Bryce Elder Has Been Bailing Out The Braves’ Rotation
In the umpteenth example of “you can never have enough pitching,” the Braves have been through a whirlwind of rotation concerns over the last three months. Heading into Spring Training, Atlanta seemingly had one of the better top four (Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Kyle Wright) alignments in the sport, with a plethora of interesting arms battling for the fifth starter’s role. Former rotation stalwart Ian Anderson was trying to bounce back from a rough 2022 season, Michael Soroka was continuing his comeback from a pair of Achilles tears, and Bryce Elder was looking to build on a quality 2022 rookie season.
As it turned out, the Braves ended up going with none of these fifth starter options, as rookies Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster ended up being the top candidates. Anderson and Elder both struggled in Spring Training and the Braves opted to take it a bit slower with Soroka’s recovery, opening the door for Shuster and Dodd.
However, injuries have shaken things up considerably since Opening Day. Wright began the season on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder soreness, but after returning and making five starts, Wright was again sidelined with shoulder issues and now won’t be available until the first week of July (at the earliest) due to his placement on the 60-day IL. Fried has also made only five starts due to an early-season hamstring strain and now his current IL stint due to a forearm strain, and is also tentatively expected to be out of action until early July. Further down the depth chart, Anderson will miss the entire 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, while Kolby Allard has yet to pitch at all due to a Grade 2 oblique strain suffered in Spring Training.
Between these injury absences and the fact that Shuster and Dodd haven’t pitched well, the Braves suddenly went from having a borderline surplus of pitching depth to a possible shortage. This puts even more pressure on the remaining arms, and Strider is looking like a Cy Young Award candidate while the veteran Morton has been his typically solid self. However, the surprise of the group has been Elder, as through 10 starts and 58 1/3 innings in 2023, Elder’s minuscule 2.01 ERA leads the National League.
It isn’t like Elder has exactly come out of nowhere, as it wasn’t much beyond a year ago that Elder made his MLB debut in more or less in this same role as an early-season injury fill-in. Between those starts, other spot duty, and then a larger role later in the year as a replacement for Anderson and Jake Odorizzi, Elder ended up posting a 3.17 ERA over 54 innings in 2022.
Of the four players taken by Atlanta in the pandemic-shortened five-round 2020 draft, three (Elder, Strider, Shuster) have remarkably already reached the big leagues. Elder was the club’s fifth round pick, and his first pro season saw him go from high-A to Triple-A ball in 2021. Due to his quick path to the majors, Elder still has only 248 2/3 minor league frames under his belt, and he has a 3.55 ERA in the minors due in large part to ground-ball rates that have regularly topped 55%.
That has been Elder’s same recipe in the majors, as he has a 56.5% grounder rate in 2023. A .296 BABIP doesn’t indicate any real amount of batted-ball luck, though Elder has been fortunate that his grounder-heavy arsenal hasn’t been hampered by the below-average defensive marks that Atlanta’s infield regulars have posted over two months of the season.
Elder is neither a hard thrower (89.8mph fastball) or a big strikeout pitcher, with a modest 21.1% strikeout rate over his brief MLB career. Without many strikeouts and a lot of hard contact allowed, Elder’s ability to keep the ball on the ground has been all the more critical, as batters’ hard contact hasn’t translated into much damage. His 6.8% walk rate this season is solidly above average, and a nice improvement from his mediocre 10.1BB% in 2022.
The walk rate is a rare flash of red on an overall uninspiring Statcast card for Elder, which probably indicates that some regression is inevitable. His .295 wOBA is sigifnicantly under his .329 xwOBA, and such fielding-independent metrics as xFIP (3.58) and SIERA (3.77) both project his ERA to be well over his 2.01 mark. Still, an ERA in the 3.58-3.77 range is still pretty good, especially for a pitcher Atlanta ultimately hopes could be a fifth starter once everyone is healthy. Your average fifth starter also doesn’t normally have an elite-level pitch, which is how Elder’s slider has performed to date this season.
Between Elder’s success, Shuster’s improved results since his return from the minors, and Soroka’s impending return to the big leagues, things are looking up for Atlanta’s rotation. With at least over a month to go until Fried and Wright’s returns, it’s still far too early to say that the Braves are out of danger just yet, but missing key hurlers is less of a problem when a promising young arm like Elder steps up with a front-of-the-rotation performance.
NPB Watch: May Edition
It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the seven players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. Learn more about their play styles and background in the previous article.
Let’s get started.
Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes
The two-time Pacific League MVP has had a “slow” start to the season by his standards. Yamamoto has been consistent and his numbers are as solid as ever, with a 2.35 ERA, 27.6 K%, 6.4 BB%, 2.15 FIP in 38 ⅓ innings, but he’s yet to have the signature performance of the season.
For reference, the Buffaloes ace’s best month last season was June, with a 0.56 ERA in four starts, most notably tossing his first career no-hitter.
Yamamoto was scratched from his planned start this past weekend due to illness but has not been limited by injury thus far, despite concerns.
2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars
In five starts, Imanaga has a 3.48 ERA, 28.4 K%, and 1.6 BB% in 31 innings. The Baystars ace was off to a hot start to the season, tossing 8 innings of shutout ball in his season debut and following it up with a 7-inning shutout performance where he struck out 12. He’s struggled in the following two starts, however, giving up four runs in five innings and five runs in four innings respectively, and allowing a total of four homers.
In his most recent start this past weekend, Imanaga had a solid performance against the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, allowing three runs in seven innings. The three runs came from two home runs, however, so the long ball continues to be an issue for the left-hander in the early going.
Imanaga officially earned his domestic free-agent rights on May 19, but remains focused on the season. “I never thought I’d be in this position to earn this [free agency], and I want to give back to everyone who has been a part of my journey,’ Imanaga said.
3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions
Takahashi has had an impressive start to the year. In his eight starts, the Lions ace has an NPB-best 1.47 ERA, holding hitters to a .182 average, striking out 22.9% of hitters and walking 13.6%, in 55 innings. The biggest factor in his improvement is increased average fastball velocity, which has gone up to 94 mph, compared to 91.56 mph last season. His splitter has been the perfect complement to his improved fastball, hitters are only .068 against it.
Beyond his elite numbers, Takahashi’s strong mentality and his pride as the Lions’ ace have particularly stood out. After his most recent start where he tossed six innings of shutout ball, Takahashi said, “I wanted to be on the mound longer than the opposing pitcher. In order to continue improving, I will reflect on this start so that I can go even deeper into games.”
He outdueled Yamamoto in their April 22 matchup, holding the Buffaloes to two runs and five hits in a complete game. He almost outdueled Yamamoto again on May 6, exiting the game after six innings of one-run ball, but the bullpen was unable to keep the lead.
Takahashi has certainly met the challenge from GM Watanabe and Manager Kazuo Matsui thus far
4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
Became the fastest pitcher in NPB to reach 200 career saves earlier in the season. The Golden Eagles closer has been dominant as ever and has not allowed an earned run in his 12 appearances. He has 6 saves on the season, and hitters are hitting just .095 against him. The lefty hasn’t gotten much work as other relievers so far, as the Eagles have the second-worst record in NPB and sit in last place in the Pacific League.
Matsui officially earned his overseas Free Agent rights on April 27. “It’s still April, so there’s not much to think about,” Matsui said in a statement.
5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
After a nightmarish start to the season, Uwasawa has settled down and is finding his groove. In his last four starts, he’s completed at least 7 innings and has a 2.35 ERA in 30 ⅔ innings. The Fighters right-hander has a 3.72 ERA on the season, striking out 17.9% of hitters and walking 10.8% in 46 innings.
In his most recent start, the 29-year-old right-hander tossed his first shutout since 2018 against the Saitama Seibu Lions, where he fanned 9 and allowed just 4 hits.
Younger stars to keep an eye on
1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines
The “Monster of Reiwa” is off to a dominant start, posting a 0.84 ERA, fanning 43.5% of hitters while walking just 4.3%. Hitters are only hitting .124 against him, and he has a FIP of 0.65.
He’s been sidelined since his May 5 start where he exited in the 5th inning because of a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. He was initially scheduled to pitch on May 21 but was pushed back to May 28, after the starting rotation was reshuffled by a rain-out.
2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows
The young Swallows slugger had a disastrous first month of the season. In 25 games, he hit .157/.311/.265, 2 HR, 15.5 BB%, 37.9 K%, and 12 RBI in 103 plate appearances. Murakami-sama is beginning to look more like his Triple-Crown winning self in May, hitting .278/.381/.556, 4 HR, 14.3 BB%, 23.8 K%, and 10 RBI in 63 plate appearances (as of May 19).
One of the major factors in Murakami’s early season slump is his struggle to hit right-handed pitching. Murakami is hitting a measly .169 against right-handed pitching, and striking out at a 37.7% rate. The slump is also affecting his already sub-par defense at third base where he has 8 errors, the most out of all position players in NPB.
Honorable Mentions
The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.
Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita (NEW!), Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai (NEW!), Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa (NEW!), Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi (NEW!), Chiba Lotte Marines
Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis
Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701
Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.
To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.
Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709
I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.
Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426
Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.
The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.
Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA
A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.
Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631
Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.
Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).
Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.
Cavan Biggio Is In A Tough Spot
It wasn’t that long ago that the Blue Jays looked to be building their infield around a trio of second-generation stars whose fathers combined to go to 20 All-Star Games over the course of their respective careers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio all made their big league debuts in 2019, and all three hit the ground running. Fast forward to 2023, however, and only two of the three have panned out as core pieces. Guerrero and Bichette remain focal points in a talented Blue Jays lineup, but the now-28-year-old Biggio is clinging to a roster spot and could force the Jays to make a decision soon if the can’t turn things around.
While Biggio was never as considered as touted a prospect as either Guerrero or Bichette, he nevertheless looked like a potential key contributor from the moment he debuted. Between his 2019 debut and the shortened 2020 season, Biggio played in 159 games and totaled 695 plate appearances — effectively a full regular season’s worth of playing time — and batted .240/.368/.430 with 24 home runs while going a perfect 20-for-20 in stolen bases. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a bit bloated, and he wasn’t exactly an elite defender at second base, but Biggio walked at a huge 16.1% clip, ran well and showed above-average power.
Since that time, however, Biggio’s output has cratered. In a nearly identical number of plate appearances, he’s batted just .204/.307/.340 with 15 home runs and six stolen bases (eight attempts) — including a disastrous .127/.191/.238 showing in 68 trips to the plate so far in 2023. Biggio has been displaced at second base in recent years — first by Marcus Semien (2021), and then by Santiago Espinal (2022) and Whit Merrifield (2023). The Jays have bounced Biggio around the diamond a bit, giving him more time in the outfield and some time at third base, but the move to a utility role hasn’t been a productive one, clearly.
Biggio remained a disciplined, albeit less impactful hitter in 2021-22 (12.5% walk rate), but this year’s small sample of plate appearances doesn’t line up with even those down seasons. Biggio has walked in just 5.9% of his plate appearances — less than half his 2021-22 levels — and is striking out at a career-worst 38.9% clip. He isn’t suddenly chasing balls out of the strike zone with reckless abandon, as his 21.3% chase rate is right in line with his 2021-22 levels and well shy of the the league-average 31.5%.
However, Biggio’s contact rate when he does chase has plummeted to a career-worst 46.9%. His contact rate on pitches within the zone, meanwhile, has fallen to 80.6% — another career-worst. Heading into the 2023 season, Biggio made contact on 53% of his swings when chasing a ball off the plate and 85.4% on pitches within the zone.
The Blue Jays are a particularly right-handed team, so it’s perhaps understandable if they hope to get Biggio’s left-handed bat going. Brandon Belt, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier are the only lefty-swinging regulars in the lineup. Biggio and outfielder Nathan Lukes are the two lefties on the bench at the moment. Of those five lefties, however, only Kiermaier and Belt have been productive at the plate. Varsho is hitting .206/.279/.359 in his first year with Toronto, while Lukes has gone 2-for-12 in a tiny sample of 14 plate appearances while making his MLB debut.
A lack of bench production, in general, has been a killer for the Blue Jays thus far, though others around Biggio have begun to pick up the pace. Espinal, for instance, opened the season mired in an awful 2-for-31 skid, though that looked rather fluky in nature, given his tiny 9.1% strikeout rate and .071 average on balls in play. He’s hitting .310/.370/.429 over his past 47 plate appearances, including a 3-for-3 effort on Saturday. Danny Jansen was scarcely better early in the year, beginning his 2023 with a 3-for-32 spell. He’s batted .247/.310/.506 since.
There’s been no such turnaround for Biggio, who has just two multi-hit games on the season and has only received 19 plate appearances in the month of May. The Jays clearly value his ability to play all over and provide some speed, as he’s lined up at second base, first base and in right field this month in addition to a trio of pinch-running appearances. However, Merrifield and Espinal have gotten the majority of playing time at second base, even against right-handed pitching, despite the fact that they’re both righties themselves. Biggio hasn’t played a complete game since May 6 and has only started twice in the past two weeks. He hasn’t been on the injured list; he just seemingly hasn’t been in the team’s plans.
For the time being, an injury to Espinal — which the Jays conveniently announced while I was finishing this piece — could open some additional time for Biggio. Utilityman Otto Lopez is up from Triple-A Buffalo in place of Espinal, and he could also enter the mix for at-bats.
Biggio has multiple minor league options remaining, but the Jays don’t have many infield/outfield options who are having productive years in the minors and are options to fill his spot. Lopez is batting only .213/.273/.260 in 139 Triple-A plate appearances, and top infield prospect Addison Barger hasn’t been much better at .237/.333/.329 in 87 plate appearances. Infielder Leo Jimenez is hitting .292 with a .370 on-base in Double-A but has just a .308 slugging percentage. This year’s 73 plate appearances are also his first experience above A-ball. Former top prospect Orelvis Martinez is batting .151/.226/.479 in Double-A. Each of Lopez, Martinez and Jimenez bats right-handed anyhow, and the Jays may want to keep as many lefty options around as possible.
One such option could be 25-year-old first baseman/left fielder Spencer Horwitz, who’s out to a terrific .326/.450/.437 slash in 169 Triple-A plate appearances. Horwitz isn’t hitting for much power and doesn’t project to, but he’s walked in 17.8% of his plate appearances and has torn up right-handed pitching at a .362/.492/.500 clip (.244/.347/.293 against lefties). The former 24th-round pick doesn’t bring the speed or defensive versatility to the table that Biggio would, but the Jays already have Lopez (and, once healthy, Espinal) on hand as a backup infielders who can play many of the same positions as Biggio. Lukes, meanwhile, can play all three outfield spots. Biggio’s defensive versatility is nice, but the Jays have other options at most of the spots he can cover.
This certainly isn’t a call to designate Biggio for assignment, but the Jays are a win-now team who aren’t getting much out of a valuable 26-man roster spot. It’s also tough to see how Biggio can be expected to get back on track when he’s had 19 plate appearances this month and is starting, at best, about a game per week. Again, perhaps the injury to Espinal can change that, but Merrifield still figures to be in line for a large portion of the work at second base.
The Jays showed last year they were willing to carry Bradley Zimmer for most of the season as practically an exclusive pinch-runner/defensive replacement, but Biggio has had more recent success than Zimmer had and at least ostensibly could have more of a future with the club. They could option him for everyday at-bats and see if that can jumpstart his contact abilities; at the very least, it might bring the Jays a more productive lefty bat off the bench, if Horwitz were indeed to be the chosen replacement.
From a bigger-picture standpoint, it’s increasingly tough to see where Biggio fits in if he can’t improve his production. He and the Jays agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the current season over the winter, avoiding arbitration in the process. He’d be arb-eligible again next winter, and it’s hard to imagine the team keeping him around if he has such a limited role and even more limited productivity. If Biggio can’t get things going, he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following the season. For the time being, a shuffling of the bench mix makes sense both to maximize the utility of the big league roster and to hopefully get him back on track in Buffalo — an opportunity that simply isn’t present in the Majors right now.
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
The Guardians’ Lineup Needs An Overhaul
The 2022 Guardians skated to a division title in the American League Central and did so with a lineup unlike any other in MLB. Cleveland’s offense was a triumph for fans of small ball and the older-school game that relied far less on the long ball than today’s brand of three-true-outcomes offenses. The ’22 Guardians put the ball in play more than any other team in baseball, and it wasn’t close. Their 18.2% strikeout rate was the lowest in MLB and made them one of just four teams shy of 20%. The others — the Astros (19.5%), Mets (19.7%) and Cardinals (19.9%) — weren’t particularly close. Cleveland ranked 15th in the Majors in runs scored despite ranking 29th in home runs. Their 119 steals (a number that seems pedestrian in light of this year’s rule changes) ranked third in MLB.
Fast forward a season, and the lineup has a similar complexion but staggeringly different outcome. The 2023 Guardians are MLB’s most punchless team, ranking dead last with 24 home runs — just eight more than Pete Alonso has by himself. Cleveland’s 150 runs scored entering play Friday led only the Tigers (143), and the Guards had played two more games than Detroit. Cleveland enters play ranking 28th in the Majors with a .228 batting average and .302 on-base percentage, and 30th out of 30 teams with a .341 slugging percentage.
As The Athletic’s Zack Meisel pointed out Wednesday (Twitter link), Cleveland catchers have been astonishingly anemic at the plate. Prior to Cam Gallagher‘s single yesterday, the Guardians hadn’t received a hit from their catcher since the calendar flipped to May; Gallagher was hitless in 32 at-bats entering play yesterday, while Zunino is currently 0-for-27 with 21 strikeouts this month.
The Guards opened the season surprisingly carrying three catchers: Mike Zunino, Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. Even after designating Viloria for assignment, they added another catching option in 27-year-old David Fry. The Guardians have gotten less production from behind the dish than any team in the American League. Zunino, Gallagher, Viloria and Fry have combined for a .127/.225/.231 slash (29 wRC+) while serving as catcher, striking out in 38.4% of their plate appearances.
All of this comes at a time when Cleveland has one of baseball’s top catching prospects thrashing Triple-A pitching. Bo Naylor has appeared in 39 games with Columbus, taken 180 turns at the plate and batted .264/.400/.521 with nine home runs, eight doubles, a triple, a sky-high 18.3% walk rate and a 22.6% strikeout rate. The bar he’d need to clear in order to be an upgrade could scarcely be lower, yet he’s still in the minors while Cleveland backstops endure a nearly three-week-long hitless streak.
The problem isn’t confined to the team’s catching corps, although that’s the most glaring weak point in the lineup. Still, here are the Guardians’ position-by-position rankings, in terms of wRC+, at the other positions on the diamond: first base (90, 21st in MLB), second base (86, 19th in MLB), shortstop (79, 23rd in MLB), third base (116, sixth in MLB), left field (97, tied for 13th in MLB), center field (74, 28th in MLB), right field (37, 30th in MLB), designated hitter (80, 26th in MLB).
Jose Ramirez (.285/.364/.457) remains excellent and is the one still decidedly above-average hitter on the roster, although even he’s having a down year by his MVP-caliber standards. Steven Kwan has been solid in left field (.269/.356/.353) but not as good as during last year’s sensational rookie campaign. No other player who’s taken 20 plate appearances for Cleveland this season has been better than league-average at the plate.
Some of this was to be expected. The Guardians surely weren’t hoping to get much offensive production from catcher — though they hoped for more than this — and knew Myles Straw‘s contributions would come more from his elite center field defense and baserunning. But every hitter on the roster has taken a step back from last season’s performance.
The offseason signing of Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal looks regrettable with the Guardians getting closer to the Padres version of Bell from 2022 than the Nationals version. In 177 plate appearances, Bell is walking at a huge 14.7% clip but has batted only .227/.339/.3535 with three home runs. His 19.8% strikeout rate would be the second-highest of his career, and his .127 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is 33 points south of the league average and 67 points below his own career mark. Bell is hitting the ball on the ground at a staggering 58.6% rate. He can opt out of his contract at season’s end, but it would take a drastic turnaround for that to seem realistic.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has optioned last year’s primary right fielder, Oscar Gonzalez, to Triple-A after he followed up last year’s .296/.327/.461 debut with a .192/.213/.288 start to his sophomore season. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco has already outlined shortstop Amed Rosario‘s struggles, and Josh Naylor hasn’t been any better at first base. Will Brennan, called up to replace the demoted Gonzalez, has barely been an improvement.
The Guardians’ commitments to defense-, contact- and/or speed-oriented players at multiple positions isn’t inherently flawed, but it only works if the rest of the lineup is capable of supporting players like Straw and Zunino (or, in last year’s case, Austin Hedges). That hasn’t been the case in 2023. The Guardians’ team strikeout rate is up nearly two percentage points (from 18.2% to 19.8%), while their team BABIP is down 20 points (from .294 to .274).
That might not seem like much — perhaps an extra strikeout and one extra ball in play turned into an out per game — but the margin for error is thin when there’s practically no one on the team with even average power. The Guardians are completely reliant on balls in play to manufacture runs, which leaves them at the mercy of sequencing and hitting when it counts. Entering play Thursday, they’d batted .228/.296/.325 as a team with men on base. Last year, they hit .258/.319/.394 in such situations.
These struggles all come in spite of remarkably good health among the team’s collection of position players. The Guardians don’t have a position player on the injured list at the moment and in fact haven’t placed a hitter on the Major League injured list all season. They’ve still had injury troubles — Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Sam Hentges have most notably been sidelined — but they’ve come exclusively on the pitching side of the roster.
As for how they can turn things around, the avenues to doing so aren’t plentiful in mid-May. The trade market simply isn’t active this time of season — and that was true even before an expansion to a 12-team playoff field likely further emboldened fringe contenders to take a wait-and-see approach to trade deadline season.
Over the past half decade, there have been just two mostly regular position players who were traded in May and had not first been designated for assignment. The Rays shipped Willy Adames and righty Trevor Richards to the Brewers for right-handers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen back in 2021. Tampa Bay was also involved in a 2018 swap with the Mariners, centering around Denard Span and Alex Colome. That’s not to say a deal can’t and won’t happen, but history tells us it’s overwhelmingly unlikely. Cleveland can certainly monitor the DFA and waiver market, but with a 20-23 record they’re not close to top waiver priority right now.
If the Guardians are going to right the ship, they’ll need to promote from within. Bo Naylor is an obvious candidate to join the big league roster and quite arguably should already be there. Tyler Freeman hit .329/.468/.482 in 109 Triple-A plate appearances before being called up to the roster but is being used in a bench role. He’s not a home run threat himself and the team isn’t going to bench Andres Gimenez seven weeks into a seven-year extension, but there are still ways to get Freeman into the lineup more regularly. Top outfield prospect George Valera only just made his season debut in Triple-A a week ago, as he missed the first several weeks of the year recovering from hamate surgery. If he’s able to approximate the .264/.367/.470 output he showed in Double-A last year over even a small sample, there’s good reason to give him a look in right field over both Brennan and Gonzalez sooner rather than later.
The Guardians are rather fortunate that they’ve managed to remain as close to .500 as they have. They’re sitting on a -31 run differential, while the Pythagorean win-loss system and BaseRuns both put their expected record at 18-25. Their sub-par run differential and sub-.500 record come despite the fact that Baseball-Reference grades their strength of schedule to date as the third-easiest in MLB.
Cleveland has already gone full speed ahead with a youth movement in the rotation, giving prospects Tanner Bibee, Logan T. Allen and Peyton Battenfield prominent rotation spots. Some of that’s been necessitated by injury, but the Guardians weren’t shy about optioning one of their most experienced starters, Zach Plesac, to Columbus when he wasn’t performing up to expectations. Given the state of their lineup, it shouldn’t be long before they take a similar approach on the position-player side of the roster. And, if some of those young bats don’t break through, the Guardians ought to be on the lookout for controllable bats heading into the trade deadline — particularly with so much young pitching at their disposal. The schedule is only going to become more difficult from here on out, and the current group of hitters gives little reason for optimism.
Looking Back On The 58 Players Who Hit 30 Or More Home Runs In 2019
It’s generally accepted that something fishy was going on with the baseball in 2019 that led to a spike of home runs. Matt Snyder of CBS Sports laid out some of the records that had been broken at season’s end. There were 6,776 homers hit across the league, shattering the previous high of 6,105 from 2017. That figure was 5,944 in 2021 and 5,215 last year, indicating it wasn’t just modern hitters getting really good at launch angle or anything like that. Fifteen of the 30 clubs in the league set franchise records, led by the 307 hit by the Twins and their “Bomba Squad.”
Commissioner Rob Manfred admitted in September of that year that something needed to be done about the baseball. An MLB study found the spike was caused by smaller seams leading to less drag, though that only accounted for about 35% of the decreased drag with the remaining 65% unaccounted for. The league has been pretty guarded about its manufacturing process, forcing others to try to piece together the cause from the outside, such as astrophysicist Dr. Meredith Wills (links from The Athletic).
Regardless of the cause, the spike happened and impacted the statistics of that season, which could have impacted trades, extensions and free agent contracts. It was well known the spike was happening, but how easy was it to determine which players were having real breakouts and which were mirages? Now that we are a few years removed from the anomalous season, let’s take a look back at the shocking 58 players who hit 30 or more homers and see how those seasons stand out with a bit of hindsight.
Pete Alonso – 53 home runs in 2019
Alonso’s 53 home runs broke the rookie record, which Aaron Judge had just recently set with 52 in 2017. He hasn’t been able to get back to that level since but hasn’t been far off. He hit 16 in 2020 then 37 and 40 in the next two years. He’s already at 16 this year through just 45 games. He’s slated for free agency after 2024.
Eugenio Suárez – 49
Suárez shattered his previous single-season high of 34, set the previous year. He would go on to struggle in the next two years but still show tremendous power, hitting 15 home runs in 2020 and then 31 in 2021 while his batting average hovered around .200. The Reds decided to move on from his contract, which was signed prior to 2018 and still ran through 2024 with an option for 2025. He and Jesse Winker were traded to the Mariners in what was seen by some as a salary dump move. However, Suárez bounced back last year with 31 more home runs and a much more palatable .236 batting average. He has just four through 43 games so far this year.
Jorge Soler – 48
Soler had only been a part-time player prior to 2019 but burst onto the scene in a huge way with these 48 long balls. He’s since demonstrated that was a high point in a very hot-and-cold career to this point. He disappointed with just eight homers in 2020 and had just 13 at the end of July 2021 when he was flipped to Atlanta. He then caught fire by hitting 14 more down the stretch and three more in the World Series, winning series MVP as Atlanta took the trophy. He parlayed that into a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins but hit just 13 last year while battling injuries. He’s now on fire again in 2023 with 11 dingers through just 42 games.
Cody Bellinger – 47
Bellinger hit 39 home runs in 2017 and then 25 more in 2018, so getting to 47 in 2019 was a new high but didn’t come out of nowhere. He combined those homers with 15 stolen bases and excellent defense to win Most Valuable Player of the National League. His production dipped a bit in 2020 and he hasn’t seemed the same since injuring his shoulder during the 2020 postseason. He struggled badly in 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers and signing with the Cubs this year for $17.5MM. He’s off to a good start this year, striking out way less than the past few years, but isn’t quite at his MVP pace. He has seven long balls in 37 games so far.
Mike Trout – 45
Trout had already been considered the best player in baseball for roughly half a decade before 2019, having hit between 27 and 41 home runs in each of the previous seven seasons. His 45 homers in 2019 are a career high, but just barely, as he reached 40 two other times. His second extension with the Angels, which runs through 2030, was signed in March of 2019.
Christian Yelich – 44
Yelich had long been an excellent bat-to-ball hitter but started to add power to his game prior to 2019. He hit just nine homers in 2014, seven in 2015, but then spiked to 21, 18 and 36 in the next three years, winning NL MVP in the last of those. In 2019, he jumped up to 44, then signed a nine-year, $188.5MM extension with the Brewers going into 2020. He added another 12 long balls in the shortened 2020 season but then hit just nine and 14 in the next two full seasons. He has seven so far in 2023.
Alex Bregman – 41
Bregman’s power seemed to be naturally ticking up as he matured, as he hit 19 home runs in 2017 as a 23-year-old, followed by 31 and 41 in the next two years. He would be hampered by injuries in the next two years, hitting six homers in 42 games in 2020 and then 12 in 91 games the year after. He was healthy enough to play 155 games last year and hit just 23 over the fence, though with excellent offense otherwise, walking more than he struck out. His extension that runs through 2024 was signed prior to the 2019 campaign.
Nolan Arenado – 41
Arenado’s 41 homers in 2019 aren’t even a career high, as he hit 42 in 2015 and also hit 41 in 2016. His extension with the Rockies was signed prior to the 2019 campaign. He was traded from the Rockies and Coors Field to the Cardinals and Busch Stadium prior to 2021 but still hit 30 or more homers in each of the past two years. He’s tallied another nine so far in 2023.
Ronald Acuña Jr. – 41
Acuña hasn’t been able to get back to this level of power, but due to circumstances beyond his control. He hit 14 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, then was already up to 24 homers in July of 2021 when he tore his ACL. He came back last year and played 119 games but didn’t seem to be fully healthy and hit just 15 homers. Now seemingly back to 100%, he already has 11 homers this year through 43 games. His extension that runs through 2028 via club options was signed in April of 2019.
Nelson Cruz – 41
Cruz had long been a feature of home run leaderboards prior to 2019, getting to 22 or more in each season since 2009 and finishing at 37 or higher in the five previous seasons. His career high is the 44 he hit in 2015. The Twins picked up their $12MM option for 2020 and saw Cruz hit hit 16 more in the shortened 2020 season. He was re-signed for 2021 at a rate of $13MM, hitting 32 home runs on the year, which included a midseason trade to the Rays. He only hit 10 last year, though that was his age-41 season.
George Springer – 39
Springer’s 39 home runs are a career high, but just barely. He hit 29 in 2016, 34 in 2017 and 22 in 2018. He followed up his 39-home spike in 2019 with 14 more in the shortened 2020 season. The Blue Jays signed him to a six-year, $150MM deal going into 2021. He hit 22 and 25 home runs in the first two years of that contract despite being limited by injuries to just 78 and 133 games, respectively.
Freddie Freeman – 38
Freeman has long been a very balanced hitter, combining some power with strong batting averages, on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. He’s reached double digits in home runs in each season going back to 2011, but 2019 was a slight peak for him. His 38 homers this year are his career high, one of three times he’s gone over 30. He signed an early-career extension with Atlanta that ran through 2021 and then signed a six-year, $162MM deal with the Dodgers as a free agent prior to 2022.
Gleyber Torres – 38
Torres burst onto the scene with 24 home runs in just 123 games in 2018 and then got that number up to 38 in 2019. Injuries seemed to hold him back in the next two seasons, as he went on the injured list in each while being limited to just three and nine home runs in those campaigns. He got back on track last year with 24 and has six so far in 2023. He’s in his third of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player and is slated for free agency after 2024.
Kyle Schwarber – 38
Schwarber hit 30 homers in 2017 and 26 in 2018 before spiking to 38 in 2019. He then struggled in 2020, hitting .188 despite adding another 11 home runs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs and signed with the Nationals for one year and $10MM, hitting 32 home runs between them and the Red Sox after a midseason trade. He signed a four-year, $79MM deal with the Phillies going into 2022 and launched 46 over the fence last year. He has a tiny .175 batting average this year but has already added another 10 homers.
Josh Donaldson – 37
Donaldson already had a long run as a potent hitter, with 24 or more homers in each year from 2013 to 2017. That included the 41 he hit in his 2015 MVP season, which he followed up with 37 and 33 in the next two years. He was injured for much of 2018, hitting eight home runs in 52 games before reaching free agency. He settled for a one-year, $23MM “prove it” deal with Atlanta and bounced back with a 37-homer campaign. That led to a four-year, $92MM contract with the Twins going into 2020. He only played 28 games in the shortened season but still launched six over the fence. He then hit 26 more in 2021 before getting flipped to the Yankees prior to 2022. He hit just 15 for the Bombers last year and has only played five games so far this year due to injury.
Josh Bell – 37
Bell has long been a tantalizing hitter but has often been undone by too many ground balls. His grounder rate has been at 50% or higher in each season of his career except for his 48.5% clip in 2018 and a well-timed drop to 44% in 2019. He’s since gone back above 50% in each season since and is actually above 60% so far in 2023. His 37 long balls in 2019 were easily a career high, eclipsing his previous best of 26 in 2017. He then had a dismal 2020 and was flipped from the Pirates to the Nationals, bouncing back with 27 that year. He had 14 at the deadline in 2022 when he was flipped to the Padres but added just three more after the deal. He signed a two-year, $33MM deal with the Guardians coming into 2023, with an opt-out after the first year, but is pounding the ball into the ground again and has just three homers on the season.
Franmil Reyes – 37
Reyes first showed off his power by hitting 16 homers in just 87 games in 2018, then took it to new heights with 37 in 2019, getting traded from San Diego to Cleveland in the latter season. He continued serving as a middle-of-the-order threat for the next couple of years, hitting nine more homers in 2020 and then 30 in 2021. However, he crash landed last year, striking out in almost a third of his plate appearances, getting put on waivers and claimed by the Cubs. He finished the year with 14 homers between the two clubs and was non-tendered in the offseason. He signed a minor league deal with the Royals for this year and made their Opening Day roster but was eventually designated for assignment and landed with the Nats on his second minor league deal of the year.
Matt Chapman – 36
Chapman broke into the majors in 2017 with 14 homers in just 84 games then followed that up with 24 in 2018 and 36 in 2019. He had 10 more in 2020 after just 37 games before requiring hip surgery. He returned in 2021 with an elevated strikeout rate but still launched 27 homers. He was traded to the Blue Jays prior to 2022, added 27 more last year and has five in 2023. He’s slated for free agency this offseason.
Matt Olson – 36
Olson incredibly launched 24 home runs in just 59 games in 2017. He wasn’t able to maintain that ridiculous pace but has settled in a fairly consistent level. He hit 29 in 2018, 36 in 2019, 14 in the shortened 2020 season and then 39 in 2021. He was traded to Atlanta prior to 2022 and quickly signed an eight-year, $168MM extension. He went on to hit 34 homers in his first season with his new club and has 11 more already in 2023.
Max Kepler – 36
Kepler had a few years of solid defense and roughly league average offense earlier in his career, which included hitting between 17 and 20 home runs in three straight seasons from 2016 to 2018. The Twins showed their faith in him by giving him a five-year, $35MM extension going into 2019 and he rewarded that with a 36-homer surge. He hasn’t been able to maintain that in the seasons since, hitting nine in 2020, 19 in 2021 and just nine last year, though he has six so far this season.
J.D. Martinez – 36
These 36 homers from Martinez were actually a dip for him, as he hit 45 in 2017 and 43 in 2018. He could have opted out of the three years remaining on his contract but decided to stay in Boston, eventually struggling in 2020 and forgoing a second opt-out opportunity. He bounced back with a strong 2021 that included 28 home runs before declining to opt out for a third straight year. He then hit 16 homers in 2022 before becoming a free agent and signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers, for whom he has five long balls so far this year.
Joc Pederson – 36
Pederson has been fairly steady in the power department, with the 2019 season seeing him push a bit above his norms. He hit 26 homers in 2015 and 25 in 2016 before dipping to 11 in 102 games of an injury-marred 2017 season. He then bounced back to 25 in 2018 before the jump to 36 in 2019. He had an ill-timed slump in 2020 just as he was about to become a free agent. He signed a one-year deal with the Cubs and was traded to Atlanta, hitting 18 homers between those two clubs. He signed with the Giants last year and parlayed a 23-homer season into receiving and accepting the qualifying offer to stick in San Francisco for another year, adding five more homers so far.
Trevor Story – 35
Story’s power output for the Rockies was fairly steady. He debuted with 27 in just 97 games in 2016, had a slight dip to 24 in 2017 and then bumped that up to 37 in 2018. That means it was actually a small drop when he hit 35 in 2019. He then added 11 more in 2020 and 24 in 2021 before becoming a free agent and signing a six-year, $140MM deal with the Red Sox. He made multiple trips to the IL in his first season away from Coors, hitting 16 homers in 94 games. He required elbow surgery this past offseason and has yet to play in 2023.
Max Muncy – 35
Muncy’s 35 long balls were an exact match for what he hit in his 2018 breakout. The Dodgers then gave him a three-year, $26MM extension going into 2020. He added 12 more in that shortened season and then got to 36 in 2021. He battled injuries in 2022 while hitting just 21 homers but the Dodgers had enough faith in him to pick up his 2023 option and tack on another club option for 2024. He seems to be healthy and back on track this year, already tallying 15 dingers to this point.
Bryce Harper – 35
Harper debuted in 2012 as a 19-year-old and hit at roughly a 20-homer pace for his first few seasons before breaking out with 42 in 2015. He dipped to 24 in 2016 but has been a pretty steady mid-30s guy since then. He hit 29 in just 111 games in 2017, then hit 34 and 35 the next two years. His 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies was signed prior to that 2019 campaign. He launched 13 in the shortened 2020 season then 35 the year after and another 18 last year despite playing in just 99 games.
Trey Mancini – 35
Mancini hit 24 home runs in each of the two previous seasons before jumping to 35 in 2019. He then missed the entire 2020 season while undergoing treatment for colon cancer, returning to hit 21 and 18 home runs in the next two seasons, getting flipped to the Astros in the latter campaign. He signed a two-year, $14MM deal with the Cubs going into 2023. The contract allows him to opt out after the first year, but he’s out to a tepid start to the season with three homers thus far.
Eduardo Escobar – 35
Escobar wasn’t a huge power hitter earlier in his career but started showing promising signs by hitting 21 in 2017 and 23 the year after. He jumped to 35 in 2019 but had a nightmare season in 2020 that included just four long balls. He bounced back with 28 in 2021 between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, then hit the open market and signed with the Mets for $20MM over two years plus a club option. He hit 20 more dingers with the Mets last year but is scuffling a bit this year, including just four homers so far.
Mike Moustakas – 35
Moustakas hit 38 home runs in 2017 just as he was about to hit free agency. He turned down a $17.4MM qualifying offer but never found the significant free agent deal that many expected he would find, and he ultimately returned to the Royals for just one year and $6.5MM. He then hit another 28 homers in 2018, a season that included a midseason trade to the Brewers. He re-signed with Milwaukee for one year and $10MM, then hit another 35 long balls. He finally landed the long-term deal he was looking for, signing with the Reds for four years and $64MM. He was fine in 2020, hitting eight home runs as part of a solid showing in the shortened season, but he has been injured and ineffective since. He only played 140 total games over 2021 and 2022 with only 13 homers in that time and was released this winter. He’s now with the Rockies but is hitting at a subpar level so far, including just a pair of home runs.
Anthony Rendon – 34
Rendon hit between 20 and 25 homers in the three previous seasons, but his 34 in 2019 was a significant jump. He added another three in the postseason as the Nats won the World Series, and he then hit free agency, signing with the Angels for $245MM over seven years. Rendon hit nine homers in the shortened 2020 season but has largely been injured since then. He got into just 58 and 47 games in the next two seasons and is now currently on the injured list after 30 contests so far this year. Those three seasons have resulted in 12 home runs in a combined 135 games.
Juan Soto – 34
Soto debuted in 2018 at the age of 19 and hit 22 home runs in just 116 games. He followed that up with 34 in 2019, then hit 13 in just 47 games in 2020. He followed that up with 29 in 2021 and 27 the year after, the latter season including his trade to the Padres, and is at seven homers so far this year. His 2019 is still his high water mark, though his 2020 pace was actually stronger and he’s been just a shade lower in the subsequent seasons.
Carlos Santana – 34
Santana has been pretty consistent as a hitter in his career. He has 11 seasons with 18 or more homers, with his age-33 season of 2019 being one of the two times he got to 34. He struggled in 2020 and had his club option declined by Cleveland. The Royals then signed him to a two-year, $17.5MM deal beginning in 2021, wherein he hit 19 homers but struggled overall. He was a bit better in 2022 as he hit another 19 home runs, most of which came after a trade to Seattle. He signed a one-year, $6.725MM deal with the Pirates for 2023 and has added a couple more long balls so far.
Paul Goldschmidt – 34
Going into 2019, the Cardinals acquired Goldschmidt and then gave him a contract extension that runs through 2024. He already had four 30-plus homer seasons under his belt with a career high of 36. The 2019 campaign was his fifth such season, and he’s since added two more.
Miguel Sanó – 34
Sanó has plenty of power but has always struggled to stay healthy. His 34 homers in 2019 are a career high but he’s hit 28 or more on three other occasions, even though he’s never been able to stay healthy enough to play more than 135 games. He only got into 20 contests last year due to knee injuries, after which the Twins declined their club option over him. He has yet to sign elsewhere.
Edwin Encarnación – 34
2019 was the eighth season in a row that Encarnación hit 32 or more home runs, getting to 42 in two of them. Nonetheless, the Yankees declined a $20MM option for his age-37 season, going for the $5MM buyout instead. He signed a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox for 2020, hitting another 10 home runs in that shortened season but with a .157 batting average. He expressed interest in continuing his career but didn’t sign anywhere for 2021.
Gary Sánchez – 34
Sánchez exploded onto the scene with 20 home runs in just 53 games in 2016. He then hit 33 the next year and 18 more in just 89 games in 2018. Getting to 34 in 2019 clearly didn’t come out of nowhere, but his bat has fallen off since. He hit 10 more in the shortened 2020 season but with a .147 batting average, then hit 23 and 16 home runs the next two seasons as his average hovered around .200. He was traded to the Twins prior to that 2022 campaign and became a free agent, ultimately settling for minor league deals with the Giants and Mets. The latter club will be calling him up to the majors today.
Marcus Semien – 33
Semien’s previous single-season record for home runs was 27, which was in 2016, before he spiked to 33 in 2019. He then slumped in 2020 and had to settle for a one-year, $18MM deal with the Blue Jays in 2021. They moved him from shortstop to second base and saw him launch an incredible 45 homers that year, which he parlayed into a seven-year, $175MM deal with the Rangers. He hit 26 with Texas last year and has seven so far in 2023.
Xander Bogaerts – 33
Bogaerts is more of a “pure hitter” given his .291 career batting average, low strikeouts and modest power. He’s reached double-digit home runs in eight seasons, but his 33 in 2019 are easily a career high, as he’s never topped 23 otherwise. He hit 11 in the shortened 2020 season and then 23 and 15 in the two seasons after. He had signed a six-year extension with the Red Sox going into 2019, but one that afforded him the ability to opt out after 2022. He triggered that opt-out and ultimately signed an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres. He’s hit six homers so far in his first season in San Diego.
Austin Meadows – 33
Meadows debuted with the Pirates in 2018 and then came to the Rays that year as part of the now-infamous Chris Archer deal that also brought Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay. Meadows established himself with those 33 homers in 2019 but struggled in 2020, being limited by injuries to just 36 games and four homers. He bounced back with 27 long balls in 2021 and was traded to the Tigers not long before the 2022 season began. Unfortunately, injuries and anxiety have limited him to just 42 games since then, without him hitting a home run for his new team to this point.
Michael Conforto – 33
Conforto had a fairly consistent run for a few years, hitting 27 home runs in 2017, 28 in 2018, a small spike to 33 in 2019 and then nine in the shortened 2020 season. He then had an ill-timed power outage in 2021, hitting just 14 on the year. He nonetheless turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets and went into free agency looking for a multi-year deal but hurt his shoulder in the offseason and required surgery. He didn’t sign anywhere and missed the whole season. Conforto signed a two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants coming into this year, one that allows him to opt out after the first season as long as he reaches 350 plate appearances. He’s up to eight home runs so far through 39 games.
Kole Calhoun – 33
Calhoun hit 17 homers in 2014 then jumped to 26 the next year, before settling in at 18 to 19 home runs each year from 2016-18. His total of 33 in 2019 nearly doubled his typical output. He reached free agency after that season and signed with the Diamondbacks for two years and $16MM. Calhoun launched an incredible 16 home runs in the shortened 2020 season but then spent much of 2021 on the injured list, getting into just 51 games with five homers. He signed a one-year, $5.2MM deal with the Rangers for 2022, hitting 12 home runs but striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. He’s currently with the Yankees’ Triple-A team on a minor league deal.
Hunter Renfroe – 33
Renfroe hit 26 homers in each of the two previous seasons before jumping to 33 in 2019. He was then traded to the Rays and had a dismal showing in the shortened 2020 season, with eight homers but a batting average of just .156. He was non-tendered and signed with the Red Sox, bouncing back in 2021 with 31 long balls. He was traded to the Brewers and hit 29 more last year, before getting traded yet again. With the Angels this year, he already has 10 on the season.
José Abreu – 33
Hitting 30 home runs in a season was nothing new for Abreu, as 2019 was the fourth time he had done it. He then signed a three-year, $50MM deal to stick with the White Sox. He managed to hit 19 in the shortened 2020 season and then added another 30 in 2021. His power seemed to finally taper off a bit last year as he hit just 15 but still slashed a healthy .304/.378/.446. He signed a three-year, $58.5MM deal with the Astros coming into this year but is off to a rough start, hitting .220/.269/.262 through 42 games with no homers.
Rafael Devers – 32
Devers was still young and on the rise in 2019. He had debuted in 2017 at the age of 20, hitting 10 homers in just 58 games. He then got to 21 in 2018 and 32 in 2019 before adding 11 in the shortened 2020 season, followed by 38 and 27 in the next two years. This past winter, he signed an extension that will keep in Boston through 2033 and net him $313.5MM.
Ketel Marte – 32
Marte had been established as a solid bat-to-ball hitter but with modest power. He signed a five-year, $24MM extension with the Diamondbacks going into 2018 and then hit 14 home runs that year, the first time he reached double digits. Getting to 32 in 2019 meant he more than doubled his previous high. He was then hobbled by injuries in the next couple of seasons, hitting just a pair of home runs in 2020 and then 14 long balls in 90 games in 2021. He signed a second extension with the D-backs, this one for $76MM over five years. Marte hit 12 more long balls in 2022 and has five so far this year.
Francisco Lindor – 32
This was actually a bit of a dip for Lindor, as he had hit 33 homers in 2017 and 38 more in 2018. He added eight in the shortened 2020 season before getting traded to the Mets and signing a ten-year, $341MM extension. Lindor hit 20 and 26 home runs in the first two years of that new deal and has six so far this year.
Manny Machado – 32
2019 was the fifth season in a row that Machado reached the 30-homer plateau, having twice climbed as high as 37. It was his first season in San Diego after signing a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres. He’d go on to hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season, then 28 and 32 in the next two full seasons. Back in February, he and the Padres agreed on a new contract that will run through 2033, paying him $350MM over that stretch.
Charlie Blackmon – 32
Blackmon hit 29 homers in 2016 and added 37 more the year after, then signed a five-year, $94MM extension going into 2018. He added 29 more homers that year before getting to 32 in 2019. Getting to the 30-homer range was nothing new at that time, but he’s tapered off as he’s aged. He hit six in the shortened 2020 season, followed by 13 and 16 in the next two seasons. Now 36 years old (37 in July), he’s added three more so far this year.
Eddie Rosario – 32
Rosario’s 2019 came as part of a run of consistency, but he’s been less steady since. He hit 27 and 24 home runs in the two preceding seasons before peaking at 32 in 2019. He added 13 more in the shortened 2020 season but struggled out of the gate the year after. He had just seven at the trade deadline in 2021 when he was flipped to Atlanta, then caught fire and hit seven more down the stretch. He’d tally three more in the playoffs as Atlanta took the trophy that year. He re-signed on a two-year, $18MM deal but has struggled, only playing 116 games since that deal was signed with nine homers in that time.
Kris Bryant – 31
Bryant hit 39 homers in 2016 and had been above 25 in two other campaigns, so there was nothing unexpected about his 31 homers in 2019. He had an injury-marred 2020 season before bouncing back with 25 homers in 2021, a year that saw him traded to the Giants. He then reached the open market and signed a seven-year, $182MM deal with the Rockies. Injuries have prevented him from doing much in Colorado so far, as he’s played just 82 games since signing that contract, hitting 10 home runs in that time.
Jose Altuve – 31
2019 was Altuve’s fifth straight season with his home run tally in double digits, but his previous high was 24. He slumped badly in 2020 but then bounced back with 31 more in 2021 and then added 28 last year. He has twice signed extensions with the Astros, the second of which came prior to 2018. He’s missed all of 2023 so far after breaking his thumb during the World Baseball Classic but will return from the injured list tonight.
Mitch Garver – 31
Garver had hit seven home runs in 103 games in 2018 but then rocketed all the way up to 31 in 2019, amazingly doing so in just 93 games. He’s been injured for much of the time since but has still shown power when healthy enough to play. He hit 13 homers in just 68 games in 2021, then 10 in just 54 games last year, getting traded to the Rangers in between those two seasons. He’s only been able to play six games for Texas so far here in 2023 due to a left knee sprain.
Yuli Gurriel – 31
Gurriel has long been an excellent bat-to-ball hitter, rarely walking or striking out but frequently running up strong batting averages. His previous best in the home run column was 18 in 2017, but he almost doubled that with 31 in 2019. He struggled badly in 2020, but the Astros nonetheless signed him to a one-year extension. He bounced back by hitting .319 in 2021 with 15 home runs, leading the club to pick up a club option for 2022. That turned out to be another down year, and Gurriel settled for a minor league deal with the Marlins this winter. He made the club but is hitting .242 with just three home runs so far.
Eloy Jiménez – 31
The White Sox showed tremendous faith in Jiménez by signing him to a six-year, $43MM extension in March of 2019, before he had even made his major league debut. He rewarded that faith by hitting 31 home runs in 2019 and added another 14 in the shortened 2020 season. Since then, however, injuries have prevented him from running up huge counting stats. He’s played just 164 games since the start of 2021, making frequent trips to the IL, but has hit 30 home runs when healthy enough to play.
Randal Grichuk – 31
Grichuk had already hit over 20 home runs three times coming into 2019 when he and the Blue Jays agreed to a five-year, $52MM extension. He got up to 31 in 2019, added 12 in the shortened 2020 season and 22 more the year after. Despite the power, his low walk and high strikeout rates took some of the value away from those homers. He was flipped to the Rockies going into 2022 and hit 19 homers last year. He began this year on the injured list and has only played 13 games so far.
Renato Núñez – 31
Núñez had played just 90 games over the previous three seasons in a part-time role, hitting nine home runs in that time. He then blasted 31 homers for the Orioles in 2019 and 12 more in 2020. However, he also struck out at a high rate, didn’t walk much and received poor defensive grades, making his production fairly one-dimensional. He was released prior to 2021 and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Tigers. He only got into 14 big league games with them that year then went to Japan last year and is playing in the Mexican League this year.
Paul DeJong – 30
DeJong debuted with 25 home runs in just 108 games in 2017 and then signed a six-year, $26MM extension with the Cardinals. He added 19 more in 2018 then 30 in 2019, but he’s struggled badly after that. DeJong hit just three home in 2020 while striking out at a 28.7% clip, then hit 19 homers in 2021 but with a .197 batting average. Things got even worse last year, as he hit .157/.245/.286 on the season, getting optioned to the minors for most of the summer. He seems to be back on track this year, having already hit six home runs in just 20 games while batting .282/.346/.577.
Daniel Vogelbach – 30
Vogelbach had just 146 career plate appearances before he exploded onto the scene with 30 home runs for the Mariners in 2019. He struggled in 2020, bouncing to the Blue Jays and Brewers and managing six home runs in 39 games. He hit just nine in 93 games for the Brewers in 2021 and was non-tendered after the season. Vogelbach had a bit of a bounceback in 2022, signing with the Pirates and getting traded to the Mets, hitting 18 more homers that year. The Mets exercised a club option for 2023. Vogelbach has just two home runs but is walking at an incredible 17.8% rate.
Rougned Odor – 30
Odor hit 33 home runs in 2016, prompting the Rangers to give him a six-year, $49.5MM extension. He hit 30 more in 2017 and dipped to 18 in 2018 before climbing back up to 30 in 2019. However, all of those home runs generally came with low on-base percentages. He hit 10 more in 2020 but batted .167 and walked at just a 4.7% rate. He was traded to the Yankees going into 2021 and hit 15 more homers but with a .202 batting average and 7.5% walk rate. He was released by the Yanks and signed by the Orioles last year, hitting another 13 homers but again without hitting for average or drawing walks. He signed a minor league deal with the Padres this year and has been selected to the roster to serve in a part-time role.
D-Backs’ Offseason Trade Pickup Off To Excellent Start
In an offseason light on impact trade activity, the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays pulled off one of the biggest swaps. Arizona’s left-handed hitting outfield surplus and Toronto’s catching depth materialized in the deal that sent Gold Glove caliber outfielder Daulton Varsho to Toronto for rookie backstop Gabriel Moreno. That duo were the main players involved, but Arizona also added right-handed balance to the lineup with the inclusion of veteran left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel has a longer MLB track record than either of Varsho or Moreno but was by far the tertiary player in terms of trade value. He’d been a good but not elite hitter throughout his time with the Jays. In 2022, the Cuban-born outfielder put up a .291/.343/.400 batting line with five home runs over 493 plate appearances. That offensive output checked in 14 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. Paired with average defensive marks in a corner outfield spot, Gurriel has been worth between one and two wins above replacement in every season of his career (although he would’ve been on a better pace in 2020 if that schedule hadn’t been truncated).
There was no question Gurriel was a viable major league player. He’d been a near average regular for the entirety of his career. Due roughly $5.4MM in his final season before free agency — a clause in the contract he signed with Toronto after defecting from Cuba allows him to reach the open market next winter even though he’ll be a little shy of six years of MLB service — he had trade value but not an overwhelming amount.
Arizona anticipated an immediate downgrade in their outfield from Varsho to Gurriel, a tradeoff they were willing to make to install Moreno behind the plate for the next six seasons. While that could still play out, Gurriel has somewhat surprisingly been the far more productive of the two outfielders through the first couple months of the year. Varsho has started his Toronto tenure with a .217/.294/.382 showing through 42 contests. Over his first 39 games in the desert, Gurriel is off to a career-best .310/.373/.552 pace. His seven homers in 161 plate appearances already tops last year’s mark and puts him on pace to beat his career-best 21 longballs from two years ago.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored before this season, injuries could certainly have played a role in Gurriel’s up-and-down results from 2022. He’d bookended a very strong run between June and July with dismal numbers in May and August. A hamstring strain cut his season short in early September and, likely of greater import on his production, he underwent surgery on the hamate bone in his left hand following the season. Hand and wrist injuries can sap a hitter’s strength; if Gurriel were playing through that issue for a while, it’d be understandable why his power production was at a career-worst level.
Better health is a plausible explanation for some of Gurriel’s improved production but doesn’t account for all of it. He’s also working with a more dialed-in plate approach than he has in years past. Through play Wednesday, he’s sitting on a personal-low 14.9% strikeout rate and drawing walks at a career-best 8.1% clip.
While Gurriel has always had good bat-t0-ball skills, he has taken things to a new level in the early going by being more selective. He has offered at 45.8% of the pitches he’s seen, the lowest rate of his career by three percentage points. Gurriel is translating that approach into consistent contact. He has gotten the bat on the ball on an excellent 85.8% of his swings, almost six points better than last year’s personal-high mark. Pitchers have been unable to beat him in the zone, with Gurriel making contact nearly 92% of the time he goes after a would-be strike. He’s putting the ball in play more consistently without sacrificing any of his contact authority.
That’s an ideal combination for a hitter. Gurriel is 29th among 171 qualified batters in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging. That plays even without elite defense in the outfield. It’s among the reasons Arizona sits at 25-19 with a +16 run differential and looks like a legitimate contender for a Wild Card spot in an uncertain National League playoff picture.
A career showing couldn’t be timed better for Gurriel personally. He’s headed to the open market for the first time since he was a 23-year-old amateur signee. He’ll do so in advance of his age-30 season and as part of a free agent class that looks very thin on position player talent. Among potential impending free agents with 100+ plate appearances, only Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Max Muncy (who’s controllable for 2024 via $10MM club option) have a higher wRC+ than Gurriel’s 148.
Gurriel isn’t going to be the #3 free agent position player in the class but he has a chance to hit his way into a solid multi-year deal. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto topped $35MM on contracts with opt-out possibilities as bat-first corner outfielders. Both players had durability concerns that aren’t there with Gurriel. The five years and $75MM secured by Andrew Benintendi feels lofty given Benintendi’s defensive advantage and youth (he signed going into his age-28 season), but Gurriel looks like the superior hitter.
At the very least, Arizona’s new acquisition has a chance to position himself as an interesting mid-tier free agent. It remains to be seen if he can keep up his present pace over six months but he looks healthier than he had last season and is making excellent swing decisions. It’s a better start than the D-Backs could’ve expected and a key development in the club’s strong start to the year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Giants Are Getting The Best Out Of J.D. Davis
There hasn’t been much doubt that J.D. Davis can hit. He got some very limited playing time with the Astros in 2017 and 2018 but burst onto the scene with the Mets after being acquired in a trade prior to the 2019 season. He went on to hit 22 home runs that year and slashed .307/.369/.527 for a wRC+ of 137. Defensively, the Mets put him in left field more often than his primary position of third base. He graded poorly in both spots but he still hit enough that he produced 2.5 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.
Although 2019 was the “juiced ball” season, Davis wasn’t a one-year fluke at the plate, continuing to hit in the years since. His .247/.371/.389 line in the shortened 2020 season was a bit beneath the year before but still good enough for a 118 wRC+. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the injured list due to recurring issues in his left hand and only got into 73 games but still batted .285/.384/.436 for a 129 wRC+ when he was healthy enough to step up to the plate.
Last year, he was hitting .238/.324/.359 for the Mets through 66 games for a wRC+ of just 102 when the Giants took a flier on him, acquiring him alongside three other players in the deadline deal that sent Darin Ruf to Queens. The Elk Grove native quickly got things back on track after moving to the West Coast, slashing .263/.361/.496 down the stretch for a 142 wRC+.
Even with that strong finish, he didn’t have a secure hold on a full-time gig coming into this year. The Giants had seen one of their prospects, David Villar, perform well in his major league debut last year by hitting .231/.331/.455 in 52 games. Back in mid-February, the club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said the Giants considered Villar to be their starting third baseman heading into Spring Training.
Despite all that solid work at the plate, the major concern about Davis has been his defense. From 2019 to 2022, Davis was considered to be worth -25 Defensive Runs Saved at third base, one of the five worst marks in the majors at that position for that time frame. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average weren’t quite as negative but also graded him as being subpar.
The club clearly liked Davis enough to acquire him but they also wanted to see what they had in Villar, a player much younger and with more club control. That left Davis with some work to do, something that Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle discussed with him as Spring Training was just getting going. Davis talked about how he had been working with bench coach and infield/baserunning instructor Kai Correa on his defense, particularly his footwork, while manager Gabe Kapler highlighted his propensity for swinging and missing at pitches in the strike zone as his weak point on offense.
We’re now roughly three months removed from Zaidi declaring Villar the club’s third baseman and that profile on Davis, and the picture has completely changed since then. Davis hit a torrid .311/.354/.467 in the spring while Villar limped to a line of .143/.167/.286. Villar still got six starts at third base in the club’s first 10 regular season games but only got two more after that as he’s hit .148/.240/.318 on the year so far and was optioned to the minors a couple days ago.
Davis, meanwhile, has taken the job at the hot corner and is running off with it. He already has seven home runs and is slashing .294/.368/.492 for a wRC+ of 136, just a hair under his 2019 breakout. His average exit velocity is in the 95th percentile of qualified hitters and his hard hit rate 94th. His contact rate on pitches in the zone is 82.9%, the highest of his career. His 25% strikeout rate is still higher than average, but it’s a big improvement over the past two seasons, each of which saw him finish above 32%.
But perhaps most remarkably, his defensive grades have improved dramatically. DRS has Davis at league-average at third this year, no small feat considering his woeful grading in previous years. UZR gives him a grade of 1.1 for the season so far, one of the top 10 among major league third basemen. Outs Above Average currently has him at +4, trailing only Josh Rojas, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Eugenio Suárez at the hot corner. This is a small sample size of just 259 2/3 innings, so it’s too soon to decisively declare Davis a plus defender, but there’s seems to be a budding consensus that his glovework has taken a meaningful step forward.
Davis seems to be in peak form both at the plate and in the field, which has allowed him to produce 1.3 fWAR already in just 38 games, more than halfway to his career-high of 2.5 from that 2019 season. While the Giants are surely thrilled by those developments, it could lead them to a difficult decision a few months from now. Overall, the club has struggled to an 18-23 start to the season, putting them behind the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres in the National League West. There’s still plenty of time for the club to turn things around, but there’s a chance they may have to consider some selling when the trade deadline approaches.
Davis came into this season with between four and five years of service time. That means he can still be retained via arbitration for 2024 and isn’t an impending free agent. The club won’t feel they absolutely have to move him, but it would at least warrant some consideration if they find themselves outside the playoff race. Given his strong performance, year-and-a-half of control and modest $4.21MM salary this year, he would surely garner plenty of interest. There’s a handful of contenders with question marks at third base who would likely pick up the phone, such as the Twins, Phillies and Yankees. The Giants could flip him for some younger and cheaper players, then perhaps give Villar another shot at the big leagues in the latter months of the season. The alternative would be holding onto Davis and hoping for better results as a team next year before he reaches the open market.
Of course, the club will be hoping they play well enough over the next few months they don’t even have to consider that path. Despite their sluggish start, they’re only two games back of a Wild Card spot at the moment due to slow starts from other contenders like the Phillies, Mets and Padres. There’s no sense in shoveling dirt on their season just yet, but front offices have to consider all potential avenues and will surely be having conversations about how they want to proceed.
Time will tell how that plays out, but for now, it’s all good news. The Giants sent Ruf to the Mets and acquired Davis less than a year ago. Even if it were just a one-for-one swap, that deal already looks like a huge win, since Ruf has gone in the opposite direction since then. He was released by the Mets earlier this year, briefly returned to the Giants, and just yesterday signed with the Brewers. Of course, it wasn’t a one-for-one swap. The Giants also got Thomas Szapucki, Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour in the trade. If any of those pitchers can develop into useful pieces, it will be icing on a cake that is already very sweet thanks to Davis.
Matt Chapman Is Mashing His Way To A Massive Payday
From 2018-19, the short list of baseball’s best all-around players would’ve unequivocally included then-Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman. The 2014 No. 25 overall pick graduated from top prospect status to everyday big league third baseman in the second half of the 2017 season, and by 2018 he’d thrust himself into the fringes of the American League MVP conversation. Chapman finished sixth in AL MVP voting in 2018 and seventh in an All-Star 2019 season. He batted a combined .263/.348/.507 with 60 home runs between those two seasons, winning Gold Gloves at third base each year. Chapman ranked eighth among all position players with 12 Wins Above Replacement from 2018-19, per FanGraphs.
The A’s had a star third baseman on their hands and were seeing a young core that included Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Ramon Laureano blossom into the foundation of a perennial contender. That group never advanced beyond the ALDS but did respectively win 97, 97, 34 and 86 games in 2018-21 before the front office tore things down in the 2021-22 offseason as Athletics ownership embarked on a Rachel Phelps-esque plan to push the team out of Oakland.
Part of the reason the A’s missed the postseason in that 86-win 2021 campaign was undoubtedly that Chapman had taken a step back in production following 2020 hip surgery. That’s not to pin the team’s playoff miss solely on the star third baseman, of course, but Chapman’s production dipped in 2020 as his strikeout rate soared to 35.5% while he played through tendinitis and a torn labrum in his hip. His 2021 campaign saw Chapman post a career-worst .210/.314/.403 batting line with a 32.5% strikeout rate — a far cry from the MVP-caliber output he flashed in 2018-19.
Though they were selling at a low point, Oakland still traded Chapman to the Blue Jays amid that 2021-22 offseason teardown, receiving top pitching prospect Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-handed starter Zach Logue (whom they lost on waivers the following winter) and left-handed reliever Kirby Snead. Chapman’s first year in Toronto was solid but still nowhere close to his previous heights; he played top-shelf defense, as always, but his .229/.324/.433 batting line (117 wRC+) was good — not great. He swatted 27 home runs and succeeded in lowering his strikeout rate back beneath the 30% level, but it still sat at a well above-average 27.4%.
Chapman was a good player, to be sure, but from 2020-22 he hit .221/.314/.432. His plus power (64 homers, .211 ISO in 1395 plate appearances) and standout defense still made him a valuable, above-average regular at third base, but he no longer looked like the budding superstar he did during that 2018-19 peak — at least… not until 2023.
We’re just six weeks into the season, but Chapman has not only rebounded substantially from that 2020-22 downturn, he’s eclipsed even his peak levels of production thus far. Through his first 153 trips to the plate, Chapman is hitting .338/.425/.579 with five home runs. His 17 doubles are already more than he hit in the entire 2021 season. The strikeout rate that spiked north of 30% and sat at 27.4% a year ago is down to 25.5%, with reason to believe it could improve further.
Chapman’s 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate are both markedly better than the respective league averages of 10.9% and 31.4%. That doesn’t guarantee his strikeout rate will come down, but chasing bad pitches and whiffing less often than the league-average hitter should, in theory, eventually push his strikeout rate south of the league average.
Beyond the gains in strikeout rate and contact rate, Chapman is simply decimating the ball when he puts it into play. No one in baseball has a higher average exit velocity than Chapman’s 95.3 MPH mark, and his ludicrous 28.7% barrel rate is the best in MLB by an enormous margin of six percentage points. Aaron Judge is second at 22.7%, and there are only six total hitters in MLB at 20% or higher. An astonishing 67% of Chapman’s batted balls have left the bat at 95 mph or more.
Given the authority with which Chapman is hitting the ball, it’s actually a bit surprising he’s only connected on five home runs. His launch angle is right in line with his 2018-19 levels, and he’s hitting the ball in the air more often than he did in his previous peak years. After hitting a fly-ball in 41.3% of his plate appearances in 2018-19, Chapman is at 47.9% in 2023. A smaller percentage of those fly balls are of the infield variety (8.9% versus 15.9%), too. He’s curiously seen just 11.1% of his flies become home runs this year, compared to the 16.6% rate he enjoyed during his career with Oakland. That’s despite hitting the ball harder now and playing in a more homer-friendly venue; it stands to reason that Chapman’s home run output will be on the upswing sooner than later, provided he maintains this quality of contact.
Maintaining this pace, of course, will be difficult to do. Chapman’s clearly enjoying some good fortune right now, evidenced by a massive .449 average on balls in play. He’s already begun to see some regression, hitting .206/.308/.265 in 39 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to May. That dip in production is attributable not only to a drop in his BABIP, but more concerningly a spike in his strikeout rate. We’re looking at a small sample within a small sample, and the endpoints are admittedly arbitrary, but Chapman has fanned in exactly one-third of his plate appearances this month.
It was never reasonable to expect Chapman, a career .240/.329/.469 hitter entering the season, to sustain a batting average in the high-.300s, of course. But he’s regularly shown an ability to make high-quality contact in the past, so the big thing to keep an eye on with him as he approaches his first trip to free agency at season’s end was always going to be his contact rates.
If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play. He’s still walking at an excellent 11.8% clip, after all, and his glovework at third base remains well-regarded. Statcast currently has him at one out below average but also tabs him in the 83rd percentile in terms of arm strength. He’s been credited with five Defensive Runs Saved already, and he’s sporting a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. To date, Chapman has only made two errors this season.
His ability to sustain his elite contact and avoid reverting to his bloated strikeout rates over the next five months will be particularly telling. While Chapman once looked like he’d be the third-best free agent at his own position, the equation has changed substantially. Both Rafael Devers and Manny Machado signed long-term extensions to keep them in Boston and San Diego, respectively, leaving Chapman as the clear No. 1 third baseman on the market.
At this rate, however, Chapman won’t be just the clear top option at third base — he looks like he’ll be far and away the best position player on the market (excluding two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who’s in a free-agent tier unto himself). The upcoming free-agent class is utterly devoid of impact bats. Teoscar Hernandez, a resurgent Cody Bellinger, a somewhat resurgent Joey Gallo, and Hunter Renfroe look like the top bats who’ll be available. There’s still some time for that to change — a torrid summer from Javier Baez or Josh Bell could alter the calculus, for instance — but right now the market for position players is decidedly bleak.
When we were first kicking around thoughts and ideas for the initial installment of our 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes floated the idea of Chapman surpassing a $200MM guarantee. That was on April 4. The number felt jarring and unrealistic, and he received plenty of pushback on the idea due to Chapman’s hip surgery, uptick in strikeouts and general downturn in production since 2020.
Just a few weeks later, that type of contract feels far, far more plausible. Chapman has been the best hitter in baseball for nearly a quarter of the season, and the market surrounding him will be among the thinnest in recent memory. Perhaps that’ll lead to an uptick in trade activity throughout the league, but for teams looking to pad their roster without depleting the farm system (and without spending half a billion dollars on Ohtani), Chapman currently looks like he’ll be the best bet. Add in his defensive prowess and the fact that he won’t turn 31 until late next April — plus last year’s spike in ultra-long, CBT-skirting contracts — and it increasingly looks like Chapman and agent Scott Boras will be in prime position to break the bank.