of a surprise. Luis Urias’ debut in late August, however, marked the arrival of one of the organization’s highest-profile prospects. The 21-year-old had a handful of big games, but didn’t have much time to establish himself before a season-ending hamstring injury. Expected to be the team’s second baseman for years to come once he arrived in the Majors, Urias could temporarily slide over to shortstop depending on how things go this offseason.

With top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. closing in on the Majors, the expectation is that the Padres will either add a stop-gap or long-term solution at shortstop or third base. If shortstop is not addressed, Urias could play there until Tatis is ready to step in. If the Padres add a long-term solution at the position, Urias would stay at second base and Tatis would prepare to be the team’s third baseman of the near future. Other players who could figure into the mix in some way or another are Christian Villanueva, who crushed left-handed pitching in 2018 (1.118 OPS, 14 HR) but was awful versus right-handers, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela and Cory Spangenberg. The latter trio is on the bubble to remain on the 40-man roster.

Free agent targets at third base could include another former Royals star, Mike Moustakas, or veterans Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Josh Harrison and Jed Lowrie. Only the 30-year-old Moustakas would appear to fit the team as a potential long-term solution if the Padres were willing to offer him a contract for at least three or four years. A run at Donaldson, whether on a pillow contract or multi-year deal, could be an interesting high-upside possibility if the Padres decide to make a push.

With multiple big-market teams expected to be involved in the bidding, Manny Machado is probably a long shot. But if last offseason was any indication, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Padres got involved on some level. As was the case with Hosmer, they could make a competitive offer early on and then wait for him to circle back if he doesn’t receive a better one. Unless Machado’s stock has dropped dramatically, though, that is not likely to happen.

Of the free agent shortstops, none other than Machado would be expected to sign for more than one or two seasons. Freddy Galvis, who the team raved about during his lone season in San Diego, could return on an affordable multi-year deal with the expectation that he’d move into a utility role once Tatis reached the Majors. Alcides Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jose Iglesias and Jordy Mercer are stop-gap options who would likely cost much less than the $6.8MM that Galvis earned in 2018.

If the Padres are to make a splash this offseason, it would most likely come via trade. Their farm system is good enough to get most any player that is available. Would Cleveland trade Jose Ramirez? Probably not this offseason. Even if they end up trading one of their best pitchers, the Indians are still the class of the AL Central. Eugenio Suarez would be a great fit at the hot corner, but the Reds are also looking to take the next step forward in their rebuild and wouldn’t want to trade one of their best hitters unless the return was not only compelling, but including some quality MLB assets. A three-team scenario involving Miguel Andujar of the Yankees is perhaps not unimaginable. (It’d be complicated, but so was the swap that brought Myers to San Diego.)

One very controversial option would be a buy-low acquisition of Cubs shortstop Addison Russell, who will miss the first month of the season while serving out a 40-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. Last month’s release of lefty reliever Jose Torres, however, could be an indication that the Padres aren’t interested in a player with that kind of baggage. After a strong rookie season in 2017 (4.21 ERA, 8.3 K/9 in 62 appearances), Torres spent 2018 on the Restricted list while serving a 100-game suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. Instead of reinstating him after the season, he was designated for assignment and subsequently released.

Mariners shortstop Jean Segura and third baseman Kyle Seager could be available and either would seem to fit the Padres’ need on the left side of the diamond. Segura’s price tag would be high—not a problem if the Padres like him enough to take on his almost $15MM per year salary for his ages 29-32 seasons—and Seager is still owed around $60MM through 2021 and coming off of a bad season. Using the Myers contract to facilitate a deal is at least an interesting possibility to contemplate. J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco, and Jurickson Profar probably aren’t the huge difference-makers that the Padres are looking for, but they might be likelier to be available in a trade.

Stay tuned. Things could get very interesting if Preller is focused on the trade market to upgrade his lineup.

Despite having a wealth of pitching prospects who are set to reach the Majors sometime in the next year or two, the starting rotation is clearly the weakest link on this roster. Adding a frontline starter to pair with veteran workhorse Clayton Richard would take a great deal of weight off of the young pitchers who are still getting their feet wet or who will be debuting in 2019. Joey Lucchesi was impressive as a rookie, posting a 4.08 ERA, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 26 starts. After a rough stretch to begin his MLB career, Eric Lauer had a 3.16 ERA over his last 16 starts. That lefty duo should have a leg up on the competition, while Robbie Erlin, Bryan Mitchell, Jacob Nix and Luis Perdomo are among the arms who could compete for one of the last rotation spots. Brett Kennedy, Walker Lockett and Colin Rea will also be in the mix if they’re still on the 40-man roster when Spring Training begins.

Mitchell pitched so poorly in 2018 that he was demoted to the bullpen after seven starts before spending three months on the disabled list. He probably saved his roster spot in September with a 2.19 ERA in four starts, including 8.2 shutout innings in his final appearance. That type of performance was likely closer to what Preller had in mind when he took on Chase Headley’s $13MM salary in order to acquire Mitchell from the Yankees last offseason. It’s unlikely that Preller would want to give up on him so soon after making such a big investment.

A wildcard for the rotation will be Matt Strahm, who now has two very good seasons under his belt as a relief pitcher. With the growing importance of the multi-inning setup man role, the 27-year-old might have already found his niche. But it would be worth stretching him out this spring and giving him a decent chance to prove that he can be an effective starting pitcher.

The next wave of prospects, while unlikely to make an impact in April or May, could make things interesting at some point during the season. After sitting out the 2017 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack returned to health and quickly proved to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He only has seven Double-A starts under his belt, but he’s not that far away. In 177.2 career innings in the Minors, the 22-year-old has a 1.82 ERA with an unfathomable 20 walks and 230 strikeouts. Logan Allen, the Texas League Pitcher of the Year, and former 1st Round pick Cal Quantrill should also reach San Diego in 2019. They won’t be the only potential reinforcements during the season. Dinelson Lamet, one of the few bright spots from the 2017 season, is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be back in the second half.

While there are several free agent starting pitchers who could help in the short-term, including former Padres Trevor Cahill and Tyson Ross, and a few others who could make sense on a multi-year deal — Gio Gonzalez, for instance — the expectation is that the Padres will set their sights very high in their pursuit of a frontline starter who can anchor their rotation for several years. Noah Syndergaard would be quite a catch, but he’s also the kind of superstar acquisition that would take multiple elite prospects to get (if the Mets are even interested in that kind of package). Would giving up Paddack, Tatis and more in a deal for three years of Syndergaard be worth it? With how often pitchers get hurt, that could turn out to be a disaster. Corey Kluber, a 4th Round pick of the Padres back in 2007, and Danny Duffy could also be on their wish list. A Zack Greinke acquisition wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospect talent if there were willing to take on a big chunk of the $95.5MM that he’s still owed through 2021.

There are also quite a few pitchers with two years of control who might be had via trade, including Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton and a rebound candidate in Julio Teheran. Preller would surely be somewhat more hesitant to give big pieces for that length of control, though of course less years also means a lower price tag (though each of these hurlers also earns at a manageable rate of pay). A pitcher of that ilk could help carry the team until another crop of pitching prospects — Michel Baez, Anderson Espinoza, MacKenzie Gore and Adrian Morejon are a big reason why their farm system is so widely-respected — is ready to step in.

Regardless of how much they can upgrade their rotation, they can always opt to lean a bit more on their bullpen if necessary. Teams like the A’s and Brewers proved in 2018 that you don’t need starting pitchers who can consistently work deep into games if the bullpen can consistently pick up the slack. It’s no surprise that the Padres’ bullpen was very good in 2018. Despite having ten sub-.500 seasons since the move to Petco Park in 2004, they’ve never cracked the 100-loss barrier. And that’s mostly due to a solid bullpen that keeps things from going completely off of the rails. Even without Brad Hand, who was traded to Cleveland in July, they are still in decent shape with closer Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Strahm (if he isn’t in the rotation), and a long list of hard-throwing pitchers with late-inning potential.

Strahm isn’t as dominant as Brewers’ bullpen star Josh Hader, but the left-hander proved that he can be very good in a similar high-leverage, multi-inning role. Jose Castillo and Robert Stock both passed their rookie auditions with flying colors, as did Trey Wingenter, though in a much smaller sample size. Stock and Wingenter each hit 100 MPH on multiple occasions and they aren’t the the only Padres’ pitchers who can bring that kind of heat. Former Rule 5 pick Miguel Diaz, 19-year-old Andres Munoz and Gerardo Reyes, all capable of hitting triple digits, could spend time in the Majors during the upcoming season.

There appears to be plenty of good relief options, but they’ve had so much success resurrecting careers that it would be a surprise if they didn’t add at least one veteran bounce-back candidate with late-inning experience. Former Nationals closer Drew Storen, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, is one of several relievers who will be looking for a chance to rebuild value in a pitcher-friendly atmosphere.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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It’s rare that a 100-win season can feel like a let-down, but when one’s chief division rival wins 108 games and captures a World Series title, the sentiment is more understandable. That’s the situation in which the Yankees find themselves, and they’ll likely act aggressively in an effort to close that gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Yankees depth chart | New York Yankees payroll outlook]

Last offseason, much was made of the efforts by the Yankees (and several other big-market organizations) to dip below the $197MM luxury tax barrier (which rises to $206MM for the upcoming season). With mega-stars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado looming on the horizon, there was a belief in many instances that teams were preparing to make a run at one or both 26-year-old MVP-caliber talents. That may not have genuinely been true of all teams that endeavored to reset their tax penalty, but it does seem that there was some truth to that belief as pertains to the Yankees. They’ve already been connected to both and likely will continue to be until the pair has signed (be it in the Bronx or elsewhere).

Harper is a clumsier fit for the Yankees, who already are set to deploy an outfield mix including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and, if he’s healthy and still with the organization, Jacoby Ellsbury. Long-lauded prospect Clint Frazier, too, remains a consideration after an injury-marred 2018 campaign. Given that mix of outfielders, there’s no clear “need” for Harper, though as is always the case with this type of player, there will be multiple teams without an immediately clear “need” that are in the mix. In fact, that same perception applied to an extent last year when the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins.

If the Yankees were to embark on a serious pursuit of Harper, there’d be multiple avenues to making the arrangement work. Harper could rotate through the corner outfield/DH spots with Stanton and Judge, with each seeing occasional time at DH in order to best remain healthy and fresh throughout the year. Agent Scott Boras has already pitched the idea that Harper could be a quality option at first base, though it doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees (or any other club) would simply plug him in as the everyday option there; perhaps he could get an occasional start at the position against tough righties to spell Luke Voit. The specifics behind a theoretical Harper-to-Yankees scenario are probably not all that worth dwelling on, as they seem likely to remain just that — theoretical. The fit is a bit messy, and while the Yankees won’t be entirely ruled out so long as he’s a free agent, they’re also unlikely to be portrayed as a significant favorite.

That’s less the case for Machado, whose fit in the Bronx became even clearer with the revelation that Didi Gregorius would require Tommy John surgery that’ll keep him out for much of the 2019 season. Depending on when medical experts project Gregorius to be able to return, it’s even possible that he’ll be non-tendered or signed to a different contract that lessens the burden of next season’s projected $12.4MM salary. His future is likely being debated among Yankees officials extensively, and without any specific insight into his exact recovery timeline, it’s tough to forecast exactly how (or if) he factors into the organizational plans. Gregorius is, after all, slated to become a free agent next winter.

Regardless of the return date for Gregorius, his injury opens a clear spot to play Machado at shortstop for the first few months of the 2019 season — and possibly beyond. Machado would give the Yankees a middle-of-the-order presence at a premium position, and while signing him would all but assure a return to luxury tax territory, the Yankees would be in the lowest penalty bracket thanks to last year’s financial machinations.

Concerns regarding Machado’s makeup abound following his October comments about his habitual lack of hustle and his likely deliberate clipping of Jesus Aguilar’s foot on a play at first base in the NLCS. Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has already declared that such antics “ain’t going to sell where we play baseball,” and emphasized the importance of the organization having a heart-to-heart discussion with Machado regarding his attitude. To be fair to Machado, while his “Johnny Hustle” and “not my cup of tea” comments reflect poorly, the latter half of his sentiments — the ones in which he said his lack of hustle “looks terrible” and is something he’s worked to change — have been largely ignored in favor of the more sordid portion of his interview. He clearly should have taken a more apologetic tone in the first place, but he’ll surely point to the second half of his comments when meeting with teams in an effort to curb the sting of his jarring comments. As for his actions against Aguilar, it’s unclear exactly how he could justify that behavior.

Looking strictly at the on-field fit, adding Machado would create some problems for the Yankees — at least on the defensive side of the equation. For all of rookie third baseman Miguel Andujar’s accolades at the plate, he rated as the worst defensive third baseman in the Majors this past season by measure of Defensive Runs Saved (-25), Ultimate Zone Rating (-16.0) and Revised Zone Rating (.634). Machado’s glovework at shortstop also checked in well below average, and while he made some improvements as the season wore on, the defensive pairing of Andujar and Machado on the left side of the infield would be lacking.

That dovetails, to an extent, with the Yankees’ need for rotation improvements. Andujar’s bat makes him a fan favorite in the Bronx, but there’s been plenty of speculation that he could also be used as a trade chip in order to acquire some rotation help. Machado could slide over to third base in that instance, with Gleyber Torres assuming his natural position at shortstop. That’d free the Yankees to peruse a deep slate of options at second base, where free-agent options would include Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu and Jed Lowrie, among others.

Including Andujar in a trade for rotation help is far from a given and is but one of many possibilities that Cashman and his staff figure to explore when looking to add to a group that is still unsettled even after re-signing CC Sabathia almost immediately after free agency began. Trade possibilities will be plentiful, with James Paxton, Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and even Indians stars Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer seeing their names surface in early offseason rumors. Free agency will have its options, too; Patrick Corbin heads up the free-agent market and has been connected to the Yankees for the better part of a season. Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Nathan Eovaldi are among the next tier of names that could be considered.

Of course, the Yankees have a trade candidate of their own on the roster at present. Sonny Gray’s time in Yankee pinstripes is all but finished, as Cashman as taken the somewhat uncommon approach of publicly declaring that a change of scenery is likely best for Gray. At least five clubs already have interest in Gray, who was generally excellent away from Yankee Stadium in 2018, so the Yankees should find a trade partner — perhaps even one willing to send something of modest 2019 value in return.

However things shake out with Gray, the Yankees seem likely to add multiple starting options this winter. Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and Sabathia are currently penciled into the rotation, and while fans are anxiously anticipating the day when Justus Sheffield receives an earnest look as a starter, the team would be better served if Sheffield were able to be eased into the mix rather than thrown into the fire and counted on as a contributor from day one. Beyond Sheffield, names like Jonathan Loaisiga, Domingo German and Chance Adams can be viewed as depth options or possible bullpen pieces, depending on organizational preference.

On the subject of the bullpen, the Yankees already have an imposing group of relievers that could withstand the losses of both David Robertson and Zach Britton. Currently, the relief corps is anchored by Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green. Jonathan Holder made strong strides in 2018, as well, while Tommy Kahnle remains with the club as a high-upside option coming off a disastrous 2018 campaign. That’s a nice foundation to a strong ’pen, but there’s clearly room for the Yankees to add to the mix — with a possible emphasis on looking at options who throw from the left side. A reunion with either Robertson or Britton would certainly make sense, but there should be quality options at more affordable rates in free agency. The trade market, too, will feature myriad options as it does every offseason (as explored in MLBTR’s Market Snapshots for righty and lefty relievers).

As far as the Yankees’ lineup is concerned, there’s arguably only a true need for one significant upgrade — be it at shortstop to replace Gregorius for half the season or at second base in the event that Torres slides over to short in Sir Didi’s absence. Beyond the bevy of corner outfield options noted above, Aaron Hicks delivered a terrific all-around season in center and should be counted on as the primary option there. Voit’s Herculean showing in September may have earned him a legitimate look at first base, leaving Greg Bird behind as a leapfrogged depth option. Perhaps relying on a pair of players who are still largely unproven would be leaving too much to chance for the Yankees, however. If that’s the case, then there’s no reason they couldn’t make a legitimate run at perennial NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, for whom the D-backs are reportedly open to exploring trades. Goldschmidt is only a season away from reaching free agency, but would be a massive addition to the lineup and the rental scenario has its advantages as well. (He wouldn’t tie the organization’s hands in the long run and the club could anticipate recouping draft compensation through the qualifying offer system at season’s end.)

Gary Sanchez struggled through a miserable season at the plate, but he’s since undergone left shoulder surgery to address an issue that could certainly have impacted his swing. He’s expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. I’d argue that the Yankees could be well-served to add a backup option with more offensive upside than Romine — particularly with Sanchez now recovering from surgery — but Cashman suggested last season that non-tendering Romine was never really a consideration. Romine, to his credit, showed more power than ever in 2018 and seemed to take a legitimate step forward with the bat — all while delivering solid defensive contributions.

Perhaps for the Yankees, then, the rest of the bench will be the primary area of focus once the middle-infield situation is sorted. Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes and recent waiver claim Hanser Alberto are among the top options for a utility infield role, but none brings much in the way of offense to the table. There’s arguably no great need for a player of Marwin Gonzalez’s caliber, but there’s also little denying that he’d strengthen the bench and give the Yankees the type of versatility that teams increasingly covet. While he’ll be substantially move expensive than Neil Walker was last winter, Gonzalez would fill the role Walker occupied much more capably for years to come. In theory, he could even be the Yankees’ primary infield addition if Machado lands elsewhere, as he’d be more than capable of starting at second base while Gregorius mends.

That’s likely too great a focus on one individual option, however — particularly one who’d fit on virtually any team in the league. Any of Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera or Josh Harrison could be fits in a semi-regular role before shifting to a utility capacity when the Yankees are at full strength. If the organizational preference is to simply find a strong defender to replace Gregorius in the early going, either Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis could fit that bill before moving into a utility role later on, though neither brings much offensive excitement to the table.

Generally speaking, the Yankees have the ability to spend at levels that far outpace their financial behavior in recent offseasons. New York has $156MM on the books in 2019 (including arbitration projections and pre-arb players) and would see that number dip to $147MM if and when Gray is traded. That’s a relative pittance for a club that has opened the season with a $200MM+ payroll eight times dating back to the 2008 season. And, taking a long-term look, the Yankees have just two contracts on the books as soon as 2021 — those of Stanton and Chapman, either of whom could technically opt out of their contracts before that point.

Viewed through that lens, the Yankees have the resources to be as bold as they like this offseason. The most straightforward approach could include something like signing Machado and Corbin while also trading for Paxton, and they’d have the financial means to not only do so with ease but to do so with the knowledge that such an aggressive slate of moves could come with just a single year of luxury tax penalties. That’s but one example of the manner in which the Yankees could operate this winter — and, likely, one that is too simplistic — but serves to underscore one bottom-line point: if they wish to do so, the Yankees are better-positioned than at any point in the past half decade to emulate the “Evil Empire” era with a hyper-aggressive series of offseason expenditures.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom

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Over the next couple weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.

But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.

All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.

Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.

The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!

Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.

By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.

There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.

Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.

Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.

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