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MLBTR Poll: Will The National League Have The DH In 2021?

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For the first time since 1972, both the American League and National League played a season under a uniform set of rules.  The institution of the universal designated hitter was one of several concessions made to the unusual circumstances of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, as with pitchers already facing a heightened injury risk from a lack of normal preseason preparation time, the decision was made to spare the pitchers the extra stress of hitting.  Both the league and the players’ union agreed that the DH would become a full-time feature of National League baseball for the first time ever.

What was the reaction?  Well, it probably depended on how you felt about the DH in the first place.  It didn’t quite stand out as much as other oddities of 2020 baseball (i.e. the automatic runner on second base in extra innings, or seven-inning games in doubleheaders) since the DH has been part of the game for almost 50 years, yet some fans of National League teams surely felt unusual watching games played in their favorite team’s ballpark without a pitcher coming to the plate.  If you’re a fan of the Dodgers, Braves, or Padres, you probably learned to love the DH — having an extra lineup spot to house a big bat was a key reason why these three playoff-bound clubs scored the most runs of any team in baseball.

DH-free baseball has long been on the decline at many levels of the game, and the thought was that the universal designated hitter would eventually become part of Major League Baseball.  With the current collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2021 season, it has long been assumed that the universal DH would be one of the many issues to be debated between the owners and players.  The 2020 implementation was considered to be a first step in that direction, and since the experiment seemed to work well, could the league and the MLBPA simply skip ahead and make the designated hitter permanent in National League baseball?

It won’t be quite so easy, of course.  Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that all rule changes applied only to the 2020 season, so any further changes like a universal DH would have to be settled after another round of negotiation between the league and the players.  With the CBA talks looming and the contentious tone of the negotiations prior to the start of the shortened season still lingering, there may be no such thing as an “easy” decision between MLB and the MLBPA these days.  It is quite likely that the league will try to gain some concessions from the union in exchange for the universal DH, and given how loathe the players have been to concede any ground to the owners, it may be difficult to find common ground on one relatively small issue without opening the larger can of worms that is the myriad of questions facing the sport in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Manfred’s statement about the DH and likelihood of a 2021 rules reset could also be a way of addressing the concerns of National League general managers.  As the Padres’ A.J. Preller recently noted in regards to his team’s club option with Mitch Moreland, the Padres are a little unsure about how to proceed with deciding on Moreland or other roster matters until they know whether or not the designated hitter slot will be available.  If the rules will revert to their pre-2020 state, Manfred was essentially telling Preller and company to prepare as if there won’t be a DH….until, maybe, there is?

As we get closer to Opening Day 2021, MLB will have a better idea of how (or if) the next season will proceed, whether that manifests in another shortened season, fans in the stands, or many other factors related to the state of the pandemic.  It could be that the 2020 rules are re-implemented around, say, early March if it becomes apparent that a normal 162-game schedule isn’t feasible.

But, many player agents and MLBPA members are undoubtedly aware that the lack of a DH spot will mean fewer roster opportunities for players this offseason.  Players like Moreland could have their options declined, defensively-challenged veterans will be less in demand, and even some of the bigger-name designated hitters will again see their markets limited to the American League.  Like MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in regards to Nelson Cruz, the slugger’s desire for a two-year contract would be much easier to find if all 30 teams were candidates (at least on paper) to sign Cruz this winter.

With all these factors in mind, do you think the league and the players will work out a deal for a universal DH in 2021, or will the National League get at least one more years of pitchers at the plate? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

MLBTR Poll: Veteran Free-Agent Shortstops

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Next year’s group of free agents is scheduled to feature a star-studded group of shortstops, as Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are all due to reach the open market then. The upcoming winter’s shortstop class pales in comparison to that bunch, but there are still a few household names set to become available. As far as veterans go, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to sign this offseason?

The qualifying offer could serve as an impediment for all three players, as each could conceivably receive one. There may not be a better candidate for a QO among the trio than Gregorius, a 30-year-old who’s coming off his latest effective season with the Phillies. He was a key part of the Yankees’ roster from 2015-18, combining for 14.6 fWAR, before taking a step back in ’19 during a year cut short by Tommy John surgery on his left elbow.

Semien, also 30, has enjoyed the greatest peak season of anyone in this group. He was a 7.6-fWAR player with Oakland back in 2019, but Semien was an average to slightly above-average contributor in the years preceding that, and he fell back to earth in 2020.

Simmons, who turned 31 next month, has never been an offensive juggernaut, but a combination of respectable work with the bat and all-world defense have propelled him to a stellar career with the Braves and Angels. There’s no denying Simmons is one of the greatest defenders in recent memory at any position, which could serve him well as a free agent.

In a vacuum, Gregorius looks like the best choice here. He’s most likely to command a multiyear deal and a qualifying offer, but that doesn’t mean every team would prefer him over Semien or Simmons. Keep in mind that Semien and Simmons may not be saddled with a QO, which could make one or both more appealing than Gregorius. All things considered, then, which of these established shortstops would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Marcell Ozuna’s Next Contract

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Outfielder Marcell Ozuna just wrapped up a dream season as a member of the Braves, with whom he slashed .338/.431/.606 and totaled a National League-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances. The Braves couldn’t have expected better than that when they signed Ozuna, a former Marlin and Cardinal, to a one-year, $18MM contract last January. Unfortunately for Atlanta, though, it could lose Ozuna in the coming weeks.

While Ozuna didn’t make out as hoped in free agency an offseason ago, this winter could be a different story. With the offseason looming, Ozuna stands out as one of the absolute best hitters who could become available soon. He also won’t be dealing with a qualifying offer, which helped weigh down his market a year ago. The main issue is whether the universal designated hitter will stick around, as that could impact how many NL teams pursue Ozuna on the open market. While Ozuna has spent his entire career in the NL, the Braves mostly deployed him as a DH in 2020.

Regardless of his defensive questions, Ozuna should have a lot of offense-needy teams after him in the offseason. Along with his bottom-line production, which has consistently been better than average, Ozuna is something of a Statcast favorite.The Braves have said they’d like to re-sign Ozuna, but whether it’s them or another team, how much do you think he’ll earn on his next contract?

(Poll link for app users)

Bigger Contract: George Springer Or J.T. Realmuto?

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Barring extensions over the next couple of weeks, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Astros outfielder George Springer will enter free agency as the two best position players on the open market. Realmuto is by far the premier catcher slated to reach free agency, where other options such as James McCann (White Sox) and Yadier Molina (Cardinals) will pale in comparison. Likewise, Springer’s easily the top center field-capable player who could soon become available. The question now is whether Realmuto or Springer will make more on his next contract.

Realmuto, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who has been the majors’ most valuable catcher since 2017, has an opportunity to set a record in terms of annual earnings at his position. Former Twin Joe Mauer holds the record at eight years and $184MM on the extension he signed in 2010. Realmuto doesn’t seem to stand much chance of eclipsing Mauer’s total guarantee, but the $23MM per annum the ex-Minnesota standout raked in appears to be a realistic target.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Springer earn a similar amount on a yearly basis. Although he is older than Realmuto (31), Springer has been a star-level performer since his career began in 2014. And dating back to last season, Springer has slashed .284/.376/.576 with 53 home runs. He ranks seventh among qualified hitters in wRC+ (153) and ninth in fWAR (8.4) since 2019.

Unlike Realmuto, Springer probably isn’t going to set any kind of record for earning power at his position. However, that doesn’t mean Springer won’t out-earn Realmuto on a five- or six-year deal (which MLBTR expects the two to receive). Both players will be saddled with qualifying offers, but that shouldn’t dim teams’ enthusiasm if and when they hit the market. Which player do you think will wind up with a higher guarantee on his next pact?

(Poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business last night against he Atlanta Braves to win their third pennant in the last four seasons. Corey Seager took home NLCS MVP honors, but it was Enrique Hernandez and Cody Bellinger coming up with big home runs in the sixth and seventh innings to seal the win. Our 2020 World Series matchup is now set, as the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Dodgers, beginning with a pair of Dodgers’ home games (at Globe Life Field in Texas) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odd at it sounds, it’s rare to see each league’s top seed make it to the World Series in the same season. This year’s match-up achieves even rarer air, however. The Rays and Dodgers boast the highest combined regular-season winning percentage of any World Series contenders all-time, per Stats by STATS. There is, of course, the short season caveat, but the 2020 World Series nonetheless pits two sterling contenders against one another in what should/could be a real barnburner.

In one corner, we have the small market Rays. Run by the finest wunderkinds MLB can offer, this era of Rays baseball has been known for three things: innovation, ridiculously strong farm systems, and a front office of baseball wizards who have thrice been poached by large market clubs (Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers). The best of the Rays prospect pool remains on the farm (Wander Franco), but less-heralded stars like Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Joey Wendle, Pete Fairbanks, and others have led the Rays to the World Series. Lest you think they’re merely a ragtag group of underdogs, remember that Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Blake Snell make up a surprisingly star-studded rotation for these “measly” Rays.

With manager Kevin Cash pulling the strings, Tampa finished 12th in runs scored during the regular season, 9th in wRC+, and 9th in batter fWAR. Arozarena, Choi, and somehow, Mike Zunino have steered the ship for the offense in the postseason thus far. They’ll look to get more from Lowe at the top of the order, and rest easy in knowing they don’t need to outscore the world forever, they just need to outscore the Dodgers in 4 games. The pitching should help in that regard, as their 3.56 team ERA was third in the majors.

The Dodgers, of course, boast a 3.02 team ERA during the regular season, the top mark in the majors. They also hit more home runs and scored more runs than any other team in the majors over the 60-game season. After coming back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit, they’ve now checked the ’faced adversity’ box as well. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger lead a star-studded offense, while Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler should be ready to start the first two games of the series. With rest days built in, the Dodgers’ ace duo should be more available to the Dodgers than at any other time this postseason.

And of course, there’s Andrew Friedman, the architect of these Dodgers who came to run a large market behemoth with the restraint and attention-to-detail he used to run the Rays. There aren’t gimmicks here, it’s just process building and sound decision-making. The philosophy works, and now we can sit back and enjoy the show as Friedman’s old team takes on his new one.

Let’s keep this simple, baseball fans: who is going to win the World Series? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Braves Or Dodgers?

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The National League pennant will be decided tonight. The Braves and Dodgers will kick off NLCS Game 7 in a few hours. The winner will take on the Rays next week in the World Series.

The Dodgers were the league’s most imposing offense in the regular season. Los Angeles has continued to mash in the postseason, averaging nearly six runs per game in the NLCS, thanks largely to Corey Seager’s recent home run barrage. Overall, L.A. has a 35-30 run differential edge for the series.

Atlanta’s lineup doesn’t have the depth of the Dodgers’ but the Braves obviously have ample high-end talent. Atlanta also has the more stable pitching outlook for Game 7. While the Dodgers will open with Dustin May, presumably to kick off a full-on bullpen game, Atlanta will hand the ball over to Game 2 starter Ian Anderson.

The 22-year-old Anderson has just six career regular season appearances under his belt, but he’s been downright stellar. The former third overall pick put up a 1.95 ERA over 32.1 innings as a rookie. Anderson punched out an impressive 29.7% of opposing hitters during the regular season while racking up grounders on over half the balls in play against him. The changeup artist also hasn’t been scored upon in 15.2 playoff innings.

The MLBTR readership was almost evenly split as to who would emerge victorious at the beginning of the series. (For what it’s worth, the Braves have since lost left fielder Adam Duvall to an oblique injury, unexpectedly forcing Cristian Pache into everyday duty). Predicting individual baseball games can be something of a fool’s errand, but we’ll turn it over to the readers nonetheless. Who will be celebrating a league championship tonight?

(poll link for app users).

MLBTR Poll: DJ LeMahieu’s Next Contract

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It was only two years ago that second baseman DJ LeMahieu reached free agency for the first time. The former Cub and Rockie hit the open market as someone who was regarded as a useful contributor, but hardly a star. He still did well for himself, inking a $24MM pact with the Yankees, but now finds himself on the verge of another trip to free agency. The difference this time is that LeMahieu will now be one of the most coveted players available.

While LeMahieu did have a batting title with the Rockies on his resume when the Yankees added him, he didn’t show off a ton of power prior to moving to New York. In all, he was a .298/.350/.406 hitter with a mediocre 90 wRC+ and 49 home runs across 3,799 plate appearances. Since then, though, LeMahieu has exploded for a .336/.386/.536 mark, a 146 wRC+ and 36 HRs, making him one of the sport’s elite hitters. He’s coming off a regular season in which he picked up another batting title (.364) and paced the American League in wRC+ (177).

One of the questions now is how far the Yankees may go to retain LeMahieu. He said before their season-ending ALDS loss to the Rays that there had not been any contract talks, but it’s hard to believe the Yankees won’t put forth an earnest effort to re-sign the 32-year-old before free agency opens. They may not make a competitive enough offer, however, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote earlier this week that the Yankees are likely to “hold the line” at a maximum of three years and $20MM per annum.

During our pre-free agency debates at MLBTR, we’ve set a floor of $80MM over four years, though we have entertained even higher guarantees. No matter what, it’s easy to see LeMahieu, a big hitter with defensive versatility, reeling in a far larger payday than he did the last time he was looking for a contract. For this exercise, we’ll place the over/under at $80.5MM. How well do you think LeMahieu will do? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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It was just last season when the Rays battled back from down 2-0 to force a game 5 winner-take-all match with the Astros in the ALDS. That game featured a showdown of Gerrit Cole versus Tyler Glasnow, one that would be replayed this year, but with Cole wearing pinstripes. Cole fared better last year, when the Astros took down the Rays by a score of 6-1. The Rays got their revenge on Cole Friday night, and now they’re ready to check the Astros off their list as well. Easier said than done, however, as these Astros have proven they won’t go quietly.

The home team won every game in their playoff showdown last year. Of course, this season there will be no home crowd to contend with, but the tables have turned in that the Rays are the AL East champs who will enjoy last bats for games 1, 2, 5, and 7. As a wild card entrant, the Astros are a rare much-disliked underdog. They’re also a much different team from last year, at least on the pitching side of things.

Of course, their front offices know each other well. After the Astros were forced to fire Jeff Luhnow, James Click was hired away from the Rays to take over as General Manager. Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Click said about facing his former team, “On a scale from zero to weird, it’s going to be weird.”

This series will be played over 7 consecutive days, should it go the distance. Both the Rays and Astros have gone to “playoff style” in their pitcher usage, but a 7-game, 7-day series will stretch those staffs even further. For the Astros, there’s concern about the health of Zack Greinke. The 36-year-old enigmatic ace has been dealing with arm soreness for the past month, though doctors did not find any structural damage. Still, it’s a concern for the Astros, as Greinke hasn’t been at his sharpest, surrendering 5 earned runs in 8 2/3 postseason innings thus far.

They’ve survived without him largely due to the breakout of 26-year-old Framber Valdez, who will start game one on Sunday night. Lance McCullers Jr. will go in game two. They’re planning to remove a position player in favor of having an extra arm for the ALCS, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also options to start games, while Enoli Paredes stepped up in a multi-inning role for the Astros against the Athletics. As a staff, they’re breaking new ground with every new win. Even Ryan Pressly, one of their few veterans, is experiencing his first postseason as a closer.

Same as Houston, the Rays will add a 14th pitcher to the staff and drop a position player, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). That should help them cope with a drawn-out series, the but the Rays chart their own path in terms of managing their pitching staff, as evidenced by manager Kevin Cash bringing back Glasnow to serve as a glorified opener on 2-days rest for the clinching game of the ALDS. Blake Snell will get the game one start for the third round in a row, while Charlie Morton is expected – though not announced – as the game two starter.

Because they play in different divisions, these two teams haven’t faced off since last year’s ALDS. The series starts tomorrow night. MLBTR readers, who is going to win this series? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Yankees v. Rays: Who Will Advance?

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The rival Yankees and Rays entered the season as the two favorites in the AL East, and they did indeed finish atop the division. The Rays handily outdid the Yankees, though, finishing with a 40-20 record to New York’s 33-27 mark. The Rays got there in part because they dominated the Yankees in the regular season with eight victories in the teams’ 10 contests. However, the clubs have been much more evenly matched in their ALDS showdown. At 2-2, they’ll meet for the decisive Game 5 of the series on Friday.

To this point, the offensive excellence of designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton – who already has four home runs in the series – has led the Yankees. In all likelihood, though, New York will need a sterling performance from ace Gerrit Cole, a 30-year-old who’s starting on short rest for the first time in his career, in order to advance. The club signed Cole for this type of game when it landed the ex-Pirate and Astro on a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last offseason. Cole has since gone 2-0 in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory against the Rays, and allowed five earned runs on 12 hits with a 21:2 K:BB ratio over 13 innings.

With a payroll that falls well short of the Yankees’, the Rays have used a mix of creativity and shrewdly acquired talent to earn a place among the game’s elite teams. They revolutionized the opener strategy a couple years ago, and they won’t be afraid to turn to it yet again Friday. Righty Tyler Glasnow, Cole’s former Pirates teammate, will take the ball in Game 5 at the start; however, Glasnow’s only on two days’ rest, and manager Kevin Cash said on Friday that the Rays will utilize 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell early if there’s a need for it, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Snell could further strengthen a bullpen that was one of the majors’ best during the regular season.

So far in the series, the Yankees have outscored Glasnow, Snell & Co. by a 23-19 count. But none of that matters heading into a do-or-die Game 5. Which team do you expect to finish with more runs Friday and advance to face the Astros in the ALCS?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?

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The 2020 National League Champion Series is set, and for all the concern of a watered-down postseason field this year, we’ll see two of the league’s top three records square off when the 43-17 Dodgers take on the 35-25 Braves.

Atlanta and Los Angeles both feature powerhouse offenses, as the two were separated by just one run during regular season play atop the National League leaderboard; the Dodgers scored an NL-best 349 runs to the Braves’ 348. The Dodgers posted a team 122 wRC+ to the Braves’ 121.

It’s a different story on the pitching front, where an injury-plagued Atlanta club saw its rotation post an NL-worst 5.51 ERA to the Dodgers’ NL-best 3.29 mark. The Braves, however, have a pair of high-end arms fronting a top-heavy rotation: Cy Young candidate Max Fried and breakout rookie Ian Anderson. Former No. 5 overall pick Kyle Wright dominated in his postseason debut yesterday when he blanked the Marlins over six innings and piled up seven strikeouts. As for the bullpens? These are the National League’s two best in terms of both ERA and FIP.

Both teams swept a division rival in the NLDS. The Dodgers ended a breakout 2020 showing for the upstart Padres, while the Braves cut short a Cinderella season for a Marlins club that very few pegged as a playoff contender. The end result is a star-studded NLCS that will pit Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and the rest of the Dodgers against Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Fried and the Braves. We’ve yet to see these clubs square off in 2020, but this best-of-seven series should pack plenty of intrigue.

We’re three days out from Game 1, which will take place on Monday evening. MLBTR readers, who are you taking? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

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