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Pirates Acquire Ji-Man Choi From Rays

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The Pirates have landed their new first baseman, announcing agreement with the Rays on a deal that brings in Ji-Man Choi. Minor league pitcher Jack Hartman goes to Tampa Bay in a one-for-one swap.

The move brings to an end Choi’s four-plus year tenure in Tampa Bay. The Rays first acquired the first baseman from the Brewers in June 2018, sending utilityman Brad Miller to Milwaukee in a swap of big leaguers. Choi hit the ground running, putting up a .269/.370/.506 line in 49 games down the stretch. He staked a claim to a regular job in the Rays first base/designated hitter rotation, one he’s held the past few years.

Choi has been an above-average overall hitter in each of the past three seasons. He strikes out a fair amount and has hit between .229 and .233 the whole time, but he compensates for the mediocre batting averages by drawing plenty of free passes. Choi has walked in around 14% of his plate appearances in each of the last three years, pushing his on-base percentage into the .330 to .350 range. He typically gets into the double-digits in home runs and approaches 20 doubles annually.

Going back to the start of 2020, Choi owns a .231/.342/.399 line in 869 cumulative plate appearances. That offensive production checks in 14 points better than league average, by measure of wRC+. A left-handed hitter, Choi has only mustered a .203/.290/.301 line in his career against southpaws. He’s a .247/.355/.454 hitter against right-handed pitching, making him a solid platoon option for first base and designated hitter. It’s not too dissimilar from the role Daniel Vogelbach played for the Bucs in 2022 before they dealt him to the Mets.

Choi has between five and six years of MLB service, so he’s going through the arbitration process for the final time. MLTBR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $4.5MM salary, a modest but not completely insignificant amount. He was part of a large arbitration class in Tampa Bay and looked like a possible non-tender candidate. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday the Rays were marketing Choi at this week’s GM meetings. Morosi added pitchers Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos and Shawn Armstrong as other players the Tampa Bay front office was discussing with other teams.

The Pirates entered the offseason seeking first base help, and they’ll take on Choi’s final season of club control to plug that gap. Factoring in his arbitration projection brings the Bucs’ 2023 payroll slate to an estimated $50MM, per Roster Resource. Pittsburgh opened this past season with a payroll in the $56MM range. The Pirates are sure to search for catching help and are likely to bolster their starting rotation within the next few months, even as they field offers on big leaguers like Kevin Newman as part of the ongoing rebuild. Choi himself could be a midseason trade candidate if he’s hitting up to his usual standards and the Pirates fall back out of contention next summer.

Hartman, meanwhile, was a fourth-round pick in 2020. Pittsburgh nabbed him out of Appalachian State University as a $60K senior signee. The 24-year-old righty spent this year in Low-A, working as a reliever. He put up a 6.27 ERA through 18 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 20.4% of opponents against a massive 17.2% walk rate. The Rays will hope a change of scenery can push him up the minor league ladder; he’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if not added to the 40-man roster.

Naver Sports in Korea was first to report Choi had been traded to the Pirates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the Rays would receive a minor league player in return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Mets Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Taijuan Walker

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The Mets have opted against issuing a $19.65MM qualifying offer to right-hander Taijuan Walker, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Walker, who made the easy decision to decline a $7.5MM player option earlier this week, will now reach free agency with no restrictions and will not be subject to draft-pick compensation. Unsurprisingly, Heyman adds that the Mets plan to make a QO to all three of Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt.

Walker, who turned 30 in August, was a borderline candidate and might well have rejected his offer upon receiving one, though the Mets won’t find out and will instead accept the possibility of losing him for no compensation. As a luxury tax payor, they’ll “only” receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for any free agent who rejects a qualifying offer, and apparently the notion of potentially tying up $19.65MM in salary to Walker right out of the offseason gate wasn’t worth that fairly modest bit of compensation for GM Billy Eppler and his staff.

It’s great news for Walker, who’ll now head into free agency search of a multi-year deal that could span three or perhaps even four years in length. The former top prospect has shaken off many of the injury concerns that stemmed from Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery earlier in his career, making 69 of roughly 76 possible starts across the past three seasons. That includes 29 starts and more than 155 innings in each of the past two campaigns.

Since 2020, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged just about 5 1/3 innings per outing in that time, though that would seem to be more in an effort to monitor his workload than due to strong concerns about turning a lineup over for the third time. Since 2020, Walker has yielded a .232/.303/.391 batting line when facing opponents for the third time on a given day. While his numbers the first and second time through the order are better, it’s not the type of cringeworthy third-time split you’ll see with so many starting pitchers.

Walker’s fastball sat 93.8 mph in 2022, so he doesn’t have premium velocity. He doesn’t miss bats or generate grounders at an especially high level but also limits walks at a solid clip. He may not stand out in any one way, but he increasingly looks like a durable mid-rotation arm who could deepen nearly any starting staff in the Majors.

Mets To Pick Up Options On Carlos Carrasco, John Curtiss

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The Mets are going to pick up Carlos Carrasco’s option for 2023, per Tim Healey of Newsday. He’ll earn a $14MM salary instead of a $3MM buyout. They will also pick up their $775K option on reliever John Curtiss instead of the $70K buyout, per Mike Puma of The New York Post.

Carrasco, 36 in March, has been up-and-down over the past few years, with injuries usually contributing to the down parts. Acquired by the Mets prior to 2021, he only tossed 52 2/3 innings last year with a 6.04 ERA. 2020 was much better, as he was healthy enough to make 29 starts and toss 152 frames. In that time, he registered a 3.97 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. With the $14MM option price and $3MM buyout, it was a net $11MM decision for the club. There’s certainly risk in that kind of commitment given Carrasco’s injury history, but it’s also possible that he’s well worth that salary.

What also likely played a role in the Mets’ decision was their broad rotation picture. Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract while Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt declined options in favor of free agency. That’s left three big holes in the club’s starting staff for next year. Even if Carrasco’s age and injury history caused them to consider turning down his option at any point, they might have been dissuaded from doing so by the circumstances. Replacing three starters is challenging enough without creating another vacancy.

With Carrasco now retained, he will slot in behind Max Scherzer as two of the club’s starters next year. There are some in-house options for filling the remaining three slots, such as Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto. However, the Mets have been quite aggressive in upgrading their roster in recent years and will likely bring in reinforcements, either fresh faces or convincing their departing free agents to return.

As for Curtiss, 30 in April, he seemed to be having a breakout in recent years. In 2020, he tossed 25 innings for the Rays with a 1.80 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate. He got traded to the Marlins prior to 2021 and then to the Brewers a few months later. He posted a 3.45 ERA over 44 1/3 innings that year but then required Tommy John surgery in September.

After he was non-tendered by the Brewers, the Mets signed him to a one-year deal, knowing that he would miss the entire 2022 campaign, but with the option for 2023. The $775K salary is barely above the league minimum, which will be $720K next year. There’s little risk in the Mets picking it up and seeing if Curtiss can bounceback to his old form once healthy. They also face a huge amount of turnover in the bullpen, as Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter are all now free agents. Edwin Díaz was set to join that group before he and the Mets agreed to a new contract. Given that the Mets will need to essentially rebuild their entire bullpen, it makes sense to retain any warm they can find.

With these two salaries now on the books, the Mets’ payroll for 2023 is up to $238MM, according to Roster Resource. Their CBT number is slightly ahead at $249MM, since that figure is calculated by looking at the annual average value of contracts over their entire length, not just the 2023 salaries. This year’s top luxury tax bracket will begin at $293MM, with owner Steve Cohen hinting to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post that he could be willing to spend in that range. If that’s the case, the club still has some funds available to continue upgrading the pitching staff and the positional player mix.

Reds Acquire Nick Solak From Rangers

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The Reds have acquired outfielder Nick Solak from the Rangers in exchange for cash considerations, according to an announcement from Texas.

Solak, 28, in January, was a second round pick of the Yankees in 2016 but was traded to the Rays as part of the 2018 three-team deal that saw the Yanks get Brandon Drury and the Diamondbacks get Steven Souza Jr. In July of 2019, the Rays flipped him to Texas for Pete Fairbanks.

After that second trade, Solak made his MLB debut with the Rangers, getting into 33 games down the stretch in 2019. It could hardly have gone much better, as Solak hit .293/.393/.491 in that stretch for a wRC+ of 126. He played second and third base in that time, giving the Rangers an exciting option for the infield.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to maintain those results since then. Over 2020 and 2021, he hit .250/.318/.357 for a wRC+ of just 88. He also struggled defensively and got pushed into a corner outfield role, putting more pressure on him to provide value offensively. He was optioned on and off the team throughout 2022, only getting into 35 big league games and not hitting too much when in the lineup. He finished the season on the IL due to a foot fracture and needed to be reinstated since the IL goes away today and doesn’t come back until Spring Training. Instead of adding him back to the roster, the club has swung a deal and sent him to Cincinnati.

For the Reds, there’s little harm in taking a shot on a bounceback. They’ve been stripping the roster down for the past couple of years and aren’t likely to be competitive here in 2023. Although Solak has struggled at the big league level in the past few years, he’s still performed well in Triple-A. In 2022, that led to a batting line of .278/.371/.489 and a wRC+ of 114.

The Reds have some other outfield options, such as Nick Senzel, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley and Aristides Aquino, though none of them are really set in stone. Solak still has one option year remaining, which means the Reds don’t even need to commit an active roster spot for him. If he can get his bat back on track, he still has years of arbitration control remaining.

Justin Verlander Triggers Opt Out

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The MLBPA issued a press release today, announcing four new entrants to free agency. Three of them were already reported upon, as Jordan Lyles, Tommy Pham and Mychal Givens all had options turned down by their respective clubs recently. The fourth was Justin Verlander, indicating he has opted out of his deal with the Astros.

Verlander, who turns 40 in April, will now be one of the most interesting free agents in recent memory. He has a track record of success that goes back almost two decades now, with his MLB debut coming back in 2005. Tommy John surgery ended his 2020 after just a single outing and then prevented him from pitching at all in 2021. Despite two effectively lost seasons, the Astros still issued him a qualifying offer a year ago, but then they quickly agreed to a new contract. It was a two-year, $50MM deal, split into $25MM per season, that allowed Verlander to opt out after 2022 as long as he pitched 130 innings on the year.

Despite Verlander’s age and long layoff, he showed little sign of slowing down. He largely stayed healthy, making one trip to the injured list due to a calf injury which only cost him about two weeks. He was able to make 28 starts, logging 175 innings and posting an incredible 1.75 ERA, easily his career best. He probably wasn’t quite as dominant as it might seem from that ERA, since his 27.8% strikeout rate was a few ticks below where it had been prior to the TJS.  But he still kept his walks down to 4.4% and only allowed 12 home runs on the year, a personal low over a full season. He’s the favorite for the AL Cy Young as awards season approaches and will now be among the most sought after free agent pitchers, alongside Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.

Based on his excellent season, opting out seemed to be a fairly straightforward choice for Verlander. If he got a $50MM guarantee after two straight lost years, why settle for $25MM on the heels of an excellent year? Given that he’s now 40, he won’t be able to secure a long-term deal, but he’s said in the past that he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. Just about any team in the league would love to have Verlander on their team for one year, with many surely willing to go to two years.

Perhaps the closest thing to a recent comparison is the deal between Max Scherzer and the Mets. It’s not a perfect comp, since Scherzer was 37 at the time, a few years younger than the soon-to-be-40 Verlander. But like Verlander, he was managing to pitch at an ace-like level into an age when pitchers usually find themselves fighting the passing of time and all of its sickening crimes. He and the Mets agreed to a short-term deal with a high average annual value, coming in at three years and $130MM. That works out to an AAV of $43.333, with Scherzer also securing an opt out after 2023. Verlander’s situation isn’t perfectly analogous but he will likely be fielding offers that are somewhat similar.

Of course, not all teams will be willing to pay that kind of money, but short-term, high-AAV deals can sometimes bring unlikely suitors to the table. One year ago, Carlos Correa was looking to top $300MM on a contract around ten years in length. When it didn’t materialize, he pivoted towards a shorter deal with a higher annual salary. The Twins, who likely were never going to consider the lengthy pact Correa sought, suddenly jumped into the fray and got Correa to put pen to paper, though they also had to give him multiple opt-out opportunities. Last year, the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays reportedly offered Verlander strong deals before he agreed to return to Houston. They and many other teams will surely consider the same this winter.

The Astros will undoubtedly look to re-sign Verlander yet again, on the heels of their second World Series title. However, they are one of the few teams that arguably don’t strictly need him, though any team would of course be improved by his presence. Even without Verlander, the rotation is still in healthy shape, as Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown are all still present. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Verlander and the team re-up on a new deal and the club then using their strong rotation to upgrade elsewhere. It was recently reported that they had a deal lined up at the deadline to send Urquidy to the Cubs for Willson Contreras. Although owner Jim Crane reportedly nixed that deal, it shows that the club is at least aware that it has lots of starting pitching and is willing to consider trading from it.

Rangers, Braves Swap Jake Odorizzi, Kolby Allard

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The Rangers kicked off their search for rotation help Thursday evening, announcing the acquisition of right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. Atlanta receives lefty Kolby Allard in a one-for-one swap that also sees the Braves pay down a notable portion of Odorizzi’s salary. Atlanta will reportedly cover $10MM of his $12.5MM figure, which was locked in when the veteran starter exercised a player option for next year.

Going into 2021, Odorizzi signed a two-year, $23.5MM guarantee with the Astros with a convoluted structure. He received a $6MM signing bonus and $6MM salary in 2021, followed by a $5MM salary in 2022. That was to be followed by a $6.5MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout. However, there were also performance escalators that could increase the value of both the option and the buyout. Over the initial two years of the deal, if Odorizzi got into 20, 25 and 30 games, he would add $2MM to the salary and $1MM to the buyout at each of those milestones. He easily hit all three, getting into 46 games, maxing out the option value at $12.5MM.

Odorizzi posted a 4.21 ERA with Houston in 2021 and then had a 3.75 mark at the deadline when he was traded to Atlanta for Will Smith. Unfortunately, the uniform switch didn’t help him, as he posted a 5.24 mark after the deal. He also had a 6.59 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, meaning he hasn’t seen strong results over the past three years. Though he had a 27.1% strikeout rate in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% since then, a few ticks below league average.

Atlanta was clearly not terribly excited about the idea of paying him $12.5MM, based both on their tight payroll situation and Odorizzi’s results. He likely isn’t one of their five best starters anyway, as they have Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider for the first four spots, with Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Jared Shuster candidates for the fifth. They’ll pick up only $2.5MM in salary relief, but the deal clears a path for some of their younger arms to compete for a back-of-the-rotation job.

The Rangers are in need of rotation upgrades after getting poor results in that department in 2022. Texas starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA this year, placing them 25th in the majors. They got some decent work from Jon Gray and a career year from veteran Martín Pérez, though Pérez has now reached free agency and deprived the already-weak rotation of its strongest performer. There’s reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, though nothing has been finalized yet and the club is now likely to extend him a $19.65MM qualifying offer.

With Pérez still in the wind, that leaves Texas with Gray and a host of question marks behind him. Dane Dunning was decent enough, posting a 4.46 ERA this year over 29 starts. However, his season was finished by hip surgery and it’s unclear what condition he’ll be in next year. Glenn Otto made 27 starts and posted an ERA of 4.64. The club also gave a handful of starts to Taylor Hearn, Cole Ragans and Spencer Howard, though they all posted an ERA of 4.95 or higher. Given all that uncertainty, it would be logical for them to consider any and all avenues to upgrade the staff, with general manager Chris Young saying basically that at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas this week, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. That will apparently include giving Odorizzi a shot to produce some better results.

In addition to clearing a bit of salary off the books, Atlanta will receive another arm in Allard. The 25-year-old was actually drafted by Atlanta in the first round back in 2015 but went to the Rangers in 2019 in exchange for Chris Martin. He’s pitched in each of the past five MLB seasons but has a career 6.07 ERA. He has decent control with a 7.8% walk rate in his career, though his 18.6% strikeout rate and 37.8% ground ball rate are both subpar. He had been part of the Ranger rotation from 2019-21 but got bumped to bullpen work in 2022. The move didn’t help him, as he put up a 7.29 ERA over 21 innings out of the ’pen.

In the end, it seems both teams are giving up on pitchers that weren’t in their plans going forward. Texas is desperate for rotation stability and will see if Odorizzi can provide it, with Atlanta helping them pay the bill. It’s likely to be one of several moves to address the starting staff as they look to emerge from their years-long rebuild. For Atlanta, they are sending away some cash but will at least save a couple of bucks as they look to revamp and try to win a sixth straight NL East title.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report the Braves were paying $10MM of Odorizzi’s salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Offered Martin Perez Two-Year Contract, Expected To Extend Qualifying Offer

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The Rangers have offered left-hander Martín Pérez a two-year contract with an option for the 2025 campaign, reports Jeff Wilson. While Wilson characterizes the sides as “not too far apart,” he notes Texas is expected to tag Pérez with a $19.65MM qualifying offer tomorrow with no multi-year deal in place.

That meshes with a report from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who called a QO for Pérez “likely” yesterday. Texas general manager Chris Young has indicated the team is considering a QO but has thus far not made any definitive statement about the team’s course of action. If the Octagon client were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, the Rangers would pick up a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) next summer.

Assuming the Rangers go through with the QO, Pérez will have ten days to gauge interest from other teams before deciding whether to accept. A $19.65MM salary would easily be the highest single-season salary in the southpaw’s career, well above this year’s $4MM figure. That possible raise, of course, is a reflection of his All-Star 2022 campaign. The 31-year-old soaked up 196 1/3 innings through 32 starts, pitching to a 2.89 ERA while racking up grounders at a strong 51.4% clip.

That durability and reliability was particularly valuable to a Texas team that otherwise had a lackluster starting staff. Jon Gray was effective when healthy but battled some injury concerns during his first year in Arlington. Dane Dunning was a useful back-of-the-rotation arm, but the rest of Texas’ starters were inconsistent or ineffective. It’s little surprise the Rangers would look to keep Pérez around with the rotation presenting their biggest need, but there’s also reason to question how replicable his 2022 success may be.

Pérez had bounced around a bit in recent years. A top prospect early in his days with Texas, he had a decent age-22 campaign in 2013 but never took the anticipated jump to the top or middle of a rotation. Pérez posted an ERA above 4.30 every year between 2014-21, eventually moving from Texas to Minnesota to Boston. He consistently racked up innings and did a nice job keeping the ball on the ground, but his lack of missed bats limited his upside. Upon returning to the Rangers this year, he made some small tweaks to his repertoire, leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against left-handers and turning to his sinker more frequently against righties. However, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, nor were his underlying metrics too different from those of prior seasons.

His 20.6% strikeout rate was a career-high, but it was still a bit lower than the league mark. He got swinging strikes on only 8.4% of his offerings, a figure right in line with his 2020-21 clips. Pérez’s ground-ball rate bounced back to peak levels after a recent dip, but he’s posted back-of-the-rotation numbers while getting worm-burners half the time in the past. Much of his success was reliant on surrendering just one homer for every 18 innings pitched, the third-lowest rate among qualified starters and one he’s likely to have trouble sustaining over multiple years.

Financial terms of Texas’ offer aren’t clear, although that they seemingly didn’t put forth a guaranteed three-year proposal appears to reflect the front office’s balancing of those considerations. There’s no question Pérez was immensely valuable for the club in 2022, and Texas has made no secret about their hunt for quality starting pitching. At the same time, expecting him to consistently perform at or near this year’s level without a massive spike in velocity or whiffs nor a dramatic overhaul to his pitch usage is probably unrealistic.

Regardless of whether Pérez accepts the qualifying offer or the sides do wind up working out a multi-year deal, the front office will continue its search for rotation help. Young told reporters yesterday the team was “going to explore all ends of the (free agent) market” for starting pitching and expressed a willingness to add arms via trade (link via Levi Weaver of the Athletic). Texas took a step in solidifying the rotation this evening, sending Kolby Allard to Atlanta for Jake Odorizzi. With the Braves paying down Odorizzi’s contract to just $2.5MM, that represented a low-cost move for capable back-of-the-rotation innings, and there’s no question the Rangers will continue their search for higher-impact arms over the coming months.

Shoulder Surgery Under Consideration For Blake Treinen

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Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen battled shoulder discomfort in 2022 and missed the bulk of his year. Unfortunately, that remains a problem heading into the offseason, and it seems as if the injury will carry into next season.

L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this evening the team and Treinen are still working through treatment possibilities. While Gomes characterized surgery as one of multiple options under consideration, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register ominously reports that a procedure is “likely.” If Treinen did have to go under the knife, Plunkett adds, he’d require a 10-month recovery period and thus miss most or all of the 2023 campaign.

Treinen was limited to just five regular season appearances this year. He was on the injured list from April to September. Reinstated at the start of September, he made just two appearances before going back on the IL. The Dodgers activated Treinen for the postseason, calling upon him just once.

The injuries that caused that stop-and-start remain a concern, and Plunkett writes that both Treinen’s rotator cuff and labrum would be fixed if he goes under the knife. That’s certainly not what the Dodgers envisioned when signing the right-hander to an $8MM contract for 2023 in May. That deal also contains a club option for the 2024 campaign that’d be valued anywhere between $1MM and $7MM depending upon Treinen’s health for next season. Obviously, surgery wiping out much or all of his season — if necessary — would make it unlikely the Dodgers would trigger the option.

During his last healthy season, the veteran sinkerballer was one of the sport’s top late-game arms. The former All-Star worked to a 1.99 ERA across 72 1/3 innings in 2021, racking up grounders at a 52.6% clip.

Dodgers Considering Qualifying Offer For Tyler Anderson

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According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, there’s a “good chance” the Dodgers will extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to left-hander Tyler Anderson.

Teams have until 4pm Central on Thursday to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, giving the Dodgers about 24 hours left to make a final decision. If they indeed extend the offer to Anderson, he will have 10 days to talk to other teams and decide whether to accept it or turn it down.

The fact that Anderson is even a candidate for the offer speaks to what an incredible breakout season he had in 2022. Coming into the year, he had a career 4.62 ERA and fairly average peripherals with a 20.5 strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate. The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $8MM deal for his age-32 season.

That turned out to be a tremendous bargain for the club, as Anderson’s work in Dodger blue far surpassed any of his previous seasons. He appeared in 30 games and tossed 178 2/3 innings with an incredible 2.57 ERA, barely half of his previous average. His rate stats were still fairly similar to his previous ones, though he did drop his walk rate to a stingy 4.8%.

Where he seems to have made strides was inducing poor contact from opposing hitters. He was in the 98th percentile in terms of hard hit rate, going from 33% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022. His average exit velocity was also 98th percentile while his chase rate was 95th and his barrel rate was 86th. At least part of this could be credited to his changeup, which he threw 31.6% percent of the time compared to just 24.6% of the time in 2021.

Regardless of how he did it, the improvements are enough that the Dodgers are considering a salary more than double what they paid a year ago. If Anderson were to turn down the offer and sign elsewhere, they would be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their pick would be pushed back until after the fourth round. A signing team would also be subject to the forfeit of at least one pick, with other penalties on the table as well, depending on whether the team was a CBT payer or revenue sharing recipient.

Whether Anderson would accept the offer or not is an interesting question.  On the one hand, this is likely his best chance at earning a hefty multi-year paycheck, since he’s coming off a season that could well be the best of his career. On the other hand, he never had a salary above $2.5MM prior to getting the $8MM from the Dodgers a year ago. If he suddenly had a $19.65MM offer on the table, it would likely be hard to turn it down. Based on his excellent campaign, plenty of teams would be interested in signing him, though having to surrender at least one draft pick would temper their offers to some degree.

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