White Sox, A’s “Hit Snag” In Brett Lawrie Trade Talks
5:23pm: The ChiSox and A’s have “hit a snag” in trade talks surrounding Lawrie, reports Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area. While a deal could eventually be worked out, the team wasn’t able to agree on the prospect package that would return to Oakland.
WEDNESDAY, 10:18am: It seems that the White Sox aren’t yet ready to strike an agreement, Slusser tweets, but she adds that the sides are still working.
1:26am: The trade appears to be near to completion, and the Athletics seem likely to receive two minor leaguers, although the two teams have not yet agreed on which ones, Slusser writes.
TUESDAY: The White Sox and Athletics are having serious trade discussions focusing on infielder Brett Lawrie, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Slusser recently reported that Lawrie was likely to be traded following Oakland’s acquisition of Jed Lowrie from Houston, and the White Sox have needs at both second base and third base — each positions at which Lawrie has experience.
Lawrie, 26 in January, batted .260/.299/.407 with 16 homers and five steals in a career-high 602 plate appearances/149 games for the A’s last season after coming over from the Blue Jays in the Josh Donaldson blockbuster. He’d most likely give the White Sox a much-needed everyday option at third base, where the upper levels of the minor leagues are thin after former top prospect Matt Davidson endured a dismal campaign for the second consecutive season (.203/.293/.375).
Chicago would be dealing for two years of Lawrie, who projects to make $3.9MM next year (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) in his second trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. From a defensive standpoint, Lawrie graded out excellently at third base early in his career but has seen metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating sour on his skills over the past three seasons. Then again, he’s also dealt with myriad injuries, missing significant time with a pair of oblique injuries, two broken fingers and an ankle sprain, among other, more minor maladies.
If completed, this would mark the second straight season in which A’s president Billy Beane and White Sox GM Rick Hahn have brokered a notable trade at the Winter Meetings, as the Jeff Samardzija trade that sent Marcus Semien and three others to Oakland was completed one year ago at this time.
Athletics To Sign John Axford
The Athletics have struck a deal with free agent reliever John Axford, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. He’ll join Oakland so long as he passes a physical, says Slusser, who had reported that the deal was close last night.
Oakland will promise Axford $10MM over two years, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. The veteran righty will also receive an incentive package of up to $4MM based on games finished.
Axford was cut loose by the Rockies, who decided his projected $6.5MM arbitration salary was too rich. But the soon-to-be 33-year-old veteran had a strong year overall in Colorado, in spite of an unexciting 4.20 ERA.
That earned run mark was obviously inflated by pitching at Coors Field, and advanced metrics viewed Axford as a solid contributor over his 55 2/3 innings. He posted a 3.57 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA after compiling 10.0 K/9 against 5.2 BB/9 and a career-best 56.1% groundball rate.
As those numbers would suggest, Axford still has rather pronounced struggles limiting the free passes. But he has managed to be effective in spite of that. And he has retained his huge fastball as he’s aged, checking in with a 95.9 mph average heater last year.
For the A’s, Axford represents one of several recent bullpen additions as the organization’s relief corps makeover continues. Oakland has already signed Ryan Madson, dealt for Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski, and shipped away Evan Scribner.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Starting Pitching Notes: Maeda, Angels, A’s
The Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda, a source tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. While Maeda at one point looked like a possibly intriguing target for Boston, the team has plenty of mid-rotation options beyond ace David Price and probably won’t seek to add another, Bradford writes. Earlier Tuesday night, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR’s Zach Links that his team is having internal discussions about Maeda, though John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle hears that a match between the two sides is “unlikely.” Here are more notes on the starting pitching market.
- The Athletics are hunting for a “No. 2” type of pitcher, Joe Stiglich of Comcast SportsNet California tweets. Manager Bob Melvin says the team is looking at veterans to fill that role. The A’s have recently been connected to free agent and former Athletic Scott Kazmir, who would certainly fill the bill as a veteran No. 2 starter.
- The Angels are willing to trade not only C.J. Wilson (as was reported Monday), but also Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets. Of the three, Santiago has attracted the most attention, Sullivan’s colleague Alden Gonzalez tweets. Teams want the Angels to eat at least $15MM of the remaining $20MM on Wilson’s contract, which Gonzalez suggests is “too much.” Santiago, though, is effective as well as relatively young and cheap — MLBTR projects he’ll make $5.1MM next season, a very reasonable sum for a pitcher who threw 180 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA in 2015. One might think Shoemaker would also be an attractive target — his ERA last season was a run higher than Santiago’s, but his peripherals (7.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) were solid, and he’ll be making the league minimum again next season.
Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.
Athletics Pursuing John Axford
The A’s are “moving in on” free agent righty John Axford, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The Athletics’ signing of Axford would be yet another move to change the composition of their frequently frustrating 2015 bullpen, following their recent agreement to sign Ryan Madson to a three-year deal, recent trades for Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski, and tonight’s deal of Evan Scribner to Seattle.
Axford elected free agency after the Rockies outrighted him last month. He had been projected to make $6.5MM through the arbitration process. Axford spent the 2015 season closing in Colorado, posting a 4.20 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in 55 2/3 innings while recording 25 saves. The 32-year-old Axford’s control troubles have caused him to bounce from team to team in recent years, but his mid- to upper-90s fastball remains formidable, and he has a long and reasonably successful history pitching in the ninth inning (although he likely wouldn’t supplant Sean Doolittle as Oakland’s closer).
Mariners Acquire Evan Scribner From A’s
10:05pm: The Mariners have announced the trade.
10:00pm: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Mariners will send minor league right-hander Trey Cochran-Gill to the Athletics to complete the trade. Seattle selected Gill out of Auburn University in the 17th round of the 2014 draft, and the 23-year-old reached Triple-A this past season. Collectively, Cochran-Gill logged a 4.18 ERA with 6.1 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 in 75 1/3 innings (almost exclusively out of the bullpen). Gill dominated at Class-A Advanced but struggled in his exposure to Double-A and Triple-A hitting. He was a fair bit younger than the average age of his competition at each level, though.
6:20pm: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Scribner to the Mariners “sounds as if” it “is indeed happening.”
5:55pm: The Mariners “appear close” to a trade that would send Athletics right-hander Evan Scribner to Seattle, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (Twitter link).
Scribner, 30, is coming off a season in which he posted a 4.35 ERA in 60 innings with Oakland, though there’s quite a bit to like about him when glancing at numbers beyond ERA. Scribner posted an incredible 64-to-4 K/BB ratio this past season, which, when paired with the numbers he posted in a small sample of work in 2014, gives him 75 strikeouts against just four walks over his past 71 2/3 innings in the Majors.
Scribner’s main problem has been an unusually high homer-to-flyball ratio; nearly one of every four balls put into the air against him has left the yard dating back to 2014. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize around 10 to 11 percent for the average pitcher, and home runs were never much of a problem for Scribner in the minor leagues, where he has a career HR/9 rate of just 0.6 despite spending his Triple-A days in the incredibly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Metrics like xFIP and SIERA peg Scribner’s work over the past two seasons more along the lines of a mid-2.00s ERA.
The Mariners would be acquiring four years of control over Scribner, who is a Super Two player (two years, 142 days of Major League service time) and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a modest $700K salary in 2016.
Pitching Notes: Rangers, Giants, Maeda, Chapman, Stammen, Jays, Pirates, Okajima
It appears the Rangers are at least looking into an impactful pitching addition. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan says (Twitter links) that the club has pursued Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, and Drew Smyly on the trade market, but “couldn’t make headway” on any of those players. The club is, however, holding a line of dialogue with the Indians on their rotation arms. Meanwhile, Texas has “neither funds nor interest level” to take a run at Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter.
Here’s more on the pitching market:
- The Giants have some interest in Maeda, skipper Bruce Bochy told reporters including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). And the team has scouted him previously in Japan, colleague Henry Schulman adds on Twitter. Of course, Bochy also added that the club expects Maeda to draw wide interest, and didn’t make clear just how strong of a draw he represents.
- With uncertainty abounding, the Dodgers are holding internal discussions on what to do about the team’s prospective trade for Reds lefty Aroldis Chapman, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports via Twitter. It’s possible that the club could “pivot” to some other acquisition targets or that it might allow the situation to play out before committing in either direction, he adds.
- Recently non-tendered righty Craig Stammen is “100% recovered” from his arm surgery, a source tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (via) Twitter. Stammen, a stalwart of the Nationals pen for several years, was non-tendered recently. He’ll be entering his age-32 season after producing a 2.88 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 246 2/3 innings over 2012-15.
- The Blue Jays are considering an array of options as they look at pen additions, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets. Toronto is considering everything from the best remaining free agent relievers to “bounce-back types,” he says.
- While a lefty reliever isn’t the Pirates‘ top priority, the team has reached to free agent Matt Thornton, Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter.
- The Pirates have shown interest in free agenty righty Kyle Kendrick, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (via Twitter). Kendrick struggled last year for the Rockies, but he’s still just 31 years old and has had success at times in a swingman capacity. Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review broke down the Bucs’ efforts to find starters in a piece yesterday.
- Japanese reliever Hideki Okajima is eyeing a return to the majors for his age-40 campaign, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. The long-time Red Sox southpaw last appeared in the bigs in 2013 with the Athletics and has played in Japan for the last two years.
Bay Area Notes: Giants, A’s, Zobrist, Petit, Gray
Here’s the latest from both Bay Area teams…
- The Giants appear to be one of three finalists for Ben Zobrist‘s services but they may be at a disadvantage on two fronts, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes. The Mets and Nationals are located closer to Zobrist’s home in Tennessee, and they have openings at Zobrist’s preferred position of second base. With Joe Panik already locked into the keystone, the Giants were looking at Zobrist as a left fielder.
- Also from Baggarly’s piece, he notes that while the Giants were indeed interested in Joakim Soria, they were far from a “finalist” for his services. The bullpen is not an area of major concern for San Francisco and they were simply doing due diligence on Soria due to good evaluations. Soria ended up agreeing to a deal with the Royals yesterday.
- Giants GM Bobby Evans told reporters (including Baggarly) that the team wasn’t ruling out bringing Yusmeiro Petit or Hector Sanchez back after the two were non-tendered last week. Petit’s non-tender was a bit of a surprise given his very solid work in three seasons as a swingman with the Giants, but Evans explained that “there could be a scenario where we sign a second starter and that could move Chris Heston into a long man role. We don’t know that yet. So to tender Yusmeiro at that point would have been predetermining who our long man is and we weren’t quite ready to do that.”
- The Athletics need to move fast if they intend to sign Sonny Gray to an extension, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. This winter may be the last chance the A’s have to lock Gray up beyond their remaining four years of control while his price tag is still manageable. That said, “manageable” will still be a huge commitment for the low-payroll Athletics, though trading him or letting him walk in free agency would also come at a cost to the team’s hopes to contend. Extending Gray is “the most important thing they could possibly do if they’re in it to win it,” an AL scout tells Slusser. “If you’re building for the long run, that’s what they have to do. You’ve got to try to develop and keep top-end starters, and if you can’t develop it, you have to hit a home run in a trade. At his age? Yeah, you need to sign Sonny Gray through at least two years of free agency, maybe even three.” Oakland management has reiterated several times over that it has no plans to trade Gray, despite interest from several teams.
- From Gray’s perspective, he tells Slusser that he “wouldn’t mind staying in Oakland a long time….I’ve talked about it with my agent, and I’d definitely be comfortable staying there. And if I don’t, there’s nothing wrong with that, either. If I get to the point where I’m in that position, it’s kind of a win-win situation.”
- The A’s didn’t have much interest in Trevor Cahill before he signed with the Cubs, CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich reports.
Astros Meet With Scott Kazmir
Free agent lefty Scott Kazmir met today with the Astros to explore the possibility of a return to Houston, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports.
While Drellich notes that there’s a “comfortable fit” between the sides, Houston is hardly the only club showing interest. Per the report, eight to ten teams have “continued interest” in the veteran.
Indeed, we’ve also heard recently that Kazmir would meet with the Pirates in Nashville. And both the Royals and Athletics have also been connected with him in recent days.
Much as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma drew strong early interest in part because they were available on shorter-term deals, there’s reason to believe that Kazmir could be had for a lighter commitment than his recent production might otherwise suggest.
True, there’s plenty to like about Kazmir’s output over the past two seasons. All told, he’s thrown 373 1/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. And he’s maintained his average fastball velocity at about 91.5 mph.
But long-term questions remain about Kazmir’s elbow, and then there’s the fact that he struggled to a 6.52 ERA over the months of September and October. More notable, perhaps, are the declining metrics he put up last year: a 3.98 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, and 4.10 SIERA. And Kazmir is about to turn 32.
All told, a robust market isn’t surprising. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Kazmir could land four years and $52MM, which may not be quite the bargain rate that suitors will hope to achieve. As Dierkes notes, the lack of draft compensation is another notable element that supports Kazmir’s market.
Latest On Brett Lawrie
9:00pm: While Los Angeles might have reached out previously regarding Lawrie, the team doesn’t seem to have active interest, Slusser tweets.
6:24pm: The Angels are also looking into a deal for Lawrie and have had talks with the A’s, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports.
1:40am: The Indians, Tigers and White Sox all have interest in A’s infielder Brett Lawrie, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Trade rumors have swirled around Lawrie and Danny Valencia ever since the A’s acquired Jed Lowrie, with Slusser noting at the time that Lawrie was the more likely of the two to be dealt.
Lawrie, who turns 26 in January, hit .260/.299/.407 with 16 homers over 602 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland and also posted defensive metrics far below his usual standards, adding up to an 0.6 fWAR season. On the plus side, Lawrie is still young, controllable through the 2017 season (MLBTR projects him for a $3.9MM salary in his second time through the arbitration process), able to play second or third, and he’s not too far removed from his status as one of the game’s top prospects.
With this in mind, Lawrie could provide an upgrade to the three AL Central teams, all of which have needs in the infield. Giovanny Urshela provides a great glove but no bat for the Tribe at third base, plus Cleveland could also use more right-handed hitting pop in its lineup. Detroit has a former top prospect of its own at third in Nick Castellanos, though he’s posted sub-replacement fWAR totals in each of his two full MLB seasons and the Tigers may want more production as they look to contend. Lawrie could fit at either second or third for the White Sox as Chicago as needs at both positions.
As Slusser notes, the Yankees are also thought to be a potential trade partner if they look to improve themselves at second base. The keystone has been a problem spot for New York since Robinson Cano left, and the Yankees currently have unproven rookie Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley (who’s played only 10 games at second in the last two seasons) as their top options at the position in 2016.
Athletics To Sign Ryan Madson
MONDAY: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports the breakdown: there’s a $500K signing bonus and Madson will earn $6.5MM in 2016 and $7.5MM a year over 2017-18. The deal also includes incentives up to $1.25MM a year based on games finished.
There’s also a one-time, $250K trade bonus, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
SUNDAY: Reliever Ryan Madson and the Athletics have agreed to terms on a three-year, $22MM deal, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). Madson can also receive up to $1.25MM per year in incentives based on the number of games he finishes. He is an All Bases Covered client.
That the 35-year-old Madson would receive a three-year deal over $20MM would have been unthinkable just a year ago. Madson did not pitch in 2012 through 2014 due to injury, then signed what at the time seemed to be an insignificant minor-league deal with the Royals last January. In 2015, though, he reemerged as something close to the dominant reliever he once was with the Phillies, posting a 2.13 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings in Kansas City. He also threw in the mid-90s, and his ground-ball rate (55.0%) was the highest of his career.
Madson figures to serve in a setup role in Oakland, although he has closing experience and could potentially move into the closer’s role in case Sean Doolittle, who missed much of 2015 with shoulder trouble, gets hurt again. Nonetheless, $22MM is a surprising risk for the Athletics to take with an aging reliever. MLBTR projected Madson would get three years, but at a more modest $15MM; Madson’s $22MM total eclipses that of, for example, former Athletic Luke Gregerson, who got $18.5MM from the Astros last offseason despite being five years younger than Madson is now and having a more robust recent track record. There’s also the question of whether the Athletics will contend in 2016 after winning 68 games last season, and if not, whether spending so heavily on a 35-year-old is the right strategy.
Perhaps, though, Madson’s deal is part of a broader strategy. Madson joins Rich Hill as the second 35-year-old pitcher this winter to have a comeback 2015 season and then agree to a big-league deal with the A’s. Hill had four dominant late-season starts with the Red Sox after pitching sparingly in the Majors in the previous three seasons, and Oakland signed him for $6MM. The Athletics might feel that skepticism about players in situations like Hill’s or Madson’s presents them with opportunities that they might not otherwise have to sign talented pitchers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.