Yankees, Astros Pursuing Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler
The Yankees and Astros, two American League superpowers, continue their pursuit of high-profile starting pitchers. Both teams are in on Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets righty Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Astros are also “focused” on Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Ray has been on the Yankees’ radar of late, too.
The Astros and Yankees are among the teams on Bumgarner’s limited no-trade list, but that doesn’t mean the pending free agent would block a deal to either club. Of course, it’s not a sure thing the playoff-contending Giants will even move Bumgarner, a franchise icon, by today’s deadline. They’ve been telling teams that they plan to keep him and closer Will Smith, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
This is the second time this week the Astros have been prominently connected to Bumgarner and Wheeler. As is the case with Bumgarner, Wheeler’s a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent. While Wheeler may be the top trade candidate in baseball, the Mets aren’t guaranteed to part with him. They’ve made something of a charge up the standings of late, and seem prepared to retain Wheeler if they don’t get the type of return they’re seeking for the flamethrower. And whether the Mets would even trade Wheeler to the hated Yankees is also in question.
Noah Syndergaard Reportedly “Off The Trade Market”
WEDNESDAY, 10:25am: The Mets took Syndergaard “off the trade market last night,” according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links). While the club is still talking about Wheeler — the Mets “have a price” that’ll need to be met in order to move him — it seems they are now all but closed off to a deal involving Thor.
The roller-coaster ride of the Mets has continued unabated. While the club has a legitimate shot at sneaking into a Wild Card slot, it still needs to leapfrog some other teams to get there. After weeks of rumors regarding Syndergaard and Wheeler — following an offseason in which the former, especially, was batted around in trade chatter — it seems the New York org will attempt once again to build around the former and may even hang onto the latter.
6:42am: There’s still at least some possibility of a deal with the Padres, but it “feels like a long shot,” per Jon Heyman of MLB network (via Twitter). It seems the asking price is just too great at the moment, with the Mets seeking a package that includes “both major league pieces and prospects.”
12:50am: Rival executives who have spoken with the Mets believe a Syndergaard deal has indeed become “less likely,” Robert Murray of The Athletic reports. At least for now, it “appears” Syndergaard will remain a Met, per Murray.
TUESDAY, 11:42pm: Right-handers Marcus Stroman and Trevor Bauer have already ended up on the move prior to Wednesday’s trade deadline. Righty Noah Syndergaard, the most popular player in the rumor mill in recent days, could join them. But Syndergaard expects to remain a Met beyond the deadline, as he told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters Tuesday.
“I think I’m staying put,” said Syndergaard, who DiComo notes has been in contact with the Mets’ front office.
The Mets started Syndergaard against the White Sox on Tuesday, which they likely wouldn’t have done if they were closing in on a trade. Syndergaard proceeded to turn in one of his finest performances of the season, tossing 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball (unearned) with five hits allowed and 11 strikeouts against one walk. The 26-year-old now owns a 4.10 ERA/3.48 FIP with 9.2 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 and a 48.8 percent groundball rate in 134 innings.
Syndergaard’s 2019 production hasn’t been as great as we’ve come to expect from him since he debuted in 2015. That isn’t to say it’s unimpressive, though, as it does somewhat rival the numbers Stroman and Bauer have put up this year. Stroman, an ex-Blue Jay who’s now teammates with Syndergaard, netted two decent prospects in a trade over the weekend. Bauer returned a haul to the Indians on Tuesday in a trade that also involved the Reds (his new team) and the Padres.
The Mets would be within reason to hold out for even more than Bauer brought back. After all, compared to Bauer, Syndergaard is younger, several million dollars cheaper, under control for a year longer and in possession of a superior track record. New York’s undoubtedly exorbitant asking price for Syndergaard may wind up as too rich for the rest of the league.
The Padres, for one, are seemingly out of the race. Talks between the Mets and Padres “are completely dormant,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Franmil Reyes was reportedly among the players the Padres were willing to trade for Syndergaard, but the Friars sent him to the Indians in Tuesday’s blockbuster.
If Syndergaard does remain in place Wednesday, the Mets could still deal another high-profile starter in fellow righty Zack Wheeler. The 29-year-old pending free agent may be the most obvious trade candidate in baseball heading into the deadline.
Noah Syndergaard Rumors: Tuesday
The Mets have already added one of the most coveted starters on the trade market, but they’re poised to perhaps trade away one or two more. New York continues to listen to offers on righty Noah Syndergaard, who is still listed as the starter for tonight’s game. We’ll track today’s rumblings on him here and update throughout the evening…
- The Padres made what they considered a fair offer on Syndergaard — one that involved Major League players — but still aren’t close to coming to terms with the Mets, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). The Padres are widely believed to be willing to deal from their plethora of outfielders — Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are among the available names — and also possess one of baseball’s premier farm systems. San Diego’s interest in Syndergaard dates back to the offseason, and they’re still hoping to add a potential frontline starter to help them in 2020 beyond at this year’s deadline. While they’ve explored innumerable trade scenarios around the league, the Padres’ “most earnest” pursuit has been their ongoing effort to obtain Syndergaard, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- Similarly, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Mets have been seeking current MLB talent in all of their Syndergaard talks — even from teams with highly regarded minor league systems. That meshes with last night’s report (from LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that the Mets had asked the Twins for center fielder Byron Buxton as part of the return for Syndergaard — an ask that Minnesota was rather obvious unwilling to oblige. (Buxton is hitting .259/.313/.508, good for a 108 wRC+, and is arguably baseball’s best outfield defender.)
- “[W]hat they were asking it is not even worth a second conversation,” one executive tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post with regard to Syndergaard discussions with the Mets. “I’m not even sure it was worth the first. … [T]he Mets are not in the mode of meeting you in the middle of your offer and their ask, it is their ask or nothing.” As Sherman more broadly explores, Mets brass has no inclination to move toward anything but a win-now approach in 2020. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen was the only one of the dozen GM candidates for the Mets who did not recommend some level of rebuild to ownership, Sherman writes, and both he and the Wilpon family remain committed to constructing a roster they believe can compete in 2020. That seems to only further underline that the Mets would want multiple MLB or MLB-ready assets to part with Syndergaard.
Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez
The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).
While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:
- Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
- While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
- If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.
Zack Wheeler Rumors: Astros Increasingly Seen As Favorite
We just knighted Mets righty Zack Wheeler the top trade deadline candidate in baseball. The results haven’t been there in 2019, but he’s got a power arsenal and is earning less than $6MM on the season. With deadline pressure reaching a breaking point, there ought to be a ton of chatter on him over the next day and a half.
We’ll keep tabs on all the latest right here:
- The Astros are “working hard” to land Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Despite the Houston organization’s stated intention to consider controllable starters, it seems the club has fixed its sights on Wheeler. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that one rival exec “fully expect[s]” the ‘Stros to come away with the righty.
- Other teams obviously will remain involved until a deal is struck. Last night, Martino cited the Braves, Brewers, Yankeees, Rays, and Athletics as teams with varying levels of ongoing involvement in the Wheeler market. (Twitter links.) That picture could certainly change rapidly, though it stands to reason that each of those clubs will at least want to have a good sense of the price tag as talks work towards a conclusion.
- As they continue to hold discussions on fellow righty Noah Syndergaard, the Mets “still seem much more likely” to ship out Wheeler, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Frankly, it’s hard to imagine a reasonable scenario where Wheeler isn’t dealt unless the offers are so low that the Mets would rather hang onto him and make him a qualifying offer at season’s end. That’s not a terrible back-up plan, but it makes much more sense to take the bird in hand at the deadline given the evident levels of interest. (As for the concept of a Wheeler extension, that seems far too speculative to drive the team’s deadline strategy.)
Latest On Twins’ Pitching Pursuits
Over the past few weeks, the Twins have reportedly pursued trades for several high-profile starters, including right-handers Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard. Stroman, whom the Mets acquired from the Blue Jays on Sunday, is no longer an option for the Twins. Syndergaard, now one of Stroman’s teammates, could still move by Wednesday’s deadline. It doesn’t appear he’s going to end up in Minnesota, though. The Twins have balked at the Mets’ asking price for Syndergaard after turning down the Blue Jays’ requests for Stroman, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports.
Toronto ultimately gave up Stroman for prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two pitchers who do not rank among the game’s top 100 farmhands. On the other hand, the Blue Jays informed the Twins any Stroman trade “had to include” one of shortstop Royce Lewis or outfielder Alex Kirilloff, Neal writes. Lewis and Kirilloff are comfortably within baseball’s top 100 range, and they’re among a select few prospects the Twins may be wholly uninterested in trading for just about anyone.
The Mets, meanwhile, sought a return including center fielder Byron Buxton in their Syndergaard-related discussions with the Twins, according to Neal. Unsurprisingly, giving up Buxton was out of the question for the Twins, who have seen the 25-year-old blossom into a highly valuable member of their AL Central-leading roster. Buxton, moreover, is making just $1.75MM this season and under control via arbitration for the next three years.
Having struck out on Stroman and Syndergaard, the Twins are prepared to move on to relief pursuits, per Neal, who writes they “seem comfortable” with the starters they have. Statistically, their rotation – which consists of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez – has held its own this season.
Minnesota’s bullpen hasn’t been as successful as the team’s starters, and there has been no shortage of recent turnover in its relief corps with the deadline approaching. The Twins parted with Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker after each racked up a solid number of innings for the club earlier in the season. Hoping to upgrade, the Twins acquired the established Sergio Romo from the Marlins on Saturday. It doesn’t appear chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager are going to stop there. They’ve talked to every MLB team with relievers to trade – including the previously reported Padres (Kirby Yates) and Blue Jays (Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson) – and Neal suggests those discussions are likely to continue.
Pitching Chatter: Vazquez, Diaz, Ray, Colome, Greene
As the Dodgers continue to try to pry closer Felipe Vazquez loose from the Pirates, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link) that the sides are at a bit of an impasse. It seems the Bucs would (quite understandably) like to receive soaring L.A. prospect Gavin Lux, a versatile infielder who has completely obliterated Triple-A pitching (.474/.553/.918 in 114 plate appearances with eight home runs and a 17:17 K/BB ratio) since a mid-season promotion. The clubs may well be engaged in a bit of a staring contest as the deadline draws near.
More news and rumors from the pitching market …
- The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.
- Rival organizations “fully expect” the Diamondbacks to deal southpaw Robbie Ray, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Arizona GM Mike Hazen continued to acknowledge his club’s tricky middle ground while avoiding a firm commitment to a particular course of action, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The top baseball ops man did acknowledge that there’s a possibility the team could pull off enough sell-side moves that it wouldn’t make sense to reload in the offseason. At the moment, the Brewers, Astros, and Yankees are among the teams with active talks or interest in Ray, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
- With a real shot at a much-anticipated return to the top of the heap in the NL Central, the Cardinals could yet swing a big deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the St. Louis ballclub is interested in a controllable starter. Beyond that, the Cards’ precise plans remain a bit difficult to ascertain. The club is interested in lefty relief pitching, though that’s a trade deadline staple for many contenders. We haven’t seen the team connected prominently to any high-end hurlers, but a bold move seems tempting.
- We’ve seen the Yankees connected to a wide variety of hurlers in recent weeks, with the club focused primarily on starters but also entertaining relief upgrades. They’ve recently chatted with the Tigers about old friend Shane Greene, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). Most contenders are no doubt at least checking in on Greene, who’s among the likeliest players in baseball to be traded in the coming days.
- Similarly, the Phillies have cast an exceedingly broad net. Their relief situation remains problematic; now, there are indications that David Robertson‘s rehab may drag into September, as Nightengale was among those to tweet. Another name to add to the list of Phils possibilities: Alex Colome of the White Sox. Morosi tweets that there’s “continued interest” on the part of the Philadelphia organization.
Poll: Grading The Marcus Stroman Trade
After weeks of trade rumors centering on longtime Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman, the club found a taker for the right-hander Sunday. Toronto sent him to New York, which many anticipated would happen, but not to the NYC-based team anyone was expecting. Instead of shipping Stroman to the World Series-contending Yankees, the Blue Jays dealt him to a Mets team that’s five games under .500 (50-55), six back of wild-card position and will have to jump over five other NL hopefuls down the stretch to earn a playoff spot.
In all likelihood, Stroman won’t be part of a postseason-bound franchise this season. Nevertheless, the Mets decided it was worthwhile to surrender two prospects from an already below-average farm system for Stroman. The Mets gave up Triple-A left-hander Anthony Kay and Single-A righty Simeon Woods Richardson to land Stroman and his remaining year and a half of team control. Now, the Mets could turn around by Wednesday’s trade deadline and make significant subtractions from the rotation Stroman just joined. They did send lefty Jason Vargas to the Phillies on Monday, but the Mets have two much bigger fish – righties Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler – who have frequented the rumor mill of late.
There shouldn’t be pressure to move Syndergaard, who’s under control through 2021. However, Syndergaard would surely bring back more in a trade than Stroman, enabling the Mets to somewhat reload their farm after taking more pieces from it Sunday. Likewise, it’s not a must for the Mets to wave goodbye to Wheeler. Although the 29-year-old’s a pending free agent, the Mets could keep him and try to work out an extension – which has at least come up as a possibility. Alternatively, the team could retain Wheeler through the season and issue him a qualifying offer if it’s dissatisfied with the trade offers that come in this week.
For now, the top of the Mets’ 2020 rotation looks like this: Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman. On paper, that would be one of the game’s most formidable trios, but we may never see them in action together.
Unlike the Mets, the Blue Jays aren’t aiming to contend in 2020, which is a major reason why they traded Stroman. Expectations were Stroman would fetch at least one ballyhooed top 100 prospect in a trade, but that didn’t end up happening.
In Kay, the Blue Jays picked up a near-to-the-majors 24-year-old whom Baseball America (subscription required) ranked as the Mets’ fourth-best prospect prior to the trade. The Mets chose Kay 31st overall in the 2016 draft, but he dealt with an elbow injury that year and then underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. As a result, Kay didn’t pitch competitively for the organization until last year. However, with help from a fastball that can reach 96 mph, Kay has quickly ascended since debuting in 2018. He thrived at the Double-A level to begin this season before earning a promotion to the top of the minors. Kay has struggled in his first action at Triple-A, though, having put up a 6.61 ERA/6.22 FIP with 7.47 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 30.2 percent groundball rate in 31 1/3 innings. He is now the Blue Jays’ fifth-ranked prospect in MLB.com’s estimation, which posits that Kay could find his niche as a “mid-rotation-type starter” in the bigs.
Meanwhile, MLB.com places Woods Richardson seventh among Toronto’s prospects. Just 18, a year removed from going in the second round of the draft, Woods Richardson has logged spectacular strikeout and walk numbers (11.14 K/9, 1.95 BB/9) with a 4.25 ERA/2.56 FIP and a 49.3 percent grounder rate in 20 starts and 78 1/3 innings at the Single-A level this season. He possesses “premium stuff and mound demeanor to spare,” according to BA, which rated him sixth among Mets farmhands.
Although they’re not premier prospects at the moment, there is optimism in regards to Kay and Woods Richardson evolving into long-term major leaguers. The Mets opted for the surer bet in Stroman, however, and are now evidently hoping he’ll help them to a playoff berth in 2020 (if not a miraculous run this season). But it’s up for debate whether New York should have traded for Stroman, especially considering the team may now weaken the rotation it just strengthened by parting with Syndergaard and-or Wheeler.
How do you think the two teams made out in this deal? (Poll links for app users)
Grade the Mets' acquisition of Marcus Stroman
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B 35% (8,260)
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A 28% (6,627)
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C 19% (4,503)
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D 10% (2,378)
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F 8% (1,902)
Total votes: 23,670
Grade the Blue Jays' return for Marcus Stroman
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C 36% (8,035)
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D 25% (5,513)
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B 20% (4,432)
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F 13% (2,924)
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A 6% (1,238)
Total votes: 22,142
Phillies Acquire Jason Vargas
4:46pm: The move is official. The Phillies designated righty Yacksel Rios to open a 40-man spot.
3:51pm: The Phillies have reportedly struck a deal to acquire veteran lefty Jason Vargas from the Mets. Catcher Austin Bossart is going to the New York organization in the swap. The Mets will cover the larger portion of the remaining contractual obligation to Vargas, ultimately saving $2MM.
This long-anticipated trade of Vargas clears a rotation spot for just-acquired righty Marcus Stroman. Though Vargas is far senior to Stroman in age and MLB service, they’re in similar contract situations. The former is earning $8MM this year with a $8MM club option. The latter is taking down a $7.4MM salary in 2019 and stands to earn a nice raise on that amount in the offseason, when he’ll go through the arbitration process for the final time. Viewed in the aggregate, the Mets will still end up taking on added salary (and giving up prospect capital), though they did get $1.5MM in salary relief as part of the Stroman swap. The New York org will remain on the hook for what’s left of Vargas’s remaining 2019 salary along with a $250K assignment bonus. The Phillies will be responsible for a $2MM buyout on the option.
It’s not surprising to see Vargas on the move. It’s mostly a salary-saving transaction, designed to help partially offset the new obligations to Stroman. The 26-year-old Bossart won’t really make up for the prospects sent to the Blue Jays. He’s in the midst of a rough campaign, his second at the Double-A level. In his 236 trips to the plate, he’s slashing just .195/.303/.335 with seven home runs.
The more interesting question for the Mets is whether any of the club’s other starters will end up following Vargas out the door. While there has never been any indication that the club is considering offers on Jacob deGrom, it is said to be interesting in moving Zack Wheeler and/or Noah Syndergaard. The latter two starters are indeed still on the block, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.
There are questions, too, from the Phillies’ perspective. It seems fair to assume that Vargas will step into the rotation, though it’s not clear where the opening will come from. And it remains to be seen whether the club will also pursue other pitching upgrades.
Vargas, 36, won’t exactly be a marquee addition for the Phils, but he ought to help hold firm up the staff down the stretch. The soft-tossing southpaw has somehow managed to keep opposing hitters off balance despite averaging less than 85 mph with his fastball. He has bounced back from a terrible start to the season and steadily delivered solid work. He carries a 4.01 ERA through 94 1/3 frames, with 7.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Andy Martino of SNY.tv first reported that a deal involving Vargas was close (via Twitter). ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported that the Phillies were the acquiring team (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman of MLB Network (in a tweet) reported on the return. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted that the Mets would be covering some of the remaining cost, with Sherman tweeting the financial details.
Red Sox, Mets Have Discussed Edwin Diaz
As the Red Sox continue their search for bullpen help and the Mets continue to puzzle onlookers, the two teams have been in touch about a potential Edwin Diaz deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted early this morning that third base prospect Bobby Dalbec or corner infielder Triston Casas would likely be targeted as the centerpiece of any deal by the Mets. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston has indeed discussed a possible Diaz swap with the Mets, though, adding that the Red Sox are likely to add at least one, if not two relievers in the coming days. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that there’s “nothing hot” between the two sides at the moment, however.
It’s shaping up to be quite the deadline for the Mets, who shipped their two best pitching prospects to the Blue Jays yesterday in a trade that netted them Marcus Stroman. At the same time, the Mets appear poised to trade away some combination of Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Jason Vargas, Todd Frazier and Diaz — the latter of whom was portrayed as a signature offseason acquisition in what proved a near-immediately regrettable trade with the Mariners.
Instead of anchoring the bullpen and reprising his role as one of the game’s premier relievers, Diaz has taken a step back in nearly every category this season. The 25-year-old has seen virtually every one of his rate stats — strikeout, walk, home-run, ground-ball, swinging-strike, hard-hit and opponent chase — trend in the wrong direction. His premium velocity has held strong, as he’s averaged 97.2 mph on his heater, but the across-the-board results for Diaz have been ugly. It doesn’t help him that the Mets’ defense is awful, but he’s sitting on a bloated 4.95 ERA and has already allowed more runs, hits and homers in 40 innings this season than he did in 72 1/3 frames last year. A 3.24 xFIP and 2.87 SIERA each portend better days, but it’s tough to understate what a disappointing season it’s been for Diaz so far.
All of that said, Diaz appears healthy and still possesses an elite arsenal of pitches. Paired with the fact that he’s not eligible for arbitration until this winter and can be controlled through the 2022 season, Diaz’s plus raw stuff surely gives other clubs confidence that he can be fixed (be it through pitch selection, a mechanical adjustment, improved defense behind him, etc.). The Boston bullpen has lacked established talent all season, and the relief corps has been particularly problematic this summer.
As for the Mets, they seemingly hope to structure their 2020 rotation around 2018 Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and Stroman — a fine one-two combination, to be sure — and believe they’ll get more in trading away others than they surrendered to acquire Stroman. While they can’t unscramble the egg, so to speak, and recoup the value they lost in dealing Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista to the Mariners (while taking on half the remaining money on Robinson Cano‘s deal), the apparently forthcoming slate of trades should indeed replenish their farm to an extent. Syndergaard has more trade value than Stroman did, and Diaz should fetch some quality young talent if he is indeed shipped off.
Nonetheless, it’d be a dizzying sequence of moves that wouldn’t clearly leave the Mets better off than they started. While it’s commendable, on the one hand, that the team continues to eye contention in the short-term rather than acquiesce to the growing trend of large-scale rebuilds, the tightrope act the Mets look to be attempting is rife with risk. Perhaps moving Diaz and Syndergaard can each net a near-MLB-ready asset or two, but it’s not at all clear that they’d be in a better position with Stroman and those theoretical young assets. Stroman himself isn’t a particularly controllable player, after all, as he’ll be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason. If things go south again next year, he’d likely be traded as a rental for less than the Mets paid to acquire him. And, in moving Diaz by Wednesday, they’d open a need for further late-inning bullpen help in the offseason — the very same need that led to this situation.