Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

By and | at

MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at this winter’s free agent class. With all the hitters now covered, we turn our attention to the pitching. This offseason’s starting pitching class features a handful of the game’s highest-upside arms at the top and a seemingly endless supply of back-of-the-rotation innings-eaters beyond them.

Opt-Out Aces

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. His fastball regularly pushes triple-digits, and he backs it up with a power slider that averaged an absurd 92.6 MPH this past season. No pitcher comes close to matching deGrom’s ability to miss bats, and the two-time Cy Young winner has never posted a single-season ERA higher than 3.53. This year’s 3.08 ERA through 64 1/3 frames is actually the second-highest mark of his career, but that’s largely attributable to some late-season homer troubles that aren’t likely to alarm teams. He fanned 42.7% of opposing hitters against just a 3.3% walk percentage.

While there’s no question about deGrom’s performance, he’ll hit the market with some concerns about his durability. He missed over a full calendar year between July 2021 and this past August due to various arm issues. After battling elbow discomfort late last season, he lost the first half of the 2022 campaign to a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade). deGrom returned brandishing the same otherworldly raw stuff and finished the season healthy, but between the truncated 2020 schedule and the various ailments the past two years, he’s made just 38 combined starts since the start of 2020.

Between the injury history and deGrom’s age — he turns 35 next June — it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to top three years on the open market. There’s no question he’ll find one of the loftiest average annual salaries ever, and he’ll have a strong case to top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV for the all-time record. deGrom is a lock to opt out of the $32.5MM remaining on his deal with the Mets before receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer.

Rodon had a breakout 2021 season with the White Sox, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while striking out 34.6% of opponents. He missed a few weeks late that summer with shoulder soreness, though, and his velocity was down a few ticks when he made his return. It earned him an All-Star nod and a fifth-place Cy Young finish, but there seemed enough trepidation about the health of his shoulder he didn’t find a long-term deal to his liking.

The southpaw bet on himself, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out after the first season. His season in San Francisco was arguably even better than his final year on the South Side of Chicago. Rodon avoided the injured list (aside from a season-ending stint related to a pre-planned innings limit) and made a career-high 31 starts. Through 178 innings, he posted a 2.88 ERA while punching out more than a third of opponents. His fastball velocity held steady in the 95-96 MPH range, and he got swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings for a second straight season.

This time around, Rodon should find the megadeal that eluded him last winter. He’s certain to decline the final $22.5MM on his deal with San Francisco and set out in search of a five-plus year pact that tops the deals awarded to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray a year ago. Rodon will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Verlander missed almost two full seasons from 2020-21 working back from Tommy John surgery. The Astros kept close tabs on his rehab and were sufficiently bullish on his outlook to guarantee him $25MM to return for this season. That deal also contained a $25MM player option conditional on reaching 130 innings, but there’s no chance Verlander exercises that. The Astros’ bet on Verlander paid off better than even the club could’ve reasonably expected, as he’s likely headed to a third Cy Young after pitching to a 1.75 ERA over 175 frames.

While his strikeout rate was down a few points relative to his pre-surgery form, Verlander still fanned a strong 27.8% of opponents against a tiny 4.4% walk rate. His fastball velocity was back in the 95 MPH range. He missed a few weeks late in the year with a calf issue but returned to help the Astros to an American League pennant.

It was a remarkable age-39 campaign, and Verlander joins deGrom in hitting the market with a reasonable shot at topping Scherzer’s all-time AAV. He rejected a qualifying offer last offseason and won’t be eligible for another this winter. Verlander is five years older than deGrom and three years older than Scherzer was last winter, making his free agency even more unprecedented than Scherzer’s. Will there be a three-year deal that takes the future Hall of Famer through age-42 and pushes his overall guarantee north of $100MM?

His Own Bucket

The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but Kershaw still provides ace-caliber production on a rate basis. Signed to a $17MM guarantee to return to Los Angeles last offseason, he responded with a 2.28 ERA through 126 1/3 frames. Kershaw punched out 27.8% of opponents and continued to demonstrate elite command while walking fewer than 5% of batters faced. Even with a fastball that averages just north of 90 MPH, he has no difficulty missing bats in bunches.

Injuries have been problematic for Kershaw in recent years. He ended 2021 on the IL with a forearm issue, and he dealt with back and hip problems this year. He’s not going to make 30+ starts annually at this stage of his career, but few pitchers are as strong a bet for 20 excellent outings. The three-time Cy Young winner has indicated he’s likely to continue pitching in 2023. The Dodgers can technically make him a qualifying offer but appear unlikely to do so as they give him time to weigh his options; they’ll assuredly look to bring him back in free agency.

NPB Star

Senga is an international free agent and will be a Wild Card entrant into this offseason’s class. He’s never played in the majors but has indicated his desire to make the jump from Japan’s NPB to the big leagues. An 11-year member of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, Senga has a career 2.59 ERA in Japan’s top level. He posted a sterling 1.94 mark through 144 innings this year, striking out an impressive 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. Teams’ evaluations of Senga figure to vary depending on their scouts’ determination of his arsenal and command projection, but a club that thinks he’s capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB rotation could have him as the fourth or fifth-best starter on the market.

Mid-Rotation Veterans

Bassitt has been a durable, above-average starter for four straight seasons. He’s posted an ERA of 3.81 or lower every year since 2019, relying on a deep repertoire and plus control. Bassitt handles hitters from both sides of the plate, generally avoiding hard contact and pounding the strike zone. He’s consistently posted low averages on balls in play and hasn’t allowed opponents to reach base at better than a .303 clip in any of the last four years.

His 93-94 MPH fastball is solid, but Bassitt has never gotten huge swing-and-miss or chase rates. He’s not overpowering, but he’s demonstrated a consistent knack for keeping batters off balance and limiting damage. He’s earned playoff starts in both Oakland and Queens in recent years and fits well in the middle of a contending club’s rotation. Headed into his age-34 campaign, Bassitt may be limited to three-year offers, but he should find a strong annual salary over that shorter term. He’s a virtual lock to receive and decline a QO.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal with the Red Sox. He rebounded from a tough 2019 campaign to post a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past three seasons. That includes a 3.87 mark this past season, one in which he logged 109 1/3 innings. Eovaldi has never posted the elite strikeout numbers one might expect for a pitcher whose fastball typically lives in the mid-upper 90s, but he does punch batters out at a slightly above-average clip. He also has elite control and has walked fewer than 5% of opponents in each of the last three seasons. He’s a bit home run prone at times but his strong strikeout and walk profile props up solid mid-rotation production overall.

While Eovaldi has averaged north of 97 MPH on his heater for much of his career, his fastball took a slight step back to 95.7 MPH this year. Paired with his age, that’s at least a bit of a warning sign, but he still throws sufficiently hard and had a solid 2022 season when healthy. Eovaldi did battle a pair of injuries, landing on the IL twice due to inflammation in his back and throwing shoulder. The Red Sox can and seem likely to issue him a qualifying offer.

Third Tier Mid-Rotation Types

Anderson worked as an innings-eater with the Pirates and Mariners last year. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers over the offseason, he continued to soak up innings while pitching to a career-low 2.57 ERA. Anderson’s 19.5% strikeout rate is fairly modest and right in line with those of previous seasons, but he’s an excellent strike-thrower who excels at getting hitters to chase pitches outside the zone. He doesn’t throw all that hard and he’s soon to be 33 years old, although he consistently thrives at avoiding hard contact. He’s a borderline QO candidate and could land a three-year deal this winter.

Clevinger was a high-end starter during his best days with the Indians, posting an ERA between 2.71 and 3.11 each season from 2017-19. Dealt from Cleveland to San Diego midway through the 2020 campaign, the right-hander required Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) that cost him all of 2021. He made it back to the mound this year but didn’t look much like his former self, posting a 4.33 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate that’s nearly ten points lower than his 2017-19 mark. Clevinger was also hit hard in his two postseason outings, making it an inopportune time to hit the market. On the plus side, he still averages north of 93 MPH on his fastball and has strong control. A team that thinks he can bounce back to more closely approximate his pre-surgery form could offer multiple years.

Heaney has long tantalized teams with quality strikeout and walk numbers, but homer troubles have led to some inconsistent ERA’s over the years. That wasn’t the case in 2022, as Heaney turned in a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 frames on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. He flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 35.5% of opponents on a massive 16.8% swinging strike rate. It wasn’t quite a breakout season, as the southpaw lost a few months to repeated shoulder issues. When healthy, however, he showed top-flight bat-missing ability that should land him a solid multi-year pact this offseason. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Generally a solid mid-rotation starter in Oakland, Manaea went to San Diego during Spring Training as part of the A’s teardown. His first (and likely only) campaign as a Padre didn’t go as planned. The southpaw started the season fine but was knocked around in the second half en route to a career-worst 4.96 ERA in 158 innings. Manaea still had decent strikeout and walk numbers and an above-average 12% swinging strike rate, giving some hope for a bounceback. He’s consistently given up his fair share of hard contact, but that wasn’t so much an issue in Oakland’s spacious home ballpark. There’ll be multi-year deals out there based on his general decent track record and strikeouts, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he may prefer a one-year pact to rebuild value after a tough final few months.

A former top prospect, Perez has gotten plenty of opportunities from teams searching for the breakout season. The Rangers, his original organization, brought him back last winter and were rewarded with the awaited career year. He made 32 starts and narrowly fell shy of 200 innings while posting a stellar 2.89 ERA. The southpaw’s 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike percentage were still each below-average, but he showed strong control and induced grounders on over half the batted balls against him. Perez has played his way into a multi-year deal, and the Rangers could tag him with a qualifying offer. Both sides have expressed interest in hammering out an extension that keeps him in Arlington.

One of the game’s most durable and consistent starters during his peak with the White Sox and Cubs, Quintana’s production slipped in 2019 and his shortened 2020 season was mostly wiped out after a hand injury that required stitches prevented him from throwing. A 2021 rebound effort with the Halos didn’t pan out, but Quintana bounced back to his vintage form in 2022. Tossing a combined 165 2/3 innings between the Pirates and Cardinals, he logged a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. It’s enough to put Quintana back in the mix for a two-year deal as a solid mid-rotation option.

Smyly missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to an oblique strain and averaged fewer than five innings per start when healthy enough to pitch. His results were solid, however, with a 3.47 ERA, a 20.4% strikeout rate and a terrific 5.8% walk rate. Smyly was a buzz name coming off a 37.8% strikeout rate through 26 1/3 innings with the Giants during the shortened 2020 season, but he’s notched a 4.02 ERA in 233 innings since that time. That said, Smyly’s swinging-strike rate (12.4%) and chase rate (36.4%) in 2022 suggest there could be more punchouts in the tank.

A valuable swingman for years with the Dodgers, Stripling had a tough season-plus in Toronto following a 2020 trade. Forced into the rotation on a full-time basis in 2022 when Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, Stripling was a godsend. The right-hander finished out the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 frames, with 24 of his 32 appearances coming as a starter. Stripling has a below-average strikeout rate but showed elite command in 2022. He probably won’t replicate a 3.7% walk rate, but his career 5.7% mark shows that his plus command is real. He has a strong case for a full-time rotation job somewhere in free agency.

A borderline ace during his top seasons in Queens, Syndergaard rode an upper-90s heater and a power slider to a 3.31 ERA in 716 career innings through the end of the 2019 campaign. In Spring Training 2020, he was diagnosed with an elbow strain that required Tommy John surgery. He missed almost all of the next two years, returning for a cameo late in 2021. The Angels signed him to a $21MM deal last offseason in hopes he’d recapture his prior form, but Syndergaard served more as a solid mid-rotation control artist than a bat-missing ace. Between Anaheim and Philadelphia, he put up a 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 frames. He only punched out 16.8% of opponents, but his 5.5% walk percentage was excellent. Syndergaard’s fastball was down to the 94-95 MPH range and his slider came in just under 85 MPH. He wasn’t his peak self, but he was still an effective starter. At age 30, there’s still a chance he regains some of his pre-surgery form as he pulls further away from the procedure, but it wasn’t the dominant 2022 showing Syndergaard or the Angels were hoping to see 12 months ago.

The No. 2 overall pick in 2010 and long one of MLB’s premier pitching prospects, Taillon has put his 2019 Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) in the rearview mirror. Teams will have concerns surrounding any two-time Tommy John patient, but Taillon has pitched 321 2/3 innings over 61 starts since being traded to the Yankees two offseasons ago. In that time, he’s logged a 4.08 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout numbers and strong walk rates. Taillon has never put together an elite season as many hoped during his prospect days, but he’s also never had a truly bad season when healthy. He’s settled in as a solid third or fourth starter and should be popular among teams seeking rotation help but unwilling to spend at the top of the market.

A former first-round pick and top prospect, Wacha battled injuries through his arbitration years in St. Louis. He’s signed a trio of one-year, Major League deals in free agency despite pitching near replacement level from 2019-21. He rewarded the Red Sox’ faith, however, by tossing 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Like many in this tier, Wacha has a below-average strikeout rate (20.2%) but strong command (6% walk rate). He missed more than a month this summer with shoulder troubles — not a new issue for him — but was sharp when on the mound. Several Boston beat writers have pegged Wacha as a qualifying offer candidate, and if the Sox make that $19.65MM offer he should take it. If not, he could find a multi-year deal.

Reliever/Starter Hybrids

A longtime starter with the Tigers, Boyd underwent flexor surgery late in the 2021 season. Detroit non-tendered him as a result, and he worked in relief for the final month this year with the Mariners upon returning to health. The southpaw had wobbly control but missed bats at a slightly above-average rate, as he has throughout his career. With a healthy offseason upcoming, he can could get new rotation opportunities this winter.

Eflin has been a stable back-of-the-rotation starter for the Phillies for the past five years. He’s a quality strike-thrower who generates a decent number of grounders with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. As one of the younger arms on the market, he looked on his way to a strong free agent deal. Unfortunately, he missed a good chunk of this past season with a right knee injury. That’s a continuation of career-long knee issues, as Eflin has undergone surgery on both knees and been open about his longstanding battle with pain in the joints. Upon returning late in the season, Eflin has worked out of the bullpen as a reflection of the shorter rehab time. He’s been a trusted high-leverage reliever for the Phils during their postseason run. He’ll likely look to get another rotation job heading into next year, but the bullpen could be a solid fallback if he again is faced with injury setbacks.

A longtime reliever, Lorenzen set his sights on a rotation spot in free agency last winter. He got that shot with the Angels, with whom he wound up making 18 starts. The right-hander posted a 4.24 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers, although he held his mid-90s velocity in longer stints and did a decent job turning lineups over multiple times in a game. He’ll probably find some teams interested in moving him back to the bullpen, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets another rotation opportunity.

Strahm came out of the bullpen 50 times for the Red Sox this year, posting a 3.83 ERA across 44 2/3 innings. He punched out almost 27% of opponents, while showing solid control and a deeper repertoire than that possessed by most relievers. That’s relevant since Strahm has spoken about a willingness to consider rotation opportunities if those are presented. He’ll certainly draw interest as a left-handed bullpen option, but there may be enough interest to get him his first extended look as a starter since 2019, as there was with Lorenzen last winter.

Short-Term Former Stars

Cueto signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last offseason after a six-year run with the Giants. The veteran made it to the majors in mid-May and surprisingly served as one of Chicago’s more consistently effective starters. He posted a 3.35 ERA through 158 1/3 innings, averaging more than six innings per outing over his 25 appearances. Cueto only struck out 15.7% of batters faced, but he demonstrated elite control and kept the White Sox in the game more often than not. Between his age, lack of missed bats and a fastball that averaged just over 91 MPH, he won’t land a huge deal, but he’s certainly pitched himself into a guaranteed rotation spot on a higher base salary than the prorated $4MM he made in Chicago this past season.

A likely future Hall of Famer, Greinke is now a reliable back-of-the-rotation option. His fastball is below 90 MPH and he struck out a career-worst 12.5% of opposing hitters during his return to the Royals this year. It certainly wasn’t a vintage Greinke performance, but he walked fewer than 5% of opponents and posted a strong 3.68 ERA. Even at 39 years old, the six-time All-Star will receive major league offers and a rotation spot next year.

Kluber missed a good chunk of the 2021 season with the Yankees, leading to an $8MM guarantee with $5MM available in incentives on last winter’s deal with the Rays. The two-time Cy Young winner stayed healthy all year and made 31 starts, triggering all his incentives by soaking up 164 innings. He posted a 4.34 ERA but walked a minuscule 3% of batters faced. Kluber’s fastball is down to around 89 MPH, but he still generated swinging strikes on more than 11% of his offerings and was adept at getting opponents to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. He has a good chance at beating last offseason’s $8MM guarantee as a result.

Depth Types

  • Chris Archer (34): After a few seasons affected by injury, Archer managed 25 starts this year with the Twins. He worked to a 4.56 ERA through 102 2/3 innings with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. His days as an upper mid-rotation arm are behind him, but he could find another big league contract as a back-of-the-rotation type.
  • Zach Davies (30): Davies started 27 games for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.09 ERA. He doesn’t miss many bats but he’s typically been a durable source of back-of-the-rotation innings.
  • Kyle Gibson (35): A 2021 trade deadline pickup after a strong start with the Rangers, Gibson has underperformed in Philadelphia. He has a 5.06 ERA in 43 starts as a Phillie. His peripherals are more solid: a quality ground-ball rate and solid strike-throwing paired with slightly below-average swing-and-miss numbers. Gibson’s a capable fourth/fifth starter.
  • Rich Hill (43): Even headed into his age-43 season, Hill plans to continue pitching. He signed with his hometown Red Sox last winter and provided a 4.27 ERA across 124 1/3 innings. His swing-and-miss rate and velocity are below-average, but he’s a respected veteran who throws strikes and has generally kept runs off the board since his late-career renaissance.
  • Wade Miley (36): Miley was one of the more effective starters in the National League a season ago, pitching to a 3.37 ERA over 163 innings in 2021. Claimed off waivers by the Cubs last winter, he battled injuries throughout the season and was limited to 37 innings.
  • Trevor Williams (31): Williams pitched in a swing role with the Mets, starting nine of 30 outings. The veteran right-hander had a 4.19 ERA as a starter but posted a much more impressive 2.51 mark in 51 innings of relief.

Minor League Deal Candidates

  • Chase Anderson (35): Anderson spent the bulk of the season working in Triple-A, but he picked up nine late-season appearances with the Reds. He posted a 6.38 ERA through 24 innings.
  • Kohei Arihara (30): A mid-rotation starter in Japan, Arihara signed a two-year deal with the Rangers over the 2020-21 offseason. He managed only a 7.57 ERA in 15 appearances over two years in Arlington. Arihara will be looking at minor league offers from affiliated teams, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he explores NPB opportunities.
  • Tyler Beede (30): A former first-rounder and well-regarded pitching prospect, Beede mostly worked out of the bullpen with the Giants and Pirates this year. He did pick up five starts in 31 outings and posted an overall 5.14 ERA before clearing waivers late in the season.
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez (31): Gonzalez suited up with three different teams in 2022, bouncing around on waivers and via minor league deals. He made five starts in seven appearances and posted a 5.87 ERA across 23 frames.
  • Drew Hutchison (32): The Tigers turned to Hutchison for his greatest workload since 2015. He soaked up 105 1/3 innings in a swing role, managing a 4.53 ERA.
  • Dallas Keuchel (35): The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has fallen on hard times in recent years. He bounced between three clubs this past season but was tagged for a 9.20 ERA through 60 2/3 frames.
  • Chad Kuhl (30): Signed to a $3MM guarantee by the Rockies last winter, Kuhl got off to a strong start in Colorado. He was hit hard in the second half and finished the year with a career-worst 5.72 ERA across 137 innings.
  • Mike Mayers (31): A productive reliever for the Angels from 2020-21, Mayers had a rough season. He posted a 5.68 ERA over 50 2/3 innings and was waived twice during the year. He did make a trio of big league starts, topping out at 5 1/3 innings in an outing, but he figures to draw more bullpen interest as a minor league free agent.
  • Michael Pineda (34): Typically a solid back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Pineda had an injury-plagued 2022 season with the Tigers. He was limited to 11 starts by a hand fracture and some triceps soreness. The non-competitive Detroit club released him before the end of the season to get a longer look at some of their controllable arms.
  • Josh Rogers (28): Rogers had an impressive five-start run late in 2021 to earn a season-opening roster spot in Washington. He couldn’t carry it over in 2022, posting a 5.13 ERA through 26 1/3 frames as a swingman before being cut loose. He spent the rest of the year in Triple-A with the Marlins.
  • Joe Ross (30): Ross has flashed mid-rotation potential at times in his career, but he hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2016. He underwent Tommy John surgery this summer and might be looking at minor league offers while he rehabs. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, but a late-season return in 2023 doesn’t seem out of the question.
  • Aaron Sanchez (30): The former AL ERA champ has settled into journeyman territory at this stage of his career. He started 10 of 15 games for the Nationals and Twins this year, putting up a 6.60 ERA across 60 innings of work.
  • Anibal Sanchez (39): Sanchez returned after a year away to start 14 games for the Nationals. The veteran righty posted a respectable 4.28 ERA but struggled with walks and home runs.
  • Devin Smeltzer (27): Smeltzer picked up 12 starts in 15 appearances for the Twins in a depth capacity. He worked to a 3.71 ERA but only struck out 13.2% of opponents while working with a fastball that averaged just north of 89 MPH. He went unclaimed on waivers at the end of the season.
  • Jose Urena (31): Urena latched on with the Rockies midseason and made 17 starts. The former Marlin right-hander posted a 5.14 ERA across 89 1/3 innings, although he did show his typically strong velocity and ground-ball proclivities.
  • Vince Velasquez (31): Velasquez has continued to get opportunities based on his mid-90s velocity and decent ability to miss bats. Home runs have been a constant issue, however, and he’s battled plenty of command inconsistency. He worked in a swing role with the White Sox this year and put up a 4.78 ERA across 75 1/3 innings.
  • T.J. Zeuch (27): A former first-round pick of the Blue Jays, Zeuch has seen brief MLB action in four seasons. He was hit hard in three starts with the Reds in 2022.

Players With Opt-Outs/Player Options

  • Nick Martinez (32), can opt of final three years and $19.5MM on contract with Padres, $1.5MM buyout

Martinez has worked in a swing role during his first season with the Padres. After starting 10 of his first 12 outings, he moved full-time to the bullpen in June. He didn’t miss many bats in either role but he showed much stronger control as a reliever and posted a 2.67 ERA over 54 innings out of the bullpen. He’d reportedly prefer another chance as a starter, which could lean him towards triggering his opt-out. Martinez has yet to establish himself in an MLB rotation, but he was excellent over three years in the rotation in NPB and showed the ability to handle MLB bats in relief this year.

The hefty buyout figure on Odorizzi’s option means he’d only need to top $6.25MM in free agency to make testing the market a reasonable decision. Even still, he may elect to stick with the Braves after a rough second half. Acquired at the trade deadline, the veteran right-hander posted a 5.24 ERA over 10 starts in Atlanta. He was more effective in Houston but no longer misses bats as he did a few seasons ago.

  • James Paxton (34), will hold $4MM player option once Red Sox decline two-year, $26MM club option

Paxton signed a complex deal with Boston to finish off his rehab after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He didn’t wind up pitching in 2022, as he suffered a lat tear while rehabbing. There’s no way the Red Sox guarantee him $26MM, so Paxton will be left to decide whether to return to Boston on a $4MM salary or set out to free agency in search of an incentive-laden deal with a bit more earning power.

The durability issues that plagued Walker in his mid-20s have largely been put in the past. He’s made 69 starts and pitched 369 2/3 frames over the past three seasons, recording a 3.80 ERA along the way. This year’s 20.3% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 6.9% walk rate is Walker’s best since 2016. The right-hander doesn’t do any one thing especially well but also doesn’t have a glaring weakness. Walker is a slam-dunk to turn down this modestly priced option and find a multi-year deal in free agency, assuming the Mets don’t make him a qualifying offer.

Players With Club Options

  • Dylan Bundy (30), Twins hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

Bundy signed a one-year guarantee with Minnesota last offseason. The Twins’ hopes at a bounceback season didn’t pan out, as he averaged under 90 MPH on his fastball for the first time in his career and put up a 4.89 ERA over 140 innings. He’ll be bought out.

Carrasco went from the Indians to the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster over the 2020-21 offseason. His first year in Queens was tarnished by injury, but he returned to make 29 starts this past season. Over 152 innings, Carrasco posted a 3.97 ERA with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It looks like he’s done enough to earn the Mets picking up his option, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Carrasco’s injury history could give the team pause.

Duffy signed with the Dodgers last offseason while rehabbing from a flexor strain that required surgery. He had a setback this summer and didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2022. He’ll be bought out and might be limited to minor league offers this time around.

Gray’s option is a no-brainer for the Twins. He battled some injuries during his first season in Minnesota but put up a 3.08 ERA in 119 2/3 innings when healthy. He’ll be back in the middle of the Twins starting staff next year.

  • Jordan Lyles (32), Orioles hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

The O’s are faced with a tough decision on Lyles, whom they signed to a one-year guarantee last winter. The veteran righty ate innings as the club had hoped and put up a 4.42 ERA that was his lowest mark in three seasons. Even that was still a fair bit worse than average, however, as were his strikeout and ground-ball numbers. He’s a stable back-end starter who reportedly served as a strong veteran leader in the O’s clubhouse.

  • Aaron Nola (30), Phillies hold $16MM option with $4.25MM buyout

There’s no chance Nola hits free agency. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and the Phillies won’t have any easier decisions this offseason than to exercise his option.

  • Luis Severino (29), Yankees hold $15MM club option with $2.75MM buyout

The Yankees are sure to retain Severino, who came back from a trio of injury-diminished seasons to post a 3.18 ERA over 102 innings. He again missed a couple months with a lat strain, but the right-hander showed his old velocity and upper mid-rotation form when healthy.

Previous installments:Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter

Big Hype Prospects: Merrill, Marte, Davis, Yorke, Winn

By | at

Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. A general note before we dive in – I’m relaxing the definition of “big” so we can continue to cover different active players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Merrill, 19, SS, SDP (A)
AFL: 73 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .308/.356/.431

Merrill was the 27th overall selection in the 2021 draft. One of the youngest players in the AFL, he’s held his own in Arizona after a promising regular season split between the complex and Low-A. He’s now arguably the top prospect in a Padres system that traded the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and James Wood.

Merrill has the look of a throwback shortstop. He’s smaller than many of the current crop of shortstops and has a swing geared more for all-field contact than generating power. He appears to be a high-probability future big leaguer. It’s possible he’ll top out as a utility guy if certain aspects of his game – such as first-step quickness in the field – don’t age well. His defensive aplomb will go a long way toward determining his future role.

Noelvi Marte, 21, SS, CIN (A+)
AFL: 58 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .208/.345/.333

Marte hasn’t been particularly effective this fall – possibly a sign that he’s out of gas after a 520 plate appearance regular season split between Seattle and Cincinnati’s High-A affiliates. Marte has also been prone to streaks this year so he still has plenty of time to turn things around with a couple big games. Encouragingly, he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts. He recently hit a titanic 461-foot home run, showcasing his premium power upside.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
AFL: 53 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .256/.415/.462

One of two exciting, near-Majors catching prospects in the Pirates system, Davis managed just 236 plate appearances during the regular season due to injuries. He’s mostly in Arizona to work on his defense. If he doesn’t improve in all defensive facets, he could eventually move to first base where his bat should still play – just a lot less excitingly. He’s shown more than his characteristic plate discipline this fall. While one home run seems disappointing for a player with premium raw power, he’s also hit five doubles.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, BOS (A+)
AFL: 76 PA, 1 HR, .328/.434/.492

Yorke was one of a few players with more to prove than most in the AFL. He’s mostly succeeded. Yorke currently leads the league in plate appearances and doubles (7). He also has 15.8 percent strikeout and walk rates. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope Yorke can fit in as a future leadoff hitter, and he’s filled that role ably this fall. Lately, it’s been shared that Yorke played through nagging injuries which might have led to his poor performance at High-A. Occasionally, the “nagging injury” card is played to distract from the real reasons for a lousy season. A healthy 2023 campaign could do much to restore confidence in Yorke’s future role in Boston.

Masyn Winn, 20, SS, STL (AA)
AFL: 52 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, .300/.462/.375

Winn is an up-and-coming prospect. At present, the tools are more obvious than the actual statistical outcome. He’s a plus runner who has the capacity to hit for power. Scouts have noted that his game approach doesn’t always tap into those tools – as if he’s selling out for contact at the expense of power. Given that he’s a Cardinals prospect – a system that has long valued discipline and contact – this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Should Winn access more in-game power next season, he could climb onto Top 10 prospect lists. In the AFL, he has just one extra-base hit, though he’s otherwise performed well including 12 walks to just eight strikeouts.

Five More

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Simon currently leads the AFL with 18 RBI. He’s the sort of player the Rays system tends to produce in bulk. He can play second or third base. During the regular season, he hit 22 home runs with 34 steals over 473 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of the season at High-A. Rule 5 eligible, Simon might not be doing enough to claim a 40-man spot with the roster-crunched Rays. If so, we could see him in the Majors next April as a Rule 5 draftee.

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The Cardinals will have a difficult choice with Thomas. He is also Rule 5 eligible. A ground ball machine who worked to a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings this season, Thomas should find himself on a 40-man roster before long. While he didn’t succeed at preventing runs during the regular season, the 5’ 11’’ southpaw features plus command of a four-pitch repertoire. He’s arguably the top-performing pitcher in Arizona, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 17.2 innings. His slider in particular looks like it could play up in a relief role.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert is the AFL’s top-performing reliever. He has 15 strikeouts with just one walk and no hits allowed in 7.2 innings. Acquired in the Mike Brosseau trade with the Brewers, Reifert has an upper-90s fastball and a two-plane, borderline elite slider. The right-hander has historically struggled with command, though he’s mostly avoided walks this year. He’s on pace to debut next season.

Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

Zach Britton, TOR (23): Yet another catching prospect in the catcher-rich Blue Jays system, Britton is a highly disciplined left-handed hitter roughly in the mold of Cavan Biggio. Britton isn’t nearly as maxed out on fly ball contact which should help him to hit more consistently than Biggio. Britton should receive more attention from prospect outlets next season as he approaches a Major League debut. He’s currently second in the AFL in OPS with a .457/.524/.686 (1.210 OPS) triple-slash in 40 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By | at

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine have been in place for six years now. The team has a winning record under their leadership, but the last two seasons have ended in disappointment, with the Twins missing the postseason by a wide margin despite heading into the year as projected contenders. They’ll enter the offseason with a large amount of payroll space, though that’s due partly to last winter’s marquee signing opting out of his contract.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Byron Buxton, OF: $90MM through 2028 ($15MM base salary can increase to $23MM annually based on MVP voting)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $9.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2024)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B: $8.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2024; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2025)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $7.75MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026; contract also contains $7MM club option for 2026, $8.5MM club option for 2027)*
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $3.125MM through 2023 (can earn up to $10MM of incentives based on games started, innings pitched)

*=Dobnak is in the organization but no longer on the 40-man roster

Total 2023 commitment: $35.625MM
Total long-term outlay: $118.875MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Twins’ first order of business will be determining whether they have a legitimate chance to retain Carlos Correa, who’s already said he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract. The only long-term commitment of note on the books is Byron Buxton’s $15MM annual salary through the 2028 season, leaving plenty of room for the Twins to put forth a market-value offer with what would be the first $30MM+ annual salary in club history.

The question, of course, is whether the front office feels it’s wise to do so and whether owner Jim Pohlad will green-light that franchise-record expenditure. For his part, Correa has effused praise for the Twins since day one. He’s since said on record multiple times that his family enjoys living there and that he personally “loves” manager Rocco Baldelli and the clubhouse environment.

Pleasantries are all well and good this time of year, but Correa has also made clear that he’s seeking a long-term deal and will again become a free agent if the two parties cannot agree to an extension. Falvey has said on record that the Twins have talked contract with agent Scott Boras since the season ended, also expressing a willingness to “get creative” on a deal. Cynics would suggest that’s corporate-speak implying the Twins aren’t prepared to offer a straightforward long-term pact, but it was a somewhat “creative” offer that brought Correa to Minneapolis in the first place. He still seems likely to test the market, but the Twins have another couple weeks to convince him to stay.

If Correa indeed opts out and signs elsewhere, the Twins will be left with a hole at shortstop but also a heaping amount of payroll space. All four of their club option decisions are easy to decipher. Miguel Sano, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer will be bought out, and all are likely to sign elsewhere. Sonny Gray’s $12.5MM club option is a no-brainer to exercise. In a scenario where Correa departs and Gray is picked up, the Twins will have around $50MM committed to next year’s books.

There are arbitration-eligible players to consider, but that’ll only add another $30MM or so to the ledger. The Twins opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the neighborhood of $142MM, but even with Gray returning and only a handful of non-tenders, they’ll clock in around $80-82MM in commitments. Even if 2022’s Opening Day mark is set as a firm ceiling — which it likely is not — the front office has a lot of financial freedom this winter.

Where can the Twins reallocate those resources? Frankly, just about anywhere. The lineup has few guarantees, though that’s generally due to flexibility afforded by key young players.

Luis Arraez spent a large chunk of time at first base this season and won a batting title in the process, but he can play second base, third base and even some left field if needed. Rookie Jose Miranda also spent time at first base, but he rose through the system as a third baseman and could man the hot corner if the Twins prefer to trade Gio Urshela and go with Miranda/Arraez at the corners. Doing so could bring back some bullpen help or a decent minor league asset and free up another $9MM or so.

If Correa doesn’t return, the Twins can turn shortstop over to former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, though he’s rehabbing a second tear of his right ACL and thus shouldn’t be considered a lock to handle shortstop from the jump (if at all). Lewis is another candidate to play multiple positions at some point and could do so as soon as next year, depending on which course the Twins chart.

If Minnesota isn’t willing to pay top-of-the-market money for the marquee shortstop they already know and love, Correa, it stands to reason that fellow free agent Trea Turner will be out of their comfort zone. But both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will be free agents this winter, and while both figure to command nine-figure contracts, they’ll likely be less expensive than Turner and Correa. Barring another splash in the deep end of the free-agent pool, the Twins could look to a shorter-term veteran like Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias to help ease Lewis into a larger role.

There’s similar flexibility and uncertainty in the outfield. Byron Buxton remains one of the most talented players in MLB on a per-game basis but also one of the most oft-injured. He hit 28 homers in just 92 games but missed time with a hip strain before undergoing season-ending knee surgery in September. Max Kepler has been a stalwart in right field, and his pull-happy approach could make him a beneficiary of the forthcoming limitations on infield shifts. However, Kepler has never replicated the fly-ball rates (and subsequent power output) he showed in the juiced-ball 2019 season that saw him club 36 home runs. With just one guaranteed year to go on his contract (plus an option), he could be a trade candidate as the Twins look to open space for younger players.

Among those younger options are snakebitten corner outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Both are former first-rounders and consensus top-50 prospects in the league, but both have seen their early careers waylaid by injury. Kirilloff, who’s twice undergone wrist surgery, was particularly touted. That duo can play the corners, and Kirilloff has plenty of experience at first base as well, further adding to the aforementioned infield flexibility. Twin Cities native and former No. 39 overall draft pick Matt Wallner is another right field option who made his big league debut in 2022 and could factor into next year’s group.

If the Twins do trade Kepler, there’s an argument that they ought to bring in a different veteran to stabilize/complement the in-house group — ideally a right-handed hitter. The most wide-eyed dreamers among Twins fans can point to the payroll space and last March’s stunning Correa deal as justification for an “anything is possible” mentality, but Aaron Judge is scarcely worth a mention here. Still, a short-term veteran could at least be in play as an occasional left fielder and designated hitter, depending on what happens with Kepler.

Behind the plate, the Twins remain high on Ryan Jeffers’ receiving and his power, but Falvey has specifically talked about bringing in another backstop to again utilize a “co-catcher” method that divides playing time more evenly than the traditional starter/backup pairing. As Falvey plainly noted, Jeffers was particularly adept against left-handed pitching.

The Twins haven’t labeled the still-25-year-old Jeffers a pure platoon option, but they’ll want someone who can help out against right-handed pitching. This year’s free-agent class isn’t a great one in that regard, though Omar Narvaez has a nice track record against righties despite a down showing in 2022. Willson Contreras, the market’s top catcher, would bolster the offense against righties and lefties alike, and the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to make them a dark-horse landing spot. The trade market will have options ranging from clear starters (Oakland’s Sean Murphy, Toronto’s Danny Jansen) to out-of-options fliers (the Angels’ Matt Thaiss).

The depth on the pitching staff is more suspect. Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. Some of that was by design, at least early on. For instance, Minnesota inked Chris Archer to an incentive-laden deal that allowed him to boost his salary based on games started and outings of three or more innings in length. The plan was to ease him into the year with short outings and build him up, but Archer never built up to the workload the team envisioned. Rotation-mate and fellow offseason signee Dylan Bundy had averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start from 2019-21 and averaged under five innings per start with the Twins in ’22. He likely was never viewed as a potential workhorse.

That approach placed undue stress on a bullpen that, beyond breakout arms Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, had few alternatives for much of the season. The Twins swung what looked like one of the better deals of the deadline, bringing in All-Star reliever Jorge Lopez from the Orioles, but Lopez struggled greatly with his command following the swap and wasn’t able to replicate his Baltimore form.

We don’t need a full breakdown of what went wrong for the Twins’ staff for the purposes of outlining the forthcoming offseason. The end-of-season results — 20th in rotation ERA/27th in innings; 15th in bullpen ERA/third in innings — are telling. For the Twins to remedy things in 2022, they’ll need more innings and more quality from the rotation and/or a deeper and more talented bullpen to help offset the lack of innings from the starting staff.

Returning to the 2022 rotation will be the aforementioned Gray and right-hander Joe Ryan, who dubiously led Twins pitchers with 147 innings. Both were strong mid-rotation arms, though Gray was hampered by hamstring injuries that limited him to 119 2/3 innings. Kenta Maeda will also be healed from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota will hope for better health from deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle, for whom they surrendered three prospects in a deal with the Reds.

Mahle, like Gray, was an above-average starter with the Reds prior to his acquisition and was particularly effective away from the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He hit the injured list with a “minor” shoulder strain in July, returned to make two solid outings prior to the deadline, and landed in Minnesota as a hopeful rotation boost down the stretch. Instead, he twice went back on the injured list with shoulder troubles and made only four total starts as a Twin. Falvey has said since the season ended that Mahle “has been evaluated beyond the traditional MRI” and that the team believes the strain led to some weakness in Mahle’s rotator cuff. The expectation is that he’ll be healthy in 2023.

A healthy quartet of Ryan, Gray, Mahle and Maeda would be a solid start to any staff, and the Twins have some in-house options to join them. Righties Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson have all pitched in the Majors — Ober extensively so, dating back to a quietly solid rookie effort in 2021. Winder missed time in 2022 due to shoulder troubles but was a top-100 prospect prior to this year’s debut and at times looked quite impressive. Woods Richardson had a promising year in the upper minors and made his MLB debut in the season’s final week. Top prospect Jordan Balazovic had a lost season, spending a month on the shelf with a knee strain and struggling for the majority of the Triple-A campaign thereafter.

Twins fans will call for the team to pursue a front-line starter, but the reality is that consecutive poor finishes makes that a far more difficult task. Veterans Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom will likely prioritize signing with more clearly defined contenders. Lefty Carlos Rodon would be a more feasible target if the Twins are willing to dole out their first nine-figure pitching contract in franchise history, but he should clear the Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) contracts — perhaps by a wide margin.

Right-hander Kodai Senga, ace of Nippon Professional Baseball’s SoftBank Hawks, will pursue MLB opportunities this offseason, too, but the competition for him will be fierce. The market does feature a number of solid second-tier options, with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard and Tyler Anderson among them.

In the bullpen, the Twins will hope Duran, Lopez and Jax can pair with lefties Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran to anchor the late innings. Hard-throwing righty Jorge Alcala missed nearly the whole season with an elbow issue but is expected back in ’23. It’s a talented group that looks far better than the unit they had early in 2022, but after generally eschewing veteran additions a year ago (save for a one-year flier on Joe Smith, who was released over the summer), the Twins should place more of an emphasis on adding stability. Minnesota’s lack of depth was exposed in 2022 when Tyler Duffey declined and trade pickup Emilio Pagan regularly proved unreliable, despite persistent opportunities (due largely to said lack of depth). The latter now seems likely to be traded or non-tendered following a disastrous year.

The only multi-year free agent deal the current front office has given to a reliever is Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal, and that was six years ago. In fact, as far as I can tell, that’s the only multi-year deal given to a free-agent reliever by the Twins since the turn of the century (though they’ve extended in-house star closers like Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins).

In other words, don’t expect this team to break the bank for Edwin Diaz. If the Twins want to break that multi-year trend, the top names with a chance at three- and two-year deals include Robert Suarez, Kenley Jansen and (more quietly) Rafael Montero. More realistically, the Twins will bide their time and wait out the market for relievers open to one-year deals. That strategy has backfired recently (Smith, Alex Colome) but paid off at times in the past (Tyler Clippard).

Few teams in baseball have as much money coming off the books as the Twins this winter, and they could further add to that stockpile of resources by trading a veteran they feel they can replace internally (e.g. Kepler, Urshela). That should give the Twins the financial latitude to pursue just about any endeavor they choose, and at least as far as the lineup goes, they’re deep in young options.

This version of the Minnesota front office has typically eschewed long-term commitments in free agency, with Josh Donaldson’s four-year deal marking the only time they’ve signed a free agent for more than three years. Given the clean payroll outlook, a strong free-agent class and mounting pressure to return to contention in the AL Central, it’s arguable that this offseason is the time to deviate from that risk-averse approach.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By | at

The Blue Jays returned to the postseason, yet were eliminated after a devastating collapse in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.  Toronto may now face some tough decisions in how to best take the next step forward as a contender.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Obligations

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

By the numbers, Toronto had one of the league’s best offenses, though the lineup was also prone to lengthy and almost team-wide cold streaks.  While any team would be challenged by an in-form Luis Castillo, the Jays’ offensive inconsistency surfaced in Game 1 when they scattered only seven hits in a 4-0 shutout loss.  In Game 2, an 8-1 lead after five innings seemed safe in the hands of a bullpen that had been pretty solid all season.  However, “pretty solid” wasn’t good enough, as the Mariners roared back from the 8-1 deficit and then a 9-5 deficit to secure the 10-9 victory.

While two playoff games don’t erase the 92 wins of the regular season, the specific nature of the two WCS losses underlined weaknesses that lingered all year.  And, with only a 35-39 mark against teams with a winning record, the Jays had a tendency to come up short against tougher competition during the regular season as well.

Some of those issues were solved when Charlie Montoyo was fired as the team’s manager on July 13, as the Blue Jays played better under interim manager John Schneider (46-28) than under Montoyo (46-42).  This was enough to earn Schneider a three-year contract as the team’s proper manager, and now Schneider, GM Ross Atkins, team president Mark Shapiro, and the rest of the Jays brain trust has to identify and patch up these flaws in the would-be strengths of the lineup and bullpen.

In addition, there’s also the more immediate issue of a short-handed pitching staff.  Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah form a strong 1-2 punch atop the rotation, but then the questions start.  Jose Berrios was very inconsistent in posting a 5.23 ERA (but also a more respectable 4.13 SIERA) over 172 innings, and since the righty is already locked up to a pricey extension signed last winter, the Jays can only hope that Berrios can get on track going forward.  Yusei Kikuchi pitched so poorly that he lost his rotation spot, Mitch White wasn’t much better as Kikuchi’s replacement, and Hyun-Jin Ryu will be a later-season addition, at best, after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June.

There also isn’t any obvious and immediate help on the farm, given such uninspiring depth options as Casey Lawrence, Thomas Hatch, or Bowden Francis.  Former top prospect Nate Pearson had another injury-plagued season and now looks ticketed for a multi-inning relief role rather than starting work.  Current top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann has plenty of promise but only had a handful of Double-A outings, while Yosver Zulueta made it to Triple-A yet is still battling significant control issues.  These promising youngsters may indeed play a role for the 2023 Jays, but not by Opening Day.

With all of this rotation turmoil, Ross Stripling was one of the team’s unsung heroes of 2022.  After Ryu was injured, Stripling moved into the rotation for good, and he finished the season with a 3.01 ERA and an elite 3.7% walk rate over 134 1/3 innings.  This excellent control helped Stripling offset a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate, and Stripling also got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .269 BABIP.

Stripling is now a free agent and will be looking for his first multi-year payday as he enters his age-33 season.  Though he has worked mostly as a swingman throughout his career and his overall results as a starter are somewhat hit-or-miss, Stripling’s success in 2022 and the league-wide need for pitching will earn him a good contract on the open market.

While Stripling’s price tag won’t be excessive, re-signing the right-hander might require the Blue Jays to outbid several other teams, and to make another notable investment in their pitching staff.  It doesn’t help that Ryu ($20MM), Kikuchi ($10MM) and even Berrios ($15MM) are taking up such a sizeable chunk of the payroll, even though the Jays don’t know what they’ll really be getting from any of the trio in 2023.

If not Stripling, at least one more starter will have to be acquired, and perhaps two if the Blue Jays don’t want to risk giving a rotation spot to either of Kikuchi or White on a full-time basis.  The Jays have had some notable successes (e.g. Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Stripling) in acquiring starters during Atkins’ tenure, but with just as many misfires (Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Kikuchi through one year), there is certainly risk involved in targeting another rebound candidate.  But, given the money already committed to the rotation, shopping at the top of the market doesn’t seem likely.

Or, does it?  The Jays have greatly increased their payroll as the team has become more competitive over the last two seasons, with a club record of roughly $171MM committed to the Opening Day roster.  That record is already on its way to being broken in 2023, as projections from Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts set the Jays’ payroll at around $192MM, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of approximately $217MM — within striking distance of the $232MM tax threshold.

That payroll number will likely drop at least a little due to some non-tender decisions.  (Raimel Tapia, for instance, generated only 0.2 fWAR last season, so his $5.2MM projected arbitration salary is steep.)  Since the Blue Jays have never really been close to the tax threshold before, it remains to be seen if ownership considers the CBT as an upper limit on payroll, or if they would be willing to spend beyond the threshold in the right circumstance.

Justin Verlander gave serious consideration to signing with Toronto last winter.  Now that the ace is certain to test free agency again, would the Jays realistically be able to offer the type of deal (maybe a $40MM average annual value) it could take to pry Verlander away from the Astros or other suitors?  If not Verlander, perhaps another top-of-the-rotation arm like Carlos Rodon could be feasible.

Moving away from the pitching side, could the Jays even get involved in the shortstop market?  Given how public defensive metrics painted a grim picture of Bo Bichette’s glovework in 2022, the Blue Jays could shake up their lineup by moving Bichette to second base and signing one of Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, or longtime AL East foe Xander Bogaerts.

Since we don’t know how far ownership is willing to go with payroll, it may be prudent to not count on too many splashy signings.  Also, it is possible the Jays might need some future payroll space earmarked for possible extensions for Manoah, Bichette, and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  If big free-agent moves might not be in the cards, the trade market could be the answer to the Blue Jays’ issues.

The farm system has lost some depth due to past trades, and Toronto will likely be hesitant to further deplete its prospect stock in any meaningful way (i.e., the likes of Tiedemann probably won’t be available).  While Atkins has downplayed the idea of moving a player from the current core, that might be the most realistic way for the Blue Jays to make an impactful addition to the rotation, bullpen, or perhaps at another position in the lineup.

Between Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and star prospect Gabriel Moreno, the Blue Jays have perhaps the most catching depth of any team in baseball.  This trio became even more valuable in 2022, after Kirk reached the All-Star team, Jansen posted an .855 OPS and 15 home runs over 248 plate appearances, and Moreno looked solid in his first 25 games in the big leagues.  Moreno’s potential as a multi-position player could mean that the Jays don’t need to make a decision on their catching corps just yet, but trading a catcher has long seemed like Toronto’s most logical route to landing a big trade target.

Any number of clubs could use reliable catching help, but the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Marlins stand out as teams who both need catching, and who have been frequent trade partners with Toronto in recent years.  It seems less likely that Moreno would be the one dealt, since clubs rarely move prospects of his pedigree.  But, moving Kirk or Jansen could land the Blue Jays a controllable starting pitcher, or an everyday second baseman, or perhaps an outfielder to play center field or one of the corners.

As for the players already in those positions, some plausible trade chips could be placed on the table.  Both Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be free agents after the 2023 season, and the Jays may need to open up a corner outfield spot sooner rather than later for Springer, for both health and defensive reasons.  Springer is probably still the best bet up the middle for 2023, though Whit Merrifield might get some time in center field as part of a super-sub role, or one of Jackie Bradley Jr. or Bradley Zimmer could be brought back as defensive depth.

If the Blue Jays do need to create some room in the budget for other additions, Hernandez’s projected $14.1MM arb salary could increase his chances of being traded.  On the other hand, Hernandez has a lot more power and general consistency than Gurriel, so Hernandez might be the preferred option for a Jays team trying to win in 2023.  Whatever a decision could be, it doesn’t seem like both Gurriel and Hernandez (or maybe even either) will receive contract extensions, especially not if the Jays are also trying to lock up Guerrero and company.  If one or both of these outfielders aren’t in Toronto’s long-term plans, a trade this offseason might be the best answer.

The Jays might also look into dealing from their second base mix of Merrifield, Santiago Espinal, and Cavan Biggio, if they plan to deploy Merrifield in more of an everyday role.  The 2022 campaign was the worst statistical season of Merrifield’s career, though he hit significantly better after the Blue Jays acquired him from the Royals.  Depending on how much Toronto intends to use Merrifield in the outfield as well as second base, the Jays could dangle Espinal or Biggio in trade talks, and give rookie Otto Lopez a longer look in the infield picture.

As noted, Toronto’s lineup was quite potent last season, so there is a limit to how much of a shake-up the front office needs (or wants) to make.  But, moving at least one regular create rooms for the Jays to diversify their lineup, whether that’s adding speed, more athleticism, or one or two left-handed everyday bats to a very right-handed batting order.  The 2022 Jays had a regular lineup that was almost entirely right-handed and a bench that was almost entirely left-handed, with lefty swingers like Tapia, Biggio, Bradley, and Zimmer providing subpar offense.

The bullpen also tilted to the right-hand side, as Tim Mayza was the only southpaw who received significant innings last year.  Adding another reliable left-hander is one obvious need, and Atkins has noted that the Jays will also look to add another power arm to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts.  Anthony Bass and David Phelps both pitched well last year, so the Blue Jays are likely to exercise their club option on Bass and at least look into re-signing Phelps in free agency.

The front office hasn’t traditionally invested big dollars into the relief market, though they have been aggressive in adding new arms via multiple trades over the last few seasons.  It’s probably safe to expect that same strategy this winter, though the Jays will have more difficulty in picking and choosing which relievers to keep from what was (the playoff meltdown notwithstanding) a decent bullpen.

While just getting back to the postseason was no small feat in the wake of the Jays’ near-miss in 2021, their playoff trips in both 2020 and 2022 have yet to yield a single win, let alone a series victory.  The 2022 campaign revealed that the Blue Jays have to find ways to improve — both to just keep up with the ever-competitive AL East, and to establish themselves as a true threat in October.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By | at

The Brewers have often been competitive without being big spenders. They fell off of that fine line in 2022, trading away their closer and stumbling out of the postseason picture down the stretch. Unless there’s a payroll boost coming, some more tough financial decisions might be over the horizon.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $162.5MM through 2028 (including $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $18.5MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout of 2028 club option)
  • Freddy Peralta, RHP: $10.5MM through 2024 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)

Total 2023 commitments: $30.5MM
Total future commitments: $191.5MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

For much of 2022, it seemed that the Brewers were cruising to a fifth straight postseason appearance. As July was winding down and the trade deadline was drawing near, they were sitting atop the NL Central, four games clear of the Cardinals. A team in that position would normally lean into the “buyer” category, but Milwaukee tried to have it both ways. They traded their star closer Josh Hader, and his increasingly-expensive salary, to the Padres. They added some young players to their farm system and surely hoped that the bullpen would be fine without him, with the plan being that Devin Williams would step into the closer’s role, supported by deadline acquisitions Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal.

Unfortunately, rumors quickly began swirling that the move had a deleterious effect on the morale in the clubhouse. While that can’t be definitively quantified, what is certainly true is that the move didn’t pan out on the field. Rogers and Bush both struggled after the move while an injury kept Rosenthal from ever joining the club. The Brewers went 29-31 from the start of August until the end of the schedule, yielding the Central to the Cardinals and finishing one game behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot.

President of baseball operations David Stearns is under contract for 2023, though there was reportedly some type of opt-out in his contract that could have allowed him to pursue other opportunities. It was unclear if the Brewers had to reach the NLCS or the World Series to put him in position to trigger that opt-out, although it’s now a moot point since the club missed the playoffs entirely. Stearns is a New York native and has been frequently mentioned in rumors connecting him to the Mets, but the Brewers have denied him the opportunity to explore jobs with other organizations. It seems that he will be staying in Milwaukee for at least one more season.

It doesn’t seem like it will be an easy offseason for him to navigate, as the Hader trade didn’t solve the payroll situation for the Brewers. Never huge spenders, the club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $132MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That represented a franchise record but was still in the bottom half of the league, coming in 19th out of the 30 MLB teams. For 2023, Roster Resource estimates they’re already pretty close to that number, currently pegged at $118MM. They have a huge 18-player arbitration class and could improve their financial situation with a few non-tenders, though that would also create more holes on a roster that already proved insufficient. Next year, the more balanced schedule means they will have fewer games within their weak division, which will only increase the challenge of competing in 2023. Unless another bump is coming for the budget, it’s possible Stearns will have to continue walking fine lines.

The starting rotation is currently in a strong position, as the club has six starters with varying levels of strength. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are clearly at the front end, with both showing ace potential at times. Freddy Peralta has some durability concerns but has shown himself capable of being almost as good as Burnes and Woodruff when healthy. That’s an extremely good front three, and it’s bolstered by Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby and Adrian Houser as serviceable back-end guys. However, all six of them are in line for raises in 2023. Peralta’s extension will lead to his salary going from $2.25MM up to $3.5MM next year, while Ashby’s will go from $700K to $1MM as part of his own extension. The other four starters will all be eligible for raises via arbitration. Back in September, Burnes discussed his status with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, very much aware of the fact he’s a candidate to follow the same path as Hader. It might be difficult for the Brewers to consider trading another star hurler after the Hader deal went so poorly, but taking that off the table will likely lead to difficult decisions elsewhere.

The bullpen is probably the least-impressive it’s been in some time, now that Hader is no longer atop the chart. However, Devin Williams still gives them an excellent starting point. He’s now thrown 155 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 2.03 ERA, 48.8% ground ball rate and 39.5% strikeout rate. His 11.5% walk rate is certainly on the high side, though he’s still been very effective. He racked up 26 holds and 15 saves in 2022 and seems ticketed for permanent closer duties going forward. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter but should still be well worth the salary bump.

The rest of the bullpen is a bit more murky. Rosenthal and Rogers are free agents. Matt Bush struggled after the trade but still finished the season with a 3.47 ERA on the season as a whole. He’ll be due a raise via arbitration but not a huge one. Brad Boxberger had another strong season for Milwaukee and can be retained via a $3MM club option. That might seem to be a fairly easy trigger at first glance, but his strikeout rate took a downturn this year and he’s turning 35 in May. Is the payroll tight enough for the Brewers to simply walk away and dedicate those resources elsewhere? Peter Strzelecki had a nice debut and hasn’t yet reached arbitration. However, pitchers like Trevor Gott, Luis Perdomo, Jandel Gustave and Brent Suter are all part of that huge arbitration class and none of them were outstanding in 2022. A few non-tenders would save the club a few bucks but would also weaken the overall depth. Either way, they will probably look to find some low-cost additions, either through free agency or waiver claims.

Behind the plate, the Brewers are facing the departure of Omar Narváez. His bat took a step back in 2022 but he still provided value with his glove. Without him, the primary catcher is Victor Caratini, who was having a strong season but finished quite poorly. Through the end of July, he was hitting .231/.355/.413 for a wRC+ of 121, but then slashed just .163/.234/.264 the rest of the way for a wRC+ of 39. Adding another backstop would make some sense, but they could also start the year with Alex Jackson and Mario Feliciano battling Caratini for playing time if the budget is tight.

Rowdy Tellez should have first base spoken for after a solid season at the plate. He hit 35 home runs and produced a batting line of .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. However, it’s possible the club will consider trading Tellez and giving first base to Keston Hiura, a possibility recently explored by MLBTR’s Maury Ahram. Hiura struck out in 41.7% of his plate appearances but still hit 14 home runs in 80 games and produced a 115 wRC+. He can play other positions at times but doesn’t get great marks for his work at second base or in left field. A trade could clear up some money but it also wouldn’t break the bank to keep Tellez and Hiura in some sort of platoon rotation.

Up the middle, Willy Adames has shortstop locked down but second base is a little less clear. The club has a $10MM club option over Kolten Wong’s services for 2023, which comes with a $2MM buyout. That net $8MM decision would normally be a very clear decision, with exercising it the obvious choice. However, given the potential payroll constraints and Wong’s unusually weak defensive year, it’s possible that the Brewers look to move on. Wong himself seemed to acknowledge all of this recently, realizing that it’s possible that he is replaced by prospect Brice Turang, who had a nice year in Triple-A. There’s also a couple of utility guys present, with Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau on the roster. They’re both coming off solid seasons, though at least one of them will likely need to cover third base due to the free agency of Jace Peterson. Though Peterson has never been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+, except in the shortened 2020 campaign, he got excellent marks for his work at the hot corner this year while also occasionally moving to first base, second base and the outfield corners.

In the outfield, Christian Yelich will continue manning one spot. He’s not quite living up to his salary, as he’s getting paid to be the MVP-level player he was in 2018 and 2019. He’s fallen short of that in each of the past three seasons but has still been a solid above-average regular. Hunter Renfroe could be in another corner, though he also could be a non-tender candidate based on his one-dimensional output. He hit 29 home runs in 2022 but was below-average at drawing walks and isn’t especially strong on defense. He’s certainly still a valuable player, but with a projected salary of $11.2MM, the Brewers could look to trade him and find a comparable player for less money on the free agent market.

In center field, 2023 will be the first full season of the post-Lorenzo Cain era. Jackson Chourio is considered by many to be one of the best prospects in the sport and the center fielder of the future in Milwaukee. However, he’s not yet reached his 19th birthday and will surely need some more time. Rookie Garrett Mitchell got some big league playing time down the stretch and fared well, though in a small sample of just 28 games. Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer each finished strong in Triple-A and could be ready for a jump to the majors quite soon. Esteury Ruiz, acquired from the Padres in the Hader deal, has already gotten a taste of the majors. However, the Brewers played him in left field more than center after trading for him.

The Brewers have some interesting decisions ahead of them this winter, as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign. They have some question marks in the outfield, especially if they let Renfroe go. They have some holes on the infield, especially if they don’t retain Wong. The bullpen certainly has room for some upgrades, as does their catching corps. To address those areas, there might not be a ton of money to work with, meaning it could be one more year on the tightrope.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Brewers-centric chat on 10-26-22. Click here to read the transcript.

A Closer Look At The Braves’ Payroll

By | at

Among the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans at the moment is whether star shortstop Dansby Swanson will be retained, and whether the long-circulating speculation about a potential run at Jacob deGrom, who’ll opt out of his Mets contract in a couple weeks, will come to fruition in the looming offseason. Either of those endeavors would likely require a nine-figure expenditure, and while Atlanta has spent plenty of money over the past half year, it’s worth taking a deeper look to see just how plausible those scenarios — and any other major splashes on the free-agent or trade markets — might be.

Firstly, with regard to that comment about the Braves spending money, any look at their payroll should begin with a recap of president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos’ historic run of contract extensions. Dating back to March, each of Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM), Austin Riley (ten years, $212MM), Michael Harris II (eight years, $72MM) and Spencer Strider (six years, $75MM) have put pen to paper on long-term deals, effectively etching them in stone alongside Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies as the Braves’ foundation for the foreseeable future. The Braves also preemptively exercised Charlie Morton’s $20MM club option for 2023 and tacked on another $20MM club option for the 2024 season.

It might not have been quite as jarring as seeing the Rangers spend a half-billion dollars on a pair of free agents in a span of about 72 hours last winter, but the Braves still put down their own half-billion dollar investment to keep the bulk of this 2022 core intact for the long haul. That doesn’t even include the eye-opening deadline addition of closer Raisel Iglesias, whom the Braves acquired at a relatively cut-rate prospect cost because they agreed to absorb the entirety of his remaining contract from the Angels. He’ll be paid $48MM from 2023-25.

What does that do to their payroll? As one might expect, even though the majority of the extensions have bargain potential and are backloaded in nature, the 2023 books have inflated in a hurry. The Braves owe a combined $153.8MM to the 15 players who have guaranteed contracts on next year’s books. Add in a potential $12.5MM salary for Jake Odorizzi, who has a player option, and the number jumps to $166.3MM.

Further taking into account Matt Swartz’s projected $20MM in arbitration salaries to Max Fried, A.J. Minter and Mike Soroka (presuming non-tenders for Guillermo Heredia, Silvino Bracho and Tyler Matzek, who recently had Tommy John surgery) — the number balloons to $188.3MM for 19 players. Round that out with pre-arbitration players earning at or near the league minimum, and the Braves will have just over $193MM on next year’s Opening Day roster, before even making an addition.

That figure checks in north of what was this season’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll of roughly $178MM, making the Braves one of just three teams in MLB whose current 2023 payroll projection would be a record high before even making a single move. (The Rockies and Blue Jays are also in this boat, by my calculation.)

Does that mean hope is lost for a significant offseason expenditure? Not necessarily. Braves chairman Terry McGuirk told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this month that his goal is to be able to allow his front office to field one of the sport’s five largest payrolls. That doesn’t mean the Braves will spend for the sole purpose of soaring up the payroll ranks, but it’s nonetheless a bold declaration from a team’s control person and the type of candor we rarely see from such personnel.

For context’s sake, the sport’s top five Opening Day payrolls in 2022, per figures from Cot’s Contracts, belonged to the Dodgers ($281MM), Mets ($264.5MM), Yankees ($246MM), Phillies ($229MM) and Padres ($211MM). The Braves already ranked ninth in Opening Day payroll this past season, and the projected increase to $193-194MM could well boost them another spot or two.

Of course, when looking at large-scale expenditures and top-five payrolls, the notion of the luxury tax has to be considered. The Braves have never before paid that tax, but if McGuirk is being earnest about fielding a top-five payroll, incurring luxury-related penalization becomes practically a given.

It should be noted, too, that while the Braves’ bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season should check in around $193MM (as things currently stand), the luxury bill is quite a bit higher. That’s the one “downside” to locking in so many stars so early; those extensions come with inherent luxury hits that would not have existed had the team gone year-to-year. Luxury taxation is based on the average annual value of a contract, so keeping Strider and Harris on one-year, pre-arbitration contracts for the 2023 season would’ve meant they’d count for around $1.5MM combined against the tax threshold. Instead, they’ll now come with a combined $21.5MM hit. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez already has the Braves projected for a bit more than $217MM in luxury obligations — only about $16MM shy of next year’s $233MM first-tier threshold.

Perhaps the Braves will be able to find some takers for a portion of the less-desirable contracts on the books. It’s hard to imagine any team wanting much to do with the remaining two years and $36MM on Marcell Ozuna’s ill-fated four-year deal, but finding a taker for Odorizzi’s final season or the one year and $4.5MM owed to backup catcher Manny Pina is more feasible.

Still, there’s no viable scenario where the Braves could shed enough payroll to be able to re-sign Swanson and make a play for one of the market’s other top free agents without skyrocketing into luxury territory. If McGuirk and Liberty Media (the corporation that owns the Braves) are genuinely willing to push toward a top-five payroll, though, then the Braves can’t be ruled out from making ample free-agent splashes this winter.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the team could yet have hope of extending top starter Max Fried. If that’s the case, the notion of re-signing Swanson and extending Fried alone would push the Braves into luxury territory. In other words, merely keeping the current group together will make the Braves a luxury tax payor. Adding a marquee free agent/trade acquisition (in addition to a potential Swanson and/or Fried deal) could send them hurtling toward the second tier of luxury penalization.

If the Braves are going to have a particularly active offseason — or even if they’re just going to maintain the status quo — they’re going to have to follow a Padres-esque trajectory and set themselves up as potentially annual luxury-tax payors for the foreseeable future.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By | at

Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time.  Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

Aside from a new manager, the White Sox don’t seem destined for a major shakeup after a very disappointing 2022 season.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lance Lynn, SP: $19.5MM through 2023.  Includes $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $18.25MM through 2023
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $46MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for 2025
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $29MM through 2023.  Includes $15MM club option ($15MM buyout) for 2024
  • Joe Kelly, RP: $10MM through 2023.  Includes $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
  • Kendall Graveman, RP: $16MM through 2024
  • Eloy Jimenez, DH/LF: $25.5MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout) for 2025 (also has club option for 2026)
  • Luis Robert, CF: $39MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2026 (also has club option for 2027)
  • Leury Garcia, IF/OF: $11MM through 2024
  • Jake Diekman, RP: $4.5MM through 2023.  Includes $4MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $10.5MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout) for 2025

Option Decisions

  • AJ Pollock, LF/CF: $13MM player option with a $5MM buyout
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (also has club option for 2024)
  • Josh Harrison, 2B: $5.625MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Total 2023 commitments: $135.47MM
Total future commitments: $249.85MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

What went wrong with the 2022 White Sox?  Take your pick.  Start with former manager Tony La Russa, whose storied tenures with the A’s, White Sox and Cardinals landed him in the Hall of Fame in 2014.  Upon being hired by the White Sox after the 2020 season, he’d been out of the dugout for nine years.  The White Sox won the AL Central under La Russa last year, but finished in second place with a .500 record in 2022.  Health issues prevented La Russa from managing in the season’s final month, and he eventually announced those issues would require him to step down rather than finish out a contract that ran through 2023.  Regarding the disappointing ’22 season, La Russa explained in a statement, “I was hired to provide positive, difference-making leadership and support. Our record is proof. I did not do my job.”

The club’s search for a new manager is ongoing, with Ozzie Guillen, Ron Washington, Pedro Grifol, and Joe Espada among those in the running.  Managers are not measurable in the way players are, and I think often tend to get too much credit or blame for a team’s record.  So I won’t try to get into the merits of each candidate, but hopefully this time around Rick Hahn, the team’s GM for the last decade, will have autonomy to make his own choice.  Hahn’s place as the team’s GM seems secure at least for now.  As Jon Heyman of the New York Post put it at the end of September, “It’s unlikely longtime White Sox general manager Rick Hahn will pay for the team’s stark underachievement…while owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s legendary loyalty worked against the baseball ops department with the Tony La Russa hiring, it likely works in their favor now.”

Turning to the players, disappointments and failures abound for a club that was a consensus favorite to win the AL Central and instead finished 11 games behind the Guardians.  We’ll start with the outfield, which served as the worst defensive unit in baseball.  Much of that has to do with Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets, who combined to take 30% of the team’s defensive innings in the outfield.  Vaughn, in particular, probably rates as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball in 2022.  While Sheets was exactly league average as a hitter, Vaughn improved to a 113 wRC+ as a sophomore.  We’ll get to first base later in this post, but that was Vaughn’s position through college and his brief time in the minors, and it seems he’ll finally settle in there for 2023.

That leaves the White Sox with only one outfielder definitively penciled in for next year: center fielder Luis Robert.  Robert, 25, did not take the star turn many anticipated in 2022.  Health has been a big part of that.  Robert played only 68 games in 2021 due to a right hip flexor strain that cost him more than three months.  Robert hit so well in 43 games since returning from that injury that 2022 seemed like his possible coming-out party.  Instead, he played in only 98 games, managing a 111 wRC+ while playing a middling center field.

Robert battled a groin strain in April, but then went on a 62-game tear in which he posted a 139 wRC+ despite a COVID stint in the middle.  After that run of success, Robert dealt with lightheadedness, blurred vision, a wrist sprain, and a bruised hand.  While Robert’s talent remains tantalizing, he’s played in just over half of his team’s games since 2021 and the White Sox have to be ready to call upon backups often next year.

One of those backups could again be AJ Pollock, who must decide between a $13MM player option and a $5MM buyout after the season.  As a 35-year-old coming off a down year, Pollock doesn’t figure to top the $8MM net value of that option on the open market, so the smart money is on him staying put.  The Sox also gave center field innings to Adam Engel, who can be retained affordably through arbitration but is not a lock given a 63 wRC+ on the season.

Pollock, Vaughn, and Eloy Jimenez served as Chicago’s left fielders this year.  Assuming Pollock takes more of a backup role, Vaughn moves to first, and Jimenez gets increased DH time, the White Sox need a new starting left fielder.  Several key White Sox hitters struggled against righties this year.  Free agency offers a particularly solid fit in Andrew Benintendi, a quality defender who hits right-handed pitching well.  Joc Pederson is another palatable option.  Pollock can complement in a lefty-mashing role.

Right field continues to be a revolving door for the White Sox; they haven’t found any success at the position since Avisail Garcia’s 2017 campaign.  24-year-old Oscar Colas might be able to break the mold.  Colas signed in January for $2.7MM and spent most of the season hitting well at High-A and Double-A, finishing his season at Triple-A.  Yoelqui Cespedes could be a factor as well, though he didn’t hit well enough at Double-A to suggest he’ll succeed in MLB.

Since neither the health of Robert nor the success of Colas is guaranteed, the Sox could consider a veteran addition capable of playing both center and right field.  Mike Yastrzemski, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, and Ramon Laureano could fit that description.  Bellinger could be non-tendered by the Dodgers, while Kiermaier’s club option will be bought out by the Rays.  Yastrzemski and Laureano are arbitration-eligible for the Giants and A’s, respectively, but could be trade candidates this winter.

Moving to the infield, the White Sox are in a tough spot with Yoan Moncada.  The 27-year-old is locked up at significant cost through at least 2024, but he has continued to alternate good and bad seasons since coming to the White Sox.  In 2022 he was both bad (career-worst 76 wRC+) and injured (oblique strain, multiple hamstring strains).  Barring a trade, the team will have to pencil Moncada in at third base again, with Jake Burger still serving as the backup option.

At shortstop, Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option is an easy choice to exercise.  Anderson is an excellent player when healthy, but has only played in 62% of the team’s games since 2021.  This year he dealt with a groin strain and a torn ligament in his left hand.  The White Sox caught lightning in a bottle with the strong play of veteran Elvis Andrus, who was released by the A’s in August.  If Andrus departs for a more clear starting job elsewhere, the club will need a good backup plan at shortstop much as they do with Robert in center field.

Second base was handled by Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia in 2022.  Harrison, 35, played capably, but there’s still a pretty good chance the team declines his $5.625MM option after the World Series.  Second base has been a void for the White Sox even longer than right field has; they haven’t really had a player excel there since Tadahito Iguchi in 2005, excepting 109 solid plate appearances from Nick Madrigal in the pandemic-shortened season.  Speaking of Madrigal, there’s a fair chance he’s made available this winter if the Cubs sign a shortstop.  The White Sox do still have Garcia under contract.  Danny Mendick could be an option as well, once he’s recovered from a torn ACL suffered in June.  The free agent market could offer players such as Jean Segura or Kolten Wong if their options are declined.  Brandon Drury could be a solid addition given his ability to play both second and third base.

Over at first base, vibes are strong that Jose Abreu will be allowed to leave as a free agent after nine successful seasons.  While I understand the desire to plug Vaughn in at his natural position and leave DH at-bats for Jimenez, Sheets, and Yasmani Grandal, the team seems fairly nonchalant about losing arguably their best hitter.  It’s true that a team with Abreu, Vaughn, and Jimenez has to make a defensive compromise by putting one of the latter two into a corner outfield spot.  Still, the offense takes a hit with the probable loss of Abreu.

In Jimenez, the White Sox have a third core position player who has missed significant time over the last two seasons.  Jimenez has missed even more time than Anderson and Robert, playing in only 43% of the team’s games since 2021.  26 in November, Jimenez remains capable of a monster offensive season if only he can stay healthy.  In 2021, he tore a pectoral muscle in spring training and made his season debut in late July.  This year, it was a late April hamstring strain that required surgery and cost Jimenez more than two months.  While the lack of communication between players and teams during the lockout is a significant variable here, it’s fair to ask: why can’t the White Sox keep Robert, Anderson, and Jimenez healthy?  Is it something inherent in the players, or the team?

Behind the plate, the White Sox have a repeat of the Moncada situation: stuck with with a player who has a big contract and hit really, really poorly in 2022.  Grandal, 34 in November, led all catchers with a 158 wRC+ in 2021 and was one of the worst-hitting backstops with a 68 mark this year.  Grandal dealt with back and knee injuries this year, following offseason knee surgery.  Unless they can unload his franchise-record contract somehow ($18.25MM of which remains), the White Sox have to hope he can bounce back and provide value in ’23.  Grandal hasn’t topped 627 1/3 innings behind the dish since 2019.  He needs to be complemented with a starting-caliber catcher.  Seby Zavala was able to fill that role this year with a surprising 111 wRC+ at the plate.  A veteran addition would still make sense here.

Moving to the rotation, the White Sox received better results than they could possibly have expected out of Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto, who combined for 337 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball.  The only thing holding Cease back from being a bona fide ace is his walk rate, which went up a tick this year to 10.4%.  He still managed to post a ridiculous 1.51 ERA over his final 23 starts.  The White Sox control Cease for three more years, and they may consider trying to lock him up beyond that.  Cueto, signed to a minor league deal in April, may sign elsewhere as a free agent.

Along with Moncada and Grandal, Lucas Giolito performed well below expectations this year.  While his SIERA was virtually identical to 2021, his ERA rose from 3.53 to 4.90.  Strikeouts, fastball velocity, and walks all moved in the wrong direction, and notably, Giolito’s batting average on balls in play rose from .269 to .340.  That can’t all be blamed on the team’s defense or on bad luck, as Giolito’s pitches were indeed hit harder than last year, per Statcast.  There’s not much to be done here except try to find a way to bounce back; Giolito is still a bargain at his projected $10.8MM arbitration salary.

On the other end of the spectrum, Michael Kopech pitched to a 4.73 SIERA but managed a 3.54 ERA, despite being the staff’s pre-eminent flyball pitcher working with the game’s worst defensive outfield.  Much of that ERA stems from a .223 BABIP.  It’s worth noting: if the skills Giolito and Kopech demonstrated in 2022 – strikeouts, walks, and groundballs – remain the exact same next year, you should expect Giolito to have the better season.

At any rate, the White Sox have four starting pitchers locked in for 2023.  Even with internal options like Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and eventually Garrett Crochet, the Sox would be well-served adding a starting pitcher.

With a collective 4.00 ERA, the White Sox did not get great results from their bullpen.  But again, ERA is unreliable, and the group did miss bats.  Having traded Craig Kimbrel on April 1st, the highest-leverage innings went to Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, and Reynaldo Lopez.  The first three are under contract for next year, and Lopez is under team control.  Veterans Joe Kelly and Jake Diekman are under contract as well, so Chicago’s bullpen seems pretty well set for next year unless they trade someone to trim salary.

The White Sox opened the season with a payroll over $190MM – easily the highest in franchise history.  Assuming Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, and Mendick are tendered contracts, they’ll have about $167MM committed to 18 players.  Add in eight more players at the league minimum and the payroll is around $172MM.  So if you’re Hahn, what do you do with a roster that is already largely in place for next year, and limited financial wiggle room?

Running a similar group back next year with a new manager isn’t as crazy as it sounds.  The Sox can add one decent defensive outfielder and get Vaughn into his natural position, and the outfield defense will improve greatly.  They could use a new second baseman plus rotation and catching depth.  Maybe Hahn will shake things up with some trades, though it’s not a team with any real surplus except possibly well-paid relievers.  Most of the pieces remain in place for a 90-win team – particularly if Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez are able to stay healthy next year.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

By | at

Despite the continued excellence of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the Angels had another disappointing season in 2022. With Ohtani one year from free agency and the team for sale, will 2023 be the last hurrah before a huge turning point for the organization?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mike Trout, OF: $283MM through 2030
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B: $152MM through 2026
  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $30MM through 2023
  • David Fletcher, IF: $20MM through 2025 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Max Stassi, C: $14.5MM through 2024 (including $500K buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Aaron Loup, LHP: $9.5MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Ryan Tepera, RHP: $7MM through 2023

Total 2023 commitments: $130.95MM
Total future commitments: $516MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

There was a period in 2022 when things were looking up for the Angels. The season actually began fairly well, with the club sporting a record of 27-17 through May 24. That was good enough for them to sit just a single game behind the Astros in the AL West, nine games ahead of the Mariners and firmly in the top AL Wild Card spot. Unfortunately, it’s essentially been a steep downward slide since that date. On May 25, the Angels started a losing streak that would eventually stretch to 14 games, with manager Joe Maddon getting fired during that period. Third base coach Phil Nevin took over on an interim basis. The managerial shakeup couldn’t change their trajectory, as they continued sliding and finished with a 73-89 record, missing the postseason for the eighth consecutive season and finishing below .500 seven straight. (Nevin has since been given a one-year deal to manage the team for 2023.)

On their way to that disappointing finish, it was reported in August that owner Arte Moreno was exploring selling the team, which has the potential to cast a pall over the near-term future of the franchise. Perhaps a new owner will emerge and inject some optimism into the club, like we’ve seen with Steve Cohen and the Mets. But it’s also possible that the uncertainty around the team’s future makes it difficult to make deals with players. Juan Soto seemed to be the most untouchable player on the Nationals, even though the club was trading away it’s veterans for prospects for most of 2021 and 2022. But the Nats are also exploring a sale and Soto was reportedly unwilling to consider an extension until the ownership question was settled, which quickly led to Soto being traded to the Padres, something that seemed unthinkable just a few weeks prior.

As this has been going on, many in the baseball world have begun salivating at the prospect of their favorite club acquiring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, assuming he will follow a similar path to Soto. There are some reasons to think an Ohtani trade could actually come to fruition, given that he’s now only a year away from reaching the open market. Extension talks have apparently not gained much traction and the Angels even toyed with the idea of trading him at this year’s deadline, though Moreno reportedly refused to approve any deal.

Until there’s more clarity with regards to the ownership situation, the rest of the club’s offseason plans figure to be shrouded in mystery as well. Is Ohtani available in trades or not? Will Moreno be aggressive in what could be last chance to put together a winner, or avoid cluttering the books with more lengthy commitments in order to appeal to potential buyers? If a new owner emerges in the coming months, will they be an all-in Steve Cohen-type or decide to tear it all down immediately like when Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter took over the Marlins? General manager Perry Minasian figures to have lots on his to-do list, regardless of who he’s reporting to.

The Angels have often struggled to put together a solid starting rotation, at least in part due to an unwillingness to pay for starters. The last time they signed a free agent starting pitcher to a deal longer than one year was the two-year deal given to Joe Blanton in December of 2012. Despite that, and despite everything that went wrong in 2022, the rotation might have turned a corner. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote back in September about the encouraging signs shown by Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez. Those three, alongside Ohtani, give the Angels a decent front four going into the offseason. The Angels have been using a six-man rotation to accommodate Ohtani in recent years, but have at least considered going with a five-man group next year. There are a few in-house options to take a fifth or a sixth rotation spot, such as Touki Toussaint, Tucker Davidson, Chase Silseth and Janson Junk, though no one in that group has done enough to guarantee a spot at this point. There’s also Griffin Canning, who has shown promise in the past but been limited so much by injuries that it’s hard to rely on him going forward.

It’s an impressive amount of depth compared to recent years, but there should still be room for at least one outside addition. However, if the Angels stick to their one-year limit on starting pitching, it will make things challenging. They’d likely be looking at options like Drew Smyly, Wade Miley or re-signing Michael Lorenzen. If they are willing to make a deeper dive, they could be in play for names like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga or Mike Clevinger, though it seems unlikely the Angels would jump to the top of the market and try for Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon.

The club’s bullpen was middle of the pack in 2022, with their 3.97 ERA coming in 18th among the 30 MLB teams. Most of that group can be retained, with only Archie Bradley heading for free agency. Injuries limited him to 18 2/3 innings and kept him from being a key contributor in 2022. They also dealt closer Raisel Iglesias at the deadline, but they may have found an in-house replacement. Jimmy Herget, known as “The Human Glitch” because of his funky mechanics, threw 69 innings this year with a 2.48 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 40.1% ground ball rate. He shimmied his way up the depth chart and eventually earned nine saves and seven holds, most of those coming after the Iglesias trade. Whether the Angels believe in Herget is their next closer or not, there’s plenty of room for improvement in the bullpen and they should be looking to make outside additions.

Behind the plate, the club faces an interesting question. Max Stassi had a pair of solid seasons in 2020 and 2021, but 2022 was a step backwards. He hit .180/.267/.303 for a wRC+ of 63 this year, a big drop from his .250/.333/.452 batting line over the previous two campaigns, which led to a wRC+ of 113. He still has a couple years left on his extension and will likely get some time to readjust, but the club might want to have a backup plan. It’s possible that they already have one in place, as they acquired Logan O’Hoppe from the Phillies at the deadline in the Brandon Marsh trade. He was mashing in Double-A and the club gave him an MLB audition down the stretch. It would be risky to go into the season relying on a catcher with five MLB games under his belt, though he did hit .283/.416/.544 in the minors this year for a wRC+ of 159. Perhaps the Angels will let him and Stassi battle for playing time and hope that at least one of them works out. If they want a bit of insurance, they could sign a respected veteran like Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges or Tucker Barnhart.

Similar to Stassi, Jared Walsh disappointed at first base on the heels of a couple of strong seasons. He hit 38 home runs over 2020 and 2021, slashing .280/.338/.531 for a wRC+ of 130. In 2022, his batting line was .215/.269/.374 for a wRC+ of just 78. It’s possible that health was the culprit here, as Walsh underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in September. He’ll likely get a chance to show that 2022 was just a fluke due to injury, but he’ll be a great unknown going into next season. If it emerges during the offseason that Walsh won’t be ready for Spring and they look for a stopgap, someone like Donovan Solano could make sense, as he could slide to another position once Walsh returns.

At third base, the Angels will be looking for a bounceback from Anthony Rendon. Given the years and dollars remaining on his contract, he’s not going anywhere. It doesn’t really make sense to give up on him, anyway. He’s had two straight injury-marred seasons, but was excellent for four straight campaigns prior to that. From 2017 to 2020, he hit .307/.399/.550 for a wRC+ of 146 and also provided above-average defense, leading to a tally of 21.1 fWAR over that period. He’s going into his age-33 campaign and perhaps shouldn’t be expected to be as good as his peak, though the Angels can do little but hope for him to stay healthy and get back into good form.

The middle infield is perhaps the area of the club in greatest need of an overhaul. In 2022, the Angels used a rotating hodgepodge of role players and utility types, which included Matt Duffy, Andrew Velazquez, Tyler Wade and many others. If one were to try to project their lineup for next year with only in-house options, it would probably result in David Fletcher at shortstop and Luis Rengifo at second base. Fletcher missed most of 2022 with injuries, only getting into 61 games and not hitting very well in that time. His .255/.288/.333 batting line resulted in a 75 wRC+. Outside of a tremendous showing in the shortened 2020 season, Fletcher’s time in the big leagues has resulted in four below-average offensive seasons. He does post strong defensive numbers wherever he plays, but he is perhaps better suited to a utility role than an everyday shortstop job.

As for Rengifo, he had a nice season at the plate, despite walking in only 3.3% of his plate appearances. He hit 17 home runs in 127 games, leading to a batting line of .264/.294/.429, 103 wRC+. The Angels probably would like to give Rengifo a chance to see if he can carry that production into his age-26 season, though he’s capable of playing many positions and doesn’t necessarily need to be guarantee a specific spot. As a switch-hitter, it would be theoretically possible for he and the right-handed-hitting Fletcher to form a platoon, though both have hit better against lefties in their careers, making it an imperfect fit.

From a baseball perspective, the Angels make sense as a landing spot for one of the big four shortstops this winter. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are free agents, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Any of those four would give some more pop to the Angel lineup and also help out a defense that was lacking in 2022. The Angels collectively posted a Defensive Runs Saved of eight, which placed them 17th in the majors. Outs Above Average gave them a 1 for 18th place while Ultimate Zone Rating had them in 20th place at -8.0.

From a business perspective, the fit might not be so smooth. As mentioned earlier, it’s unknown if the Angels want to make significant commitments to the long-term payroll. Each of those four shortstops are likely to command deals of seven years or longer. Even if the Angels were willing to add another contract like that to the books, would the player want to come to a team with so much uncertainty hovering over it?

In the short-term, the Angels should have some money to spend, assuming they’re willing to at least match recent payroll levels. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their Opening Day payroll for 2022 as $189MM, a slight bump over 2021. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $133MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. Arbitration-eligible players will add about $12MM or so that, bringing the total to the vicinity of $145MM. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level to the past couple of seasons, they will have around $40MM to play with. If they can’t convince one of the top shortstops to make a deal, they would make sense for other middle infielders like Elvis Andrus, Jose Iglesias or Jean Segura.

Turning to the outfield, two spots should be spoken for already, with Trout obviously entrenched in center. Taylor Ward got his first real stretch of MLB playing time, despite some minor injuries, and responded by hitting 23 home runs and slashing .281/.360/.473 for a wRC+ of 137. He should have the right field job.

The big question is left field, with Brandon Marsh having been traded to the Phillies at the deadline. Mickey Moniak came over from the Phils in a separate deal, the Noah Syndergaard one. Despite being a former first overall selection, he hasn’t been able to do much to establish himself at the big league level. In 167 plate appearances over three seasons, he’s hit just .157/.218/.268, wRC+ of 32. There’s also Jo Adell, who got 285 plate appearances this year but hit just .224/.264/.373 for a wRC+ of 77. He also struck out in an untenable 37.5% of those appearances. Neither should be relied upon as an Opening Day outfielder for the club, meaning they should look to outside acquisitions. A run at Aaron Judge seems unlikely given all the question marks around the team, though there are plenty other serviceable options. Mitch Haniger is risky given his health, but that also means he might have to settle for a one-year deal. Perhaps the Angels are the team to offer Michael Conforto the everyday spot for him to showcase his health. However it’s done, this is an area that should be addressed.

The Angels are going into the offseason in a position that is in some ways very familiar but also fraught with uncertainty. Each recent season has finished with disappointment, but still with enough talent on the roster to keep the hope flowing down the road. This year is similar in that regard. They were below .500 in 2022 but they still have Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Ward, a rotation that looks to be in okay shape, and some other nice pieces. However, they also have obvious holes and will face significant challenges in trying to fill them. How willing is Moreno to spend on a team he’s trying to sell? If a new owner steps up, do they want to spend or save? Which players are willing to join a franchise with such a murky future? The answers to those questions will shape not just this offseason, but the future of the franchise.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Angels-centric chat on 10-25-22. Click here to read the transcript!

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

By | at

MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class in recent weeks. We’ll wrap up the positional player side of things today by checking in on the crop of designated hitters.

Obviously, any hitter is capable of serving as a DH. Many of the players we’ve mentioned at other positions in this series will see sporadic time at DH next year, typically as a way to get them off their feet defensively for a game without pulling their bat completely from the lineup. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll draw the line here at players who either started 40+ games at designated hitter or played more games at DH than at any other position this year. It’s an admittedly arbitrary cutoff but filters out most players who spent a significant portion of their time in the field (and were thus covered in one of our earlier positional previews).

Everyday Players

Aside from the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Martinez has been a well above-average hitter every year since breaking out with the Tigers in 2014. That was again the case in 2022, although this year’s .274/.341/.448 line was his lightest offensive output since his breakout. The dip was tied almost entirely to a drop in his home run power, as his 16 longballs marked his lowest full-season total since 2013. Martinez saw a corresponding drop in his average exit velocity and hard hit percentage, all somewhat worrying signs for a player who’s now 35.

Even as his batted ball metrics and power dropped, however, Martinez was an eminently productive part of the Boston lineup. He didn’t hit as many homers, but he cranked out a career-high 43 doubles. His exit velocities weren’t elite as they’d been in prior seasons, but they were still above-average. Martinez continued to display a knack for roping line drives all around the ballpark, and his batting average and on-base percentage each remained roughly 30 points higher than the respective league marks. In short, Martinez is still a good hitter, even if he no longer looks like the elite masher he was at his peak.

Martinez has some prior experience in the corner outfield, but he didn’t log a single defensive inning this past season. Any team that signs him is doing so for his bat. His age, lack of defensive value and dip in power will all limit the length of his next deal, but there’ll no doubt be plenty of interest from teams on shorter-term arrangements. The Red Sox seem unlikely to tag Martinez with a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he lands a two-year deal that tops that overall guarantee (albeit with a lesser annual salary).

It’s difficult to imagine a more unpredictable 2022 season than Carpenter’s. The three-time All-Star hit just .203/.325/.346 between 2019-21, leaving him to take a minor league deal with the Rangers last offseason. He overhauled his swing mechanics and while he performed well in Triple-A, Texas didn’t give him a big league look. After being granted his release from his Rangers deal, Carpenter signed a big league contract with the Yankees to work primarily as a left-handed bench bat.

He very quickly played himself into a more significant role with a staggering offensive explosion. Carpenter popped 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, posting a .305/.412/.727 line. He worked primarily at DH but logged some action around the diamond as a bat-first utility type, playing the corner outfield, first base and getting a brief look at third base. That was all a way to get Carpenter’s scorching bat into the lineup, but his incredible season was cut short in August when he fouled a ball off his left foot and suffered a fracture. He missed the rest of the regular season, and while he returned in a limited capacity for the postseason, the effects of the layoff showed. He went 1-12 with nine strikeouts in six playoff games.

Carpenter’s regular season performance was incredible, though. He posted a 217 wRC+, indicating he was 117 percentage points more productive than the average hitter. Barry Bonds is the only other player since 2000 to have a wRC+ north of 210 in a season in which he tallied 150+ plate appearances (Bonds got there every year from 2001-04). Even in a relatively small sample size, it’s exceedingly difficult to do what Carpenter achieved. He certainly won’t replicate that kind of production over a full season, but teams will have to weigh this year’s incredible two months against what looked to be a rapid decline over the preceding few years.

The seemingly ageless Cruz remained one of the game’s prolific sluggers well past his 40th birthday. He was still tearing the cover off the ball for the Twins early in the 2021 season, but his production dipped in the second half following a trade to the Rays. The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a $15MM guarantee last offseason in hopes he’d be a coveted midseason trade candidate. That didn’t happen.

Cruz played 124 games for the Nats, but he hit just .234/.313/.337 with 10 homers across 507 plate appearances. It was his first below-average offensive season since 2007. His plate discipline didn’t change much, but he saw a notable drop in his hard contact rate and posted his lowest average exit velocity since Statcast began tracking in 2015. Even that personal-low 90.9 MPH exit velocity is a few ticks above average, but Cruz muted his power impact by driving the ball into the ground. More than half his batted balls were hit on the ground, an alarming sign for a lumbering slugger.

He underwent left eye surgery after the season to clear some inflammation that had impacted his vision, offering a possible explanation for his rapid drop in performance. It was an alarming season that’ll surely result in a notable paycut this winter, although he still seems likely to find a big league opportunity. Cruz is generally revered for his clubhouse leadership, and his pre-2022 track record is strong enough another team figures to take a shot on him as at least a part-time player.

Corner Outfield/DH Hybrids

Brantley has been the prototypical “professional hitter” for the past decade. That continued early this season, as he was off to an excellent .288/.370/.416 start across 277 plate appearances. He only managed five home runs, but he picked up 14 doubles and walked more often than he struck out. It was the kind of high average, high-OBP skill set to which we’ve become accustomed from Brantley. Houston gave him 35 games at DH and 29 games in left field, rotating him and Yordan Alvarez between the two positions in an effort to keep both fresh.

While Brantley continued to produce, his season was cut short by a right shoulder injury. He first landed on the injured list in late June, and after six weeks of rehab, he underwent season-ending surgery. Brantley plans to continue playing and is expected to be ready for Spring Training, but he’ll turn 36 next May. The surgery was on his non-throwing shoulder, so he’ll probably continue to see some left field work, but it stands to reason a signing team will use him heavily as a DH to manage his reps at this stage of his career.

Mancini split his time rather evenly between DH and the field, although he bounced between first base and both corner outfield positions. He’s not a great fit in the outfield but plays a solid first base. Mancini has been a slightly above-average hitter for two consecutive seasons since successfully returning from his battle with colon cancer in 2020. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a .247/.323/.412 line in a bit more than 1200 plate appearances.

While he lacks a standout tool, Mancini brings a well-rounded skillset to the table. He makes a fair amount of contact, draws walks and has decent power, although his 35-homer season from 2019 looks increasingly like an outlier. Pair that solid overall on-field package with a strong clubhouse reputation, and Mancini should be able to find a multi-year deal this offseason.

McCutchen signed an $8.5MM pact with the Brewers last offseason to split his time between DH and the corner outfield. He spent the bulk of his days at designated hitter, appearing in 82 games there compared to 53 contests in the outfield. McCutchen stayed healthy and tallied 580 plate appearances, but he had the least productive offensive showing of his big league career. He hit .237/.316/.384, roughly league average offense. He was fine but unexceptional against left and right-handed pitchers alike, a somewhat disappointing turn after he’d mashed southpaws over a three-year stint with the Phillies.

It’s likely McCutchen will be looking at a lower salary next season, and he may not find quite as much playing time as he did this year. Still, he’s a strong veteran presence who works plenty of walks and has decent power. In a more limited platoon setup, he could potentially recapture some of his earlier success against left-handed pitching.

Depth Types

Santana saw a fair bit of action at both first base and DH this past season, although the Mariners increasingly relied upon him as a bat-only player late in the year. He tallied 506 plate appearances between the Royals and Seattle, hitting at a roughly league average level with both clubs en route to a cumulative .202/.316/.376 line. Santana is among the game’s best at drawing walks and he’s tough to strike out, but he consistently posts very low batting averages on balls in play and hasn’t hit above .214 in any of the past three seasons.

Aguilar was the primary first baseman for the Brewers and Marlins for a while, a run that included a 35-homer season with Milwaukee. His time in Miami came to an end when he was released in August after hitting .236/.286/.388 across 456 plate appearances. He latched on with the Orioles for the season’s final month but didn’t do much over 16 games. He could be looking at minor league offers this winter.

An everyday third baseman with the Diamondbacks early in his career, Lamb has functioned as a bat-first depth option for a handful of teams in recent years. He’s played for six different clubs since the start of 2020, including a ’22 campaign split between the Dodgers and Mariners. Lamb hit .239/.338/.433 in 25 games with L.A. but stumbled to a .167/.265/.300 line over 16 contests in Seattle before being released. He’s capable of playing all four corner spots in addition to working as a designated hitter and should get some minor league offers after a big showing in Triple-A.

A four-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger award winner, Upton has had an accomplished 16-year big league career. He’s struggled significantly going back to the start of the 2019 season, however, and the Angels released him on the eve of Opening Day despite owing him a $28MM salary. Upton went on to sign with the Mariners and got into 17 games for Seattle, but he managed just a .125/.263/.208 line over 57 plate appearances. He declined a minor league assignment in favor of free agency in July and sat out the rest of the season. There’d presumably be a Spring Training invitation out there for Upton if he wanted to give it another go, but having banked upwards of $173MM in career earnings, he certainly won’t feel any financial pressure to keep playing.

Another player who’s potentially at the end of what has been an impressive career, Lowrie has played 14 seasons and earned an All-Star nod. He was a decent hitter for the A’s as recently as 2021, but a return to Oakland this past season didn’t pan out. The switch-hitter posted a .180/.245/.263 line through 50 games, seeing essentially all of his time at DH. The A’s released him in August.

A longtime minor leaguer, Mercedes briefly vaulted himself into the national spotlight in April 2021 with an incredible first month for the White Sox. He tailed off midway through the season, though, finishing that year with a roughly average .271/.328/.404 overall line and spending the second half of the season in Triple-A. Chicago lost him on waivers to the Giants in mid-June, and Mercedes went on to appear in 31 games with San Francisco. He hit .233/.325/.342 while playing almost exclusively DH or the corner outfield. His days as a catcher look mostly behind him, leaving him as a bat-first depth player without a real defensive home. San Francisco outrighted him off the roster in September after he went unclaimed on waivers, and he elected minor league free agency at the end of the year.

Dickerson received a big league deal with the Braves, signing for $1MM in Spring Training. He posted a .121/.194/.212 line in 13 April games before being designated for assignment and going unclaimed on waivers. Dickerson spent the rest of the year in Triple-A, putting up a slightly bel0w-average .239/.305/.425 mark across 357 plate appearances. He elected free agency at the end of the season and could get another minor league opportunity as a corner outfield/DH depth player.

Players With Club Options

Turner got off to a slow start this year, seemingly raising questions about how much he had left in the tank at age 37. He went on a tear in the second half and put those doubts to rest, concluding the season with a quality .278/.350/.438 line over 532 plate appearances. The Dodgers are as willing as any team to pay a lofty one-year salary for a productive player, and it now looks likely they’ll keep Turner around for a tenth season in L.A. He split his time almost evenly between third base and DH this past season and could assume a similar role next year.

Note: Charlie Blackmon is excluded from this list after going on record with his intention to exercise a $15MM player option.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field

Mariners Could Be In Position To Deal From Starting Pitching Depth

By | at

Going into next year, the Mariners have considerable depth in their rotation. Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray are locked in for the foreseeable future on nine-figure contracts, while both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby proved this season that they fit right in as capable starters who can take the ball in the playoffs. One might expect Chris Flexen, coming off a solid season at the back of Seattle’s rotation that saw him vest an $8MM option for the 2023 season, to bring up the rear.

However, it’s also possible the M’s look to deal Flexen for help elsewhere on the roster this winter. As part of a reader mailbag, The Athletic’s Corey Brock notes that multiple teams inquired about the right-hander at this past trade deadline. Brock opines the M’s could more earnestly shop Flexen for offensive help over the offseason.

After coming over to the Mariners from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Flexen had a strong first season in Seattle that surpassed expectations. He made 31 starts, posting a 3.61 ERA in 179 2/3 innings while compensating for his low 16.9% strikeout rate with a minuscule 5.4% walk rate and a knack for avoiding barrels. Because of this, his performance was generally backed up by the peripherals, leading to a strong 3.89 FIP in 2021.

While those numbers are sufficiently impressive one might assume Flexen is a lock for a rotation spot next year, his follow-up to that campaign in 2022 was less impressive. While his 3.73 ERA this season may not seem like a significant departure from last year, due to the drastically more pitcher-friendly run environment this season, his ERA+ dropped from a solidly above average 114 in 2021 to a just a touch below league average 99 in 2022. Flexen’s dip in performance is further explained by regression in all of his peripherals this season: His groundball rate plummeted from 42.4% in 2021 all the way down to 33.8% in 2022, his walk rate jumped up to a still solid but less impressive 8.6%, and his FIP ballooned up to 4.49. All this lead to the Mariners moving Flexen to the bullpen following their acquisition of Castillo at this season’s trade deadline.

It would certainly make sense for the Mariners to entertain offers on Flexen, particularly with the glut of options the Mariners have for the back of the rotation. Marco Gonzales made 32 starts this year and is under contract for another two seasons (with a club option thereafter). Seattle could theoretically shop Gonzales this winter instead of Flexen, but they elected to stick with the southpaw over Flexen as the #5 starter down the stretch. The M’s also have promising young arms such as Emerson Hancock who may be ready to make the jump to the majors next year.

Between Flexen’s $8MM salary for next season and his dip in performance during 2022, the Mariners wouldn’t recoup an astronomical return. There’ll be a fair number of back of the rotation, innings eating arms in free agency. Many of those pitchers will require multi-year deals, while Flexen will be a free agent after 2023. That shorter commitment could make him more appealing than a free agent landing multiple years at a similar annual salary, but the number of available alternatives will cut against the quality of the trade package Seattle receives.

Given this, the best fit for a Flexen trade would likely be a budget-conscious team who has a bat either under contract or arbitration control at a price higher than they would like to pay. One possible example of such a situation would be the Guardians and Amed Rosario. As Steve Adams discussed earlier today, Rosario is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $9MM in arbitration for the 2023 season, and the Guardians have a glut of young talent available, such as Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, who could potentially be cheaper options to pair with 2022 breakout star Andres Gimenez up the middle.

Rosario, who hit .283/.312/.403 (103 wRC+) this season, has primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but would surely represent an upgrade over Adam Frazier at second base. Meanwhile, the Guardians might appreciate a durable, back of the rotation pitcher who’s already swung between the bullpen and the rotation in his career to line up behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill in the rotation, leaving the likes of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to compete with youngsters like Konnor Pilkington and Cody Morris for the fifth spot in Cleveland’s rotation. The Guardians aren’t likely to jump at a one-for-one swap of Flexen and Rosario, but it’s possible they could have interest in a bigger trade package that sees those players swap teams.

The Guardians represent just one possible option in this mold, however. The Orioles could be open to dealing some offensive talent to shore up a rotation full of question marks. The Rays may look to move on from first baseman Ji-Man Choi, who could replace Carlos Santana in the DH spot next year for the Mariners. Those are just a few of a number of teams that could be in touch with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff about Flexen this winter.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top