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Market Chatter: White Sox, Zunino, Kimbrel, Cards, Giants, Phils, Yanks

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What role will the White Sox play in this free agent market? It’s an open question whether the club will come away with any significant players, but it also seems increasingly likely that it will be heavily involved at all levels of the market. MLBTR did not pick the South Siders to land any of the top fifty free agents, but as noted in that post, the club could pursue quite a few of the players listed. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi even names the White Sox as potential pursuers of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out the case for the Sox to spend (subscription link), while Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the club is expressing an inclination to “take a step forward now.” Meanwhile, on the other side of town, indications remain that the Cubs will not spend a big chunk of change this winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post is the latest to report (Twitter link).

Clearly, the White Sox are an interesting team to watch. Even if it’s arguably a bit premature for significant investments, it certainly doesn’t hurt that they play in the sport’s worst overall division. Elsewhere …

  • The competition in the AL West seems to be driving the Mariners to sell. It’s unclear as yet how deep the cuts will go, but talks are already opening up. The M’s are chatting with the Rays about catcher Mike Zunino, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). With two years of control remaining, the 27-year-old backstop presents an interesting alternative to the free agent market for catchers. He’s an inconsistent but high-powered offensive performer who is generally seen as a quality defender.
  • The Cardinals and incumbent Red Sox are among the suitors for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kimbrel is among the players who appear to be candidates to land earlier-than-usual contracts, by Morosi’s reckoning. (He mentions a few possible landing spots for others on his list, though it’s not apparent that the connections are based upon more than his analysis.)
  • Certainly, it seems the motivation is there for the Cardinals to pursue significant players. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the St. Louis front office is looking hard at ways to improve. GM Mike Girsch says the team has a competitive roster as things stand, but wants to exit the offseason with “a division-leading roster.” The piece is full of worthwhile reading for Cards fans, particularly those interested in gaining some perspective on the team’s market positioning in relation to Harper and Machado. All told, it seems reasonable not to rule the Cards out as a possible pursuer of any free agent.
  • Manny and Bryce are popular considerations for most teams, of course, even if they won’t realistically be pursued by all that many organizations. The Giants are perhaps a likelier suitor than may be evident from a passing glance, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. While the San Francisco organization struggled last year, has quite a few big contracts on the books, and doesn’t currently have a GM in place, Shea says that this kind of ownership-driven decision could still be pursued.
  • Lost in the hype for those popular young free agents is the never-ending search for pitching. While the rotation was and is a strong suit for the Phillies, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. Indeed, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes, it could make sense for the organization to use some trade assets to add a starter — in addition, of course, to pursuing a superstar position player on the open market. Salisbury tabs southpaws Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and James Paxton of the Mariners as two particular names to watch.
  • Likewise, as they consider their pitching options, the Yankees will look at the still-developing trade market. Per Heyman, via Twitter, the Yanks have at least some level of interest in the top arms that have newly entered the sphere of trade candidates. New York’s brass will meet with their counterparts with the Indians, who are dangling Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees are also said to have some interest in Paxton. Those three are among the game’s better starters, so it’s hardly surprising to hear the connections.

Yankees Interested In Re-Signing CC Sabathia; Sonny Gray Drawing Trade Interest

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters today and expressed a desire to re-sign lefty CC Sabathia while also adding that “a lot” of teams have reached out to express trade interest in Sonny Gray (Twitter links via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand).

Despite the fact that Cashman has all but admitted he expects to trade Gray, rotation stability will be an area of focus for the Yankees’ front office this winter. With Sabathia and J.A. Happ hitting the open market, Jordan Montgomery out early in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and Gray likely to be moved, the only experienced arms slotted into New York’s 2019 rotation are Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. There’s plenty of internal depth in the form of Justus Sheffield, Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Chance Adams, among others, but a team with division title aspirations and the Yankees’ payroll capacity is likely to bolster that group in notable fashion.

[Related: New York Yankees depth chart]

The 38-year-old Sabathia, presumably, wouldn’t be viewed as more than a back-of-the-rotation option. However, he’s been an integral part of the team for the past decade and, despite his age and ongoing knee issues, he enjoyed a very solid 2018 season. In 153 innings (29 starts), the veteran Sabathia worked to a 3.65 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike and chase rates were the best they’d been since 2012, and his fastball velocity still checked in a bit north of 90 mph — roughly in line with his past four seasons.

Sabathia has already indicated that he hopes to continue pitching in 2019, though his recent success and what figures to be a relatively reasonable price tag could lead to interest elsewhere. While Sabathia is surely open to a reunion with the Yankees, he suggested back in September that he planned to continue pitching even if it meant signing elsewhere (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Marc Carig). The Vallejo, Calif. native did draw interest from the Angels last winter, and speculatively speaking, he’d have plenty of options on the West Coast if he wished to play closer to home.

As for Gray, the right-hander was shelled more often than not when pitching at Yankee Stadium in 2018 but thrived on the road, so it’s not surprising to see numerous clubs expressing interest. Gray’s fastball velocity held strong in 2018, and his swinging-strike rate (10.1 percent) was right in line with that of a league-average starter. Gray’s ground-ball, strikeout and home-run rates were all sharp, as well. The Yankees seemingly altered his pitch selection without much success in ’18, as he threw fewer four-seamers and more curves and two-seamers than ever before.

It’s easy to see why several clubs in larger parks would carry interest — especially if they believe that a return to a more traditional pitch mix for Gray would help him inch toward his peak form. He’s something of a pricey roll of the dice, depending on the interested party, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gray to earn $9.1MM in 2019 — his final season of arbitration eligibility. But Gray’s track record, home/road splits and some solid peripheral metrics place him among the game’s more intriguing buy-low pieces this offseason.

Yankees Rumblings: Machado, Harper

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With questions along the left side of their infield, the Yankees will at least “look into” signing free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that adding pitching is their top priority. Joel Sherman of the New York Post doesn’t expect the Yankees to sign either Machado or free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, writing that they’ve “never seemed infatuated with” the latter. Instead of splurging on either of them, Sherman looks for the Yankees to spread money around on their rotation, bullpen and lineup, for which they may seek a “versatile lefty bat” such as Marwin Gonzalez.

Yankees Claim Hanser Alberto From Rangers

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The Yankees announced that they’ve claimed infielder Hanser Alberto off waivers from the Rangers. Their 40-man roster is up to a total of 37 players.

Alberto, 26, will give the Yankees a bit of infield depth after the loss of Didi Gregorius to Tommy John surgery last month. He’s far from a certainty to survive the season on New York’s 40-man roster, however, as he’s only a career .192/.210/.231 hitter through 192 plate appearances. On the other hand, Alberto hasn’t had much big league time to date and has been impressive in parts of four Triple-A campaigns, hitting .309/.330/.438 through exactly 1000 plate appearances. He has notable experience at every infield slot other than first base.

Yankees Announce New One-Year Agreement With Brett Gardner

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The Yankees announced Wednesday that they’ve agreed to terms on a new one-year contract with outfielder Brett Gardner after declining the $12.5MM club option on his previous contract. In other words, the veteran Gardner, a client of Pro Star Management, will return to the Yankees organization on a more affordable one-year pact. Specifically, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) that he’ll earn $7.5MM in 2019 under the new arrangement.

Brett Gardner | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Gardner’s club option came with a $2MM buyout as part of the $52MM guarantee on that four-year pact, so by picking up the option, the Yankees would’ve promised him an additional $10.5MM. In essence, then, the new contract will save the Yankees $3MM over simply exercising the option as previously constructed.

Gardner turned 35 in August and is coming off his worst offensive season as a big league regular, having batted .236/.322/.368 through 609 plate appearances. But he remained a disciplined hitter, walking in 10.7 percent of his trips to the plate and striking out just a 17.6 percent clip even as his power faded a bit. Gardner’s 12 home runs were his second-fewest of the past half-decade, while his 16 steals were tied for his lowest mark in that same span.

Even though he swiped fewer bags, however, Fangraphs credited him as one of the game’s elite baserunners based on his efficiency (caught just twice) and his ability to take extra bases on balls in play (first to third, second to home, etc.). Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference credit Gardner at roughly 2.5 wins above replacement despite a relatively shaky performance at the plate.

Gardner again figures to pair with Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the Yankees’ outfield rotation. If Jacoby Ellsbury is able to make it back to the field after missing the entire 2018 season, then he’d also be in the mix for playing time. Prospect Clint Frazier, whose season was shortened by concussion issues, remains in the upper levels of the organization as a depth option and a potential starter down the line. Gardner and Hicks can both become free agents next season.

There’s been plenty of talk about the possibility of Bryce Harper landing with the Yankees for the past few years, and while the return of Gardner to the Bronx crowds the outfield mix, it also surely wouldn’t stand in the way of the Yankees pursuing a deal if they felt the price was right. As last winter’s addition of Stanton to an already solid outfield illustrated, many teams will pursue top-end talent even if there isn’t a glaring need. (Milwaukee’s additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich stand out as another of the many examples.) That’s not to say that Harper is Bronx-bound, of course, but rather to underscore that the Yankees’ reunion with Gardner almost certainly doesn’t preclude them from pursuing Harper or any other marquee addition.

AL East Notes: Machado, Gardner, Nunez, Red Sox

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The Yankees baseball operations and scouting departments are “lukewarm” on free agent Manny Machado, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. Brian Cashman has not been shy about his pursuit of Machado in the past, but the third-baseman-turned-shortstop’s antics during this postseason may have slowed what otherwise could have been a more aggressive pursuit of the infielder in free agency. This isn’t to say the Yankees won’t end up signing Machado, but the questioning of Machado’s hustle and baseball ethic certainly allow the Yankees, as well as other teams, to take a more understandably patient approach in regards to his free agency. Martino adds (via Twitter) that the biggest variable still in play is the Steinbrenner family and whether or not Boston’s World Series win will prompt an aggressive mandate in regards to either Machado or fellow free agent stud Bryce Harper.

But that’s not all that’s happening in the AL East…

  • The Yankees have a $12.5MM option on Brett Gardner with a $2MM buyout for next season. Gardner, the longest-tenured Yankee, expressed an interest in coming back, but it remains to be seen if there will be a room in a crowded Yankee outfield that includes holdovers Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Brian Cashman and his lieutenants have held three days of scouting meetings to craft their strategy heading into the offseason, with  starting pitching figuring to be the priority. Regarding Gardner, the team could buyout his contract and look to bring him back at a discounted rate, but whether the 35-year-old outfielder would be amenable to such an arrangement is unclear. In 2018, Gardner appeared in 140 games, slashing .236/.322/.368 (2.8 rWAR).
  • Not that this would be a surprise, but Boston’s Eduardo Nunez is likely to pick up his $5MM option for next season, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Despite his occasional postseason heroics, it was a tough season for Nunez, who slashed only .256/.289/.388 during the regular season. The .321/.353/.539 Nunez hit in 38 games in 2017 after being acquired midseason feels like a distant memory, but he can still provide some value off the bench as a versatile infielder and right-handed compliment to young stud Rafael Devers.
  • As you ready yourself to dive into baseball’s transaction season, take a minute to read this piece from the Athletic’s Tim Britton about the Red Sox staffer charged with ushering the young players of Boston’s minor league system through each step of their development. Raquel Ferreira is one of the highest ranking women in Major League Baseball and one of the unsung heroes of Boston’s stellar development team. Her title is vice president of major-league and minor-league operations, but that hardly describes the impact she’s had in the twenty years since she joined the Red Sox as an administrative assistant. Ferreira handles everything from managing the logistics of player family travel to walking new players through the basics of minor-league orientation, as she did with Xander Bogaerts when he first signed out of Aruba and thought he had to spend an entire year at each minor-league level. 

David Robertson: Why I’m Representing Myself In Free Agency

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David Robertson just finished another successful season in the Yankees’ bullpen.  That’s been a regular occurrence in his 11-year MLB career, with a stop in Chicago as well.  Robertson, 34 in April, owns a 2.88 career ERA and a 12.0 K/9.  Several years ago, David and his wife Erin founded High Socks For Hope, a non-profit organization focused on disaster relief as well as helping homeless, disabled or destitute veterans.  We urge MLBTR readers to consider a donation.

Earlier this month, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported Robertson was choosing to represent himself in free agency.  MLBTR reached out to Robertson and asked for his thought process behind this unique decision.  His guest post follows.

At this point in my life and career, no one else understands my wants and needs more than myself. After recognizing this, I made the decision to forgo using an agent since I no longer feel as though I need a middle man. I know what I want in a contract, I’m aware of what I can offer to teams, and teams are aware of my abilities.

I’m sure there is a lot of speculation regarding my choice. One thing I want to address is that this decision has nothing to do with my former agent. He is a great guy and has become a close friend of mine. He did a great job representing me for over a decade and I will always appreciate that. But I believe all players need to pay close attention to what they do and their own career path. I wouldn’t recommend self representation to just anyone – heck I wouldn’t recommend it to the majority of players. However, being a guy that’s hung around long enough to know what I can offer a team and what I would like in return, I feel I’m best suited to have all the discussions necessary to figure out my next contract.

A lot of people have and will question my decision. It’s not common to see a player take this path and I’m aware of that and the potential obstacles I may face by doing so. But in the end, I made this decision for myself and my family and for now I’m going to stick with it. I believe I have a lot to offer a team on and off the field and I know I will end up in the right place.

Yankees Reportedly Aren't Expected To Re-Sign Andrew McCutchen

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Brian Cashman: Yankees Sticking With Gary Sanchez

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Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is coming off a disappointing season in which he endured plenty of criticism for both his underwhelming offensive performance and his subpar pitch blocking behind the plate. Nevertheless, New York will again rely on Sanchez as its starting backstop in 2019, general manager Brian Cashman recently told ESPN Radio’s Michael Kay (hat tip to Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues). “We know what he’s capable of doing,” Cashman said. “And I’m already getting phone calls to be honest from clubs trying to knock on our door to see if he’s available. And he’s not … He will be our catcher.” Sanchez was the game’s best hitting catcher from 2016-17, a 754-plate appearance span in which he batted .284/.354/.568 with 53 home runs, but dropped to .186/.291/.406 with 18 HRs in 374 PA in 2018. A .197 batting average of balls in play (down from .308 the previous two seasons) played a part in that, though, and Statcast suggests Sanchez deserved much better offensive numbers than his bottom-line results. Perhaps thanks in part to that data, not to mention his past production, it appears the Yankees are counting on a return to form in 2019 from the soon-to-be 26-year-old. Sanchez is slated to play his final pre-arb season next year, meaning he’ll earn a bargain salary. That only adds to Sanchez’s appeal for the Yankees and the teams that have inquired about him.

Extension Candidate: Aaron Hicks

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In shortstop Didi Gregorius and center fielder Aaron Hicks, the Yankees entered the offseason with two obvious extension candidates among their position players. But since the Yankees’ season ended Oct. 9, when the Red Sox bounced them from the ALDS, Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Consequently, Gregorius will miss a large chunk of next season – his contract year – which could make him a more logical non-tender candidate than someone who’s up for an extension. That leaves Hicks, who’s also set to become a free agent a year from now. Considering Hicks’ production over the past couple seasons, perhaps the Yankees will work to prevent him from reaching the open market any time soon.

New York bought fairly low on Hicks in 2015, seven years after he went 14th overall in the 2008 draft, when it acquired him from Minnesota for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time that it was a surprise the Twins gave up on Hicks on the heels of an encouraging season. After Hicks was essentially a non-factor in a combined 150 games from 2013-14, he managed 2.0 fWAR in 97 contests and 390 plate appearances in his final season as a Twin. Along the way, the switch-hitter mixed approximately league-average offensive production (.256/.323/.398 with 11 home runs – good for a 96 wRC+) with quality base running (13 steals on 16 attempts) and plus defense in center field (two DRS, 6.9 UZR).

Upon landing Hicks – who was then 26 years old – Yankees general manager Brian Cashman declared, “We think Aaron Hicks is an everyday player.”

Cashman’s assessment looked wildly optimistic in Hicks’ first season in the Bronx, though, as he endured a horrid campaign in which he managed minus-0.2 fWAR in 361 PA. While Hicks was fine in the field, his offensive production plummeted. Among MLB hitters who racked up at least 350 PA, Hicks logged the eighth-worst wRC+ (64), batting a weak .217/.281/.336. And when he did get on base, Hicks swiped just three bags on seven tries.

To Hicks’ credit, he put 2016 way behind him in the ensuing season, even though he wasn’t a regular at the outset of the campaign. All told, Hicks slashed an outstanding .266/.372/.475 (126 wRC+) and offered easily above-average production against both right- and left-handed pitchers. He also registered solid power numbers (15 homers, .209 ISO) with appealing walk and strikeout rates (14.1 percent BB, 18.6 percent K), and chipped in 10 steals on 15 attempts. With another season of high-end defense factored in, the big-armed Hicks was worth 3.3 fWAR over 361 PA. The only problem? He went on the disabled list with an oblique strain on two occasions, thus limiting him to 88 games.

Until 2018, Hicks only had one 100-game season on his resume. However, Hicks is now coming off a career-best 137-game, 581-PA campaign in which he truly emerged as the full-time player Cashman thought the Yankees were getting when they landed him. Hicks essentially matched his 2017 rates and continued to fare nicely against both righties and lefties, but he did so over a much larger sample en route to a 4.9-fWAR showing. While Hicks’ slash line dropped a tad to .248/.366/.467, his wRC+ increased to 127. Statcast data backs up that production, as there was little difference between Hicks’ weighted on-base average (.360) and his xwOBA (.365). The 29-year-old helped the Yankees’ cause by mashing 27 homers with a .219 ISO, putting up terrific K/BB numbers (15.5 percent and 19.1 percent, respectively), stealing 11 of 13 bags and, per FanGraphs, contributing elite base running in general.

If there’s one statistical gripe with Hicks’ season, it’s that the advanced metrics didn’t particularly like his defense. After he totaled a whopping 15 DRS – including 12 in center – in 2017, he fell to minus-3 this past season. UZR (0.7) and Outs Above Average (minus-3) weren’t all that bullish on Hicks’ work, either. No matter, Hicks was still one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in 2018, and if the Yankees expect that to continue, they may try to lock him up in the coming months.

The question: How much might it cost New York to extend Hicks? Although several outfielders have signed extensions over the past couple years, none are that comparable to Hicks in production and/or his closeness to free agency. One possible exception is Charlie Blackmon, who – like Hicks now – had five-plus years of service time and was only a season away from free agency at this time a year ago. Blackmon ended up inking a five-year, $94MM guarantee to stay in Colorado last spring, when he had just begun his age-31/32 season. While Blackmon garnered that contract as a player who was a couple years older than Hicks is now, the former also offered a more accomplished track record. Blackmon was a two-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger recipient, an NL batting champion and a past MVP candidate when the Rockies ponied up for him. Hicks doesn’t have any such honors on his resume.

If Blackmon’s deal is out of reach for Hicks, perhaps one of the recent big-money contracts given to a center fielder in free agency would be more realistic. A pair of center fielders – the Cardinals’ Dexter Fowler and the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain – scored five-year contracts worth $82.5MM and $85MM, respectively, on the open market over the previous two winters. Fowler inked his pact on the brink of his age-31 season, while Cain signed his as a soon-to-be 32-year-old. Age is on Hicks’ side in both cases, then; however, like Blackmon, both Fowler and Cain had more established track records than Hicks when they signed, and it helped that they had multiple teams bidding on them in free agency.

While the comparisons are imperfect, Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports likely wouldn’t be out of their depth to push for an extension in the neighborhood of the contracts Fowler and Cain received. He still has another full season to play before he turns 30, after all, and is fresh off back-to-back years in which he was among the game’s premier center fielders. Whether the Yankees will consider an extension for Hicks this offseason is unclear, especially considering fellow outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier are under long-term control, and they may pursue Bryce Harper in free agency. For now, Hicks is projected to play 2019 for $6.2MM – a bargain in light of what he brought to the table from 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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