Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox finally made it back to the postseason this year, though their third place finish in the AL East and a quick exit in the Wild Card Series at the hands of the Yankees leaves fans hoping for more in 2026.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Garrett Crochet, LHP: $166MM through 2031 (deal includes conditional $15MM club option for 2032; can opt out after 2030)
- Roman Anthony, OF: $125MM through 2033 (deal includes $30MM club option for 2034)
- Brayan Bello, RHP: $50.5MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on $21MM club option for 2030)
- Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF: $47MM through 2032 (includes $4MM buyout on $19MM club option for 2033, deal includes $21MM club option for 2034)
- Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/2B: $46MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2032)
- Masataka Yoshida, DH: $36MM through 2027
- Jordan Hicks, RHP: $24MM through 2027
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP: $13.3MM through 2026 (includes $300K buyout on $13MM vesting option for 2027)
- Patrick Sandoval, LHP: $12.75MM through 2026
- Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $8.25MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on $8.25MM club option for 2027, deal includes $10.5MM club option for 2028)
Option Decisions:
- Alex Bregman, 3B: Will opt out of $80MM through 2027 ($40MM deferred)
- Trevor Story, SS: Can opt out of final $50MM through 2027. If opt out exercised, Red Sox can either void it by exercising $25MM club option or pay Story a $5MM buyout.
- Lucas Giolito, RHP: $19MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout.
- Liam Hendriks, RHP: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout.
- Jarren Duran, OF: $8MM club option with $100K buyout. Eligible for arbitration if option is declined.
Total 2026 commitments: $168.9MM
Total future commitments: $662.4MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM
- Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM
- Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (if club option declined)
- Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
- Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
- Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
- Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
- Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Lowe, Houck, Wong, Winckowski
Free Agents
Much of Boston's offseason will be dictated by the opt out decisions made by the left side of the club's infield. Alex Bregman is already expected to opt out of his contract and return to the open market, but it's not yet clear whether or not Trevor Story will follow in those footsteps. With no locked in starter at second base and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow unwilling to commit to Triston Casas at first base for next year, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Red Sox are looking to reshape their entire infield as they look for defensive upgrades.
At the very least, they'll need to either re-sign or replace Bregman. Re-signing the veteran coming off his third career All-Star appearance may prove to be the most sensible course of action. While he'll be seeking a true long-term deal this winter as he heads into his age-32 campaign, it would be difficult to find the sort of production Bregman offers elsewhere. Just three third basemen (Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Isaac Paredes) posted a higher wRC+ than Bregman's 125 this year, and Fangraphs' Def metric pegs Bregman as the seventh-most valuable defensive third baseman in baseball this year despite a quad injury limiting him to just 114 games.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- Almost seven and a half months after the Dodgers and Cubs squared off in Tokyo, the 2025 MLB season will officially end today.* But, almost as importantly as Game 7, it’s also time for the final Weekend Chat of the 2025 season!
*= I guess it could technically end on November 2 if Game 7 goes past midnight, but what are the chances the Dodgers and Blue Jays play some crazy extra-inn…..oh wait
World Series Prediction
- Who you got? Blue Jays win 4-3 or Dodgers steal the show?
Mark P
-
Who wins Game 7?
Blue Jays (65.3% | 548 votes)Dodgers (34.6% | 290 votes)
Total Votes: 838
AA
- Do I sign cease or king this offseason?
Mark P
- Leaning towards no, since the Braves under Anthopoulos haven’t pursued longer-term pitching contracts. Cease is also a Boras client, and AA generally doesn’t do business with Boras on a free agent level.
King is an interesting option for a somewhat shorter-term contract with opt-outs involved. It depends on how his market shapes up since there’s still a very good chance he lands a big multi-year deal anyway, but if he doesn’t want to fully commit himself after a shortened 2025 season, he and his reps might be open to more creative contracts. This might open the door to a team like Atlanta to get involved.
Hang over
- So will the first day of free agency be crazy after the World Series is completed? Which teams do you see making the most waves?
Mark P
- Free agency doesn’t begin until five days after the final game of the WS. The offseason in general starts immediately, however, so I’d expect a lot of news on options being exercised/declined, maybe a couple of trades, maybe the Padres/Rockies/Braves announce their new manager or GM, etc.
Dean
- Who’s the splashiest surprise (ala Eflin, HSK) FA signing you could see the Rays making? Realmuto?
Mark P
- It’s hard to see the Rays outbidding Philly for Realmuto. I can also assume that Realmuto probably feels the Phillies are closer to winning in 2026 than the Rays are, so that’s not likely to be an option for him.
Projecting free agent moves for Tampa is difficult since when they do strike, it tends to be somewhat out of nowhere. Nobody saw them as suitors for Kim, for instance. Bringing in an Eflin type of innings-eater might be a good move this winter due to the injury uncertainties in their rotation.
BrianM
- Does Pete resign with the Mets?
Mark P
- Leaning towards no. I think it took a particular set of circumstances to reunite Alonso and the Mets last winter, and it feels like the Mets only have a certain price point for Alonso in mind. Coming off a much better platform season, Alonso likely isn’t in the mood to take any kind of shorter-term pact this time around.
Santiago Espinal Elects Free Agency
TODAY: As expected, Espinal rejected the outright assignment and chose to become a free agent, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.
OCTOBER 31: The Reds announced today that infielder Santiago Espinal has been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. That indicates he cleared waivers in recent days. He has the right to elect free agency and will presumably do so in the coming days.
It’s common for clubs to clear roster space at this time of year. The offseason will begin in the coming days, which means the injured list goes away. Players on the 60-day IL will need to retake roster spots, though some players are also heading to free agency. The Reds don’t have a super tight roster crunch at the moment. RosterResource pegs them at 38 guys for the start of the winter, though picking up options on Brent Suter and Scott Barlow could have got them back up to 40. Espinal’s removal drops them to 37, not including Suter or Barlow.
Even if the Reds don’t strictly need a roster spot right now, there’s value in opening one. Perhaps some interesting players will be put on waivers by other clubs in the coming days. The Reds will also presumably want to add a few players to the roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Espinal wasn’t going to be long for the roster anyway. His performance has been declining for a while now. He could have been retained for the 2026 season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.9MM salary, but the Reds were going to non-tender him.
The infielder had some decent results with the Blue Jays a few years ago, even making the All-Star team in 2022, but he hasn’t done much since then. He has stepped to the plate 973 times in the past three years with a combined .245/.298/.325 line and 71 wRC+. That includes a .243/.292/.282 line and 58 wRC+ in 2025.
At his best, Espinal can play multiple positions while hitting lefties. As recently as last year, though his overall offense was poor, he slashed .289/.344/.491 for a 122 wRC+ against southpaws. He was still better against lefties in 2025 but hit only .265/.317/.342 for a wRC+ of 81.
Assuming he elects free agency, Espinal could get interest from clubs for a bench/utility role, either on a minor league pact or a modest big league deal. He has experience at all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Kris Bryant Still Bothered By Back Pain, Not Considering Retirement
Kris Bryant has played in only 170 games over his four seasons with the Rockies, and the 2025 campaign saw Bryant appear in just 10 games before his recurring back issues brought his season to an early close. Lumbar degenerative disc disease has left Bryant feeling pain while performing basically every baseball activity not related to swinging, and the former NL MVP told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, and this discomfort has now extended to his day-to-day life.
“It’s exhausting for me waking up and hoping to feel [better],” Bryant said. “I can’t tell you the last time I woke up feeling I’m in a good spot….If you asked me two or three months ago, I would say [my back pain] was not affecting my everyday life. But now it is, which is really annoying to me because usually when you kind of just rest, it’s supposed to get better. So maybe I’m at a point where I should just do a bunch of stuff to see if that helps me.”
Bryant has already explored multiple avenues to try and fix his back, including an ablation procedure last May. He isn’t currently doing any baseball activities, as Rockies head trainer Keith Dugger has Bryant on a regular Pilates regiment in order to help reinforce his core. However, it remains to be seen if this treatment or anything will be able to get Bryant back on a path to regular on-field action, which is still his goal.
“That’s the thing that eats at me the most. It’s tough to describe,” Bryant said. “I’ve played this game for 30 years now, not professionally, of course, but it’s all I have ever known….But watching the playoffs and seeing some of my friends still playing, that gives me the motivation to try and play. So I don’t have those conversations [about retirement], thank goodness, because I don’t want to. I just want to be a baseball player.”
Three years and $78MM remain on the seven-year, $182MM free agent deal that Bryant signed with Colorado during the 2021-22 offseason. The signing can unfortunately be considered one of the biggest misfires in free agent history, given how little has Bryant has played, and his lack of production when he has played (.244/.324/.370 and 17 home runs over 712 plate appearances in a Rox uniform). The Rockies’ horrific 231-417 record over the last four seasons is far from Bryant’s fault alone, yet his contract has become somewhat symbolic of this low point in the franchise’s history.
A pivot point may be coming since the Rockies are searching for a new head of baseball operations, and focusing on external candidates in an attempt to finally bring some fresh ideas and new perspectives into the organization. Given the lack of progress with Bryant, it is hard to call his situation a top priority for the incoming new executive, as there seemingly isn’t much to do besides hope that Bryant can get healthy enough to play.
Working out a deferred payment plan for the remainder of the contract may be the eventual outcome for Bryant and the Rockies, since he naturally isn’t going to retire outright and walk away from the money still owed. However, Bryant (who turns 34 in January) isn’t ready to pursue that avenue yet, and only he knows when enough will be enough from a physical and mental standpoint.
Orioles Sign Luis Vazquez To Major League Contract
The Orioles announced that infielder Luis Vazquez was signed to a Major League contract for the 2026 season. Vazquez was already controlled for 2026 as a pre-arbitration player, but this transaction gives Vazquez a bit more roster security (for now) and probably gives him a small bump over the minimum salary was slated to earn next year.
The signing bears some similarities to Baltimore’s deal with Rico Garcia, which was also announced on Thursday. In essence, Vazquez’s big league deal and Garcia’s split contract are meant to deter teams from claiming either player on waivers, should the Orioles designate either for assignment this winter. The two situations aren’t exactly similar since Vazquez has minor league options remaining while Garcia is out of options, but both players can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency should they get DFA’ed and then outrighted off the 40-man roster.
Vazquez (who turned 26 last month) came to the Orioles from the Cubs in a cash transaction last January, and then was designated and outrighted off Baltimore’s roster just a week later. His contract was selected by the O’s in June, and he ended up appearing in 32 MLB games in 2025, with a .160/.208/.240 slash line to show for 53 plate appearances. Vazquez did hit his first big league home run, which ended up being the game-winning run in the Orioles’ 3-2 win over the Astros on August 24.
Known as an excellent defender, Vazquez might be able to carve out a bench spot in the Show on his glovework alone, and he’ll get some consideration for the Orioles’ utility infield position during Spring Training. However, he’ll have to deliver something more at the plate than his .404 OPS over 67 career big league plate appearances. His work at Triple-A has been much more respectable, as Vazquez has hit .252/.340/.408 over 839 career PA with the Cubs’ and Orioles’ top affiliates.
Latest On Lucas Giolito
Right-hander Lucas Giolito had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025 but it ended on a frustrating note as he wasn’t included on Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Sox were eliminated, manager Alex Cora said Giolito was most likely not going to be coming back this year. Today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive provided an update on the righty’s status. Giolito has been on a throwing program with one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”
Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he is about to return to free agency. He originally signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season, a two-year deal worth $38.5MM. Giolito had a chance to opt out of that deal after 2024 but he ended up missing that entire season due to UCL surgery, so he naturally decided to stay with Boston for the second season.
By foregoing that opt-out chance, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that to a $19MM mutual option by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He got to 145 frames this year, successfully converting it. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, with the last instance being more than a decade ago at this point. As such, Giolito will almost certainly get the $1.5MM buyout instead.
There’s a long winter ahead but Giolito’s health in the near term is important. As pointed out by Cotillo, the Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue Giolito a qualifying offer, which is a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. That’s roughly what the Sox have been paying Giolito annually on his two-year deal, so it’s not a huge spike.
However, there are reasons why the Sox may not feel comfortable with continuing to pay Giolito a salary in that range. The obvious one is the elbow. It has been previously reported that Giolito has no UCL damage but does have flexor irritation and a bone issue. If the Sox felt that injury could linger into 2026, then they may prefer to walk away.
The other issue is Giolito’s performance. The Sox initially bought low on him. He was a borderline ace a few years ago, earning Cy Young votes in three straight years from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA spiked to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those poor seasons, he struck out more than 25% of batters faced. That was a drop from his peak, when he was striking out around 33% of opponents, but it was still above average.
In 2025, Giolito managed to finish strong in the ERA department but without getting his strikeouts back. He had a solid 3.41 ERA for the year overall. He had a rough 6.42 ERA through seven starts but then an excellent 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts. However, even in that latter sample, he was only punching out 20.3% of opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in 2025 was 21.8%. That figure is probably inflated a bit by the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still fairly middling.
The other issue is that the reward for making a QO may be lesser than in the past. The Sox got the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta rejected a QO and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Sox did not pay the competitive balance tax. Both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimate that the Sox went slightly over the tax line in 2025. Those are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, then the QO compensation pick would fall to after the fourth round of the draft if Giolito were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere.
Giolito likely would have started a playoff game for the Sox if he were healthy. He and Brayan Bello were the most established options behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and rookie Connelly Early made starts alongside Crochet. Cotillo suggests the Sox are quite happy with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even with some concerning numbers and the lesser benefit from making the QO, perhaps they will do it anyway if they would be happy for him to accept. Though even if they like Giolito, they may not want to tie up $22.025MM of their budget just as the offseason is beginning, especially if Giolito’s elbow is still an issue.
A bit of progress in the next few days could increase Boston’s willingness to issue the QO. It may also increase his willingness to turn it down and explore the market. Even if they do offer it, he gets a couple of weeks to talk to other teams and gauge his market before making his decision on the QO. His market with non-Boston teams will depend both upon his health and whether or not he is attached to a QO.
Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images
Lucas Gilbreath, Aaron Schunk Elect Free Agency
The Rockies outrighted infielder Aaron Schunk and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath off their 40-man roster, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. Both players had been outrighted before in their careers and exercised their right to elect free agency.
There’ll be plenty of waiver movement as soon as the World Series ends. Teams need to activate everyone from the injured list and get their roster counts down to 40. The Rockies were already positioned to do so with Germán Márquez, Thairo Estrada, Kyle Farmer and Orlando Arcia hitting free agency. They’ll only need to reinstate Kris Bryant and Jeff Criswell from the injured list.
Colorado had also tried to sneak reliever Dugan Darnell through waivers this afternoon, but the Pirates intervened. Dropping Schunk and Gilbreath gets them down to 37 players. There could certainly be a few more cuts once they finalize a GM hire. Colorado has top priority on the waiver wire, which they should leverage to churn the back half of the roster next week.
Schunk and Gilbreath will each look for the second teams of their careers. Colorado drafted Schunk in the second round in 2019. The Georgia product has had brief MLB stints over the past two seasons. He has fanned 41 times in 131 trips to the plate, batting .222/.246/.302 over 55 games. The righty hitter owns a .291/.348/.468 line over parts of three seasons at Triple-A Albuquerque.
While that’s a solid line on the surface, it’s below average after accounting for the extremely hitter-friendly environment. The 28-year-old Schunk is a good defensive third baseman with a plus arm but hasn’t found much consistency at the plate. He was a two-way player with a mid-90s fastball at Georgia but hasn’t pitched in pro ball. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible another team would be intrigued to see if he’s willing to try his hand on the mound again.
Gilbreath, 30 in March, was a seventh-round selection back in 2017. He had a couple productive seasons as a middle reliever/setup man between 2021-22. He underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training ’23 and has barely been a factor since returning from the operation. Gilbreath made three MLB appearances late last year. He only pitched once in the big leagues this past season, striking out two while allowing an Alexander Canario home run in a mop-up inning in Pittsburgh on August 22.
Colorado optioned Gilbreath back to Albuquerque at the end of that game. He gave up a 7.59 earned run average with poor strikeout and walk numbers over 42 2/3 innings in the minors. Before the surgery, Gilbreath had a 93-94 MPH fastball and an 81-82 MPH slider that served as an excellent secondary pitch. The fastball dropped to 92 in 2024 and backed way up this year, as he was in the 89-90 MPH range. The breaking ball has also lost nearly three ticks relative to the pre-injury level.
Ian Gibaut Elects Free Agency
October 31: As expected, Gibaut elected free agency on Friday, according to the MiLB.com transaction log.
October 28: Reds reliever Ian Gibaut has been activated from the 60-day injured list and sent outright to Triple-A Louisville, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. The right-hander had been on the IL with a right shoulder impingement. Gibaut has over three years of service time, so he can reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency.
The 31-year-old has pitched in parts of four seasons with the Reds from 2022-25. In 137 2/3 innings with Cincinnati, he has posted a 3.92 ERA with a roughly average 22.5% strikeout rate and a below-average 9.3% walk rate. The highlight of his tenure was Gibaut’s 2023 season, in which he had a 3.33 ERA in 75 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen and allowed hard hits at a rate of just 31.8%, well below the league average of 38.2% among qualified relievers that year. Unfortunately, Gibaut made only two appearances the following season as he underwent surgery for a nerve issue in his forearm. The Reds non-tendered him in November 2024, but re-signed him to a minor league contract in January 2025.
In 25 1/3 innings across 25 appearances this year, Gibaut had a 4.62 ERA but did not miss many bats, with a mere 13.2% strikeout rate. Some of that can be attributed to injury, as his season was interrupted by two separate trips to the IL, the first coming at the end of April. Gibaut also appeared to be working with diminished stuff, as his average fastball velocity declined from 95.2 mph in 2023 to 94.0 mph in 2025 (he only threw two innings in 2024). However, he still did well at limiting hard contact with a hard-hit rate of 33.7%. He also lowered his walk rate to 7.3%, which graded out better than league average.
Robinson Chirinos Will Not Return As Orioles Bench Coach
The Orioles will not retain bench coach Robinson Chirinos for the 2026 season, reports Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Kostka writes that Chirinos technically remains under contract but is pursuing opportunities elsewhere.
That’s common practice when teams make managerial changes. Chirinos was hired just last offseason to replace Fredi González as Brandon Hyde’s top lieutenant. That lasted all of six weeks into the regular season. Baltimore fired Hyde after starting the season with a 15-28 record. While many teams promote their bench coach to interim manager after a midseason firing, the O’s opted for third base coach Tony Mansolino in that role.
This was Chirinos’ first season on an MLB staff, so it’s not surprising that the Orioles opted for a fifth-year coach in Mansolino for the rest of the year. They tabbed Guardians associate manager Craig Albernaz as their permanent skipper earlier this week. An external managerial hire usually results in an overhaul of the coaching staff. The O’s already moved on from assistant hitting coaches Sherman Johnson and Tommy Joseph. There hasn’t been official word on the statuses of any others.
The 41-year-old Chirinos should be able to find a coaching position with another club. The former catcher was a respected clubhouse leader over a playing career that spanned parts of 11 seasons. Chirinos played for six teams, including the Orioles, and spent the majority of his career with the Rangers.
Bo Bichette Doesn’t Expect To Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Bo Bichette has played through a sprained PCL in his left knee during the World Series. He’s clearly physically limited but has picked up five hits (all singles) with three RBI in 18 trips to the plate.
Of course, Bichette’s focus for the next day or two will be fully on the World Series. He did address the injury before tonight’s Game 6, telling Ben-Nicholson Smith of Sportsnet that he does not expect he’ll need to undergo offseason surgery. Bichette suffered the injury in a collision at home plate with Yankees catcher Austin Wells on September 6. He was out of action for almost seven weeks before making his return for the Fall Classic.
Bichette would clearly still be on the injured list if this were the regular season. However, he has gotten to a point where he can hit and make routine defensive plays. The Jays moved him to second base while keeping Andrés Giménez at shortstop to slightly reduce his defensive workload. They used him as a designated hitter in Game 5 after George Springer tweaked his side. However, Springer has improbably returned for tonight’s game and is back at DH. Bichette heads out to the keystone again.
The 27-year-old infielder (28 in March) is days away from becoming a free agent for the first time in his career. He’s widely viewed as the second-best player in the class behind Kyle Tucker. The knee injury might add to the already present questions about how long he can be expected to stick at shortstop. There’ll be teams that prefer Bichette as a second baseman, but he’s an annual threat to lead the league in hits and is coming off a .311/.357/.483 batting line in the regular season.
Bichette spoke with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic about his decision to play through the injury earlier this week. He acknowledged that he’s “not really expecting to make huge progress” in the healing process while he’s playing. Bichette nevertheless stated that he’d “risk it all” to win a World Series. He demurred on the free agency question this evening. Bichette admitted at today’s pregame media scrum that while he has thought about his future at times this season, he has “got a World Series to win” right now (video via TSN).