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MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel

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The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.

Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.

Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.

In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.

O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.

Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)

How much should Dansby Swanson make in 2021?
$6.0MM 43.38% (3,630 votes)
$6.7MM 30.44% (2,547 votes)
Doesn't matter because he's going to sign an extension. 26.17% (2,190 votes)
Total Votes: 8,367
How much should Mike Soroka make in 2021?
$2.8MM 45.11% (3,633 votes)
$2.1MM 31.20% (2,513 votes)
Doesn't matter, becuase he's going to sign an extension. 23.69% (1,908 votes)
Total Votes: 8,054

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Francisco Lindor Trade

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The Mets and Indians made perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason earlier this week. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco are now Mets. They represent the biggest pair of additions for a New York club that has been expected all offseason to pursue star-level talent.

Lindor, of course, was seen as a near-lock to be moved all winter. The Indians seemingly never came close to working out an extension with the four-time All-Star. With Lindor one season removed from hitting free agency, it looked apparent Cleveland would trade him away. Carrasco was less obviously going to be moved this winter, but it wasn’t a huge surprise the Indians parted with him, either. Carrasco’s two-year, $27MM deal (with a 2023 option) marked the biggest guaranteed contract on Cleveland’s books. Lindor’s projected arbitration range ($17.5MM — $21.5MM) would’ve easily been the Indians’ largest 2021 expense.

Each of Lindor and Carrasco remains a bargain at those rates relative to their on-field production. But Cleveland’s ownership has signaled a desire to cut payroll this winter; it wasn’t hard to foresee that coming via jettisoning the team’s highest-paid players. Cleveland’s estimated $40MM payroll, per Roster Resource, is now less than half the team’s 2020 season-opening outlay (prior to prorating).

While finances were an obvious element of the trade, it wasn’t a mere salary dump. The Indians brought in four young players, two of whom are immediate big leaguers. Amed Rosario is a former elite prospect who has been up and down over his first three-plus MLB seasons. Andrés Giménez was a highly-regarded farmhand himself and had a decent if unspectacular rookie year. The pair of prospects, right-hander Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene, are recent high school draftees. They rank 25th and 28th, respectively, in the Indians’ farm system at FanGraphs.

Turning things over to the readership, how did each team fare in this week’s blockbuster?

(poll links for app users)

Grade The Lindor Trade For The Mets.
A 79.15% (22,641 votes)
B 15.19% (4,346 votes)
C 3.11% (889 votes)
F 1.51% (432 votes)
D 1.04% (298 votes)
Total Votes: 28,606

 

Grade The Lindor Trade For The Indians.
C 41.03% (10,729 votes)
B 22.10% (5,777 votes)
D 20.79% (5,437 votes)
F 11.15% (2,915 votes)
A 4.93% (1,288 votes)
Total Votes: 26,146

 

MLBTR Poll: Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber’s Potential?

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In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.

While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.

Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.

Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.

But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.

At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.

The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).

Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.

All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?

Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?

Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber's Potential?
No 62.34% (5,781 votes)
Yes 37.66% (3,493 votes)
Total Votes: 9,274
(poll link for app users)

Schwarber's wRC+ in 2021 will be...
Between 100 wRC+ and 109 wRC+ 33.31% (2,307 votes)
Between 110 wRC+ and 119 wRC+ 29.13% (2,017 votes)
Under 100 wRC+ 18.12% (1,255 votes)
Between 120 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ 13.16% (911 votes)
Over 130 wRC+ 6.28% (435 votes)
Total Votes: 6,925
(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?

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Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window.  January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

Who will sign Tomoyuki Sugano?
Mets 21.99% (4,036 votes)
Giants 15.08% (2,768 votes)
Blue Jays 14.77% (2,710 votes)
Another MLB team 13.22% (2,425 votes)
Red Sox 11.98% (2,198 votes)
Nobody --- Sugano will remain in Japan 11.06% (2,030 votes)
Padres 7.93% (1,455 votes)
Rangers 3.97% (728 votes)
Total Votes: 18,350

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade

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Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.

In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.

For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.

Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.

(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)

Grade the Darvish trade for the Cubs
C 33.65% (8,506 votes)
D 25.49% (6,444 votes)
B 18.70% (4,728 votes)
F 15.69% (3,967 votes)
A 6.46% (1,634 votes)
Total Votes: 25,279
Grade the Darvish trade for the Padres
A 64.62% (15,251 votes)
B 27.79% (6,560 votes)
C 4.65% (1,098 votes)
F 1.49% (351 votes)
D 1.45% (342 votes)
Total Votes: 23,602

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Blake Snell Trade

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Not far removed from their first playoff season since 2006, the Padres have dominated headlines in Major League Baseball over the past couple days. They agreed to sign highly touted Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, and it’s possible they’ll follow it up by acquiring 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish from the Cubs before the day is out. And prior to reeling in Kim (and potentially Darvish), the Padres made a major addition to their rotation when they agreed to land left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays late Sunday night.

In Snell, the Padres are getting a 28-year-old former AL Cy Young winner (2018) who’s due a more-than-reasonable $39MM through 2023. Snell wasn’t able to replicate the numbers from his career season over the past two years, but he was hardly a slouch during that span. In his last season in Tampa Bay, which won the AL pennant, Snell threw 50 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with 11.34 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a personal-best 49.2 percent groundball rate, all while continuing to average upward of 95 mph on his fastball. The Padres’ hope is that Snell (and perhaps Darvish, if they’re able to complete that trade) will help replace righty Mike Clevinger – a blockbuster 2020 pickup who will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.

Meanwhile, although some may roll their eyes at the small-budget Rays for trading a reasonably priced, high-end starter in the wake of a World Series-bound year, it does appear they’ll receive a significant haul in this swap. The club’s slated to get two promising righties – Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox – as well as a pair of young catchers in Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt.

The 21-year-old Patino, who made a brief major league debut last season, was Baseball America’s 18th-best prospect entering the campaign; Wilcox was a third-round pick in last summer’s draft, but he was seen as a first-round talent – which led the Padres to give him a record bonus worth $3.3MM; Mejia was a star prospect in his own right in earlier years, though the 25-year-old hasn’t established himself as a quality major leaguer since he debuted in 2017; and Hunt, 22, looks like a top 100-caliber prospect now, per Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs.

All said, this looks like another win-now move for San Diego, which could emerge as a serious championship contender in 2021. On the other hand, in light of this deal, it’s easy to say the Rays will take a step back next year. However, it appears they got an impressive return, and considering the work the Rays’ front office has done with few financial resources, it may be wise to give them the benefit of the doubt.

How would you grade the trade? (Poll links for app users: Padres, Rays)

Grade the Snell trade for the Padres
A 55.66% (9,773 votes)
B 34.50% (6,057 votes)
C 7.57% (1,329 votes)
D 1.16% (204 votes)
F 1.12% (196 votes)
Total Votes: 17,559
Grade the Snell trade for the Rays
B 39.08% (6,531 votes)
A 27.64% (4,619 votes)
C 22.59% (3,775 votes)
D 6.43% (1,075 votes)
F 4.27% (713 votes)
Total Votes: 16,713

Which Teams Are The Best Fits For J.T. Realmuto?

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There’s a clear top pair of free agent position players available this winter: J.T. Realmuto and George Springer. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected five-year, $125MM terms for each, with only starter Trevor Bauer pegged for a higher guarantee. The Blue Jays and Mets are reportedly the strongest possibilities to land Springer, but Realmuto’s market has been less defined to this point. Which teams are in the best position to make a run at the catcher?

A nine-figure deal for Realmuto would be out of character for lower-payroll clubs like the Indians, Marlins, Brewers, Athletics, Pirates and Rays. We can fairly safely rule them out. The rebuilding Orioles aren’t going to make a win-now splash, and the Rangers are selling off pieces this winter.

There are a few more clubs that are generally expected or have already signaled a desire to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds could stand to upgrade at catcher, but discussions about their offseason have been about subtracting expensive talent, not adding it. The same is true of the division-rival Cubs. There haven’t been many offseason rumblings about the Diamondbacks or Rockies. Both could make sense for Realmuto in theory but it would register as a real surprise if either put forth that kind of offer. The Cardinals are engaged in a contract stalemate with franchise icon Yadier Molina, who would come significantly cheaper. They’re not expected to pivot to Realmuto if talks with Molina fall through.

A handful of others have settled catching situations already. The Mets made sense at the start of the offseason but signed James McCann instead. The Royals and Giants aren’t going to sign Realmuto and displace their respective faces of the franchise. Yasmani Grandal is perhaps the only other catcher in the sport close to Realmuto’s level, so the White Sox are all set. Turning to the remaining thirteen teams:

  • Angels: The Angels have very little certainty behind the plate in Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom. There’s obvious room for an upgrade there, although the Angels are already projected by Roster Resource for a 2021 payroll just $15MM shy of last year’s figure. They still need to upgrade the pitching staff, so it’s possible they roll with a lower-cost group at catcher.
  • Astros: The Astros have bigger needs to address in the outfield and bullpen. They were ruled out as potential Realmuto suitors early in the offseason and are instead in advanced discussions with Jason Castro.
  • Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have seemingly been linked to every big ticket free agent and trade possibility (Realmuto included) this winter. They’re clearly looking to add high-end talent to help the team take a leap into permanent contention, but that might take the form of a Springer signing instead. Young catchers Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have promise but might not have enough of a track record for a win-now team. They could be moved if Toronto added Realmuto.
  • Braves: This seems highly unlikely. Travis d’Arnaud was excellent in 2020 and GM Alex Anthopolous has shied away from long-term deals since taking over in Atlanta.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers have the flexibility to get into the mix for any elite player. But Will Smith looks like one of the game’s best young catchers. Theoretically, L.A. could sign Realmuto and trade Smith to upgrade other areas of the roster, but that’d be a real stretch.
  • Mariners: The Mariners could be an interesting dark horse to make a splash this offseason. There’s room on the books, particularly long-term, and the Seattle front office has spoken of a desire to compete in 2021 after a few seasons of rebuilding. Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens are a decent in-house tandem, so a Realmuto signing is a longshot. But the Mariners are in position to pounce on players they consider special talents and Realmuto certainly qualifies.
  • Nationals: The Nationals have been in contact with Realmuto’s camp this winter. He’d be a massive upgrade over the team’s current pairing of Yan Gomes and Tres Barrera. It’s uncertain at best, however, that ownership will give GM Mike Rizzo the financial leash to again dish out a market-setting contract for a top free agent.
  • Padres: San Diego acquired Austin Nola at last year’s deadline and seems more likely to look for starting pitching with Mike Clevinger out for 2021 due to a Tommy John surgery.
  • Phillies: Realmuto’s former team doesn’t have an obvious replacement if he departs. They tagged him with a qualifying offer and have reportedly made a contract proposal.
  • Red Sox: Boston is generally expected to prioritize pitching this winter. Christian Vázquez is one of the sport’s better catchers, so this would be a surprise. The Red Sox have the spending capacity to get into the Realmuto mix, but there’s no indication they have any intention of doing so.
  • Tigers: Detroit has no in-house certainty at catcher and the long-term books are pretty open. The Tigers aren’t immediate contenders, making this a weird fit, but the front office could at least explore adding one of the game’s best catchers to work with the prized young pitchers leading the rebuild.
  • Twins: As with the Dodgers and Red Sox, Minnesota could theoretically sign Realmuto and trade their quality in-house options (Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers, in this case) for help elsewhere on the roster. But again, it doesn’t seem especially likely.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have been focused on re-signing DJ LeMahieu to this point. If LeMahieu winds up signing elsewhere, a Realmuto pursuit would be plausible. The Yankees tendered a contract to Gary Sánchez but it’s anyone’s guess what kind of production they can expect after his dismal 2020 season.

The Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Phillies and Yankees seem like the strongest candidates to sign Realmuto, although there are a few long-shot scenarios that could land him in other cities. We’ll turn things over the readership to predict his ultimate destination.

Where Will J.T. Realmuto Sign This Winter?
Phillies 42.49% (5,243 votes)
Blue Jays 17.04% (2,102 votes)
Angels 13.07% (1,612 votes)
Nationals 12.33% (1,521 votes)
Yankees 8.59% (1,060 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 6.48% (800 votes)
Total Votes: 12,338

 

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Bell Trade

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Christmas Eve isn’t a time to expect blockbuster moves to take place in Major League Baseball, but the Nationals and Pirates came together on a significant trade Thursday. The deal left the Nationals with a new first baseman in Josh Bell, whom they acquired from the Pirates for young right-handers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean.

Bell is a potentially huge acquisition for Washington, as he was a 37-home run-hitting All-Star as recently as 2019. Otherwise, the switch-hitting 28-year-old has been closer to average than great as a hitter since he debuted in 2016. Last season was tough sledding for Bell, who hit a disappointing .226/.305/.364 with eight home runs and a career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate in 223 plate appearances. Bell still has two years of team control left (he’ll make a projected $5.1MM to $7.2MM in 2021), but the Pirates decided to sell low on him. If he returns to his previous form, Bell shouldn’t have issues improving on the Nationals’ 2020 first base trio of Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera and the now-retired Howie Kendrick. Nats first basemen finished the year 29th in fWAR (minus-0.7 fWAR) and batted .233/.305/.397.

The Pirates, who have little to no chance of competing in the near future, found Crowe and Yean enticing enough to part with Bell. Crowe is already their 17th-ranked prospect at MLB.com, which writes that he could turn into a No. 4/5 starter if he is able to refine his breaking ball and pitch usage. The 26-year-old made a brief major league debut last season, throwing 8 1/3 innings, and has notched a 4.03 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 in 290 minor league frames.

By MLB.com’s standards, Yean is a much more impressive prospect than Crowe, as it places the hard-throwing Yean seventh in the Pirates’ system. He’s just 19 years old, but combining “his stuff, size and delivery, Yean looks every bit the part of a future big league starter,” per MLB.com. Yean amassed 46 1/3 innings between the rookie and low-A levels in 2019 and put up a 3.50 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 46 1/3 frames.

What do you think of the trade for Washington and Pittsburgh? (Poll links for app users: Nationals, Pirates)

Grade the Bell trade for the Nationals
B 45.56% (8,138 votes)
A 31.41% (5,610 votes)
C 17.04% (3,043 votes)
D 3.54% (632 votes)
F 2.46% (439 votes)
Total Votes: 17,862
Grade the Bell trade for the Pirates
C 34.80% (5,809 votes)
B 25.49% (4,255 votes)
D 19.79% (3,303 votes)
F 10.28% (1,716 votes)
A 9.64% (1,609 votes)
Total Votes: 16,692

MLBTR Poll: George Springer’s Future

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Longtime Astros outfielder George Springer entered free agency this winter as one of the most coveted players on the open market. Understandably so, as the 31-year-old hit an excellent .270/.361/.491 with 174 home runs in 3,567 plate appearances from 2014-20. Thanks to his tremendous output in Houston’s uniform, MLBTR ranked Springer as the third-best free agent available at the beginning of the offseason, projecting him for a five-year, $125MM contract.

Almost two months into free agency, the Astros, Mets and Blue Jays are the only teams with reported interest in Springer. It’s unclear, though, whether the Astros are willing to dole out another nine-figure contract, despite what Springer has meant to the club. The Mets, led by deep-pocketed rookie owner Steve Cohen, could turn to Springer as their new center fielder, though that might mean trading one of their other outfielders (Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith). Similarly, the Blue Jays have a decent outfield on paper with Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. However, the team doesn’t appear content with Grichuk as its center fielder, so it could bring in Springer and let go of Grichuk or one of its other outfielders in a deal.

While Houston, New York and Toronto look like the front-runners to sign Springer, a “mystery team” could step in and steal the three-time All-Star. Which club do you expect to sign Springer? (Poll link for app users)

Who will sign George Springer?
Mets 53.02% (11,607 votes)
Blue Jays 21.45% (4,696 votes)
Other 14.31% (3,132 votes)
Astros 11.22% (2,455 votes)
Total Votes: 21,890

The Rangers’ Joey Gallo Decision

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The Rangers are one of the league’s most obvious sellers this offseason. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels has been open about the organization’s intent to cut payroll and rework the roster in hopes of contending in 2022. They’ve put that into action already, trading Lance Lynn and Rafael Montero for longer-term assets.

Lynn was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of next season. Montero is controllable for an additional year, but as a 30-year-old reliever on a team not expecting to immediately contend, he was a sensible player to move. A tougher question for Texas is how to proceed with Joey Gallo.

The 27-year-old Gallo is under control for the next two seasons. He’s projected for a salary in the $5-7MM range this winter and will be eligible for arbitration once more after that. If the Rangers truly believe they can field a contender in 2022, they could elect to proceed year-by-year through arbitration.

There’s a case to be made, though, Texas should approach the Gallo situation more proactively. That could mean him following Lynn and Montero out the door. Texas has made Gallo available to other teams, although it may not be the best time to try to work out a deal. After all, he struggled to a .181/.301/.378 line in 226 plate appearances this past season. An unsustainably low .240 BABIP no doubt played a role in that, but his struggles can’t all be chalked up to bad luck.

Gallo’s already high average launch angle increased by more than four degrees between 2019 and 2020. For many players, that’d be a positive development. Gallo, though, already had an extremely uphill swing path. Hitting the ball higher in the air last season didn’t do him any favors. Gallo’s batting average on airborne contact (fly balls and line drives) dropped from .556 in 2019 to .350 last season. His slugging output had an even more precipitous fall. Making matters worse, Gallo’s average exit velocity fell more than three miles per hour from where it had been in 2018-19.

2020 struggles notwithstanding, the Rangers presumably anticipate Gallo to rebound. In August, Texas manager Chris Woodward called the slugger “by far the best player on the field” in every game he plays. There was a degree of hyperbole in that statement, to be sure, but Woodward’s affinity for Gallo has plenty of merit. Between 2017-19, Gallo hit .217/.336/.533 (120 wRC+) with 103 home runs over 1406 plate appearances. That’s solidly above-average offensive production. And Gallo has consistently rated as a quality outfielder (especially in the corners) and baserunner. Even with one of the league’s highest strikeout rates, Gallo has shown flashes of stardom.

Daniels and newly-minted GM Chris Young have a tough decision with their franchise player coming off a career-worst year. It’s not an ideal time to look for a trade, although there’ll surely be teams that see his off year as an anomaly. Gallo’s young enough that Texas could decide to explore an extension, even with the team taking a step back in 2021. Finding a price point agreeable to both the club and the Boras Corporation client on the heels of a down season might be difficult, though.

So, what course of action should the Texas front office pursue this winter with the 2019 All-Star?

(poll link for app users)

How Should The Rangers Proceed With Joey Gallo This Offseason?
Trade him. 59.13% (6,733 votes)
Keep him next season via arbitration. 24.64% (2,805 votes)
Pursue a long-term extension. 16.23% (1,848 votes)
Total Votes: 11,386

 

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