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The Astros’ Potential Outfield Surplus

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Entering the season, the outfield was an area of some uncertainty on an excellent Houston roster. Kyle Tucker is an established star in right field. The other two positions were more questionable. Before Opening Day, Houston brass has suggested they planned to divide left field and designated hitter reps between Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. As it has been for a couple seasons, center field looked to involve a battle for playing time between Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers.

Brantley’s recovery from last summer’s shoulder surgery hasn’t been as smooth as hoped. The five-time All-Star began the season on the injured list, leaving rookie Corey Julks to assume the LF/DH hybrid role alongside Alvarez. Julks has had some good stretches of play but been equally prone to extended slumps. He owns a .245/.299/.353 line in his first 86 big league contests and is currently in Triple-A.

Various setbacks have continued to keep Brantley out of action all season. When Alvarez suffered an oblique strain in mid-June — an injury that’d cost him six weeks — it looked as if the outfield and/or DH could be a problem. Not only has that not been the case, Houston’s outfield has thrived.

Since Alvarez first went on the IL on June 9, Houston outfielders are hitting .281/.370/.504 in 745 trips to the plate. They trail only the Braves’ group in on-base percentage and slugging. They’re third in on-base and sixth in slugging if one also includes DH production (where Alvarez would obviously have seen some time had he been healthy for that entire stretch).

In large part, that’s thanks to Tucker. He’ll find his name on MVP ballots for a third consecutive season. The star right fielder has raked at a .323/.410/.610 clip over that stretch and is hitting .297/.377/.526 overall. Alvarez has picked up where he’d left off since returning on July 26, putting up a .282/.378/.521 mark in 19 games.

It isn’t just the established superstars though. McCormick was a quietly productive player over his first two big league seasons and has found a new gear in 2023. Over 313 plate appearances, he owns a .288/.378/.539 batting line. Of the 215 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, McCormick ranks 18th in OBP and 12th in slugging. He has been on a particular tear of late, with a .317/.410/.593 slash since June 9.

McCormick’s strikeout and walk rates aren’t much different from his prior two seasons. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage haven’t changed and he’s unlikely to maintain a .363 average on balls in play. Yet his uptick in production isn’t entirely about batted ball fortune. McCormick is hitting for more power than he did in his first two seasons, at least in part reflecting a conscious change in his offensive approach.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently chatted with the right-handed hitter about a mechanical tweak he’d made to become more upright in his stance. The goal was to open his front shoulder slightly in order to allow him to become more pull-oriented. McCormick has always had raw power, but an extreme opposite-field approach muted some of that production. Pulled fly balls clear the fence at a much higher rate than flies to center or the opposite field. Few hitters pulled the ball in the air less often than McCormick between 2021-22. That didn’t stop him from being a good player, but it left some power potential on the table (particularly with the Crawford boxes only 315 feet down the left field line in Houston).

The change certainly seems to be paying off. His rate of pulled fly balls this season is nearly twice that of the previous two years. While he’s not hitting the ball harder overall, his average exit velocity on fly balls specifically is a personal high. The production has followed. Even if his BABIP takes a step back, McCormick should be a better offensive player than he’d been over his first two seasons and certainly looks deserving of everyday playing time.

Lately, that has mostly come in left field. Brantley could soon cut into those corner outfield reps. The veteran began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday. Barring another setback, he could rejoin the big league club within the next two weeks. Skipper Dusty Baker will likely carefully monitor Brantley’s workload to ease the stress on his shoulder, but a healthy Brantley can be a key table-setter and adds a left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Houston lineup.

McCormick can play center field, so Meyers’ playing time might be most adversely impacted by Brantley’s expected return. Meyers isn’t having a great offensive season, hitting .227/.303/.385 over 304 trips to the plate. He started the year well, but unlike Tucker and McCormick, he has struggled at the dish going back to the beginning of June. Meyers is an excellent defensive center fielder, though. In 710 1/3 innings this season, he has rated between six and eight runs better than average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast. (In his career, he’s been between 13 and 18 runs above average over 1406 frames.) Plugging Brantley in left, pushing McCormick to center, and moving Meyers to the bench should improve the lineup but will downgrade the defense.

It’s an enviable “problem” to have. Potentially juggling four starting-caliber outfielders helps Houston’s chances of tracking down their in-state rivals in a closely contested AL West. There’s likely to be some degree of concern about Brantley’s shoulder holding up down the stretch. Perhaps he or Alvarez could rotate through first base on occasion, at least while José Abreu is out. However Baker manages it, the outfield looks like a strength for the Astros as they enter the home stretch. And, with each of Alvarez (signed through 2028), Tucker (controlled through 2025), McCormick (controlled through 2026) and Meyers (controlled through 2027) standing as long-term pieces, their outfield outlook looks increasingly bright.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cody Bellinger’s Resurgent Season

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For much of the 2023 season, it’s looked as though the number of impact bats on the upcoming free agent market would be — well… minimal. Shohei Ohtani looms large over both the starting pitching and position player markets, and there’s no real consolation prize for the teams that miss out on him. Matt Chapman has been the top-ranked non-Ohtani position player on the prior installments of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings — a new version of which will be coming out in the coming weeks — but after a blistering start to the season he’s now been a roughly average hitter for the past three-plus months. He’ll still get himself a hefty contract, thanks to the composite above-average offense and plus defense, but he no longer looks like the second-best name among position players this winter.

That distinction likely falls on Cody Bellinger, whose one-year deal with has proven to be a jackpot for both him and the Cubs. The $17.5MM that Chicago guaranteed to Bellinger now looks like an unmitigated bargain by today’s market standards, and Bellinger is in prime position to trounce that this winter, provided he can remain healthy.

That’s far from a given for a player who had shoulder surgery in Nov. 2020 and has been on the injured list four times since — including a month-long absence due to a knee injury earlier this year. But, Bellinger played in all but 10 of the Dodgers’ 384 games from 2018-20 and appeared in 144 games as recently as last season. Outside of that offseason shoulder procedure, most of his injuries have been relatively minor in nature.

What hasn’t been minor is the manner in which Bellinger has rebounded at the plate this season. Bellinger debuted as a 21-year-old back in 2017 and almost immediately established himself as an MVP-caliber talent. From 2017-19, he slashed .278/.368/.559, originally playing plus defense at first base before moving to the outfield in 2019 without missing a beat. Bellinger won NL Rookie of the Year in ’17 and was crowned the league’s MVP two years later — while also winning a Gold Glove in the outfield and a Silver Slugger.

As virtually any fan knows by now, the sky seemed like the limit but clearly was not. Bellinger was an above-average but far from elite hitter during the truncated 2020 season, batting .239/.333/.455 in 243 plate appearances. That good-not-great production continued into the postseason (.212/.316/.455, four home runs), but the bigger story of Bellinger’s playoffs was the aforementioned shoulder. The then-reigning NL MVP clubbed a pivotal home run in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Braves but regrettably dislocated the shoulder while celebrating that blast with teammate Enrique Hernandez. Bellinger went 3-for-22 in the World Series — one of those three hits being another homer — and required surgery a month later.

The next two seasons were a mess. Not only were Bellinger’s days as an MVP candidate a distant memory — it was a legitimately fair question whether he was even a viable big leaguer for much of the 2021-22 seasons. In that time, Bellinger tallied exactly 900 plate appearances and turned in an awful .193/.256/.355 slash line. He still played terrific defense, particularly in 2022, and he popped 19 home runs with 14 stolen bases during the 2022 season. The Dodgers still non-tendered Bellinger, and the Cubs outbid the field with that $17.5MM guarantee — a pricey roll of the dice on a player who’d been 31% worse than league average at the plate in the two prior seasons (by measure of wRC+).

Just as Bellinger’s days as an elite hitter quickly faded from memory in 2021-22, the struggles he endured during those two years now feel like they’re squarely in the rearview mirror. Bellinger had a brief slump when he was first activated from the injured list in mid-June, but he’s been on fire for most of the summer since his return. In 371 trips to the plate entering play Wednesday, the two-time All-Star is hitting .325/.377/.551. He’s belted 18 home runs to go along with 19 doubles, a triple and 17 steals (in 20 tries). He’s posted average or better marks in center field this season and even looked sharp in a brief return to first base (176 innings).

Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Bellinger’s hit tool seems to be back to peak levels. Strikeouts were an issue in his rookie season (26.6%), but Bellinger pared that number all the way down to 16.4% during his MVP year in 2019. Following his surgery, Bellinger’s strikeout rate ballooned back to 27.1% in 2021-22. He also saw a massive spike in his chase rate on pitches off the plate (26.8% in 2019; 34.8% in 2021-22), while his overall contact rate dropped from 78.1% to 74.6%.

This year, Bellinger has punched out in just 15.4% of his plate appearances — the lowest mark of his career by a full percentage point. He’s enjoying career-best contact rates both on pitches in the strike zone (86.3%) and on pitches he chases off the plate (73.8%), leading to a career-high 81.4% overall contact rate.

While the improved contact skills and increased selectivity are unequivocally positive signs, there are some red flags that make Bellinger’s rebound appear a bit more tenuous. When he was at his best, Bellinger was a hard-contact machine, barreling the ball at an elite rate and ranking among the league leaders in batted balls at 95 mph or greater. In 2023, however, Bellinger’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity is nearly four miles per hour slower than his 91.1 mph average from 2019. This year’s 31.2% hard-hit rate is nowhere near his peak 45.6%, and his 6.4% rate of barreled balls (as defined by Statcast) sits at about half his best 12.6%.

That’s not to say Bellinger is a bad hitter or is likely to regress to his dismal 2021-22 levels of performance. His massive gains in contact and subsequent dip in strikeouts lend plenty of legitimacy to his rebound. The greater question is to what extent he can sustain this level of production with a quality-of-contact profile that’s actually below the league averages (89.1 mph exit velocity, 8.1% barrel rate, 39.3% hard-hit rate).

Statcast’s “expected” metrics are far from an exact science, but Bellinger still sits on the second-largest gap of all qualified hitters in terms of his actual batting average (.325) and expected batting average (.271). The gap between his .551 slugging percentage and expected .447 slugging percentage is the fifth-largest in baseball. Some fans may scoff at the mention of “expected” metrics, but they’ll surely factor into teams’ valuation of Bellinger over the winter (though most clubs have their own proprietary versions of such metrics which might differ from Statcast to varying extents). That said, even those expected ratios paint Bellinger as a clearly above-average hitter — roughly in line with what teammates Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have produced this season. And, given Bellinger’s past displays of plus power, there’s quite a bit more upside in his bat than either of those comparisons.

As with any free agent, there are more factors to consider than Bellinger’s bat alone. He’s played first base and center field at above-average levels this season and is obviously an option in either outfield corner as well. Couple that versatility with the fact that he can hit lefties and righties at above-average rates — he’s hitting lefties better in ’23 but has been better against righties in his career — and Bellinger allows any manager some flexibility when writing out a lineup card. This year’s average sprint speed of 28.3 ft/sec is down a bit from his peak 28.9 ft/sec from 2017-19, but it’s still well above the league average (77th percentile). Bellinger uses that speed quite efficiently, too; he’s been successful in 82.2% of his career stolen-base attempts and 85% in 2023.

Perhaps most of all in Bellinger’s case, market scarcity will work in his favor. As previously mentioned, beyond Ohtani, there aren’t many hitters of note to pursue this winter. Chapman’s bat has cooled since his blistering start. Teoscar Hernandez entered the year positioned as one of the top free agents on the market but has batted just .250/.297/.423 — the worst full-season performance of his career. Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez are having strong rebound seasons but are DH-only options. Jeimer Candelario is enjoying a rebound campaign of his own but has nowhere near Bellinger’s track record.

In terms of competition at his position, Bellinger will be going up against oft-injured defensive standouts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Both players are clear alternatives for teams seeking an everyday center fielder, though that’s due more to world-class defense than their offensive aptitude. Neither is as complete a player as Bellinger has been, and Bader has been on the IL three times this year while Kiermaier hasn’t reached 500 plate appearances in a season since 2015 (his only year ever reaching that level).

Perhaps most important of all will be age. Bellinger just turned 28 last month. He won’t turn 29 until next year’s All-Star break. Any team signing Bellinger would be paying up for more of his peak than the usual free agent has to market. Even an eight-year contract would run through Bellinger’s age-35 season. Given his age and the extent of his bounceback this year, it seems likely that he and agent Scott Boras will seek at least one opt-out opportunity in any long-term deal. He’ll surely reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, and while that won’t do his free agency any favors, the QO typically hasn’t been too great an encumbrance on the market’s very top-tier free agents.

No one is going to unseat Ohtani as the most coveted free agent of the upcoming class, but Bellinger increasingly looks like he could be viewed as the next-best position player on the market. His bet on himself has paid off in spades, and as long as he doesn’t completely collapse in the final six-plus weeks of the season, I imagine he’ll hit the market looking to top recent deals signed by George Springer (six years, $150MM), Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Whether someone actually approaches or even exceeds $200MM for a player who struggled so substantially from 2021-22 and has a somewhat spotty batted-ball profile in his rebound season remains to be seen. But the mere fact that it’s even worth considering speaks to the magnitude of his rebound campaign at Wrigley.

Big Hype Prospects: Mayo, Encarnacion-Strand, Thorpe, Hampton, Caminero

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This week, we look at prospects who are among the top minor-league performers — a few of whom have struggled lately. Let’s skip Jackson Holliday.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 450 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .283/.393/.560

While Mayo’s seasonal line is impressive, he’s scuffled to a .205/.291/.420 triple-slash in 103 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s still impacting the ball with Major League-caliber exit velocities. The big difference between Double-A and Triple-A is BABIP. This isn’t a write-it-off-as-luck situation. Mayo makes a lot of pulled, fly ball contact. He’s the sort of hitter who might be prone to low BABIPs in the Majors. He’s always been a high-BABIP guy in the minors which is actually a classic sign that the hitter isn’t being challenged at the level. Perhaps Mayo is finally feeling some pain. He’ll likely make a couple small adjustments and resume hitting at an above-average level. We might witness similar growing pains when he’s eventually summoned to the Majors.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B, CIN (MLB)
91 PA, 3 HR, .250/.308/.381

Speaking of growing pains, Encarnacion-Strand has reverted to his previous poor discipline in his first taste of the Majors. While his average contact is impressively firm, he’s not getting to the top end of his power range – at least not yet. Presently, he’s both strikeout and fly ball prone. The fly balls aren’t as much a concern as they are with most prospects – it’s not called Great American Smallpark without reason. A power barrage awaits ahead for CES. In the meantime, we’re also getting a good look at the downside for this probably-volatile slugger. He produced a 1.042 OPS at Triple-A.

Drew Thorpe, 22, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 117 IP, 11.31 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 2.62 ERA

The Yankees have an obnoxious habit of developing promising-looking pitchers who struggle to make the transition between the minors and Majors. Thorpe is on pace to debut next season. In my opinion, he should rank higher on prospects lists. The rub is his velocity. He’s currently a soft-tossing southpaw with a “projectable frame.” In other words, scouts think he can add velocity. Thorpe is a command artist with a plus changeup and a slider he locates with ease. Even if the velocity never comes, he’ll give hitters fits as a reliever. Nearly all of the above stats were accrued in High-A.

Chase Hampton, 22, SP, NYY (AA)
95.2 IP, 12.51 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.86 ERA

Evaluators prefer Hampton to Thorpe because he more closely resembles the classic workhorse. He’s already pushing for Top 50 prospect status on Baseball America’s list. Hampton has a five-pitch repertoire featuring four average or better offerings and a platoon-changeup. He’s able to use his four-seam, cutter, or slider as his primary pitch, depending on the matchup. His curve offers a change of pace for right-handed hitters, and he commands everything well. Hampton has met some challenges in Double-A (4.90 ERA, 4.02 xFIP). It’s possible he’s running out of steam in his first full professional season.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 400 PA, 21 HR, 4 SB, .322/.380/.565

Caminero draws heavy hype among the fantasy prospect ranking crowd for his precocious power output. Traditional evaluators are slowly approaching the same level of excitement. Baseball America ranks him fifth in the league. The missing ingredient is plate discipline, but he’s shown modest signs of improvement at Double-A. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of this profile until I see it perform in the Majors. The jump from Triple-A to the Majors is particularly large for hitters who either lack discipline or feature a high whiff rate. Caminero checks both boxes. So did Fernando Tatis Jr. That’s not to say they’re similar athletes, only that an expectedly “tough” transition can be easier for some players than others.

In any event, don’t be surprised if Caminero stalls out for a few years before finding his stride in the Majors. The Rays have a knack for putting their players in situations where they thrive. See their development of Josh Lowe.

Three More

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): One of the top-performing breakout power hitters, Ortiz is a slow-footed, left-handed first baseman who takes massive hacks. He’s produced 26 home runs in 350 plate appearances on the season, mostly at High-A. He profiles as a future 30-homer slugger with a strikeout problem.

Heston Kjerstad, BAL (24): A late-bloomer by today’s heady standards (and due to missed time), Kjerstad is posting MLB-caliber exit velocities in Triple-A along with a .383 BABIP. This is a function of approach, not luck. Even so, we usually see these line-drive boppers lose their BABIP fuel upon matriculating. Kjerstad projects as a league-average corner outfielder.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, MIN (20): Expected to eventually move from center field, Rodriguez has more than enough bat to survive in an outfield corner. He’s a discipline-forward slugger who verges on passivity. He’s walked in more than 20 percent of plate appearances as a professional. He’ll need to learn more selective aggression against higher-quality pitchers.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Poll: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?

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The outlook for the Mets has completely changed in recent months. They spent heavily this winter, running up the highest payroll in major league history, and came into the season as World Series contenders. Unfortunately, they struggled to get into a groove in the early parts of the season and decided to sell at the deadline. Not only did they flip rental pieces like Tommy Pham and David Robertson, but also guys who could have helped the 2024 club like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Mark Canha.

After being traded to the Rangers, Scherzer spoke publicly about how he was given the sense that next year “is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year,” with the aggression dialed back a bit. Owner Steve Cohen addressed that situation the next day, essentially confirming Scherzer’s framing by saying that the 2024 club “won’t be as star-studded” as this year’s team. He did say that he hopes the team will still be “very competitive” and that this “doesn’t mean we’re not going to bring in free agents,” but it seems the plan is to step back.

Now that the deadline has passed, the club can’t make any more trades for the next few months, but it’s possible they could resume their selling in the offseason. Starling Marte will still have two years remaining on his contract after this one, with salaries of $19.5MM in each season. José Quintana will have one year and $13MM left on his contract. Omar Narváez is a lock to trigger his $7MM player option and Adam Ottavino seems like he’ll exercise his at $6.75MM as well. The club has a $6.5MM option for the services of Brooks Raley in 2024. Trevor Gott has one year of control and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $1.2MM salary.

If the Mets are looking to continue down the path they picked at the deadline, trading veterans for prospects and eating money to get a better return, any of those players could be a candidate for such an approach. Some of those cases will present the club with difficult decisions, but the most challenging will be their choice of how to handle Pete Alonso. He is making $14.5MM this year and is eligible for one more arbitration raise in 2024, before he’s slated for free agency.

Alonso, 28, is obviously an incredibly talented hitter. From his 2019 debut to the present, he’s hit 180 home runs, including 34 this year. His career batting line of .255/.343/.533 is 37% better than league average, according to wRC+. His home run tally in that stretch is the highest in the majors and that wRC+ places him just outside the top 10 among qualified hitters.

With the Mets looking to ease off the gas pedal in 2024 and Alonso slated for the open market after that campaign, the club will have to pick a lane. They could pursue trades in the offseason, though doing so would come with the negative public relations hit of moving on from a homegrown star player, as Alonso was drafted by the Mets in 2016. They could also try to sign Alonso to a long-term extension, though he would have to agree to any such pact.

The Mets could also kick the decision down the road and see how things go in 2024. It doesn’t seem like they will be giving up all hopes of contention. As Cohen said, it seems they will likely still bring in some free agents and see how things go next year. The club could hang onto Alonso until next year’s deadline, see if the baseball gods are any kinder to them and pick a lane at that point. Even if they held onto to him all the way through 2024 and took a shot at contending, they could recoup a draft pick by extending him a qualifying offer at that point. That path would come with some risk, as Alonso could always suffer an injury or a downturn in performance, causing his trade value to drop.

The path of pursuing a trade this offseason would certainly lead to the club finding many suitors. They will only be marketing one year of his services but the free agent crop of position players in incredibly weak this winter, with the class far heavier on the pitching side. Alonso will be making a hefty salary which could eliminate some suitors, but the Mets haven’t been shy about swallowing money in order to facilitate deals, sending more than $35MM to the Rangers in the Scherzer deal.

The Mets certainly have the resources to get an extension done, though it’s unclear how much appetite they would have to get one done with Alonso. Cohen recently called him “an integral part of the Mets” and hoped they can “work things out” on a long-term deal, but their plan to dial back their spending might clash with that. They already have significant long-term deals on the books for Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil, which means they already have over $100MM on the books as far out as 2026.

If the Mets are focused on building up their pipeline of young talent and assessing the future before charting their next big moves, will they want to add a massive deal for Alonso to the pile when that will surely require a nine-figure outlay of some kind? There’s also the question of how his defense will age, since he’s not a star in that department as it is. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a passable +3 grade for his career, but Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at -2.9 with Outs Above Average at -16. A long-term deal would come with the risk of him sliding into DH-only status over time.

Perhaps another factor will be the development of the prospects they have recently added to the system. Ryan Clifford, acquired from the Astros in the Verlander deal, can play the outfield corners but has spent more time at first base this year. He has yet to reach Double-A but the Mets surely acquired him in the hopes that he would be a part of a future championship core at some point down the line. Perhaps they would prefer to track his development before deciding on how to proceed with Alonso.

Until the Mets either trade Alonso or get an extension done, his in-between status is likely to be one of the biggest storylines this offseason. What do you think is the path they should take? Put him on the trading block and continue loading the farm system for future success? Lock him up so that he can be a part of the next competitive window? Or wait until the 2024 deadline, when they will have more information about their own competitive chances and the development of their prospects?

Have you say in the poll below. (Link to poll for app users)

The Marlins’ Quartet Of Lefty Relievers

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Heading into the 2023 season, most fans would’ve expected the NL East to contain at least three legitimate playoff contenders. Few, however, pegged that trio to include the Braves, Phillies and … the Marlins. Conventional wisdom said that the Mets’ $350MM+ payroll, the Braves’ perennial excellence and the Phillies’ 2022 World Series appearance made them the teams to watch in the division. But, here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56 on Aug. 9 and tied with the Cubs for a share of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

Much of that success has been attributable to Miami’s strong showing in one-run games. At 26-10 in such contests, the Marlins have been baseball’s best team by a wide margin. Their .722 winning percentage in one-run contests leads the Brewers (21-10, .677) and Orioles (20-11, .645) and is rather comfortably the best in the game. Heck, as I was writing this, the Marlins won another one-run game, thanks to some late heroics from deadline acquisition Josh Bell and the underrated Bryan De La Cruz.

There are certain traits that make a team likely to compete and succeed in large number of closely contested games. A lineup that struggles to score runs in bulk and is heavily reliant on station-to-station baseball — as if the case in Miami — is bound to play in a lot of close games. That’s been an apt description of the Marlins so far in 2023; they entered play Wednesday 26th in MLB with 465 runs scored and 27th with 106 home runs.

A strong bullpen that’s capable of holding the too-often narrow leads afforded to the pitching staff is also a key factor in mastering one-run victories. Again, that’s been the case in Miami for much of the season. While the Marlins shook up their bullpen prior to the deadline, swapping out Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez (an exchange of struggling change-of-scenery candidates) and trading a pair of prospects for David Robertson, the Marlins have generally had a solid relief corps in 2023. Or rather, they’ve had a strong top half of a top-heavy bullpen. Adding Robertson to help deepen the group makes the team better, to be sure, but Miami was already had a strong bullpen group thanks in large part to a quartet of left-handers whom they acquired at virtually no cost.

Chief among that group is hard-throwing 29-year-old Tanner Scott. Long one of the most touted arms in the Orioles’ farm system, Scott was traded to Miami alongside righty Cole Sulser just before Opening Day 2022. The O’s deserve plenty of credit for the team they’ve put together, but this swap is probably one that Baltimore GM Mike Elias would like back. The Fish landed Scott and Sulser in a trade that sent a trio of low-level minor leaguers — Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera — to the Orioles. None of that trio ranks among the Orioles’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs.

Sulser has already departed the Marlins organization — the D-backs claimed him on waivers last November — but Scott has emerged as one of the best lefties in the game. His power arsenal was always tantalizing, but Scott’s lack of command continually proved frustrating for the O’s. That continued into the 2022 season, his first in Miami, but the 2023 campaign has been another story. After logging a 4.31 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and ghastly 15.9% walk rate last year, Scott is now touting a 2.80 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate and a vastly improved 10% walk rate. Yes, it’s still too many free passes, but he’s improved it as the season has gone on. Over his past 32 frames, Scott has walked only 7% of his opponents.

Scott entered play Wednesday with a mammoth 17.2% swinging-strike rate and 36.2% chase rate — and that’s before he struck out the side against the Reds in this afternoon’s inning of work. There are only three pitchers in baseball who’ve thrown 50-plus innings and have a higher swinging-strike rate. Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, either. He’s piled up 22 holds and a pair of saves, and only four qualified relievers top him in terms of win probability added (WPA). The Fish are paying him a bargain $2.825MM this season and control him through the 2024 season.

Many clubs would be thrilled to simply have one quality southpaw of this caliber, but the Marlins are deeper than any club in MLB when it comes to lefty relievers. Scott might be the biggest name of the bunch, but the Fish are swimming (sorry, sorry) in quality southpaws. Andrew Nardi might be the most anonymous member of the group, but he’s been nothing short of outstanding this season.

A former 16th-round pick by Miami, Nardi had an inauspicious MLB debut in 2022, pitching 14 2/3 innings but allowing 16 runs in that time. Few fans looked at him and saw a breakout candidate, but in 39 2/3 innings this year, he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s been limited by a triceps injury this summer but was reinstated from the IL earlier this month and is back working in a high-leverage capacity. Since picking up his first big league save back on May 7, he’s pitched to a 1.80 ERA with a 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 25 innings. He’s grabbed eight holds and a pair of saves along the way — and both numbers would be higher had he not spent a month on the injured list in that span.

Nardi’s 14.3% swinging-strike rate is excellent, and his 35% chase rate is even better. Virtually no one can square up the ball against the 24-year-old; he sits in the 99th percentile of big league pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in overall hard-hit rate. Nardi doesn’t even have a year of Major League service yet, so the Marlins can control him all the way through the 2028 season, and he won’t even reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign.

There’s also 32-year-old Steven Okert to consider — a gem unearthed in minor league free agency. The left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and, at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball under his belt — all coming from 2016-18 with the Giants. In three seasons with Miami, Okert has graduated from a generic depth signing to a stalwart member of a talented relief corps. He’s logged 129 1/3 innings with a 2.85 ERA since relocating to South Florida, punching out 30% of his opponents against a 10.6% walk rate.

Again, the walks are a bit too high, but it should be noted that Okert has boosted his strikeout rate to a career-high 33.5% in 2023 while dropping his walk rate to 9% — his lowest mark in three years with the Fish. His velocity has ticked up each season, and the Marlins have scrapped three of his five pitches, turning him solely into a four-seam/slider reliever. Okert pitches more in the middle innings than Scott and Nardi, but he’s still picked up 10 holds. The results are outstanding, and he can be controlled cheaply for three years beyond the current season. Not too shabby for someone signed to a minor league deal three offseasons ago.

Left-hander A.J. Puk might be the most recognizable name of the bunch, thanks to both his lofty draft status (No. 6 overall in 2016) and his inclusion in a reasonably high-profile trade this offseason (sending former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday back to Oakland). Puk’s 4.62 ERA is by far the least impressive of the group, but the underlying numbers are far more impressive. He’s fanned 30.9% of his opponents against just a 4.9% walk rate while recording a swinging-strike rate just shy of 15%. Puk had a sub-3.00 ERA himself in early June before a rough patch that saw him allow runs in six of nine appearances. He’s since rebounded with four straight scoreless outings, whiffing five hitters without issuing a walk in 3 1/3 innings.

Puk has been hampered by a .337 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 63.1% strand rate, prompting metric like FIP (3.41) and SIERA (2.66) to cast a far more favorable light on the lefty than his earned run average does. Puk certainly wasn’t flawless in serving as the Marlins’ primary closer — 15-for-21 in save opportunities — and that, coupled with his rough stretch last month, might have nudged Miami to acquire Robertson. That said, lefties who average 96 mph don’t grow on trees, and Puk’s blend of elite strikeout and walk rates signals better days ahead.

In fact, Marlins relievers as a whole are among the best in baseball when it comes to both piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes. Each of the four lefties profiled here rank in the top 10 of all qualified relievers in terms of differential between strikeout rate and walk rate (i.e. K-BB%). The Marlins are sixth in all of baseball as a collective group in that category, and adding Robertson for the final two months of the season should help them out.

There are plenty of reasons for the Marlins’ success this season. Luis Arraez’s surefire batting title, big steps forward from Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, a dominant debut season from Eury Perez and a rebound effort from Jorge Soler have all helped drive this unlikely playoff push. But heading into the season, few would’ve pegged the Marlins to receive this type of output from their left-handed bullpen corps. Add in the fact that they came to the organization via a minor league deal, a 16th-round pick, and trades sending out three marginal prospects and a former first-rounder who’s still struggling in Oakland — and the core of this bullpen is even more impressive. They’ll all return for the 2024 season at least, and with Robertson helping lead the charge down the stretch in ’23, the Marlins will continue to be dangerous in tightly contested games.

The Twins’ Breakout Rookie

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The Twins have rattled off five consecutive wins, pushing themselves a season-high six games above .500. Paired with the Guardians dropping eight of their last 10, Minnesota has stretched their lead in the AL Central to 5.5 games. All of a sudden, only the Braves have a larger cushion at the top of a division.

That’s somewhat a reflection of an otherwise dismal AL Central, of course. Yet Minnesota has a 19-12 record since the start of June and the sixth-best run differential overall (+53) among American League clubs. They’re playing like a legitimate playoff team.

Among the reasons for Minnesota’s improved production of late: a somewhat quiet building case for Rookie of the Year consideration. Edouard Julien owns a .299/.389/.512 batting line through his first 235 plate appearances. Among the 43 first-year players with 200+ trips to the dish, none is reaching base at a higher clip. Only Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Yainer Diaz and Luke Raley have a better slugging mark.

Julien has only played 65 games, roughly three-fifths of the action logged by the likes of Josh Jung and Gunnar Henderson. He’d be behind that duo in Rookie of the Year consideration if the season ended today. There’s a chance for Julien to close that gap in the season’s final couple months (particularly with Jung set to miss six weeks thanks to a thumb fracture that’ll require surgery).

Award consideration aside, the more meaningful development is the introduction of a middle-of-the-order caliber bat into Minnesota’s lineup. That didn’t come out of nowhere. The lefty-swinging Julien had been regarded as one of the more talented offensive players in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. There’s some amount of uncertainty with any prospect before they get exposure to big league pitching, though, and Julien has only 38 games of Triple-A experience under his belt.

The 24-year-old hasn’t had any issues against MLB pitching thus far. His results in the minors had been built on power and an extremely patient plate approach. He’s showing the same profile at the MLB level. Julien almost never chases pitches off the plate; his 18.9% swing rate on offerings outside the strike zone is lowest among all MLB hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Julien is swinging at pitches within the zone at a roughly average clip. That’s generally the approach one would want to see from a hitter, particularly a rookie — patient without getting too passive.

Julien’s comfort working deep counts is naturally going to come with a fair number of strikeouts. There’s also just some swing-and-miss in his game; he’s made contact on 72.2% of his swings, roughly four percentage points below the 76.4% league average. Julien will probably strike out too often to be a .300 hitter. His .410 average on balls in play is bound for some regression.

There’s no need for Julien to run a near-.300 average to be a productive player, though. He’s going to work plenty of walks to keep his OBP floor high. Prospect evaluators have credited him with above-average to plus power potential. Julien has shown that at the MLB level, connecting on 10 homers with a quality 42.9% hard contact percentage.

The remaining concern in Julien’s offensive profile is probably his limited track record against same-handed pitching. The Twins have shielded him against southpaws, keeping him to 29 MLB plate appearances thus far. In 2022, he had marked platoon splits in Double-A. Julien hit .332/.465/.566 against righties in the minors last season compared to a .210/.373/.276 showing versus left-handers.

For now, the Twins are happy with a rookie who’s mashing right-handed pitching. The Twins have struggled as a team against southpaws, but they have Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and switch-hitting Willi Castro on hand as righty-capable infielders who can take some pressure off Julien in the short term.

Moving forward, the bigger question is where Julien fits best defensively. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a well below-average defender at second base, where he’s spent the majority of his professional career. Public metrics have panned his work over his first 366 MLB innings at the keystone.

The Twins have lived with the subpar middle infield glove to inject more life into the offense. Julien’s two promotions have been in response to injuries to Jorge Polanco. The latter is now healthy, but the Twins reshuffled their infield to keep Julien in the lineup. Polanco has started four times at third base since being reinstated from the IL on July 28, his first work at the hot corner in seven years.

Whether Minnesota feels that’s a long-term option remains to be seen. The Twins could welcome Royce Lewis back from an oblique strain within the next couple weeks. The former first overall pick has battled myriad injury issues throughout his career but been a productive player whenever healthy. Lewis is probably ticketed for regular run at the hot corner when he returns. That could push Polanco back to the keystone and perhaps move Julien into a primary designated hitter capacity.

That’d enable Minnesota to cut into the playing time of Joey Gallo, who is hitting .156/.276/.349 since an excellent first month. Beyond this season, Julien’s emergence figures to only raise more questions about the possibility of subtracting a left-handed bat to add more lineup balance. Gallo’s impending free agency will remove one player from the group, while the club will have a net $9MM option decision on Max Kepler.

If they’re comfortable with Julien as a tolerable (if fringy) defender at second base, that could lead to an interesting question on Polanco’s future. Minnesota can bring the veteran infielder back on a $10.5MM option. That’s solid value — before this year’s injury-plagued season, Polanco was one of the league’s better offensive second basemen — but could make him a potential trade candidate. The Brewers, for instance, exercised an option on Kolten Wong before dealing him to Seattle last offseason.

Those are decisions the Minnesota front office could weigh three months from now. In the interim, they’ll be thrilled with Julien’s excellent start to his career. Wherever he plays, he looks like an impact piece in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching. The Twins are in pole position for a division title after a disappointing 2021-22 stretch, in part because of their hot-hitting rookie.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Gilbert, Eder, Clifford, Watson, Made

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Last week, we broke down the early trade deadline deals. Let’s finish things up. For the smart alecks in the audience, we are relaxing our definition of “big hype” to accommodate timely analysis.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Drew Gilbert, 22, OF, NYM (AA)
(A+/AA) 321 PA, 12 HR, 10 SB, .277/.367/.461

Acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, Gilbert looks the part of a future core-performing outfielder. The Astros took him with the 28th pick of the 2022 draft, and he’s already within spitting distance of the Majors. The overall profile doesn’t read as particularly impactful, instead filling a high-floor, modest-ceiling bucket. While that isn’t an exciting review of Gilbert’s skills, he’s still viewed as a Top 100 prospect with some support for a Top 50 ranking. High-probability 2-WAR athletes are widely coveted around the league. Defensive reviews vary. Some evaluators prefer him in a corner, but he seemingly has the skills to stick in center if a better defender isn’t already on hand.

Jake Eder, 24, SP, CWS (AA)
(A/AA) 41.1 IP, 10.9 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.35 ERA

The return for Jake Burger, Eder was on the fast track in 2021 before requiring UCL replacement. He was well on his way to a Top 25 prospect ranking. Alas, his stuff has backed up since returning, and his command shed a grade as well. At his best, the southpaw had a carrying fastball, a lethal slider, and a show-me changeup. Reports indicate he’s lost his arm slot which affected his stuff. He’s also lost velocity, further diminishing his stuff. More distance from surgery could be the cure.

If he’s in search of development, my contacts recommend he follow Lucas Giolito’s lead and seek help from a third party. His new org is not well-regarded by outside evaluators. There’s now considerable relief risk – and not necessarily sexy high-leverage kind. Still, he was among the best pitchers on the planet only a few years ago. He could yet recover.

Ryan Clifford, 19, 1B/OF, NYM (A+)
(A/A+) 320 PA, 19 HR, 4 SB, .284/.394/.513

The other piece of the Verlander trade, Clifford might turn out to be the best hitter dealt at the deadline – assuming he connects enough to catch on at higher levels. He’s a slow runner, and he struggles against fastballs at the top of the zone. Considering even most sinkerballers have a high fastball in their repertoire these days, it’s not a great time to bring that Pat Burrell swing back to the Majors. That said, he punishes anything low in the zone, including breaking balls. Power is Clifford’s carrying trait. If he ever maintains a permanent Major League role, it will be on the back of 30-homer power.

The Astros had him working on his passivity at High-A, and it seemed to be going well. We’ll see how the Mets approach his development.

Kahlil Watson, 20, SS, CLE (A+)
255 PA, 7 HR, 14 SB, .203/.333/.364

One of the top prep shortstop prospects in the 2021 draft, Watson’s development has stagnated in the Marlins system. Inconsistent strike zone judgment and a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate are to blame. The Guardians are known for their love of disciplined, contact-oriented athletes. Ostensibly, they know how to train these traits. There are fully substantiated reports regarding his makeup – you can google them if you want – which the Guardians will need to address. It’s fair to remember not every 20-year-old athlete is an old soul with a zen attitude. Some guys are fiery and later learn to channel it. In any event, Watson’s athleticism remains on display. He should be considered extremely raw.

Kevin Made, 20, SS, WSH (A+)
300 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .240/.328/.355

In recent years, we’ve gotten used to watching meteoric rises within every farm system. The business of prospecting is booming. Still, some guys take a longer path to the bigs. Made looks like one of these. He’s an able defensive shortstop who should remain at the position. Tool grades on his bat generally come in around the 45- to 55-grade range. He has plus discipline without the usual case of passivitis. There’s a high probability utility man floor here with potential for a starting role – likely of the second-division variety. For now, he needs to mature into more physicality without losing a step.

Three More

Nick Nastrini, CWS (23): Sent to the White Sox in the Lynn/Kelly trade, Nastrini features two above average breaking balls and a quality heater. He’s a fly ball pitcher with below average command. I view him as a future reliever, but plenty of better evaluators give him a shot at sticking in the rotation.

Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): Lee has hit at every stop. His defensive limitations – he’s a second-baseman only – and modest pop lead to an awkward fit in the current meta. At the top end of the spectrum, comparable defenders like Luis Arraez and Edouard Julien hit enough to force their way into the lineup. By the time Lee is ready, Detroit will have some practice with this defensive profile courtesy of Colt Keith.

Sem Robberse, STL (21): Robberse doesn’t turn heads, but he has all the traits teams look for in under-the-radar innings eaters. He features a plus changeup and a deep repertoire of otherwise slightly below average offerings. His command has potential to be plus and will help decide how far he travels along a Zach Eflin-like path.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

How To Acquire Players After The Trade Deadline

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Not long ago, every August at MLBTR kicked off by reminding longtime MLB fans (or explaining to new fans) how the dizzying rules regarding August trade waivers worked. It was a convoluted process — one that saw nearly every player in the league placed on revocable trade waivers at some point (heavy emphasis on “revocable”) — but one that front offices increasingly used as creative means to pull off significant acquisitions after the supposed “deadline.”

In reality, under the old rules, the first “trade deadline” was never the actual deadline — it just wasn’t as catchy to use the full term, “non-waiver trade deadline.” As time progressed, the month of August increasingly served as a means of swapping out higher-priced talents in waiver trades that were still quite noteworthy. If you’re seeing Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and others change hands in late August, just before the deadline for postseason eligibility, then was the non-waiver deadline really a trade “deadline” at all? Not so much.

Back in 2019, Major League Baseball opted to quash the ever-growing process of August roster reconstruction. The league put an end to waiver trades that often served as a means of teams hitting the “eject” button on notable contracts and saw larger-payroll clubs take on those deals simply because they possessed the financial wherewithal to do so. MLB implemented a more concrete “true” trade deadline that prohibited players on Major League contracts — or any who had previously been on Major League contracts earlier in the season (i.e. since-outrighted players) — from being traded after the deadline.

Does that mean teams can no longer acquire new players or address injuries as they arise? No, but their avenues to do so are substantially narrower. Here’s a look at how Major League front offices can still augment their roster now that the “true” trade deadline has passed:

1. Trades!

Wait, what? I thought we just–

Yes, we did. But it turns out that the “true” trade deadline is really only the “true” trade deadline for Major League players! Fun how that works, right? In all likelihood, you’ll still see several players change hands this month, they just won’t be very exciting. But, veterans who’ve been playing the entire season on a minor league contract and haven’t at any point been added to the 40-man roster or been on the Major League injured list are still fair game to be traded.

Will you see any huge, blockbuster names flipped? Of course not — but there are still some recognizable names eligible to be traded. The Tigers have Matt Wisler (4.40 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate in 47 Triple-A innings) and Johan Camargo (.263/.346/.456) in Triple-A. Matt Adams is hitting .280/.336/.488 with 13 homers against right-handed pitching for the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate. Looking for some outfield defense and speed off the bench? Bradley Zimmer is with the Red Sox’ Triple-A club and hasn’t yet been on a 40-man roster this year. Those veterans — and many others — are eligible to be traded, so long as any player(s) going back the other way have also not been on a 40-man roster or Major League injured list. Of course, it’s common for August deals to be simple cash swaps, as well.

Last August didn’t feature much in the way of trades, though the Giants did acquire Lewis Brinson and quickly give him a big league look. The Phillies picked up right-hander Vinny Nittoli in a trade as well, and he pitched a pair of shutout innings for them in September. A year prior, the slate of trades saw a handful of recognizable names dealt: Delino DeShields (twice!), Brad Peacock, Dustin Garneau, Mallex Smith, John Axford and Andrew Vasquez were all on the move for either marginal prospects or cash.

Just to speculate a bit — and we haven’t really seen this in the past, but it’s technically possible  — teams technically can engineer minor league trades, so long as the players involved have not been on the 40-man roster at any point in a given season. It’s doubtful we’ll see any top prospects change hands in this regard, but it’s not expressly forbidden, either.

And, just to rain on your parade, no — teams cannot game the system using players to be named later. The rules pertaining to the “true” trade deadline made sure to include the following language:

“The Commissioner’s Office will prohibit any transaction (or series of transactions) that, in the judgment of the Commissioner’s Office, appears (or appear) designed to circumvent the prohibitions of Rule 9(b).”

Nice try, folks, but don’t get your hopes up.

Just remember, anyone acquired after Aug. 31 isn’t postseason-eligible with his new club, so minor swaps of any relative note will likely take place before the calendar flips to September.

It won’t lead to any exciting trades, but we’ll likely still see some trades this month. You’ll just have to wait until the offseason for the chatter on Dylan Cease, Salvador Perez, Corbin Burnes and others to fire back up in earnest.

2. Outright and Release Waivers

Revocable trade waivers are no longer a thing, but regular old outright waivers and release waivers are alive and well. Any time a player is designated for assignment now, the team’s only recourse will be to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. At that point, the other 29 teams will have the opportunity to claim that player … and the entirety of his remaining contract. Of course, a team doesn’t need to announce a DFA or even announce that a player has been put on waivers. It’s fairly common for a team to just announce that a player cleared waivers and was outrighted to a minor league affiliate without ever publicly declaring a DFA.

An important reminder on waivers now that it’s the primary means of acquiring talent from another organization: waiver priority is determined based on overall record (worst record to best record) and, unlike the now-retired “revocable trade waivers,” is not league-specific. If the A’s want right-hander Joe Barlow, whom the Rangers designated for assignment upon acquiring Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton, they’ll have first dibs. The Royals would be up next, followed by the Rockies, then the White Sox, then the Nationals, Cardinals and Tigers — and so forth.

Teams who didn’t find sufficient interest in veteran players prior to the trade deadline and thus held onto them could eventually place those players on outright waivers in August, hoping another club will claim said player and simply spare the waiving team some cash. This is likelier to happen late in the month — when there’s less cash owed on those veteran contracts. For instance, in 2022, the Giants claimed Jose Quintana from the Angels and the Reds claimed Asdrubal Cabrera from the D-backs. This could also be viewed as a means of granting a veteran player on a non-contender the opportunity to join a postseason race.

As with any minor league trades, players claimed off waivers will only be postseason-eligible with their new club if claimed before 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31.

3. Sign Free Agents

Same as ever. Anyone who gets released or rejects an outright assignment in favor of free agency will be able to sign with a new team and, so long as the deal is wrapped up prior to Sept. 1, they’ll be postseason-eligible with a new team. It’s certainly feasible that a once-productive veteran enjoys a hot streak with a new club or fills a useful part-time role.

No team is going to claim the remaining money on the contracts of Trey Mancini or Kolten Wong, both of whom were designated for assignment yesterday. But once the pair clears waivers and is inevitably released, a club looking for some second base depth could roll the dice on Wong, and a team that believes it can get Mancini back to form might be willing to take a shot on his right-handed bat. It’s a similar story with catcher Manny Pina and utilityman Josh Harrison. Willie Calhoun, who elected free agency earlier today, will probably land somewhere on a minor league deal before too long.

There will also be several veterans on minor league deals who trigger opt-out clauses and reenter the market. Dallas Keuchel, who’s pitched to a 1.13 ERA with a 61% ground-ball rate in 32 Triple-A innings for the Twins, just triggered such a clause in his deal yesterday. Minnesota has 48 hours from the time he exercised that provision to add him to the big league roster, and if not, he’s a free agent. Some other veterans will likely force teams into this same decision throughout the month.

The same postseason eligibility date applies to incoming free agents as well.

4. Scour the Independent Leagues

Roll your eyes all you want, but the Atlantic League, Frontier League and American Association (among other indie circuits) are all teeming with former big leaguers. Need a speedy fourth outfielder who can provide some late-game defense and baserunning during September roster expansion? A platoon bat off the bench? An extra southpaw to stash in the bullpen? There will be experienced names to consider.

Former Guardians top prospect Bobby Bradley has 22 homers and a .923 OPS with the Atlantic League’s Charleston Dirty Birds. Jose Marmolejos and Alex Dickerson have similarly impressive numbers with the Atlantic League’s Spire City Ghost Hounds and Long Island Ducks. Mickey Jannis, who chatted with MLBTR readers earlier this year, has a 3.55 ERA and is still chucking knuckleballs for the High Point Rockers. The Red Sox signed one of his teammates, former big leaguer Kyle Barraclough, earlier this summer.

It’s unlikely anyone finds a true impact player on the indie scene, but then again, people cracked jokes when the 2015 Red Sox signed then-35-year-old Ducks lefty Rich Hill, who’s less than 24 hours removed from being traded to his 13th big league club and is gearing up for a 20th season in the Majors next year. He’s earned nearly $80MM and tossed more than 900 innings in the Majors since joining the Red Sox under similar circumstances to the ones described here.

5. Look to Foreign Leagues

We don’t often see players return from the KBO, NPB or CPBL to sign with big league clubs midseason, but there’s precedent for it happening. There are also quite a few former big leaguers playing down in the Mexican League, creating another area for front offices to scout as they mine for depth options. Interest won’t be limited solely to former big leaguers, either. Last year, the Mariners signed lefty Brennan Bernardino after a strong nine-start run in Mexico, watched him dominate through 12 2/3 innings in Triple-A Tacoma, and selected him to the Major League roster by the end of July. He made his MLB debut with Seattle last July, was claimed off waivers by he Red Sox earlier this year, and has a 2.50 ERA in 36 frames for Boston this season. You never know.

Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Acuna, Luciano, Quero, Saggese

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The Trade Deadline seems to be happening early this year. Between the time I begin writing and this is posted, there might be more deals involving big-name prospects. This week, we’ll focus on the recently completed swaps. We’ll check back on the leftovers next time.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE (AAA)
313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442

Manzardo burst onto Top 100 prospect rankings last season with a flashy 22-homer performance in nearly 400 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He has all the traits armchair prospect analysts (like myself) crave – plus discipline, a high rate of contact, and above-average exit velocities. If there was a fly in the ointment, his combination of high BABIPs and frequent fly balls seemed untenable. This season, he’s dropped to a more plausible .269 BABIP while maintaining the fly ball rate. His 2023 numbers more closely match his identity. His power outcomes have backed up, but there’s little cause for long-term concern. Additionally, Progressive Field is friendly to left-handed power hitters. Manzardo is undersized for a first baseman, and his power draws 45 and 50 grades on the 20/80 scouting scale. The profile reads a lot like a four-inches-shorter, left-handed Rhys Hoskins.

Luisangel Acuna, 21, 2B/SS, NYM (AA)
402 PA, 7 HR, 42 SB, .315/.377/.452

Repeating Double-A after a rough first exposure last season, Acuna has looked comfortable at the level. His BABIP-fueled batting line is 21 percent above league average (121 wRC+) despite middling power numbers. Like his brother, Luisangel has terrorized opponents on the basepaths. Scouts rate him as merely an above-average runner. There is a degree of swing-and-miss (12.4% SwStr%) to Acuna’s game that calls his future role into question. He’s expected to grow into average or better power if he can learn to lift the ball more consistently. Whether or not he can do so without developing a strikeout problem could depend on the sort of adjustment required. Lift-related mechanical changes tend to exacerbate whiff issues. In some cases, the issue is the location of contact – an adjustment that can yield positive results without negative repercussions. Acuna’s swing is violent and loud. Change could prove challenging. Despite strong walk rates, Acuna is an aggressive swinger, particularly at breaking balls below the zone.

Necessary offensive adjustments aside, there’s also question about Acuna’s future defensive role. He’s a physically capable shortstop who yet lacks polish. Lately, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing shortstop prospects with precocious defensive ability. Acuna could be asked to move over to second or third to better accommodate his ascent alongside Francisco Lindor.

Marco Luciano, 21, SS, SFG (MLB)
(AA) 242 PA, 11 HR, 6 SB, .228/.339/.450

The only member of today’s column who wasn’t traded, the Giants rushed Luciano to the Majors to cover a short-term opening at shortstop. Despite tepid overall numbers at Double-A, Luciano caught a heater beginning in late June. He batted .315/.397/.500 over his final 63 plate appearances at the level. His success carried over to a 27-plate appearance stint in Triple-A where he batted .292/.370/.625 with Major League caliber exit velocities. He’s 3-for-11 with five strikeouts thus far in the Majors. The once uber-prospect has developed into a slug-over-contact future third baseman. His strikeout rate might check in north of 30 percent. Only 11 qualified hitters have strikeout rates above 30 percent. The good news is nine of 11 have above-average batting lines. The two who don’t – Teoscar Hernandez and Byron Buxton – are celebrated hitters. Luciano will look to join this cohort of hitters.

It’s unlikely Luciano sticks with the contending Giants in the short term.

Edgar Quero, 20, C, CWS (AA)
321 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .246/.386/.332

A switch-hitter, Quero emerged as a bat-first catching prospect last season when he hit .312/.435/.530 with 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 515 Low-A plate appearances. The Angels made the curious decision to skip him past High-A – perhaps seeking to pair him with a better defensive instructor. His discipline remained in evidence this season. The power… not so much. Another plausible explanation of Quero’s aggressive assignment is to see if he merited moving to a different position to accommodate his bat. Instead, the Angels moved him from the organization entirely in the Lucas Giolito trade. Look for Chicago to slow the roll on Quero’s development. His defensive skills are reported to remain relatively raw.

Thomas Saggese, 21, 3B, STL (AA)
418 PA, 15 HR, 8 SB, .313/.379/.512

Saggese doesn’t have the physical traits evaluators crave, but he makes up for it with a hard-nosed playstyle. Part of the Jordan Montgomery trade, it feels like he was always destined to join the Cardinals. His tools draw a collection of 40 and 50 grades, but his feel for quality contact allows the total package to play up. Multiple reports reference his success against sliders. Something to watch is how he performs against upper-level pitchers with big fastballs and command. The Cardinals might seek to add corner outfield to Saggese’s bag of tricks. He fits best at third base, is considered too short for first base, and just passes at second base. The Cards love their role players to possess a deep well of utility.

Three More

Tekoah Roby, STL (21): The prospect headliner of the Montgomery trade, Roby has a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings. His best weapon is a double-plus curve ball. He’s currently sidelined with a shoulder injury. There’s relief risk for health reasons only – the stuff and command are sufficient to project a mid-rotation role.

Marco Vargas, NYM (18): Stolen from the Marlins in the David Robertson trade, Vargas is one of the flashier talents in the complex. He’s batting .283/.457/.442 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts and a strong rate of contact. Power development will decide whether he’s viewed as a future utility fielder or core performer.

Adam Kloffenstein, STL (22): Part of the return for Jordan Hicks, Kloffenstein is a big right-hander with a limited repertoire. He tunnels a sinker and slider in a way reminiscent of Brady Singer and Brad Keller. He has a solid feel for command and projects to eat innings in an uninspiring way. He’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 89 Double-A frames.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Top 50 Trade Candidates: Deadline Edition

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Three weeks ago, MLBTR released a preliminary list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates. The top player on that list (Lucas Giolito) has already moved, as has #7 (David Robertson). Another from the top ten, Shane Bieber, suffered an injury that tanks the chances he’ll be dealt.

With a little more than 72 hours before the deadline, we’ll refresh that group. This isn’t a ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, which inherently involves subjectivity. A player in the top ten might have significantly less appeal than someone at the bottom of the list, but if they’re far more likely to be dealt for a return of note, they’ll be higher on this kind of ranking.

On to the list:

1. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals

With Giolito off the board, Montgomery is the best impending free agent starter who’s all but assured to move. The southpaw has a career-best 3.42 ERA over 21 starts with average or better strikeout (21.2%), walk (6.9%) and ground-ball (44.4%) marks. The Cardinals are openly turning their attention to 2024 and reportedly haven’t engaged Montgomery’s camp in any extension talks. The Dodgers, Rangers and Rays are among the teams that have been tied to his market, but virtually any contender with a desire to bolster the rotation would make sense. He’s making $10MM in his final arbitration season.

2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Nationals

Candelario has rebounded from a bad final season in Detroit to hit .254/.335/.478 with 16 homers in 410 plate appearances for Washington. The rebuilding Nationals have gotten more than they could’ve expected out of a $5MM free agent investment and are now positioned to cash Candelario in for young talent. He’s a switch-hitter with power and a solid plate approach. His third base defense has been up-and-down throughout his career, but he’s rating well there this season.

Playing designated hitter last night, Candelario hurt his left shoulder sliding into second base. The Nats were surely holding their breath, but Candelario said postgame he was unconcerned and would’ve been able to continue playing if his turn in the batting order came back around (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Assuming that doesn’t prove anything more than a minor scare, he should be on the move. The Marlins and Angels have reportedly had some conversations with Washington.

3. Michael Lorenzen, SP, Tigers

Lorenzen has proven an adept free agent pickup for the Tigers. He’s probably a hair below Montgomery on most teams’ preference lists, but the overall profile is similar. The righty is a rental starter who carries a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings on a bad Detroit team. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a tick below average, but he’s only walking 6.5% of opponents. A first-time All-Star, Lorenzen is playing on an $8.5MM guarantee. The Orioles, Astros, Rays and Marlins have all reportedly checked in on the Tigers’ asking price.

4. Tommy Pham, OF, Mets

The Robertson trade made clear the Mets were at least open to moving short-term assets. Pham is the most appealing of their remaining rentals. The veteran outfielder has overcome a slow start to hit .265/.347/.460 with nine homers in 259 plate appearances. He has always mashed left-handed pitching (as one would expect for a righty hitter), but he’s producing against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pham’s $6MM salary is affordable and he’s one of the better impending free agent hitters available. The Dodgers and Phillies have expressed interest, but any contender with a corner outfield need and/or a desire to add some right-handed pop would fit.

5. Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals

6. Jordan Hicks, RP, Cardinals

Montgomery is the most valuable of the Cardinals’ rentals. He’s certainly not the only player St. Louis will move in the next three days, though. Flaherty is also headed to free agency with no sign of an extension. The righty has a 4.43 ERA with average strikeout and grounder rates over 109 2/3 innings. He’s issuing a few too many walks, but he’s a capable back-end starter who has shown more than that in the past. Flaherty acknowledged after Wednesday’s start that he’d be surprised if he makes another appearance as a Cardinal (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). He’s making $5.4MM in his final arbitration season.

Hicks is one of the sport’s hardest-throwing relievers. He has pitched back into a high-leverage role with a 3.67 ERA and elite strikeout (31.2%) and grounder (58.3%) rates. While the strike-throwing is erratic, few pitchers can match this kind of stuff. Hicks and the Cardinals have talked extension in recent days, but those conversations have reportedly stalled out. Unless the sides rekindle negotiations late, he’ll be moved. Hicks is making just $1.8MM in his final arbitration season and has drawn reported interest from the Yankees, Rangers, Rays and Diamondbacks.

7. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Tigers

Perhaps no available starter is pitching as well as Rodriguez. The left-hander owns a 2.95 ERA in 88 1/3 innings. He’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents against a 6% walk rate. Rodriguez looks like the #2/3 caliber starter Detroit was targeting when they signed him to a five-year free agent deal two offseasons back.

As had been discussed ad nauseam, the complicating factor is the contract. Rodriguez is playing this season on a $14MM salary — strong value for a club given his production — but can opt out of the final three years and $49MM on the deal at season’s end. He’s likely going to do so, but a second-half injury could change that equation. Detroit has to prepare for the possibility he hits free agency and should be motivated to move him, while potential buyers have to weigh the downside associated with the opt-out clause. Rodriguez seems likely to move but it’s not as straightforward as dealing a true rental.

8. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

Carlson probably has more trade value than any other Cardinal on this list. The switch-hitting outfielder looked like a potential franchise center fielder a year ago. Yet his offense has stalled out right around league average, as he carries a .235/.333/.352 showing over 228 plate appearances. Carlson has been a good player but not the impact bat St. Louis had been expecting.

St. Louis moved him to the bench when Tyler O’Neill returned from the injured list. With O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the outfield, Carlson looks like a change-of-scenery candidate. The Cards have explored offers, with the Yankees among the teams known to have interest. Still 24 and with three and a half seasons of remaining control, Carlson has a lot of appeal, even if it’s not at the same level as it would’ve been a few months ago.

9. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

There have been surprisingly few ties to Barlow since Kansas City expressed an openness to offers two months ago. That’s presumably more a reflection of Royals’ brass playing things close to the vest than a lack of interest. The 30-year-old righty is an appealing trade target for contenders, even if his 5.50 ERA over 37 2/3 innings wouldn’t suggest as much.

Barlow allowed fewer than 2.50 earned runs per nine in 2021-22. He has seen a worrying spike in walks this year, contributing to the lesser results, but he’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. Barlow isn’t as valuable a target as he was last summer, and a brutal July in which he’s allowed 10 runs in eight innings isn’t doing the Royals any favors. There’s still value here, though, particularly since he has an additional season of arbitration control and is playing on a fairly modest $5.3MM salary.

10. Mark Canha, OF, Mets

Canha is another short-term veteran for the Mets. The outfielder is making $10.5MM this season. His contract contains an $11.5MM club option for next year. Given his fine but unexceptional performance, it seems that’s trending towards a $2MM buyout. If the Mets aren’t planning to keep Canha around, there’s little reason not to pull the trigger this summer.

The right-handed hitter owns a .239/.338/.375 line with six homers through 296 trips to the plate. He’s drawing plenty of walks and striking out at a career-low 17.2% clip, though he’s not hitting for much power. While Canha isn’t an impact bat, he’s a generally above-average hitter who plays solid corner outfield defense and can handle center in a pinch.

11. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals

12. Chris Stratton, RP, Cardinals

The next tier of Cardinal rentals, DeJong and Stratton also seem likely to change uniforms. The former has rebounded from a couple terrible offensive seasons to hit at a league average level (.238/.303/.421). He struggles to get on base against right-handed pitching but mashes lefties and plays plus defense at shortstop. DeJong’s $9MM salary is high but not untenable, especially given an overall down middle infield market. His contract contains a $12.5MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $2MM.

Stratton is a straightforward middle relief trade candidate. He’s making $2.8MM in his final arbitration season. The right-hander owns a 4.36 ERA with above-average strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.7%) marks in 53 2/3 innings. It won’t be a franchise-altering return, but he’s the kind of solid bullpen arm contenders always need around the deadline.

13. Paul Sewald, RP, Mariners

Sewald is an impact late-game arm. The righty has a 2.93 ERA through 43 frames while striking out over 35% of batters faced. For the third consecutive season, he’s getting swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings. Playing on a $4.1MM salary with another year of arbitration control, he’d draw plenty of interest.

Seattle doesn’t have to deal him. They’re fringe contenders this year and certainly not kicking off a rebuild. Yet they have plenty of bullpen depth and could view Sewald as a somewhat expendable player if they can net a promising hitter with an extended team control window. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night the M’s were open to offers.

14. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

15. Josh Hader, RP, Padres

Snell and Hader would have the potential to shoot up this list if we had time to reevaluate things on Tuesday. They’d be arguably the top two rentals if the Padres put them on the market. Snell has a 2.61 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts. Hader is operating at peak form, allowing fewer than one earned run per nine while punching out upwards of 38% of opponents.

The question, as it has been for months, is whether San Diego would move them. Four days ago, the answer seemed to be a clear no. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday morning the Friars had rebuffed inquiries from other clubs. Subsequent reports suggested they were a little more open to offers but still preferred to hold the duo and make a playoff push. San Diego is six games out of a Wild Card spot and could take this one right down to the wire.

16. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Mariners

Hernández wouldn’t have the same appeal as Sewald, but the calculus for Seattle is similar. They’re a season-high three games above .500 and 4.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to jump. They’re unlikely to throw in the towel but could look to move short-term pieces, particularly if they can land immediate MLB talent with a longer control window.

It’s hard to consider Hernández’s tenure in Seattle as anything other than a disappointment so far. He’s hitting .236/.287/.410 over 432 trips to the plate. He’s playing better defense than expected but hasn’t come anywhere close to the middle-of-the-order offensive form of his final three seasons in Toronto. Whether Seattle would make him a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter now seems a question. Hernández is making $14MM for his final arbitration season.

17. Seth Lugo, SP, Padres

The Padres face a similar question on Lugo as they do with Snell and Hader. The righty has taken well to his return to permanent rotation work, posting a 3.62 ERA with a solid 23.4% strikeout percentage and an excellent 4.6% walk rate. He’s outperforming his $7.5MM salary and looks like a lock (barring injury) to decline a matching player option for next season.

If the Friars concede they’re unlikely to make the playoffs and move Snell and Hader, there’s little reason not to do the same with Lugo. The trade return wouldn’t be as strong for the 33-year-old as it would be with his higher-profile teammates, but he’d quietly be one of the better arms available.

18. Keynan Middleton, RP, White Sox

There’s no suspense with the White Sox’s direction. They’ve already shipped off a handful of relievers and Middleton’s a virtual lock to follow. An offseason minor league signee, the righty has exceeded expectations with a 3.82 ERA and 30.7% strikeout rate over 35 1/3 innings. He’s an affordable middle inning arm headed back to the open market at year’s end. There’s little reason for the Sox not to move him for a mid-tier prospect.

19. Randal Grichuk, OF, Rockies

20. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies

21. Brent Suter, RP, Rockies

22. Brad Hand, RP, Rockies

An assortment of impending free agents on a last-place Colorado team, all four of these players look likely to move. Grichuk is a right-handed hitter who can cover all three outfield spots and is destroying left-handed pitching this season. He has dramatic home-road splits but fits as a role player on a contender. Cron had a terrible start to the year while seemingly playing through back discomfort that eventually sent him to the injured list. He’s hitting .308/.338/.569 since coming off the IL and could appeal to a team looking for a right-handed power bat off the bench. The Rockies owe Grichuk $5MM this season, while Cron is making $7.5MM.

Suter is playing on a $3MM arbitration salary. The left-hander has a 2.51 ERA in 46 2/3 innings despite a middling 20.5% strikeout rate. Hand is playing on a $1.5MM salary with a $500K buyout on an option that’d become a mutual provision if he’s traded. His 4.76 ERA isn’t inspiring but he’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents. The Rockies have indicated more of a willingness to trade their rentals than in years past and already shipped Pierce Johnson to Atlanta.

23. Brooks Raley, RP, Mets

Raley is another short-term veteran for the Mets. New York holds a $6.5MM option on his services and could keep him around for another season, though they might view this as a good chance to cash him in. The lefty reliever has a 2.43 ERA over 37 innings. He’s issuing a few too many walks but striking out a quarter of batters faced while making $4.5MM.

24. Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox

Anderson is having a brutal offensive season, putting up just a .239/.282/.279 batting line without a home run in 348 plate appearances. He’d been an All-Star caliber player for a few seasons before this, one of the game’s best contact hitters with plus speed and decent shortstop defense. It’s an inopportune time for the ChiSox to move him, but Anderson has played poorly enough the club no longer seems assured of even exercising his $14MM option for next season. They’re reportedly open to offers on all but a few core players. Anderson, who is making $12.5MM this year, has drawn some reported attention from the Marlins.

25. Giovanny Gallegos, RP, Cardinals

Gallegos is less likely than the Cardinals above him on this list to move. He’s under contract for at least one more season at an affordable $5.5MM rate, while the club holds an option for 2025. With plans to reload in ’24, St. Louis could find it more desirable to hold one of their better relievers. Reports this week indicated the Cards were at least open to offers on Gallegos, though, as he could plausibly land some upper minors starting pitching which the organization desires. The 31-year-old righty owns a 3.77 ERA with a decent 24.1% strikeout rate and excellent 5.2% walk percentage over 43 innings. He has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the past five seasons.

26. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s

Blackburn is one of Oakland’s top starters. The righty battled finger/hand issues early in the season but has returned to pitch 10 times. His 5.06 ERA through 48 innings isn’t eye-catching, but his 22.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk percentage are around league average. Blackburn looks like a serviceable #4/5 starter. He’s making only $1.9MM and eligible for arbitration for two seasons beyond this one. The A’s don’t have to move him, but as a 29-year-old back-end starter, he’s likely not viewed as a building block of the ongoing rebuild.

27. Justin Verlander, SP, Mets

28. Max Scherzer, SP, Mets

The future Hall of Fame rotation duo could serve as a litmus test for how the Mets view their chances beyond this season. New York is clearly open to selling impending free agents but will reload for 2024. Do they still envision the pair of veteran star hurlers anchoring their next contending rotation?

Neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched at peak levels this season, though they’ve still been above-average MLB starters. They’re tied for the loftiest annual salary in big league history at $43.333MM. Verlander is signed through 2024 with a vesting/player option for ’25; Scherzer has a player option for next season which he seems inclined to exercise. Both have full no-trade protection but may be willing to waive it to facilitate a move to a club with World Series aspirations in 2023. There are a lot of roadblocks to a deal. The Mets would have to pay down some of the money; the players have to agree; the team has to find acceptable young talent. Yet if things all came together on either player, there would probably be no bigger name changing teams.

29. Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs

30. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs

Had we published this list at the start of the week, Bellinger and Stroman would quite likely have placed within the top five. Such is the nature of deadline season, when teams can change their fortunes rapidly. Mike Tauchman’s game-saving catch last night in St. Louis pushed Chicago’s win streak to seven. Suddenly, they’re above .500 and only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot (and 4.5 back in the division).

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and chairman Tom Ricketts have maintained all summer they’d prefer to add if the club played well enough. The team has gotten hot at the last moment and given the front office reason to avoid a sale. Whether they’ll do so remains to be seen — they were reportedly undecided four days ago — but Bellinger and Stroman deals no longer seem assured (or even likely). Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly tweeted last night the team’s strong recent play could lead the front office to reconsider trading away veterans.

31. José Cisnero, RP, Tigers

32. Chasen Shreve, RP, Tigers

Cisnero and Shreve are on the opposite end of the spectrum of the players directly above them on the list. Neither Detroit reliever would grab many headlines but they seem very likely to move as impending free agents. Cisnero, a 34-year-old righty, has a 3.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers over 39 2/3 innings. He’s making $2.29MM in his final arbitration season. Shreve, a 33-year-old southpaw, carries a middling 4.70 ERA but solid peripherals in 38 1/3 frames. He’s making $1.25MM.

33. Rich Hill, SP, Pirates

Few players are as familiar with trade rumors as Hill. The veteran southpaw looks likely to move again after the Pirates fell out of the mix. He’s not having an exceptional season — 4.82 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate over 114 innings — but he’s a respected clubhouse presence who could fit as a fifth or sixth starter on a contender seeking rotation depth. Hill is playing on an $8MM salary.

34. José Quintana, SP, Mets

Quintana has found himself in trade rumors all of two starts into his Mets’ tenure. The veteran southpaw required rib surgery in Spring Training that cost him the first half of the season. He has looked good in his two outings — five runs allowed in 11 innings — but would be an unconventional trade candidate given the limited workload. Quintana is making $13MM apiece in 2023-24. The Mets could probably find a taker for the bulk of that money but seem unlikely to get a solid prospect return unless they pay down a notable chunk of the deal. Whether that’s preferable to simply keeping him as part of next year’s rotation is to be determined.

35. Carlos Hernández, RP, Royals

36. Alex Lange, RP, Tigers

37. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

38. Aaron Bummer, RP, White Sox

This group has extended control windows, but non-competitive teams can be more willing to relinquish a reliever than deal a controllable starter or bat. Hernández has wipeout stuff and has found his stride in the bullpen this season after a rocky career as a starter. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter and is controllable through 2027. Lange blends strong strikeout and grounder rates with well below-average control. He’s more volatile than the average reliever but has consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons and has saved 17 games for Detroit. Lange is also controllable for another four and a half years.

Finnegan has two and a half years of arbitration left. He’s making $2.3MM this season. A fastball-heavy righty, he has a 3.12 ERA with average peripherals across 43 1/3 innings. Finnegan has gotten the closer role in Washington with 14 saves but profiles better as a middle reliever for a contender.

Bummer is making $3.75MM this season, $5.5MM next year, and has club options covering 2025-26. The southpaw is allowing nearly seven earned runs per nine but has much stronger peripherals — including a 28.2% strikeout percentage and huge 54.2% grounder rate. Opposing teams will look beyond the ERA and the Sox have shown a willingness to listen on their relievers, dealing Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman despite controlling both beyond this season. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested (on Twitter) this morning that Chicago was more inclined to keep Bummer, but he has reportedly drawn interest from contenders.

39. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

40. Adam Ottavino, RP, Mets

The Mets would presumably be happy to find a taker for Carrasco and/or Ottavino. The former is an impending free agent, while the latter has a $6.75MM player option next season. They might be hard-pressed to find interest, however. Carrasco is making $14MM this year and has a 5.82 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks over 14 starts. Ottavino’s 3.40 ERA and 57.4% grounder rate are each excellent, but his strikeout to walk profile is middling. While he’s a respected high-leverage reliever, the player option saps a decent amount of the appeal.

41. Lane Thomas, OF, Nationals

How to proceed with Thomas is probably the toughest decision the Washington front office faces this summer. He’s having a strong year, hitting .287/.335/.477 with 16 longballs in 445 trips to the dish. The bulk of that production has been platoon-heavy; Thomas is teeing off on lefties (.364/.410/.643) compared to slightly below-average production versus righty pitching (.252/.301/.401).

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this week that was causing a discrepancy between the Nats and possible suitors on Thomas’ value. Rosenthal indicated the Nats viewed him as a quality regular while the market perceived him as more of a high-end platoon player. If that remains the case, the Nationals would probably hold him. He’s making just $2.2MM and eligible for arbitration through 2025. If the scarcity of productive bats leads other teams to up their offers in the next few days, the Nats could look to move him.

42. Elias Díaz, C, Rockies

Díaz would have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on catching talent. The All-Star Game MVP has a .270/.328/.419 line with 10 homers across 348 plate appearances. Playing in Coors Field helps — Díaz’s power numbers are predictably much better at home than on the road — but he’s a solid hitter for a catcher. He’s never gotten good reviews from public pitch framing metrics but has plus arm strength and is adept at blocking balls in the dirt.

Colorado will have a higher ask on Díaz than on the rentals listed above. He’s making only $5.5MM this season and under contract for $6MM next year.

43. Aaron Civale, SP, Guardians

If the Guardians were to deal from their controllable rotation options for offensive help, Civale is the candidate. Cleveland probably won’t part with any of their rookie hurlers, while injuries to Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill take them out of the equation. The Guardians rolled the dice on Noah Syndergaard a few days ago to help address that injury-plagued starting staff, perhaps easing some concerns about the rotation depth if they listened on Civale.

The right-hander has a 2.54 ERA over 12 starts. His strikeout/walk profile is more akin to that of the solid #3/4 starter he’s been throughout his career as opposed to a budding ace. That’s still plenty valuable, though, particularly since Civale is only making $2.6MM. He’s eligible for arbitration two more times. The Guardians aren’t going to give him away; they’d likely only make a move if it netted them immediate lineup help as they look to track down the Twins in the AL Central.

44. Joey Bart, C, Giants

Bart has seemed an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for a few months. The former #2 overall pick has been passed as San Francisco’s catcher of the future by Patrick Bailey. He’s on optional assignment to Triple-A, hitting .218/.304/.353 in 34 games.

The right-handed hitter has been plagued by swing-and-miss at the big league level. He’s a career .223/.293/.342 hitter in 158 contests, striking out nearly 36% of the time. This is his final minor league option season, so he’s running low on time to establish himself as a regular. The opportunity is probably never coming again in San Francisco, but teams like the Marlins or Yankees could give him a look.

45. Mark Leiter Jr., RP, Cubs

46. Michael Fulmer, RP, Cubs

Leiter and Fulmer are the next tier down of trade candidates if the Cubs did decide to sell. The former has a 3.14 ERA with excellent strikeout (31.4%) and grounder (50.5%) rates in 43 innings. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2026 but would never have more trade appeal than he does now. If the Cubs push in this year, they won’t move him, but if they deal Bellinger/Stroman, selling high on Leiter would be a natural next step. Fulmer has pitched well of late and carries a 4.40 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate in 45 frames. He’s playing on a $4MM salary and will head back to the open market at year’s end.

47. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds

India found himself in rumors early this week when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Reds were open to moving him for controllable starting pitching. Subsequent reports categorized that more as a matter of due diligence and indicated an offseason deal was more likely. India has a fair bit of trade appeal with three and a half seasons of remaining arbitration control but isn’t likely to fetch an impact starter with multiple control years on his own. He’d started the year strong but slumped of late, leaving him with a league average .251/.336/.409 slash on the season.

48. Adam Duvall, OF, Red Sox

The Red Sox have played their way out of consideration of selling. A five-game win streak pulls them within a game and a half of a Wild Card spot. They’re going to add over the next few days, likely on the pitching side. Still, they could dealing ancillary pieces off the MLB roster — particularly if it nets them pitching help — and Duvall seems the likeliest candidate.

He’d been scorching hot through the season’s first couple weeks but broke his wrist in mid-April. Jarren Duran seized the center field job between Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida in the interim. Duvall hasn’t hit since coming off the IL, posting a .211/.279/.375 line with a 36.4% strikeout rate in 34 games. Still, there could be interest from clubs with a more direct path to outfield playing time; the Phillies and Braves have been speculated as possible fits. Duvall is making $7MM and is an impending free agent.

49. David Bednar, RP, Pirates

50. Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates

Bednar and Keller have come up in loose trade chatter this week. It seems more due diligence than anything else, with multiple reports suggesting a trade of either is unlikely. Bednar is an elite reliever and Pittsburgh native who’s controllable through 2026. Keller, a former top prospect, has developed into an upper mid-rotation arm and is eligible for arbitration for two and a half seasons. There’ll be plenty of interest but huge asking prices on both.

Others To Watch

A’s: Seth Brown, Tony Kemp, Ramón Laureano, Sam Moll

Angels: Jo Adell

Astros: Jake Meyers

Blue Jays: Santiago Espinal

Brewers: Víctor Caratini

Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Ryan Helsley, Iván Herrera

Cubs: Yan Gomes, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly

Giants: Alex Wood

Mariners: Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Tom Murphy, Bryan Woo

Mets: Omar Narváez, Drew Smith

Nationals: Trevor Williams

Padres: Luis Garcia, Nick Martinez

Pirates: Ji Man Choi, Austin Hedges, Colin Holderman

Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec

Reds: Kevin Newman, Nick Senzel

Rockies: Jurickson Profar

Royals: Matt Duffy, Nicky Lopez, Brady Singer

Tigers: Jason Foley, Tyler Holton

Twins: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Gregory Santos

Yankees: Gleyber Torres, Wandy Peralta

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