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Blue Jays, Wynton Bernard Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Blue Jays are signing outfielder Wynton Bernard to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 32-year-old will be in big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Bernard has spent over a decade in the professional ranks. Initially a 35th-round pick of the Padres in 2012, the Niagara product landed with the Tigers on a minor league deal a couple seasons later. He’s typically hit well enough in the minors to continue to find opportunities, landing subsequent depth roles with the Giants, Cubs and Rockies. He continued to bide his time in search of an MLB look.

At long last, he earned that desired call late last summer. Bernard had mashed at a .333/.387/.590 clip through 108 games with the Rox’s top affiliate in Albuquerque, connecting on 21 home runs and stealing 30 bases in 35 tries. The Rockies brought him up in mid-August, where he got some limited runtime in the outfield. He appeared in 12 MLB games, hitting .286/.286/.310 over his first 42 trips to the plate. Colorado ran him through outright waivers at the end of the year, sending him back to minor league free agency.

While it was a brief first MLB call, it no doubt served as some vindication for the San Diego native. Bernard’s 2022 showing was aided to some extent by the Pacific Coast League’s extremely hitter-friendly environment, but he’s typically performed at an above-average level throughout his time in the minors. He’s a career .289/.350/.424 minor league hitter, sporting a .273/.328/.435 mark through parts of six Triple-A campaigns.

Bernard is an excellent runner who’s capable of covering all three outfield spots. He’ll slot in behind Nathan Lukes — who was added to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason — as a speed/defense depth outfielder. Bernard figures to open the season with Triple-A Buffalo. He still has two option years remaining, so the Jays would be able to shuttle him between Toronto and Buffalo if he claims a 40-man spot at any point.

Looking At The Yankees’ Rotation Depth

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Up until a couple of weeks ago, the Yankees seemed to have an extremely strong group of five starting pitchers. With Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas penciled in, the club had arguably the best rotation in the entire league. Unfortunately, the shoulder issues that plagued Montas last year are still lingering and he is going to miss the first month of the season. They still have an excellent front four but will now have to rely on their depth to start the season. Even if Montas is able to return to health and looks like his old self by May, it’s possible that one of the other four will need a breather and there will be continued opportunities for other pitchers. Teams almost never make it through an entire season using just five or six starters, meaning depth is always important.

Who does the club have on hand that could step up to fill in for Montas or any other injury? Let’s take a look at the options.

Domingo Germán

Germán, 30, is probably the most obvious and straightforward solution. He seemed to establish himself as part of the club’s future rotation in 2019 when he tossed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 38.1% ground ball rate. But in September of that year, he was placed on administrative leave while the league investigated him for domestic violence. He ultimately received an 81-game suspension and flirted with retirement while serving it but ultimately returned.

In 2021, he was able to toss 98 1/3 innings over 18 starts and four relief appearances. He posted a 4.58 ERA while striking out 23.9% of opponents. Last year, shoulder problems sent him to the 60-day injured list in March and he wasn’t reinstated until July. He ultimately made 14 starts and one relief appearance, posting a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to just 19.5% and opponents hit just .262 on balls in play. That latter number is well below league average but not far off from his career mark of .272. It’s possible that he just has a knack for limiting damage but Statcast data doesn’t support that. He was in the 26th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate and 25th in average exit velocity, though he was in the 57th for barrel rate. It’s possible that he would struggle to maintain an ERA under 4.00 but he avoids walks and would still be much better than the fifth/sixth starter on most teams.

Clarke Schmidt

Schmidt, 27 next month, was a first round pick of the Yanks in 2017. He pitched well as he moved up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league by Baseball America in 2020 and 2021. He’s had some brief time in the majors but his overall workload hasn’t been huge over the past couple of years. With the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020, he was limited to just 6 1/3 innings of official action in the majors. In 2021, an elbow strain kept him out of action for a while and he was only able to log another 6 1/3 in the bigs along with 38 minor league innings. Last year, he was frequently optioned and recalled, throwing 57 2/3 frames in the majors along with 33 in Triple-A, combining for 90 2/3 on the season.

When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s produced pretty solid results. His 70 1/3 innings at the MLB level have resulted in a 3.71 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate. His minor league work has been even better, as he’s posted a 2.71 ERA over 71 innings in the past two years. He struck out out 31% of batters faced and walked 7.1% of them while getting ground balls on about half of balls in play. There are some things to like here but he still has an option whereas Germán doesn’t. Given that fact and his workload concerns, he might get nudged to Triple-A until a need arises.

Deivi García

García, 24 in May, flashed some potential in 2020 when he made six starts with a 4.98 ERA. That number might not jump out, but he was only 21 years old at the time, perhaps pointing to an enticing future with continued development. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to fruition. In the two subsequent years, he’s only made a couple of big league starts while registering a 6.87 ERA in 154 2/3 minor league innings. He’s still young but he’s now out of options. Given his poor results in recent years, he could be given a long relief role in the bullpen or else designated for assignment.

Luis Gil

Gil, 25 in June, has a 3.78 ERA through his first seven MLB starts but he’s not going to be available for a while. He underwent Tommy John in May of last year and won’t be a realistic candidate until midseason at the earliest. Like García, he’s now out of options and will need to either crack the active roster or else be designated for assignment. He’ll be able to pitch in the minors as part of a rehab assignment once healthy, but it will be decision time once the 30-day rehab period is up.

Randy Vasquez

Vazquez, 24, has spent his entire career with the Yanks thus far, signing with them as an international free agent in 2018. He’s since moved his way up and spent all of last year in Double-A. He made 25 starts at that level, tossing 115 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. He struck out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 8.3% and getting grounders at a 48.3% clip. He was added to the club’s roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s currently considered the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America but has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level.

Matt Krook

Krook, 28, is a left-hander that was drafted by the Giants but went to the Rays in the Evan Longoria deal. The Yankees grabbed him in the minor league portion of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. He’s since posted some solid results in the upper minors, though the control hasn’t been pinpoint. He spent last year at Triple-A, making 22 starts and seven relief appearances with a 4.09 ERA over 138 2/3 innings. He walked 12.1% of batters faced but struck out 25.7% and got grounders at a 55.7% clip. That was enough for the Yanks to add him to the roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.

Jhony Brito

Brito, 25 next month, has spent his entire career in the Yankees’ organization, having been signed by them as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 112 2/3 innings over 23 starts and three relief appearances. He only struck out 20% of batters faced but kept his walks down to a 7.7% level and got grounders on about half the balls he allowed into play. Like Krook, he was added to the club’s 40-man at the end of the season to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.

Yoendrys Gomez

Gomez, 23, was an international signee out of Venezuela, agreeing with the Yankees in 2016. He earned his way onto prospect lists over the next few years and got a spot on the 40-man in November of 2020 to protect him from Rule 5 selection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited him over the past couple of seasons. In 2021, he dealt with a shoulder issue and contracted COVID-19, ultimately only making nine starts on the year at Class-A. In 2022, he spent time at various levels and finished the year at Double-A, but was only able to log 47 innings on the year. The results were good, as he posted a 2.49 ERA while striking out 25.7% of batters faced, but it will be hard for him to carry a huge workload after pitching very little in recent years.

Clayton Beeter/Sean Boyle/Mitch Spence/Tanner Tully

None of this group are currently on the 40-man roster, meaning they will face longer odds of contributing this year, though they could always force the club into making room. Beeter is arguably the most exciting of the bunch. Selected 66th overall by the Dodgers in 2020, he was ranked that club’s #12 prospect by Baseball America going into 2022. That was after a 2021 season that saw him post a 3.44 ERA between High-A and Double-A while striking out 36.6% of batters faced. In 2022, his ERA jumped to 5.75 as he walked 14.3% of batters faced, but he was then flipped to the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade. After the deal, he got his walks down to 10.6% and his ERA to 2.13. He struck out an incredible 37.1% of batters faced on the year between the two teams but only threw 77 innings.

External Addition

If the Yankees feel these depth options aren’t enough, they could always look outside the organization for help. The free agent market still features guys like Michael Wacha, Dylan Bundy and Zack Greinke. In terms of trades, it’s possible the Mariners might be willing to move Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Brewers are suddenly loaded in rotation options and could theoretically do without Adrian Houser. However, all of those paths come with a complication for the Yankees, who are reportedly leery about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.

Red Sox, Matt Dermody Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are signing left-hander Matt Dermody to a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll get a crack in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Dermody, 32, has pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns. He got the briefest of looks last season, making one appearance for the Cubs in August. He’d also had a lone outing for Chicago back in 2020, with his only extended work 22 1/3 frames for the 2017 Blue Jays. The Iowa native has a 5.60 ERA over 27 1/3 big league innings.

A reliever for the majority of his career, Dermody picked up 13 starts in 20 outings for the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa last season. He threw 79 1/3 innings with a 3.74 ERA in a hitter-friendly league. His 20.3% strikeout percentage was modest, but Dermody picked up grounders on a bit more than half the balls in play. He also showed excellent control, only handing out free passes to 5.2% of batters faced.

Late in the 2022 campaign, Dermody landed with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. He made eight starts there but got hit to a 4.54 ERA over 39 2/3 frames. He struck out 20.7% of batters faced against a 7.3% walk rate. After a brief sojourn to South Korea, he’ll return to the affiliated ranks and look to pitch his way back to the big leagues in Boston.

Dermody can offer the Sox some depth for both the rotation or bullpen. He’s more likely to eventually crack the MLB roster in a relief capacity. The Sox watched Matt Strahm depart in free agency and have dealt away Darwinzon Hernández and Josh Taylor this offseason.

Joely Rodríguez is the only lock for left-handed relief work to start the season. Prospects Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are each on the 40-man roster and have topped out at Triple-A Worcester. They’ve both worked as starters in the minors but could theoretically break into the big leagues as relief options. The Sox also added Ryan Sherriff as a non-roster Spring Training invitee over the weekend.

Bruce Sherman: Sale Of Marlins Not Under Consideration

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Marlins owner Bruce Sherman released a statement this afternoon reaffirming his commitment to lasting ownership of the franchise.

“The Miami Marlins are not for sale, have not been for sale under my ownership, and will not be for sale in my lifetime. It is irresponsible to report otherwise,” Sherman said (via Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). “It is and will continue to be a privilege to own this great organization. I look forward to seeing our loyal fans at Opening Day on March 30.”

The announcement comes in response to a column from the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday morning. That report cited MLB sources suggesting the Miami organization could hit the market at some point soon. There’d been no previous indication of the Marlins potentially changing hands, and Sherman’s forceful pushback represents a firm declaration that won’t happen.

Sherman made similar sentiments in an interview with the Herald last September. “No, I have never considered selling the team,” he said at the time. “I am more deeply invested in the team’s success now than ever. I’m looking forward to reaching the playoffs, returning the World Series trophy to South Florida, and making this community proud of its hometown team.”

The Marlins are only a few years removed from an ownership change. Jeffrey Loria officially dealt the franchise to the Sherman/Derek Jeter group in October 2017. While Jeter was the higher-profile member of the group, Sherman has been majority owner for the entire time. Jeter departed the organization last offseason.

Upon taking over, the Sherman ownership group cut player payroll. Miami’s season-opening payroll had been at $115MM during the final year of Loria’s ownership, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Under Sherman’s ownership, the franchise hasn’t topped $100MM in player spending. That’s likely set to change this year, with Roster Resource projecting their spending around $103MM.

Cubs Outright Anthony Kay, Manuel Rodriguez

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The Cubs informed reporters that pitchers Anthony Kay and Manuel Rodríguez have each gone unclaimed on waivers (via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). Both players have been sent outright to Triple-A Iowa. It’s the first outright assignment for both, meaning they’ll each stay in the organization but won’t occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.

Kay’s stay on the Chicago 40-man lasted only a few weeks. The Cubs nabbed the southpaw off waivers from the Blue Jays just before Christmas but designated him for assignment last Friday after signing Trey Mancini. The moves allow them to roll the dice on a former first-round pick without dedicating a roster spot. Kay has pitched briefly at the MLB level with Toronto in each of the last four seasons. He’s only managed a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 career innings, plagued both by an 11.4% walk percentage and a hefty .340 batting average on balls in play against him.

The 27-year-old has shown some swing-and-miss upside amidst his early struggles. He owns a solid 23.5% strikeout percentage during his MLB time, generating whiffs on a reasonable 10.4% of his offerings. Kay has an almost identical 23.6% strikeout rate over parts of four minor league campaigns.

Rodríguez, 26, has spent his entire career with the Cubs but was designated for assignment a week ago after Chicago claimed Julian Merryweather. He nabbed a spot on the 40-man roster over the 2019-20 offseason and reached the MLB level a little over a year thereafter. The righty has pitched out of David Ross’ bullpen in each of the last two seasons. He’s worked 31 1/3 innings across 34 total appearances, posting a 4.88 ERA. That has come with concerning strikeout and walk rates (17.5% and 15%, respectively), but the sinkerballer has generated grounders at a quality 53.2% clip.

Owner of a fastball that sits in the 96-97 MPH range, Rodríguez offers an intriguing power arm the Cubs will retain at the upper levels. The native of Mexico has a 4.51 ERA through 145 2/3 minor league innings. He’s struggled to throw strikes at the lower levels as well, though he’s been far more effective in the minors at missing bats (career 31.4% strikeout percentage).

Given their respective MLB experience, Kay and Rodríguez both look likely to secure non-roster invitations to Spring Training in a few weeks. If they don’t crack the roster out of camp, they’ll each open the year as depth options in Iowa. Both players would qualify for minor league free agency at the end of next season if they’re not added back to the 40-man roster before the end of the year.

White Sox Showing Trade Interest In Nicky Lopez

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The White Sox have expressed interest in acquiring Royals infielder Nicky Lopez, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). There’s no indication discussions have gained traction, as Rosenthal notes that Kansas City isn’t anxious to deal the Creighton product.

Lopez, 28 in March, has spent his entire career with the Royals. He reached the majors in 2019, hitting .240/.276/.325 in 103 games as a rookie. He had a similarly rough offensive showing during his second season but earned elite marks for his second base work. Lopez’s +9 defensive runs saved during the shortened season tied for the league lead at the position, earning him another look in 2021.

The left-handed hitter looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, at least on the surface. He posted a .300/.365/.378 line over 565 trips to the plate, with that offense checking in a hair above league average. That required a lofty .347 batting average on balls in play which he never seemed likely to sustain, and his batted ball metrics weren’t much different than those of his first two seasons. Lopez’s production indeed fell back last season, as he hit .227/.281/.273 without a home run in 480 trips to the plate.

Lopez was one of two hitters (Myles Straw being the other) who tallied 450+ plate appearances without connecting on a home run. He and Straw tied for the game’s second-lowest slugging output, narrowly topping that of Geraldo Perdomo, while ranking in the bottom 10 in hard contact. That lack of power makes him very reliant on turning grounders into singles to drive his offensive profile. That happened in 2021, but his overall .252/.309/.321 career line checks in 27 percentage points below league average as measured by wRC+.

The White Sox, of course, are eying Lopez for other reasons. While he has only slightly above-average pure speed, he’s an instinctive baserunner who has successfully stolen 36 bags in 40 attempts over the past two seasons. That skillset could take on a bit more value in 2023, as the league is introducing limits on the number of pickoff attempts/step-offs a pitcher can deploy in an at-bat.

More importantly, Lopez has shown the potential for excellent infield defense. DRS bizarrely graded him as eight runs below average at second base in 2022, but that’s an anomaly compared to his strong career marks. Statcast estimated him as three runs above average at the keystone and 5 runs above par through 406 innings of shortstop work last season. Both metrics pegged him as a quality defender at each middle infield spot in previous years.

Chicago obviously views Lopez as a potential target for their uncertain second base mix. Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada will cover the left side of the infield. Second base is far less settled. Romy González and Lenyn Sosa look the present favorites for reps, with veteran utilityman Leury García also in the mix. Lopez doesn’t bring a ton of offensive upside but would raise the floor with his glove and baserunning.

The Royals have a somewhat questionable second base mix of their own, though, apparently lessening their desire to part with Lopez. Michael Massey is the top option after hitting .243/.307/.376 over 52 games as a rookie. That was a fine but hardly overwhelming debut showing, leaving the possibility that K.C. pivots back to Lopez if Massey scuffles. The Royals already thinned out their overall infield depth this morning by dealing Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox.

Lopez and the Royals agreed to a $3.7MM salary to avoid arbitration earlier this offseason. He’s under club control for three years, including the upcoming campaign.

Jeff Kent Falls Off Hall Of Fame Ballot

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Former second baseman Jeff Kent has been up for Hall of Fame consideration for a decade, with this year marking his last crack at induction via the Baseball Writers Association of America. Kent received 46.5% of the the vote during this cycle, well shy of the 75% needed for induction. He falls off the ballot and will no longer be considered by the BBWAA.

Kent hovered in the 25-50% vote share range for his final four seasons. He never seemed in danger of falling below the 5% threshold that cuts players from the ballot early but also didn’t get the kind of late momentum needed to vault him within striking range of induction. If he’s to be enshrined in Cooperstown, that’ll now have to come via the Era Committee. The Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee met this winter — enshrining Fred McGriff in the process — meaning the earliest Kent will be under consideration again is the 2025-26 offseason.

A right-handed hitter, Kent was one of the game’s better power bats over his 17-year MLB career. He played just under 2300 games for six different clubs, with his best seasons coming as a member of the Giants. Kent hit .297/.368/.535 during a six-year stretch in San Francisco spanning 1997-2002. He received MVP votes in five of those campaigns and won the award in 2000 thanks to a massive .334/.424/.596 showing with 33 longballs.

Kent finished his career with a .290/.356/.500 line in more than 9500 plate appearances. His 377 career homers are the most by any primary second baseman, while he collected 2461 hits, drove in 1518 runs and scored 1320 times. He was a five-time All-Star and secured four Silver Slugger awards while winning the aforementioned MVP. Strong as his offensive contributions were, Kent faced plenty of questions about his glove at the keystone. Those defensive concerns dissuaded enough voters to keep him from induction.

While Kent was the only player to “age” off the ballot this year, a number of first-time candidates unsurprisingly dropped out after not reaching the 5% threshold to last another season. Bronson Arroyo, R.A. Dickey, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Huston Street, Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Jered Weaver and Jayson Werth each fall out of future consideration.

Among first-time candidates, just two topped the 5% mark to remain on the ballot for at least another year. Carlos Beltrán debuted at 46.5% and would seem to have a solid chance at induction at some point down the line. Francisco Rodríguez has a more uphill battle after starting off at 10.8% of the vote.

Red Sox Designate Matt Barnes For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced that they have designated right-hander Matt Barnes for assignment. His roster spot will go to outfielder Adam Duvall, whose signing is now official.

Barnes, 33 in June, has spent his entire career with the Red Sox thus far. They selected him back in 2011, using the 19th overall pick to grab him. He transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen while in the minors and eventually established himself as a solid reliever in the Boston bullpen. From 2016 through 2020, he made 288 appearances with a 3.88 ERA. His 11.6% walk rate was certainly on the high side but he also struck out 31.9% of opponents and got grounders at a 48.1% clip.

In the first half of 2021, he seemed to take his game to a new level. Through July 10, he had already tossed 37 innings on the year with a 2.68 ERA, striking out an incredible 44.6% of opponents while walking just 7.2%. He also took over as the club’s closer, racking up 19 saves by that point in the season already, despite only having 15 in his career prior to that season. He was slated to hit the open market at the end of that year but the Sox decided they wanted to lock him up and agreed to a two-year, $18.75MM extension with a club option for 2024.

Unfortunately, things have gone downhill for Barnes since the ink dried on that deal. He posted a 6.11 ERA in the rest of the 2021 campaign and was initially left off the club’s postseason roster, though he later re-joined the club as an injury replacement. In 2022, he struggled badly out of the gate, posting a 7.94 ERA through the end of May, when he landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He came back in August and posted a 1.59 ERA from then out, but that still left his season-long ERA at 4.31. Despite that strong finish, he has evidently been pushed off the roster in Boston, a remarkable turnaround for a guy who looked like one of the best relievers in baseball a year and a half ago.

The Sox will now have a week to trade Barnes or pass him through waivers. He will be making a $7.5MM salary this year and has a $2.25MM buyout on the $8MM club option for next year. Unless the Sox can find a trade partner, they will be on the hook for the $9.75MM still owed to Barnes. If he were to clear waivers, he has more than five years of MLB service time, meaning he can reject an outright assignment and become a free agent while retaining all of that money. Should he become a free agent and sign elsewhere, another club would only have to pay him the protated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the Sox pay.

iTalk Studios reported that Barnes would be designated for assignment before the official announcement.

Scott Rolen Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that third baseman Scott Rolen has been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is the only player inducted by the BBWAA in this year’s election cycle. He will be inducted alongside first baseman Fred McGriff, who was previously elected by the Era Committee.

Rolen received 76.3% of the vote, just above the 75% required for induction. A few players just under that line were Todd Helton at 72.2%, Billy Wagner at 68.1% and Andruw Jones at 58.1%. Here are the full results, per the BBWAA.

A native of Indiana, Rolen was selected by the Phillies in the second round of the 1993 draft. He made his way up to the majors and debuted in 1996 when he was just 21 years old. He hit at a below-average rate in that 37-game debut but he truly broke out the next year. In 1997, he hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases en route to a batting line of .283/.377/.469. That production was 21% better than the league average hitter that year, as evidenced by his 121 wRC+. He was crowned the National League Rookie of the Year for that campaign.

Rolen would go on to contribute in similar fashion for the Phillies over the next few seasons. He hit between 25 and 34 homers in each season from 1998 to 2004 while also swiping at least eight bases in all but the last season of that stretch. His excellent third base defense started to be recognized during this period as well, as he won a Gold Glove award in 1998. That was the first of eight such awards he would eventually win.

That period included a trade to the Cardinals in 2002, a team for whom he would have some of his best seasons. The standout season of his career was 2004, where Rolen went deep 34 times and produced a batting line of .314/.409/.598. His wRC+ was 159 and his stellar defense led to him racking up 9.0 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations at FanGraphs. Only Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were able to best him in terms of fWAR that year. Bonds took home the National League Most Valuable Player award that year with Rolen in fourth place in the voting, also trailing Beltre and Albert Pujols.

In 2005, he played just 56 games before injuring his shoulder and eventually requiring season-ending surgery. He got back on track in 2006 with another strong season, hitting 22 home runs and producing at an above-average level. The Cards won the National League Central division and eventually went on to win the World Series over the Tigers. Rolen played one more season in St. Louis but was traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2008 season. He spent a season and a half in Toronto before getting dealt to the Reds, where he played out the remainder of his career. Over 17 MLB seasons, he hit 316 home runs, scored 1,211 runs, drove in 1,287, and stole 118 bases. He made seven All-Star teams, won eight Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year award and a World Series.

In 2018, he appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. He garnered 10.2% of the vote, well below the 75% threshold for admittance but well above the 5% minimum required to stay on the ballot. His vote share grew to 17.2%, 35.3%, 52.9% and 63.2% in the subsequent years, finally getting over the hump here in 2023. MLBTR congratulates him on his induction.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall

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The Red Sox announced agreement Tuesday with Adam Duvall on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee that could max out at $10MM via incentives. The CAA Sports client will receive a $1MM signing bonus and a $6MM salary. He’d lock in an extra $500K for reaching 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances and would tack on $1MM if he hits the 550-PA mark.

Duvall, 34, started his MLB career with the Giants in 2014 and has since bounced around the NL, playing for the Reds, Braves, and Marlins. The highlights of his career thus far were the 2016 season, when he earned an All-Star selection with the Reds, slashing .241/.297/.498 (104 wRC+) with 33 homers in 150 games, and the 2021 season, where he earned a Gold Glove award, slashed .226/.287/.513 (107 wRC+) down the stretch for the Braves following a midseason trade from the Marlins, and won the World Series with Atlanta. On the season, Duvall led the NL in RBI with 113 while swatting 38 home runs.

Duvall returned to Atlanta for the 2022 season, but his age-33 campaign wasn’t nearly as productive as that 2021 season. A left wrist strain — more specifically, a torn tendon sheath that required surgery — quite likely impacted Duvall’s overall performance, but the regression was still pronounced. Coming into the 2022 season, Duvall had a career .241 ISO (slugging minus batting average). The .263 ISO he turned in during his 38-homer performance in 2021 ranked him 14th among all qualified batters. That power wilted considerably, however, with Duvall’s ISO shrinking to .188 — ranking 74th among players with at least 300 plate appearances. The resulting .213/.276/.401 slash was 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

The 2022 season saw Duvall’s average exit velocity dip from 89.8 mph to 88.3 mph, while his rate of barreled balls and hard-hit balls each dropped by more than three percentage points. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate jumped from a career-worst 31.4% in 2021 to an even higher 32.1% in 2022.

It’s impossible to say exactly how much that was due to his injured wrist and how much might be due to a general decline in skill. For a low-OBP slugger like Duvall, the loss in power is certainly concerning regarding his ability to play as an average or better bat on an everyday basis. That being said, Duvall still showed huge power against lefties in 2022 (.233/.282/.562, 129 wRC+) while posting a strong +5 OAA in just half a season split mainly between left and center field, showing he does still have value even if his power doesn’t return to its pre-2022 form.

With offseason acquisition Masataka Yoshida manning left and Alex Verdugo set to play right field, Duvall seems ticketed for time in center field — although he’d notably be a fine right-handed complement to either Yoshida or Verdugo, who each bat left-handed. Cotillo reported yesterday that the Red Sox believe Duvall to be capable of playing center field at age 34, despite the fact that he has just 593 Major League innings at the position.

Whether Duvall will play center on an everyday basis or be in more of a timeshare depends on the development of young Jarren Duran, whose meager .221/.283/.363 (78 wRC+) slash line in 2022 was held down by a massive platoon split; Duran slashed just .184/.238/.211 against lefties for Boston, translating to a virtually unplayable 22 wRC+. Against righties, however, he batted a more palatable .229/.293/.398 (91 wRC+). Duvall and Duran manning center would allow Enrique Hernandez to play the infield, helping to cover for the loss of Xander Bogaerts in free agency and Trevor Story to injury.

Even after an offseason that saw Boston extend Rafael Devers for $313.5MM and add Yoshida on a five-year, $90MM deal along with smaller pacts with Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Chris Martin, Chaim Bloom’s front office still has more to do ahead of Opening Day, even after signing Duvall. The top priority going forward has to be addressing the middle infield, where Hernandez can capably play everyday, but the top option to be his double play partner is Christian Arroyo. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, in whome Boston reportedly has interest, is the best middle infielder left on the free agent market. That said, Josh Harrison and perhaps even Jurickson Profar remain as potential options at second base and the Red Sox have reportedly explored the trade market for infield help as well.

With Duvall on board, the Red Sox are projected for an Opening Day payroll of about $190MM, with roughly $216MM worth of luxury-tax obligations on the ledger. That cash payroll mark is well shy of the $221MM at which they ended the 2022 season, while the current luxury level leaves about $17MM worth of breathing room before they’d be at risk of paying the tax for a second consecutive season. It should leave Bloom and his staff with some leeway as they continue to search for ways to augment the roster.

Chris Henrique of Beyond the Monster first reported the Red Sox and Duvall were nearing agreement. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported it was a one-year, $7MM deal that could max out at $10MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was first with the incentive details.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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