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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at March 21, 2024 9:08pm CDT

The Dodgers stole all the headlines this offseason, as they gave out multiple record-breaking deals, traded for an ace and did a bunch of other stuff as well.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $162.9MM (counting Ohtani’s salary as the league-adjusted $46MM; doesn’t include posting fee for Yamamoto)
Total spending: $1.096 billion (adjusting Ohtani’s guarantee to present day value of $460MM makes this number $756.4MM)

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been a powerhouse team for a long time, having won the National League West in 10 of the past 11 seasons. The one exception was 2021, when they won 106 games but somehow were one shy of a surprising 107-win Giants club.

But they still came into this winter hungry for improvements. That 11-year stretch of playoff appearances only led to one World Series title, which was in the shortened 2020 season. The 2023 season ended unpleasantly, despite the club winning 100 games and earning another division title. Their rotation was largely decimated by injuries as the season wore on and they were quickly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

With the club looking to make a bold splash and this winter featuring one of the most anticipated free agents of all time, there were many who expected a pairing between the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani. In fact, it’s something that has been expected for even longer than that.

When Ohtani initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers weren’t a perfect fit since the National League did not yet have the designated hitter, which led Ohtani to pick the Angels. But the NL got the DH in 2022, which started a countdown for many people, just waiting for the two-way superstar’s free agency.

The Dodgers were obviously going to be interested but also made their intentions clear by deciding not to issue a qualifying offer to J.D. Martinez. Under normal circumstances, he would have warranted one, given his strong 33-homer campaign in 2023. But if he had accepted, it would have clogged up the designated hitter spot they wanted to put Ohtani into, so they didn’t risk it.

It probably shouldn’t have been surprising that a player as unique as Ohtani ended up having one of the most unique free agencies. From the outset, it was marked by a strange insistence on secrecy, to the point that clubs would reportedly hurt their chances of signing him if they acknowledged that they were trying to do so. Perhaps the most absurd example of this was when Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins missed the winter meetings and met with reporters via Zoom but wouldn’t tell them he was in Florida, showing Ohtani the club’s Dunedin complex.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts seemed to break protocol when he admitted that he and his club had recently met with Ohtani. Given the cloak-and-dagger nature of the Ohtani free agency and the lack of real information, it seemed genuinely possible that this would actually have a negative impact on the club’s chances of getting the deal done. There was even more worry when there were reports that Ohtani was on a plane to sign with the Blue Jays, but those eventually proved to be inaccurate. The long-awaited Ohtani-Dodgers pairing finally got done with a massive 10-year, $700MM deal.

Or did it? The unicorn player with the bizarre free agency apparently couldn’t sign a normal contract. After news of the deal landed, reports quickly emerged that put the shocking numbers into more context. Despite the $700M price tag, there was some fine print.

Ohtani will actually only make $2MM in each season of the deal and then get $68MM annually, without interest, in the 10 years following the expiration of the deal. He will still get $700MM, but over 20 years instead of 10. Deferred money reduces the present day value of the deal to $46MM annually in the eyes of the league and $43.8MM from the perspective of the MLBPA. Even with those caveats, the approximate $460MM guarantee is still the largest in MLB history. Even the lower of the two AAV numbers puts Ohtani ahead of Max Scherzer for the largest of all-time.

This was perceived by many fans as a way for the club to “dodge” the luxury tax, but MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes argued otherwise at the time. The $46MM competitive balance tax hit the Dodgers will get for Ohtani was in line with most expectations coming into the winter. The $700MM number isn’t truly real, but it’s helpful for the agents to describe it that way.

Regardless of the optics, Ohtani reportedly suggested the structure to multiple teams. The Giants and Blue Jays were willing to pay it, just like the Dodgers, but the Angels were not. The appeal from the player’s perspective is obvious. The $2MM salary is obviously paltry by baseball standards but Ohtani won’t be starving as he has millions coming in via endorsements every year. By kicking his payments down the road, he can ensure the club has more resources to put a winning team around him. And the contract reportedly has language that makes sure they use their savings towards making the club as competitive as possible.

They certainly held up their end of the bargain with the remainder of this offseason. As mentioned, the club’s rotation was snakebit last year. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin both had surgery last year and couldn’t be counted on to start 2024 healthy. Walker Buehler‘s Tommy John was back in 2022 but he still missed all of 2023 and will be handled with care this year. Lance Lynn, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw all hit free agency after 2023, making starting pitching an obvious priority for the club.

Kershaw had hit free agency twice before and re-signed with the club but the Dodgers couldn’t rely on the same thing playing out this winter. Kershaw announced in early November that he had undergone shoulder surgery and wouldn’t be able to return until some point this summer. Ohtani wasn’t going to help either, as he underwent some kind of UCL surgery in September and will be limited to hitting only in 2024.

Despite already giving out a record-setting deal, the Dodgers seemed prepared for more, casting a wide net in their search for starting pitching. Throughout the winter, they were connected to high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, mid-range guys like Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Jesús Luzardo.

Their first big rotation strike came via the trade market, as the Dodgers were able to land Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. With Tampa looking to cut payroll, the Dodgers took on both Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot, sending younger players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca the other way.

Glasnow has struggled to stay healthy in his career but has pitched at an ace level when healthy. He overcame a lengthy Tommy John absence in 2023, setting a new career high with 120 major league innings, putting up a 3.53 earned run average in the process. The Dodgers were clearly not scared by the past health issues, as the deal they made with the Rays was conditional on getting an extension done with Glasnow, which they eventually did. The combination of this year’s salary and the four they added on means they are committed to him for five years and $136.5MM.

But they weren’t done there. The market around Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to get hotter and hotter as the winter nights grew darker. That was a testament not only to his incredible skills but also his age. It’s hard to find an ace in free agency but it’s almost unheard of to get a 25-year-old ace. He comes with no experience in the big leagues but a 1.82 ERA over his seven NPB seasons and little doubt about his ability to handle the show (rough debut notwithstanding).

Due to that rarity, multiple clubs were willing to go over the $300MM mark to land Yamamoto, but the Dodgers ultimately sealed it with a 12-year, $325MM deal. But since Yamamoto had been subject to the posting system, the Dodgers will also have to pay a fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball. Such fees are calculated as a percentage of the deal, so a massive deal means massive fees. This contract led to a $51MM posting fee for the Buffaloes, meaning the Dodgers were effectively paying $376MM to get Yamamoto. Factoring in the club’s luxury tax status means the outlay is even higher. Even before that posting fee, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher not named Ohtani.

They had one more move to remake their rotation, but it was far more modest than the Glasnow or Yamamoto acquisitions. They signed lefty James Paxton to a one-year deal. It was initially reported an an $11MM guarantee but was later changed to $7MM with incentives. The Dodgers apparently adjusted it down after Paxton’s physical, though they didn’t find anything to scuttle it entirely. Paxton has been oft-injured in recent years, hardly pitching at all from 2020 to 2022, but was able to make 19 starts for the Red Sox last year.

On the position player side of things, the most surprising developments surrounded Mookie Betts. Having spent the vast majority of his career in right field, the Dodgers moved him to the middle infield last year. He came up as a second baseman and had dabbled at that position earlier in his major league career, but the club was evidently impressed enough to make him their everyday guy at the keystone coming into 2024. More on that later.

With Betts moving to the infield, there was room for additions in the outfield. Jason Heyward was re-signed to a one-year deal, but he was effectively replacing himself. He had a nice bounceback for the Dodgers in 2023, being limited to a strong-side platoon role. The Dodgers were frequently connected to Teoscar Hernandez and were able to get him to sign a one-year deal as well, adding yet another potent bat to their lineup.

With Hernandez and Heyward set to join an outfield mix with James Outman, Margot started to seem a bit unnecessary. He could platoon with Heyward but they also had Chris Taylor on hand for that. They eventually decided to send Margot to the Twins and use the $4MM they saved to sign Enrique Hernandez instead. He can also hit from the right side and play the outfield, but his ability to play the infield gave them a bit of extra cover for Betts and third baseman Max Muncy.

But the position player mix had one more twist to come in spring. The Dodgers planned on having Gavin Lux, who missed all of 2023 due to a knee injury, as their everyday shortstop. But he struggled with some consistency in his throws this spring, an issue he’s had in the past. The Dodgers quickly decided to flip Betts and Lux, a move that Roberts described as “permanent for now.”

This put the Dodgers in the wild position of having committed over a billion dollars this winter (kind of) but somehow ending up with a 31-year-old right fielder as their everyday shortstop. Betts briefly played the position last year, getting into 16 games. That’s already the most ever games at the position for a guy after winning multiple Gold Gloves in the outfield, per Sarah Langs of MLB, highlighting how unprecedented this experiment is.

Many fans grew tired of hearing about the Dodgers this winter, as the club was incredibly active while many others sat on their hands. But the fact is that they were doing so many interesting things that it was hard to look away. No one had ever given a free agent $500MM before, let alone $600MM or $700MM. It turns out the Dodgers didn’t really do any of those either, but the bizarre deferral structure of Ohtani’s deal was itself interesting and unprecedented. They gave the largest guarantee ever to a pitcher that isn’t a two-way player. And they gave it to a guy with no major league experience. They put their MVP candidate right fielder at shortstop.

They did all of that and more, adding multiple bats and arms to a club that has already been a dominant force for over a decade. After getting Ohtani and making all of these other moves, the expectations will be even higher from now on. For the next 10 years, the club has Ohtani on the roster and is only paying him $2MM per year, a pittance in this league. All the chips are on the table and anything short of a World Series in that time will be counted by many as a failure.

How would you grade the Dodgers' offseason?

  • A 72% (1,859)
  • B 12% (311)
  • F 10% (253)
  • C 4% (102)
  • D 2% (42)

Total votes: 2,567

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By | at March 21, 2024 6:22pm CDT

Between a new owner, a new lease at Camden Yards, and one of the offseason’s biggest trades, the Orioles made plenty of news on and off the field this winter.  Now the question is whether the reigning AL East champions can take the next step forward to challenge for a World Series title.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $13MM
Total spending: $13MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Orioles entered the winter with pretty clear needs at the top of their rotation and bullpen.  Since Felix Bautista‘s recovery from Tommy John surgery will sideline the closer for the entire season, the O’s targeted some of the biggest names in the free agent relief market (such as Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, and Aroldis Chapman) before finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal with Craig Kimbrel.

The veteran closer brings a possible Cooperstown-worthy resume and plenty of experience to the back to the Orioles’ pen, where Kimbrel will team with setup men Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe to hopefully get close to replicating the lockdown dominance of the Bautista-led 2023 relief corps.  Of course, some red flags are apparent — Kimbrel faded down the stretch in both 2021 and 2022, and he had a couple of ill-timed blowups when pitching for the Phillies in last year’s NLCS.  The righty is also entering his age-36 season, and is prone to allowing walks and hard contact.

An argument could be made that Baltimore could have aimed a little higher or gone with someone a bit steadier than Kimbrel, though with Bautista ostensibly returning in 2025, GM Mike Elias might not have wanted to make too lengthy of a commitment to a new reliever.  As it stands, Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee still represents the largest amount of money the O’s have given to a player since Elias took over the front office after the 2018 season.

While the Orioles’ lengthy rebuild precluded a lot of major spending, Elias continued to take a relatively measured approach to the payroll this offseason, even in the wake of a 101-win performance.  While the O’s checked in on such notable free agents as Hader or Aaron Nola, the team mostly focused on the trade market to address its pitching needs.  There were plenty of rumors linking the Orioles to top names like Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo, but amidst all these reports, Baltimore eventually landed another top trade candidate.

Corbin Burnes has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last four seasons, and his acquisition instantly solves the Orioles’ desire for a frontline ace.  Since Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 campaign, the trade also represents another shorter-term move for Elias — Burnes avoided arbitration with the Brewers by agreeing to a $15,637,500 salary, making him only slightly pricier than Kimbrel.

Trading for Burnes was a clear win-now move for the O’s, and a deal made possible by the team’s seemingly bottomless minor league talent pool.  The Brewers came away with a potential shortstop of the future in Joey Ortiz, an intriguing rotation or bullpen candidate in DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (the Orioles’ selection in Competitive Balance Round A, which are the only types of picks that can be traded).  This is a pretty significant trade package, yet from Baltimore’s perspective, even a top-100 prospect like Ortiz is expendable considering how the Orioles’ infield of the future looks to already be in place.

Between Jordan Westburg, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, and soon-to-debut star prospect Jackson Holliday, the Orioles may have second base, third base, and shortstop locked up for the better part of the next decade.  This doesn’t even count Coby Mayo or Connor Norby knocking on the door of the big leagues, or incumbent utilitymen Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo still on hand as perhaps overqualified bench depth.

The outfield is also crowded.  Anthony Santander (a free agent next winter), Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays (free agents in the 2025-26 offseason) have Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Kyle Stowers pushing for playing time right now, let alone looming to eventually supplant the more experienced players as the Orioles’ starting outfield.

If the O’s were still rebuilding, it is easy to imagine a world where any of Santander, Mullins, Hays, Urias, or Mateo have been traded by now to let the kids play.  However, the Orioles are both trying to win in 2024 and not hamper the development of any of their up-and-comers.  That means someone like Stowers or Kjerstad might start the year at Triple-A in order to get regular at-bats rather than sporadic playing time in the majors, and the Orioles could use their bench spots for veterans more accustomed to part-time roles.

This could mean in-house names like Urias, Mateo, Terrin Vavra, and Ryan McKenna, or a familiar face back in the fold like Tyler Nevin (re-acquired from the Tigers in a January trade).  Baltimore also dealt for Nick Maton and signed Kolten Wong and Michael Perez to minor league deals, further adding depth just in case the young core needs a bit more seasoning.

All of this depth makes it easy to see how more trades could be coming at the deadline or earlier, once the Orioles have a better sense of their needs or which of their prospects may or may not be ready for prime time.  It isn’t out of the question that Elias could move earlier to obtain more pitching help, considering how Baltimore already has a couple of starters set to begin the season on the injured list.

Kyle Bradish emerged as the Orioles’ top hurler last year, yet his status is in question after an MRI revealed a sprain in his right UCL in February.  Bradish received a PRP injection and has been slowly building his arm up over the last five weeks, with decent progress to date but still a lot of uncertainty over when (or even if) he’ll be able to make a proper return this season.  John Means will also be sidelined for perhaps the first month of the season, as soreness in his surgically repaired elbow last October delayed Means’ offseason ramp-up work.

With two members of the projected rotation down, Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer will be joined by Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells for the time being.  Minor league signing Julio Teheran, waiver claim Tucker Davidson, trade acquisition Jonathan Heasley or Bruce Zimmermann figure to work as the top depth options before the Orioles think about dipping into their starting pitching prospect pool (i.e. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson).

Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton were on the team’s radar as shorter-term signing options, and Mike Clevinger remains unsigned as a potential one-year stopgap.  Beyond Baltimore’s flirtation with Nola, there wasn’t much of a sense that the Orioles were going to splurge on a big free agent arm, so Jordan Montgomery still doesn’t seem all that likely of a possibility even though Montgomery is still available as Opening Day nears.

The rotation picture could gain clarity once more is known about Bradish or Means’ recoveries, and things will look more stable if Rodriguez takes another step forward in his second MLB season.  However, the question remains — could the Orioles have done more to shore up their pitching staff?  Even with the prohibitive costs of pitching (either via signing or trade) in mind, adding Burnes but losing Bradish and Means more or less leaves the O’s in the same place rotation-wise as they were at the end of 2023.

It may be too soon to second-guess Elias’ decisions given that more moves could still be made, and that the roster on the whole still looks very capable of contending.  It is also very much worth noting that the Orioles have increased spending, as their projected payroll (as per RosterResource) of $96.8MM is still a modest total in comparison to the rest of the league yet also a big jump from Baltimore’s $60.9MM payroll on Opening Day 2023.

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Orioles’ season is whether or not the impending ownership change could give the front office some immediate extra spending capacity.  David Rubenstein would hardly be the first new owner to want to make a splash upon buying a team, and since the billionaire’s investment group could be fully approved to buy the Orioles within even the next few weeks, Rubenstein might well be interested in giving Elias the green light to be more aggressive at the deadline.  Boosting spending to even league-average levels would create a lot of extra spending capacity for the O’s to add talent, or (perhaps more importantly) start signing some of their cornerstone young players to extensions.

Even considering the ailing health of majority owner Peter Angelos, the legal drama between members of the Angelos family, and team chairman John Angelos’ cautionary statements about spending, it still counted as a surprise when reports emerged in January that the Orioles were being sold.  This news broke just as the O’s were finalizing a new lease agreement with state and city officials about remaining at Camden Yards, and while this new lease technically only runs for the next 15 years, at least another 15 years could be added to the deal if the franchise and Maryland officials can work out (prior to December 31, 2027) a development plan for a “ballpark village” type of project around Camden Yards.

The ownership change only cements the new era that was already dawning for the team in terms of the on-field product.  Baltimore fans had to endure a lot over the Orioles’ multi-year rebuilding period, but things couldn’t look much better for the fanbase over both the long term and in the immediate future.  The O’s look like legitimate World Series contenders even with the remaining questions in the pitching staff, and some work at the deadline might patch those few remaining holes.

How would you grade the Orioles' offseason?

  • B 49% (1,331)
  • A 30% (825)
  • C 16% (427)
  • D 3% (77)
  • F 2% (61)

Total votes: 2,721

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | at March 21, 2024 10:01am CDT

The Pirates’ ongoing rebuild showed some encouraging signs last year but it didn’t prompt the front office to go out and win the offseason. They made some modest additions as their focus remains clearly on the future, but did sign another core member of their club to a sizable extension.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)
Total spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

2023 was the fifth straight losing season for the Bucs, but they at least showed some hints that maybe the rebuild was nearing its end. They started out hot and were leading the division for a time, holding that spot until the middle of June. They eventually faded and finished the year at 76-86, not too shabby, especially considering they were without shortstop Oneil Cruz for the vast majority of the season.

Some fans may have hoped for that semi-surge to be followed by an aggressive winter, but it ended up being fairly modest, at least in terms of additions. Starting pitching was a clear priority coming into the offseason after the Pittsburgh rotation posted a collective earned run average of 4.88 in 2023. That need only grew when Johan Oviedo required Tommy John surgery in November, putting him out of action for the entire 2024 season.

The Bucs seemed to cast a fairly wide net in their pursuits of starting pitching, though they were mostly connected to guys who could be had fairly cheaply. Jack Flaherty was a target and he could have perhaps been signed for a modest one-year “prove it” deal, but he eventually got it from the Tigers instead. Yariel Rodríguez and Shota Imanaga had plenty of interest but were somewhat unproven. The Bucs seemed to sniff around, but Rodríguez got a five-year, $32MM deal from the Jays, with a modest $6.4MM average annual value. There were rumors Imanaga could get $100MM, but his market softened and the Bucs got involved, though he ended up settling for four years and $53MM from the Cubs. They were also interested in the controllable pitchers of the Marlins, particularly Edward Cabrera, but nothing got done there either. Those talks carried into spring training, but Cabrera is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Whether that impacted talks isn’t known, but it’s certainly plausible.

In the end, the Pirates added a couple of veterans at a modest cost. Martín Pérez was signed to a one-year, $8MM deal,while Marco Gonzales was acquired via trade. Gonzales is making a salary of $12MM this year but will only be paid $3MM by the Pirates, through convoluted means that are explained by here by Ethan Hullihen of Bucs On Deck.

Those two could perhaps add some veteran stability to a fairly young and inexperienced rotation, but neither is coming off an especially strong season. Pérez had a 4.98 ERA as a starter for the Rangers and got bumped to the bullpen late in the year. Gonzales required surgery for a nerve issue in his forearm after 10 starts with a 5.22 ERA.

The Pirates seemed set at catcher coming into the winter, as prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both cracked the major leagues last year. But similar to the Oviedo situation, it was reported in December that Rodríguez would need UCL surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.

Less than two weeks before that news came out, the club had signed Ali Sánchez to a major league deal, perhaps indicating they already suspected the Rodríguez news was coming. Regardless, they had interest in Gary Sánchez as well but eventually added Yasmani Grandal on a modest deal to bolster the depth with Rodríguez out.

Davis didn’t catch much last year, only spending two innings behind the plate as Rodríguez handled the bulk of the work. Davis spent far more time in right field, as it seemed the organization had a bit more faith in the defensive abilities of Rodríguez. But the injury has forced Davis to don the tools of ignorance again this year. He has seemed to handle himself well in spring, both behind the dish and standing beside it, having hit .306/.381/.694. If he succeeds back there all year, the club may have a decision to make once Rodríguez is healthy, though many clubs split time between two different catchers these days.

First base was also a target, as Carlos Santana had most of the playing time there last year, but he was traded to the Brewers at the deadline. The club had some reported interest in bringing Santana back and was also connected to Josh Naylor of the Guardians, but they nabbed Rowdy Tellez to be their primary first baseman. He’s coming off a down year but hit 35 homers in 2022, so he’s a fine bounceback pickup at $3.2MM.

They also brought back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen for $5MM to serve as a designated hitter and veteran leader. He’s been quite open about his desire to continue playing in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career so it wasn’t a surprise to see the two sides link up an another one-year pact. The next home run he hits will be the 300th of his career, so Bucs fans will have a fun milestone chase early in the season.

Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh bolstered its bullpen with a surprising $10.5MM splash on Aroldis Chapman, which actually counts as their largest free agent deal of the winter. He should be able to lengthen the bullpen after a return to form in 2023. The Pirates will surely be happy if Chapman ends up part of a push for contention late in the year, but if that doesn’t happen, they could hope to follow the path of Kansas City. The Royals signed Chapman last year and flipped him to the Rangers at the deadline, netting Cole Ragans in return. He’s earning nearly three times as much in 2024 as he did in 2023, so he won’t be quite the bargain for trade partners this time around, but high-end relief pitching is always in demand regardless.

As the slow offseason left various players looking for jobs well into February and even into March, the Pirates were able to take advantage by signing Michael A. Taylor for a modest $4MM sum. He was reportedly looking to match Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, who each got $10.5MM, but he was one of many players who got boxed out by the drying up of spending in recent months.

The Bucs should be the beneficiary of Taylor’s poor fortune, as he’ll give them an elite defensive center fielder who will strike out a bunch but also likely pop a few home runs. By having former center fielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in the corners, they could have strong defense in all three spots with regularity.

The most significant deal of the winter was for a player already on the roster, as the Pirates signed Mitch Keller to a five-year extension worth $77MM. He already had agreed to a $5.4425MM salary for 2024, which was maintained as part of the extension, so it added four years and $71.5575MM in new money. Keller was slated for free agency after 2025, so it extended the club’s window of control by three years.

That has been the M.O. for the Bucs in recent years. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deals given out by the club since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in November of 2019 have all been extensions. Bryan Reynolds got a two-year, $13.5MM deal to avoid arbitration before eventually signing his seven-year, $100MM deal. Ke’Bryan Hayes got $70MM over eight years and now Keller is signed long-term as well. Meanwhile, they haven’t signed any free agent to a multi-year deal, with Chapman’s $10.5MM being the largest deal given on a one-year pact.

In a sense, that shows that the club has stayed the course. They have been building for the future for a long time, and their priorities are shown in that disparity of investment. Cherington said in December that he anticipated a payroll increase relative to last year, which has technically come to fruition. RosterResource lists this year’s payroll at $85MM. That’s 29th in the league, ahead of only the Athletics, but Cot’s Baseball Contracts had the Bucs at just $73MM last year.

The focus is still on the future, and the fortunes of the club will be largely be written by those already in the system. The club has shown their faith in Reynolds, Hayes and Keller as they continue to monitor Cruz, Davis, Rodríguez and Suwinski. Unproven players like Jared Triolo, Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Termarr Johnson and others could factor into the mix this year or in the near future. Skenes, last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, seems likely to join Keller, Perez and Gonzales in the rotation as soon as this summer.

The Pirates are still arguably the weakest team in the National League Central. Both the Projected Standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them finishing in the basement. But the division is fairly wide open and doesn’t have a clear favorite, which means there’s a path for the Pirates if things break right, either this year or down the line.

The club will likely have a different offseason someday, when they truly feel contention is at hand. But for now, it’s been another winter of modest investment in the present and a heavy focus on the future.

How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?

  • C 42% (1,128)
  • B 34% (915)
  • D 13% (337)
  • A 6% (167)
  • F 5% (130)

Total votes: 2,677

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2023-24 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates

31 Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Looming This Week

By | at March 20, 2024 5:21pm CDT

One of the provisions in that 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

The first uniform opt-out date on this year’s calendar falls Friday at 1pm CT. Any player can trigger his out clause at that point, and the team will subsequently be given a 48-hour window to either add him to the roster or release him. With many clubs around the league dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Angels: OF Jake Marisnick, LHP Drew Pomeranz

Marisnick, 33 this month, is a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder with a plus glove and questionable bat. He can hold his own against right-handed pitching (career .237/.293/.417, 93 wRC+) but is typically overmatched by righties (.223/.274/.365, 74 wRC+). He’s having a huge spring, but the Angels already have Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Aaron Hicks and Jo Adell on the 40-man roster.

The 35-year-old Pomeranz was a good starter from 2016-17 and a dominant reliever from 2019-21, but he didn’t pitch in 2022-23 due to arm injuries. He’s pitched 6 2/3 innings with the Angels this spring with middling results.

Blue Jays: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar, 1B Joey Votto

A poor season between the Mets and Angels last year set the stage for the 35-year-old Escobar to take a minor league deal. He’s long been a productive MLB hitter and even topped 30 homers back in 2019, but Escobar’s now in his mid-30s and struggling through an ugly spring while trying to win a spot in a crowded infield mix also featuring Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider.

Votto, 40, has been connected the Blue Jays seemingly forever due to his Canadian roots. He finally suited up for the Jays after agreeing to a minor league deal and homered in his first at-bat of camp. He’s had a lackluster showing at the plate in each of the past two MLB seasons, however.

Cubs: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, RHP Carl Edwards Jr., OF David Peralta

An underrated hitter for years in Miami, Cooper slashed .274/.350/.444 in nearly 1300 plate appearances from 2019-22 before a poorly timed down showing in 2023’s walk year. He’s hitting quite well in spring training, and the Cubs don’t have a proven option at first base — though they’re understandably high on 26-year-old trade acquisition Michael Busch.

Edwards had a nice 2022 season with the Nats and posted a solid ERA in 2023 but did so with dismal K-BB numbers. He’s competing for a spot in an uncharacteristically crowded Cubs bullpen and could be squeezed out. The 32-year-old pitched for the Cubs from 2015-19, so Chicago brass knows him well. From 2022-23 in D.C., he posted a 3.07 ERA but a middling 20% strikeout rate against a 10.5% walk rate.

Peralta, 36, has a trio of hits and a walk in ten plate appearances this spring. He was an above-average hitter with the D-backs every season from 2017-20 but has been less consistent of late. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s long had glaring platoon splits and is limited to the outfield corners.

Diamondbacks: SS Elvis Andrus

Andrus is 35 but can still pick it at shortstop or second base. His once above-average speed has faded to the 30th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, but his range at short remains excellent. Andrus hit .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) for the White Sox in 2023 and only has one year of above-average offense (2022) in the past six seasons.

Guardians: RHP Carlos Carrasco

Old friend Cookie Carrasco is fighting for the fifth spot in the Guardians’ rotation, and news of Gavin Williams‘ season-opening stint on the injured list could further open the door for the 36-year-old (37 on Thursday) to make the team. Carrasco was torched for a 6.80 ERA with the 2023 Mets. He allowed 1.80 homers per nine frames through 90 innings, with alarming batted-ball metrics (91.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 10.7% barrel rate). He was a solid mid-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he tossed 152 innings of 3.97 ERA ball with sharp strikeout and walk rates.

Marlins: C Curt Casali

The veteran Casali has batted .201/.311/.315 over the past three big league seasons — a 78 wRC+ in 503 plate appearances. The 35-year-old is off to a rough start in camp and is a long shot to unseat defensive-minded Nick Fortes or Christian Bethancourt, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Mets: 1B/DH Ji Man Choi

From 2017-22, Choi hit .254/.363/.465 (130 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. He walked at a 14.4% clip when holding the platoon advantage and fanned at a higher-than-average but still-manageable 24.1% rate. Lefties have always had Choi’s number, however, and his overall production cratered in 2023 while he dealt with Achilles and ribcage injuries. He’s fighting for a bench spot in New York alongside DJ Stewart and others.

Nationals: RHP Matt Barnes, OF Eddie Rosario, OF Jesse Winker

Barnes was an All-Star closer with the Red Sox in 2021 and briefly one of the game’s most dominant relievers, fanning more than 40% of his opponents for the bulk of that season. He wore down beginning in August and hasn’t been the same since a hip injury. Barnes’ velocity and strikeouts were way down in 2023 before he underwent season-ending surgery. He should have a good chance to win a spot in a Nationals bullpen that has little established talent.

Rosario and Winker are both left-handed-hitting outfielders who are best deployed in left field — with Winker having a particularly shaky defensive reputation. Winker is the younger of the two at 30 years old (to Rosario’s 32). Winker was quietly one of the most productive hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching for much of his time in Cincinnati, but knee and neck surgery in October 2022 look to have taken their toll on him. Rosario was the far more productive hitter in 2023. There may not be room for both veterans on the Washington roster. Winker has been in camp longer and been more productive in their small samples.

Orioles: 2B Kolten Wong

The Orioles seem to bring in a veteran infielder coming off a down season almost every year. It’s Wong’s turn in 2023. The 33-year-old was one of the game’s worst hitters in ’23, slashing just .183/.256/.263 in 250 plate appearances between the Mariners and Dodgers. That was beyond out of character for Wong, who’d been an average or better hitter in five of the past six seasons. If the O’s don’t want to rush Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, Wong could win a spot on the roster — but he hasn’t hit that well in camp so far.

Pirates: RHP Chase Anderson

It’s been five years since Anderson’s last solid season in a big league rotation, but the well-liked veteran continues to get work each season. From 2020-23, he’s pitched to a 6.19 ERA in 192 MLB frames — including a 5.42 mark in 86 1/3 innings last year (mostly with the Rockies). Anderson doesn’t miss many bats, but he has good command and is having a nice spring with the Pirates. He’s competing with Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Domingo German and others for one of two generally open rotation spots in Pittsburgh.

Rangers: INF Matt Duffy, RHP Shane Greene, RHP Jose Urena

A contact-oriented hitter who can play all over the infield, the 33-year-old Duffy faces an uphill battle with Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue all on the 40-man roster ahead of him. Nathaniel Lowe will open the season on the injured list, but that’ll likely work to Jared Walsh‘s benefit more than Duffy.

Greene, 35, is a former All-Star closer/setup man who peaked with the Tigers and Braves from 2017-20. He’s thrown just three innings in each of the past two MLB seasons but also turned in strong numbers with the Cubs in Triple-A last year.

The 32-year-old Urena made five dismal starts for the Rockies early in the 2023 season and five solid ones for the White Sox late in the season. He also pitched well for Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate. A solid arm for the Marlins in 2017-18, Urena has a 5.50 ERA in 350 1/3 MLB frames dating back to 2019. He’s had a nice spring and could be a depth piece for an injury-plagued Rangers rotation.

Rays: RHP Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi signed last week and will look to get back on track after a shoulder injury cost him the 2023 season. With the exception of an injury-wrecked 2020 season, he’s been a dependable five-inning starter dating back to 2014 (3.98 ERA in 1216 innings). The Rays’ pitching staff is dealing with plenty of injuries, and Odorizzi should be an option for the Rays early in the season.

Red Sox: 1B C.J. Cron, RHP Michael Fulmer, C Roberto Perez, LHP Joely Rodriguez

Cron has four seasons of 25-plus homers under his belt and was consistently an above-average hitter from 2014-22. Injuries tanked his 2023 season, but he has a strong track record of hitting for power — with largely even platoon splits. He’d make a nice right-handed complement to Triston Casas and/or Masataka Yoshida at first base and designated hitter, providing some insurance against an injury to either.

Perez is an all-glove backup who’s never hit much outside the juiced ball season in 2019, when he popped 24 of his 55 career homers. The Sox figure to go with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate, making him a long shot to land a roster spot.

Rodriguez signed a big league deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2023 season but only pitched 11 innings due to injury. He’s having a decent spring training — two runs on nine hits and three walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings — and has a good chance to win a spot in a patchwork Red Sox bullpen. If not, his ability to miss bats and pile up grounders would likely draw interest elsewhere.

Fulmer won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing surgery last summer. His minor league deal is a two-year contract that stretches into 2025. The two sides knew this going into the arrangement and there’s no reason to expect he’ll opt out.

Royals: RHP Tyler Duffey

Duffey was a mainstay in the division-rival Twins’ bullpen and was a high-end setup option at his peak in 2019-21, posting a 2.89 ERA across 144 frames while fanning 29.8% of his opponents. His results slipped in 2022 as he lost some life on his fastball, and he pitched just two MLB frames with the Cubs in 2023. Duffey recently had a procedure to remove a cancerous mole from his shoulder that understandably halted his baseball activity for a bit. He’s hopeful he’ll pitch again this spring, and while the larger takeaway is relief that the melanoma was discovered and quickly treated, his track record could also give him a shot to crack the Royals’ bullpen early in the season.

White Sox: RHP Jesse Chavez, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Dominic Leone, 3B/1B Mike Moustakas, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Bryan Shaw

Chavez, 40, has been excellent with the Braves in each of the past three seasons but struggled in stints with the Cubs and Angels. He’s having a tough spring with the White Sox but carries a 2.81 ERA in his past 137 2/3 MLB frames, spanning the 2021-23 seasons.

Keller has spent his entire big league career with the Royals but saw his time in Kansas City come to a rough ending. After a three-year run as a solid starter, Keller struggled in three subsequent seasons, culminating in an IL stint for symptoms indicative of thoracic outlet syndrome. He hasn’t pitched in an official spring game for the White Sox.

Leone struggled late in the 2023 season but has a cumulative 3.38 ERA in 157 innings over the past three seasons. He’s having a solid spring training, has late-inning experience, and seems like a decent bet to win a spot in a White Sox bullpen that’s been completely torn down since last summer.

Moustakas has turned in three straight below-average seasons at the plate and is struggling again with the White Sox in camp (.167/.268/.278 in 41 plate appearances). The Sox have Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn at the corners, plus Gavin Sheets as a lefty-swinging first base option (and corner outfielder) off the bench. Moose seems like a long shot to make the club.

Pillar would give the Sox a right-handed complement to lefty-hitting corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Dominic Fletcher. He’s 35 and no longer the plus-plus defensive center fielder he once was but could give them some insurance for Luis Robert Jr. in center as well. He hit .228/.248/.416 with nine homers in 206 plate appearances for the Braves last year.

Shaw pitched 45 2/3 innings for the Sox last year and delivered a respectable 4.14 ERA in that time. His production has tailed off substantially since his days as a consistent setup presence in the Cleveland bullpen — evidenced by a 5.07 ERA over his past six seasons. He’s been tagged for a dozen earned runs in 7 1/3 spring frames but does have 10 strikeouts.

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Why Jordan Montgomery May Wait Until The Season Starts To Sign

By | at March 20, 2024 3:11pm CDT

As this incredibly slow offseason has dragged on, much attention has been paid to the free agents who remained unsigned into February and March. There were many players in this group but a lot of attention was paid to the so-called “Boras Four,” which consisted of Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

The attention was understandable as they were the highest-profile of the guys languishing in the open market. At the start of the offseason, just about every outlet that predicts such things pegged those four to get lengthy nine-figure pacts, including here at MLBTR. But as the winter dragged on towards the spring, many teams claimed to be at their spending limits, either due to uncertainty around TV revenue or competitive balance tax implications.

In recent weeks, three of those four players have pivoted to short-term deals with fairly high average annual values and opt-outs. In each case, the player can pocket a sizeable salary and then return to the open market in the future if they feel the chance of netting a mega pact will be better.

Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal, in which he can opt out after each of the first two seasons. Chapman got three years and $54MM from the Giants, also with opt-outs after the first two years. Snell will join Chapman in San Francisco after signing a two-year, $62MM deal that will let him opt out after this coming season.

Montgomery’s situation is slightly different than those three in one way. The other three received and rejected a qualifying offer at the end of the 2023 season, meaning they were tied to signing penalties this winter. The penalties vary depending on whether the team is a revenue-sharing recipient or a competitive balance tax payor, but a club has to forfeit one draft pick at minimum, sometimes two picks and also international bonus pool space. Players can only receive one QO in their career, so they won’t have to worry about those penalties in future trips to free agency.

Montgomery is in the opposite situation. He has yet to receive a QO and would not currently require a signing team to forfeit anything. Players are only eligible for a QO if they spend the entirety of the just-completed season with the same club. Since the lefty was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers in the middle of the 2023 campaign, he wasn’t eligible to get a QO coming into this offseason.

That makes it somewhat complicated for him to consider the short-term, opt-out laden pacts that the other Boras guys settled for. While they all just shed their QOs and will be free from them going forward, Montgomery is currently free but could be in position to be saddled with a QO down the road. As recently as March 8, he was reportedly holding out hope of landing a lengthy seven-year deal. The fact that he remains unsigned suggests that he never got it and it’s hard to see a team making that kind of plunge at this late stage of the offseason.

Since Opening Day is now just over a week away, with most teams starting their seasons on March 28, perhaps it would be wise for him to look for the best short-term deal he can find but wait until after Opening Day to actually sign it. The collective bargaining agreement states that the QO applies to players who become free agents “after having been continuously under reserve (without interruption) to the same Club (either at the Major or Minor League level) since Opening Day of the recently completed championship season” and who have not previously received a QO from any club.

Perhaps waiting would make Montgomery more amenable to a short-term pact with opt-outs, as he wouldn’t have to worry about a qualifying offer, at least after 2024. Hypothetically, if he signed a two-year pact like Snell and decided not to trigger his opt-out, he could be given a QO after the 2025 campaign unless he was traded midseason again.

It’s also possible there would be an on-field logic to the move. Montgomery’s 188 2/3 innings in the regular season were a personal high and then he added another 31 frames in the postseason as he helped the Rangers win the World Series. Players sometimes talk about a “World Series hangover” where they experience a bit of extra fatigue in a season following a deep playoff run, since it shortens the offseason rest period. Delaying his spring ramp-up could perhaps give him some extra rest and avoid any of those hangover effects.

The flip side of this strategy is that a club could perhaps factor a future QO into the price of their contract offer. Starting with whatever dollar value they place on Montgomery as a pitcher, they might be will to add a few million to that if they feel there’s a high chance of him opting out and then netting them a future draft pick. By intentionally waiting until the season starts, Montgomery would presumably be taking that bump out of the picture.

That’s all speculation, to be clear, but it’s known that teams place internal values on draft picks. Mets owner Steve Cohen tweeted a few years ago that picks are worth up to five times their slot value to teams. Last year, picks 68-70 of the draft went to the Cubs, Giants and Braves. Those clubs had given QOs to Willson Contreras, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson, respectively, and received compensation picks when they signed elsewhere. Per MLB.com, those picks each had a slot value a bit over $1MM.

Waiting to sign in-season due to concerns around the QO isn’t unprecedented, but this would be different than past instances. Some players who rejected QOs in the past waited until after the draft was completed to sign new contracts, therefore washing away the draft pick penalties. Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel and Kendrys Morales are some of the players who signed in June, after the draft. Stephen Drew was on a path to a similar fate in 2014 before the Red Sox, his previous club, realized their chances of getting any QO compensation were dwindling and just re-signed him.

Montgomery’s situation is different in that he only needs to wait one day into the season in order to make him ineligible to receive a QO after 2024. Since the QO can negatively impact a free agent’s earning power and the season will have started for all 30 clubs by next Thursday, perhaps he could sit tight a little bit longer.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By | at March 19, 2024 11:20pm CDT

In his first offseason as White Sox GM, Chris Getz made four key trades and a series of small free agent deals as the team enters another rebuilding phase.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $20.8MM
Total spending: $30.05MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Back in October, I was skeptical of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” as part of the justification for hiring internal GM candidate Chris Getz without conducting outside interviews.  It was just too tall of an order for a team that lacked talent and has an owner averse to big free agent contracts.  Based on the moves Getz ended up making in his first offseason as GM, a quick turnaround and 2024 contention were never actually the goals.

Given Liam Hendriks’ August Tommy John surgery, the White Sox chose to decline his $15MM option for 2024, instead triggering a buyout in the same amount that will be paid out over the next decade.  The club also declined their $14MM club option on Tim Anderson, paying a $1MM buyout after finding no takers via trade.  This outcome was unsurprising after Anderson’s abysmal 2023.  The White Sox opted for a cheap defensive-minded veteran replacement at shortstop, signing free agent Paul DeJong in November.  Anderson’s eight-year White Sox career officially ended when he inked a $5MM deal with the Marlins in February.

Though Getz chose to retain manager Pedro Grifol, the Sox did turn over the coaching staff early in the offseason, bringing in Marcus Thames as hitting coach and also adding Grady Sizemore, Drew Butera, Matt Wise, and Jason Bourgeois.  Getz also dropped this memorable line to the media: “I don’t like our team.”

Getz would go on to back up that statement by giving the White Sox a major makeover.  The first strike happened in mid-November, with reliever Aaron Bummer getting shipped to Atlanta for a five-player package.  Taking advantage of Chicago’s lack of depth, four of the five players acquired were on the 40-man roster.  It was a whole lot of players the Braves didn’t need.  The biggest name, Mike Soroka, may have otherwise wound up non-tendered.  But as a $3MM flier for a threadbare White Sox rotation, Soroka fits.  Shuster provides another backend rotation candidate; he’ll start the season at Triple-A.  Given that Bummer was coming off a 6.79 ERA and rebuilding teams don’t have much need for decently-compensated relievers anyway, sending him off for depth pieces was a solid first trade for Getz.

The White Sox’s biggest free agent offseason expenditure came during the Winter Meetings with the signing of Erick Fedde.  The former Nationals top prospect, now 31, rejuvenated his career in South Korea in 2023.  Now he’s a key part of Chicago’s rotation.  The Fedde signing seems like a reasonable play for innings, with a hint of upside for a sub-4.00 ERA season.  This is very much a Rotation of Opportunity in 2024.  Perhaps nothing demonstrates that better than Garrett Crochet getting the Opening Day nod.  As James Fegan noted at Sox Machine, Crochet has 73 big league innings to his name, “it’s his first time back in [the starting pitcher] routine since essentially his sophomore year of college, and Tommy John surgery rehab and a shoulder strain didn’t make 2023 a typical platform year from the bullpen.”

A veteran backup catcher was on Getz’s shopping list this winter, given the inexperience of Korey Lee and Edgar Quero.  He found one in another deal with the Braves, who were serving as a way station for Max Stassi.  The White Sox are only on the hook for $740K of Stassi’s $7MM salary this year, so he makes for a low-risk addition.  Several weeks later, the White Sox inked Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, possibly stifling an opportunity for Lee or Quero assuming Stassi sticks.  Logically, if one of the young catchers seems ready this summer, one or both veterans will be traded.

In January, news came that Reinsdorf is seeking a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop.  Everything so far has been standard: a request for over a billion dollars in public money, promises of an economic boom around a new stadium, questionable reasoning about why the current stadium won’t work, and a vague threat that the team could be moved.  All of this is outside the scope of our Offseason In Review series, but the ballpark situation figures to hang over the team for the foreseeable future.

In February, Getz added Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks, hopefully filling the Sox’s long-standing right field vacancy in the process.  Fletcher, 26, hit well in limited action as a rookie with Arizona last year.  Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America rated Fletcher as a 40-grade prospect with a strong glove and a “line-drive swing with average bat speed.”  Projection systems suggest Fletcher’s bat is not currently MLB-caliber, despite his brief success in ’23.  Still, the bar is astoundingly low here, as the White Sox haven’t had their primary right fielder post a 1-WAR season since Avisail Garcia in 2017.  Fletcher may have the right field job out of the gate, though minor league signing Kevin Pillar will likely be lurking as his potential platoon partner or backup.

The Fletcher addition fits with Getz’s stated goal of improving the team’s defense.  Aside from Fletcher, the Sox have improved up the middle with DeJong, Nicky Lopez, and Maldonado.  Groundballers like Fedde and Soroka should appreciate that, and defense is generally much cheaper on the market than offense.  Of course, a tradeoff has been made, as offensive expectations for Fletcher, DeJong, Lopez, and Maldonado are quite low.

On the same day as the Fletcher trade, Getz dealt his best reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach, and the #69 pick in this year’s draft.  The two prospects project as a potential setup man and a fourth outfielder if things go well, and the draft pick will further boost organizational depth.  With dim prospects in the short-term, trading away relievers for quality prospects is usually a good move.  DeLoach may not have the ideal arm for right field, but as a 25-year-old who played 138 games at Triple-A last year, he could push Fletcher for playing time this year.

Of course, those departures leave the White Sox with one of the game’s shakiest-looking bullpens.  New additions Steven Wilson, John Brebbia, and Tim Hill will see high-leverage work.  The idea of Michael Kopech in the rotation seems to have been abandoned, and the once-highly-regarded righty will try to find success in relief.

Dylan Cease was the undercurrent of Getz’s entire offeason.  With two years of control remaining, Cease was seemingly shopped all winter.  Getz waited out the acquisitions of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Corbin Burnes, all pitchers who had crossover with Cease’s market.  Blake Snell didn’t reach an agreement until March 18th, and as of this writing Jordan Montgomery remains available.  The Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, and Rangers were linked to Cease at various points, but it was the Padres who swooped in to make a late deal on March 13th.

As I wrote in my subscriber-only mailbag last week, comparing the trade to the handful of rare precedents, I like the deal for the White Sox.  Aside from Wilson, something of a throw-in, Getz acquired three prospects graded 50 or 55 for Cease.  Looking at deals made for James Paxton, Joe Musgrove, and Gerrit Cole, teams generally fell short of that return.

Without Cease, the White Sox rotation has the potential to be awful.  RosterResource currently projects Crochet, Fedde, Soroka, Chris Flexen, and Nick Nastrini as the starting five.  Drew Thorpe, perhaps the key piece in the Cease trade, has a great opportunity here, but did not help his short-term chances with yesterday’s spring training outing.  The projected White Sox rotation has produced exactly two good Major League seasons to date: Soroka’s 4-WAR effort in 2019, and Flexen’s 3-WAR 2021.

Trading Cease is something of a concession the White Sox are not going to be good in 2024 or 2025.  They’re projected to win 66 games this year, and it’s hard to see them leaping into contention in ’25.  Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027.  A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return.  But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.

Should the White Sox be taking advantage of their low payroll this year to try to add prospect capital?  In a mailbag earlier this month, I explored the concept of sign-and-flips by non-contending teams, and we found success stories to be pretty rare in practice.  As Anthony Franco put it, “If the guy was any good, he wasn’t signing a low-base MLB deal with a non-contender.”  So you might suggest the White Sox should’ve landed one-year free agents like Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Severino with a mind toward flipping them, but those players might not have been interested.

Overall, this was a good first offseason for Getz, who traded three of his more marketable players aside from Robert and got respectable returns.  It’s likely he’ll continue to listen on Eloy Jimenez and would trade Yoan Moncada if he has any kind of resurgence.  As far as the season ahead, it’s going to be ugly.

How would you grade the White Sox's offseason?

  • C 30% (860)
  • D 25% (707)
  • F 21% (613)
  • B 19% (552)
  • A 4% (126)

Total votes: 2,858

 

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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By | at March 19, 2024 10:52am CDT

It’s rare for the same team to be on opposite ends of blockbuster trades within one offseason. This Padres front office isn’t afraid to break convention. San Diego was the traditional “seller” in the winter’s biggest trade as they shed a lot of money. That didn’t stop them from dealing a trio of well-regarded prospects to upgrade their rotation in a late-spring strike.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $9.35MM
Total spending: $50MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Under A.J. Preller, it’s fair to presume the Padres are in for a headline-grabbing offseason. Yet while the past few years had been defined by major acquisitions, most of this winter was about departures. Late in the 2023 season, it emerged that the Padres were planning to cut spending. That came on the heels of Diamond Sports Group abandoning their local broadcasting contract midseason and amidst reports about the Padres falling out of compliance with MLB’s debt service ratio.

San Diego had key free agents Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo; option decisions on Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha which they’d decline; and Juan Soto projected for the largest arbitration salary in league history. (Hader and Snell declined qualifying offers, so the Padres landed two draft choices after the fourth round for their departures.) It was clear there’d be a lot of roster turnover. Before they could even address that, the organization needed to settle on its leadership structure. Tension mounted between Preller and manager Bob Melvin towards the end of their underwhelming season. While they made some effort to smooth the relationship going into the winter, everyone decided a break was ultimately in the organization’s best interest.

The Padres allowed Melvin to interview for and accept the managerial role with the Giants without demanding any compensation from their division rivals. They reportedly considered former Angels skipper Phil Nevin and previous Cubs manager David Ross but ultimately stayed in-house. San Diego moved Mike Shildt from an advisory position in the front office back to the dugout, giving him his second managerial opportunity at the big league level. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty also interviewed for the position. When San Diego went with Shildt instead, they let Flaherty depart to serve as Craig Counsell’s top lieutenant with the Cubs. The Padres left the position vacant for 2024.

Of course, one would be remiss to discuss the Padres’ leadership structure without mentioning Peter Seidler. The San Diego owner passed away at age 63 in the middle of November after a battle with illness. Few owners were as widely respected around the league and by their fanbase as Seidler, who consistently approved star acquisitions and ran the organization’s player payroll as high as third in the majors entering last season. This was a franchise that ranked among the league’s bottom-five spenders throughout most of the 2010s. It didn’t always work, but there was little questioning Seidler’s commitment to giving the team a chance to win. Eric Kutsenda took over as the organization’s control person.

It surely wasn’t easy for the front office to step right back into daily operations after Seidler’s death, but the calendar unfortunately didn’t afford them much time. That week, they were faced with a handful of key arbitration decisions. The Padres made the easy call to non-tender Austin Nola after a disappointing tenure in San Diego. Whether they might’ve done the same with reliever Scott Barlow won’t be known, as the Friars found a taker for the righty just before the non-tender deadline.

San Diego flipped Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. It was a one-for-one bullpen swap that saved the Friars around $6MM. De Los Santos doesn’t have the kind of swing-and-miss potential that Barlow offers and is probably better suited for middle relief, but he was a capable reliever for Cleveland over the past two seasons. Given their payroll restrictions, adding a more affordable reliever whom they control for three years was a tidy bit of business for San Diego.

Once the non-tender deadline passed, much of the league’s attention turned to two players: Shohei Ohtani and Soto. (The Padres were never serious threats for the former.) The chance for a second Soto blockbuster in less than 18 months was one of the offseason’s biggest storylines. It quickly became clear that the Yankees were the favorites. The sides pulled off the massive deal at the Winter Meetings.

San Diego packaged Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Bronx for a pitching-heavy return. They added Michael King, who excelled in a limited stint out of the New York rotation late last season. He stepped into the staff behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Righties Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez have big league experience and could battle for spots at the back end of the rotation. At the time, it seemed that pitching prospect Drew Thorpe might soon join them at Petco Park. The Friars also landed Kyle Higashioka as a backup to young catcher Luis Campusano, allowing them to let Gary Sánchez depart in free agency.

Any Soto trade was unquestionably going to make the Padres worse. With so many gaps to plug on the roster, they weren’t prepared to carry him on an arbitration salary that eventually landed at $31MM. The volume approach allowed them to backfill some of the rotation depth they lost in free agency, but it subtracted two-thirds of their starting outfield. The Padres were never going to be able to replace Soto with a player of comparable quality. Yet they also opted against the traditional rebuilding return, pursuing a quantity-driven package of major league ready talent whom they control cheaply for multiple years.

Prioritizing pitching meant leaving massive questions in the outfield. The Padres never really answered them. They were linked to star KBO  center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, but it quickly became clear his asking price was going to be well beyond their comfort level. He eventually ended up with the Giants on a $113MM pact. San Diego also showed reported interest in Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor but, thus far, their only major league outfield transaction was to bring back Jurickson Profar on a $1MM deal.

Profar will likely be the Opening Day starter in left field. Tommy Pham remains unsigned and has been linked to a San Diego reunion throughout the winter. His camp and the Padres are reportedly discussing a deal in the $3-4MM range. If Pham signs, he’d bump Profar down a peg on the depth chart. That obviously won’t happen before tomorrow’s regular season opener in South Korea, though.

Whoever is in left field will share time with Fernando Tatis Jr. and 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is calling the latter directly from Double-A on the heels of a monster Spring Training. He’ll be the team’s starting center fielder despite never playing there in a minor league game. It’s a risky move borne partially out of necessity after the Padres missed on their other center field targets. At the same time, it’s not an uncharacteristic roll of the dice for an organization that hasn’t shied away from aggressively promoting its top prospects. José Azocar is likely to occupy the fourth outfield role, although minor league signee Tyler Wade could also see some time on the grass.

While San Diego’s pursuit of Lee didn’t get far, the Padres remained one of the league’s more active teams in Asia. After successfully pursuing players like Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and Martinez in previous offseasons, San Diego made another pair of acquisitions from the Asian pro leagues. They added one player apiece from Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization to their bullpen.

Left-hander Yuki Matsui was the bigger signing, as he landed a surprising five-year, $28MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after years three and four. Matsui is coming off three straight sub-2.00 ERA showings with plus strikeout rates in Japan. Evaluators are split on whether his stuff translates to a late-inning role in MLB, but the Padres clearly expect him to find success. While Matsui was a little behind in camp with back tightness, he should be on the Opening Day roster and could compete with Suarez for the closer role.

Woo Suk Go signed a two-year, $4.5MM pact after a seven-year run in the KBO. He’s young and throws hard, but the modest price tag reflects a general agreement that he projects more as a middle reliever than a high-leverage arm. Go was a closer in the KBO but had inconsistent command.

The bullpen overhaul didn’t stop there. The Padres added ground-ball specialist Wandy Peralta to the middle innings. They signed the former Yankee to a four-year, $16.5MM contract that allows him to opt out after each season. The contract length and overall guarantee were above expectations, but that’s a tradeoff San Diego made to keep his annual salaries low. Peralta has been particularly effective against same-handed hitters over the past couple years, providing a matchup option for Shildt in the middle to late innings.

San Diego also made a trio of waiver claims. They snagged Jeremiah Estrada from the Cubs, brought back former top prospect Luis Patiño from the White Sox, and grabbed righty Logan Gillaspie from the Red Sox. The Padres selected Stephen Kolek out of the Mariners system in the Rule 5 draft. They might not be able to keep everyone from that group. Patiño is out of minor league options and seems likely to be designated for assignment, as he wasn’t included on San Diego’s travel group to Seoul. Kolek can’t be sent down because of his Rule 5 status. Pedro Avila is out of options himself.

Even if the Padres move on from Patiño, they could have five or six new faces in the relief corps. Matsui, Go, De Los Santos, Peralta and Estrada all seem ticketed for key roles. In addition to the free agent departures of Hader, Martinez and Luis García, the Padres subtracted a couple relievers in trade. They flipped Ray Kerr to the Braves to get Atlanta to take on $4MM of Matt Carpenter’s underwater deal. Steven Wilson seemed ticketed for a middle relief spot as recently as last week, but he was an ancillary part of a late-offseason stunner.

Trade talk surrounding Dylan Cease had quieted going into Spring Training. That changed last week, as Chicago reengaged with teams like the Rangers and Yankees in an effort to move the righty before Opening Day. The Padres were initially viewed as more of a peripheral team in the Cease market, but Preller and his staff pushed back in for another star player.

Thorpe’s stay in the organization lasted all of a few months. The key prospect received in the Soto trade wound up headlining a Cease package that also included upper minors righty Jairo Iriarte, Low-A outfield prospect Samuel Zavala, and Wilson. Cease steps into the upper half of the rotation and adds a third established arm alongside Darvish and Musgrove. King slides into the fourth spot, leaving one season-opening role available for Brito, Vásquez, Avila or Matt Waldron.

San Diego dealt a trio of quality but not top-tier prospects and a decent reliever with four years of club control. Cease is making an $8MM salary that fit within their reduced budget. He’s eligible for arbitration once more. Even if he doesn’t recapture the form that made him Cy Young runner-up in 2022, Cease has been exceptionally durable over the past few seasons. He owns a 3.58 ERA going back to the start of 2020 and has a power arsenal that misses bats at an above-average rate. Cease should be a fixture in the San Diego rotation for the next two years, although it’d be foolish to count out San Diego pivoting and putting him back on the market this summer or next offseason if the team doesn’t perform up to expectations.

The one area of the roster that was not dramatically overhauled, at least in terms of personnel, was the infield. The Padres floated Jake Cronenworth in talks but didn’t find a trade partner. That’s no surprise, as he’s coming off a down season and entering the first year of the seven-year extension that he signed last spring. Kim was a much more in-demand trade target heading into the final season of his four-year deal.

The Padres decided not to move him, at least not to another team. San Diego is pushing Kim back up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, however. Xander Bogaerts is flipping to the other side of the bag, as he’ll become a second baseman for the first time in his career. It was always expected that Bogaerts would move off shortstop fairly early into his 11-year free agent deal, although few would’ve predicted that to happen after only one season. Manny Machado will eventually slot back in at third base. He’s likely to be limited to DH duty for the first couple weeks as he continues working back from last fall’s elbow surgery.

San Diego has Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten as short-term options to cover third base, but they may turn to yet another prospect. Former 13th-round pick Graham Pauley has dramatically elevated his stock in pro ball. He’s coming off a .308/.393/.539 batting line between High-A and Double-A. The Duke product continued to rake this spring, turning in a .314/.400/.486 slash over 16 games. The Padres included Pauley in their travel group to Seoul, suggesting they’re considering jumping him directly from Double-A, just as they plan to do with Merrill.

The “offseason” work might not be 100% complete as they try to push a Pham deal across the finish line, but the Padres are a few hours from kicking off the regular season. They’ll do so with a team that looks a lot different than the one that finished 2023. Most outside expectations aren’t as high as they were at this time last year, but the late push for Cease shows that the organization still expects to compete for a playoff spot. Plenty of top-end talent remains. The question is whether the roster is deep enough to hold up over a 162-game stretch.

How would you grade the Padres' offseason?

  • B 44% (1,189)
  • C 30% (810)
  • D 11% (305)
  • A 9% (246)
  • F 5% (148)

Total votes: 2,698

183 comments
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2023-24 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By | at March 18, 2024 7:15pm CDT

The Mariners’ front office operated under tight payroll restrictions from ownership in light of uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract this offseason. That didn’t stop “Trader Jerry” Dipoto, the team’s president of baseball operations, from aggressively overhauling the roster with a series of trades colored by monetary implications. (This year’s Mariners Review might include the lengthiest “trades and waiver claims” section I’ve ever written in a decade of doing these reviews.)

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $17.3MM
Total spend: $29.3MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Waiver Claims

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It became clear fairly early in the offseason that despite the Mariners’ recent success, including the end of their two-decade playoff drought in 2022, payroll wouldn’t be rising much in 2024. Like so many clubs around the league, their offseason dealings were colored by uncertainty surrounding the team’s television rights. While Seattle wasn’t planning to cut payroll like many other clubs around the game, the Seattle Times reported in early December that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, general manager Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office received a smaller budget than anticipated from ownership.

That didn’t stop plenty of speculation regarding Seattle-area native Blake Snell, but a big free agent splash like that never seemed likely given the front office’s apparent budgetary restrictions. Instead, Dipoto went with a familiar approach: operating primarily on the trade market. Even by his own standards, this was an offseason for the ages in terms of wheeling and dealing. The Mariners made a staggering 12 trades over the course of their offseason.

Perhaps most remarkable about that progression of trades isn’t the sheer volume but rather the fact that Seattle held onto its entire crop of vaunted young pitchers. Entering the offseason, it seemed quite likely that one of Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Emerson Hancock could be dealt as the team looked to bolster other areas of the roster. Controllable starting pitching is always in demand, and there was less of it available this season than in years past. The Mariners, facing needs at designated hitter, second base, third base and in the outfield, could very likely have moved a young starter and filled multiple holes in one fell swoop.

That wasn’t meant to be, however. Dipoto would reveal that he unsurprisingly received considerable interest in his young pitchers but “never liked the way it looked” before adding that holding onto the entire group as always “Plan A.”

Even if the plan was to hold onto that group, changes were clearly needed. Dipoto hinted at a possible retooling early in the winter suggesting that he hoped add some more contact-oriented bats to the roster in the wake of last year’s prodigious strikeout totals. While the Mariners achieved this to some extent, that desire certainly didn’t inform all of their offseason moves, as many of the team’s new acquisitions still strike out at alarming rates.

Eugenio Suarez was the first domino to fall in this regard. He’d been a solid contributor for the Mariners in each of the two prior seasons but struck out in 31% of his plate appearances along the way and saw his power output dip in 2023. Suarez led the American League in strikeouts in both 2022 and 2023. A substantial dip in his defensive grades could well cause his value to plummet, as he was effectively a league-average bat in ’23 (102 wRC+). His contact rate on pitches in the zone sat more than five percentage points shy of league-average, and on pitches off the plate, it was nearly 13 percentage points shy of the mean. Suarez is making just enough contact and playing just sharp enough defense to remain an above-average regular, but his margin for error is thinning.

In return for Suarez, the Mariners got one of the game’s hardest-throwing young relievers, Carlos Vargas, and a backup catcher who strikes out at a staggering 35% clip: Seby Zavala. While Zavala was acquired for his glove, not his bat, it was a bit curious to see the team cite a desire to improve contact skills and then acquire such a whiff-heavy backstop.  Cal Raleigh will work a larger workload than most starting catchers, but Zavala’s whiffs are still prodigious. For a Mariners club that is as good as any in the game — maybe better than any other — at maximizing bullpen performance, getting a power arm like Vargas is particularly intriguing. Still, the $12MM in cost savings in this deal was surely a motivating factor.

Replacing Suarez at the hot corner will be fellow trade pickup Luis Urias and holdover Josh Rojas, whom the M’s acquired last summer in exchange for Paul Sewald (a move that, in retrospect, perhaps foreshadowed the current offseason’s payroll restrictions, when considering Sewald’s arbitration salary). Urias was a buy-low grab who posted a solid .244/.320/.446 slash in 2021-22 with the Brewers before an injury-ruined ’23 season. In hindsight, the Mariners might regret committing $5MM to him so early, as veteran infielders like Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario signed for a year and $1.5MM apiece late in spring training, but their price tags falling to such extreme levels was generally unforeseeable.

The Suarez trade irked Mariners fans, as it seemed clearly financially motivated to at least some extent, but the trade of Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales smacked even more heavily of a salary dump. The M’s acquired a former second-rounder, Cole Phillips, who’d yet to pitch professionally due to injury and a change-of-scenery former prospect in Jackson Kowar. Both have since undergone Tommy John surgery.

Kelenic was a symbol of hope during the Mariners’ last rebuild — touted as a potential outfield cornerstone alongside current face of the franchise Julio Rodriguez. Things simply haven’t panned out that way, however. Kelenic has looked flummoxed by MLB pitching on a repeated basis, particularly fellow lefties. He had a hot start in 2023 but faded immensely before breaking his foot when he kicked a water cooler following a strikeout in a key situation. The Mariners shed $24.25MM of payroll in that deal and received little in return. But dealing Kelenic and his 31.7% strikeout rate did mesh with Dipoto’s goal of improving the team’s contact.

Between the departures of Suarez, Kelenic and free agent Teoscar Hernandez (who signed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal), the M’s bid adieu to a trio who combined for 1788 plate appearances and each struck out in 31% of their plate appearances (or more). In trading Suarez, Kelenic, Gonzales and White, the Mariners also trimmed nearly $37MM off the long-term payroll.

Those weren’t the only cost-driven deals of the winter, however. Dipoto shipped the final three seasons of Robbie Ray’s $115MM contract to the Giants in a trade bringing back old friend Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners know just how productive Haniger can be when at his best but are also plenty familiar with his susceptibility to injuries and strikeouts. As with Garver, he’s not a panacea for the team’s contact woes, but Haniger has never punched out at a clip higher than 2019’s 28.6%. He was at 28.4% in 2023 while battling through an oblique strain, a back strain and another fluky injury: a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a pitch.

Outside of last year, Haniger has been an above-average offensive player in every full season of his career. He’ll probably never return to his peak 2017-18 form, but even 2022’s .246/.308/.429 slash was 13% better than average, per wRC+. The Mariners would likely be fine with that level of output, and anything extra would be a bonus.

The Haniger/DeSclafani/Ray trade also set the stage for one of the Mariners’ biggest acquisitions of the offseason. It took several months to come together, but the M’s and Twins finally made good on what was a clear on-paper match from a trade partner standpoint. Seattle acquired switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins, sending back DeSclafani to provide some pitching depth, righty Justin Topa to beef up the Minnesota bullpen, and a pair of prospects: Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Gonzalez is particularly well-regarded, landing on a handful of top-100 lists this winter. Bowen joined the back end of the Twins’ top 30 prospects. The Mariners included the $6MM of salary relief the Giants provided for DeSclafani and kicked in another $2MM, leaving the Twins on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary.

The Mariners weakened their bullpen, thinned out their rotation depth a bit and traded one of their best outfield prospects to get the trade done. From a roster construction standpoint, however, it worked for both parties. Seattle’s pitching is a strength, while second base was a glaring need. Mariners second basemen hit .205/.294/.313 last season. Only four teams (Giants, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox) saw their second basemen turn in a worse wRC+ mark than Seattle’s collective 75.

Going from that dearth of production to Polanco, who’s slashed .267/.337/.458 over his past 2362 plate appearances in the majors (117 wRC+) is a massive upgrade. Like Haniger, he’s had some recent injury issues, but Polanco is a balanced switch-hitter who’s signed for just $10.5MM in 2024 with a $12MM club option for the 2025 season. Knee and hamstring injuries limited him to 80 games last year, but he’s a clearly above-average hitter and capable defender at second base. His 18.2% career strikeout rate should help the Mariners’ contact goals, though it’s worth noting he did whiff in a career-high 25.7% of his plate appearances last year.

Sending Topa to Minnesota in that trade on the heels of his 2023 breakout — 69 innings, 23 holds, 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 56.7% grounder rate — may also have served as a catalyst for one of the Mariners’ most uncharacteristic moves in recent memory. Seattle has thrived at turning minor league signees, waiver pickups and other little-noticed acquisitions into impact relievers. Topa himself is an example of it. They’ve become so prominent at doing so that the team has even coined the “Steckenrider Bucket” term — a nod to them signing Drew Steckenrider to a minor league pact a few years back and enjoying a dominant season of setup work from the journeyman righty.

Their February acquisition of White Sox closer Gregory Santos, however, marked the rare instance in which the Mariners paid a steep price in a trade for a reliever. It’s easy enough to see why Santos appealed to them. He pitched 66 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball in front of a terrible defense, striking out 22.8% of his opponents against a 5.9% walk rate. Santos kept the ball on the ground at a 52.5% clip, averaged a blistering 98.8 mph on his heater, induced swinging strikes (13.4%) and chases off the plate (34.9%) at high clips, and regularly avoided dangerous contact (34.9% hard-hit rate, 1% barrel rate). Beyond that, he’s controllable for five more years and not arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season.

Still, sending not only prospects Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa, but also a Competitive Balance draft pick that’ll slot in at 69th overall this summer, marked a divergence from the Mariners’ typical methods. Perhaps the M’s grew weary of mining for hidden gems on an annual basis. Perhaps they simply (and quite understandably) loved Santos’ arm and were enamored of the idea of pairing him with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in the long term. Whatever the rationale, it gives the Mariners a potential three-headed bullpen monster for the ages. Both Brash and Santos are banged up and will begin the season on the injured list, but neither is believed to be facing a monthslong absence. At some point in the not-too-distant future, that trio will be locking down leads for manager Scott Servais. It’s a fun group on which to dream.

Polanco’s acquisition also helped replenish some of the depth the Mariners lost when trading Jose Caballero to the Rays in exchange for slugger Luke Raley. The 27-year-old Caballero debuted and usurped Kolten Wong as the starting second baseman, though he faded quite a bit after a hot start. Flipping him for Raley adds a considerable influx of left-handed power to the Seattle lineup — Raley homered 19 times in just 406 plate appearances and posted a stout .241 ISO — but does also set the club back in terms of contact skills. Raley fanned at a 31.5% rate in 2023. He hasn’t hit lefties at all in his brief MLB career (.206/.257/.324), so he’ll likely be platooned with Dylan Moore or serve as a bench bat, if the club prefers to give hot-hitting Dominic Canzone the first crack at the larger portion of the left field job. Either way, Raley’s out of options, so he’ll be on the roster.

We’re deep into this look back at the Seattle offseason but haven’t even yet touched on the team’s free agent dealings. That’s both a testament to the astonishing volume of trades and also a reflection of a fairly modest offseason in terms of free agent activity. However, the Mariners did shed a good chunk of money in the trades of Suarez, Kelenic/White/Gonzales, and Ray — as much as $43MM overall. That money has since been largely reinvested into the roster.

To replace Hernandez, Seattle signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. Garver comes with his own strikeout concerns, but not to the extent of the players he’ll effectively be replacing. He’s fanned in 25.6% of his career plate appearances (24.2% over the past two seasons in Texas) and, more importantly, has quietly been one of the best-hitting catchers in the game when healthy.

Seattle will use Garver as the primary DH, though he could potentially suit up for a few games behind the plate depending on the health of Raleigh and Zavala. This was a bat-driven move, however. Over the past three seasons, Garver has hit .249/.347/.479 (128 wRC+) with 42 homers in 802 plate appearances. He’s a career .272/.377/.509 hitter against lefties. He’s been injured often, doesn’t run well and fans more than the average hitter, so there are some concerns. But the Mariners will hope regular DH at-bats keep him in the lineup more frequently — and if they’re right, he has more than enough bat to fill that role.

The aforementioned injuries to Santos, Brash and Kowar in camp proved too much even for a deep Seattle bullpen to withstand without making any noise. As those three relievers were banged up, the Mariners turned back to the free agent market and signed Ryne Stanek — one of the best remaining relievers — to a one-year, $4MM deal. He’s coming off a down season in terms of ERA and strikeout rate, but Stanek posted the first sub-10% walk rate of his career in 2023 and is yet another power-armed reliever with a fastball that sits north of 98 mph. Each of Munoz, Brash and Santos top 98 mph on average, as well.

Seattle’s only other free agent pickup, Austin Voth, is more in line with their traditional bullpen acquisitions. He inked a $1.3MM deal and will open the season as a swingman. The 31-year-old once looked like a potential long-term rotation option with the Nationals but never found consistency in D.C. He was designated for assignment in 2022, thrived down the stretch after landing in Baltimore (3.04 ERA in 22 appearances, including 17 starts), but couldn’t replicate that success in 2023 (5.19 ERA in 34 2/3 innings). The Mariners will be his third club, and if they can get Voth right, he’ll be controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The Mariners overhauled their lineup, essentially swapping out Hernandez, Suarez, Kelenic, Caballero, Wong, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy and AJ Pollock for a group including Polanco, Haniger, Garver, Raley, Urias and Zavala. It’s not a perfect lineup still, the core of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Ty France — who’ll ideally have a bounceback season — was always going to be the engine driving a contending Mariners club. The new group might not represent as dramatic a reduction in strikeouts as the front office hoped, but this collection of hitters should indeed put the ball in play more frequently.

And for all that turnover, the Mariners made it work without parting with any of their vaunted young starting pitchers or radically increasing payroll. Trading Miller or Woo for a bat, then signing Snell and Matt Chapman might have been a more straightforward means of operating, but those types of expenditures were never in the cards, given ownership’s budget.

The Mariners kept their core in tact, replaced a good bit of any lost production from the departures of Suarez and Hernandez, and did so while operating within a pretty tight set of financial restrictions. They may not be AL West favorites, but this group should be competitive again and the lineup looks solid, even if it’s a wildly different group than they trotted out a year ago. The biggest acquisitions — Polanco, Garver, Santos — are all signed/controlled through at least 2025 as well, making this whirlwind offseason one that’ll impact them beyond the current campaign.

How would you grade the Mariners' offseason?

  • B 48% (1,650)
  • C 28% (986)
  • A 12% (420)
  • D 8% (275)
  • F 4% (130)

Total votes: 3,461

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2023-24 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

By | at March 18, 2024 3:20pm CDT

The Rockies won 59 games last season and made almost no significant additions. They can expect some internal improvements, but this should be one of the worst teams in the National League.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $3MM
Total spending: $3.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Rockies got a jump on their offseason just before it began. While the Rox were long since eliminated from playoff contention, the regular season wasn’t quite over when Colorado signed Charlie Blackmon to a one-year extension on September 29. That the Rox wanted to keep the career-long member of the organization for a 14th season wasn’t surprising. The price point, on the other hand, was unexpected. Colorado guaranteed Blackmon $13MM, an odd decision considering he’d been pushed mostly to designated hitter and has been a good, not great, offensive player over the past few years.

Paying an above-market price to prevent Blackmon from getting to free agency seemed a questionable move on day one. It looks even worse considering how the offseason transpired. Colorado’s front office can be forgiven for not anticipating the free agent market for hitters of Blackmon’s ilk would be down. Yet it’s tough to justify in the context of apparent organization payroll restrictions. Pending contract selections of players who are in camp on minor league deals, Blackmon’s salary accounts for more than half the financial commitments that Colorado made this winter.

No team did less in free agency. The Rox’s only major league signings were backup catcher Jacob Stallings and depth starter Dakota Hudson. Both players had been non-tendered by their previous teams. The Rockies announced the signings, which were worth $3.5MM combined, in tandem on January 5. Stallings is a fine backup catcher who had previous success when paired with Colorado’s current starter, Elías Díaz, in Pittsburgh. Hudson keeps the ball on the ground and had some early success with the Cardinals before falling off. He’s an alright rebound target, but his acquisition isn’t going to dramatically change the pitching staff.

The lack of free agent spending might be less notable had Colorado made significant moves on the trade market. They made one trade all winter. That was a buy-low flier on righty Cal Quantrill, who’ll get a spot in the season-opening rotation. Colorado took on a fairly significant $6.55MM arbitration salary in what was largely a financially motivated swap for the Guardians. The Rox sent former seventh-round pick Kody Huff, who projects as a depth catcher, back to Cleveland.

It’s a solid addition. Quantrill didn’t have much success in 2023, but that could be attributable to recurring shoulder issues. The former eighth overall pick is only a season removed from turning in a 3.38 ERA over a full set of 32 starts. Even at his best, Quantrill hasn’t missed many bats. He has plus command and has shown the ability to mostly stay off barrels, though. Colorado can control him through 2025 via arbitration. For little more than a willingness to tender him a contract, he’s a worthwhile flier for a team that entered the winter with almost no starting pitching.

The problem is that Quantrill and Hudson were the only rotation options whom Colorado added to the 40-man roster. It leaves them with arguably the worst group of starting pitchers in the majors. Kyle Freeland is reliable but has never come close to replicating his sterling 2018 season, when he turned in a 2.85 ERA over 33 starts. His stuff has regressed in recent seasons and he allowed more than five earned runs per nine a year ago. Freeland’s velocity has spiked this spring, which is promising, but he’s still miscast as a staff ace.

Beyond him, it’s a host of rebound candidates or development hopefuls. Quantrill will occupy a spot in the middle of the rotation. So will lefty Austin Gomber, who has been inconsistent but showed reasonably well in the second half of last season. Fourth starter Ryan Feltner has an ERA above 6.00 in 32 MLB appearances. Hudson and Peter Lambert (who owns a 6.47 career ERA) are competing for the fifth spot. It’s far from an inspiring group.

Things could look a bit better in 2025, when Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela should be back after Tommy John rehabs. For the upcoming season, skipper Bud Black could have a hard time getting enough innings out of this group. That’d put a lot of strain on a bullpen that, while similarly thin, has some promise towards the back end.

Colorado can hope for better out of Tyler Kinley after a healthy offseason. The righty was brilliant early in 2022 before elbow surgery knocked him out for more than a calendar year. While he struggled late last season, it’s understandable if he hadn’t shaken off the rust. He’s competing with hard-throwing righty Justin Lawrence for the ninth inning.

Colorado grabbed long man Jalen Beeks off waivers from the Rays. He posted an ERA near six last season but had a 2.80 ERA with an above-average 28% strikeout rate as recently as 2022. The Rox took righty Anthony Molina from the Tampa Bay system in the Rule 5 draft. Right-hander Jake Bird returns after tying for the MLB lead with 84 1/3 relief innings a year ago. He posted a solid 4.27 ERA behind a 54.2% ground-ball percentage. Colorado lost Brent Suter to the Reds in free agency, maybe opening a spot in the Opening Day bullpen for a minor league signee like John Curtiss or Geoff Hartlieb.

While the Rockies were surprisingly quiet in sitting out the pitching market, they did even less to address the position player group. Beyond Stallings, the only major league pickup was old friend Sam Hilliard, whom Colorado claimed off waivers in Spring Training. He’s probably competing with minor league signee Bradley Zimmer for a bench job. Hilliard and Zimmer each hit left-handed and are capable of playing center field.

Adding a player of that ilk was a goal for the front office. Starting center fielder Brenton Doyle hits from the right side. He’s an excellent defender but turned in a .203/.250/.353 batting line as a rookie. Right fielder Sean Bouchard is also a right-handed batter. While the UCLA product has posted excellent offensive numbers in a small big league sample, he soon turns 28 and has all of 48 MLB games under his belt. It’s no surprise the Rox wanted another option in case either Doyle or Bouchard stumbles. There’s not as much question in left field, where Nolan Jones had a strong campaign and looks like one of the organization’s most promising players.

Blackmon could occasionally see corner outfield work but will primarily DH. Kris Bryant is moving to first base for the most part as Colorado tries to keep their $182MM signee healthier. Other than that, the starting infield is unchanged. Brendan Rodgers will be back at second base, hopefully with better results than he managed late last summer after returning from shoulder surgery.

Ryan McMahon and Ezequiel Tovar are an excellent defensive tandem on the left side. The Rox will want to see more from the latter offensively. Tovar was a top prospect but had a middling rookie season as a hitter, largely thanks to a very aggressive approach. Still just 22, it’s possible he develops a bit more selectivity in his second extended look at big league pitching.

Stallings replaces Austin Wynns and Brian Serven as the backup catcher behind Díaz. The out-of-options Elehuris Montero should crack the MLB roster as a corner infielder and bench bat. The Rockies non-tendered utilityman Harold Castro, likely clearing a path for Alan Trejo to get back to the big leagues as a depth middle infielder. It’s a bit surprising that Colorado didn’t take a non-roster flier on a veteran who could back up Rodgers and Tovar. Perhaps that’s something they’ll look to address as players trigger opt-outs from minor league deals with other teams on the eve of Opening Day.

That may not be the team’s most pressing goal of the next couple weeks. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reported over the weekend that the Rockies and Black were in discussions about another contract extension. The Rox have extended the veteran skipper on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons. He’s signed through 2024, which will be his eighth season at the helm. Colorado is among the sport’s most loyal organizations and has stuck by Black, who certainly hasn’t been given the most talented rosters with which to work.

Aside from a possible managerial extension, it seems fair to presume any late-spring moves would be minor in nature. The Rockies were content to run back the vast majority of last year’s team, which lost a franchise-record 103 games. That’s a reflection of a payroll saddled with underwater investments in Bryant, Freeland and Senzatela (in addition to the $10MM which they still owe the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade). The Rox were also hit by the broadcasting challenges facing a large portion of the league. AT&T Sports abandoned their local TV deal at the end of last season, cutting off a source of revenue that reportedly paid the team around $57MM last year. MLB is distributing the team’s games in-market for 2024.

Beyond the revenue challenges, the Rockies still haven’t shown a clear path to putting a competitive roster on the field. That might be easier to visualize later in the season if prospects like Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez, Drew Romo and Zac Veen get to the big leagues. 2022 college draftee Sterlin Thompson might not be much further off. The Rockies took a flier on Chase Dollander with last year’s ninth overall selection to add the highest-ceiling pitching prospect they’ve had in the organization in some time. They’ll pick third in the upcoming draft and appear headed for high odds of another lottery pick in 2025.

That’s probably of diminishing solace for a fanbase that has seen the team finish in fourth or fifth in the NL West five years running. On paper, there’s a huge gap between Colorado and everyone else in their division yet again. Aside from Todd Helton’s Hall of Fame induction, this will probably be another tough summer for Rockies fans.

How would you grade the Rockies' offseason?

  • F 59% (1,530)
  • D 28% (721)
  • C 9% (242)
  • A 2% (50)
  • B 1% (38)

Total votes: 2,581

 

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals

Hitters Approaching Significant Career Milestones

By | at March 18, 2024 9:23am CDT

This post is sponsored by Stathead.  We use Stathead, powered by Baseball Reference, to find interesting stats in our articles. Stathead has easy-to-use discovery tools to take you inside the BR database. Try it for free today!

The 2024 season is just days away. It’s a time of renewed hope for at least the vast majority of teams. It also opens the opportunity for a few veteran players to continue building on what have already been very accomplished careers, some of which should happen early in the year.

Hits

Among active players, Joey Votto leads the way with 2135 career hits. Votto is on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays and might start the season in Triple-A. Freeman will be back in the middle of a loaded Dodger lineup. While he won’t reach any notable round numbers this season — he has a shot to get to 2500 by the end of the ’25 season if he stays healthy — he’ll continue his ascent up the leaderboard in the next few months. Freeman needs only 51 more hits to surpass the original Billy Hamilton and climb into the top 200 on the all-time list. If he tops 200 hits for the second straight season, he’d pull alongside Eddie Mathews into the top 150 by year’s end.

Goldschmidt is 91 hits away from reaching the 2000 club. He’d almost certainly be the 297th player to get to that threshold, depending on whether Evan Longoria decides to continue playing. Longo is only 70 knocks away from that mark but was undecided on whether he’ll give things another go at last check. Even if Longoria does return, Goldschmidt could surpass him on the career leaderboard within a couple months. The 2022 NL MVP hasn’t had a stint on the injured list in almost a decade. If that continues, he should pick up hit #2000 sometime around the All-Star Break.

Notable players approaching 1500 hits: Mookie Betts (1485), Starling Marte (1470), Justin Turner (1461), Giancarlo Stanton (1454), Nick Castellanos (1451), Salvador Pérez (1411)

Home Runs

Stanton is the only active player with more than 400 career homers. There aren’t any traditional milestones upcoming but a 30-homer showing would put him in rare territory. Cal Ripken Jr. currently sits 50th all-time with 431 longballs. Stanton isn’t a lock to get there this year, as his overall production has plummeted over the past two seasons. Still, he topped 30 in both 2021 and ’22 and hit another 24 last year despite the worst numbers of his career.

Trout is the only player with a realistic shot to join Stanton in the 400-club this year, as he sits 32 away from that mark. After Votto and Longoria, Goldschmidt is next among active players at 60 homers away. Trout only hit 18 homers a year ago thanks to a hamate fracture in his left wrist. He’s only one season removed from popping 40, though. He’ll need to stay healthy, but he could get to 400 career homers in August or September.

Goldy will need to wait until 2025 to have a chance at the 400-homer plateau, but he’s nearing a notable spot on the leaderboard. With his ninth homer this year, he’d surpass George Foster and move into the top 100 in MLB history. As is the case with the hits milestone, Longoria could complicate this. Longo is at 342 career homers, although it’s unlikely he’ll hit seven more before Goldschmidt picks up his ninth of the season.

McCutchen and Rizzo should each join the 300-homer club early in the year. McCutchen almost certainly would’ve gotten there late last season were it not for a partially torn Achilles suffered in early September. The Pirates begin the season on a seven-game road trip before welcoming the Orioles to PNC Park in their home opener.

Rizzo also suffered an injury that kept him from the 300-homer plateau last year. After a torrid start, he suffered through a dismal slump related to what the Yankees believe was post-concussion syndrome arising out of a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28. They shut him down in August. McCutchen and Rizzo should become the 12th and 13th active players (including Votto, Longoria and J.D. Martinez) to get to the 300-homer mark.

No one else is knocking on the doorstep of 300, although there could be one more late-season entrant to the group. Aaron Judge enters the year with 257 career longballs. A 43-homer showing is certainly within the range of outcomes if he stays healthy.

Notable players approaching 200 homers: Joey Gallo (198), Brandon Belt (194), Christian Yelich (193), Pete Alonso (192), Randal Grichuk (191), Justin Turner (187), Joc Pederson (186), Kris Bryant (182), Max Muncy (180), Cody Bellinger (178), Javier Báez (175), Xander Bogaerts (175)

RBI

There are nine active players who have driven in more than 1000 runs over the course of their careers: Longoria, Votto, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, McCutchen, Stanton, Carlos Santana and Martinez. The next five up all have a chance to join them, although it’d take a monster year from Harper to drive in 111. (Harper has topped that once, picking up 114 RBI for the Phillies in 2019.) Abreu, Machado and Trout should get there if they stay healthy. Rizzo could be a borderline case but drove in 70 as recently as two seasons ago.

Stolen Bases

Among active players, Elvis Andrus leads the way with 347 career steals. He’s on a minor league deal with the D-Backs, though, so Starling Marte (338) is tops among players currently on a 40-man roster. Altuve and Turner are next in line and could each get to 300 this season. Altuve should do so with relative ease, even if he doesn’t run nearly as often as he did early in his career. Turner has an uphill battle. While he has twice topped 40 steals in a season, he hasn’t gotten past 32 in any of the last three years. To his credit, he went 30-30 last year, so there’s no questioning his efficiency.

Wins Above Replacement, bWAR

WAR doesn’t lend itself to milestone tracking with the same ease as the simpler counting stats. A player’s WAR total can go backwards, for one, and there’s no specific in-game moment when they’ll pass a certain threshold. Even if it’s not the easiest statistic to follow in real time, it’s one that teams and many Hall of Fame voters take into account, so it’s worth highlighting a few players.

The aforementioned hamate injury kept Trout to a modest 3-win season a year ago. B-Ref credited him with over six wins in 2022. Replicating that production would make him the only active player to surpass the 90-WAR threshold for his career, a mark topped by only 30 position players in league history. Trout currently sits 33rd on that list. He should pass Chipper Jones and George Brett this year, with an outside chance of tracking down Wade Boggs, Jimmie Foxx and Al Kaline.

With another star-level season, Betts will surpass the 70-WAR threshold. Coincidentally, 70 position players in league history have gotten to that level. Of those players who are eligible for Hall of Fame consideration, only eight (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Rafael Palmeiro, Bobby Grich and Carlos Beltrán) aren’t enshrined in Cooperstown. There’s already no real doubt that Betts is en route to the Hall of Fame, but crossing the 70-WAR mark will further entrench him among the elite players in MLB history.

Notable players approaching 60 WAR: Freeman (55.7), Machado (54.9), Arenado (54.4)

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