Cubs Sign Michael Fulmer
Feb. 20: The Cubs have formally announced the signing. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, right-hander Codi Heuer was placed on the 60-day injured list. Heuer is recovering from Tommy John surgery
Feb. 15: Fulmer and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $4MM contract tweets Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.
Feb. 10: The Cubs and free-agent righty Michael Fulmer are in agreement on a contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical. Fulmer is represented by BBI Sports Group.
In Fulmer, the Cubs are landing one of the few remaining quality relievers on the market. The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year broke into the Majors as a starter and thrived in that role before injuries — namely Tommy John surgery and a separate ulnar nerve transposition procedure — derailed his career. He returned to full strength in 2021 however, and after a few shaky starts early in the season, found a home in the Detroit bullpen.
From that point through the 2022 trade deadline, Fulmer was a rock-solid setup man and closer for a sub-.500 Tigers team. Detroit flipped him to the Twins prior to the 2022 trade deadline, receiving minor league pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long in return. Fulmer continued his smooth transition to the bullpen with a nice showing in Minnesota down the stretch, and he now touts a 2.90 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 39.2% grounder rate and 0.64 HR/9 mark in 111 2/3 innings since moving to a relief role on a full-time basis.
Fulmer had some command issues in the first half of the 2022 season, but those were largely ironed out following his trade to Minnesota, with whom he walked just 7.5% of the batters he faced. There are at least a handful of red flags on his 2022 season beyond the brief uptick in walks, however.
For instance, the 95.6 mph Fulmer averaged on his heater in 2021 dipped to 94.3 mph in 2022, while his 24.6% strikeout rate fell to 22.1% (and just 20.6% after the trade). The right-hander also went from one of the game’s best at managing hard contact (87th percentile average exit velocity, 76th percentile hard-hit rate) to just slightly above-average in 2022 (55th percentile exit velocity, 61st percentile hard-hit rate). Additionally, his strong 34.6% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate fell to 31.2% in 2022 — a career-low mark in a full 162-game season.
The extent to which factors like that combined to slow Fulmer’s market can’t be fully known, but it’s still a bit of a surprise that it took until the week before spring training for him to reach a deal. While financial terms of his contract haven’t yet come to light, the Cubs tend to wait out the market and scoop up veteran relievers at relatively bargain rates. Chicago hasn’t inked a reliever to a multi-year deal or even topped a $5MM guarantee for a reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel four years ago.
If that trend indeed continues, it could well prove to be a bargain for them. Fulmer isn’t a dominant, overpowering bullpen anchor, but he’s been a quality setup man with slightly above-average ability to miss bats, solid command and a knack for avoiding hard contact over the past two seasons. If his 2023 results fall in line anywhere between his 2021 and 2022 output, it’ll be a nice upgrade to a Cubs bullpen that is lacking in certainty.
Prior to the agreement with Fulmer, righties Brad Boxberger and Rowan Wick were the only relievers in the Chicago bullpen with even three years of Major League service time. The Cubs don’t have a set closer, so Fulmer figures to join Boxberger, Brandon Hughes and perhaps former top prospect Adbert Alzolay — who was excellent in a small sample of bullpen work last year — in competing for work in the ninth inning.
White Sox Sign Elvis Andrus
Feb. 20: The White Sox have announced the signing and confirmed the one-year, $3MM terms of the deal.
Feb. 19: The White Sox have signed infielder Elvis Andrus to a one-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The contract will become official when Andrus passes a physical, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that Andrus will earn a $3MM salary. Andrus is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Andrus returns to the south side of Chicago after hitting .271/.309/.464 over 191 plate appearances with the White Sox last season. Released by the A’s in August, the Sox quickly inked Andrus as a shortstop replacement for Tim Anderson, who ended up missing the rest of the season due to a torn hand ligament. While only over a small sample size, Andrus’ performance with the Sox marked his best offensive surge in years, as the veteran had struggled at the plate during the end of his tenure with the Rangers and for much of his two seasons in Oakland.
With Anderson now back and healthy, the White Sox will use Andrus as their regular second baseman. This is the first position change of Andrus’ 14-year MLB career, as he has exclusively played shortstop (with a handful of DH games) over his 1947 Major League games. Andrus has made exactly one professional appearance as a second baseman, and it happened way back in his first pro season of 2005 with the Braves’ rookie ball affiliate.
Lack of experience notwithstanding, there probably isn’t much doubt that Andrus can handle the new position, given that he was still posting quality defensive numbers (as per the UZR/150 and Outs Above Average metrics) as a shortstop as recently as 2022. It is certainly possible that Andrus’ glovework will be even better at an ostensibly easier position, which gives the White Sox a defensive boost heading into a season with new anti-shift rules coming into play.
The signing addresses a problem position for the Sox that has lingered all offseason. Chicago signed Hanser Alberto, Erik Gonzalez, and Nate Mondou to minor league contracts, yet neither represented any real upgrade to a second base position that generated only 0.3 bWAR for the White Sox over the entire 2022 season. With Andrus now in the fold, longtime utilityman Leury Garcia can now used in his usual multi-position role, and more inexperienced options like Romy Gonzalez and Lenyn Sosa can now compete for bench jobs or get more seasoning in the minor leagues.
The $3MM outlay for Andrus bumps Chicago’s payroll to roughly $189.1MM, as per Roster Resource. This is a little less than the approximately $193MM the White Sox spent last season, though GM Rick Hahn indicated back in November that the club was planning to have around the same payroll as it did in 2022. Some reports suggested that the Sox would even try to cut payroll down to around $180MM, though that plan may have been abandoned in light of rising free agent costs and a relative lack of league-wide action on the trade market. If the Sox were in contention at midseason, owner Jerry Reinsdorf could possibly okay another payroll bump for a trade deadline addition, even if it’s probably safe to assume that a real spending splurge isn’t coming.
The Angels and Red Sox were the only teams publicly known to have interest in Andrus this winter, with Boston emerging in the wake of Trevor Story‘s internal-brace surgery on his right elbow. There was obviously a lot of action on the shortstop market this offseason, but once the big names of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson all signed their contracts, remaining teams with shortstop needs seemed more willing to test out internal options rather than pursue a veteran like Andrus. Becoming a second baseman might reflect the reality of the market for Andrus, or he might’ve just preferred an everyday role at a new position (and in a familiar environment) rather than remain a shortstop on a new team, but in more of a part-time capacity.
Manny Machado Set Feb 16 Deadline For Padres Extension Talks; Team Offered Further Five-Years, $105MM
Manny Machado set the Padres a deadline of February 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five-years and $105MM to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15-years, $405MM. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five-years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a ten-year, $255MM deal.
According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that in early December he set the Padres a deadline of February 16 because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So once the season started, I didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the guys in here and what our goal is — to win a championship. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just focus on baseball, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he received just the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the terms reported.
Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed just yesterday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five-years, $150MM on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and at 30 is both young enough and good enough to earn a long term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.
While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new team mate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280MM deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than ten-years, $255MM.
Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner up in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.
With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.
Manny Machado Planning To Exercise Opt-Out Following 2023 Season
Padres superstar Manny Machado today confirmed to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, that he plans on opting out of the remainder of his contract following the 2023 season. Machado signed his current 10-year, $300MM agreement with San Diego ahead of the 2019 season, and in opting out would leave five years, $150MM left on the table from his current contract.
This decision is no real surprise, as that $150MM figure appears to be one Machado should have no trouble beating on the open market next offseason, provided he remains healthy. After an offseason that saw top free agent Aaron Judge sign a $360MM deal that begins in his age 31 season, it seems like a reasonable bet that Machado, who would also be entering free agency ahead of his age 31 season, might become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career, though he obviously would not be playing through the entirety of his first one.
Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract. The runner-up for the NL MVP award in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-5 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award under his belt. With a career 124 wRC+, strong defense at third base, and 46.4 fWAR already accrued in his career, Machado appears to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, particularly considering the fact that his offensive game has taken a step up in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2018 season, Machado’s wRC+ is 133, and it jumps to 139 when examining the 2020-2022 seasons.
As Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated notes, Machado is looking to sign for double-digit years, a mark Judge barely missed with his nine-year pact this offseason but shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both managed to eclipse. This appears to be a reasonable ask, particularly given that Machado seems likely to be the consensus top free agent in the 2023-24 free agent class after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani. A 10-year deal for Machado would take him through his age-40 campaign, an age teams seem to be increasingly willing to sign players through this offseason than in years past.
The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals. They signed both Bogaerts and Yu Darvish to deals that will take them beyond their 40th birthdays this offseason, and made similar offers to both Turner and Judge as well. Despite Machado’s plans to opt-out following the 2023 campaign, there appears to be interest in an extension, with the Padres reportedly set to pursue a new deal with Machado this spring, it’s possible that San Diego’s comfort in signing players through their age-40 seasons would give them a leg up in negotiations.
On the other hand, the Padres are in a somewhat difficult payroll situation. They’re a lock to pay into the luxury tax in 2023, already have two long-term megadeals on the books in Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., and on top of all that, Juan Soto‘s free agency is looming following the 2024 season. It seems to be a reasonable question as to whether or not they can maintain their current payroll levels at all, much less add to them as they would need to in order to retain Machado and Soto.
Phillies, Aaron Nola Have Recently Exchanged Extension Offers
The Phillies and representatives for ace Aaron Nola have discussed a possible contract extension this spring, reports Matt Gelb of the Athletic. The numbers under consideration are unclear. Gelb adds the sides have exchanged formal proposals and suggests there’s optimism about the chances of getting a deal done at some point.
As things stand, the former seventh overall pick is on track to be one of the top free agents on next winter’s market. Rival clubs would surely love an opportunity to make a run at the All-Star. Nola expressed a desire to work something out with Philadelphia instead, though he noted he’s leaving most of the details to his agents at Paragon Sports International.
“My reps are handling it. I don’t really know, honestly,” Nola said about the status of talks (via Gelb). “I love it here. I think everybody loves it here.” Nola suggested his camp would table discussions until season’s end if no deal were in place by Opening Day. “I want to focus on the season, definitely. We’d have to reopen it after the season, for sure. But during the season, I want to stay focused on that: playing good ball, trying to win a championship.”
Nola is coming off another excellent year, one that landed him a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. It was the third top ten placement of his career and a fairly typical showing by his standards. Nola made all 32 starts and threw 205 innings. He posted a 3.25 ERA with an excellent 29.1% strikeout percentage and a 3.6% walk rate that was among the league’s lowest. That marked the third consecutive season in which he fanned upwards of 29% of batters faced while generating swinging strikes on at least 12% of his pitches.
In addition to his excellent rate performance, Nola has arguably been the sport’s predominant workhorse over the past few seasons. He’s respectively made 33, 34, 32 and 32 starts in each of the last four 162-game seasons and took the ball all 12 times during the shortened schedule. Since the start of 2018, Nola leads the majors with both 143 starts and 871 2/3 innings. He’s one of just five hurlers to surpass the 800-inning mark in that time. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list, he hasn’t missed any time since a 2016 elbow strain.
Nola and Julio Urías join two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani as the top starting pitchers on track for free agency. If he did hit the open market, it’d be the first trip of his career. Nola has spent his entire career with Philadelphia, signing a $45MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. That deal came with a $16MM club option for the 2023 campaign, one the Phils made the obvious decision to exercise last fall.
There’s no question Nola is in line for a much more significant payday this time around — either via another extension or free agent deal. He turns 30 in June, so he’s still in position for a long-term pact despite his first extension pushing back his initial path to free agency by two years. Nola’s combination of performance track record, age and durability could make him one of the top free agent pitchers of the last couple seasons.
Jacob deGrom landed the highest guarantee of any free pitcher the past few years, securing $185MM over five seasons from the Rangers. deGrom is the best pitcher in the sport on a rate basis but headed into his age-35 campaign with 2021-22 injury issues. The more apt comparison point for Nola is Carlos Rodón, who secured six years and $162MM from the Yankees this winter.
Rodón is a few months younger now than Nola will be next offseason but the age gap is fairly minor. The Yankee southpaw has been more overpowering over the past two seasons, striking out almost 34% of opponents with a 2.67 ERA. Rodón throws harder and is arguably the more dominant pitcher on a per-inning basis while Nola has a significant edge from a durability perspective. Nola has topped 200 innings in his career on three separate occasions. Rodón, who missed extended chunks of action from 2018-20 thanks to elbow and shoulder surgeries, has never topped the 178 frames he threw last year.
There’s an argument for Nola’s camp to beat the Rodón deal, perhaps by a decent margin. The Phillies righty compares reasonably well to Stephen Strasburg over the three seasons prior to his seven-year, $245MM megadeal with the Nationals from the 2019-20 offseason. Over the last three seasons, Nola has thrown 457 innings with a 3.80 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk percentage. In the three years leading up to his contract, Strasburg had tossed 514 1/3 innings (an edge attributable to the shortened 2020 schedule) of 3.15 ERA ball with a 29.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk percentage.
Strasburg secured his contract — the second-largest pitcher deal in MLB history — on the heels of a stellar playoff run culminating in a championship and World Series MVP award. Nola doesn’t have that kind of momentum leading up to extension discussions, and it’s hard to envision the Phillies matching the Strasburg deal while Nola is a year away from the open market. Still, it serves as an example of the kind of heights a pitcher of his caliber can reach in free agency if he hits the market coming off a peak platform season.
The Phillies haven’t been averse to long-term commitments. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each reached or topped the $300MM mark. The Phils went into nine figures to land Zack Wheeler and Nick Castellanos and to retain J.T. Realmuto. Wheeler will make $23.5MM in 2024, the final season of his five-year contract. Taijuan Walker is locked into the rotation for the next four years on this winter’s $72MM deal. Ranger Suárez is controllable via arbitration through 2025, while top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel are viewed as long-term rotation building blocks.
There’s a fair bit of talent on the starting staff. That seems unlikely to deter the Phils from making a serious run at retaining Nola, however, considering how impactful he’s been over the past half-decade. Whether they can reach an agreement within the next six weeks is going to be a key storyline in camp.
Rangers Sign Robbie Grossman
The Rangers announced agreement with veteran outfielder Robbie Grossman on a one-year major league contract. The deal will reportedly guarantee him $2MM and can max out at $5MM via performance bonuses. Grossman is an Alliance Sports Management client.
To create a spot on the 40-man roster, Texas placed reliever Brett Martin on the 60-day injured list. He underwent shoulder surgery last month and the club announced he’ll miss “a majority” of the upcoming season.
Grossman, 33, joins the sixth team of his big league career. He’s played parts of ten MLB seasons, suiting up with the Astros, Twins, A’s, Tigers and Braves going back to 2013. A switch-hitter, Grossman has carved out an outfield role at various stops thanks in large part to his quality production from the right-handed batter’s box. For his career, he owns a .279/.377/.413 line with an excellent 13.1% walk rate and modest 19.6% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching.
The former sixth-round draftee continued in his lefty-masher capacity last season. He hit .320/.436/.443 in 149 trips against southpaws. He paired that with just a .163/.253/.256 showing over 328 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. That resulted in a modest .209/.310/.311 line over 120 games overall, with Grossman performing at a below-average level both before and following a midseason trade from Detroit to Atlanta.
That points to Grossman taking on more of a situational platoon role, though he’s not typically a liability against right-handed pitching. While he’s consistently better against lefties, he owns a career .232/.335/.363 line against righties that isn’t too far below league average. Grossman has never hit for much power and strikes out more often from the left side of the plate, though he’s typically adept at working deep counts and drawing plenty of walks no matter the pitcher’s handedness.
Defensively, Grossman is limited to the corner outfield. He’s logged more experience in left field but has an extensive body of work at both spots, with public metrics rating him as a roughly average gloveman. He’ll primarily factor into the left field mix in Arlington, with Adolis García penciled into everyday work in the other corner position. Left field is much more of a question mark, one Texas GM Chris Young has suggested on a number of occasions he was hoping to plug externally.
Rangers’ left fielders combined for a .186/.253/.255 line last season. They finished at the bottom of the league in all three rate stats, with their slugging mark checking in nearly .080 points below that of the 29th-ranked Mariners. Grossman isn’t a huge power threat but should help the club rebound from an on-base perspective, particularly if manager Bruce Bochy deploys him more frequently in friendly platoon situations.
Left-handed hitting utilityman Brad Miller is going into the second season of a $10MM free agent deal. He had an awful first year in Texas, hitting just .212/.270/.320 while missing half the team’s games due to a hip injury. Miller posted a much stronger .250/.344/.487 line against right-handed pitching between 2018-21, however. Texas figures to give him a chance to rebound in left field, with Grossman on hand to take some at-bats against lefty arms.
Speedster Bubba Thompson and former infield prospects Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán could all play their way into left field reps as well. None of that group made much of an offensive impact last season. That’s also true of Grossman on the whole, though he’ll at least add a solid career track record to a hodgepodge of left field possibilities. It’s certainly possible Texas looks to augment the group with a more established veteran in a midseason trade — particularly if they’re in the playoff hunt by July — but they figure to mix and match out there in the season’s early going.
Tacking on Grossman’s modest salary brings Texas’ 2023 payroll commitments around $198MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s well into franchise record territory already, with owner Ray Davis and the front office kicking off consecutive offseason spending sprees to try to vault back to competitiveness. They’re currently sitting on a six-year playoff drought, tied with Baltimore for the fourth-longest active streak in the American League. Grossman’s deal takes them around $221MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s $12MM shy of the $233MM base threshold, leaving a decent amount of space for midseason acquisitions even if they want to dodge any overage fees.
Signing Grossman looks likely to take the Rangers out of the mix for any of the remaining free agent corner outfielders. Jurickson Profar is the top player still unsigned and his market now looks as clouded as ever. Ben Gamel and Tyler Naquin are among lower-profile role-playing corner outfielders still looking for jobs.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Grossman and the Rangers were in agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported it was a one-year, $2MM guarantee with $3MM in additional incentives.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Phillies Extend Jose Alvarado
The Phillies have signed lefty reliever Jose Alvarado to a three year contract, per a team announcement. The deal keeps Alvarado in Philadelphia through at least the 2025 season, and includes a club option for 2026. Alvarado is represented by OL Baseball Group.
According to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, Alvarado will earn $9MM in each of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with a $50K signing bonus. The 2026 club option is for $9MM, with a $500k buyout. Alvarado and the club already agreed to a $3.45MM salary for 2023 to avoid arbitration, effectively making this three-year, $22MM contract a two-year, $18.55MM extension. Still, it’s a three-year contract for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Phillies will be taxed on a $7.33MM AAV for 2023, as opposed to the previous $3.45MM figure. On the other hand, this also lowers the tax figure for 2024 and 2025 seasons compared to the $9.275MM figure it would have been if structured as a two year deal.
Alvarado, 28 in May, is coming off a phenomenal 2022 season that saw him post a 3.18 ERA across 51 innings of work. While that figure is good for a solidly above-average ERA+ of 129, digging a little deeper reveals that Alvarado posted a dazzling 1.92 FIP last season, the fourth best in baseball, minimum 50 innings pitched. The discrepancy between Alvarado’s run prevention and his underlying metrics likely comes from an inflated .340 BABIP that stands well above his career .302 mark. The rare lefty who can touch triple digits with his fastball, Alvarado’s success came in large part from a 37.9% strikeout rate, which stood as 7th in baseball among those with at least 50 IP.
Alvarado’s success came from more than just strikeouts, however. As a sinkerballer, Alvarado also managed to keep the ball on the ground at and impressive 56.1% clip. Only Jhoan Duran of the Twins had a higher groundball rate while striking out at least 30% of batters faced, while no pitcher who struck out batters at a higher clip than Alvarado induced grounders at a rate of even 50%. That mix of strikeouts and groundballs is a strong recipe for success, and by signing Alvarado long term, the Phillies are indicating confidence in his ability to continue his success past his 30th birthday.
Early in the offseason, the top end of the free agent market exploded, with Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero signing early for surprising guarantees in re-signing with their previous clubs. Suarez secured $46MM from the Padres, while Montero received $34.5MM from the Astros. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, landed a $33MM guarantee in San Francisco. Those figures all outstrip Alvarado’s guarantee by a considerable amount, but the $18.55MM in new money surpasses the guarantees of free agent lefties who signed later this offseason such as Matt Strahm ($15MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), and Matt Moore, ($7.55MM). Given how Alvarado’s deal stacks up well against fellow relievers in his service bracket like Ryan Pressly, Huston Street, and Daniel Bard, taking this deal is an understandable decision for him. While there’s risk he continues to dominate as he did in 2022, the Phillies are risking that his struggles with injuries and command resurface from earlier in his career and limit his abilities going forward.
This is the second extension at the back of the Phillies’ bullpen in as many days, as the club agreed to a deal Seranthony Dominguez yesterday that could keep Dominguez in Philadelphia through the 2025 season. With these deals, the Phillies have locked up a pair of exciting, high-octane arms who can be penciled in for late inning duties alongside Strahm and Gregory Soto for the next few seasons. Having also also added Craig Kimbrel to their late inning mix for the 2023 season last month, the Phillies appear to have turned a bullpen that has long been considered an area of weakness for the club into a strength as they attempt to return to the World Series after last year’s surprise postseason run.
Phillies Extend Seranthony Dominguez
The Phillies and right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez are in agreement on a two-year contract to avoid arbitration, according to a team announcement. The deal includes a club option for the 2025 season, which extends Philadelphia’s window of club control on Dominguez by one year. The deal guarantees him $7.25MM, MLBTR has learned. He’ll be paid $2.5MM in 2023, $4.25MM in 2024 and has a $500K buyout on an $8MM club option for the 2025 season. Dominguez is represented by Epitome Sports Management.
The 28-year-old Dominguez and the Phillies had faced a relatively wide gap in the arbitration figures they exchanged, with the team submitting a $2.1MM figure to Dominguez’s $2.9MM submission. He’ll now have his salaries for the next two seasons locked in, gaining some financial security in exchange for control over what would’ve been his first arbitration season.
It’s an understandable trade to make in Dominguez’s case, given the electric right-hander’s lengthy injury history. Dominguez’s sheer talent has never been in doubt. He debuted as a 23-year-old back in 2018 and immediately thrust himself into the mix for leverage innings with the Phillies, pitching to a 2.95 ERA with a huge 32% strikeout rate against a 9.5% walk rate in 58 innings. Brandishing a four-seamer that averaged a whopping 97.8 mph (and a sinker that sat 98.3 mph), Dominguez dominated opposing lineups, yielding a woefully anemic .157/.251/.250 batting line during his rookie campaign.
However, an elbow strain in June of 2019 shelved Dominguez, eventually leading to the discovery of damage in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. After a visit to Dr. James Andrews, Dominguez followed the recommended treatment of a platelet-rich plasma injection and rehab. After all, given that his UCL injury occurred in the summer, he’d likely have missed the entire 2020 campaign (or close to it) whether he underwent surgery immediately or whether he first attempted to rehab.
The treatment appeared to work at first. Dominguez reported to camp in 2020 and was expected to be ready early in the season, if not by Opening Day. He suffered a setback early in camp, though, at which point a Tommy John procedure was recommended. Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic delayed the timing of the procedure, pushing the surgery back into late July. He returned to throw just one inning late in the 2021 season.
By the time Dominguez took the mound in 2022, he was more than 18 months removed from surgery and nearly three calendar years removed his original elbow injury. The operation and the time off appeared to do wonders, as the flamethrowing righty looked like his 2018 self, pitching 51 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate while averaging 97.8 mph on his four-seamer and 98.4 mph on his sinker. Dominguez’s 14% swinging-strike rate wasn’t quite back to its 2018 levels (an outstanding 15.5%), but he induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently (32.3% in 2022, 29.6% in 2018) and was nearly every bit as stingy when it came to surrendering home runs (0.71 HR/9).
Now a locked-in member of the Philadelphia relief corps for at least the next two seasons, Dominguez will have the peace of mind both of having pitched a full season since undergoing surgery and also having secured the first life-changing guarantee of his career. He’ll be in the mix for saves alongside lefty Jose Alvarado, free-agent signee Craig Kimbrel and trade acquisition Gregory Soto — a quartet that will give Philadelphia one of the hardest-throwing bullpens — if not the hardest-throwing bullpen — in the sport. And, with Alvardo entering his final season of club control and Kimbrel playing the 2023 season on a one-year deal, it’s possible that Dominguez could emerge as the go-to option in the ninth inning by the time 2024 rolls around.
Even if the Phillies pick up their club option on Dominguez, he’ll still reach free agency in advance of his age-31 season. That’d still put him on the market early enough to land a sizable multi-year deal in free agency, and he’d have that opportunity after already banking $14.75MM over the course of this current contract.
Dominguez’s two-year contract will carry a slightly larger luxury-tax hit than he’d have cost the club by just inking a one-year deal. The Phils are already into the second tier of luxury penalization, meaning they’re being taxed at a 45% clip for any dollars spent between the $253MM and $273MM endpoints on the luxury scale. The $3.625MM average annual value on Dominguez’s deal comes with a $1.63MM luxury hit, rather than the $1.125MM hit he’d have cost them had he inked a one-year deal at the $2.5MM midpoint between their exchanged figures. Nevertheless, the Phillies are nowhere close to the $273MM barrier for the third tier of penalization, which is the most onerous of the luxury tiers, as that’s the point at which a team sees its top pick in the following year’s draft dropped by 10 places.
Angels Sign Matt Moore
The Angels added veteran help to their bullpen Thursday, announcing the signing of left-hander Matt Moore to a one-year, $7.55MM contract. Right-hander Davis Daniel, who’s dealing with a shoulder strain, was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Moore is represented by Apex Baseball.
Moore began his career in 2011 as a starting pitcher for the Rays and pitched effectively, even earning an All Star appearance and down-ballot Cy Young award votes in 2013. Unfortunately, Moore missed most of the 2014 season after receiving Tommy John surgery, and struggled to remain effective as a starter following the procedure. In 557 2/3 innings across the 2014-19 seasons, Moore struggled to a 5.08 ERA (83 ERA+) while spending time as a member of the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers.
These struggles led Moore to Japan, where he pitched well as a reliever during the 2020 season. In 2021, he returned to stateside ball, but struggled once again in a swing role for the Phillies, posting a 6.29 ERA (67 ERA+) in 73 innings. The following offseason, Moore had to settle for a minor league contract with the Rangers, who he had previously pitched for during the 2018 season. That minors deal proved to be a stroke of genius by the Rangers front office, as Moore posted an astonishing 1.95 ERA (203 ERA+) across 74 innings in 2022.
Moore’s extreme success last season wasn’t entirely supported by his peripherals. He allowed a BABIP of just .257, nearly 40 points below his career norms, and his FIP came in more than a full run higher than his ERA. That same FIP is still a strong 2.98, however, and many underlying metrics reveal plenty of reason for optimism about Moore’s future headed into his age-34 season. His fastball gained an average of 1.5 mph in velocity in 2022, which allowed Moore to rack up far more strikeouts than he had previously. In 2021, Moore struck out just 18.9% of batters faced, but 2022 saw that figure climb all the way to 27.3%.
In addition, his began to allow much weaker contact in 2022, with his hard contact rate dropping from 35.5% all the way to 22.5% while his soft contact rate leapt from 14.3% up to 22%. Striking out batters at a clip similar to that of Luis Castillo (27.2% strikeout rate) while generating nearly as much weak contact as Max Scherzer (22.7% soft contact rate) is certainly a recipe for success, so it’s easy to see why the Angels would want to add Moore to their mix at the back of a bullpen that currently features Carlos Estevez, Ryan Tepera, and Aaron Loup among its top options.
With that being said, the Halos are almost certainly hoping they can find a way to help their new reliever limit his walks. Moore’s walk rate of 12.5% was third worst in the majors among all pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, ahead of just Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Smith. Moore’s sensational 2022 proves that if you can strike batters out at an elevated clip while limiting hard contact it’s still possible to have success even when you walk too many batters, as does the success of pitchers like Jorge Lopez and Dylan Cease. Nonetheless, Moore’s penchant for allowing free passes puts more pressure on the rest of his skills to hold up at their current top-tier levels if he’s going to remain among the best relievers in the game, as he was in 2022.
Moore’s signing continues what has been a fairly aggressive offseason from the Angels. While the club didn’t sign a marquee free agent or swing a blockbuster trade, they’ve added much-needed depth to a roster that already had plenty of star power and made important upgrades to almost every position on the roster. Moore and fellow free-agent acquisition Estevez strengthen the bullpen, while the signing of Tyler Anderson improves the rotation. Meanwhile, the lineup is bolstered by the additions of Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela, and Brandon Drury.
The Halos still have an uphill battle in the AL West this year, as the 2022 World Series champion Astros don’t appear to be slowing down, the Mariners are still on the upswing, and the Rangers had a second straight offseason full of splashy additions. Nonetheless, it’s clear that Moore makes the Angels better, even in spite of his age, walk rate, and lacking track record prior to 2022. If he manages to have a season resembling the one he had last year again, it’s easy to see a world where Angels fans no longer miss old closer Raisel Iglesias, who was sent to Atlanta at last year’s trade deadline.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Moore were nearing an agreement. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported it was a one-year contract.
Padres, Cole Hamels In Agreement On Minor League Deal
10:18pm: Hamels’ deal would contain a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster, reports Bernie Wilson of the Associated Press.
3:20pm: The Padres and left-hander Cole Hamels are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Presumably, Hamels will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training once the deal is finalized. The southpaw is represented by John Boggs & Associates.
Hamels, 39, is a wild card at this point in his career. He spent many years as one of the most reliable and consistent hurlers in the big leagues but has barely pitched at all over the past three seasons. From 2006 through 2019, he logged just shy of 2,700 innings with a 3.42 ERA in that time. He pitched at least 132 frames in all 14 of those campaigns and topped 180 in 11 of them. His ERA was never higher than 4.32 in any individual season and he kept that mark under 4.00 in all but three of those years. He also pitched in the postseason in eight of those campaigns, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors in 2008 with the world champion Phillies.
But as mentioned, the story has been flipped in recent years. Hamels signed a one-year, $18MM deal with Atlanta for 2020 but was slowed by shoulder irritation as the start of the season neared. The pandemic ended up putting everything on pause, giving him time to recuperate. Once things ramped up again, however, he was dealing with triceps tendinitis. He came off the injured list in September and made one start, but went right back on the IL after that.
He didn’t sign with anyone in the subsequent offseason, eventually holding a showcase in July of 2021 to demonstrate his health to interested clubs. The Dodgers signed him at that point but he was ruled out for the season just a couple of weeks later with his shoulder pain returning. He didn’t pitch at all in 2022, recently telling the Associated Press that he underwent three surgeries in the past year, on his left shoulder, right knee and left foot. Nonetheless, he still had his sights set on a comeback and held a showcase for scouts last month. The Padres were connected to him and Michael Wacha in rumors a few days ago and have now added both pitchers to their staff.
It’s tough to know what to expect from Hamels at this point. That single start in 2020 is his only appearance over the past three years and he’s been under the knife quite a bit since then. But since this is just a minor league deal, there’s no real risk for the Padres. They can bring him into camp and see if Hamels is capable of getting back on track at all.
Up until recently, the club had a fairly lopsided rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell provided them with a strong front three but there were question marks behind them. The frontrunners for the backend spots in the rotation were Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, both of whom are not really established as starters. Martinez had better results out of the bullpen last year while Lugo hasn’t really been a starter since 2017. The signing of Wacha this week could help to firm up the back of the rotation since he put up a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox last year.
Hamels will be trying to prove himself healthy and force his way into that mix. If either Lugo or Martinez struggle in their attempts to secure rotation jobs, the Padres will need other options on hand. And there are also the inevitable pitcher injuries to consider. They have other options on the roster, such as Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Brent Honeywell Jr., Reiss Knehr, Ryan Weathers and Pedro Avila, but if Hamels looks anything like his old self, he could leapfrog all of those guys. If he does so, he’ll be pitching for his hometown team, having been born and raised in the San Diego area.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.