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Cardinals Dismiss Manager Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals have fired manager Mike Shildt, as first reported by Rob Rains of StLSportsPage (Twitter link). At a press conference announcing the news, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Jeff Passan of ESPN) the organization made the decision based on “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office about the direction of the franchise.

It’s a shocking development, since there was no prior indication Shildt’s job was in jeopardy. Indeed, the broader expectation as recently as last week had been that Shildt and the team would try to work out a contract extension, with his current deal running only through the 2022 season. Instead, the Cardinals will go in another direction in spite of the club’s strong run of play during Shildt’s tenure.

Today’s announcement concludes Shildt’s nearly two decades in the Cardinal organization. The 53-year-old began his career as a scout and minor league coach in the St. Louis system in the early 2000’s, steadily working his way up the organizational ladder. By 2017, he’d earned a spot on the big league coaching staff, and he took over as the major league manager on an interim basis in July 2018 when the club fired Mike Matheny. The team removed the interim tag a month later.

St. Louis won the NL Central and advanced to the NLCS in 2019, Shildt’s first full season at the helm. They finished in second place and lost in the Wild Card round during last year’s shortened season. This year, the Cardinals hovered right around .500 for the first few months before rattling off a miraculous 17-game win streak in September to coast to a Wild Card spot. St. Louis lost to the Dodgers in last week’s Wild Card game and ultimately won just one playoff series during Shildt’s tenure, but the club advanced to the playoffs all three years in which he was at the helm.

While there’s little to quibble with from a results perspective, the front office clearly determined a new voice was needed behind the scenes. While announcing the news, Mozeliak noted that the Cardinals believe they have “quality internal candidates” who could be options to step into the manager’s office, although he declined additional comment when asked whether the team planned to stay internal or look outside the organization for Shildt’s replacement (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Mozeliak added that he hoped the rest of the coaching staff would return in 2022, although that’s yet to be determined.

Given the Cardinals’ success under Shildt, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land another coaching or managerial position elsewhere in the near future. He was named the National League’s manager of the year in 2019 and his teams posted a 252-199 record (55.9% winning percentage) over the past three-plus seasons.

The Cardinals become the third team looking for a new manager this offseason. The Padres fired Jayce Tingler a few days after the end of the regular season, while the Mets announced they would not pick up their 2022 option on skipper Luis Rojas.

Qualifying Offer Value Set At $18.4MM

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This year’s qualifying offer will be worth $18.4MM, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter).  This represents a drop from last year’s $18.9MM figure, and the second time in the history of the qualifying offer that the value has declined from the previous season.  The QO was worth $17.8MM in the 2019-20 offseason, slightly below the $17.9MM price tag for the winter of 2018-19.

The qualifying offer is recalculated annually, as it is determined by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball.  The $500K drop from last year therefore looks like a reflection of the slower market of the 2020-21 offseason, as several teams spent less in the wake of reported and claimed revenue losses from the pandemic.

Still, the lower figure still counts as a surprise, as the general feeling was that the QO would end up rising to somewhere in the $19-$20MM range for the coming offseason.  Originally instituted for the 2012-13 offseason, the qualifying offer has varied annually but generally increases year-over-year:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM

To recap the QO process, teams can issue a one-year contract to any of their free agents who a) have never received a qualifying offer, and b) have been with the team for the entirety of the previous season.  For instance, impending free agents like Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, or Kyle Schwarber can’t receive qualifying offers since they were traded at midseason.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently compiled a list of every player who has already been issued a qualifying offer in the past, for reference purposes.

Players who receive a qualifying offer have 10 days to make their decision, and if a player accepts a QO this winter, he’ll return to his club on a one-year contract and earn an $18.4MM salary in 2022.  (A player can also work out a longer-term extension with his team after accepting a qualifying offer, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  If the player rejects the QO, his new team will have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international spending pool money in order to make the signing, and his former team will receive a compensatory draft pick.

Back in August, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco broke down which of this winter’s free agents are likeliest to receive a qualifying offer, and which players might be more borderline cases.  As we’ve seen in the past, a QO can have a significant impact on a player’s earning potential, if teams are hesitant about surrendering significant draft capital or a hefty one-year salary to a free agent who might be a riskier candidate to provide elite value going forward.

This potential dampening effect of the QO has long been a thorn in the side of agents and the MLB Players Association, and the future of the qualifying offer figures to be a notable topic in negotiations over the new collective bargaining agreement.  It is quite possible that 2021-22 will be the last offseason featuring the qualifying offer in its current form, though it isn’t likely that owners will be keen on removing signing compensation and/or penalties from the free agent process.

Jorge Soler Tests Positive For COVID-19; Cristian Pache Added To Braves’ NLDS Roster

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Braves outfielder Jorge Soler has been removed from his team’s NLDS roster due to a positive test for COVID-19, the league announced.  Cristian Pache has been approved as a substitute to take Soler’s spot on the roster.  Soler will be allowed to return the club once he clears COVID protocols.

The news comes less than two hours before the Braves look to close out the Brewers in Game 4 of their NLDS series.  Soler had been announced as Atlanta’s starting right fielder and leadoff hitter in the game, but the revised lineup now sees Joc Pederson slide from left field to right, Adam Duvall from center to left field, and Guillermo Heredia (batting eighth) added as the new starter in center.

Soler will be quarantined for at least five days, as per David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link), and he has to cleared as non-infectious by a four-person joint health and safety committee (two doctors, and one representative each from the league and the players’ union).  If he is able to return after only that five-day minimum, Soler would possibly be in line to play by Game 2 of the National League Championship Series if the Braves advance past Milwaukee.

It has been a tough postseason for Soler, who has only one hit in 13 NLDS plate appearances.  Nonetheless, the veteran was a big reason why Atlanta won the NL East in the first place, as Soler hit .269/.358/.524 with 14 home runs over 242 PA after being acquired from the Royals in a trade deadline deal.  Soler had struggled over the first four months of the season, so his re-emergence with the Braves will surely help the 29-year-old’s case in free agency this winter.

The bigger issue at hand for the moment, however, is that the Braves now have a significant hole in their lineup.  The trio of Pederson, Duvall, and Eddie Rosario (along with Soler, all midseason pickups) now projects as Atlanta’s first-choice outfield, with Heredia, Pache, Terrance Gore, and utilitymen Ehire Adrianza and Orlando Arcia all providing additional depth.

Clayton Kershaw Will Not Require Surgery, Will Not Pitch This Postseason

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OCTOBER 8: Kershaw told reporters he had a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing elbow yesterday (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). That officially brings to an end any chance of his pitching this postseason, but Kershaw said he expects to be ready for Spring Training in 2022.

OCTOBER 5: Clayton Kershaw left his most recent regular season start on account of recurring forearm discomfort. The Dodgers star did not suffer any UCL damage and will not require surgery, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). Nevertheless, the three-time Cy Young award winner is not expected to return this postseason.

The news comes as something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, it certainly seemed ominous when Kershaw left his final start of the year with forearm discomfort, not long after returning from a two-plus month absence due to the same issue. It’s certainly a relief that in spite of that recurring problem, Kershaw won’t need to go under the knife.

That said, he’ll no doubt be disappointed he’s not able to return to help the Dodgers’ efforts to repeat as World Series winners. It’s possible Kershaw wouldn’t have pitched in the postseason even were he healthy. Max Scherzer was likely to get the ball in tomorrow evening’s Wild Card game anyhow, and the Dodgers’ title defense could end with that lone contest. But a lengthier playoff run would surely have seen a healthy Kershaw logging some important innings, and that’ll no longer be the case.

It’s also particularly unfortunate timing for Kershaw personally. The 33-year-old is slated to hit the open market this winter. When healthy, Kershaw has again been excellent. Over 121 2/3 innings, the former MVP worked to a 3.55 ERA while striking out a strong 29.5% of batters faced and issuing walks at just a 4.3% clip. Kershaw’s velocity has steadily ticked downwards in recent seasons, but he’s nevertheless been among the game’s most effective pitchers year in and year out. He was trending towards being one of the top starters available in free agency this offseason, but his recent health woes will throw a wrench in that evaluation for teams.

The Dodgers also provided an update on Max Muncy, who injured his elbow in a collision at first base during Sunday’s regular season finale. Muncy told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) he suffered a dislocated elbow and some structural damage. Fortunately, he won’t require surgical repair. Roberts didn’t rule out the possibility of Muncy returning at some point this postseason (Toribio link).

Rockies Extend Antonio Senzatela

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October 6: According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Senzatela can increase his annual salary by meeting thresholds of innings pitched. By reaching 200 innings in 2022, he will add $1MM to his salary in each season from 2024 to 2027, and the same applies for 2023. That means Senzatela has the potential to add $8MM to his payout.

October 5: The Rockies announced this afternoon they’ve agreed to a five-year contract extension with right-hander Antonio Senzatela. He’ll be guaranteed $50.5MM, and the deal also contains a club option for the 2027 season. Senzatela, a client of Republik Sports, was headed into his second trip through the arbitration process and had previously been under club control through the 2023 season.

Antonio Senzatela |Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a rather surprising first move for newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt, who shed the “interim” tag from his title over the weekend. Senzatela has, at times, looked the part of a durable innings eater with a grounder-heavy approach, but he also possesses one of Major League Baseball’s lowest strikeout rates and was only in line for a modest raise on this season’s $3MM salary in arbitration. He’ll now earn $7.25MM in both 2022 and 2023 before taking home $12MM annually from 2024-26. The 2027 option is valued at $14MM.

Senzatela, 26, has been a durable rotation cog for Colorado over the past few seasons, although it’s worth noting that as recently as 2019, he was optioned to Triple-A and finished the season with an ERA just shy of 7.00. The right-hander was hammered for a 10.34 ERA from July through September that season but has enjoyed much more success since returning.

In 40 starts and 230 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, he’s worked to a combined 4.11 earned run average — albeit with a 15% strikeout rate that ranks 188th of the 198 starting pitchers to have thrown at least 100 innings in that time. Senzatela ranks on the opposite end of the pendulum with the 15th-best walk rate in that time (5.1%) and the 22nd-ranked ground-ball percentage (51.1%).

Clearly, the Rockies are betting that he’ll be able to continue to suppress runs at a roughly average rate, leaning heavily on his blend of strong control and knack for inducing grounders. The challenge for Senzatela will lie partly in his ability to reduce the rate at which he allows hard contact. Of the 98 qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, Senzatela’s 90.6 mph average opponents’ exit velocity was sixth-highest. That’s driven in part by a propensity to allow hard contact on the ground; his exit velocity on ground-balls is fourth-highest in MLB, whereas on balls in the air it’s a slightly less-alarming 27th.

Historically speaking, there’s ample precedent for pitchers in Senzatela’s service bracket — more than four years, less than five — signing a deal in this range. Kyle Hendricks’ 2019 extension with the Cubs, a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM, is the most recent and closest parallel.

Notably, Hendricks also largely goes against today’s archetypical strikeout machine. He relies more on weak contact and pinpoint command to offset one of the game’s slowest fastballs, however, whereas Senzatela’s power sinker hovers in the 95 mph range but simply doesn’t miss many bats.

While both pitchers are grounder-heavy command artists, Hendricks had a vastly superior track record that included a prior third-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. He’d already agreed to a $7.405MM salary for the forthcoming 2019 season, and Senzatela would’ve been hard-pressed to earn a second-time arbitration salary in that range. If Hendricks was indeed cited as a point of comparison in negotiations, it’s a strong deal for Senzatela’s camp to have come close to that same guarantee with a demonstrably worse statistical platform.

That said, while the price point may be a bit of a surprise, the Rockies surely place extra value on pitchers who’ve shown the ability — and the desire or willingness — to pitch effectively at Coors Field. Persuading any free-agent starting pitcher to sign on for multiple years pitching at altitude is a difficult endeavor. Beyond that, the Rockies have a fairly weak farm system, so trading for a controllable pitcher is easier said than done. Senzatela has had his share of success in recent seasons and, if he can continue on the same trajectory he showed from 2020-21, the deal will look reasonable enough.

From a payroll vantage point, the Rox can certainly afford the deal as structured. Colorado had just under $47MM in guaranteed salary on the 2022 books, and Senzatela’s salary bumps them to a bit more than $54MM. Charlie Blackmon will tack on another $21MM when he exercises a player option for the 2022 campaign, but even that subsequent $75-76MM is nowhere near the franchise-record $145MM payroll. Colorado is reported to be in agreement on an extension with first baseman C.J. Cron as well, but that shouldn’t drive up the bottom-line payroll in 2022 by too much.

Moreover, by the time Senzatela’s salary jumps to the $12MM range, the Blackmon contract will be off the books. The Rockies didn’t have a single guaranteed salary on the 2024 payroll prior to this long-term deal, though a $16MM club option on top pitcher German Marquez appears likely to be exercised, barring a significant injury or decline. An annual $12MM salary for an innings eater of Senzatela’s nature isn’t an egregious price to pay, although the downside with him is greater than with other arms who’ve signed in this price range — and it’s a bit surprising to see that price tag agreed upon so far in advance.

At the end of the day, the Senzatela extension serves as another reminder that the Rockies don’t view themselves nearly as far from contending as their 74-win season and -57 run differential would suggest. Colorado bucked conventional wisdom at the deadline when opting to hang onto Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Daniel Bard, Cron and other trade candidates, ultimately only moving Mychal Givens despite being buried in the division and lacking long-term control of those players.

Owner Dick Monfort has repeatedly stated in the past that he believes the current Rockies core is capable of contending, although that core will likely be turning over at least to an extent with the expected departure of Story. Competing in a division with the two best teams of 2021, plus a flawed-but-talented Padres squad in win-now mode would appear a daunting task for most teams, but the Rockies operate on an island and, in many ways, prefer their own unorthodox methodologies to more popular industry trends. The group of Marquez, Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Gray (if he’s re-signed) and Austin Gomber certainly could form the nucleus of a competitive pitching staff, but the Rox are thin on depth behind that quintet and will need another year of uncanny health in the rotation just to repeat their 2021 output. Some additional roster augmentation will be needed this offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the agreement and the deal’s terms.

Padres Fire Jayce Tingler

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After days of rumors, the Padres have officially parted ways with manager Jayce Tingler.  The former skipper has been offered the chance to stay with the organization in another role.

“Jayce accomplished a great deal in his two seasons with the Padres, leading our team through an unprecedented pandemic and into the postseason for the first time in 15 years,” president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said.  “I have tremendous respect for him as a coach, colleague and friend.  After much thought and consideration over the last several weeks, we felt change was necessary at this time to ultimately reach our championship potential in San Diego.”

Reports surfaced over the weekend that Tingler was going to be replaced, and while the Padres announced in response that “no decision has been made on Jayce’s employment status at this time,” the writing seemed to be on the wall given the rather stunning nature of the team’s collapse.

At the end of June, the Padres were 49-33 for the season and winners of 11 of their last 12 games.  The question at the time seemed to be which of the three NL West powers (the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants) would capture the division title and which two would be destined for a showdown in the wild card game.  Instead, the Padres cratered to a 30-50 mark over their final 80 games, including a nosedive that saw the club win only seven of their final 28 contests.

The result was a 79-83 record and the Padres’ 10th losing record in 11 seasons — a bitter pill to swallow for a club coming off an NLDS appearance in 2020 and with the highest of expectations.  Despite the star-studded nature of the Padres roster, several of the big names were undone either by injury or a lack of performance, with the starting rotation being particularly hampered by injuries down the stretch.

It was clear the late-season struggle was creating friction within the team, as there were reports of clubhouse discord at Tingler’s decision-making and his ties to Preller.  The Padres’ brutal record in September and October might have well been all the evidence necessary for Preller and ownership to decide that Tingler had lost the team, and now a new manager will be needed to get the Padres on track.

Tingler finishes with a 116-106 record in his two years as San Diego’s manager, still a winning mark thanks to his success in 2020, leading the Friars to the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  The Padres’ 37-23 record was the third-best record of any team during the shortened season, and San Diego’s victory over the Cardinals in the wild card series was their first postseason triumph since the 1998 NLCS.

While a manager is usually the first to go when a team doesn’t succeed, there were enough issues with the 2021 Padres that Tingler was hardly the only one at fault.  The Padres’ next manager will be the third Preller has hired to run the club in his seven-plus years in charge of the front office, and though Preller recently signed a contract extension that runs through the 2026 season, there will certainly a lot of extra pressure on the PBO to finally turn the Padres into a consistent winner.

On the more optimistic side, a case can easily be made that the San Diego job is a prime opportunity for any manager.  There is plenty of talent on the roster, and the Padres could certainly find themselves back in contention with better health alone in 2022.  Both Tingler and previous skipper Andy Green were first-time managers, so it will be interesting to see if Preller again looks for a younger voice in the dugout or if he looks to hire a manager with past experience.

No Traction Between Mets, Theo Epstein On Front Office Position

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As expected, Mets owner Steve Cohen was in contract with Theo Epstein about the team’s president of baseball operations opening, but Epstein won’t be taking over the Mets’ front office.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link), Cohen and Epstein “had a good conversation and both agreed that this was not the right opportunity.”

Epstein has been linked to the Mets on the rumor mill essentially since the moment he stepped down as the Cubs president of baseball ops last November, though Epstein said that he intended to take some time off before getting back into team management.  He instead took a consultant job with the Commissioner’s Office, and it appears as though Epstein will remain in that role for the foreseeable future.  Barring a surprise move in the coming days, the Mets look to be the only team in search of a new front office boss this offseason.

While it made natural sense for Cohen to look into Epstein’s availability, reports suggested that Epstein was seen as something of a longshot of a hire.  Beyond just running a front office, there have been suggestions that Epstein has his eyes on being at least a minority owner of his next team, if his next baseball job is even with a team at all — there have even been rumors that Epstein might look to succeed Rob Manfred as the next commissioner.

With Epstein out of the running, speculation will continue about two other major names reportedly on the Mets’ list, as Cohen is expected to request permission to speak with Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns and A’s executive VP Billy Beane.  Of the two, the “Mets still may have a legit shot at Beane,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, though Beane himself downplayed the speculation.

“I wouldn’t even know that, honestly,” Beane told Shayna Rubin of The San Jose Mercury News and other reporters about the Mets’ plans to request an interview.  “Normally the process is they would call the owner which has happened in the past.  But to worry about this is to lend credibility to it.  It’s all just press reports.”  Of note, Beane also owns a small ownership stake in the Athletics, so that could be another hurdle to a hiring if Beane did have interest in leaving Oakland or if A’s ownership was willing to part ways.

Rockies Extend C.J. Cron

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The Rockies are keeping their first baseman in the fold, announcing an agreement with C.J. Cron on a two-year contract extension. The deal guarantees the Moye Sports Associates client a total of $14.5MM.

It’s the second extension of the day for the Rox, who also just locked up righty Antonio Senzatela on a five-year contract. Unlike Senzatela, who was already under team control for two more seasons via arbitration, Cron was slated to become a free agent after the World Series. The two sides had publicly expressed interest in working out a reunion, however, and it seems they’ll do so before Cron ever hits the open market and hears from other clubs.

The extension will bring Cron some stability after pinballing around the league in recent seasons. The former Angels first-rounder was traded to the Rays in the 2017-18 offseason, claimed off waivers by the Twins in the 2018-19 offseason, signed by the Tigers (after being non-tendered by Minnesota) in the 2019-20 offseason, and signed a minor league with Colorado this past offseason.

That minor league pact proved to be an overwhelming bargain for the Rox, as Cron rebounded from last year’s season-ending knee surgery and raked at a .281/.375/.530 clip with 28 home runs — the second-highest total of his career. That said, there are some red flags to consider as well.

Beyond the fact that Cron will turn 32 in January, he displayed some eye-opening splits. The overwhelming amount of Cron’s damage came at Coors Field, where he batted .326/.412/.661 as opposed to .235/.337/.397 on the road. He was also, as is typically the case, much more productive against left-handed pitching (.311/.393/.583) than against right-handed opponents (.269/.368/.503). The Rockies clearly weren’t concerned by the splits, however, and for a fairly modest price tag of $7.25MM per season, that’s a defensible stance. Cron’s numbers against right-handed opponents, after all, were still strong. And while the home/road splits are glaring, he still managed an above-average on-base percentage on the road while maintaining a respectable isolated power mark.

That increased walk rate, it should be noted, is perhaps the biggest driving factor of this deal. Prior to the 2020 season, Cron had walked in just 5.5% of his career plate appearances. He walked nine times in just 52 plate appearances with Detroit before sustaining a season-ending knee injury, however, and the newfound patience largely carried over into the 2021 season. This year’s 11% walk rate effectively doubled his career mark and served to dramatically boost Cron’s offensive floor in the process. So long as the newfound plate discipline is here to stay, Cron ought to be a convincingly above-average bat over the next two seasons, even if he’s more of an average hitter on the road and a prodigious slugger at home.

Cron, like Senzatela, will be paid $7.25MM in each of the next two seasons. It’s a reasonable price to pay for a solid power bat who rates as an average or better defender at his position. From a bigger-picture standpoint, the Rockies now have about $61MM on next year’s payroll — a figure that’ll jump to about $82MM, assuming Charlie Blackmon exercises a $21MM player option. That’ll leave a pronounced gap between the currently projected payroll and the franchise-record $145MM mark, giving the Rockies some leeway to add to the roster under newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt.

Given the manner in which the open market has increasingly devalued free agents on the wrong side of 30, specifically first-base-only sluggers — there’s a reason Cron was effectively non-tendered twice, after all — one could argue that the Rockies shouldn’t have jumped the market. Taking a more patient approach could well have presented them with a “better” deal on a comparable player, or perhaps even a lower price tag on Cron. At the same time, they’ve now secured some cost certainty and ensured they’ll hang onto the specific person and teammate they clearly were targeting.

The broader issue for the Rockies will be one of how they supplement this roster next year. Extending Senzatela and Cron figure to be well-received moves among the Rockies’ fanbase, but all those moves accomplish for now is taking steps to ensure this same 74-win group can stay together. With Gray and Trevor Story both still ticketed for free agency — and Story widely expected to depart — the Rockies will need to add multiple pieces and/or see several big strides from young players just to get back to this year’s level of play. Actually improving the product and, more improbably, piecing together a contender that can jostle with the two best teams of the 2021 season (Giants and Dodgers) will require substantially more effort from Schmidt and his lieutenants.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rockies and Cron were in active extension discussions. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the two sides were in agreement. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the contract terms.

Devin Williams Fractures Hand, May Return In World Series

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October 5: The Brewers announced Williams underwent successful hand surgery today (as reported by Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt). The star reliever is currently in a splint and will rehab in the Brewers’ Arizona facility. Provided rehab goes as expected and the Brewers advance past their NL competition it’s possible Williams will be an option for the team during the World Series.

September 29: Brewers reliever Devin Williams is going on the 10-day injured list with a right hand fracture, the team informed reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and Will Sammon of the Athletic). The injury is expected to require surgery and is likely to end his season, although Milwaukee isn’t completely ruling out the possibility he could return for the World Series if the club were to win the National League pennant.

It’s an incredible blow to the Brewers’ postseason plans, as few relievers in baseball have been better than Williams over the last two years. The right-hander broke into the majors late in 2019, but he logged few enough innings to retain rookie eligibility in 2020. Last season, Williams absurdly allowed just one earned run (four runs total) over 27 innings while striking out a laughable 53% of opposing hitters. That showing earned him the National League’s Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year awards.

It’d have never been reasonable to expect Williams to continue to dominate at quite that level again, but he’s posted another phenomenal season for the Brew Crew. Over 54 innings, he’s worked to a 2.50 ERA with a 38.5% strikeout rate that checks in seventh among the 249 relievers with 30+ frames. Williams had been expected to pair with Josh Hader to log the club’s highest-leverage postseason innings, but they’ll now have to navigate the playoff field (at least the first couple series) without one of their top bullpen weapons.

That’d be a crushing enough blow on its own, and the manner in which Williams got hurt only adds to the shock. He told reporters he suffered the injury after punching a wall on Sunday (video via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He learned about its severity when he was unable to warm up before last night’s game. Williams’ dejection and disappointment in himself is obvious in that clip, and his potential season-ending absence was certainly similarly deflating news for the rest of the clubhouse.

The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central title, where they’ll meet up with the NL East winner (the Braves, in all likelihood) in the first round. In addition to Hader, manager Craig Counsell will have Hunter Strickland, Jake Cousins and Brent Suter as key end-of-game options. It’s also likely a productive member or two of the Brewers’ vaunted starting rotation (Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson and/or Eric Lauer) will work out of the pen as Milwaukee shortens the rotation to maximize the number of innings logged by Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. It’s still a very strong group of arms, but there’s no sugarcoating that losing Williams deals a significant blow that’ll force most of the rest of the staff up a peg in the pecking order.

To replace Williams on the active roster, Milwaukee selected veteran righty Colin Rea from Triple-A Nashville, designating utilityman Tim Lopes to clear a 40-man roster spot. Rea signed a minors deal last month and has performed well over seven starts. Through 35 2/3 frames with the Sounds, the 31-year-old has a 2.27 ERA with a solid 24.6% strikeout percentage and a minuscule 2.8% walk rate.

That earns Rea his first big league look of the season. The former Padres and Marlins hurler didn’t appear in the majors at all from 2017-19, but he made it back for a brief look with the Cubs last season. He tossed fourteen innings of nine-run ball with Chicago, striking out ten while issuing just a pair of walks.

Rea was in the organization by August 31, so he would be eligible for the Brewers’ postseason roster. Players in the system but not on the 40-man roster at the start of September can still be added to the playoff roster via petition to the Commissioner’s Office for teams with players unavailable due to injury. Considering Rea is coming up as a direct replacement for Williams, the Brewers should have no problem getting him onto the postseason roster if they’re impressed enough with his current form to want to do so.

Yankees Designate Andrew Heaney, Brody Koerner For Assignment

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The Yankees announced Tuesday that they’ve designated left-hander Andrew Heaney and right-hander Brody Koerner for assignment. The moves clear a pair of spots on the 40-man roster for outfielder Greg Allen and catcher Rob Brantly, whose contracts have been selected from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Heaney, 30, was a deadline pickup for the Yankees whom the team hoped to turn around after a rough start to the season in Anaheim. New York sent minor league righties Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero to the Halos in return for the final couple months of control over Heaney, a free agent at season’s end, but the move didn’t pan out as hoped.

Heaney, long a solid starter with a penchant for missing bats, saw this year’s alarming home run troubles skyrocket following his trade to the Bronx. The Yankees eventually moved him from the rotation to the ’pen, and it was clear he wasn’t a part of the team’s postseason plans when the team optioned him late in the season (a move that required the veteran’s consent).

In 35 2/3 innings with the Yankees, Heaney limped to a 7.32 ERA — due largely to an untenable 13 home runs allowed during that stretch. His 2021 season will come to a close with 129 2/3 frames of 5.83 ERA ball. To his credit, Heaney was markedly better than league-average in terms of strikeout rate (26.9%), walk rate (7.3%), swinging-strike rate (12.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (35.7%). Fielding-independent metrics like xERA (4.01), xFIP (4.12) and SIERA (3.84) all felt he pitched better than that ERA would suggest, but Heaney’s sky-high 2.01 HR/9 mark and 18.1% homer-to-flyball ratio torpedoed his earned run average. Given his mounting troubles keeping the ball in the yard, it’s not a surprise that the Yankees are electing to remove him from the postseason equation — particularly in advance of a sudden-death Wild Card showdown with the Red Sox.

Koerner, 27, had his contract selected for the final day of the season but was not used in a pivotal Game 162 matchup for the Yankees. He made a pair of appearances earlier in the season, allowing a run on two hits and two walks with one strikeout in a combined three innings of relief.

A former 17th-round pick (2015) who’s spent his entire career to date in the Yankees organization, Koerner pitched to a 3.39 ERA with a below-average 19.1% strikeout rate but better-than-average marks in terms of walk rate (7.1%) and ground-ball rate (45.8%) in 77 Triple-A frames this season. He’ll have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent if he goes unclaimed on waivers in the coming days.

The selection of Allen and Brantly from Triple-A gives the Yankees a pair of options on the bench for tonight’s Wild Card game. Allen provides manager Aaron Boone with a late pinch-running option and/or defensive replacement, while Brantly provides some insurance as an in-case-of-emergency third catcher.

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