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Diamondbacks To Promote Brandon Pfaadt

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The Diamondbacks are going to promote pitching prospect Brandon Pfaadt to make his major league debut tomorrow, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The right-hander isn’t currently on the club’s 40-man roster, meaning they will need to open a spot for him between now and then.

Pfaadt, 24, was a fifth round pick of the club in the 2020 draft. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic that year, but Pfaadt emerged with a strong showing in 2021. He rose through three levels of the minors, going from Single-A to High-A and Double-A that year, tossing 131 2/3 innings total with a combined 3.21 ERA. He struck out 30.2% of batters faced while walking just 5.3%. After that strong showing, he was ranked the club’s #10 prospect by Baseball America going into 2022.

Last year, Pfaadt would continue to impress, throwing 167 innings between Double-A and Triple-A  with a 3.83 ERA, 31.6% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. Going into this season, he was ranked the club’s #5 prospect by BA but amazingly was #26 in the entire league, highlighting a strong and top-heavy system loaded with premier prospects. Their report highlights his fastball, which averages around 93-94mph and has natural cutting action. His slider is his putaway pitch but he also has a changeup and a curveball. He is listed as the #51 prospect in the league at MLB Pipeline, #16 at FanGraphs, #32 at ESPN and was ranked #38 by Keith Law of The Athletic.

The righty was sent to Triple-A to start this year, where he’s posted a 3.91 ERA through five starts, striking out 28.6% of opponents while walking just 5.7%. As he’s been doing that, the Diamondbacks have been playing well, 16-13 record, despite an inconsistent rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have been their typically excellent selves so far this year, but the rest of the group hasn’t been nearly as strong. Madison Bumgarner got released after posting a 10.26 ERA in his first four starts. Ryne Nelson has a 6.39 ERA after six outings while Tommy Henry has a 6.52 after a pair. Zach Davies is on the injured list with an oblique strain while Drey Jameson was optioned out after some struggles.

Amid all of that uncertainty, the club will give Pfaadt a shot and see how he fares against big league hitters. Since the season is over a month old already, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time, at least not the traditional way. The latest collective bargaining agreement has a couple of measures to discourage teams from trying to manipulate a player’s service time and delay their free agency. One of those measures is that a player can still get a full service year even if they didn’t spend the requisite 172 days in the majors. Any player with less than 60 days’ service time at the start of a season who is on two of the top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can still get a full year if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Both Adley Rutschman and Michael Harris II managed to get a full year of service this way last year.

Pfaadt is on all three lists and could follow that path, though it will be a bit of a challenge. He will have to chase down other rookies who have already spent a month accruing stats, such as James Outman or his teammate Corbin Carroll. But for the Diamondbacks, it’s an exciting time as Pfaadt joins Carroll, Gabriel Moreno and other exciting young players on the roster, with prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones set to join them in the upstart D’Backs in the years to come.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Phillies Reinstate Bryce Harper

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May 2: The Phillies have officially announced Harper’s activation, optioning outfielder Jake Cave in a corresponding move.

May 1: Bryce Harper has been cleared to return to the Phillies and is expected to be in the club’s lineup as the designated hitter tomorrow, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Harper was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in May of last year but played through the ailment, serving as the designated hitter since he was able to hit but not throw. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in November, after the club had charged all the way to the World Series. The club initially announced his expected return for around the All-Star break in July, but it became clear in recent weeks that he had a chance to beat that. The Phils never put him on the 60-day injured list, leaving the door open for him to return in the first couple months of the season.

It had recently been reported that Harper would be visiting Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the Los Angeles-based surgeon who performed his TJS procedure, while the club is in town to play the Dodgers. It seemed earlier today that Harper got the good news he was looking for, as he took to Instagram and posted some pictures of himself with the teasing message “Aye Pham. You ready?” It now seems to be confirmed that he has been given the green light to return to hitting, allowing him to take up the DH spot for the Phils.

Once he’s back on the lineup, he will have completed what seems to be the quickest return to action after going under the knife for Tommy John. Shohei Ohtani was previously one of the fastest to get back on the field, as he underwent the procedure in October of 2018 and was back on the field in May of the following year.

Harper will obviously provide a huge boost to the lineup, having been one of the best hitters in the league for over a decade now. Even while dealing with the UCL tear and missing time with a broken thumb last year, he still hit .286/.364/.514 for a wRC+ of 138, indicating he was 38% better than the league average hitter. If there’s one small downside to Harper’s return, it’s that it will make the club a bit less flexible in setting its lineups. So far this year, most of the DH time has gone to Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, who are both generally considered subpar defenders in the outfield corners. Assuming the Phils have the freedom to use Harper on an everyday basis, that will likely mean having Schwarber and Castellanos in the field more often.

But that’s a small price to pay for an elite bat like Harper. What remains to be seen is when he will be able to return to the field. The initial timeline was that he could potentially return to right field towards the end of the season. However, Harper has been beating every timeline that’s been put in front of him and has also been getting some work in at first base. That position generally involves less stress on the throwing elbow than playing in the outfield and could perhaps allow him to move off the designated hitter spot earlier.

Regardless of when Harper can again play defense, he’s a tremendous boost to the lineup after missing just over a month of the 2023 season. The Phils have managed to stay afloat without him, going 15-14 so far. They are a few games out in the playoff race right now but should get some extra momentum for the remainder of the schedule.

Mariners To Outright Diego Castillo, Promote Bryce Miller

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The Mariners are shuffling up their pitching staff. They’re set to select the contract of top pitching prospect Bryce Miller, as first reported by Joe Doyle of Future Star Series, and they’ve also passed right-hander Diego Castillo through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Tacoma, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link).

With that outright, Castillo is no longer on the 40-man roster. He has the three years of service time needed to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but he doesn’t yet have five years of service, so rejecting the assignment would mean forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $2.95MM salary. As such, he’s sure to accept an assignment to Tacoma and remain with the organization.

It’s been a swift decline for Castillo, who was one of the top relievers moved at the 2021 deadline, going from Tampa Bay to Seattle in exchange for minor league infielder Austin Shenton and righty JT Chargois. Castillo was quite effective in his first season and a half with the Mariners, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly below-average 9.4% walk rate. He held opponents to just a .196 average, yielded only 1.06 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.5% clip.

The 2023 season, however, has been a disaster for the 29-year-old Castillo. In 8 2/3 innings so far, he’s walked as many batters as he’s fanned (seven) and also plunked a hitter. He’s already served up homers to two of the 41 batters he’s faced after surrendering only five in 54 1/3 innings (222 batters faced) a year ago. The 94.2 mph average on his fastball, meanwhile, is down 1.6 mph from last year’s mark of 95.8. Overall, he’s sitting on a 6.23 ERA and has allowed 15 of 41 opponents (.366) to reach base.

Any other team could’ve claimed Castillo, but it’s generally rare for other clubs to claim struggling players of this nature when they have a guaranteed contract of some note. The Mariners could’ve waited to make this move but likely saw Castillo’s struggles as a way to open a 40-man roster spot to accommodate their top pitching prospect. If another club had claimed Castillo, the Mariners would’ve been spared the remaining $2.44MM of this year’s salary, but they’ll instead hope he can round back into form with the Rainiers.

Turning to Miller, he’ll make his big league debut when he takes the mound tomorrow against the A’s. He last pitched on April 25, so he’ll be plenty rested. The 24-year-old has had a rough start to his 2023 season in Double-A, pitching to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 frames, but he entered the year among the top 100 prospects at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com. He currently ranks 92nd, 89th and 85th, respectively on those three lists.

The handful of shaky outings to begin the year, it seems, won’t dissuade the Mariners from hoping he can follow Logan Gilbert and George Kirby to be the next member of the team’s vaunted farm system to step into the Major League rotation. Seattle has already lost Robbie Ray for the season and has seen Chris Flexen struggle in the fifth spot of the rotation, so it stands to reason that Miller could potentially seize a permanent job, if not tomorrow then certainly at some point this season.

Despite his rocky start to the 2023 season, Miller is seen as a potential mid-rotation starter, thanks in no small part to a heater that sits upper-90s and can bump 100 mph. He pairs that with a slider and changeup, and the former college reliever has improved his command as the Mariners have stretched him back out as a starter.

Miller split the bulk of the 2022 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 3.16 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate in 133 2/3 innings. He allowed just 0.67 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average rate. And, given that sizable workload in ’22, there’s little reason to think the Mariners will feel the need to monitor his innings total too aggressively this season.

If Miller were to stick in the big leagues, he’d be on pace to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player following the 2025 season and reach free agency at the conclusion of the 2029 season. Of course, future optional assignments could alter one or both of those timetables considerably.

Twins’ Tyler Mahle To Be Shut Down For Four Weeks

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Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI today to determine the nature of an elbow impingement, and the results aren’t promising.  Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Dan Hayes of The Athletic) that Mahle will be shut down for the next four weeks due to both a posterior impingement and a flexor pronator strain.

Assuming Mahle emerges from that shutdown period in good condition, it will still likely take a couple of weeks for him to rehab and rebuild his strength back up to regular levels, so the Twins might be without one of their rotation stalwarts until late June.  Kenta Maeda also went to the 15-day IL just two days ago, but while Maeda’s strained right triceps issue seems slightly less serious, it seems like Maeda could also miss a big portion of May.

The Twins have an off-day on Monday, so Mahle’s own IL placement will likely be held off until prior to the team’s game against the White Sox on Tuesday.  Bailey Ober was already called up from Triple-A to act as Maeda’s replacement in the rotation, so Minnesota will again have to dip into its starter depth.  The silver lining might be that the Twins are better equipped than most teams to withstand rotation injuries, since Louie Varland is also on hand at Triple-A and seems the likeliest candidate to be called up in Mahle’s place.  Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick might also be options, as both are on Minnesota’s 40-man roster.

The injury is a tough setback for Mahle, who looked good in posting a 3.16 ERA over his first five starts and 25 2/3 innings of the season.  The righty’s 27.5% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate were both above league average, and the latter figure is of particular note given how control has often been an issue for Mahle throughout his six previous MLB seasons.  A .266 BABIP and 80% strand rate have contributed to Mahle’s good numbers, but his 3.50 SIERA isn’t too far north of his actual 3.16 ERA.

In the bigger picture, Mahle is a free agent after the season, so any kind of lengthy injury layoff could certainly hamper his chances of maximizing his value on his next contract.  It doesn’t help that Mahle also missed a big chunk of the 2022 season due to shoulder problems, as he pitched only 28 1/3 innings after July 2 due to three separate IL trips.  Only time will tell if Mahle will be able to be able to return from this current injury in relatively short order and in good form, but an extended run of good health and quality pitching after his return could line Mahle up for a hefty multi-year deal this winter.

Rangers Place Jacob deGrom On 15-Day IL Due To Elbow Inflammation

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The Rangers announced that right-hander Jacob deGrom has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.  The move comes a day after deGrom was removed early from his start against the Yankees due to what was initially termed as forearm tightness.  In the corresponding move, Texas called up right-hander Yerry Rodriguez from Triple-A to take deGrom’s spot on the active roster.

Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters yesterday that removing deGrom was “just a precaution,” and GM Chris Young told reporters (including Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News) that an MRI revealed the inflammation.  “Given how important he is to us and our season, we’re going to play this very cautiously and see how he responds over the next several days of treatment, and then 7-10 days we’ll have a pretty good idea of what the next steps are,” Young said.

DeGrom also made an early exit from a start two weeks ago due to wrist soreness, this IL visit might be something more of an overall maintenance pause to let deGrom entirely heal up.  That said, it certainly isn’t good to see deGrom back on the IL, particularly with any sort of elbow/forearm issue.  The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery over a decade ago, and he missed the second half of the 2021 season recovering from forearm tightness.  Between that abbreviated 2021 season and then a stress reaction in his shoulder blade prior to the start of the 2022 season, deGrom missed almost exactly a full year of action bridged over the 2021-22 campaigns.

Sandwiched around that long injury absence, deGrom still posted a 1.90 ERA over 156 1/3 innings in 2021-22, continuing to show that he is one of baseball’s very best pitchers when healthy.  Even with health concerns clouding his last two seasons, deGrom still opted out of the $30.5MM remaining on his contract with the Mets in order to chase a larger free agent deal this past winter.  The bet paid off handsomely for the 34-year-old, who landed a five-year, $185MM contract from the Rangers.

That deal contains a conditional option for the 2028 season that is relevant given the nature of deGrom’s current IL stint.  The option becomes a club option if deGrom undergoes a TJ surgery or is on the IL for any elbow or shoulder-related injury for either 130 consecutive days in a given season, or for 186 consecutive days bridging multiple season.  (The price of that club option ranges from $20MM to as much as $37MM if deGrom hits certain innings thresholds and finishes in Cy Young Award voting over the life of the contract.)  If deGrom avoids these injury benchmarks, passes a physical after the 2027 season, tossed at least 160 innings that season, and has a top-five finish in Cy Young voting in 2027, the option becomes a $37MM player option.

As noted, there isn’t yet any indication that deGrom’s injury is serious, or anything that might even sideline him beyond the 15-day minimum.  Still, it is a little ominous that an elbow problem that sent deGrom to the IL within his first month in a Rangers uniform, and the club can only hope that this injury is just a bump in the road.

Over his first six games with Texas, deGrom has continued to perform like an ace, posting a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings with elite Statcast metrics almost across the board.  The Rangers are a perfect 6-0 in deGrom’s starts, which is a big reason why Texas is sitting in first place in the AL West after a 15-11 start.

Texas has off-days on both Monday and Thursday, giving the team some flexibility in how it will reset the rotation with deGrom out.  Young indicated that Dane Dunning is the likeliest candidate to step into the starting five, and Rodriguez’s promotion is perhaps a hint that the Rangers will indeed move Dunning back into the rotation.  Dunning was a regular starter for the Rangers in 2021-22 before the team’s offseason pitching acquisitions pushed him into a relief role.  Despite a very low 13.9% strikeout rate, Dunning has fared well in the bullpen, posting a 1.77 ERA and 50.8% grounder rate over 20 1/3 relief innings.

Orioles Promote Joey Ortiz

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The Orioles announced Thursday morning that they’ve recalled top infield prospect Joey Ortiz from Triple-A Norfolk and optioned infielder/outfielder Terrin Vavra to Triple-A in his place. Ortiz — who currently ranks as the game’s No. 66 prospect at FanGraphs, No. 88 at Baseball America and No. 91 at MLB.com — will be making his Major League debut the first time he takes the field.

Ortiz, 24, was Baltimore’s fourth-round selection in the 2019 draft and was selected to the 40-man roster back in November, thus protecting him from selection in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. He’s gotten out to a torrid start in Triple-A this season, slashing .359/.389/.500 with five doubles, a pair of triples, a 6.9% walk rate and a 16.7% strikeout rate that’s considerably lower than average. It’s a strong early followup to a 2022 season in which Ortiz hit .284/.349/.477 with 19 home runs, 35 doubles, six triples and eight steals in a combined 600 plate appearances between Double-A (485) and Triple-A (115).

While he’s spent the vast majority of his professional career to date at shortstop, Ortiz has just shy of 300 innings at second base and another 51 frames of third base under his belt since being drafted. He’s not going to supplant Jorge Mateo at shortstop, given Mateo’s own brilliant start to the season, but Ortiz could see some time at the other two infield spots in the days ahead, with second base seeming particularly plausible.

As Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun points out (Twitter link), the O’s are slated to face left-handed starters in each of their next three games. The left-handed-hitting Vavra likely wouldn’t have gotten a start in any of those three contests, but Ortiz gives manager Brandon Hyde a righty bat off the bench or, speculatively speaking, at second base to start over the lefty-swinging Adam Frazier (who has struggled in general early this season).

It’s not clear just yet whether Ortiz will only be getting a brief call to the Majors or whether he might be earnestly auditioning for a larger role with the club right now. Frazier’s hitting just .208/.288/.333 through his first 80 plate appearances, though it’s unlikely that the Orioles would move on so soon after signing him to a one-year, $8MM deal over the winter. However, it’s at least feasible that Ortiz could spell Frazier against lefties while also seeing a start per week at shortstop, third base and designated hitter, perhaps accruing something close to regular playing time in the process. Injuries, of course, could always create additional opportunity.

Whether it’s just a brief cup of coffee or a more legitimate big league audition, Ortiz’s early promotion will give Baltimore fans a look at yet another promising young position player who could help form the core of the club for the next several years. He’ll join Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle and Grayson Rodriguez as recent top-100 prospects to take the big league stage at Camden Yards over the past couple seasons, with several more waiting in the wings behind them.

Robbie Ray To Miss Remainder Of Season Due To Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Mariners left-hander Robbie Ray will undergo flexor tendon repair surgery, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Ray will not be able to return this season. The lefty had already been on the 15-day injured list due to a flexor strain but Divish adds that further testing revealed damage in a different area of the tendon.

The news is obviously terrible for both Ray and the Mariners, as he was a key part of the club’s plans for this year. After an up-and-down career with the Tigers and Diamondbacks, Ray stabilized himself in tremendous fashion with the Blue Jays in 2021. He had always had tremendous strikeout ability but struggled with command, walking 11% of batters he faced in his career by the end of the 2020 campaign. But the 2021 season saw him whittle that down to 6.7% while still getting punchouts at an incredible 32.1% clip. He finished the season with a 2.84 ERA and was awarded the American League Cy Young.

That breakout was perfectly timed, as he went into free agency immediately after, signing a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners with an opt-out after the third season. Last year, he naturally regressed from his incredible heights of the year before, but still had a solid year with Seattle. He made 32 starts and posted a 3.71 ERA, striking out 27.4% of opponents while walking 8%. That helped the club break their postseason drought, as they qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Unfortunately, 2023 season will now go down as a total loss, effectively. Ray made one start of just 3 1/3 innings before landing on the injured list and that will now be his entire tally for the year.

The Mariners have had six viable starters since their deadline acquisition of Luis Castillo last year, which bumped Chris Flexen into the bullpen. With Castillo, Ray, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Marco Gonzales set to be in the front five spots, it had been speculated by many that perhaps the club would look to trade Flexen in order to improve another area of the roster. In the end, they kept all six hurlers, a decision which now seems wise in the wake of Ray’s injury. Flexen has struggled so far this year, currently sporting an 8.86 ERA, but was plenty effective for the M’s in the two prior seasons.

This won’t impact the Mariners in the short term as they were already operating without Ray, but this will have a huge impact on their long-term plans now that a return of Ray later in the year is off the table. They have depth options on the 40-man such as Darren McCaughan, José Rodríguez and Easton McGee, but Divish relays word from manager Scott Servais that the club is re-evaluating their pitching depth in the wake of this news. The last time they needed a spot start, veteran journeyman Tommy Milone was given the nod.

Finding external pitching options at this time of the year can be tough as most teams are dealing with injuries of their own and few have decided to press the sell button so early. The free agents that are unsigned are usually still available because they haven’t been effective in a while. That’s certainly the case for Madison Bumgarner, who was just released by the Diamondbacks today, joining pitchers like Dallas Keuchel and Chris Archer on the open market.

The Mariners are currently 11-12 and in fourth place in the American League West, though they are by no means buried with just 2.5 games separating them and the division-leading Rangers. There’s still plenty of time for them to gain ground, but they will now have to do so without any contributions from their player making the highest salary this year.

Guardians Promote Tanner Bibee, Designate Konnor Pilkington For Assignment

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The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of top pitching prospect Tanner Bibee from Triple-A Columbus. He’ll make his Major League debut and start today’s game. In a corresponding roster move, left-hander Konnor Pilkington has been designated for assignment.

Bibee, 24, was Cleveland’s fifth-round pick in 2021 but has quickly outshined that relatively humble draft status. The right-hander breezed through High-A and Double-A in 2022, showing pristine command and a strong ability to miss bats as he pitched to a combined 2.17 ERA in 132 2/3 innings. He’s opened the 2023 campaign with 15 1/3 innings of 1.76 ERA ball and a 19-to-8 K/BB ratio. While Bibee’s command hasn’t been as sharp in this year’s small sample, he’s walked just 6.1% of his opponents since being drafted and boasts a career 32.2% strikeout rate in the minors.

Bibee’s rapid ascension through the Cleveland system is largely attributable to a major jump in fastball velocity. After sitting in the high 80s and low 90s in college at Cal State Fullerton, his heater now resides in the mid-90s. He ranks comfortably within the sport’s top 100 prospects at MLB.com (No. 59), FanGraphs (No. 69) and Baseball America (No. 80). FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen details many of the changes Bibee has made to his mechanics, pitch selection and his physique since being drafted — all without sacrificing the command that garnered him attention in the draft.

Cleveland’s rotation has struggled thus far, with Shane Bieber the only member of the Opening Day quintet who’s currently healthy and pitching well. Triston McKenzie is out until at least late next month due to a teres major strain, and Aaron Civale is on the injured list as well thanks to an oblique strain. Cal Quantrill has given up at least three runs in four of his five starts, including a five-run clunker in 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies earlier this week. Zach Plesac has been tagged for a 6.50 ERA through his first four starts. Neither Quantrill nor Plesac have ever missed many bats, but this year’s strikeout rates of 12.8% and 14.9%, respectively, are both career-lows for the pair of righties.

In light of those injuries and shaky performances, Cleveland has begun to tap into its farm system early. Left-hander Logan Allen — not to be confused with the former Cleveland pitcher of the same name — made his big league debut against the Marlins earlier this week and fired six innings of one-run ball. Righty Peyton Battenfield has held his own through three starts in spite of a rocky 10.8% walk rate. Bibee will join the group for now, and with a strong debut, it’s possible he could stake a claim to a rotation spot moving forward.

Given the timing of his call to the big leagues, Bibee won’t have enough days on the schedule to reach a full year of service time in 2023, even if he’s in the big leagues for good. He could still snag that full year of service with a strong showing in the American League’s Rookie of the Year voting, but barring that scenario, he’ll remain under club control through the 2029 season. He will, however, project as an eventual Super Two player if he sticks in the big leagues, which would position him for arbitration eligibility four times rather than three, beginning after the 2025 season.

As for Pilkington, he’s had a tough start to the season in Triple-A. The 25-year-old southpaw has made four starts and been tagged for 13 runs on 19 hits and 11 walks with 14 strikeouts in 14 innings. He had a rough showing in Triple-A last year as well (5.88 ERA in 56 2/3 innings), but Pilkington was also serviceable in 58 Major League frames in 2022.

In last year’s MLB debut, Pilkington worked to a 3.88 ERA over those 58 innings, making 11 starts and another four relief appearances. His pedestrian 19.4% strikeout rate and bloated 12.4% walk rate made that ERA appear rather suspect, but the bottom-line results were solid.

The Guardians will have a week to trade Pilkington or else attempt to pass him through outright waivers. Given that he’s a 25-year-old lefty who’s stretched out to start and has a minor league option remaining beyond this year, there’s a decent chance another club in need of some pitching depth would have interest, if not via a minor trade then at least via waiver claim. If he makes it through waivers unclaimed, he’ll remain in the Cleveland organization, as he doesn’t have the service time or prior outright required to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A.

Pirates Extend Bryan Reynolds

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The Pirates have put an end to the Bryan Reynolds trade/extension saga, announcing on Wednesday that they’ve signed the star outfielder through the 2030 season. The seven-year extension reportedly guarantees Reynolds $100MM in new money on top of the $6.75MM he was already earning in 2023, and it also contains a club option for the 2031 campaign. Reynolds, a CAA client, does not have an opt-out provision but does have a limited six-team no-trade clause. The extension is the largest contract in Pirates franchise history.

Reynolds’ $6.75MM salary for the current season will reportedly remain unchanged, but he’ll now receive a $2MM signing bonus as well. Reynolds will then earn salaries of $10MM in 2024, $12MM in 2025, $14MM in 2026 and $15MM per year from 2027-30. The option is valued at $20MM and contains a $2MM buyout. In all, Reynolds is guaranteed seven years and $100MM on top of the $6.75MM he’d already been earning in 2023. The contract buys out his final two seasons of arbitration and locks in five free-agent seasons with an option for a sixth.

One of two players the Pirates acquired in the trade sending the since re-signed Andrew McCutchen to the Giants, Reynolds hit the ground running with the Bucs in his MLB debut back in 2017, batting .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs in 546 plate appearances. With the exception of a dreadful showing in a 55-game sample during the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has continued to hit at a well above-average level. He’s a career .282/.359/.484 hitter in just over 2100 plate appearances, including a .294/.319/.553 start in 2023. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 26% better than a league-average hitter in his career to date.

Moving forward, it seems the Bucs will trot Reynolds out as their primary left fielder, rather than his customary center field. That’s been the case for the majority of the 2023 season, when Reynolds has logged just 35 innings in center compared to 144 innings in left field. Defensive metrics have increasingly soured on Reynolds’ center field work in recent years, and the Pirates have been playing Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae there more frequently in 2023. The early returns on Reynolds’ glovework have been sharp; he’s posted positive ratings in Defensive Runs Saved (3), Ultimate Zone Rating (0.5) and Outs Above Average (1) during his limited work.

The extension for Reynolds marks the culmination of multiple years of trade rumors and a months-long sequence of extension drama that at one point led the outfielder to request a trade. That trade request was not a steadfast declaration that he wanted out of Pittsburgh — clearly — but rather was borne of the fact that Reynolds was seeking a long-term deal that Pirates ownership then appeared simply unwilling to put forth. Mackey reported in February that the Pirates had made a six-year, $76MM offer to Reynolds prior to that trade request; his camp then sought $50-60MM more.

An agreement on these same financial terms was reportedly reached back in spring training, but there were other hold-ups in the deal. At that point, Reynolds had been pushing for an opt-out clause to be included in the contract. It’s a bit surprising that he’d drop that request without the Pirates coming up on their offer, though the inclusion of some limited no-trade protection perhaps provided some extra incentive for Reynolds. Furthermore, the team’s stunning 16-7 start to the season likely only serves to further Reynolds’ belief that the club is headed in the right direction.

All that said, it’s hard not to like this deal for the Pirates. Reynolds’ prior two-year, $13.5MM deal that bought out his first two arbitration seasons effectively signaled that the Bucs viewed his 2022 and 2023 seasons somewhere in the vicinity of $4.5MM and $9MM, respectively. As a Super Two player, he’d have gone through arbitration twice more, earning a pair of raises in the process. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that Reynolds could’ve topped $13MM in 2024 and $17MM in 2025. His final two arb seasons alone were worth close to $30MM (likely a bit more), meaning the five free-agent years on this contract are being valued at roughly $14MM apiece.

Andrew Benintendi just inked a five-year, $75MM deal in free agency, and while he was two years younger than Reynolds would be by the time he’d have reached the market, Reynolds is a decidedly better hitter. The seven years and $100MM in new money secured by Reynolds on this deal is an exact match for the guaranteed portion of Byron Buxton’s deal with the Twins, but Reynolds doesn’t come with any of the durability concerns that have plagued Buxton throughout his career — nor does his contract contain the roughly $8MM of annual incentives in that Buxton deal. Even Corbin Carroll, who’s repped by the same agency as Reynolds and entered the season with just 32 MLB games under his belt, landed an eight-year, $111MM extension from the D-backs during spring training.

Every player’s motivation is quite different, of course, and Reynolds has made clear in the past that his eventual hope was to land a long-term deal that allowed him to remain in Pittsburgh for the long term. He’s done just that, securing a nine-figure guarantee in the process. The extension doesn’t necessarily stack up with what players of his caliber might expect to earn at this juncture of their careers, but Reynolds was clearly willing to compromise in order to remain with the teammates, coaching staff and city he’s come to view as home.

Market context notwithstanding, Reynolds now firmly joins Ke’Bryan Hayes as a foundational piece for the Pirates. The two are the only players signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the current season, and both are under team control through at least 2030. Hayes’ $70MM extension runs through the 2029 season, and Pittsburgh holds a team option for that 2030 season — the final guaranteed year of Reynolds’ new deal.

Reynolds and Hayes will account for $17MM in guaranteed salary next year and for $23MM as far out as the 2029 season. Even for a perennial payroll cellar-dweller like the Pirates, that should leave them with ample room to supplement the roster — particularly if they’re able to convince some of their up-and-coming young talent to agree to club-friendly deals in the same vein as the current pair of extensions they’ve brokered. Talents such as Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras are still quite early in their respective MLB careers, and while both Mitch Keller (three-plus years of MLB service) and David Bednar (two-plus) are further along, both are potential candidates as well. Prospects like Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz could all enter the conversation as they get their feet wet in the Majors as well.

For now, Pirates fans have clear cause to celebrate. The team has sprinted out to a surprising first-place start, and after years of watching the team’s best players inevitably head elsewhere via trade, they can now feel secure that Reynolds will be in black and gold for the foreseeable future.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Robert Murray of FanSided reported the annual breakdown. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Reynolds can block trades to six teams.

Dodgers To Promote Michael Busch

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The Dodgers are going to promote prospect Michael Busch, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. Busch will take the roster spot of Max Muncy, who is going on the paternity list. Busch is already on the 40-man roster and won’t require a corresponding move in that regard. The Dodgers are off tonight but start a series in Pittsburgh tomorrow, when the move should be made official.

Busch, 25, was a first round pick of the Dodgers, getting selected 31st overall in 2019. He has since been posting excellent numbers in the minors, showing both tremendous power and patience in the box. He spent all of 2021 in Double-A, walking in 14.1% of his plate appearances and hitting 20 home runs in 107 games. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 32 home runs in 142 games between those two levels, walking in 11.5% of his trips to the plate. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line translated to a 118 wRC+. Busch was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .337/.461/.506 through 21 Triple-A games.

If there’s a knock on Busch, it’s on the defensive side of things. A first baseman in college, he’s spent a bit of time there recently but has seen the bulk of his action as a professional at second base. He’s also had short stints at third base and left field. Playing all of those different positions is less a reflection of versatility and more a suggestion that he’s not really a strong defender and is a work in progress as the Dodgers try to find a home for him in the field. Some evaluators have compared him to the player he’s replacing today, Muncy, as both players combine power and plate discipline with some degree of defensive versatility.

The Dodgers had a relatively modest offseason by their standards, letting notable players depart while signing various veterans to one-year deals. That’s allowed them to give some runway to various younger players, such as Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, though the latter two are now on the injured list. Busch will be latest youngster to get a crack at the big leagues.

Coming into this year, Busch was ranked around the middle of many top 100 prospect lists, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The first two of those are potentially significant, given the rules under the new collective bargaining agreement. It’s too late in the season for Busch to get to a full year of service time the traditional way, but his status as a top prospect provides him with an alternate path. Under the new CBA, players with less than 60 days of service time that are on two of the preseason top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN can earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting.

That may end up being a fairly moot point in this case, as it seems possible that Busch will only get a brief stay in the bigs while Muncy is on the paternity list. But if he somehow manages to stick around and perform well enough to get some decent Rookie of the Year votes, he could get himself to that full year. He didn’t crack the top 100 at ESPN but the BA and MLB Pipeline ranks are enough to get that on the table.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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