Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins
The Twins spent more money on free agency this offseason than they ever have in the past, but they received a devastating blow by losing a top prospect for the season as well.
Major League Signings
- Ricky Nolasco, RHP: Four years, $49MM with club/vesting option for 2018.
- Phil Hughes, RHP: Three years, $24MM.
- Mike Pelfrey, RHP: Two years, $11MM.
- Kurt Suzuki, C: One year, $2.75MM
- Total Spend: $86.75MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jason Kubel ($2MM base salary if he makes the club), Matt Guerrier, Jason Bartlett, Brandon Waring, Chris Rahl
Extensions
- None
Trades and Claims
- Acquired LHP Sean Gilmartin from the Braves in exchange for C/OF Ryan Doumit.
- Acquired LHP Kris Johnson from the Pirates in exchange for RHP Duke Welker.
- Claimed LHP Brooks Raley off waivers from the Cubs.
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
Manager Ron Gardenhire's job security has rarely been in question since he took over the team in the early 2000s, but that was the case — at least among media members — this offseason prior to his signing of a two-year extension. General manager Terry Ryan said there was never any real doubt in his mind that Gardenhire would be back, and while some can speculate that the veteran skipper's connection with players has diminished in recent years, it's impossible to pin the team's struggles on his head. Minnesota has experienced a lack of quality big league talent on the Major League roster for the past few years, and it's shown up with three straight seasons at or near the bottom of the AL Central.
The primary weakness has been pitching, and Ryan and his staff set out to address that issue in a manner never before seen by Twins fans. Owner Jim Pohlad blasted the club's on-field performance in September, calling the product "embarrassing" and plainly stating that he had no problem issuing franchise-record contracts to pitchers in free agency.
While the names the Twins brought in — Ricky Nolasco (pictured), Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey — may not be the flashiest that were on the market, the trio should represent an improvement upon last year's group. While Pelfrey, of course, was a part of that woeful rotation, he's also two full years removed from Tommy John surgery.
However, though Pelfrey saw his average velocity increase over the course of the season, and stats such as FIP and xFIP show that he experienced some poor luck with his 5.19 ERA, I do have to wonder how great an upgrade he'd be over internal options. His addition could push Kyle Gibson to Triple-A in favor of one of Minnesota's three out-of-options starters — Vance Worley, Scott Diamond or Sam Deduno — making the decision to re-sign Pelfrey a questionable one. Could Gibson and Deduno or a healthy Worley have been just as effective as Pelfrey and whoever wins the fifth starter role? It's a definite possibility, but depth is something Minnesota has lacked, and the average annual value of Pelfrey's deal is hardly difficult to justify in terms of performance (Fangraphs' Dave Cameron noted that this offseason, one win on the free agent market is valued right around $6MM).
Minnesota lured in Hughes by gambling on his age with an unexpected three-year deal. Always one to post better numbers on the road, the Twins are hoping a move to a bigger ballpark (really, a division full of bigger ballparks) will aid his overall production. Hughes is still just 27 years of age, so while a $24MM guarantee was surprising based on his recent history, the $8MM annual value will look reasonable if he can provide league-average innings and look like a bargain if he can provide anything more. On the other hand, should his struggles continue, it will be easy to point to the deal as an unnecessary gamble.
Some depth was added via trade as well, as the Twins pulled in former first-rounder Gilmartin in exchange for one year of Doumit. Gilmartin battled injuries in 2013 and was largely ineffective as a result, but he was solid in 2012. Even though some feel he was a reach in the 2011 first round, he could be a back-end starter at some point, which would be a nice return for one year of the defensively challeneged Doumit.
Ryan and his staff brought in a number of former Twins on minor league deals, but if things had gone their way, they could've had a fourth former Twin on a Major League deal that would have been their second-largest of the offseason. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported last month that the Twins made Matt Garza a three-year, $42MM offer with a vesting $14MM option at one point this offseason. That $14MM annual value certainly trumps Garza's $12.5MM AAV with Milwaukee, but Garza elected for the fourth guaranteed year and a complex option that could result in him earning as much as $67MM.
The Twins also chased a pair of Santanas — former ace Johan Santana and former AL Central division rival Ervin Santana. Minnesota wasn't willing to top Baltimore's rich $3MM base salary on the minor league deal for Johan, and though they made a late three-year, $30-33MM offer to Ervin, his preference was for a one-year deal, which he got earlier this morning with the Braves. The Twins weren't keen on forfeiting a draft pick for a one-year upgrade in what isn't likely to be a contending season.
Joe Mauer's move to first base opened a need at catcher that assistant GM Rob Antony told Berardino last week they hoped would be filled by A.J. Pierzynski. He signed with the Red Sox, however, causing the Twins to turn their attention to the man he replaced — Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty ultimately signed with his hometown Marlins, whose interest put the Twins into an uphill battle for the 28-year-old's services.
The Twins once again moved on, and they were able to reel in their next target in veteran Kurt Suzuki. He should help to take some pressure off impressive prospect Josmil Pinto. The latter's glove has drawn question marks, but his robust production from Double-A to Triple-A to his September call-up in 2013 suggest he's not far from forcing his way into everyday at-bats.
Questions Remaining
The Twins missed on Garza and Santana but still added a trio of free-agent pitchers to help round out a rotation that finished dead last in the Majors with a 5.26 ERA last year. Nolasco, Hughes and a healthier Pelfrey should all be able to help lower that mark, but the rotation still looks to be below average. In 2013, the Cubs finished 15th in the Majors in rotation ERA with a 3.97 mark, and the league average among starting pitchers was a 4.01 ERA. Can Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Kevin Correia and one of the team's internal options top those numbers? If everything breaks right, perhaps, but even then it wouldn't be by much. Perhaps Alex Meyer, a consensus Top 40 prospect, can force the Twins to clear room for him by making a trade this summer. Pelfrey and Kevin Correia — a free agent at season's end — both strike me as possible trade candidates if pitching well.
The Twins infield is rife with question marks as well. Trevor Plouffe was thought to be a placeholder for top prospect Miguel Sano this season, but the Twins received crushing news in learning that Sano, the minor leagues' premier slugger, would miss the 2014 campaign to undergo Tommy John surgery. Now the defensively challenged Plouffe, whose power dramatically dropped from 2012 (.220 ISO) to 2013 (.138 ISO), will likely see the lion's share of playing time.
Pedro Florimon's strong glove will once again man shortstop, but he provides little to no offense. Stephen Drew seemed to make sense for the Twins on a multi-year deal, but perhaps they feel that Florimon can provide at least one to two wins per year with his glove, making Drew too expensive for the upgrade he would provide.
Brian Dozier's power, speed and defense from second base outweighed his so-so on-base skills in 2013; can he continue to improve in 2014? Even Mauer's future production is no guarantee, as ESPN's Jayson Stark wrote while examining the shockingly low number of players to transition away from catcher and enjoy lengthy careers at a new position.
Josh Willingham will need to prove his knee is healthy and could be moved with a big first half. The Twins are hopeful that two outfield spots will be manned by Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia in the long-term; however, both former Top 50 prospects (Hicks in particular) will need to show improvement from their 2013 production to cement themselves as regulars going forward. Of course, Byron Buxton, the crown jewel of Minnesota's minor league system and consensus No. 1 overall prospect, is expected to take the reins in center field eventually. That seems unlikely in 2014, as he's yet to even play a game at Double-A.
Deal of Note
Because Minnesota lacked the necessary resources to spend on free agents for much of the 90s and 2000s, Nolasco's deal represents a franchise-record investment, and in fact more than doubles the previous record (Josh Willingham's three-year, $21MM deal). In Nolasco, the Twins add a durable innings eater with some upside. Nolasco's ERA has historically underperformed his FIP and xFIP due to an inability to strand runners at a league-average rate. If the Twins can improve his performance with runners on base, he could give them some seasons with an ERA closer to his 2013 mark than his career mark.
However, the deal now looks questionable in light of the fact that both Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez signed four-year deals worth just $1MM more in guaranteed money. Conventional wisdom says that both Garza and Jimenez have considerably more upside (though they also come with risk) and could have made a bigger impact on a Twins rotation that is starved for quality innings.
While that's true, this offseason was also unique in the way the pitching market played out. Masahiro Tanaka's seemingly ceaseless saga put much of the pitching market on hold and likely played a part on Garza, Jimenez and Ervin Santana all being available in late February. The Twins made an effort to wait out the starting pitching market in 2012-13 and had to settle for modest deals for Correia and Pelfrey. Ryan at one point said that he couldn't give his money away if the targets weren't willing to take it.
As such, Minnesota likely felt a need to be more aggressive on the free agent market this year and paid market value early on for Nolasco, then made the aggressive decision to add Hughes as well. Had they known the market would have collapsed the way it did and that Ervin Santana would be available in mid-March, perhaps they'd have passed on one of the three pitchers they did sign in order to secure his services instead.
Overview
The Twins possesses the game's third-best farm system, according to Baseball America (though Sano's injury is a clear hit), and those minor leaguers are the key to the club's future. This offseason's additions will help to bridge gaps and stop the bleeding, but they're not likely to bring the Twins back to prominence in the American League Central division. The coming year will be critical for names like Arcia, Hicks, Pinto and Gibson as they look to prove that themselves capable of being regular Major Leaguers.
If that can happen, the Twins' 2015 outlook would be brighter. A rotation featuring Meyer, Nolasco, Gibson and Hughes would be an improvement (though not elite), as would an eventual outfield of Arcia, Buxton and Hicks with Mauer and Sano at the infield corners. That sounds promising on paper, but a lot has to go right for such a scenario to become reality. And while it gives Twins fans plenty to dream on for years to come, it does little to assuage the unpleasant likelihood that another difficult season is on the horizon in 2014.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox made an early splash by signing a powerful 27-year-old Cuban first baseman, acquired a new center fielder, swapped their closer for a third base prospect, and tinkered with small-scale free agent signings.
Major League Signings
- Jose Abreu, 1B: six years, $68MM (may opt into arbitration once eligible)
- Scott Downs, RP: one year, $4MM (includes $4.25MM club option for 2015 with $250K buyout)
- Matt Lindstrom, RP: one year, $4MM (club option exercised)
- Ronald Belisario, RP: one year, $3MM (can be controlled through 2016 as arbitration eligible player)
- Paul Konerko, 1B/DH: one year, $2.5MM ($1MM deferred until 2021)
- Felipe Paulino, SP: one year, $1.75MM ($4MM club option for 2015 with a $250K buyout)
- Mitchell Boggs, RP: one year, $1.1MM (can be controlled through 2015 as arbitration eligible player)
- Total spend: $84.35MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Dylan Axelrod, David Purcey, Brian Omogrosso, Zach Putnam, Mauricio Robles, Hector Gimenez, Alex Liddi, Eric Patterson
Trades and Claims
- Acquired 1B Jackson Laumann from Braves for cash considerations
- Acquired OF Adam Eaton from Diamondbacks, gave up P Hector Santiago and OF Brandon Jacobs
- Acquired 3B Matt Davidson from Diamondbacks for RP Addison Reed
- Claimed C Adrian Nieto from Nationals in Rule 5 draft
- Claimed SP Eric Surkamp from Giants
- Claimed RP Maikel Cleto from Royals
- Acquired a player to be named later or cash considerations from Athletics for IF Jake Elmore
- Acquired cash considerations from Braves for SP Zach Stewart
Notable Losses
- Hector Santiago, Brandon Jacobs, Addison Reed, Gavin Floyd, Santos Rodriguez, Brent Morel
Needs Addressed
White Sox GM Rick Hahn explained his plan to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune in late October: "Obviously getting better quickly is the goal, but the final determining factor is whether it's going to make us better for an extended period of time. I'm not going to keep churning this thing every two years with short-term fixes. Eventually you have to pay the piper for that and we want to set up something that's sustainable over an extended period." Hahn also made it clear in various offseason interviews that he felt good about the team's pitching depth and aimed to add position players.
It's no surprise, then, that the key moves of Hahn's offseason involved acquiring three position players. Jose Abreu (pictured), Adam Eaton, and Matt Davidson are all in their 20s, with Abreu the oldest at 27. Abreu is controlled through 2019, Eaton through '18, and Davidson through '19 or later. The newly-acquired trio is Major League ready or close to it, as is summer acquisition Avisail Garcia.
As I explained shortly before the October signing, Abreu checks all the boxes for the White Sox: long-term value, a contract that isn't monstrous by typical free agent standards, and no loss of a draft pick to sign him. Five teams offered $60MM+ for the Cuban slugger, but the White Sox prevailed with a six-year, $68MM deal that stands as the largest ever for an international free agent and the largest in team history. The White Sox hope Abreu can provide 30+ home runs annually as their first baseman for the next six years.
The Eaton trade was struck during baseball's Winter Meetings, in a collaboration with the Diamondbacks and Angels. The main piece the Sox had to surrender was 26-year-old southpaw Hector Santiago, who compiled a 3.51 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 1.10 HR/9 in 130 2/3 innings as a starter in 2013 and remains under team control through 2017. With Erik Johnson and Andre Rienzo coming on, the White Sox had the depth to spare Santiago, who still has to figure out command and home run issues.
Eaton, often described as a "dirtbag" type of ballplayer, comes with questions of his own. The former 19th round draft pick exceeded expectations in the minor leagues, earning a cup of coffee with Arizona in 2012 and becoming a popular Rookie of the Year candidate for 2013. However, that spring he sprained the UCL in his left elbow, and didn't return to the big leagues until July. Eaton is 25 with only one healthy month in the Majors to his name. The White Sox are gambling that he can be the scrappy consistent on-base threat with good defense that he appeared to be one year ago.
The third major pickup was Davidson, who was also acquired from Arizona. The Sox snagged Davidson straight-up for closer Addison Reed, a 25-year-old with four years of team control remaining. As MLBTR's Jeff Todd noted in his D'Backs Offseason In Review, Reed is not without his flaws, and the cost of saves in arbitration may cut down his years of team control. Davidson, 23 this month, hit .280/.350/.481 with 17 home runs in 500 Triple-A plate appearances and picked up 87 late-season plate appearances with the big club. Ranked 88th among all prospects by ESPN's Keith Law, Davidson "should be an above-average regular at third base given a season or two there to continue to progress." If that is the eventual outcome, the White Sox did very well in acquiring Davidson for perhaps three years of a good (and increasingly expensive) closer.
The White Sox traded Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton during the season and Reed in the offseason, so the bullpen demanded fresh arms. Hahn kept the commitments relatively light, exercising Lindstrom's option, and signing Belisario, Downs, and Boggs for a total of $12.1MM. Belisario and Boggs were non-tendered by their previous teams in December, and the Sox can control them beyond 2014 if it makes sense.
Belisario and Boggs will be projects for renowned pitching coach Don Cooper, as will scrap heap rotation hopeful Felipe Paulino. The 30-year-old last had significant time in the Majors in 2011, undergoing Tommy John surgery in July 2012 and shoulder surgery in September 2013. When he was right, Paulino whiffed about a batter per inning and consistently worked at 95 miles per hour, and the White Sox could have the bargain of the offseason if they can get 25+ starts out of him. The White Sox did at least look into a bigger addition for the rotation, Japanese righty Masahiro Tanaka. After an exploratory meeting with the pitcher in January, the Sox made an offer that one GM guessed was around $100MM. It doesn't seem that the Sox came close to signing Tanaka. As with their crosstown rivals, potentially paying him $108MM over the next four years did not make sense, even if his ability and youth were worth a bid.
In a process that dragged into December, White Sox all-time great Paul Konerko signed on for one more year at a meager $2.5MM. It was a sentimental signing of a limited player who fits poorly onto the team's roster. As explained by Jim Margalus of South Side Sox in an excellent reflection on the move, "Even the most ardent Konerko supporters acknowledge that he's significantly compromising the roster, but they're writing it off as a fair sacrifice because of the alleged effect he has on others." The signing reminds me of the Mariners bringing Ken Griffey Jr. back for the 2010 season, which didn't end well.
On the coaching front, the White Sox added hitting coach Todd Steverson in October, and extended manager Robin Ventura in January to avoid him entering 2014 in lame-duck status.
Questions Remaining
Despite the positive vibes from Rick Hahn's offseason, the White Sox still have a below-average collection of 25-and-under players and a farm system that Baseball America ranks 24th and Keith Law ranks 27th in the game. The 2014 draft will continue pushing things in the right direction, as the Sox have the third overall pick and a bonus pool near $10MM. Still, Hahn and company want to get back to contention quickly, and the team needs a good amount of work in the short-term.
The Sox never did address their catching situation this offseason, instead deciding to give the Tyler Flowers/Josh Phegley tandem another shot. I've heard they had significant interest in free agent Jarrod Saltalamacchia, particularly if he could have been had on a two-year deal, but Salty wound up with the Marlins on a three-year pact. The Sox picked up Adrian Nieto in the Rule 5 draft, but keeping a Double-A type backstop on the Major League roster all season would be challenging.
The acquisition of Eaton seemingly pushed Alejandro De Aza into a fourth outfielder role, for which he may be best suited anyway. With a $4.25MM salary, De Aza might have more value to another team, and it's likely the Sox will continue to explore trades. Then there's 25-year-old Dayan Viciedo, who hit 25 home runs in 2012 but slumped last year. He's controlled through 2017 and could still be a long-term piece, but I imagine the Sox will be open-minded to trade proposals.
Chicago's middle infield tandem of Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez has come up in trade rumors in the last year. The disappointing Beckham has two years of team control remaining, while Ramirez is signed through 2015 with a club option for '16. Ramirez is guaranteed $20.5MM over the next two years, his age 32-33 seasons. His trade value could be limited by the continued availability of free agent shortstop Stephen Drew. Both Beckham and Ramirez figure to frequent the pages of MLBTR this summer.
The White Sox have uncertainty at the back of their bullpen after the Reed trade, with Nate Jones the current favorite to close games in 2014. The franchise hasn't put together a particularly strong bullpen since their 2005 World Championship season.
Deal of Note
If an MLB team wants to throw a large, unrestricted sum of money at a player in his mid-20s, players coming over from Cuba and Japan are basically the only options. The White Sox took advantage of the opportunity by signing Abreu. At $68MM, his contract defied my expectations by a good 25%, but it still leaves room for upside. Accounting for the cost of a draft pick, the Mets paid a similar amount for Curtis Granderson's age 33-36 seasons, a deal that strikes me as mostly downside risk. If Abreu can provide the White Sox with 25+ home runs per year, a .340 OBP, and average defense, he'll easily be worth $11.3MM per year compared to continually rising market prices. And certainly, there's some chance of Abreu's power translating to a few 35-40 home run seasons in the bigs.
It should be noted that given the standard clause allowing Abreu to opt for arbitration once eligible, he might end up being paid more than $68MM over the next six years. In particular, given good production he'll prefer arbitration over the sixth year of the contract, and possibly even the fifth. If he's good enough to justify that, it will be worth the extra money for Chicago.
Overview
This is rebuilding, White Sox style. Like any team trying to improve its young talent base, they've recently taken a few steps back in the name of the greater good. But unlike the Cubs or Mets, the White Sox aren't on a four or five-year plan. Hahn has been acquiring Major League ready talent, and while the White Sox are a long shot for 2014, don't count them out for '15.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Out Of Options Players: NL East
The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so. I've included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources. Next, we'll take a look at the NL East.
Braves: Cory Gearrin, David Carpenter, Ramiro Pena, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro
Carpenter is a lock for a bullpen spot. On Friday, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said of Varvaro, "Who knows? It's so early. If we had to break Spring Training today or tomorrow to start the season, I'd count on him. He'd be one of the guys in the bullpen," talking to MLB.com's Spencer Fordin. Gearrin is among a host of pitchers competing for two other spots in the pen; he told Mark Wiedmer of the Chattanooga Times Free Press in February his shoulder was 100% after being shut down for the final two months of the 2013 season.
Pena will serve as the Braves' primary utility infielder, and Schafer will be the fourth outfielder.
Marlins: Mike Dunn, Garrett Jones, Brian Bogusevic, Brad Hand, Jacob Turner
Beyond Steve Cishek, A.J. Ramos, and Dunn, the Marlins' bullpen picture is "extremely muddled," wrote Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald recently. As for the rotation, Turner looks like the team's fourth starter, with Hand, Tom Koehler, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Flynn in the mix for the last spot, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Spencer noted that Hand could land in the bullpen if he doesn't crack the rotation.
Jones was signed to be the team's primary first baseman. Bogusevic, acquired from the Cubs for Justin Ruggiano in the offseason, seems to have a leg up to become the team's fourth outfielder.
Mets: Eric Young Jr., Ruben Tejada, Carlos Torres
Young's spot on the team is secure. Tejada is the starting shortstop, though the Mets seem to be considering upgrades such as Stephen Drew or Nick Franklin. In the event they acquire someone, the Mets could entertain trading Tejada or just put him in a reserve role.
Torres is a lock for the Mets' bullpen, wrote Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com a week ago.
Nationals: Jose Lobaton, Jerry Blevins, Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler
Detwiler will be on the Nationals' pitching staff in some capacity, either as the fifth starter or a member of the bullpen. Lobaton, Blevins, and Clippard are secure.
Phillies: John Mayberry Jr., Kevin Frandsen, Brad Lincoln
Mayberry and Frandsen were given guaranteed arbitration contracts, noted Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer in February, giving them a leg up on bench jobs. Yesterday, Gelb wrote that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. "continues to dangle Mayberry this spring in trade talks." Mayberry is competing with Darin Ruf for a bench spot. A week ago, Chris Branch of The News Journal took a look at the Phillies' backup infield situation. Freddy Galvis is a near lock to make the team, with Frandsen battling Ronny Cedeno, Andres Blanco, Cesar Hernandez, and Reid Brignac for the one remaining spot.
Five days ago, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News termed Lincoln to be "likely a favorite" for a bullpen spot, because of his option situation as well as past big league success.
Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants
- Tim Hudson, RHP: Two years, $23MM.
- Javier Lopez, LHP: Three years, $13MM.
- Michael Morse, OF: One year, $6MM.
- Ryan Vogelsong, RHP: One year, $5MM. (Declined $6.5MM club option and paid $300K buyout.)
- Total Spend: $47MM
- Acquired LHP David Huff from the Yankees in exchange for cash considerations.
- Claimed LHP Jose De Paula from Padres.
- Hunter Pence, OF: Five years, $90MM. (Agreed to deal on Sept. 28, 2013.)
- Tim Lincecum, RHP: Two years, $35MM. (Agreed to deal on Oct. 22, 2013.)
- Joaquin Arias, INF: Two years, $2.6MM.
- Chad Gaudin, Francisco Peguero, Brett Pill (rights sold to KBO club), Andres Torres (club declined option), Barry Zito (club declined option)
Offseason In Review: New York Yankees
The Yankees heavily invested in the free agent market, yet the team still has some notable holes as it tries to celebrate Derek Jeter's final season by returning to the playoffs.
Major League Signings
- Masahiro Tanaka, RHP: Seven years, $155MM (Plus $20MM release fee).
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: Seven years, $153MM. $21MM vesting option for 2021.
- Brian McCann, C: Five years, $85MM. $15MM vesting option for 2019.
- Carlos Beltran, OF: Three years, $45MM.
- Matt Thornton, LHP: Two years, $7MM.
- Brendan Ryan, SS: Two years, $5MM. $2MM mutual option for 2016.
- Hiroki Kuroda, RHP: One year, $16MM.
- Derek Jeter, SS: One year, $12MM.
- Kelly Johnson, IF/OF: One year, $3MM.
- Brian Roberts, 2B: One year, $2MM.
- Total spend: $503MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Andrew Bailey ($1.975MM if he makes the roster, team option for 2015), Scott Sizemore, Robert Coello, Zelous Wheeler
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Kyle Haynes from the Pirates in exchange for C Chris Stewart
- Acquired cash considerations from the Giants in exchange for LHP David Huff
Extensions
- Brett Gardner, OF: Four years, $52MM. $12.5MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout.
Notable Losses
- Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez (162-game suspension), Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, Lyle Overbay, David Huff, Chris Stewart, Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, Jayson Nix
Needs Addressed
After missing the postseason for just the second time in 19 years, it wasn't a surprise that the Bronx Bombers went on an old-fashioned Yankees spending spree. Between signing new free agents, re-signing a few of their own free agents and extending Brett Gardner's contract, the Yankees spent over $555MM on player salaries this offseason. To put it in perspective, when Forbes Magazine released its annual team valuations a year ago, seven entire franchises weren't valued as worth $555MM. When the Yankees decide to spend, they don't take half measures.
The Yankees ended up with five — Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Masahiro Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda and Carlos Beltran — of the top 12 players on Tim Dierkes' list of the offseason's 50 best free agents and were known to be in contact with several other major names, from Shin-Soo Choo to Jhonny Peralta to several free agent pitchers and, of course, Robinson Cano. GM Brian Cashman worked quickly to identify the players he wanted, as the Yankees reached agreements with all of those players (save Tanaka) by the end of the Winter Meetings.
It's hard to argue with the results. McCann's presence instantly turns one of the league's worst catching situations into one of its best; Beltran's still-powerful bat is a fine replacement for the departed Curtis Granderson; Kuroda's return helped solidify the rotation; Ellsbury adds speed and defense to the Yankee outfield, plus his addition allows the club to shift Alfonso Soriano to a more regular DH role (with Beltran and Jeter also seeing some time at designated hitter) and Ichiro Suzuki's declining bat is now relegated to the bench.
The one signing that took a bit more time was Tanaka, as first the new posting rules between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball had to be established. Then, the Yankees had to outbid the Cubs, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Dodgers and Astros in order to land the 25-year-old right-hander with a seven-year, $155MM contract that ranks as the 18th-largest deal in baseball history. That contract (plus the $20MM posting fee the Yankees paid to the Rakuten Golden Eagles) represents a huge investment in a pitcher who has yet to appear in a Major League game, yet given Tanaka's impressive scouting reports and his status as the best starter on the market, he was seen as a must-have for a Yankee club that needed rotation help.
The one signing that New York didn't make, however, was the one that many thought was a foregone conclusion when the offseason began. The Yankees simply weren't prepared to offer Cano more than seven years (at $175MM), and thus Cano made his stunning move to the Mariners that left the Yankees with a big hole at second base. While the team is still looking for infield help, right now it looks like newly-signed veteran Brian Roberts will man the position with the re-signed Brendan Ryan and roster holdover Eduardo Nunez also in the mix.
Another notable non-move was choosing to forgo signing an experienced closer to replace Mariano Rivera, as David Robertson will get a clear shot at the ninth-inning job. Veteran setup man Matt Thornton was signed to add some left-handed experience to the young relief corps and Andrew Bailey was signed to a low-risk minor league deal to see if he can stay healthy and revive his career.
Maybe the biggest "need" for the Bombers this offseason was getting some of Alex Rodriguez's contract off their books, and the Yankees got their wish when A-Rod's 211-game suspension was only partially reduced to 162 games after his lengthy appeal. The suspension saved the Yankees around $22.13MM in payroll for 2014, though A-Rod's absence leaves the Yankees thin at the hot corner. Newcomer Kelly Johnson will get the lion's share of games at third, though since Johnson has only played 16 games as a third baseman (all last season in Tampa Bay) during his eight-year career. Minor league signing Scott Sizemore could be an under-the-radar boon at either third or second if he's able to stay healthy, as he's missed virtually all of the last two seasons recovering from two separate left ACL tears.
The Yankees settled a bit of long-term business by signing Gardner to a four-year, $52MM extension. Gardner would've been eligible for free agency following 2014 and he was the subject of a few trade rumors in the wake of the Ellsbury and Beltran signings, but now it seems he'll be wearing the pinstripes though at least the 2018 season. Such extensions are pretty rare for the Yankees, as the team usually doesn't explore new deals with players, managers or even front office staff until their current contracts are up. The Gardner deal could be a sign that even the Yankees are taking note of the rising costs of free agent contracts, and since Gardner was a player they liked and wanted to keep anyway, it made sense to extend him now and possibly get a bit of a discount if he has a big 2014 campaign.
Two major pieces of the Yankees' puzzle were put in place before the offseason even began. Manager Joe Girardi was re-signed to a four-year, $16MM extension that will keep him in the Bombers' dugout through the 2017 season, a move that broke the hearts of Cubs fans and rewarded a manager who arguably did his best work in 2013 by squeezing 85 wins out of an injury-riddled roster. Jeter was sure to pick up his player option for 2014 anyway but in early November, that $9.5MM option was shelved in favor of a one-year, $12MM contract that Hal Steinbrenner negotiated himself.
Jeter's new deal carried some extra luxury tax complications, which might've been an early sign that the Yankees were going to abandon their plan to stay under the $189MM payroll threshold. The Yankees had been positioning themselves to get under the $189MM mark for the last two years in order reset their mounting luxury tax payments but, as Steinbrenner and Cashman always claimed, that $189MM target would only be kept if the team could remain competitive. Since the Yankees don't abide by missing the postseason, they will head into 2014 with another $200MM+ payroll (hat tip to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info).
Questions Remaining
For all of the hundreds of millions the Yankees spent this winter, most of that money was spent to simply replace departing stars, and not necessarily to fix other problem areas. Beltran for Granderson is essentially a wash when Granderson is healthy, and while Tanaka is presumed to be an upgrade over Andy Pettitte, don't forget that the retired southpaw delivered 3.2 fWAR last season. While McCann and Ellsbury are big improvements on the Yankees' 2013 catchers and the Suzuki/Vernon Wells outfield platoon, those additions could be offset by the losses in the bullpen and at second base.
Cano's departure leaves the Yankees with one of the shakiest infield situations of any contending team. The hope is that Jeter and Mark Teixeira can stay healthy and regain some semblance of their former productivity, but that's a tall order for two players who combined for only 32 games last season. While Ryan or Nunez could spell Jeter at shortstop, the Yankees don't have anyone on the roster who can realistically replace Teixeira for a lengthy stretch if his wrist injuries continue to bother him. Roberts' health is also hardly a given considering his injury problems over the last few seasons.
The addition of a player like Stephen Drew could solve a lot of these infield questions. Drew could step in at shortstop if Jeter was hurt, and since he has expressed a willingness to move to second or third base, he would provide the Yankees with an stable everyday option at either spot. The Yankees did make Drew an offer early in the offseason but pulled it back to focus on other signings, while Drew passed up on the deal (believed to be for two or three years) since he felt he could find a longer-term deal. In hindsight, the Yankees missed out by not landing Peralta earlier in the winter, as they were simply outbid by the Cardinals.
C.C. Sabathia, Tanaka, Kuroda, Ivan Nova and one of Adam Warren, Michael Pineda or David Phelps will comprise New York's starting rotation. While there's at least a bit of uncertainly surrounding all of the candidates, Sabathia's status is the Yankees' biggest concern, as the 33-year-old is coming off the worst season of his Major League career. Sabathia has gotten into terrific shape and returned to his old offseason throwing program in an attempt to return to his old form, though if he continues to decline, it will be a huge blow to both the Yankees' playoff hopes and to their future payroll plans (given how Sabathia is still owed $76MM through 2016, plus $20MM more in 2017 if his option vests).
Nobody can replace Rivera, yet it's surprising to see that the Yankees didn't pick up one veteran arm to provide some closer for Robertson if he struggles. Bailey may not appear until after the All-Star break, while Thornton fits better as a setup man or even as a specialist against left-handed batters. Joel Hanrahan has been on the Yankees' radar, though he's coming off elbow surgery himself. Beyond Roberts, Thornton and Shawn Kelley, New York is going with a young bullpen that includes some promising arms (Preston Claiborne, former top prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos and the losers of the fifth starter competition) but no proven experience.
If I had to guess, the Yankees still have a few more moves up their sleeves before Opening Day. They added Wells and Lyle Overbay last March and I'd expect similar veteran additions to join the roster this spring to give the team some depth in the bullpen and especially around the infield, particularly at first.
Deal Of Note
Of all the Yankees' major signings, the McCann contract seems to have the fewest question marks, which is somewhat surprising considering New York is committing $85MM to a catcher through his age-34 season. A big-hitting catcher is hard to find, however, and the Yankees simply couldn't go through another year getting barely replacement-level production from behind the plate. Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, J.R. Murphy and Austin Romine combined for only 0.9 fWAR/0.1 rWAR over a combined 202 games last season — McCann delivered 2.7 fWAR/2.2 rWAR in 102 games. It's very possible that McCann improves on his performance, as he'll stay healthier by getting some DH days and his left-handed power swing is a great fit at Yankee Stadium. Signing McCann also kept an All-Star catcher away from two AL rivals in the Rangers and Red Sox, both of whom were interested in McCann's services.
McCann's presence also turns the Yankees' catching pool from a weakness into potential trade bait. Stewart was dealt to Pittsburgh and it's possible that at least one more of Cervelli, Murphy or Romine could be sent elsewhere for infield help. The Yankees could even trade top prospect Gary Sanchez if they wished to strike a bigger deal, though the rough plan seems to be to groom Sanchez as McCann's eventual replacement, with McCann shifting to DH in a few years' time.
Overview
It's often said that Jeter personifies the Yankees, and that may be especially true in 2014, though not in the way that either Jeter or the team hopes. A healthy Jeter can still perform at a league-best level, though it's anyone's guess as to whether he'll be able to stay off the DL and produce at his usual standard — the same could be said of the Yankees as a whole, as they'll need to rely on much better health from several key players return to contention.
An argument could be made that despite all the struggles and injuries last year, the Yankees still won 85 games, so they're not far away from getting back to the postseason. It's worth noting that Cashman doesn't buy that argument, as he saw his club's 2013 record as a fortunate overachievement and thus felt it necessary to spend big. With how much of that money went towards reloading instead of actually adding talent, however, it's possible the Yankees may have only bought themselves a "real" 85-win talent level (by Pythagorean record standards) and could still fall short in the tough AL East.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images
Out Of Options Players: AL East
The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so. I've included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources. Today, we'll take a look at the AL East.
Blue Jays: Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Perez, Esmil Rogers, Sergio Santos, Todd Redmond, Moises Sierra
Back on February 20th, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos spoke about beginning the season with an eight-man bullpen, as they did in 2013, partially because of the desire not to lose a player, according to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. Cecil, Santos, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, and Aaron Loup are the locks.
Perez has already been sent to minor league camp, with the Jays expected to buy some time by putting him on the DL to start the season. Dustin McGowan is under contract on a multiyear deal, and was not listed above because he has over seven years of big league service. Still, the Jays will have to find a spot if they wish to retain him, and they probably will. McGowan, Rogers, Redmond, and Jeffress are part of the fifth starter competition, as outlined by Rosie DiManno of the Toronto Star on Friday. In theory, all four could be retained: one in the rotation, the other three filling out the bullpen. That scenario would involve sending Neil Wagner and other solid pitchers to Triple-A, establishing strong depth but perhaps not putting the team's best 13 pitchers on the Opening Day roster. A trade would be another way to find some breathing room. The Jays are known to be in the mix for Ervin Santana, who would take a rotation spot and have a ripple effect on the above-named players.
Sierra seems to have a good shot at the team's last bench spot partially because of his lack of minor league options. It's another case where making the decision to retain the player might be less than ideal, as Sierra would have to be the team's fourth outfielder over the defensively superior Anthony Gose. Sierra would also platoon at DH with Adam Lind and could pitch in at first base, however.
Orioles: Edgmer Escalona, Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter, Troy Patton, Nolan Reimold, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Kelvin De La Cruz, David Lough, Brian Matusz, Steve Pearce, Francisco Peguero, Josh Stinson
The Orioles' list includes a staggering 13 players. Let's start with the team's rotation. We can project three members with certainty: Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Wei-Yin Chen. At this moment, Miguel Gonzalez and Bud Norris would grab the two remaining spots. Two of the above-named pitchers, Britton and Matusz, had been among those competing for the fifth starter job before Jimenez was signed. Further muddying the picture, as explained by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun today, is the pursuit of Ervin Santana. Additionally, Suk-min Yoon and Johan Santana will come into play later in the season.
Connolly notes that Norris or Gonzalez could move to the bullpen if necessary. Hunter, Darren O'Day, Ryan Webb, and Matusz seem to be locks for the pen. A 25-game amphetamine suspension for Patton takes him out of the picture for most of April. That leaves Escalona, De La Cruz, Britton, and Stinson as out of options pitchers competing for three likely spots, with Steve Johnson, Alfredo Aceves, T.J. McFarland, and Evan Meek also in the mix. You may recall the Orioles were loose with 40-man roster spots in the offseason, giving them to Escalona, De La Cruz, and Peguero despite scant big league experience. Retaining them now requires putting them on the 25-man roster. This situation seems to call for a trade or two.
As the backup center fielder, Lough is assured a spot on the roster. The Cruz signing takes away at-bats from Reimold, but he still seems likely to make the team. Peguero or Pearce could take the final roster spot, but only by beating out the other candidates in camp, such as Delmon Young, Xavier Paul, Julio Borbon, Quintin Berry, and Henry Urrutia. There seems a good chance Peguero or Pearce is exposed to waivers; perhaps both. Again, a minor trade could make sense in the coming weeks.
Rays: Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, Matt Joyce, Chris Archer, Josh Lueke, Brandon Guyer
Archer is a lock for the Rays' rotation, while Ramos is battling pitchers such as Erik Bedard, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Karns, and Alex Colome for the fifth starter job until Jeremy Hellickson's projected late May return. If he doesn't win the job, Ramos would go back to the Rays' bullpen.
McGee is a lock for a bullpen job, as are Grant Balfour, Heath Bell, and Joel Peralta. Juan Carlos Oviedo has yet to report to camp due to visa issues, but he's expected to take a spot as well. If Ramos doesn't win the rotation job, that leaves one potential opening for Lueke. Late last month, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times named Brad Boxberger, Brandon Gomes, and Mark Lowe as other candidates, choosing Lueke as the favorite given his option situation.
Joyce is a lock for a roster spot. If the Rays go with a traditional fifth outfielder, Guyer could snag the job, as Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune explained late last month. The team could also use Sean Rodriguez or Ben Zobrist as the fifth outfielder.
Red Sox: Mike Carp, Felix Doubront
Doubront is penciled into Boston's rotation. Carp has a bench spot locked down, though he did pop up in recent trade rumors.
Yankees: Francisco Cervelli, Ivan Nova
Nova is a key piece of the Yankees' rotation, while Cervelli is highly likely to break camp as the backup catcher.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- Jeff Todd analyzed free agent contracts signed by starting pitchers after having turned 31 years of age and opined it will be difficult for James Shields (who will be 33 in December) to break the five-year, $100MM threshold on the open market and is more likely to land a four-year, $75-80MM pact with a vesting/club option or even an opt-out clause included to sweeten the deal.
- Tim Dierkes examined the 40-man roster players who have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options (compiled through MLBTR's sources) in the NL Central, AL Central (with an assist from Steve Adams), and NL West.
- MLBTR kicked off the Offseason in Review series with Tim's look at the Cubs, Steve's assessment of the Brewers and Marlins, and Jeff's recap of the Diamondbacks.
- Prior to reports Ervin Santana is choosing between one-year deals from the Blue Jays and Orioles in the neighborhood of $14MM, Jeff asked MLBTR readers when will the right-hander sign and for what terms. A majority of you believe Santana will agree to a Kyle Lohse-like contract (53%) before Opening Day (68%).
- MLBTR learned the reported $24K salary the Rakuten Golden Eagles will pay Loek Van Mil is not for the entire season, but the month of March. The right-hander will earn $150K in 2014 plus performance bonuses.
- Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
- Zach Links gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
Out Of Options Players: NL West
The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so. I've included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources. Next, we'll take a look at the NL West.
Diamondbacks: Randall Delgado, Matt Tuiasosopo, Marcos Mateo (Rule 5)
With the Diamondbacks beginning their season on March 22nd in Australia against the Dodgers, both teams will deal with a unique set of roster rules, as outlined by MLB.com's Steve Gilbert last month.
Delgado seems slated for Arizona's bullpen, unless perhaps Bronson Arroyo's bulging disk lands him on the DL. Regarding Tuiasosopo, D'Backs manager Kirk Gibson told Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic yesterday, "He definitely could be a guy that comes into play for us because of his versatility."
The D'Backs took Mateo from the Cubs in December's Rule 5 draft, but with Brad Ziegler, J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Addison Reed, Josh Collmenter, and Joe Thatcher seemingly locked in, there won't be room for Mateo if Delgado joins the pen. A trade or injury could create a spot. A trade with the Cubs to retain Mateo's rights wouldn't make much sense, as the D'Backs would still have to pass him through waivers to get him to Triple-A.
Dodgers: Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Drew Butera
Elbert is on the 60-day DL currently, so he won't be occupying a roster spot. Guerra is "up against it" in trying to make a Dodgers bullpen stacked with veterans, as explained by MLB.com's Ken Gurnick last month. Tim Federowicz is set to back up A.J. Ellis behind the plate, so the Dodgers will probably have to try to pass Butera through waivers.
Giants: David Huff, Joaquin Arias, Gregor Blanco, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi, Ehire Adrianza, Tony Abreu
Yesterday, Matt Kawahara of The Sacramento Bee suggested there are two openings in the Giants' bullpen, assuming Petit makes the group as a long man. Machi will probably take one, but it could be tough for Huff to make the team in a similar role to Petit. Heath Hembree, Derek Law, and Jose De Paula are just a few of the other names in the mix.
There won't be room for both Adrianza and Abreu, as explained by Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles. It seems likely one of them will be traded.
Padres: Cameron Maybin, Eric Stults, Dale Thayer, Yonder Alonso, Rene Rivera, Alex Torres
Unless the Padres decide to carry three catchers, Rivera's shot at making the team depends on Yasmani Grandal's recovery from July knee surgery.
Rockies: Jordan Pacheco, Tyler Chatwood
Pacheco is slated to serve as the backup catcher behind Wilin Rosario, though he had an issue with his shoulder earlier this week. Michael McKenry is in camp to provide some competition for Pacheco.
Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins
The Marlins made a series of small moves as they wait for their young core to reach the Major League level and climb out of the NL East cellar.
Major League Signings
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C: Three years, $21MM.
- Garrett Jones, 1B/OF: Two years, $7.75MM.
- Jeff Baker, 1B/2B/OF: Two years, 3.7MM.
- Rafael Furcal, 2B: One year, $3MM.
- Carlos Marmol, RHP: One year, $1.25MM.
- Casey McGehee, 3B: One year, $1.1MM.
- Total Spend: $37.8MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Carter Capps from the Mariners in exchange for 1B/OF Logan Morrison.
- Acquired OF Brian Bogusevic from the Cubs in exchange for OF Justin Ruggiano.
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Logan Morrison, Justin Ruggiano, Placido Polanco, Juan Pierre, Chris Coghlan, Casey Kotchman, Chad Qualls, Ryan Webb
Needs Addressed
The Marlins’ offseason began with a long-awaited shakeup that saw president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest dismissed, with assistant GM Dan Jennings being promoted to general manager and general manager Michael Hill assuming Beinfest’s old role. The drama leading up to the decision was widely publicized, as Beinfest was long said to have clashed with owner Jeffrey Loria, who often went over Beinfest’s head. One example was last summer’s one-year extension for bench bat Greg Dobbs; the deal was said to be worked out by Loria and Dobbs’ agent, with Beinfest not even being aware that the negotiations were taking place.
With the front-office shuffle out of the way, the Marlins set to work on supplementing their young core. While the Anibal Sanchez trade brought over young catcher Rob Brantly, who for a time looked to be the catcher of the future, Miami wasn’t happy enough with Brantly’s progress and elected to fill the void with their biggest signing of the offseason. Saltalamacchia (pictured) was brought in on a three-year, $21MM deal that proved to be far less expensive than most pundits had figured — particularly after 35-year-old Carlos Ruiz signed a three-year, $26.5MM deal to remain with the Phillies.
While Saltalamacchia has his flaws — he strikes out at a prolific rate and does not hit well from the right side of the dish — the deal looks quite favorable when juxtaposed with the much older Ruiz’s contract. Saltalamacchia’s deal pays him for his age-29 to age-31 seasons. Beyond that, he’s bound to be an improvement for a team that saw its catchers post a collective .192/.249/.280 batting line (no, that is not a typo) in 2013 — good for the worst cumulative wRC+ (42) at that position in all of Major League Baseball.
Unhappy with the way former top prospect Morrison had turned out — both on and off the field — the Marlins traded the injury-plagued social media guru to the Mariners in exchange for a flamethrowing right-hander in the form of Capps. While Capps has a good deal of upside as a late-inning arm, it still seems a disappointing return for a player who once looked to be on his way to emerging as one of the National League’s top young first basemen. Brash or not, LoMo twice ranked among Baseball America’s Top 20 MLB prospects and slashed .259/.351/.460 in his age-22 to age-23 seasons before a pair of knee surgeries diminished his 2012-13 production.
The Marlins aimed big in their attempts to find an upgrade over Morrison, as they reportedly made a serious run at Cuban slugger Jose Abreu and were comfortable pursuing him even when it was learned that his price tag would exceed $50MM. Abreu ultimately signed with the White Sox on a six-year, $68MM contract, forcing Miami to look elsewhere.
It’s no Abreu, but the Marlins were able to cobble together a cheap platoon that should be able to provide plenty of pop. The signings of Jones and Baker were met with little fanfare, but the duo could be an under-the-radar source of offense for the Fish. Baker pummelled lefties at a .314/.407/.667 clip with 10 homers in 123 PAs last season and has a career .298/.353/.522 line against southpaws. Likewise, the lefty-swinging Jones has a career .271/.337/.489 batting line against right-handed pitching. The pair may be defensively limited, but they could surprise at the plate.
Loria’s issues with second base prospect Derek Dietrich were well-documented last year — Loria wanted to hold Dietrich down in the minors due to the belief that he was one of the reasons hitting coach Tino Martinez resigned after players dubbed him abusive — and the club sought to address that hole on the free agent market. Miami inked Furcal, a lifetime shortstop, to a one-year deal with the idea of him manning the keystone on an everyday basis.
Polanco provided veteran leadership but little else for the Marlins in 2013, and with retirement a likely outcome for Polanco, Miami plucked McGehee out of Nippon Professional Baseball on a cheap one-year deal. McGehee posted a monster season as Masahiro Tanaka‘s teammate with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, slashing .292/.376/.515 with 28 homers.
Losing Qualls was an undoubted hit to the bullpen, but Miami added Capps and took a reasonable gamble on Marmol’s strikeouts. It’s easy to chuckle at Marmol’s struggles, but he’s never whiffed fewer than 10.8 hitters per nine innings in a big league season. Even marginal improvement in his command could make him a weapon.
Questions Remaining
There’s no doubt that Jose Fernandez is one of the best young pitchers in the game and the cornerstone of the Marlins’ rotation; the $635K payday they gave him proves that, as the Marlins could’ve given him a mere $1K raise and not been alone in such a pre-arb payscale.
However, they neglected to add any veteran depth beyond re-signing Slowey to another minor league deal, and seem willing to proceed with Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez and Jacob Turner behind him in the rotation. Slowey, Tom Koehler, Brian Flynn, Andrew Heaney and others will compete for the fifth slot. The Marlins have depth, but a veteran arm on a one-year deal could’ve helped lessen the burden for their young stockpile of starters.
Likewise, they seem set to go with youth in the outfield alongside Giancarlo Stanton, as Jake Marisnick, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna battle for the other two slots. All three come with plenty of upside and have been Top 100 prospects, but each is also under the age of 24.
Turning toward the infield, there are question marks at all four spots. The aforementioned Baker/Jones platoon should hit, but neither has shown much defensive aptitude at first base. McGehee left for NPB due to a drastic decline at the plate. Adeiny Hechavarria‘s defense has impressed the Marlins, but he pulled off the rare feat of posting a sub-.300 average, OBP and slugging percentage in 2013 (.227/.267/.298). This year will be critical for him to show that his bat can trend closer to his Triple-A numbers (.327/.376/.446 in 606 PAs).
Furcal didn’t play in 2013 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and at age 36, how much does he have left in the tank? He batted .264/.325/.346 in 2012 with the Cardinals and has appeared in just five games at second base since 2001. Can he really be an upgrade over Dietrich, who struggled offensively but showed plus pop with a .214/.275/.405 batting line? Among second basemen with 200+ PAs, only Robinson Cano and Jedd Gyorko bested Dietrich’s .191 ISO. He did skip Triple-A, so perhaps some time at that level will improve his all-around game.
Of course, the biggest question with the Marlins on a year-to-year basis regards Stanton. Miami has said that the plan is to build around Stanton (and now Fernandez), but outside of Saltalamacchia and a failed push for Abreu, the Marlins did little this offseason to impress Stanton. Miami is counting on its young core to make large strides and form the basis of a winning team, but that could take until 2016, when Stanton has just one year of team control remaining. Stanton tweeted that he was “pissed off” following the Marlins’ 2012-13 firesale in which they traded Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson and others, effectively hitting the reset button just one year into a new stadium. Has the bridge been burned, or could those same players’ inability to win with the Blue Jays (along with Miami’s bounty of prospects) have quelled Stanton’s anger?
Deal of Note
As stated above, the Morrison trade brought back a young arm with some upside, but was that the best possible return the team could have gotten? It’s odd to think that Morrison wound up with the Mariners — a team that already had Justin Smoak, Corey Hart, Jesus Montero and several other corner/DH type bats in house.
Fast forwarding to the present day, the Pirates and Brewers still lack a great deal of uncertainty at first base, and either team would likely consider Morrison an upgrade over its current in-house options. Capps has averaged 10.1 K/9 in his young career with decent control (3.6 BB/9) and an average fastball velocity of 96.5 mph. However, he’s also yielded a .321/.414/.543 batting line to opposing lefties.
It’s fair to wonder if a better deal for Morrison would have materialized had the Marlins exercised more patience.
Overview
The 2014 Marlins could be an improved team simply due to the fact that their young players have another year of big league experience under their belts. Adding Saltalamacchia should help to improve the team’s production from behind the plate, but most of their other additions come with questions on defense, offense or both.
While the Marlins could win a few more games, their offseason dealings likely weren’t enough to pull them out of last place in the NL East. They’ll probably have another Top 5 to 10 selection in the 2015 draft after choosing second this year and sixth last year. However, the clock to extend Stanton is ticking, and an improved on-field product would likely help their cause. At some point, the results will need to show up on the field and in the standings, but for now, another Marlins rebuild continues.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Out Of Options Players: AL Central
The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so. I've included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources. Next, we'll take a look at the AL Central.
Indians: Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman
Both Carrasco and Outman will be on the Indians' pitching staff, noted Tony Lastoria of FOX Sports Ohio on Monday. Carrasco is battling a few others for the fifth starter job, but if he doesn't earn it he'll go to the pen.
Royals: Brett Hayes, Jarrod Dyson, Justin Maxwell, Pedro Ciriaco, Francisley Bueno, Carlos Peguero, Danny Valencia
Hayes seems to be the favorite to back up Salvador Perez at catcher, as 24-year-old Francisco Pena can get more seasoning at Triple-A. Veteran Ramon Hernandez, signed to a minor league deal, is also in the mix for the Royals' backup catcher job.
Dyson is expected to make the team as the center field backup for Lorenzo Cain, wrote Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star last week. That leaves Maxwell and Peguero battling for the fifth outfield spot. Maxwell would seem to have a leg up, having played well upon joining the team in a trade last July. His right-handed bat might be of more use to the Royals, who avoided arbitration with Maxwell in a January agreement about a week before acquiring Peguero.
The Royals seem to have room for five infielders, and Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star wrote last week that Valencia is likely to make the team. That would leave the team without a reserve middle infielder behind Omar Infante and Alcides Escobar. If the Royals do surprise and find a way to include a reserve middle infielder, it would be a competition of Ciriaco, Christian Colon, and Johnny Giavotella.
Bueno is competing with Donnie Joseph and Everett Teaford to become the Royals' second bullpen lefty behind Tim Collins.
Tigers: Don Kelly, Evan Reed, Jose Iglesias
Kelly is in good standing as a super-utility man. There appears to be one bullpen job up for grabs, with pitchers such as Luke Putkonen, Justin Miller, Blaine Hardy, and Casey Crosby (if healthy) among those battling with Reed. The Tigers claimed Reed off waivers from the Marlins about a year ago, and will probably need to put him in their bullpen to start the season to retain him.
Twins: Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, Vance Worley, Eduardo Escobar, Alex Presley, Chris Parmelee
Plouffe and Swarzak are locks to make the club. Plouffe figures to man third base on an everyday basis now that Miguel Sano is out for the season, and Swarzak was among the league's best swingmen in 2013.
Diamond, Deduno and Worley are in the mix for the fifth spot in the rotation, and each can make their case based on historical context. Diamond was the club's best starter in 2012, Deduno has outperformed him since, and Worley was a key component of the Ben Revere trade just one offseason ago before a disastrous 2013 dropped his stock. The trio also has deal with top prospect Kyle Gibson, who is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. Any of the three could end up in the bullpen, but at least one seems likely to go.
Presley has the inside track to make the club either as the Opening Day center fielder — should Aaron Hicks struggle in Spring Training — or as a fourth outfielder.
Escobar's versatility is appealing to the Twins, and his case for the Opening Day roster has been strengthened now that starter Pedro Florimon had his appendix removed two weeks ago. Florimon is fielding grounders pain-free as of yesterday, per MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger, but his Opening Day status is up in the air. Former Twin Jason Bartlett is in camp as a non-roster invitee and could serve as competition.
Parmelee is a former first-rounder that hasn't hit since a 2011 September call-up. The now-26-year-old demolished Triple-A pitching in 2012 but has batted just .228/.302/.364 over his past 543 PAs in the Majors. He didn't fare much better at Triple-A in 2013. With Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham at the outfield corners, Joe Mauer at first base and Jason Kubel likely to make the club as a DH/corner outfielder, Parmelee's best hope is to lock down a bench role. His experience at first base could give him an edge for that spot.
White Sox: Conor Gillaspie, Ronald Belisario, Mitchell Boggs, Maikel Cleto, Donnie Veal, Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo
The Sox seem to only have one spot open for a third baseman at this time, though that could change if they trade an outfielder like Dayan Viciedo or Alejandro De Aza. As it stands, Gillaspie is competing for third base with Jeff Keppinger and rookie Matt Davidson. It would be sensible to start Davidson at Triple-A, and it's possible lingering effects of Keppinger's September shoulder surgery could cause him to start the year on the DL.
Boggs and Belisario seem locks for the bullpen after signing as free agents, though Belisario has yet to arrive in camp due to visa issues. A few of the team's relievers are dealing with nagging injuries, but if everyone is healthy and Belisario is in camp as Opening Day approaches, there would seem to be one spot for either Veal (a lefty) or Cleto. Veal is the favorite over Cleto, who joined the team in a waiver claim just last week.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.