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MLBTR Poll: More Likely Comeback, Athletics or Yankees?

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Both American League Division Series move to their fourth games Thursday. That leaves a pair of AL clubs staring down elimination. The West-winning Athletics dropped the first two against the division-rival Astros but survived the first of three potential elimination games yesterday. The Yankees, meanwhile, are on the ropes after dropping two straight in their set with the top-seeded Rays.

Each of the A’s and Yankees will need to win the final two games of their upcoming series to advance to the ALCS. Oakland will turn to Frankie Montas this afternoon, while the Astros will counter with staff ace Zack Greinke. New York is relying on Jordan Montgomery tonight, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash will open with Ryan Thompson, presumably before turning to Ryan Yarbrough.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Can the Yankees’ high-powered offense overcome the Rays’ stellar pitching staff? Will the A’s star-studded bullpen right the ship and keep the Astros’ scorching lineup in check? Which team is more likely to dig themselves out of their current hole?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Rays Or Yankees?

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The top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays are set to “host” division rival New York Yankees in a playoff-bubble, 5-game, 5-day ALDS contest beginning on Monday night. Without days off, this series will function differently from divisional rounds of years past. The Rays and Yankees will both need to rely on their pitching depth to get through this series, starting with a barnburner in game one as Blake Snell takes on Gerrit Cole.

The Rays are famous for relying on organizational depth, but throughout the course of the regular season they have the luxury of the railway between Triple-A and the big leagues to replenish the bullpen and keep fresh arms rotating into games. The Rays should still have plenty of depth to survive the five-game series if all goes according to plan, given 28-man rosters.

Still, expect to see a lot of different Rays’ arms cycling through games. Tampa starters went less than five innings per start during the regular season, and that’s true for their top trio as well as the rest of the staff. Tyler Glasnow will take the hill in game two, with Charlie Morton getting the start in game three, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter links). Glasnow, Morton, and Snell combined for an average of 4 2/3 innings per start during the regular season, and that’s not likely to change much during the playoffs, where each pitch registers as high-impact and stress levels reach season-highs.

In the bullpen, both the Rays and Yankees are used to relying on a number of different arms for high-leverage innings. That will be important if the series goes the distance. Yankees’ closer Aroldis Chapman probably carries the single biggest individual burden, but Zack Britton can expect at least equal usage coming out of the pen for stress outs in the middle-to-late innings. As they have all season, the Rays will go with a bullpen-by-committee approach, leaning heavily on the quartet of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and John Curtiss late in games.

On the offensive end, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris points out that the Rays strike out a lot and don’t homer very much, which isn’t a typically strong recipe for October. On the other hand, in a conversation with Lindsey Adler, he writes: “But what teams are we talking about? The Rays ran out 60 different lineups in 60 games! They called up Randy Arozarena and sent everyone running in September, and seemed like a different team.”

The Yankees, of course, have the advantage of Cole going in game one, who has a history of strong postseason starts. He’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in the game right now to provide length. That should get the Yankees off on the right foot. Plus, he’ll be backed by a potent offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weak spots. Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have proven their potency in the postseason. It’s a scary lineup, any way you slice it.

Still, the Rays have the best record in the American League, an 8-2 record against the Yankees, and a chip on their shoulder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides this quote from Kevin Kiermaier, “We’re a small-market team with a low payroll, not a whole lot of household names, but with a lot of very good, above-average, quality major-league baseball players. One through 28, or however many roster spots we’re allowed, we know we can play with anyone. We know we can beat anyone.”

The Rays 3.56 team ERA was 2nd-best in the American League, where the Yankees finished 8th. By FIP the gap closes a bit with the Rays finishing 3rd and the Yankees 7th. The Yankees led the Rays by just 0.4 offensive fWAR, though their 116 wRC+ as a team was the best mark in the American League. The Rays are no slouches in that department either, finishing fourth at 109 wRC+.

Austin Meadows has been a big part of that offense for Tampa Bay – at least in theory – and he’s working his way back to full health, per Toribio (via Twitter). Meadows might have the highest ceiling offensively in the Rays lineup, but it’s been a tough year for the outfielder, who managed just 36 games with a .205/.296/.371 line. He did not appear in their 2-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Without him, the Rays still have plenty of options, especially given the defensive prowess of Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, as well as the emergence of Arozarena, who could also continue to see time as the designated hitter.

As for the Yankees, they’ll be reliant as ever on an otherwordly offense that just continues to produce in key spots. Not even mentioned in their ridiculous collection of offensive talent above, DJ LeMahieu leads the way after winning the batting title in the America League. On the mound, Cole gives them a big-time punch in game one, but that could be his only appearance of the series. To pitch again, he’d have to come back on short rest in a potential game five. If the Yanks lose game one, it will certainly be interesting to see at what level of urgency they come to the park for game two. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ are likely to follow Cole in the rotation, though manager Aaron Boone hasn’t officially set the rotation yet. High-profile rookie Deivi Garcia could get the ball in a potential game four.

All of which is to say: who knows? This is perhaps the preeminent series of the divisional round, which is saying a lot considering we have four divisional match-ups ahead. What say you? Who is going to come out on top to face the winner of the Astros and Athletics on the other side of the bracket? Save your personal preferences for the comments – I want to know who will win this series.

(Poll link for app users)

Padres v. Cardinals: Who Will Advance?

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There is only one first-round playoff series remaining, and it will be decided tonight when the Padres and Cardinals complete their matchup in Game 3. The Padres entered with the far better record (37-23 against 30-28), but injuries to top starters Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger – who have been unavailable – have impacted the series.

With Lamet and Clevinger on the shelf, San Diego turned to Chris Paddack and Zach Davies in the first two games, but the pair struggled. The team’s now so short on options that it will tap reliever Craig Stammen as the opener in a bullpen game Friday. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will have Jack Flaherty on the hill. Flaherty went through a very disappointing regular season, though he’s only a year removed from serving as one of the league’s most valuable starters.

On the offensive side, the Fernando Tatis Jr.-led Padres finished the season with one of the game’s most potent attacks, ranking third in runs and fifth in wRC+. The Cardinals weren’t nearly as good (28th in runs, 19th in wRC+), but the Paul Goldschmidt-helmed outfit has outscored the Padres 16-15 in the series.

The game’s about to get underway. Which team do you expect to advance? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Sustainable Hitter Breakout

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The trade deadline is approaching. Heck, the postseason races are already taking shape. But it’s still exceedingly early in this oddest of MLB seasons. With the action unfolding on a tightened timeline, it’s more necessary than ever not to ignore the short-sample alerts.

That said, it’s hard to ignore some of the unexpected names near the top of the WAR leaderboard with a quarter of a (partial-) season in the bag. Each of these six guys ranks among the top twenty fWAR accumulators in baseball. Four of ’em have added more value to this point of the season than living legend Mike Trout.

So … which player is likeliest to sustain something approaching their early 2020 star turn? (In alphabetical order.)

JaCoby Jones, OF, Tigers: .333/.391/.786 through 46 plate appearances. The 28-year-old hadn’t done much with his first thousand or so MLB plate appearances, but he’s suddenly knocking the socks off of the ball. Though his K/BB numbers are about as shrug-worthy as before, Jones is suddenly showing a whole lotta slug. He’s in the top ten percent leaguewide in barrel percentage and hard contact rate.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: .373/.440/.567 through 75 plate appearances. An elite draft prospect, Lewis saw his development stunted by injuries. He’s now coming into his own, though it’s hard to look past that glaring .512 batting average on balls in play. There are a lot of strikeouts, too, though Lewis is also walking at a decent clip (10.7%). While Statcast isn’t impressed with how hard he hits the ball, it does credit him with a strong barrel percentage and good wheels.

Dylan Moore, OF, Mariners: .333/.388/.689 through 49 plate appearances. This looks to be a pretty clear instance of a nice dozen-game hot streak that’ll be hard to keep up. Moore is carrying a 30.6% walk rate and 4.1% K rate while benefiting from a hefty .423 BABIP. Then again, Moore is legitimately hammering the ball, ranking among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and exit velocity. Perhaps he’s on to something here.

Austin Slater, OF, Giants: .333/.450/.667 through 40 plate appearances. Slater is running and gunning thus far, logging three homers and four swiped bags while sporting a solid 12.5% walk rate. That 208 wRC+ really pops for a guy that contributes in other areas of the game. Slater has had his chances before and hadn’t ever put it all together. But he was quite good at Triple-A and held his own in the majors in 2019. Could he be turning into a quality big leaguer?

Donovan Solano, INF, Giants: .458/.476/.661 through 63 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily a whole new thing so much as a surprising continuation of a nice 2019 showing. But holy smokes, look at that batting average! It’s riding on a mind-blowing .520 BABIP … which follows a .409 mark from last year. Solano isn’t exactly mashing, but he sure is translating his contact ability into results — and not just because of good fortune. Statcast credits him with a 97th percentile expected batting average.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants: .306/.442/.629 through 77 plate appearances. Just another San Francisco superstar slugger, no big deal. Like Solano, Yaz 2.0 did turn in very good numbers last year. But we were all prepared to see him step back in 2020, right? Instead, there’s something all the more intriguing going on. Yasztrzemski has already drawn 15 walks to go with his 16 strikeouts on the season, providing yet more evidence that he has really figured things out.

So, which player is most likely to carry this forward? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Poll: Big-Budget Long-Term Payrolls

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Looking at long-range payroll commitments, there’s a fairly sizable gap between the top-five spenders and the number six club (the Padres, at a total of $396MM). Here’s that top-five:

Rank Team Total
1 Angels $651.00
2 Yankees $612.00
3 Dodgers $533.36
4 Nationals $488.68
5 Phillies $488.50

That list isn’t remotely surprising. Some other deep-pocketed teams have pared back or simply not yet agreed to blockbuster extensions with existing stars. The handful of teams listed above have each recently agreed to monster contracts with one or more superstars.

Looking at a team’s future outlook involves quite a bit more than its contractual commitments. We’d want to consider controllable young talent, the prospect pool, and a wide variety of business factors in assessing which organization is best-situated for the long haul.

Here, though, we’ll just focus on the deals that are already locked in. First, I’ll re-list each of those five teams’ eexisting commitments. Then, you will vote for the one that you’d most prefer to have were you operating a large-budget franchise. (Click on the links to expand the image.)

The Angels feature two mid-prime superstars, including the greatest player of this generation.

The Yankees have an ace, a former MVP who could still return to his former glory, and a group of quality players.

The Dodgers had only limited future commitments until they struck a bold deal to keep one of the game’s best players.

The Nationals are all-in on high-grade rotation pieces.

The Phillies spent big to pluck high-end talent from division rivals.

Which is the best slate of contract commitments? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Rockies V. Padres: Who’s More Likely To Make Playoffs?

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Neither Colorado nor San Diego entered the season as teams expected to contend for playoff berths, but both the Rockies and Padres have been among the National League’s best teams a week-plus into what will go down as a strange 2020 campaign. The NL West rivals met over the weekend, and the Rockies took two of three to vault them into first place in the division – yes, even ahead of the mighty Dodgers – with a 6-2 record. The Padres, who are trying to snap a 13-year playoff drought, are now a game back at 6-4.

When the dust settles at year’s end (if a full season actually happens), there’s little doubt that the Dodgers will be the top team standing in the NL West. Frankly, they’re too loaded to expect otherwise. But it would still be a major accomplishment for the Rockies or Padres to earn wild-card berths. Colorado’s not far removed from back-to-back playoff spots, having played meaningful October ball in 2017-18, though the team fell on hard times during a 71-win effort last season and did little to nothing to improve during the offseason. San Diego was pretty aggressive, meanwhile, though it entered the winter as a 70-win team with a similarly high hill to climb.

The fact that the league added three extra playoff teams in each league for 2020 obviously helps the causes of every club, especially those that have started well this year. The Rockies have charged to first in their division on the strength of some of the usual suspects (Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, German Marquez and Jon Gray), and they’ve done so despite struggles from team MVP Nolan Arenado. Surprisingly, though, veterans Daniel Murphy, Matt Kemp and Daniel Bard – whose best days seemed long gone when the season started – have picked up some of the slack.

The Padres are playing .600 ball in the early going thanks in no small part to continued marvelous performances from second-year stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, but they’ve also gotten excellent production from other sources. Outfielder and offseason acquisition Trent Grisham has been fantastic; so have currently injured first baseman Eric Hosmer and outfielder Wil Myers, both disappointments in recent years, as well as righty Dinelson Lamet. To the surprise of no one who has paid attention to his career, newcomer and outfielder Tommy Pham has also thrived. The Padres also sport an impressive bullpen on paper, though the unit’s off to a surprisingly poor start. Regardless, in order to upgrade their cast of pitchers, the Padres could pick from a deep well of prospects (MacKenzie Gore? Luis Patino?) if they need to bolster their roster in the next couple months.

It’s going to be interesting to see if either of these rival clubs will emerge as playoff teams in 2020. They’ve certainly begun well, but which one is more likely to keep up its current pace? (Poll link for app users)

Predict The NL West Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, so it’s time to wrap things up with the National League West.

The Dodgers have owned this division for some time now and are perhaps more laden with star-level talent than ever with Mookie Betts on board. Then again, they may be more vulnerable than ever in a short-season format. There’s a nice assembly of talent on the Diamondbacks roster, which includes an elite young player in Ketel Marte and a sturdy slate of veterans now highlighted by intra-division transferee Madison Bumgarner. Then again, you could argue that the Padres have the greatest capacity to surprise with their own budding legend in Fernando Tatis Jr., still-youthful star Manny Machado, and a potential-laden rotation. The Rockies have an excellent core unit in their own right and perhaps have more upside than is generally recognized. And while the Giants don’t really appear primed to compete, they managed to do so last year and still have a lot of players with lofty established performance ceilings at the game’s highest level — even if it has been a few years.

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The AL West Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL East, AL Central, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the American League West.

The Astros entered this season off three straight division titles, though they’ve undergone some major changes since winning the AL pennant in 2019. A sign-stealing scandal cost them general manager Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch, whom they replaced with James Click and Dusty Baker, respectively. On the field, they said goodbye to co-ace Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley in free agency. Their rotation suffered yet another massive blow this week when they placed reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander on the injured list with a forearm strain. He’s one of many injured Astros pitchers, and to make matters worse, the club has been without slugger and 2019 AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez because of the coronavirus.

Despite all the issues they’re facing, the Astros at least still boast an above-average roster. They don’t look like a juggernaut in their current state, though, and that could give a division rival a chance to pounce.

The Athletics, winners of 97 games in each of the prior two seasons, boast an eminently talented roster that seems as if it’ll present the greatest challenge for Houston. The Rangers and Angels look more like wild-card possibilities than teams capable of upending the Astros, though a 60-game season could make it more likely for either to pull off an upset. Probably not the case for the Mariners, who are retooling and have gotten to a 1-4 start. While five games isn’t enough of a sample size to bury or crown anyone, the M’s have gotten crushed in three of their defeats and entered Wednesday with the majors’ worst run differential at minus-21.

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The AL East Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL Central, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the American League East.

The Yankees have certainly been tabbed the favorite by most observers, but several key players have questionable injury histories and the short-season format opens the door for challengers. The Rays are perhaps the prime contender for a surprise, with a deep and versatile roster that’s far more talented than the payroll would suggest. Then again, we may all be overlooking the Red Sox, who have certainly shed some talent but still have several rather high-ceiling players. There’s a ton of young talent on the Blue Jays roster; maybe the team could surprise if those precocious performers develop ahead of schedule. It’s quite difficult to make a case for the Orioles, even in a pithy blurb, but … hey, they’re tied for the division lead at 2-1 entering play today!

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The NL East Division Winner

By | at

With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL Central and NL Central landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the National League East.

As is the case with the National League more broadly, the NL East looks like it could end up very tightly-packed from start to finish. The Braves have claimed back-to-back division titles and their star young core only figures to get better. Fresh off a World Series win, the Nationals still boast perhaps the game’s top starting rotation. Anthony Rendon’s defection is quite the loss, but the lineup is still chock-full of talent. The Mets, too, have a strong group of bats and an uber-ace in Jacob deGrom. Their defense is questionable and there’s some volatility on the pitching staff, yet there’s no denying the upside. The Phillies have a handful of high-end players but some uncertainty on the mound. It’s a bit more of a long shot in Miami, but the Marlins have built a high-upside young rotation and added a handful of solid veteran position players over the offseason.

Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users).

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