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Orix Buffaloes To Post Masataka Yoshida

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post outfielder Masataka Yoshida, according to a report from Yahoo Japan, making him eligible to explore opportunities with MLB clubs. (hat tip to JJ Cooper from Baseball America and Jason Coskrey on Twitter.) The Japanese-language link lists the Yankees, Mariners, and Blue Jays as those with interest.

Yoshida, 29, made his NPB debut with the Buffaloes in 2016 and has since established himself as a key contributor at the plate. In 2022, he played in 119 games, hitting 21 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .335/.447/.561. That level of production and Yoshida’s age should lead to him garnering plenty of interest from North American teams.

This year’s market for free agent outfielders isn’t huge in terms of quantity. MLBTR’s list of the top free agents featured Aaron Judge in the top spot and Brandon Nimmo at number nine. Those guys are both likely to receive nine-figure deals, but then there’s only a few guys capable of everyday jobs in the middle of the list. Joc Pederson accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Giants, leaving Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger and Jurickson Profar as some of the few mid-market options. Then there are some guys likely to require less cost but with injury risks, such as Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley.

Teams will likely have wide variance in how they evaluate Yoshida, but it’s unlikely he will earn a contract that rivals the top-market guys. Seiya Suzuki was another highly-touted slugger who was posted a year ago and he eventually signed with the Cubs for five years and $85MM. He was 27 years old at the time, two years younger than Yoshida is now. That likely makes it difficult for Yoshida to beat Suzuki’s guarantee, though it’s possible some team values him significantly higher than the Cubs valued Suzuki. For the teams that miss out on the top free agent outfielders, Yoshida should add an interesting new option for the next tier of the market.

The fact that the Blue Jays and Mariners are two of the teams listed as being interested in Yoshida is quite interesting, given that those two clubs swung a trade earlier today to send Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto to Seattle. That gives the Blue Jays a clear opening in their outfield mix that they could slot Yoshida into. They do have George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Whit Merrifield, though Merrifield took over as the everyday second baseman down the stretch and could play there again in 2023. They’ve already been connected to Nimmo since the departure of Hernandez but Yoshida could also make sense.

For the Mariners, they now have Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez taking up two spots in their outfield mix, with Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Kyle Lewis on hand as options for a third spot. Winker has been mentioned as being available in trade discussions, but it would be a surprise to see the club fill out that last outfield position and block all of its young options from a path into the regular lineup.

For the Yankees, they have a clear need in the outfield with both Judge and Benintendi having reached free agency recently. They have Harrison Bader in place for center field but will likely be looking to add two outfielders before Opening Day. They have Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on hand but Stanton has largely been a designated hitter for a while and can’t be counted on for everyday action in the outfield while Hicks is coming off a second straight disappointing year at the plate.

Once Yoshida is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Buffaloes, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Buffaloes for 2023.

Yankees Select Randy Vasquez

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The Yankees announced this evening they’ve selected right-hander Randy Vásquez onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Vásquez signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic during the 2018-19 international signing period. A curveball specialist, he recently ranked as the #9 prospect in the New York farm system at Baseball America. The outlet credits him with a low-mid 90s fastball and suggests he could develop into a back-of-the-rotation starter if he makes some strides with his control.

The 24-year-old spent this past season at Double-A Somerset. He made 25 starts and worked 115 1/3 innings, pitching to a 3.90 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 48.3% ground-ball percentage. Those are both solid marks, as is his 8.3% walk rate. He figures to start next season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but has a good chance at debuting in the majors at some point in 2023.

Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo To Multi-Year Deal

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The Yankees and Anthony Rizzo are in agreement to reunite on a two-year deal with a $40MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $17MM salary in 2023 and 2024, followed by a $17MM club option for 2025 with a $6MM buyout.

Rizzo, 33, spent many years with the Cubs, a key part of the club’s core that broke the 108-year curse by winning the 2016 World Series. From 2014 to 2019, he was remarkably consistent and productive, hitting between 27 and 32 home runs in each of those six years. His wRC+ was always between 126 and 155, indicating he was between 26% and 55% above league average at the plate. His wins above replacement tally, according to FanGraphs, was between 3.2 and 5.3 in each of those campaigns.

The next two seasons saw Rizzo slide from those great heights somewhat, though he was still a strong performer. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .222/.342/.414 for a wRC+ of 103. The next year, which included a midseason deal to the Yankees, came in at .248/.344/.440 and a wRC+ of 113.

Despite the slight downturn, he was still above-average at the plate and is generally considered a solid defender at first base. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of the midseason trade. He and the Yankees agreed to a deal that would keep him in the Bronx, with Rizzo earning $32MM over two years, though he could opt out of the final year and its $16MM salary.

Despite dealing with various ailments throughout 2022, he ended up having a nice bounceback campaign. His 32 home runs matched a career high and his .224/.338/.480 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 132. Based on that strong showing, he triggered his opt-out and returned to free agency in search of a larger deal. It’s also been speculated that the upcoming ban on aggressive defensive shifts will help him, given that his left-handed bat and low speed make him particularly vulnerable to those. The Yankees extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him, which he could have accepted and locked in a slight raise over his expected salary. But it seemed he had other suitors, with the Astros being one club known to have interest in him.

3pm Central time today was the deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers, with Rizzo among the 12 who declined, though reports emerged shortly thereafter that he and the Yankees agreed to a longer pact. Rizzo will return to his post at first base and earn $17MM per year, so very close to the QO, but he’ll actually have an AAV slightly ahead of it thanks to the buyout. His $40MM guarantee over two years comes out just barely ahead of the two years and $36MM projected by MLBTR.

By getting Rizzo to put pen to paper, the Yanks have prevented a key bat from departing in free agency. Of course, Rizzo is only the second most important player in this camp, as all eyes are squarely focused on Aaron Judge and whether the Yanks can convince him to stay. With Rizzo’s contract on the books, the club’s 2023 payroll is now around $207MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. Last year, they opened the season at $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, leaving them about $40MM in space before they’re caught up to that difference. Of course, if they are willing to increase their spending beyond last year’s levels, they should have even more to work with.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Rizzo and the Yanks were reuniting on a multi-year deal. Andy Martino of SNY first relayed the two-year plus a club option framework. Jack Curry of YES Network was first on the dollars.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Mets Claim Stephen Ridings From Yankees

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The Yankees announced that right-hander Stephen Ridings was claimed off waivers by the Mets.

Ridings, 27, was drafted by the Cubs in 2016 but was traded to the Royals and later released. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees prior to 2021 and briefly got up the majors as a COVID replacement. He only tossed five innings in that stint, spending most of the year in the minors but putting up very impressive numbers on the farm. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he threw 29 innings with a 1.24 ERA, 38.2% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate.

That was enough to get him added to the Yankee roster prior to the Rule 5 draft one year ago. However, shoulder issues landed him on the 60-day injured list in April and he never returned. He did start a rehab assignment in September, but only got into two minor league games before the offseason arrived.

Various teams are facing roster squeezes this week, since today is the deadline to add prospects to 40-man rosters in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. As such, some other players are going to get nudged out of their spots, and it seems that Ridings was once such player for the Yanks.

For the Mets, they are looking to rebuild essentially an entire bullpen as they saw Edwin Diaz, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter all reach free agency as the season ended. They have already re-signed Diaz to return as their closer but they will have a lot of work to do in order to get the entire staff ready for 2023. Ridings has injury concerns but has yet to reach arbitration and still has option years remaining, meaning there’s little cost for the Mets to take a look and see how his arm looks going forward.

Astros Prioritizing Anthony Rizzo In First Base Search

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The defending World Series champions head into the offseason without many holes on the roster, but first base is a notable exception. The Astros got just a .235/.285/.371 showing from the bat-first position this past season, and they’ve seen both Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini hit the open market.

With J.J. Matijevic and Yainer Díaz standing as the primary in-house options at the start of the offseason, the Astros are virtually certain to add first base help in some capacity. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Houston has set its sights on Anthony Rizzo as its top free agent target at the position. Rosenthal writes they’ve also expressed some interest in José Abreu and Gurriel as potential fallbacks.

Rizzo is back on the free agent market for the second straight offseason, although he’s facing a key decision in the first few days this time around. The Yankees tagged the left-handed hitter with a qualifying offer last week, just days after Rizzo declined a $16MM player option. Rizzo and his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management have until tomorrow at 4:00 pm EST to decide whether to accept that $19.65MM offer from New York or to turn it down — presumably in search of a multi-year pact.

Of course, the Yankees are among the most direct competitors to the Astros atop the American League. Houston and New York were top two in the Junior Circuit in regular season record and met in the AL Championship Series this year. The Astros handily controlled the Yankees in the postseason, but Rosenthal suggests the opportunity to poach a key bat from New York would be an added bonus for Houston as they try to remain atop the perch.

Doing so would require forfeiting a draft choice, as Rizzo would have to reject the Yankees’ QO to sign with Houston. The Astros neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing payments this year, so they’d be stripped of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space to sign a qualified free agent. The Yankees would receive a compensatory pick if Rizzo signed elsewhere, but that selection would only come after the fourth round since New York did surpass the CBT threshold this year.

It seems far likelier the Yankees would prefer to see Rizzo stick around for another season than to collect that modest compensation, although it remains to be seen whether the first baseman’s camp will feel he could top the terms of the qualifying offer. Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee (with the aforementioned opt-out capability) last winter coming off a .248/.344/.440 showing. He had a more impressive .224/.338/.480 line this year, matching a career-high with 32 home runs. It’d be understandable if Rizzo were looking to beat last winter’s deal building off a better platform season, but he’s now 33 years old and would require teams forfeiting a draft choice to sign him this time around — or, in the Yankees’ case, relinquishing the chance at a compensatory pick were they to bring him back.

Aside from Rizzo, the top free agent first basemen available are Abreu and Josh Bell. Neither player was eligible for a qualifying offer this winter, but each could prove more costly than Rizzo. Even after a down second half, Bell looks likely to land a three or four-year deal heading into his age-30 season off a .266/.362/.422 showing between the Nationals and Padres. Abreu is soon to be 36 and will be limited to shorter-term offers, but he hit .304/.378/.446 with the White Sox and could land the largest per-year salary of anyone in the first base class.

Gurriel and Mancini are among the lower-tier options, with the former having been a career-long member of the organization. Gurriel was the AL batting champion as recently as 2021, but he mustered only a .242/.288/.360 regular season showing this year before an excellent 12-game run in the playoffs. Mancini looks less likely to be back after struggling with the Astros following a deadline trade from the Orioles. Houston could also look to the trade market if they come up empty in free agency. They reportedly were in contact with the Rays about Ji-Man Choi before he was dealt to Pittsburgh, while Rhys Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez and Joey Meneses are among speculative trade candidates.

Hanging over all the Astros’ early offseason interest is a lack of front office clarity. After the team parted ways with general manager James Click last week, the team is without a presently stable baseball operations hierarchy. Owner Jim Crane is known to have taken an active role in the team’s decision-making, while Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported over the weekend that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus were handling day-to-day operations.

Yankees Select Jimmy Cordero

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The Yankees announced that they have added right-hander Jimmy Cordero to their 40-man roster.

Cordero, 31, logged 83 innings of MLB action across the 2018-2020 time frame, putting up a 4.55 ERA in that time. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in March of 2021, wiping out that entire season. The White Sox outrighted him at the end of that campaign.

He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2022 and was able to return to the mound by June. He eventually made 32 appearances for the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In 38 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.09 ERA, along with a incredible 31.8% strikeout rate and 51.7% ground ball rate.

Based on that strong showing, he’s earned his way back onto a 40-man roster. He has one option year remaining, which will allow the Yankees to use him as an optionable depth arm in 2023. He has between two and three years of MLB service time, meaning they can keep him around for years to come if he continues to hang onto that roster spot.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Yankees Select Jhony Brito, Matt Krook

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The Yankees announced they’ve selected pitchers Jhony Brito and Matt Krook onto the 40-man roster. New York also outrighted outfielder Tim Locastro off the roster, and the speedster elected minor league free agency upon clearing waivers.

Both Brito and Krook have played seven seasons in the minor leagues. That’d have given the right to elect free agency this evening if the Yankees didn’t place them on the 40-man roster. New York clearly values both enough to keep them from hitting the open market, with each player cracking a 40-man for the first time.

Brito, 25 in February, is a former amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic. He’s a quality strike-thrower, and Baseball America wrote this summer that he could develop into a back-of-the-rotation starter. The righty split this year between Double-A Somerset and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, working to a 2.96 ERA through 112 2/3 combined innings. He only struck out 20% of opponents but had a tiny 7.7% walk rate.

Krook spent the whole year in Scranton, starting 22 of 29 appearances. The University of Oregon product, a fourth-round draftee back in 2016, pitched to a 4.09 ERA over 138 2/3 frames. He had a solid 25.7% strikeout percentage but walked an elevated 12.1% of batters faced. The left-hander is generally regarded by evaluators as a likely future reliever.

Locastro, a 30-year-old outfielder, has seen sporadic action for the Yankees in each of the last two seasons. He appeared in 38 games this year but worked mostly as a late-game entrant based on his speed and defense. Locastro hit .186/.239/.349 in 46 plate appearances this year and is a career .227/.325/.331 hitter. He spent most of the season in Scranton, putting up a .240/.332/.395 line over 47 games.

Yankees To Make Qualifying Offer To Anthony Rizzo

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The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.

For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.

Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.

Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.

Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.

Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.

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