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MLBTR Originals

The Rangers’ Multi-Inning Relief Weapon

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2023 at 11:17pm CDT

The Rangers spent most of last year out of playoff contention, in significant part due to an inability to win close games. Texas finished 26 games under .500 despite a relatively modest -36 run differential, with a staggering 15-35 record in one-run contests dooming any chance they had of sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race.

Any time a team is that bad in close games, it’s safe to assume they were victimized by a lack of clutch hitting. That was true of Texas, although their struggles also reflected a middling relief corps. Ranger relievers finished 21st in strikeout/walk rate differential and tied for sixth in blown saves (28). Nevertheless, the Rangers shied away from any splashy additions to the bullpen this winter. They instead poured virtually all their resources into completely overhauling the starting rotation.

That’s a strong show of faith in the club’s internal bullpen options. It’s a relatively young group but one that has a few players coming off strong 2022 seasons. Hard-throwing righties José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández returned from Tommy John rehabs to impress down the stretch. Meanwhile, left-hander Brock Burke quietly put forth an excellent year as a multi-inning weapon.

Burke underwent a significant surgery of his own a few years back. He’d debuted in the big leagues with six unsuccessful starts in 2019 and required a procedure to fix a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder the ensuing offseason. Burke would’ve missed the entire ’20 season regardless of whether a full schedule were played. He returned to health in 2021 but spent the whole year on optional assignment to Triple-A Round Rock.

When he took the mound for his 2022 debut on April 10, it represented his first big league outing in two and a half years. The Rangers unsurprisingly deployed him in mostly low-stakes innings for the season’s first month. After posting a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of April, Burke increasingly found himself in more meaningful game states. He’d remain a consistent weapon throughout the year, posting an ERA below 4.00 in each month — including a sub-3.00 mark for the first four months of the season.

Called upon 52 times, Burke soaked up an MLB-leading 82 1/3 innings of relief. No reliever faced more than the 328 batters that stepped in against him. Despite frequently going into a second inning, Burke remained very productive on a per-batter basis. He held opponents to a putrid .211/.275/.356 line, striking out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced with a solid 7.3% walk rate. He compiled a 1.97 ERA. Estimators like FIP and SIERA felt his production was more akin to that of a low-3.00’s ERA hurler, but even regression to that level would leave Burke as a quality high-leverage arm.

Now 26, Burke had been a solid prospect prior to his shoulder injury. Acquired from the Rays in the three-team deal that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland over the 2018-19 offseason, he appeared among Texas’ top 30 farmhands at Baseball America over his first two years in the organization. Evaluators regarded him as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, though his injury threw that off course. Burke told reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic) over the offseason he was hopeful of getting another crack in the rotation. The Rangers’ activity in that regard rules that out, at least to open the year, and the former third-round draftee added he was content with whatever role he’s assigned.

The Rangers seem poised to count on him even more heavily out of the bullpen. General manager Chris Young left open the possibility of Burke getting some ninth-inning work for the first time in his career, though he suggested the multi-inning fireman role might be more valuable for first-year skipper Bruce Bochy. Young implied the team could look to get Burke as many as 100 innings of relief in 2023, a tally only once reached in MLB over the past decade (by then-Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, who frequently operated as a bulk pitcher behind an opener, in 2018).

Whatever the role, it’s clear Burke has put himself among Texas’ most important relievers. The club watched Matt Moore sign with the division-rival Angels and lost Brett Martin for at least the bulk of the upcoming season to shoulder surgery. Taylor Hearn, John King and non-roster invitee Danny Duffy are still in the mix, but the Rangers’ left-handed bullpen contingent isn’t as strong as it was six months ago. Burke certainly won’t function in a lefty specialist capacity but is certain to get plenty of looks against opposing teams’ best hitters from either side of the dish. While that wasn’t the case at this time a year ago, he’s now entrenched in the bullpen after his breakout season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Brock Burke

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Examining The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Options

By Nick Deeds | February 21, 2023 at 10:38pm CDT

Longtime Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is expected to begin the season on the injured list, setting the 2023 Opening Day roster in Chicago up to be the first one to not include a member of the 2016 World Series championship team since 2012 following the departure of Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward over the offseason. As fans on the north side of Chicago begin getting used to the new era of Cubs baseball, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s front office has an important question to answer this spring: who will take Hendricks’s turn in the rotation while he’s injured?

As manager David Ross told reporters, including the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro, young righties Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay do not figure into the club’s rotation plans, with both players expected to start the season as members of the bullpen. That still leaves plenty of options for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation behind Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Drew Smyly, however. Two players in particular seem. to have the inside track toward the first crack at starting for the big league club in 2023:

Adrian Sampson

Perhaps the most likely contender for the role, the journeyman Sampson is entering his age-31 season with a strong chance at an extended look in the big leagues for just the third time in his career. Sampson’s tenure as a member of the Cubs began late in the 2021 season following a late August call-up. Across 10 appearances and five starts, Sampson pitched well, with a 2.80 ERA (152 ERA+) in his 35 1/3 innings of work. The underlying metrics didn’t feel so positively about his performance, however, as Sampson allowed a minuscule .232 BABIP and left a whopping 88.4% of runners on base despite over one in five of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Those red flags left him with a concerning 5.72 ERA, but the Cubs saw enough in Sampson to sign him to another minors deal for the 2022 season.

The 2022 season proved to be something of a revelation for Sampson after he received an opportunity in Chicago’s rotation following a slew of injuries. In 104 1/3 innings across 21 appearances (19 starts), Sampson pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (132 ERA+) that, unlike the previous season, was more supported by underlying metrics. Sampson’s BABIP of .288 and LOB% of 77.6% both returned to figures far closer to his career norms of .299 and 76%, respectively, giving him a much more palatable 3.79 FIP on the season. Much of this improvement came from a drastically reduced home run rate, however, as Sampson saw just 7.7% of his fly balls allowed leave the yard during the 2022 campaign. That rate isn’t likely to be sustainable going forward, leaving a major red flag in Sampson’s profile entering the 2023 season.

Given his success in 2022 and the $1.9MM salary he agreed to for 2023 in a pre-tender deal with the Cubs, it would make plenty of sense if the veteran righty had the inside track to the fifth starter’s job to open the 2023 season even in spite of those concerns. That being said, Sampson still has a minor league option remaining, meaning he could be stashed in Triple-A as depth should he not make the Opening Day rotation. Furthermore, for a team like the Cubs with a handful of pitching prospects approaching the big leagues, it would be understandable for the organization to prioritize figuring out what they have in those youngsters over giving a journeyman like Sampson an extended run, even following his big league success in 2022.

Hayden Wesneski

One such pitching prospect is Wesneski, the right-hander the Cubs acquired from the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski made his big league debut in September and found instant success, even throwing an immaculate inning during his late season cup of coffee. Overall, Wesneski pitched to a sterling 2.18 ERA (190 ERA+) over 33 innings. He also struck out a quarter of opponents with a meager 5.3% walk rate, leading to an excellent 3.20 FIP backing up his raw run prevention numbers.

This fantastic performance towards the end of the season has seen Wesneski generate considerable hype throughout the offseason, and he enters Spring Training as Sampson’s likely biggest challenger for the fifth starter role in Chicago. As previously mentioned, the Cubs have an assortment of interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels of their minor league system, including Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, and DJ Herz. Given this reality, it would make plenty of sense for the Cubs to use these early season innings to get Wesneski more experience against big league pitching and see how the league adjusts to him following his strong debut.

However, with just four starts and six total appearances in the big leagues under his belt, it would be understandable if the Cubs wanted to take things slowly with Wesneski. After all, the righty just turned 25 years old and has multiple minor league option years remaining. Additionally, Wesneski’s 143 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2022 was a career high, so it’s possible the Cubs will be keeping a close eye on his innings this season, while the club is still working towards a return to contention.

Other Options

While Sampson and Wesneski appear to be the front-runners for the job, there’s a few other players who seem likely to be in the mix for the fifth spot in Chicago’s Opening Day rotation. Ross specifically mentioned right-hander Javier Assad as a potential candidate. Assad, like Wesneski, is entering his age-25 season in 2023 and received a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022. Over 37 2/3 innings across nine appearances and eight starts, Assad pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (133 ERA+), though his unimpressive 18.1% strikeout rate and concerning 12% walk rate leave plenty of room for concern, as demonstrated by his 4.49 FIP.

In addition to Assad, a pair of non-roster invitees could see consideration for a rotation spot. Nick Neidert spent his career as a member of the Mariners and Marlins organizations prior to signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal this offseason, and pitched well in 2022, both in 46 innings at the Triple-A level (1.96 ERA) and in a spot start for the Marlins in the big leagues (3.60 ERA over five innings), though he spent much of the season on the injured list.

Meanwhile, Roenis Elias has some success in the big leagues, with a career 3.96 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.26 FIP in 395 2/3 innings of work in the big leagues. Elias also delivered a particularly strong performance in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, posting a fantastic 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work. On the other hand, most of Elias’s recent big league experience has come out of the bullpen, with the lefty starting just 5 major league games since the start of the 2016 season. Both Elias and Assad are also set to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring, giving the Cubs a unique potential look at their abilities in a more competitive setting than Spring Training can usually provide.

Between Sampson, Wesneski, and the above trio of darkhorse options, the Cubs have an interesting choice to make ahead of Opening Day regarding who will take up Hendricks’s spot in the rotation until he returns from the injured list. It’s possible injuries could make the decision easier by that time, either by taking options out of the running or opening up more spots in the rotation for those competing. Even if that happens, though, the Cubs appear to be in a good place in terms of quality starting pitching depth as they begin to prepare for the 2023 campaign.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Adrian Sampson Hayden Wesneski Javier Assad

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Big Hype Prospects: Volpe, Wesneski, O’Hoppe, Harrison, Brujan

By Brad Johnson | February 20, 2023 at 1:33pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we continue our offseason tradition of focusing on players tangentially linked to news and rumors.

Five BHPs In The News

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

True to their word, the Yankees never got around to solving their left field opening with an external addition. Nor did they upgrade Josh Donaldson after the veteran turned in his worst-hitting performance since 2012. The club has opted to go with internal depth like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Also factoring into the calculus is the imminent arrival of Volpe.

The 21-year-old slugger has only 99 plate appearances of experience at Triple-A and posted a modest 91 wRC+ at the level. While minor league data isn’t comprehensive, there’s evidence Volpe was too patient with pitches inside the strike zone. A repeat at the level makes sense given the personnel already on hand in the Majors. It would require an incredible Spring Training for Volpe to crack the Opening Day lineup. In the interim, with Gleyber Torres participating in the World Baseball Classic, Volpe should have more opportunities for middle infield game reps.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

With Kyle Hendricks expected to begin the season on the injured list, the Cubs have a battle for the fifth rotation slot. The most intriguing entrant is Wesneski, a right-hander who showed a knack for avoiding hard contact in a brief 33-inning trial last season. Wesneski features a five-pitch repertoire including three distinct fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. While he doesn’t project to run rampant strikeout totals in the Majors, Wesneski is stingy about allowing hits and walks. It’s a Jameson Taillon-like profile, and it’s probably no accident the Cubs acquired both players in the last calendar year.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired at the previous trade deadline for formerly hyped prospect Brandon Marsh, O’Hoppe will compete with Max Stassi for a starting role on the thirsty Angels. Although the right-handed hitter has yet to play in Triple-A, the Angels gave him a vote of confidence in the form of 16 Major League plate appearances last fall. O’Hoppe took advantage of hitter-friendly conditions to torch Double-A pitching. His 2022 breakout included improved plate discipline without sacrificing aggression against pitches in the heart of the zone. This is a relatively rare adjustment. Should he seize the Opening Day job, keep an eye on his plate discipline metrics. If he retains his selective aggression, O’Hoppe could emerge as one of the top catchers in the league.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
(AA) 84 IP, 13.61 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 3.11 ERA

Including High-A, Harrison threw a total of 113 innings. He should approach a full complement of 30 starts this season – perhaps with a mix of longer and shorter outings to manage his workload. The Giants put together a deep pool of Major League starters. In addition to the presumed starting five of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Alex Wood, Jakob Junis and Anthony Desclafani await in the bullpen.

While Harrison finds himself behind a number of very qualified starters, the pool of viable minor leaguer replacements is relatively thin. This is also a group of veterans who (mostly) have familiarity with major injuries. This apparent depth could evaporate at a moment’s notice, offering a temporary opportunity for Harrison to audition. As of last look, command is Harrison’s greatest weakness. Most scouts think he’ll develop in this regard. If not, his stuff is sufficient to support him in short-burst starter or elite fireman roles.

Vidal Brujan, 25, 2B/OF, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 162 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB, .163/.228/.259

Although technically no longer a prospect, Brujan still fits a looser definition of an “unestablished, young player.” He’s also received plenty of hype over the years. Brujan doesn’t fit cleanly on this iteration of the Rays roster, leading MLBTR staffer Anthony Franco to consider him a trade candidate. The switch-hitter has struggled to make impactful contact at the top level, though he has posted an above-average batting line at every minor league level – aside from nine plate appearances at Low-A in 2016. At one point, prospect watchers secretly hoped Brujan would flip a power switch like similarly-built infielder Jose Ramirez. Now it’s looking likelier Brujan settles as a defense-first regular with a contact-forward hitting approach.

Three More

Thad Ward, WSH (26): Although I’ve yet to hear of the Nationals planning to use Ward as a starter this season, the absence of Stephen Strasburg creates a tempting opportunity. Ward has served as a starter throughout his minor league career and profiles as a potential rotation regular. The Nationals are in a state of internal evaluation and have little reason to withhold starts from their Rule 5 pick.

James Outman, LAD (25): After spending much of the offseason with a clear path to a starting role, Outman now finds himself locked behind David Peralta. As a fellow left-handed hitter, Outman faces an uphill battle for regular reps.

DL Hall, BAL (24): Hall is currently behind schedule due to lower back discomfort. The oft-injured southpaw already looked questionable to make the Opening Day rotation. This setback only increases the risk of a minor league assignment. While Hall undoubtedly could play as a Major League reliever, the club is still assessing his potential as a starter.

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Big Hype Prospects Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals Anthony Volpe DL Hall Features Hayden Wesneski James Outman Kyle Harrison Thad Ward Vidal Brujan

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Trade Candidate: Vidal Brujan

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2023 at 3:43pm CDT

A depth surplus and roster crunch is familiar territory for the Rays, who seemingly make a trade or two at the start of each offseason to reallocate spots to players they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. This winter saw former top infield prospect Xavier Edwards shipped alongside reliever JT Chargois to the Marlins for a pair of minor leaguers nowhere close to the majors.

Even with Edwards no longer in the picture, the Rays have plenty of infield talent. That could result in another trade, with a different one-time top minor leaguer also appearing to be on the roster bubble. Vidal Bruján played in 52 MLB games last season and has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past two years. He’s yet to establish himself as an everyday player, though, and it’s questionable whether the Rays are in a great position to give him that opportunity.

Bruján appeared at the back half of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2019-22. A switch-hitter with plus speed, he’s put up a solid .274/.355/.440 line and 70 stolen bases over 166 games at the Triple-A level. Bruján doesn’t have huge power, but he’s an advanced contact hitter and athletic enough to be a quality baserunner. He’s gone down on strikes in just 15.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances while walking at a quality 10.4% clip.

That upper minors production didn’t carry over in his first significant big league action. Over 162 plate appearances last season, he hit .163/.228/.259 with three homers and five steals in 10 attempts. Those numbers aren’t an entirely fair reflection of his performance, as Bruján’s .193 batting average on balls in play will certainly come up over a longer sample. He didn’t hit the ball hard at the MLB level but continued to make contact at an above-average clip.

Headed into his age-25 season, Bruján certainly still has promise. Yet he doesn’t have the clearest path to at-bats in Tampa Bay, at least to open the season. Primarily a middle infielder throughout his minor league tenure, he’s certainly not displacing Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco if those players are healthy. The Rays have given him some outfield work to take advantage of his athleticism. Bruján doesn’t have the kind of power one would expect from a primary corner outfielder. He’s not likely to be the caliber of center fielder Jose Siri or Josh Lowe are given his lack of high level experience at the outfield’s most demanding position.

There’s not a clear path to everyday playing time for Bruján anywhere at the MLB level right now. He still has one remaining option year, however, raising the possibility of him heading back to Triple-A Durham for an additional season.

Trading Bruján would represent a sell-low situation. He’d have value but wouldn’t fetch an astronomical return after a down rookie season. Keeping him in a utility capacity gives manager Kevin Cash a potential pinch-runner or defensive substitute later in games but isn’t likely to afford Bruján the at-bats to play his way into a more consistent role.

The latter course of action is also complicated by the Rays’ surplus of alternative bench possibilities. Assuming the club deploys 13 pitchers and position players alike, they’ll have four reserve spots available. One will go to the backup catcher. Luke Raley is out of options, meaning he’ll have to stay in the majors or be offered to other teams. Taylor Walls didn’t hit last season but is an excellent infielder, one whom the Rays trusted more regularly than Bruján when Franco and Brandon Lowe were injured in 2022. Walls can be optioned, but doing so would subtract likely the top defensive shortstop from the active roster.

It’s the opposite story for Jonathan Aranda, who comes with defensive concerns but mashed at a .318/.394/.521 clip in Durham to earn a brief MLB look. Aranda can be optioned back, though he clearly has nothing left to prove against minor league pitching. His lefty bat would also be a welcome addition to a Rays’ lineup that heavily skews right-handed, so it stands to reason the front office would prefer to have Aranda in the majors. Another top infield prospect, Curtis Mead, is almost certainly going to make his MLB debut in 2023 after hitting .305/.394/.548 over 56 games in Triple-A last season. He was added onto the 40-man roster this offseason and ranks as the game’s #36 prospect at Baseball America.

Juggling this kind of infield talent is nothing new for a front office that tends to prioritize high-contact middle infielders on draft day. It’s the kind of depth most other organizations aren’t able to stockpile, which makes even players towards the back of the Tampa Bay roster intriguing to other clubs. If the Rays feel Bruján is trending in that direction, they could open talks with other teams that have acute needs up the middle. The White Sox, A’s, Tigers, Pirates and Angels are among the speculative candidates for such a trade — particularly since non-competitive teams like Oakland, Detroit and Pittsburgh can afford to live with some early growing pains to take a chance on Bruján’s longer-term upside.

There weren’t any indications over the offseason the Rays were especially anxious to move Bruján. Perhaps an injury in Spring Training paves the way for him to assume a more obvious role in Tampa Bay than exists right now. If everyone’s healthy come Opening Day, though, he’d head into the season as an interesting potential trade chip if the Rays don’t flip him during Spring Training.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly suggested Bruján was out of options. MLBTR has confirmed the Rays were granted a fourth option year, with Bruján having one option season remaining. MLBTR regrets the error.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Vidal Brujan

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Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Vargas, Hall, Frelick, Wiemer

By Brad Johnson | February 13, 2023 at 3:45pm CDT

Rejoice! The offseason is officially behind us. Pitchers and catchers who are involved in the World Baseball Classic report today. The rest report on either 2/15 or 2/16. Fresh prospect news should start to trickle in soon. The WBC will give us additional opportunities to see prospects in competitive action. Not only do some top prospects participate in the contest, the outflow of players to international games means there are more opportunities for game reps in big league camps.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B/OF, STL (AA)
(AA) 536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

One of the most dynamic prospects in the league with a penchant for barreling the ball, Walker is in the process of converting to outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. As we covered recently, the Cardinals don’t exactly have an opening in the outfield either. Walker also doesn’t have a spot on the 40-man roster yet, further complicating his path to the Majors. While fans are undoubtedly clamoring to see him early this season, a successful stint at Triple-A will almost certainly be required to force the issue.

If there’s any caveat about Walker, and this is nitpicking, it’s an elevated ground ball rate. Since he has special power, Walker could very well tap into an elite HR/FB rate like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to overcome a few extra bouncers. He’s expected to post above average BABIPs on account of the angle and quality of his contact.

Miguel Vargas, 23, 2B/3B, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Another third baseman by trade set to shift positions, the Dodgers have announced Vargas will man the keystone. The less fleet-footed Max Muncy will play third base. This is a conversion that usually works out for reasonably athletic young players like Vargas. The athletic requirements for the two positions are similar. Third basemen generally need more arm strength. Second basemen should have sharper footwork. Vargas projects as a roughly league average third baseman, and that likely holds true at second base too.

An evaluator I consulted doesn’t believe Vargas is a future star, though he does appear to be a high-probability core performer. While they’re not particularly comparable, these are the same sorts of comments I received about Jake Cronenworth prior to his debut in San Diego. There are some feel-based aspects to Vargas’ game that could allow him to exceed his physical limitations.

DL Hall, 24, SP, BAL (MLB)
(AAA) 76.2 IP, 14.67 K/9, 5.75 BB/9, 4.70 ERA

Hall posted the largest workload of his professional career last season. He tossed 98 innings in total across four levels including a brief debut in the Orioles bullpen. He’ll be offered an opportunity to compete for one of two open rotation slots in Baltimore. Hall’s stuff is filthy, and he works deep counts seeking strikeouts. He’s also prone to walks. His errant command shouldn’t be viewed as a permanent characteristic just yet. Like many pitching prospects, Hall has struggled with injuries throughout his ascent. Further setbacks could force a bullpen role – as we’ve seen happen with A.J. Puk. Conversely, a healthy stint might be the ticket for unlocking just enough command to carry his superb stuff as a short-burst starter. Notably, Hall’s stuff did not play up out of the bullpen.

Sal Frelick, 22, OF, MIL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 562 PA, 11 HR, 24 SB, .331/.403/.480

The Brewers could graduate a fresh outfield of the future this season. Roster realities, an uphill battle in the NL Central, and pricey left fielder Christian Yelich will complicate the juggling act ahead for General Manager Matt Arnold. None of Frelick, Joey Wiemer, or Jackson Chourio are yet on the 40-man roster.

Frelick is a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average discipline, speed, and feel for quality contact. His power rates as below average, though it remains possible he’ll make adjustments to unlock decent pop. Presently, there are doubts Frelick will stick in center field. He’s sufficiently athletic but has iffy instincts. Some players overcome this shortcoming. Others do not. His path forward as a left fielder is more fraught – both due to the presence of Yelich and his lack of impactful power.

Joey Wiemer, 24, OF, MIL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 548 PA, 21 HR, 31 SB, .256/.336/.465

Wiemer stands out on a field. Not only is he a large man, he can fly around the diamond. The profile looks like a big-man version of Tyler O’Neill. He’s expected to be the sort of volatile player who will at times carry a team and at others slog through deep slumps. Presently, his game power is inconsistent. He appeared to make an adjustment late last season to a more balanced contact profile. That could also be a small sample artifact. Things to keep an eye upon in Triple-A and when he debuts include his line drive rate, pulled contact, and infield fly rate.

Three More

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): It’s not yet confirmed if Chourio received an invitation to big league Spring Training. On the shortlist for number one prospect in baseball, I don’t believe I’ve seen this level of hype since the days of Mike Trout. He’s still learning center field where he’s physically capable but inexperienced. His bat is expected to play at any position. Most encouragingly, he made a number of key in-season adjustments last year – a trait which bodes well for his further development.

JJ Bleday, OAK (25): Bleday, whose least appealing attributes were covered last week, was recently acquired by the Athletics. Oakland is less inclined to feign competitiveness than Miami, meaning Bleday should have a fair chance for regular reps. However, the A’s have quite a few outfielders at present including Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, Seth Brown, Esteury Ruiz, Cristian Pache, and Conner Capel among others. Bleday might need to await the nearly inevitable trades of Laureano and Brown.

Ezequiel Tovar, COL (21): Tovar recently spoke to the media about his pursuit of an Opening Day role with the Rockies. Per his comments, he might parlay a strong Spring Training into an active roster spot. Given his youthful age, Colorado could be tempted to seize any excuse to manipulate his service time. A late April debut would secure control over his age 27 season. Tovar is not yet a finished product as a hitter, though his defense is considered excellent.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals

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Who’s Blocking Jordan Walker?

By Darragh McDonald | February 12, 2023 at 11:01pm CDT

The Cardinals selected Jordan Walker with the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft. Since then, he’s been charging hard towards the majors, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists.

In 2021, he made his professional debut, splitting his time between Class-A and High-A. In 82 games between those two levels, he hit 14 home runs and stole 14 bases, leading to an excellent .317/.388/.548 batting line and a 151 wRC+. He moved up to Double-A for 2022 and kept it rolling, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 22 bases in 119 games. His .306/.388/.510 batting line led to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than average. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit .286/.367/.558 over 21 games there.

Now Walker is considered one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each have him at #4, Keith Law of The Athletic at #5, FanGraphs at #8 and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN at #14. Since Walker has little left to prove at Double-A, he’ll likely be in Triple-A to start 2023, potentially jumping to the majors at any point.

Walker has primarily been a third baseman in his career thus far, as that was the only position he played in 2021. However, an Nolan Arenado-shaped obstacle is stopping him from seeing much time at the hot corner in the big leagues, so the club has started giving Walker some outfield reps. Walker made 68 starts at third in Double-A last year but also 30 in the outfield (24 of those in right). In the fall league, all 21 of his starts were on the grass, with twelve in right field. Prospect evaluators have suggested he is adjusting well to the move, with his strong arm and athleticism likely to help him serve as an above-average defender in the outfield.

As long as Arenado is healthy, Walker will be looking to crack the Cardinals as an outfielder. As of right now, the club’s likely starters out there would be Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar, with Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Moisés Gómez also on the 40-man roster.

O’Neill, 28 in June, is coming off a frustrating season but was tremendous the year before. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. His outfield defense was graded well by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average, with all that leading to 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve. Unfortunately, he made multiple trips to the injured list last year, due to a shoulder impingement and hamstring strain. He only got into 96 games and had diminished results when playing, hitting .228/.308/.392 for a wRC+ of 101.

It’s a somewhat similar trajectory for the 24-year-old Carlson. He hit 18 home runs in 2021 and batted .266/.343/.437 for a wRC+ of 113, but slipped to eight homers and a .236/.316/.380 line last year for a wRC+ of 100. He also went to the IL a couple of times, though he still played 128 games on the year. However, he got strong grades for his work in center field, with 6 DRS, 3 OAA and 1.8 UZR last year in just 530 innings. He seems to be the favorite to take over up the middle with Harrison Bader now a Yankee, though O’Neill and Nootbaar can both also play there.

Nootbaar, 25, hasn’t really had a full season as a big leaguer yet, as he was optioned to the minors three times last year. However, he seemed to take off after his final recall in mid-July. From that point on, he walked in an excellent 16.7% of his trips to the plate, just barely trailing his 17.1% strikeout rate. He hit 11 home runs in that stretch and slashed .240/.367/.490 as part of the second half surge.

Yepez, 25 next week, is more of a corner infielder who can play one of the outfield corners from time to time. His work on the grass hasn’t been graded well and he likely won’t be an everyday option. However, his potent bat will be in the mix for time as the designated hitter, which could still have an impact on Walker’s path to the bigs. Yepez hit 12 home runs in a 76-game debut last year, leading to a batting line of .253/.296/.447 and a wRC+ of 109. Burleson, 24, is somewhat similar, as his bat is considered a stronger part of his game than his defense. He didn’t hit much in his 16-game debut last year but his Triple-A batting line was .331/.372/.532 thanks to launching 20 homers. Gómez, 24, has yet to make his MLB debut but got himself a spot on the 40-man after a strong 2022. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .294/.371/.624 for a wRC+ of 149.

Out of all of these players, the only one to have qualified for arbitration so far is O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he’s not slated to reach free agency until after 2024. The others still have many years of affordable control. Once Walker is deemed ready for a move to the big leagues, the outfield could start to get crowded in St. Louis. He seems to be headed towards right field as his predominant position, where he could line up with Carlson in center and O’Neill in left most of the time. That would bump Nootbaar into a fourth outfielder/designated hitter role, which he might be overqualified for if his second half results last year are anywhere close to legit. Perhaps the Cards would think about trading O’Neill next winter, when he has hopefully had a bounceback season in 2023 and will be just one year removed from free agency. That would free up left field for Nootbaar or one of the other young guys.

All of this is contingent on everyone being healthy, of course, as even a single injury could unclog the situation in a hurry. But there’s a lot of talent here for the Cards, as their player development pipeline seems to churn out quality big leaguers at an incredible rate. However, even top prospects don’t always find immediate success in the big leagues. Walker has yet to even reach Triple-A, so some more patience might be required, though it feels fairly inevitable that the Cards will be able to work from an outfield surplus again at some point, even though they just traded Bader at last year’s deadline.

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Which Starters Should The Cardinals Extend?

By Nick Deeds | February 12, 2023 at 3:04pm CDT

The mass exodus facing the Cardinals rotation at the end of the 2023 season is well-documented at this point. Longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is set to follow in the footsteps of his longtime battery-mate Yadier Molina and retire following the end of the 2023 season, while each of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are set to depart the club as free agents. If none of that group is extended, right-hander Dakota Hudson will be the only pitcher to make more than ten starts with the Cardinals in 2022 and remain with the club in 2024, though lefty Steven Matz is also under contract through the 2025 season and youngster Andre Pallante impressed in ten starts last season.

The 2023-2024 free agent class figures to be exceptional deep in quality rotation options, even for clubs who won’t be part of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Still, it seems reasonable to expect extensions, such as the one Yu Darvish signed with the Padres last week, to continue thinning the herd throughout Spring Training and into the regular season. For a Cardinals club that’s attempting to make the most of the remaining prime years for superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, going into the offseason with three or more slots in the rotation to fill would put an enormous amount of pressure on the front office. As such, it’s no wonder that the organization is reportedly planning to have extension conversations with at least two of their starting pitchers this spring.

The clearest choice for the Cardinals to pursue an extension with would be Mikolas, who reportedly is open to extending with the club this spring. Even entering his age-34 season, there’s every reason to expect Mikolas to be durable going forward; though he missed the entirety of the 2020 season and much of the 2021 season due to surgery, since joining the Cardinals ahead of the 2018 season he has pitched more than 180 innings in each of his three seasons unaffected by that surgery, including inning counts over 200 innings in 2018 and 2022. On top of that, Mikolas has proven to be an effective mid-rotation option whenever he is on the mound, with a 3.46 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.84 FIP in 631 2/3 innings as a member of the Cardinals.

Furthermore, despite his age and workhorse tendencies, the mileage on his arm is still fairly low: Mikolas has just 1,561 professional innings under his belt between the majors, minors, and his time overseas. That’s more than a thousand innings less than similarly aged hurlers such as Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw, and just a tad under the 1,746 1/3 professional innings Aaron Nola has under his belt headed into his age-30 season. Given Mikolas’s combination of effectiveness, durability, low mileage on his arm, and comfort with the club (he already extended with the team once, ahead of the 2019 season), it’s no wonder that Mikolas appears to be one of the starters the Cardinals are seeking to continue their partnership with.

What of the other options, though? Surely, if Wainwright changes his mind and decides to continue pitching in 2024, the lifelong Cardinal would be continuing his career in St. Louis. All signs point to him hanging them up this fall after the conclusion of his age-41 season, however, leaving two pending free agents in the Cardinals rotation for them to consider extending: Flaherty and Montgomery. Flaherty is the younger of the two, set to pitch in 2023 at age 27 while Montgomery celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this offseason. Both players have dealt with injury woes in their careers, though Flaherty’s are more recent, having spanned the 2020-2022 seasons. Montgomery’s struggles from 2018-2020, by contrast, have since been followed up by a pair of quality, healthy seasons.

Montgomery has also shown more consistency throughout his career; when healthy, he has reliably been good for around 150 innings of 10-15% better than league average baseball. Flaherty, on the other hand, has two exceptional seasons under his belt in 2018 and 2019 where he combined for a 3.01 ERA, 35% better than league average, while finishing top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and Cy Young award voting in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, however, he has just 176 career innings at the major league level under his belt, and the results of those innings leave much to be desired: a 4.19 ERA and more than a strikeout less per nine innings than his peak years.

One can rightfully argue that Flaherty, so long as he can get healthy, projects to be better than Montgomery going forward. Montgomery’s fastball velocity in 2022 clocked in just below that of Flaherty despite the fact that Montgomery was enjoying a career high while Flaherty’s velocity was at an all-time low. Flaherty’s camp will surely make that argument, and with such a considerable gap between Flaherty’s potential and his current results, it’s fair to wonder how feasible it is for the two sides to come together on an extension they both find mutually agreeable, particularly when a big season from Flaherty in 2023 could cement him among the top starters on next offseason’s free agent market. Flaherty seems, perhaps, particularly unlikely to take much of a discount given he forced St. Louis to renew his contract ahead of both the 2019 and 2020 seasons rather than agree to a pre-arbitration salary, calling it a matter of “principle.”

The Cardinals have no such contentious history of negotiations with Montgomery, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season in a deal that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Montgomery pitched extremely well down the stretch for St. Louis last season, racking up 63 2/3 innings that were good for a 3.11 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.08 FIP. While Montgomery’s potential is far from that of Flaherty, that dominant stretch to end the 2022 season could indicate that there is still upside yet to be tapped into for the left-hander. Furthermore, despite not being a member of the organization for very long, that hasn’t stopped this Cardinals front office in the past. After all, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is the one who signed Goldschmidt to an extension prior to the 2019 season before the slugger had ever played a regular season game in a Cardinals uniform.

Financially speaking, the Cardinals have plenty of room to maneuver under the luxury tax going forward. The club’s estimated luxury tax payroll for 2024 according to Roster Resource is just over $106MM, down from $199MM in 2023. Granted, that 2024 figure does not include arbitration salaries for 2024. In 2023, arbitration salaries are adding $36.5MM to the luxury tax ledger in St. Louis- even if that figure repeats, the club would have nearly $60MM to play with before reaching their 2023 payroll level, and over $90MM before reaching the first luxury tax threshold. That should leave them Mozeliak’s front office plenty of room to add or extend starters ahead of the 2024 season.

For players between five and six years of service time, as Flaherty and Montgomery both are, three recent extensions have taken place: the seven-year, $131MM deal Jose Berrios signed with the Blue Jays last offseason, the five-year, $100MM deal Joe Musgrove signed with the Padres last summer, and the five-year, $85MM deal Lance McCullers Jr. signed with the Astros ahead of the 2021 season. Berrios stands as something of a clear outlier among the other two, while Joe Musgrove has been a more effective starter than Montgomery and a more consistent starter than Flaherty. As such, McCullers seems to be the most appropriate comp for our purposes.

McCullers and Montgomery both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy, and though McCullers was just about to begin his age-27 season when he signed his extension, making him three years younger than Montgomery is now, he was coming off far more recent injury troubles than Montgomery was while having never pitched even 130 innings in a season of his career. The $85MM figure also compares reasonably to the mid-rotation market this past offseason, which each of Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker securing between $63MM and $72MM and Montgomery having an argument as a safer bet than any of them.

Flaherty, on the other hand, seems less likely to find that sort of deal appropriate. Following an offseason that saw the likes of Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom secure well over $100MM despite injury concerns, it’s reasonable to think that Flaherty could do the same with relative ease should he have a bounceback year in 2023, particularly given his youth. Additionally, the market was rather kind to even oft-injured bounceback types such as Andrew Heaney this offseason. Even if Flaherty struggles again in 2023, he could search for a two-year deal with an opt-out as Heaney did to rebuild his value and hit the market a second time before his age-30 season.

Given all of this, it seems unlikely he would settle for much less than the $100MM Musgrove received, and it seems even more unlikely the Cardinals would make such a risky investment at this point, even with their significant concerns about the future of their rotation. Taken together, it seems that if the Cardinals are going to look to lock up some of the members of their rotation before season’s end, they’d be better off looking toward Mikolas and Montgomery than Flaherty, even despite all the tantalizing talent he brings to the table.

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Poll: Can The Rockies Play .500 This Year?

By Darragh McDonald | February 9, 2023 at 10:32pm CDT

The Rockies nabbed a Wild Card spot in two straight years, getting into the postseason in 2017 and 2018. However, the past four years have been a struggle. They slipped to 71-91 in 2019, followed that up with a 26-34 showing in the shortened 2020 season and then won 74 and 68 games in the past two years.

Despite that rough slide, owner Dick Monfort is maintaining external optimism. “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball,” he recently said.

Suddenly finding an extra 10-15 wins would likely have to come from internal improvements, as the roster hasn’t changed much relative to last year. Their most notable free agent departures included Carlos Estévez, José Iglesias, Chad Kuhl and Alex Colomé. One other name on that list was José Ureña, though he was eventually re-signed and will be back with the club this year. Garrett Hampson also departed the roster when he was non-tendered, as did Chad Smith and Connor Joe via small trades.

The Rockies have also made a few additions to the roster, of course, but mostly younger players and a few relievers. Infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones, who has 28 games of MLB experience, was acquired from the Guardians. Connor Seabold and his six career starts were acquired for cash considerations or a player to be named later after he was designated for assignment by the Red Sox. The bullpen got a few new faces when Brent Suter and Nick Mears were claimed off waivers and free agent Pierce Johnson was signed to a one-year deal.

Those changes will all have impacts, though none jump out as franchise-altering moves like the Kris Bryant signing from a year ago. A healthy Bryant is probably the club’s best chance at improving their fortunes, as he was only able to play 42 games last year. He mashed when on the field, hitting .306/.376/.475 for a wRC+ of 125, and the Rockies would surely love to have that kind of production over a larger sample.

The outfield mix will have holdovers in Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza, Randal Grichuk but could also get a boost if Jones breaks out. He came up as a third base prospect but moved to the outfield since Cleveland had José Ramírez at the hot corner. The Rockies will likely keep him on the grass since they have Ryan McMahon at third. Jones has hit very well in the minors despite a high strikeout rate. In 655 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s been punched out at a 28.4% rate but drawn walks at a 13.7% clip, hit 22 home runs and stole 14 bases. His .252/.361/.443 slash line at that level amounts to a 117 wRC+. He didn’t quite reach that level of production in his first taste of the majors, but it was a very brief debut. Sean Bouchard could also be a factor here, as he hit .300/.404/.635 for a 150 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He kept it going in a 27-game MLB debut by hitting .297/.454/.500 for a wRC+ of 158, though he won’t sustain a 21.6% walk rate or .404 batting average on balls in play.

On the infield, McMahon, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers will still be around. The biggest change relative to last year will be that Iglesias has departed and prospect Ezequiel Tovar has seemingly been given the job. It’s an aggressive move given his youth and inexperience. He began last year in Double-A and crushed it, hitting .318/.386/.545 for a wRC+ of 153 over 66 games. A hip/groin injury kept him out of action for all of July and August, but the club promoted him to Triple-A when he was healthy in September. After just five games there, he got promoted to the big leagues for nine games as the season was winding down. Tovar is considered one of the top prospects in the league but he’s just 21 years old and has only 14 games played above the Double-A level.

Another X-factor on the infield could be Michael Toglia, who is primarily a first baseman though he’s also played a bit of right field. With Cron still under contract for one more year, he’s not being relied upon in the same way as Tovar, but he could force his way into more playing time or fill in for an injury. His MLB debut last year didn’t go well, but he hit 30 home runs in 114 minor league games for a batting line of .249/.341/.510 and a wRC+ of 124. Elehuris Montero could also be in play here, as the corner infielder hit .310/.392/.541 in Triple-A last year, though he also struggled in his first taste of the majors.

At the catcher position, Elias Díaz will be looking for a bounceback after his 18 home runs in 2021 were cut in half to nine last year. He also walked less and struck out more, leading to a .228/.281/.368 batting line and 67 wRC+, a drop from 91 the year before. His defense was also graded far worse, leading to a wide swing from posting 1.6 fWAR two years ago but -1.4 last year.

In the rotation, Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland will be back at the front, but it gets murky after that. Antonio Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, meaning he could return soon, but that remains to be seen. Ureña seems to have laid claim to another spot, though the last time he posted an ERA under 5.00 was 2018. Austin Gomber could be in the mix, though he posted a 5.56 ERA last year. Seabold has some good Triple-A results but has struggled in the majors thus far and will have to get acclimated to the Coors Field experience. Other options on the 40-man include Peter Lambert, Ryan Feltner, Ryan Rolison and Noah Davis.

In the bullpen, the Rockies will be without Estévez, who has been a quietly effective reliever of late. His triple-digit fastball helped him post a 3.94 ERA over the past two seasons, not too shabby for a guy who takes the mound at altitude half the time. Daniel Bard will still be present in the closer’s role, but the club will try to replace Estévez with Johnson, Suter, Mears and Dinelson Lamet, whom they grabbed off waivers in August of last year.

A few things will need to go right for the Rockies to make a huge jump in the win column. A healthy and productive season from Bryant would be great, as would a return to form from Díaz and a healthy Senzatela. Younger players like Tovar, Jones, Toglia, Montero and Bouchard taking steps forward would be a huge help. But the pitching staff has big question marks and there’s also the matter of what other clubs have done. The Padres have added Xander Bogaerts and various other players in order to build off their strong 2022. The Giants didn’t make a huge addition but added several strong players such as Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. The Dodgers have been fairly quiet but are still loaded with talent and coming off a 111-win season. The Diamondbacks have tons of exciting young prospects and a big surge seems possible. 2023 will have a more balanced schedule, meaning the Rockies will play outside their division more often, but most American League teams are in good shape, as are the clubs in the NL East. The NL Central is seen by many as weaker, but the Cubs and Pirates have both made efforts to be better than they were in 2022.

What do you think? Is Monfort right? Can this club play .500 ball? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Are The Rockies A .500 Team?
Not even close. 54.50% (3,249 votes)
I'd put them a bit below. 35.58% (2,121 votes)
I think they're right on the line. 7.62% (454 votes)
Probably a bit better. 1.48% (88 votes)
Way better. 0.82% (49 votes)
Total Votes: 5,961
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The Nationals’ Breakout Late-Career Rookie

By Anthony Franco | February 9, 2023 at 9:13pm CDT

Very little went right for the Nationals in 2022. They limped to an MLB-worst 55-107 record but lost out on the first overall pick in the inaugural draft lottery. Their year was primarily defined by ownership uncertainty and the continuation of a rebuild they’d kicked off at the 2021 trade deadline — culminating in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster in recent memory.

That sell-off opened a spot on their 40-man roster. They plugged it by selecting the contract of minor league veteran first baseman Joey Meneses. While it was surely a life-changing moment for a 30-year-old who had played professionally for 12 seasons before receiving his big league call, that transaction didn’t generate much attention outside the nation’s capital. In all likelihood, the Nats’ front office wasn’t convinced Meneses would even hold that roster spot through the offseason.

Meneses instead seized his first MLB opportunity in a way no one would’ve anticipated. He popped 13 home runs and 14 doubles through his first 56 games, compiling a .324/.367/.563 line across 240 plate appearances. That offensive production was 56 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That tied for 12th among qualified hitters in that span, with Meneses placed right alongside a number of All-Stars and Silver Slugger winners.

It’s not entirely fair to say that production came out of nowhere. Meneses had been having a strong season for Triple-A Rochester, where he hit .286/.341/.489 with 20 longballs through 96 games. The right-handed hitter has typically performed well against minor league arms. That was often against younger competition, however. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility, that kept him from getting an MLB chance until last summer. Meneses holding his own offensively at the MLB level wouldn’t have been surprising, but the extent of his production was.

Meneses will certainly need more than two great months to demonstrate he’s capable of sustaining middle-of-the-order production over the long haul. His rookie year isn’t too dissimilar from the .342/.389/.613 line Frank Schwindel posted over 56 games as a 29-year-old rookie for the Cubs in 2021. Schwindel stumbled to a .229/.277/.358 mark in 75 games in year two and is headed to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the upcoming season. Maintaining consistency over multiple years at the major league level is a challenge.

That said, Meneses couldn’t have drawn up a much better start. In addition to his excellent production, he demonstrated some impressive underlying marks. Meneses made contact on an above-average 78.9% of his swings, getting the bat on the ball against pitches both within and outside the strike zone. His plate discipline metrics were roughly average.

Most notably, he made consistent quality contact. Meneses hit the ball hard (an exit velocity above 95 MPH) on 47% of his batted balls. That ranked 42nd among 334 hitters with 150+ batted balls, per Statcast. He hit plenty of line drives and took the ball to all fields with regularity. Meneses isn’t likely to sustain a .371 batting average on balls in play over a full season, but his contact profile suggests that probably won’t regress all the way to the .290 league mark either.

The rebuilding Nationals are in position to give Meneses a chance to cement himself as a regular. Washington took a buy-low flier on Dom Smith to play first base this offseason, though the designated hitter role is still up for grabs. Jeimer Candelario could factor in there but seems likely to play regularly at third base after Carter Kieboom missed the entire 2022 season due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Smith and Candelario themselves are far from sure things after struggling last year.

Meneses isn’t going to continue at last season’s level, but there’s room for his production to regress while remaining better than average. If he can mostly back up his early promise, he’d potentially be a useful trade chip for the Washington club. As a soon to be 31-year-old first baseman, he’s not going to be a long-term core piece coming out of the rebuild.

Another strong first half would make him an intriguing deadline target for a more immediate contender looking for offensive help. Even if he establishes himself as a permanent big leaguer, Meneses won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 season. That affordability would be of obvious appeal to both low-budget franchises and bigger spenders that are approaching or into luxury tax territory.

Whether he can play his way into legitimate trade candidacy, Meneses makes for one of the better stories on the Washington roster. The Nats aren’t likely to win many games during the upcoming season, with the organization’s greater emphasis on the performance of individual players. Younger former top prospects like CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz are the players the front office and fanbase will be most focused on. There’s room on the margins for role players to perform well enough to net the club some future value in trade as well. Bounceback candidates like Smith, Candelario and Corey Dickerson fit a more traditional mold, though Meneses could be more interesting than any of those established veterans if he can build off a revelatory rookie showing.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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The Cubs’ Third Base Options

By Anthony Franco | February 9, 2023 at 4:22pm CDT

The Cubs have made a number of additions to their lineup, none more impactful than the signing of Dansby Swanson at shortstop. That pushed Nico Hoerner over to second base. Chicago also brought in Cody Bellinger to play center field, signed Tucker Barnhart to share time with Yan Gomes at catcher in place of Willson Contreras, and added Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer for the first base/designated hitter mix.

It was a dramatic overhaul, with the corner outfield tandem of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki the only players whose positions haven’t seemed up in the air at any point. The other position the front office left untouched, third base, looks as if it’ll come down to a battle between a handful of internal options with the free agent market all but picked through. There are two players who have the clearest path to reps at the hot corner in the early going.

Patrick Wisdom

Wisdom has been the primary third baseman on Chicago’s north side for the last two seasons. He’s tallied just under 700 plate appearances at the position since the start of 2021, handily topping second-place Matt Duffy (204 PAs in 2021). The only other player with even 100+ trips to the dish as a third baseman, David Bote, lost his spot on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason.

Signed to a minor league deal over the 2020-21 offseason (following a cup of coffee with the MLB club the year before), Wisdom has combined for 53 home runs and 41 doubles in 239 games over the last two years. He carries a .465 slugging percentage and .248 isolated power mark over 909 plate appearances, continually making an impact from a power perspective. The right-handed hitter has paired that with significant on-base concerns, however. He’s hit just .217 while reaching base at a below-average .301 rate. That’s mostly due to massive swing-and-miss in his game, as he’s gone down on strikes in 37% of his plate appearances. That’s the highest rate in the majors for any player with as much playing time, narrowly topping Joey Gallo’s 36.6% clip.

Wisdom’s power has been sufficient to manage a slightly above-average slash line in spite of the contact issues. That’s fine production, particularly when paired with the above-average defensive grades he managed in 2021. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average estimated he was well below average with the glove last season, however, leading both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to value his 2022 campaign around one win above replacement.

The 31-year-old has proven he deserves a spot on an MLB roster and the Cubs have made out exceptionally well on their no-risk signing two years ago. Yet the on-base and defensive concerns suggest Wisdom might be better suited as a role-playing power bat who can rotate through all four corner positions off the bench than as an everyday third baseman. He’s been far better against lefties (.238/.329/.533) than against righties (.209/.290/.438) over the past two seasons.

Christopher Morel

If the Cubs were to scale back Wisdom’s playing time, Morel would seem to be the primary beneficiary. The 23-year-old made his major league debut last season and generally impressed, albeit with some of the same question marks facing Wisdom. Morel connected on 16 home runs, 19 doubles and four triples in just 435 trips to the plate. He posted an overall .235/.306/.433 line through his first 113 big league contests. That slightly topped Wisdom’s .207/.298/.426 showing from last season.

That said, Morel also struggled significantly to make contact. He struck out in 32.2% of his plate appearances. Perhaps more alarming was that he swung and missed at 18.1% of the pitches he saw. That was the sixth-highest rate in MLB (minimum 400 PAs), and those concerns became more pronounced down the stretch. Morel carried an impressive .266/.338/.477 line into the All-Star Break despite a 30.7% strikeout rate. In the second half, his strikeout percentage jumped to 34.2% and he limped to a .194/.269/.376 finish.

At age 23, Morel is certainly capable of taking a step forward as he gains experience against big league pitching. He’s long flashed promising power but posted higher than average strikeout totals throughout his time in the minors. Concerns about his bat-to-ball skills kept him from emerging as a top-tier prospect prior to his debut despite evaluators’ praise for his power potential, athleticism and arm strength. Morel’s an interesting player, but one whose approach could make him a volatile offensive performer. He had reverse platoon splits in 2022, hitting .190/.297/.300 against left-handers against a .251/.313/.470 mark versus righties. That’s too small a sample from which to glean meaningful conclusions, though Wisdom’s more traditional splits could point towards him getting a few more reps against left-handed arms than Morel will.

It’s a similar story on the other side of the ball. Morel played mostly infield in the minor leagues, with third base his primary position. The Cubs bounced him around the diamond at the MLB level but deployed him most often in center field, hoping his speed and arm strength would translate. DRS and Statcast agreed he was a below-average center fielder in spite of his athleticism, as his inexperience at the position was evident. He also drew lackluster marks in limited action on the left side of the infield, though the sample in that case was exceedingly small.

Other Options

While Wisdom and Morel seem the two likeliest candidates to battle for playing time, the Cubs have a few other infield options on the 40-man roster. Miles Mastrobuoni, 27, was acquired from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He has only eight MLB games under his belt but hit .300/.377/.469 with 16 homers and 23 stolen bases in 573 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham last year. He’s primarily been a second baseman in the minors but has experience everywhere on the diamond aside from first base and catcher. His left-handed bat would pair well with the righty-hitting Wisdom and Morel if skipper David Ross wanted to play matchups. Mastrobuoni mashed at a .315/.396/.497 clip while holding the platoon advantage in 2022.

Nick Madrigal was displaced by Hoerner’s move to second base. He had a dismal 2022 season, hitting just .249/.305/.282 in 59 games while thrice landing on the injured list thanks to a back strain and strains of both groins. Madrigal had started the previous season with a solid .305/.349/.425 showing for the White Sox before suffering a season-ending hamstring tear. He’s only ever played up the middle dating back to his time at Oregon State — primarily at the keystone — but third base might be the clearest path to getting his bat in the lineup if the front office is still intrigued by his elite bat-to-ball ability.

His 5’8″, 175-pound frame isn’t the build of a traditional third baseman and that’s been manifested in his below-average arm strength. Perhaps that’s untenable at third base, though the Cubs could at least consider getting him some work at the hot corner to expand his defensive flexibility. It’s also at least worth contemplating whether Hoerner could kick to third base if Madrigal earns everyday playing time but isn’t capable of manning the left side of the infield.

The Cubs also picked up Zach McKinstry from the Dodgers in last summer’s Chris Martin trade. The 27-year-old has just a .208/.269/.384 line in 121 big league games over the last three years. He got 171 trips to the plate for the Cubs down the stretch, hitting .206/.272/.361. McKinstry has the ability to play second, third and both corner outfield spots and is a .323/.401/.550 hitter in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He’s out of minor league option years and has to stick on the active roster or be taken off the 40-man entirely. Given his lack of big league track record, he could find himself on the bubble — particularly if the Cubs want to give Mastrobuoni a lengthier look instead.

There are a handful of players behind this group on the depth chart who’ll be in camp as non-roster invitees. Bote, Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young all remain in the organization after clearing waivers in November. Sergio Alcántara signed a minor league deal this offseason, while former second-round pick Chase Strumpf got an MLB invite after hitting .234/.379/.461 with Double-A Tennessee.

———————-

While there are a few candidates who could play their way into consideration, it’d appear the third base job will be a battle between Wisdom and Morel to open the year. Both have minor league options remaining. The former has a more established big league track record, while the latter probably has greater upside but might also be more likely to post untenable numbers on both sides of the ball. They’re broadly similar as right-handed power bats with OBP concerns, though Morel has a little more defensive versatility if he’s relegated to a utility role.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Christopher Morel David Bote Esteban Quiroz Jared Young Miles Mastrobuoni Nick Madrigal Patrick Wisdom Zach McKinstry

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