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AL Notes: Nevin, Angels, Strahm, Red Sox, Twins

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 9:29pm CDT

Angels interim manager Phil Nevin told reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) that he hasn’t yet had any talks with the front office about remaining in the job for the 2023 season. Nevin moved from third base coach to the interim skipper’s role after Joe Maddon was fired in June, and the Angels have a 44-57 record under Nevin’s stewardship, though between injuries and some imperfect roster construction, it can be argued that Nevin hasn’t had much to work with in trying to get the Halos on track.

The manager’s job is one of many questions facing the Angels this offseason, with the franchise’s possible sale acting as the overhanging influence on every decision. There has been some speculation that this uncertainty could benefit Nevin’s chances, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has written that the Angels could prefer to just retain Nevin rather than sign another manager to a multi-year contract this winter (thus leaving a new owner with that deal on the books, when that owner might naturally prefer to make their own choice at skipper). The front office’s lack of contact with Nevin might not necessarily be a sign that he isn’t a candidate, as GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno might just be waiting until the offseason to conduct a proper search.

Michael Kopech Undergoes Knee Surgery

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 7:56pm CDT

The White Sox announced that right-hander Michael Kopech underwent surgery on his right meniscus on Thursday, with The Athletic’s James Fegan reporting that Kopech suffered a tear. According to the Sox, Kopech is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Kopech was already on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation, and he previously missed time in late August and early September due to a left knee strain. His right knee was the issue this time, and Kopech made to make an early exit from a start in June due to soreness in that same knee, with Kopech saying that he felt a small twinge or popping sensation. However, Kopech was on the mound seven days later, and while tests at the time didn’t reveal any structural problems, it is possible the tear developed as Kopech continued to pitch over the rest of the season.

Since Kopech already wasn’t expected to pitch again in 2022, it seems like the decision was made to get the meniscus surgery over with early, to give the righty as much time as possible to recover heading into next season. The team’s statement specified that Kopech wasn’t expected to be facing any limitations when he gets onto the mound at Chicago’s spring camp in February.

Now that Kopech’s 2022 season is officially complete, he can look back on his first season as a starting pitcher as something of a mixed bag. In terms of pure bottom-line results, Kopech had a 3.54 ERA, though he was greatly helped by a .229 BABIP. This good fortune helped Kopech overcome one of the sport’s worst walk rates (11.5%), as well as below-average hard-hit ball and strikeout rates.

In the bigger picture, Kopech’s two IL stints and now this knee surgery add to a health history that is already rather lengthy. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2019, and between that rehab and his decision to opt out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns, Kopech went two full seasons without pitching. The White Sox eased the former top prospect back into things by using him mostly as a reliever in 2021, before stretching him out for 119 1/3 innings as a starter this year.

Provided that none of his recent injuries result in any setbacks, Kopech should be set to build on that innings total as a member of Chicago’s rotation in 2023. He’ll also enter salary arbitration for the first of three trips this winter, and Kopech is slated to enter free agency following the 2025 season.

NL East Notes: Alcantara, Marte, Strider

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 6:15pm CDT

Sandy Alcantara’s season is officially over, as Marlins manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson) today that the star right-hander won’t be pitching in the Marlins’ season finale on Wednesday. Alcantara pitched yesterday and would’ve been lined up to make his 33rd start in Wednesday’s game against the Braves, but Miami will instead close the book on what might end up as a Cy Young Award-winning campaign for the 27-year-old righty.

Over a league-high 228 2/3 innings, Alcantara has looked like an old-school workhorse in a sport increasingly dominated by pitch counts and bullpen usage. Alcantara has a 2.28 ERA, 53.6% grounder rate, and 5.6% walk rate to go along with that big workload, and he earned his second All-Star nod. While Miami is reportedly open to trading from its pitching depth this winter, Alcantara is known be off-limits, as his five-year, $56MM extension signed last November has made him a Marlins cornerstone.

Latest On James Click, Dusty Baker

By Anthony Franco | October 1, 2022 at 5:18pm CDT

The Astros wrapped up the top seed in the American League last night, having already secured 102 wins. It’s Houston’s second straight AL West title and third playoff appearance in as many years under general manager James Click and skipper Dusty Baker. The Astros have advanced at least as far as the AL Championship Series in each of the past two seasons, and the AL road to the World Series will again run through Houston.

Given that immense success, it’d seem to go without saying that Houston was satisfied with the franchise’s trajectory. However, both Click and Baker are in the final year of their contracts, and some uncertainty about the organization’s leadership future looms. Click signed a three-year deal when he took over baseball operations in February 2020, while the club inked Baker to a one-year extension last offseason. Owner Jim Crane told Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link) last month he’s “aware both contracts are up and we’ll address them at the end of the season.”

While there’s no questioning the team’s on-field success, it does not seem a mere formality that both Click and Baker will be retained. During an appearance on the Houston Chronicle’s Texas Sports Nation podcast last weekend (Twitter link), Chandler Rome noted the contract status for Click and Baker “has been a topic that has been whispered about in the Astros organization, people both in and out of the clubhouse, since the beginning of the season.” Rome added that, particularly in Click’s case, “everybody that I talk to (emphasizes) that this is not just a rubber-stamp thing. This is not just, ’we’re going to extend him and everyone’s going to be happy and be merry.’ There is some real speculation, some real intrigue, that James Click is not going to be back with the Astros after this season.”

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined the situation yesterday, writing that some friction between Crane and Click could explain the organization’s hesitance to hand him a long-term extension. According to Rosenthal, Crane has taken on a very active role in baseball operations and tends to favor more bold additions than Click, whose approach to the roster is generally more restrained. Rosenthal notes that Click and Baker sometimes differ on the extent to which analytics should be integrated into in-game decisions but suggests that’s not as notable as whatever divide there may be between Click and Crane.

Both Click and Baker were brought in under unexpected circumstances. After the extent of the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing operation was made public during the 2019-20 offseason, MLB handed down suspensions for then-GM Jeff Lunhow and manager A.J. Hinch. Houston promptly fired both after the league’s investigation. Crane tabbed Baker as Hinch’s replacement, then hired Click out of the Rays front office a few days later. It was a reversal of the typical course of action, in which the front office head plays a key role in deciding on the manager.

Crane has maintained he had no knowledge of the team’s sign-stealing operation. It’s not clear whether he’s subsequently taken on a more active role in baseball operations as a direct response to the fallout from that scheme. Either way, Rosenthal writes that “Crane does not trust Click the way he trusted Luhnow, with whom he worked for eight seasons.”

To be clear, neither Rome nor Rosenthal suggests Click’s or Baker’s time in the organization is definitively nearing its end. The two have adeptly led the team past the sign-stealing fallout with little drop-off in performance. They’re as well-positioned as any club (aside from perhaps the Dodgers) to make a deep postseason run in 2022. Both Rome and Rosenthal point out that it’d seem unlikely Crane makes any changes at the top if the Astros find playoff success this year, particularly if they win the World Series.

It’s nevertheless notable that questions persist given the consistent excellence the Astros have maintained for the past three years. If ownership does decide to tie Click’s and/or Baker’s future to the results of this year’s postseason, there’d be a lot riding on the extremely small sample of a playoff series. That’s not a great way to make decisions of this magnitude, but the reported tension in the Minute Maid Park offices will at least lead to some speculation about the franchise’s direction until Click’s and Baker’s situations are decided at year’s end.

Orioles Planning To Sign New Lease To Remain In Baltimore

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 4:50pm CDT

In a September 1 memo to the Orioles front office, team chairman/CEO John Angelos said that he intends to sign a new lease at Camden Yards that would ensure that the O’s remain in Baltimore over the long term, The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Barker reports. The team’s current lease at Oriole Park at Camden Years expires after the 2023 season, though the Orioles have until February 1, 2023 to exercise a five-year extension that would stretch the lease through the 2028 campaign.

The team made no official comment on the situation, though Baltimore mayor Brandon M. Scott (in a written statement) said Friday that “time and time again about the possibility of the Orioles leaving Baltimore. I have 99 problems but the Orioles leaving Baltimore has never been one. The Orioles are a part of the breath, blood and life of Baltimore.”

John Angelos has also been vocal about keeping the O’s in Baltimore, which has been the chairman’s constant amidst a legal battle within the Angelos family over the last few months. Louis Angelos (like John, the son of owner Peter Angelos and his wife Georgia) recently filed a lawsuit against his mother and brother to try and initiate a sale of the Orioles, while Georgia Angelos filed a countersuit. Peter Angelos has been in poor health for several years, and Georgia will inherit the franchise in the event of Peter’s death, while John has been the organization’s official control person.

The outcome of these legal filings may not be known for some time, and it isn’t entirely certain whether or not anyone in the Angelos family will eventually end up owning the team. As per an August court filing, Georgia Angelos “retained Goldman Sachs and Jones Day to provide investment banking and legal services in connection with the sale of the Orioles,” though this could also relate to the sale of a minority share — past reports have suggested John Angelos is looking to bring a minority owner on board, while the Angelos family would keep overall control of the franchise.

According to the Maryland Stadium Authority, Barker writes that “the legal proceedings aren’t affecting…lease negotiations with the team.” Authority chairman Thomas Kelso said earlier this week that “no inferences should be drawn from the length of time it takes to get an agreement done. It has to be right.”

The five-year extension clause would seemingly provide the organization some extra time to negotiate, if an agreement can’t be reached prior to February 1. Even if the Orioles did enact that five-year extension, there would seemingly not be any reason the two sides couldn’t continue talks about a new lease that would then begin after 2028.

A new lease at OPACY doesn’t only involve the Orioles, given John Angelos’ bigger-picture plans for “redeveloping the Camden Yards Sports Complex into a year-round Live/Work/Play entertainment destination,” as per his memo. Such neighborhood development projects have become common in modern stadium plans, though naturally these more complicated deals must clear several hurdles. In addition to the Orioles, the city of Baltimore, the state of Maryland as a whole, and the NFL’s Ravens (who play at nearby M&T Bank Stadium and share parking facilities with Camden Yards) would all be involved the funding and development of such a so-called ballpark village plan.

Yankees Select Jacob Barnes, Place Zack Britton On 60-Day IL

By Anthony Franco | October 1, 2022 at 2:56pm CDT

2:56PM: Though Britton’s season is over, his time in New York could continue, as ESPN’s Marly Rivera reports that “Britton and the Yankees are already engaged in preliminary conversations” about a new contract.

10:59AM: The Yankees announced they’ve selected reliever Jacob Barnes onto the major league roster. In a corresponding move, veteran southpaw Zack Britton has been placed on the 60-day injured list. His season is over after he left last night’s appearance with shoulder fatigue.

Barnes cracks a major league roster with a third different team of the 2022 campaign. The 32-year-old broke camp with the Tigers and pitched in 22 games, working to a 6.10 ERA through 20 2/3 innings. Barnes only struck out 11.2% of batters faced on a personal-worst 7.7% swinging strike percentage. Barnes did induce ground-balls at a career-best 51.5% clip, but the lack of swing-and-miss led the Tigers to designate him for assignment in June.

The veteran reliever signed a minor league deal with the Mariners and briefly made the major league roster in July. He spent a few days on the active roster but didn’t make an appearance before being let go. Barnes returned to Detroit on a minor league deal, spent a month in Triple-A and then was granted his release. He signed a minor league deal with New York at the end of August and pitched in ten games for their top affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

While Barnes hasn’t had much major league success this season, he’s pitched 18 innings of 2.00 ERA ball at the Triple-A level. Barnes has punched out 32.9% of opponents there against a 9.2% walk rate, and he’s missed plenty of bats at the big league level in years past. He punched out upwards of 30% of opponents with the Angels in 2020 and had an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate as recently as last season.

Because Barnes was in the organization by August 31, he’d be eligible for the Yankees postseason roster. He wasn’t on the 40-man roster at the end of August, but New York can still petition the commissioner’s office for him to be playoff-eligible as an injury replacement for Britton. Injury exemptions are a common occurrence each season, so the Yankees shouldn’t have an issue carrying Barnes for the playoffs if they desire. Now that he’s back on a 40-man roster, Barnes is technically arbitration-eligible for next season, but it’s probable the Yankees will take him off the roster at the end of the year and allow him to hit minor league free agency.

It seems unlikely they’d carry Barnes given his struggles at the big league level this year, but the Yankees pitching staff is navigating a number of injuries. Closer Clay Holmes has a shoulder strain, manager Aaron Boone revealed last night. New York won’t place him on the injured list and rule him out as an option for the AL Division Series, but he’s not expected to pitch again in the regular season. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays that the Yankees are hopeful Holmes will be ready for the start of the ALDS, but it’s hard to know for sure whether that’ll be the case.

Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition Frankie Montas doesn’t look as if he’ll be an option for the ALDS. New York placed Montas on the IL with shoulder inflammation two weeks ago, and Boone said this morning that it appears he won’t be ready for the Division Series (Hoch link). Montas is playing catch today and the Yankees haven’t officially ruled him out for the ALDS, but Boone suggested it’s more likely he’d return as a relief option for the ALCS if the Yankees qualify.

Britton is certainly no longer a playoff option, with the 60-day IL placement ending his year. It could bring an unceremonious end to his four-plus year tenure as a Yankee. Acquired from the Orioles midway through the 2018 campaign, Britton was an elite late-game weapon for his first few seasons in the Bronx. He pitched to a 2.14 ERA over 105 1/3 innings through the end of the 2020 season, including grounders at an incredible 76.3% clip. The Yankees preemptively exercised a $14MM option on his services for 2022 at the end of that year to prevent Britton from triggering an opt-out that’d have allowed him to test free agency.

While an understandable move at the time, that decision proved very regrettable in hindsight. Britton was tagged for a 5.89 ERA in 18 1/3 frames last season, battling injury issues throughout the year. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery last September, an issue that kept him on the injured list until last week. Britton made it back on September 22 and made three appearances, but he walked six of the nine batters he faced before yesterday’s injury.

Britton will hit the open market this winter coming off two virtually lost seasons. His fastball velocity was down in his very brief look this month, and he obviously battled extreme rust from a strike-throwing perspective. The 34-year-old hasn’t seemed fully healthy for two years, which’ll obviously deal a hit to his market value.

Guardians Select Bo Naylor, Activate Zach Plesac, Designate Bryan Shaw

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 1:39pm CDT

The Guardians announced a quartet of roster moves, including the activation of Zach Plesac from the 15-day injured list and the selection of Bo Naylor’s contract from Triple-A. To create roster space, infielder Tyler Freeman was optioned to Triple-A, and right-hander Bryan Shaw was designated for assignment.

This will be Naylor’s first taste of Major League action, as the 22-year-old will get a chance at making his debut in the Show before the 2022 season is over, and the unique thrill of suiting up alongside older brother Josh. The 29th overall pick of the 2018 draft, the younger Naylor is rated as the 58th-best prospect in the sport by Baseball America, while MLB Pipeline has Naylor rated 75th.

It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride for Naylor in the minors, as after posting respectable numbers in his first two pro seasons, he and countless other prospects had to sit out the canceled 2020 minor league season. While Naylor still got some reps at Cleveland’s alternate training site, the lack of proper game action seemed to severely impact him in 2021, when he hit only .189/.280/.332 over 335 plate appearances for Double-A Akron.

Remaining at Double-A to begin 2022, Naylor has now regained his status as a potential catcher of the future for the Guardians. Naylor has hit a cumulative .263/.392/.496 with 21 home runs over 510 PA this season (220 PA at Double-A, 290 at Triple-A). As per Pipline’s scouting report, Naylor got on track “by using a much more disciplined approach and utilizing the opposite field more often,” which also bodes well for his longer-term development as a big league-caliber hitter.

Cleveland has long prioritized defense at the catcher position, and Naylor has also drawn solid reviews for his blocking and framing ability. He could continue the Guardians’ focus on glovework while also bringing some much-needed pop behind the plate, if he delivers on his potential at the MLB level. Naylor is also the rare catcher who has five-tool ability, as he stole 20 bases in 24 chances in the minors this season.

As much as the Guards have relied on young players to fuel their run to the AL Central crown, it probably seems likely that the team will stick with the veteran duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile heading into the postseason. Naylor’s presence does at least give the Guardians another potential option to consider for the playoffs, but this late-season call-up could be more about rewarding Naylor for his big season and taking a look to the future. Hedges is a free agent this winter, so Cleveland could potentially head into 2023 with a tandem of Naylor and Maile (who is still arbitration-eligible), though there has been speculation that the Guardians could make a bigger move at catcher, such as past trade target Sean Murphy.

Plesac will start today’s game against the Royals, as the righty returns after missing just over a month of action. Plesac suffered a fracture in his pinkie finger in rather unusual fashion, as he punched the mound in frustration after allowing a Jake Lamb home run in his last start on August 27.

The injury continued what has been a rough season overall for Plesac, who has a respectable 4.39 ERA over 127 innings but also a slate of unimpressive Statcast numbers. It remains to be seen whether Plesac will get any consideration for a postseason start should the Guardians advance beyond the wild card series, and in the bigger picture, there have been some whispers about whether or not Cleveland could look to trade Plesac this winter. Though Plesac still has all three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, questions about Plesac’s maturity and focus have been asked for the last few seasons, and the Guardians could prefer to sell relatively high on Plesac as a controllable young starter.

The DFA likely brings an end to Shaw’s latest stint in Cleveland, as the veteran righty returned on a one-year, $3MM free agent deal in March. That contract contained a $4MM team option for 2023, yet it already looked like the Guards would instead use their $500K buyout rather than exercise Shaw’s option. The 34-year-old has eaten a lot of innings (58 1/3) out of the bullpen this year, but has a 5.40 ERA and a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate.

This isn’t the first time Shaw has run into some struggles, as his 2021 season helped right the ship after a shaky three-year stretch with the Rockies and Mariners. Returning to Cleveland on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason, Shaw posted a 3.49 ERA over 77 1/3 innings and a league-leading 81 appearances. However, his inability to recapture that form in 2022 now puts Shaw on the outside of the Guardians’ playoff roster plans.

Astros’ Josh James Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 1:23pm CDT

Right-hander Josh James underwent flexor tendon surgery this week, the Astros announced to The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. James was already on the Astros’ 60-day injured list, and his surgery now adds to an injury-plagued few seasons for the 29-year-old.

James has spent his entire career in the Astros organization, after being a 34th-round draft pick in 2014. The righty made his MLB debut with 23 innings in 2018, and then took on a larger role in tossing 61 1/3 innings for the American League champions in 2019. While James’ 4.70 ERA and 13.2% walk rate that season were nothing special, his 97.2 mph velocity and his big 37.6% strikeout rate seemingly made him a live arm to watch in the future.

However, James has only thrown 22 1/3 total innings in the majors since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022. James underwent hip surgery in October 2020, battled hamstring problems that delayed his hip rehab in 2021, and this season has been sidelined by back problems and a right lat strain. Over 27 2/3 innings in the minors this season, James has struggled to a 6.51 ERA and continued to issue too many free passes.

The flexor tendon procedure now creates doubt about James’ potential readiness for the start of Spring Training or the start of the 2023 season. It already seemed likely that Houston would move on from James this winter, as he is due a minimal raise (from his $800K salary in 2022) in his second year of arbitration eligibility. With another surgery now impacting James’ future, he seems like a logical non-tender candidate, though the Astros could look to re-sign him at a lower salary or on a minor league contract.

Marlins Prioritizing High-Contact Hitters This Offseason

By Anthony Franco | October 1, 2022 at 11:22am CDT

For the second straight offseason, the Marlins will head into the winter needing to overhaul their offense. Miami added four everyday players to the lineup last offseason, signing Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García while acquiring Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle via trade. The hope was that quartet would elevate the hitting enough to compete for a playoff spot behind their excellent starting rotation.

That hasn’t panned out. All four of those players underperformed, and Miami’s offensive performance has barely changed. After hitting .241/.308/.386 last season (excluding pitchers), the Fish carry a .230/.294/.363 team line into play Saturday. The dip in raw numbers is partially attributable to the league-wide downturn in offense. By measure of wRC+, the Marlins were 11 points below league average offensively last season; they’ve been 12 points below average this year. That’s obviously not what the front office had in mind, and it’s no coincidence they’ve lost more than 90 games for the fourth straight 162-game season.

Fixing the lineup is certain to be a priority in the coming months, and the Marlins are preparing to attack the offseason in a different manner. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report the team plans to prioritize adding high-contact hitters and faster runners to the roster. According to the Herald, the increased emphasis on bat-to-ball skills is rooted both in the team’s spacious home ballpark and the forthcoming limitations on defensive shifting, which will theoretically slightly improve the league’s batting average on balls in play.

Obviously, the Marlins won’t take so rigid an approach as to rule out adding power hitters entirely. Yet the club’s two big free agent acquisitions last year, Soler and García, are low-contact sluggers. Soler struck out at a roughly average 23.6% clip last year, but he’d fanned in over 26% of his plate appearances in each of the three prior seasons. He’s gone down on strikes 29.4% of the time his first season in Miami. García had struck out at a roughly average level every year from 2019-21, but that’s largely attributable to an extremely aggressive approach that often leads to early-count balls in play. He’d made contact on less than 70% of his swings in each of those seasons, well below the 75-76% league marks. García has struck out in a personal-worst 28.3% of his plate appearances this year.

Both players will be back in South Florida next season. Soler has two years and $24MM remaining on his deal. He can technically opt out after this season but certainly won’t do so after hitting .207/.295/.400 through 306 plate appearances. García is under contract for three more guaranteed years at $12MM annually and is also due a $5MM buyout on a 2026 club option.

Miami will need more production from that duo next season, but they’re not the only high-strikeout players in the lineup. Miami’s 24% team strikeout rate is the fifth-highest in the majors. Of the 16 players who tallied 150+ plate appearances for the team, 11 have struck out at a clip greater than the 22.4% league mark.

It’s sensible enough the Marlins would look for some more balance to their lineup, although it’s apparent that putting the ball in play doesn’t inherently make a player a good hitter. Of Miami’s five hitters with a lower than average strikeout rate, four (Wendle, Stallings, Miguel Rojas and Jon Berti) have been below-average hitters overall. Berti has stolen 38 bases, but he’s slugging just .330. None of Wendle, Stallings or Rojas have an on-base percentage above .300. The only of Miami’s high-contact hitters who has an above-average wRC+ is backup catcher Nick Fortes, who has played in less than half the team’s games.

In any event, it’s clear the Marlins have to find some way to improve the offense. Hopefully getting a full season from star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. would be a great start, but the rest of the lineup has question marks. Soler and García will be back to factor into the corner outfield and designated hitter mix. Garrett Cooper has had another solid season when healthy and could be the primary first baseman, although he’s entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and figures to draw some renewed interest on the trade market after his name came up in rumors this past summer. Wendle, Stallings and Brian Anderson are all arbitration-eligible and could be retained, but they’ll be due raises on this year’s salaries ($4.55MM, $2.45MM and $4.475MM, respectively) if tendered contracts.

Berti seems likely to be retained but is a better fit for a super-utility role than as an everyday option at a specific position. Rojas is a team leader and under contract for $5MM, but he’s coming off his worst hitting season since taking over as the primary shortstop. Young players like Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz have shown flashes of promise but been far too inconsistent overall.

Miami also faces annual payroll questions. While they’re expected to see a boost over this year’s $80MM mark, it isn’t clear how far owner Bruce Sherman is willing to push spending. With over $51MM in guaranteed commitments on the 2023 books and a hefty arbitration class, there may not be a ton of financial leeway for the front office to add in free agency. There’ll still be higher-contact bats available for relatively cheap, of course. Players like Ben Gamel, David Peralta and old friend Donovan Solano — who has reinvented himself as a bat-first utilityman after serving as a defense-oriented second baseman in Miami — will hit the open market and surely won’t break the bank. A run at someone like Brandon Nimmo or even Andrew Benintendi may ultimately prove beyond what the Marlins deem appropriate in free agency, particularly with Soler and García already on the books.

There’s also the likelihood of the Fish again turning to the trade market for help, of course. Miami is likely to explore dealing from its enviable starting pitching depth to address the offense. NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara won’t be moved — Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly relayed this week that Alcantara is “as close to untouchable as you can find” — but players like Pablo López or Braxton Garrett could be dealt for controllable bats.

It’ll be a busy offseason for general manager Kim Ng and her staff. Ng is entering her third winter in that position, but she’s more firmly in control of baseball operations than ever with CEO Derek Jeter and vice president of player development Gary Denbo departing the organization in recent months. The departures of Jeter and Denbo could also explain some of the organization’s philosophical changes in roster construction.

There are additionally going to be some changes in non-playing personnel. The club has already announced skipper Don Mattingly won’t be back next year, and the team made a number of dismissals in their scouting and player development staff yesterday. Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640 first reported that director of professional scouting Hadi Raad was being let go (Twitter link). Jackson and Jordan McPherson at the Herald report that director of player development Geoff DeGroot and five additional members of the professional scouting department have been dismissed.

Braves Sign Charlie Morton To One-Year Extension

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The Braves announced this evening they’ve signed starter Charlie Morton to a one-year contract extension. He’ll make $20MM next season, and the sides tacked on a matching $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign with no buyout. The Braves are one of the few major league teams that announce contract terms.

Morton will stick around for a third season in Atlanta. Originally signed to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason, he’s now signed late-season extensions in each of the past two years. In both cases, they’ve been a one-year, $20MM guarantee with a matching team option. Atlanta could’ve simply exercised the $20MM option for 2023 in Morton’s previous contract, but their preemptive agreement with the Wasserman client tacks on an additional option for the ’24 campaign.

There’s clearly a mutual comfort between the team and the 15-year MLB veteran. He’s been a durable and effective member of the starting rotation, avoiding the injured list during his first two campaigns in Atlanta and starting 63 regular season contests. He made another four starts during the 2021 postseason. That didn’t end the way he’d have hoped personally, as Morton broke his right leg during his World Series start and had to be scratched from the roster. The club went on to defeat the Astros to secure the title, though, and Morton was back in action by the start of this season.

During his debut campaign in Atlanta, Morton worked to an excellent 3.34 ERA across 185 2/3 innings. He’s not been quite that effective this year, tossing 167 2/3 frames of 4.29 ERA ball heading into his final start of the season. The two-time All-Star’s strikeout rate has been almost identical in each season (28.6% in 2021, 28.4% this year), and he’s not shown any signs of physical decline. Morton has averaged 94.9 MPH on his four-seam and 81.2 MPH on his go-to curveball this season, not far off last year’s respective 95.5 MPH and 80.6 MPH marks.

It’s a similar story on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Morton has generated swinging strikes on 12.3% of his total offerings in both seasons. That’s above this year’s 10.7% league average for starters, and Morton has held a swinging strike rate in the 12% range for five straight years. Even with his 39th birthday less than two months away, Morton hasn’t lost anything from his raw arsenal or his ability to miss bats.

The biggest contributor to his overall dip in production was an atypical struggle to throw strikes early in the season. Morton walked 11 batters in four starts in April, surrendering 14 runs in 18 innings. He’d mostly found his footing from a command perspective by the time the calendar flipped to May. In 26 starts since May 1, he owns a 3.97 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a manageable 8.2% walk percentage. He’s held opposing hitters to a .218/.301/.384 line over that span. Morton was excellent between June and August before hitting another rough patch this month, posting a 5.27 ERA in five September starts.

The Braves aren’t much concerned about either his early-season control woes or a couple recent tough outings at the hands of the Mariners and Phillies. Morton’s velocity and strong strikeout and walk profile give plenty of reason for optimism he can remain an above-average starter next season, even as his ground-ball rate has dipped to a personal-low 39.7% clip.

Morton, meanwhile, seems content taking a year-by-year approach to his playing career. A longtime back-of-the-rotation grounder specialist with the Pirates, Morton reinvented himself as a strikeout artist with the Astros in 2017. After spending two seasons in Houston, he signed a two-year free agent deal with the Rays before what’ll be at least three consecutive seasons as a Brave. He’s reportedly set geographic limitations during his recent potential free agent trips, preferring to stay in the Southeastern part of the country to be closer to his family.

Of course, the Braves have far more than just locale to make them an appealing place to pitch. Morton remains part of a stellar roster that has the team on the verge of 100 wins and firmly in contention for another NL East title. He’s among a strong rotation led by star rookie Spencer Strider, All-Star Max Fried and breakout hurler Kyle Wright. Veteran Jake Odorizzi has occupied the fifth rotation spot since being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline, but Atlanta also has rookie Bryce Elder and prospect Freddy Tarnok as promising depth options.

That entire group could return for 2023. Strider, Fried and Wright are all under club control. Odorizzi has to decide whether to trigger a $12.5MM player option or take a $6.25MM buyout and test free agency. Elder and Tarnok are controllable, as are former top prospect and mid-rotation arm Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Kyle Muller and Huascar Ynoa (although Ynoa is unlikely to pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery recently).

That’s a number of options, reducing the urgency for the club to look outside the organization for rotation help. Signing Morton to an extension also continues the front office’s habit of trying to preserve as much of the current core as possible. Atlanta has also signed Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II to long-term deals this year, in addition to previous extensions for Ronald Acuña Jr., Travis d’Arnaud and Ozzie Albies.

Locking in another $20MM to next year’s books brings the team’s guaranteed commitments north of $165MM (assuming Odorizzi exercises his option), in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s before considering the possibility of extending impending free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson or accounting for arbitration salaries for Fried, Soroka and high-leverage reliever A.J. Minter. It’s virtually certain they’ll top this year’s franchise-record $178MM Opening Day payroll, but it’s evidently comfortable territory for the Liberty Media ownership group on the heels of last season’s title and another forthcoming postseason trip that’s certain to include at least two home playoff games.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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