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Logan O’Hoppe To Miss 4-6 Months With Torn Labrum

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Angels manager Phil Nevin told reporters (including Sam Blum of The Athletic) today that catcher Logan O’Hoppe has a torn labrum on his left (non-throwing) shoulder that will require surgery. The 23-year-old catcher, who was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday, is expected to miss four to six months, potentially putting his season in jeopardy.

O’Hoppe was acquired by the Angels at the trade deadline last season in the deal that sent outfielder Brandon Marsh to the Phillies. A consensus top-50 prospect in the sport entering the 2023 season, O’Hoppe earned the Angels’ starting catching job out of camp this season despite having just five games of big league experience under his belt as Max Stassi began the season on the injured list. The youngster was off to an impressive start this season, with a .283/.339/.547 slash line across 16 games that was good for a wRC+ of 142.

Losing such a productive bat for most, if not all, of the remainder of the season is a massive blow to the Angels, who have largely seen their offense struggle outside of superstars Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, with only O’Hoppe and outfielder Hunter Renfroe posting an above average wRC+ so far this season among the rest of the club’s offense.

In addition to losing O’Hoppe’s bat, the Angels now find themselves without either half of their usual starting tandem, as Stassi does not appear to be close to a return from the hip ailment that sidelined him at the start of the season. Until Stassi returns, the Angels figure to use Matt Thaiss, who opened the season as the club’s third catcher, and journeyman Chad Wallach behind the plate. Neither of those options inspire the same confidence that O’Hoppe would, as Wallach sports just a 59 wRC+ in 274 career plate appearances since his MLB debut with the Reds in 2017, while Thaiss only began catching in 2021 and has a career wRC+ of 81 in 298 plate appearances.

Given the worrying situation behind the plate for Anaheim, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club explore external catching options to supplement their current group. Robinson Chirinos and Austin Romine are available on the free agent market, while Gary Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro are among the catchers with significant big league experience who are on minor league deals in other organizations.

Pirates Extend Contract Of Manager Derek Shelton

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The Pirates have extended the contract of manager Derek Shelton, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. The terms of the deal are not yet known.

The Bucs are off to a hot start to the season, sitting at 14-7 entering play Saturday, good for second place in the NL Central as they look to emerge from a lengthy rebuild. The 52-year-old skipper has overseen plenty of lean years in Pittsburgh, and so his career managerial record of 156-249 with the Pirates is not necessarily a reflection on his management.

It’s always challenging to assess the performance of a manager when the team is deep in a rebuild and focused more on the prospects in its minor league system than the big league roster. As such, the back-to-back 100-loss seasons Shelton oversaw likely wouldn’t have been much different with another manager at the helm. Evidently, the franchise is comfortable with the direction they’re in with Shelton at the helm.  While 21 games is a small sample size, the Pirates were more aggressive than the past in free agency this winter and it won’t hurt that Shelton’s team is getting results. Here’s what GM Ben Cherington had to say to The Athletic last year on Shelton:

“I love working with Shelty and this staff. They work their tails off every day and care so much about getting this right. I’m so confident at the level of effort this staff puts in and I’m looking forward to this group benefiting from the fruits of their labor. I think they will as our roster matures and gets stronger.”

Shelton was hired by the Pirates after a tumultuous 2019 season which saw the team lose 93 games, deal with clubhouse problems and ultimately dismiss general manager Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle. Cherington and Shelton were brought in to oversee bringing the club back to relevance, and while the past three seasons have been a difficult watch, it does appear that the team is close to turning a corner.

Prior to joining the Pirates, Shelton had served as the Twins’ bench coach. He had interviewed for a number of other managerial openings, but the Pirates were the first to hand him the top job.

Guardians Planning To Promote Logan Allen

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The Guardians have informed reporters, including Mandy Bell of MLB.com, that pitching prospect Logan Allen is the planned starter for Sunday’s game, weather permitting. Allen isn’t currently on the 40-man roster and will require a corresponding move.

The 24-year-old Allen, not to be confused with former Guardian Logan Allen, was selected by the Guards in the second round of the 2020 draft. He has since shot up through the minor leagues, racking up huge strikeout totals along the way. In 2021, he pitched in High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.26 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. He struck out 33.2% of batters faced while walking just 6% of them. Last year, he tossed 132 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His 4.75 combined ERA doesn’t look especially impressive, but the under-the-hood numbers are much nicer. He punched out 31.5% of opponents while giving free passes 9.1% of the time. The ERA was likely inflated by a .335 batting average on balls in play and 68.5% strand rate, both of those being on the unlucky side of typical averages.

Coming into the season, he was ranked the #85 prospect in the game at Baseball America, though he’s since moved up to #80. FanGraphs had him at #57 and ESPN at #53, though he didn’t crack the list at MLB Pipeline. He’s made three starts at Triple-A so far this year with a 1.26 ERA, 34.5% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and 57.6% ground ball rate.

The Guardians have been dealing with a few injuries to their rotation this year, with Triston McKenzie on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain and Aaron Civale on the 15-day IL due to a strained oblique. That pushed Peyton Battenfield and Hunter Gaddis into the mix, though the latter posted a 7.64 ERA in four starts and was optioned to the minors this week. The Guardians have a seemingly never-ending supply of intriguing pitching prospects and will give Allen a shot at taking that open rotation spot this weekend as long as Mother Nature cooperates.

Since Allen is getting promoted a few weeks into the season, he can’t earn a full year of service time the traditional way. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days in the big leagues, or on the injured list, to earn a full year. Allen would fall short of that even if he were to remain in the majors the rest of the way. However, there is one way he could still earn that full year of service, courtesy of the latest collective bargaining agreement. Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who was on at least two of the preseason top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline receives a full year if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. This already happened once when Adley Rutschman finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Julio Rodríguez last year. Rutschman had missed the start of the season on the injured list but was able to get a full year of service regardless.

As mentioned, Allen didn’t crack the MLB Pipeline list but was on the BA and ESPN lists, making him eligible for that full year. But doing so would require him not only sticking on the roster, but thriving enough to earn those votes at year’s end.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Garrett Mitchell Will Likely Require Shoulder Surgery, Putting Season In Jeopardy

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Brewers manager Craig Counsell informed reporters, including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that outfielder Garrett Mitchell’s MRI revealed significant damage. Counsell said that Mitchell will seek a second opinion but surgery is likely and the remainder of his season is in jeopardy. Mitchell had been placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week with a left shoulder subluxation.

Mitchell spoke after Counsell and provided more information to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. He said the plan is to go see Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles on Monday. If it is deemed that surgery is necessary, that will take place the following day.

At this point, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Mitchell will go under the knife, but it seems the most probable course of events. If it does indeed come to pass, it will be a very frustrating setback for Mitchell and the Brewers, given the promising start to his career. Between his debut last season and the start of this year, he’s been in 44 major league contests so far. He’s struck out in a worrisome 40% of his plate appearances but has still managed to be productive. He’s hit five home runs and currently has a batting line of .286/.341/.462, which translates to a 121 wRC+. He’s also stolen nine bases and been graded well for his defensive work in center field.

Whether Mitchell is ultimately out for the remainder of the season or some shorter timeline, the Brewers will be pressing on without him for the foreseeable future. Joey Wiemer, who had been playing right field, took over center field last night and is in there again tonight, pointing to him having the job for now. With Tyrone Taylor also on the injured list, Brian Anderson might now be the regular right fielder. He had been playing third base but that could now fall to Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau. Blake Perkins is also now up with the club and can provide cover at all three outfield spots. Outfield prospect Sal Frelick won’t be an option in the short term, as he has been placed on the injured list in the minors due to a thumb sprain, per Hogg.

Kris Bubic To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Royals left-hander Kris Bubic will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That will put him out of action for the remainder of 2023 and a portion of the 2024 season as well. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 14-18 months. Bubic was placed on the 15-day injured list last week but the club will inevitably move him to the 60-day once they need a roster spot.

It’s a very unfortunate setback for Bubic, 25, who was showing some positive signs here in 2023. Coming into this year, he had a 4.89 ERA through 309 innings, a somewhat disappointing mark for a guy who was selected 40th overall in 2018 and had been a touted prospect in the years after that. But through his first three starts this year, he had a 3.94 ERA and possibly was even better than that number would indicate. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and walked just 2.9%, big improvements over his 20% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate coming into the year. He also saw his ground ball rate jump to 52.1%, which was just 44.3% in prior seasons.

This is just three starts and small sample caveats certainly apply, but it’s also worth pointing out that Bubic had added a slider to his repertoire this year. Both Eno Sarris of The Athletic and Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs wrote pieces last week that highlighted Bubic’s improved arsenal in the early parts of the year, suggesting that his better results might have been for real and perhaps could have gotten better going forward. Though his 2023 ERA was about a full run better than his career mark, he had an even shinier 2.71 FIP and 3.45 SIERA. Again, it’s just three starts, but it was backed up by actual changes to his arsenal and might not have been just noise. Bubic and the Royals will now have to wait over a year to test those changes over a larger sample.

It’s obviously a blow for Bubic personally but also for the Royals, who have made some decisions that put their fortunes in the hands of young starters. They have used many of their early draft picks in recent years on pitchers, with not a lot of success. Between 2015 and 2018, Bubic, Brady Singer, Josh Staumont, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Bowlan were all selected in the first 65 picks of their respective drafts. Up until last year, none of that group had found much major league success. Singer finally bucked the trend in 2022 by posting a 3.23 ERA in 153 1/3 innings and it seemed there was a chance that Bubic was following him. But now the latter is out for the remainder of the year and the former is struggling to a 8.14 ERA through his first four starts.

This loss will only compound the various struggles that the Royals are facing right now, as they have limped out to a 4-15 start, with their .211 winning percentage below all MLB teams except for the Athletics. Without Bubic, the Royals will proceed with four regular starters in Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller and Singer. Tonight, Taylor Clarke is serving as an opener in front of Ryan Yarbrough, who figures to get the bulk of the innings. Lynch is on the IL with a shoulder strain but could factor in whenever he’s healthy.

Bubic qualified for arbitration this past offseason as a Super Two player, meaning this is his first of four arb seasons. He and the club agreed to a $2.2MM salary for this year. Even though he’s going to miss the vast majority of the season, he’ll be in line for a similar salary next year, since the arb system is designed so that salaries almost never go down. He can then go through the arbitration system twice more after that before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

NPB To MLB: 7 Players To Watch

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A new wave of NPB players have chosen to pursue their big-league dreams in recent years. Just this past offseason, Kodai Senga signed a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets, Masataka Yoshida signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox, and Shintaro Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Athletics. One offseason prior, Seiya Suzuki signed a five-year, $85MM deal.

Making the move from NPB to MLB is a complicated process. A player needs to have nine seasons of experience on the first team (i.e. the NPB “major league” club, as opposed to their minor league team) before they can become an overseas free agent. At the earliest, a player drafted out of high school becomes a free agent at age 27 and a player drafted out of college becomes one at age 31. This is a long period of time and can take even longer if a player misses time due to injury. Players who want to make the move sooner instead opt to use the NPB-MLB posting system. The posting system grants all 30 MLB teams the right to negotiate with a player after posting, but the team is subject to paying a posting fee based on the amount of guaranteed money in the contract.

The two main difficulties with the posting system are that 1.) players need their team’s permission to be posted, and 2.) players need to wait several years before being classified as “professionals” rather than “amateurs” under Major League Baseball’s international free agency standards. In order to be considered a “professional” and thus be exempt from MLB’s hard-capped bonus pool system for international amateurs, a foreign-born player must be at least 25 years of age and have at least six years of experience in a professional league (NPB, in this case). Shohei Ohtani knew this and chose to pursue a jump to MLB at age 23 anyway, limiting himself to a signing bonus a little north of $2.3MM because his age made him an “amateur.” Had he waited two more years, Ohtani could have potentially commanded 100 times that sum as a “professional” under MLB’s classifications. It was a sizable bet on himself, but it looks like one that will pay off.

Some teams are traditionally open-minded about letting players pursue their MLB dreams, most notably the Nippon Ham Fighters, while other teams such as the Yomiuri Giants and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks have traditionally not given permission to their players when they ask to be posted for MLB clubs.

This series will keep track of NPB players who may be making their way to the MLB in the near future.

Let’s get started with players who may be available in the 2023 offseason.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a 24-year-old right-hander for the reigning Pacific League and Nippon Series champions Orix Buffaloes. He began his career as a starter but moved to the bullpen in 2018 and became one of the best relievers in NPB. He was moved back to the rotation in 2019 and established himself as an elite starter by leading the Pacific League with a 1.95 ERA.

Yamamoto has since become the undisputed ace of NPB. He’s won the Sawamura Award — the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award — and the Pacific League MVP Award in back-to-back seasons. He posted an insane 1.39 ERA, 206 strikeouts, 28% strikeout rate, and 5.4 walk rate in 2021, and followed that up with a 1.68 ERA, 205 strikeouts, a 27.4 strikeout rate, and a 5.6 walk rate in 2022. Yamamoto also won the Gold Glove award in each of those seasons. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote more on Yamamoto back in Februrary. Some scouts believe that Yamamoto is ahead of Senga.

The Pacific League MVP relies on a deep six-pitch repertoire and elite control to pile up strikeouts. Yamamoto primarily leans on his mid-90s fastball, splitter, and curveball, but he occasionally mixes in a cutter, two-seamer, and slider. The right-hander is known for his unique training style, with a focus on flexibility and mobility as well as using javelin-like and hammer-like tools. He also has a personal chef/nutritionist to manage his diet. While he has not had a major injury so far in his career, the only concerns with the Buffaloes ace are his slight frame (5’10″, 175 pounds) and adjusting to the grueling MLB schedule. Although he has not thrown on a four-day rest schedule, he has showcased his durability by throwing over 190 innings in each of the past two seasons.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in his recent 2023 FA class power rankings, Yamamoto’s contract could exceed Masahiro Tanaka’s contract with the Yankees in 2014. Tim wrote: “Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.”

Yamamoto is off to another fantastic start this season. In the two games he’s started so far, he has a 0.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. 

2. Yuki Matsui

Yuki Matsui is a 27-year-old left-handed reliever for the Tohoku Rakuten Eagles. He has a career 2.46 ERA, 31.9% strikeout rate, 201 saves, and 68 holds in 447 appearances. Matsui has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a four-seam fastball that goes up to 96mph but averages between 92-94, a dominant splitter and slider, and a lesser-used curveball. 

Matsui is on track to become a true international free agent this offseason, so he won’t need to utilize the posting system to gauge interest from MLB clubs. Japanese media is already speculating that he may sign with an MLB team. Matsui has said he is focused on the upcoming season but is open to the move. Sports Hochi reported that Matsui and the Eagles have discussed future MLB plans during contract negotiations over the years.  

Matsui first hit the national spotlight as a high school player at the 2012 Summer Koshien Tournament, the Japanese equivalent of March Madness, where he set the tournament record for most strikeouts in a single game with 22, and the longest consecutive strikeouts with 10. He finished that tournament with the most strikeouts in a single tournament by a lefty with 68.

Matsui came into the league as a starter but was moved to the bullpen in 2015 and since then has consistently been one of the best closers in the NPB. Out of the seven seasons he was the primary closer, Matsui recorded over 30 saves in five of them. His only “down” year came in 2018 — he still posted a 3.34 that season — but he bounced back with a career-high 68 appearances and 38 saves in 2019.  He was moved to a starting role in 2020, before ultimately moving back to the bullpen at the end of the season where he has remained until now. Matsui struggled adjusting to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, so that may be a concern moving forward. 

Despite his difficulties at the WBC, Matsui had a terrific start to the season. He’s thrown five shutout innings, recorded four saves and fanned eight of his 18 opponents (44.4%). Dating back to 2021, Matsui has a 1.26 ERA in 99 2/3 innings of relief work.

3. Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga is a 29-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the Yokohama DeNa Baystars. Fans might recognize Imanaga’s name after his start for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic final against Team USA. The left-hander has a 3.24 ERA, 24.3 strikeout rate, 7.3 walk rate and 854 2/3 innings in 136 career starts. He had a career year last season, posting a 2.26 ERA, 23.6 strikeout rate and 5.2 walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. He also recorded his first no-hitter in June. 

The Baystars ace primarily throws four pitches, including a 91-94 mph fastball, a changeup that is close to a split-change, a cutter, and a curveball, while occasionally mixing in a slider. While he does not have an overpowering fastball, he has elite command and uses his changeup to get strikeouts. He had shoulder surgery in 2020 but has made a full recovery, and shoulder trouble hasn’t been a recurring issue for him.

Imanaga has expressed his desire to pitch in the big leagues since 2021 but won’t be an overseas free agent until the 2025 season. Sponichi reported in December that Imanaga planned to sign with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement. The Baystars have never posted a player before, so it is unclear if they are open to posting Imanaga. However, Imanaga is set to become a domestic free agent within NPB this offseason, so if the Baystars do not allow Imanaga to go to the big leagues, he could potentially move to another NPB team.

Imanaga is yet to pitch for the first team this season as the Baystars manage his workload after pitching for Team Japan. He’s completed his minor league starts with no complications and is set to make his regular-season debut with the first team soon. 

4. Kona Takahashi

Kona Takahashi is a 26-year-old right-handed starter for the Saitama Seibu Lions who had his career-best season last year. In his 26 starts, Takahashi recorded a 2.20 ERA and struck out 18.2% of hitters faced in 175 2/3 innings. He was wilder earlier in his career, walking more than 12% of his opponents, but has improved his command more recently. Takahashi has a career 3.55 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, and 9% walk rate in 133 starts. He primarily relies on four pitches: a fastball that sits at around 93-95mph, a splitter, a slider, and a cutter, while occasionally throwing a curveball. 

Takahashi called MLB “the world’s greatest peak” and said he was inspired by former teammate and now Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. “Yusei-san changed my baseball career. I want to give back to him by performing at the highest level and even surpassing him,” Takahashi said. He attended Game 4 of the 2022 World Series in Philadelphia and said “The atmosphere was amazing and I thought that I’d love to pitch here [in MLB].”

Despite Takahashi’s wishes, the Lions may not post him this offseason. Lions GM Hisanobu Watanabe said that there are no plans as of right now to post Takahashi. “We’ve just listened to his [Takahashi’s] wishes at this point. We’ve discussed things of that nature with him before, but it’s not a story of when we are going to post him,” Watanabe said. The right-hander wants to be posted in the near future since the earliest he can earn his overseas free-agent rights is 2026. The good news for Takahashi is that his manager is former New York Met Kazuo Matsui, who is open-minded about the possible move. “If he reaches another level as an ace, he might get closer to that goal,” Matsui said. 

Takahashi is doing his best to reach that next level, with a 0.39 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 23 innings pitched in his three starts. He has not given up a run in 18 consecutive innings.

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa 

Naoyuki Uwasawa is a 29-year-old right-handed starter for the Nippon Ham Fighters who has a 3.29 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 8% walk rate in 148 career starts. The right-hander throws a variety of pitches, including a low-90s fastball, cutter, slider, splitter, knuckle curve, changeup, and a two-seam fastball (usage in that order). His four-seam fastball was hit hard last season, with opponents batting .272 against it. 

Uwasawa announced his desire to pitch in the majors at his contract negotiations last December and requested to be posted in the 2023 offseason. He said that he was inspired when he participated in the 2018 MLB Japan All-Star Series. “I’ve always wondered what it’s like to play in a league with players coming from around the globe, and it’s the type of experience I can’t miss if I have the chance to. I only have a limited amount of time to take on the challenge, so if I have the opportunity I would take it,” Uwasawa said. Uwasawa began working with Driveline last offseason to help prepare his transition to the big leagues, looking to optimize his pitching mechanics and improve the quality of his slider. 

Uwasawa has had a poor start to the season, with a 6.46 ERA and 16.9% walk rate through 15 1/3 innings in his three starts.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

The following players are already some of the biggest stars in the NPB, but are likely unavailable until the 2025-26 offseason due to their age.

1. Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami, nicknamed Mura-Kamisama (Mura-God), is a 23-year-old corner infielder for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. He burst onto the scene in 2019, with 36 home runs and 96 RBIs, winning the Central League Rookie of the Year Award in the process. He was the back-to-back Central League MVP in 2021 and 2022. Murakami has a career slash line of .281/.405/.583, hitting 160 homers and driving in 430 runs, along with a .988 OPS and 166 wRC+. Murakami’s 2022 season was nothing short of historic. He batted .318/.458/.710 with 56 home runs and 134 RBIs, along with a jaw-dropping 1.168 OPS, 221 wRC+ and 10.3 WAR. He became the youngest-ever Triple Crown winner in NPB and set the single season record for home runs hit by a Japanese player. 

Murakami’s leap in 2022 can likely be attributed to overcoming hard-thrown fastballs. Hitting high velocities was a weakness early in his career, with batting averages of .088 in 2019, .167 in 2020, and .229 in 2021 against fastballs thrown over 150 km/h (93.75 mph). In 2022, Murakami hit .327 against those pitches. Consistent growth in this area will be essential to Murakami’s success in MLB, where the average velocity is higher than the NPB. Murakami is not necessarily known for his defense at third base. In 2022, he recorded 15 errors, the second-highest in all of NPB and the most among third basemen. If he cannot improve his defense as he did with his contact against higher velocity, he most likely projects to be a first baseman in MLB.

Murakami signed a three-year deal this past offseason that came with a guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-26 offseason. By 2025, Murakami will be 25 years old and shed his “amateur” status under MLB rules, thus exempting him from the bonus pool system. There is a clause that will allow him to get posted sooner if the age-25 rule is lowered.  

Murakami has had a slow start to the season, hitting just .189/.328/.373 with two homers and a 33.3% strikeout rate in a small sample of 66 plate appearances. The good news is that he is walking in 18.2% of plate appearances, and hitting .375 with runners in scoring position.

2. Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki is a 21-year-old right-handed starter for the Chiba Lotte Marines, known as “The Monster of Reiwa”, who is entering his fourth season in NPB. Sasaki has been highly scouted since his high school days, throwing 100mph fastballs with ease. He was drafted in 2019 by the Marines, who took a patient approach to his development. The 6’3″ right-hander clearly had an outstanding arsenal, but teams were concerned about his thin frame, in-game stamina, and the repeatability of his mechanics. He did not pitch in 2020 and only started in 11 games and pitched 63 1/3 innings in 2021.

The Marines’ patience paid off, with Sasaki quickly becoming one of the most dominant starters in NPB. In his first full year in the Marines’ rotation, the phenom recorded a 2.20 ERA and 1.70 FIP, striking out 35.3% of hitters while walking just 4.7% in 129 1/3 innings. Sasaki became the 16th pitcher in the history of NPB to pitch a perfect game last April, and followed up the performance by throwing eight more perfect innings in his next outing, before getting pulled with 102 pitches. In the 17 perfect innings, Sasaki struck out 33 of the 51 batters faced. Sasaki has a three-pitch mix, a fastball that averages between 99-101mph and tops out at 104mph, a devastating splitter, and a slider. 

As of right now, there is no clear timetable for Sasaki’s jump to Major League Baseball. Sasaki will not hit the professional experience threshold and does not turn 25 years old until 2026, so unless he takes the Ohtani route of posting before age 25, the earliest that Sasaki will make his MLB debut is in 2027. Sasaki said in March that “Before thinking about the timing of moving to the majors, playing in Japan comes first, and I think that things will become more clear after that.”

Sasaki has picked up right where he left off last season and has yet to allow a run in his two starts. Last week, he outdueled Yamamoto and shut down the Buffaloes, only allowing one hit and striking out 11 in seven innings.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move:

Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons

Twins Extend Pablo Lopez

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April 21: The Twins formally announced this morning that they’ve signed Lopez to a four-year extension, covering the 2024-27 seasons. FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the contract breaks down in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2024 and annual salaries of $21.5MM from 2025-27.

April 17: The Twins are keeping their big offseason trade acquisition for the long haul. Minnesota is reportedly in agreement with right-hander Pablo Lopez on a four-year, $73.5MM contract extension. The deal is pending a physical. Lopez is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Lopez, 27, came to the Twins alongside top shortstop prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio in the January trade that sent infielder Luis Arraez to the Marlins. He’s already locked into a $5.45MM salary for the ongoing 2023 season, which is his second of three scheduled arbitration seasons. The new contract with the Twins will buy out Lopez’s final arbitration season and what would’ve been his first three free-agent seasons; once completed, the Twins will have Lopez signed through his age-31 season.

Assuming Lopez would’ve landed somewhere in the $10MM range for his final arbitration season, the contract effectively buys out his first three free-agent years for a combined $63MM, give or take a bit. The deal values Lopez at somewhere around $20-21MM per free-agent season. That annual range takes him past the AAVs that mid-rotation arms like Taijuan Walker ($18MM) and Jameson Taillon ($17MM) agreed to this past offseason.

From a structural standpoint, there are some similarities to the recent extension between the Giants and their own top starter, Logan Webb. That $90MM deal, a record for the three-plus service class, also bought out three free-agent seasons. However, Webb’s deal bought out two arbitration seasons, and his first arbitration salary ($4.6MM) topped that of Lopez ($2.425MM), which helps to explain the gap between the final guarantees on the two deals.

Lopez could certainly have gone the year-to-year route, reaching free agency in advance of his age-29 season and perhaps setting himself up for a five- or even six-year deal in the process. Of course, that’d have been a gamble to some extent, given the ever-present risk of injury that’s inherent to all pitchers. That’s particularly notable for Lopez, who has thrice been on the injured list due to right shoulder troubles to this point in his career.

Through his first four starts with the Twins, Lopez has looked like a star. After pitching to a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 32 starts and 180 innings in 2022, he’s surged out to a 1.73 ERA through four starts and 26 innings with the Twins. Lopez’s 95.4 mph average fastball is a career-best mark, and his 33.7% strikeout rate trounces the 23.2% mark he posted in parts of five seasons in Miami. He’s managed to up his velocity and strikeout rate without sacrificing his pinpoint command; this year’s 6.1% walk rate tops the 6.7% mark he posted in his Marlins career.

Much of Lopez’s success to date can be attributed to a newly unveiled sweeper that has thus far befuddled opposing batters. Opponents are batting just .111 against the pitch with a massive 50% whiff rate, per Statcast. Between that and the gains on his fastball, Lopez is unsurprisingly boasting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. It’s only a sample of four starts, of course, but the results have generally exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for the righty. Time will tell whether he can sustain it all over a larger sample — a .236 BABIP and 89.1% strand rate both seem ripe for regression — but the Twins can only be thrilled with their end of that offseason trade.

With Lopez now locked in through at least the 2027 season, he joins Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton among the focal points of the Twins’ core. The Twins control catcher Christian Vazquez, second baseman Jorge Polanco and righty Chris Paddack through the 2025 season, but Correa, Buxton and now Lopez are the only players on guaranteed deals beyond that ’25 campaign. Of course, the Twins will have plenty of core players in arbitration at that point: closer Jhoan Duran, starter Joe Ryan and corner infielder Jose Miranda among them. Further cost certainty through extensions among that group or touted youngsters like Edouard Julien remain possible.

Looking to strictly the rotation, both Lopez and Ryan are now under club control through the 2027 season — which is slated to be Ryan’s final year of arbitration eligibility. Each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda will be up for free agency at the end of the current season, so it’s understandable that the Twins had extra incentive to lock up their top starter and lock in some additional continuity.

Minnesota also has towering 6’9″ righty Bailey Ober under club control through at least that same 2027 season, and while he opened the season in Triple-A St. Paul, his performance in the big leagues to date suggests he can be a part of that long-term starting staff (3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate in 148 1/3 innings). The aforementioned Paddack is signed through 2025 under the three-year, $12MM deal he signed while rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Other in-house rotation options beyond the current campaign who’ve already had some big league seasoning include prospects Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder, though Winder’s frequent shoulder issues could eventually push him more toward to the bullpen.

Generally speaking, the Twins have shown increased willingness to spend in recent seasons, pushing their payroll up into the $150-160MM range in both 2022 and 2023. Assuming that’ll continue to be the norm in years to come, there’ll be plenty of room to supplement the core down the line. Lopez’s deal will likely land the Twins between $75-80MM in guaranteed money on the 2024 books, followed by something in the vicinity of $90-95MM in 2025 and around $70MM in both 2026-27 (depending on the extension’s exact year-to-year breakdown). The Twins aren’t and never have been at risk of paying the luxury tax, but they’ve also come quite a ways from their days as a perennial bottom-of-the-scale payroll club.

The trade bringing Lopez to Minnesota originally gave the Twins only two years of club control over Lopez, while Miami picked up three years of control over Arraez. The extension with Lopez more than balances out that disparity in club control, and it comes less than two years after the Twins begrudgingly made the decision to trade rotation stalwart Jose Berrios to Toronto after being unable to come to terms on an extension. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the seven-year extension Berrios inked with the Jays hasn’t panned out at all, and the Twins ultimately found their way to a prime-aged starter who was willing to commit to an extension on more favorable terms.

This surely isn’t exactly how they drew it up dating back to that pivotal trade deadline, but the Twins have added some long-term stability both in the lineup and in the rotation and done so without completely clogging the long-term payroll.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a four-year, $73.5MM agreement. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported the sides had agreed to terms.

Diamondbacks Designate Madison Bumgarner For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks have designated left-hander Madison Bumgarner for assignment, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs have formally announced the move. Left-hander Anthony Misiewicz has been recalled from Triple-A Reno to take Bumgarner’s spot on the 40-man roster.

The Bumgarner DFA comes on the heels of three-plus sub-par seasons for Bumgarner in Arizona, where he signed a five-year, $85MM contract prior to the 2020 season. The 33-year-old left-hander has been generally durable but ineffective for the Snakes, pitching to a lowly 5.23 ERA in 363 1/3 innings and 69 starts under that contract.

Things have taken a particularly pronounced downswing in 2023, however, as Bumgarner has been torched for 20 runs (19 earned) on 25 hits and 15 walks with just 10 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. The D-backs have lost three of Bumgarner’s four starts this season, including a seven-run three-inning clunker against the Cardinals yesterday, wherein Bumgarner got into a verbal altercation with St. Louis catcher Willson Contreras after apparently taking objection to Contreras’ reaction to a swing and reaction on a pitch he fouled straight back. The team’s lone victory of the season with Bumgarner on the mound came when he was pulled after 4 2/3 innings, three runs and six walks.

Bumgarner’s current 89.6 mph fastball average is down more than three miles per hour from its 92.9 peak. His 11.1% strikeout rate and 16.7% walk rate are both career-worsts by wide margins, and he’s seen his ability to induce swinging strikes (just  6.3%) and chases off the plate (21.1%) evaporate in this season’s four starts.

In seasons past, the Diamondbacks could perhaps sell themselves on occasional glimmers of hope and at least accept that if nothing else, Bumgarner was a durable innings eater who could somewhat narrowly keep his ERA south of 5.00. The Diamondbacks didn’t enter 2021 or 2022 as hopeful contenders anyhow, after all, and Bumgarner gave them a bridge to some of their starting pitching prospects while those promising young arms continued to develop in the upper minors.

That’s no longer the case in 2023, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco outlined earlier this week in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, arguing within that the D-backs needed to move on as soon as possible. The D-backs entered the ’23 campaign with an emerging, exciting young core headlined by outfielder Corbin Carroll, and they have one of MLB’s top farm systems to further bolster that group in the near future. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are strong rotation arms, and with a talented collection of youth complementing them (e.g. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and, sooner than later, Brandon Pfaadt), the starting pitching outlook is bright.

Arizona is out to an 11-8 start, and while the season is still quite young, expectations have shifted. Bumgarner simply hasn’t been a competitive pitcher for them in any capacity this season, and his body of work in three seasons prior gives little reason to hope for a turnaround. With the division looking more vulnerable than it has in years and the D-backs potentially on the rise, it’s just not feasible to continue on with what increasingly looks like a sunk cost.

Exactly how the rotation shakes out from this point forward remains to be seen. Piecoro tweets that 25-year-old left-hander Tommy Henry is expected to start in Bumgarner’s place next time around, though one would imagine that Pfaadt — one of the sport’s top pitching prospects — will get a look in the near future after opening the season in Triple-A. Veteran Zach Davies is also a factor, though he’s currently out with a strained oblique and figures to be sidelined into next month.

What’s clear is that Bumgarner’s time with the D-backs is virtually over. Given the left-hander’s woeful performance not only in 2023 but throughout his D-backs tenure as a whole, there’s no chance another team will roll the dice on the remaining $34.3MM on his contract. Bumgarner is being paid $23MM in 2023 and is still owed a $14MM salary for the 2024 campaign.

The Diamondbacks could technically place him on outright waivers, but he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary, and no team would claim the contract anyhow. As such, he’ll likely be placed on release waivers in the coming days and, upon clearing, become a free agent who’s eligible to sign with any other club. Any team that signs Bumgarner would only need to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the D-backs owe the lefty, but Arizona is effectively committing to eating close to $34MM in dead money by parting ways with Bumgarner at this juncture of his contract.

Padres Reinstate Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in the majors. The Padres officially reinstated him from the restricted list following the completion of his performance-enhancing drug suspension on Thursday evening. San Diego optioned infielder/outfeilder Brandon Dixon to Triple-A El Paso to open room on the big league roster. The Friars transferred reliever Robert Suarez from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.

Tatis steps into the leadoff spot tonight against Arizona right-hander Ryne Nelson. He’ll play right field in his first MLB contest since October 3, 2021. Tatis is expected to play right field on a near everyday basis in 2023. He lost his former shortstop position when San Diego inked Xander Bogaerts to a $280MM free agent contract over the winter. With Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado rounding out the infield, Tatis gets kicked onto the grass.

While there’ll certainly be some intrigue about how he acclimates to a position at which he has just 151 1/3 innings of MLB experience, the primary question will be how quickly he finds his stride offensively. Tatis was one of the game’s best hitters over his first three seasons, combining to hit .282/.364/.611 between 2019-21. By measure of wRC+, that was the ninth-best offensive output among batters with at least 500 plate appearances.

Whether the 24-year-old can recapture that kind of production remains to be seen. Since his last MLB game, he’s undergone three surgeries — two on the left wrist he fractured in a motorcycle accident, one on his left shoulder that had ailed him back to 2021. He also tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Clostebol and was handed an 80-game suspension at the start of last August. That carried into this season, with Tatis sitting out the Friars’ first 20 games. San Diego has opened with a middling 9-11 start, allowing ten more runs than they’ve scored.

Tatis was permitted to play in Spring Training. He got into 16 exhibition games, hitting .273/.340/.432. Shortly after the regular season opened, Tatis went on a rehab stint with El Paso. He was the best hitter in the Pacific Coast League for a week. Tatis blasted seven home runs, walked six times and struck out on just three occasions in eight games. He hit .515/.590/1.212 in 39 trips to the plate for the Chihuahuas before reporting to the Padres a few days ago.

Players on the restricted list don’t count against the 40-man roster. To clear a spot, San Diego transferred Suarez to the 60-day IL. That backdates to his Opening Day placement on the injured list but still officially rules him out until the final week in May.

Suarez opened the season on the IL with inflammation in his throwing elbow. He was shut down from throwing at the start of this month after feeling continued discomfort and is without a clear recovery timetable. It’s an inauspicious start to the five-year, $46MM contract he inked at the start of last offseason. The hard-throwing Suarez provided the Padres 47 2/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball during his initial MLB campaign last year, emerging as one of their highest-leverage relievers by the playoffs.

Max Scherzer Given 10-Game Suspension; Will Not Appeal

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7:53pm: In a surprising twist, Scherzer informed reporters this evening he’s elected not to appeal after all (video provided by SNY). The right-hander said he’d initially believed an appeal would be heard by a neutral arbitrator but later was informed it would go in front of an MLB official. (Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic specifies that special assistant to the commissioner John McHale would have heard the appeal.) As a result, Scherzer conceded he wouldn’t win and has elected not to pursue it.

He’ll begin serving his ban tonight and is ineligible to return until May 1. Because Scherzer was suspended for an on-field rules violation, the Mets are not permitted to replace him on the active roster. They’ll roll with 25 players for the remainder of the month.

6:56pm: Major League Baseball announced Thursday evening that Mets star Max Scherzer has been suspended for ten games for “violating the prohibitions on foreign substances.” He was also fined an undisclosed amount, which Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports at $10K (Twitter link).

Foreign substance ejections come with an automatic ten-game suspension, so this has seemed likely since Scherzer was thrown out of yesterday’s start against the Dodgers. Scherzer stated after yesterday’s game that he’d appeal any suspension. Heyman tweets this evening that he plans to do so. Scherzer has been adamant he was only using legally-permissible rosin, swearing on the life of his children in the process. Umpires Phil Cuzzi and Dan Bellino, however, explained after the game that Scherzer’s hand was stickier than any other they had inspected previously.

Bellino opined that Scherzer had used “something likely more than rosin” based on its stickiness. MLB’s announcement reflected a similar sentiment. “Based on the umpires’ training to detect rosin on a pitcher’s hands, they concluded that the level of stickiness during the fourth inning check was so extreme that it was inconsistent with the use of rosin and/or sweat alone,” the league wrote. MLB’s press release says umpires “appropriately ejected Mr. Scherzer from the game” at that point.

While the league apparently believes Scherzer applied an illicit substance other than rosin, its press release also points to another potential justification for the ejection/suspension. MLB points out that it sent a memo to clubs during Spring Training reminding that “when used excessively or otherwise misapplied (i.e., to gloves or other parts of the uniform), rosin may be determined by the umpires to be a prohibited foreign substance, the use of which may subject a player to ejection and discipline.” Whether because of the umpiring crew’s determination Scherzer had used a non-rosin sticky substance or the possibility the three-time Cy Young winner applied too much of the otherwise permissible rosin, the league imposed discipline.

It was reported back in June 2021 the league was planning to crack down on the use of “sticky stuff” that pitchers use to improve their grip on the baseball but also to increase spin rates. Two players were suspended not too long after that, with Héctor Santiago of the Mariners getting hit later that same month, followed by Caleb Smith of the Diamondbacks in August. No suspensions were handed out last year, but it was reported in February the league was planning to further crack down this year.

Scherzer declined comment when speaking with Mets’ reporters this evening. He said only that his camp is “working on it” in reference to fighting the ban (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). There’s sure to be more clarity on the appeals process over the next few days.

If Scherzer indeed has to sit out for a week and a half, it’ll deal another hit to a rotation already down Justin Verlander, José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco to injury. That has pushed David Peterson and Tylor Megill into the starting five alongside Kodai Senga and previously necessitated a spot start from José Butto.

Skipper Buck Showalter told reporters tonight that left-hander  Joey Lucchesi will be recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to start tomorrow’s game against the Giants (via Mike Puma of the New York Post). It’ll represent Lucceshi’s first MLB action in nearly two years. He lost all of last season to Tommy John surgery.

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