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Have The Tigers Found A Hidden Gem Of A Slugger?

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The 2022 Tigers were baseball’s worst offensive team, as the lineup’s near-total lack of production was the chief cause (even beyond a staggering number of pitcher injuries) for a hugely disappointing 66-96 record in what was supposed to be a return to contention.  “Best batter on the 2022 Tigers” is pretty faint praise, and Kerry Carpenter’s 113 plate appearances last season didn’t even make him a qualified hitter, yet Carpenter still took the dubious honor by posting a team-leading 124 wRC+ over his 31 games of work in his rookie season.

While Carpenter hadn’t really been on Detroit’s radar last year amidst the bigger-name veterans or more highly-touted prospects on the roster, a club so suddenly desperate for hitting could hardly afford to look past a promising bat.  This earned him a larger share of playing time heading into 2023, though Carpenter had a modest .217/.280/.464 slash line over his first 75 PA this season.  He was then dealt another setback when he sprained his right shoulder at the end of April, resulting in about six weeks on the injured list.

Upon returning from the IL, however, Carpenter has not just been the Tigers’ best batter, but also quietly one of the most productive bats in baseball.  Since Carpenter was activated on June 9, only nine qualified hitters have topped his 159 wRC+, as he has slashed .317/.380/.575 over 245 PA.  He joined the 20-homer club this past Wednesday, with a grand slam that represented all of Detroit’s offense in a 6-4 loss to the Cubs.

These types of numbers are impressive for anyone, but especially for a 19th-round draft pick from the 2019 draft.  Carpenter hit well in his first pro season, but likely due to the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, he took a bit of a step back in 2021 with a .752 OPS over 461 PA for Double-A Erie.  Carpenter returned to Erie to begin the 2022 season, but he started to tear up pitching at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels, finishing 2022 with a .313/.380/.645 line and 30 homers over an even 400 PA for the two affiliates.

In this sense, Carpenter didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, though few would’ve predicted that he would’ve kept swinging a hot bat in the majors.  And, it is worth noting that Carpenter has still totaled only 433 PA in the big leagues — too small a sample size to clearly state that he is truly for real.  Carpenter’s walk and strikeout rates are also a bit below the league average, and he has some significant splits, as his left-handed swing is lot more productive against right-handed pitching (.938 OPS) than against southpaws (.724 OPS).  Carpenter has also benefited from a .328 BABIP this season, and his .382 wOBA is well above his .362 xwOBA.

That said, a .362 xwOBA ranks in the 87th percentile of all batters, so Carpenter’s production would be very notable if he was “only” delivering at that expected level.  His contact and barrel rates are both well north of average, so it isn’t like he is getting lucky on soft contact.  And, while we’re still operating within a small overall sample size of career at-bats, Carpenter is doing much better against left-handed pitching in 2023 than he did in 2022.

On the defensive side, Carpenter has made some positive strides as a corner outfielder, spending most of his time in right field this year.  A Gold Glove isn’t necessarily in Carpenter’s future, but public metrics have rated his right field work as just a touch below average.  The UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics have been more impressed by his 72 1/3 innings in left field, though Carpenter’s solid throwing arm probably makes him a better fit in right field.  While more DH at-bats will be available in Detroit once Miguel Cabrera retires, Carpenter certainly looks like at least a passable corner outfielder, which gives the Tigers more flexibility in how they’ll manage their roster going forward.

Detroit’s 2023 offense is still near the bottom of the league, but there have at least been some signs of life with Carpenter’s production, and solid showings from former top draft picks Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson.  Blue-chip star prospects like Greene and Torkelson have been the faces of the Tigers’ lineup of the future, but striking paydirt on a less-regarded player or two has always been a key element of any successful rebuild.  It looks like the Tigers might have found at least an MLB regular with their 19th-round selection, and Carpenter’s elite production over the last few months might also hint at a higher ceiling.

Bobby Witt Jr. Is Reaching His Potential

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There hasn’t been much positive to say about the Royals this season. They’ve posted a brutal 41-90 record to this point in the season that places them a whopping 26.5 games back even in the extraordinarily weak AL Central, saved from sporting the worst record in baseball only by an abysmal A’s team. To make matters worse, they’re one of just two organizations without a top-100 prospect on MLB.com’s most recent rankings, joined only by the Astros, an organization that not only was stripped of its first- and second-round picks during the 2020 and 2021 drafts but also had a prospect in the top 100 until they dealt him to the Mets to reacquire Justin Verlander.

With a terrible record and a barren farm system, it’s been a difficult year for fans in Kansas City. While they entered the 2023 campaign with an interesting core of young position players, most of them have battled either injury or ineffectiveness this year- first basemen Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are currently on the injured list, while MJ Melendez hasn’t turned out to be the successor to Salvador Perez behind the plate many thought he could become. On the pitching side of things, last year’s impressive season from right-hander Brady Singer now appears to have been a mirage and an exciting start to the season from lefty Kris Bubic was cut short by Tommy John surgery after just three starts.

Despite all the disappointments of the 2023 campaign for the Royals, there’s been one undeniable bright spot for this organization in 2023. Bobby Witt Jr. was the club’s pick with the second overall selection in the 2019 draft and tore through the minor leagues, eventually becoming the top-rated prospect in all of baseball according to both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus ahead of the 2022 campaign. He ultimately had a respectable first season in the major leagues, playing in 150 games while slashing .254/.294/.498, an offensive performance that clocked in just below league average with a 98 wRC+.

While he managed to swipe 30 bags in 37 attempts, brutal defense at both third base and shortstop combined with an uninspiring performance on offense saw the AL Rookie of the Year favorite coming into the season slide to fourth place when all was said and done, finishing behind not only fellow exciting youngsters Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, but a relative unknown in Steven Kwan of the club’s division rival Guardians. Unfair as it may be to expect top prospects to immediately reach their projected excellence upon reaching the major leagues, Witt’s debut season was disappointing relative to the sky-high expectations in place for the 22-year-old rookie.

Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared Witt was on base for moderate improvements, but nothing particularly eye-catching. Through the first half of the season, Witt’s defense had improved substantially as he settled in as the Royals’ everyday shortstop and he was already on his way to beating 2022’s stolen base total with 23 bags swiped in 29 attempts, but his bat was lagging behind the rest of the package. In his first 351 trips to the plate this season, Witt slashed just .244/.288/.415 with a strikeout rate just over 20%, an eerily similar slash line to the one he had posted the previous season.

Things changed dramatically for Witt once the calendar flipped to July, however. In nine games prior to the All Star break, he slashed .382/.410/.782 in 40 trips to the plate. While his strikeout rate remained elevated during this stretch, at 22.5%, his six extra base hits in so few games were virtually unheard of for him to that point in his major league career. Witt stayed hot following the break, and ended the month with an impressive July slash line of .327/.346/.633.

As impressive as Witt’s July was, he’s been even better in August. In 100 plate appearances this month, Witt has slashed a sensational .359/.410/.707 with a strikeout rate of just 11%. He has more extra base hits (15) than strikeouts (11) this month, has gone 8-for-9 on the basepaths to bring his stolen base total this year to 37. Even his walk rate, which sits at just 5% for his career, has ticked up to 8% this month. In all, Witt has slashed .347/.378/.668 with 14 homers, 14 stolen bases, and a 15.1% strikeout rate since the beginning of July.

Of course, the past two months account for just 205 plate appearances, just over a third of his total trips to the plate this year. Even so, his season-long numbers are looking mighty impressive at this point. At the plate, he’s slashed .280/.321/.508 overall this season, with a 119 wRC+ that’s a substantial improvement over last year’s below-average mark. By season’s end, he appears to be a veritable lock for at least 30 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Those offensive numbers leave out his incredible glovework this season, as well. Witt’s +13 Outs Above Average in 2023 trail only Dansby Swanson among all major leaguers. While DRS isn’t quite as enamored with Witt’s glovework this season, giving him a figure of just -2, that’s still an incredible improvement from last season, when his -22 DRS was second-worst in the majors.

Between his recent offensive explosion and season-long excellence with the glove, Witt has accumulated 5.1 fWAR through 127 games this season. That phenomenal figure places him behind only Shohei Ohtani among AL players, ahead of players in the midst of phenomenal seasons such as Rodriguez, Marcus Semien, and Luis Robert Jr. By the numbers, Witt has been virtually the same player as Mets star Francisco Lindor in terms of value, with Lindor boasting slightly better offense (124 wRC+) in exchange for slightly weaker fielding and baserunning numbers.

Perhaps most exciting of all for Royals fans is that Witt, still just 23 years old, is under team control through the end of the 2027 season. With four more seasons of their budding superstar in a Royals uniform to look forward to, the Royals still have several years to build a contender around their budding superstar and make a run at their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 2015 before his team control runs out and he has the option to depart in free agency.

Kansas City’s odds are particularly good considering the weak division they play in; after all, the Twins have a commanding lead for the AL Central crown this year despite a mediocre 67-63 record, and the division’s biggest spenders in the White Sox are clearly trending in the wrong direction at the moment. Despite the 2023 team’s brutal record and a farm system without clear impact talent on the way, all is not lost for the Royals going forward, and their franchise shortstop is perhaps the primary reason why.

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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We’re now about three quarters of the way through the regular season, and the free-agent landscape has changed considerably since our last power rankings back in June. With the trade market passed, we now know who will and won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer at season’s end. (Traded players cannot receive a QO.) Max Scherzer needn’t be listed at the back of the list or among the honorable mentions now that he’s agreed to pick up next year’s player option as part of the condition of his trade to Texas. Injuries, performance trends — both good and bad — and many other factors all contribute to shifts in market expectation.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Age, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our Power Rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

*=Player option/opt-out opportunity
**=Currently playing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels
Eligible for qualifying offer

The baseball world is still reeling from this week’s news that Ohtani has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament for the second time in his career. He won’t pitch again this season, and surgery — be it Tommy John or an internal brace — is firmly on the table. For now, he’ll continue to serve as the Angels’ DH as he and the team receive outside opinions on his damaged ligament.

There’s no way around the fact that Ohtani’s injury represents a massive blow to his earning power — but perhaps not to the extent that many fans would think. Ohtani is still the best player on the planet, doing things that we simply haven’t seen in our lifetimes — arguably ever before. The 29-year-old’s .304/.409/.659 batting line puts him 80% ahead of the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and prior to his injury, he’d run up 132 innings of 3.14 ERA ball.

Ohtani ranks seventh in the Majors in batting average, second in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage (by more than 60 points), tenth in ERA and third in strikeout percentage (as a pitcher). We’ve grown almost accustomed to this level of excellence, but the manner in which he permeates both the offensive and pitching leaderboards in Major League Baseball is nothing short of prodigious.

Certainly, it’s an open question as to whether Ohtani will pitch at all next year. By the time he’s reached free agency, we’ll likely know the answer to that question. Depending on whether he needs surgery — and, if so, which surgery he requires — it’s possible he’ll miss the beginning of the 2024 season. Bryce Harper had offseason Tommy John surgery this past year and returned to the Phillies on May 2. Ohtani himself had his first Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and was back on the field as a designated hitter on May 7 the following year.

Even if Ohtani is ruled out from pitching next year, any team signing him would be paying for one of the game’s best hitters — and for a potential return to the mound in 2025. It’s fair to wonder just how long Ohtani can continue pitching and hitting simultaneously and do so at elite levels, but he’s spent the past three years proving those who doubted his preternatural talents wrong. The ultra-competitive Ohtani will surely try to do so again; there’s little reason to think he’d move on from pitching due to a second surgery. What shape that eventually takes — limiting him to five innings most starts, affording him extra rest throughout the season, moving him to the bullpen, etc. — will likely depend on the team with which he eventually signs.

Regardless of Ohtani’s future on the mound, he’ll probably still set the record for largest free agent contract ever. That may sound outlandish to some at first glance, but consider the fact that Ohtani will reach the market two years younger than Aaron Judge was when he scored a $360MM guarantee. Judge landed that record sum as a 31-year-old who ostensibly only had three competitive bidders: the incumbent Yankees, his hometown Giants, and the late-bidding Padres. Ohtani will draw interest from a larger number of teams. And, as marketable as Judge is, Ohtani is even more so. The additional revenues he’d generate from his global fan base can’t be overlooked.

Moreover, Ohtani only seems to be getting better at the plate. After striking out at 28.1% clip through his first four seasons, he dropped that number to 24.2% last year. The lowered strikeout rate also came with a dip in walk rate (down to 10.8%), but this year he’s maintained that improved strikeout rate while bumping his walk rate back to 14.2%. Ohtani is also just two home runs shy of his career-high and looks like a lock to reach 50 home runs. His .360 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-high. Ohtani’s 94.9 mph average exit velocity trails only Judge, and his 118.3 mph maximum exit velo this season trails only Matt Olson. No player has hit a ball further than Ohtani’s MLB-best 493 feet, per Statcast.

Ohtani’s second UCL tear could shorten his 2024 season and might necessitate extra care for his arm when he returns to the mound — be that late in the 2024 season or early in the 2025 campaign. But he’s probably going to pitch again — he’ll certainly try to — and even if he doesn’t, he’s hitting the market as one of baseball’s premier offensive players in advance of his age-29 season. Plus, if Ohtani were to ever give up pitching, he wouldn’t be “just” a designated hitter, as many detractors have suggested. Ohtani is no stranger to the outfield, having played there during his NPB days. Statcast still credits him with 65th percentile sprint speed, and there’s no questioning his raw athleticism and arm strength. There’s little reason to think he couldn’t at least be a serviceable corner outfielder.

Age and elite offensive performance on their own still ought to push Ohtani past Judge this winter. The only question will be how far beyond Judge he can ultimately club. Securing the first $400MM free agent contract in history feels attainable even with the questions surrounding his arm. Time will tell if $500MM+ remains on the table.

2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs
Eligible for qualifying offer

Bellinger jumps from unranked on our last list to the No. 2 spot in a matter of just two months. At the time of our June list, he’d just been reinstated from the injured list and was mired in what turned out to be a fleeting slump. We listed Bellinger as an honorable mention and considered him for a spot near the bottom of the list, but felt he needed to improve his stock a bit. He’s done that — and then some.

Not many one-year, make-good deals have gone as well as Bellinger’s remarkable bounceback season. Non-tendered by the Dodgers after shoulder surgery left him a shell of his former Rookie of the Year and MVP self from 2021-22, Bellinger now looks to be back in a big way. The 2019 Most Valuable Player is batting .320/.368/.552 with 20 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple and 17 steals in 20 tries. The most alarming element of his downturn in 2021-22 was a strikeout rate that ballooned to 27.1%, but Bellinger is now punching out at a career-low 15.5% rate.

Bellinger’s rebound isn’t without red flags, as I noted last week when profiling his season at greater length. He missed more than a month with a knee injury, and in more under-the-radar fashion, the quality of his contact is just nowhere near as good as it was at his peak. Bellinger is averaging 87.2 mph off the bat — four miles per hour slower than during his MVP season. A hefty 45.6% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph+ in 2019; he’s at 30.8% in 2023. He’ll also receive and reject a qualifying offer, though for free agents of this caliber, that’s rarely a significant deterrent.

The Cubs have played Bellinger both at first base and in center field this season, and he’ll draw interest from teams with visions of playing him at first base and across all three outfield spots. He drew plus ratings from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in his return to first base, and he’s been credited with +4 OAA in center field this year. Teams will see Bellinger as a versatile and above-average defender at multiple spots on the field.

The other factors to consider with Bellinger are age and market scarcity. He won’t turn 29 until July 13 of next season, meaning next year will technically be considered his age-28 season. (July 1 is the typical cutoff for such designations.) He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent, and he happens to hit the market in a year where there’s not only a lack of quality outfielders/first baseman — but a lack of quality bats overall.

Bellinger is at least two years younger than each of Kris Bryant ($182MM), Brandon Nimmo ($162MM) and George Springer ($150MM) were when they hit free agency. He’s having a better offensive platform year than any of that group at the plate. Bellinger and Scott Boras will likely be seeking $200MM+ in free agency this time around, and there’s a real chance he’ll get it.

3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes**
Ineligible for qualifying offer

At the time of our June list, Yamamoto was sitting on a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 frames, positioning him to potentially finish the season with his fourth sub-2.00 ERA in the past five years. Since that time, he’s allowed five total runs in 51 2/3 frames. His 0.87 ERA in that stretch has dropped his season mark to 1.50 over the life of 120 innings. He’s averaging seven innings per start in NPB this year.

If age was worth mentioning with regard to Bellinger, it’s worth focusing on in near-singular fashion with Yamamoto, who turned 25 just last week. Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in NPB — widely regarded as the second-best league in the world — despite the fact that he’s around the same age as some of the yet-to-debut names that populate top prospect lists here in North America. He went straight from the NPB draft into the Buffaloes’ rotation, and while his 5.32 ERA as a rookie wasn’t exactly captivating, Yamamoto followed with a 2.10 ERA in 2019 and has been established as an ace-caliber pitcher ever since.

Most MLB free agents hit the market between 29 and 31 years of age. There are occasional 28-year-old free agents, and even more rarely we’ll see a 27-year-old or even 26-year-old, if said player reached the big leagues as some kind of youthful phenom. Yamamoto will be signing a contract beginning with his age-25 season — a virtually unprecedented age for a top-of-the-rotation arm to reach the market. A six-year deal for him would run through only his age-30 season — the same age at which many MLB free agents are just getting to market. It’s always hard to predict how the market might react to star players coming over from NPB or the Korea Baseball Organization, but Yamamoto’s blend of age and performance is basically unprecedented. It’s easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years — possibly even more — based on his youth. Presumably, Yamamoto’s camp could look to work some opt-out opportunities into any deal as well.

Yamamoto isn’t a true free agent; he’ll need to be posted by the Buffaloes, though it’s widely expected they’ll do just that. Any team that signs Yamamoto would owe his former club a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter (including options, incentives, awards bonuses, etc.). On a $200MM deal, for instance, the signing team would owe an additional $31.875MM release fee.

Predicting contracts for foreign stars is always something of a dice roll — far more than standard MLB free agents, where precedent is more abundant. Yamamoto lacks any true comparables in terms of market context seasons, but the demand for him should be fierce.

4. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
Eligible for qualifying offer

To call the 2023 season an “uneven” one for Urias would be a bit of an understatement. The southpaw got out to a strong start through his first four turns on the mound, stumbled badly over his next five appearances, and hit the injured list with a hamstring strain. Urias was set to return after just a few weeks but suffered a setback and wound up missing nearly two months with the injury. Upon his return, he was rocked for five runs in three innings, sending his ERA ballooning to 4.94. He was dominant for his next two turns (one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio) … then blown up for eight runs in Baltimore.

The pendulum swung back in the other direction following that outing, and Urias is still on the upswing. In his past five starts, he’s posted a 2.03 ERA. Overall, Urias has a 4.15 ERA on the season and a 3.88 ERA since returning from the injured list. Much of the damage done against him this season has been confined to five brutal outings.

Urias isn’t a power arm. He’s averaging 92.9 mph on his fastball this season — a career-low, but barely down from the 93.1 mph he averaged in 2022 when he posted a 2.16 ERA in 175 frames. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, and this year’s 24.1% rate is in line with his previous levels: solidly above average, but far from elite. However, he’s always boasted exceptional command, and his 4.9% walk rate in 2023 is the best of his career. His walk rate ranks 10th among the 93 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this season and is only 0.1% behind the three pitchers ahead of him on the list (Joe Ryan, Miles Mikolas, Zack Wheeler).

Urias is a tough free agent to peg. From 2018-22, he logged a brilliant 2.61 ERA in 499 1/3 innings, but due largely to a .252 BABIP and 79.8% strand rate, fielding-independent metrics were far less bullish (3.42 FIP, 3.80 SIERA). And, because of early-career shoulder surgery, Urias’ workload was limited aggressively until the 2021 season. He’s only made 30 starts in a season twice (2021 and 2022), and he won’t reach that level in 2023. Urias was also arrested in May 2019 after video reportedly showed him shoving a female companion to the ground. Major League Baseball subsequently suspended him for 20 games under the joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Though it was several years ago, that still figures to weigh into the evaluation process for many teams.

The biggest factor Urias will have on his side in free agency will be age. Because he debuted as a 19-year-old, he’s reaching the open market at just 27 years of age. He won’t turn 28 until next August. Because of that youth, Urias could be in line for a lengthier contract than the standard pitcher, which is why he and Yamamoto stand as the top non-Ohtani pitchers on this ranking. Even an eight-year deal would only run through the left-hander’s age-34 season.

5. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays
Eligible for qualifying offer

Chapman’s first month of the 2023 season was something to behold. When I wrote about his brilliant start to the season in early May, the two-time Platinum Glove winner was raking at a .338/.425/.579 clip. He’d “only” homered five times in six weeks but was already up to 17 doubles. As noted at the time, he’d struck out at a considerably lower rate than past seasons in April but had begun to swing and miss more in May. “If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play,” I wrote at the time.

Unfortunately — the whiffs indeed snowballed. Chapman fanned at just a 22.8% clip through the end of April, but he’s gone down on strikes in 29.5% of his plate appearances since that time. Since that look at Chapman’s sensational start to the season … he’s batted .212/.302/.373 (88 wRC+).

On the whole, Chapman’s season has still been productive. His .250/.339/.435 slash is 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’s ripped 15 home runs, 35 doubles and a triple in 507 plate appearances and drawn walks at a very strong 11% clip. More encouraging is the fact that when Chapman makes contact, he’s absolutely scorching the ball. This year’s 93.7 mph average exit velocity is in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. Only Aaron Judge and Matt Olson have put a higher percentage of their batted balls in play at 95 mph or more than Chapman’s outrageous 57.2%.

That batted-ball profile will undoubtedly intrigue many teams. Chapman will be viewed as something of an “upside” play with the bat, which is a strange way to characterize someone who we’re ranking fifth in earning power among this year’s free agents. That said, Chapman’s power, ability to draw walks and elite defense give him a high floor, and the elite level of his contact and his prior track record suggest something closer to an MVP-level ceiling. Defensive Runs Saved credits Chapman at +11 this year, while Outs Above Average is at +4. He’s never ranked as a negative in either category.

Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings. Kris Bryant landed $182MM coming off a comparable (albeit better) offensive year — despite lacking anything close to Chapman’s defensive value. Story and Swanson got those contracts despite having turned down qualifying offers. Chapman will turn down a QO as well, and even with the way his bat has sputtered since the first month of the season, he’ll still have a case to end up somewhere in this general range.

6. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Rangers
Ineligible for qualifying offer

Few pitchers have elevated their stock more than Montgomery in recent seasons. The 30-year-old southpaw — 31 in December — missed most of the 2018-19 seasons due to Tommy John surgery and posted a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. Montgomery’s strikeout, walk and grounder rates all remained sharp during that ugly season, though, creating some optimism that he could yet bounce back.

He’s done more than bounce back in the three years since. Montgomery reestablished himself as a viable big league starter in 2021, but he’s steadily elevated himself to No. 2-3 starter status — and he only seems to be getting better. Dating back to 2021, Montgomery has piled up 482 2/3 innings and recorded an impressive 3.49 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 45.5% grounder rate and just 1.01 HR/9. He spent two weeks on the Covid-related injured list in 2021 but has otherwise avoided the IL entirely since returning from Tommy John surgery.

The 2023 season, in particular, is shaping up to be the best of Montgomery’s career. He’s posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA in four starts since being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers, dropping his season-long mark to a career-best 3.12. Montgomery’s 93.6 mph average fastball is the best of his career. He’s striking hitters out at only a league-average level but also limiting walks at a considerably better-than-average rate and inducing grounders at an above-average clip.

Montgomery may not stand out in any one way, but he boasts average or better skills across the board and has shaken off that early ligament replacement surgery to establish himself as a durable mid-rotation starter. His results, peripherals and general durability are all superior to those of Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) last offseason. Because he was traded midseason, he can’t receive a qualifying offer.

Many will be tempted to lump Montgomery into the Walker/Taillon bucket, but he’s been the best pitcher of that trio and is heading into free agency on a high note. Taillon and Walker feel like more of a floor than anything else for Montgomery, who ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year. With a strong and healthy finish to the season, he could secure a nine-figure deal.

7. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
Eligible for qualifying offer

Nola, who turned 30 this summer, has been a standard of durability for the past six years. He hasn’t gone on the injured list with a non-virus issue since 2017. No pitcher has started more games or logged more innings since the start of 2018. For the bulk of that time, he has paired that league-best durability with at least high-end #2 starter results.

The right-hander has six sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt, including a 3.25 mark over 205 innings a season ago. From a run prevention perspective, he’s struggling through a relative down year in 2023. Nola has allowed 4.49 earned runs per nine through 26 appearances. The longball has been the big culprit, as he has already surrendered a personal-high 29 homers in 160 1/3 innings (1.63 HR/9).

Nola has lost a few punchouts as well, although he’s still missing bats at an above-average rate. His 25.2% strikeout percentage is his lowest rate in six years but above the 22% league mark for starters. While his whiffs were way down early in the season, he has a characteristic 28.2% strikeout rate going back to the start of June. The homers have become even more of an issue as the summer has drawn on, but Nola’s strikeout and walk profile of the past three months has resembled that of his entire career.

A pitcher’s home run rate can vary season-to-season. Nola’s ground-ball percentages have nosedived over the past couple years, though. This looks as if it’ll be his second campaigns in the last three years with a middling ERA, as he posted a 4.63 mark in 2021. Nola’s ERA has been above estimators like FIP and SIERA for three years running. Will teams attribute that primarily to poor luck and the lackluster defenses the Phils have turn out behind him, or to something in Nola’s repertoire that makes him more hittable than his strikeout and walk profile would suggest?

The Phils and Nola had some extension conversations during the spring but didn’t appear to get close to a deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer. A five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable, but it’d be easier to project Nola approaching or beating the $162MM which Carlos Rodon received last winter were it not for the home run concerns.

8. Lucas Giolito, SP, Angels
Ineligible for qualifying offer

Aside from the unique cases of Ohtani and Yamamoto, Giolito was the top pitcher in our late-June rankings. The right-hander was sitting on a 3.41 ERA at the time but has allowed a 5.92 mark in nine starts since that point. That’s primarily a reflection of two absolute clunkers — an eight-run drubbing by the Mets on July 18 and nine runs at the hands of the Braves during his first start as an Angel on August 2.

Largely because of those outings, Giolito’s season ERA has jumped to 4.32. Home runs have been an issue, particularly since he landed in Anaheim, but the rest of his profile is generally solid. Giolito hasn’t maintained the form he flashed from 2019-20, when he struck out a third of opponents in consecutive seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA. He now looks the part of a solid #3 starter, fanning a quarter of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate while averaging just under six innings per start.

His velocity is right in line with last year’s mark. His 12.2% swinging strike rate — while down from its 2019-21 peak — is a bit better than average. While Giolito’s small sample ERA with the Angels sits at 6.67, his repertoire, whiffs and control are all in line with his early-season work in Chicago. It’s likely teams will consider his tough first month in Orange County a blip and more or less continue to view him as an above-average, durable starting pitcher.

Giolito turned 29 last month. He’s a year younger than Nola, Snell and Montgomery but markedly older than Urias and Yamamoto. Since he was traded midseason, clubs wouldn’t have to forfeit a draft choice to sign him (as they would for Snell, Nola and Urias). While the past month has been a disaster for the Angels, Giolito’s free agent stock shouldn’t be much different than it was six weeks ago. Given his age, a six-year deal still seems plausible.

9. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer

Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner, has become the veritable embodiment of the “mercurial” and “volatile” adjectives that are often used to describe pitchers. The 30-year-old looked lost early in the season, logging a 5.40 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in his first nine starts. Since then, he’s been perhaps the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Over his past 17 starts, Snell has pitched 97 innings with a 1.48 ERA.

One might be tempted to assume that Snell has corrected the command troubles that dragged him down early on — but that’s not the case. Snell has continued walking more than 13% of his opponents during this stretch, with the primary difference being a massive spike in strikeouts (from 23.8% up to 34.8%) and grounders (37% to 49.7%). Snell has scaled back the usage of his heater in that time, deferring to more changeups and curveballs. The formula has worked beautifully. Snell ranks seventh in the Majors in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (3.7) and trails only Arizona’s Zac Gallen with 4.8 RA9-WAR.

Ace-level results from Snell aren’t exactly anything new. Again, he’s a former Cy Young winner. However, Snell has struggled to stay healthy, and his penchant for deep counts and walking batters has frequently led to early exits from games. Snell has averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start in his big league career. That’s not exactly a reflection of the Rays’ affinity for quick hooks on their starting pitchers either; Snell’s 5.17 innings per start since his trade to the Padres is nearly identical to his 5.15 innings per start in Tampa Bay. Even during this year’s dominant effort, he’s averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing.

In terms of his per-inning performance and his overall raw stuff, Snell is one of the most appealing pitchers in baseball. But he’s also lacked both consistency and efficiency throughout his career, and he’s been on the injured list due to an adductor strain (twice), a fractured toe, loose bodies in his elbow and gastrointeritis since winning that 2018 Cy Young Award. This year’s 142 innings are already the second-highest total of his career. Snell will also have to contend with a qualifying offer, which he’ll surely reject in search of a longer-term deal.

Snell undoubtedly has his flaws, but over the past calendar year he’s made 33 starts and posted a 2.51 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, 42.8% grounder rate and just 0.84 homers per nine innings. He’s pitched 183 innings in that time — just shy of 5 2/3 frames per outing. There’s plenty of reason for caution, but Snell at his best is a legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series. Volatility notwithstanding, he could land a nine-figure deal of five or more years in length.

10. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer

While some of the names on this list have struggled since the June edition of our Power Rankings, Hader has been the opposite. He’s tossed 16 shutout innings since that day, allowing just six hits and punching out 44.6% of his opponents. The 29-year-old now boasts a career-low 0.81 ERA in 44 2/3 innings on the season. He’s carrying a 39.9% strikeout rate, and while his 13.5% walk rate remains high, that’s easier to get away with when two out of every five hitters that come to the plate fall to a strikeout.

There was some concern surrounding Hader as he slumped in the weeks preceding and immediately following last year’s trade to the Padres. He righted the ship following a six-run meltdown in late August, however. Since shaking off that disastrous outing, Hader has pitched 61 1/3 innings of 0.74 ERA ball with a 39.7% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s still primarily a fly-ball pitcher, but Hader’s 36.3% ground-ball rate is a pretty big jump from the 27.4% mark he posted from 2018-22. He’s using the sinker he implemented in 2022 more than ever this year, and while his 2.6% homer-to-flyball rate is bound to regress, this year’s pristine 0.20 HR/9 is also at least partially influenced by that uptick in grounders.

Hader will receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s a risk for most relievers, but it’s a slam dunk for Hader, who could become the highest-paid relief pitcher ever within the next few months. He’ll be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the reliever record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. Barring a catastrophic collapse or a disastrously timed injury, Hader will take aim at making Diaz’s record and have a good chance at making it short-lived.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader (OF), Jeimer Candelario (3B), Sonny Gray (SP), Teoscar Hernandez (OF/DH), Shota Imanaga (SP)**, Michael Lorenzen (SP), Yuki Matsui (RP)**,  Eduardo Rodriguez (SP)*, Jorge Soler (DH/OF)*, Marcus Stroman (SP)*

MLBTR Poll: AL West Winner

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Heading into play Tuesday, there’s only one division where the lead is two games or fewer. That’s the AL West, which has a pair of teams within two games of the frontrunner. Whoever wins the division is very likely to get a first-round bye — all three teams are at least five games clear of the AL Central-leading Twins — adding extra incentive for the clubs to secure more than a Wild Card spot.

With the Angels now 11 games out and the A’s on their way to 110+ losses, we’ll take a look at the three remaining teams with a plausible path to contention:

Texas Rangers, 72-53 (lead division by 1.5 games)

The Rangers have had a share of the division lead for all but one day of the season. They’ve been in sole possession of first place going back to May 6, stretching their margin out to 6.5 games in the final week of June. Texas has allowed the gap to close in recent weeks, playing slightly below .500 ball between June and July. They rebounded to win 10 of 11 to start August but have dropped six of eight since then (including five in a row).

Texas has been far and away the best offensive team in the division. They trail only Atlanta overall in runs and all three slash stats. They’ve cooled off a bit following a scorching start, ranking eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break. Even after losing Jacob deGrom, the rotation has held up remarkably well — and deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery couldn’t have performed much better through their respective first four starts in a Ranger uniform.

The biggest question mark, as has been the case the entire season, is the bullpen. Texas relievers rank 25th in ERA overall; they’re 24th with a 4.96 figure since the start of the second half. The front office added to the relief corps this summer, bringing in Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton. They’ve each been effective (although Chapman blew a save in last night’s extra-inning loss in Arizona) but the group has been shaky enough overall to contribute to a handful of frustrating defeats.

Texas is 9-17 in one-run contests and 2-5 in games that go to extra innings. There’s probably some amount of poor fortune baked into that mark, but it’s hard to attribute those struggles all to luck (particularly after the Rangers were a staggering 15-35 in one-run games a season ago).

Among all major league teams, only the Braves have a superior run differential to the Rangers’ +184 mark. Few teams are capable of bludgeoning an opponent the way Texas can. Can they lock down enough tight games to hold off their two top competitors?

Houston Astros, 71-55 (1.5 games back of Texas, 0.5 ahead of Seattle)

The defending World Series winners entered the season as the favorites to capture another AL West crown. Yet this year’s Houston club, while very good, hasn’t played at the same level as last year’s 106-win squad.

That’s primarily a reflection of a step back on the pitching front. Last year’s club finished the regular season eighth in run scoring; they’re sixth in that regard this season. Their run prevention has regressed a bit, as they’ve dropped from second to fifth in ERA. After finishing second in the majors with a 26% strikeout rate a season ago, they’re down to ninth (at 24%) this year.

It’s certainly not a bad pitching staff — Houston is still in the upper third of the league in most categories — but injuries slowed them early in the year. Luis Garcia won’t return from Tommy John surgery. They got nothing from Lance McCullers Jr. because of persistent forearm issues. Allowing Justin Verlander to depart in free agency subtracted the defending Cy Young winner for the season’s first few months. He’s back in the fold but hasn’t been as dominant in 2023 as he was a year ago. José Urquidy missed a couple months with shoulder issues, while Cristian Javier has been inconsistent after an excellent start to the year.

Strong rookie showings from Hunter Brown and J.P. France were instrumental in keeping the club afloat while Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy were on the injured list. With Urquidy now healthy and Verlander back, Houston’s rotation again runs six deep. The lineup is nearing full strength with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez healthy and Michael Brantley on a rehab stint. First baseman José Abreu is in an uncertain spot because of a back injury, though he hasn’t produced even when healthy.

The Astros have never really had a chance to fire on all cylinders. They haven’t spent a single day with even a share of first place since losing on Opening Day. They’ve hung around, though, and they’re getting closer to trotting out the roster they’ve more or less envisioned.

Seattle Mariners, 70-55 (2 games back of Texas, 0.5 back of Houston)

The Mariners have been the hottest team in the American League over the past two months. Seattle had been remarkably average for the first few months, never winning nor losing more than four consecutive games through the end of July. Even after going 17-9 in July, the M’s trod an uncertain course at the deadline. They dealt away closer Paul Sewald to add MLB-ready but more controllable offensive help in the form of Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas. Unlike their division rivals in Arlington, Houston and even Anaheim, the Mariners didn’t make any headline-grabbing deadline acquisitions.

No matter, Seattle is an AL-best 15-4 since the calendar flipped to August. They’ve rattled off separate win streaks of seven-plus games (the latter of which is ongoing) this month. Part of the front office’s logic in trading Sewald was their confidence the bullpen was deep enough to remain excellent; the relief corps is indeed fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeout rate since the deadline.

Seattle’s rotation has been among the league’s best all year. They lead the majors in innings and rank sixth in ERA. Rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have stepped in well behind the star trio of George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. The biggest recent turnaround has been the offense. A lineup which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto frankly conceded four weeks ago was “an average major league offense” trails only Atlanta and Philadelphia in scoring this month.

After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, they lead the league in wRC+ in August. They’ve gotten contributions throughout the batting order. Of the 11 Seattle hitters with 40+ plate appearances, only Rojas has posted below-average numbers. Julio Rodríguez has arguably been the best player on the planet over the past three weeks, while Ty France and Teoscar Hernández have caught fire after previously underwhelming seasons by their standards.

All of a sudden, the Mariners are firmly within striking distance of what could be their first division title since 2001. They’ll control their own destiny into the season’s final week and a half. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed (on Twitter), Seattle’s final three series are against the clubs they’re trying to track down. They’ll finish the regular season with a three-game set in Arlington, three at home against Houston, and then four more against the Rangers at T-Mobile Park.

———————

How does the MLBTR readership envision things playing out? Which team will take home the division crown, and for good measure, how many teams from the AL West will snag a Wild Card berth?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Big Hype Prospects: Schanuel, Winn, Marte, Harrison, Salas

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We’ve reached the point of the season when prospect call-ups won’t expend their rookie status due to time spent on the roster. It’s still technically possible for such players to pass the plate appearance or innings pitched thresholds.

In any event, this marks an opportunity for teams to offer their young players time to acclimate in the Majors ahead of a Rookie of the Year bid in 2024. We saw similar with Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson last season. Let’s cover a few such players along with others on the ascent.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Schanuel, 21, 1B, LAA (MLB)
14 PA, .250/.357/.250

Schanuel was summoned by a desperate Angels club to cover for the absence of C.J. Cron. The 2023 draftee has over twice as many walks as strikeouts in limited professional action. In a perfect world, he likely would have spent more time in the minors working on achieving higher-quality contact. There isn’t a spot on the Angels roster for both Cron and Schanuel. In other words, we can expect Schanuel to return to the minors if and when Cron recovers from his lower-back tightness. Until then, we’ll see if Schanuel can learn to complement his discipline and feel for contact with better lift and exit velocities.

Masyn Winn, 21, SS, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 498 PA, 18 HR, 17 SB, .288/.359/.474

A high-probability league-average shortstop with upside for more, Winn is now 11 plate appearances into his Major League career. The well-rounded shortstop makes up for a lack of carrying traits (besides his impressive throwing arm) with an equal lack of weaknesses. There’s only one knock against him: merely adequate exit velocities. Adequacy is hardly damning praise. For a 21-year-old to possess his skills and traits means he has countless ways to take the next step from acceptability to stardom. He could do it on defense, through feel for contact, burgeoning power, speed on the basepaths, or a little bit of everything.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 389 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .281/.360/.460

Marte was one of the first prospects covered by this column last season. I noted a slight souring among evaluators who were beginning to see him as more of a core performer than a future star. His performance this season remains prime for disagreement. The surface level stats are good-not-great, and his peripherals are a mixed bag. He’s a tad prone to swinging strikes. Even so, he avoids strikeouts while showing plus discipline. He also produces exciting top-end exit velocities for a 21-year-old. Some scouts think he’s close to physically maxed out. Others see room for further growth.

Broad strokes, the outlook is similar to Winn albeit from a lesser defensive position. There are so many ways for Marte to find his way to star-caliber production. The floor resembles a Major League core performer.

Kyle Harrison, 22, SP, SFG (MLB)
(AAA) 65.2 IP, 14.39 K/9, 6.58 BB/9, 4.66 ERA

Harrison makes for one of the toughest evals in the minors. He has a feel for missing bats along with the repertoire of a high-ceilinged starting pitcher. He also happens to struggle with command and control. Of his 21 starts, Harrison reached five innings exactly once. He never faced 20 or more batters. The relief risk is ooey-gooey tangible, but the Giants have every incentive to give him more time in the rotation. Presently, Harrison is expected to join a unit consisting of Logan Webb and a handful of struggling veterans like Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, and Jakob Junis. The Giants will be playing bullpen games from here through the end of the season.

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (AA)
(A/A+) 257 PA, 9 HR, 5 SB, .257/.335/.447

At the tender age of 17 years, 2 months, and 20 days, Salas finds himself in Double-A. This latest promotion is virtually unprecedented, made all the more so because Salas hit just .200/.243/.229 in 37 High-A plate appearances. It doesn’t require an active imagination to wonder what else is going on here. Perhaps the Padres Double-A affiliate has a desirable instructor or facilities. Maybe, like a baby bird, he imprinted on one of the other players the Padres promoted to Double-A yesterday. Could a long-term contract be in the offing?

In any event, Salas is now the youngest player to grace Double-A in recent memory. He’s considered a precocious receiver with the potential to become a quality hitter too.

Three More

Carson Williams, TBR (20): The Rays promoted Williams from High-A straight to Triple-A. The move allows for Junior Caminero’s (Double-A) development to remain unaffected. Williams is 1-for-13 with two walks and six strikeouts. He’s running a 22.2 percent swinging strike rate with poor exit velocities. Note the tiny sample.

Samuel Zavala, SDP (18): Though not quite on the Salas-track, Zavala earned a promotion to High-A yesterday after hitting .267/.420/.451 with 14 home runs and 20 steals in 459 Low-A plate appearances. He has issues adjusting to pitches in certain parts of the strike zone, especially up-and-away.

Paul Skenes, PIT (21): Earlier today, the Pirates announced Skenes would join the Double-A club, skipping High-A in the process. Whether this move is in preparation for a 2023 or 2024 debut, it won’t be long before we see Skenes grace a big league mound.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

The Brewers’ Offseason Heist Is Paying Off

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When a three-team deal was announced last December that saw ten different players change hands, it was hardly surprising that Sean Murphy’s move to Atlanta received the lion’s share of the focus, particularly considering the fact that Murphy inked a six-year extension with the Braves just two weeks later. After all, rumors of the A’s looking to move on from their franchise catcher had circulated for weeks at that point and the Braves, who were coming off a 101-win season that was ultimately cut short during the NLDS, were an interesting landing spot.

Nine months later, it’s unlikely the Braves have any regrets about the deal. Murphy has taken a step forward with the bat in Atlanta, slashing a sensational .278/.387/.538 with a career-best wRC+ of 149 that when combined with his typical stellar defense behind the plate has allowed the 28-year-old All-Star to rack up 4.3 fWAR in just 87 games this season. Meanwhile, the Braves are the consensus best team in baseball with Fangraphs’ playoff odds giving the club an incredibly 26.5% chance at winning the World Series this year.

While Atlanta’s success both in this season and in landing Murphy is impressive in its own right, the Braves are not the only winner of this trade to this point in the season. Indeed, they may not even be the biggest winner of the deal so far. That’s because the Brewers, the requisite third team needed to help facilitate the deal, managed to turn their #8 prospect in outfielder Esteury Ruiz into five seasons of an All-Star catcher of their own, plus an excellent set-up man and an additional pitching prospect to boot.

En route to a breakout season with Atlanta during which he made his first career All-Star appearance, catcher William Contreras shared time behind the plate with Travis d’Arnaud while also mixing in at DH and even in the outfield. In all, he slashed an impressive .278/.354/.506 with 20 home runs in just 376 trips to the plate.

While that impressive display of power combined with Contreras’s 10.4% walk rate was enough to make him the 12th most valuable catcher in all of baseball last year, there were reasons to wonder if the youngster would be able to maintain his production going forward. Contreras’s 27.7% strikeout rate left plenty of reason for concern, as was a massive .344 BABIP. With those potential red flags signalling possible regression in Contreras’s future, it’s hardly a surprise to find that his .370 wOBA in 2022 outstripped his .347 xwOBA considerably.

Far more concerning than his offensive numbers, which were excellent for a catcher even if they regressed to match his expected numbers, was his glovework behind the plate. In 2022, Contreras was worth -7 runs per Statcast’s catcher defense metric, with negative marks in each of framing, stealing, and blocking. His framing, in particular, left much to be desired, as he landed in just the 20th percentile of all catchers in terms of catcher framing runs, with only 3 catchers in the sport posting a worse figure than Contreras’s -3 without receiving more pitches than him. Fielding Bible’s DRS agreed with that assessment, as Contreras’s -4 mark put him in the bottom 20 of all catchers last year.

With so many questions regarding Contreras’s fielding and his ability to maintain last year’s excellent offensive production, it makes perfect sense for the Braves to prefer a fully developed, surefire starting catcher in the form of Murphy. That preference created a window of opportunity for the Brewers, however, who had just lost their current starting catcher, Omar Narvaez, to free agency. The club had a history of helping bat-first catchers develop defensively, including with Narvaez himself.

This year, Milwaukee has managed to add Contreras to their list of defensive success stories behind the plate. It’s been a transformational year defensively for Contreras, as the youngster has soared to an excellent +8 runs per Statcast, with his catcher framing runs in particular leaping from -3 all the way up to +7, the seventh-best mark in the sport this year behind only defensive stalwarts like Murphy, Austin Hedges, and Jonah Heim. Once again, DRS backs up Contreras’s improvement behind the dish as well, as his +7 DRS leaves him as the eighth most valuable defensive catcher in baseball according to the metric, even clocking in ahead of Murphy.

Contreras’s defense is clearly the star of the show when discussing his year-to-year improvement, but his offensive adjustments deserve a mention as well. While he has undergone some expected offensive regression from his All-Star campaign in 2022, particularly in the power department, his current production is not only still excellent for a catcher (his 113 wRC+ ranks 6th among catchers with at least 300 PA this season) but also appears far more sustainable going forward. His BABIP has dipped to a less outlandish .327 figure, but most importantly, Contreras has cut his strikeout rate to just 20.4%, a figure that’s actually better than league average. While his walk rate has dipped slightly and he isn’t hitting for as much power this season, this new version of Contreras is posting a strong .341 wOBA that matches his .338 xwOBA, indicating a level of sustainability that couldn’t be found in last season’s power-driven numbers.

Contreras isn’t the only player the Brewers received in last year’s trade, of course. While pitching prospect Justin Yeager has managed just 2 1/3 innings of work this season while spending almost the entire year on the injured list, right-handed reliever Joel Payamps has also proved to be a revelation with Milwaukee, though not quite as impactful of one as Contreras. Payamps came to the Brewers as a solid if unexciting middle reliever, with a career 3.35 ERA and 4.19 FIP in 113 innings of work with the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Royals, and A’s.

Since joining the Brewers, however, he’s looked like a different pitcher entirely. His walk rate dipped from a career 7.6% mark entering 2023 to just 5% this season, while his strikeout rate ballooned from a career mark of just 17.6% entering the year to an incredible 29.3% figure with Milwaukee. Those improvements are seemingly thanks to a combination of across-the-board velocity gains and change in his pitch-mix to emphasis his slider. Payamps’ step forward has allowed the Brewers to rely on him as the primary set-up man to closer Devin Williams, forming a lethal duo at the back of the club’s bullpen.

As with any trade, a few months isn’t enough time to understand the full scope of the impact last year’s three-team blockbuster will have on the clubs involved. Ruiz, who has posted a wRC+ of just 81 with Oakland this year but has offered plus defense in center field and swiped a whopping 48 bags, could prove to be a valuable piece in the coming years and change the perception of the deal. True as that may be, however, Milwaukee’s front office is surely delighted with the early returns on the deal, particularly considering they control Payamps through the end of the 2026 campaign and Contreras through the end of 2027.

The Cubs’ Breakout Closer

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Adbert Alzolay wasn’t a high-profile prospect at the start of his professional career. The right-hander signed out of Venezuela in 2013 when he was 17 years old, earning a bonus of just $10K. He starting climbing the minor league ladder without getting much attention from prospect evaluators.

That changed in 2017, when he tossed 114 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A. He posted a 2.99 earned run average that year, striking out 23.3% of opponents against a walk rate of just 7.3%. Suddenly, he was the club’s #2 prospect at both FanGraphs and Baseball America going into 2018. He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2017 to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

But his ascent was about to hit some snags. In 2018, a lat strain forced him to be shut down in June. He was only able to make eight Double-A starts that year, tossing 39 2/3 innings. The next year, he missed some time due to biceps inflammation and also started to be bounced between the majors and minors. He was recalled three times that year, tossing 12 1/3 big league innings with a 7.30 ERA. In 2020, the minor leagues were cancelled by the pandemic, though Alzolay posted a solid 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in the majors.

After a few seasons interrupted by injury, roster shuffling and the pandemic, Alzolay finally got some clear runway to establish himself in 2021. Injuries were still a factor, as he made trips to the IL due to a right middle finger blister and left hamstring strain, but he was able to make 21 starts in the big leagues. Unfortunately, he wasn’t especially impressive in those, with a 5.16 ERA. His 24.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 44.9% ground ball rate were all fairly solid, but his ERA was inflated by the 24 home runs he allowed.

Going into 2022, Alzolay seemed likely to get another shot at the rotation. The Cubs were still in rebuild mode and figured to give young pitchers a chance to earn rotation spots. If Alzolay could limit the homers, the overall results would have been strong, as evidenced by his 4.02 SIERA in 2021. But he was diagnosed with a shoulder strain in March and was placed on the 60-day injured list before the season even began.

He didn’t start a rehab assignment until August and wouldn’t make his 2022 season debut until September 17. He pitched in relief down the stretch, making six appearances with a 3.38 ERA. He spoke to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic about his new role in October, expressing an openness to slot in anywhere that he could. “If my role is best out of the bullpen, being a long guy, being a guy that can throw in the eighth or close a game or whatever, I feel like I have the weapons to do that. It’s more versatility for the team and for the manager. You won’t have me every five days there, but you can have me every two or three days. I can go and throw three or four innings, or I can go and throw one inning late in the game.”

He’s been kept exclusively in relief this year and it has been a revelation. In 53 2/3 innings over 47 appearances, he has a 2.52 ERA. He’s striking out 28% of batters faced against a miniscule walk rate of 3.9%, while also keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.1% clip. His rate of fly balls turning into home runs has normalized at 8.2%, fairly close to league average. His 24.2% strikeout-to-walk ratio has him tied for 11th in the majors among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this year. Among those equal to him or better in the K/BB% department, only five of them have a higher ground ball rate. He’s done all that while taking over the closer’s role, having racked up 16 saves and six holds on the year overall.

Last month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the breakout Alzolay’s teammate Mark Leiter Jr., noting that the Cubs have avoided significant spending on their bullpen in recent years. That’s a risky strategy but one that is paying off for them right now. Their team leader in holds, Leiter, was signed on a minor league deal and they now appear to have found their closer internally. Alzolay came into this season with his service time clock at two years and 50 days. He’s crossed the three-year mark here in 2023, meaning he will qualify for arbitration this winter, with the club able to retain him all the way through the 2026 campaign.

It’s possible that he or the club might still have dreams of a returning to starting in the future, but his success this year might tempt everyone involved to keep him where he’s thriving, especially in light of his past injuries. Regardless of where things end up in the future, it’s been a remarkable journey as Alzolay has gone from an unheralded minor leaguer signed for a modest $10K bonus to now being one of the best relievers in the majors this year.

The Phillies’ Bullpen Overhaul

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For a few seasons, the Phillies’ primary concern has been the bullpen. Even last year’s pennant-winning squad succeeded largely in spite of a relief corps that finished the regular season ranked 23rd in ERA.

Philadelphia followed up its NL championship with an active offseason headlined by free agent deals for Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker. Those pacts have had mixed results in the early going, but Philadelphia has found more defined success in another area — a complete restructure of the bullpen.

Seven pitchers have thrown 30+ innings out of the ’pen for Rob Thomson on the season. Six of them were acquired since the start of last offseason. One of the offseason pickups, left-hander Andrew Vasquez, has since been designated for assignment and lost on waivers to the Tigers — though even he provided the Phils with 39 2/3 frames of 2.27 ERA ball before being cut.

Of the relievers currently on Philadelphia’s active roster, only Seranthony Domínguez was on the roster at this time a season ago. Some of that is by chance; José Alvarado is currently on the injured list and will surely reassume a high-leverage role when healthy. Yet it also hints at how aggressively the front office has turned things over.

It’s hard to argue with the results. Philadelphia relievers entered play Thursday ranked ninth in the majors with a 3.76 ERA. Their 24.9% strikeout rate ranks eighth. They’re in the bottom half of the league in blown saves. Philadelphia’s bullpen isn’t the best in the league, but it’s strong enough the front office went through deadline season without supplementing the group.

A look at some of the Phils’ bullpen upgrades since last winter:

Philadelphia rolled the dice on Kimbrel at a time when his stock was at a low ebb. The veteran righty is one of the best relievers of his generation, but his recent track record has been up-and-down. Kimbrel was excellent for the Cubs in the first half of 2021, struggled after a deadline trade to the White Sox, then had an average ’22 season with the Dodgers. While his 3.75 ERA through 60 frames last year wasn’t bad, the Dodgers were concerned enough about his performance down the stretch to leave him as a healthy scratch in the postseason.

The Phils guaranteed Kimbrel $10MM on a one-year free agent deal. They could hardly have expected better than the performance he’s turned in. Through 52 innings, he has a 3.12 ERA while locking down 19 of 21 save opportunities. Kimbrel has fanned an excellent 34.6% of opposing hitters after that mark dipped to 27.7% a season ago. He earned his ninth All-Star nod, has solidified the ninth inning, and is trending towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter.

Strahm inked a two-year, $15MM free agent pact. He has been an effective and versatile piece of the pitching staff. Pressed into rotation duty early on by injuries, Strahm was solid over nine starts. He’s been downright excellent in his traditional bullpen role. The emergence of Cristopher Sánchez and deadline pickup of Michael Lorenzen should position Philadelphia to keep Strahm in relief for the rest of the year.

Over 40 1/3 frames as a reliever, the southpaw carries a 2.68 ERA. He’s stifling opponents to a .207/.248/.407 batting line, striking out 31% of batters faced against a tidy 5.7% walk rate. Hitters are swinging through 14% of his offerings. Strahm handles hitters from both sides of the plate and has worked multiple innings out of the ’pen on 13 occasions.

The most surprising name among this group, Hoffman wasn’t technically an offseason pickup. Granted his release by the Twins at the conclusion of Spring Training, he signed a minor league pact with Philadelphia during the first week of the regular season. The veteran righty spent a month in Triple-A before triggering an opt-out clause that required the team to either add him to the MLB roster or release him.

Philadelphia chose the former option. They’re unquestionably pleased they did. Playing on a prorated $1.3MM salary, Hoffman has turned in a career-low 2.86 ERA over 34 2/3 innings. He’s striking out over 33% of opponents after never topping a 23.6% strikeout rate in any prior season. Hoffman has completely overhauled his pitch mix. His average fastball speed is up to 97.1 MPH after checking in at 94.3 MPH with the Reds last year. More importantly, he’s leaned dramatically more heavily on a slider that has become one of the best weapons in the sport.

Among relievers with 30+ innings, just 12 are inducing whiffs at a higher rate than Hoffman’s 16.6% clip. After spending the better part of two months in mop-up work, Hoffman has deservedly pitched his way into higher-leverage innings coming out of the All-Star Break. At age 30, the former ninth overall pick is showing all the traits of an impact reliever. Only adding to the appeal: Hoffman will be eligible for arbitration next winter, so the Phils can affordably keep him around for another season.

Philadelphia’s highest-profile trade pickup of the offseason, Soto has had more mixed results than any of Kimbrel, Strahm or Hoffman. His 4.73 ERA through 45 2/3 frames isn’t eye-catching. The southpaw’s underlying marks are better than the ERA would suggest, albeit not quite what the Phils likely envisioned when sending Matt Vierling, Donny Sands and Nick Maton to Detroit.

Soto has struck out a decent but unexceptional 23.4% of batters faced. He’s gotten his walk rate to a career-low 9.4% clip and is picking up grounders on a solid 48.4% of balls in play. His production has been exceedingly platoon dependent, however. Left-handed hitters have a pitiful .100/.179/.183 line through 67 plate appearances, while righties have tagged Soto for a .279/.360/.396 clip in 125 trips. He’s a useful reliever, but it’s hard not to feel there’s still some untapped upside with a lefty whose sinker averages 98 MPH. Soto is making just under $4MM this season and eligible for arbitration twice more.

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The Phils have had other more modest additions as well. Yunior Marté, picked up in a January trade with the Giants, has contributed 35 mostly low-leverage innings. Despite average peripherals, he owns a 5.14 ERA. May waiver claim Dylan Covey was tattooed in his lone start of the year but has chipped in a 2.96 ERA through 24 1/3 innings of long relief.

While those are relatively minor contributions, the Phillies turned the bullpen from a potentially serious weakness to a decent strength in a matter of months. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has faced criticism in prior seasons regarding the bullpens his front offices have put together. While it remains to be seen how this group will perform in October should the Phils hang onto a Wild Card spot, the regular season results have been quite strong — headlined by a pair of adept free agent pickups and hitting on one of the best minor league pacts of the season.

The Rangers’ Big Middle Infield Investment Is Paying Off

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The two most recent offseasons each had a batch of excellent shortstops that were available in free agency. The 2021-2022 offseason saw Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez reach the open market. That was followed by a free agent class featuring Correa again, since he opted out of his first deal after one year, along with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

Each player garnered plenty of interest and ultimately secured a guarantee above nine figures, often well above. All of the deals were among the most significant for their respective franchises and surely came with a great deal of thought and scrutiny. Deciding to spend hundreds of millions of dollars over a period of roughly a decade to one player is not something that is done flippantly. The deals still have many years remaining on them and it’s far too soon to start declaring winners and losers, but one team that must be currently thrilled with how it played this market is the Texas Rangers.

The club had been doing a lot of losing until recently. After falling to the Blue Jays in the ALDS in back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016, the Rangers entered a rebuilding period, finishing below .500 in each season after that. They seemingly got fed up with that futility and tried to press fast forward on the rebuild by spending money aggressively. That came in surprising fashion after the 2021 campaign when they nabbed two of the aforementioned star shortstops. They gave Seager $325MM over 10 years and Semien $175MM over seven, installing the latter as their everyday second baseman.

Those contracts still have a ways to go, but it’s hard to imagine them having gone much better to this point. Last year, Seager launched 33 home runs and slashed .245/.317/.455. Even with a .242 batting average on balls in play dragging him down, he still produced a wRC+ of 117, or 17% above league average. When combined with his strong shortstop defense, he was worth 4.5 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Here in 2023, he’s missed significant time due to a left hamstring strain and right thumb sprain but has been otherworldly when on the field. In just 78 games, he has 22 home runs and the BABIP wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way this year, with a .370 mark in that category. His .348/.411/.661 line amounts to a wRC+ of 190, the best such mark in the league among those with at least 350 plate appearances. He’s already at 4.8 fWAR despite not even playing half a season.

As for Semien, he was similarly BABIP’d last year, with just a .263 mark in that department. But his 26 home runs helped him hit .248/.304/.429 for a 107 wRC+. His defensive marks were quite strong, hardly surprising for a former shortstop at the keystone. His 11 Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average were both in the top five among second basemen. He also stole 25 bases and finished the year with a tally of 4.2 fWAR.

Here in 2023, he’s walking more, striking out less and his .296 BABIP is much closer to league average. His .282/.353/.472 line translates to a 127 wRC+. His 11 DRS trails only Andrés Giménez among second basemen while his 11 OAA is topped only by Thairo Estrada. He’s already at 5.0 fWAR this year with still about six weeks to go, with both him and Seager among the top seven positions players in the league this year in that category.

Those two players have been a huge reason why the club has now returned to relevancy, as the Rangers are 72-49 this year, with only three clubs around the majors currently sporting a better winning percentage. Simply buying an elite middle infield might not seem like an accomplishment to some, but spending big doesn’t always lead to a proportionate return on investment, as shown by the other players listed at the top of this article.

Correa had a solid campaign last year and returned to the open market. Though he had two deals ultimately scuttled by health concerns, he returned to the Twins on a six-year deal with a $200MM guarantee and vesting options that allow him to bank even more. But he’s hitting just .231/.308/.409 this year for a 98 wRC+ as his previously-elite defense has slid closer to league average. Bogaerts has just 12 home runs for the Padres and is hitting .272/.346/.400. His wRC+ of 109 shows he’s still above average but it’s well shy of his .300/.373/.507 line and 134 wRC+ in the previous five seasons. Turner is having the worst year of his career, currently sitting on a line of .250/.302/.394 and an 86 wRC+. Story had around league-average offense last year and required elbow surgery in the winter, only returning to the Red Sox in recent days. Báez hit just .238/.278/.393 for the Tigers last year and has a dreadful .221/.262/.320 line this year. Swanson is the only non-Ranger of the bunch who has been thriving after signing a mega deal.

As was already mentioned, we can’t start handing out awards and calling certain teams “winners” or “losers” at this point. These contracts range from six to 11 years in length, leaving plenty of time for things to change. But most clubs sign these lengthy free agent contracts hoping for excellent production at the beginning and usually expecting some painful years at the end. Many of these deals are off to rough starts and the respective players will need significant improvements in the years to come in order to stop them from looking like big busts.

The Rangers don’t have a perfect record in free agency and are plenty familiar with how big spending can backfire. They spent $185MM this winter to get Jacob deGrom, who made six starts before requiring Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until the second half of 2024 at the earliest. Their faith in Martín Pérez looks like a misstep, as they gave him a $19.65MM qualifying offer but have seen him post a 4.85 ERA this year and recently get bumped to the bullpen. But in terms of the shortstop market, they’ve obviously done quite well. It was surprising to see any club put down so much money that they were able to nab two of the big name free agents. The Rangers not only ponied up the dough, but seem to have made a wise decision on who to spend it on. Twice.

Triston Casas Has Arrived

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Red Sox fans have been waiting roughly a half decade to see whether 2018 first-round pick Triston Casas would eventually become a fixture in the lineup. The hulking 6’4″, 252-pound slugger was selected with the No. 26 overall pick that year and has ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of the past four offseasons according to both Baseball America and MLB.com.

As recently as this April, however, the early returns were looking questionable. Casas got a cup of coffee last season, hitting five homers and walking at a 20% clip in 95 plate appearances — but also hitting the ball on the ground at a whopping 56.8% clip. Not an ideal trait for a slow-footed slugger. Add in a sluggish start to this season, which saw Casas pare back that ground-ball rate but experience a large uptick in strikeout percentage (30.2% through 96 plate appearances), and it was hardly a promising start. Through his first 192 big league plate appearances, Casas batted .162/.319/.344 with an elite 18.8% walk rate and above-average but not elite power. He fanned in 27.2% of those plate appearances.

In the three and a half months since, however, Casas has not only turned things around — he’s emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-lineup bat — at least against right-handed pitching. In his past 301 trips to the plate, Casas has produced a mammoth .293/.379/.540 output with 16 home runs, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. His walk rate is “down” to 12.3% in that time, and he’s fanned at a 23.6% rate that’s only slightly north of the league average.

The biggest change in Casas’ first couple months of big league experience and this productive stretch has been one of passivity — or rather, lack thereof. From last year’s debut through early May this year, Casas swung at just 62.9% of the pitches he saw within the strike zone (and 40% of pitches overall). During his this streak of mashing at the plate, he’s swinging at 72.2% of pitches in the strike zone and 45.2% of the pitches he sees overall. He’s now swinging at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate (league average is 68.7%) but still swinging at a lower total percentage of pitches than the league-average 47.3%. That’s because Casas is rarely enticed by pitches out of the zone; he’s chased off the plate at just a 25.6% clip — more than six percentage points beneath the 31.8% league average.

As far as the quality of Casas’ contact, it’s been excellent. He was making consistent hard contact even before his early-May turnaround began, but the increased aggression within the strike zone now just means he’s making a lot more of it. Casas has averaged 91.5 mph off the bat this season (league average is 89.1 mph) and put 46.1% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more (league average is 39.3%). Statcast has classified 14.5% of his batted balls as “barreled” (16.1% during his peak productivity).

Granted, some of the breakout has been a function of Casas being shielded from left-handed pitching. Casas has clear platoon issues in his young career, hitting just .193/.343/.325 against southpaws versus .257/.357/.503 against righties. This season, he’s 219th in the Majors with just 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Sox haven’t completely eliminated his playing time against southpaws, but compare his total plate appearances against southpaws to fellow lefty-swinging teammates like Rafael Devers (148 plate appearances), Masataka Yoshida (123) and Alex Verdugo (140) — and it becomes clear that the Sox have at best been selective about the opportunities they’ll give him versus same-handed opposition.

Time will tell whether this year’s usage signals intent for long-term platooning or is just a means of building some confidence in the burgeoning young slugger. If the Sox want to platoon Casas moving forward, there’s at least one natural candidate down on the farm in 28-year-old Bobby Dalbec. Once a fairly heralded prospect himself, Dalbec has been squeezed out of the mix on the big league roster but responded with an outstanding .278/.384/.589 batting line and 30 homers in Triple-A this year. Against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a ludicrous .347/.438/.640 line. Dalbec’s future in Boston — he could potentially be a trade target for a club with eyes on giving him an everyday look this winter — is a topic worth diving into on its own, but suffice it to say he’s at least played his way into consideration for such a role. If not, the free agent market this offseason will feature right-handed bats like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano and Darin Ruf.

The Sox started Casas against southpaw MacKenzie Gore last night and left him in to face lefty reliever Jose Ferrer. (Casas went 1-for-3, singling off Ferrer.) It’s probably in their best interest to continue giving Casas opportunities against southpaws down the stretch, both to get him additional experience in left-on-left matchups and to help evaluate whether they’ll need a platoon partner for him in the long run.

Casas is still a work in progress defensively (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average), and it’s an open question just how productive he’ll end up being against left-handed pitching.  If he can narrow his platoon splits and/or make some strides on the defensive side of his game, he has star potential in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. He already looks the part against right-handed pitching, however, and Casas’ dedication to the science of hitting (check out his recent Q&A with FanGraphs’ David Laurila) should serve him well as he looks to become a more complete hitter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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