MLBTR Originals

The Orioles Struck Waiver Gold Last November

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2022 at 3:12pm CDT

The last time left-hander Cionel Perez was tagged on a post at MLBTR was 11 months ago, when the Orioles announced they’d claimed him off waivers from the Reds. Ditto righty Bryan Baker, whom the Orioles claimed from the Blue Jays two weeks prior. They were the definition of innocuous offseason moves at the time: a last-place team claiming a pair of little-known relievers who’d been waived by non-playoff clubs performing garden-variety 40-man roster maintenance. The moves were met with the expected cynicism associated with waiver claims of this ilk.

At the time, it wasn’t wholly clear whether either would even survive the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Perez was out of minor league options, so he’d have to win a big league spot during Spring Training or else be subjected to waivers a second time. It’s not at all uncommon for fringe 40-man players in that spot to eventually be designated for assignment when a team signs a free agent, acquires an established player via trade, or claims someone else on waivers.

Fortunately for the O’s, both Perez and Baker indeed survived the winter on their 40-man roster. Perez fired six shutout innings with just three hits and two walks against seven strikeouts during the truncated Spring Training. Baker tossed four innings of one-run ball. Both found their way onto the Opening Day roster. Prior to this year, Perez had pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 50 2/3 MLB innings, including a 6.38 mark in 2021. Baker had one MLB inning to his name.

Before long, Perez found himself building a strong start to his 2022 season, however, solidifying his hold on a place in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen. He opened the year with 9 2/3 shutout frames, and while an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio along the way was a bit less impressive, he followed that strong first month with seven more innings of one-run ball and an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio. By the time the Orioles’ game on June 1 drew to a close, Perez had pitched 16 2/3 innings with a 0.55 ERA, a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate and a 51.2% ground-ball rate.

Along the way, Perez increasingly began to incorporate a new pitch into his repertoire: a power sinker that averaged a hearty 96.6 mph. He’d never thrown a sinker in a Major League game before, and Perez used the offering sporadically through the season’s first three months, only flashing it 9.6% of the time. In mid-July, however, Perez committed to the pitch more decisively, and from July 16 through season’s end he used that new sinker at a 22.4% clip. His four-seamer, which he’d previously thrown 52.4% of the time, saw its usage rate dip to 36.9%.

Perez posted a sparkling ERA both pre-sinker and post-sinker, but the secondary numbers suggest that Perez’s success with the sinker was more sustainable than without. Once he leaned more heavily into the new pitch, he fanned 25.2% of his opponents, walked 9.0% of them, induced grounders at a 52.8% rate and yielded an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. Prior, those rates were 22%, 8.9%, 50% and 89.6 mph. The gains weren’t Earth-shattering, but Perez’s results were better once he gained more comfort with his new pitch. Seventy percent of the sinkers that were put into play against Perez were grounders.

Good as Perez was in 2022, there’s likely some regression in store. His .284 average on balls in play isn’t especially fortunate, but few pitchers can sustain marks as low as Perez’s 0.31 HR/9 and 4.3% homer-to-flyball ratio. He’s also unlikely to continue stranding 87.4% of his runners moving forward — a rate that ranked ninth in MLB (min. 50 innings) behind a collection of some of the game’s most proficient strikeout artists. Still, there’s not much about his 2022 season that portends a complete implosion next year.

Baker took the opposite route of Perez, getting hit hard and hit often early in his first extended look at the MLB level. Through June 19, he’d been tagged for a grisly 5.60 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The O’s opted to stick with him rather than option him to Triple-A, however, and they’re likely quite glad they did.

Baker threw his changeup less than 10% of the time in those first two-plus months but more than doubled his usage to 21.4% from late June through season’s end. Meanwhile, he continued to up his fastball velocity, averaging 97.3 mph over the final few months after sitting just 95.2 mph through his first 27 1/3 innings. From June 24 through season’s end, Baker posted a 2.13 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

It’s an open question whether he can sustain the velocity gains he picked up during the season, but his changeup was a devastating out pitch for him down the stretch. Baker finished off 48 plate appearances with a changeup in 2022, surrendering only two hits (both singles) and racking up 25 strikeouts in the process. Statcast credits him with a hearty 37.7% whiff rate on the pitch and gives his opponents credit for an expected wOBA of just .123. Hitters averaged just 83.1 mph off the bat when they put Baker’s changeup in play — with 55% of those batted balls taking the form of grounders.

Neither Perez nor Baker will draw the fanfare of up-and-coming Baltimore stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fill key roles as the team looks to continue its emergence from an arduous rebuild. Perez is controllable for another four seasons, and Baker can be controlled for five more years. There’s some obvious volatility when it comes to year-over-year performance with relievers, so perhaps Perez and/or Baker will come crashing back to Earth at some point. For now, however, the O’s have what looks like a pair of setup men they acquired for free — a quality lefty/righty combo that’ll help to form a bridge to fellow out-of-the-blue breakout Felix Bautista.

Keep in mind that this is the same Orioles team that traded another waiver wire All-Star, Jorge Lopez, prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Building quality bullpens has proven to be an Achilles heel for countless front offices, but at least for the 2022 season, the O’s made it look downright easy. Their ability to continue doing so could well be as important to turning the tide as the arrival of many of the system’s vaunted top prospects.

The Guardians Have Some Middle Infield Decisions To Make

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2022 at 12:21pm CDT

Two months ago, I wrote about Andres Gimenez’s 2022 breakout and how it was a critical factor in propelling the Guardians toward what would eventually be their first division title since 2018. Gimenez finished strong following that Aug. 30 writing, going on to bat .282/.387/.385 in his final 137 plate appearances.

For the season on the whole, Gimenez batted .297/.371/.466 with 17 home runs, 26 doubles, three triples and 20 steals — pairing that all-around offensive value with some of the game’s best defense at second base. Even if you expect some regression based on this year’s .353 average on balls in play — Statcast pegged him with an “expected” .257 batting average, based on the quality and frequency of his contact — Gimenez still looks like a strong defensive infielder with quality on-base percentages, some power and plenty of speed.

The excellence of Gimenez’s season goes a long way toward justifying the organization’s trade of Francisco Lindor, at least from a pure roster standpoint. Lindor was terrific in his second season with the Mets, but Guardians ownership was never going to give Lindor the type of contract he received in Queens, and Gimenez showed that he can be a building block himself. With four years of club control remaining, he could be — or at least should be — an offseason extension candidate.

Of course, Gimenez alone was not the sole return for Lindor. Also acquired in that swap was another longtime top infield prospect of the Mets: Amed Rosario (plus outfielder Isaiah Greene and right-hander Josh Wolf). Soon to turn 27, Rosario perhaps hasn’t lived up to the sky-high expectations set when he was ranked among the top five to ten prospects in all of baseball, but he’s settled in as a solid option for the Guardians at shortstop. He hit .283/.312/.403 in 670 plate appearances this season, bringing his collective output in two seasons with Cleveland to .282/.316/.406. By most metrics, this was also his best defensive season (though Statcast disagreed, grading him at seven outs below average).

Unlike Gimenez, however, Rosario’s contract status isn’t quite so favorable. Despite his youth, Rosario debuted with the Mets way back in 2017 and spent three full seasons as a regular with them. As such, he came to the Guardians with “only” three seasons of club control remaining. He’s now coming up on the third and final of those three seasons.

Rosario not only has just one season of club control remaining — he has one relatively expensive season of control remaining. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9MM salary for Rosario next year in his final season before free agency. For a solid everyday shortstop with at least an average bat, that’s a reasonable price to pay. Rosario hit 11 home runs, stole 20 bases, knocked 26 doubles and paced the Majors with nine triples. Baseball-Reference’s version of wins above replacement (which uses Defensive Runs Saved as the primary defensive component) pegged him at 4.1 WAR. FanGraphs’ version (which uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s OAA) pegged him at 2.3 WAR. Any way you slice it, Rosario looks like a good value at that rough price point.

Then again, that’s simply looking at the situation in a vacuum — which few front offices have the luxury of doing. That $9MM figure would’ve represented about 13% of the Guardians’ Opening Day payroll from the 2022 season. Cleveland only has a combined $18MM in guarantees on next year’s books, but their arbitration class could tack another $37MM or so onto the ledger. Add in another 15 pre-arbitration players at or around next year’s $720K league minimum, and the Guardians are right back to the $68-69MM mark at which they opened this past season — before making a single addition.

Granted, the strength of Cleveland’s young players is a large reason they defied expectations and won the AL Central in 2022, and it’s justifiable to suggest that they could effectively run out nearly the same group again in 2023 and be competitive. Doing so, however, would rely on replicating this year’s uncanny level of health; the Guardians had by far the fewest IL days of any team in baseball. There’s also the simple fact that even with a roster good enough to take the division, the Guards fell in the ALDS. The very fact that they had a postseason run at all could provide some extra revenues and boost payroll in 2023, but the extent to which that might be true isn’t clear at this juncture.

Beyond the payroll implications is the simple fact that Cleveland is rife with middle-infield options and could look to fill Rosario’s role internally while reallocating that salary to other areas of need. Gimenez rose through the minors as a shortstop and has thrived there in limited Major League work, posting six Defensive Runs Saved, five Outs Above Average and a 2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 452 innings. There’s good reason to believe that he could slide to the other side of the bag and not only handle the position but even improve Cleveland’s infield defense.

Looking beyond Gimenez and Rosario, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias both made their MLB debuts in 2022 and have been considered among the organization’s best prospects for the past couple seasons. Neither hit much in the Majors, and Arias struggled in Triple-A as well, but both are young and at least on the cusp of MLB readiness. Freeman, who fanned in just 9.3% of his Triple-A plate appearances, seems to fit a brand of Cleveland baseball that particularly emphasizes bat-to-ball skills.

Elsewhere in the minors, the Guardians have touted 21-year-old Brayan Rocchio, though he has just 33 games in Triple-A under his belt and struggled at the plate as one of the younger players in that league. Jose Tena gives Cleveland yet another 21-year-old middle infield option who’s already reached Triple-A; he’s not as highly touted as Rocchio but did bat .267/.306/.419 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022.

Depending on which of the in-house middle infield prospects forces his way onto the big league roster first, Cleveland could deploy Gimenez at either middle infield spot. Freeman, for instance, has played plenty of shortstop but is generally regarded as a future second baseman. Rocchio and Arias, meanwhile, have drawn plus grades for his glovework at shortstop in scouting reports — as did Gimenez during his prospect days. The logjam of talented, young, up-the-middle defenders is hardly a true “problem” for the Guardians, though, and Gimenez’s ability at either spot gives the team the luxury of letting the situation play itself out in Spring Training and early next season.

Suffice it to say, there are plenty of options for Cleveland in the middle infield if they look to move Rosario and spend the roughly $9MM or so he’d command in another manner, be it in the outfield, behind the plate or to deepen an already excellent pitching staff. The question facing the front office this winter is whether it’s prudent to spend more than 10% of the 2023 budget on Rosario when the organization is flush with talented middle-infield options who could play a key big league role for the league minimum.

There’s certainly an alternative scenario where they keep Rosario and trade some middle-infield talent to bolster another position on the roster, so Rosario shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a sheer lock to be traded. That said, history tells us the Cleveland organization will be plenty comfortable listening to offers on him this offseason. And, given the number of teams that are on the lookout for middle infield help every offseason — and the number of teams for which that projected $9MM salary wouldn’t be nearly so cumbersome — it’s easy enough to connect the dots and see that a trade is at the very least quite plausible.

How The Phillies Built Their NL Championship Team

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2022 at 7:43pm CDT

After reaching the postseason in 2011, the Phillies didn’t even post another winning record until their modest 82-80 effort in 2021. Between the dismantling of their 2008 championship core, a rebuild, and then a few stalled attempts at returning to contention, it has often been a frustrating (phrustrating?) decade for Philadelphia baseball fans…until, suddenly, it wasn’t. The Phillies went 87-75 this season to claim the final NL wild card berth, and then upset the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres in a magical playoff run that has resulted in the franchise’s eighth National League pennant.

Given this recent history, the Phillies’ emergence can be seen as both unexpected and overdue. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski (who has taken his fourth different organization to the World Series) deserves a great deal of credit for putting the Phillies over the top, though the roots of Philadelphia’s roster also extend back to former general managers Matt Klentak and Ruben Amaro Jr.

While the 2022 team received contributions from several players who have since been traded, released, sent to the minors, or simply not selected for the postseason rosters, let’s take a look at the collection of players who have fueled this run back to the World Series…

Homegrown, international signings: Seranthony Dominguez (2011), Ranger Suarez (2012)

For casual fans who may be only getting to know Dominguez and Suarez this postseason, it may be surprising to learn that they are longtime organizational mainstays. Both were signed at age 16 for a modest $25K bonus, and their development into key arms is yet another example of why MLB teams continue to scout and invest in the international market.

Dominguez made his MLB debut in 2018, but after pitching well out of the bullpen in his first two seasons, he missed almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns due to Tommy John surgery. Returning to action this year, Dominguez didn’t miss a beat in posting a 3.00 ERA over 51 innings, emerging as the team’s top choice for high-leverage situations in both the regular season and playoffs.

Suarez also debuted in 2018, and his early promise as a swingman also hit a health-related roadblock when he missed most of the 2020 season recovering from COVID-19. The Phillies continued to use Suarez both out of the rotation and in the pen in 2021 before converting him into full-time rotation work this year, with solid results. The southpaw posted a 3.65 ERA over 155 1/3 innings and 29 starts, and he has continued to thrive in the postseason with a 2.16 ERA over 8 1/3 frames.

Homegrown, amateur draft: Aaron Nola (2014 draft, first round, seventh overall pick), Rhys Hoskins (2014, 5-142), Bailey Falter (2015, 5-144), Dalton Guthrie (2017, 6-173), Nick Maton (2017, 7-203), Connor Brogdon (2017, 10-293), Alec Bohm (2018, 1-3), Matt Vierling (2018, 5-137), Bryson Stott (2019, 1-14)

The lack of a consistent minor league pipeline has been a sore spot for the Phillies over the last decade, as while Nola and Hoskins were standouts, several other highly-touted prospects either didn’t have success in the majors or didn’t even make the big leagues whatsoever. Homegrown prospects don’t necessarily need to be stars, but it certainly helps when a team can fill roster holes from within, which is why the contributions of Brogdon, Vierling, Falter, Guthrie, and Maton have all raise the roster’s talent floor. Falter and Brogdon in particular became regulars in the rotation and bullpen, while Vierling received a lot of playing time before the Phillies finally acquired Brandon Marsh to address their center field need.

Nola and Hoskins continue to be productive, while Bohm and Stott have now broken out as first-round picks making an impact. Bohm bounced back from a rough 2021 to become the Phillies’ regular at third base, and Stott also looks to be an infielder of the future after becoming the everyday shortstop. While it remains to be seen if either player will remain at those positions down the road, that isn’t an issue for the 2022 squad.

Free agent signings: Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Brad Hand, Andrew Bellatti, Corey Knebel (injured)

John Middleton became the managing partner of the Phillies’ ownership group in 2015, and after waiting out a few rebuilding years, Middleton was ready to “maybe even be a little bit stupid about” increasing the payroll. The heavier spending really started with the signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana during the 2017-18 offseason, but things really kicked into high gear when Harper was inked to a 13-year, $330MM free agent deal in February 2019. Essentially from the moment the contract was signed, there was speculation whether or not Harper was really worth such a massive investment, and yet it’s safe to say that those doubts have been silenced. Harper’s first four seasons in Philly have included a .282/.394/.546 slash line, 101 homers, the 2021 NL MVP Award, and a scorching run through the postseason (including NLCS MVP honors).

Klentak oversaw the Harper signing, as well as Wheeler’s addition on a five-year, $118MM contract the next offseason. Dombrowski has been no stranger to big contracts over his front office career, and when he took over in the front office following the 2020 season, the Phils continued to hand out the dollars — this past winter, it was $100MM over five years for Castellanos, and $79MM over four years for Schwarber.

It isn’t always a strategy that works, and the Phillies themselves have enough high-profile free agent misses to act as evidence that a team can’t simply buy their way to success. And yet with an ownership group willing to exceed the luxury tax, this spending has worked out because Harper, Wheeler, and Schwarber have more than held up their ends of the deal. Even Castellanos has contributed some key hits in the playoffs, after struggling during much of the regular season. Beyond these big-ticket contracts, the Phils also scored on smaller deals with relief pitchers, as Hand, Bellatti (signed to a minor league deal), and Knebel were all effective. Knebel unfortunately hasn’t been a part of Philadelphia’s October run, as a torn shoulder capsule ended his season in August.

Trades: J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Brandon Marsh, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, Zach Eflin, Edmundo Sosa, Garrett Stubbs, Jose Alvarado, Nick Nelson

The Phillies’ aggressiveness also manifested itself on the trade market, headlined by the blockbuster deal with the Marlins that brought Realmuto to Philadelphia in 2019. With Realmuto re-signing with the Phils in free agency on a five-year, $115.5MM deal, he is now locked up through the 2025 season, turning the trade even into more of a win for the Phillies.

Since Segura was acquired back in December 2018, fans may have forgotten just what a fascinating deal it was that brought him from the Mariners. Segura filled a hole for a team that was ready to win immediately, and as it turned out, Seattle also picked up a cornerstone infielder in J.P. Crawford (as well as Santana’s contract). Segura is entering the last year of his contract and it remains to be seen if he’ll return in 2023, yet his contributions in Philadelphia will always be appreciated. Segura provided above-average offense while acting as an everyday shortstop and second baseman in his four seasons, plus a little time at third base.

With the Phillies battling for a wild card berth for much of the season, the trade deadline was a key moment for adding reinforcements for the stretch run. In landing Marsh and Syndergaard (in separate trades) from the Angels, Sosa from the Cardinals, and Robertson from the Cubs, Dombrowski went 4-for-4 in upgrades, as the quartet each provided important contributions. Marsh may be the biggest acquisition of the lot, as the former top-100 prospect now looks like the answer to the Phillies’ longstanding hole in center field.

Gibson was the big get at the 2021 deadline, as Gibson, Ian Kennedy, and prospect Hans Crouse were acquired from the Rangers for a three-player package. Unfortunately, this swap didn’t really work out, as Gibson has delivered only a 5.06 ERA over 236 2/3 innings in a Phillies uniform over the last two seasons. Still, Gibson has at least eaten some innings, and is now available on the postseason roster as a long relief option.

Eflin was part of two major trades within a two-day span back in December 2014, first dealt from the Padres to the Dodgers as part of the five-player swap that sent Matt Kemp to San Diego and Yasmani Grandal to Los Angeles. The Dodgers then flipped Eflin (and lefty Tom Windle) to the Phillies for Philadelphia icon Jimmy Rollins, putting some extra pressure on Eflin before he ever stepped onto a mound in the City of Brotherly Love. Eflin has been a mostly consistent and even underrated back-of-the-rotation arm over his seven seasons with the Phils. Due to another bout of knee problems that led to a 60-day IL stint during the season, Eflin has been used as a reliever rather than as a starter during the playoffs, pitching in six of the Phils’ 11 games.

It’s easy to be overlooked as Realmuto’s backup catcher, but after Stubbs was acquired from the Astros last November, he won that backup role and ended up appearing in 46 games in the regular season. Already known as a solid defensive catcher, Stubbs showed some offensive ability for the first time in his four MLB seasons, hitting an impressive .264/.350/.462 over 121 plate appearances.

Several relievers have already been mentioned in this post, and the Phillies’ bullpen was still something of a question mark even this season, though the relief corps has done its job in getting the team to the brink of a championship. Alvardo was acquired from the Rays in December 2020 following two injury-plagued seasons, and the southpaw’s 3.71 ERA over 106 2/3 IP has been a tightrope walk, defined by a lot of strikeouts (32K%) and a lot of free passes (15.3% walk rate). Nelson has also been shaky, posting a 4.85 ERA and an NL-leading 13 wild pitches in 68 2/3 frames since being acquired from the Yankees in a four-player trade last November.

Trade Candidate: Rowdy Tellez

By Maury Ahram | October 23, 2022 at 9:52am CDT

When the Blue Jays traded Rowdy Tellez to the Brewers in June 2021, the move was mostly seen as a depth addition to stabilize first base after slugger Daniel Vogelbach went down with a hamstring injury. Now, over a year since that trade was completed, Tellez has blossomed into a righty-masher, posting a .222/.303/.498 (117 wRC+) slash line against right-handed pitchers in 2022, with a collective .219/.307/.462 line and 35 homers against all competition.

On the heels of such a productive season, Tellez will garner some trade interest. Predicted to earn only $5.3MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, Tellez projects as an affordable option in a thin first base market (recently analyzed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco). Besides José Abreu, Josh Bell, potentially Anthony Rizzo if he executes his opt-out, and a few veterans coming off down years, there are few first basemen available that provide power similar to Tellez.

As for the Brewers, while they do not currently have any top prospects at first base, ranked by MLB.com, former Brewers’ top prospect Keston Hiura does not have a clear starting spot. Willy Adames and Luis Urías are penciled in as the starting shortstop and third baseman, respectively, and Kolten Wong is patrolling Hiura’s natural position, second base, with prospect Brice Turang waiting in the wings if the Brewers decline Wong’s club option this offseason. With a crowded infield, the Brewers may be forced with the tough call of starting Hiura, who hit .226/.316/.449 in 80 games last season, and trading Tellez, or potentially moving on from Hiura due to the logjam.

If the Brewers decide to trade Tellez, some teams that might be interested in the slugger include the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.

The Astros relied on Yuli Gurriel to hold down first base during the 2022 season, but the 38-year-old, who will turn 39 during the 2023 season, showed signs of decline, hitting a meager .242/.288/.360 in 146 games. It’s a far cry from the strong .319/.383/.462 line the righty posted in the 2021 season, and more akin to his weaker, pandemic-shortened 2020 showing in which he hit .232/.274/.384 in 57 games. Internally, the Astros have Yainer Díaz and Joe Perez as potential heirs to Gurriel. Both players made their MLB debut in 2022, but neither progressed through the minor league system as first basemen. Díaz, who hit .294/.343/.587 in Triple-A Sugar Land this past season split time at catcher and first, after beginning his minor league career as a catcher. Perez spent time at the other corner infield position, third base, but is blocked by All-Star Alex Bregman. Perez spent the majority of the 2022 season at Doble-A Corpus Christi where he slashed .265/.355/.397 in 64 games.

The Giants primarily used a combination of Brandon Belt and Wilmer Flores at first base this past season. The lefty Belt hit an underwhelming .213/.326/.350 and underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee while the righty Flores hit a slightly stronger .229/.316/.394. With Belt a free agent, the Giants could trade for Tellez to platoon with utility man Wilmer Flores. However, the Giants may opt to bring back Belt in hopes of a rebound season after he slashed an impressive .274/.378/.597 during the 2021 season.

Jose Quintana’s Resurgence Sets Up Intriguing Trip To Free Agency

By Simon Hampton | October 22, 2022 at 2:25pm CDT

When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.

Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.

It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.

Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.

So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.

To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)

With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.

Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.

This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.

Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.

Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

By Brad Johnson | October 21, 2022 at 7:50pm CDT

Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

By Darragh McDonald | October 21, 2022 at 9:06am CDT

After a deep rebuild that featured last-place finishes in each of the past four full seasons, the Orioles showed signs of optimism in 2022. Many of their prospects reached the majors and played well, allowing the club to flirt with postseason contention and finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. GM Mike Elias has teased that the coming offseason will involve a higher payroll, but just how aggressive will they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

John Means, LHP: $2.975MM through 2023 (arbitration-eligible for one year thereafter)

Option Decisions

Jordan Lyles, RHP: $11MM club option with $1MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Anthony Santander (4.162): $7.5MM
Cam Gallagher (4.073): $1MM
Austin Voth (3.127): $2MM
Cedric Mullins (3.078): $4.4MM
Austin Hays (3.057): $3.1MM
Dillon Tate (3.048): $1.5MM
Jorge Mateo (3.000): $1.8MM
Non-tender candidate: Gallagher

Free Agents

Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor, Jesús Aguilar, Brett Phillips, Denyi Reyes, Anthony Castro, Richie Martin, Travis Lakins Sr.

The Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years, with few people expecting anything different going into 2022. But many of the club’s young players either made strong debuts or took steps forward, leading the team to a respectable season for the first time in recent memory. They stayed in the Wild Card race until the final week of the season and actually finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016.

What that means going forward is an open question that will be answered in the months to come. General manager Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, meaning we have no template for what it looks like when he decides to be aggressive. The club hasn’t given a multi-year contract to a free agent since Alex Cobb’s four-year deal in March 2018, before Elias was hired.

Back in August, Elias said that the O’s will “significantly escalate the payroll,” though he could mean different things by that. The highest Opening Day payroll the Orioles have ever had was the $164MM of 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though it’s been steadily declining since then. This year’s mark was just under $44MM, the lowest in the league. It would be possible for the payroll to escalate “significantly” while still remaining low compared to the other 29 clubs. But if they want to be truly aggressive, there’s little standing in their way. They have no long-term commitments whatsoever, with Means the only player on the books for 2023 and literally no one guaranteed for 2024.

If they do decide to make a sizeable commitment to a free agent, it would make the most sense for it to be a pitcher since the position player core is in decent shape. Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman made good on his top prospect status with an excellent rookie season. In 113 games, he hit .254/.362/.445 for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That would be impressive work for any batter, but it’s especially impressive for a catcher, and a rookie at that. He also got good grades from defensive metrics, allowing him to produce 5.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and cementing himself as the catcher of the future.

A Spring Training injury delayed his debut until May, meaning he’s currently short of one year of MLB service time. However, there’s a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement that gives a full year of service to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting. Rutschman will most likely finish second behind Julio Rodríguez, meaning he would have five years of club control remaining before hitting the six-year mark. That should keep Rutschman in Baltimore through at least 2027, though an extension could always lengthen the relationship and would be one way of spending aggressively.

With Rutschman entrenched for years to come, the O’s will only have to think about a backup and depth options. Robinson Chirinos got into 67 games in 2022 but is headed to free agency. In terms of in-house options, they added Anthony Bemboom to the 40-man roster just a few weeks ago to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Then there are waiver claims Cam Gallagher, Mark Kolozsvary and Aramis Garcia. If the O’s want to supplement that group, they’d be a candidate for a veteran signing, such as bringing back Chirinos or someone like Sandy León, though they could also ride with the many options they already have.

At first base, the club traded away Trey Mancini at the deadline, leaving the position in the hands of Ryan Mountcastle. His power took a step back this year, hitting just 22 home runs compared to 33 last year. Some of that is surely due to the club pushing back the left field wall, though Mountcastle was still above-average at the plate overall. His .250/.305/.423 batting line this year adds up to a wRC+ of 106, or 6% above league average. That’s fairly middle-of-the-pack production from the first base slot, meaning it’s a theoretical area they could look to upgrade. However, Mountcastle is still young, turning 26 in February, and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll likely get some time to find another gear. Jesús Aguilar, who was with the club for September and October, is reaching free agency, meaning there’s room for a backup/bench bat. Re-signing Aguilar would make some sense, though guys like Colin Moran will also be available.

The rest of the infield has some fluidity to it, thanks to the versatility of Gunnar Henderson. The club’s other top prospect, he debuted later in the season and hit .259/.348/.440 for a wRC+ of 125 in 34 games. He primarily lined up at third base in that time, though also saw some action at shortstop and second base. Jorge Mateo was the club’s primary shortstop this year, hitting at a below-average rate but still proving to be plenty useful due to his speed and defense. His .221/.267/.379 batting line only amounted to an 82 wRC+, but he also stole 35 bases and was unanimously praised by advanced defensive metrics. With Rougned Odor reaching free agency, second base is up for grabs, though there are internal options. Ramón Urías hit .248/.305/.414 for a wRC+ of 104 while playing second, third and short. Terrin Vavra spent some time at the keystone but also in the outfield.

Many people have opined that the O’s should target one of the big four free agent shortstops this winter (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), given their lack of payroll commitments and ability to shuffle their current infielders around. While that level of aggressiveness would certainly be exciting, there are reasons to suspect they will dedicate their resources elsewhere. Joseph Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday are all infielders and considered to be among the top 100 prospects in the game by FanGraphs, while Baseball America has Holliday and Jordan Westburg on their list. Holliday is just 18 and still years away from the majors, but Ortiz and Westburg both reached Triple-A in 2022, with Mayo getting as high as Double-A. The O’s might want a path available for these players to force their way into the big league picture throughout 2023.

The outfield also saw a prospect debut this year, as Kyle Stowers came up and hit .253/.306/.418 for a wRC+ of 107 in 34 games. He should slot next to Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as the club’s regular outfield mix. Anthony Santander will also be around, though he has the least defensive acumen of the group and could potentially see significant time as the designated hitter. Just like on the infield, there are future reinforcements coming on the grass. Colton Cowser is considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He got as high as Triple-A in 2022 and will likely make his MLB debut in 2023.

With lots of depth on the position player side of things, the O’s should have plenty of opportunities on the trade market. Perhaps they believe in Cowser enough to explore a trade of Hays, opening up the outfield picture a bit. With a bevy of infield prospects on the way, maybe they feel they can make a move there. Trading away someone at the big league level like Mateo or Urías is a possibility. But they could also trade away one of their many prospects for immediate help.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s less certainty. Seven different pitchers got into double digits in terms of games started, with a mixed bag of results. Austin Voth and Dean Kremer were the only two of the group to post ERAs under 4.00 while with Baltimore. In both cases, advanced metrics are skeptical of the results, with low BABIPs and high strand rates helping them to minimize the damage. Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins were each between 4.00 and 5.00 in the ERA department, with none of them getting strikeouts at an above-average rate. Bruce Zimmermann’s ERA came in at 5.99. Some of these guys are still young and getting their feet wet, which means they will continue to get chances going forward. But none of them were so strong in 2022 that they should be guaranteed a rotation spot at this point. There should be plenty of room for free agent additions here, even with top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of entering the picture. John Means should be a factor at some point in 2023, but it will depend on how he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April of this year.

The types of free agents that they target will depend on exactly how significant the payroll increase will actually be. The top of the market will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. It would certainly be surprising to see the O’s shopping in that aisle, though there’s no real reason they couldn’t do it. If they aren’t willing to be quite that aggressive, they could look to Kodai Senga, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger and Nathan Eovaldi as solid middle-of-the-rotation options. If they decide to stick with one-year deals, they will likely be looking at guys like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies and others of that ilk. It could go in many different ways, but the O’s have virtually no payroll commitments and plenty of room in the rotation. The big question will be how bold they want to be.

Turning to the bullpen, this was a strength for the O’s this season. The club’s relievers posted a collective 3.49 ERA this year, ninth-best among MLB teams, even though they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker were some of the relievers to show promising results. However, reliever performance is notoriously volatile and the O’s don’t really have a veteran presence in the ’pen. Dillon Tate, who turns 29 in May and has just over three years of service time, is the old hand of the crew. It would be plenty sensible for the club to add a guy who’s been around for a bit, both for on-field performance and for mentoring capabilities. Players like Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle shouldn’t cost too much but would fit nicely, though there’s also nothing really stopping the O’s from splurging on Edwin Díaz or Kenley Jansen.

Ultimately, the O’s are a grand unknown until we see what Elias has in mind. Since taking over, he’s been extremely conservative with spending on the big league roster, avoiding all multi-year deals while focusing on acquiring and developing prospects. It seems like now is a good time to make a shift and start focusing on the major league level, but we don’t have a barometer for what that will look like. They still have many exciting prospects on the way, meaning they could continue with modest deals while waiting for the farm to continue producing, or they could use that prospect stockpile for a bold trade. But with a wide open future payroll and plenty of young talent, the O’s could be big players in free agency or the trade market or both, if they want to be.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Orioles-centric chat on 10-21-22. Click here to view a transcript of that discussion.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2022 at 3:10pm CDT

It’s never a good sign when one offseason’s big need is still the biggest need next winter, as the Marlins continue to look for quality hitters.

Guaranteed Contracts

Sandy Alcantara, SP: $51MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $21MM club option for 2027)
Avisail Garcia, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
Jorge Soler, OF: $24MM through 2024 (Soler has opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 seasons)
Miguel Rojas, SS: $4.5MM through 2023
Richard Bleier, RP: $3.75MM through 2023 (includes $250K buyout of $3.75MM club option for 2024)

Total 2023 commitments: $41.8MM
Total future commitments: $125.95MM

Option Decisions

Joey Wendle, IF: $6.3MM mutual option for 2023, $75K buyout if Marlins decline (Wendle is still under arbitration control)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Joey Wendle (5.088): $5.4MM (if mutual option is declined)
Garrett Cooper (5.053): $4.1MM
Dylan Floro (5.053): $4.2MM
Brian Anderson (5.031): $5.2MM
Jacob Stallings (4.149): $3.3MM
Pablo Lopez (4.093): $5.6MM
Tanner Scott (4.059): $2.7MM
Elieser Hernandez (4.051): $1.8MM
Jon Berti (3.168): $2.4MM
Cole Sulser (3.028): $1MM
Jeff Brigham (3.010): $800K
Jesus Luzardo (2.165): $2MM
Non-tender candidates: Anderson, Brigham

Other Financial Commitments

$30MM owed to the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade (money to be paid out in 2026-28)

Free Agents

None

Derek Jeter’s surprise departure as the Marlins’ CEO back in February ended up being a bad omen for the team’s season, as Miami stayed on the outskirts of the playoff race until July, before struggling to a 69-93 record and fourth place in the NL East. Along the way, some other front office personnel (largely Jeter’s hires) also left the organization, and news broke at the end of the season that Don Mattingly wouldn’t be returning for an eighth year as the manager.

The search for Mattingly’s replacement is ongoing, with such names as Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol cited as two of an unknown number of candidates. It remains to be seen what direction Miami’s search might take, though Espada or Grifol would both present a fresh voice from outside the organization, which might be just what the Marlins need to help get things on track.

In fairness to Mattingly, however, he was far from the root problem with the club, as the Marlins again had one of the league’s worst offenses. Miami’s team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, home runs, runs scored, and RBI total were all lower in 2022 than in 2021, despite how the Fish tried to upgrade their lineup last winter. Unfortunately for the Marlins, Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings all hit poorly, with Soler (98 wRC+) the only one even close to league-average offensive production. With Garcia and Stallings delivering negative-fWAR production, the quartet combined for only 0.6 fWAR, with that number further impacted by Garcia, Soler, and Wendle all missing significant time on the injured list.

Injuries were a problem in general for Miami, most notably the stress fracture in Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s back that ended up halting the second baseman’s season on June 28. Chisholm was playing some excellent baseball at the time of his injury, hitting .254/.325/.535 with 14 homers over 241 plate appearances. Though he already has a pretty lengthy injury history during his short MLB career, Chisholm will return as the centerpiece of Miami’s lineup in 2023, and is one of only a few Marlins seemingly assured of a spot on the team.

Beyond Chisholm at second base, Garcia looks to be the regular right fielder and Soler will get time as both a left fielder and DH. The Marlins can only hope that Garcia and Soler can bounce back next year, as neither player is a realistic trade candidate (barring a swap for another team’s undesirable contract) in the wake of their poor seasons. Soler can opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, but there’s no chance he’ll walk away from his remaining $24MM owed this offseason, as he wouldn’t be able to match that salary on the open market.

It also doesn’t look like Stallings is going anywhere, as it seems probable that Stallings and Nick Fortes will be the primary catching duo. Fortes’ .230/.304/.392 slash line over 240 PA wasn’t extraordinary, but it was still markedly better than Stallings’ production, so the Marlins might end up deploying more of a timeshare behind the plate than a strict starter/backup situation.

2022 was such a rough year both offensively and defensively for Stallings that it’s easy to forget he was a sought-after trade chip at this time last year, and the Marlins had to surrender a notable package of three young players to acquire him from the Pirates in November. It would take even more of a trade haul to land, say, Sean Murphy from the A’s or any of Alejandro Kirk/Gabriel Moreno/Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays this winter, so another splashy deal might not be in the works if the Marlins do want a catching upgrade. Free agent Willson Contreras would seem to be out of their price range, but someone like Gary Sanchez might be feasible, or perhaps an Omar Narvaez or Mike Zunino if the Marlins wanted to take a shot on catchers who have been good hitters in the past but are coming off poor seasons.

Catcher is one of many positions that are in a state of flux for the Marlins. While the team has pretty much the entire 2022 position-player core under team control for 2023, most of those options simply weren’t good enough last year, and the Marlins may just be ready to move on from some players who have been in the organization for some time.

It’s possible that general manager Kim Ng might approach this group as a collective backup plan. Any of Stallings, Fortes, Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, or even youngsters Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez could feasibly be in Miami’s Opening Day lineup….or on another team’s roster via trade, should Ng find a quality upgrade at any of these positions who brings better speed or contact. While the Marlins aren’t going to unload this entire group, it also doesn’t seem likely that all of the aforementioned seven players will still be in Miami next season.

De La Cruz and Sanchez are the most likely to return, given their youth, years of team control, and the lack of certainty over Soler and Garcia in the outfield. Center field also isn’t an easy position to fill, so since Sanchez can at least play passable defense at the position, the Marlins may be inclined to give him another shot at establishing himself at the MLB level.

Having both Wendle and versatile speedster Jon Berti gives Ng some flexibility in how she addresses the position player side of the roster, even if Wendle and Berti might both be best suited for super-sub roles than as true everyday players. The Marlins will decline their end of Wendle’s mutual option, yet the utilityman would still be arbitration-eligible through 2023 and will likely again be part of the infield picture despite his struggles last year. If the Fish did want to move on from Wendle, youngsters Jordan Groshans or Charles Leblanc could take on bigger roles in the infield mix.

Cooper, Rojas, and Anderson are all free agents after the 2023 season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Fish non-tender Anderson this winter after two consecutive injury-plagued and non-productive seasons. This could make third base a particular target area, if the Marlins wanted to go beyond a Wendle/Berti/Groshans fallback plan.

Rojas has been a team leader for years, and was still an excellent defensive shortstop despite playing with a significant wrist injury for over two months. It should be noted the Marlins were at least open to the idea of dealing the shortstop last summer since Rojas’ name was floated in trade talks with the Yankees, but since shortstop is a harder position to fill, Miami might just count on Rojas regaining some hitting stroke once healthy.

Cooper has also been a speculated name in trade rumors in the past, yet his checkered injury history likely played some role in why he has remained with the Marlins. It could be that the first baseman again stays put just because the Marlins need hitting, and Cooper has been a pretty consistent bat when healthy — he was even an All-Star in 2022 before being waylaid by injuries and a lengthy slump in the second half. With Lewin Diaz reportedly no longer seen as a viable regular, retaining Cooper might be the easiest way for Miami to address first base.

Gauging the size of the Marlins’ overhaul will also depend on how much Ng has to spend this winter. Owner Bruce Sherman bumped the payroll from around $57MM in 2021 to just under $80MM in Opening Day payroll in 2022, though this increase was rather modest (perhaps too modest for Jeter’s liking, according to some reports) and still left the Marlins among the sport’s lowest spenders. Sherman is apparently willing to boost the payroll a little more this winter, though the size of that increase isn’t known, and it’s probably safe to assume that Miami isn’t suddenly going to be making nine-figure contract bids.

If the Garcia/Soler signings have made ownership wary of free-agent spending, that again leaves the trade market as perhaps Miami’s best route for significant roster help. Since the Fish still possess one of baseball’s more enviable collections of young pitchers, Miami is reportedly open to discussing anyone besides Sandy Alcantara or top prospect Eury Perez.

It is safe to assume that the Marlins would prefer to deal more unproven arms than, say, frequent trade target Pablo Lopez, even if Lopez would bring back a nice return. Selling high on Edward Cabrera or Jesus Luzardo might be more feasible, as both pitchers have a lot of talent but have also already had injury problems early in their careers. Moving either Trevor Rogers or Elieser Hernandez would be more of a sell-low, but Rogers in particular still has trade value despite a rough 2022 performance.

There is a bottom to this pitching depth, as the Marlins aren’t going to start offloading too many arms that are ticketed for spots in their own rotation. The “you can never have too much pitching” mantra also applies, considering that Miami’s depth took some injury hits with Max Meyer’s Tommy John surgery and Sixto Sanchez’s ongoing shoulder troubles. In general, however, Ng has plenty of options to weigh in considering pitching trades, as Miami’s variety of arms could bring back anything from All-Star caliber bats to more building blocks for the future.

It also helps to have an ace like Alcantara on hand as the rotation’s stabilizing force. The right-hander was the Marlins’ other big expenditure of the 2021-22 offseason, as Miami inked Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension that covered his three arbitration-eligible years and at least his first two free agent years. Alcantara responded to his security by delivering the best season of his career, posting a 2.28 ERA over a league-high 228 2/3 innings.

Extensions probably don’t figure to be a big part of Miami’s offseason business until the later stages of Spring Training, though it is possible the Fish could try to lock up Lopez if he isn’t dealt. Extending Chisholm is another possibility, yet the Marlins might prefer to see the second baseman get at least one healthy year on his record before making a long-term commitment.

While the Marlins got good results from their rotation last year, the bullpen was much more inconsistent. Major additions might not be in the offing, however, due to cost, the number of young starters in the system who could be eased into the majors via bullpen work, and because the Marlins could just count on some injured arms having healthier years. Dylan Floro is the incumbent favorite for the closer’s job, as Tanner Scott held the job for much of 2022 but had too much trouble avoiding walks.

With the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all still looking like contenders, it will be tough for Miami to make a lot of headway in the NL East. The Marlins’ pitching corps will always give them a chance, and getting even closer to league-average hitting might help the club make some noise next year. With this in mind, expect the Marlins to be one of the league leaders in trade speculation this winter, linked to any number of notable bats on the rumor mill. More clarity on the payroll situation would also help, as the ability to add even a Soler-sized contract would help expand the options available to the front office.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2022 at 8:58am CDT

The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM

Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Jordan Montgomery (5.153): $10.1MM
Jack Flaherty (5.006): $5.1MM
Tyler O’Neill (4.059): $5.1MM
Tommy Edman (3.114): $4.3MM
Chris Stratton (5.100): $3.5MM
Alex Reyes (5.056): $2.85MM
Dakota Hudson (4.062): $2.7MM
Ryan Helsley (3.105): $2.4MM
Jordan Hicks (5.000): $1.6MM
Génesis Cabrera (3.011): $1.2MM
Andrew Knizner (3.021): $1MM

Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM

Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera

Free Agents

José Quintana, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina (retired), Albert Pujols (retired), Corey Dickerson, T.J. McFarland, Aaron Brooks

The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.

The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.

Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things much closer to the vest. The 41-year-old has been a fixture on the St. Louis roster for nearly two decades. He’s a free agent again, and while it’s impossible to envision him playing anywhere else, Wainwright has yet to declare whether he plans to continue pitching. If he wants to return, there’s no question the Cards would carve out a rotation spot yet again. He’s coming off another successful year, posting a 3.71 ERA over 191 2/3 innings. He and the Redbirds agreed to a $17.5MM extension last offseason, and it’s easy to envision another one-year deal in that range.

Wainwright told reporters after the season we’d “know pretty soon” whether he was returning, teasing that he was already aware of his decision (link via Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch). That doesn’t seem likely to drag too deep into the offseason, while the Cardinals biggest question has to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Nolan Arenado is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one which should see him compete with corner infield mate Paul Goldschmidt for MVP support. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of the final five years and $144MM on his contract at the start of the offseason.

Arenado forewent an opt-out chance last year, telling Goold it “was always the plan” to stay in St. Louis long-term at that time. The seven-time All-Star was coming off a relative down season in 2021, however, and it wasn’t clear he’d have topped the six years and $179MM remaining on his deal at that point. After this year’s incredible showing on both sides of the ball, he’d certainly beat $144MM as a free agent if his main priority were to maximize his earnings. Freddie Freeman received a six-year, $162MM deal (albeit with deferrals that knocked down its net present value) heading into his age-32 season coming off a less impressive platform year. Arenado would figure to top that mark were he a free agent.

The nine-time Gold Glover hasn’t tipped his hand this time around, but he’s consistently maintained his love for both St. Louis and the Cardinals organization. After the Cards were eliminated, he reiterated to reporters he’s “really loved it here” and added “hopefully we can figure (the contract) out” (via Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV).

It’s certainly possible Arenado decides not to pursue his greatest earning potential and sticks with an organization with which he’s clearly happy. That could take the form of just opting in to his existing deal or maybe a preemptive contract restructure. Arenado is slated to make just $15MM in the final season of his current deal. If St. Louis agreed to make his 2027 salary more commensurate with the $32.25MM average annual value of the deal’s next four years, perhaps that’d strike a balance between rewarding his excellent season while preserving continuity.

The Cardinals have plenty of breathing room financially to rework Arenado’s deal if necessary. According to the Associated Press, the Rockies will owe the Cards $16MM next season regardless of Arenado’s opt-out decision, as agreed upon in the 2021 trade that sent him to St. Louis. Colorado would send an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out. With the Rox on the hook for such a notable portion of next year’s salary, the Cardinals would only have roughly $54.5MM in guaranteed commitments (subtracting the money they’d receive from Colorado) if Arenado opts out.

They’re likely to allocate another $35-40MM to a loaded arbitration class, but that’d still leave them with less than $100MM in player expenditures. St. Louis has opened the past two seasons with a player payroll north of $150MM, so they could absolutely accommodate a hefty Arenado deal next year. Only Goldschmidt ($26MM), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) and Giovanny Gallegos ($5.5MM) are on guaranteed deals by 2024, so there shouldn’t be much long-term concern about keeping Arenado around.

That’s also true because the Cards will retain much of their remaining roster. Goldschmidt will be back at first base, while Tommy Edman is arbitration-eligible for three more seasons to take one middle infield spot. Edman is a decent hitter and one of the game’s best defenders at either second base or shortstop. He’ll certainly be in the lineup at one of those spots for manager Oliver Marmol, but there’s at least a chance for the Cardinals to look outside the organization for middle infield help.

St. Louis sat out a loaded free agent shortstop class last offseason, counting on Paul DeJong to return to form offensively. He did not, hitting a career-worst .157/.245/.286 over 237 MLB plate appearances. The Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A midway through the year, and while he performed fairly well there, he didn’t carry that over after returning to the majors for the season’s final two months. With $11MM remaining on his contract, taking the form of a $9MM 2023 salary and a $2MM buyout on a ’24 club option, DeJong will be tough to move. Maybe the Cardinals consider a swap of undesirable deals for a position of greater need — speculatively speaking, a deal with the Angels involving catcher Max Stassi could match up financially while making sense with each team’s roster outlook — but it’s also possible St. Louis just releases DeJong and eats the money. At the very least, his streak of five straight Opening Day starts at shortstop will come to an end.

There’s again a loaded shortstop class in free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts locks to opt out of their current deals and join Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner. The Cardinals long-term financial flexibility means they could plausibly kick the tires on that group. However, signing one of the top shortstops would be out of character for an organization that has only once gone beyond $100MM on a free agent contract (seven years and $120MM to retain Matt Holliday in 2009-10) and has never signed a player for more than $130MM. Correa and Turner would shatter the franchise record outlay, and Bogaerts and Swanson shouldn’t have much trouble topping that figure themselves.

If Arenado opts out and signs elsewhere, a run at the top free agent shortstops would appear more realistic. If he stays, then the Cards could look to trade possibilities like the Guardians’ Amed Rosario or stick with Edman at shortstop while giving second base to a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Gorman is a former first-rounder and top prospect; he has huge power but notable strikeout issues and isn’t an ideal fit in the middle infield. Donovan was a less heralded prospect but finished seventh in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .394 on-base percentage as a rookie. He worked in a bat-first utility role and may not be a great defender at the keystone either, but he looks like the kind of excellent contact hitter the Cardinals have excelled at developing over the years.

There’s not a huge need for an overhaul in the outfield. Corey Dickerson will probably walk in free agency, leaving the Cards with a group of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and breakout prospect Alec Burleson. Trading Harrison Bader at this past deadline subtracted an elite defender from the mix, but Carlson rated well in his half-season of center field work. The Cardinals seem committed to him as a franchise center fielder, and the others give them a balanced group of corner outfield/designated hitter options from which to choose. O’Neill had a down year after a standout 2021 campaign, but Nootbaar took a step forward and looks like a potential everyday player. Perhaps the Cardinals look for a glove-first backup to upgrade over Ben DeLuzio in a bench role, but this doesn’t look like a spot for a big investment.

That’d be particularly true if Arenado sticks around, since he’d lock down third base for the long haul. 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the sport’s top prospects as a potential impact power bat and is fresh off a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He’s played primarily third base in the minors but has gotten increasing work in the corner outfield. If Arenado and Goldschmidt are under contract for the next two-plus seasons, the corner outfield/DH is the easiest path to at-bats for Walker once he’s ready, which could be as soon as the middle of next season.

The position the Cardinals will need to address from outside the organization is catcher. For the first time in almost two decades, it won’t be Molina’s job. Andrew Knizner hasn’t shown himself capable of being Molina’s heir apparent as once hoped. He could stick around in a backup role, but he shouldn’t be expected to assume the #1 job. Prospect Iván Herrera hit .268/.374/.396 in 65 Triple-A games at age 22, earning a very brief big league look in the process. He’s a potential long-term option, but it’d probably be too risky to count on him as the top catcher for a win-now 2023 team.

Free agency doesn’t offer many obvious solutions. Longtime division rival Willson Contreras is the standout at the position. The Cardinals are a viable suitor for Contreras, but he’s more of a bat-first player and would be an atypical fit for an organization that has placed such a strong premium on defense. Signing Contreras, who’ll receive a qualifying offer, would also require forfeiting an amateur draft choice. Other than Contreras, Christian Vázquez may be the only free agent backstop who’s a lock to land a regular job, while Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino could be glove-first stopgaps to Herrera. The A’s Sean Murphy, who’s projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary and controllable through 2025, would be the prize of the trade market at the position. If the Cardinals were inclined to make a splash, it’s easy to envision the A’s having interest in big league ready players like Gorman and Burleson.

St. Louis could poke around the trade market for controllable starting pitching as well, although they won’t enter the offseason with as pressing a rotation need as most teams. Miles Mikolas is under contract for an additional season, while deadline pickup Jordan Montgomery will be back for his final year of arbitration. St. Louis signed Matz to a four-year free agent deal last winter. Injuries contributed to a rough first season, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back. Wainwright would obviously have a rotation spot if he wants to return.

There’s a bit of uncertainty at the back end, but the Cardinals have options. Jack Flaherty has shown top-of-the-rotation potential in the past and is eligible for arbitration a final time. He’s lost most of the past year and a half to shoulder issues, but he’ll certainly be tendered a contract with a relatively modest projected $5.1MM arbitration salary. It’s possible Mozeliak and his staff gauge the trade market on Flaherty, but he wouldn’t garner a huge return and seems likelier to be on the Cards roster come Opening Day. If healthy, he figures to have a rotation spot.

There’s enough uncertainty with Flaherty and Matz the Cardinals could look for a depth option at the back end. Midseason trade pickup José Quintana pitched well enough down the stretch St. Louis tabbed him as the Game One starter for their Wild Card series. He’ll be a free agent and may have pitched himself beyond the Cards’ comfort range financially, but there’s a deep free agent market of innings-eating starting pitchers this winter. Players like Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly or Kyle Gibson figure to land affordable one or two-year contracts.

Adding another starter, particularly if Wainwright does opt for retirement, would have the added benefit of allowing St. Louis to pencil Andre Pallante into the bullpen. He worked as a swingman as a rookie and was a valuable ground-ball specialist. He’s an internal rotation option but could fit better in multi-inning relief. That’s also true of Dakota Hudson, who struggled enough as a starter he was optioned back to Triple-A late in the year. With a projected $2.7MM arb salary, Hudson could also be traded for a minimal return or just cut loose altogether.

At the back end of the bullpen, flamethrowing Ryan Helsley has broken out as one the game’s best relievers. The ever-consistent Gallegos joins him as a high-leverage option, and he was rewarded with a late-season two-year extension. Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes have been inconsistent, largely due to injuries, but they’ve shown the potential to be high-leverage relievers at their best. Reyes missed all of 2022 and could be non-tendered, but the Cards could roll the dice on a $2.85MM salary depending on his recovery from May shoulder surgery. Chris Stratton came over from the Pirates in the Quintana deal and could factor in as well, although a projected $3.5MM salary might be rich for a player who didn’t make the team’s playoff roster.

There’s a bit of uncertainty from the left side, but the Cards again have options. Packy Naughton and former first-rounder Zack Thompson were serviceable. Génesis Cabrera had a brutal 2022 season but is only projected for a $1.2MM arbitration salary. He still throws in the mid-upper 90s and has taken high-leverage innings in the past. There’s room for another left-handed arm, particularly if the Cards move on from Cabrera, but adding there feels like more of a luxury than a necessity.

That’s true for much of the roster, which boasts a few star players and the Cardinals’ typical stockpile of depth. All eyes in St. Louis early in the offseason will be on Arenado. If he opts out and surprisingly signs with a different team, the Cards could find themselves in position for major turnover. If he stays in St. Louis, as most anticipate he will, the offseason figures to be primarily about preserving continuity — although they’ll have to make a change at catcher for the first time in 20 years regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22. Click here to view the transcript of that discussion.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Center Field

By Anthony Franco | October 19, 2022 at 2:43pm CDT

MLBTR continues to go around the diamond to check in on the upcoming free agent market. In recent weeks, we’ve looked into the catchers and gone around the infield/corner outfield. Today, we’ll turn our attention to a center field class that falls off sharply after its top duo.

Tier Of His Own

Aaron Judge (31 years old next season)

What more can be said about Judge’s 2022 campaign? It was an all-time offensive performance. Judge hit 62 home runs, cementing himself in the history books and connecting on 16 more longballs than anyone else in the game this season. He slugged .686, the highest mark for a qualified hitter in a full schedule since 2004. Judge also led all qualified hitters this season in on-base percentage (.425) and finished fifth in batting average (.311). He’s the sport’s preeminent slugger, owner of an obscene 60.9% hard hit rate. Judge is also tremendously patient and has gotten some early-career strikeout concerns very much in check.

As far as 2023 goes, few players project to be more impactful. He’ll be the top overall player on the free agent market, and he’s in position to land one of the largest deals in major league history. The primary factor working against Judge is that he’s a bit on the older side for a first-time free agent, heading into his age-31 campaign. That’ll likely keep him from landing a decade-long commitment, but he has a chance to set the average annual value record for a position player over an eight or nine-year term.

There’s no question about Judge’s offensive potential, although he’s not likely to be a long-term fit in center fit. A natural right fielder, he played more center field for the Yankees this season due to the roster composition. He held his own, with public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average all pegging him as a hair better than par. Judge’s 6’7″, 280-plus pound build isn’t a traditional fit for center field, but he’s a good athlete and consistently posts plus defensive marks in right field. Teams are pursuing Judge primarily for what he can do in the batter’s box, but he’s a defensive asset as well and demonstrated this year he’s capable of manning center field if needed, at least early in the deal. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer, although it’s unlikely to have an impact on his market.

Clear #2

Brandon Nimmo (30)

Nimmo took more than five years to reach the majors after going in the first round of the 2011 draft. While it took him some time to get to the big leagues, he almost immediately hit the ground running and has been a productive player throughout his Mets tenure. Nimmo has posted well above-average offensive rate stats in every year since 2017, with an on-base percentage of .367 or better in each season of his career. While he’s never topped 17 homers, he’s settled in as an excellent top-of-the-lineup table setter. Since the start of 2020, only five qualified hitters (Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge and Paul Goldschmidt) have been better than Nimmo at reaching base.

The main knock on Nimmo have never been about his productivity on a rate basis, but rather his lack of volume. He’s dealt with a number of injuries throughout his professional career, and he entered the 2022 campaign with just one 400+ plate appearance season on his resume. He stayed healthy through all of 2022, though, tallying a personal-high 151 games played and 673 trips to the plate. Teams may still have some lingering trepidation about investing in a player who spent time on the injured list in every full season of his career before this one, but he hits the market having proven himself capable of performing at a high level over 162 games.

Like Judge, Nimmo has spent extended stretches of his career in the corner outfield. He’s played almost exclusively up the middle the past two years, however, and he’s proven himself an adept defender. Public metrics unanimously had him as an above-average center fielder in 2021. Those estimators were more divided in 2022, with DRS pegging him a few runs below average while Statcast had him as six runs above par. At the very least, he looks like an adequate defensive center fielder, and some teams might see him as a plus. Nimmo is somewhat quietly one of the better outfielders in the sport, and he could be rewarded for his excellent platform season with a nine-figure deal. He’ll receive and reject a QO.

Players Coming Off Down Years

Adam Duvall (34)

Duvall hit 38 home runs a season ago, but he managed just 13 round-trippers in 315 trips to the plate this year. Duvall strikes out a fair amount and rarely draws walks, leading to an on-base percentage of .301 or lower in each of the past three years. He’s a low-OBP slugger who plays plus corner outfield defense at his best. The Braves relied upon him for a career-high 382 innings of center field work this year. Public metrics felt he held his own up the middle, but he’ll be 34 next season and his disappointing offensive year was cut short in July when he underwent surgery on his left wrist.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)

Bradley is a former Gold Glove winner and was one of the game’s top defensive outfielders at his peak. His offensive production has waxed and waned throughout his career, but he was an above-average hitter as recently as 2020. Bradley has unfortunately been among the game’s least effective hitters in each of the last two seasons, though. He followed up a .163/.236/.261 showing last year in Milwaukee with an only slightly improved .203/.255/.311 mark over 370 trips to the plate for the Red Sox and Blue Jays in 2022. Even with his defensive ability, he could be in minor league deal territory this winter.

Odúbel Herrera (31)

Herrera posted a serviceable .260/.310/.416 line with the Phillies in 2021, leading the Phils to bring him back as part of a spotty center field mix entering this season. The switch-hitter missed some time early due to an oblique strain and hit only .238/.279/.378 across 197 plate appearances. Philadelphia released him in early August, and he didn’t catch on elsewhere for the stretch run.

Lorenzo Cain (37)

Cain hit .179/.231/.234 in 43 games with the Brewers this year. Milwaukee released him in mid-June, shortly after he crossed the ten-year MLB service time threshold. Cain didn’t sign elsewhere and has spoken about how much he’s enjoyed spending additional time with his family. He hasn’t officially called it a career, and the respected veteran would presumably have some minor league opportunities if he wanted to give it another go, but it seems likely his playing days are behind him.

Depth Players

Brett Phillips (28)

Phillips is a plus defender at all three outfield spots. He owns one of the game’s top throwing arms and is an excellent baserunner. Yet he’s simply not been productive enough as a hitter to merit more than fifth outfield playing time, and he’s coming off a dismal .144/.217/.249 showing in 225 plate appearances split between the Rays and Orioles. Phillips went unclaimed on waivers in August and could be limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations.

Jonathan Davis (31)

Davis is a speed and defense oriented player who’s suited up with three teams over the past five years. He draws a fair number of walks but doesn’t provide much else offensively. A career .185/.291/.245 hitter over 171 games, he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Brewers last month.

Jason Heyward (33)

Heyward is still under contract for 2023, but the Cubs have already announced he’ll be released at the start of the offseason. Heyward simply never hit at anywhere near the level Chicago had anticipated when signing him to an eight-year, $184MM free agent deal heading into 2016. He’s a respected clubhouse presence and still a capable defender around the outfield grass, but he hits the market coming off a .204/.278/.277 showing in 48 games. It seems likely he’ll be limited to minor league offers, but the Cubs would be on the hook for all but the league minimum if Heyward cracks the majors with another team next year.

Albert Almora Jr. (29)

Another glove-first depth type, Almora was a regular for a few years with the Cubs early in his career. He tallied 235 plate appearances with the Reds this past season, his heaviest workload since 2019. Almora hit .223/.282/.349 and was released in September.

Magneuris Sierra (26)

Once a top prospect in the St. Louis and Miami systems, Sierra has long been of interest for his elite speed and defensive ability. He has zero power, however, yet to connect on a single homer in 278 MLB games. The resulting .228/.273/.272 career slash line has left him in journeyman territory. Sierra took 96 plate appearances with the Angels this year before being outrighted off the roster earlier this month.

Michael Hermosillo (28)

Hermosillo has played in the majors in each of the past five seasons, but he’s never gotten more than 31 games in any individual year. He hit .115/.250/.148 over 73 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, losing a large chunk of the season to a quad strain. Chicago outrighted him last month.

Steven Duggar (29)

Duggar was the primary center fielder for the Giants in 2021, posting respectable numbers despite a strikeout rate pushing 30%. He didn’t get much of a big league look this year, however, as he quickly landed on the injured list and was eventually traded to the Rangers. Duggar also suited up with the Angels briefly and posted a combined .153/.225/.222 line in 80 plate appearances between the three clubs. He was designated for assignment by the Halos in September and elected free agency after clearing waivers.

Lewis Brinson (28)

Brinson was a top prospect and twice at the center of a major trade before exhausting his rookie eligibility. Given a few extended runs by the Marlins, he never overcame dismal strikeout and walk numbers to fully tap into his athleticism and power potential. Brinson was limited to minor league offers last winter. He had a great showing in Triple-A — as he has throughout much of his career — and earned a 16-game look with the Giants late in the year. Brinson hit three homers but struck out in 14 of his 39 MLB plate appearances before being outrighted off the roster.

Jake Marisnick (32)

Marisnick has appeared in parts of nine straight major league seasons. The past three have been in fourth/fifth outfield duty, with his glove getting him on rosters despite significant strikeout issues. Marisnick played in 31 games with the Pirates this year, hitting .234/.272/.390. He was released in August and finished out the year on a minor league contract with the Braves, struggling over 17 Triple-A games.

Greg Allen (30)

Allen’s speed has been his primary asset throughout his big league tenure. He’s an excellent baserunner but has drawn mixed reviews for his center field defense and hasn’t hit much in the majors. A big 15-game showing with the Yankees in 2021 earned him 134 plate appearances with the Pirates this year, but he stumbled to a .186/.260/.271 line before being waived in September.

Billy Hamilton (32)

The speedy Hamilton had brief looks with the Marlins and Twins this year, often in a designated pinch-running capacity. A former everyday player and 50-steal threat during his early days in Cincinnati, Hamilton has bounced around the league in recent years.

Players With Contractual Options

Kevin Kiermaier (33), $13MM club option, $2MM buyout

The Rays are certain to buy Kiermaier out rather than pay the extra $11MM it’d take to bring him back. That’s only natural after his disappointing 2022 showing, in which he hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. Even as he’s gotten into his 30’s, Kiermaier has remained one of the sport’s preeminent defensive center fielders. Yet he’s also spent a fair amount of time on the injured list throughout his career, at least in part due to the highly aggressive play style that makes him such an electrifying defender. Kiermaier may well be the third-best center fielder on the market this year, but there’s obvious risk in signing a player whose game is so reliant on athleticism coming off hip surgery.

AJ Pollock (35), $13MM player option, $5MM buyout

Pollock had a tough first season in Chicago after heading over from the Dodgers in a pre-Opening Day trade. The veteran outfielder hit .245/.292/.389 with 14 homers over 527 plate appearances. By eclipsing 500 trips to the dish, he escalated the value of his option from its base $10MM to $13MM. Pollock had a nice September, but his slow start and age make it hard to see him topping the $8MM he’d have to forego to test the market. He’s likely to exercise his option and return to the South Siders.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstops, Corner outfielders

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